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Nick
This is Nick, this is Jack. It's Friday, The Real Friday, April 11, and today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T, boy.
Jack
The top three pop business news stories you need to know today.
Nick
Yetis. Remember when stocks rebounded and the S And P surged 10% on Wednesday?
Jack
Well, scratch all that because stocks reversed course yesterday. The s and P500 fell 4%.
Nick
I mean, Jack, we haven't seen back and forth swings like that since we like first got into finance after the Great Recession, Right?
Jack
It's whiplash, Nick.
Nick
Yeah, not since Han. Across America, Jack, three stories for today's show. What do we got on the pie?
Jack
For our first story yesterday we told you all about the 90 day trade war. Pause. It was a huge policy reversal.
Nick
So today we'll reveal all the drama that went down behind the scenes over at the White House.
Jack
For our second story, it's Versace. Or is it pronounced Versace? Either way, Versace just sold their dramatic Italian fashion brand to their cousin Prada.
Nick
But Versace, not Versace, sold at half the price because time killed. Deals. Deals.
Jack
And our third and final story this very morning, Nick got a colonoscopy.
Nick
True story.
Jack
It's a 36 hour butt procedure and he passed it with flying colors.
Nick
So Jack and I did what we do best. We found an economic lesson in that colonoscopy.
Jack
Yes, we did.
Nick
We kept digging and we found it, baby. The Eddies.
Jack
Before we hit that wonderful mix of stories.
Nick
Whoa. What a mix of stories to go into the weekend with.
Jack
We just saw a headline on Business Insider and it was so wild we promoted the story to the top of the pod.
Nick
This is how competitive the bat for tech talent is over in Silicon Valley these days.
Jack
Here was the headline. Google is allegedly paying AI staffers to.
Nick
Do nothing for a year rather than join their rivals.
Jack
Let me repeat that. Google will pay talented AI engineers their $300,000 salary just to not work for the competition.
Nick
Basically, they will pay you handsomely to do nothing for Google as long as.
Jack
You do nothing for OpenAI.
Nick
Basically, this is a non compete clause that lasts a whole year in a big way.
Jack
But here's the problem. One year in AI, that's like a lifetime.
Nick
Totally. That is how fast the pace of AI is accelerating.
Jack
And that's how scared Google is that some other company is going to get the advantage.
Nick
Jack, could you sprinkle on some context? What's a good analogy here?
Jack
This would be like if Aaron Judge went into Hal Steinbrenner's office and said, I'm thinking about playing for the Mets.
Nick
Okay, so, Jack, what would the Yankees do?
Jack
They'd say, yeah, don't play for the Mets. We'll actually give you your full salary just to not play for the Mets.
Nick
We'll pay you $40 million to do nothing for the Yankees. Just don't pay for the Mets.
Jack
So, Nick, can we add it all up?
Nick
Yes, we can, Jack. Google is paying these employees something to do nothing or anything with a competitor's thing.
Jack
And if you violate that, Google will sue you for everything.
Nick
And we've never seen anything like this thing. Couldn't have put it better, Jack.
Jack
Happy Friday, Yetis. Let's get to the three stars.
Nick
Let's hit' em, baby.
Unknown
Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one, but the best is the norm, Jack. Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%. That's a fat tip. T boy city on your at, Liz. If you know, you know. Cause we read to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show.
Nick
First, a quick word from our sponsor.
Jack
This podcast is sponsored by Northwestern Mutual yeti.
Nick
Lots of financial companies want to talk to you, but Northwestern Mutual wants to listen to you.
Jack
Some companies say they have all the answers, but Northwestern Mutual has better questions.
Nick
Yeah, the financial pros, they are going to ask you questions about your financial situation that honestly, you never asked yourself a big one.
Jack
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Nick
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Jack
Nm.Com the Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Airbnb. Nick, can you share that wonderful quote about hospitality we heard recently?
Nick
Jack, I think I read this in the Danny Meyer book, but he said something like, hospitality is anticipating someone's needs beyond expectations.
Jack
I love that quote. When I have a guest booked to stay at my place, I try to meet that hospitality standard. And I do so by letting them know ahead of time events happening in the area.
Nick
Pro tip. Your favorite jam band is playing at your favorite burger place Wednesday night. Probably let your guests know about that one.
