🥃 “Bourbon Bullish” — Invest in Whiskey? Netflix conquers comedy. SpaceX & Anthropic. +Mother’s Day all-time-low

Summary

---

Podcast Summary: The Best One Yet

Episode: 🥃 “Bourbon Bullish” — Invest in Whiskey? Netflix conquers comedy. SpaceX & Anthropic. + Mother’s Day all-time-low
Hosts: Jack Crivici-Kramer & Nick Martell
Date: May 8, 2026

Brief Overview

In this punchy and pop-culture-rich episode, Nick and Jack break down three major business stories with their signature mix of insight and banter:

1. Netflix’s dominance in stand-up comedy and reality content, driven by its “Netflix Is a Joke” festival
2. Anthropic’s explosive AI growth and its unprecedented deal to rent SpaceX data centers, with wider implications for the Internet
3. The historic collapse in whiskey demand and the resulting price crash, presenting an intriguing investment (and collector’s) opportunity

The show also kicks off with a fascinating look at the surprising shifts in Mother’s Day brunch culture, and closes with rapid-fire business news and a memorable "best fact yet" about the spending power of military spouses.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Mother’s Day: Brunch Replaces Breakfast in Bed

⏰ [01:00]–[02:28]

• Trend Alert: Breakfast in bed is “dead” as only 4% of moms want it this year (OpenTable data).
  • “Only 4% of moms are willing to risk the maple syrup on the mattress.” — Nick [01:28]
• New Traditions: Brunch out is at an all-time high. Noon on Mother’s Day is the most in-demand restaurant reservation of the year.
• Spending Surge: On Mother's Day, wine orders go up 56%, lobster sales up 90%, and steak sales up 93%, turning brunch into a “boozy binge that makes St. Patty look sober.” — Jack [02:14]
• Notable Quote:
  • “The only shots Gen Z is taking are screenshots.” — Nick [16:26]

---

1. Netflix’s Comedy Conquest

⏰ [05:15]–[09:34]

• Event: “Netflix Is a Joke” Comedy Festival has overtaken Los Angeles:
  • 475 shows across 45 venues, headlined by a Kevin Hart roast with Nikki Glaser [06:15–06:25]
• Business Model Innovation:
  • Netflix “double dips” by selling live tickets and then streaming the specials. Actually, it’s a quadruple dip:
    • Live events
    • Streaming specials
    • Cheap-to-produce content
    • Reality TV-style contest (“Funny AF”)
  • “Filming one dude in one take on stage…costs less than a Star Wars scene.” — Nick [06:48]
• Content Economics:
  • Comedy and reality TV are the most profitable genres thanks to low costs.
  • Netflix’s new “Funny AF” is positioned as “American Idol for comedians,” hosted by Kevin Hart, with users voting for the next breakout star [07:53].
• Key Insight:
  • “The higher the production budget, the lower the stock price…If the credits are long, the profits are short.” — Jack & Nick [08:35, 09:34]
  • TL;DR: Cheap content = Wall Street reward; expensive (Disney/ESPN-style) content = squeezed profits [09:09–09:31]

---

2. SpaceX, Anthropic & The AI Compute Squeeze

⏰ [09:34]–[14:08]

• Deal: Anthropic (makers of the Claude chatbot) is renting the world’s biggest data center from SpaceX (specifically, the Memphis “Colossus” facility, packed with 220,000 Nvidia GPUs — $7 billion worth) [12:11–12:18].
• AI Goes Parabolic:
  • Claude usage is up 80x in a year, vastly outpacing even Anthropic’s own forecasts [10:32–10:52].
  • Most new compute demand is from “AI agents” performing background tasks, not chat [11:12].
• Behind the Deal:
  • SpaceX has excess capacity because Grok (Elon’s chatbot) isn’t getting traction—so it’s monetizing by renting to a rival [12:33].
  • “The enemy of Elon’s enemy is...Anthropic.” — Jack [09:50]
• Industry Big Picture:
  • Demand for AI is so high that even paid users are hitting usage paywalls and busy signals—affecting the whole Internet as AI and traditional traffic compete for data center space [13:13–13:46].
  • “It’s like a busy signal, but for the whole Internet.” — Nick [21:47]
• Key Insight:
  • Compute shortages are “invisible”; you can’t stockpile like toilet paper [14:03].
  • This new bottleneck could intermittently slow down both AI and normal websites or services [13:40–13:56].

