Trisha McLaughlin (11:11)

Mortgage rates on Friday fell below 6% for the first time in years. And this comes after the president ordered.

Ben Shapiro (11:18)

His quote, unquote representatives to begin buying.

Trisha McLaughlin (11:21)

$200 billion worth of mortgage bonds. What are you hearing about this move?

Economic Analyst (11:25)

So at first we actually did see yields coming down and that's exactly what the administration wanted. And it was interesting because the bond markets sort of waited a bit to suss out how they felt about this. And then you had investors coming in and saying, okay, let's move rates down. But then after this Powell investigation dropped over the weekend we have the exact opposite effect happening. The market has already undone all of the good of low lower rates that happened off the back of that $200 billion mortgage bond purchase announcement.

Ben Shapiro (11:51)

Now, with that said, again, mortgage rates being lower is a good thing. It means that people can get a mortgage more easily. Meanwhile, it turns out that as we've been noting, there's been a lot of talk about affordability. And one of the things that I have been pushing for a while, and that of course has now been taken out of context repeatedly, is the idea that rents are not the same everywhere. Rents are not the same in Manhattan as they are in Austin, Texas. And it seems that actually a bunch of the Sunbelt cities, the rents have not only been coming down. Even with regards to, say, luxury apartments, rents have been coming down and concessions have been going up. According to the Wall street journal, about 54% of rentals in the Phoenix metro area are giving tenants at least one month off their rent. Why? Well, because builders saw that there was a movement of population into Phoenix and those evil, terrible corporations then built a bunch of luxury apartments and then fewer people than expected showed up and then the rents went down. See how that works? When you increase the supply and the demand stabilizes, then the price goes down. I know. Shocking. The renter friendly environment in Phoenix is a symptom of the city's enormous glut of high end apartments. Developers flooded the Sunbelt with new luxury buildings and flashy amenities during the pandemic years when droves of remote workers were moving in. That led to a record surge of new apartments hitting the market. Now there aren't enough renters to fill them. Places like Denver and Charlotte, North Carolina are similarly oversupplied. By the way, you'll notice that some of those places, like Charlotte particularly, are actually heavily corporate owned. We were told that those corporations owning apartment buildings was bad, but the rents are going down. There's not a correlation between corporate ownership and rents going up. It all depends on the amount of supply injected into the system. Particularly particularly if people in corporations, for example, are buying up houses that were owned by others and then renting them out. That now is a piece of rental supply. Landlords struggling to fill their empty apartments use concessions as a way to draw more tenants without having to cut their baseline prices. The renters effectively end up paying a lower rent. Landlords prefer that upfront discount because it's more temporary hit and allows them to maintain the advertised value of the property for lenders and investors. But Phoenix rents have been falling Steadily. And again, it is not just Phoenix, the other cities that are offering major concessions exactly where you would think. Phoenix, Denver, Charlotte, Austin, San Antonio, Raleigh, North Carolina, Jacksonville, Florida, Tampa, Florida, Nashville and Las Vegas. You notice where you're not seeing a lot of that stuff. La, New York, precisely the places where we are told and nobody should ever move. It should stay there and rent control will fix the problem for you. So again, there are good indicators here that people are going to be able to achieve more affordable lifestyles, particularly if they are living in red areas in red states. Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, chairman of the National Council of Economic Advisors, he says that we are looking at possibly 5% GDP growth in Q4, which is astonishing.

Kevin Hassett (14:43)

Bottom line, right now I'm looking at the output numbers and we got GDP now north of 5% in the fourth quarter after 2.4percent the previous. So I think you got to say that Trump policies are really working. They're really working. And they're working because they're on shoring production, they're causing factories to build. And in the fullness of time, I expect that to cause a job blowout in the second half of next year, especially now.

Ben Shapiro (15:07)

Again, I do not think that the reason that the Trump economy is working is because of, say, the tariffs. I think the Trump economy is working because we maintain the same tax rates. We did not upset the apple cart, we've cut regulations in a pretty marked way. And again, populations are moving from non business friendly areas like California to significantly more business friendly areas like, say, Texas and Florida. Meanwhile, the home building costs are going to come down. They will. This is a point being made by former Senator Kirsten Sinema. She was a Democrat who turned independent. She points out that as AI kicks in, as robotics kicks in, the cost on building a home is going to drop pretty markedly, which of course is true.

