The Ben Shapiro Show – Ep. 2322

Title: Democrats Pull Ahead In 2026 Race
Date: November 20, 2025
Host: Ben Shapiro (The Daily Wire)

Episode Overview

In this episode, Ben Shapiro delivers his signature rapid-fire analysis of the latest polling data showing Democrats taking a significant lead in the 2026 Congressional race. He explores why Republicans, and in particular President Trump, are suffering in public opinion, focusing on economic anxieties and the ongoing Epstein files controversy. Shapiro also touches on congressional scandals, dynamics in key Senate races, immigration policy debates, economic indicators (particularly inflation and affordability), and concludes with commentary on media ethics and recent DOJ developments. The tone is vigorous, skeptical, and at times biting, particularly toward Democratic tactics and media figures.

Key Discussion Points

1. Democrats Surge in Congressional Polls

[01:09]

• According to a recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll, Democrats hold a 14-point generic Congressional ballot advantage, their biggest since 2017.
• “If that were to stick in the generic congressional ballot, you'd be looking at a Democratic wave in 2026.” – Ben Shapiro [03:18]
• Trump’s approval rating is at 39%, the lowest since right after January 6.
• Six in ten blame Republicans or Trump for the government shutdown, and nearly 60% believe Trump’s top priority should be lowering prices.
• Ben notes that while the generic ballot is important, it doesn’t always translate to seat losses due to increased polarization and fewer swing districts.

2. Analysis of House and Senate Vulnerabilities

[05:20]

• Ben cites data from Perplexity’s Comet browser, estimating 20–25 highly vulnerable Republican House seats, with Democrats needing only three to flip the House.
• Key battlegrounds: Nebraska, Iowa, Pennsylvania, California, New Hampshire.
• Likeliest Senate flips for Democrats: Maine (Susan Collins), North Carolina (open, with Thom Tillis not running), possible long-shots in Texas, Iowa, Alaska, and Ohio.
• “It would take a massive Democratic wave in order for them actually to take the Senate. The Senate map...is not good [for Dems].” [09:40]
• Losing the House would spell the end of major Trump administration legislation and usher in constant investigations.

3. Exploring Why Trump Is Lagging in the Polls

[12:24]

• Ben challenges conventional wisdom, arguing it’s not foreign policy or immigration dragging Trump down, but economic issues and the Epstein files controversy.
• Foreign policy: Trump’s approval on foreign policy is higher than prior presidents at this stage. “The American people like much more of what they're seeing from Donald Trump and foreign policy in term two than they did in term number one.” – (Paraphrasing Harry Enton) [13:41]
• Immigration: Has been "solved" to the extent that Americans have stopped thinking about it; approval decrease is from heartburn over internal deportations.
• Top issue: Economic perceptions—cost of living and inflation are hurting Trump’s approval.

4. Epstein Files as a Drag on the GOP

[16:30]

• Widespread frustration over Trump’s handling of Epstein files—approval among Republicans only 44%, with 31% disapproving.
• Shapiro claims Republicans are using Epstein as a wedge to attack Trump due to disagreements over foreign policy.
• “The people who have elevated this to the top of the issue stack are people who, shall we say, do not like the President's policy decisions.” [16:00]
• Cites statements from Rep. Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene, arguing they are seeking to undermine Trump by weaponizing Epstein transparency.
• Democrats, says Ben, are happily piling on: Chuck Schumer and others demanding total transparency (with political calculation).

Notable Quote:

“Anything less than full transparency will be unacceptable in the eyes of the American people. If Donald Trump refuses to comply...Senate Democrats will hold him accountable.” — Sen. Chuck Schumer [18:43]

5. Congressional Disarray: Scandals and Bad Candidates

[21:35]

• Shapiro discusses censure efforts between both parties, focusing on Rep. Cory Mills (FL), accused of multiple ethical violations, including financial misdeeds and personal misconduct.
• Mills’ vulnerability could endanger another Republican seat.
• DOJ indicts Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (FL) for alleged FEMA fund theft and laundering to support her campaign.

Notable Quote:

“If you don't want to lose congressional seats, you shouldn't run bad congressional candidates.” — Ben Shapiro [24:25]

6. Economic Outlook: Mixed News

[27:45]

• Good: September jobs report strong, Nvidia posts record sales, indicating tech sector growth.
• Bad: Target’s retail slump points to consumer pullback; inflation expectations remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic years.
• Shapiro underscores the challenge: “People in their own minds are not comparing what they paid for groceries this year to what they paid for groceries last year... they're comparing...to the price...four years ago.” [34:59]
• Thanksgiving costs are down from last year (~5%), but cumulative inflation remains a voter sore spot.

