The 2026 Oscar Nominations: Snubs, Surprises, and WTFs

Summary

The Big Picture — 2026 Oscar Nominations: Snubs, Surprises, and WTFs (Jan 22, 2026)

Hosts: Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins

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Overview

In this densely packed episode, Sean and Amanda dive into the freshly announced 2026 Oscar nominations. They dissect the "kooky," historic, and polarizing choices by the Academy, from record-setting nomination totals to surprising snubs and a few laugh-out-loud moments. The conversation dissects the top contenders, debates the surprises in major categories, and unpacks the evolving dynamics in Oscar campaigns, with plenty of sharp banter and reference to their own prediction struggles.

Tone: Energetic, candid, sometimes nerdily wonky, and peppered with self-deprecating humor.

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The Morning After: First Impressions and Historic Moments

• Opening Takes (01:27–02:16)

  • Amanda: “It's way earlier than I'm used to wearing eyeshadow, but here we are.”
  • Both immediately highlight the historic sweep—Sinners lands 16 nominations, setting a new record, helped by the addition of the new Casting category.
  • Sean: “These nominations were a bit kooky and I gotta be honest, I like it.”

• Oscar Paradox (02:17–02:43)

  • Sean muses on the Academy's dual nature: “the best taste of any awards show… but also still does really weird stuff... sometimes just a little bit odd and doesn't feel right.”

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Best Picture Race: The Top-Heavy Field and Notable Inclusions

• Key Stats (03:14–05:13)

  • Major films leading nominations:
    • Sinners (16), One Battle After Another (13), Frankenstein (9), Marty Supreme (9), Sentimental Value (8), Hamnet (8).
  • Amanda: “It's a top-heavy race... and then it was really just like throwing darts at a dartboard for the last four [nominees].”

• Ten Best Picture Nominees Announced (05:00–05:26)

  • Full list: Begonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams.
  • Most had been predicted by the hosts—Begonia was a late-breaking contender.

• Sentimental Value’s Strength (05:26–06:18)

  • Amanda: “Sentimental Value is very strong… stronger even than I predicted yesterday. The way I came to that conclusion was going through all the below-the-line categories...”
  • Sean confirms he'd seen its Best Picture potential since August 2025.

• Category and Individual Standouts (06:51–07:16)

  • Elle Fanning’s surprise supporting nomination called out as well-campaigned and “having a lot of fun at all the parties.”
  • Sean praises one of her key scenes: “that scene between her and Stellan Skarsgård... one of the best scenes of the year.”

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The F1 "Dad Movie" Controversy & Oscar Tastes

• The F1 Inclusion Debate (07:16–10:15)

  • Amanda is blunt: “This is silly... I understand, we want to honor the box office, it's big and it’s very loud.”
  • Sean argues for the Academy’s craft-conscious voting base: “...many of whom work in ways that don't just include acting and writing and directing... have a tremendous amount of admiration for what [Kozinski] does there.”

• Best Picture Foreign Language Representation (10:36–11:03)

  • Sean notes it's historic to have two non-English-language films, but Neon’s push for more wasn’t overplaying: “They got two in... and four out of five in International Feature.”

• Major Snubs: No Other Choice & Wicked for Good (11:03–12:18)

  • No other choice blanked, despite an “acclaimed” campaign; possible reasons floated include release schedule and unsolved industry issues.
  • Wicked for Good “quietly delighting” the hosts by being shut out, especially given its lackluster quality compared to its predecessor.

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The Big Snubs, Surprises, and “WTFs”

• Best Actress Drama (15:46–18:15)

  • Chase Infinity (One Battle After Another) snubbed for not being a “true lead” per voters, who gave the slot to Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue). Amanda: “She should not be here. ...It’s the wrong kind of Oscar nostalgia.”

• Weapons and Category Fraud (18:23–21:12)

  • Sean on campaigning: “It really matters how much you campaign, how present you are... Zack [Kreger] is also a really congenial, handsome, cool guy. ...But he's just not there.”
  • Amy Madigan’s supporting nom for Weapons cited as “her time lite”—good nostalgia at work.

• It Was Just an Accident's Near Miss (21:15–23:13)

  • The Palme d’Or-winner misses Best Picture, but Sean posits it could now win International Feature “as an Argo win after the [Ben] Affleck snub.”

• Best Director Notes (24:00–26:25)

  • Amanda brags five-for-five prediction, especially Josh Safdie’s inclusion over del Toro: “Congratulations, Josh Safdie. ...I believed.”
  • Joachim Trier’s recognition praised for montage-oriented style.

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Categories in Focus: Score, Documentary, and Beyond

• Original Score Category Bone-Picking (26:56–29:28)

  • Daniel Lopatin (Marty Supreme) snubbed; Amanda (hilariously): “I wrote in all caps. Original score committee, you are on notice. Okay, you guys gotta have some meetings.”
  • Sean highlights electronic music’s struggle with voters—“this body is a classical group.”

• The Documentary Minefield (29:46–32:26)

  • This branch is un-“predictable.” Amanda: “...Whatever is going on with the documentary branch, comma, again.”
  • Cover Up (Laura Poitras) omission discussed. Netflix's Perfect Neighbor now likely the favorite due to visibility.
  • Sean: “I’ve kind of given up predicting it.”

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Surprise Noms & Classic Oscar Moves

• Delroy Lindo Returns (32:29–34:15)

  • “Great news,” Sean gushes. Classic career-honoring nomination. Came “at the expense” of Paul Mescal, who will “be fine.”

• Supporting Categories (35:10–39:19)

  • Elle Fanning and Inga (Sentimental Value) make an impact in supporting actress.
  • Amy Madigan seen as supporting favorite; Teyana Taylor, another early favorite, is now an underdog.
  • Amanda concludes: “The field might be clearing for Amy Madigan.”

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Weirdness, Innovations, and the State of the Oscars

• New Casting Category (13:48–14:18)

  • “It's a new category. We don't understand how they make the decisions. There's a Bake off element... where they do a presentation.” (Amanda)

• Song Category Mess (42:07–45:22)

  • Amanda and Sean agree it's badly broken; some pleasures (like “Golden”) and much nonsense.
  • Amanda: “I have been saying this for 10 years.” Sean: “They should delete it.”

• Makeup, Costumes, and "Avatar" as a Running Joke (47:00–49:22)

  • The Ugly Stepsister and Kokuho pop up as makeup surprises; Avatar: Fire and Ash randomly gets costume design nod.
  • In Amanda’s household, “Avatar” is a meme: “Nox just, like, whispers [‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’] in moments... So in that sense, the costumes... are very effective.”

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Predictive Debates and The Chalamet Conundrum

• Best Actor Debate (49:46–53:47)

  • Five standout nominees: Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Wagner Moura.
  • Amanda’s gut says Wagner Moura (Secret Agent), but Chalamet’s “lizard brain” campaign machine makes her hedge.
  • Sean draws a Paul Newman comparison: “If you don't recognize the actor at the top of their game in their youth, you might have to wait 25 years.”

• Best Actress (54:59–56:06)

  • Jesse Buckley is steamrolling, limited suspense in the category.
  • Rose Byrne’s love for “If I Had Legs I'd Kick You” noted, but she’s a long shot.

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Major Screenplay, Craft, and Technical Categories

• Adapted Screenplay: Expected sweep for PTA (One Battle After Another), both hosts predict zero surprises.
• Original Screenplay: Likely win for Ryan Coogler (Sinners), “where the real ones are,” and “the coolest award always.”
• Cinematography: Strong consensus that Autumn Gerald Arkhipov (Sinners) is leading, Sean also pulls for Jack Fisk in production design.
• Editing and Sound: F1's technical crafts show major support—Amanda: “We expected that.”
• Casting's Future: Amanda guesses “four years” before a nominee isn’t also a Best Picture nominee.

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Meta-Oscar Talk: Posting, Campaigns, and the Value of Discourse

• Discourse Fatigue and Real Outcomes (64:19–65:10)
  • Sean: “Does the posting actually matter? ...But then can you actually win back the day by hard posting through it?”
  • Amanda: “Stop posting. This was good. And I'm voting for it...”
  • Their conclusion: posting is part of the Oscar-verse, but personal gut and strong campaigning still win out.

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Key Quotes & Timestamps

• On the nominations’ overall mood:
  • “These nominations were a bit kooky and I gotta be honest, I like it.” (Amanda, 02:08)
• On Sinners’ record total:
  • “Sixteen nominations. The most ever. Casting was added this year, but still 15 still would have broken the record.” (Amanda, 01:48)
• On ‘F1’ as a nominee:
  • Amanda: “This is silly... It's fine. I understand, we want to honor the box office... but it's very loud.” (09:16)
  • Sean: “The Oscars is voted on by this big group of people, many of whom work in ways that don't just include acting and writing and directing. All the people who are voting for sound and editing and visual effects, these people vote on Best Picture...” (09:37)
• On campaigning realities:
  • “It really matters how much you campaign, how present you are...” (Sean, 18:59)
• On song nominations:
  • Amanda: “This category is fucking broken. They got it. They should probably just delete it.” (45:19)
• On Chalamet and Oscar history:
  • Sean: “If you don't recognize the actor at the top of their game in their youth, you might have to wait 25 years.” (53:33)
• On the power of online discourse:
  • Amanda: “Stop posting. This was good. And I'm voting for it...” (65:08)

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Final Thoughts and Wrap-Up

• Both agree: A top-heavy Oscar year with “kooky” surprises, justified hype for certain frontrunners, and healthy debate between respecting box office, crafts, and new forms of representation.
• Sinners is seen as the likely most-awarded film, though One Battle After Another holds strong for Best Picture.
• The state of Oscar prediction: “Go with your gut and don’t overthink,” Sean resolves.
• Amanda closes, “Stop posting and start believing.”

