🏁 “Kars 4 Kims” — Formula 1’s girlfriend bet. Robinhood’s platinum card. Iran’s Insider Predicting. +Burger King bites back

Summary

The Best One Yet – Episode Summary

🏁 “Kars 4 Kims” — Formula 1’s girlfriend bet. Robinhood’s platinum card. Iran’s Insider Predicting. +Burger King bites back
Date: March 6, 2026
Hosts: Nick Martell & Jack Crivici-Kramer

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Brief Overview

On this episode of "The Best One Yet" (TBOY), Nick and Jack deliver three big pop-biz stories:

1. Formula 1’s massive American transformation and star-powered drama for the 2026 season
2. Robinhood's surprising pivot with a high-end, platinum credit card
3. Insider betting scandals erupting after military action in Iran exposes flaws with prediction markets

Interwoven is the duo's signature wit, fast-paced banter, and clever metaphors, as well as a lively mini-segment on the latest fast-food burger war.

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Key Stories & Insights

1. The New Era of Formula 1: Americanization & Sky-High Expectations

[06:00 – 10:40]

- F1 Hype Takes Over America

• "F1—it comes down to Cadillac, Tim Cook, and the Kardashians." (Nick, 00:58)
• Netflix’s Drive to Survive has mainstreamed F1 in the U.S., and an Apple-produced F1 movie saw box-office records topple—even besting Mighty Ducks.
  • "If the real life abs of the F1 drivers on Drive to Survive didn’t get your attention, then Brad Pitt's abs definitely did." (Jack, 07:04)

- Formula 1's Three Business Keys

• Cadillac’s Big Entry: General Motors’ Cadillac becomes F1’s 11th franchise, with a $450M buy-in, making F1 even more American.
  • "Cadillac has become the profit puppy of General Motors’ portfolio, up-leveling the brand’s luxury." (Jack, 08:30)
• Apple’s Streaming Deal: Starting this season, all F1 races will stream on Apple TV.
• Celebrity Gossip Fuel: Rumors swirl about Lewis Hamilton dating Kim Kardashian, raising press intrigue.
  • “The devil works hard, but Kris Jenner works harder.” (Nick, 06:52)

- American Races & Context

• U.S. now hosts three of 24 F1 races—more than any other nation ([08:02]).
• F1 stock trades at a high price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting massive built-in expectations—potentially setting up for disappointment (compare MLS and Apple’s Ted Lasso effect, [09:44 – 10:37]).
  • “Underdogs have upside. Favorites have expectations.” (Jack, 09:10)
  • “F1’s gone from underdog to favorite, and you see it in the stock price. Wall Street expects them to triumph this year, and that makes us nervous.” (Nick, 10:34)

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2. Robinhood’s Platinum Card: Rich Perks, Rich Debate

[10:40 – 15:18]

- Robinhood Like You’ve Never Seen

• Official launch: Robinhood Platinum Card, made of actual platinum and unveiled at JFK airport’s TWA terminal.
  • "Robinhood just went platinum. Literally. They got a credit card. It's actually made of real platinum, Nick." (Jack, 10:53)
• Aims squarely at affluent travelers ($695 annual fee) with luxury perks—travel credits, hotel discounts, DoorDash credits, Oura ring, One Medical, and elite lounge access.
  • “This is the biggest fee Robinhood’s ever charged by far.” (Jack, 11:53)
  • "With these really expensive cards, it's worth it if you use the perks, which sometimes they make you jump through hoops to take credit for." (Jack, 13:15)

- Is Robinhood Abandoning Its Roots?

• The brand known for democratizing finance and eliminating fees is now targeting the rich.
  • “Robinhood disrupted finance 10 years ago by eliminating fees. Now they’re making a move in the opposite direction—a literal platinum card you can only access if you have $700 to pay.” (Nick, 14:12)
• Simultaneously launching family investing products for young folks and kids.
• Dilemma: Is the company growing up or selling out?
  • “The company that killed finance fees just introduced one of the biggest fees in finance. So is Robinhood embracing maturity or abandoning its values?” (Nick, 15:08)

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3. Insider "Predicting": Profiting Off State Secrets (Prediction Markets & Iran)

[17:23 – 21:19]

