Final 2025 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Should Win

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Big Picture – Final 2025 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Should Win

Released on February 27, 2025, "The Big Picture" episode hosted by Sean Fennessy and Amanda Dobbins delves deep into their final predictions for the 97th Academy Awards. The discussion spans various categories, offering insights, debates, and personal takes on the potential winners and surprises of the night. Below is a detailed summary capturing the essence of their conversation.

---

1. Introduction and Setting the Stage

The episode kicks off with Sean and Amanda preparing listeners for their comprehensive Oscar predictions. They mention an upcoming live discussion on YouTube scheduled for 2:30 PM Pacific Time, emphasizing their excitement as the Academy Awards approach.

Notable Quote:

• Sean Fennessy [01:34]: "This is the Big Picture, a conversation show about our final Oscar predictions."

2. Best Animated Feature

The hosts examine the nominees:

• Flo
• Inside Out 2
• Memoir of a Snail
• Wallace and Vengeance Most Foul
• The Wild Robot

Sean favors "The Wild Robot" due to its unique narrative and technical nominations, while Amanda leans towards "Flo," appreciating its broad internet appeal and previous international recognition.

Notable Quote:

• Amanda Dobbins [18:30]: "I'm really going with last year's results where Boy and the Heron won over Spider Verse. And that is obviously a little bit of reflection of the respect for Miyazaki and the international nature of the voting body."

3. Best Documentary Feature

Nominees discussed:

• Black Box Diaries
• No Other Land
• Porcelain War
• Soundtrack to a Coup d'État
• Sugar Cane

Amanda highlights the trend of first-person documentaries that authentically present subjects' perspectives, while Sean acknowledges the complexity and political undertones influencing the category. Both express support for "Black Box Diaries."

Notable Quote:

• Amanda Dobbins [22:20]: "It's very tough and they're all extremely important issues."

4. International Feature Film

The contenders include:

• I'm Still Here
• The Girl with the Needle
• Emilia Perez
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig
• Flo

Sean chooses "I'm Still Here" for its compelling narrative and strong performances, whereas Amanda opts for "Emilia Perez," considering its extensive nominations and cultural significance.

Notable Quote:

• Sean Fennessy [30:38]: "I think the Wild Robot is also very strong. It has nominations for best score and for best sound. It's extremely unusual for an animated film to get a best sound nomination."

5. Best Original Screenplay

Candidates:

• Honora
• The Brutalist
• A Real Pain
• September 5th
• The Substance

Both Sean and Amanda select Sean Baker for "Honora," aligning their predictions with industry expectations and prior successes.

Notable Quote:

• Amanda Dobbins [66:22]: "I think if Adrien Brody doesn't win in Best Actor, it's because there is not a brutalist hive in the Academy."

6. Best Original Song and Score

Original Song Nominees:

• El Male from Emilia Perez
• The Journey from The 6888
• Like a Bird from Sing Sing
• Mi Camino from Emilia Perez
• Never Too Late from Wicked

Sean predicts "El Male" as the winner, citing its strong nomination and backing, while Amanda favors "The Seed."

Original Score Nominees:

• Daniel Blumberg for The Brutalist
• Vocal Volker Bertleman for Conclave
• Camille and Clement Ducaul for Emilia Perez
• John Powell and Stephen Schwartz for Wicked
• Chris Bowers for The Wild Robot

Both hosts back Daniel Blumberg for "The Brutalist," appreciating its innovative composition and emotional depth.

Notable Quote:

• Sean Fennessy [47:47]: "It is a very close race. Interesting that we're split."

7. Technical Categories: Production Design, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling

Production Design Nominees:

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Dune Part 2
• Nosferatu
• Wicked

Both Sean and Amanda predict "Wicked" to win, praising its immersive world-building and aesthetic execution.

Costume Design Nominees:

• Ariane Phillips for A Complete Unknown
• Lisi Crystal for Conclave
• Janti Yates and Dave Crossman for Gladiator 2
• Lyndon Muir for Nosferatu
• Paul Tazewell for Wicked

"Wicked" emerges as the favorite, with both hosts acknowledging its visually captivating costumes.

Makeup and Hairstyling Nominees:

• A Different Man
• Emilia Perez
• The Substance
• Wicked

Both choose "The Substance," recognizing its exceptional makeup effects that enhance the film's narrative.

Notable Quote:

• Amanda Dobbins [59:43]: "It was like going to a Bob Dylan concert."

8. Best Film Editing and Cinematography

Film Editing Nominees:

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• Wicked

Sean supports "Anora," while Amanda aligns with "Conclave," reflecting their nuanced understanding of narrative pacing and technical prowess.

Cinematography Nominees:

• Laurel Crawley for The Brutalist
• Greig Fraser for Dune Part 2
• Paul Guillaume for Emilia Perez
• Ed Lackman for Nosferatu
• Maria Jaron Blaschke for Nosferatu

Both hosts back Laurel Crawley for "The Brutalist," commending the film's visual storytelling and atmospheric depth.

Notable Quote:

• Sean Fennessy [65:28]: "It does matter a lot."

9. Best Original Screenplay and Best Director

Best Director Nominees:

• Sean Baker for Anora
• Brady Courbet for The Brutalist
• James Mangold for A Complete Unknown
• Jacques Odiarn for Emilia Perez
• Coralie Farja for The Substance

Both predict Sean Baker for "Anora," emphasizing his directorial vision and industry respect.

10. Acting Categories

Best Actor in a Leading Role Nominees:

• Adrien Brody for The Brutalist
• Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown
• Colman Domingo for Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes for Conclave
• Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice

Both hosts favor Adrien Brody for his remarkable performance, drawing parallels to his previous accolades.

Best Actress in a Leading Role Nominees:

• Cynthia Erivo for Wicked
• Carla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez
• Mikey Madison for Honora
• Demi Moore for The Substance
• Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here

Amanda and Sean both support Mikey Madison for "Honora," applauding her nuanced portrayal and emotional depth.

Supporting Acting Categories:

• Yura Borisov for An Aura
• Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain
• Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce for The Brutalist
• Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice

Sean and Amanda select Kieran Culkin for his outstanding performance, recognizing his ability to convey complex emotions.

Notable Quote:

• Sean Fennessy [71:12]: "I think that Anora is a very good character."

11. Best Picture Predictions

The final and most anticipated category, Best Picture, sees both hosts gravitate towards "Anora." They discuss the film's widespread industry support, critical acclaim, and substantial nominations across various categories, solidifying its status as a frontrunner.

Notable Quote:

• Amanda Dobbins [86:41]: "I'm choosing Anora."

12. Closing Remarks and Future Episodes

As the discussion wraps, Sean and Amanda reflect on the unpredictability of the Oscars and tease their live YouTube discussion post-telecast. They express enthusiasm and anticipation for the event, encouraging listeners to join their live session.

Notable Quote:

• Sean Fennessy [93:17]: "You'll just have to tune in Sunday night to find out."

---

Key Takeaways:

• "Anora" emerges as the leading contender for Best Picture, supported by strong performances and technical accolades.
• "The Wild Robot" and "Flo" are closely watched in the Best Animated Feature category.
• Documentary and International categories reveal a preference for films with authentic, firsthand narratives.
• Technical categories like Production Design and Cinematography highlight the craftsmanship behind visually stunning films.
• Acting nominations showcase a blend of seasoned actors and rising stars, with Adrien Brody and Mikey Madison standing out.

Prominent Quotes with Timestamps:

1. Amanda Dobbins [18:30]: "I’m really going with last year’s results where Boy and the Heron won over Spider Verse. And that is obviously a little bit of reflection of the respect for Miyazaki and the international nature of the voting body."

2. Sean Fennessy [47:47]: "It is a very close race. Interesting that we’re split."

3. Amanda Dobbins [59:43]: "It was like going to a Bob Dylan concert."

4. Sean Fennessy [71:35]: "I think there's not a ton of evidence that it's gonna happen."

5. Amanda Dobbins [86:42]: "I have Conclave."

---

For more in-depth discussions and ongoing updates, listeners are encouraged to follow "The Big Picture" on their preferred platforms and join the live YouTube session on Oscar night.

Transcript

[Bill Simmons]

Hey, it's Bill Simmons letting you know that we are covering the White Lotus on the Prestige TV Podcast and the Ringer TV YouTube channel every Sunday night this season with Mali Rubin and Joanna Robinson.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Also on Wednesdays, Rob Mahoney and I will be sort of diving deep into theories and listener questions. So you can watch that on the Ringer YouTube channel and also on the Spotify app.

[Bill Simmons]

Subscribe to the prestigious podcast feed, subscribe to the Ringer TV YouTube channel. And don't forget, you can also watch these podcasts on on Spotify. White Lotus. Let's go. This episode is brought to you by Marvel Television's Born Again. Charlie Cox returns as vigilante lawyer Matt Murdock and Vincent D'Onofrio as former mob boss Wilson Fisk. The darker side of Matt Murdock is revealed when he gains a new perspective on his role as the Daredevil and faces an internal struggle between justice and revenge. The devil's work is never done. Don't miss the two episode premiere of Daredevil Born Again on March 4th, only on Disney. This episode is brought to you by Cars.com whether you're buying your first set of wheels, upgrading to fit your growing family, or looking for something to have a little fun with on the weekends, visit cars.com and explore the possibilities. Up to 50,000 cars are added daily. So wherever life takes you, there's a car for it on cars.com find your next possibility on cars.com where to next?

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm Sean Fennessy.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm Amanda Dobbins.

[Sean Fennessy]

And this is the Big Picture, a conversation show about our final Oscar predictions. It's almost here. Just a few more days. The Academy Awards. The 97th Academy Awards are happening on Sunday. Reminder. Speaking of Sunday, we 2/40 somethings striving valiantly to make content. We'll be going live on the YouTube platform.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

To have a discussion at 2:30pm Pacific, 5:30pm Eastern Time. I won't be discussing central time or mountain time. We're gonna talk about 4:30, 3:30. Got it. Okay, good. We're gonna talk about our predictions.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's an international academy and. And a big world.

[Sean Fennessy]

What is so New Zealand time. What will we be for?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Plus 16 hours, I think.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. In Sri Lanka. What's that?

[Amanda Dobbins]

So that's like, it's like 16 minus 24. Minus 16 is 8. So no, but. Okay. I can't do that in South Africa.

[Sean Fennessy]

What time will it be?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I don't have my world clock app right now because I put my phone away in Latvia.

[Sean Fennessy]

The folks at home who will be rooting for the film flow. What time will it be?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think it'll be the middle of the night.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Based on my understanding of that, you know, it could be 9, 10, 11 East. You go.

[Sean Fennessy]

What about the Parisians rooting for Emilia Perez?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay, so it starts 230 plus. I think it's nine.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. So 11:30, 11:30pm, Parisians tune in, we'll be on YouTube talking about what's going to come in the Academy Awards and just some other stuff.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

I might have a drink. I might have thinking about it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You were saying that we're going live on the YouTube platform. What if I go rogue at some point and just go live on Instagram.

[Sean Fennessy]

Solo whilst we're on YouTube?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I think probably like during a commercial or something.

[Sean Fennessy]

I would welcome that. I think that's great.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I don't have the password, so we'd have to arrange that.

[Sean Fennessy]

But what about on your personal account?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Oh, well, I mean, I guess I could just go in my personal account.

[Sean Fennessy]

Is it important for you to have a lot of followers on Instagram?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No.

[Sean Fennessy]

Do you not want them?

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's not that I don't want them. I want everyone to behave.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's not really part of the equation here. You're on social media.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's true. No, I'm just. I'm doing it for me.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And I'm doing it because I'm lightly addicted to Instagram and lightly addicted to buying things.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes.

[Amanda Dobbins]

But, you know, we all have our vices. We're all coping well.

[Sean Fennessy]

The more followers you get, the more free stuff, influential power you'll have.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I. I do understand that. I am comfortable with the level of power that I have right now.

