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Ben Shapiro
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Ben Shapiro
President Trump says we have a deal with Iran. An amazing deal for us and our allies. Iranians say they have a deal with the United States. The worst possible deal for us and our allies. You know who doesn't have the deal? Any of us. We do not have words. We do not have text. We have many, many, many stories. And I'm not about to take anybody's word for it when clearly there is no solid information for any of us to look at, which is kind of weird. So today we're going to break it all down. What we know, what we don't, and where all of this goes next. Plus UFC at the White House Elliot Page on being a real man and a badass move by the military in Venezuela. This is the Ben Shapiro Show. Foreign. So as I have been saying for months at this point, war is a simple calculus. It is about which side can take more pain. That's it. So if I can take more pain than you, I win. Even if you win on an absolute level, like you ex, you, you inflict more pain on me on an absolute level than I inflict on you, that doesn't matter. You don't actually win until the other side has experienced pain beyond what they are willing to bear. If the other side is willing to undergo the pain of having all of his limbs lopped off, and you're only willing to undergo the pain of a hangnail, the other side must only inflict minor pain. In order to win, you must inflict massive pain. And this was always the imbalance between the United States and Iran. In this whole deal. The United States had to lop off all the arms, all the legs, all eviscerate the leadership, make it so that Iran could not rise again. In order to achieve what we want in a deal, Iran, in order to exert pressure on us, basically had to fire some drones and missiles at shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and SM oil fields. Okay, so let's start with this. What would a good long term deal look like? First of all, let's point out nothing that's going on right now. It's just the news. Nothing that is going on right now is a long term deal. What we have right now is what is called a Memorandum of understanding. Supposedly it is a 60 day memorandum of understanding, which is basically kicking the can down the road because none of the major issues get solved in this memorandum of understanding. But let's talk about what a great deal would look like for the United States. And again, I am skeptical that the Iranians would give this up absent some sort of major regime change or the belief that they were on the verge of it. So what would a great deal, long term deal look like with Iran? This. This is not my list. This is the administration's list. No nuclear weapons or development or facilities. No ballistic missile development. No funding of terror apparatus abroad. Opening the Strait of Hormuz permanently without tolls. And then theoretically, when all of those have been verified, we could talk about opening up the economy. That's what a good deal would look like for the United States. So what would a bad deal look like, meaning a good deal for Iran? First, continuation of nuclear development, even if it's pushed off. Even if it's slower maintenance of nuclear facilities. Capacity to keep nuclear material in the country. Second, ballistic missile development revitalized. No sanctions on ballistic missile development. Money flowing into the country that could be used for additional Ballistic missile development, which would create that umbrella of defense and offense that would prevent action to get rid of their nukes. Third, continued funding of terrorism abroad. A rebuilding of the terror apparatus that Iran had prior to October 7th. Hamas in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, terrorist groups in Iraq. If they got more money coming in and they could continue to fund terrorism, that would be a win for them. Continued Iran control over the strait, the Strait of Hormuz. Basically being told by Iran and the tacit threat that anytime things went wrong, Iran could shut down the war. World economy again and again. The biggest one, lots more funding going into Iran. Because remember, the situation before this war is that Iran was basically on its last economic legs. Iranian rial had spiked from 42,000 per American dollar to 1 million per American dollar. That was before the war. Their economy was falling apart. That's why you had these gigantic riots in the streets, these gigantic protests in the streets which ended with the Iranians shooting some 42,000 people in a weekend. So if a bunch more money goes into Iran, that is a win for Iran. Okay? So that's the long term standard. Again, I'm setting the standards up front so we know what we're talking about. Because one of the things that I don't like when we talk about good deal, bad deal is being vague about what we are saying. Again, just to reiterate the five conditions for a good deal for the United States. No nukes, no ballistic missile development, no funding of terrorism abroad. Opening the strait permanently without tolling, and then theoretically opening up the economy. The best deal for the Iranians would look like continued nuclear development, even covert nuclear development, which would mean maintenance of their nuclear facilities in country. All supposed watering of nuclear material to be done in Iran. Them continuing to cheat and hide. Second, ballistic missile development. Third, funding of terrorism abroad. Fourth, continued control over the strait. And fifth, more funding going into Iran while all of that was happening. Okay, that would be the terms of a permanent deal, good and bad. So what we have here, again, what we have, this is just what the Trump administration is saying. What Iran is saying is not a deal. It is a memorandum of understanding. It is a temporary agreement. All right, coming up, we'll ask what a good temporary agreement, what a good memo of understanding would look like here versus a bad one, versus a mediocre one. First, 100 years ago, if you wanted to sell something, you needed a storefront. 50 years ago, you needed a warehouse. 20 years ago, you needed a team of developers. Today, you could be sitting at your kitchen table with a laptop and an idea. That's it. You can design products, market products, sell products, ship products, build an actual business from almost anywhere. The challenge isn't opportunity anymore. The challenge is execution. And that's why Shopify has become the e commerce platform behind millions of businesses around the world and 10% of all E commerce in the United States. 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What would that look like? Well, it would look like anything that facilitated a good permanent agreement. Okay, so whatever got us toward the goal of no nukes, no ballistics, no funding of terrorism, and opening the strait permanently, that would be a good temporary deal. A mediocre temporary deal would ensure that Iran doesn't get any of the things that it wants long term, but it wouldn't achieve all the good stuff. So it wouldn't disarm them of nuclear weapons, for example, or ballistic missiles, but it would not release a bunch of money to them. It might temporarily open up the strait a little bit. It might release a small amount of money to them and then we would go home. But we would leave the sanctions on which is the most important thing. Not opening the Iranian economy, not allowing them to, in name or otherwise, tie their activity to terrorist groups in the region, not allowing them to rebuild their ballistic missile facilities with our money. Right, that, that would be a mediocre deal. A mediocre deal would basically be us packing up our stuff and going home. That'd be a mediocre deal. Why mediocre and not great? Well, because we've all done enormous, we've already done an enormous amount of damage to, to Iran's facilities You've already set them back tremendously. If we go home right now, then Iran will maintain some vestigial control over the Strait. It'll largely open because China wants it open. You won't achieve all the things you want to achieve. It won't permanently get rid of the Iranian nuclear program. It won't totally destroy their ballistic missile capacity. It won't change the regime, obviously. It won't prevent their funding of terrorism, but at least it wouldn't do their work for them. So what would a bad temporary agreement look like? What would a bad 60 day deal look like? Well, it would basically not only leave their nuclear development intact, it would incentivize their nuclear development. It would allow them to use more money