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Sean Fennessey
Foreign.
I'm Sean Fennesee.
Amanda Dobbins
I'm Amanda Dobbins and this is the.
Sean Fennessey
Big Picture 8 conversation show about the future of movies. Good morning and life itself. We have a staggeringly loaded episode this fine Monday morning. It's 8am we will discuss the just announced Golden Globe nominations which seem not terribly important relative to everything else. We'll discuss. We will also be discussing it was just an accident which is the new film from Jafar Panahi. It's a Palme d' or winning thriller and it examines a chilling aspect of life under the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. As you may have heard on the show last week, thanks to Adam Neyman, it is one of the great movies of the year. It was also my honor to be joined by Panahi later in this episode to talk about the film, how and why he made it in secret his fascinating career. An outspoken dissident and a world class filmmaker. We recorded our conversation with Panahi before the news came out that he was recently once again sentenced to serve one year in prison in his in Iran when he returns to the country. So we won't be addressing that in that conversation. But I hope you will stick around for the discussion. He is an amazing person and an amazing thinker about movies.
Amanda Dobbins
But first gotta talk about some assholes in suits.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah, there was a major transaction maybe in the world of movies and television. And we will talk about it right after this.
Amanda Dobbins
This episode of the Big Picture is presented by Amazon Prime. You know how in every great holiday movie there's that last minute scramble to make it all come together. From gifts to hosting essentials. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute and just can't wait. So if you need fast free delivery that saves the day, it's on Prime. Head to Amazon.comprime to shop now.
Sean Fennessey
Okay, Amanda, I should have said suit.
Amanda Dobbins
Jackets, hoodies, you know, I don't really know. Suits is more of a metaphorical symbolic term than an actual description of what these men are wearing.
Sean Fennessey
Yes, it probably is mostly men who are participating. On Thursday afternoon we recorded our top five movies of the year episode, which is historically one of our bigger episodes, one that we spend all year preparing for. And then of course, three hours after we finished recording that episode, the news came down officially that Netflix's offer to acquire Warner brothers was accepted. $82.7 billion.
I want. We have to talk about everything we know about this.
Amanda Dobbins
Right?
Sean Fennessey
But I just want to start by saying I'M very happy that I did not drive back to the studio on Thursday night or on Friday morning or on Friday afternoon. Jack Sanders can attest that I strongly considered coming in on Friday afternoon, even though I had two other podcast recordings that day. Because in the span of 72 to 96 hours, a lot has changed, including.
Amanda Dobbins
We should say, as of the moment we are recording. About an hour ago, Paramount launched its hostile bid to try to wrest control of the ownership of Warner Brothers or the sale of Warner Brothers from Netflix. So, you know, this is primarily a podcast about mergers and acquisitions and it.
Sean Fennessey
Is going to be now we're really.
Amanda Dobbins
Excited to get into that nitty gritty with you as masters of the universe.
So it is ever changing. But I think you're talking about how emotionally you needed some time to sit with it on Friday and informationally as well. Yes, sure.
Sean Fennessey
I wouldn't say I was pounding the pavement as a reporter, but I certainly talked to a lot of people in the business over the last three or four days. And, you know, I think we're have to balance this conversation between as much information and context as we can provide the listener who cares mostly about movies.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
And as much.
As we can convey about how we feel. So I do wanna start with how do you feel? You know, given everything that has transpired, but also taking into account maybe what Thursday night felt like.
Amanda Dobbins
Right. So there's the kind of like psych 101 prompt of if, if you could know the time and manner of your death, would you want to? No, but I'm like, I'm serious. And most people would say no. Right, because we are all going to die. That is part of the human condition. But there is something about how and when that changes your entire experience. And we are finding out how movies are going to not die and, and, but change dramatically.
Sean Fennessey
Dramatically.
Amanda Dobbins
And we have known that this is coming in many, in, in many situations. It, it is already happening. The way that we consume movies and the way that movies are made and distributed and conceptualized and consumed has been changing dramatically for 20 years. And we have known that it would not be the Hollywood of our, you know, of our childhood of the 90s for a long time. But we've just been kind of like, well, I wonder whether this will happen or this will happen. And there is something jarring about it being written down for you. Well, so actually it's going to be that Netflix buys it and they will honor all the existing distribution deals and then they will slowly cut down the windows and then your Movie theaters will be sold out. To watch it go, to have it literalized or mapped out.
Is bracing, if not surprising.
Sean Fennessey
I generally agree with you. Yeah, I think I had the same emotional reaction that I expected to have, which it felt like a very totalizing conclusion to that 20 year buildup that you're describing. That it felt like. Well, of course it is the company that represents the effect of destroying this thing that matters to us. Right. Even if they aren't solely responsible. And I have a lot of feelings about ultimately how we got here, that, you know, Netflix did a tremendous amount of work to destabilize theatrical movie going.
Amanda Dobbins
Yes.