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

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[A]

I'm Amanda Dodden.

[B]

And this is the Big Picture, a conversation show about the 2026 Academy Award nominations. It's 7:52am It's 2 hours and 22 minutes after we learned what's going to be nominated for the Academy Awards. How do you feel right now?

[A]

Good morning. It's way earlier than I'm used to wearing eyeshadow, but here we are.

[B]

You look great.

[A]

Ah, thanks so much. I feel. I feel good, honestly. These are both historic nominations in the sense that sinners got 16 nominations. The most ever casting was added this year, but still 15 still would have broken the record. It's Sinners wins big time or Sinner gets a lot of nominations.

[B]

Anyway, see about the win.

[A]

We'll get to that. Um, and then also these nominations were a bit kooky and I gotta be honest, I like it.

[B]

Yeah, I thought they were pretty. Pretty good collection.

[A]

They're like good, but a little.

[B]

Okay, pretty interesting. One of the things that popped in my mind this morning is that the Academy Awards continues to be an amazing paradox in that the body still continues to exhibit, I think ultimately the best taste of any awards show and any precursor historically, but also still does really weird stuff. And sometimes it's unpredictable and sometimes it's just a little bit odd and doesn't feel right. So you mentioned Center's 16 nominations this year. We have this kind of bundle, this heavy grouping of heavily nominated films which we talked about yesterday in our live predictions. Ig, I don't know what you want to call that 58 minute excursion into andor requests and andor puns. Yes. Yeah. So six films with A plus nominations. The next highest nominated film is of course One Battle after another with 13 nominations which hit everywhere except one critical place, which we will talk about in this conversation. Frankenstein got nine.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Marty supreme got nine, although missed in a couple of spots that I expected it to. Sentimental value got 8 and Hamnet also got 8. What do you make of this, like heavy grouping of films?

[A]

Well, as we discussed yesterday, it's a top heavy race and we've felt pretty certain about the top five or the top six since December. I guess things have been moving in and out a little bit. But December, that was very clear. And then it was really just like throwing darts at a dartboard for the last four. And it does feel like the last four nominations also have a bit of like a dartboard feel to them. You know, we discussed yesterday that maybe this is a year where the, the old school, just five nominations could have fit.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

And made things a bit more interesting. But on the other hand, I do think that that would have some below the line consequences and if you only had five, then maybe the Secret Agent wouldn't have like the, you know, the running that it has here. I don't know if Marty supreme would go in the same way. So it's. I, you know, it's weird again, I think that it is a little bit like your, you know, your funny aunt like picked some of the. No, but there are worse things.

[B]

Yeah, there are. We had speculated yesterday that there might be as many as five films with 10 plus nominations, maybe even 11 plus nominations. We overstated that. So it wasn't. Those films weren't as strong as we expected and there were a couple of categories that were incredibly difficult for us to predict. But let's, let's talk about best Picture in full because we've spent months and months power ranking films trying to figure out where this race was going to. Not to pat ourselves on the back too much, but I think we've had a pretty good handle on this race, especially in the last two months. And here are the nominees. Begonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle after Another. The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners and train dreams. Now, nine of those 10 films have effectively been in our race for the last few months. Yes, we added Seurat in the last best picture power rankings was Begonia.

[A]

In our last best picture, it was.

[B]

Okay because we've been holding Begonia because it's been getting recognized at Precursors. And Emma Stone, who was a nominated today, though not Jussie Plemons. But Begonia got in in some other places. It got in an original score. It got in an adapted screenplay.

[A]

We will discuss that.

[B]

So the big takeaways from this race, obviously those six films that you talked about were locked and loaded. Sentimental value was as strong as I basically thought the whole time.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

But even though it seemed a little weaker at SAG at the Globes at a couple of other places where we expected it to do better, were you surprised by that at all?

[A]

No, I believe that I said yesterday on the Instagram live, which can now be found via re. I don't know.

[B]

It lives.

[A]

Sure. It lives on.

[B]

Go to my real.

[A]

I think sentimental value is. Is very strong.

[B]

It's an Oscar movie and in fact.

[A]

It was stronger even than I predicted yesterday. But the, the way that I came to that conclusion was going through all the below the line categories and being like, no, actually I do think it's going to get each of these support these acting nominations. I do think it's going to get screenplay. I do think it's going to get that, this, that and the other. So no, not surprised you? I think in June, maybe July.

[B]

I saw the film in August and when I saw it in August, I said, I think this is gonna win best picture.

[A]

You texted me that we can find it. I think my text message is delete after six months. So I don't know whether I have the receipts that you do.

[B]

Yeah, it's very Ethan Hunt of you.

[A]

Never keep any archives.

[B]

Okay. Okay, understood. I can't say I'm doing the same thing, unfortunately. Please don't find my text messages Sentimental value very strong here. Perhaps a little surprisingly, you could tell when Lewis Pullman and Daniel Brooks came on to announce the nominations that in the first category for best supporting actress, when we saw the names Elle Fanning and Inga's daughter Lillia, we were like, okay.

[A]

And Elle Fanning was the first name Red.

[B]

It was so it set the tempo. Yeah.

[A]

You know what? She's been campaigning hard. She seems to be having a lot of fun at all the parties.

[B]

I have been saying. I think she's terrific in that movie and that scene between her and Stellan Skarsgard near the end of the film where they're sitting in a nook talking right before she makes a critical decision in the film, I think is one of the great scenes in that film and one of the best scenes of the year between the both of them. So I'm not surprised to see see that happen. Let's talk about F1.

[A]

Yeah. Well, you fucked up, buddy. That's on you.

[B]

The thing is, is that most people haven't seen the IG live. So pretty much every note I've been getting today is like, you've been on this. You nailed it. And then of course, as I always do at the last minute, after saying for five months that I really think F1 could get in at best picture, I blinked. I predicted weapons. My rationale was so sound, right? Which is that the Academy Awards has never nominated 3 non English language films for best picture ever. They love to get a couple of popcorn movies in. There's always a film that has a number of below the line or craft strength like your Avatar, the Way of Water style films. And then I didn't predict.

[A]

You got, you got halfway there. And we are really, we're going to go back in the archives. I believe it was October when you started predicting this. It could have been sooner, but to, to bring people behind the scenes. So the, the nominations are announced at like 5:30 PST here. So we both wake up and the communication doesn't immediately start.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

And you know like for the, you know, you're drinking your coffee, you're just kind of watching in silence. Or I was watching in silence.

[B]

I was hooting and hollering after every nomination, waking up my 4 year old.

[A]

Then you know, and like there are things I want to tell you but I'm like, save it for the podcast. Save it for the podcast. Save it for the podcast. And the NF1 broke the seal. That was when I just was like, lol. I'm sorry, this is you. You just. You screwed up.

[B]

Here's the thing. In 2026, I go with my gut. That's. I have to just go with my gut. You have to.

[A]

That for decades.

[B]

I have to stop overthinking this stuff. It's pathetic. Because I, I knew, I feel like I knew when I saw F1, I was like, this kind of has the shape of the mo of a movie that the Oscars, no matter what has happened in the last 10 years with the voting body, they love this shit. And Kozinski has proven himself to be a really, really Admired filmmaker. Somebody who like brings together craft groups so.

[A]

Well, you do not have to tell me.

[B]

We liked F1 a lot. We talked about it.

[A]

Okay. All right, listen, you. So you were correct and we've accept then you weren't and you don't. And you never had the strength of your convictions.

[B]

I thought it could have been. Could have been a good VP nomination, but I just.

[A]

I want to speak to F1 for a second, which I really admire the work of Joseph Kaczynski as documented on this podcast. This is silly like this. I'm sorry. This is a silly nomination. It's fine. I understand. We want to honor the box office. You know, it's big and it is very loud.

[B]

I think it's. It. It shows you something that makes to me, the Oscars different from all the other shows.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Which is that the Oscars is voted on by this big group of people, many of whom work in ways that don't just include acting and writing and directing. All the people who are voting for sound and editing and visual effects, these people vote on Best Picture. And so they have a tremendous amount of admiration for what he does there. Now, script wise, I don't think F1 is that strong.

[A]

Performance wise, it's okay.

[B]

It's not my favorite Brad Pitt performance, as we talked about, but that's not the only thing that goes into making movies. So I'm not going to like denigrate that movie. When you look at the history of best, because there have been so many, of course, best picture nominees that are like elegant dramas that are boring as shit. And F1 is not boring.