for the ballistic missiles, it would allow them to extend their terrorism reach and it would allow full scale continued Iranian control over the Strait. That would be a bad temporary agreement. It would facilitate the elements of a bad deal. So which is it? We don't know. We literally do not know because the administration has not and will not release the text right now. Which they should. They should, because here's my deal. I'm happy to analyze a deal once I know what's in it. I cannot analyze a deal for or against until I know what the hell is in the deal. You don't know what a good deal looks like just because one side is saying good and the other side is saying bad. Right now we have two sides telling two very, very different stories. You have President Trump saying he got a good temporary agreement and JD Vance saying it's a brilliant temporary agreement. You have Iran saying it's a very, very bad temporary agreement. My hunch is that basically the temporary agreement doesn't do much at all. That basically the temporary agreement is the mediocre scenario that we leave. That they get a little bit of cash to open up the Strait of Hormuz, not enough to really revitalize their economy. The sanctions remain on them. We never get to any further negotiation on a nuclear weapons deal. We never, we never get to any further negotiation on ballistics or terrorism and they don't get fully reintegrated into the world economy. If that's the end of the war. If what the end of the war is is this basically goes with a whimper, not a bang, that essentially we're like, you know what? We did enough, we're out. That would still be a strategic win for the United States. It would not be the bad temporary agreement which makes the United States an advocate for Iran's bad policy. But we don't know because we don't have the text of the deal. So here is how it all went down. On Sunday afternoon, the Pakistani Prime Minister, Shabazz Sharif put out a statement. Now, again, I should point out here, I'm highly, highly, highly suspicious of a deal where Pakistan, Qatar and Iran are happy. I'm very suspicious of such a deal. Pakistan is a Chinese cutout and an open ally with Iran. So treating them as though they are an American ally is foolhardy. In any case, Shabazz Sharif says, quote, following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Okay, so let's start with this. That's a lie. It's not true. Because the United States and Iran cannot declare an end to hostilities in Lebanon. Why? Well, because Hezbollah is a terrorist group that is operating within the purview of the Lebanese government. Meanwhile, Israel is going to have to respond to terrorism across its border, as we'll see. If the United States is going to suddenly become an advocate for the idea that Israel can't defend itself, then this is a giant L for the United States and for our allies. In any case, Sharif says the official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19th of June in Switzerland. And what we are learning right now is that that would in fact include the Iranian parliamentary leader, Mohammed Khaliba and IRGC stand in and the Vice President, J.D. vance. I think that's a horrible idea. If you want to sign some sort of temporary cease fire, do it via DocuSign and be done. The idea of a gigantic photo op with the leader of the Iranian Parliament, who is a stand in for the irgc, is in fact a visual slap in the face to the tens of thousands of Iranians who died at the hands of Khaliba's friends. And not only that, it ties the Trump administration to whatever is the future of the Iranian regime. We didn't even do this with Delsi Rodriguez, who's actually working with us. The Iranians are not working with us. The idea of deploying the Vice President of the United States to do a handshake with an actual terror leader is a horrible idea. If you're going to do some sort of temporary deal and it's mediocre, fine, just, just do a docusign and be done. But the idea of a full scale celebratory photo op, all that does is re enshrine in the minds of the administration that they now have to pretend that the Iranians are reasonable and good and that anything they do is not a betrayal of the deal, which of course the Iranians will violate any deal. They violated every deal. There's not a deal the Iranians have ever signed. They've not violated. Sharif, the Prime Minister of Pakistan says, we would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of the state of Qatar. There we go. Qatar, the Iranian cutout for their support in reaching this agreement. Who else? Well, the visionary leadership of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which has played both sides, and the Republic of Turkey, which is in fact a gigantic terrorist support network for their immense contributions in this regard. With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony. So again, we are still very, very far from a quote, unquote, complete deal. But the President seems to be treating it like a deal is complete, which again is not the case. The President put out his own statement and here's what he said. Quote, the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all. Again, it's a, it's a ceasefire. Basically it's continuation of the ceasefire. He says, I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz. That is not what the Iranians are saying, by the way. And simultaneous herewith authorize the immediate removal of the United States naval blockade. Ships of the world. Start your engines. Let the oil flow. President Trump. Okay, I mean, I hope that's true. We'll find out. The President then said the strait will open upon the signing. He said this great deal will bring peace and security to the whole region. Many presidents have tried to make peace with Iran and all have failed before me. The leaders of the region have for the first time found a president who can help them achieve real peace with. With the opening of the strait. Upon the signing of the deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the region and the world. Okay, well, again, we'll find out. So I would be a lot more comfortable if I knew what the hell is in the deal because we are hearing very, very different stories from both sides here. And we do. I'm going to emphasize it again, I'm not saying it's a bad deal. I'm not saying it's a good deal. I suspect it's a mediocre deal. I don't know. I don't have the text. Once I have the text, you will have the text, and then we can all read it together. And I'm a big fan of such transparency. You know, when we are attempting to sign an agreement with the world's largest sponsor of state terrorism, responsible for the death of thousands of American troops across the region and the world. Coming up, President Trump outlines the deal. But then the Iranians also outline the deal. And let's just say they don't seem to agree on much. First, we live in a world where getting enough fruits and veggies into your daily diet still feels like a major logistical challenge. This is not a knowledge problem. 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Subscribe to the Whole Health System to Get an additional 10% off your subscription with promo code SHAPIRO. That's balanceofnature.com, promo code SHAPIRO. Again, got a great deal on. Go to balanceofnature.com today. Subscribe to that whole health system and get an additional 10% off your subscription with promo code SHAPIRO. That's balanceofnature.com, promo code SHAPIRO. So President Trump outlined the deal in an interview with the Wall Street Journal. He said the deal would include an agreement from Iran not to obtain nuclear weapons and an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also expressed no urgency to extract nuclear material from Iran, saying that could come later. So, first of all, we should point out that is not what he was Saying before, the President said that any deal would amount to Iran having to turn over the so called nuclear dust. So apparently that's not the case. Asked about skepticism and that the Iranians would actually agree, Trump said he wanted the strikes to end and they wanted the war to end too. I think they want to get it done. This has never happened to them before, he said. Trump said there would be strong inspections on the Iranians, but didn't specify how they would work. He said Iran would not be provided cash in the deal, but sanctions could potentially be lifted. Ok, so this is a problem. Pallets of cash, sanctions being lifted, same thing. Doesn't matter. If the money flows into Iran, that is a bad deal. And remember the elements of a bad deal, money flowing into Iran as they continue to covertly pursue