Transcript
Ben Shapiro (0:00)
Well, folks, yesterday was Liberation Day and we are going to go through everything tariff related you could possibly imagine. First, your reminder. We exist to cut through the noise and bring you the unpleasant facts that others will not. Uncensored, ad free daily shows, investigative journalism, live chats with my producers, breaking news first, no filter, no nonsense. The Daily Wire is where the real story lives. Go to DailyWire.com subscribe and join the fight today. Okay, so yesterday, President Trump declared that it was in fact one Liberation Day. He said, this is our economic declaration of independence. And I want to start with his announcement yesterday. And then I want to talk about what it is that he actually announced because the markets are getting rocked and there's a reason they are getting rocked. Here was President Trump yesterday in the Rose Garden celebrating Liberation Day. To be fair, he had warned everybody a month in advance that he was going to do this sort of thing. Here he was.
Donald Trump (0:49)
My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day waiting for a long time. April 2, 2020, will forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn, the day America's destiny was reclaimed, and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. This is one of the most important days, in my opinion, in American history. It's our declaration of economic independence.
Ben Shapiro (1:23)
Sounds cool. Sounds cool. So how are we going to actually do that? Well, here's the thing. The President's vision of international trade is, I am sorry to say, mistaken. The President seems to believe that international trade is a zero sum game. Here is the President explaining that actually the United States is a victim of everyone else when it comes to international trade over the past several decades.
Donald Trump (1:44)
Nearly a century later, in the face of unrelenting economic warfare, the United States can no longer continue with a policy of unilateral economic surrender. We cannot pay the deficits of Canada, Mexico and so many other countries. We used to do it. We can't do it anymore. We take care of countries all over the world. We pay for their military, we pay for everything they have to pay. And then when you want to cut back a little bit, they get upset that you're not taking care of them any longer. But we have to take care of our people and we're going to take care of our people first.
Ben Shapiro (2:16)
So he's actually making a separate case here, which is that people should pay their own way when it comes to their welfare and defense spending. Totally agree, 100%. That is absolutely true. Also, that has literally nothing to do with what the President of the United States did yesterday. It seems to be predicated his giant Tariff policy that he just dropped on the market unilaterally, probably unconstitutionally, yesterday. And I'll get to that in a moment. It's predicated on a few false notions about the American economy. One is that the American economy has been a giant fail for the last 40 years. That is simply not true. This is a myth that is propagated by both parties. And I know it's a fun myth. It's something people like to believe, is that yesterday was economically better, better than today. And then you look at all the stuff around you, and you look at the phone in your pocket, and you look at the computer before you. You look at the Internet, you look at the fact you can literally order any product at any time from anywhere on Earth, and it arrives at your doorstep in two days at a price you can afford. And you think to yourself, would I rather live in 1980, when the only person with a cell phone was Gordon Gekko on a beach holding a shoebox to his head, when central air conditioning was kind of a rarity, when the cars, if you were lucky, had electric windows? Okay, was that, like, better? Were things better just on an economic level? Forget about everything else. They can make a case about the spiritual level. You can make a case about the dissolution of the family. I agree with many of those cases. But we are talking here about economics. We're not talking about the life of the spirit within. We're talking about economics, which is the distribution of goods and services. So I need to start by showing you a few charts that show you that America, in fact, does not suck and has not sucked for several decades economically. Because this is a myth that all politicians like to tell. Hey, number one, there is this notion that American deindustrialization has been happening, that America has been hollowed out by deindustrialization, that we are not actually manufacturing anymore in this country. That is not true. It is not True. In the mid-90s, the United States was producing in real manufacturing value added. In 1997, we were producing $1.4 trillion. In 2025, we're producing $2.4 trillion. And it is an arithmetic increase. You can see the line on this chart. We are manufacturing more. Why aren't there more manufacturing jobs? The answer is technology. We are manufacturing more because we have better robots. And they are doing much of the work that people seem to have a very warm and fuzzy feeling about, but that they would never want to do themselves. I noticed a lot of people, why can't I have a factory job just like 1955 Ford or something. Yes, I'm sure that you want it to be