Jack
I also completed a full travel guide within my Airbnb listing, sharing my personal favorite recommendations and secret spots.
Nick
What kind of stuff's in that travel guide, Jack?
Jack
That swimming hole is so remote you can definitely swim in the nude and you won't get any issues.
Nick
Yeah, no George Costanza shrinkage that we know of. Yetis, your actual house, your apartment, your condo is just one part of the Airbnb hosting experience.
Jack
I've really enjoyed the soft parts of hospitality, anticipating my guests needs beyond their expectations.
Nick
If this sounds your style and you enjoy a naked jump into a stream, you can become an Airbnb host, too, as long as you got a place.
Jack
I'm proud of my 4.92 rating, and my wife is proud of the revenue we're generating with that rating.
Nick
Yeah, it is. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much@airbnb.com.
Jack
For our first.
Nick
Story today, we'll share with you the behind the scenes details of who got Trump to stand down on the trade war. He listened to the Wall Streeters, not.
Jack
The populists, because the stock market represents America's wealth, but the bond market represents America's power.
Nick
Yetis. We'll let that sink in for a minute. But first, President Trump is the final decider on what executive orders get his huge Sharpie PE signature.
Jack
But he's influenced by his cabinet, by media personalities, and by CEOs.
Nick
So Jack and I are now looking at the different factions within Trump's orbit that got him to stand down this week.
Jack
We're looking at the people who got him to blink on the trade war.
Nick
So, Jack, let's kick it off. Can you begin by sprinkling on some context, please?
Jack
Trump's gut has been telling him for 10 years that America is getting screwed when it comes to trade.
Nick
And he loves tariffs because they give him the ultimate unilateral power to change things in the economy without congressional approval.
Jack
Those instincts were backed up intellectually by two populist advisors. Yes, they were Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon.
Nick
Navarro and Bannon. Two guys who were both so loyal to Trump, they actually served prison time rather than cooperate with congressional investigations.
Jack
And both of those men believe that trade is inherently a zero sum game.
Nick
A zero sum game, Jack, can you explain that one for a second?
Jack
They believe, for example, if a Chinese person is making an iPhone, then that Chinese person took an American's job.
Nick
That is zero sum. As one gets something, the other loses something.
Jack
Economists, on the other hand, think trade is a positive sum game. We all win.
Nick
So Trump's Liberation Day tariffs that hit earlier this week, they had these two guys, fingerprints all over them.
Jack
But on the other side of the.
Nick
Oval Office was the techies, specifically Elon Musk. Vocally opposed to everything those two guys were saying about the trade war.
Jack
Now there's a couple reasons why Elon is pro trade. First, China holds huge sway on his business as China could shut down Tesla's biggest, most productive factory in a snap.
Nick
Also Jack, I thought this was an interesting point we were discussing. Elon's a workaholic and he kind of admires that Chinese factory workers are workaholics too.
Jack
I don't think he kind of admires it. He loves the work ethic of his Chinese factory workers.
Nick
So add it all up and Elon opposed all those tariffs that Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro were pushing.
Jack
He even publicly insulted Peter Navarro in a back and forth Twitter spat.
Nick
All week in T boy style, the insults were flying like the Real Housewives of the White House. We thought someone was gonna flip the Resolute desk.
Jack
But it wasn't Elon's opposition who got Trump to stand down and pause most of his tariffs.
Nick
And no, no, no, no, no. This is what we found fascinating. It was actually two fellow New York born financial billionaires, Bill Ackman and Jamie Dimon.
Jack
It was the two six foot men in finance who got Trump to stand down.
Nick
Who also have blue eyes and also have trust funds.
Jack
Of all of those who spoke out against the trade war, Ackman and Dimon caused Trump to blink.
Nick
Because Ackman and Dimon, these two New York financiers, they gave Trump some critical Wall street perspective. And Jack, what did they tell him specifically?
Jack
They told him what was happening in the bond market.
Nick
The bond market. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies following the trade war drama?
Jack
The stock market represents America's wealth but the bond market represents America's power.
Nick
Yetis For 80 years the United States dollar has been the world's reserve currency. Everyone want it's in high demand.
Jack
And our US government debt has been the world's financial safe haven. Everyone wants to invest in it across the world.