Sean Fennessey
And so them taking over arguably the most historic existing standalone studio in Hollywood history and bringing it under its umbrella and you know, as you said, honoring its agreements all the way up until that no longer is necessary to do, felt very sad, very frustrating. It was useful, I think, to have even just 24 hours to kind of chew on it and think about it. You know, there were some immediate reactions to this news, which was on one side, a lot of people felt an enormous amount of relief because this meant if this were to hold, that Paramount would not get control. And if Paramount doesn't get control, then maybe perhaps the entire Warner Brothers studio is not enthralled to a Trump rubber stamped corporation that has the interests of the far right in mind. And additionally, if Paramount comes on in this hostile takeover and it'll also acquire the cable networks and so then it becomes this sort of like what feels like a state run social media ecosystem because then you're including cnn, you're including the news apparatus, you're combining that with cbs. In the case of Netflix, they're buying a movie studio and they're buying a streamer in hbo and that's really it. Now those are two huge things, but it doesn't have that Orwellian quality that some of the Paramount acquisition does. Now I think that's a very legitimate concern and I don't want to minimize it. It just isn't actually the focus of what we do. And also I will note, administrations do end. There's a very reasonable way to say, well, it'll be very easy for J.D. vance to continue on or Trump won't leave office and we could speculate about those things. That's not what the show does. I do think that in five years, if we are looking at a Democrat in office for the President and Paramount owns Warner Brothers, I'm not really even sure what the political effect of that is. It's hard to gauge what the impact would be, the Netflix side of it really mostly impacts the entertainment business. And everybody that I talked to over the weekend, who you could use the word creative to describe them, was really depressed about this and they weren't going to be happy about Paramount because it has the same effect, which is it just takes another studio off the board, another buyer off the board. It makes it a less robust economy.
Amanda Dobbins
Right. But I mean, it is consolidation. And so you are, you're losing jobs and you're probably just, you're losing jobs in the actual like studio sense of all the people that are employed by Paramount and Warner Brothers, but then also in the amount of movies made. And so that affects everyone who works on a film. That affects, you know, the downstream distribution, you know, theaters, which we'll get to. So it, I, you know, I understand that Paramount seemed like the quote, unquote, worst option and I think we were even sort of expecting it and we.
Sean Fennessey
Were, yeah, I was not expecting Netflix to win at all.
Amanda Dobbins
And also, you know, as of, as of this morning, like, you know, who can say in terms of how it's that's gonna turn out? But the Netflix of it all also just, it has that emotional, as you said, they have become the figurehead of.
Killing movies, even if it's all of the companies together that have done it. So there is something tidy, there is something like Aaron Sorkin esque about Netflix being the one to get Warner Brothers.
Sean Fennessey
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Amanda Dobbins
Let's, you know, let's spotlight that. Lucas Shaw reporting for a second, which is that Ted Sarandos, you know, has been at Mar a Lago. He was at the White House in November. There is obviously a difference between, like, the coalition of.
Saudi money and Jared Kushner money and, you know, David Ellison's and the Ellison family's, like, demonstrated history. But like. And also, this is what executives do. They cozy up to administrations. But, like, Sarandos and Trump have, quote, kept in touch, according to Bloomberg.
Sean Fennessey
I mean, there's no way for a deal like this to work without any sort of relationship, especially given the way that Trump navigates these kinds of mergers. And.
So there was, like, a real skepticism, a real hidden skepticism, because you can't support it. Like, we're just two people talking, but you can't get on a podcast or go jump into a newspaper and be like, there's a 0% chance this is happening. But that is how people that I spoke to felt about this.
Now, that seems even more true if it can be because of the hostile bid. And there was a lot of suggestion that a hostile takeover was very much a possibility as early as Friday morning. But now we're in this fugue state where we can look at what Netflix has done and we can say, okay, this is a fascinating strategy. On the one hand, if they win this bid and the hostile takeover fails, they get the best, most prestigious TV studio in the history of tv, basically, and they get to potentially plug it right into the Netflix system. And I'm sure Chris Nandy will spend a lot of time talking about that this morning on the Watch. And then they get to take Warner Brothers. Now, it's not just that they get to take the apparatus of Warner Brothers. They get everything that is Warner Brothers. So that includes Batman and Harry Potter and Lord of the Rings and. And Barbie and anything else you want that has been produced there. So this isn't just the home of Christopher Nolan and Clint Eastwood and Stanley Kubrick. It is the home of all of these characters. And the one thing Netflix hasn't been able to do is develop and continue IP for the long term. So if they get all of that stuff.
It'S kind of game over in Hollywood, at least in this particular sense, of streaming first being the most important thing. If Paramount gets it, it just becomes a bigger studio, and it just becomes this continuation, I think, of what has been happening in Hollywood over the last 10 years. Disney buys Fox for $71 billion. Amazon buys MGM for $8 billion. Skydance merges with Paramount for $8 billion. Those are like classical consolidations in a shrinking business. This is a checkmate. And you don't think so.
Amanda Dobbins
No, I, Yeah, I mean, it is, of course. I, you know, I did find like the hand wringing over like the sanctity of, you know, the DC universe is like franchising and like, you know, whatever. What are we gonna control clinches? What are we gonna do with Harry Potter? Well, Warner Brothers is already making another TV show. Listen. And also Universal owns those rights. Like there are amusement parks. I do. I understand that the IP means like money and merchandising and growth potential for Netflix in avenues that it doesn't have now, which then powers whatever else it wants to do, which is keep you watching Netflix on your streaming on your phone instead of going to movie theaters or watching YouTube. But, you know, again, that's like, what will happen to Batman is not like, I, it's gonna be okay.