in a non air conditioned factory, riveting all day. That just sounds like you. That's most Americans. That, that's, that's your ideal job. No it isn't. It isn't. Just like working in a coal mine isn't your ideal job either. Hey, here's another chart. We've been told the lie that the American middle class has been hollowed out by international trade. Here is what actually happened to the American middle class over the course of the last several decades. The American middle class stayed approximately the same ties shrank a little bit. Why did it shrink? Why did it shrink? Not because people became lower middle class or poor, but because a huge number of Americans went into the upper middle class. The number one change in the status of American families in terms of income from just before 1980 to about 2015 was a 16 percentage point increase in the upper middle class. In other words, people got richer. And by the way, everyone got richer, including the poor. Because the stuff you can get as a poor person in America in 2025 is way the hell better than the stuff that you could get as a poor person in America in 1980. That's just a reality. How about wages? We keep hearing that wages are stagnant, that they stagnated since 1979. Here, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a chart. It shows you the average hourly earnings of production and non supervisory employees. And it shows you what happened to wages between 1980 and 2025. And what you see is a steep increase from the 1990s and up a very steep increase. Now I know this cuts against the conventional political wisdom, which is the American economy sucks and it's because everybody is cheating us. Now one of the things that President Trump is predicating his tariff war upon is, is the idea that trade deficits are inherently bad. A trade deficit is where we import more stuff than we export in terms of value. Now as I pointed out before, you have a trade deficit with literally every business that you do business with unless they're buying your product. So I have a trade deficit with my local publics, a large trade deficit. They have bought pretty much nothing from me and I bought tens of thousands of dollars over the years from my local publics. Clearly they are screwing me. Or maybe they're not because I'm getting value for my dollar in the form of food and supplies. Or maybe I should go over my Publix and just beat the living out of the general Manager. I don't know one of those two things. Trade deficits are a. They're an accounting procedure, trade deficits. You label something in export and you label something in import, but trade itself is about mutual benefit or you wouldn't do the trade in a voluntary system. So the idea that every trade deficit, someone is getting screwed is a zero sum view of how economies work. And it's not true. As Thomas Sowell points out, the eminent economist, quote, if the goods and services available to the American people are greater as a result of international trade, then Americans are wealthier, not poorer, regardless of whether there is a deficit or a surplus in the international balance of trade. In fact, I can name you a period in American history where there was a fairly large surplus in America's balance of trade. The entire Great Depression. Now, there were times in American history that were great where we also had a surplus. There were times in American history that sucked where he had a deficit and times in American history that were great where he had a deficit. As it turns out, trade deficits have pretty much nothing to do with the health of an economy. They don't tell you very much. In fact, the French economist Frederick Bastiat, who's really cutting about this stuff, writing in the 19th century, he said, look, if you're so worried about trade imbalances, then actually what you should do is you should sink ships filled with your own exports before they ever get to the other side. So if we're exporting oranges to Europe and they're going to send us apples in return, the best way to ensure that no trade imbalance takes place is we should send our oranges out of the country and we should sink the ship before it ever gets to Europe. So they can't send us apples back. Then we have a large export on our ledger and no imports. Great idea. The economy will be stronger. So a fundamental misunderstanding of trade deficits. And again, that's not balance of payments. It's a different thing. Balance of payments is about the flow of gold. We're no longer on a gold standard, but it's about currencies and all that. Trade deficits are a different thing. The reason I'm bringing up trade deficits is because this is how President Trump is calculating his Liberation Day tariffs. According to the Washington Post, President Trump said Wednesday he will impose a new 10% tariff on all imported goods, along with higher import taxes tailored for each of about 60 countries his advisors say maintained the largest barriers against US products and a sharp turn toward the kind of protectionism The United States abandoned nearly a century ago. So President Trump said that for decades our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far, both friend and foe alike. This is not going to happen anymore. So let's take a look at the Liberation Day quote, unquote, reciprocal tariffs. Okay, so here I have a chart. President Trump held it up, yelled like a big chart, like