[A]

Excuse me.

[B]

What?

[A]

They are beautiful and they also. A lot of crap goes into that.

[B]

We can go through the most boring Best picture nominations at some point in the future, but to me, it's. It's. It's an interesting nomination that shows balance, basically. Now, do you think that Neon overplayed their hand in trying to get three or four non English language films into this race?

[A]

I mean, what is overplaying their hand? They got two in. They did get two and they got four out of five in international feature. It's a small company. I think sentimental value is incredibly strong. So I don't think you could say that they, you know, spread the wealth at the expense of one film.

[B]

Well, maybe no other choice, but sure.

[A]

Well, sure. Yeah. And that sucks.

[B]

No other choice.

[A]

Totally blanked. What a mistake. And. And you wonder whether they saw that coming because of like the release date schedules.

[B]

It's funny, I felt like that film got A lot of campaign support from Neon and. And Park Chan Wook and Lee Byun Hun were out a lot over the last couple of months. Yeah. And that has resulted in really good box office for that film. But for whatever reason, and maybe it has something to do with the WGA issue that Park Chan Wook had last year. I'm not sure what it is, but the Academy is not into his films. He's never been nominated. He's never been an international feature. That movie is one of the most acclaimed films of the year. It was my third favorite movie of 2025. And it's not here. It's like probably the second biggest complete snub today. There is another one that was completely snubbed, which is Wicked for Good. And I think we're probably quietly delighting a little bit in that because that movie stinks. And I didn't think Wicked one was very good. And it obviously did quite well in crafts at the Oscars last year. And this year it missed in some key categories. It missed in categories that it won last year. No Song nominations, no Ariana Grande, no Cynthia Erivo, nothing.

[A]

I'm relieved. We just. We don't have to pretend that we care about this or that. There's. There's like hidden merit in whatever, which there is. And it was rewarded for the merit last year.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And the new installment was not very good and we don't enjoy that musical.

[B]

Is there anything else happening here in Best Picture that surprised you or that you took note of? You know, obviously there was a moment where it felt like Seurat could get in right there. You know, obviously no other choices in here. Blue Moon didn't make it. And when I saw the original screenplay nomination for Blue Moon, I thought, oh, here we go. Maybe this could happen. Maybe that could be in a slot where, like the Secret Agent might go, for example, but the Secret Agent made it. The Secret Agent was. Is pretty strong here.

[A]

Never doubt Brazil.

[B]

Okay, got it. Understood.

[A]

Secret Agent and casting.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Was. And I guess that's when I knew that the Secret Agent was definitely going to make it into Best Picture.

[B]

Yeah, I still don't totally understand that. Because sentimental value. I mean, casting is not best cast. Right. It's casting. It's the act of casting. It's the work that goes into it.

[A]

Yes. As someone helpfully explained yesterday in the comments, Cast ink.

[B]

That being said, Sentimental Value has four best acting nominations, but did not get casting. That's kind of strange.

[A]

Including a legitimate discovery in Inga Ipsader, Lolis So I, you know, I. I think it's really cool that the Secret Agent got best cast, because it is. There's an ensemble quality to it, and there are a lot of smaller parts. Dona Sebastiana, you know, not nominated as supporting act actress, but the. That they found a lot of people.

[B]

Yeah, like, there's some. A lot of cleverness in it. Udo Kier, you know, the late Udo Kier having that small role as the German man living in Brazil. Like, there's obviously real invention. I'm not trying to denigate, denigrate the casting and Secret Agent, it's very good.

[A]

It's a new category. We don't understand how they. How they make the decisions. There's a Bake off element to it, apparently, where they do a presentation. But, you know, we only have these five nominations to glean from.

[B]

Do you think those Bake Offs should be made public? Yeah, I feel like they should just go on the YouTube channels.

[A]

Yeah, why not?

[B]

I don't feel like it would be a good thing. I'm not sure. I mean, just keeping things secret and away from the public, I guess. So it could be letting them. Letting the public decide what were the best Bake Offs and then measuring that against what gets nominated.

[A]

But no, no, no, no. That's two People's Choice Awards. You can, like. We can, you know, make the process available.

[B]

No, I don't mean that we would get a say, just that we could criticize them for choosing the wrong thing based on the quality of the Bake Off.

[A]

You know, we do that.

[B]

We do that. Anyway. Okay. Couple things about the studios and Best Picture. Netflix got two films. Just really nice to see. Train Dreams. That was another dream that I've been holding onto for 12 months since I saw the film. Today is, of course, the first day of the Sundance Film Festival. The last time it will be in Park City. I saw this movie one year ago. I was really moved by it. You saw it 11 months later. You were really moved by it.

[A]

It's a beautiful.

[B]

It's just a straight up good Best Picture nomination. It's a really good film made by really good people, and I'm really happy about that. Frankenstein, less so. Nevertheless, Focus has two nominations here. Warner Brothers has two nominations here for the first time in a very long time. Searchlight does not have a movie. Testament of Ann Lee also fully blanked. Unfortunately, that was a late addition to their Best Picture lineup after films like Rental Family and Springsteen. Deliver Me From Nowhere didn't click with audiences or voters.

[A]

End is this Thing on.

[B]

And is this thing on? Right. A movie that has been forgotten already.

[A]

So not by me.

[B]

You know, a fairly even balance. You don't love the idea of Netflix buying Warner Brothers and then having four Best Picture nominations, but I guess we'll talk about that more in the future.

[A]

We were also talking about a world in which Neon had four nominations.

[B]

Very true.

[A]

Not to both sides.

[B]

It.

[A]

But these things can still be a little random.

[B]

Yes. Nominations at Paramount Get.

[A]

Hmm.

[B]

00. Let's talk about snubs. Yeah, snubs. Of course. A word that is.

[A]

It's. This is. This is a place for our feelings. It's la.

[B]

It's a. It's a word that is lacking in describing what we mean. Yeah. I'll give you an example. The probably the most notable and most mocked race was in Best Actress, where Chase Infinity has been in that race for a very long time for her role in one battle after another. She didn't get in.

[A]

No.

[B]

Kate Hudson got in.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

For Song Sung Blue. A movie that I like.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

And a performance that I like, but I think I like Chase Infinity more. However, as I mentioned to you yesterday, Chase Infinity is not a leading performance in that movie. She's an ending performance. She's the most critical person at the end of the film. But she's in roughly one third of the film.

[A]

So as previously stated, I do not care about category fraud. This is all made up. The voters may have though everything that we're doing here.

[B]

Yeah, the voters may have.

[A]

Listen, with respect to you and your opinions. With respect to almost famous, to 10 things, not 10 things I hate about you. How to lose a guy in 10 days which has not aged well. Just.

[B]

Are you just gonna start naming all.

[A]

Of Kate Hudson's movies Fabletics?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Which. Do you know what Fabletics is?

[B]

Is that her line of workout wear?

[A]

Yes, it is.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

And Kate Hudson, who seems like a cool hang.

[B]

She does.

[A]

She should not be here. Like, I'm sorry, you guys.

[B]

I.

[A]

We're all wilding on this one. This is. It's the wrong kind of Oscar nostalgia, you know, of like Remember when everybody. It's like Charlize Theron and Monster Light. Light. You know.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

I would. No is what I say to this. I say no.

[B]

I. I would have prefer. I think I would have preferred honestly, Amanda Seyfried over Chase Infinity and Kate Hudson.

[A]

I would have excited accepted that.

[B]

That to me is a. A. A totalizing performance. That is a person at the middle of the movie who holds the movie together. That is A true best actress performance. But that movie obviously is not resonating.

[A]

I do think, you know, it's one battle after another. Got 13 nominations. Is the presumptive favorite. Is our favorite movie of the year. We've barely talked about it. This morning. We really stopped talking about an award season. And I do think that it's unfair to nominate everybody else in the cast and underrate Chase Infinity's performance. She stands up and goes toe to toe with all of these very big performances, and she is the emotional heart of it, along with Leonardo DiCaprio. I don't think that you can get the same Leo performance if you don't have Chase Infinity to bounce off of. So I think it's a bummer.

[B]

I think those are great points. I agree with you. She's nose to nose with Sean Penn and owning those scenes. So, yeah, that's a big one.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Very little weapons. Just one nomination for Weapons.

[A]

You know, you took your swing.

[B]

You like to just have a little fun.

[A]

You take your swing.

[B]

You know, I liked weapons. You know, you can hear me on this podcast talking about weapons.

[A]

Really fun movie. Children run like this with their hands back. I'll give you also how you sleep. I don't know if you've noticed or do they. They run out.

[B]

They run out like this. Imagine if I slept, like. Well, that would be weird. That would make it hard to share a bed with me. I. Among other. I was going to.

[A]

I was going to say no experience.

[B]

But I just want to say I knew this. I knew this in my gut. And one of the things that I knew.

[A]

Talk us through it. Talk us through it. Let's go.