Industry Expert on AI and Housing (15:44)

So there are about eight or so companies in the country that are using AI robots to build homes. You know, going to see those start deploying out this year. We're reducing the cost of home building by up to 40%. That's going to make a huge difference for middle class Americans.

Ben Shapiro (16:00)

Part of this is part of a bigger story, which is that the middle class has been moving into the upper middle class for years on end. This, of course, is a point being made by the Wall Street Journal editorial board and this has been true for a long time. According to Stephen Rose and Scott Winship, most studies purporting to find a shrinking middle class in America are prone to, to a variety of measurement and analytical Problems. The biggest is the difficulty of defining middle class. Instead, Rosen Winship said an absolute marker for different income groups based on multiples of the federal poverty level in 2024. So, for example, for families of three poor is a household income below 40 grand. The core middle class would be incomes from 67 grand to 133 grand. Upper middle class would be incomes up to 400 grand. Then they use that inflation data to calibrate those thresholds for previous years going back to 1979. Measured in that way, the story of the past 50 years is steady progress out of the core middle class and into the upper middle class. The share of families in that core middle class has declined to 30.8% in 2024 from 35.5% in 1979. But so have the proportions in the poor and lower middle class cohorts. The upper middle class has exploded. Only 10.4% of people in 1979 were in the upper middle class. Now that is nearly one third of families. For the first time in American history, according to Rosen Winship, more families in 2024 were above the core middle class threshold, 35% than below it. Now, again, doesn't mean we don't have cost overruns and cost problems, particularly in heavily regulated blue areas. But the notion that the American economy has been failing everybody is clearly untrue on a fundamental level. Meanwhile, we are seeing some consolidation in the AI industry. This is kind of interesting because you could see a world where this does lead to the bubble bursting as we were discussing a little bit earlier. Well, we are also seeing a consolidation inside the AI industry. So fascinating story out today. Apparently Apple has now chosen Google's Gemini to power Siri. So that'll make Siri a hell of a lot better. It also means that Gemini now has a leg up. Gemini is incredible. It's in heavy competition with Chat GPT right now as the best AI chatbot that is available today. The best LLM available today. Gemini seems to be growing by leaps and bounds. Well, if let's say Gemini were to outcompete OpenAI so thoroughly that OpenAI were to start to fall apart, that could have some knock on effects to the broader economy. Doesn't mean that AI is a bubble. Does mean that there are certain competitors who could theoretically lose. When competitors lose and there's a consolidation in the market, depends if there's bleed over to other companies as well. So we'll definitely be keeping an eye on that. Meanwhile, the other big story of the day of course is the continuation of chaos surrounding what's going on with ice. Obviously, the anger is palpable. In places like Minneapolis, people don't believe they're breaking the law even when they're breaking the law. If you get in the way of ICE officials who are attempting to pursue a federal operation, you are in fact violating federal law and you will get yourself into hot water. According to the Washington Post, they say they're monitoring ICE arrests. Feds say they are breaking the law. They're talking here about a lot of these sort of ICE watch groups. The fatal shooting of Renee Good last week, says the Washington Post, as ICE officers and residents faced off on a residential street here, has brought new attention to these sorts of activities. Federal court rulings say citizens can observe and record police activity in public areas as part of their first amendment rights. Many of the observers are doing nothing more than that. But as officers and agents employ aggressive tactics, some activists have blown whistles to warn community members of approaching law enforcement, tried to follow immigration enforcement vehicles or use their own cars to block the roadways. That enters murkier legal territory. Some legal experts said such behavior could in theory justify obstruction of justice charges. Well, that, that's particularly true if you're taking your car and literally blocking ICE agents from getting to the place they need to be. Officials throughout the Department of Homeland Security are vowing to prosecute anybody who interferes with an operation or endangers an officer. Joining us online to discuss is Trisha McLaughlin. She's Assistant Secretary for Public affairs for Homeland Security. Thanks so much for taking the time. Really appreciate it, Ben.

