Summary of The Ben Shapiro Show - Ep. 2176: "MOTHER OF ALL TARIFFS: The Tariff War Has Begun"

Release Date: April 9, 2025

1. Impact of Tariffs on Financial Markets

The episode opens with Ben Shapiro addressing the immediate repercussions of the newly implemented tariffs on the U.S. financial markets. He notes significant declines in major indices, attributing the downturn to the sudden imposition of tariffs across numerous sectors.

"Unsurprisingly, the markets started the day down in pre-markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down almost a thousand points. The S&P 500 was down about 2% as well." [00:00]

Shapiro emphasizes that the tariffs are not a short-term stock market maneuver but a consequential policy affecting real businesses and consumers. He references Benjamin Graham’s analogy, suggesting that the market is transitioning from a "voting machine" to a "weighing machine," where the real impact of policies like tariffs is beginning to materialize.

2. Rationales Behind the Trade War

Shapiro delineates the two primary rationales driving the Trump administration’s tariff policies:

• Reciprocality for Zero Tariffs: Aimed at compelling other nations to eliminate tariffs, fostering free trade.

  "This is sort of Elon Musk Scott Bessent idea. If we're going to do a trade war, the goal is to get everybody to come to the United States on bended knee." [02:50]

• Restrictionist Policy to Bolster Domestic Manufacturing: Utilizing tariffs to protect and strengthen American industries by making imported goods more expensive.

  "Tariffs make America rich. We need to tax other goods from other countries in order to prop up domestic manufacturing." [03:05]

Shapiro criticizes President Trump for simultaneously promoting both rationales, leading to market uncertainty.

3. Administration's Mixed Signals and the Off Ramp

The discussion shifts to the concept of an "off ramp," a strategy proposed by Commerce Secretary Scott Bessant to mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs through quick negotiations and deals with trading partners.

"What you're hearing from one camp is take the off ramp, get some good deals." [05:35]

Caroline Levitt, the White House Press Secretary, corroborates this approach by highlighting the eagerness of nearly 70 countries to negotiate favorable trade terms with the U.S.

"Countries are falling over themselves to reform their unfair trade practices and free open their markets to our country." [06:32]

4. Internal Administration Conflicts

Ben Shapiro highlights the internal discord within the Trump administration, particularly between tariff advocates like Peter Navarro and those favoring more strategic, gradual approaches such as Oren Cass and Elon Musk.

"There is a battle inside the administration between Peter Navarro and Elon Musk." [19:19]

Navarro remains steadfast in his approach, advocating for aggressive tariff policies to address trade deficits, whereas figures like Cass and Musk push for negotiated deals to prevent economic fallout.

5. Public and Political Reaction

Polls indicate waning public support for the tariff policies, with a majority of Americans anticipating price increases and expressing opposition to the tariffs.

"73% of Americans expect that prices are going to rise under President Trump's tariff plans. Only 4% say prices are going to go down." [23:02]

Within the Republican Party, some members from swing districts express concerns about the tariffs potentially jeopardizing their political standing ahead of the midterm elections.

"At least a dozen House Republicans are now considering signing on to Representative Don Bacon's bill to restrict The White House's ability to impose tariffs unilaterally." [39:07]

6. Impact on Industries and Energy Sector

Shapiro delves into the tangible effects of tariffs on various industries, particularly the automotive and energy sectors. Major automotive companies are halting exports to the U.S., leading to factory shutdowns and layoffs.

"President Trump's 25% tariffs on imported vehicles are already sending tremors through the auto industry." [38:37]

In the energy sector, tariffs have contributed to a decline in oil prices, undermining domestic oil production and posing challenges for expanding American energy resources.

"Oil prices have fallen to hover around $60 a barrel, a nearly four-year low. At that price, fossil fuel companies will most likely reexamine their plans." [38:37]

7. Risks Associated with the Current Tariff Policy

Shapiro outlines two significant risks stemming from the current tariff approach:

• Alienation of Trade Partners: Imposing tariffs indiscriminately can push key allies towards economic alliances with China, thereby weakening U.S. influence.

  "If you alienate all these countries and then you smack China, China is going to go to them and offer them a warm hand." [32:46]

• Provocation of Aggressive Responses: Overly aggressive tariffs could embolden China to take hostile actions, such as seizing Taiwan, thereby destabilizing global economics and security.

  "Why at that point would not China go for taking Taiwan, figuring it's got nothing to lose if you box them in so strongly?" [32:53]

8. Recommendations and Conclusions

Ben Shapiro advocates for a strategic recalibration of tariff policies, urging President Trump to prioritize negotiated deals ("off ramps") to alleviate economic strain and restore market confidence.

"Take the off ramp. Mr. President, please take the off ramp because I want you to succeed." [38:37]

He warns against the continuation of broad, punitive tariffs, emphasizing the necessity of a clear, goal-oriented policy that supports reindustrialization without causing widespread economic disruption.

"Good policy requires a goal. What is the end game here?" [37:00]

Shapiro concludes by stressing the importance of maintaining strong global alliances and avoiding hasty tariff implementations that could inadvertently bolster China's economic and geopolitical standing.

"The United States remain like, by the way, you actually stack the odds against yourself when you declare trade war on the entire world." [40:28]

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Ben Shapiro:
  "The tariffs hit last night at 1201am." [00:00]
  "We're going to be honest with you. We are not going to BS you." [00:00]
  "Good policy requires a goal." [37:00]

• Scott Bessant:
  "We're going for an off ramp. So, for example, here was Scott Bessant early yesterday saying, you're gonna see some big deals fast." [05:35]
  "The president had a very good call. Yesterday with Prime Minister, with the Japanese prime minister that led to these negotiations." [06:08]

• Caroline Levitt:
  "Countries are falling over themselves to reform their unfair trade practices and free open their markets to our country." [06:52]
  "These are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs." [24:33]

• Oren Cass:
  "You're right leaning industrial policy. He has a piece today titled Stop Freaking Out. Trump's tariffs can still work." [07:15]
  "If the United States is going to reduce its trade deficit quickly without painful cuts to domestic consumption, it's going to have to increase production capacity just as quickly." [32:42]

• Peter Navarro:
  "Vietnam is a great example, Laura. They sell us $15 for every one we sell them. Zero tariffs would get us no reduction in the $123 billion deficit we have." [20:45]

Conclusion

In this episode, Ben Shapiro critically examines the Trump administration's aggressive tariff strategies, highlighting the resultant economic turmoil, internal policy conflicts, and the broader geopolitical implications. He advocates for a measured, goal-oriented approach to trade negotiations, emphasizing the importance of maintaining strong international alliances and minimizing economic disruptions for American consumers and industries.