The Ben Shapiro Show: Ep. 2381 – "BOOTS on the GROUND in Iran"

Date: March 5, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Ben Shapiro provides a comprehensive, conservative breakdown of the fast-developing situation in Iran following dramatic military actions by the United States and Israel. Focusing on regime change, U.S. war aims, the role of the Kurdish minority, and global reactions, Shapiro argues for an "America First" perspective, outlines likely scenarios for Iran, and discusses the ramifications for U.S. foreign policy and regional allies. The episode also features an in-depth interview with Diliman Abdulkader, founder of American Friends of Kurdistan, exploring Kurdish aspirations, U.S. reliability, and the future of Iranian opposition movements.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Definitions and Realities of Regime Change (00:00 - 12:00)

• Ben Shapiro critiques both left- and right-wing arguments against regime change in Iran, emphasizing that not all regime change scenarios are "Iraq-style" U.S. occupations.
  • Quote: “Regime change is not all the same…what we're talking about here is regime destruction or replacement.” (05:00)
  • Examines historical instances: success stories (Germany, Japan, South Korea, Panama, Chile) and failures (Libya, Afghanistan, the 1979 Iranian Revolution).
  • Asserts that while U.S.-led regime change can be risky, supporting the Iranian Ayatollah regime is categorically worse.^

Notable Quotes

• Ben Shapiro (00:33):
  “A lot of people are asking questions about what happens after the ayatollahs are gone in Iran. Right? Great question... America first, almost certainly something better than what was in reality.”
• On Regime Change:
  “Regime change implies a long standing commitment in which the United States engages in serious nation building efforts. Sometimes that works... Sometimes it doesn't.” (03:22)

2. The Nature of the Iranian Regime (06:55 - 08:00)

• Patrick Bet-David and panel describe the brutality and theocratic extremism of the current and past Ayatollahs.

  • Quote:
    “Female prisoners who are virgins must be raped before execution to prevent them from entering heaven. Isn't he an amazing guy? To say something like that.”
    — Rob, quoting Khomeini (06:55)

• Ben Shapiro argues:
  “That is the regime. And... that is the nature of the regime.”

3. U.S. War Strategy: Boots on the Ground or Not? (10:54 - 14:00)

• AOC's Critique (10:54):
  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warns against another “forever war.”

  • “The vast majority of Americans are against a war with Iran... a forever war will not resolve that issue.”

• Shapiro’s Response:
  Shapiro asserts that large-scale American troop deployments are not the plan.

  • Quote: “There will be boots on the ground in Iran and there should be — they just won’t be ours.” (11:46)
  • He suggests U.S. special operators are likely already present, but mass deployment is politically and militarily off the table.

• Caroline Levitt (12:54):
  “They're not part of the plan for this operation at this time, but I certainly will never take away military options on behalf of the president...”

4. The Kurdish Factor: Iran’s Internal Diversity and Armed Insurgency (14:00 – 22:00)

• Iran's Ethnic Makeup:
  • Persians are about 60-65% of the population; significant Azerbaijani, Kurdish, Lur, and other minorities.
  • Many Iranians are secular or non-practicing; potential for internal dissent against the regime.
• Historical Relationship with the Kurds:
  • Kurds have regularly aligned with Western interests, notably against ISIS and Saddam Hussein but have often been betrayed.
  • In recent weeks, five Kurdish opposition parties have united, forming an armed coalition.
    • “Iranian Kurds have been an active part of recent pushback against the Islamic Republic, including the 2022 Women Life Freedom Movement and the major protests that shook Iran in late 25 and early 26.” (20:10)
• U.S./Israeli Support:
  • Reports (CNN, The Atlantic) suggest the U.S. and Israel may be arming Kurdish groups, although the White House officially denies this.
• Risks of Sectarian Conflict:
  • Pitch for supporting Kurdish autonomy, but caution about possible fragmentation or civil war if ethnic militias gain strength.
  • Karim Sajadpour (21:51):
    “...if Iranians feel that it's a US strategy to essentially try to factionalize and splinter the country, that's something that they're very sensitive about...”

5. America's Strategic Interest: Chaos, Opportunity, and Priorities (22:18 – 29:31)

• Shapiro’s Argument:

  • Even chaos is preferable to the current Ayatollah regime.
  • The main American priority is preventing the consolidation/restoration of the Islamic Republic.
  • Providing arms to ready and organized minorities like the Kurds is practical given logistical constraints and the lack of widespread, armed revolutionaries within Iran.

• Elbridge Colby (28:16):

  • Outlines U.S. campaign as focused and limited:
    “...a military campaign with a focus on degrading and destroying the Islamic Republic of Iran's ability to project military power in the region and potentially beyond.”

• Impact on China:

  • Disruption of Iranian oil supply is a strategic blow to China, a major consumer of Iranian crude, adding to Beijing’s economic woes.

6. European & International Responses (29:31 – 39:43)

• Shapiro’s Critique:
  • Mocks European reluctance and moralizing, especially the UK, France, Spain, and NATO as being slow or ineffective allies.
  • Asserts Europe should be grateful for U.S. and Israeli action, given Iranian support for Russia in Ukraine (e.g., drone supplies).
  • Calls out Russia’s rhetorical support for Iran but questions their substance.
  • Dismisses warnings from European leaders as irrelevant.