[B]

I'll tell you what. When I was second guessing myself, when I was doing the weapons prediction, not just for this, but for original screenplay, where I also predicted it and it didn't get in, was Zack Kreger is making Resident Evil. He's not campaigning. They're not doing screenings. He's not out in the world doing interviews, talking about his movie because he's making a movie. He's the only filmmaker that is nominated that was up for anything whose film was recognized here who's in the middle of making a movie that matters, it really matters how much you campaign, how present you are for this sort of thing. Zack is also a really congenial, handsome, cool guy. He would do really well in these environments, but he's just not there. So I think that that hurt him a little bit. That being said, Weapons is a movie in which an old witch has the flesh Torn from her body. So like it's also not a classic Oscars film. Sure.

[A]

But the old witch performance was nominated and that is in part because Amy Madigan has been places and Amy Madigan is also very loved and it's a little. It's like a. It's her time light situation. And this, this is I feel like the good type type of Oscars nostalgia.

[B]

I agree.

[A]

So I accept that I would have been happy to see Weapons in original screenplay and I. I think in best picture over F1 for sure. I mean Weapons to me is a better pick than F1 for your box office.

[B]

Of course. I agree. And that. That was my wish casting is I ultimately just like Weapons a lot more. And if we're gonna be in. If it's gonna be a new academy, I'd like it to be a little bit more progressive in terms of what it's like kind of box office and crafts. Love is. But you can understand why F1, as I said, because it's. It's recognizing three other categories.

[A]

Yeah. When was the last time that you watched F1?

[B]

Oh, I rewatched it when I bought the 4K. I really enjoyed it. Okay, good. I mean, I agree with you, it's flawed. I'm not saying it's not flawed.

[A]

We turned it on while my husband was building the mini kitchen that Santa brought for Christmas. And it, you know, it was not maybe the intended setting in which to watch the movie, but that did expose some rickety elements of it.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Much like the mini kitchen if, you know, it's barely held together.

[B]

If you have an 85 inch OLED television and you're watching it in 4K, it holds its power. I would say if you're watching it like, you know, on a vcr, like it's. It's not really going to work. You have a VCR at home, right. You have F1 on V8, VHS. Okay.

[A]

I'm a collector.

[B]

Let's talk about. It was just an accident.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Because I guess that's the elephant in the room. It's something that I think we both were sort of feeling like could miss in Best Picture.

[A]

Yes. I predicted it, but I.

[B]

You were unsure.

[A]

I was like, we'll see. And that was a little bit of wish casting. I think that this is a shame. I think this is an excellent film that has been kind of just overlooked.

[B]

Yeah. It's unusual. It's the first Palme d' or winner to not be nominated for best picture since 2021 when Titan missed the movie that never Had a chance to be best picture, but it did get original screenplay and, of course, got an international feature. I'm fascinated by the international feature race because you've got Secret Agent and sentimental value in best picture. And yet I could still see a world in which it was just an accident. Wins that award in part because it's not in best picture. The sort of like Argo win after the Affleck best director snub kind of thing. That feels like a possibility as an opportunity to get Jafar Panahi on stage just to talk about what's happening in the world and his perspective and his. His experience as an Iranian dissident. So it's sad. And yet screenplay is. That's a good nomination for a film like this.

[A]

It is.

[B]

And if this film hadn't kind of been elevated in the public consciousness by the Palme d', or, if a film like it was just an. If any Jafar Panahi movie gets an original screenplay nomination, you'd be like, you have to celebrate that. That's a really cool thing. So it's kind of mixed emotions, I would say, about this one.

[A]

Yeah, I can't game out. How it wins is the issue, and how you get Jafar Panahi on stage, which I think is something that is important for filmmaking and the world and I think would behoove the Academy. But original screenplay, that comes at the expense of Coogler, which I think really. Which is who I'm still picking, though I'm getting a little nervous because, oh.

[B]

I think he's winning.

[A]

I think he has two.

[B]

I think that's the only place where they're gonna be able to get him on stage.

[A]

Exactly. But then, you know, where is sentimental value, I guess, is. Is Stellan Skarsgrd the only win for sentimental value? That feel feels a little strange.

[B]

Probably so.

[A]

But don't you think that they're gonna want to get Joachim Trigger on the stage? I mean, I guess not. I don't know.

[B]

So my gut is that Secret Agent will win international.

[A]

I think you're right.

[B]

Stellan Skarsgrd will win supporting actor. We can get to that category momentarily. And it was just an accident. Will not have any representation at the show. That's what just happened at the Golden Globes. And part of my crankiness about the Golden Globes was this feels super duper predictive of the Oscars, and that's just less fun. It doesn't mean that the Globes has bad taste. Their taste is too good now, and that's Part of why there's, like, there is some surprise here, and there's some cool stuff that the Oscars did and some weird stuff that they did, but there's nothing truly stunning because we've now seen. Now we reserve the right to be totally wrong. We might have a crazy series of results on March 15. Nevertheless, let's keep going through this. No Guillermo del Toro in best director.

[A]

Yeah. I went five for five in director.

[B]

You did?

[A]

I did.

[B]

You did.

[A]

Congratulations. Thank you so much. I'm proud and excited. Congratulations. Josh Safdie.

[B]

This was the opposite for me of what I was trying to do with weapons, where it was like I was afraid.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

I didn't think Josh Safdie would be.

[A]

Nominated here because I did, because I believed.

[B]

Well, he got in at dga, which is, of course, very strong. And as you said, there's always four out of five that get in there. But in this. Is this five out of five?

[A]

No, because Del Toro was DGA and Trier.

[B]

So you were right. The Trier went in over Del Toro, which is fascinating. We've heard a lot.

[A]

I told you.

[B]

You did. You. Sentimental value, you can't rub it into much.

[A]

I know. I know.

[B]

We have Mrs. And we have hate.

[A]

I just. Just sentimental value is all. That's. I mean, that's what I meant by.

[B]

Yeah, no, it was. It was. It's very strong. But I'm. I'm really happy for Josh. Obviously, this was an extraordinary effort by them to get this movie made. Movie success. They've got to be feeling like they. They played this right all the way down the late release date. The Timothy Chalamet marketing thing, the way that Safdie's been selling the movie publicly, has been very successful. I. When. When best supporting actress was announced and Odessa Azion missed.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And then Daniel Lopatten missed in Score.

[A]

Which we're gonna get to.

[B]

We will talk about it. I was like, oh, no, they're not going for Marty. Marty's gonna get, like, three nominations. And that didn't turn out to be the case.

[A]

It worked out.

[B]

It worked out really well. They got editing, they got screenplay. Josh got in a director, you know, aside from, obviously, Shaolin.

[A]

Costume design.

[B]

Costume design. A lot of interesting spots for that movie. So. So it's kind of where it's strong and where it's not strong is kind of fascinating. But obviously pta, Coogler and Chloe Zhao has been kind of locked in place for many months, and Trier is a good one, I think Trier, who was nominated for screenplay in 2020, two for the worst person in the world. I think the filmmaking of that movie was a little bit overlooked and I think there's like a kind of montage oriented style that he has developed over time that is really interesting. So I'm really happy about that nomination as well. But, you know, none of you know the Park Chan Wooks, the Jafar Panahis del Toro's Ms. What do you make of that? Anything notable around that? Because Frankenstein did pretty well.

[A]

Yeah. I mean, he got screenplay. Frankenstein has plenty of representation and it is also like among the crafts. All the people, you know, you know, it's handmade. They spent so much time. They did. I. We've heard a lot about that. So I'm rolling my eyes, but they did spend a lot of time and so I think it was honored where it's honored and then people made interesting choices. I. I feel pretty comfortable with it.

[B]

It's interesting that they. The movie is recognized for having a good screenplay, but not for being well direct. Not as well directed. Well, you.

[A]

You have 10 slots for screenplay.

[B]

That's. That's what it is. Okay. We already mentioned no other choice. Totally blanked. Sorry, baby. Totally blanked. Was disappointed by that. Thought there was an outside chance. Did we both predict it in an original? We did. And.

[A]

And Victor did not we believe in the power of Julia Roberts?

[B]

Not quite. Yeah. Maybe if it was a little sooner, she could have gotten more people to see that film. I mentioned Daniel Lope Patton not getting in for Marty Supreme.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Let's talk about original score now.

[A]

Sanctions.

[B]

My guy Jerskin Fendricks got in for Begonia and it appears that he took the one spot that could have been held for Daniel Lepant from Marty Supreme.

[A]

So no Marty Supreme. This comes a year after no Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for challengers.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

This body, this voting group is. Is on notice. It's. It's past notice.

[B]

Well, I mean, let's talk about what's happening here, because Surat was not nominated either.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And what that tells you is, is that electronic music is not where this group leans. This voting group is a classical group. The idea of Alexander Das Plotz work for Frankenstein being recognized here after many, many nominations.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

You know, obviously Ludwig Are, Inc. And I think kind of like makes that complex, you know, because he's using a lot of different styles and he, you know, he's gonna win in this category. He's a total master.

[A]

Sure.

