Transcript
A (0:00)
Why is real estate sucky for you? Why is it hard right now?
B (0:02)
Man, oh, man? I think for. For us in the single family space, the hardest thing with real estate right now is people just aren't moving. 65 to 70% of people are locked into a mortgage under three and a half percent or something like that. Great example of this is I bought, and when I lived in St. Louis, a beautiful house, and we paid $750,000 for it. I just had a friend buy a house for $400,000 and. And his mortgage is the same as my mortgage on $750,000. Granted, we put a little bit more money down. He did a three and a half percent down loan. But still like that. Like four or five years ago, you could buy almost double the house for the same monthly payment. And so there's more inventory sitting out there on the market, but there's less inventory to buy for us on the distress side of things. And then when we do buy and we flip it, it's harder to sell. Like, we used to sell everything for the first five years that I was in real estate from 2020-20, mid 2024, we'd sell everything the first weekend on the market. And now, like, I never expect to sell anything the first weekend.
A (1:07)
And then on the commercial side, which I'm at, you know, the interest rates are just. They commercial real estate is closely tied to interest rates because if interest rates are higher, then, you know, investors can't make as much money off that. Interest rates go up. That means cap rates are going to go up, which means the values go down. And they're very, very closely related. So, like, there's properties that I bought for, you know, whatever call it $50 million, that today is worth 30 and that, like the. Like, the income could be higher, the profit could be higher, but simply because of interest rates. And there's a lot of factors that are pushing this, but simply because of that, values are just down significantly. Do you see a ton of values dropping in residential, or is that more of a commercial thing?
B (1:45)
It's very stable right now. Like, we saw, obviously, a crazy amount of appreciation 2020 through 2023, 2024 and 2025 has been stable, at least in my market. I know markets like Flor have dropped dramatically. Denver, like Boise, but I think the Midwest and even like the Northeast, the West coast, it's stable. It's not increasing at that 10, 12% a year that we saw. But in St. Louis, I think we increased it like 2.3% over 2025 so far. So it's still going up. The harder part is finding the deals and then selling the deals once you complete the flip or the wholesale. And then even on the rental side of things, renting those out right now it's significantly harder to rent properties. But something that's craz crazy like. And you alluded to this where in St. Louis there's an area called the Central West End. It was a nice area and things were trading at a 4 cap, 4 and a half cap in 2022 and now they're trading at a 6 to to 7 cap. Like I mean that's tens of millions of dollars on a 50, 60, 70 million dollar building. That's, it's insane.