Sean Fennessey
To me, it's. That's more just thought that's like the noose tightening moment. Because the one thing that Netflix couldn't really get over the line was they don't even have enough properties to consider opening a theme park.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
And now if they want to open the Netflix theme park that has Batman and Barbie rides on it, okay, they probably, I mean, I guess Batman is licensed right now to Six Flags or whatever, but over time that is something that they'll be able to do and then that allows them to become, I guess, like Disney and 1970s Paramount and 1980s Fox all at the same time. And that's really powerful. Yes. And to like a fascinating and somewhat crippling degree for everything else around it, like, Disney is still Disney. Universal is significantly wounded in the streaming wars, but is still one of the most successful, consistently successful studios in Hollywood and seems to be on fine ground.
Sony, Lionsgate and Paramount are much smaller now. Much smaller. Sony's had a particularly tricky couple of years. Lionsgate has fallen way back from the Hunger Games era.
Paramount, we'll see, they're going to spend no matter what. But it's going to be a little bit like a ripple in an ocean relative to what it could have been if they, if they are able to come back and hostilely take over this company. And so it's going to feel like Netflix and Disney run everything. And then I guess to a lesser extent, Amazon and Apple as these companies that are participating. But maybe it's not essential or ultimately consequential to their businesses whether they have success in this realm.
Amanda Dobbins
I. That was the case for Sony and Lionsgate, no matter what, you know, no matter, like, no matter who buys Warner Brothers.
Lionsgate has been limping along and Sony has been relying on its Netflix first deal in order to public that, you know, it's had some theatrical hits and also gave away K Pop Demon Hunters to Netflix. So, you know, I. It's bad, but I don't think that this deal. This deal is like reflecting the state of what's going on as opposed to the cause of some of it.
Sean Fennessey
I think that's right on the money. Let's talk about theatrical. This is the thing that.
Most meaningfully affects me. Yeah. And you as well.
Amanda Dobbins
Well, no, there's one more, actually, that more meaningfully affects you.
Sean Fennessey
I have a lot of thoughts about physical media.
Amanda Dobbins
I do know.
Sean Fennessey
I've done my homework.
Amanda Dobbins
We'll talk about it. Some of your homework. I have some questions for you.
Sean Fennessey
Okay. Theatrical.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
That was the first thing that Ted Sarandos was pressed on on Friday morning during a conference call with investors. And. And he had some thoughts. He said, my pushback has been mostly in the fact of the long, exclusive windows, which we don't really think are that consumer friendly. He's referring, of course, to the fact that when films open in theaters, they usually run for Warner Brothers 30, 40 days. 15 years ago, they ran 70, 80, 100 days. 40 years ago, they ran nine months.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay, okay, Grandpa.
Sean Fennessey
They're shrinking. They're shrinking. My point is. They're shrinking. They're shrinking. When I was alive in 1987, a film could play for seven years, and now 12 days, and then onto Netflix. And, you know, his comments indicate that over time, that is what would happen. It's not confirming the fact that. But. So this has a very obvious effect, right? Yeah. The effect of this is if you start making the windows 14 days. So you open a film, you open Batman 2, Matt Reeves, Batman 2. And it plays for two weeks.
Amanda Dobbins
My most anticipated film. He finally finished the script, you know.
Sean Fennessey
Right. Who knows? Maybe it won't be that film. Maybe it'll be another film in a few years. That movie plays for two weeks. The Die Hards, of course, go. They go. They see it in Dolby, they see it in IMAX. They see it on 70 millimeter, they see it in 40x. You know, the largest premium formats are rolling, but Joe and Jane Moviegoer are like two. Two weeks. And then on Netflix.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
The same way they did with Frankenstein. You know, the same way that they did. The same way they are doing with Knives Out. The same way that they are maybe not even doing with J. Kelly. And they get in the habit of saying, I'm Good. I'll wait. Because it's logical to wait. It's logical to not spend $118.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Carve out a whole night.
Amanda Dobbins
So Matt Reeves is the Batman 2 is an interesting example because this also happened to Matt Reeves's the Batman one, and that was because of Project Popcorn and Covid. But I, you know, you could see the Batman very soon after. It was.
Sean Fennessey
It was not day and day.
Amanda Dobbins
It wasn't day and day, but it was more quickly. It was. It was limit. You know, the window was closed. And it was more of an experiment in trying to get things to people because of the way that Covid and theaters.
Changed availability. So I. I know.
I, like, I don't want to be. I don't agree with Ted Sarandos, but I do think that, like, oh, we must protect the windows. The windows are the most important thing. It's like a lost cause. And I don't think it's productive to pretend like, movie theaters are in a good spot and the business is working and that the. The customer should bear the responsibility of fixing it, because I agree with you. You know, it is. It's just like, things have changed and it is so expensive and it's so often not a good experience, and, like, the cat is out of the bag. So I do think that Netflix cutting down the window will exacerbate and speed up something that was already going to happen. And I think it. Also, my main concern is that it then, if you're making films and deciding what films to make based on the fact that they will have a limited theatrical reaction and then be on Netflix, it changes the type of film that you make, and it changes how. So do you think we have seen that? Well, you know, I think it changes.