[B]

Yeah. But, you know, this sucks. Well, you mentioned no challengers and. And no Surat and no Lo Patton. And I don't. I actually don't know, like as film scores, like kind of like the shape and tone of them change over time. How can the body maybe more adequately reflected? The shifting styles is something that's interesting. On the other hand, like Train Dreams isn't here either. And that's a kind of like more traditional score that you might find. Begonia is a. Is a weird score. It is very orchestral, very string based, very brat. A lot of brass. But it's still weird, right?

[A]

It's. It's more, you know, Philip Glass, John.

[B]

And like, you know, more avant garde.

[A]

Like modern avant garde, still classical. As opposed to, you know, people who used to be on Pitchfork.

[B]

Right. Yeah. I would have liked to have seen.

[A]

A patent still be on Pitchfork. I don't really know what's going on in Pitchfork.

[B]

Pitchfork, you have to subscribe now.

[A]

It couldn't tell me. I think it's owned by Conde Nast.

[B]

That I know. Yeah.

[A]

Which still will not give me an all access pass.

[B]

I see.

[A]

So despite the free work that I have done for them for going on 15 years, I'm not sure if they're.

[B]

Totally aware of that free work.

[A]

The fact checkers are. They call me.

[B]

Oh, that's a good point. Yeah. Pitchfork, I used to write there. I wrote there for years. Six years, seven years.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Great experience. I wouldn't be where I am today without Pitchfork. Yeah, different ownership.

[A]

I. I think this is an abomination. That Daniel Patton was an abomination. I'm this. I wrote in all caps. Original score committee, you are on notice. Okay, you guys gotta have some meetings.

[B]

My favorite score of the year.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Interesting that Johnny Greenwood still hasn't won and pretty much has no chance to win this year. And this is to me, this is my favorite of his scores, which I've mentioned in the past. Okay, let's talk about documentary real quick. So this is a hard category to predict. Yes, we did our absolute best and we're still pretty wrong.

[A]

You've put this in snubs and I put it under what the fucks.

[B]

Right. So is it a snub or is it a what the fuck?

[A]

Well, because I just. And it was the last one and all I wrote was whatever is going on with the documentary branch comma.

[B]

Again, I find it hard to have a strong opinion about this because I haven't even seen two of the nominees here. And so I'm not going to pretend as though I have a definitive point of view about it. I do think Laura Poitras Cover up, her portrait of Seymour Hirsch not being here is unfortunate. I'm not surprised that it didn't get in ultimately because it feels more like what gets left out. Now, okay, Seymour Hirsch is not Michael J. Fox, but it is a portrait of a man and a well known person. And the branch is just not as interested in that as it is issues oriented or kind of dramatic portraits of the world in struggle. And so the nominees in this category are the Alabama Solution, which I predicted, Come See Me in the Good Light, which neither of us predicted, which is on Apple right now if you want to watch it Cutting Through Rocks, which I have not seen, which neither of us predicted. Mr. Nobody against Putin, which you predicted.

[A]

I did.

[B]

And then the Perfect Neighbor, which is probably the most watched documentary of the year, is on Netflix. Netflix probably struggled to get two candidates in alongside Cover up. And Perfect Neighbor is interesting. I think we probably should have a conversation about it and maybe this whole category. It's a movie that when I first saw it, I really liked it and a film that candidly went, the more I read about it and the more criticism I read about it, the more misgivings I had about its approach. I think it's simultaneously a very vital and important film, but one in which it's. The way in which it was made makes me a little queasy. And so maybe we can save some space for that in February to talk through it a little bit more. It does feel like it is the front runner in this category because of the number of people who will have seen it. It is very watchable in a way that some of these others. And now this category leaves the branch and everybody will vote for it.

[A]

Right.

[B]

So something like Cutting Through Rocks will probably have less views ultimately than something like the Perfect Neighbor, but we shall see. So the WTF nature of it is. I'm generally agree with you, which is just like I don't know how to predict this race and I know how to predict, predict like every other race I've.

[A]

I've kind of given up predicting it.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And certainly, you know, trying to watch everything to make an educated decision.

[B]

It'S too hard. Even with the short list, it doesn't really help because you don't know where things are going to go like 20,000 meters to Andrivka, the Ukrainian film. Like I just assumed that that was going to be there because the filmmaker's previous film was recognized by the academy. And it's a very powerful, vital movie and it's not here. So it's like, I don't. I don't. I actually don't. Just don't know how to do it. And that's fine. That's actually a good thing, I think, to not have everything be so predictable. Let's talk about surprises.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Biggest surprise, I think, is Delroy Lindo.

[A]

It's wonderful.

[B]

Great news. One of the best actors alive, a former guest on this show. He came on this show because he was campaigning for Defy Bloods. Really, during COVID I'd forgotten that. It's a wonderful interview for longtime Spike Lee and Congo fans such as myself. Have a lot of Delroy Lindo stock. I did not think he would get recognized here, but it is a kind of classical Oscar nomination where even if someone is overlooked in precursors, if they have a really strong body of work and they're really liked inside the industry, they will have a chance. Del or Lindo has not just been working in film. He's, you know, working in television for a long time on. What's that show? The spin off of the CBS show that Juliana Margulies was on.

[A]

Oh, right, okay. The Good Wife, but not the Good Wife. Then the next one with Baranski.

[B]

Correct.

[A]

Hold on.

[B]

Very sorry to the TV lovers. I just don't watch that show. But he's been on that show for a long time. You know, he's just a real. The Good Fight. Yes. An industry veteran, a terrific actor. My favorite performance of his is probably in the movie Clockers. He's excellent in Sinners. He has that great moment where he's telling the story in the car in Sinners. That is like your classic clip reel moment. He did come at the expense of some people. You want to talk about supporting, I.

[A]

Mean, he came at the expense, quote unquote, of Paul Mescal, which. Who will be fine.

[B]

He will be fine.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Paul McCartney.

[A]

And I hope he'll still be there at the show.

[B]

I don't really care. You know what?

[A]

Well, I don't know. Jesse Buckley says such nice things to him whenever she's on stage that, you.

[B]

Know, I would like her to say nice things to me.

[A]

Sure. I know he's very. He's reactive. Like, he's a good front or second row Oscar guy.

[B]

He's a young star. He's a true young star. But he was overlooked here.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And that's okay. I agree. I think it's okay. I think it's great to tell where Lindo's and the other people in this category are. Benicio Del Toro of Course. Jacob Elordi, Sean Penn and Stellan Skarsgarden.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Feels like a Lordy versus Skarsgard. And I do feel that the one Battle guys are going to be splitting the vote.

[A]

I. I think you're right. I think it's a bummer.

[B]

It's interesting.

[A]

You never know, though.

[B]

You never know.

[A]

I'll be so excited if they say Benicio del Toro.

[B]

I might be banging the jump for Delroy Lindo. Okay. Can we make that happen?

[A]

Why not? I mean, Sinners has 16 nominations.

[B]

That's what I'm saying. And. And Stellan Skarsgard and Delroy Lindo are basically in the same spot. Neither have ever been nominated. They're both in. I think they're both in their 70s. They're both tremendously admired. They've contributed a lot to very discreet movements in cinema. And this is a long overdue thing. So it's fascinating to see them both in this category together.

[A]

That's great.

[B]

This is a good category. I like it's not the best category. We'll talk about the best category. But it's a really, really good collection.

[A]

I really, really like four out of five.

[B]

Okay. Yeah. You hate Sean Penn.

[A]

It's not that I hate him. I, you know, it's great to have someone just like smoking on camera in the middle of the Golden Globes.

[B]

Yeah. But he just looks like Wiley Coyote, like exploded by TNT in every award show and interview he does.

[A]

I would have used that spot for something else.

[B]

Okay, let's talk about best actress in a supporting role, because one of the other big surprises, as we mentioned, was Elle Fanning getting in there, which I think is a great one. So two nominees in Sentimental Value. In this category, along with Inga, we mentioned Amy Madigan. We have not mentioned one. Miyami Masaku, which you predicted.

[A]

I did.

[B]

And I did notice more and more pundits getting around to the idea of predicting her in the last two weeks or so. Despite not being like, she wasn't nominated at the Globes, she hasn't really won very many precursors.

[A]

Right.

[B]

But she was, I guess she wasn't.

[A]

A critics choice and she was nominated at sag.

[B]

At sag.

[A]

Even though she held onto that. Even though SAG just completely ignored sentimental values and seemingly all international were non English speaking roles. Okay, whatever, guys, do you think that matters? SAG or.

[B]

Well, I know that SAG is effectively not predictive if your film is not in English. And that's fine. We can accept that as somebody who follows this stuff really closely. Is it important? Like, SAG is a. Is an American guild. There are international members. But like, I think about this all the time with like DGA and PGA and kind of what is their role in terms of what do they represent? Because the academy has like tilted this stuff so hard where all of a sudden now, you know, the Secret Agent is just like absolutely competing in Best Picture. It happens so rarely. That's an interesting thing. But these guilds, then, they don't seem. They seem more representative of American filmmaking, but not totally. Where, like, sometimes they'll tilt in a certain direction.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

On certain things where you'll be like, okay, so like Sentimental Value got in at pga. Mm. It didn't really make any money at the box office. It was produced outside of this country. It's obviously a great movie and it's an act of producing, I suppose. But why is that more significant than what the Secret Agent or it was just an accident. Did you know what I mean? Where it's like, there's something kind of confusing about what is really being graded and where and why that I find interesting. It's not a negative, it's just. It's a developing thing that is happening in this space.

