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Tap or click the banner for more. Drink responsibly. Caribbean rum with real dairy cream Natural and artificial flavors. Alcohol 13.75% by volume 27.5 proof Copyright 2025 Agave Loco Brands, Pojoaquee, Wisconsin. All rights reserved. Democrats are way ahead in the polling for 2026 in Congress. We'll talk about why that's happening and what needs to change. We'll also get into affordability, as well as some bizarre journalistic ethics questions. First, our Daily Wire + Black Friday it's here right now. Get your annual DailyWire + membership for half the price. All the shows, all the movies, all the news you need. 50% off. Go to dailywire.com subscribe well, we have new economic news. We'll talk about that in a moment. It actually is quite good for the Trump administration. However, we begin with the fact that Democrats in polling currently have a massive advantage in Congress for 2026. According to the latest NPR PBS News Marist poll survey of 1443 adults conducted from November 10th to 13th, found the Democrats hold their largest advantage since 2017 in terms of who people would vote for on the Congressional Congressional ballot, the generic congressional ballot. Now remember, you're not voting on a generic congressperson when you actually go to the polling place. You are voting on your congressperson. And so it's possible that widespread dissatisfaction with the Republican Party doesn't necessarily translate into your individual congressperson losing his or her seat. However, Democrats currently hold a 14 point advantage in this poll, which is a very, very large advantage. If that were to stick in the generic congressional ballot, you'd be looking at a Democratic wave. In 2026. President Trump, in this polling, his approval rating is just 39%, which is his lowest since right after January 6. A combined six in 10 people blame congressional Republicans or Trump for the government shutdown, which again, well done legacy media for somehow spinning a completely Democrat cause government shutdown into a story about President Trump and Republican intransigent. Nearly 6 in 10 say that Trump's top priority should be lowering prices. No other issue comes close, actually. So again, those are very bad numbers for the Republicans right now. What does that mean for the 2026 election? Well, in the fall of 2022, Democrats had a lead in the generic congressional ballot. They ended up losing nine House seats to the Republicans in 2020. In 2018, during Trump's first term, the Democrats lead was somewhere between 6 and 12 points and they ended up winning 40 seats. In 2014, when Obama was president, Republicans had a 5 point advantage and the GOP gained 13 seats. So the number of actual vulnerable districts has shrunk fairly dramatically. So even if Democrats have a gigantic advantage in the generic congressional balloting, again, the way that the districts are stacked up, there are a lot more solid Dem districts and a lot more solid Republican districts and fewer swing districts overall. In fact, we asked our sponsors over at Perplexity, they have a brand new web browser called Comet. And we asked how many vulnerable Republican seats are there in the house for 2026 and what is the likely range of Democratic wins? And according to Comet, there are about 20 to 25 highly vulnerable Republican House seats going into the 2026 midterm elections. Based on expert forecasts and ratings of competitive districts, those vulnerable seats are concentrated in swing districts with close 2024 results. There are a bunch of open seats to retirement and there are areas with unfavorable demographic shifts. For the gop, key battlegrounds include districts in Nebraska, Iowa, Pennsylvania, California and New Hampshire. According to many analyses, 10 to 12 of those seats are currently ranked as toss ups and and another 8 to 15 are listed as lean Democratic or lean Republican. So all of those could shift depending on, again, how the generalized feeling about the Republican Party goes. Remember, Democrats need three seats to take control of the House. Three. So what is the most likely outcome? Well, I mean, probably the upper end of disaster for Republicans is like 25 seats, 20 to 25 seats, which would put Democrats pretty solidly in control of the House. Now, it would take a massive Democratic wave in order for them to actually take the Senate. The Senate map for the Democrats is not good. Again, asking our sponsors over at Comet the most vulnerable Senate seats for Republicans in 2026 and the likelihood of Republicans losing them. So the two most vulnerable seats are in Maine and in North Carolina, Senator Susan Collins, frequently a sort of target for many dyspeptic Republicans who don't understand that if you want a Republican to hold the seat in Maine, that Republican is not going to look like Tom Cotton or Rick Scott. That Republican is going to look like Susan Collins. Susan Collins is a battler and a