- The Predictions War Unveiled

• On Polymarket (an open prediction market), users secretly “bet” over $100,000 each on the precise date of a U.S. attack on Iran—right before the real event.
  • “Who would bet $1,000 that the U.S. would attack Iran by 24 hours from now over breakfast? People who knew that would happen.” (Jack, 18:32)
• One account ("maga my man") netted $553,000 ([18:44]).
• Highlights the loophole: predictions markets are unregulated and perfect for insider exploitation.
  • "Those weren't predictions. Those were examples of knowledge-based bets." (Jack, 18:47)
  • “Profiting off state secrets doesn’t just hurt the integrity of the market, that’s a national security risk right there.” (Nick, 20:07)

- Historical Tech Analogies

• Civil War: first photographed; WWII: the radio war; Vietnam: the TV war; Arab Spring: the Twitter war.
• "And now the war in Iran is the predictions war, and besties, it is bringing more attention than ever to a glaringly obvious problem with this brand new technology: insider predicting." (Nick, 21:07)
• Congress is moving to ban members/staff from using these markets ([20:29]).

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Fast Food Beef: McDonald's Taste Test Backfires (Bonus Segment)

[01:30 – 03:21]

• McDonald's CEO mocked for his awkward TikTok burger bite, prompting rival CEOs (Burger King, Wendy’s, A&W Canada) to upstage him with over-the-top burger-eating stunts.
  • "The CEO of McDonald's awkwardly ate a burger on TikTok and it was so cringe." (Jack, 01:40)
  • “Burger King CEO published a video crushing a Whopper till his veins burst.” (Nick, 01:57)
• McDonald's CEO’s elaborate, ultra-corporate resume becomes a running joke.
  • "His birth certificate doesn't say when he was birthed. Says when he was launched." (Nick, 02:49)
• Advice for McD's: Lean into the viral moment—rename the Big Mac the “Big Product,” introduce "CEO sliders," and embrace the memes.
  • “Never throw a crisis in the trash.” (Jack, 03:12)

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Extra News Nuggets

[22:07 – 23:43]

• Warren Buffett's successor, Greg Abel, invests his full $15m salary in Berkshire stock to signal leadership confidence.
• Uber/Lyft prices up 10% in a year; rides down as consumers scale back ([22:44]).
• Protein bar brand Daveed expands into ice cream (“muscle-bound cow” branding, 30g protein pints).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The devil works hard, but Kris Jenner works harder.” (Nick, 06:52)
• “Jack, I heard his [McDonald's CEO’s] birth certificate doesn’t say when he was birthed. Says when he was launched.” (Nick, 02:49)
• “This is the biggest fee Robinhood has ever charged by far.” (Jack, 11:53)
• “Those weren’t predictions. Those were examples of knowledge-based bets.” (Jack, 18:47)
• "The company that killed finance fees just introduced one of the biggest fees in finance." (Nick, 15:08)
• “Civil War: first with photographs; Vietnam: first with color TV. Iran: first with insider predictions.” ([21:00])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Burger Wars & McDonald's CEO: 01:30 – 03:21
• F1 Americanization & Stock Analysis: 06:00 – 10:40
• Robinhood Platinum Card: 10:40 – 15:18
• Prediction Markets & Iran: 17:23 – 21:19
• Fun facts, side news, and audience shout-outs: 22:07 – End

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Tone & Style

The hosts combine fast-paced banter, business analysis, and playful metaphors, sustaining an upbeat and slightly irreverent tone ("profit puppy," "CEO sliders," "Jack’s love language is fact checking"). They draw clear business lessons while inviting reflection and engagement from listeners.

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Recap Takeaways

[21:27]

• F1’s challenge: Transformation brings risk when hype is already built into the stock.
• Robinhood’s pivot: From democratizing finance to chasing premium, elite market share—can it do both?
• Prediction markets: “Insider predicting” is the new insider trading, with real-world (and national security) implications.

---

This episode blends sharp business analysis with cultural commentary and a healthy dose of fun—a classic TBOY.

Transcript

[A]

This is Nick, this is Jack.

[B]

It's Friday, the real Friday, March 6, the day after Jack's birthday. Today's pod is the best one yet. It's a T boy.

[A]

The top three pop business news stories you need to know today.

[B]

But before the pod yetis, we still got tickets to our Washington D.C. show next Wednesday. Grab them right now.

[A]

Our special guest is Kara Swisher. The show is Wednesday, March 11th at the Arlington Drafthouse. We got tickets the links in the episode description.