[A]

I mean, to your question of does it matter, I think like, not. Not at all. In the sense that these are all made up. What is, what is the purpose of these awards? Is the purpose to be pre. Predictive then? I think it does.

[B]

You know, like, that's not what's in their mission statement. Right. Honor the best in the thing that they do.

[A]

I guess so. But why are they honorable?

[B]

I don't know.

[A]

What is the point of that? You know, the SAG Awards has been touting the fact that they will be on Netflix this year. So they clearly want like the largest audience possible, which would mean a global audience. And Netflix obviously has an international reach. But so if you're gonna do that and then pretend that you only have English speaking, you know, mostly American actors, it's. It's not a long term strategy.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I would say.

[B]

Well, it jumps out obviously because of the four nominations for Sentimental Value in Acting.

[A]

Right.

[B]

Including Ellen, Inga and Renata Ranzva and Skarsgrd. But to me, the biggest example of it is Wagner Mora, who is like in Saga, was on Narcos for years. Like, he's been in tons of American productions. He's a very. He's a well known actor. Yeah. People may not know his name, but people just sitting at home like clicking tiles and streaming are like, oh, yeah, that guy, you know, like the cartel king from Narcos. So for him to not get recognized in some of those bodies is just kind of, it's a, it's an interesting wrinkle in this and we have similar confusion points with bafta. And it's just a reminder that, like, take some of these things seriously, but not too seriously. And as I should tell myself, go with my gut when I need to. Tiana Taylor's also obviously nominated in this category and I thought she was going to win for the longest time and I'm still leaning Amy Madigan now.

[A]

Okay. I think that the two sentimental value noms does cancel them out.

[B]

I agree.

[A]

So then you've got Tiana and Amy Madigan. The fact that Chase Infinity did not get nominated does not really bode well for how the voters are thinking about the value of the female performances in one battle after another. Once again, do not. That is not my opinion. I am observing, not endorsing. I disagree vehemently.

[B]

And so you said you should at AK Dobbins. You're racist. You don't understand. Yeah, okay.

[A]

But yeah, I think, I think you're right that the field might be clearing for Amy Madigan.

[B]

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[A]

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[B]

Diane Warren.

[A]

I told you.

[B]

You did.

[A]

I didn't text you when it happened. You know, that didn't. The dam didn't even break on that one. I was just kind of like, I this.

[B]

This another category. I'm just like, this is poppycock. It's been poppy for decades. This is the worst nonsense. I predicted two Wicked for good songs for no reason. Like, I don't know why I did that.

[A]

That was silly. I predicted one. This is a silly, silly category. And. And. But golden will win. And golden is one of the only entrants in this category in the last five years that, like, is True to the Spirit, which is a song written.

[B]

For the film itself and also penetrated the mainstream in a way along the same lines as, like, gosh, I don't even know, like the hustle and flow theme. You know what I mean? Like, there. It's very rare that a song like breaks through and people are really into it. From this category. Other nominees. So Dear Me. From Diane Warren, Relentless. That's a documentary about how Diane Warren is relentless.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Highest to lowest, from highest to lowest, which neither of us predicted. And in hindsight, I don't know what we were doing there. We probably should have just predicted that because that's a movie that a lot of people have seen from Spike Lee. It's the titular song from the movie. The film ends with its performance. Chiller song I lied to you from Sinners, which we both had sweet dreams of joy from a film called Viva Verde, Exclamation point, which I had never heard of.

[A]

Wait, so Highest to Lois was nominated?

[B]

I thought I saw Highest. Did I not see it?

[A]

I know. And you texted me this earlier and I was like, I was doing my hair and I was confused.

[B]

Oh, do I have this wrong?

[A]

I am. I'm just double checking. And six.

[B]

Oh, you're Right.

[A]

I've got six. You can cut in. Yeah, you've got six.

[B]

Wait, no. Did Train Dreams make it?

[A]

Train Dreams made it.

[B]

Okay, well, I take it back. Highest to lowest.

[A]

All right, sorry. Highest to lowest. It's the titular song, but it does not get an Oscar.

[B]

I'm looking at the Hollywood Reporter Best Original Song list from this race, and highest to lowest is on it, and that's where I copied it from. They just had six songs there.

[A]

Why can the Academy not just release a PDF? Is this. Is it because the PDF doesn't exist. You know, this morning, I guess I wasn't actually looking.

[B]

PDF of all the nominations. Well, I think that's available somewhere.

[A]

Well, it's not, because everyone is just scrambling, typing things out as fast as.

[B]

That's what this is. This is a mistake made by the Hollywood Reporter that I then made on this podcast.

[A]

Well, that's because.

[B]

But seriously, though, let's just go back for a second. Let's rewind my highest to lowest take.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

I thought it made sense that this movie would be nominated because people have seen this movie, it's directed by Spike Lee, but it's not nominated. And a song called Sweet Dreams of Joy from Viva Verde is nominated. What is Sweet Dreams of Joy from Viva Verde?

[A]

What is Viva Verde? Thanks so much for asking. Viva Verde is what I think you mean. Not Live Long Live Green.

[B]

Not green.

[A]

Yeah, but Verdi, the composer here is what I pulled off of Google.

[B]

We've been doing Spanish at home, so Verde is on the mind.

[A]

Okay, great. An intimate glimpse into the lives of the celebrated opera singers and musicians currently living out their quote unquote third act while mentoring international music students who live among them at Milan's unique retirement home, Casa Verdi, built by Verdi the composer in 1896.

[B]

So did you listen to the song?

[A]

No, of course not.

[B]

I mean, it's an operetta. It's not even a song. I don't. I don't even understand. This is a very strange thing. This category is fucking broken. They got it. They should probably just delete it.

[A]

I have been saying this for 10 years.

[B]

They should delete it.

[A]

Completely agree.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

It's terrible. They can give it to Golden.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And then we're done.

[B]

Maybe there should just be, like, they should just choose the winner every year. Like, don't even do the nominations. Just choose the winner and be like, hey, it's obviously golden, guys. Like, we're not even. You know, Lewis Pullman is like, hey, everybody, good news. I'm able to give out one award here at 5:30 in the morning. Golden step right up. Yeah. That actually is not a bad idea to give out one award on nominations morning. Every year it changes.

[A]

Good morning America. Not on Good morning America.

[B]

Why not?

[A]

We need to update. Why are we all up at 5:30? Like the news cycle is totally different.

[B]

I'm telling you.

[A]

We got to renovate this.

[B]

Me, I've got incredible ideas. We could be giving away best sound to F1 today. We don't have to wait two more months.

[A]

Then you would be crying. That's like worse than showing Golden Globes score win during the commercials. No. Everybody on the telegram.

[B]

This is the second biggest morning in the Oscars news cycle. The sound win is going to go completely overlooked when it happens on March 15 because there's going to be 23 other awards given out if we give it out on this morning as a treat. And it changes every year. And we don't tell people what. What they're going to give out, but we tell the nominee so they come to at 5:30 in the morning.

[A]

They have their money.

[B]

This is a good idea.

[A]

No, it's a terrible idea.

[B]

God damn it. No.

[A]

Everyone wants to be on the stage. Everybody wants to be Julia Roberts on.

[B]

The stage with Danielle Brooks.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Right. And Lynette Howell Taylor, president of the Academy.

[A]

Lewis Pullman and Danielle Brooks did a lovely job.

[B]

They did good.

[A]

That's all. Good job that. I don't need that many speeches from the Academy president at 5:30am but makeup and hairstyling. Yeah.

[B]

So you have not heard of two of these films?

[A]

Well, I googled them. So now I've done my research.

[B]

I have. I've heard of both of them that you're referring to. I have seen the Ugly Stepsister.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Which is a Scandinavian horror reimagination of Cinderella.

[A]

I mean, I gather.

[B]

The eyes of an ugly stepster. Yes. That is very gross. And. And, and good. I think it's. It was a little oversold to me. So I didn't love it as much. And I actually never got a chance to talk about it on this show. Like, Chris and I never talked about.

[A]

Midnight section at Sundance.

[B]

It was. And it was picked up by Shudder. You can stream it on Shudder right now. It's a good film. Kokuho.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Which is a Japanese film. It was the Japanese entry for international feature this year. Has had a very strong advocate in the public. And that person is Tom Cruise.

[A]

Cool.

[B]

He has hosted screenings and talked about his love for this movie. I haven't seen it.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

It is in theaters right now in a precious few theaters. I think it's playing the Burbank 16, so I'm gonna go check it out very soon.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

Other films as well now that were recognized in makeup and hairstyling include Frankenstein and Sinners, of course, and the Smashing Machine, which we predicted. Those other three as we went through. That's. I think this is good.

[A]

The Marty Supreme Manicure not recognized. And the Marty Supreme.