---

3. Is Bourbon the New Nvidia? The Whiskey Investment Thesis

⏰ [16:05]–[21:15]

• Market Glut: U.S. whiskey sales have plunged 19%—the worst year since Prohibition [16:56].
• Supply Surge:
  • Whiskey supply is at an all-time high, hitting the market just as demand cratered [17:12–18:48].
  • “All those pandemic barrels are finally coming to the market now...which makes for some horrible timing.” — Jack & Nick [18:26–18:38]
• Auction Price Collapse: Premium bottles (e.g. Stagg, Willits, Pappy Van Winkle) are trading at 50–60% off recent peaks [19:02–19:33].
• Collector/Investor Opportunity:
  • Many are “buying the dip” as supply will drop in 3 years (because distilleries are shutting production now), possibly driving up prices if sobriety wanes [20:04–20:19].
  • “Buy low, sell top shelf.” — Nick [20:36]
  • Analogy: “Is vintage Maker’s Mark the next Nvidia?”
  • Even “worst case,” you just drink the whiskey: “Unlike a stock, you can still open a whiskey and drink up the dividends.” — Nick [20:56]
• Caveat: Not investment advice! But it sure is tempting [21:11].
• Takeaway: It could be the best time in years for collectors and speculators to snap up blue chip whiskey at a discount [21:00].

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Breakfast in bed is dead. Besties, get this. New data shows that we are in a breakfast in bed recession.” — Jack [01:16]
• “Comedy and reality TV are the best business models in content.” — Nick [07:16]
• “The higher the production budget, the lower the stock price.” — Jack [08:35]
• “Like Oompa Loompas in a chocolate factory. That many chips?” — Nick [12:08]
• “It’s not grok, it’s not ChatGPT. Claude.” — Jack [10:24]
• “All time record high supply of whiskey is hitting the market just as demand is at an all time low.” — Jack [18:42]
• “Buy low, sell top shelf.” — Nick [20:36]
• “Unlike a stock, you can still open a whiskey and drink up the dividends.” — Nick [20:56]
• “It’s like a busy signal, but for the whole Internet.” — Nick [21:47]

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------|--------------| | Mother’s Day Trends | 01:00–02:28 | | Netflix Conquers Comedy | 05:15–09:34 | | SpaceX & Anthropic Data Center Deal| 09:34–14:08 | | Bourbon as an Investment | 16:05–21:15 | | Takeaways Recap | 21:25–21:59 |

---

Additional Rapid-Fire Business News

⏰ [22:05–23:17]

• S&P 500 profit margins hit 15% average, driven by AI hype.
• Shake Shack stock drops 30%, blamed on weather.
• Kalshi (prediction market) valued at $22 billion—outpaces DraftKings.

---

Best Fact Yet

⏰ [23:23–24:01]

• Military spouses control $1.3 trillion in annual household spending; brands often overlook their loyalty and buying power.

---

Tone & Takeaways

Nick and Jack deliver bite-sized, newsy content with lots of jokes, cultural references, and playful banter. Their takeaways distill every story to a clear business principle or actionable insight, whether about media margins, technology bottlenecks, or timing alternative asset markets.

---

Useful For:

• Business listeners and investors wanting actionable, pop-culture-flavored takeaways
• Anyone curious about trends in streaming, AI infrastructure, and alternative investing
• Fans of witty, rapid-fire business discussion and fun quotables

---

Transcript

[Nick]

This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Friday. The Real Friday, May 8th. And today's pod is the best one yet. This is a T. Boy.

[Jack]

The top three pop business news stories you need to know today.

[Nick]

I mean, you're at the coolest place in capitalism, Jack. We got three fantastic stories. Should we hit the show?

[Jack]

For our first story, Netflix is a joke. That's Netflix's comedy festival. And it has completely taken over Los Angeles for the third time because the

[Nick]

number one profit puppy in media right now is laughter.

[Jack]

For our second story, Anthropic signed a huge deal to rent compute from SpaceX

[Nick]

AI because the enemy of Elon's enemy is a data center.

[Jack]

And our third and final story. There's never been a better time to invest in a specialty bottle of bourbon besties.

[Nick]

Is whiskey the new Nvidia? Or did we just drink too much?

[Jack]

But yetis, before we hit that wonderful

[Nick]

mix of stories, I mean, like we said, best mix in the business. I love what we got going today, Jack.

[Jack]

T minus 48 hours until the mother of all American holidays.

[Nick]

Mother's Day, baby. America's floral super bow. Mother's Day.

[Jack]

The annual stress test of America's telecommunications industry. Always call your mother.

[Nick]

Pause the pot. But there is a big trend that Jack and I must update you on immediately.

[Jack]

Breakfast in bed is dead.

[Nick]

Breakfast in bed is dead. Besties, get this. New data shows that we are in a breakfast in bed recession.