Trisha McLaughlin (20:07)

Thank you for having me.

Ben Shapiro (20:08)

So first of all, why don't you explain for people who've only been watching the legacy media coverage, why don't you explain exactly what the Department of Homeland Security is doing with these sort of large scale ICE deportation operations? Who are they targeting? Which are the people that they're going after?

Trisha McLaughlin (20:23)

We are targeting the worst, the worst criminal illegal aliens. Ben, we know at least 20 million criminal illegal aliens came into this country over the last four years alone. So really our top priority are these gang members. Our murderers are rapists, child pedophiles. I mean, I just see the reports every single day. They come into piece of paper on my office. And what we've seen is just flabbergasting. As far as the number of criminals who have been allowed to walk around with impunity in this country, there's been over 1,000 new known or suspected terrorists that we've arrested in the last year. 3,500 members of Trend Iragua that we've arrested. And there's plenty more who are out there. And that's why we have been flooding the zone to get these individuals out of our country.

Ben Shapiro (21:07)

So how necessary is it to quote, unquote, flood the zone? So obviously the ICE operation has been incredibly visible. That means that you have groups that are well funded, like ICE Watch, for example, who are showing up to obstruct ICE operations. You know, I think that formerly the ineffective operations pursued by non Trump administrations during my lifetime had been kind of low visibility operations by ice. Certainly what we're watching now is significantly more visible. Is it necessary for ICE to be as visible as they're being in pursuing these operations?

Trisha McLaughlin (21:33)

Well, I think we should take a step back and talk about what does a sanctuary city mean. So we're talking about Minneapolis, New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and we call them sanctuary cities. What exactly does that mean? A, it means that these sanctuary city politicians are, are harboring these criminal legal aliens. But B, it also means that our law enforcement is not permitted to work with them. And C, and this is the most important part, I think for your audience, is that that means ICE law enforcement is not allowed into the jails. So if Chicago picks up a criminal legal alien, maybe they picked up somebody who was convicted of rape, and that person is in their jail, they're not allowed to release them to ICE or, or coordinate their eventual release to ICE for eventual deportation. What happens is that person will serve a certain amount of time, then they'll be released back onto the streets. So the reason that we have such a large law enforcement presence is because we can't go into those jails to target those criminals. And so we have to really sweep the city and target them in place using intelligence, using our case analysis, and make sure that we're going after these individuals.

Ben Shapiro (22:41)

So when we look at the sort of thing that's been happening in Minnesota, where you have people suggesting that ICE is engaged in state sponsored terrorism or that ICE is the Gestapo, what was the exact operation that was happening in Minnesota for people unfamiliar?

Trisha McLaughlin (22:56)

So we've arrested in just the last five weeks alone, 2,000 illegal aliens. That includes child pedophiles, multiple, I would say scores, in fact, multiple murders, a known and suspected terrorists, multiple gang members. But we also, in Minneapolis itself, of course, we've seen a scourge of fraud, $9 billion. But we think that that's just the tip of the iceberg. So our Homeland Security investigators are on the ground there. We've had about 300 they're not doing immigration enforcement. They're really looking at this fraud and white collar crime. In addition, we have about 1,000 plus ERO, which is ICE enforcement, those members on the ground who are really sweeping the city there. And as well, we are also doing immigration fraud high level investigations with uscis, which is the arm of DHS that gives out visas, gives out green cards, but also does audits for fraud like we're seeing in Minneapolis.

Ben Shapiro (24:00)

Obviously, enormous eyeballs on this. Renee, good situation, which I think everyone can agree, regardless of your interpretation of the situation, is tragic. But that has nothing to do with whether the officer who is involved did anything wrong. The only question from a legal perspective with regard to the officer is whether he had the objectively reasonable view that he was about to be hit by a car. And since he in fact was hit by a car in the process of shooting the defense, the person who was killed, that seems to be dispositive from a purely legal level. Why do you think this is blown up this way?