[B]

Neither the manicure nor Timothee Chalamet's acne. Yeah.

[A]

But it did make it in costume design, which I'm pleased about.

[B]

Do you want to talk about costume design quickly?

[A]

Yeah. Miyako Belize was nominated for all the incredible stuff in Marty Supreme. Let's see.

[B]

Well, there's one really odd nomination that.

[A]

I actually kind of like Avatar, Fire and Ash.

[B]

Yes. Avatar, Fire and Ash got in there. Frankenstein we knew would get in. Hamnet we knew would get in. Marty supreme we'd hoped would get in. Sinners we knew would get in. So that a fairly predictable category. However, Avatar, Fire and Ash. Like, is this for dressing Varang.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Or undressing Varang, as it were.

[A]

Have I told you about the mindshare that just the words Avatar, Fire and ash have in our home now?

[B]

You have, like, that.

[A]

My, like, Nox just, like, whispers it in moments of, like, you know, he's seen the images. So in that sense, the costumes, which are our blue digital makeup.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Are very effective.

[B]

Well, I mean, is this also the costumes for, like, the human characters?

[A]

I guess so. Edie Falco is, like, big machine and.

[B]

But that's not interesting. You think the power loader is being considered as part of her costume?

[A]

Well, this is another innovation you could make. Is not listed in production design.

[B]

Yes. Best machinery.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Is something we should consider here at the Academy Awards. We're coming up with some goals right now. What else. Where else do you want to go in this conversation? We've talked about the documentary branch, We've talked about costume design. We've talked about all of the acting categories except for actor and actress. Let's do that right now. The best category, maybe in the history of the Academy Awards is this year's Best actor race. This is as good as it gets for the Academy Awards.

[A]

That's great.

[B]

I can't. We've been. We have been predicting, for the most part, this fivesome, in part because I think we've hoped it would be the case. We started talking about this way back when Sinners came out because we had hoped Michael B. Jordan would get in and you know what? He kind of like locked himself into this race and has held in in every single precurs. He's won nothing. Yeah, he's won nothing. But he has hung around here. And he's here, of course, as are timothee Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, and Wagner Mora. Five great performances, five great movies. You still think Timothee Chalamet.

[A]

I don't know. I'm working through it.

[B]

I think what's going on?

[A]

So what do I think is going to happen? Or what is my pick? Timmy forever don't have the jackets.

[B]

No, no, I know your pick, but what else? What's going on inside you? Give us a little bit of your.

[A]

Interior monologue we learned from yesterday. And what we learned from waking up and coming to podcast every day with Sean Pennessy is don't be a coward. Trust your gut. And my gut has been saying Wagner Mora for some time. You know, I trust my gut. And also the people of Brazil and their love for cinema and their power and their advocacy. So I, you know, I'm trying to lean in to what I believe. On the other. And the Secret Agent is strong, you know, relatively speaking. On the other hand, I'm trying to game out, like, the next two months. And there are appearances, I guess there's, you know, tea parties and the, the Oscars, lunch where they all pose and all of that stuff. But I don't know how many opportunities Wagner Moura has to get in front of as many people as Timothy Chalamet has already gotten in front of. And he's not nominated at sag, AKA the Actor Awards, so he won't even get like a. Wasn't that when Michelle Yeoh started to turn the tide against Cate Blanchett and.

[B]

Jamie Lee Curtis as well?

[A]

Exactly. So he won't get one of those. And Timothy Chalamet, if he wins at the Actor Awards, will have just given three acceptance speeches in front of people. And I do think that there's a lizard brain aspect to this at some point. So I don't know. On the other hand, I've just been thinking a lot about Olivia Colman, Lady Gaga, you know, so you never know.

[B]

Okay, here's my. Here's where my, my mind goes as I hear you talk about that, okay? If in fact, Wagner Mora wins in this category, which is of course, very possible, and I'm not saying would not be worthy as a win, this will probably go down as one of those kinds of losses for Chalamet that we talk about. On the rewatchables all the time, which is like, this was the best chance to recognize this person here. And now a long time may go by before they get a chance. And the person that I think about is Leonardo Dicat. Oh, no. Paul Newman. Oh, Paul Newman in the 1960s, starting in 1959, was nominated for Cat in a Ha Tin Roof. And then three years later, the Hustler. And then two years later, Hud. And then 4,000 years, four years later, Cool Hand Luke. And he never won. He lost to David Niven, Maximilian Schell, Sidney Poitier, and Rod Steiger. None of those losses are like bad losses. You lost to very famous actors, beloved actors, legendary wins. Poitier winning, Maximilian Schell for Judgment at Nuremberg, a really powerful performance. None of those are, like, bad. Yeah, but if you don't recognize the actor at the top of their game in their youth, you might have to wait 25 years. And of course, he did have to wait a very long time to win for the Color of Money. And he did win eventually. But the idea of Timothee Chalamet winning at, like, 59 is just very funny. Like, will Timothee chalamet ever be 59?

[A]

Exactly, it seems. Will any of us be alive now?

[B]

It's totally possible.

[A]

Will movies exist.

[B]

Timothee Chalamet could make a movie in 2028 that is one of the best films ever made, and he could win for that film. But we've seen this over and over again. And so to game out that thing that you're describing is interesting. This is how it happens is really what I'm trying to say.

[A]

He has always been the new Leo to me. I mean, just in the, you know, the career rise, which is starting as a teen heartthrob and very, very passionate teen fan base, expanding, working with a lot of great directors nominated, but not winning. And, you know, they have encouraged the comparisons as well. And certainly now, like, the. This Oscar race is like, you know, from Leo to Timmy, but Leo did not win until the Revenant. He had to wear like a bear skin.

[B]

I said to our pal Joanna Robinson, who I saw in person in the office yesterday, wonderfully, it's just so weird how Leo's not competing in this race. It's so weird because he's so present.

[A]

Unbelievable. But I mean, this is. This is a larger one battle thing. Once again, it's our favorite movie of the year. It's 13 nominations, and we have not really talked about it at all, even in this podcast, unless to say, you know, oh, yeah. And one battle was.

[B]

I mean, it's gonna win Best Picture. And we have a lot of time to talk about that.

[A]

That's true. And I. And I. I'm not gonna concern troll and say, like, is this, you know, inattention gonna extend to Best Picture? And are we just gonna forget and forget? And I. I don't think so either. I don't.

[B]

It got 13 nominations, which is now the third most in the history of the Academy Awards. So I. I think the film is still very strong. You know, we can talk about best Actress now, given the chase. Infinity Snub, because Jessie Buckley, Rose Byrne, the aforementioned Kate Hudson, Renata Rheinzva, and Emma Stone are in here. It's been a Jesse Buckley steamroll through the season. We've seen this before, especially in this race. Someone is anointed and they carry it all the way through. There have been some diversions from that. You mentioned the Michelle Yeoh kind of late surge. Given the admiration for her, I'm not sure if there's a candidate here that could do the same. Rose Byrne is maybe a little bit less experienced than someone like Michelle Yeoh. Doesn't quite have the same track record. You could see if it was 10 years later, Rose Byrne could do that.

[A]

Yeah. Or if the movie were a tiny bit bigger. Yeah. And I love. If I had legs, I'd kick you. It was in my top five for last year. I think she's amazing in it. Amazing movie. I think even this, like, nomination, as she said at the Golden Globes when she won for best actress in a drama, like, it'll get more attention, which is. Which is good. But it's not everything everywhere all at once. It's not just box office wise.

[B]

Yeah. I feel like Buckley is pretty much in place there. That's another race where it's like, how much. Can we really talk about this for the next two months? Let's talk very briefly about the screenplay categories. Okay. Adapted. We both predicted perfectly. Five for five, Begonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet. One battle after another in Train Dreams. Not as much on the outskirts there. This felt like the single easiest big category to predict.

[A]

This is the one that they could have just handed out this morning, and I would have been okay with it because PTA is going to get other awards at the Oscars, and it's like, no one needs to spend the money on the outfits. No one needs to spend, you know, two hours in line at security trying to get in, like, so you think.

[B]

It'S a lock that he's Going to.

[A]

Win here for adapted. You think they're going to try to throw a bone to Chloe Zhao and Maggie o'? Farrell? I don't think so. Come on.

[B]

I don't know.

[A]

Okay, that's fine. I. I have. I. I do feel that they could just FedEx this to him. I would like to hear his speech.

[B]

Let's go back to.

[A]

I don't want them to do that.

[B]

Let's go back to director then.

[A]

Do.

[B]

Do you think that that then means that p. That PTA will win picture, director and screenplay?

[A]

I do. They did it last year.

[B]

Is there. Is that. Is that. Is there anything wrong with that?

[A]

No.

[B]

Nolan didn't get this right. He didn't win screenplay, as I recall.

[A]

Yeah, that's because he wrote the third hour of Oppenheimer.

