The Big Picture – “Our Final 2026 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win, and Who Should Win”

Podcast: The Big Picture (The Ringer)
Hosts: Sean Fennessey (A) & Amanda Dobbins (B)
Episode Date: March 12, 2026

Episode Theme & Overview

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins sit down to deliver a complete, category-by-category breakdown of their final predictions for the 98th Academy Awards. They debate “who will win” and “who should win” in each of the Oscars’ 24 categories, unpack the tensions between Oscar “precedent” and “vibes,” discuss the state of Oscar campaigning, and dive deep into the strengths, weaknesses, and narratives surrounding 2026’s key films. Highlight moments of the season—like the possible historic sweep by One Battle After Another, the cultural impact of Sinners, close races, and personal favorites—are discussed with humor, heartbreak, and encyclopedic film knowledge.

Episode Structure & Key Sections

1. Pre-Oscar Hype, Disclaimers & Special Announcements

• [00:16–03:11]
  • Sean running through busy week (Oscars prep, SXSW with Spielberg)
  • Amanda: “I just made my final decision and wrote it into the doc right now.” [00:33]
  • Humorous riffing on Sean’s candid photo with Spielberg.
  • Quick plug for their Instagram live on Oscars night and immediate Netflix post-show.

2. Oscars Telecast Expectations

• [09:32–18:34]
  • Hosts are bullish: “Do you think this will be a good show?”
    Amanda: “Yes.” [09:43]
  • Conan O'Brien returns as host, which both praise as "the perfect vibe."
    • Amanda: “We are acolytes. Conan, fans of Conan. We grew up watching.” [09:43]
  • Live performances: only two songs will be performed (“Golden” from K Pop Demon Hunters and “I Lied to You” from Sinners), with excitement for the youth appeal of “Golden.”
  • Predictions on pacing, runtime (~4 hours), potential for higher ratings, and a crowded “In Memoriam” segment with big Hollywood icons.
  • Oscars/Sports crossover and tangent.

3. 2026 Oscars: Big Picture Analysis & Vibe vs Precedent

• [19:01–25:41]
  • Amanda and Sean admit this year is unusually difficult for predictions due to “the war between vibes and precedent.”
    • Sean: “...the war, so to speak, is between Vibes and Precedent and what the two trains colliding. And they are represented in some ways in two distinct films.” [21:37]
  • Expansion and diversification of the Academy makes past Oscar logic less reliable.
  • Bemoan how late-breaking narratives, unpredictable branches, and cultural discourse are making this an especially fraught (but exciting) year.
  • Amanda, child of two lawyers, sees precedent as an obstacle to fun.

4. Category-by-Category Oscar Predictions

Each category is introduced with nominees, followed by “Will Win” and “Should Win” picks. Timestamps and notable quotes are included for major switches, strong feelings, debates, and data points.

Animation, International, Documentary

• Animated Feature
  • [26:00–27:16]
  • Both: “Will win & should win: K Pop Demon Hunters.”
  • Amanda: “K Pop Demon Hunters, which is dynamite. It's a banger.” [26:34]
• International Feature
  • [27:52–29:21]
  • Both: “Will win: Sentimental Value, should win: The Secret Agent.”
  • Amanda on Sentimental Value: “…nominated for best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay. And with four acting nominations. People really like that movie.” [28:22]
• Documentary Feature
  • [31:41–32:28]
  • Both: “Will win: The Perfect Neighbor. Should win: The Alabama Solution.”
  • Amanda: “The Perfect Neighbor... most widely seen, the buzziest, distributed by Netflix...” [31:54]

Music: Original Score & Song

• Original Score
  • [33:53–34:10]
  • Both “Will win: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners”; differing should win (Amanda: Daniel La Patten for Marty Supreme).
  • Amanda: “The score branch is on notice.” [34:22]
• Original Song
  • [35:24–36:14]
  • Both: “Will win & should win: ‘Golden’ from K Pop Demon Hunters.”
  • Amanda: “That shit hits.” [35:48] (on “Golden”)
  • Sean: “I think this is one of the only super locks of the whole night.” [36:14]