survivor up in Maine. She is the only Republican incumbent running in a state won by a 2024 Democratic presidential nominee. Meaning this is the only senator who is up for election as a Republican in a state. Comma 1. It is a top Democratic target. That. That, of course, is a very fortunate, fraught seat. That race right now has as the leading Democratic candidate, not the sitting governor of Maine, but actually a radical Democratic socialist, Graham Platner, who is a disaster area for a wide variety of reasons. It'll be an interesting race. And then you have North Carolina. That seat has opened up because Thom Tillis, a frequent target of the president, has decided that he is not going to run for reelect. And so that seat opens up and maybe that seat swivels blue. So that's two seats. But remember, Republicans hold 53 seats, which means that in order for Democrats to take control of the Senate, they would need to take two more. Right. So even assuming you lose Maine, you lose North Carolina. Republicans still have 51. The next most likely switches would be Texas, Iowa, and Alaska. Now, Texas is always the kind of great white whale for Democrats. They're always saying, this will be the year that they finally take Texas. That Texas race is John Cornyn. John Cornyn, of course, is facing a pretty dramatic primary challenge from Ken Paxton. Paxton is a significantly less good general election candidate than Cornyn. So that race could be a little bit dicey for the Republicans. Iowa is a very red state, but Joanie Ernst, who's a very popular senator, is leaving that seat open. And open seats get a little dicey. If it's a big Democratic wave in Iowa, you could theoretically see Republicans lose that Iowa seat, and then that would take Republicans down to 50. And at that point, you'd have the vice president, J.D. vance, breaking any ties in the Senate. There'd be no margin for error for the Senate Majority Leader, John Thune. There is one more race that is up for Republicans. That is the Ohio race. John Husted is the current senator. He is running against Sherrod Brown. Sherrod Brown, you'll recall, is one of the senators who just lost a race. He is now coming back. He. He lost to Bernie Moreno. He's now coming back and he's going to race again. He was very recently a senator, so that's a vulnerable race as well. It's not. In other words, it is not totally out of range of possibility for Democrats to win the Senate. But it would take a lot for Democrats to win the Senate. If Democrats were to actively take the Senate, they would probably also need to take Alaska, which is, again, a red state. Dan Sullivan is a popular senator there. So it seems pretty unlikely that the Republicans lose both the House and the Senate. But losing the House would be bad enough. If they lose the House, that's the end of major legislation from the Trump administration. It means endless investigations. It means that the House becomes a baton to wield against everything the Trump administration is trying to do on the executive level. So this requires us to look at what exactly is happening here. Why is President Trump lagging in the polls now? Why is he at 39%, 40%? How does he recover? So there is a brand new Reuters Ipsos poll that also shows, just like that NPR poll, that Trump is in the high 30s, that he's at 38%, which is the lowest rating he has had since he returned to power in January. What are the reasons for that? Well, it shows, actually, that the reason is not what people say that it is. So people have been saying that it's his foreign policy, that Trump's foreign policy is tearing apart. The Republican Party. People do. It's his foreign policy. It's his policy in Ukraine and in the Middle east, and it's all of his focus on foreign policy that's destroying the party. Actually, wrong. The only actually part of his policy right now that is wildly popular, at least by Trumpian standards, is, is his foreign policy. In fact, Trump's foreign policy, his approval ratings on foreign policy are better than any prior president of the modern era at this point in his term, which is kind of extraordinary for the amount of crap that he is currently taking in the very online spaces. Guys, get out and touch grass. It turns out most Americans like the stuff that President Trump has been doing. On foreign policy, or at least a plurality of Americans like it. And here's Harry Enton talking about the President's approval ratings on foreign policy. You know, this is one of the areas in which Donald Trump is performing significantly better than he was in term one. One of his best issues relative to term one. What are we talking about? Approval of Trump on foreign policy at this point in term one. Look, Donald Trump was just at a 35% approval rating, up like a rocket. We're talking about 43% now. That's an 8 point rise on the net approval rating. We're talking about a double digit rise. The American people like much more of what they're seeing from Donald Trump and