[B]

By the way, Jack and I also grabbing dinner the night before the show and we need your local recommendations. Your ex.

[A]

Yes. Where should we dine in the District of Columbia? Let us know, hit us up in

[B]

the comments or the DMs on the Instagram over at T Boy Pod. In the meantime, and if we pick

[A]

your recommendation, we're inviting you to join us.

[B]

We're gonna invite K. Swish too. But Jack, three fantastic stories for today's show. What do we got for the T boy?

[A]

For our first story, the F1 racing season begins tomorrow and F1 stock comes down to three business keys.

[B]

F1, it comes down to Cadillac, Tim Cook and the Kardashians.

[A]

For our second story, Robinhood just launched their own platinum card made with actual platinum metal.

[B]

Literally. So Jack and I as always, whipped out the Amex and did the credit card calculus for you.

[A]

And our third and final story. $533,000. Wow. That's the amount of profit made by one insider betting on the war in Iran.

[B]

The war in Iran. This will go down in history as the first ever predictions war. But yetis, before we hit that wonderful

[A]

mix of stories, I mean, what a mix.

[B]

Love the mix. To go into the birthday weekend, Jack,

[A]

everyone's talking about the biggest beef in BE.

[B]

Oh, the McDonald's taste test. McLastrophe, we told you about it earlier this week.

[A]

The CEO of McDonald's awkwardly ate a burger on TikTok and it was so cringe.

[B]

So cringe.

[A]

The stock has fallen 4% since Jack

[B]

and I did a story on that burger. Oh, I'm sorry, I'm sorry. Not burger on that product. Product.

[A]

But here's the plot twist. McDonald's competition is jumping on this moment like a McFlurry.

[B]

Get this. Burger King CEO published a video crushing a whopper till his veins burst.

[A]

Wendy's CEO took a huge bite. Like 10 times bigger than McDonald's nibble.

[B]

Even the CE CEO of A and W Canada got in on the fun.

[A]

Canada. He invited the McDonald's CEO out to lunch to show him how to actually

[B]

eat a burger up in Toronto. But Pesky's one yeti named Srini noticed one fascinating detail in this story.

[A]

The McDonald's CEO that's being roasted by the Internet right now. He has the most charmingly corporate resume of all time.

[B]

Honestly, it's adorable. He's a Duke undergrad with a Harvard mba.

[A]

Then he was a consultant at BCG and a product manager at Procter and Gamble's soap division.

[B]

Then he sold water at Pepsi and was even president of Kraft Heinz Ketchup. You couldn't write this for a movie? Better, Jack.

[A]

No wonder he calls the burger a product.

[B]

This man's been indoctrinated in TPS reports for 30 years now.

[A]

His native tongue is actually corporate jargon.

[B]

Jack. I heard his birth certificate doesn't say when he was birthed. Says when he was launched.

[A]

It wasn't signed by a nurse, it was signed by hr.

[B]

But besties Jack and I got an idea here. We think McDonald's should lean in on the joke. Should support their CEO.

[A]

They should rename the Big Mac the big product.

[B]

Honestly, embrace Chris's unique food review style. It's a thing. Yeah.

[A]

Start selling bite sized burgers and call them CEO sliders.

[B]

Yeah. Eddies, we told you this before. Never throw a crisis in the trash.

[A]

Don't have it your way.

[B]

Have it his way.

[A]

Really tiny and awkward.

[B]

He's a kale guy. You can't blame him. Jack. Let's do our three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet. But the best is the norm. Jack.

[A]

Nick.

[B]

That's it. I don't even think they need to practice.

[A]

50%.

[B]

That's a fat tip. T. Boy, your at, Liz. If you know, you know. Cause we read to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. So, Yetis, Jack's instituted a new business model for his Airbnb hosting. And Jack, what is it? Here it is.

[A]

Host equals guest.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

I funnel all my revenue from being a host on Airbnb into one bank account and use that same bank account to book travel for myself.

[B]

Basically, it's Jack's host guest bank account for when he hosts and when he's a guest somewhere else.

[A]

When I lived in the City Neck, every time my apartment was available on Airbnb, it would get booked like that.

[B]

I mean, think about it. How often are you away from home. You got the bridesmaid, you got the shower, you got the bachelorette, you got the wedding.

[A]

That's three weekends away just for one wedding right there. Plus, you gotta visit your mother naturally.