Short Films

• Documentary Short
  • [37:36–42:04]
  • Both: “Will win: All the Empty Rooms.”
  • Amanda's “should win”: The Devil is Busy (“I was so moved by Tracy. And I'm like, I don't know if this film deserves an Oscar. Tracy deserves much more than an Oscar.” [41:11])
• Live Action Short
  • [43:31–46:45]
  • Both: “Will win: Two People Exchanging Saliva.”
  • Amanda: “I also have will win Two People Exchanging Saliva and should win the best first feature Oscar. Like, get out. Let's make a first feature.” [44:28]
• Animated Short
  • [47:39–50:09]
  • Both: “Will win & should win: Papillon.”
  • Sean: “It’s a beautifully hand painted movie... I think it’s very visually distinct.” [48:29–49:14]
  • Amanda: “Retirement Plan has won a lot of festival presentations. It's very funny and I liked it.” [49:14]

Crafts

• Costume Design
  • [50:09–51:44]
  • “Will win: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein; Should win: Miyako Belizzi, Marty Supreme.”
  • Both compliment the “classical” nature of Hawley’s win.
• Makeup & Hairstyling
  • [52:01–53:01]
  • "Will win: Frankenstein."
  • Sean: “Should win, The Ugly Stepsister.”
• Production Design
  • [53:41–55:28]
  • “Will win: Tamara Deverell, Frankenstein; Should win: Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme.”
  • Amanda: “Give Jack Fisk an Oscar!” [54:05]
• Sound
  • [57:25–58:20]
  • Both: “Will win: F1. Should win: Sinners / F1.”
• Visual Effects
  • [58:41–59:48]
  • Both: “Will win: Avatar, Fire and Ash.”
  • Amanda: “I prefer that we make things look real believably and with craft rather than creating new things. That's just my taste.” [59:02]

Key "Tipping Point" Categories

These crafts and above-the-line prizes are discussed as potential indicators for Best Picture:

• Editing
  • [59:49–62:08]
  • Both pick: “Will win & should win: Andy Jurgensen, One Battle After Another.”
  • Sean: “2 hour and 40 minute film. That feels like it's an hour and 40 minutes. The most memorable moment... is the car chase scene.” [60:43]
• Casting (First Year)
  • [62:08–67:59]
  • Both: “Will win: Francine Maisler, Sinners.”
  • Sean: “Francine Mazler is a legend... She is perhaps the most revered casting director in Hollywood.” [63:21]
• Cinematography
  • [67:59–70:00]
  • “Will win: Michael Bauman, One Battle After Another.”
  • Both discuss possibility Autumn Durald Arkhipov (Sinners) could win.
  • Sean: “A woman has never won this award. I mean, it's just crazy...” [69:01]

Screenplay & Directing

• Original Screenplay
  • [70:56–71:22]
  • “Will win: Sinners (Ryan Coogler).”
  • Sean’s “should win: Sentimental Value.”
• Adapted Screenplay
  • [72:22–72:41]
  • “Will win/should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another.”
  • Sean: “This will almost certainly be Paul Thomas Anderson's first Academy Award. He has been 0 for 11 up until this point.” [72:41]
• Director
  • [73:12–74:17]
  • “Will win/should win: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another.”
  • Amanda: “Paul Thomas Anderson has won and it is the it's time narrative comes to its conclusion... This is also... not like a Scorsese wedding for the Departed type situation.” [73:21]

Acting Categories

• Supporting Actor
  • [75:58–76:26]
  • “Will win: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another.”
  • “Should win: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value.” (Sean)
  • Wide open, but both thought Penn’s precursor dominance is decisive.
• Supporting Actress
  • [80:08–84:36]
  • Amanda: “Will win: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners.”
    • “I had a gut instinct, like, last week. I was like, I think it's going to be Wunmi Mosaku.” [81:19]
  • Sean: “Will win: Amy Madigan, Weapons.”
    • “I just kind of feel like she's going to win.” [81:47]
  • Both “should win: Inga Ipstadter Lilias, Sentimental Value”
• Lead Actress
  • [85:23–86:37]
  • Both pick “Will win: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet.”
  • Amanda: “She is astonishing. She really is. She's very good in this.” [86:01]
  • “Should win” split (Emma Stone for Sean, Rose Byrne for Amanda).
• Lead Actor
  • [87:01–97:23]
  • Both: “Will win: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners.”
  • Amanda: “Should win: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme.”
  • Prolonged, anxious analysis: SAG-vs-BAFTA bellwethers, MBJ’s likability, Leo’s lurking momentum, Wagner Moura’s international appeal.
  • Sean: “I have got, like, a really weird feeling that either Leo or Wagner Mora is going to win. Really weird.” [87:53]
  • Amanda: “The SAG moment was perfectly timed in the middle of voting... you could just feel people being like, excited for something new that they didn't expect and also excited for him.” [90:33]
  • Extended discussion of Timmy backlash and internet discourse (ballet comment, social media effects).