Trisha McLaughlin (24:30)

Well, I think that everyone's going into their different camps and instead of waiting and looking at the true facts on the ground, of course immigration enforcement is polarizing, particularly to those on the left. But the truth of the matter is this was the mandate that President Trump was given when he was elected into office. The American people saw that crime was surging. If you look at Minneapolis alone, since Governor Walz became governor, homicides in Minneapolis have increased 50%. But I think when you look at this particular incident, of course any loss of life is tragic and we pray for the deceased and her family. But what happened leading up to this, those facts are incredibly important. At 10:25am Central Time on Wednesday, January 7, what happened was this individual, she had been impeding and blocking in our ICE law enforcement officers. She had been doing that throughout the day, obstructing lawful operations, which, Ben, as you know, that is a felony. At one point, our ICE law enforcement officers then approached her vehicle and said to get out of the car, she was going to be under arrest. And they commanded her to stop obstructing operations. That's when she would not obey those lawful commands. That's when we see in the video, the law enforcement officer is in front of her. She hits the gas. And he was in fear of his own life and he was in fear of the law enforcement who were around him. She weaponized her vehicle. She used it as a deadly weapon. And our officer, he responded as his training instructs him to do. And unfortunately, there was a loss of life here. But our officer, he conducted himself in the way he should have and he did save his own life.

Ben Shapiro (26:17)

So what do you make of, you know, again, major Democrats who are coming out and comparing ICE to the Gestapo, suggesting that we are living now under the predations of police state and vowing that they're going to try to impede ICE operations themselves. You've seen those sorts of claims being made by top level Democratic politicians.

Trisha McLaughlin (26:33)

Well, they're clearly legally illiterate because ice, CBP and other DHS law enforcement, they are conducting these operations with the law behind them. If people don't like ICE enforcing the rule of law, which is what our men and women are doing every single day, these politicians should change the law or they can lobby Congress to change the law. But continuing to demonize and vilify our law enforcement, you're going to see more incidents like this because people who are either brainwashed or, or lunatics are going to take matters into their own hands. We've already seen these vehicles be routinely and perpetually weaponized against our law enforcement. We have a 1000% increase in assaults against law enforcement. I mean, Ben, just last week alone we had 10 of these vehicle rammings. These vehicles are deadly weapons and one of our law enforcement officers could easily end up killed if we don't see a stop to this. But I think as far as the political nature of this for the Democrats as well, obviously Minneapolis has been a flashpoint because of the massive amount of fraud that we've seen and that Homeland Security investigations are investigating. And so I think that there is a part of this where they're trying to circle the wagons and really use this as a smokescreen so people stop talking about the fraud.

Ben Shapiro (27:49)

I'm Tricia. One of the things that really is sort of unnoted in all of this is the fact that the number of deportations from red states actually in many cases outweigh outnumbers the number of deportations from blue states. The difference is that the blue state governors are trying to obstruct and sanctuary city mayors are trying to obstruct in these blue areas. In red states, if they cooperate with ice, then these operations tend to go off pretty easily without a hitch. And then the deportations are actually pretty sizable. So it is not as though the Trump administration is only targeting blue areas of blue states. A huge number of deportations are happening in red states and red areas.

Trisha McLaughlin (28:21)

Oh, completely. I mean, you look at Louisiana, we have a large scale operation in New Orleans where we have a Governor who is cooperating with us. We have law enforcement who's cooperating with us. That makes it a lot safer, not just for our law enforcement, but for the public on the ground as well. Because when things, when we start to have agitators, we start to have riders, people who are impeding operations or assaulting law enforcement. Our law enforcement are able to call local and state officials for backup. And that really makes sure that there aren't these dangerous situations that spin out of control. But you also, a lot of your viewers will have seen in the news that we have surged CBP law enforcement on the ground there to Minneapolis. A lot of that is so that we can make sure that we are quelling any violence that we see from these violent agitators. We're seeing things get more and more coordinated, more and more people coming on the ground and using tactics like vehicle rammings and assault against law enforcement. So we still need to conduct operations in Minneapolis and other blue states around the country. And so what we're going to do, we have to bring more men and women on the ground to ensure they can still conduct these operations, but do so in a safe and orderly fashion.