[B]

Well, that's a lot of potential hosting that you could be doing on Airbnb. Let someone else stay at your place while you're away.

[A]

Take that host money and spend it when you're a guest somewhere else. Have a business model like me.

[B]

If you want to travel more. Hosting more is a great way to make it happen. Financially, your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how [e-mail] host madness AI yetis so when are we using AI? When we're jumping in T boy style to some research.

[A]

Why crunch numbers in that earnings report when a bot will do it for you?

[B]

Don't worry. Jack's love language is fact checking. So everything gets a double check. Fact check before it makes the pod you know it.

[A]

No AI slopper out.

[B]

No. So Jack and I are pumped to tell you about Manus AI the hot new AI agent that does more than just answer your questions.

[A]

It does tasks for you that you don't want to do to get your work done faster and better.

[B]

Manus is the most powerful AI agent for people who don't code.

[A]

We just asked Manus where the CEOs of the 100 most profitable companies went to college. Boom. It created it for us.

[B]

Or you could ask Manus to launch an e commerce shop for you. Boom. You're Anna Wintour.

[A]

Manus connects the most advanced LLMs with a set of tools to deliver real world tasks.

[B]

Oh, by the way, Manus means hands in Latin. Because like hands, Manus is pretty darn useful to humans.

[A]

And you can get your hands on Manus AI for free.

[B]

Visit Manus im tboy to get started with Manus and some T boy special credits.

[A]

That's Manus Im tbly

[B]

for our first story. The 2026 Formula One season begins this weekend and the world's most European sport is turning American.

[A]

Since expectations are incredibly high, F1 shareholders should be nervous.

[B]

Yetis most Americans. You first heard about F1 from Talladega, the Ballad of Ricky Bobby.

[A]

Remember Jean Gerard from Formula Not Possible yet? Well, as recently as five years ago, F1 was pretty much irrelevant here in the United States.

[B]

But now we are enjoying season eight of Netflix's Drive to Survive. The soap opera style reality racing show

[A]

Drive to survive is HBO's Hard Knocks. True, but for pistons and chassis, not football and chafing.

[B]

Yeah, it's more fabricated drama, more wheels, and more wax.

[A]

Oh, and a gift to the producers of season eight.

[B]

This is so good. What a rumor, Jack.

[A]

If rumors are true that Lewis Hamilton is dating Kim Kardashian.

[B]

I mean, Jack, the devil works hard, but Kris Jenner works harder.

[A]

And if the real life abs of the F1 drivers on drive to Survive didn't get your attention, then Brad Pitt's abs definitely did.

[B]

Because Apple's F1 movie is nominated for best picture in next Weekend's Oscars.

[A]

The F1 movie is actually the highest grossing sports film of all time.

[B]

It beat the Mighty Ducks.

[A]

So Apple decided to parlay that box office success into a legit Media deal with F1.

[B]

Get this. All F1 races this season are being streamed on Apple starting this Saturday tomorrow in Melbourne, Australia.

[A]

Put that stock on the Bobby Sebesti

[B]

that's all about F1 and Tim Cook and the Kardashians. But F1's evolution, it isn't just digital, is it, Jack?

[A]

The key is that F1 made an investment in the United States IRL.

[B]

Yeah, like they stopped sipping Perrier champagne and they started pounding the pale ales over here now.

[A]

Yet he's Formula One. They've had a U.S. grand Prix for decades. It's been in Austin since 2012.

[B]

But then F1 added a race in Miami in 2022 and then in Las Vegas in 2023.

[A]

Add it all up. The United States now has three of the 24 F1 races this season.

[B]

Jack, can you sprinkle on more context, please?

[A]

That's more than any other country has.

[B]

Sorry, Schumacher.

[A]

And one last reason Americans should finally pay attention.

[B]

We finally got a team. That's the other key. On Sunday, F1 debuts its 11th ever franchise Team Cadillac.

[A]

General Motors. Cadillac brand paid $450 million to become the 11th team of Formula One.

[B]

And the reason Cadillac is splurging just to be in F1. Well, the reason is bling.

[A]

Cadillac has become the profit puppy of General Motors. Portfolio up leveling the brand's luxury. That's right.

[B]

First we told you last year Cadillac sponsored the US Open. Now we're telling you Cadillac is in Formula one.

[A]

What's next? Paris faction week?

[B]

I mean, where's it gonna stop? It is luxury by association for the Cadillac strategy.