nukes and build up their ballistic missile facilities and fund terrorism, that would be a bad deal. Now the President is saying that all of that is contingent on how they behave. We'll see. Trump said, quote, as far as regime change, I never cared about regime change. This is the third group we've dealt with. This is the most rational group yet. See, this is the problem. I don't like this. Okay? We should not be characterizing our opponents. Either they will be rational or they will not be rational. We do not have to characterize them as rational. The reason I say this is because once you have invested in the lie that a bunch of millenarian psychotics who believe that they are going to take over the world on behalf of Shia Islam are a rational negotiating partner, you are already operating in the wrong frame of mind. You have now invested yourself in, in whatever they say being true, which it almost certainly is not. They lie all the time. So what actually is this? The agreement paves the way for a 60 day period of negotiations over their nuclear program. In exchange for curbs on the program, Iran expects access to billions of dollars of cash blocked abroad and an end to sanctions that have stifled his economy. Okay, well, you know, we will see. Okay, so President Trump immediately went on the PR defensive with the New York Times. He said in an interview on Sunday afternoon the agreement he reached with Iran would ultimately assure that the Strait of Hormuz is permanently toll free. That's not what the Iranians are saying. Again, I don't know whether he's saying what he thinks is true or whether they're saying what they think is true. I don't have the text. I don't know. He says that he saved Israel from nuclear obliteration. Well, again, that is Far from clear at this point in time. Obviously. Trump also insisted that if Iran failed to reach a final nuclear accord with the United States, he, he would restart military attacks on Tehran or make the United States the guardian of the Middle east in return for 20% of the region's revenues. The problem is you can't keep threatening this without doing it. That is the really, really biggest problem in the Middle East. You cannot issue empty threats and your bluff gets called over and over and over again. And then you just keep saying it's not a big deal, ceasefires get violated and you say it's not a big deal if you blow your credibility, you have a problem in the Middle East. And again, I'm not accusing the President of doing that. But if he keeps issuing threats and the Iranians keep violating the rules, and then he encourages our allies not to actually punish them for violations, that puts them in the catbird seat with these negotiations. So Trump, while characterizing the Iranians as very reasonable, says that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is a very difficult guy. Okay, I'm just going to be clear. One of these countries has been flying sorties next to the United States and putting the lives of its own soldiers at risk next to the United States, one of these countries has been trying to kill American soldiers. So probably we should, you know, be a little bit more measured in our critiques of our allies and a little bit more measured in our praise of our enemies. According to the New York Times, Trump seems to be describing Iranian concessions the country has not yet made or that have been kicked to the follow up negotiations. The Memorandum of understanding, for example, only suspends tolls in the strait for 60 days and then promises a regional dialogue about the future. Iran had never charged tolls before the war. So basically Trump is celebrating a return to the pre war status quo. So when I say, so, this is Trump's version of the deal. His version of the deal is we're moving toward nuclear disarmament, the Iranians are our wonderful partners, that eventually we'll get a permanently toll free Strait of Hormuz, all the rest. Ok, then there's what Iran is saying. Here's what Iran is saying. And this is one of the reasons, I suspect that actually there's not very much in this memo of understanding, because when you have two sides to essentially a term sheet and the term sheet says nothing, both sides can then construe that. They got everything from the term sheet. So according to Trump, he got everything. According to Iran, they didn't just get everything. They are basically the new global hegemon, according to Iran. Here is what's in the deal. One, an immediate and permanent cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. Again, the idea here would be that Iran has forced the United States to tell Israel it can't defend itself. Two, a US Commitment not to interfere in Iran's internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. So we would have to basically swear that forever we will never do anything that threatens the regime. Three, the complete lifting of the maritime blockade within 30 days. Four, a commitment of the United States to withdraw its forces from Iran's surrounding areas. Well, I mean, Iran's surrounding areas include Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Saudi. Five, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under arrangements determined by Iran. Now, again, not toll free. They get to determine how it's how it goes, according to Iran. Six, the suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, as well as full Iranian access to the resulting financial revenues. So no sanctions anymore. Again, if Iran's characterization of this deal is correct, it is in fact a horrific deal. If Trump's characterization of the deal is correct, it's a good deal. The reality, there's probably nothing in the deal. Number seven, a requirement for the United States and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran worth at least $300 billion. They want us to rebuild everything that got blown up. 8, 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement focused on nuclear issues and the complete revolution. Removal of all US Primary and secondary sanctions. Nine, Iran's reaffirmation of its commitments under the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty not to produce nukes. Oh, so they'll give us their word is what they say, in return for us relieving all sanctions on them and them having billions, hundreds of billions of dollars flowing into their coffers to spread terrorism, to build ballistic missiles and to covertly build a nuclear program. They will give their very, very durable word that they will not produce nuclear weapons. Point of fact, they have been a party to the Nuclear Non proliferation treaty since 1970, and they've been violating it since about that same time. 10. During the negotiation period. Negotiation period, The United States would not, would commit, not to increase its military forces in the region and not to impose any new sanctions. Eleven, the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets during the 60 day final negotiation period. So immediately they get $24 billion. I'll point out that Barack Obama gave them $12 billion if the Iranians had this right, it would be twice the amount that Obama gave them in the palace of cash. Half of the amount, according to the Iranians, would be made available to Iran before the negotiations even begin. 12 the establishment of a monitoring mechanism to implement the agreement. And 13, the final agreement would be endorsed by the UN Security Council, which would mean that now we would have to wait for the Russians and the Chinese to agree with us. And as they say again, final negotiations would not begin before the release of half of Iran's frozen funds, the suspension of Iran's oil sanctions and the lifting of the maritime blockade. Discussions regarding Iran's missile program and its support for resistance groups would be definitively excluded from the agenda. So that means that we would not negotiate over the missiles or over their support for terrorism. Alrighty. Coming up, we'll get into how this deal went down. And also we'll get to a very bizarre situation in which the United States could end up basically defending bad Iranian activity. We'll get to all that in a moment. First, people spend a lot of time talking about bringing manufacturing back to America. And don't get me wrong, that's great, but it's also worth noticing the industries that never actually left in the first place. One example, America's beverage companies. 