The Ben Shapiro Show – Ep. 2341

Will Republicans Win In 2026?
Date: January 7, 2026
Host: Ben Shapiro
Notable Guests: Donald Trump (via clips), Senator Tim Sheehy (Montana), Alex Clark (Culture Apothecary)

Episode Overview

Ben Shapiro investigates the daunting prospects facing the Republican Party as the 2026 midterms approach, focusing on their shrinking House majority, internal party tensions, foreign policy under Trump, and looming legislative battles. He is joined by Senator Tim Sheehy of Montana for commentary on the Venezuela operation and by Alex Clark for a discussion of a pivotal Supreme Court case on chemical company liability.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Republicans’ Shrinking House Majority & Legislative Peril

• House Majority Dwindles

  • The passing of Rep. Doug LaMalfa reduces GOP edge to 218-213 (01:20), compounded by Marjorie Taylor Greene’s resignation and further absences, leaving the majority extremely fragile.
  • Ben: “Your workable majority is shrinking into the arena of unworkability… If you’re Speaker Mike Johnson, your job is becoming nearly impossible.” (01:47)

• Trump Applies Pressure

  • Trump criticizes holdout Republicans like Thomas Massie for not supporting party-line voting (02:42).
  • Quote:

    "You can have the greatest bill, the greatest for the country… I'm a no vote. We don't even bother calling him at three in the morning, do we?"
    — Donald Trump (02:42)

2. Foreign Policy Wins and Electoral Impact

• Trump’s Venezuela Operation

  • Seizure of oil tankers and arrest of Maduro touted as significant (03:10, 32:57).
  • Ben: “Foreign policy wins can help at the margins… particularly true if you are targeting political constituencies that are drifting away from you.” (03:24)
  • Target Voters: Trump, having outperformed with Hispanic Americans, sees Venezuela/Cuba actions as energizing certain swing states (03:13).

• Trump’s Messaging to GOP

  • Trump insists his presidential success requires a GOP midterm victory to avoid Democratic control and possible impeachment.
  • Quote:

    “You gotta win the midterms. Because if we don’t… they'll find a reason to impeach me.”
    — Donald Trump (07:01)

3. Culture Wars, Party Tactics, and ‘Affordability’

• Critique of Democratic Messaging

  • Ben argues Democrats are pivoting from social issues (e.g., trans rights, DEI) to “affordability,” a subjective critique of economic conditions (09:24).

• Welfare Fraud and Immigration

  • Shapiro links Democratic immigration and welfare policies to scandals (e.g., Minnesota fraud), urging Republicans to focus “extraordinary fire” on this vulnerability (14:12).
  • Quote:

    “Their immigration policy combined with welfare fraud is a toxic brew…”
    — Ben Shapiro (13:40)

• Government Expansion vs. Waste

  • Ben laments that Republicans are “in vogue” for expanding government but only want to “cut waste,” arguing this is insufficient (16:29).

4. Obamacare Subsidy Cliff and Republican Dilemmas

• Health Care Affordability
  • Discusses proposals to mitigate the “Obamacare cliff,” with Ben skeptical about Trump’s focus on Health Savings Accounts as a sufficient fix (21:38).
  • “The amount that the Trump administration is talking about putting in HSAs is probably not going to compensate the people who really, really need the help right now.” (21:38)
  • Bipartisan push (Moreno, Collins) for a two-year extension of subsidies, with tougher verification to prevent fraud (24:01).

5. Social Media Pitfalls for Politicians

• Vivek Ramaswamy’s WSJ Piece
  • Ramaswamy warns of social media acting as a “trap” for politicians, cautioning against letting online discourse reshape policy messages (24:35).

6. Venezuela Operation in Depth – Interview with Senator Tim Sheehy

• Military & Geopolitical Success

  • Sheehy lauds the “astonishing operation” to remove Maduro, emphasizing the maturation of American special operations and strategic outcomes.
  • Quote:

    “What a lot of folks don't know is the history of where Special Ops came from… That mission was a failure [Eagle Claw], and as a result, we created the very capable task force…”
    — Senator Tim Sheehy (33:27)

• U.S. Foreign Policy Shifts

  • Ben argues the U.S. is now post-‘Iraq syndrome’—ready for targeted, limited interventions, not quagmires (36:53).
  • Sheehy agrees: “We're turning the page now to a new era that actually harkens back to… said, yes, we have formed our republic to get away from the ills of the old world…” (37:35)