[A]

And that strategy just led to Cadillac's best full year of sales in a decade.

[B]

And best sales year for the Escalade since 2006, when every rapper was driving

[A]

on 22 inch rims.

[B]

Cadillac saw Ferrari at the pit stock that's at all of what he's having. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies? Not Verstappen over at Formula N. Underdogs

[A]

have upside, favorites have expectations.

[B]

Now, Yetis, we gotta sprinkle on some financial context here. F1 was bought by Liberty Media in 2017 for 4.4 billion bucks. Today it's worth 22 billion bucks because

[A]

Formula One got spun off into its own publicly traded stock.

[B]

You can buy Formula One, literally.

[A]

And that stock is up 16% per year since its acquisition, which is twice as good as the rest of the stock market.

[B]

They got their foot on the accelerator and the hype is very high. In fact, we'd argue A fantastic 2026 season for F1 is built into the stock price.

[A]

How do we know? Well, F1 stock right now is trading at over 44 times its earnings per share. That is expensive, Nick.

[B]

Oh, yeah. So expectations are high for success. But you know who that reminds us of? It reminds Jack and I of Major League Soccer.

[A]

Four years ago, the hype that F1 is feeling today was being felt by

[B]

Major League Soccer, another long overlooked sport in America that got a popular TV series, Ted Lasso, and an Apple TV deal.

[A]

But it hasn't worked out great for MLS since.

[B]

Not totally.

[A]

Fewer people watched MLS on Apple than they used to watch MLS on cable tv.

[B]

Yeah, ESPN cable tv. They got a built in big audience, sport fans. They're still trying to figure out how streaming works.

[A]

So F1 could similarly disappoint this year like MLS did. Despite the really high expectations, Bastile's Formula

[B]

One has gone from underdog to favorite. And you see it in the stock price.

[A]

Wall street expects them to triumph this

[B]

year, and that makes us nervous. For our second story, Robinhood just went platinum. Literally. They got a credit card. It's actually made of real platinum, Nick.

[A]

But Robin Hood stole from the rich to give to the poor, right?

[B]

That's correct, Jack.

[A]

This Robin Hood is also trying to serve the rich.

[B]

Yes, and we will ask if that's possible. But yetis, last time we covered Robinhood was back in February, and it was actually our top performing episode in the entire month on YouTube because Robinhood was

[A]

launching the People's Venture Fund.

[B]

The People's Venture fund. It actually IPO'd last night. Robinhood Ventures, and it's supposed to begin trading today.

[A]

It's a bundle of private stocks, but publicly traded.

[B]

It's like Andreessen, Robinhood, Horowitz kind of a thing. But here's the new news. Besties on the opposite end of the financial spectrum. Robinhood just launched a platinum credit card.

[A]

And the venue they announced it at was important. A former TWA terminal at JFK airport.

[B]

And that's because this is a travel card. They went full method acting on this thing.

[A]

Robinhood is joining American Express and Chase to offer a credit card that makes you feel fancy at the airport lounge.

[B]

But besties, we should point out. With lounge access comes a hefty annual fee of $695.

[A]

This is the biggest fee Robinhood's ever charged by far.

[B]

Oh, it is, Jack. And they need it. Ye crypto ice age set in. It has frozen Robinhood stock, which is

[A]

down 50% in just a few months.

[B]

Trust us, we're feeling it.

[A]

Yeah, we've stopped looking at our Robinhood app, let's put it that way. Actually, I haven't opened it in three weeks.

[B]

But, besties, back to the new Robinhood platinum cart. Jack and I did the money math, the credit card calculus, and the Amex style arithmetic.

[A]

For you, the question is always, is the fee worth it? 695 bucks. What do you get in return?

[B]

Basically, what is the perks? Break even if I get this thing.

[A]

So if you get this thing, you don't just get the VIP feeling of being in an overcrowded United club that you waited 30 minutes in line just to get into and you only have a 15 minute layover.

[B]

Yeah. And then you have to spend 10 bucks on a Diet Coke. No, what you get with this on the perks is $250 in DoorDash credit, $500 in hotel credit, $300 in travel credits, and $250 in autonomous ride credits.

[A]

You get a complimentary Oura ring subscription, too, plus one medical memberships, 5% cash

[B]

back on flights, 10% cash back on hotels and rental cars. If you book Robinhood's travel portal, Robinhood

[A]

says that all those perks add up to $3,000 a year. So if you use all those perks, it easily pays for the $695 annual fee.

