The Big Picture – Oscar Noms Mailbag: Is ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After Another’ a Race?

Date: January 28, 2026
Hosts: Sean Fennessey, Amanda Dobbins
Producer/Guest: Jack Sanders

Episode Overview

Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins dive into their annual Oscar nominations mailbag, tackling listener questions about snubs, surprises, campaign strategies, and the overall state of the 2026 awards race. With the nominations fresh in the air, they assess category trends, studio strategies, power rankings, and whether ‘Sinners’ could truly overtake ‘One Battle After Another’ as the frontrunner for Best Picture. Alongside Oscar discussion, the team checks in on box office news, upcoming releases, and offer lively banter about Oscar party etiquette, memorable acceptance speeches, and their favorite performances of the year.

Key Segments & Discussion Points

1. Oscar Nomination Reactions & Context ([12:45–16:00])

• General sentiment: It’s a strong, diverse year for Oscar nominees with “some goofy things” but mostly good films being recognized.
• Notable topic: Concern that a handful of films dominate nominations, leading to fewer unique movies recognized in other categories.
• Quote:
  • “This was a pretty good crop of Oscar nominations this year. Some goofy things, like you said, but mostly good films being recognized.” – Sean (12:52)

2. Box Office Update & Upcoming Releases ([03:13–12:46])

• Box office is down due to winter storms; Chris Pratt’s ‘Mercy’ dethrones ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash.’
• ‘Bone Temple’ drops sharply, raising doubts about a third installment—Netflix may step in to co-finance.
• Upcoming releases: 'Send Help' (Rachel McAdams), Jason Statham’s 'Shelter,' Charli XCX’s 'The Moment,' Brett Ratner’s 'Melania,' and a self-financed Markiplier horror adaptation 'Iron Lung.’

3. Oscar Campaigns, Schedulers, and Snubs ([16:08–29:12])

• Deep dive into the exclusion of ‘No Other Choice’ (Park Chan-wook) and ‘Testament of Ann Lee.’

• Multiple listener questions on why these acclaimed films missed out.

• Theories:

  • Park Chan-wook’s WGA issues and possible industry blowback.
  • Neon’s complicated awards strategy—too many competing titles (“Ironman streak of the Palme d’Or”).
  • Release date scheduling: certain films released too late for full campaigns.
  • Market/cultural factors—challenging content, underdog status, and mixed critical response.

• Notable quote:

  • “It's a stumper...hardcore cinephile criticism...not all critics, but the more hardcore critic seems to be a little bit disinterested in it. And so it falls into this kind of nether space that I can't remember a lot of movies being in.” – Sean (19:38)

Key timestamped takeaways:

• [16:40] Full analysis of ‘No Other Choice’ snub.
• [23:58] ‘Testament of Ann Lee’ – picked up by Searchlight too late for proper Oscar push; Amanda Seyfried’s performance likely to be seen as a future “how did they miss this?” moment.

4. Best Picture Power Rankings & Major Race Analysis ([35:36–45:33])

• Central question: Does ‘Sinners’ have a legitimate shot to win Best Picture over ‘One Battle After Another’?
  • Sean: “Yes. Preferential ballot and 16 nominations make it wide open.” (35:43)
  • Amanda: “No—but it wouldn't be a shock if it won; trends still favor 'One Battle.'” (36:46)
  • Both discuss the historical precedent for late surges, campaign momentum, and the impact of high nomination counts.
• They also discuss the role of studio (both movies are Warner Bros), international appeal, and the possible “cancelling out” effect opening a path for ‘Hamnet’ or another third contender.

Standout commentary:

• “Sixteen nominations...just a profound number...It’s preferential ballot. And with preferential ballot, anything can happen when it comes to two movies that are both really well liked.” – Sean (36:06)
• “[Recent Best Picture winners] decided pretty early...in the end, those movies were dominant.” – Amanda (37:07)

5. Acting Races – Leo vs. Timothée Chalamet ([45:44–54:45])

• Listener asks why Leonardo DiCaprio isn’t the Best Actor frontrunner.
• Hosts’ consensus: It’s partly timing (Leo already won), partly the narrative (“It’s Timothée’s time”), and the Academy’s appetite for something “modern.”
• Notable, lighthearted tangent: Beeper and pager nostalgia; what tech Leo might use (46:43).

6. Oscar Parties & Viewing Etiquette ([54:46–61:15])

• Practical and humorous primer for hosting an Oscar party:
  • “Don’t talk” rule (Amanda: “the only person I have ever let talk to me during the Oscars is Sean” [55:12])
  • Ideal group size: 12
  • Oscar ballots, themed food, playlists, and drinks—essential.
  • Real talk: serious Oscar watchers may never truly enjoy group watch parties.

7. Category Bloating & Awards Schema ([62:19–72:31])

• Should acting categories expand to 10, matching Best Picture?
  • Amanda: Advocates for adding breakthrough and ensemble/one-scene awards (66:44)
  • Sean: Defends 10-wide Best Picture as achieving its mission; less certain about bulking up other categories.
• They brainstorm alternative prize ideas (“one scene award,” a more public Lifetime Achievement race, etc.).