The type of filmmakers that you give a huge budget to to do a. A big act, you know, like a big theatrical run, it's gotta have, quote, unquote, like, event potential, whether it is, you know, Batman and IP or whether.
Sean Fennessey
It'S a movie that can open really.
Amanda Dobbins
Big, like a big spectacle, which, again, that is already the trend across the studios that we're seeing in films. Because that is the only way, as we understand, that you can get the average person to the movie theater. But I think you just get more polarity. Right.
Sean Fennessey
We're gonna see a test run of this with Greta Gerwig's Narnia film. That will be actually the first proper test because that will have an exclusive, limited IMAX theatrical run, and that will indicate maybe somewhat what the appetite is for that kind of experience, even though, you know, in three or four weeks it will hit the service.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, and that's also like, we've talked about this a bunch. Like, why is Greta Garwig make Gerwig making a Narnia movie? I mean, she wants to and that if she wants to, that's great. And she makes a lot of money.
Sean Fennessey
But that is my theory about why. Why is that she is consistently exploring her youth and adolescence and her fascinations in those times, which I think is very common for many great filmmakers.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, I do also, but that is. That's quote, unquote, ip.
Sean Fennessey
Right?
Amanda Dobbins
That is. And so that is a filmmaker who I have responded to more. Listen, I loved Barbie, but my rankings are still Lady Bird number one, Little Women number two by a smidgen. And then Barbie. And then. So you already see, like, beloved independent generational filmmakers moving towards IP in order to get like the big Netflix release as opposed to their smaller budget stuff. Now, that's not to say that the next one. You know, Netflix does have a history of letting filmmakers we really love make their, you know, blank check movies.
Sean Fennessey
Yes.
Amanda Dobbins
Sometimes those blank check movies aren't as good as the other movies, which is another issue.
Sean Fennessey
You know, I thought about this recently.
I delivered a tribute to the mid level studio executive some years ago. Not the top studio executive, the mid level development executive.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay.
Sean Fennessey
The person who works specifically on movies with filmmakers. Now, these figures are historically maligned. They are people who get in the way of creative people. Don't let them do the things that they want to do. They tend to be surrogates for the audience and what the audience will respond to. And sometimes they're wrong and sometimes they're right. And sometimes the friction in that work creates good films. And one thing that you see at Netflix is in a tremendous amount of creative freedom for filmmakers when they're working on these projects that you're describing. So much so that I find that sometimes those films lose their way. There's a lot of discussion of, like, what were the best Netflix movies over the last seven or eight or nine years. You know, Marriage Story.
Amanda Dobbins
There are Roma, the End.
Sean Fennessey
There are good films. There are more good films than that, but Triple Frontier. But it's not as many as you would imagine, given this carte blanche attitude that they give to Irishman. Yeah, there's. There's a. There's a. There's a bunch. There's. They've made four.
Amanda Dobbins
I got four. Almost one full hit just this year.
Sean Fennessey
They've made a bunch of Good movies.
Amanda Dobbins
That's true. Or they acquired them. In the case of Train Dreams. Yes, let's rephrase. Let's say notes are good. We love notes.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah, I think so.
Amanda Dobbins
Within reason.
Sean Fennessey
I mean, I think boundaries historically are good in the movie business. You know, this isn't painting. Like, it is a commercial art form.
Amanda Dobbins
So I don't think that we need to be, like, defending executives on this podcast. I just would like to.
Sean Fennessey
I think I'm indicating.
Amanda Dobbins
I personally would like to distance myself from this.
Sean Fennessey
It's another potential outcome, though, of if this in fact transpires that you continue to, like, lose another part of the business, that even if it wasn't the most glamorous or interesting or even defensible part of the business did exist and maybe movies the way that they were for so long, and it's one of the reasons why movies are not the same as they were. So that's one impact. The other thing about the theatrical aspect of it is that Sarandos has had this interesting stretch of kind of contradicting himself. And I don't think it's purposeful. I think there's an evolution in the business that they're pursuing. For years, they said they wouldn't do live. For years, they said they wouldn't do sports. For years, they said they would only do binge drops and they wouldn't change their release model. For years they said they wouldn't put anything in theaters. For years, they said they wouldn't do things like imax. They do all that stuff now. That's all happening now. So, as I said, when we talked about this on the Sentimental Value episode, it wouldn't stun me if in a year, Netflix bought Regal, you know, like that, if the laws were able to change and studios could own it. There's so much business and money to be made in another Barbie movie, in a Batman movie. There's a lot of money to be made in that business still, even though things have changed and they're not as good as they used to be. You know, look at Zootopia 2 right now. It made $900 million in two weekends, right? That's incredibly, incredibly powerful. So there's a world where he once again contradicts himself. As recently as 2024, he said that he thought that Barbie and Oppenheimer would be as big a phenomenon if they went straight to streaming. If that's just a crazy thing to.
Amanda Dobbins
Say out loud, you know, that you can't trust anything that an executive says at all times. And the NH street, they are like getting paid more than you to lie to you. Like, that's fine. That's.
Sean Fennessey
He's paid more than I am. That's not fair.