Ben Shapiro (29:31)

Well, that's Trisha McLaughlin. She's Assistant Secretary for Public affairs at Department of Homeland Security. Trisha, thanks so much for your time. Really appreciate it.

Trisha McLaughlin (29:37)

Thank you, Ben.

Ben Shapiro (29:38)

Meanwhile, blue state governance in other places not going well either. According to an editorial at the New York Post, Kathy Hochul has signed off on a bill that they say will all but guarantee more child abuse in the state of New York in the name of fixing racial disparities in the child welfare system. The new law bars callers to the City Administration for Child Services from leaving tips anonymously, which sounds insane to me. Why? Because it turns out that they say that these tips, quote, drive inexcusable racial disparities that disproportionately impact black and brown families by leading to unnecessary interactions with child welfare services. So they apparently are supposing that a bunch of KKK members are calling up the Administration for Children's Services and saying that the black guy down the hall is beating his kid, and it's not true. So now they don't want you to leave an anonymous tip. You have to actually leave your name. Advocates say that anonymity lets abusive exes and vindictive or racist landlords, neighbors and so on use acs to harass innocent parents with disruptive probes. But the actual reality is that if you hand over your name and your phone number, even if There's a promise that your identity won't be revealed publicly will not just discourage bogus tips, it will discourage all tips. Because even though they say they're not releasing it publicly, I mean, are you sure if there's a guy who you think is homicidal down the hall and you call in a tip and they make you give your name, are you sure he's never gonna get that it was you who turned him in? As Naomi Shafi Riley has pointed out in the New York Post, black children are more than three times as likely to die by abuse and neglect than their white peers. Whatever the reasons for this, it means preventing abuse, of course, is going to disproportionately impact black families. But again, this is when DEI is taken to its fullest extent. It can absolutely turn deadly. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court of the United States took up yesterday a case from Idaho and West Virginia called Little vs. Hecox. It involves an adult biological male named Lindsay Hecox who sought to compete against the women at Boise State University. And another case in which a teenager who is a boy who says he's a girl wanted to compete against the girls. The athletes briefs to the justices dispute the trans players have an unqualified advantage over female competitors. This is silly, of course. It'll be interesting to see how the Supreme Court of the United States rules on this ruling in favor of the states would make it to legislatures can make common sense rules on transgenderism in athletics. More than half of states have already decided that they want to protect girls sports. The Supreme Court I would, I would think almost guaranteed to rule in favor of these states and localities attempting to protect girls from boys playing against them on their sports teams. And meanwhile, the situation in Iran continues to percolate. A lot of rumors that the Iranian government is going to move over the course of the next couple days in particular to completely shut down the protests by which we mean mass murder everybody. According to the Wall Street Journal, the White House is weighing Iran's nuclear talks offer. This seems foolish to me. What exactly is it that Tehran would offer that would be in any way credible? What is the thing that would be in any way credible? They have lied every step of the way. They are quickly seeking to rebuild their missile and nuclear facilities. What could they do at this point that would convince the United States and its allies that they don't have nuclear ambitions, that they aren't rebuilding their ballistic missile programs? All Iran is attempting to do right now is delay for a couple of days while they kill everybody that is Pretty obvious. Unsurprisingly, there is some conflict inside. According to the Wall Street Journal, the top echelons of the administration. President Trump is leaning toward authorizing fresh military strikes because his instincts are excellent when it comes to the Middle east, as he has proved over and over again. The Abraham accords in the 12 Day War and the end of the Gaza War being excellent examples. However, some senior administration aides led by the Vice President are urging President Trump to try diplomacy before retaliating against Iran for killing protesters. How for, for how long? For how long? Iran could have called at any time. Why precisely should you wait while they mow down the protesters by the hundreds or thousands of instead of supporting the protesters? What is the, what is the goal you seek and why does the timeline not. What is the timeline here? Speaking on Sunday to reporters on Air Force One, President Trump said the Tehran messaged Washington a day earlier that it was willing to enter negotiations over its years long nuclear program. President Trump said a meeting is being set up but that the United States was still looking at very strong options he could authorize before discussions. Well, if they wanted to, you know, negotiate, maybe a precondition for the negotiation would be don't murder your protesters and turn the Internet back on. How about that? How about you want to negotiate? You don't want the United States to say ship guns to the, to the dissidents or to take your oil tankers or to perform any sort of military strike on IRGC facilities. How about you open up the Internet and stop killing people? How about set that as a precondition to talks, not unconditional talks, while you murder all of the people who are putting pressure on, on the regime. President Trump supposedly will meet with senior aides to determine his approach. The options could include ordering military strikes on regime sites or launching cyber attacks, approving new sanctions, boosting anti regime accounts online. Vice President Vance, according to the Wall Street Journal, while generally resistant to engaging in conflicts, as opposed to whom I think most people are not generally in favor of engaging in conflicts for their own sake, remains open to striking Iran according to a person familiar with his thinking, believing the country is a threat to the United States. Well, I'm glad that he has changed his mind about that because obviously he took the opposite position originally with regard to striking Fordo. The United States does not currently have an aircraft carrier in the Middle East. The United States could still use bombers, air force jet fighters or naval assets to strike Iran. Iranian officials are saying they might attack the Americans if they did that. That would be the end of the regime, bar none. End of story. So they're, they're not going to do that in any serious way.