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Check them out right now@wedeliverforamerica.org Again, that's wedeliverica.org Also, you know when your dad says that he doesn't want anything for Father's Day, that's not true. He expects something. He is testing you. So pass the test. Do yourself a favor, get him a daily wire plus gift membership while they are still 45% off for father's Day. Show your dad that you truly care with the gift of the Ben Shapiro show ad, free for a full year. Plus, with his membership, he'll get all of the other daily wire shows, hit documentaries, exclusive entertainment. So don't listen to dad when he says he doesn't want anything this year. Give him a gift he will actually be excited for. Show that you're the best kid. Go to dailywearplus.com gift use code DAD45. So here's the reason why there's a lot of confusion. Trump and fans are saying everything is hunky dory. The Iranians are saying, for them, everything is hunky dory. The reality, we have no clue at all. Zero clue at all. And again, the Iranians are. They basically spent the weekend mocking Trump. According to cnn, Iran's military force denied that Iran would sign an agreement with the United States on Sunday and criticized President Trump's unusual insistence on signing the agreement that day. In a post on Telegram, the group suggested that Trump wanted to schedule the signing to coincide with his birthday. So J.D. vance spent the weekend chastising critics of a deal that no one has seen, which, again, if the deal is Great, I understand JD's invested in it. I get it. I get the vice president's invested in it. He's been the lead negotiator. So he says, quote, I'm seeing a lot of fake information about a potential deal to reopen the strait and end Iran's nuclear weapons programs. First, Iranians are not receiving any cash and no funds are being released for simply signing a deal or attending a meeting. Okay, that is not what the Iranians are saying. The deal is structured to ensure that the United States and its allies are prioritized and that if the Islamic Republic of Iran meets its obligations, economic benefits will flow to them in the entire region. This deal has the potential to remake the region and lead to lasting peace. Okay, then, he says, I've noticed a couple of bizarre things in the reporting over the last few hours. First, people who rightly said Trump was a historic president a month ago, now criticizing a deal based on unconfirmed media reports. Well, I mean, you know, it's a great way to rebut unconfirmed media reports releasing the text of the deal. Turns out it's an amazing way to rebut those questions, actually. And again, I do think that President Trump doing what he has done over the past several months was an act of political heroism. I've said it dozens of times at this point. I have also said that you don't know the end of a war until you know the end of a war. A war can start off heroic and it can end ignominiously. It can end horribly if you end a war badly. I'm very proud of the President and what the military have, what they have achieved in destroying so much of Iran's forward capacity. It's amazing. If you blow that in negotiation, that is bad. He says second, people who say you can't trust a word said by the irgc, who apparently believe anonymously source social media posts the President is going to get us a good outcome one way or the other. Well, I mean, we'll see if the outcome is good when we see if the outcome is good, just like anything else. And as far as this idea, he says people who say you can't trust a word said by the IRGC apparently believe anonymously sourced social media. Here's my question. Why do you trust the irgc? You are the one negotiating with the irgc. What makes you think they are going to keep their word? What are your verification protocols? What exactly are you asking of them? What are the terms of the agreement? Again, that's all I'm asking. What are the terms of the agreement? What are the terms of the agreement? It's that simple. JD Vance then suggested he went on CBS and he said that he and Trump, they're both skeptical of foreign entanglements. You can use military force, but you know, now they're coming to the end. Did you see yourself as someone who was forged by experience in the Marine Corps, served in uniform? Were you more skeptic of a war in the Middle east, broadly speaking?
J.D. Vance
Well, I'd say, by the way, I think the President's like this too. I think both of us are generally skeptical of foreign military entanglements. And I certainly was formed by my time in the Marine Corps to be very skeptical of some of these entanglements. But fundamentally that doesn't mean you can never use military force. And I think the goal here of preventing the Iranians from having a nuclear weapon, we're going to be successful at that goal. And when we are, that's going to be a very good outcome for the, for the American people.
Ben Shapiro
You know, his mouth to God's ears. But let's see the deal. Let's see the deal. Now again, According to Reuters, E4 nations, including the U.K. france, Germany and Italy said on Sunday the countries were prepared to lift sanctions on Iran and in response to steps on its nuclear program after the US And Iran reached A deal to end their war. Okay, so all of this came to a head a little bit over the weekend. The reason it came to a head is because when you show the Iranians that you are more invested in a deal than they are, they will put the screws to you. So here is what happened on Sunday. So Iran realized that the President really wanted a deal. And so what they did is they decided to use that desire for a deal in order to try to drive a wedge between the President and Israel. That's what they were trying to do. So they activated their terror group, Hezbollah in Lebanon to attack into Israel. Now, Israel had made clear over and over and over, if there were drones that flew into Israeli territory, then Dahiyya, which is an area of Beirut, which is where all the Hezbollah leadership lives, was going to get hit. And so that was the math. If Hezbollah hits inside Israel, Israel will hit inside Zakiya, which is in Beirut. And the Iranians, you remember just last week, the Iranians fired a bunch of missiles at the Israelis and Israel had to respond. And Trump at the time made what I thought was a signal mistake. He suggested that Israel should basically hold back, that Israel shouldn't go, that it was just, you know, a ceasefire with a little less firing than usual, which is not how a ceasefire works. What Iran was attempting to do with that whole game was to link its own action with its forward terrorist groups to. To use Hezbollah as its forward army. And the idea was that if you hit Hezbollah, then you are hitting Iran, and Iran can then respond to you. Now, what Israel is saying is we are not going to be held accountable for some deal with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz that doesn't allow us to protect ourselves. Right. That's what Israel is saying. So the goal for Iran was to get Trump so invested in the deal that Trump would get angry at Israel for defending itself. And they basically came to the verge of that over the weekend. So Hezbollah targeted northern Israel, and Israel then struck a Hezbollah target in Beirut's southern suburbs on Sunday. This particular Hezbollah target, by the way, was a Hezbollah commander who was responsible for the death of multiple Americans. Okay, so the Iranians immediately, they set it up. Right? The Iranians initiated this because their goal, again, was to reestablish the idea that America would deter Israel from defending itself out of a desire for a deal with Iran. So Mohammed Khaliba, a person who is supposed to co sign an agreement with the Vice President of the United States, put out a tweet. And his tweet said, again, this is before the announcement of the deal. He said the Zionist incursion shows that America lacks the will to fulfill its commitments. Okay, then the President put out a statement himself saying, quote, this morning's attack on Beirut should not have happened. So again, the idea is that Israel is just supposed to accept rockets incoming over its border targeting its citizens as well as drones, because Iran says so. And the President says this morning's attack on Beirut should not have happened, particularly on a special day when we are so close to a peace deal with Iran. Well, I will note that on that very special day, Hezbollah, which is an Iranian backed terror group, fired drones into Israeli sovereign territory. He said Israel has the right to defend itself against threats, but the attack it was responding to is very small and meaningless. Nobody was hurt, injured or killed and should not disrupt this important process. I really don't think the President would see it that way if, say, Mexico had fired a bunch of drones into American