[Sean Fennessy]

I know that's not true. I can confirm that is not the case.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I don't think it reflects well on me to want more.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, I'd like to tell you about my power.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

My power was expressed clearly by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences this morning when they announced that on the telecast they will be showing clips. Did you see this news?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I read a very long and verbose interview with the producers, but somehow my eyes glazed over for the clips. I'm happy for you. They also point Blake were like, it's gonna be three and a half hours.

[Sean Fennessy]

Did they say that?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes, they did. Oh, they're like, we know you want it to be three. It just. We can't do it. It'll be three and a half.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's great. Why not four?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Because we want people to watch. And also because I'd like to go to bed before 2am well, they'll get.

[Sean Fennessy]

To see clips, obviously. I've been banging the drum for clips for a very long time. I'm very excited about that. A lot of great performances this year. I look forward to seeing them shown on television. A lot of movies that a lot of people haven't seen. So I think this is helpful in that respect. I, you know, I don't think, while I do think that sometimes bullying works, I don't think that bullying in this particular case worked. I think what happen is they had announced this plan to have the Fab Five come on and introduce each nominee and talk about their work. And then the Carla Sophia Gascon thing.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Happened and nobody wanted to do that. Who would want to do that?

[Sean Fennessy]

Who would want to come up and advocate for that performance? I think a little challenging.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I saw that Carlos. Sophia Gascon will be in attendance on Netflix's dime.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. So they can afford it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

They, I mean, they definitely can. I just, you know, we have been noting their spending pullback in, in, in that area and so now living up to their commitment, I guess.

[Sean Fennessy]

You think she's gonna win?

[Amanda Dobbins]

What if she does?

[Sean Fennessy]

I would say crazier things have happened, but that would probably be the craziest.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Thing that has ever happened. I still think Will Smith, Will Smith slapping Chris Rock is the craziest thing that happened. But that could be, it could be top five.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think there was a streaker live on stage at the Academy Awards. We had a moonlight.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, they announced the wrong winner. But I think that you would get.

[Sean Fennessy]

Little Feather accepting on Marlon Brandon.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's why I said top five.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. Which, that's a good episode for us.

[Amanda Dobbins]

The reaction faces though, if she wins, I think would rival the like near classic Moonlight Lala, like audience reaction shot with like Busy Phillips, Ben Affleck, Matt Damon, everyone. Like, you know, it's, it's a really, really good.

[Sean Fennessy]

Will Busy Phillips be in attendance this year as. Because it probably depends on if Michelle Williams is invited. Right?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes. I, I, I don't know. I like Busy Phillips.

[Sean Fennessy]

She appeared in the film mean girls in 2024.

[Amanda Dobbins]

She did? Yeah. But she lives in New York now, so I don't know whether she's going.

[Sean Fennessy]

To make the dividing line. Well, anyone living in New York is not invited to the Oscars.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I assume, like, someone has to fly her in probably. And then if she's not promoting a movie, I don't know. I don't Mean Girls is not nominated at the.

[Sean Fennessy]

No.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's stunning turn of events.

[Sean Fennessy]

Wait, I wanted to ask you something. I've been thinking about 2026 a lot. Right. You're. You're very mad that we're not going to Cannes together this year, right? You want us to go to Cannes? I do. I will go to Cannes in 2026. Right. I've said. Committed to that.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You said that last year.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm committing to it. I think 2026 should be maybe not a full bucket list year for the show, but we should change things up. And now I'm like, we've never been to the Academy Awards. I always said I would never go.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

But I'm thinking about 75 year old Sean and will I go to my grades?

[Amanda Dobbins]

What about 100?

[Sean Fennessy]

What if I'm at 100?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, the 100th Academy Awards. We're pretty soon. We're pretty close.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. That would be 2028.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

I make no promises on this being here in 2028. Yeah. Yeah. I'll be 46. I would like to be in Barbados in 2026.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, I would like to be in Barbados right now.

[Sean Fennessy]

So get that Instagram follower count up and it can happen. Can happen to you.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That is really what I want. What I want is to have enough. Here's how many Instagram followers I want that I can get, like free and. Or heavily discounted rates at luxury hotels.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Because that's just. The prices are out of reach. You know, I just. It's really. It's too much. I just. Have you seen what Rosewood is charging? It's. It's.

[Sean Fennessy]

I don't even know what Rosewood is.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes, you do. It's a chain. You know, they have the. The Miramar in Santa Barbara that's like literally right on the highway and costs $5,000 for, like a starting room. And that's where, like, Bob Iger had one of his, like, Disney summits before he came back. And then there's one in Hawaii that I'd like to go to. But again, I'm just. I'm just one woman with not enough Instagram followers.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm not only. Not in that stratosphere.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm not even pining for that stratosphere.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You do like a luxury hotel, though. Yeah. So wouldn't it be nice to be able to go. They've got kids clubs, you know, so. So then you can say, hey, Alice, like, here's a nice day camp.

[Sean Fennessy]

No, I've stayed at the Four Seasons, a handful of Times in my life, every time I had an amazing experience. It's not.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's fun to pull off getting discounts.

[Sean Fennessy]

I get it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's what I'm saying. Yeah. You mentioned Barbados and I immediately went to resort life, which is where I'd like to.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think you just have names at your fingertips that I'm not really sure.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, there is the Rosewood Kona. I'm interested if anybody would like to host me. And I love. Yeah. And I love to post on Instagram. So I just like.

[Sean Fennessy]

You will. You will whore yourself out for high quality conference.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I will do what?

[Sean Fennessy]

Settle down. Settle down.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Do they need a screening room? I will program that shit all summer long.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. You know, you're.

[Sean Fennessy]

You are available to future partners is what you're saying.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. So I. But I do have to get more Instagram followers for that. So that can be one of our 2026 goals along with Cannes. Venice, or are you thinking about it for. Is it percolating for this year?

[Sean Fennessy]

Well, well, we were texting about this. What do we think is happening at Venice?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, there are rumors. We know nothing.

[Sean Fennessy]

We don't know anything.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You know, my Italian peers have not looped me in on this yet.

[Sean Fennessy]

Peers.

[Amanda Dobbins]

But there are rumors that because of the August 9th schedule date for the release of the Paul Thomas Anderson film and how close that is to the date of the Venice Film Festival, that things might get pushed a little bit and there might be a Venice debut for PTA this year. Plus a new Brady Courbet film possibly. And Mona Festival. Yes, maybe.

[Sean Fennessy]

So that's more reason to potentially go to Venice.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Obviously that's where the Brutalist had its. Had its big.

[Sean Fennessy]

Certainly. Did you. I. I have to buy a ticket to the Telluride Film Festival Saturday morning.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's when they go on sale. So I'm going to buy the ticket.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

Just because if you don't, then you don't have it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

So I'm going to buy it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I was thinking about just applying for a Venice credential for you. That's very sweet because normally when I. You have to have an assigning letter and I always write your assigning letter for me and then I'll write an assigning letter for you and then, yeah, we can just send it on our way.

[Sean Fennessy]

So in the PTA arc, obviously we had a show when licorice pizza came out, but it was sort of at the tail end of a Covid period.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It was.

[Sean Fennessy]

And that film was maybe not like the grand scale kind of statement. It was a much smaller, more personal movie, more episodic. People haven't really seen me kind of go full crazy. Paul Thomas Anderson. This movie presents an opportunity to do so. I think it's $150 million action epic. Started rereading Vineland, which has been every Pynchon book, is just a lot of book. You know, after 18 pages, you're like, I have consumed a lot of information.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Especially those of us who aren't regularly reading fiction. Sean. Fantasy.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes, very true. I've read plenty of Pynchon in my life, but it's been a while since I consumed it. That.

[Amanda Dobbins]

So you started now for an August?

[Sean Fennessy]

Pretty much. That was part of my thinking. Okay, so, yeah, maybe Venice is in our future. I don't know. I don't know. I'm thinking about would be the clarion call of pulpit.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Think about how happy I would be.

[Sean Fennessy]

I know, I know. The one thing that really bums me out is, like, I'm not going for one movie or six movies. I'm usually going for 22 movies.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And so the idea, well, you could.

[Sean Fennessy]

Do that, but I can't go for 11 days. Nobody cares about this.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think you could probably do 11 days in 11 movies in six days. It just wouldn't. I don't know if you would see every single hit at or like every single important movie at the Venice Festival, because they do ration them out one day at a time. Like, I missed Hitman.

[Sean Fennessy]

Oh, right.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Cause it was just. It was too late. And I had to, like, extend my trip in order to be able to see Priscilla there, which was worth it.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay, well, we'll come back to that.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay, so we're Venice this year, maybe, but Cannes and possibly the Oscars next year.

[Sean Fennessy]

Let's just think about it. The problem with going to the Oscars and maybe if the Academy is listening to this show, is there a world where you could. There's a space for us to record our episode immediately after the. The telecast.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's really the thing that we don't have. You know, like our. Our friends at the Ringer NFL show over the years and at the Ringer Fantasy football show, too, have found ways to record on site after the Super Bowl.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

It didn't make sense to send people to the super bowl for what we do at the Ringer on the audio side. But now we have a solution, right? Can the Academy help us create a solution?

[Amanda Dobbins]

We can take over the Johnny Rockets in the mall directly atop the Dolby.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's not a bad idea. To build this. I think it costs a lot to rent that space.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Can I tell you something? Just absolutely loved Johnny Rocke as a child. I have not been in 30 years, but I listen again, it's just like a 50. Yeah. And. And like a. A smash burger if they're looking for partners.

[Sean Fennessy]

You. You have a very basic taste when it comes to that kind of dining experience. I say that with no malice.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Oh. As opposed to various flourishes.

[Sean Fennessy]

You want down the middle.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I. I do not have a lot of patience for quote, unquote, fine dining.

[Sean Fennessy]

Right. High cuisine.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. I think, like. And I think it relates in a lot of the ways to. To my taste in art and film as well. Where. Where. The more. Yes, Chef. You have in it, and I love seasons one and two of the Bear, but the more it becomes some sort of, like, deep, psychological, you know, expression of self. And also the more athletic the cooking becomes, the more I'm like, like, yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay, you want to just be served what you want, or.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I do like more. I like simpler, rustic, you know, less fussy cooking, fussiness. I just get out of that.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think Johnny Rockets. I think rustic. I think material's pulled from here in.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Atlanta in 1990, you know, and I like fucking.

[Sean Fennessy]

Wow. How old are you? Okay, let's predict Oscars. We have a lot of categories to go through. We have 23 categories to go through today. 2026 is going to be exciting, but let's not let 2025 get away from us now. Historically, we both do pretty well with our predictions. There's a lot of newcomers to this show. This show's kind of changed and evolved over the years. We're on YouTube. We're soon to be on the Spotify video platform. Hello to everyone who's just joining us. We've been predicting Academy Awards for seven years now on the program. This year is a little bit flummoxing in about five categories for me, and I still don't totally have my head around where I have a lack of confidence, I think, is what I'm trying to say. How do you feel?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think it's brave of you to say that out loud. And we're proud of you.

[Sean Fennessy]

Thank you.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And maybe that can be another one of our goals in 2026, is accepting our emotions. I've been taught that I'm supposed to teach my toddler, like, it's okay to feel disappointment. It's okay to feel nervous. So it's okay, Sean, to feel nervous.

[Sean Fennessy]

That it's okay for you to feel nervous?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, But I do, I feel okay about them. We always get to this point where we think that we know, we think we have a pretty good handle. And despite the uncertainty of this year and the changing nature of the race, like, I think I have a sense, like there is a trend pattern in most categories. I agree with you that it feels a little less certain and way more likely that a surprise can happen at this point. I always find myself overthinking it. And you're very prone to this as well because we've been talking about it for so long, we're so certain, or there is among pundits and people who spend too much time on this such a consensus that we start looking for the angles. And I wonder if we're going to be both be a little extra susceptible to that right now because we're like prepped for some surprises. So now we're turning like over a few more rocks than we need to.