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Ben Shapiro (36:21)

Experian well, joining us on the line to discuss all of this is retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward, senior national security expert with firsthand experience inside Iran. He actually grew up in Iran and was asked by President Trump to serve as National Security Advisor. Vice Admiral, thanks so much for the time. Really appreciate it.

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (36:40)

Good to be with you, Ben. Thank you.

Ben Shapiro (36:42)

So let's talk about what's going on in Iran. Obviously these are ground shaking moments that we're talking about witnessing in Iran. What's the serious possibility that the Iranian regime topples? What would it take for that to happen?

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (36:54)

Oh, support of the Iranian people. It's got to happen from within. And they have, I think what's different now. We've seen snippets of this with the green Green Movement in 2009, the, the terrible protests after Amin, what she experienced. But now you have the bazaars, the guys who run the markets, the guys who run the business. You have politicians, you have the everyday folk. Everyone's behind it now. So you have a mass you'd not been before. So the numbers are much different now. Number two is, but we gotta help enable them. I think President Trump in his statement that we stand behind and support the admin, support the people of Iran, yet hold the regime accountable is a big change as well. So I think there are numerous steps and entities, not only the US but our allies in the region such as Israel and others, there are steps we can take to support the people of Iran and really bring this long overdue change to fruition. So in my mind it's not a if this is more when.

Ben Shapiro (38:10)

So I want to get to how a change would actually occur. What would be necessary to push it in a second. First, I want to point out that something really different is going on this time because the circumstances have changed. Not only have the sanctions placed on the Iranian Government by the Trump administration in term one and then reimposed in term two absolutely destroyed the Iranian economy. I mean, the real is is basically worthless. I mean, it is a fraction, a fraction, a fraction of a century of an American dollar at this point. The economy there is so bad that they were actively talking about shifting the entire population of Tehran out of Tehran and not making it their capital anymore thanks to water and power shortages. But also the guarantee, the sort of quiet guarantee that the, that the mullahs made was that Iran would at least be a military powerhouse capable of spreading its tentacles all over the region. Since October 7th, obviously Iran's tentacles have been chopped off one by one by the IDF, culminating in that 12 day war which itself culminated in President Trump ordering that incredible sortie against the Fordo nuclear facility with the B2. And so that means that just on a military level, it seems as though the population knows that the irgc, when they're not shooting Iranian citizens, are a paper tiger abroad.

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (39:18)

That's exactly right. All the lies have been illustrated to be lies. Not only are they failed militarily, they've failed governance, they're not taking care of the Iranian people. And they've had to suffer under this regime for decades. And it's reached a real boiling point now where there is an opportunity for them to drive that change. I couldn't agree with you more. And I think as we came out of the war in Iraq, many administrations who were afraid to be engaged did not want to use force. They didn't want to be embroiled in the Middle east and saw this as a potential conflict. So they used a policy of a common accommodation and appeasement. You're back to an administration that understands real politic, national security that's not driven by ideology, by common sense, and they're willing to use force to reinforce those national security interest. And if you find an Iran government in Iran that provides for their people, wants to grow and prosper as they did under the shah in the 60s and 70s, it's saying not only the geopolitical contact of the region, but broader because our adversaries rely on them to be a part of their access of evil that has now been deteriorated and eradicated. So, yeah, it changes everything, Ben.