[Jack]

The data's from OpenTable, so they're biased. But they say that only 4% of American moms want breakfast in bed this Sunday.

[Nick]

That's right. Only 4% of moms are willing to risk the maple syrup on the mattress.

[Jack]

Now, we know you prepped the pancakes. We know you whipped up the waffle batter.

[Nick]

But a vast majority of moms are paranoid that yogurt is getting on the duvet. Honey, watch out.

[Jack]

And this holiday is not about you. It's about her. So you're gonna have to just put that batter away and save it for another day, okay?

[Nick]

But the result of this phenomenon, as breakfast in bed hit all time lows, Mother's Day brunch out has hit all time highs.

[Jack]

According to OpenTable, 12pm on Mother's Day is the most in demand lunch reservation of the entire year.

[Nick]

And when mama goes out, she goes out big. These days, she goes huge.

[Jack]

The check sizes jump.32.

[Nick]

On Mother's Day, the wine order surged 56%.

[Jack]

Lobster sales jumped 90%. Steak sales jumped 93%.

[Nick]

Add it all up. Bestie's mother's Day brunch has become a boozy binge that makes St. Patty look sober.

[Jack]

Although we would have cleaned up those crumbs on the mattress and cleaned the sheets.

[Nick]

I mean, we like making popovers in the morning.

[Jack]

Is that a crime? Daddy's Happy Mother's Day to all those who celebrate.

[Nick]

Now go get her a reservation of Ripeye and a bottle of Brunello. Jack, let's hit our three stories.

[Guest or Producer]

Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the northeast met in the dorm they had an idea to cause a cultural is the best one yet but the best is the norm. Jack. Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%. That's a fat tip. T boy city on your at Liz. If you know, you know. Cause we read to go. We can't wait no more so just start the show. Start the show.

[Nick]

First, a quick word from our sponsor,

[Jack]

Monarch. All right.

[Nick]

Yetis, you're never gonna be able to guess how many accounts Jack has linked to monarch.

[Jack]

31.

[Nick]

Are there even that many, like, financial products out there? Yetis, he's got credit cards, checking accounts, brokerage Accounts, Retirement Accounts, 529 College savings

[Jack]

accounts for each kid. And my nieces and nephews. Nick.

[Nick]

Okay, I'm rounding up. Does that get us to 31? Where are we?

[Jack]

Don't forget my mortgage, my house, the car I own. They're all linked. And all their values. In Monarch, you see?

[Nick]

Besties. Jack actually linked everything to Monarch one year ago during a little bit of spring cleaning.

[Jack]

Until I used Monarch, I had a very messy, very chaotic spreadsheet. But now they're clean, synced and automatic.

[Nick]

Basically, Jack went full Marie Kondo on his finances. And he did it with Monarch, which can do your financial spring cleaning for you.

[Jack]

One dashboard that gets your entire financial life organized. No more clutter, no more mess, no more scattered logins. Just logins. Investments, property and more all in one place.

[Nick]

Get your first year, Monarch, Monarch for half off, just 50 bucks with promo code tboy.

[Jack]

Use code [e-mail] to get your first year half off. At just $50.

[Nick]

That's 50% off your first year at monarch.com with code T. Boy, ZipRecruiter. Yeti's the devil Wears Prada. The reason Miranda Priestley was perfect as editor in chief of Runway, it wasn't just her skills, it was her passion.

[Jack]

That cerulean monologue, oh, that was so good. Silk runs through her veins.

[Nick]

Nick. Her blood type is cashmere.

[Jack]

Jack, if you're hiring you want a candidate who's passionate about your role. But you can't get that insight from a resume unless you post your job in ZipRecruiter.

[Nick]

And now you can try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com T boy ZipRecruiter's powerful

[Jack]

matching technology finds qualified candidates quickly.

[Nick]

And ZipRecruiter has a new feature that shows you the most interested qualified candidates first so you meet the right people faster.

[Jack]

Instead of waiting for someone to find your job listing. ZipRecruiter does the finding for you, searching through its database of millions of job seekers.

[Nick]

And one of them is your Miranda. Find her before someone else does.

[Jack]

With ZipRecruiter, find candidates who really want your job on ZipRecruiter.

[Nick]

Four out of five employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a qualified candidate in the first day.

[Jack]

Try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com tboi that's ZipRecruiter.com t Boy meet your match

[Nick]

on ZipRecruiter for our first story, the Netflix is a joke. Comedy fest has taken over every Los Angeles performance venue in the city all

[Jack]

this week because Bravo's winning reality tv. We all agree on that, but Netflix is winning reality comedy tv.

