Ben Shapiro (35:54)
I mean, the thing that's different this time is that you, you have a Palisades fire that has burned 23,000 acres, has been burning for seven days, and is 17% contained, and your mayor was out of town in Ghana. I mean, I feel like there are a few distinctions. By the way, the fire warnings are now extending pretty much all the way up the coast through Malibu, all the way towards Santa Barbara at this point because the winds are still picking up. They're gonna pick up again today, and there's a lot of dry tinder in those particular areas. Mayor Bass, for her part, she issued an executive order Monday that seeks to expedite rebuilding efforts. Executive Order 1 requires city departments to complete project reviews within 30 days from when a complete application is submitted. It's hilarious how they all become Republicans when they actually want to build something. Until then, however, they will continue to quash actual livability in the state of California on behalf of trees and the homeless. All right, in just one second, we'll get to Israel and Hamas, supposedly on the verge of a quote, unquote, ceasefire deal. First, history is about to be made. The Daily Wire will be live from Washington, D.C. to bring you every moment as Donald Trump is sworn in as 47th President of the United States. It's not just an event, it's a movement. We're making sure you're front and center for all of it. To celebrate, we're giving you 25% off new daily Wire, plus annual memberships. With your membership, you'll get exclusive access to our ad, free uncensored shows, plus a growing library of hit movies, original series and groundbreaking documentaries that are reshaping culture. Join the fight today. Use code DW25@DailyWire.com subscribe for 25% off right now. Meanwhile, with President Trump entering the White House, it appears that Israel and Hamas, the terrorist group that is currently holding 100 hostages, about 70 of those are supposedly alive and they're holding the bodies of 30 others. There is a deal that is going to release hostages. It's being characterized by some as a cease fire deal. It's being characterized by others as a hostage release deal. There's no question that President Trump's threats of all hell breaking loose on Hamas are leading Hamas to try to Make a deal before Trump enters office with, with the Biden administration acting as broker. There's also no question that President Trump and his team would like a headline that says that hostages walk out of Gaza because of President Trump during the first week of his brand new administration. And so pressure has been brought on Israel without a doubt, to come to the table and make some sort of deal. The way that this deal stacks up is not something that I particularly like. I think the deal is not good. But that is because my belief is that if Israel does not in fact make the Strip quiescent, if Israel does not retain control over the Gaza Strip, then they are setting themselves up for further failure. I also think that the generalized math in which Israel has participated, this is Israel's own fault for decades, which basically says they will trade terrorists, like living, actual murderous terrorists for innocent people who are taken hostage, leads Israel's enemies to take hostages. That is just the logic of hostage deals. So with all of that said, the following premises lead to a deal. One, Israel was always going to make some sort of deal to try and get its hostages out because Israel sees it as paramount to get those hostages out alive. Two, Hamas was never going to allow all the hostages out because if they do, they lose their leverage and they know it. So essentially, by taking hostages, Hamas always to a certain extent, had Israel over the barrel. And the only question was gonna be how many terrorists did Israel have to give up to get some of his hostages back. Right now the calculus seems to be 33 live hostages coming out over the course of the next six weeks, led by women and children. Again, Hamas is perhaps the most evil terrorist group on the planet. They're literally holding a one year old hostage. This is what Hamas does. And then the goal would be, if you're Hamas, to get to phase two, which would be a further negotiation that would allow for, quote, unquote, the end of the war, which would mean Israel would withdraw most of its troops, if not all of its troops, from the Gaza Strip. And Hamas would like to then reconstitute inside Gaza. Israel is not going to allow that. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he's not going to allow that. From the Trump administration's point of view, what they want is the hostages out as soon as possible. And so the question as to whether this deal is good or whether it is bad is really a question of what happens after phase one. And this is very much like what happened very early on in the war. There was a hostage deal that delayed further Israeli action by Something like three weeks before it broke down and Israel went back into the Gaza Strip to continue mopping up Hamas, the same thing could happen right here. Hostages could be released. There are a bunch of things that Israel is called upon to do that are very negative militarily. That would include withdrawal from the so called Netzarim corridor, which is a corridor, a land corridor that goes basically bisects the Gaza Strip in an east west direction and allows for Israel to break up movement from terrorists from the south to the north