[Sean Fennessy]

You're right. What you could do here is you could end up with like a 12 out of 23 or 11 out of 23 showing because there's a. It feels very coin flippy in five or six races and then if you take a couple of other chances beyond those races, you might be in trouble.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

So let's just. Well, let's just talk through it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

I have arranged this in a very specific order.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

Hopefully it's an interesting order for the listeners at home. The big races will be at the end of this podcast. You'll have to listen all the way to the end. But let's start with three of the feature focused categories. Animated feature film, documentary feature film, and international feature film as a starting point. So the nominees for animated feature film, which we have known for the most part, and even if you go back to our big Oscar bet, we were pretty close on these way back when, include flo, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Vengeance Most Foul and the Wild Robot. This really feels like a two film race.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

And those two films, I think represent two very different ideas of what movies are right now and maybe what they can be. You've got a classic big DreamWorks production and adaptation of a beloved children's book in the Wild Robot. And you've got this small Latvian film that came out of nowhere flow a wordless sort of narrative, less exploration of existence.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And capybaras.

[Sean Fennessy]

Capybaras. We got dogs.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. But when I saw the capybara, because I've seen all of these films now and when the capybaras showed up. I was like, oh, okay. And the Oscar goes to Flo.

[Sean Fennessy]

So that's how you're right.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And I do actually. It's a combo of, I think people, you know, capybaras are an Internet meme type thing. But I'm really going with last year's results where Boy and the Heron won over Spider Verse. And that is obviously a little bit of reflection of the respect for Miyazaki and the international nature of the voting body. But Flo is also nominated in international feature.

[Sean Fennessy]

It is.

[Amanda Dobbins]

So it certainly has a voting block. And also if you think about all the people who are just turning things on for 20 minutes and going about their day, you can appreciate Flo and which, listen, I don't condone it, but that is how some people vote, especially in the, you know, below the line.

[Sean Fennessy]

No question people will vote for things that they don't watch. This is one of the single hardest categories for me to pick and if you told me that the results were 51% to 49%, I would not be surprised. I wrote down flow yesterday and I'm going with the Wild Robot today. So that's a. This will be a key distinction point between us. I think that the Wild Robot is also very strong. It has nominations for best score and for best sound. It's extremely unusual for an animated film to get a best sound nomination. So that's other branches outside of the animation group that are going for this movie. The other thing to consider, Chris Sanders is a four time nominee. He's a legend in the animation community. His films are now being made into live action movies like 20 Years Later. He's really, really well liked. Flo is fantastic. They're both great. They both for me were Both like top 25 movies of the year pretty easily. I've devoted a lot of time to both. Both filmmakers on the show. I really like them both. Even in the should win answer. It's kind of a coin flip for me. I like them both. It's a very good category this year. This isn't my favorite Adam Elliott movie, the memoir of a snail director, but that's a good film. The Aardman, Wallace and Cromwell movies are always good. Inside out 2. Okay, it's pretty good. Obviously a huge box office success, but I'm going Wild Robot and I'm going to say should win Wild Robot.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I will go with Wild Robot Robot in should when? Also, even though I texted you that I don't like how the animals move in that movie, but otherwise, from a pure animation standpoint, but everything else is quite beautiful. I cried, you know, I'm a human being. Even though the wild robot is not, or really anyone else in the film.

[Sean Fennessy]

She evinces incredibly human qualities, though, like caretaking.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Sure.

[Sean Fennessy]

Something you're also thinking about every day. I think this isn't going to be indicative of anything else that's going to happen the rest of the night. But that international thing that you're talking about, if a film like this wins, to me, that will signal something bigger about the animation races in the future and maybe even this particular awards body. Because Miyazaki is Miyazaki. He'd already won before. He is an actual legend. He is in a conversation the last 30 years for the greatest filmmakers in the eyes of many people who've worked in the business. Gen Zel Baladas is like nobody ever heard of that person until 12 months ago, so. But this is a movie that did well at Cannes.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It won international feature at the end of the Spirits.

[Sean Fennessy]

It did. I think it's a really close race. Interesting that we're split. Okay, let's go to documentary Feature film. Do you want to read the nominations?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay, I'd love to. Black Box Diaries. No Other Land, Porcelain War. Soundtrack to a coup d'etat. Sugar Cane.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay, so you've just caught up with a lot of these films.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

Anything jump out to you about them?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Uplifting as always? No, it's a very dark collection of books. It's tough and they're all extremely important issues. But if you do them back to back, as I did, very heavy stuff. It was interesting to me that a majority of the films, four out of five are. They're not autobiography, but they are self filmed and kind of. They are, again, not quite first person, but the subjects are capturing a lot of the footage themselves and it is being told through the lens of their experience as opposed to. As an outside observer, I thought this.

[Sean Fennessy]

Was a very good observation.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And I think in some cases it's not even whether that works better than others. That's just like the style. And I think all four films are very upfront about that. But that becomes text in a couple of them in interesting ways. And in a couple, it just is the way that the footage was achieved. But I did think that was notable, especially when you always talk so much about music documentaries and art documentaries and everything, where the. The subject is much more involved now. And that just seems to be the way that documentaries are getting made.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think it's a way that you can authenticate the story so it does not Feel like an outside observer has parachuted into a situation that used to be something that was celebrated. I think about documentaries that you would stumble upon something in the world. I don't know, I think of like Harlan county, usa, the Barbara Coppel movie. You know, she was not from those coal mining towns, but she. She went and visited those spaces and effectively told those stories with a level of objectivity, but also a passion about the subject matter. These stories. Black Box Diaries is a story about sexual assault, directed by the woman who was assaulted.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

Turning her film into a kind of a. Almost like a whodunit, you know, like an exploration of.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right. Well, she's also. She's a journalist as well, so she is investigating and trying to. She is documenting and making a documentary as a documentarian who is also the subject.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes. Porcelain War is a film about Ukrainian artists who are subject to the toll of the war with Russia. No Other Land, of course, is about Israeli occupation in Gaza and the destruction of space in Gaza. Sugarcane, likewise, is about indigenous peoples who were disappeared in the face of this, like, Catholic mandatory schooling circumstance. And then soundtrack to a coup d'etat. Is this outside, Right. Kind of like more of an essayistic.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's like Adam Curtis.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. Idea focused, slice of history.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I will say I liked that movie very much, but it was billed as a Cold War thriller, which, respectfully, you can't say that to a John Lecrae like Stan. And then I sat home and I was like, oh, I see what you mean. But this is, you know, this is. It's not Tinker Tailor.

[Sean Fennessy]

No, I think maybe just very interesting. Sort of like the intersecting modes of power related to Lumumba's assassination. You certainly has in the text, that thing. But to me, it's more of a music film in many ways. Like the way the music is used or abused in the. In the way of, like, international power. Anyway, this is. This is for me personally, even though I agree with you that all these stories are very important. Just not my favorite collection of documentaries that we've seen. I think this branch is in a really interesting space right now. It's obviously, it seems to be actively working to sort of zag against what the popular consensus is around consumption around documentaries. It seems to be very mission oriented. And so no Other Land has probably the film that has made the most noise. Yes, it has won a lot of precursors. It is still. Does still not have US distribution, but people are still seeing it like, it is still being shown in movie theaters, but it doesn't have, like, A an actual company that has signed on to be its official distributor. It's also a movie that is going to be very divisive among people in the Academy. We saw the aftermath of Jonathan Glaser's speech at last year's Academy Awards.

[Amanda Dobbins]

We sure did.

[Sean Fennessy]

Where he spoke about this conflict and he angered a lot of Jewish members of the Academy. So I find this to be a tough category to predict.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right. You know, I think as Bobby pointed out when we first started talking about no Other Land, despite it being about the. The most hot button issue or one of like the most divisive within the academy and in the world at large, political conflicts in the world right now. It is, it is really.

[Sean Fennessy]

It.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, I guess it is political in that anything that has the words like isra, Gaza, Israel, Gaza, west bank, like, is political. But it is just a documentation of what is happening.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's a human story.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. And it is again, it is mostly filmed by one of the directors documenting what's happening. I think a lot of it was first on social media and now it's kind of like being pulled together in a narrative way. Which is, I think, another reason that you have these first person documentaries is because we're just all on our phones documenting things right now. So. I know what you mean. But to me it is different even than the Jonathan Glazer speech in the way that things are presented. It is very much like, here is what happened.

[Sean Fennessy]

Right. I am choosing it to win. As am I, somewhat reluctantly, because I don't know how divisive it will be. I know that it's a movie that a lot of people have heard of and that's essentially why I'm.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I know, I completely agree. And it has been picking up every award. And then you just wonder how many other movies people will watch.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, I. Let's not be surprised by a porcelain war upset.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I would not either one of the other reasons. And I mean this, you know, this is all so craven and gross and you're just like comparing like total tragedies year by year. But I'm like, well, Last year was 20 years in Mario poll, so are they gonna vote for like a different tragedy this year? Which is just like.

[Sean Fennessy]

But it is how people think, honestly.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I know, but that's just like. I hate myself for having that thought in my head.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes. It's very silly also to say what should win. But I would choose soundtrack to a coup d'etat just because I think formally it's a more interesting experiment in trying to Tell a historical story.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I liked. I. I mean, all of the issues are important, you know, so again, we're not voting for issues. I. I liked Black Box Diaries as a. You know, in many ways, it's like a. It's not Japanese, she said, but it is express, you know, investigating that. That legal system, that journalist, that media ecosystem, how, like, a rape case would be explored and covered in that. In that country. So I. I was like, this is interesting. I kept kind of watching it. And then the controversies around it in Japan are also kind of interesting. And again, I do not speak or read Japanese, so I was reading, like, translations. I have no idea whether I'm right or not. But the use of the very. There's some very galling, like, absolutely horrifying video camera footage that is used. And then who says that's allowed to be used? And where. And how. And how that's affected. Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

Is shorts.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes. Is. Was. Was fascinating. So I like. I enjoyed. Check out Black Box series.

[Sean Fennessy]

If you haven't seen it, I think it's on Paramount.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. Enjoy is like, not the word. It's very. It's very tough.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Check it out.

[Sean Fennessy]

All right. International feature film. This was a category that was considered settled for about three months. The nominees are I'm Still Here. The Girl with the Needle, Emilia Perez, the Seed of the Sacred Fig, and Flo, of course. Emilia Perez was by far the front runner. The most nominated film at the Academy Awards this year. The scandal that hit about five or six weeks ago has completely torpedoed its chance is in a lot of categories. That doesn't mean it's done here. I agree with you, Sean, but I'm not choosing it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You're gonna. You're gonna go with the Brazilians.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm gonna take. I'm still Here.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think that I. I mean, I think that you're right. Honestly, part of my. Again and again, I just. I'm really sorry to generalize with a country as historically, you know, rich and varied as Brazil. But, like, they like capybaras so much that I've. And that capybaras are native to Brazil. So I'm like, maybe Flo. And then here. I think you're right that I'm still here really could pull it out.

[Sean Fennessy]

I mean, it has a Best Actress nomination and a Best Picture nomination. So in the event that anybody who looks at the Emilia Paris story has an awareness of it, feels that it has become a nuclear circumstance, this feels like the next best place to go. Now. Flo is beloved. I think there's a lot of admiration for the Seed of the Sacred Fig, though it didn't perform as well as some people thought it might throughout this season. But I think the campaign's been strong. I think Fernanda Torres has campaigned well. You know, for me, I find that movie to be very traditional. It feels very much to me like a 1985 sort of academy Award nominee. It's not a bad film by any means, but it felt somewhat rote. And I know people are mad because there's a huge passion for that movie that I didn't like it that much, but I just didn't really connect with it and. But I know that I'm in the minority, at least among people who have checked it out.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I liked it as I was falling asleep last night. Very cool thought process. I realized that we forgot the ending of I'm Still Here for best ending in our alternative Academy Awards.

[Sean Fennessy]

I didn't love it well.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I just liked that it was Fernando Montenegro, you know?

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, sure.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That was cool.

[Sean Fennessy]

Connectivity with her mom and former best actress.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, I agree that the third act. I would like to know more about the third act. What? Everything that happened in the third act. I'm not sure why.

[Sean Fennessy]

Kind of yada, yada, like, she became a national hero. I was like, wait, sure.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And it, like, for indigenous rights and.

[Sean Fennessy]

All this hour and a half.