soil and blown them up and no one got killed. I don't think it works that way. I'm pretty sure it doesn't work that way, that you're, you're basically free. We shouldn't, we shouldn't spoil this. You know, we shouldn't spoil this very important day just because you fired a rocket at my house and you happen to hit my front lawn and not kill anybody. He said we are very close to a deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon. And all sides should stand down. All sides should stand down. One of these sides is acting defensively. One of them is a terrorist group responsible for the death of hundreds, if not thousands of Americans. He said there should be no more attacks by Israel anywhere in Lebanon, but there should also be no more attacks by any other party, including Hezbollah, against Israel. This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace. Let's not blow it. Thank you for your attention to this matter. I'm sorry, these are not kids fighting here. You have a terrorist group that has expressed its desire to wipe Israel from the map. And you have an American ally flying sorties alongside American pilots, sharing technology and military largesse both ways. And the idea is that that state is supposed to, what, just go silent when it is attacked? And then Trump went to Axios. And again, this is just the kind of signaling that is not useful. It is not good. It does not help negotiations. It looks like weakness. And the Iranians can sense weakness. They can smell it. The President went to Barack Ravid at Axios, who used to be like the Obama cutout, and then he became J.D. vance's team's cutout over at Axios. And now the President is using Barack Ravid as his cutout. And the President went to Axios and he said that he was shocked when his advisors called him to brief about that Israeli strike in Beirut and he fumed at Netanyahu, quote, it is so bad, I couldn't believe it. An hour before we're supposed to sign the deal. Trump acknowledged that Hezbollah attacked Israel first, but stressed it didn't cause any damage and nobody had been killed. Why did Bibi have to do an effing attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know he, he has no effing judgment. I let him know that. And then he said the same thing to the Wall Street Journal. Bibi shouldn't have done that. I didn't like it at all. They fired a couple of small missiles and missed their mark by a lot. They have to fire back then he'll fire back then. The whole thing never stops in the Middle East. So we are now back to what cycle of violence nonsense. That suddenly there's no difference between Israel defending itself and Hezbollah firing missiles and rockets at Israelis in Israeli territory. Okay, this is the problem. This is why I am skeptical. So again, I think that there's not much in this 60 day memorandum. I think the memo of understanding is probably open ended. I think it probably doesn't involve a lot of substantive discussion. I'm hopeful that essentially all it is is the United States saying, listen, we're done here. We've done most of the damage we're willing to do. You want to mess around in the straight of Hormuz, that's your business. The Europeans and the Chinese can take care of it. We're out. I am hopeful that's what this is and that basically there is no second step. Because I think a second step would be quite bad. But we're not going to know until we see the text. The one thing I will say with regard to the President and the Vice President and the signals they are sending, if you keep sending the signal to a terror backing regime that chants death to America that you want to deal with them so badly that you're going to tell our allies in the region to stand down, you are giving them an enormous amount afford momentum and that is a huge mistake that should not be done. And I hope that the President does not do that again. That signing ceremony in Switzerland should be canceled. It should not happen. A picture of the Vice President standing next to an IRGC cutout like Mohammed Khaliba is not something the United States should be celebrating. It is not a good idea. All right, well, meanwhile, speaking of unearned ire and silliness, a lot of people are very, very upset with this UFC fight that happened on the White House lawn yesterday. I don't care. I mean, honestly, like, I. I think it's kind of fun. It's fine. This isn't my jam. Right. I'm not, like a huge UFC fan. Just as a general matter. I know I have a lot of friends who are people who are very, very into it, but the sort of Americana of it, the kind of 1980s machismo of it, I'm kind of into it here. For example, was the UFC AI promo for the White House event featuring AI Teddy Roosevelt. I kind of love this. I mean, come on.
Dana White
But the landmark event we're witnessing tonight is not entirely without precedent. At the dawn of the 20th century, America's commander in chief, Theodore Roosevelt, brought flight sports to the White House. He often invited boxers, wrestlers, and martial artists, but not for entertainment or exhibition. They were summoned here to spar with the president. Roosevelt said, a nation that cannot fight is not worth its salt. So he trained like a fighter throughout his presidency, leading by example, living what he called the strenuous life. Not everyone likes the idea of fights at the White House. But as Teddy Roosevelt famously said, it is not the critic who counts. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, who at best knows in the end, the triumph of high achievement, and who, at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly.
Ben Shapiro
Okay, come on. That's just enjoyable. That's just enjoyable. Okay. And, and then over the weekend, they had the ufc. You know, they, they, they arrived. The. The UFC White House stage. You can see it is, like, enormous. I mean, they built this thing. It's a. It is a giant structure. Obviously. Here's what it looked like. Yeah, look at that thing. That is a monster structure on the lawn of the White House. Holds several thousand people, is my understanding. And then there was a weigh in that took place at the White House, and a bald eagle was flying overhead. Again, this is. I'm kind of into it. Like, like, really, it's. It's kind of great. Come on. Releasing bald eagles to fly over giant crowds at weigh ins at the White House. Kind of fun. I understand that a lot of people have scorned for this sort of thing. They prefer a different sort of display at the White House, which we'll get to in a moment, but, like it turns out lots of Americans like ufc. Lots of Americans also like motorcycles. It's okay. We're allowed to like motorcycles. My sons would be thrilled at this. Here's some motocross jumpers with the American flag, like, flying over the. The fountain at the White House. Fireworks and everything. Okay, I kind of into it. And then, of course, the President and Dana White walked out together to the sound of a trumpet fanfare. Hey, so again, listen, it's the. The part of the thing that's very funny about this is there was no one who was more in love with sort of the pomp and circumstance of the presidency than Barack Obama. And everyone was just. No, it was fine. It was great. He was at the NCAA tournament, and he was. And he was constantly going to big events and he would do speeches where he came out flanked by gigantic Greek columns and all the rest of it. Obama doing a little bit of this stuff with the American flag. It's fun. I'm kind of into it. And I will say it is a hell of a lot better than what the White House looked like under Joe Biden. I mean, you might remember the same lawn under Joe Biden on. This is. This is indeed Pride month, right? It's June, but under Trump, it's American Pride. And under Joe Biden, it was transgender pride, including men with fake breasts jiggling those breasts bare chested at the White House, just as Teddy Roosevelt would have wanted to. Can we take a Little video? Hi, Mr. President. It is an honor.
Elizabeth Warren
Trans rights of human rights.
Ben Shapiro
That is a. That is a man dressed as a woman taking a picture with the President. And then. And then it was time for some topless boob jiggling. Yep, this is. This was okay with Democrats. This stuff was fine with Democrats at the White House. And there it is. There it is at the White House. That's. That is. That was fine. The Democrats at the White House, Hunter Biden, however, found all of this wildly inappropriate and upsetting. I mean, and if someone knows inappropriate and upsetting it is parmesan cheese off the carpet, cocaine guy, seven hookers at a time on his laptop guy. He knows what is appropriate at the White House.