[Nick]

Alright, so Jack, if we're gonna tell this story, you know, so a rabbi, a priest and a duck walk into a bar.

[Jack]

Are you gonna cancel us with the punchline, Nick?

[Nick]

So besties, here's the deal. Netflix loves stand up comedy because it's so low cost to produce.

[Jack]

So in 2012, Netflix planted their flag in the comedy genre once and for all.

[Nick]

2012 the bill burr special explaining how to win arguments with your girlfriend on stage. A lot of laughs streamed it.

[Jack]

Ten years later, after standup specials with Dave Chappelle, Aziz Ansari, Ali Wong and a bunch of other comedians, Netflix started to do it live.

[Nick]

That's right, 2022. Netflix is a joke. The comedy festival. Every two years since, it's been the biggest comedy fest in the world.

[Jack]

And this year's event started on Monday with 475 shows at 45 different venues

[Nick]

in Los Angeles, ending this Sunday with a roast of Kevin Hart where Nikki Glaser is going to tell us how.

[Jack]

We've got to wait, is Nikki Glaser hosting it again?

[Nick]

Well, we got to hand it to Kevin, Jack, because he can't reach. That's why we got to hand it to Kevin.

[Jack]

But we should point out from a business perspective, Netflix is double dipping here.

[Nick]

Oh, they are double dipping because Netflix sells Very expensive live show tickets at a profit, and streams all that content on Netflix later on.

[Jack]

But it's also sort of a triple dip, isn't it, Nick?

[Nick]

Because Netflix's content of filming one dude in one take on stage, that costs less than a Star wars scene. To make each one of these stand

[Jack]

up specials, Netflix just has to pay a comedian, the crew, and the electricity bill. It's unbelievably low budget.

[Nick]

But pause the pod for a sec, Jack, because it appears Netflix is actually quadruple dipping on these comedy specials.

[Jack]

Because this year, the Netflix is a joke. Comedy Fest has a reality TV show about comedy besties.

[Nick]

Here's the important point to keep in the back of your heads. Comedy and reality TV are the best business models and content. And we'll get to that in a second.

[Jack]

But Nick, to tell the rest of this story, we're gonna have to phone a friend. And that friend is Clay Aiken.

[Nick]

Yeah, why don't you sprinkle on a couple notes of context.

[Jack]

American Idol was the number one show in America on TV for eight straight years starting in the year 2003.

[Nick]

And that model inspired a bunch of spinoffs. Like, we've had an American Idol for

[Jack]

fashion, America's Next Top Model.

[Nick]

We've had an American Idol for Food Beat, Bobby Flay, and we've even had

[Jack]

one for business people, the Apprentice.

[Nick]

So Netflix is seizing this opportunity to make an American Idol. But for standup comedians, it's called Funny

[Jack]

AF and it's hosted by Kevin Hart. And viewers get to vote for the winning funny guy or the winning funny gal.

[Nick]

So, like American Idol discovered Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, Jennifer Hudson.

[Jack]

Funny AF is gonna discover the next Dave Chappelle. And the winner gets their own Netflix

[Nick]

Stand up Special finale happened live on stage. It was all this week at Netflix is a joke, the Comedy Fest.

[Jack]

The reason we're impressed with this Funny AF concept isn't because of Kevin Hart's universal hilarity or that the rock eats

[Nick]

Kevin Hart for breakfast.

[Jack]

We're impressed with Funny AF because of the business model.

[Nick]

So the rabbi and the priest are talking to the bartender, and then the duck says, jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Netflix?

[Jack]

The higher the production budget, the lower the stock price.

[Nick]

Yetis Wall street doesn't reward artistic achievement like the Academy does at the Oscars.

[Jack]

Wall street rewards profit achievement. They wish there was a Golden Globe for best margins.

[Nick]

Bravo is the most profitable piece of Comcast NBCUniversal because reality TV is super cheap to produce.

[Jack]

YouTube and Meta are 5 and 2 trillion do companies, because the content is user generated, you give it to them for free. Now, Netflix does pretty much everything, but they specialize in comedy. And now they're doing podcasts too, because both comedy and podcasts are cheap to produce.

[Nick]

But Jack, on the other hand, we've got Disney and Mickey's content that is incredibly expensive, man.

[Jack]

Disney's blockbuster theatrical films and their sports rights that they put on dspn, those delight audiences, but they squeeze profits and eventually sink the stock.

[Nick]

So Basties, if you want to understand who's winning in media, especially, especially in the stock market, simply look at the cost of the content.

[Jack]

The higher the production budget, the lower the stock price.