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I know. Though I have to say, like, their home in Rio looked fantastic.

[Sean Fennessy]

I was just talking with Justin Sales about this yesterday. The film had me the first 45 minutes. The family story, all the way up until the inciting incident, really, of their family's story was very compelling.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's seems cool if you could own a house a block from the, like, most famous beach in the world and just walk back and forth, like, nice life, I guess.

[Sean Fennessy]

Put it on your 2026 bucket list. Anyway, so you're choosing I'm still here as well?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I'm. I'm doing Amelia Press.

[Sean Fennessy]

Really?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think it's a. Hang on.

[Sean Fennessy]

Oh, interesting. Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think that. I mean, listen, like we just said, Carlos Gascon will be at the Oscars. Netflix is paying for it. Like, I think she's not going to win. I don't think it's going to win Best Picture. But in the same way that we were all, like, so befuddled by, like, why does everyone like this so much? You know, I think. I think people will be like, sure, in this category. Yeah, I liked it. I don't really care.

[Sean Fennessy]

Interesting. Did you end up watching the girl with the Needle.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I did last night. That was my last thing that I watched. Lol.

[Sean Fennessy]

What did you think of that?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, it's pretty. I mean, well made. Impressive. Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. Beautiful photography.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You know, me and carnies, so.

[Sean Fennessy]

Got it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's my only issue.

[Sean Fennessy]

Uh, okay, so that's. So we split on two out of three so far.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. Who do you think should win?

[Sean Fennessy]

Flo.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You think Flo?

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm gonna go with Seed of the Sacred Fig.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Which, you know, should literally be 40 minutes shorter than it is. Um, but I thought, especially in all of the family stuff and the setup and, like, the first hour rips, in my opinion.

[Sean Fennessy]

And I really. I struggled with this one. Another movie where I'm like, the story is more important than it is interesting to me personally.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, I just, you know, who doesn't like a Chekhov's gun, you know?

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. But, like, it's literally a gun. Like, in the first 20 minutes, I was like, okay, I know what this is going to be. You know, I think, obviously, because of the story of what Mohammad Rosalev had to go through to make that film, and he's been exiled now, and all of that is remarkable. You know, the same is true for the story that Walter Salas is telling in I'm Still Here. These are incredibly relevant.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I would agree with you that hours two and three meander.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And I have some questions about everyone's strategy in the ending, but we're not doing rewatchables right now. Like, where are they all going?

[Sean Fennessy]

You want to do, like, an all 22 tape breakdown of the ending of the season? Well, just like, spoil, don't spoil.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Why is that the strategy?

[Sean Fennessy]

If you haven't seen the Sea of the Sacred Fig, we'll probably never talk about it again on this show because I didn't love it that much, but whatever. Well, we've already split on two out of three, and we haven't even gotten to the shorts.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

I don't even know what to do with these. I. This. I. I think I said I only liked one. That's not entirely true. I liked a few more than one, but I. This is not my favorite crop of films. You have called to abolish the shorts from the telecast in the past.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Listen, that. I mean, that's true. I should say it with my whole chest. New award ceremony. It's a different thing. It's a new award.

[Sean Fennessy]

Short films do matter. They just don't really make a lot of sense in the context of this award show. Yeah. Which we're on the same page about. So let's.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And they. And the voters end up doing this. Like, the voters and I end up doing the same thing every time, which is just like speed watching all of them, if you even watch them at all, which I did. But you do wonder how many voters are going to go through all 15, even though they're made available on the platform. This is the other thing. They're hard to see. They're get. They're getting better. Many of them are available to rent on, like, Vimeo or YouTube now, though it's not clear to me whether that money is going to. I'm not really sure what that distribution is about.

[Sean Fennessy]

I mean, they show them in a select number of like 800 theaters every year. We live on the.

[Amanda Dobbins]

We all live on the Internet. People are watching this on the damn Internet. You know, put it on YouTube and put a rent button by it. Like, I just don't under.

[Sean Fennessy]

Honestly, it's a good. It's a good call.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

They should find a way to make them more.

[Amanda Dobbins]

If we're. If we're gonna do this, I think.

[Sean Fennessy]

They should probably get more aggressive with this at the shortlisting stage. Once the films are shortlisted, all of those movies should be made publicly available. There's a million reasons why that's not the case. Just like we can't get an OR to be streaming before the world, you know, like, not enough.

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I know.

[Sean Fennessy]

Seen it for this to have been a meaningful moment.

[Amanda Dobbins]

But, like, if we're going to do this and we're still going to have these at the Oscars under the guise of. It's important to honor emerging filmmakers and like the next generation, then make the shit available.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. Emerging filmmakers like Wes Anderson. Sure. Okay. Best Animated short. Why don't you read the nominees once you've finished sucking down that giant water bottle.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Hydration is important.

[Sean Fennessy]

I agree.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Beautiful men in the shadow of the cypress Magic candles wander to wonder and Yuck, exclamation point.

[Sean Fennessy]

I chose Yuck. I don't feel great about it. I don't. I only really clicked with one of these. And I tell you, it was not Beautiful Men. Okay. Which is about three men who go to Turkey to get a hair transplant, which of course is all the. All the, all the rage. Now shout out to Van Lathan, you know, who's had some amazing experiences with hair transplants.

[Amanda Dobbins]

But not in Turkey, right?

[Sean Fennessy]

Not in Turkey. I thought Yuck was very sweet and I thought it had a nice, like, animation flourish. The lips was, like, very memorable. It's also fairly short.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, these were all pretty short.

[Sean Fennessy]

They're, you know. In the shadow of the cypress is probably the heaviest of the five. Yes. But not the one that I clicked with the most. The one I liked the most was Wander to Wonder.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, I've picked that to win.

[Sean Fennessy]

You have? Okay. Interesting.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It won the BAFTA and the Annie.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. It could win. It's not. It doesn't really have like a strong message.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's true.

[Sean Fennessy]

And I tend to look for message movies in the short films.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay. I tend to look for precursors.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay, Fair enough.

[Amanda Dobbins]

But I liked Wander to Wonder.

[Sean Fennessy]

That was my favorite by far. That animation style, the tone. I enjoyed it. It felt like. It felt like an Aardman kind of film.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I liked Magic Candies.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, it was sweet.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, I liked it better than Yuck, which I thought was too sentimental.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. I don't really have a ton more to say about animated short, best documentary short. I have some things to say about this category. The nominees are Death by Numbers, I am Ready Warden, Incident, Instruments of a Beating Heart and the Only Girl in the Orchestra. Your thoughts?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I am going. I'm predicting. I am Ready, Warden, to win.

[Sean Fennessy]

I am as well.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It is available on Paramount in addition to being available on the Academy site. And I do think visibility is important. It is also a recognizable documentary, accessible documentary format as opposed to Incident, which I think should win, but I think will be difficult for most voters firing it up. I mean, it is difficult. It is absolutely. Incident uses police body cam footage and security cam footage to recreate and not to recreate, but to. To show and investigate the police. A police shooting of a civilian in Chicago in I believe 2018. And so you are, you are watching that happen over and over and over again from different angles. And it is horrifying and incredibly upsetting and obviously really important. But the first title card is just a heads up that much of the movie doesn't even have sound. So I think, you know, when we do these, we don't really think very highly of the voters, which is possibly unfair, but I do imagine that would be alienating to a lot of people turning on their portal to try to get through these as soon as possible.

[Sean Fennessy]

Looking at my phone, crowd won't connect with Incident as much.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Incident is also sponsored, purchased, whatever by the New Yorker, who they do this a couple times every year. And have they won yet?

[Sean Fennessy]

That's a very good question. I'm not sure the data on that, but theirs is often a more high minded and somewhat experimental, you know, Bill Morrison the director of this film is a brilliant documentarian. If the folks haven't seen Dawson City Frozen Time, his 2016 feature, it's a fascinating portrait of time lapsing and he's very admired in the community. But I would not say that incident, which is by far my favorite of the five, screams Oscar winner, even though it's an important issue. All of these films are about something important or powerful in their own way. If the Only girl in the orchestra won, I would not be surprised.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, it's on Netflix.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's on Netflix. Netflix tends to do very well in the shorts categories. It is also like I Am Ready Warden, a very recognizable portrait style short doc of a longtime member of the New York Philharmonic who plays double bass, who is a ward under Leonard Bernstein, and who is sort of a very retiring person, but is also very charismatic in her own way. And it's just like a nice, well made movie. And sometimes movies like that.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Made by her niece.

[Sean Fennessy]

Made by her niece, yes.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. Uses Beethoven 7th Very well. Just always glad to hear that. Last year there was a. What was the name of the short film about the instruments program in the public schools in Los Angeles?

[Sean Fennessy]

The Last Repair Shop.

[Amanda Dobbins]

The Last Repair Shop.

[Sean Fennessy]

Chris Bowers. Also a nominee this year.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Exactly. So you do wonder whether. And that was children.

[Sean Fennessy]

If they were all over it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, and there's another.

[Sean Fennessy]

Instruments of a Beating Heart is also in that category. If one of the instruments of a Beating Heart wins, maybe you and I should make a film about kids playing music. Could do well at the Academy Awards. I think I Am Ready Warden is a familiar kind of story about a person on death row, but told very differently. And the subject of the film, the man on death row, I would say comports himself differently in this experience than really what we've seen before. I think that's going to resonate with people. Thought it was an interesting movie. This is not a bad crew. Death by Numbers I thought was the most traditional. Though, of course, it's also about a very important incident. A young girl who survived a school shooting who then becomes an advocate in the proceedings of the trial of the school shooter who survived. Very rarely do school shooters actually survive that incident. You know, this is a heavy category.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

Best Live action short.

[Amanda Dobbins]

One of the nominees, Anuja. I'm Not a Robot. The Last Ranger. How are we saying alien or alien?

[Sean Fennessy]

Alien.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. And the man who Cannot Remain Silent.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. I don't feel good about this, Zag, but I'm doing alien.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You are?

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay. I think it should win. So that would be exciting. Well, listen, out of the category itself.

[Sean Fennessy]

I thought the man who Could Not Remain Silent was superior.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's the other one I found Alien to be incredibly stressful and affecting. And the, you know, the. The fake green grass, the camera going everywhere all the time.

[Sean Fennessy]

Manipulative to me.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, it is, but so is the subject that it is portraying, which are the ice. You wouldn't even call them raids, but the ICE tactic of arresting people who have come for their green visa, green card interview. And obviously that is incredibly relevant to what is happening all over this country right now in completely horrifying ways.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's why I think it will win. I think it will be a vote for empathy in this experience. The man who Could Not Remain Silent similarly is an international story and is a recreation of a 1993 massacre where Serbian paramilitary entered a. Was it a Croatian train and removed people and murdered them for not having their papers in order or whatever. But I thought the filmmaking was very good in that film and I'd like to see more from that director.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I would also be very happy if that one. It was very good.

[Sean Fennessy]

So what are you picking?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm going with Anuja.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Because that's the celebrity backed Netflix entrant.

[Sean Fennessy]

I didn't think this was very good.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I did not either, but that's. That's not what we're picking here.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's who I'm predicting.

[Sean Fennessy]

You're saying because Mindy Kaling is the executive producer of this film.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes. And it's available on Netflix and it's about a small child and access to education. Two important things. Again, the ideas are important. It's the execution that we quibble with.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. So Alien for me and Anuja for you. Your favorite category now, Original song.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay. Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

The nominees in Original song are El Male from Emilia Perez, the journey from the 6888, which you and I just heard for the first time moments ago. Like a Bird from Sing Sing, Mi Camino from Emilia Perez. Never Too Late from Elton John. Colon. Never too late.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm doing it. I'm going. Diane Warren.

[Sean Fennessy]

What?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Let's get it over with. Let's get it the fuck over with. Let's go.

[Sean Fennessy]

Wow.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, you have two Amelia Press, so some vote splitting Netflix is behind Diane Warren. Let's just like, you know, God bless them. We don't have to endure the performances this year. Let's just do it and be done. Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, definitely. Let's be. Let's do it and be done. I'm choosing El Mall. I think El Mall will win. Maybe not maybe. I love what you're about.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You don't know.