Abigail Spanberger
I like the ufc. I mean, I like watching it. They ruin it. They ruin it. It makes it hard now. Do you know what I mean? It literally does, because everybody's got to choose a side. They have to put it on the damn South Lawn. And I'm in the midst of the 250th anniversary. I mean, I can't understand why Dana White. I don't have anything against Dana White. No, but what the man, like, it's your brand. Like, how are you doing this? How are you doing this?
Ben Shapiro
How is this appropriate? Well, I mean, that guy knows appropriate. That guy knows appropriate. It's like getting marital advice from O.J. simpson here. Abigail Spanberger also says that a UFC fight at the White House, it's a sad lesson for our kids. Oh, man. This is where we drag out the kids. It's a sad lesson. If we. If we have a fight at the White House and motorcycles and American flags, that's a sad lesson for our kids. The best lessons for our kids are the ones where you say that they can become members of the opposite sex. Those are, like, the best lessons for our kids. Those are the ones we need.
Abigail Spanberger
People looked at the United States with reverence, with gratitude, because of our history of being a stable actor, a loyal partner, and the place where, like. And this is the 250th year, right, since our declaration of independency, an example for the rest of the world on what is possible when you build a nation based, based on ideas. And so the reality that there's going to be a UFC fight at the, you know, at the White House to celebrate our 250th, it's. It's a disconnect for me that I just think is a sad lesson for our kid.
Ben Shapiro
It is. It's a sad lesson. I mean, people fighting at the White House, what you really need is people receiving oral sex in the Oval Office of the White House to really, you know, restore honor to the White House. Jimmy Kimmel weighed in with a bad joke. I mean, what. What would. What would a day be without a Jimmy Kimmel bad joke? Well, better day, but we. Those days are uncommon there right now.
UFC CEO Dana White
There's a 46% chance of rain in Washington on Sunday. The UFC CEO Dana White said the fight will go on even if lightning strikes, which, if God wanted the White House to be struck by lightning, that would have happened 18 months ago. So I think they're pretty safe. In preparation for the party, Trump. Trump has been renovating the White House and the neighborhood around it. This right now is the current state of our nation's capital. You can see there it is, the awful tower, which now has a UFC Octagon in front of it. It has eight sides, one for each year of our lives the president has ruined. It is sponsored by Monster Energy Drink. And could there be a better metaphor for this administration than a giant Monster Energy logo on The White House log.
Ben Shapiro
Well, I mean, could there be a better logo for the Democrats than a topless transgender woman jiggling his boobs? And we all, we all have the things that we find offensive. Ms. Now of course is very upset that President Trump is quote unquote, using taxpayer dollars to throw himself a birthday party. Again, I noticed that there are a lot of other people at that party.
Anonymous Critic
Actually, this all feels absolutely absurd. It feels absurd to see this happening. It feels absurd for the timing of it happening. But we know Trump loves to use taxpayer dollars to throw himself a birthday party, just like he did last year with the military parade which very few people attended. I'm looking at this UFC event though, and all I see is dollar signs are not just the corporate sponsors you mentioned in Trump stakes at UFC or the fact that I believe one of the crypto funds that is sponsoring this event has ties to one of Trump's sons as an advisor as well.
Ben Shapiro
So yeah, again I think that the, let's put this with the outsized heartburn. The Democrats are suffering from this sort of stuff. It is connected in general to a sort of anti patriotism. There's a brand new poll out from NBC News. How proud are you to be an American? Overall, extremely invariant by party. GOP 90% of Republicans are extremely or very proud to be American. Democrats 29%, 3 in 10 by age 75% of people over 65 are very proud to be American. Only 36% of people aged 18 to 34 are. Well, that, that is a bit of a crisis for our country. See, here's the thing. It should not be dependent on who the President is, whether you're proud of the country. Joe Biden was president less than two years ago and I gotta say, I was still very proud of the country. I wasn't proud of him. I thought he was a bad president. But I was proud of us as a country because we're a great country. But Democrats seem to have a very difficult time with this. Again, every president has a mixed record. On the same weekend where the President was cutting a deal with Iran. That again, we do not have. The text of. The President did announce something pretty awesome. A successful strike on the leader of tren de aragua. That is Ms. 13, he says. In my direction, United States Southern Command delivered a swift and lethal kinetic strike to successfully execute Nino Guerrero, the infamous leader of Trend, one of the most bloodthirsty terrorist organizations on planet Earth. Before I returned to office, Joe Biden opened our southern border to millions of illegal criminals and allowed this foreign army to rape, maim and murder American citizens with total impunity. During my campaign, I pledged to expel these monsters from our country and bring justice to the families of those they slaughtered, including the precious 12 year old Jocelyn Nungarry, 22 year old Lake and Riley, and countless other beautiful souls. With this action, the US military has brought retribution for them, their families and their loved ones. Early in my administration I delivered on my promise to designate Trend Aragua as a foreign terrorist organization, support thousands of evil criminals and wage war against cartels. As a result, Trend Aragua terrorists no longer have safe haven in Venezuela or anywhere else. Because he said that we coordinated this action with Venezuela. Now coordinating with Venezuela means again we are exerting tremendous pressure on Venezuela. And that has worked pretty obviously. Here is some of the footage of that Trend Aragua strike. You can see this is the building where the leader was. It doesn't exist anymore. It is a. It is a gigantic pile of rubble, lots of dust happening. The CIA apparently provided the intelligence for the strike. According to a senior U.S. administration official, the Venezuelan government confirmed a joint operation in Bolivar State, a remote mining region in southern Venezuela, and said the operation occurred in the midst of clashes with members of criminal groups. It involved specialized technological support and intelligence sharing between the two countries. And we have been essentially strangling the Venezuelan government and forcing them to do our will, which is the way that you ought to do things. It is a good thing. The Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, he confirmed the strike and collaboration with the Venezuelans. He said. Earlier this week, the Department of War, in full collaboration with Venezuelan security forces conducted a kinetic strike on a Trend Aragua compound in Venezuela. TDA founder and leader Hector Rothson 4th Guerrero Flores, aka Nino Guerrero, was confirmed killed during that operation. The operation underscores the shared U.S. and Venezuelan commitment to take the fights in narco terrorists and deny them any safe haven in in our hemisphere. Now I will say that that is a great thing. Also, we should steadily be moving over the course of the next two years toward a loosening of the Venezuelan tyranny. Because if democrats take over a couple of years from now, they will absolutely cut a significantly worse deal with the Venezuelans. That is the next step in Venezuela. It's great to see that the Venezuelans are under our thumb now. We need to transition toward a bezel regime in Venezuela that is going to actually be a long term ally of the United States. Not just an ally, but when we squeeze them until they squeak. Meanwhile, the quest to go after Rich people continue to pace over the weekend. People very, very angry obviously at Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO, which went extraordinarily well. Here was Elon Musk over the weekend talking about the SpaceX IPO.