[Nick]

If the credits are long, the profits are short. For our second story, SpaceX just signed a giant deal with Anthropic to rent Elon's data centers. Never saw that throuple happening because the

[Jack]

enemy of Elon's enemy is actually Anthropic. But the bigger story here, Nick, is that the entire Internet is about to have a busy signal.

[Nick]

But before we hit those busy stories, we got a salacious story. The Elon Altman trial just finished its second week, and each day has just been wilder than the last one.

[Jack]

Here's the latest. Elon Musk was a sperm donor for the twin sister of a board member of OpenAI, the same twin sister whom Elon had four babies with.

[Nick]

But back to the business story here. Yetis, if you recently started using a chatbot, chances are it's Claude.

[Jack]

It's not grok, it's not ChatGPT Claude.

[Nick]

And the data says that. And this story proves it because it starts with an insane statistic.

[Jack]

Anthropic CEO Dario Amade announced this week that people are using Claude Anthropic's chatbot 80 times more than they did last year.

[Nick]

Sit down, stand up and Are you hallucinating that number, Jack?

[Jack]

Anthropic had forecast 10 times more growth than last year. But their extremely ambitious growth plan was extremely too cautious.

[Nick]

It was 80 times more. And the reason for this? Well, it's because people aren't using chatbots. People are using agents.

[Jack]

Sure. People are still asking one off questions to a chatbot, like, hey, Claude, what's this thing on my thigh? Do I need to see a doctor?

[Nick]

But a majority of compute is work being done in the background by your AI agent doing a bunch of tasks.

[Jack]

You're checking your email, your AI agent is doing the project that you don't want to do.

[Nick]

The most popular AI agent. It's Claude Code or Claude Cowork, a Vibe coding AI that boomed popularity since its big update in February.

[Jack]

That's why Anthropic is reportedly worth more than OpenAI now. $900 billion. Anthropic might even beat Sam Altman to IPO later this fall.

[Nick]

But yetis, here's what Jack and I find fascinating. Just like that viral bagel restaurant with the line out the door, when people begin using your tech product 80 times more, you need more space.

[Jack]

In this case, you need more data center space.

[Nick]

And here's the news. Anthropic is now renting the biggest data center in the world. They're renting SpaceX's Colossus.

[Jack]

It's actually not called SpaceX anymore, Nick.

[Nick]

Good point, Jack.

[Jack]

It's formerly called SpaceX AI.

[Nick]

You see, when SpaceX bought Xai earlier this year, two of Elon's companies, they bought their giant data center in Memphis, Tennessee as well.

[Jack]

That giant data center in Memphis, Tennessee is filled with Nvidia's chips.

[Nick]

Like Oompa Loompas in a chocolate factory. That many chips?

[Jack]

The Colossus data center in Memphis has 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, which cost $30,000 each.

[Nick]

We're talking 7 billion bucks of chips, baby.

[Jack]

And now they're being used by the Claude chatbot, not by SpaceX AI.

[Nick]

It's more than a lift. Besties. This surprising deal between anthropic and SpaceX, it really reveals three things to Jack and I.

[Jack]

The first thing it tells us is that Elon's AI chatbot Grok, isn't getting much traction after all. It has extra compute it can rent out to a competitor.

[Nick]

The second thing it tells us AI is not a bubble. It's the opposite. Demand is beyond analysts wildest expectations.

[Jack]

And the third thing this story tells us is that Elon's enemy is Sam Altman. Dario's enemy is also Sam Altman. And since the enemy of my enemy is my friend Dario is now friends with Elon.

[Nick]

So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in AI?

[Jack]

AI is causing a busy signal. But for the entire Internet, Yetis, if

[Nick]

you're a free chatbot user, you've hit a paywall at some point where it says you've reached your limit. Try again in a few hours.

[Jack]

But this week, even paid users of CLAUDE have been hitting limits because of a shortage in compute.

[Nick]

You see, CLAUDE doesn't have enough data centers to process all the work that users are doing with its AI.

[Jack]

The result is the equivalent of a busy signal. You try to use AI, but you can't. It tells you to try again later.

[Nick]

And now Claude's busy signal was short lived and ended thanks to Anthropic's new deal with SpaceX.

[Jack]

But it's only a matter of time before that compute gets maxed out and there's another busy signal.

[Nick]

And since AI competes with the same data center space as our regular Internet does for everything, even like recording this

[Jack]

podcast podcast, here's what we're saying. During moments of spikes in AI use, regular websites and apps. Those could stop working too if our podcast pauses.

[Nick]

Blame the AI Yetis this compute shortage. It's unlike any other shortage because it's invisible. We can't stockpile, we can't hoard it.

[Jack]

Think of it like a busy signal, but potentially for the entire Internet.

