The Big Picture — 2026 Oscar Nominations: Snubs, Surprises, and WTFs (Jan 22, 2026)

Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins

Overview

In this densely packed episode, Sean and Amanda dive into the freshly announced 2026 Oscar nominations. They dissect the "kooky," historic, and polarizing choices by the Academy, from record-setting nomination totals to surprising snubs and a few laugh-out-loud moments. The conversation dissects the top contenders, debates the surprises in major categories, and unpacks the evolving dynamics in Oscar campaigns, with plenty of sharp banter and reference to their own prediction struggles.

Tone: Energetic, candid, sometimes nerdily wonky, and peppered with self-deprecating humor.

The Morning After: First Impressions and Historic Moments

• Opening Takes (01:27–02:16)

  • Amanda: “It's way earlier than I'm used to wearing eyeshadow, but here we are.”
  • Both immediately highlight the historic sweep—Sinners lands 16 nominations, setting a new record, helped by the addition of the new Casting category.
  • Sean: “These nominations were a bit kooky and I gotta be honest, I like it.”

• Oscar Paradox (02:17–02:43)

  • Sean muses on the Academy's dual nature: “the best taste of any awards show… but also still does really weird stuff... sometimes just a little bit odd and doesn't feel right.”

Best Picture Race: The Top-Heavy Field and Notable Inclusions

• Key Stats (03:14–05:13)

  • Major films leading nominations:
    • Sinners (16), One Battle After Another (13), Frankenstein (9), Marty Supreme (9), Sentimental Value (8), Hamnet (8).
  • Amanda: “It's a top-heavy race... and then it was really just like throwing darts at a dartboard for the last four [nominees].”

• Ten Best Picture Nominees Announced (05:00–05:26)

  • Full list: Begonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams.
  • Most had been predicted by the hosts—Begonia was a late-breaking contender.

• Sentimental Value’s Strength (05:26–06:18)

  • Amanda: “Sentimental Value is very strong… stronger even than I predicted yesterday. The way I came to that conclusion was going through all the below-the-line categories...”
  • Sean confirms he'd seen its Best Picture potential since August 2025.

• Category and Individual Standouts (06:51–07:16)

  • Elle Fanning’s surprise supporting nomination called out as well-campaigned and “having a lot of fun at all the parties.”
  • Sean praises one of her key scenes: “that scene between her and Stellan Skarsgård... one of the best scenes of the year.”

The F1 "Dad Movie" Controversy & Oscar Tastes

• The F1 Inclusion Debate (07:16–10:15)

  • Amanda is blunt: “This is silly... I understand, we want to honor the box office, it's big and it’s very loud.”
  • Sean argues for the Academy’s craft-conscious voting base: “...many of whom work in ways that don't just include acting and writing and directing... have a tremendous amount of admiration for what [Kozinski] does there.”

• Best Picture Foreign Language Representation (10:36–11:03)

  • Sean notes it's historic to have two non-English-language films, but Neon’s push for more wasn’t overplaying: “They got two in... and four out of five in International Feature.”

• Major Snubs: No Other Choice & Wicked for Good (11:03–12:18)

  • No other choice blanked, despite an “acclaimed” campaign; possible reasons floated include release schedule and unsolved industry issues.
  • Wicked for Good “quietly delighting” the hosts by being shut out, especially given its lackluster quality compared to its predecessor.

The Big Snubs, Surprises, and “WTFs”

• Best Actress Drama (15:46–18:15)

  • Chase Infinity (One Battle After Another) snubbed for not being a “true lead” per voters, who gave the slot to Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue). Amanda: “She should not be here. ...It’s the wrong kind of Oscar nostalgia.”

• Weapons and Category Fraud (18:23–21:12)

  • Sean on campaigning: “It really matters how much you campaign, how present you are... Zack [Kreger] is also a really congenial, handsome, cool guy. ...But he's just not there.”
  • Amy Madigan’s supporting nom for Weapons cited as “her time lite”—good nostalgia at work.

• It Was Just an Accident's Near Miss (21:15–23:13)

  • The Palme d’Or-winner misses Best Picture, but Sean posits it could now win International Feature “as an Argo win after the [Ben] Affleck snub.”

• Best Director Notes (24:00–26:25)

  • Amanda brags five-for-five prediction, especially Josh Safdie’s inclusion over del Toro: “Congratulations, Josh Safdie. ...I believed.”
  • Joachim Trier’s recognition praised for montage-oriented style.

Categories in Focus: Score, Documentary, and Beyond

• Original Score Category Bone-Picking (26:56–29:28)

  • Daniel Lopatin (Marty Supreme) snubbed; Amanda (hilariously): “I wrote in all caps. Original score committee, you are on notice. Okay, you guys gotta have some meetings.”
  • Sean highlights electronic music’s struggle with voters—“this body is a classical group.”