Ben Shapiro (40:41)

So when we look at the actual mechanics of how a change would be effectuated, obviously if the Iranian people are able to gain control, for example, of military bases, take over the weaponry, then everything changes. But one of the biggest questions, and this has happened multiple times, it's why I think a lot of people are still extremely worried, as they should be, is that the IRGC just comes out of the shadows, turns off the Internet and shoots everybody. And it seems as though that is what the IRGC is in the middle of engaging in right now. The Internet has been down for days on end at this point. They're trying to turn Iran into a black box where nobody can find out what's happening. President Trump has said that if there's evidence that there are mass shootings being carried out by the irgc, he will act. The question becomes what sort of action would be sufficient to sort of allow for the final cracks to emerge in this edifice. There's been some talk, for example, about going after the Iranian tankers that are in the Gulf of Aden, taking their oil ships, preventing them from being able to export. The Iranian economy's already trashed. And so whether or not that makes a big difference is a question up for debate. I suppose. If you were advising the president, what sort of action would you be looking at in order to help the protesters effectuate their goals here?

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (41:48)

I think that you've hit one of those rheostats. You know, not only have we sanctioned the oil, but if we embargo it, we stop it. That's additional pressure on the regime. I got to remember I was in Frankfurt airport a few months ago, and I'm listening to an Iranian on his phone talking to his boss, hey, sir, I can't sell stuff because, you know, we're sanctioned and all. And so when I got off the phone, I talked to him. I said, how bad's an Iran? He said, look, they're murdering any dissidents. It's horrible. But he said to me, and you'll like this one, Ben. This would never happen in the United States. I go, why? Because you guys have guns. You're government camper. So this Iranian knew our second Amendment and knew why we have guns. More than that. So if I had, if I could get a million guns and 10 million rounds of ammo into the dissidents so that they're armed to fight the. And it's not just the irgc. Don't forget that. I think one of the most important components of this is the Bashish. The volley volunteer militia has been that kind of intel apparatus at the very tactical of pointing out and identifying. So if we can get the Bashige to flip and be part of the solution, not the problem, that presents a big threat to the irgc. The military, a professional military, which is sometimes at odds with the irgc, how do we get them to flip? So I think armed force going after these different entities of power that the regime has, and so similar where we disbanded the military in Iraq, we may here be able to use a professional military to go after the irgc. So I think all those elements of power we could go after directly and indirectly, I would do indirectly first as opposed to any strikes. And those strikes would be focused on those elements of power that had the least chance of flipping being the irgc, so to speak. So I think this administration has shown they're willing to do that. The President does what he says he's going to do and he's done that in Venezuela. So the people in Iran are hearing that. And I think for the regime it's a do or die. So how they leverage and build those building blocks and enhance that rheostat to crank up the heat is the solution here.

Ben Shapiro (44:10)

So as you say, the President has said over and over and over, this is a red line. The red line clearly has been violated at this point and continues to be violated. And so the question again becomes what the President is willing and able to do. Obviously no one here, and I've said this a thousand times, no one is talking about an Iraq style invasion of Iran. There are a bunch of people out there who are lying and saying that so that the United States does nothing because they present a false choice between an Iraq style full scale occupation of Iran, which is totally unnecessary since the population does not want the current regime. And as you mentioned, there are people inside the military apparatus, not the irgc, but the actual Iranian military, who are not in favor of the IRGC or the Molocracy. So these are apples and oranges comparisons. One of the concerns that's been put forward has been the possibility of an Iranian counter strike. So Iran of course has been threatening to fire a missile barrage at Israel. They of course did that during the 12 Day War to some minor effect, did some property damage, killed a few people, but not overwhelming for us by any stretch. They are suggesting, of course, that they will fire directly at American bases in places presumably like Kuwait, possibly like Qatar, or on the Iraqi border in Erbil. You know, how much should we take those threats seriously and how significant would those threats be?