[Nick]

Now a quick word from our sponsor.

[Guest or Producer]

Hims.

[Nick]

Yeti's once in a lifetime technologies are a big deal. You got AI self driving cars, tallow

[Jack]

moisturizer, joking about the tallow, not putting animal fat on our skin yet.

[Nick]

But we are serious about GLP1s as a life changing technology. We've covered them on the pod with WeGovia.

[Jack]

At Hims, you can lose up to 20% of your body weight when combined with diet and exercise.

[Nick]

Plus WeGovy is the first ever GLP1 pill for weight loss, so there are no needles needed.

[Jack]

You see, it's extremely hard for me to eat some Doritos without eating the entire bag, but if I were on GLP1s it would kill that craving, wouldn't it Nick?

[Nick]

That's right. So through hims, everything happens online. You'll connect with a licensed provider who will determine if your treatment is right for you.

[Jack]

If prescribed, your medication is delivered right to your door. No insurance necessary.

[Nick]

So besties ready to reach your goals? Visit himss.comtboy to get a personalized, affordable plan that gets you. That's h I m s.comtboy himss.comtboy.

[Jack]

weight loss by HIMS is not available in all 50 states. WeGovy is the registered trademark of Novo Nordisk as to get started and learn more, including important safety information, WeGovy clinical study information and restrictions, visit HIMSS.com Dell

[Nick]

yeah, these Dell PCs with Intel inside are built for the moments that matter.

[Jack]

For the moments you plan and the ones you don't.

[Nick]

Yeah, built for the busy days that turn into all night. Order food at 2am, study sessions. You know the moment you're working from

[Jack]

a cafe and realize every outlet is

[Nick]

taken and the times you're deep in your flow and the absolute last thing you need is an auto update throwing off your momentum.

[Jack]

That's why Dell builds tech that adapts to the way that you actually work

[Nick]

though with a long lasting battery so you're not scrambling for the clock closest

[Jack]

outlet and built in intelligence that makes updates around your schedule not in the middle of it.

[Nick]

They don't build tech for tech's sake, they build it for you.

[Jack]

Find technology built for the way you [e-mail] DellPCS built for you.

[Nick]

For our third and final story, this one's wild. But besties. It may be the best time in history to invest in whiskey.

[Jack]

Here's why everyone is bullish on collecting high end whiskey bottles right now.

[Nick]

Yeah, it is the great liquor lull. The sober surge. We've told you all about it.

[Jack]

Alcohol sales are down across the liquor cabinet. The only shots Gen Z is taking are screenshots.

[Nick]

Nick they traded Negronis for like colostrum

[Jack]

serums these days because wellness is in Ozempic has cut your cabernet cravings. And there's new competition for whiskey in the form of cannabis.

[Nick]

Plus for American made alcohol sales are down even more because of the trade war. Yeah, the bourbon boycot we've been seeing a whiskey exports to the European Union fell 35% last year. To Canada they dropped 57% last year.

[Jack]

All as retaliation for Trump's tariffs.

[Nick]

Add it all up, besties, and American whiskey just had its worst year since Prohibition.

[Jack]

Whiskey sales in America fell 19% last year. That is brutal for the industry.

[Nick]

Maker's mark missing the mark. But besties, this is what Jack and I find wild. While whiskey demand just hit an all time low, whiskey supply just hit an all time high.

[Jack]

And for the industry, it's a case of worst timing imaginable.

[Nick]

It's the worst. And it all goes back 15 years to millennial hipsters.

[Jack]

Basically. When Nick and I graduated from college,

[Nick]

we were living in the East Village. And during the 2010s, millennials love for craft, everything was driving a bourbon boom. We were part of it.

[Jack]

This is when the IPA craft beer trend happened. We were also very kind of like snobby with our liquor choices too.

[Nick]

Yeah, you know that guy, you know your buddy Timmy. And then Covid accelerated this brown liquor surge.

[Jack]

We were stuck at home. We wanted to do DIY cocktails because we were bored.

[Nick]

So we hit a pandemic peak. Brown Forman, the owner of Jack Daniels, hit an all time high in 2020.

[Jack]

The stock quintupled that decade.

[Nick]

So in response to all that demand, whiskey companies increased supply. More barrels, more distilleries, more Whiskey.

[Jack]

According to U.S. treasury data, American production of whiskey hit a record in 2019. 218 million gallons.

[Nick]

But that record was eclipsed by a new record in 2023 of 299 million barrels. A 37% pop.

[Jack]

So in 2023, America produced more whiskey than ever before in history. But here's the thing. Bourbon must age three years before it becomes sellable.

