Ep. 2100 - SYRIA FALLS - The Ben Shapiro Show

Podcast Summary: Ep. 2100 - SYRIA FALLS on The Ben Shapiro Show

Release Date: December 9, 2024
Host: Ben Shapiro
Platform: The Daily Wire

1. Introduction to the Collapse of the Assad Regime

Ben Shapiro opens the episode with groundbreaking news: the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. He emphasizes the significance of this event, detailing how Syrian rebels successfully took control of Damascus and Bashar Al Assad’s palace over the weekend. Assad has reportedly fled to Moscow, seeking asylum with Russian support[^00:00].

“The Assad regime is no more. Assad has fled to Moscow where he is being granted some sort of asylum because the Russians, of course, backed the Assad regime.” [00:02]

2. Historical Context and Geopolitical Landscape

Shapiro delves into the complex history of Syria, highlighting that the nation is an artificial construct created by Western powers post-World War I. This artificiality has led to ingrained instability, with numerous religious and militant groups vying for power.

Regional Borders and Influences:
- Israel: Syria's southwestern border with Israel has been contentious, especially over the Golan Heights, which Israel annexed in 1967 with U.S. recognition[^05:30].
- Lebanon: Syria's long-standing interference, particularly in the 1980s with Hezbollah, destabilized Lebanon[^10:45].
- Iran and Russia: Both nations have historically supported Assad, aiming to maintain their strategic interests in the region[^15:20].
- Turkey: Led by Erdogan, Turkey has aggressively opposed Assad, supporting rebel groups to expand its influence[^20:55].
- Jordan: A fragile Sunni Arab state threatened by regional volatility and influxes of refugees[^25:10].

3. Timeline of the Syrian Civil War and Assad’s Downfall

Shapiro provides a detailed chronology of the Syrian Civil War, underscoring key events that led to the current collapse of Assad’s regime.

2011: The civil war erupts as Assad cracks down on protests, labeling dissenters as Sunni Al Qaeda affiliates[^30:00].
2012‑2013: Rise of ISIS and the formation of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), a radical Al Qaeda and ISIS offshoot supported by Turkey[^35:15].

“By 2013, Sunni terrorists are totally in the lead of the opposition. Whatever sort of moderate elements there were to the anti-Assad rebellion were basically gone.” [35:44]
2015‑2017: Increased involvement of Russia and Iran in propping up Assad, leading to massive destruction in cities like Aleppo[^40:25].
2024: The culmination of prolonged conflicts and external pressures results in the swift overthrow of Assad[^45:00].

4. Current Geopolitical Dynamics Post-Assad

With Assad ousted, Syria is now fragmented into various territories controlled by different factions:

HTS (Hayat Tahrir Al Sham): Led by Abu Mohammed Al Jelani, HTS has seized significant areas, including Damascus[^50:10].

“Unexpected and swift. His victory marks one of the most dramatic moments in the Middle East that had no shortage of drama.” [50:25]
Kurdish Forces: Maintain control over northeastern Syria, holding strategic positions against ISIS resurgence[^55:40].
Turkish Forces: Occupy northwestern Syria, creating a substantial buffer zone[^60:05].
Israel: Focused on defending its borders, especially against potential threats from new rebel groups[^65:30].

5. Analysis of Winners and Losers

Losers:
- Russia: Severely weakened due to ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, unable to support Assad[^70:00].
- Iran: Massive setbacks as key allies like Hezbollah and Assad are dismantled[^75:15].
  
  “Iran has lost its entire crescent of Islamic Shia terror. Like it's gone. It just doesn't exist anymore.” [75:30]
Winners:
- Turkey: Expanded its territorial control and influence within Syria[^80:45].
- HTS and Radical Groups: Gained significant power, though posing long-term instability[^85:20].
- Israel: Successfully dismantled Iranian proxies, ensuring enhanced security[^90:05].

6. Future Implications and Regional Stability

Shapiro speculates on the potential future scenarios in Syria and the broader Middle East:

Continued Civil Strife: With multiple factions vying for control, the region remains prone to further conflict[^95:40].
Turkey’s Aggression: Erdogan may intensify military actions, especially against Kurdish forces[^100:10].
Iran’s Predicament: Facing internal collapse or forced negotiations, Iran’s future is precarious[^105:30].

“As Iran decides they're going to launch a multi-front terror war against Israel, Israel will hit back and hit back hard.” [110:45]
International Response: The Trump administration advocates for minimal U.S. involvement, focusing instead on supporting strategic allies like the Kurds and ensuring Israeli security[^120:00].

“The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out.” [125:15]

7. Economic and Domestic Factors Influencing the Region

Shapiro touches upon the economic collapse within Syria, noting the hyperinflation and the Assad regime’s inability to sustain its military without external aid[^130:20].

“Assad is basically being propped up by outside forces. [...] Their currency is effectively worthless.” [135:40]

8. Concluding Remarks: A Cautionary Outlook

Ben Shapiro concludes with a stark warning about the ongoing instability in Syria, emphasizing the absence of viable solutions and the perpetuation of regional chaos.

“There are no good answers in the Middle East. [...] It's a rough region of the world and there are a lot of bad people fighting a lot of other bad people as a general rule.” [140:55]

He underscores the importance of strong defense and alliances, cautioning against naive interventions that ignore the complex web of regional interests and hostilities.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

On the Fall of Assad:

“The Assad regime is no more. Assad has fled to Moscow where he is being granted some sort of asylum because the Russians, of course, backed the Assad regime.” [00:02]
On HTS Leadership:

“Unexpected and swift. His victory marks one of the most dramatic moments in the Middle East that had no shortage of drama.” [50:25]
On Iran’s Decline:

“Iran has lost its entire crescent of Islamic Shia terror. Like it's gone. It just doesn't exist anymore.” [75:30]
On U.S. Involvement:

“The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out.” [125:15]
On Regional Chaos:

“There are no good answers in the Middle East. [...] It's a rough region of the world and there are a lot of bad people fighting a lot of other bad people as a general rule.” [140:55]

Key Takeaways

Assad’s Regime Ends: After a prolonged civil war and the withdrawal of essential allies like Russia and Iran, the Assad regime has collapsed, leading to a power vacuum in Syria.
Fragmented Syria: Multiple factions, including HTS, Kurdish forces, and Turkish-backed groups, now control different regions, increasing the likelihood of continued conflict.
Geopolitical Shifts: The weakening of Iran and Russia alters the power dynamics in the Middle East, with Turkey emerging as a dominant regional player.
Future Instability: The absence of a stable, unified governance structure in Syria and the ongoing clashes between various groups suggest that peace remains elusive.
U.S. Foreign Policy: Advocates minimal involvement, focusing on supporting strategic allies while avoiding deep entanglement in Syria’s internecine conflicts.

Conclusion

Ep. 2100 - SYRIA FALLS provides an in-depth analysis of the seismic shifts occurring in Syria and the broader Middle East. Ben Shapiro meticulously breaks down the historical, geopolitical, and economic factors that have culminated in the fall of one of the region's most enduring dictatorships. With Assad's removal, the region stands at a crossroads, facing uncertain futures marked by fragmented power structures and the resurgence of extremist groups. Shapiro’s insights underscore the complexities of Middle Eastern politics and the challenges inherent in seeking lasting solutions amid entrenched conflicts and competing national interests.