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (45:19)

Look, we've seen them do those strikes in Israel, Qatar and other places. It's been very ineffective. And so to me, if they go to that step, that would justify our ability to strike and take out not only their military, the irgc, if anything we want to. But so that to me would represent their last straw, understanding that it's do or die for them. And we've been very effective in countering those. So I think our capabilities far exceed them. And the fact that they have no air defenses so anyone can fly over the country, we could strike at anything just illustrates again how vulnerable that is. So I think you always got take credibility in their statement by understanding there's really not the bang they had before under those threats. And again, I think that would really be the final straw that would end all this. But again, if you want long lasting security and stability in Iran, it has to come from within. So just like our adversaries for decades have been coming out at us asymmetrically because they know they did and would lose in direct military confrontation, I still think that's the situation here. And we're best supported by helping the Iranian people bring this to closure.

Ben Shapiro (46:41)

So, Vice Admiral, you know, here's the hundred thousand dollar question. What is the chance that this actually succeeds? Obviously this is not our first round here with major Iranian protests. We saw them in 2009. This current round actually really started in about 2022 and has kind of increased over the course of the last three years or so. What are the, what are the real chances that the Iranian regime falls and how quickly would that happen?

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (47:06)

All right, one more timeline. But yes, it's going to happen. If we and our allies, Israel support it, it will happen. And in my opinion, we should not squander this opportunity. We need to bring this to fruition. It's long overdue and it just changes everything. So we need to support the Iranian people and bring this to closure.

Ben Shapiro (47:28)

Well, it's Vice Admiral Robert Harward, national security expert with firsthand experience inside Iran. Vice Admiral, thank you so much for your time and your insight.

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (47:36)

Thanks, Ben. Good to be with you.

Ben Shapiro (47:38)

Alrighty, folks. Coming up, the show continues for our members. Democrats seem to be changing their tune about Iran and Hamas. Weird. Weird. Remember, in order to watch, you have to be a member. If you're not a member, become a member. Use code Shapiro. Check out for two months free on all annual plans. Click that link in the description and join us.

Characters from The Pendragon Cycle (Marlon, Princess Garrus, etc.) (47:54)

What was it like, Marlon, to be alone with God? Is that who you think I was alone with? Maradin, I knew your father.

Ben Shapiro (48:11)

I am yet convinced that he was not of this world.

Characters from The Pendragon Cycle (Marlon, Princess Garrus, etc.) (48:16)

Poor man. Know of the great Taliesin. Who am I, father, that the gods should war for my soul? Princess Garrus, saviour of our people. I know what the bull God offered you. I was offered the same. And there is a new power at work in the world. I've seen it. A God who sacrifices what he loves for us.

Ben Shapiro (48:42)

We have. We are each given only one life.

Experian Advertiser (48:43)

Singer.

Characters from The Pendragon Cycle (Marlon, Princess Garrus, etc.) (48:45)

No. We're given another. I learned of Yazu the Christ. And I have become his follower.

Vice Admiral Robert Harward (48:54)

He's waiting on a miracle.

Characters from The Pendragon Cycle (Marlon, Princess Garrus, etc.) (48:55)

And I think you can give him one. Trust in Ya'. Zul. He is the only hope for men like us. Fader. Britain never rests in the hands of the great Light.

Industry Expert on AI and Housing (49:05)

Great light. Great darkness. Such things mattered to me then.

Characters from The Pendragon Cycle (Marlon, Princess Garrus, etc.) (49:10)

What matters to you now? Mistress of lies.

Industry Expert on AI and Housing (49:14)

You, nephew. The sword of a high king. How many lives must be lost before you accept the power you were born to wield? So, clinging to the promises of a.

Characters from The Pendragon Cycle (Marlon, Princess Garrus, etc.) (49:32)

God who has abandoned you. I cannot take up that sword again.

Industry Expert on AI and Housing (49:36)

You know what you must do.

Characters from The Pendragon Cycle (Marlon, Princess Garrus, etc.) (49:40)

Great Light, forgive me. Time has come to be reborn, Sam.