• The Documentary Minefield (29:46–32:26)

  • This branch is un-“predictable.” Amanda: “...Whatever is going on with the documentary branch, comma, again.”
  • Cover Up (Laura Poitras) omission discussed. Netflix's Perfect Neighbor now likely the favorite due to visibility.
  • Sean: “I’ve kind of given up predicting it.”

Surprise Noms & Classic Oscar Moves

• Delroy Lindo Returns (32:29–34:15)

  • “Great news,” Sean gushes. Classic career-honoring nomination. Came “at the expense” of Paul Mescal, who will “be fine.”

• Supporting Categories (35:10–39:19)

  • Elle Fanning and Inga (Sentimental Value) make an impact in supporting actress.
  • Amy Madigan seen as supporting favorite; Teyana Taylor, another early favorite, is now an underdog.
  • Amanda concludes: “The field might be clearing for Amy Madigan.”

Weirdness, Innovations, and the State of the Oscars

• New Casting Category (13:48–14:18)

  • “It's a new category. We don't understand how they make the decisions. There's a Bake off element... where they do a presentation.” (Amanda)

• Song Category Mess (42:07–45:22)

  • Amanda and Sean agree it's badly broken; some pleasures (like “Golden”) and much nonsense.
  • Amanda: “I have been saying this for 10 years.” Sean: “They should delete it.”

• Makeup, Costumes, and "Avatar" as a Running Joke (47:00–49:22)

  • The Ugly Stepsister and Kokuho pop up as makeup surprises; Avatar: Fire and Ash randomly gets costume design nod.
  • In Amanda’s household, “Avatar” is a meme: “Nox just, like, whispers [‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’] in moments... So in that sense, the costumes... are very effective.”

Predictive Debates and The Chalamet Conundrum

• Best Actor Debate (49:46–53:47)

  • Five standout nominees: Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Wagner Moura.
  • Amanda’s gut says Wagner Moura (Secret Agent), but Chalamet’s “lizard brain” campaign machine makes her hedge.
  • Sean draws a Paul Newman comparison: “If you don't recognize the actor at the top of their game in their youth, you might have to wait 25 years.”

• Best Actress (54:59–56:06)

  • Jesse Buckley is steamrolling, limited suspense in the category.
  • Rose Byrne’s love for “If I Had Legs I'd Kick You” noted, but she’s a long shot.

Major Screenplay, Craft, and Technical Categories

• Adapted Screenplay: Expected sweep for PTA (One Battle After Another), both hosts predict zero surprises.
• Original Screenplay: Likely win for Ryan Coogler (Sinners), “where the real ones are,” and “the coolest award always.”
• Cinematography: Strong consensus that Autumn Gerald Arkhipov (Sinners) is leading, Sean also pulls for Jack Fisk in production design.
• Editing and Sound: F1's technical crafts show major support—Amanda: “We expected that.”
• Casting's Future: Amanda guesses “four years” before a nominee isn’t also a Best Picture nominee.

Meta-Oscar Talk: Posting, Campaigns, and the Value of Discourse

• Discourse Fatigue and Real Outcomes (64:19–65:10)
  • Sean: “Does the posting actually matter? ...But then can you actually win back the day by hard posting through it?”
  • Amanda: “Stop posting. This was good. And I'm voting for it...”
  • Their conclusion: posting is part of the Oscar-verse, but personal gut and strong campaigning still win out.

Key Quotes & Timestamps

• On the nominations’ overall mood:
  • “These nominations were a bit kooky and I gotta be honest, I like it.” (Amanda, 02:08)
• On Sinners’ record total:
  • “Sixteen nominations. The most ever. Casting was added this year, but still 15 still would have broken the record.” (Amanda, 01:48)
• On ‘F1’ as a nominee:
  • Amanda: “This is silly... It's fine. I understand, we want to honor the box office... but it's very loud.” (09:16)
  • Sean: “The Oscars is voted on by this big group of people, many of whom work in ways that don't just include acting and writing and directing. All the people who are voting for sound and editing and visual effects, these people vote on Best Picture...” (09:37)
• On campaigning realities:
  • “It really matters how much you campaign, how present you are...” (Sean, 18:59)
• On song nominations:
  • Amanda: “This category is fucking broken. They got it. They should probably just delete it.” (45:19)
• On Chalamet and Oscar history:
  • Sean: “If you don't recognize the actor at the top of their game in their youth, you might have to wait 25 years.” (53:33)
• On the power of online discourse:
  • Amanda: “Stop posting. This was good. And I'm voting for it...” (65:08)

Final Thoughts and Wrap-Up

• Both agree: A top-heavy Oscar year with “kooky” surprises, justified hype for certain frontrunners, and healthy debate between respecting box office, crafts, and new forms of representation.
• Sinners is seen as the likely most-awarded film, though One Battle After Another holds strong for Best Picture.
• The state of Oscar prediction: “Go with your gut and don’t overthink,” Sean resolves.
• Amanda closes, “Stop posting and start believing.”