8. Underrated Performances & Snubs of the Year ([73:30–76:56])

• Both pick unsung favorite performances:
  • Sean: Elizabeth Olsen (‘The Assessment’); Josh O’Connor (‘Wake Up Dead Man’).
  • Amanda: Ralph Fiennes (‘28 Years Later’); Jennifer Lawrence (‘Die My Love’).
  • Recognize: Great work is sometimes lost due to scheduling/campaign failures.

9. Best Needle Drop in Film ([80:33–83:27])

• Matt proposes a Best Needle Drop Oscar. Sean and Amanda shout out their favorites:
  • “Dirty Work” (Steely Dan) – ‘One Battle After Another’
  • “American Girl” and “Soldier Boy” – used in Sinners and One Battle After Another
  • “Beware of Darkness” – ‘Weapons’
• Neither thinks the Academy will ever honor this category, but love the internet-y idea.

10. Sequels, Festivals, and the Oscar Pipeline ([83:47–98:35])

• Listeners ask:
  • Is there an anti-sequel bias? Will ‘Dune Messiah’ get Return of the King love, or be shut out like ‘Wicked 2’?
  • Are fall festivals losing steam as Oscar pipelines?
• Hosts: The pipeline is more complex than before—Cannes and Venice often set the conversation earlier, while “event” movies sometimes thrive without festivals. 'Dune Messiah' not a locked-in frontrunner (85:34, 87:28, 95:16).

11. Memorable Oscar Speeches ([99:26–103:17])

• Favorite acceptance speeches:

  • Bong Joon Ho for ‘Parasite’ (shouting out Scorsese and Tarantino)

  • Marion Cotillard (“there are angels in this city tonight”)

  • Matt Damon & Ben Affleck for ‘Good Will Hunting’

  • Jack Lemmon doggedly celebrating his ‘Save the Tiger’ win while acknowledging Oscar discourse

  • “When a filmmaker is part of a lineage...that was just a special moment.” — Sean (100:35)

12. Best Picture Power Rankings Reset ([103:30–110:56])

• Hosts run through their revised Best Picture rankings (post-noms):

  1. One Battle After Another
  2. Sinners
  3. Hamnet
  4. Sentimental Value
  5. Marty Supreme
  6. Frankenstein
  7. The Secret Agent
  8. Train Dreams
  9. Begonia
  10. F1
  • “Let’s freeze this moment in time. If on March 15, Sinners wins...you’ll say, ‘I was wrong.’” – Sean (105:08)
  • “That’s the ultimate paradox—you’ll never be cool, but you can sometimes be right.” – Sean re Amanda’s Oscar predictions (105:41)

Notable Quotes & Banter

• “Sean and I do not vote for the Oscars. So you can send your opinions to us, but not your complaints.” – Amanda (13:32)
• “One thing that you’ll hear pundits say: Kate Hudson worked it this year...She’s evidently a good time. She’s fun and people like her...” – Sean (29:26)
• “In my entire life, the only person I’ve ever allowed to talk to me during the Oscars is Sean Fennessey. That’s the closest I’ll come to saying ‘I love you’ to Sean Fennessey.” – Amanda (55:12)
• Discussing Oscar party etiquette: “You have to know what time the Oscars start—absolutely essential” – Amanda (57:36)
• On the state of the race: “A little bored a month ago, and now, my engines have been refired.” – Sean (44:49)
• On Eddington: “It’s in many ways the most accurate movie of the last year, but provoking… I never expected it to be nominated.” – Amanda (88:48)

Timestamps of Essential Segments

• Oscar noms initial breakdown: [12:46–16:00]
• ‘No Other Choice’ and ‘Testament of Ann Lee’ debate: [16:08–29:12]
• One Battle vs. Sinners Best Picture showdown: [35:36–45:33]
• Best Actor (Leo vs. Timothée) race: [45:44–54:45]
• Oscar Party Hosting Tips: [54:46–61:15]
• Should Acting Categories Expand to 10?: [62:19–72:31]
• Best Needle Drop discussion: [80:33–83:27]
• Favorite Oscar speeches: [99:26–103:17]
• Best Picture Power Rankings: [103:30–110:56]

Tone & Style

The episode is fast-moving, witty, and conversational—combining the hosts’ deep cinephile expertise with their characteristic irreverence (metatextual jokes about Oscar punditry, plenty of gentle ribbing, and meta-interrogation of the awards cycle). They freely blend deep industry analysis, pointed listener questions, and pop culture references (“no one cares about the Globes anymore…”), putting themselves both inside and outside the traditional Oscar conversation.

TL;DR

Sean and Amanda tackle Oscar snubs, the logic of nominations (or the lack thereof), the Sinners vs. One Battle Best Picture battle, category expansion, and their annual power rankings reset. The episode is a cinephile’s delight, offering generous banter, practical Oscar party guidance, and a steady reminder: “We don’t know… but we have some ideas.”