Nick
So those two things, Jack and I call that our financial soft power. But here's the key. Last week investors sold more U.S. bonds than any week in 24 years.
Jack
In other words, last week was the worst week for our financial soft power in 24 years.
Nick
Yeah, listen to these examples. First, financial firms sold bonds to cover their stock losses happening all week.
Jack
Even worse though, international investors across the world sold bonds to divest from the United States.
Nick
Deutsche bank saw all of that and said this wild. The market has lost faith in US assets.
Jack
Bill Ackman and Jamie Dimon pointed to the falling bond market. And they told Trump that's what you.
Nick
Should fear, because the stock market represents America's wealth, but the bond market represents America's power. For our second story yesterday, we saw the biggest deal in Italian fashion since Zoolander. Prada is buying Versace for $1.4 billion.
Jack
But inside this deal is the most important rule for negotiation.
Nick
Now, yetis, in order for us to tell the tale of this deal, we're gonna go back in history 165 years. When Giuseppe Garibaldi united Sicily, Naples, Milan, Rome, Venice, and all those Italian kingdoms into one country.
Jack
He's basically the founding of Italia.
Nick
Yes, he is. Italy was unified and a Nation was born.
Jack
165 years later, Italy's greatest assets are unified once again.
Nick
Prada is acquiring Versace for $1.4 billion. They thought they were ridiculously, ridiculously good looking.
Jack
Now, stock in America's Michael Kors fell 10% on the news because they're selling Versace and they're selling Versace at half the price. They bought it seven years ago.
Nick
But this news shocked even Mugatu. And why is that, Jack?
Jack
Prada and Versace are aesthetically opposite of each other.
Nick
Versace, you know, their style is more bold, loud, energetic. Jack.
Jack
Ornate, baroque designs. The kind of thing that gets you in the New York Times after you flash it on the red carpet.
Nick
Prada, on the other hand, they're more of like a simple, quiet style, stealth.
Jack
Wealth, like a logo free suit that Kendall Roy might wear in succession.
Nick
If you know, you know. But there was some drama here, wasn't there, Jack?
Jack
And the drama came directly from Versace's family.
Nick
Yeah, literally. Donatella Versace. She quit her very own namesake company just last month.
Jack
She said she was sick of working for American Michael Kors.
Nick
But also there was a strategic mistake here made by the whole Versace company.
Jack
They stopped caring about one overlooked customer. Versace basically shut down their entry level products.
Nick
They ignored their entry level customers.
Jack
Luxury companies let aspirational customers reach the rung of the luxury ladder with some lower priced goods.
Nick
Zack, let's walk into a Versace store, metaphorically here. What would this look like? An entry level customer?
Jack
One of those red carpet sculpture dresses I was telling you about.
Nick
They sounded lovely.
Jack
They start at like 2,000 bucks. But Versace keeps one dress available at a $500 price point, maybe has a.
Nick
Few fewer features on it. It's a dress, it's not a gown situation.
Jack
Here's the idea. If you can get a piece of Versace, at the age of 25, with that $500 dress, you'll start splurging on Versace by the time you have more money when you're 35.
Nick
But here's the problem. Three years ago, Versace got rid of its entry level lines, and they lost.
Jack
More than they realized with that decision.
Nick
Because the result, without a new generation of young customers buying entry level Versace, Versace sales have been falling.
Jack
That's why Prada was able to scoop up Versace for half of its price tag from just seven years ago, like.
Nick
It was on the sale rack at Madewell. So, Jack, what is this? A takeaway for ants? What is the takeaway for our buddies over at Versace?
Jack
Time kills deals.
Nick
Time kills deals. Yet he's the greatest risk to a deal's price or a deal not getting done. It's one word. Time talks for.
Jack
This deal probably started a year ago. And we've watched the prospects for the deal getting done go worse and worse and worse as time went on.
Nick
First, we had the luxury slowdown last year, and then we got the trade war this year. And the value of Versace, it's been falling ever since.
Jack
Five years ago, Versace was worth $2.2 billion, but now it's worth just 1.4.
Nick
Just this week, Prada reportedly negotiated a $200 million discount on the deal because of the trade war flare up.
Jack
We bet Versace would have sold for a much higher price if they could have got the deal closed one year ago.
Nick
Yeah, and Jack and I know that because we've actually had a huge deal almost canceled for the same kind of reason.