Amanda Dobbins
That's okay.
I think that you're right that they have consistently updated their business. You know, and I have wondered.
Sean Fennessey
You.
Amanda Dobbins
Know, the thing that we have not really said in this is that movie theaters are not really Netflix's rival this point. It's YouTube.
Sean Fennessey
That's right.
Amanda Dobbins
And they are just trying to get as many people as possible to look at their streaming Service instead of YouTube. Otherwise their stock goes down and they can't pay back all of the people that invested billions of dollars in them. So I am beginning to wonder whether, like there's got to be a ceiling on the number of subscribers that they can reasonably expect. And so once they hit that, they have to keep adding new revenue streams.
Sean Fennessey
Yes.
Amanda Dobbins
So maybe this is, you know, a way for them to like start making money, whether it's through amusement parks or through the theatrical. And they just need additional sources of income because they aren't going to be able to keep growing subscriber wise.
Sean Fennessey
In a quiet moment of positivity over the weekend. That is the exact thought that I had, which is it's going to be impossible to go from 300 million subscribers, which they currently have, in addition to tacking on whatever modest incremental bump you're going to get from adding HBO's 130 million, most of which already have the service. Yeah, you're not going to get to 700 million subscribers. Like that's not something that's going to happen. So inevitably there is a ceiling, there is a plateau moment. And in the past they've been told that they've plateaued and then they've gone up again. They've added new items, new offerings. This is, this is like one of the shrewdest entertainment companies in the history of the human life. Like they truly consistently are. Like, we have another thing that will help us continue to grow and this is the, you know, the, maybe the biggest step yet. But you're right that they're going to have to find other ways to make money. And movie theaters, at least for now, could be that I don't think it's like the long term solution to, to the point that you were making before. Like we have been watching this slowly, if not die off, just evolve into a different kind of and much smaller business. I think back to May 2024. I did my like solo into camera thing post furiosa box Office weekend, you know.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sean Fennessey
And I was trying to not freak out in that, in that essay. I was trying to say, let's just keep our head downs and like, go see movies. It's a little harder to send that message now to just be like, just keep your head down and just keep seeing, just keep supporting films. Keep, keep watching movies.
Amanda Dobbins
Right. Well, to this audience, to people who have listened this far into a podcast and who care about films and going to see movies and who are cinephiles. They're not, we're not going to like single handedly save the business because we're, we're the, the niche market and money can be made off of us.
Sean Fennessey
But yeah, so I, Seth Rogen in the studio meme, you know, I'm single handedly saving movies.
Amanda Dobbins
But I do think if you care about movies and you like going to movies, sure, keep, keep going to movies. Like, I, I don't, I don't think that's terribly bad advice. What else, what else would you say to the aspiring cinephile to help fight, you know, the, the M and A Raiders?
Sean Fennessey
I mean, you, you will not win. So, yeah, don't worry about winning. I think just support the things that you like is obviously the best thing to do.
This did have me thinking a little bit sociologically and anthropologically though, about what Netflix is and how they have gotten to this place. And I do think that that's worth exploring a little bit because to me, it is really about this soft exploitation of convenience and the theatrical experience is connected to that. Because originally when this company came around, I was very excited because the idea of getting three DVDs.
Of a vast library of films at my home in the mail without having to leave my home, and I could keep them for as long as I want. That was an amazing service. It did kill video stores, which is something I cared about, but they were already dying and this just sped up that process. Likewise, binge watching 12 hours of your favorite show all at once in one night. And you can watch it. And before I had a child, I would comfortably watch six hours of television in a row. I will never do that again. But that was a fascinating thing to get. I think we're all kind of burnt out on that model now, and Netflix even seems to be a little bit burnt out on that model. But that was another convenience that was extraordinary. I don't have to, not only do I not have commercials, but I don't have to wait. Like I can just click through to the next episode and that that was convenience. That was an exploitation of something that we, we didn't even really know we wanted or could have and they found it.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, I, I mean, I think that that is putting a little bit too much responsibility again on us as I.
Sean Fennessey
Think humans are weak, man. I'm weak, sure.
Amanda Dobbins
But I think corporations suck. Like, I would still like to blame the corporation rather the human being. Like what you describe for tv.
Sean Fennessey
I am using the word exploitation.
Amanda Dobbins
We don't care about, I personally don't care about the art of television. Like, I enjoy it, but it's not, you know, cinema is the art to me. So to me they just like made it a better experience until they did it. You know, it's like if they made a good show that was easier to watch, I was like, great. That sounds really the crown. Loving it, you know, at least the first five seasons. Don't know what happened in season six.
Sean Fennessey
Okay.
Amanda Dobbins
I mean it just, it was really. They caught up with the modern times.
Sean Fennessey
I'll never know.
Amanda Dobbins
But they just, they made the customer experience better. Like, and I think that trying to, I think ignoring that does not.
Is part of the problem. It's not going to help us get people back to what we want.
Sean Fennessey
I think it's reasonable to ask the question, did they make the customer experience movies better though because.