[B]

And Jack and I do that credit card calculus. The same is true of Sapphire and Amex's platinum cards as well.

[A]

With these really expensive cards. It's worth it if you use the perks, which sometimes they make you jump through hoops to take credit for.

[B]

There's friction in the if, and that's why you gotta find it. But besties. What Jack and I find fascinating is the signal sent by the perks, because

[A]

each of these premium credit cards is acting like a social club. Of sorts.

[B]

You see, unlike the New York City based Chase and Amex, Robinhood's credit card seems to be signaling a Silicon Valley lifestyle.

[A]

$250 for taking Waymos to your one medical appointment.

[B]

And that's all tracked on your free Oura ring. I'm sorry, Jack. That's the unicorn of 90% of San Francisco.

[A]

Yeah, that Venn diagram, it overlaps the entire Bay Area besties.

[B]

This perk war, it is like any price war. It all comes down to lifestyle, brand you want to be with more. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Robinhood?

[A]

Can Robinhood also be Prince John Yetis?

[B]

Robinhood disrupted finance 10 years ago by eliminating fees. They let anyone buy stocks, even people with just 10 bucks in their bank account.

[A]

But now they're making a move that's in the opposite direction. A literal platinum card that you can only access if you have $700 to pay.

[B]

And that's not all. Also this week, Robinhood launched products for a person very different than the typical Robinhood trader who you're probably pick.

[A]

They launched their family investing experience, which includes custodial accounts for minors and stock gifting for kids.

[B]

And according to Bloomberg, the White House is considering Robinhood as a custodian for their new Trump baby accounts.

[A]

So we've said that you must either grow with your customer or try to stay the same age. Robinhood seems to be trying to do both.

[B]

Also, Jack, Robinhood stole from the rich to give to the poor. But now Robinhood's serving the poor and serving the rich.

[A]

Robinhood is trying to get the holy grail of becoming an everything store for everyone in finance.

[B]

But that leads to our question for you before we take a commercial break. What is it, Jack?

[A]

The company that killed finance fees just introduced one of the biggest fees in finance.

[B]

So is Robinhood embracing maturity or abandoning its values?

[A]

Drop your thought in the comment.

[B]

Now a quick word from our sponsor.

[A]

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That's indeed.com podcast. Terms and conditions apply. This isn't your job. This is a job for indeed sponsored jobs. Monarch.

[A]

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[B]

Why was Jack a spreadsheet jockey? Cause when he was paying off his student debt, Monarch didn't exist yet.

[A]

Well, one year ago, I proudly killed that spreadsheet spreadsheet I'd been building for 12 years.

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Use code [e-mail] for half off your first year. That's 50% off your first [e-mail] with code T. Boy. For our third and final story, 16 different people made 100,000 bucks in profit by predicting the US would strike Iran. Which reveals how easy it is to trade on state secrets.

[A]

This will go down in history as the predictions war yetis.

[B]

Let's go back one week from today, February 27, a day before the United States and Israel attacked Iran. What was happening, Jack?

[A]

A surge of huge bets were hitting polymarket all at the same time.

[B]

Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. You've seen it for elections, for sports. You can even bet on the next. Sorry, predict the next James Bond.

[A]

Any future event can become a prediction market on polymarket, including war.

[B]

And in this particular case, the bet was that when will the US attack Iran?

[A]

And on February 27, 150 different accounts wagered $1,000 or more that Iran would be struck by the United States the very next day.

[B]

Okay Jack, pause the pod for a second. Who would bet 1,000 bucks that the United States would attack Iran by 24 hours from now over breakfast?

[A]

People who knew that that would happen.

[B]

Get this yetis, one person on call sheet walked away with 553 grand making that bet, that exact bet.

[A]

And the account went by Maga, my man.

[B]

So yehs, we don't really need to paint much more of a picture here, do we Jack?

[A]

These aren't predictions. Those were examples of knowledge based bets.

[B]

Yeah, that wasn't like 150 people with a crystal ball. That was 150 people with classified information.

[A]

So yetis, add it all up. This is a smoking gun example of the biggest problem in the predictions market business model insider trading.

[B]

Or as Jack and I like to call this new phenomenon, insider predicting. A bet based on secret information.