5. Best Picture & Big-Picture Synthesis

• [98:18–107:00]
  • Both: “Will win & should win: One Battle After Another.”
  • Sean reads list of astonishing precursor wins, emphasizing One Battle’s frontrunner dominance.
  • Amanda: “So now we talk about the vibe shift. And that. And. And I don't even think vibe shift is. Is totally fair because Sinners has also been in the running, I mean, since April, much, much longer...” [101:57]
  • Statistical deep-dive: What would a One Battle after Another sweep mean historically?
  • Even with stats, both admit “the race has never felt less stable.”
  • Sean: “This is the most dominant frontrunner in the history of the Academy Awards. If it doesn't win. And it might not win, it might not win.” [101:36]
  • Amanda: “That's symmetrical, right?... They obviously are friends... it makes sense that [PTA] would be in that league.” [106:09]

6. Wrap-up, Self-Doubt, and Excitement

• [107:00–108:42]
  • Both express giddy uncertainty: “Is it weird to feel confident and not confident at the same time? What do you call that?” (Sean)
  • 23 out of 24 picks matched; only split on Supporting Actress.
  • Both marvel at how much the year boiled down to “two movies.”
  • Amanda: “I love watching the Oscars… I'm ready.” [108:43]
  • Sean: “Thank you to everyone who's been listening and following along with us for this very long, protracted awards season.” [108:46]
  • Meta-commentary on the oddity and joy of the Oscars, and anticipation for the weekend.

Notable Quotes

• “It’s the war between vibes and precedent.” – Sean [21:37]
• “This is the most dominant frontrunner in the history of the Academy Awards. If it doesn't win... it might not win.” – Sean [101:36]
• “K Pop Demon Hunters... it’s dynamite. A banger.” – Amanda [26:34]
• “I think it's going to be Wunmi Mosaku...” – Amanda [81:19]
• “Paul Thomas Anderson has won and it is the... it's time narrative comes to its conclusion.” – Amanda [73:21]
• “This is like the category of my life. I've never had more of a weird feeling about a category.” – Sean [87:01]
• “Is it weird to feel confident and not confident at the same time?” – Sean [108:22]

Timestamps for Key Categories

• Animated Feature: [26:00]
• International Feature: [27:52]
• Documentary Feature: [31:41]
• Score: [33:53]
• Song: [35:24]
• Docs/Liv-Act/Anim Shorts: [37:36/43:31/47:39]
• Costume Design: [50:09]
• Makeup & Hair: [52:01]
• Production Design: [53:41]
• Sound: [57:25]
• Visual Effects: [58:41]
• Editing: [59:49]
• Casting: [62:08]
• Cinematography: [67:59]
• Original Screenplay: [70:56]
• Adapted Screenplay: [72:22]
• Director: [73:12]
• Supporting Actor: [75:58]
• Supporting Actress: [80:08]
• Lead Actress: [85:23]
• Lead Actor: [87:01]
• Best Picture: [98:18]

Final Takeaways

• Most major categories are seen as tight calls—especially Lead Actor, Supporting Actress, and the battle between One Battle After Another and Sinners for the night’s major prizes.
• The uncertainty and “vibe shift” narrative are stronger this year than usual, even with an apparent frontrunner.
• Sean and Amanda’s deep expertise and banter bring data, context, candor, and fandom to each pick.
• Listeners finish equipped with a clear sense of the possible, probable, and dream scenarios for every category—plus, a feeling of camaraderie in the face of a wild and unpredictable awards season.

(Note: All advertisement/intro/outro segments omitted per instruction. Quotes and timestamps provided in MM:SS format for key insights and memorable moments.)