They dramatically increased the convenience of movie delivery for new films. And you know, like, Ava DuVernay talked about this a lot in the first half of the huge Netflix rise. She talked a lot about how in a lot of communities in America there just are not movie theaters or there's not a convenient way to get to a movie theater or an affordable way to get to a movie theater. And so a studio like Netflix that prizes coming to streaming first for, you know, X dollars per month is a way to just deliver more art, more cheaply and more easily to a lot more people.
Amanda Dobbins
I think we have a lot of listeners who feel that way. Yeah, that. And it's not because they prefer watching a movie at home. It's because it's a lot harder to see a lot of these titles. You know, smaller things. Train Dreams is a great example which would be like a very small windowed limited release if it were Sony Pictures Classics and instead is available to everyone.
Sean Fennessey
It's true. The knock on effect of that is that you sure you didn't drive to the movie theater and pay $72 plus parking, plus get a sitter, plus your craft cocktail and your caramel popcorn to check out what you hope is not a shitty Ryan Reynolds movie. Yeah, but then you just get to watch the shitty Ryan Reynolds movie on Netflix at home. But the lack of experience and the sedentary quality of watching things at home. Yeah, it minimizes its emotional impact.
Amanda Dobbins
You just yada yadaed like 150 to $200, though, which is like an incredibly material part of this. Like, it is wildly expensive to go to the movies. I cannot believe how much a bucket of popcorn costs.
Sean Fennessey
But this is not like a popcorn public trust. It's a hobby. Like, if you want to participate in the hobby, it costs money. Like, it's as simple as that.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, but it costs $25 for a Netflix subscription versus 200 a pop.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah, you're making my point. This is the soft exploitation of convenience. That's what it is.
Amanda Dobbins
It's also just. It's economics. People don't have $200 to go to. It's so. It's crazy how expensive it is.
Sean Fennessey
I totally understand.
Amanda Dobbins
And the more, like, the more convenient or the more affordable Netflix got, like, the more expensive movies have gotten. Like, what kind of business is that? Like, here now your water's 12 dol dollars. Like, it's, you know, I understand there are a lot of things at play, but it's really, really, really expensive. And so are groceries, and so are a lot of other things. And it's just like, it is a bad business. They can't get out of, like, their leases. Like, they can't get out of their lot of stuff. But you really cannot discount it. It is expensive.
Sean Fennessey
I agree. I'm not disagree. You're making my point for me.
Amanda Dobbins
I think that's like exploiting convenience. I think that's just like a reality of, you know.
Sean Fennessey
Of course it is. What do you mean?
Amanda Dobbins
I think that's condescending. I think that that's because people, like, don't. Don't have that much money.
Sean Fennessey
I think you're misunderstanding how systems work. Then. Like, to me, this is what every smart business does, is that they come in and they look at what people don't have and they try to give them what they want for less money than they think. The thing is, if a deal like this goes through, let's check in on what a Netflix subscription costs in five years, because it won't be what it costs right now. And over time, they will continue to shift the financials to make this like Cable Television was 10, 20 years ago when you would wake up one day and open up your cable TV bill and it was $250. And I remember that being incredibly bracing for my parents. And they were like, when did this happen and how did this happen? And all of a sudden it became, well, you have the standard package and you have the movie package, and, oh, you need broadband, WI fi. And also we have this additional channel that you might want. And there's an upsell there for 1299. This is what will happen. Like, this is the way that they, like, essentially reconnect the revenue stream over time.
Amanda Dobbins
That's true. And that's true of every single Silicon Valley business model where they give you something very cheaply and then they ratchet the price of overtime. I just don't think that you can, like, the movie theaters have not responded in any meaningful way. And I like, it's not defensible to ask people to spend $200 to go to the moon. Like, it's just. That's fine. It can be a hobby for some people, but that's not viable.
Sean Fennessey
I agree with you. I'm not. I'm not disagreeing. I mean, the thing is that there are still a lot of people who are willing to go. It's just that they're not willing to go. Yeah, 30 times a year. They're willing to go five times a year. And so I don't know if there's a way where the business itself can kind of reorient where that is allowable. You know, like we're.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Sean Fennessey
To your point about, like, leases and this, like, established economy of multiplexes.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
That thing that grew over time from 1985 through 2005, that is not manageable. And so I do think you'll see, like a knock on effect over time. If Netflix goes through, if Paramount doesn't go through. It's kind of interesting, like, what happens to theatrical. Because Paramount will start making. Even though they'll make fewer movies when they were two separate studios.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
Their focus is gonna be on theatrical. You know that pumping up Paramount and making theatrical work is kind of a core part of the business. It is the core part of the business.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Whether or not they can be successful at that, like, maybe that actually augurs even more failure in the theatrical business if their movies don't work. We don't know. There's not a ton of history of Skydance having great taste beyond Tom Cruise movies.
Amanda Dobbins
That's true. And even those. It's really, you know, Top Gun, Maverick, they sat on it. They would not release it during the pandemic. They were right in that one. And then every single Mission Impossible sense has been Sort of soft.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah.
Amanda Dobbins
And has lost its IMAX screens pretty quickly to another. Another big name director.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. So there's no. You could make the case that if, if Netflix is true to their word, which is that they're going to keep Warner Brothers film studio as a separate and distinct business and release their movies in theaters for let's say, 10 years. I'm not saying they're going to do that, but let's just say for the sake of conversation that that could be a better outcome. There's a case that that's a better outcome from a pure film going experience.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure. But then the world's on fire in many other ways because it's what it means of who owns both movie studios and then CNN and everything else.