[Sean Fennessy]

You're bringing the great energy. Great stuff, like a bird should win. But even that is not my favorite song in the world. This category stinks.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Just get it.

[Sean Fennessy]

We should just junk it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I think that we should let Dina Simone from Opus win. We should give Nile Rogers an Oscar, and then. Does he already have one? Give him another.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, that's fine. Yeah.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And. And then we can junk it.

[Sean Fennessy]

Has Niall Rogers e. Got it. He probably doesn't have an Emmy, Right?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Let's see.

[Sean Fennessy]

No, Nile Rogers doesn't have an Oscar. Okay, maybe he doesn't have any of these awards. I assume he has a Grammy.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, you never know with them.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's very true. Uh, okay, well, I'm choosing El Mal.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay, you're probably right.

[Sean Fennessy]

I every indication. I think El Mall is a heavy favorite. So maybe this is a boring pick.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Does not Rogers really not even have a Grammy? Oh, Grammy Award. Hmm. With. But what is this? He's won these. Okay. He has an award. Oh, forget Lucky.

[Sean Fennessy]

Oh, of course. Naturally. All right, that makes sense.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay, that's fine.

[Sean Fennessy]

They waited a solid 35 years to give him a Grammy.

[Amanda Dobbins]

There you go.

[Sean Fennessy]

Anyhow, original score. Next category. You want to read the nominees?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Sure. Daniel Blumberg, the Brutalist. Vocal Volker Bertleman, Conclave. Camille and Clement Ducaul, Amelia Perez, John Powell and Stephen Schwartz. Wicked. Chris Bowers, the Wild Robot.

[Sean Fennessy]

Now I'm choosing Daniel Blumberg for the Brutalist.

[Amanda Dobbins]

As am I.

[Sean Fennessy]

Some energy coming out that, you know, maybe. Maybe Conclave has more of a chance here than we'd realized.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's a good score.

[Sean Fennessy]

It is a pretty good score. It's a pretty good score for a thriller.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, you know, it's fine. It's no. The Brutalist score.

[Sean Fennessy]

No. Is the Brutalist score too abstract? Too odd? That kind of ticking clock quality that it has for the common voter?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I don't really think so, because it still has those. Like, it has that hook. Like, literally, it has a hook that is used majestically throughout the film and that opening. So if they've only seen 20 minutes, then they got the gist.

[Sean Fennessy]

I don't really understand the Wicked nomination.

[Amanda Dobbins]

As I've said before, I don't understand how it's eligible. But Dune Part 2 score was not agreed. Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

Chris Bowers score for the Wild Robot is quite good. I don't fully understand why Maren Morris song from the Wild Robot didn't make the cut. But Chris Bowers did make the cut.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You would have to ask all of Diane Warren's friends.

[Sean Fennessy]

I mean, that's a factor.

[Amanda Dobbins]

For sure.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's a factor. All right, well, we can just move on. I hope Daniel Bloomberg wins.

[Amanda Dobbins]

So do I.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's one of my favorite fantastics for many years. And I think it will be. I think it will be remembered.

[Bill Simmons]

This episode is brought to you by Lincoln. There's something buzzy in the air. Spring is coming, the mood is shifting and new journeys are beginning. Say goodbye to the winter blues and experience the revitalizing qualities of driving a Lincoln. Everything about a Lincoln is designed to invigorate our senses. And the Lincoln Spring sales event, it's happening right now. Step outside and visit your local lincoln retailer or lincoln.com to find some seriously mood enhancing offers on current and past Lincoln models. Learn [e-mail] this episode is brought to you by Lifelock.

[Sean Fennessy]

During tax season, your personal info travels to a lot of places. Between payroll, your tax consultant and the IRS. If your W2 gets exposed, that's just.

[Amanda Dobbins]

The ticket for identity thieves.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's why Lifelock monitors millions of data points every second. If your identity is stolen, they'll fix it, guaranteed or your money back.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Don't let identity thieves take you for a ride. Save up to 40% your first year.

[Sean Fennessy]

Visit lifelock.com podcast terms apply. Best Sound now this category obviously a few years ago was collapsed. It was previously best sound editing and best sound mixing. Let me see if I can remember this correctly. Sound editing is more like for bullets and car crashes. And sound mixing is usually more for like underwater experiences and things like that. So sort of like creating a net more natural world experience like that. Just like that. Very good. They're together now.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's great.

[Sean Fennessy]

Just so happen to have two musicals in this category. The nominees are a complete Unknown, Dune Part 2, Emilia Perez, Wicked and the Wild Robot. I guess you could make the case that there are three musicals if you include a complete unknown in that list. And yet I'm selecting Dune Part 2. As am I. I also think Dune Part 2 should win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm going with a complete unknown to win.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Because they had all those live performances and I don't know. I don't know. We like it. And my house.

[Sean Fennessy]

Are you confusing the quality of the performances with how good they are mixed?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I'm just enjoying the whole thing. It was like going to a Bob Dylan concert. I didn't get to do go to one of those. I wasn't around so thanks every offended.

[Sean Fennessy]

When I start questions with are you confused? By.

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, that's. I'm used to it. But I do think Dune Part 2 will win because it's won almost every precursor except for the Cinema Audio Society Award, which went to a complete unknown.

[Sean Fennessy]

And yet you're not choosing it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm not.

[Sean Fennessy]

But you know, that's a very small bias.

[Amanda Dobbins]

As a member of the Cinema Audio Society, I'm just. I'm pleased to say that we had the right. We had the right take.

[Sean Fennessy]

That would be a good name for this show, the Cinema Audio Society. Before we went on YouTube.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm sure they have it trademarked Best Visual Effects.

[Sean Fennessy]

We're really plowing through the below the line categories right now. Now this one is relevant because it is the only category in which you have not seen a film.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes, I forgot to watch Alien Romulus.

[Sean Fennessy]

So read the nominees.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Alien Romulus, Better man, Dune Part 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Wicked.

[Sean Fennessy]

I've once again chosen Dune Part two.

[Amanda Dobbins]

As have I. But there could be a spoiler.

[Sean Fennessy]

Do you think it could be Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes? Yes, I think so too. The Planet of the Apes films have never won in this category. So when I went to go see the film, when I screened it at Disney, they, before the film showed me a 10 minute compilation of the mocap performances that the actors were doing, then put a side by side of what the apes looked like in an effort to show the extraordinary lengths that they went to to build these worlds. It's very impressive. My big issue with that film is really the script. I just don't think the story of that film is very strong. I think it's maybe not quite big enough a hit.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Interesting.

[Sean Fennessy]

So sometimes when a movie like this rises above, it's usually a big, big blockbuster. And this was sort of a middle tier blockbuster, whereas Dune Part two was above it in that respect. Plus Dune Part two obviously has a Best Picture nomination.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It has a wider breadth.

[Sean Fennessy]

It has legacy in this category as well because it won for Dune Part 1.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Some years ago when I went to see Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, I briefly fell asleep. So I think it's very good what they do. It's very convincing. But it's very good what they do. I agree, very good what they do with the effects. But this was a boring one.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, those are not real monkeys. Just to confirm. So Alien Romulus is a fascinating nomination here. It's the movie's only nomination. It's a movie that you know, Chris and I did an episode about the film when it came out in August. We both liked it a pretty good deal. As a blockbuster, I thought it was really entertaining. We're pretty picky about our Alien movies. I think the aliens.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. You guys were open to it.

[Sean Fennessy]

We were open to it, yeah. The alien stuff in the movie, the xenomorph stuff, is very good. The Ian Holm decision. The decision to CGI recreate Ian Holm and his, you know, a version of his. Not his character, but a version of his character from the original Alien film was much maligned. It was one of the big things that I didn't like about the movie. Chris didn't like it about the movie. If you hear feedback about this movie, this comes up pretty quickly. So it's surprising to me that it got loved from this branch in the first place. I don't think it has any chance of winning. I would like to see more Fede Alvarez Alien movies, though, and I think he's gonna make another one.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, that's great news.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay, let's go to the next category, Production Design. Here you see the production designer and the set decorator get recognized in this category. So the nominees are Judy Becker and Patricia Cuccia for the Brutalist. Susie Davies and Cynthia Slater for Conclave. Patrice Vermette and Shane Vue for Dune Part 2. Craig Lathrop and Beatrice Brenton Narova for Nosferatu, and Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandalis for Wicked. You want me to tell me what you're choosing?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I am choosing Wicked.

[Sean Fennessy]

I am as well. Can I tell you something about this?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

Production design. Innocent in the film Wicked.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

I actually think the production design is very good in this movie. It's the lighting that is the problem.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

And so if this film were lit differently, for example, not backlit for the majority of the film so as to seem as though sun rays are beaming through on our characters, this world would have been more interestingly rendered.

[Amanda Dobbins]

What about the color choices? Where are you?

[Sean Fennessy]

That's not the production designer's job.

[Amanda Dobbins]

All right. They're working with the palette given to them.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think they built a. A very credible world that could have been not credible. Did it look like with the wizard of Oz? No. Did that annoy me? Yes. But actually, I think their job was quite different.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think everybody in this list did a great job with what they were given.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's a good collection of nominees. I would agree with you, obviously. I have a ton of admiration for what the Brutalists accomplished.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Incredibly small budget and also the basic complication. I'm not even complication. The contradiction of the movie is that you are building a whole world about a building and the construction of a building that you do not have the budget or the means to build.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And they do an incredible job representing absolutely all of it. I do think that the weird AI Snafu probably did not help them.

[Sean Fennessy]

Got in the sauce a little bit.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Not really fair to Judy Becker, in my opinion.

[Sean Fennessy]

I agree.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Because it was a contractor and she did an amazing job. That's what I would pick to win.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think all these are good. I have should win as Dune Park 2 because I think they're operating from a place of complete and total imagination with what's on the page there and trying to render some of these things extraordinary. Now they have more advantages, this crew, because they have a huge budget relative to some of these other movies. Nosferatu is no slouch in this category. The fact that it overperformed so hard in the below the line categories I think is real admiration for it. I'd be very curious to see the voting totals in this category. Me too.

[Amanda Dobbins]

The Conclave is beautifully done. Both obviously, the staging for all of your Renaissance paintings, but also just the Vatican rooms. The weird hotel quality of all of those rooms is so texturally specific and evocative. Really, really well done.

[Sean Fennessy]

Even Lawrence confronting Adeyemi in his room in that room. And you're like, that is definitely what those rooms look like.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Exactly.

[Sean Fennessy]

You believe the space so thoroughly. And you know, they made the Sistine Chapel in that movie. It's pretty crazy. Okay. A cool category, the Oscars. What do you know? Wicked's probably gonna win. My least favorite of the five. Costume design. Who are the nominees?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Ariane Phillips, a complete unknown. Lisi Crystal Conclave. Janti Yates and Dave Crossman. Gladiator 2. Lyndon. How are we saying Muir? Nosferatu. Paul Tazewell, Wicked.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think Wicked's gonna win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I do as well.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think this is actually one of the lockiest of the.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I agree. And you know what categories I think they should win? Oh, liked those popular dresses.

[Sean Fennessy]

How generous.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Great job.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, I. It's okay. I should win as Nosferatu for me.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

All those bodices.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, they're good.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, they're very good. All those cloaks that Count Orlok is rocking.

[Amanda Dobbins]

But are you like, is that who should win for the achievement or is that just how you would like to dress?

[Sean Fennessy]

I haven't broken out Count Orlok voice on you yet, but that's that's coming. Not today. Not today. This is. Is this the only Gladiator 2 nomination? Can't recall. I think it is. It's kind of a weird one.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, all those tunics. Sandals.

[Sean Fennessy]

I was gonna say togas. They Togas.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm trying to remember. I mean, I guess some people are wearing togas.

[Sean Fennessy]

Roman, not Greek. Is Greek toga.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, I. I do think the Greeks started with the toga. Let's just Google toga right now. You know, this is the kind of content toga, a distinctive garment of ancient Rome. No, I'm sorry. I was wrong about the Greeks.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay. So they were wearing togas. Yeah. And various sandals and some other stuff.