Wheel of Fortune or something. He held like a big chart that showed reciprocal tariffs. And what it said was in one column, the names of the countries. In another column, tariffs charged to the United States, including currency manipulation and trade barriers. And then USA discounted reciprocal tariffs. So his idea is, here is the tariff rate that a country is charging us and then we're going to take half that rate and charge it to them. There is only one problem. There are many problems. There's only one problem here. What is labeled the tariffs charged to the United States is not, in fact, the tariffs charged to the United States. It is not true. Is not true. Because I looked at this and I thought, Holy crap, the EU is charging us 39% tariff rates on all products. We're exporting stuff there and they're charging a 39% tariff. That's what this chart says. Japan is charging us 46% tariffs. Malaysia is charging us. Cambodia is charging us 97% tariffs. And then I thought to myself, self, I said, that doesn't sound correct to me. That doesn't sound right at all. In fact, that's. That sounds totally wild. I mean, that's. That, that can't be true. And so I made the mistake of actually looking up some of these statistics. What are the actual average annual tariff rates that are charged on American goods by countries like, for example, Japan or Taiwan, which this chart says is charging us a 64% tariff rate. And it turns out there is zero correlation whatsoever. Those are not, in fact, the tariff rates that are being charged on American goods going into Taiwan or Japan or India or any of these other places. It's just not right. Well, listen, I don't love these tariffs, as you may have noticed, but Doge continues to do some good things like cut the fad from decades of bloated government spending and corruption. PureTalk, the cell phone company I use for business every day, they're cutting the fad from the wireless industry. 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According to this chart, for example, Madagascar is charging us 93% tariffs, and we ought to charge them 47% tariffs. Hey, that's what it says. That's what the thing says. There is only one problem with this that is not remotely true. And if we have a trade deficit with Madagascar, then so the hell what? It's Madagascar. The GDP per capita in Madagascar is like $530 a year. Our trade deficit with Madagascar is a few million dollars. Is the idea. We have to chisel out of the people of Madagascar extra dollars for American products or we are getting screwed by the great and powerful people of Madagascar. Is that the idea here? It makes zero sense. It literally has nothing to do with the actual tariff rate. How do we know this? We have perfect proof. Yesterday, Israel, which already had almost no tariffs on the United States, 99% of all goods coming into Israel had no tariff on them from the United States. That was something that Israel did in the 2000s because they used to have high tariffs. And what ended up happening is that Israelis would come to the United States, load up their bags with a bunch of American made goods, and then take them back with them to Israel to avoid the tariffs. So Israel just got rid of all the tariffs. Yesterday, Israel announced zero tariffs on any American goods. The Trump administration hit them with a 17% tariff anyway, claiming that they had a 33% tariff rate on American goods, which clearly is not true. Why? Because it turns out that we buy more stuff from the Israelis than the Israelis buy from us. Shocker. They're a smaller country. We're a giant market, not a giant shock, as it turns out. So this is pretty crazy because it turns out the trade deficit has nothing to do with the tariff rates. So we are punishing countries that have a low tariff rate with us. For example, like South Korea is listed on this chart as having a 50% tariff rate on us. The average tariff rate South Korea has on American goods according to the World trade organization is 0.79%. We have a free trade agreement with South Korea. It is listed on this chart as 50%. That's nonsense. It's not true. It just isn't true. And it leads to a 25% reciprocal tariff on all South Korean goods. Now, there are a number of reasons why this is a problem. Okay, whatever. Who cares? But you know, you know, do we need other countries? Okay, so first of all, yes, we do. It turns out that the supply chains all across the planet are incredibly complex. And if you like the products that you have at the quality that you have them and the price that you have them, you're not going to get to keep them. You don't get to keep the. Anybody who tells you that you can is. Is telling you the same kind of falsehood that Barack Obama said when he said, if you like your doctor, you can keep your doctor. You don't get to keep your Xbox at the same rate with the same quality. You don't. That's just not the way that these tariffs are going to work. So what exactly happens? Well, Tyler Cowan points out, quoting Scott Lincecum over at Cato, Trump's reciprocal tariffs impose hundreds of billions of dollars in new taxes on Americans without public or congressional input. Because that's actually what happens. I have friends, for example, who import product to the United States and then sell them, is why? Because they can't get the product in the United States. So, for example, I have a friend who's in the jewelry business, and