Sean Fennessey
So in the hostile takeover bid, David Ellison and family corralled the Saudis, the Qataris Emirates and Jared Kushner's hedge fund to chip in money for over $100 billion hostile takeover bid.
Getting a strong. I'm sorry, I didn't mean to distract you.
So who have you called to raise.
Amanda Dobbins
Money.
To be a part of the hostile motor? For my own.
Sean Fennessey
No, you're independent. On.
Amanda Dobbins
Do you feel that you are more of a merger and acquisition? Just, you know, a merger or an acquisition? Yeah, just spiritually.
Sean Fennessey
I think we'd all like to be an acquisition and we are all a merger. You know, unless you really can be an acquirer, then you're a merger.
Amanda Dobbins
I called business Chris Ryan and we're just going to start our own network and livestream movie studio where we release the new Geese albums and then analyze what's going on with the various funds on a real time basis.
Sean Fennessey
Okay, that sounds like a good show.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. But it'll also be an imax.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah, I don't. I.
The ideal outcome remains what we said a few weeks ago, which is some person emerges from the shadows, some sent a billionaire and says, I have made my billions in shipping and I love film and I want film to continue on in just the way it did.
Amanda Dobbins
I think that it should be subject to tariffs at the ports.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah, that's a whole other story. And that person needs to be cozied up to the Trump administration, but also very agreeable to us politically. So this magical, impossible person will come along and that's just not gonna happen. Okay.
Amanda Dobbins
I don't know, can you run it out until.
No. This deal has to close before 2028, right?
Sean Fennessey
It does, because there is, well, there is a $5 billion penalty for Netflix if after two and a half years plus six months, the deal doesn't close, which is right up to three the nose. I think there's like a six month waiting period that's indicated in the, in the, in the deal offer from Netflix. But you know, $5 billion is an insane penalty. But I actually think that Netflix is really smart. And the reason why I said it was a win win earlier is because, yeah, sure, maybe they get this. Maybe they get this and they, they, they end the streaming wars officially. Right. They rise to victory. They slowly take over the movie watching experience in America. Or maybe they don't. Maybe they do end up paying the penalty. But two and a half to three years go by and Warner Brothers exists in this kind of amber. Yeah. Where they're like, they're making their movies and everything that's been greenlit and everything that's franchise and safe is going forward. But Mike DeLuca and Pam Abdy are not authorized to fund one battle after another. And maybe they can't make a deal that Ryan Coogler has an ownership stake in sinners after 25 years because there's going to be an acquisition and that goes against the precedent that's expected for their future owner. Maybe they don't look to acquire or merge with another company. That could be a better situation six to 12 months from now because they're in this holding pattern of evaluation by the government and other corporations. So it kind of just kneecaps WB for a while.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, I mean WB has already kneecapped itself. Let's just.
Sean Fennessey
But look at what it did at.
Amanda Dobbins
The movie this year, you know, that they're doing. Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
They were able to at least take risks because they were independent.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
And say what you want about David Zaslav. I don't think he's done a very good job at all. He's the, over the last few years.
Amanda Dobbins
You know, the high commander of the Christmas adventurers himself, Southwest Division.
Sean Fennessey
Very much so. And, but, but he did hire Mike and Pam and they did make those movies, you know, and I, and he, he kept Casey Bloys in his job. And HBO continues to be great. Like they continue to be HBO. Despite everything that's fucking happened over the last 20 years. It's still like, yeah, we got task, we got chair company, we still are making the coolest shows.
Amanda Dobbins
That's true. Creatively, the output has been positive. But then he has driven the financials that make the creative possible off a cliff while paying himself a tremendous amount of money.
Sean Fennessey
A lot of the advantage has been pivoted in his direction. There's some speculation over the last few days, specifically that he has been lobbying for a role in whatever new company takes on his business, and that could be a factor. That is just something that I have heard and can either confirm nor deny the HBO part very quickly, since we are neither experts nor are we the TV podcast. But it is interesting because I don't really understand the idea of keeping those businesses separate. And we've heard that as well, that HBO would be its own entity.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
Why would you want to bounce around from one streaming service to another? Would HBO just become a tile inside of Netflix?
Amanda Dobbins
I think there's been a lot of discussion recently about how Amazon uses the tiles for all the other streaming services, and that's been a boon to their business. Okay. And, you know, another revenue stream, like, how many?
Sean Fennessey
So it'd be an add on.
Amanda Dobbins
I think so, yeah.
Sean Fennessey
It gets you more money to the point I was making about, you know, the. The bump in subscription rate. But I wonder, do you think it will tilt Netflix's programing strategy towards more, like, basic cable style? Like more reality, more sports?
Amanda Dobbins
Yes.
Sean Fennessey
More tv?
Amanda Dobbins
Well, it's already tilted that way.
Sean Fennessey
It is, but, like, do you need adolescence on Netflix if you have hbo? Do you? Because you're not these. Those two companies are no longer bidding against each other for the property. So will anything that is quote unquote, good will Department Q go on Netflix, or will it?