[Sean Fennessy]

Breastplates.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Sure. And all the little crowns and such.

[Sean Fennessy]

All the crowns, yeah. Sure. What'd you think of those twins?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Seems like they had the stuff, you know, they were ready to rule.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. Shades of Kamala. Okay, let's go to makeup and hairstyling. The nominees are a different man. Emilia Perez Nosferatu, the Substance, and Wicked.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think the substance will win.

[Sean Fennessy]

I do too.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Wicked and the Substance have kind of split the guild ones.

[Sean Fennessy]

I don't really see it with Wicked in this particular. Just because of Elphaba's green skin.

[Amanda Dobbins]

She's quite green.

[Sean Fennessy]

Sure. That was the accomplishment relative to the substance, which is this orgiastic explosion of makeup effects.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's pretty central to the plot if you get the wrong green, you know. Okay, listen, I also think that the substance should win.

[Sean Fennessy]

So how many times have you watched Wicked?

[Amanda Dobbins]

One time.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. You seem to showing some affection for it here.

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I just. I'm honoring what I saw and what was there.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, honor the makeup, honor the film.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It was green. It was quite green.

[Sean Fennessy]

You think Wicked should win?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No Substance.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. We're aligned on that. We've been aligned on a lot of these. Some of these are snoozy. We did the interesting ones at first. Okay, let's get less snoozy. Film editing.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

I don't know what's going on here.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I don't either.

[Sean Fennessy]

I don't know if I'm taking a chance by doing this or not. We talked about how this was one category in a potential quartet of potential wins for Sean Baker.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

The nominees.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Oh, you're gonna read them? Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

Are Anora, the Brutalist Conclave, Emilia Perez, and Wicked.

[Amanda Dobbins]

If Sean Baker wins this, I just. I think we know where the rest of the night is going.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes. I think there's not a high likelihood that the Brutalist wins, but if the Brutalist wins, my antenna goes straight to the roof.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Sure.

[Sean Fennessy]

Because there's not a ton of evidence that it's gonna happen.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

But I know that there are people who have admiration. Despite the film's length, the Brutalist has wildly underperformed the Guilds. But again, similar to the kind of flow versus the wild robot thing, where I'm like, what's really in the sauce of the Academy right now? Who is, like, the dominant. Who are the dominant blocks?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right.

[Sean Fennessy]

I still haven't fully figured that out yet. I don't think it's going to be a big night for the Brutalists at all. Spoiler alert. But I'm keeping my eye on that. To me, it is ultimately between Conclave and Anora, which is what I think we all think Best Picture comes down to. Right.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's so crazy. Yeah, I think so. What a weird.

[Sean Fennessy]

How did we get here?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

So who do you have winning this?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I have Conclave.

[Sean Fennessy]

I do, too.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think I feel good about it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I don't either. And like I said, if Sean Baker's up there, you know, we. I think we know how the rest of the night's gonna go. I think you're right about the Brutalist. I also think the Brutalist should win because I think everyone who's whining about the length is confusing the task of what an editor does. And it's not to just trim. It's not what I love to do as an editor of writing. It's about pacing, and it's actually bringing that, like, absolutely sprawling, sort of like, maniacal vision into some sort of focus and pace, and you can follow what's going on. And that movie moves. It is however many hours, but it moves.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, it's so funny you say that because I have Brutalist should win in a couple of categories where it might feel like a reach, but I picked Anora should win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, that's nice.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'll tell you why.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Also, a long movie that moves.

[Sean Fennessy]

A long movie that moves, I think slows down a little bit too much. For me, that's a story choice. The same way that the Brutalist kind of makes story choices that I think people don't love. I just think cutting comedy is an underrated skill. And the second act of the movie is a diamond. It's like a perfect. And look at the way, in particular, when they enter Yvonne's home or Yvonne's parents home and the way that Annie is being sort of, like, attacked by these men or restrained by these men. There are a lot of cuts, a lot of different angles and energy that is super duper high. You know, obviously Baker, conceptualizing, writing, shooting, doing everything on this movie, you might take this away from him a little bit. You might say, well, if you do everything yourself, then you.

[Amanda Dobbins]

But it's hard to get just right. I'm with you.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's hard to get just right. Some good nominees in this category. Do not know why Wicked is here.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You know, Bohemian Rhapsody won this category five years ago.

[Sean Fennessy]

So this is a very finished however many years. If I think legitimately. I think it's very similar to Best Picture in how it's. In terms of. It's like one film's at 60%, one film's at 35%, one film's at 10%.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And. And we should note that edit. Best Editing is historically it. It. It is often tied to Best Picture. It is sort of. I mean, even though that's like changing a little bit.

[Sean Fennessy]

But you see correspondence in terms of the. The winners having a Best Editing nomination.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Historically, it can be a sign. So that's why we're like scratching our heads about it.

[Sean Fennessy]

Another one that's a little tricky. Cinematography. Who are the nominees?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Laurel Crawley, The Brutalist. Greig Fraser. Dune Part 2. Paul Guillaume. Amelia Perez. Ed Lackman. Maria Jaron Blaschke. Nosferatu.

[Sean Fennessy]

Now, I mentioned to you that the ASC Awards threw us for a little bit of a loop over the weekend by giving their award to Ed Lackman. It's been a long time since a movie that did not have a Best Picture nomination won in this category. Yeah, doesn't usually happen. It did happen for Deakins. As I recall, for Blade Runner 2049, that wasn't a Best Picture nominee.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, but that was Deakins. It was Deakins and Ed. I mean, it is insane that Ed Lachman doesn't have an Oscar.

[Sean Fennessy]

Agree.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And so you could see that happening. But I don't know if he has the household name across the academy that Deakins does in terms of its time to overcome the fact that literally no one but you and me saw Maria.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, I thought it was interesting that he got this for another Pablo Lorraine movie that was less appreciated, but maybe just speaks to the strength of that body in his mind or in his body of work. So I chose Law Crawley for the Brutalist. As did I. I think Darren Blaschki should win for Nosferatu.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I probably.

[Sean Fennessy]

Pretty close. It's pretty close.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I probably do too.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think they're both. They both had hard jobs they both are working with very exacting filmmakers with very strong visions who. I say this with affection for both Robert Eggers and Brady Courbet are really up their own asses.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's. Somebody needs to take the microphone away from somebody. You just mentioned Brady, sir. Come on. Just.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, I think he has done actually a very smart thing for himself, of course. Developed a cult of personality and a Persona that is hard for filmmakers to do in 2025. Whether you like him or not is kind of immaterial. Yeah. Most of the enfant. Most of the great directors are on Fonter Reeves. Very few people are. Steven Spielberg, really. Oh, it seems like a nice man. It's like, go read an interview with Godard. It's like, that's. They're assholes. Yeah. Okay, so we're on the same page with Wal Crawley. We've matched on a lot of these.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

We're kind of going a little chalky.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I do also think that Ed Lachman, like, deserves an Oscar, so.

[Sean Fennessy]

Agreed.

[Amanda Dobbins]

If you want to put that for. Should win, like, you know.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. I mean, we can go through his entire.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Looked good.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. He probably. Let's see, what's the earliest one he should have won? Maybe Desperately seeking Susan in 1985. Yeah. That's how, you know, that's how far back his career goes. He. He shot the Lords of Flatbush in 1974. We're talking about a 50 year body of work. Okay. Next category is original screenplay. The nominees are Honora, the brutalist, a real pain. September 5th. The substance.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You gonna do it?

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm not gonna do it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm not gonna. I'm not gonna do it either.

[Sean Fennessy]

I really want to do it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I know. And you could like it. It could not be wrong. But you're not. You're not gonna do it. You're gonna go with Sean Baker for an aura.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm gonna go with Sean Baker for an aura, yes. I really wanted to go for a real pain.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. I mean, it's, it's. There, there are hints, there are clues. It's possible.

[Sean Fennessy]

There's a lot of clues. There's some precursor stuff. There's also the Jesse Eisenberg factor.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

He is a very well liked and accomplished actor who has worked with many people in Hollywood. He's worked in huge productions. He's worked in independent film. He's worked on television. He's worked in the theater. He's also just, if you've met him, just a nice, funny guy.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Just so lovely.

[Sean Fennessy]

And he's been Giving great speeches and people.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Did you see the. The bit where someone asked him about, like, his TikTok or all his social media stuff?

[Sean Fennessy]

No.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And he's like, I'm old and dumb, so I just do whatever. And the. And then says the name of the nice young woman at Searchlight who is in charge of the social media strategy. And he knows her name, and he's like, she's lovely. And she's just like, do this.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And so then I did it, and I was just like, well, Jesse Eisenberg, you're the best.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, I mean, he's great. He's run a great campaign.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Also relatable.

[Sean Fennessy]

I mean, he's one of us. Obviously, age wise, at least. Original screenplay historically has been the bastion of the cool.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

Anora is the kind of movie that usually wins just original screenplay and nothing else.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Exactly.

[Sean Fennessy]

So we're in a funky year where I think it's probably going to win, and I'm probably tipping my hand about how I feel like everything's gonna go on this night. But again, if it doesn't win much, like editing, the Conclave siren is gonna start wailing for, oh, oh.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Because something else gets original, and then Conclave gets adapted. Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

And Conclave gets adapted. And that means Conclave's package, so to speak, will be stronger.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Do you think. Let me ask you, if. If. Does it matter who else wins original screenplay if it's not Anora? Like, do you interpret a Real pain win differently than you would a substance win?

[Sean Fennessy]

I think so. I might have misspoken on the cinematography category. I think it's actually original screenplay is a category that very rarely wins without a Best Picture nomination. So a Real Pain not having a Best Picture nomination, which I predicted for months and months that it would. I wonder if this is one of the rare cases where after nominations, Jesse Eisenberg did a lot of good for his film in terms of advocating for it, even though it lost out on Best Picture. Like, he could have just packed up. He could have been like, I got screenplay. That's cool.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'll be there.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'll show up. I'll support Kieran, but I'm not going to do a lot. But he's done a lot. And I think a Real Pain not being a BP nominee, but winning shows that Anora is not strong.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's just. This is a gut.

[Amanda Dobbins]

What if this substance wins?

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm not gonna totally rule Anora out.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Because you think that's people just being like, well, you know what? I liked the substance and but both of both the Real Pain and the Substance have acting nominees already locked up. So it's. It would be less of a throw this film a bone and more of a. I'm not that psyched about an aura.

[Sean Fennessy]

Well, what that could tell you, and we're really in game theory territory here, is if they give original screenplay to the Substance.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

It could mean that Mikey Madison could still Best actress.

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I don't think so.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay, we'll get there very shortly. So we both have Anora.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

And should win. I wrote A Real Pain.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I wrote the film Anora.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay, great.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Adaptive, written by Sean Baker.

[Sean Fennessy]

Adapted screenplay. The Brutalist is a movie that I love. It at times feels like a person writing a novel in a screenplay. Sure. My favorite scene in the movie is obviously Van Buren and Lazlo Toth. Their exchange. But like everything that Lazlo Toth says in that scene, I'm like, no human has ever said these words, but Adrian.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Brody's so good that it doesn't matter. Yeah. And Guy Pearson, he tricks you.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. Adapted screenplay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

The nominees are a complete Unknown Conclave. Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys and Sing Sing.

[Sean Fennessy]

This is actually the most locked category of the night.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Conclave, yes. Yeah. It's one at every single awards thing.

[Sean Fennessy]

Peter Straughan, longtime screenwriter, admired. This book is okay, but At Best is insane.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, he's basically saddled with the weirdest, silliest ending to a very pulpy, fun story. And makes it work. And makes it work until the ending. I mean, the ending. You're still sort of like what I still feel. I don't care about everything else.

[Sean Fennessy]

We should talk about that when we talk about Best Picture.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

I have Conclave winning as well. I think Nickel Boy should win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

As do I.

[Sean Fennessy]

A major achievement. We've talked about why it's such an achievement on past episodes. Actor in a supporting role. The nominees are Yura Borisov for An Aura. Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown. Guy Pearce for the Brutalist. Jeremy Strong for the Apprentice.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Kieran Culkin.