• Next Steps in Venezuela

  • Both agree stabilization requires patience and pressure, not massive ground deployments or outright regime change (41:00).
  • Sheehy: “Thank you for reminding folks it’s day four… It took us, you know, 15 years to get a constitution in place in America.” (41:00)

• Democratic Critique Called Hypocritical

  • Sheehy blasts Democrats for complaining about deposing Maduro while calling for Netanyahu/Trump’s arrest:
  • Quote:

    “It would be funny if it wasn’t so disgraceful.”
    — Tim Sheehy (35:13)

7. International Reactions: China, Iran, Greenland

• Media Criticism
  • Ben rebuts NYT claims that US assertiveness in Venezuela emboldens China in Asia: “This is insipid. It’s totally insane.” (44:12)
• Iran Unrest
  • Shapiro covers mounting instability in Tehran and speculates on regime fragility, partly due to U.S. pressure (45:00).
• Trump’s Greenland Obsession
  • Trump and Stephen Miller argue U.S. should annex Greenland, citing strategic need (48:42, 49:19), though Ben is skeptical.

8. Health & Wellness Policy: MAHA, SNAP Reforms, Supreme Court Case (With Alex Clark)

• Childhood Vaccine Recommendations

  • HHS revises schedule to slim down vaccine recommendations, sparking debate (50:10).
  • Alex Clark: “There's a lot that we've done, but there's a really, really big thing happening at the Supreme Court this Friday...” (52:34)

• Supreme Court Case: Bayer/Monsanto & Pesticide Accountability

  • At issue: Should chemical companies be immune from state lawsuits if their products, such as Roundup, are EPA-approved—even if science later shows harm? (53:15)
  • Alex Clark:

    “If Bayer wins, this opens the door to immunity for all 57,000 pesticide products... It would even protect foreign companies…” (56:54)

• SNAP & Obesity: GOP Policy Wins

  • States ban purchase of soda with SNAP benefits; Clark applauds moves to “not subsidize the obesity epidemic” (60:24).

• MAHA Movement

  • Clark touts wins like food dye bans, reforms to baby formula, and revival of presidential fitness test in schools.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “Your workable majority is shrinking into the arena of unworkability.”
  — Ben Shapiro (01:47)

• “You can have the greatest bill, the greatest for the country… I'm a no vote.”
  — Donald Trump (02:42)

• “You gotta win the midterms. Because if we don’t… they'll find a reason to impeach me.”
  — Donald Trump (07:01)

• “Their immigration policy combined with welfare fraud is a toxic brew…”
  — Ben Shapiro (13:40)

• “What a lot of folks don't know is the history of where Special Ops came from… as a result, we created the very capable task force that Americans saw execute this mission last weekend.”
  — Senator Tim Sheehy (33:27)

• “If Bayer wins, this opens the door to immunity for all 57,000 pesticide products regulated under federal law… It would even protect foreign companies…”
  — Alex Clark (56:54)

• “We don’t need more discussions about Curtis Yarvin’s fascist proposals from politicians.”
  — Ben Shapiro (24:35)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Topic/Segment | Start | |-------------------------------------------------|-----------| | GOP House majority crisis | 00:00 | | Trump pressures Republicans (Massie quote) | 02:42 | | Foreign policy wins and Hispanic vote | 03:13 | | Trump's roadmap and urgency | 04:20 | | Culture war: Democrats’ ‘affordability’ pivot | 09:24 | | Welfare/immigration fraud in Minnesota | 14:12 | | Obamacare ‘cliff’ and subsidy debate | 21:19 | | Social media as political trap | 24:35 | | Venezuela operation—Sheehy interview | 32:57 | | U.S. Foreign policy strategic shift | 36:53 | | Democratic hypocrisy on foreign policy | 35:13 | | U.S.-China/Iran/Greenland geopolitics | 44:12 | | HHS childhood vaccine changes | 50:10 | | Supreme Court/Bayer Roundup case | 53:15 | | SNAP soda ban & Maha movement | 60:24 |

Tone, Style, and Language

Ben Shapiro delivers with his trademark rapid-fire analysis and ideological clarity, mixing sarcasm, exasperation, numbers, and pop culture. Guests echo the urgency and combative spirit, with pointed critiques of Democrats and a sense of crusading zeal on policy and cultural issues.

Summary:

This episode delivers a dense, multi-faceted examination of Republican challenges heading into the 2026 midterms, the importance of foreign policy victories, internal party debates, policy innovations on health and welfare, and an array of culture-war flashpoints. With analysis, polling, interviews, and sharp polemics, Shapiro spells out both the opportunities and landmines that will define the political battles of the next year for the GOP.