foreign policy in term two than they did in term number one. Okay, so again, it ain't his foreign policy. It isn't immigration either. The President's net approval ratings on immigration have gone down, but that's largely because he has solved the immigration crisis in the United States. It turns out that Americans, they get a little bit more heartburn when it comes to deportation of people who are already in the United States. But the part that Trump already solved, which was the big Biden problem, was leaving that southern border wide open, Right? That was the part that Trump solved because he solved that. Now that problem is off the table. So Americans aren't even thinking about the southern border. If they were thinking about the southern border in comparison to Biden, his approval ratings would be 80%. But we've now reached the point in the presidency where if you solve the problem that no longer actually accrues to your benefit or redounds to your benefit, actually it kind of goes away just in the mind. Like, when's the last time you thought about the southern border? The answer is you don't, because Trump solved it. We'll get to more on the lagging polls for Republicans in a moment. 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That's a RM.com Shapiro on the economy, he is 24 points underwater. Or at least he slid 24 points since February of 2025 on the cost of living, he has slid to negative 39. That's his net approval rating since returning to office on cost of living, and he's getting shellacked at least a little bit. But the Epstein files. 59% of Americans do not approve of his handling of the Epstein files. Among Republicans, 44% approve, 31% disapprove, 25% don't know. Among Democrats, of course, it's 88 to 6, because Democrats hate everything that he does. So if you had to put your finger on the two things that are sort of dragging Trump down in the approval ratings, it would be economic issues, which of course is true for every president. And yes, the Epstein stuff. Why the Epstein stuff? Well, Democrats were always going to disapprove of Trump on the Epstein stuff, of course, because Democrats disapprove of Trump on literally everything he does. The reason that Trump has dropped in his approval rating on the Epstein stuff is because you have actors who are trying to use the Epstein stuff as a club against the president in order to seize control of the MAGA movement. That's what's happening. Okay. Trump has not done anything radically different about Epstein than Joe Biden did, for example. In fact, he has been significantly more transparent than Joe Biden ever was. And I noticed that many of the big advocates on the Epstein matters are either directly implicated by the Epstein files themselves, like Steve Bannon, or are people who had no qualms about Epstein, weren't even talking about Epstein a year and a half ago. There were no major motions from Representative Thomas Massie to the Biden administration asking for the release of the Epstein files. In fact, the bill that just passed in the House and then in the Senate and the President signed that bill, the Epstein Files Transparency act, was only initiated in July of this year. Why? Well, because it turns out that you have a bunch of angry critics of the President's foreign policy who attempted to use the Epstein files as a way of undermining the President, period. That is what is happening. That doesn't mean people don't have open questions or that Normie, Americans aren't concerned. Of course, all of that's true. But the people who have elevated this to the top of the issue stack are people who, shall we say, do not like the President's policy decisions. That's what this is about. I mean, here was Thomas Massie yesterday, a guy who's apparently going to stake his entire congressional career on the Epstein files, talking about the Epstein files again, endlessly. These files implicate billionaires and friends of him, of his and political, political donors that he's trying to Protect. And Epstein also had close ties to our own intelligence agencies and Israel's intelligence agencies. That's why there's so much effort in trying to stop this. Okay. He has provided no evidence that that is in fact the case because no evidence has actually been provided by anyone that that is in fact the case. He's putting that out there because again, he's very angry that the President decided to bomb the Fordo nuclear reactor in Iran. That's what this is. Marjorie Taylor Greene doing the same thing, seeing an opportunity to try and cause a rift with the administration over foreign policy and using Epstein as a club in order to do that. And Democrats are happy to jump in. Why do you think Abby Phillip is now massaging Marjorie Taylor Greene? You can tell who's getting the strange new respect these days. When you're on the same side as Abby Phillips with regard to the Epstein files, you might want to think about it a little bit. I do think that this loyalty thing.