7. Ground Truth: Interview with Diliman Abdulkader, American Friends of Kurdistan (40:13 – 56:59)

Topics Covered

a. Likelihood and Nature of U.S. and Israeli Support (40:37 – 41:53)

• Diliman Abdulkader:
  "The Kurds are pro American with Western values. They are battle hardened... I think this is very probable."

b. Kurdish Motivations: Secession or Regime Overthrow? (41:53 – 43:56)

• Kurds are not aiming for control of Iran’s government; focused on liberating their own region.

• Hope is Kurdish action will inspire wider anti-regime uprisings.

  “The Kurds have no interest in taking over Iran... What the Kurds will do is liberate their areas in northwest Iran... That will hopefully inspire the rest of the country...to rise against the regime.”

c. Relationship Between Iranian and Iraqi Kurds, and U.S. Guarantees (43:56 – 46:48)

• IRGC threatens both Iraqi and Iranian Kurds; U.S. support is essential.
• Kurds want long-term U.S. guarantees (no-fly zones, arms, international recognition) and to avoid past betrayals.

d. The Reliable Partner Question (46:49 – 49:41)

• Kurds have long supported U.S. interests, but have often been abandoned for geopolitical expediency.
• Recent betrayal in Syria highlighted.

e. Kurdish Coalition and Security Concerns (49:41 – 52:31)

• Multiple Kurdish groups, including some labeled as terrorists by the U.S. (largely to appease Turkey), are uniting against the IRGC.
• Argues the PKK and its Iranian affiliate, PJAK, are not threats to the U.S. or Europe, that label is about placating Turkey.

f. The Kurdish Offensive’s Utility to U.S. Strategy (52:31 – 56:50)

• Kurdish uprisings tie down regime forces, providing potential openings for wider revolution.

• Upside: weakened Ayatollah regime, potentially pragmatic new leadership, or further opportunity for secular Iranians to rise.

• Risks: lack of arms among civilian dissidents, uncertain goals among Kurdish factions, the need for U.S. follow-through so Kurds are not abandoned.

  “The ultimate goal should be regime change and that's up to the people…” — Diliman Abdulkader (54:43) “The only thing that's holding the Kurds back right now from directly engaging in a full on war with the IRGC is the guarantees that they have not received from the United States yet.” (56:40)

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Rob on Khomeini’s atrocities:
  “Female prisoners who are virgins must be raped before execution to prevent them from entering heaven.” (07:00)

• Ben Shapiro, on Iran's future:
  “Even chaos... is preferable to the current Iranian regime.” (25:30)

• Karim Sajadpour, on U.S. strategy and Iranian nationalism:
  “...if Iranians feel that it's a US strategy to essentially try to factionalize and splinter the country, that's something that they're very sensitive about.” (21:51)

• Elbridge Colby, on objectives:
  “...a focus on degrading and destroying the Islamic Republic of Iran's ability to project military power in the region...” (28:16)

• Diliman Abdulkader, on Kurdish intentions:
  “The Kurds are not land grabbers...they are not trying to split the country.” (42:28)

Recap and Takeaways

• U.S. and Israeli air dominance is crushing Iran’s military infrastructure. The next phase may involve Kurdish ground forces, with U.S. support behind the scenes.
• Regime change is not “one size fits all”; in Iran, it looks more like regime weakening, not direct U.S. nation-building.
• Kurdish groups are ready to fight, but lack guarantees and fear betrayal.
• Risks include: sectarianism, potential fragmentation, empowering the “wrong” faction, and civilian cost.
• Best-case scenario: Iranian secularists topple the regime;
  Worst-case scenario: Ayatollahs regain/spread power (deemed highly unlikely by Shapiro).
• International scene: Europe is reluctant, and Russia and China are strategically weakened by Iran's troubles.

Important Timestamps

| Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------| | Regime change terminology & historical cases | 00:00–06:55 | | Atrocities of the Khomeini regime | 06:55–07:34 | | Regime change in Cuba discussion | 08:01–08:47 | | AOC's "forever war" critique | 10:54–11:46 | | Boots on the ground: what it really means | 11:46–14:00 | | Iran’s internal ethnic/religious divisions | 14:00–16:00 | | Kurdish history, coalition, and uprising | 16:00–22:00 | | Sectarian war and ethnic fears | 21:29–22:18 | | U.S. priorities: chaos vs. stability | 22:18–29:31 | | Effects on China & Europe | 29:31–39:43 | | Interview with Diliman Abdulkader starts | 40:13 | | Kurdish objectives, U.S. deals, PKK debate | 41:53–52:31 | | Final points on guarantees & regime prospects | 52:31–56:50 |

Final Thought

Ben Shapiro closes by reiterating:

• The U.S. and its allies have achieved air dominance.
• The Ayatollahs’ enshrinement is now highly unlikely, but more instability is probable.
• The Kurds are positioned as the key actors in the coming ground fight, representing both opportunity and challenge for U.S. strategy in Iran.

For anyone seeking a thorough understanding of current U.S.–Iran dynamics, regime change debates, and the shifting alliances of the Middle East, this episode is a detailed and opinionated resource—sharply critical of the left, the Biden administration, and especially Europe, while making overt the constraints, pitfalls, and potential successes of U.S. involvement in Iranian affairs.