Transcript
Ben Shapiro (0:00)
2026 could be an ugly year for Republicans at the polls. That is probably why Democrats are doing what they are doing in Minnesota. We'll get to all of that. We'll be joined by Senator John Kennedy and Matt Walsh and officer Brandon Tatum. So a big show today. First this year for Valentine's Day, we have something special for you. Take a look. Okay.
Matt Walsh (0:19)
I wish.
Ben Shapiro (0:31)
No, not even close. 2, 3, whatever. You know what? 2, 3, 4.
Matt Walsh (0:44)
I cannot believe we're back here again.
Ben Shapiro (0:45)
Ben. If the Ben Shapiro shows.
Matt Walsh (0:47)
Mom.
Ben Shapiro (0:48)
And Ben After Dark is a cool moment. You j. You know, like irresponsible. Ben After Dark Season 2 premieres Friday the 13th. Yes, that is intentional. Mark your calendars. Valentine's Day weekend is going to be very, very bad. Well, Republicans are beginning to pull every alarm that they can find about the 2026 elections. The reason being that there was a state Senate race in Texas that was in a district that President Trump won by 17 points. It shifted 14 points in favor of the Democrats. That's a 31 point swing in that Texas Senate race. And Republicans who are close watchers of politics have noticed that a bunch of special elections ranging from Texas to Mississippi to Georgia, deep red areas are moving toward Democrats. Well, the calci markets right now and call she is one of our sponsors. They say 63% of people say the Republican party is going to retain control of the u. S. Senate. 37% say that they believe the Democrats will take control of the Senate. But those are the worst numbers for the Republican Party this cycle. So those numbers seem to be converging again. The hopes for the Democratic Party in this election cycle are going up. The cash markets also suggest 78% of people saying Democrats are going to win the House. Only 22% saying that Republicans will retain control of the House. And so the question becomes what exactly can Republicans do about it? Well, there's a fascinating poll from Harvard Harris that is out. It shows that Democrats are plus 4 on the generic congressional ballot, which is a bad number for Republicans right now in the Senate, obviously there are a bunch of vulnerable seats for Republicans including Maine where Susan Collins, according to various betting markets is now the underdog in that race. In, in North Carolina there is a Republican Senate seat that that is being abdicated by Thom Tillis. That seat looks like it is leaning toward the Democrats. You have Ohio, which is Sherrod Brown is running against John Husted. Sherrod Brown could easily pull that off. So you could easily be at 50 before you know it. And of course there are A couple of other seats like Alaska, Iowa, Texas, which are reaches for Democrats. But in a really bad year, you could see them move in the direction of the Democrats. Now, there is some news for Republicans in this Harvard Harris poll that is at least a little bit encouraging, and it shows some glimmers of light things that Republicans theoretically could do to change their fate in 2026. So, first of all, both the Democrats and the Republicans have approval at 44%. And so nobody really likes either one of these parties very much. There are some significant PR failures that Republicans have had to overcome here. According to this Harvard Harris poll, 56% of Americans say that the economy is shrinking, which it is not. 66% say inflation is above 3%, which it is not. So there's a serious informational gap here, and the administration needs to do a better job of fighting that informational gap. The top issues, according to the American people, are inflation and affordability, 42%, immigration at 15%, those are the top two issues. On immigration, the administration has some significant advantages on inflation and affordability. They've got a problem. Only 38% of Americans say the economy is on the right track. With that said, Americans are split about 50, 50 on whether the economy is weak or strong. 40% of Americans say their financial situation is getting worse. Some 35% say better. The most unpopular Trump policies with regard to the economy are on tariffs and inflation. And those two things are related because the president keeps shouting over and over and over about lowering the interest rates that leads people to worry about inflation. Because inflation has not yet been fully conquered, and because the president keeps touting his tariffs. And because those tariffs have impacted businesses in the United States, that's unpopular, too. If the president simply stopped talking about tariffs so much, or if the president were to stop putting such public pressure on the Federal Reserve to shift the interest rates, that probably would have some impact on how Americans are thinking about the future of inflation in the country. However, there is something really fascinating here in this polling, and that's about immigration. If you want to know why Democrats are creating absolute chaos in places like Minneapolis, the answer is they are trying to undermine President Trump's top issue. President Trump is most popular on the immigration issue. 51% of Americans still approve of President Trump's response to the anti ICE protests. 47% still approve of his crime policy. When it comes to his most popular policies, deporting criminal illegal immigrants comes in at 73%. For Americans, his most popular single set of policies are on immigration. Still, 67% of Americans oppose sanctuary city policies. 60% of Americans say Democrats are encouraging resistance to ICE, and 57% of Americans oppose them doing that. Now, with that said, 44% say that ice should only go after specific individuals who have committed crimes. 15% say that there should be broad sweeps for illegal immigrants. 29% say both. So Americans are pretty evenly split on whether they want to see criminal illegal immigrants targeted only or whether they want to see broader sweeps. With that said, targeting criminal illegal immigrants is the thing that most Americans approve, which is why, of course, Democrats are trying to necessitate that ICE and Border Patrol go after illegal immigration more broadly. And when it comes to PR efforts, trotting out various members of the administration to say over and over and over again that every single person is going to be caught and deported at Home Depot, that is bad politics. Forget about whether it's right or it's wrong for a second. It is not smart politics. In Minnesota, 58% of Americans say ice has gone too far. 62% say ice is violating civil liberties. Now, with that said, 53% of Americans oppose a government shutdown on the issue. So it looks like the Trump administration is actually starting to do the right things on PR with regard to Minnesota. Tom Homan has made an offer to Minneapolis saying, give us your criminals, which is the right policy. Again, from a PR perspective, targeting criminal illegal immigrants in the United states is an 8020 issue, with Republicans on the side of the 80 and Democrats on the side of the 20. According to the Wall Street Journal editorial board. President Trump's border czar, Tom Homan, said on Thursday in Minneapolis he's working on a drawdown plan for the federal immigration surge there, which will be possible dependent upon cooperation. So he's saying, listen, we will pull troops out of this area, federal agents out of this area, if you work with us. Homan's deportation priority, he says, is criminal aliens, public safety threats, and national security threats. We've got a lot of them to keep us busy. And he says, in order for us to make this happen without having to put large numbers of federal agents on the streets, we need cooperation with the locals. Quote, more agents in the jail means less agents in the street. That means fewer collateral arrests. Now, Democrats refuse to move along with that. The local jail in Minneapolis is run by the Hennepin County Sheriff's Office, and they say we do not assist with or comply with any civil immigration requests from ICE in our jail. We do not honor administrative detainers or administrative warrants. Okay, this is, again, a winning issue. For Republicans. And this is what they should focus on. Absolutely. This is what they should focus on. Here's the Hennepin county sheriff, however, blaming ICE for low trust between the public and law enforcement. Do you worry about Operation Metro surge.