7. Affordability, Immigration, and Supply

[38:05]

• Trump is pressed on what can be done about affordability; Ben says boosting supply (including skilled immigration) is essential.
• Argues for a distinction: “This is not the President in favor of mass migration. This is the President saying what is clearly and obviously true...our people are going to be doing great, and those people can go home where they probably always want to be.” [44:30]
• Debates over unskilled vs skilled immigration, H1B visas, and labor market effects.

Notable Quote:

“If you want affordability, one of the things the government can do...is allowing companies to bring in labor that is useful to them...in order to get the factories up and running.” — Ben Shapiro [44:55]

8. Left-Wing Economics and Housing Policy

[46:30]

• Shapiro decries left-led housing policies in New York, particularly harsh critiques of rent control leading to “ghost apartments” (50,000 vacant due to maintenance cost restrictions).
• “Turns out the government policy usually achieves the reverse of the thing that it is attempting to achieve.” [47:06]

9. DOJ News and Journalistic Ethics

[48:00]

• Federal prosecution of James Comey is in jeopardy due to procedural problems with indictments.
• New Epstein investigation by AG Pam Bondi: Ben says it will satisfy no one.
• Ben slams journalist Olivia Nuzzi for professional/ethical lapses and the broader media culture.

Notable Quote:

“Sounds like some solid journalism. Sounds great. I'm glad that our journalistic crew is doing such a wonderful job day in and day out.” — Ben Shapiro on Olivia Nuzzi [52:56]

10. Interview: Mary Margaret Olohan (Daily Wire) on Epstein-Gate and White House Dynamics

[54:41 – 59:09]

• Olahan summarizes White House view: Dems didn’t care about Epstein until it became a GOP scandal; files soon to be released will have redactions, pleasing no one.
• “There are going to be people who are not satisfied with the release...there are always going to be more questions that we want to answer.” — Mary Margaret Olohan [55:53]
• Discusses upcoming meeting between NYC Mayor Zoram Hamdani and President Trump; characterized as a high-drama, “great television” political moment. [57:53]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Polls:
  “Democrats currently hold a 14 point advantage in this poll, which is a very, very large advantage.” [02:47]

• On Economic Discontent:
  “On the economy, [Trump] is 24 points underwater...on the cost of living, he has slid to negative 39.” [15:05]

• On Congressional Candidates:
  “If you don't want to lose congressional seats, you shouldn't run bad congressional candidates.” [24:25]

• On Media Ethics:
  “Sounds like some solid journalism. Sounds great.” [52:56]

• On Supply and Demand in Affordability:
  “The only way to make things more affordable...is you increase supply and the demand stays the same or you reduce the demand and the supply stays the same.” [39:56]

Timeline of Segment Highlights

| Timestamp | Segment | |------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:09 | Democrats’ 14-point polling lead; Trump approval at historic low | | 05:20 | Vulnerable Republican seats; Senate map analysis | | 12:24 | Why Trump’s polling is weak (not foreign policy, but economics) | | 16:30 | Epstein files & intra-GOP strife; Democratic political attacks | | 21:35 | Congressional scandals: Cory Mills, Rep. Cherfilus-McCormick | | 27:45 | Economic indicators: job growth, Nvidia, Target sales slump | | 34:59 | Voters' perceptions of inflation and affordability | | 38:05 | Immigration policy, H1B, supply-side economics | | 44:30 | Trump’s call for skilled immigration: reasoning and pushback | | 46:30 | NYC “ghost apartments” and housing policy critique | | 48:00 | DOJ updates: Comey, Epstein files, journalist controversy | | 54:41 | Mary Margaret Olahan interview: White House and Epstein scandal | | 57:53 | NYC Mayor Hamdani's upcoming White House visit |

Conclusion

Ben Shapiro delivers a thorough, combative, and data-driven diagnosis of the Republican Party’s 2026 prospects, zeroing in on mismanagement, public distrust, and persistent economic stresses as the GOP’s chief vulnerabilities. He critiques both parties for scandal and ethical lapses—though reserves harsher criticism for the left, media, and “bad candidates” within the Republican ranks. The Epstein files remain a persistent, divisive issue, and market optimism at the top is contrasted with real-world affordability pain for consumers. The episode closes on high political drama: anticipation of the NYC mayor’s White House visit and the unresolved tension of “Epstein-Gate.”

Tone: Fast-paced, acerbic, skeptical toward left-wing narratives, occasionally sardonic about GOP blunders, and unapologetically conservative.