Jack
One week after we signed the acquisition papers to sell our first company to Robinhood. Robinhood had a big PR crisis.
Nick
Yeah, and like, if our deal had closed one month later, it wouldn't have closed. Like, this would have prevented the deal from happening because too much time would have passed.
Jack
Robinhood would not have closed the deal with us in the middle of that PR crisis.
Nick
It's the first thing we saw of with this Versace story. Sebesti's Versace. Yeah, they weren't killed by the delay, but they were definitely injured by it.
Jack
Because the biggest risk to a deal getting done, not just a corporate acquisition deal, but any deal you find yourself in. The biggest risk is time.
Nick
Time kills deals. Now a quick word from our sponsor.
Jack
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Nick
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Jack
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Nick
That's how I know you've been drinking this stuff. You caught that fact check right there, Jack. I'm a vanilla guy though. And honestly, the vanilla flav tastes like it was flown in from Tahiti on those beans.
Jack
Yetis. You don't want your body to fall into a collagen recession, especially after you hit 30.
Nick
No, you don't. Well, by taking collagen peptides daily, you can help support your hair, skin, nail, bone and joint health.
Jack
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Nick
That's vitalproteins.com promo code T Boy for 20% off.
Jack
These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure or prevent any disease.
Unknown
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Nick
For our third and final story to send you into the weekend. Earlier this morning I actually had my first ever colonoscopy and we realized this.
Jack
Colon cancer detecting procedure is actually connected to our favorite economic principle.
Nick
That's right. We're gonna connect the colonoscopy to our favorite rule of economics. But Besties earlier this morning was actually one of the most unique days of my life. And why is that, Jack?
Jack
You got what you keep calling your first colonoscop.
Nick
What was my best colonoscopy, Jack? It was my best one.
Jack
Yeah, it is. This is the procedure where a doctor goes up in there to check the signs to make sure you don't have colon cancer.
Nick
It's awkward, it's uncomfortable. It is comically like a concept in A South park script. You kind of just gotta roll with it and laugh with it. Cause it's really wild.
Jack
Nick, it happened like eight hours ago. So why don't you walk us through how it went down.
Nick
So, Jack, I could not consume any solid food for an entire day. Just clear liquid yesterday. And then I had to drink a special prescribed concoction at 5pm to flush me out for the day.
Jack
They want your colon to be clean, right?
Nick
Yes. Yeah, yeah. So I actually also had to wake up at two in the morning to drink more of that secret liquid, which flushed me out again for the next few hours.
Jack
So you didn't get great sleep? Oh, no, no.
Nick
And then at 5am I walked to the hospital. It was a couple blocks away. 6:30am I was out cold. Really on the table. Really? Yep. By 8am I was finished. Molly picked me up. By 9am I was on the phone with you preparing for this podcast.
Jack
I can't believe the hospital was open so early.
Nick
I know, it was really wild. Well, like despite the 36 hour fast, the whole night in the bathroom, camera in my butt, I honestly, I could not be happier right now.
Jack
Jack, to be clear, it wasn't a painful procedure, right?
Nick
No, no. You know, I was put under for the 30 minute procedure. And the scope that they put in you is soft, slippery, you don't even know.
Jack
Basically glides right in.
Nick
Yeah. Actually the doctor asked me right before she put me out what food I was gonna celebrate with after. And I was like, the burger at Spruce. And then boom, I woke up and the procedure was over. That was it.
Jack
It's like you woke up from a dream.
Nick
Yeah, that was it.
Jack
And the doctor said they didn't see any growths or pods to be worried about, right?
Nick
Yeah. Clean bill of colorectal health. But yet we will tie this back to economics. We promised. Because the first thought I had on the table was a moment of clarity. I was like, oh my God. The stock market basically had a colonoscopy this week too. I had tension, fear, and a lot of buildup prior to the procedure.
Jack
So did investors on Monday. Wall street was nervous.
Nick
And then I got flush. So did stocks.
Jack
They fell 20% from their all time highs.
Nick
I liquidated my intestines, literally.
Jack
Investors liquidated their portfolios.
Nick
And then markets bounced back a bit. Felt better. And so did I. After the 20 minute procedure, I'm recording the podcast.
Jack
Okay, great work again.