[B]

But it is becoming more common and this is something that was very hard to accomplish for a long time. We often saw splits in director and picture to kind of like award multiple films and delineate the difference between those two jobs, I think. Which is kind of hard to parse, but does exist. As you have said, you don't want producers speaking at the Academy Awards. I guess he is going to win because I don't think that the other nominees are really all that strong. I would agree. I guess that's the case. Okay. Original screenplay, another very cool category with some very worthy nominees. Blue Moon. It was just an accident. Marty Supreme. Sentimental Value in Sinners. And we think it's just sinners.

[A]

As I said. I don't know what they're going to do about getting both Trier and Panahi on stage.

[B]

What if Marty supreme wins here?

[A]

I would be excited, but I would feel very bad. I. I think that this is Ryan Coogler's best chance at a speech and I really want that for him. I think it's really deserving. I think this as a. It's. This is the coolest award always. To us. This always has the coolest nominees. It goes to our favorite filmmakers instead of best picture. This is. This is like where the real ones are. And for this film, which is about how white people have stolen black art for a century, to then be nominated and win for screenplay would be great if someone else.

[B]

What would it mean if the white boy of the year?

[A]

Right. So that's also, you know, I just. Let's. Let's. Ryan Coogler, you know, like, it's. It's deserving. It's. It's the correct choice. Let's just do it.

[B]

I can't disagree.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Briefly. Cinematography. Did we predict these perfectly?

[A]

I think so.

[B]

I believe we both did.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

It's Dan Lautsen for Frankenstein. Darius Kandi from Marty Supreme. Our pal David Sims pointed out that Darius Kandry has three Academy Award nominations. One of the greatest living cinematographers, the French Iranian filmmaker. Those three nominations, do you have any idea what they are? Can you even guess at all?

[A]

No.

[B]

You know, well known for shooting seven, has worked with some of the best filmmakers of all time. He shot Uncut Gems. His three nominations are Evita Bardo and Marty Supreme. Weird.

[A]

It's really good.

[B]

Michael Bauman for One Battle After Another, Autumn, Gerald Arkhipov for Sinners and Adolfo Veloso. I'm feeling Autumn feels like she's going to win. That would be another place where sinners could be recognized. You never know. I could see Darius winning here. I could see Michael Bauman winning here. I could see Adolfo Veloso winning here. Train Dreams, that beautiful digital cinematography that is so hard to accomplish. The other nomination that I'm really excited about is Jack Fisk in production design. I talked to Jack Fisk for the show. You'll hear that conversation very soon. He was not nominated when we spoke, so we didn't talk about that. He's been nominated before, never won. His work on Marty supreme is insanely good.

[A]

Yeah. A living legend.

[B]

I don't think he's the leader in the clubhouse for this award. I will stump for this.

[A]

Who do you think is the leader?

[B]

Well, the other nominees are Tamara Deverell for Frankenstein, Fiona Crombie for Hamnet, Florencia Martin for One Battle After Another, and Hannah Beechler for Sinners. I do think Hannah Beachler is leading.

[A]

I do as well.

[B]

And she did win. Right. I feel. I feel like she won previously for Black Panther. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[A]

Let's see. She. Yes, she did.

[B]

She won. So that's an interesting one. I'd like to see Jack Fisk get one before Hannah Baker gets to. That's just me. We'll see.

[A]

I would as well. But this award does tend. It's like not only do they favor period, but like, the more period, the better, the further back in time you have to go.

[B]

You're right. You're very right. Quickly, film editing. F1 got in here.

[A]

Yeah, we expected that.

[B]

We did. Marty supreme also got in here.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

One battle after another. Sentimental Value and Sinners. Marty Supreme. The only film in which the filmmakers edited the film. You don't see that too often these days. And we mentioned casting and the confusion about what this category is going to be over time.

[A]

I'm sure they'll clear that up for us. I'm sure they'll just. They'll release everything straight to YouTube.

[B]

Question for you. Just a predictive question for you. How many years will go by before a film is nominated in casting that does not get a Best Picture nomination?

[A]

Oh, interesting. I mean, that's hard because you have the 10 spots. I mean, four.

[B]

Okay. I asked that specifically because when you look in a category like film editing, which is historically very important in the package for a best picture Winner. Winner. F1's there.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And it did get into best Picture, but I wouldn't have predicted that. And I didn't predict it. And sometimes a movie.

[A]

Even though in your heart you did predict.

[B]

Even though I did know. Okay, looking at the. The board in full again and looking at Best Picture before we wrap up here, this is a pretty cool slate of nominees. Definitely a. I would say a good morning for the Academy Awards. Nothing like embarrassing.

[A]

True.

[B]

F1 is. There will be some notes.

[A]

Silly.

[B]

A little silly.

[A]

Kooky.

[B]

Kooky.

[A]

Is the. My word of choice.

[B]

A little kooky.

[A]

Okay. But, you know, as I say about, you know, can't mom and dad have fun? Like, can't the Academy have fun too every once in a while? I guess they can.

[B]

Yeah, I think so. This is for the dads. That's for the dads. F1 is a dad movie. It's a dad classic instantaneously. And dads can now tune into the Academy Awards. We said that we think one battle is going to win. It's got the second most nominations. We just mocked three or four potential Sinners wins too. What film do you think will win the most Academy Awards on this night?

[A]

Let's see. So I have 1, 2, 3 for one battle. Top line.

[B]

And that's it. Right.

[A]

And do I have any acting? No. Right now I'm leaning Amy Madigan. Do I have anything below the line?

[B]

Editing, maybe?

[A]

Editing, maybe. And maybe. Yeah.

[B]

So that's maybe cinematography, maybe.

[A]

No, but I think all of that stuff is going to go to Sinners. So Sinners. I have definitely score. Cinematography, original screenplay. We gotta do it. So that's three. What else? Costume, production, maybe.

[B]

These are both in play.

[A]

Yeah. So that's. That's five, which is over four. So right now I think I'm going. I mean, some of this is just numbers.

[B]

That's what I was just gonna say. Here's the thing about being nominated 16 times. You increase your Odds of winning more awards. Exactly. So you have 16 bites at the apple and like, let's. I don't know how much we're gonna talk about sinners on Academy Awards night. And we will talk about the movie again on the show because we're gonna rewatch it and read and talk through kind of what's great about it. You'll finally get a chance to see the after credits sequence. Congrats to you. Just.

[A]

I'm gonna watch it all, you know, in full as it was intended.

[B]

But this is a movie that got really stuck in the discourse funnel. It had box office discourse, it had representation discourse. It had craft, you know, skill, art discourse. Is this movie actually good? You hear that a lot of times now because it's like a vampire movie. And I think that will be a reaction to 16 nominations is like really? This is the film that absolutely shattered the all time record for the Academy Awards. Some of that is a function of just kind of like what the Academy is right now. Some of it is the function of the number of people who've worked on this film who are now Academy veterans. The Hannah Beeklers and Ludwig Aransons of the world. Like, what did it all mean? What was it all for? Like, we participated in all of it, you know, like, it didn't mean anything. The movie made $400 million. It got 16 hours.

[A]

This is why you, Sean fantasy, need to stop posting, you know?

[B]

No, go outside.

[A]

Watch the film and then go outside.

[B]

I guess that I think that's actually the question I'm trying to ask is like, does the posting actually matter? No, because people, because when the discourse starts and somebody posts something annoying and then he's like, shut the fuck up. That's wrong. And then everybody gets all really bent out of shape about what they heard or what they saw on a social media app. But then can you actually win back the day by hard posting through it? Can Van Lathan win back the day by shouting down the haters?

[A]

Well, don't you think that some of the just like the confirmation in every category is all the rational minded people being like, stop posting. This was good. And I'm voting for it like it's an individual.

[B]

So I think the takeaway might be the opposite.

[A]

So you. So you think posting that, that's great.

[B]

Look at Timothee Chalamet.

[A]

I would. I know posting works.

[B]

I know we're in an era of posting. Yeah, you know, sentimental value. Elle Fanning's just been knocking through X.com for months. Look at where it Got her. Thank you to her. Did we even talk about the Mets training for Freddie Peralta? Everything is going great. Okay? They didn't.

[A]

I don't know who that is.

[B]

He was formerly the number one starting pitcher for the Milwaukee brewers who won the most games in the NL Central last year. Yeah, he was traded to the New York Mets last night. Okay, Jack Sanders and I crying tears of joy.

[A]

Wonderful.

[B]

Thank you. David Stearns, you hath saved us. I'm here 5:30 in the morning, ready to go. I'm falling apart at the end of this podcast.

[A]

You did it.

[B]

Any. Any final takeaways?

[A]

You need to man up. You need to believe in your truth at all times. We're going back to F1, you know.

[B]

Yeah, I know. I need to get some of that.

[A]

Sunny energy, stop posting and start believing.

[B]

I know. And I've got all these young. These young Oscar pundits coming for me. You know, they're all like. They've all been. They've been watching, they've been learning, and they've been one upping me. They've been like, I listened to Sean, he said F1. I'm predicting F1. And then I didn't predict F1. Yeah, shameful. Yeah, shameful stuff. Well, we're gonna keep talking about this award show. How much? I don't know. We'll find out together. How often. Who can say? Who can say? Thank you to our producer, Jack Sanders, for his work on this episode. We'll be back very soon in the big picture. See you then.