[Sean Fennessy]

Kieran Culkin will win this award.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

He will give a seemingly tossed off, but maybe secretly privately constructed speech. He's very good at remembering his lines, so to speak. You know, he's good in this movie. He's my.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm pro.

[Sean Fennessy]

Kieran Culkin, least favorite of the nominees. He's my least favorite of the nominees.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

He's not bad. It's a very good character.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I. Well, he's tied for least favorite, in my opinion.

[Sean Fennessy]

So with Jeremy Strong.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

The succession boys. Is it just because you hate Roy Cohn or because you don't like what he did? Are you confused by?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I'm not confused by. I just like. I get it. And it's a very Jeremy Strong performance in a movie that I was sort of irritated by.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. I think Guy Pierce should win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

As do I. Oh, that's nice. He's incredible in that movie.

[Sean Fennessy]

Fantastic actress in a supporting role. The nominees are Monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown. Ariana Grande for Wicked. Felicity Jones for the Brutalist. Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. And Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Will win. Zoe Saldana. Oh, you're gonna zag.

[Sean Fennessy]

No. Okay. Will win. Zoe Saldana. Should win. Zoe Saldana. How about that?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Should win Ariana Grande. So there you go.

[Sean Fennessy]

You're really coming out strong for Wicked.

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, it's just. Listen, I can appreciate what is good and then say that the rest is not. But she was very good.

[Sean Fennessy]

Very good. I liked her performance as well. I talked about it when I talked about the film on the show. I also live with Glinda. So because my 3 year old would like nothing more than to be Glinda, then I have to honor her by saying, good job, Ariana Grande. Listen to her on wtf.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Ariana Grande.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yes. Which was. Okay. I gotta say, it is odd listening to Marc Maron do his. And again, tremendous love and respect for what Marc Maron does on his show. I listen to so many hours of it. Those two talking is just weird to me. It's just. Imagine that conversation. They weren't bad together, but it's just trying in my mind, each other. Feels wrong.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. Actor in a leading role. Why don't you read the nominees?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Adrien Brody, the Brutalist. Timothee Chalamet, A Complete unknown. Colman Domingo. Sing, sing. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave, Sebastian Stan, the Apprentice. Before you say anything, this is the one where I hadn't made up my mind.

[Sean Fennessy]

Interesting.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And I think right now, just in my head, I know what I'm going to do. But. But I wanted to say that I've made my decision in my head.

[Sean Fennessy]

Do you want to say yours before I say mine?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Sure. I. I think it's going to be Adrien Brody.

[Sean Fennessy]

I chose Adrien Brody as well.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. Could be a surprise again.

[Sean Fennessy]

I said this on the show this week. 18 of the last 20 Best Actor winners at SAG went on to win best actor at the Academy Awards. That is a very powerful Statistic, very powerful. It traverses a long period of evolution within the Academy, even though SAG doesn't always match up. Adrien Brody had been bulldozing his way towards this and was a heavy, heavy, heavy favorite until Sunday night. It certainly wouldn't stun me if Timothee Chalamet won, but it would surprise me. I think he's a little too young for what the Academy likes to do. The only real precedent for this, of course, is Adrien Brody himself when he won in 2002 for the Pianist. And I said, my should win is Adrien Brody as well.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Mine as well.

[Sean Fennessy]

As much as I'm an admirer of Timothee Chalamet, Adrien Brody, the movie is a film. In that movie, he is incredible. It is one of the great screen performances in recent history. So we're aligned. Why were you agonizing?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Because I do think that Timothee Chalamet at SAG Awards, even though it doesn't affect the voting, it, you know, kind of reflects where that voting body, which is a very large voting body, is headed. I do think a complete unknown has some. Some, like, deep Academy like, support. Just like a very traditional movie, a really likable performance, you know, and the. And the Glenn Close, Olivia Colman, and then Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh. Stuff, like, lives on in my head. Right. Like, can change.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'll give you an even more pertinent example, I think, which is we saw this last year with Killers of the Flower Moon versus Poor Things and how Emma Stone triumphed at the Oscars. A lot of people will say bigger star tends to win at the Academy Awards in these races.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right.

[Sean Fennessy]

Timothee Chalamet is the bigger star.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's true.

[Sean Fennessy]

Brody's been in the business longer. But Timothee Chalamet is a much bigger star than he is. Adrien Brody is on movies that are, like, straight to vod. That's no disrespect to him.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Just saying everybody has to make a living.

[Sean Fennessy]

Absolutely. Look at me now.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Just.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm prostrating myself before people making predictions like an asshole. So I'm not better than him by any means.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Do you think Olivia Colman was a bigger star than Glenn Close?

[Sean Fennessy]

I don't.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, she was in more people's homes.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think she was a more. Weirdly, we didn't quite realize it at the time, but was actually more of a draw. You know what I'm saying when I say that?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

And I think particularly that was a reflection of the increasingly international group Too right.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And I think Adrien Brody could benefit from that a bit.

[Sean Fennessy]

He could. That's kind of where my head's at with the brutalist one. Are there a lot of Europeans that are coming gonna come out for this movie in the voting?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think. I think so.

[Sean Fennessy]

That kind of needs to happen. Right. And it needs to happen in another category, which we'll talk about momentarily. Let's talk about actress in a leading role. The nominees are Cynthia Erivo for Wicked. Carla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez. Mikey Madison for Honora. Demi Moore for the Substance, and Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here. One item of note. This collection of nominees have never faced off against each other through all the precursors. Fernanda Torres not present at the baftas. There was, of course, the Golden Globes split, and not all these names were represented at sag. So what does that mean?

[Amanda Dobbins]

It means Demi Moore, it's a sweep.

[Sean Fennessy]

Well, it wouldn't be a sweep because Mikey won at bafta.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's right. You're right. Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

That was the one. Another one that threw me for a loop. Much like Timmy at sag, Mikey Madison at bafta, winning there while. Which was a very odd. Particularly because. And, God, my brain is like an absolute tool right now. It's just flow. I can feel the gears clicking together. Anor didn't win anything else at bafta. Didn't win Best Picture. Didn't win Best Director. Didn't win Best Screenplay. Didn't win any of that stuff, which is stuff. It had been winning everywhere else at the American guilds. And yet Mikey Madison won at bafta. So what the hell was that?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Once again, BAFTA can be confusing, especially in the performer categories. The system is intricate.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. I also chose Demi Moore.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think Mikey Madison should win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I do as well. She was wonderful.

[Sean Fennessy]

Is there any world where Fernanda Torres wins? I mean, sure, I think there is.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes. Again, the. The Brazilian voters are powerful and passionate, and we see them.

[Sean Fennessy]

Just them.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And we see them and respect them.

[Sean Fennessy]

We do.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, I don't want to find out what happened in a dark alley. I just would love to go to that house in Rio. Someone let me know if it's still there.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay. This is just your Fast Five bias showing, I think. Isn't that the one in Rio?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, but also, like, you don't want to go to Rio.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, sure.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, you don't like the beach. That's the other thing.

[Sean Fennessy]

I don't like the beach.

[Amanda Dobbins]

There is one part in the. In I'm still here, where Fernando Torres's Character just talks about like, she needs to go to the beach or else it's not a real vacation. And I was like, truth.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, she sees me, and that's really the cortex of that film. That's really what it's about. At the end of the day, I. I'm excited to see this play out. Demi Moore's giving great speeches.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think you're overthinking it a tiny bit.

[Sean Fennessy]

I picked.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I know, but, like, even in this, I think you're, like, doing a little Get Out's going to win over Shape of Water, but, you know, that's. That's. That's okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. Thank you for bringing up the Shape of Water. I was thinking about it recently, because Best Original Screenplay, the Shape of Water memorably did not win. Get out won that year.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

But then it went on to win Best Director and Best Picture. So what is. Does that have. Does that tell us anything about Anora this year with any of the other categories? Like, is there a meaningful place like that where it could miss? I'm sort of vamping a bit before we get to Best Director and Best Picture, which, of course are still actually quite difficult to predict at this stage.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think I'm trying to think the get out. The get out when I sound so Southern when I say get out.

[Sean Fennessy]

The get out when.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Get out when you sound very Texans. Really horrifying was your very classic. We love Jordan Peele. We like this. We would like this. It was a cool award. Right. And also great, important film.

[Sean Fennessy]

And that was particularly interesting because it was up against the Shape of Water and Three Billboards, which were number one and two in the race throughout the entire season.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right.

[Sean Fennessy]

And it still triumphed over both of those movies. Is Anora not as cool as Jordan Peele?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I think it's cool. I mean, you're right that it would normally be the cool win plus, and now it's also possibly just gonna get others. That's why I was kind of like, maybe the substance has a shot here just in terms of that cool quality. But I do think that they're gonna give Demi Moore an Oscar, so they don't need to throw at another bone.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, the ingenue era has slowly been dying in Best Actress category. It's something that happened quite frequently in the 2010s and has not been happening nearly as much. So that's part of the reason why I was swayed to pick Demi Moore. Okay, directing. Who are the nominees?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Shawn Baker. Anora Brady Courbet, the brutalist James Mangold, a complete unknown. Jacques Odiarn, Emilia Perez, Coralie Farja, the substance.

[Sean Fennessy]

I've chosen Sean Baker.

[Amanda Dobbins]

As have I.

[Sean Fennessy]

The DGA precedent is extremely strong.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Agree.

[Sean Fennessy]

I can't. It's hard for me to fight against it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

It does feel like a year with a directing best picture split.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Oh, interesting.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm not saying that that's what I'm doing.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay. But you feel like one of those years.

[Sean Fennessy]

Doesn't it feel like one of those. Doesn't this feel like a La La Land, moonlight kind of situation?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Not really.

[Sean Fennessy]

What?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I. I mean, I. Sure. Anything, you know, anything could happen. Craziest. Sure. Yeah. But I also, I, again, I think that we're. We're all. We're trying to make sense of our experience. Right. And so it's been a very confusing year for you.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And you haven't know. Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

And what do you mean?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, you've been doing it for the whole six months.

[Sean Fennessy]

Oh, that's.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You know, I logged on in January. So you're just, like, you're exhausted and you don't know which way's up, and you want to, like, you want to put some meaning around this roller coaster that you've been on.

[Sean Fennessy]

You got me.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And I. Meanwhile, I think that surprises could happen. I'm not 100% confident, but it does seem like things have shifted into place.

[Sean Fennessy]

A little bit, even after.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I could be wrong. I could be wrong.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. I think if. If Edward Berger were here, and he is, of course, not nominated in this category.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

I would really be tantalized by the possibilities. If Brody doesn't win, does that mean it's more likely or less likely if Brody.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. If Brady doesn't win?

[Sean Fennessy]

No, if Adrien Brody.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Adrien Brody doesn't win. I was like, are we on the wrong first name basis with Mr. Corbet at this point?

[Sean Fennessy]

If Adrien Brody doesn't win, is it more likely or less likely that Brady Courbet wins Best Director with the idea that you want to give one to the Brutalist?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I don't know if the Brutalist has that kind of appreciation. Respectfully. I think. I don't. I think that it has the people who absolutely love it and are. Are voting for it. But I. I don't know if everyone's sitting there trying to, like, disperse, you know, trophies fairly, the way we are at the Alternative Academy. I think they're either. If Adrien Brody doesn't win in Best Actor, it's because there is not a brutalist hive in the Academy. To correlate to the hive all around us.

[Sean Fennessy]

The boys didn't bleed through.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. The boys didn't make it in.

[Sean Fennessy]

Okay.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I could be wrong.

[Sean Fennessy]

I've chosen Corlee Farja for should win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, that's lovely. I've chosen Sean Baker from Anora.

[Sean Fennessy]

Corly Farja, you know, first of all, just recognize the work of women.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. You're so right. Thank you.

[Sean Fennessy]

This is a woman with a strong.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Voice, our leading voice.

[Sean Fennessy]

She was confronted by. How dare you. She was confused by.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's you and Justin Baldoni.

[Sean Fennessy]

Stop. It's not nice. He wants to lift women up right in their work. That's what he says.