Nick
We do have to tie this even further to economics. And Jack and I have an idea. Basically Eddie's. I was actually really young to get a colonoscopy.
Jack
Nick's in his 30s, but doctors pretty much make you wait until you're in your 40s to get one. Yeah, especially if you want it to be insured by health insurance.
Nick
But I had a family history of polyps in their colon, so I begged my insurance company. I actually called them multiple times and demanded it.
Jack
And they finally approved it.
Nick
Yeah, they did.
Jack
Which leads to these numbers. You're supposed to get a screening in your 40s, but only one out of seven Americans actually get a colonoscopy in their 40s.
Nick
We repeat, only one out of seven people in their 40s right now have done a colonoscopy. Maybe one of them is you, and you should probably get one, because tens.
Jack
Of thousands of new cancer cases could have been caught so early if more people had gotten colonoscopies.
Nick
And Jack and I were talking, and we think there's actually an economic principle we know and we love that can fix that problem.
Jack
And to be clear, this isn't an ad for the colonoscopy industry.
Nick
No.
Jack
I'm just grateful that Nick told this story on the pod.
Nick
Yeah. I've actually got a picture. You want to see it?
Jack
No.
Nick
Okay. Okay, I drew a picture. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies curious about economics?
Jack
You don't have to make people do something. You just have to nudge them.
Nick
It's the nudge rule. Yeti's Chicago economics professors Richard Toller and Cass Sunstein wrote an econ theory on how to get people to make better decisions without restricting their freedom of choice.
Jack
Their economic secret was the nudge.
Nick
The nudge?
Jack
The nudge is when you give people the same options but tweak the context so they reach a different decision.
Nick
We actually mentioned the nudge last year in a story on 401ks, the retirement savings account.
Jack
If you make opting into a retirement program the default for employees, more employees end up doing it.
Nick
That's an economic nudge. Instead of giving people two choices and being indifferent, use the default choice to nudge people to the better option.
Jack
And the same could be applied to a colonoscopy.
Nick
Totally.
Jack
Which the vast majority of Americans don't get.
Nick
And now besties. We are not saying everyone should default to having a colonoscopy, but we're saying there should be a discussion with your doctor. That definitely happens at 40. That should be the default.
Jack
Instead of waiting for symptoms for you to opt in and get a colonoscopy, a call from your doctor on your 40th birthday should be the default.
Nick
And that is why the colonoscopy reminds us of our favorite economic principle, the nudge. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us?
Jack
For the real Friday, it wasn't the populists or the techies who got Trump to pause his trade war. It was the Wall street guys.
Nick
Because the stock market represents America's wealth, but the bond market represents America's power.
Jack
For our second story, Prada is acquiring Versace for $1.4 billion. Probably a disappointing price for the Versace.
Nick
Family because time kills Dales.
Jack
And our third and final story, Nick's colonoscopy went well. Nothing to be concerned about. We're happy and proud of him.
Nick
It reminds us of an economic trick, the nudge. Give people a choice, but nudge them to the best choice.
Jack
But yetis, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.
Nick
First, Trade War Almanac, day nine. Jack and I been keeping track for ya. Here's an update from the tariff trenches.
Jack
On Thursday, Trump escalated his tariffs on China to 145%.
Nick
Every other country in the world, they're getting a 10% tariff during this 90 day pause.
Jack
But the higher 25% tariffs remain in place for cars and steel.
Nick
And the EU paused their retaliatory tariffs on the United States for 90 days as well.
Jack
Second, yesterday we got the inflation report for the month of March.
Nick
The inflation report, the celebrity of econ reports. Prices actually fell across the economy in March compared to February.
Jack
And core inflation was the lowest in four years. Even egg prices have come way down now.
Nick
Economists don't expect tariffs to show up in prices until June because companies bought in bulk to beat the tariffs.
Jack
And finally, Universal Studios is building its first European theme park in England.
Nick
Two years ago, rumors were swirling around the Kingdom of Universal buying 600 acres 60 minutes north of London.
Jack
It was pretty obvious why a theme park company wanted 600 acres.
Nick
Yeah.
Jack
But now it's official.
Nick
Yeah. England's newest theme park. I think its biggest theme park will open in 2031 and expects 9 million visitors a year.