this friend in the jewelry business imports products that are not capable of being manufactured or found in the United States from abroad. So it's not like there's import substitution. You can just buy from an American. That's not how it works. This, by the way, this company is an American company. The tariff that is now being applied to all of his imports is like 35, 40%. Those prices will get passed directly on to the consumers. It is a tax paid for by Americans. So this is a massive tax increase on American consumers. That's what it is, and it is designed to be so. And it is talked about in these terms by the Trump administration that this will cost 600, $700 billion in additional revenue to the government. You know what we call revenue to the government, typically paid for by Americans, because that's who pays for it. If you're importing a product and nobody buys it, then you stop importing the product and nothing gets paid to the government. It has to be sold. That is, the consumer pays the tax. That is what we would call a tax increase. These secret calculations that are not so secret anymore because it turns out that actually they just have nothing to do with. With tariffs at all. Those calculations are nonsensical. This idea that President Trump is doing this based on. Based on legislation that suggests that there is a national emergency on the basis of trade deficits. No. The answer is no. This is in the purview of Congress. There is no national emergency that justifies a unilateral tax increase of the size that the administration is attempting to levy down on the basis of a trade deficit. Because we buy more stuff from Madagascar than the Madagascar buy from us. That is not a good reason to declare a national emergency because it ain't a national emergency any more than it's a national emergency that I buy more stuff from my publics than they buy from me. By the way, this There are already free trade commitments that are now being bro breached by the Trump administration. We have free trade commitments many of the countries that we are currently slamming with tariffs. Again, it's going to cost American consumers. It will cost American producers who use inputs from other countries. And most importantly of all, if this is supposed to somehow screw, for example, the Chinese, precisely the opposite is about to happen. Why? Because many of the countries that are about to get absolutely hammered are countries that exist in Southeast Asia. So if you want to know what the actual tariff rates are that these various Southeast Asian nations are charging the United States, the answer is not what President Trump is putting up there, which again is rooted in the trade deficits that we supposedly have with these various nations. If you want to know the answer, I did. So I asked my friends at Perplexity, sponsors of the show, what are the actual effective tariff rates Southeast Asian nations have against American goods? Not the Trump statistic, which is rooted in trade deficits. Also, please make a chart correlating the trade deficit or surplus those countries have with the United States with their GDP per capita. So according to Perplexity, the actual effective tariff rates imposed by Southeast Asian nations on American goods very significantly across countries, the figures cited by the Trump administration appear to be exaggerated and based on trade deficits rather than real tariff structures. According to the WTO, Vietnam's average most favored nation tariff rate is approximately 9.4%. Now remember, according to the Trump statistic, the average tariff rate that's being charged by Vietnam, the effective tariff rate is 90%. So 10 times what the actual tariff rate is is what the Trump administration is claiming. Asian nations like Indonesia, Malaysia impose average MFN rates, most favored nation rates of 7.5% and 5.6% respectively. Those numbers are far lower than the inflated numbers presented by the Trump administration. Now as to trade deficits that we have with these various countries, the answer is cuz they're poor, they generate cheap product like in Vietnam. Your T shirt's probably made in Vietnam and they have no money. So we run a $95 billion trade deficit with Vietnam, their GDP per capita is $4,200. $4,200. Okay, so what are we gonna do? Chisel that out of them? Precisely. That $95 billion trade deficit. Because we want to buy their T shirts. Same thing with, say, the Philippines. We have a $5 billion trade deficit with the Philippines, and the GDP per capita in the Philippines is 3700 bucks. Meanwhile, Singapore, right, which Singapore is getting hit with a 10% tariff, by the way, for no reason, because we actually have a trade surplus with Singapore. They have a $10 billion trade deficit with the United States. How can Singapore afford that? I mean, aren't we just screwing them? I mean, obviously, according to this logic, we're screwing them. If they have a trade deficit with us, must be that we're jobbing them in some way. The reason that they can have a trade deficit with us is because. Wait for it. Their GDP per capita is $72,000. Say again. None of this is. Is rooted in economic reality. And the biggest problem is there's no way to sort of get out of the box that's been created by these statistics. Because if you were saying lower your tariff rates, and if the tariff rate is already zero or close to it, where do you go from there? So