[Nick]

So, Jack, I'm checking the calendar here, and all those pandemic barrels are finally coming to the market now.

[Jack]

2023 plus three years. That's right now. And that makes for some horrible timing.

[Nick]

All time high supply meets all time low demand.

[Jack]

All time record high supply of whiskey is hitting the market just as demand is at an all time low.

[Nick]

I believe that's what economists call an ugly couple right there, Jack.

[Jack]

The result is cheap, but delicious blue chip whiskey bottles right now are selling at bargain level prices.

[Nick]

All right, Jack, I've been all over the auction sites. Can I sprinkle on some context for you?

[Jack]

Go ahead.

[Nick]

Stag their 15 year. It was like 1,500 bucks two years ago. It's now selling for $700.

[Jack]

50% off. Not more than 50% off.

[Nick]

You know, Willits, it's got the funky bottle with a long stem. 900 bucks a bottle. They're going for 60% off right now.

[Jack]

Nick, where are you getting this data from whiskey auction sites.

[Nick]

I can't disclose my sources, Jack, because another one that I'm almost. I was scared to tell you, but Pappy Van Winkle, the most famous 15 year whiskey of all. I rarely see it for anything less than 2000 bucks. Like 1200 bucks a bottle. I saw the other day.

[Jack]

So this feels kind of like the stock market Covid collapse of 2020. All of a sudden, prices of everything are down 40%.

[Nick]

So Jack and I gotta ask, are we buying the dip? Are we buying the sip?

[Jack]

If you buy the dip, can you still sip?

[Nick]

And then do you put that dip on your lip? Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddy? Wondering about alternative assets?

[Jack]

This could be the perfect time to invest in a bottle of whiskey.

[Nick]

Oh, besties, we saved the best for last. Here's the plot twist. Due to low demand right now, whiskey makers are cutting supplies to zero.

[Jack]

They're turning off the distilleries, literally. Which means in three years, we'll probably have the opposite market problem that we have today. In three years, we'll have not enough whiskey coming onto the market.

[Nick]

So here's the if sobriety is a fad and people come back to alcohol

[Jack]

again, then in a few years, the bourbon you bough today for 50% off, you might be able to sell for 200% more.

[Nick]

That's why, according to Bloomberg, whiskey collectors are now trying to time this market

[Jack]

bottom on the Hope that in five years that 500 bottle of Blanton you bought will be worth five digits.

[Nick]

Besties is vintage makers mark the next Nvidia Buy low, sell top shelf.

[Jack]

Analysts could be wrong and this whole thesis could be wrong. And the blue chip bourbon that you splurged on might never appreciate.

[Nick]

Okay, but Jack, then worst case, you don't sell that bottle. You save it for a special occasion, your son's graduation in a few years.

[Jack]

I'm really compelled by this thesis, Nick.

[Nick]

You see, unlike a stock, you can still open a whiskey and drink up the dividends.

[Jack]

So if you buy a collector's bottle of bourbon right now, it might appreciate to something you could sell for in the future. And worst case, you give it to your son when he graduates from college as a graduation gift.

[Nick]

It's a fun night or two. Basties, this is not investment advice.

[Jack]

But.

[Nick]

But we did just place a few bids. Great. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us to get us into the weekend?

[Jack]

The Netflix is a Joke festival is finishing this Sunday in la and the punchline is that Netflix is quadruple dipping.

[Nick]

Oh, who's winning in media? The lower the production budget, the higher the stock price, the longer the credits, the shorter the profits.

[Jack]

For our second story, Anthropic is renting data centers from Elon SpaceX. Sam Altman hates everything about that shortage of compute.

[Nick]

It's like a busy signal, but for the whole Internet.

[Jack]

And our third and final story with bourbon. Demand low and supply high. Prices of specialty bottles of whiskey are at a discount right now.

[Nick]

This could be a historic buy signal.

[Jack]

But for bourbon but besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.

[Nick]

First, this earnings season has been an absolute banger so far.

[Jack]

Record high profit margins of the S&P 500 companies that have reported. So the profit margin is on average 15%.

[Nick]

And those profit margins, they're more than double the profit per dollar of sales from 2010.

[Jack]

And it's all driven by AI hype, War in Iran. It doesn't affect tech companies, hence the S and P is at record highs.

[Nick]

And second, Shake Shack stock plummeted 30% yesterday. Worst day for the Shack since the soggy fry drama of 2018.

[Jack]

And it was caused by a strange reason. According to the CEO, they blamed the weather.

[Nick]

Yeah, in the earnings call we noticed they said the word weather 12 times. Blizzards and wildfires specifically. That's what they called out.