Jack
The Hogwarts ride are gonna have natural British accents.
Nick
Now time for the best fact yet. This one whipped up by my gastroenterologist this morning. Dr. Chetty.
Jack
I love the colon takeover of today's episode.
Nick
Yeah, right before they knocked me out, I asked them for the best fact yet. And here's what they told me. They told me about the Katie Couric effect.
Jack
Katie Couric, the famous TV journalist her husband sadly died of colon cancer in 1999.
Nick
Well, what did Katie Couric Dr. She did a colonoscopy live streamed on TV.
Jack
Of her colon on the today show. You could watch the camera colonoscopy ing Katie Couric.
Nick
And what was the Katie Couric effect of all that, Jack?
Jack
That year there was a 20% increase in elective colonoscopies nationwide.
Nick
The Katie Couric effect. Yetis. You look fantastic over there, Jack. I'm sure you feel fantastic over there. I gotta get at 4 liters of water right now. I feel, you know, I'll show you some pictures. Just hold on a sec. I'll show you some pictures. Yetis, drop down, give us 5 stars rate and review the show and check out the best idea yet. Our weekly show, this one is all about peeps.
Jack
Nick, congrats. Let's celebrate the wins and yetis. We'll see you Monday.
Nick
All right, throwing the pics up on YouTube. Here we go, Jack. And before we go, a happy birthday to legendary yeti Ben Einstein. Born in Los Angeles but celebrating a in San Francisco, pumped for dinner.
Jack
And happy birthday to William Guillermo Warren in San Francisco. This little boy is turning two.
Nick
And Ruchika Shah in New York City's been listening for three years and celebrating the best birthday yet. And Ruchita, we know we owe you two more birthday shout outs and we got your back.
Jack
Happy birthday to Amy Betros in Buffalo, New York, who's the best grandma yet.
Nick
And Gwen Ryan in Shippensburg, Pennsylvania, studding poli sci at Westchester University. And there she celebrated the best birthday yet.
Jack
Happy birthday to Kate Hartnett in Brooklyn, New York who's celebrating with a pint.
Nick
Of Haagen Dazs and a congratu gagement anniversary eve to Jack and Alex, my co host.
Jack
No, no, not Eve. Seven years ago I dropped out on one knee in Ann Arbor's arboretum and I proposed to Alex. I was very nervous. The ring was basically the most expensive thing I'd ever purchased and so far, happily ever after.
Nick
And Jack is recreating it all tonight in the same outfit. Unreal. Amazing. Alex, so pumped for you. Congratulations by the way.
Jack
Strike my so far. Let's just go with happily ever after.
Nick
And congratulations to yeti's Drew and Vanessa Glappa down in Austin getting married. And Evan is officiating the best wedding yet.
Jack
Happy birthday to Elizabeth Carlson in Plymouth, Minnesota, who's celebrating with some sushi grade.
Nick
Sushi nigiri for Elizabeth. And Miranda Fairbanks is running a half marathon this weekend. You got this, Miranda. Fueled by goldfish.
Jack
And congratulations to Adam Katzenbach, who's getting married in Chicago.
Nick
Adam, we're pumped for both you guys.
Jack
Celebrate the wins. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T, boy.
Nick
Celebrate the wins.
Jack
This is Jack. Nick and I both own ETFs of the S&P 500. If you like the best one yet, you can listen ad free right now by joining Wondery and the Wondery app or on Apple Podcasts.
Nick
Prime members can listen ad free on Amazon Music.
Jack
And before you go, tell us a little bit about yourself by filling out a short survey@wondery.com survey we want to.
Nick
Get to know you.
Unknown
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Podcast Summary: The Best One Yet Hosted by Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell Episode: 🍑 “Colonoscopy Stock Market” — BTS trade war drama. Versace’s Prada acquisition. A Colon econ lesson. Release Date: April 11, 2025
Market Volatility and Policy Reversals
The episode kicks off with a discussion on the recent volatility in the stock market. Nick references a significant rebound where the S&P 500 surged by 10% on a Wednesday, only to reverse course and drop by 4% the following day. He remarks, “We haven't seen back and forth swings like that since we first got into finance after the Great Recession” (00:17).