one of the things that happened during the pandemic is knowing that the Chinese were bad actors. Many producers started shifting their supply chains out of China and into other nearby countries, like, for example, Vietnam, believing the United States would punish China, but not Vietnam. Well, now the new tariffs slam Vietnam with a 46% tariff. So why don't you shift your production back to China? More importantly, if you're the EU and you're now getting wrecked by the United States with a gigantic tariff, or if you're Canada and you're getting absolutely ravaged by an American tariff, you need markets for your goods. Where are you going to go? Maybe to a country that is perfectly willing to militarize capitalism on behalf of fascism. The Chinese. The Chinese are about to make extraordinary inroads in Southeast Asia. They're about to make extraordinary inroads in Europe and in Canada, because it turns out when America withdraws from the world and basically declares a trade war on literally everyone, including, by the way, an island with no people. I'm not even kidding. This is a thing. Included in the list of places that President Trump is going to tariff. I wish I were kidding. I'm not kidding. Included in this list is, in fact, the herd and McDonald Islands. We are hitting the herd in McDonald's Islands. A 10% tariff you heard at McDonald island include zero people. Includes penguins. We're hitting the pe. Screw them. Penguins. Penguins. Stupid penguins. Okay, so it. What exactly is this designed to do? Again, it is predicated on a bad idea of how international trade works. If I've said this a thousand times, this is not coming from a place of I want Trump to fail. It's coming from a place of if he engineers a recession based on these sorts of tariffs, which seems increasingly likely, if you were to stick with this, if you were to do that sort of thing, all of the amazing things that need to happen and that he is pursuing and that his administration is filled with good people who want to do all that stuff goes by the wayside. A bad economy kills everything around it. It is the neutron bomb of politics. If you drop the neutron bomb of politics, a recession, into the lap of this administration, it doesn't just destroy this administration's economic agenda, it destroys the administration wholesale. That is what happens in American politics. Recessions destroy administrations and by the way, everyone close to them, all the tech bros get destroyed. All of the business people get destroyed. It's really important not to self engineer a bad economy. Really quite important. It's. It is frustrating at the very least because this has not been well justified by literally anyone, including members of the Trump administration. JP Morgan put out its forecast quote on a static basis. Today's announcement would raise just under $400 billion in revenue, or about 1.3% of GDP, which would be the largest tax increase since the Revenue act of 1968. We estimate that today's announced measures could boost pce prices by 1 to 1.5% this year. We believe the inflationary effects would be mostly realized in the middle quarters of the year. So in other words, inflation will start ticking up again fairly significantly. The resulting hit to purchasing power could take real disposable personal income growth in both the second and third quarters into negative territory. And with it the risk that real consumer spending could also contract in those quarters. This impact alone could take the economy perilously close to slipping into recession. That's before anyone else tries to punish us for punishing them. This is before, according to J.P. morgan, accounting for the additional hit to gross exports and to investment spending, headlines about retaliatory measures by U.S. trading partners are already coming out. We expect to learn more in coming days. The somewhat confusing nature of today's news, coupled with uncertainty over how long these tariffs will remain in place, should make for an even less friendly environment for investment spending. We plan to revisit our forecast later this week. By the way, you know who else is upset? The manufacturers. This was supposed to save the manufacturers, right? You heard President Trump say it. We are going to bring manufacturing back to the United States. Here is a statement from the national association of Manufacturers President and CEO Jay Timmons. Quote needless to say, today's announcement was complicated and manufacturers are scrambling to determine the exact implications for their operations. The stakes for manufacturers could not be higher. Many manufacturers in the United States already operate within margins. The high cost of new tariffs threaten investment, jobs, supply chains, and in turn America's ability to outcompete other nations and lead as the preeminent manufacturing superpower. Manufacturers build things in America to sell around the world. And manufacturers in America share President Trump's goal of supporting manufacturing investment, growth and expansion here at home. To empower manufacturers to drive the economy, the administration should minimize tariff costs for manufacturers investing and expanding in the United States. Ensure tariff free access to critical inputs. Manufacturers use secure better terms for manufacturers by negotiating zero for zero tariffs. 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