[Jack]

And finally, Kalshi raised money at a $22 billion valuation this week. The controversy of prediction markets only drives their valuation higher.

[Nick]

And that means this prediction market stock has doubled since December, which had doubled since just last October.

[Jack]

And it makes Kalshi worth $10 billion more than DraftKings. That's the plot twist.

[Nick]

Investors love the this not regulated sports betting platform more than the regular regulated sports betting platforms because the not regulated

[Jack]

one doesn't get taxed either. So it's kind of a no brainer if you think about it.

[Nick]

Now, time for the best fact yet. This one slacked over to us by Kathleen Spearman, a military spouse in Charleston, South Carolina.

[Jack]

Military spouses in the US control an estimated $1.3 trillion in annual household spending.

[Nick]

Now that makes them one of the highest spending consumer segments in the country. And most brands have no idea about it.

[Jack]

The reason why they spend so much? Well, in part it's that one out of four military families has to relocate

[Nick]

every year, which means buying cars, buying new houses, furniture rotation. Every 12 months, you're hitting up Costco or Target.

[Jack]

And here's the kicker. Once a brand earns a veteran family's trust, that family is fiercely loyal to that brand.

[Nick]

So thank you to all the military spouses on this Military Spouse Appreciation Day. Yetis, you're looking fantastic today. Jack, you are glowing. Wait, did I tell you the one though, about the rabbi and the priest who walk to the bar with a duck and they order a whiskey?

[Jack]

You started it twice.

[Nick]

No, they invest in the whiskey. I didn't get to that part. Netflix, give us a call. We'll tell you the punchline. No, you'll give us the punchline in

[Jack]

three years when we decide if this whole investment thesis was right or not.

[Nick]

Yeti so many wins to celebrate this week. If you've got a win to celebrate, drop it in the comments. We want to get it on the pod. We also have a poll.

[Jack]

Are you investing in collector's whiskey? Like I'm extremely tempted to.

[Nick]

Hyhd voy Pause the pod. Call your make that reservation. Jack and I will see you Monday. And before we go, a happy 24th birthday to legendary Eddie Lauren Auer, who's celebrating over in New York City.

[Jack]

Happy Birthday to Divya Odiapin from Mansfield, Massachusetts. She was at our New York City Live show. Thank you for being there.

[Nick]

And Brooklyn Brink a happy big Birthday. Keep on celebrating with that cake in Brookline, Mass Just inside Boston.

[Jack]

And Happy Birthday to Lindsay Lieber in New York City.

[Nick]

Enjoy Dunlap's dancing to her birthday in Panama City Beach, Florida.

[Jack]

Happy birthday to Ximena celebrating in Panama City, Panama.

[Nick]

And Avery Patel, happy 22nd birthday down in Orlando, Florida.

[Jack]

And happy 25th birthday to T. Nguyen in Hoboken, New Jersey.

[Nick]

And John Gill. Enjoy the 27th up in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

[Jack]

Happy 75th birthday to Phil Shane who's doing a 150 day wordle streak in Mexico City.

[Nick]

Wow. And Kendall Jagger is getting the birthday bagel for her big day in New York City.

[Jack]

And a big shout out to Brian York in Scarborough, Maine who got a new job at a direct mail company doing logistics. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T boy.

[Nick]

Celebrate the wins.

[Jack]

This is Jack. I own stock of Netflix and Disney. Nick owns stock and Shake Shack and We both own ETFs of the S&P 500. The drop by GNC Yetis the wellness

[Nick]

space moves fast every day. An influencer is pumping some new product, ironically named pump product and it'll get

[Jack]

you huge even if you don't lift yet.

[Nick]

There's creatine in the colostrum in the protein.

[Jack]

GNC actually has experts who cut through all of that and hand pick what's

[Nick]

worth your attention the new ingredients, new formulas and new brands, and health and nutrition you need to know about.

[Jack]

The Drop is the section of GNC that curates the newest products to share with you what actually works.

[Nick]

We're talking trending ingredients, breakthrough formula stuff that's actually going to move the needle

[Jack]

on your goals, whether that's performance recovery or just getting huge.

[Nick]

So think of it as the VIP section of the supplement world. You're not waiting for something to blow up on TikTok to find out about it. You're already there.

[Jack]

Get a sneak peek at the newest formulas, flavors and brands coming soon to gnc.

[Nick]

New drops launch regularly so there's always something exciting to discover.

[Jack]

GNC.com TheDrop is the destination to discover something new to try today.

[Nick]

Get the facts you can trust on what's new and trending plan what's next

[Jack]

by browsing the coming soon calendar of [e-mail] the drop get the protein in the colostrum.