[A]

Now to sprinkle on some context. In the stock market this is called insider trading and it's illegal.

[B]

Oh Bessie, if you got some material non public information and trade on it, the SEC will hunt you down and spank you. If you buy or sell a stock

[A]

on it, you can end up in jail because that's unfair and it hurts the integrity of the market.

[B]

But predictions are not regular. The industry is still figuring out what to do in real time.

[A]

Now last year insider predicting got some attention. We covered it on the pod, but they were mostly insider trading events related to sports.

[B]

It was like a trainer saw LeBron limping in practice, made a bet against the Lakers, that kind of a thing.

[A]

But when predictions involve classified government information.

[B]

Nick, clearly people with highly classified information from the situation room opened up their phones to place bets on military intelligence that only they had.

[A]

If your Cuba, you should watch the prediction market for will the US attack Cuba? And if you see a surge in yes bets, that means an attack is coming.

[B]

That's why besties profiting off state secrets doesn't just hurt the integrity of the whole market, that's a national security risk right there.

[A]

GI Joe and James Bond probably wouldn't do it. But a 23 year old DC staffer making 60 grand working for a senator. They could make double their salary by trading off their classified information. And it's legal. They're not even gonna get in trouble for it.

[B]

Yeah, it's all getting figured out in real time.

[A]

That's why a bunch senators just proposed a ban on people in Congress and their staffers from doing this kind of thing.

[B]

So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies over in the predictions markets?

[A]

This is the first predictions war.

[B]

Yetis the history of technology can be chronicled by the wars that were first documented by them.

[A]

The Civil War was the first to be photographed.

[B]

World War II was defined by the radio, both for the troops listening and the president speaking to the public.

[A]

Vietnam was the TV war. It brought the battlefront to the home front. In color, Jack.

[B]

In 2011, we had the Arab Spring. That was the Twitter war. The Middle east unrest was tweeted 24 7.

[A]

And now the war in Iran is

[B]

the predictions war and besties. It is bringing more attention than ever to a glaringly obvious problem with this brand new technology.

[A]

Insider predicting.

[B]

I knew you'd say that, Jack, but

[A]

did you bet on it?

[B]

Come on. I should have, Sorry. Predict Prediction. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us going into your birthday extended weekend?

[A]

Formula One's first season with an 11th team Cadillac begins tomorrow in Australia.

[B]

F1. It's gone from underdog to favorite. It's gone from upside to expectations.

[A]

For our second story, Robinhood launched a literal platinum card with a $695 fee and airport lounge access.

[B]

Robinhood gave to the poor. Now they're giving to the rich as well.

[A]

And our third and final story is prediction markets. They awarded obvious government insiders huge profits for bets made in military attacks.

[B]

Insider predicting. Some dude made 500 grand. The civil war was documented by cameras. The Iran war will be documented by predictions.

[A]

But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today.

[B]

First, Warren Buffett's successor took over the famous investing business at the beginning of this year. And a fun detail about his early moves.

[A]

Greg Abel is taking his entire Berkshire salary and buying one stock. Berkshire stock. Yeah.

[B]

This CEO Greg Abel, he makes 15 million bucks a year and he is buying 15 million bucks of Berkshire stock.

[A]

It's a bullish move. He's trying to signal to the market that this is a great stock. You should buy it too. It's also signaling to the market that, wow, this guy must have a lot of savings.

[B]

It's a lot of signals. And second, have you noticed that Uber and Lyft rides feel a little more expensive lately? Well, you're right.

[A]

According to Gridwise, Uber and Lyft prices jumped by 10% on average last year.

[B]

Get this, the average Uber or Lyft ride is now 20%, which is data we would give three stars to not happy about it.

[A]

And in this economy we're noticing because the majority of customers are reducing the number of rides as a result.

[B]

And finally, call a plumber because we got a leak. David Barr is allegedly getting into Ice Cream.

[A]

David, the protein brand that we interviewed the CEO of. There was an ice cream truck outside of a food expo with an enormous ripped cow on the side of the truck.

[B]

There's a lot for you to visualize here, Yeti. But like there is a muscle bound cow now on an ice cream tuck with a David Barr logo that says they're selling pints for 30 grams of protein in a scoop.

[A]

Only 2 grams of sugar. So it's consistent with their like protein efficiency model.