Influence of Wall Street’s Titans
Jack and Nick delve into the intricate dynamics behind President Trump's decision to pause the 90-day trade war. Contrary to initial assumptions that populist advisors like Peter Navarro and Steve Bannon played the pivotal role, the duo reveals that influential Wall Street figures Bill Ackman and Jamie Dimon were the key players. Nick summarizes, “They gave Trump some critical Wall Street perspective” (08:19).
Economic Implications: Wealth vs. Power
A crucial takeaway from this segment is the distinction between the stock market representing America’s wealth and the bond market embodying its power. Jack emphasizes, “The stock market represents America's wealth but the bond market represents America's power” (09:08). The alarming drop in U.S. bond sales, the worst in 24 years, signaled a loss of confidence among investors, prompting Ackman and Dimon to influence the trade war’s pause.
Notable Quote:
“Google is paying talented AI engineers their $300,000 salary just to not work for the competition... It was the Wall Street guys who got Trump to stand down.” — Jack (08:22)
The $1.4 Billion Deal
In the second story, Jack and Nick explore Prada’s acquisition of Versace for $1.4 billion, highlighting it as the most significant deal in Italian fashion since the iconic characters from "Zoolander." They note, “But Versace was sold at half the price because time killed deals” (10:27).
Strategic Missteps by Versace
The duo explains how Versace’s strategic decision to eliminate entry-level products led to a decline in sales. By removing accessible price points, Versace alienated younger, aspirational customers, resulting in reduced revenue and making the brand vulnerable to acquisition at a discounted rate. Nick states, “Time kills deals” (13:02), underscoring the prolonged period over which Versace’s value depreciated from $2.2 billion to $1.4 billion.
Economic Lesson: The Importance of Timing in Negotiations
Drawing parallels to their personal experiences, Jack and Nick emphasize that delays can significantly impact the success and value of deals. Nick shares, “It's the biggest risk to a deal getting done. The biggest risk is time” (13:17), reinforcing the idea that timely execution is crucial in business negotiations.
Notable Quote:
“Prada is acquiring Versace for $1.4 billion. Probably a disappointing price for the Versace. Family because time kills deals.” — Nick (10:46)
Personal Experience Turned Economic Insight
In a unique and personal narrative, Nick recounts his first colonoscopy, detailing the preparation and procedure. Despite the discomfort and awkwardness, the experience led him and Jack to explore an economic principle known as "nudging." Nick humorously connects his own "liquidation" during the procedure to the stock market’s volatility earlier in the week.
The Nudge Theory Applied to Healthcare
Jack and Nick introduce the concept of the "nudge," an economic strategy developed by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, which involves subtly guiding choices without restricting freedom. They propose that making colonoscopies a default recommendation, similar to automatic enrollment in retirement plans, could increase participation rates. Nick explains, “The nudge is when you give people the same options but tweak the context so they reach a different decision” (20:27).
Call to Action: Proactive Health Measures
Encouraging listeners to engage in proactive health discussions with their doctors, Jack and Nick advocate for normalizing colonoscopy screenings. They suggest that initiating these conversations at age 40 should become the standard practice, thereby leveraging the nudge theory to enhance public health outcomes.
Notable Quote:
“Instead of waiting for symptoms for you to opt in and get a colonoscopy, a call from your doctor on your 40th birthday should be the default.” — Nick (21:17)
Summarizing the Three Core Stories:
Trade War Insight: Wall Street leaders, not populist advisors, influenced Trump to pause the trade war, highlighting the bond market's role in representing national power.
Prada and Versace Deal: Time is a critical factor in business negotiations, as exemplified by Prada’s acquisition of Versace at a reduced price due to prolonged delays.
Economic Nudging in Healthcare: Applying the nudge theory can significantly improve public health initiatives, such as increasing colonoscopy rates through default recommendations.
Final Reflections:
Jack and Nick adeptly intertwine personal anecdotes with economic theories, offering listeners both entertainment and valuable insights. Their ability to extract economic lessons from diverse topics underscores the podcast's unique approach to business news.
Encouragement to Listeners:
The hosts close by urging listeners to rate and review the podcast, celebrate personal milestones, and engage with the discussed economic principles in their own lives.
Timestamps Referenced:
Note: Advertisements, sponsorship messages, and non-content segments have been excluded from this summary to focus solely on the core discussions and insights presented in the podcast.