Elon Musk
It is certainly hard to believe that little company that started in a warehouse in El Segundo is now, is now is not going public for the, with the largest IPO that ever. And let me tell you, if people had told me this was the going to happen, I was like, man, you must be smoking some really good crack because I think this company's going to fail. I mean, I gave SpaceX less than a 10% chance of succeeding at all, to be clear. In fact, I told people this, I said, look, we're probably going to fail, but we should give it a try because if we don't, if there's not a new company that enters space, we will never be a truly space faring civilization.
Ben Shapiro
Okay? So again, it's an amazing thing. I mean what he's done with SpaceX is incredible. It's an amazing, amazing company. Naturally, Democrats are super duper ticked about it. Elizabeth Warren, again, a person who has not generated anything in her life other than apparently she has some ownership in single family homes in Oklahoma or something and she's made herself a good living that way. But aside from that, she says that Elon's wealth is a rigged economy. It's a rigged economy again. Elon Musk has provided a good or service at the lowest possible price to NASA and to a wide variety of companies, is generating outsized productivity gains and wealth for a huge number of people. And Elizabeth Warren is big mad for some reason about it.
Elizabeth Warren
Elon Musk is officially the world's first trillionaire. Think about that. We're living in a time when more and more people are just hanging on by their feet fingernails to survive in this economy.
Ben Shapiro
What does that have to do with Elon Musk?
Elizabeth Warren
And Elon Musk has more money and more wealth than anyone in human history.
Ben Shapiro
There's always been someone who always had the most wealth.
Elizabeth Warren
This is not just some fluke, it is a feature of a rigged economy. Donald Trump's big beautiful bill cut health care for millions of Americans to give guys like Elon bigger tax breaks.
Ben Shapiro
What the hell is she talking about? So seriously, what is she talking about? That the big beautiful bill was designed for Elon. Elon opposed the big beautiful bill. Do you remember this? He got in a gigantic fight with the President over the big beautiful bill. So again, she's Just totally full of it. It's nonsense. Meanwhile, Mehdi Hasan, he says, mark Cuban, you're right that 60% of US adults own stock directly or indirectly. But what you omit to mention is that the richest 1% of Americans own nearly 50% of the stock market, while the bottom half of Americans own just 1%. And therefore, yes, it turns out that rich people are rich and people who are not nearly as rich are not nearly as rich. What in the world does that have to do with whether it is good for stock prices to go up for stock owners? And Brad Gerstner, who is one of, he's an investor and he is one of the founders of the Trump account, had an exchange with Ro Khanna. Very similar. Gerstner said, imagine if Bernie had taxed Elon Musk 100% on his PayPal capital gains. We'd have no Tesla or SpaceX. None of those jobs are GDP. Who do you think allocated the capital? Better for society. He'll already pay $100 billion in taxes. And Rona said, Brad, a 5% tax on Elon's trillion dollar net worth would literally pay for free college and trade school for every American. And with the market's growth, he would still be worth over a trillion dollars. You don't think that's worth it? I'm, I'm just like this, this idea that if you just confiscate more wealth from Elon Musk that magically fix everything, that is incredibly stupid. It is just incredibly stupid. We are already spending more money than any government has ever spent in the history of humanity. It has not made things cheaper, it has made things more expensive. That is the way that it works. Again it. Elon Musk is made. He's made. He minted 4,000 millionaires with the IPO, but apparently he's bad. Meanwhile, Hasan Piker, a true useless human being. Truly useless. Worse than useless, counterproductive to America. He's a natural born American citizen, which is unfortunate because if he weren't, we'd have a great case for deportation. In any case, Hasan Piker says Elon Musk is a failure. Yeah, he's the failure. My dude, sitting there drinking from a glass of wine the size of a. A gallon jug.
Hasan Piker
Elon Musk is a failure. And yet in spite of his failures, because he lucked into a, you know, initial because he, he happened to be at the right place at the right time, he has failed upwards with his endless wealth.
Ben Shapiro
He has failed upward with his endless wealth. Failed upward. Weird, because I feel like he actually Succeeded upward. The uselessness of these folks. Truly useless by the way. Apparently back in 2016, Hasan Piker was calling Elon a good looking designated genius. Which, you know, times have changed. Now he's too rich. Wow. Also, Hasan used to be a fatty.
Hasan Piker
You're a designated genius, you're a good looking dude and you happen to be a billionaire. Aside from being able to get people from San Francisco to LA in under 30 minutes at today's press conference, you managed to give single member of Al Qaeda the massivest hard on ever. Anyway, Elon, I admire your conquest in becoming the real life Tony Stark without the creepy facial hair. And for that, you are our bro of the week.
Ben Shapiro
Mm. All right, Tubbo. Ah boy. Meanwhile, Paul Krugman, who has been wrong on every economic issue it is possible for him to be wrong about. He says that Musk's wealth is in and of itself obscene and bad for democracy. What does his wealth have to do with democracy? We all have the same vote. What is he talking about? I think Paul Krugman having a column at the New York Times for 30 years was obscene and bad for democracy. Should a human have a trillion dollars while people starve? This is the stupidest question. Should they is immoral.
Paul Krugman
You don't, don't have to be a believer in perfect equality to think that there's something kind of obscene about this much wealth along with this much suffering. But I think there's a more immediate concern, which is what does it do to our democracy? I think Woodrow Wilson said, if there are men big enough to own the government, they will own the government. And my God, Elon Musk is now big enough to own the government.
Ben Shapiro
Well, that's weird, cuz he tried to actually run Doge and totally failed at that. And also as far as Woodrow Wilson. Woodrow Wilson was presiding over the greatest expansion of government in the nation's history to that time and ended up actively violating the Constitution in a variety of ways. So he's your hero on thwarting democracy. Okay, Shout out here, by the way, to Jalen Brunson and the New York Knicks. So again, I was not rooting for the Knicks to win. Mainly because my son was not rooting for the Knicks to win. He's a big Wemby fan. The Spurs. Epic, epic, epic collapse. I have to say, like Mitch Johnson did a horrible job with this team. Very young team. They led for 74% of the series, the spurs, and somehow lost four out of five games. They blew leads in double digits in one case in almost triple digits in, in one of those games. Every single game that they lost, they should have won. But Jalen Brunson was utterly phenomenal. 45 points in the last game. The rest of his team scored 49. But we're not going to do another NBA breakdown cause the season's over. But credit to Jalen Brunson because he said the quiet part out loud, which is, you know what's great? Taxes in Texas. I have nothing against Texas. I, I love Texas. I miss, I miss the Texas taxes. Yes, yes. He seems like a. A person with his head screwed on straight. Alrighty folks, the show is continuing for our members right now. We will get to. Ellen Page has been found. I'm wrong. It's. It's Elliot. Well, it's same person but we found her. But now she's talking about what it's like to be a man and we're supposed to take lectures on it. Plus, Knicks fans go crazy in New York, which I guess was sort of predictable. Remember, in order to watch, you have to be a member. If you're not a member, become one. Use code Shapiro checkout for two months free on all annual plans. Click that link in the description and join us.