where there are more weapons stockpiles. This deal would also limit Israel and their ability to police the so called Philadelphia Corridor, which is the smuggling corridor between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, which is how Hamas got all of its weapons. Terrorists would be released. Those terrorists are supposedly going to be released to Qatar and Turkey, both of which hate Israel and are perfectly willing to allow those terrorists to move back into the Gaza Strip at first available opportunity. So this is a serious security danger to Israel. If it weren't, Hamas wouldn't be doing the deal. That is why Hamas is going to the table. And yes, they're also going to the table because they fear that if they don't, they'll get a much worse deal under President Trump who will come in and then quote, unquote, unleash all hell, which would presumably mean allowing Israel to to participate in much more severe fashion in mop up operations in the Gaza Strip. According to Reuters, negotiators are meeting in Qatar hoping to finalize details of a plan to end the war in Gaza. Steve Witkoff is the Middle east envoy. He seems to be working very closely with the Qataris. That's not something I'm perfectly comfortable with since Qatar has very often acted as a sort of cutout for Iran. With that said, some sort of deal was probably going to get cut here. The only question was just how bad for Israel. There's been some talk about the possibility that the Netanyahu government is going to fall. That appears very unlikely. So Netanyahu does have to get a majority of his government of the Knesset to actually go along with the hostage deal. That would include his own coalition. If his own coalition drops off the hostage deal and decides to walk out of the government, then his government falls and new elections are called in Israel. Netanyahu is betting that won't happen. He appears to be correct in that bet. So he has two parties that are to the right of him in his coalition in Israel. One of them is the party Otzma Yehudit, which is led by it'sMar Ben Gvir, who's probably the furthest right person in the Israeli government. The other is led by Batshel Al Smotrich. Bazal Al Smotrich has a smaller party than Ben Gavir. Smotrich represents a lot of the so called settlers, people who are living in Judea and Samaria who really don't like the deal. A disproportionate share of Israeli soldiers who've been killed in this war come from Judea and Samaria, are coming from the areas that have elected but tell us Motric so they don't like the deal. Smotrich is hesitant to topple the government because he recognizes that if that happens, he's probably not likely to sit in the next coalition government in Israel. Ben GVIR could single handedly topple the government, but instead he seems to be demagoguing the issue. He's basically saying I'll only walk out if Smotrich walks out, which is a great way for him to avoid walking out of the government. So it appears right now as though some sort of deal is going to go through before President Trump becomes president. Trump will get the headline correctly that says that his presidency brought about the release of of these hostages. And then the question as to whether this is a livable deal for Israel or whether it threatens Israel and other American allies because reconstitution of Hamas in the Gaza Strip would be quite bad, that question is going to come down to further implementation of the deal, apparently. According to Reuters, Hamas is accepting verbal agreements to possibly talk to agree about a ceasefire nearing the end of the war. And what that seems to me is Hamas operating from a position of absolute weakness. According to the Wall Street Journal, both sides seem galvanized by the prospect of Trump's return to office. The incoming president said a week ago all hell will break out in the Middle east if the hostages aren't released by the time he takes office on Monday, repeating a threat he had made earlier. He hasn't explained what he means. Last week he said it wouldn't be good for Hamas or frankly for anyone. Trump said on Monday to Newsmax that his deal was very close to get to getting done. He said there's been a handshake. They're getting it finished maybe by the end of the week. Asked what turned the tide in recent days, an Israeli official said, quote, the Trump effect. And that official said Trump's gonna get credit no matter what if the deal actually gets done. Now, again, the fact that the Biden administration is working well with Steve Witkoff makes me think this is not a particularly amazing deal for the west or for Israel generally. But once again, it was Israel that made a priority to get back its hostages and was willing to trade terrorists for those hostages. If Israel had taken the position for from the get go that they were not going to sacrifice military priorities in favor of the hostages, that would've changed the math. But as long as they need to get the hostages back, terrorists were gonna go free. And Israel's gonna have to make moves that compromise its own national security. That's just sort of the reality of the situation. Again, this had all been forecast a little bit earlier this week. J.D. vance on the Sunday shows had suggested that all hell means that basically Israel will be given a freer hand. Hamas knows that's coming, and that's one of the reasons they're being pushed to the table. They're getting a better deal under Biden than they would under Trump.