[Amanda Dobbins]

He had a whole podcast about it.

[Sean Fennessy]

He did have a whole podcast about it. I also have a whole podcast about it. Have you noticed Corly Farsha did exactly what she wanted to do. She was confronted by a studio who were like, don't do this. We don't want to put this movie out. And she was like, no, this is what it is. This is what I want to do. It's a crazy idea. I'm a super French lady, and I need to. I need my vision realized. She should be rewarded for it. I think that's what this award is all about. On the flip side, pretty much everybody in this category is good. They're good in different ways. Jacques Odillard's movie is an absolute nightmare. But Jacques Odiard is a good director. This is just not. This is his least good film.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Sure.

[Sean Fennessy]

James ManGold, speaking of WTF. Some of the best 90 minutes you'll ever get. If you like listening to guys explain why and how they made a movie and what they were thinking about when they made a movie. Just check out James Mangold talking. I think Mark asked three questions in.

[Amanda Dobbins]

78 minutes, which is, you know, that's an incredible power dynamic at work.

[Sean Fennessy]

It really is. And it was great. I really enjoyed it. I'm a huge Mangold fan.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I enjoyed that film very much.

[Sean Fennessy]

Um, shall we go to the final category?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Let's do it. Have I taken, like, the suspense that you're trying to build out of this?

[Sean Fennessy]

No, there's no suspense. All right. Best picture.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yes.

[Sean Fennessy]

The nominees in this category are Anora the Brutalist, A Complete Unknown Conclave, Dune Part two, Emilia Perez. I'm Still Here. Nickel Boys, the Substance and Wicked. What are you choosing?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm choosing an aura.

[Sean Fennessy]

I am as well.

[Amanda Dobbins]

We got to go with what we know.

[Sean Fennessy]

I am not feeling confident.

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, I. It could go several different ways, and that is fun.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think it can only go one other way.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You think it can only go Conclave?

[Sean Fennessy]

I do.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think this is now fully a two horse race. I think it's very hard to look at BAFTA and SAG ensemble and say that doesn't matter. It does matter.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

It matters a lot.

[Amanda Dobbins]

They're going to intro the next ceremony with that. It's like right before Kristen Bell comes out, it's like, and I'm an actor. It'll just be the SAG Awards. It does matter. You're giving out really great taglines these days, along with your segues.

[Sean Fennessy]

I've just become a very confident broadcaster. I don't know what else to say. I feel very at ease with you in this format. Speaking of these items.

[Amanda Dobbins]

So you identify as a broadcaster?

[Sean Fennessy]

Absolutely. Always have. What do you think this is?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, you are correct. I don't know if broadcaster is where I would. Is what I would think of.

[Sean Fennessy]

I must. Six foot tall, white man with brown hair.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

I am a broadcaster.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Congratulations. You did it.

[Sean Fennessy]

I mean, I aspired to something and I achieved it. I actually never aspired to it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm just a nice mom who wants to go to the Rosewood corner.

[Sean Fennessy]

You are not nice and barely a mom. It's only been three years.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Two. Not one, but two.

[Sean Fennessy]

You have two children, but three years.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Sean Fennessy]

But a mother of two.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I'm a mother of two, sort of.

[Sean Fennessy]

Sometimes nice mom of two.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Nice to that.

[Sean Fennessy]

Who wants to go to Kona? That's how you identify. Put that in your. In your Instagram bio.

[Amanda Dobbins]

In my Instagram bio. A nice mom of two who wants to Kona. Should I tag them?

[Sean Fennessy]

You think that'll help with the inviteseasonsosewood? That might work. I think Anora's gonna win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I do as well.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think Conclave could win.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I do as well.

[Sean Fennessy]

I think if the Brutalist wins, I'm gonna.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You're gonna lose.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm gonna have a lot of fun.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's gonna be a funny episode. It's gonna be real fun. You're gonna see really a goofy boy. Okay. I think the Brutalist should win. I think the Brutalist.

[Amanda Dobbins]

You've made that quite clear.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's just a crazy achievement.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's my take. You think Anor should win?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. Also a crazy achievement that we've sort of been taking for granted.

[Sean Fennessy]

I disagree. I think it's been widely celebrated by the industry for the last five months. I think it won the Palme d'or at the Cannes Film Festival. I think Sean Baker has Been crowned. I have no problem with any of these things, but I don't think we're taking it for granted.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's really good. I'm not even sure if it's my favorite Sean Baker movie, honestly.

[Amanda Dobbins]

What is your favorite, Sean?

[Sean Fennessy]

Probably Red Rocket. I think that's the funniest and the smartest and the most laden with subtextual ideas about our world. It's just not. It doesn't make you feel quite as good as Anora does at times.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right.

[Sean Fennessy]

You know, Anora has all this, like, big uplift in the first act.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I just. I mean, I. I love Red Rocket. I. Simon Rex forever. Have you ever read. He did, like, a whole series of interviews promoting Red Rocket, and there was one that was just about how he. He recommend. It was a strategist recommends thing, and he recommended those, like toe spreaders. Do you know what those are?

[Sean Fennessy]

No.

[Amanda Dobbins]

There's like, little gel things that you put between your feet to spread your toes. And he talks about how he thinks that's really important for grounding yourself. And I think about that a lot. So shout out to him.

[Sean Fennessy]

Just a nice mom of two.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I think that Enora has as many of the ideas as. As his films, but then also manages to achieve both that kind of classic Hollywood cinema, like magic, and also is a very modern movie all at once. And just like, the number of things that it achieves, like the very light touch, is magical to me and hard to do.

[Sean Fennessy]

No denying that it would be a very cool and very interesting best picture winner to talk about in the context of history and also in what it means right now for movies. This is a pretty small collection of movies, though, just in terms of how many people have engaged with these movies, what the kind of culture around them is.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's true.

[Sean Fennessy]

Dune Part 2 is obviously a very big film. To a lesser extent, Wicked, still very popular. And then is the next biggest film behind that, a complete unknown.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And the substantial, probably box office wise. I mean, you can't underestimate the Conclave. Peacock. Run.

[Sean Fennessy]

Actually, you're right. Conclave, I think all in made $100 million, which is really good.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And then everyone I know is watching it at home and being like, huh? Huh? Conclave.

[Sean Fennessy]

Conclave wins. You say what?

[Amanda Dobbins]

It never gets old.

[Sean Fennessy]

It's a great bet.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Do you think my mom's watched Conclave? Do you remember this Christmas dinner?

[Sean Fennessy]

I do.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And my mom was like, I've read the book, so why do I need to watch the movie? Which is just the most? My mom was.

[Sean Fennessy]

It That I lean and not seen it. So you shushed her so that she wouldn't spoil it?

[Amanda Dobbins]

No, that was at. That was when she. That was the last visit. It was like, sigh was like two weeks old. I hadn't been able to see a movie, and my mom was like, I don't know how they're gonna adapt this.

[Sean Fennessy]

Oh, you hadn't seen it?

[Amanda Dobbins]

I hadn't seen it. And Chris and I had to be like, do not spoil the twist of conclave to me.

[Sean Fennessy]

Oh. And she said she wasn't going to.

[Amanda Dobbins]

And then at Christmas, she was like, I haven't seen it. Why would I see it? I read the book. I don't need to see the movie. And you and I were just like in my home at Christmas dinner, having dedicated our lives to this. And I was like, cool. Thanks, mom.

[Sean Fennessy]

Not a listener of the pod.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I will say sure. You know, I guess I don't have to say sure.

[Sean Fennessy]

That will be your response to the Conclave's victory at the 97th Academy Awards. Okay, very good. I will say.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I mean, it makes sense. It was. It was a strange year. And in a way, we, I guess, were like, wishful thinking it in a different way. When the, like, ensemble, like vaguely like recognizably like Oscar type movie about important European subjects, quote unquote, but with a commercial twist, directed by a very well respected international filmmaker, starring all your favorite guys, wins, plus Isabella Rossellini. You know, it makes sense. Maybe. And maybe we spent the last six months, you know, whining for nothing. Okay, that's what I think. What will you say?

[Sean Fennessy]

You'll just have to tune in Sunday night to find out.

[Amanda Dobbins]

That's great work.

[Sean Fennessy]

Thank you.

[Amanda Dobbins]

What kind of drink are you gonna have during the. The live show?

[Sean Fennessy]

Well, I've been on a gin kick for the last year or so.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Sean, welcome.

[Sean Fennessy]

But if I have gin and then podcasts could be dicey situation.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

Gin makes me a little ornery.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Sure.

[Sean Fennessy]

In a nice. In an amusing way. But I'm not sure that that's what I want to bring. So my gut tells me. Old fashioned.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

Rye. Old fashioned.

[Amanda Dobbins]

If we're programming liquor to correspond to mood, I should probably have a margarita.

[Sean Fennessy]

Because you're a huge Emilia Perez fan.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. And also because, you know, it's a representation of Mexico.

[Sean Fennessy]

That's what I'm saying.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Exactly. Is accurate much? Yeah, fully. Will you make the margarita for me?

[Sean Fennessy]

I haven't made a margarita in some time.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, you make a good margarita. And I don't. I don't really.

[Sean Fennessy]

I just stole my wife's recipe.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right. I mean, Eileen makes all the.

[Sean Fennessy]

She knows how to make good cocktails. I. I can. I can study and work on it.

[Amanda Dobbins]

I don't know if that's what I want. It does feel like more of an afternoon drink for me as well then.

[Sean Fennessy]

It does.

[Amanda Dobbins]

It's. You know.

[Sean Fennessy]

It does. Not me. I just. A giant tall glass of brown liquor at 2pm I could have like a.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Campari soda live on YouTub.

[Sean Fennessy]

That would be very elegant, you know. Yeah. You're just an elegant lady. Thank you so much, mom of two. Yeah. Great job today.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Great job.

[Sean Fennessy]

Feel good about this.

[Amanda Dobbins]

In the end, we didn't vary that much.

[Sean Fennessy]

I went pretty chalky, I think, because I'm afraid.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

I didn't take a lot of.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Well, it's good to be honest.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah. I think it's going to come back to bite me. I think I fucked up the shorts for sure.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Okay.

[Sean Fennessy]

Usually animated feature. I'm not. I'm really confused about. Even though I don't think there's a wrong answer between the two.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Right.

[Sean Fennessy]

Best picture of Conclave wins can be fucking weird. It's gonna be fucking weird.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah. But you know, and in some ways it's just. It's a green book year. But that's. I mean. And that's rude to Conclave.

[Sean Fennessy]

Yeah, it's just. It just. It will feel like an off year. Yeah, it will feel like an off year. I agree with you. Okay. Any closing thoughts?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Love the Oscars. I'm excited.

[Sean Fennessy]

I'm looking forward to the show. Conan O'Brien, of course, hosting. They've already announced three and a half hours clips.

[Amanda Dobbins]

They were like. They didn't say specifically. I don't know what your like DVR calendar, you know, guide will say, but they were like, we're gonna try to bring it in by three and a half. We know everyone wants three. What can we do?

[Sean Fennessy]

So will there be any movies that are in the Irishman over 10 situation? Like as the brutalist most likely to be hit by that?

[Amanda Dobbins]

Probably. Though we predicted a couple. I don't think we predicted a complete unknown win. And it has 1, 2, 3, 4. Yeah. So 0 for 8.

[Sean Fennessy]

That would be bad.

[Amanda Dobbins]

Yeah, it'd be tough.

[Sean Fennessy]

You're right.

[Amanda Dobbins]

They all worked really hard. But Monica Barbaro won the heart of Andrew Garfield at least for one night only. So who's the real winner?

[Sean Fennessy]

Mike King stands astride his kingdom once more. Thanks so much to Andrew the Man. Thanks to Jack Sanders as well. Thanks. Or producer Bobby Wagner for his work on today's episode. Reminder live on YouTube. This person. Very excited to be with you. 2:30pm 5:30 Eastern before the Academy Awards. And then we will be coming to you as quickly as we can after the telecast on Sunday night here on the Big Picture. Listen on Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch us here. Be nice in the comments. Amanda reads all of them. See you then.