Date: June 15, 2026
Host: Ben Shapiro
In this episode, Ben Shapiro analyzes the breaking news of a declared end to military operations between the United States and Iran, as announced by President Trump. The show dissects the implications of this so-called "deal," scrutinizes the media spin versus on-the-ground realities, compares U.S. and Iranian statements, and highlights the lack of publicly available details. Shapiro also examines the regional politics, skepticism about U.S.-Iran negotiations, plus sidebars on a White House UFC event, Venezuela's anti-gang strikes, the SpaceX IPO, and ongoing class envy in U.S. politics.
Transparency and Skepticism over Trump’s "Iran Deal":
Shapiro challenges the presented narratives from both U.S. and Iranian officials surrounding the abrupt announcement of peace, insisting on the need for actual text and verification. He contextualizes what would constitute a good or bad deal for both sides, spotlights potential manipulations, and urges caution against celebratory claims with no substance.
"If the other side is willing to undergo the pain of having all of his limbs lopped off, and you're only willing to undergo the pain of a hangnail, the other side must only inflict minor pain. In order to win, you must inflict massive pain." — Ben Shapiro
Continued or covert nuclear development
Ongoing ballistic missile development and funding for terror proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis)
Maintenance of control over the Strait of Hormuz
Significant monetary inflows to shore up the regime
Quote (09:20):
"Just to reiterate... five conditions for a good deal for the United States: No nukes, no ballistic missile development, no funding of terrorism abroad, opening the Strait permanently without tolling, and then theoretically opening up the economy." — Ben Shapiro
No actual deal text is public as of the episode, creating massive confusion and preventing real analysis.
President Trump calls it an "amazing deal," Iranians say it's terrible for them—both are spinning for their audiences.
Shapiro is skeptical of any agreement where all the mediators ("Pakistan, Qatar and Iran are happy") are historically anti-U.S. in orientation (23:19).
Quote (20:10):
"I'm happy to analyze a deal once I know what's in it. I cannot analyze a deal for or against until I know what the hell is in the deal." — Ben Shapiro
Trump's Account:
Iran's Account:
Quote (30:55):
"If Iran's characterization of this deal is correct, it is in fact a horrific deal. If Trump's characterization is correct, it's a good deal. The reality, there's probably nothing in the deal." — Ben Shapiro
Iran uses Hezbollah to provoke Israel during the "peace" window, hoping to drive a wedge between U.S. and Israel (35:00).
Trump criticizes Israeli defensive measures against Hezbollah, suggesting they risk the peace process—Shapiro sees this as appeasement and a sign of weakness.
Quote (36:41):
"If you keep sending the signal to a terror backing regime... that you want to deal with them so badly that you're going to tell our allies in the region to stand down, you are giving them an enormous amount of forward momentum and that is a huge mistake." — Ben Shapiro
"I think both of us [Trump and myself] are generally skeptical of foreign military entanglements ... but fundamentally that doesn't mean you can never use military force. And I think the goal here of preventing the Iranians from having a nuclear weapon, we're going to be successful at that goal."
"His mouth to God's ears. But let's see the deal." (32:32)
"Turns out it's an amazing way to rebut those questions, actually...[by] releasing the text of the deal." — Ben Shapiro (31:27)
"If you want to sign some sort of temporary cease fire, do it via DocuSign and be done. The idea of a gigantic photo op with the leader of the Iranian Parliament, who is a stand in for the IRGC, is in fact a visual slap in the face..." — Ben Shapiro (21:50)
"The Iranians...spent the weekend mocking Trump." (31:27)
"You cannot issue empty threats and your bluff gets called over and over and over again." — Ben Shapiro (31:44)
"I'm kind of into it. Like, really, it's kind of great... releasing bald eagles to fly over giant crowds at weigh-ins at the White House." — Ben Shapiro (42:05)
Critiques Democrats (notably Elizabeth Warren and Paul Krugman) for focusing on wealth disparity, "rigged" economy, and hating Elon Musk’s success post-SpaceX IPO (53:48-58:23).
"What does his wealth have to do with democracy? We all have the same vote. What is he talking about?" — Ben Shapiro (58:43)
Points out generational and partisan divides in national pride (48:00), using recent polling to show a large gap between Republicans/older Americans and Democrats/younger Americans.
Shapiro is typically fast-paced, analytical, sometimes caustic, and unrelenting in his critiques—whether of political leaders, media narratives, or cultural displays he finds unserious or hypocritical.
| Issue | U.S. (Trump's Version) | Iran's Version | Shapiro’s Skepticism | |----------------------|----------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------| | Nuclear weapons | Iran not to obtain nukes (per Trump) | Only a temporary negotiation, "their word" | No details, nothing verifiable | | Ballistics | To be curbed (eventually, per Trump) | Not negotiated at all | Omitted means continued threat | | Sanctions | Maybe lifted for good behavior, not cash | Immediate unfreezing of tens of $B | Any flow of money is a concession | | Strait of Hormuz | To open for trade (per Trump) | Iran sets terms, possible future tolls | Only a return to prewar status quo | | Support to terror | To be limited/ended (per Trump) | Not included in any negotiation | Omitted means status quo continues | | Oversight | "Strong inspections" (not specified) | Monitoring only implementation of the deal | No details, lack of enforcement | | Final oversight | US President authority (per Trump) | UN Security Council must endorse | Adds Russian, Chinese veto power |
Shapiro’s bottom line is clear: Without the actual deal text, there is no way to judge whether the U.S. has scored a strategic win, made a costly blunder, or merely kicked the can down the road. He warns against media celebration, criticizes any attempt to equate U.S. and Iranian interests, and repeatedly highlights the peril of negotiating with regimes like Iran’s on good faith alone.
Final Quote (36:41):
"If you keep sending the signal to a terror backing regime... that you want to deal with them so badly that you're going to tell our allies in the region to stand down, you are giving them an enormous amount of forward momentum and that is a huge mistake." — Ben Shapiro