[B]

First was bars, then codfish, now they're protein maxing on the Sundays. Remember, they're not a product company. Their goal is to be a category

[A]

and if true, huge.

[B]

Now time for the best fact yet which to send you into the weekend. We gotta talk about your comments on yesterday's pod, don't we Jack?

[A]

Okay, we asked you yesterday what are some other famous phone numbers? Of course, Soulja boy told us. How did we miss this one, Nick?

[B]

I mean 678-999-8212, Jack.

[A]

Or how about Mike Jones 281-33-0800 foe Jack.

[B]

What about JG Wentworth? 1-87-7-CASH now, we also asked you to

[A]

share what my ticker symbol would be as it was my birthday.

[B]

Yeah, in honor of Jack's birthday, what stock ticker symbol would he be? And Jack, are you ready for these? Can I read these to you? Okay. Vest. Vest.

[A]

I'm investing CRSP Kahooky Crisp. Yep.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Yeah. QB1, that's a roundup situation.

[B]

But I it QB2 may be more accurate. Okay.

[A]

I love fact because you know, I love fact checking the pot.

[B]

And then finally, podf. What does that stand for? Jack?

[A]

Podfather.

[B]

If you know, you know. Yetis. You look fantastic going into the weekend. And if you're looking to give someone a gift, Jack and I owe exactly what you should get them.

[A]

Tickets to the show Wednesday in Washington dc. Actually Arlington, Virginia, just outside Washington.

[B]

We got K Swish hanging with us on the pod. It's going to be. It is a rock show of business news. You are going to have a blast with us in DC.

[A]

It's a 90 minute show and we do the full pod, plus the guest interview. Plus a bunch of segments that only the live audience gets to experience.

[B]

Date night. Bring someone. You're going to impress them. You want to get a promotion. You bring your boss, you're going to impress them. You want to bring a date? Trust us, you're going to impress them.

[A]

Yetis who snack together, stay together. They get the link in the episode description. We'd love to see you Wednesday.

[B]

Grab those tickets in the episode description. Jack and I will see you Monday. And before we go, a happy birthday to the legendary Kravici Kramer. Brooksie. He is a straight up meat stick protein bar of a three year old.

[A]

Right now, Brooks weighs 39 pounds. Wilder weighs 41 pounds. Wilder is almost twice the age of Brooks. Yeah, that gives you an impression of the dimensions of this chassis.

[B]

Daddies, we're measuring Jackson's weight in bench presses. And second, we got Jeff the woodworker Buxton down in Conroe, Texas. He made the bedside table nightstands for his family. And he's celebrating a birthday.

[A]

Happy birthday to Mariana Tran turning 40 in San Diego, California.

[B]

And Axel Patel's got a ninth birthday down in San Mateo, California.

[A]

Happy birthday to Graham Lewis in Vancouver, Canada.

[B]

And Zelanhid double birthday with his puppy over in lovely Los Angeles.

[A]

Happy birthday to Bruce Larario in Windsor,

[B]

Connecticut and Rachel Brock. Enjoy the birthday in Coeur d', Alene, Idaho. Happy 62 to Rob Brager in Richmond, Virginia and Alex Dressler. Happy Oceanside, California birthday.

[A]

And happy birthday to Cassidy Melor celebrating with a swim in lake. Hang on a second. Chaga Gaga Gaga. Maga maga Maga maga. Booga booga booga booga. Is that what it's called?

[B]

Then you stuck the landing on it. Jack And Eric Simisek is kicking butt renovating his first home over in Cleveland. Cleveland roam on the lake. And a good luck to Kiana Lai taking their first section of the CPA exam in California. You got this. We'll see you for part two soon.

[A]

And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T, boy.

[B]

Celebrate the wins.

[A]

This is Jack. I own stock of Netflix, Lyft and Berkshire Hathaway. And Nick and I both own stock of Apple and Robinhood. Imagine waking up to breathtaking landscapes, vibrant

[B]

culture and a welcoming community.

[A]

New Zealand is calling.

[B]

If you are a passionate early childhood primary or secondary school teacher, New Zealand

[A]

says, come teach us. With up to 10,000 New Zealand dollars

[B]

in relocation support, now's the time to make your move.

[A]

Find out more about moving to New

[B]

Zealand to [e-mail] open to existing qualified primary, secondary and ECE teachers. Note that this grant is only dispersed after a teacher has arrived in New Zealand and meets the other accompanying criteria.