Transcript
Ben Shapiro (0:00)
Well folks as always, tons of news. A fire hose of news. But you need a reliable source for your news. You need a conservative source for your news. The legacy media, they think that you are too dumb to see through their lies. They like to twist the narrative or manipulate the headlines or bury the truth. We don't do that at the Daily Wire. We are going to bring you the facts with no filter or no spin and then you get to get in on the conversation. Join the live chat during Our Daily Shows 100 uncensored ad free packed with fans who actually think for themselves. Get the news the way it should be. Honest, fearless, without an agenda. Your voice matters. Be a part of it. Join now@dailywire.com subscribe all right, so yesterday the US economic report came in. Q1 GDP is down. The biggest danger to the Trump administration and their agenda is very clearly an economic downturn by far. It's not particularly close. I've been saying this now for months. If there were to be an economic downturn under President Trump, the rest of the very important agenda items that he is pursuing, everything from illegal immigration to wiping DEI out of the federal government, everything from rebuilding the United States military to doge, all of it goes out the window if the economy falls. Because the way the American people think about politics is quite simple when it comes to presidents and the economy. If the economy is good, the president gets the credit. If the economy is bad, the president gets the blame. It is really that simple. Well, yesterday the GDP report came in and it showed negative GDP growth. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth is typically termed a recession, sort of technical terms. Now obviously Americans are feeling very skittish about the economy in general right now and feelings unfortunately don't care about your facts when it comes to the economy very often. Sometimes people feel worse about the economy than it actually is. Sometimes they feel better about the economy than it actually is. But all of those feelings tend to make themselves actually heard in the economic statistics eventually, because people are buying and selling and doing all of these things based on what they feel their own personal financial status is. According to the Wall street journal, the US economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of the Trump administration's tariffs and consumer spending slowed. The Commerce Department said U.S. gDP fell at a seasonally and inflation adjusted 0.3% annualized rate in the first quarter. That was the first contraction since the first quarter of 2022. Consumer spending did increase at 1.8%. That is the smallest increase since mid 2023. Spending by the federal government fell, but the main driver of the first quarter contraction was, wait for it, the tariff war. Of course. Of course. It turns out everyone has been on the edge of their seats. It's a roller coaster, this tariff war. At best, investors have pulled their money out. If in fact they are spending, they are attempting to beat the tariffs to the table. They're essentially buying things, stocking up on imports before the tariffs hit net exports, the difference between what the United States imports and Exports subtracted nearly 5 percentage points from headline GDP. This was the biggest quarterly drag from net exports on record dating back to 1947. So basically, imports actually radically increased because everybody was trying to get in under the wire before all the tariffs kicked in. Imports subtract from the Commerce Department's calculation of GDP because they represent the spending on foreign made goods and services. So does this mean the economy is. Is weak? It doesn't. The economy is not, in fact weak, weak. The economy, in the absence of the trade war, remains fairly robust at this point. Not like 5% GDP robust, but ready to grow. Deregulation and tax cuts without the trade war and you'd have a booming economy right now. Which is why I've been saying Peter Navarro needs to be fired. Just let Scott Besant run this ship, that's all. Just let it happen. Because of lack of faith in the American economy, de dollarization continues. This is foreign economies moving away from investment in the American dollar. According to Axios, the US dollar index in Trump's first 100 days fell 9.5% compared to a 2.1% drop in the first 100 days of his term. The value of the Greenback increased by 4.5% in George W. Bush's first 100 days when the country was headed into recession and rose slightly for both Obama and Biden. So as recession fears rise, investors are actually moving away from the dollar. There's just less need for it if the feeling is that trade is going to decline. Why exactly would you invest in American dollars if you can't use those American dollars to buy American goods, or if American companies are going to be hurt by their lack of export markets. So when we're talking about the value of the American dollar and what actually has happened under President Trump, de dollarization is a really dangerous thing to articulate that. I asked our friend sponsors over at Perplexity, what would the impact be on American economics of de dollarization and perplexity? Says de dollarization refers to the process of. By which Countries reduce their reliance on the US Dollar for international trade, financial transactions and as a reserve currency. And the key economic impacts include higher borrowing costs and reduced financial flexibility, depreciation of the dollar and inflationary pressures. US Financial assets like equities and bonds could underperform relative to global markets as international investors reallocate away from dollar denominated assets. If they're not using dollars, there's no reason for them to buy American products, for example, or American financial assets. A loss of geopolitical and economic leverage. Remember, President Trump likes using sanctions. Well, sanctions are only effective if you have something to actually take away from the bad guys. And there would be uncertain effects on economic growth, then effective US Economic growth is ambiguous. A weaker dollar could enhance export competitiveness, make it easier for us to quote, unquote, cheaply produce goods. But those benefits might be offset by reduced foreign investment. So again, all this is not a particularly great indicator. Now, President Trump continues to tout his tariff war in Michigan. He did that the other night. Here he was. But I'm thrilled to be back in this beautiful state. I love this state and a lot of auto jobs coming. Watch what's happening.