Amanda Dobbins
I. I think. I mean, I wonder. I do wonder whether HBO gets, like, slightly more breadth. I mean, their. Their mandate. And remember when they were also in charge of making the Max shows? Sex Lives of College Girl Forget. Had a great time, Pauline.
Sean Fennessey
Shalom. Sure.
Amanda Dobbins
But so, so, so their. Their breadth of programming has shifted depending on who's in charge and what they're programming for. And I, you know, I believe in Casey Boyce's ability to maneuver appropriately.
Sean Fennessey
I do as well. More podcasts on the. On the platform, you think?
Amanda Dobbins
Don't even get me started.
Sean Fennessey
Let's talk about physical media.
Amanda Dobbins
I'd love to.
Sean Fennessey
Okay.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay.
Sean Fennessey
I'm fine.
Amanda Dobbins
Good.
Sean Fennessey
I'm fine.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay.
Sean Fennessey
I'm gonna lay it out for you.
Amanda Dobbins
Yes.
Sean Fennessey
Netflix does not have a physical media operation.
Amanda Dobbins
I'm aware.
Sean Fennessey
They have licensed a select handful of titles to the Criterion Collection. Okay, that's it. Okay, that's it. This flies completely in the face of their primary business model.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
Which is streaming.
Amanda Dobbins
Right. So their current primary business model, because once upon a time, their business model, as you noted, was letting you keep three DVDs in your house for as.
Sean Fennessey
Long as possible, yes. Distributing but not producing social media. Five years ago a company was formed called Studio Distribution Services. Are you familiar with this company?
Amanda Dobbins
I read your outline.
Sean Fennessey
Okay, so it's an American home entertainment company that's co owned 5050 between Universal and Warner Brothers.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay.
Sean Fennessey
This is the company that produces all the discs and distributes all the discs for those two studios. In recent years they've also brought on other partners. Sony now works with sds. Neon now works with SDS Shout Factory, which is one of the very best American distributors. Your beautiful bring it on 4K was made by Shout Factory.
Amanda Dobbins
Did Shout Factory also do the five hours of trailers?
Sean Fennessey
No.
Amanda Dobbins
Who was that?
Sean Fennessey
That's Fun City Editions. That's a much smaller company, but also very good. Anyway, Shout Factory also just completely. They closed their own website and they now use the distribution services website groove.com that SDS owns a lot of the American production of major studio blu ray. And 4ks is going to SDS. 50% of it is owned by Warner Brothers. So the question here is, will that continue? Warner Brothers and Universal has a ten year agreement to do this together.
Amanda Dobbins
When does it expire?
Sean Fennessey
In 2030. Okay, so you can make the case that maybe they just run it out until the completion of this deal. Yeah, you can make the case that this is a new business model for Netflix as well.
Amanda Dobbins
I have thought about that. As I said to you when this was first announced and you said, oh no, what about my Blu Rays?
They do have a history of merchandising in other areas. Meghan Markle has a jam and homewares company that is underwritten entirely by Netflix. When you order the jam, it says produced by. And then it's the liter. It's the Sunset Boulevard address of Netflix. Like they are making these. There are stranger things, you know.
Sean Fennessey
Yes.
Amanda Dobbins
Sweatshirts and furbies and whatever.
Sean Fennessey
At the Egyptian next door, the Egyptian Theater in Los Angeles, there is a Netflix store or you can buy their.
Amanda Dobbins
Exactly.
Jafar Panahi
So.
Amanda Dobbins
So they are making things to be sold. So there's no reason.
To say that if it could be a financial boon to them that they would like be against it. And I do think that they are in need of money.
Sean Fennessey
I agree with you.
Amanda Dobbins
But it does undercut. I know, they just, they want you on your phone.
Sean Fennessey
It's not just that though. There's one other component of this that I think is notable in terms of what this deal means. Part of the reason why Netflix doesn't like theaters or want theaters is because they have to share money with theaters. The Warner Brothers Deal is a way to continue to centralize and kind of like significantly close the loop on who gets to participate in the revenue generated by Netflix. Warner Brothers has to split 50, 50 or 6040 on most movies that go into movie theaters. If you don't go to movie theaters, you keep all the profits for yourself in terms of the revenue generated by the memberships and subscriptions. Blu Rays, likewise, if this is a company that is owned 50 50. I don't know what the dynamics are between who gets what money from what Blu Ray production, but this is another partner. They're closing all deals on partners. They're no longer going to be licensing any of the content from Warner Brothers because they're going to own it over time. They're not going to need to license very much at all if they have Warner Brothers. So it does make me a little.
Amanda Dobbins
Bit skeptical, though they may then keep licensing out the Warner Brothers stuff. That's been, in a sense.
Sean Fennessey
That's an open question, right? Yes, that's an open question. Whether or not they would then license their content to other companies. They've never done that before. You can't watch a Netflix show on any other service right now, as far as I know. And so that would be a change as well. We're talking about a world where a lot of changes. If no changes happen, if it's just like everything's going under Netflix and there's no more movies going into movie theaters, I'm gonna freak out. Yeah, I actually. I actually am gonna freak out.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure. I like, I will too. It will be in a different way. Yeah, but, you know, that would suck.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. I will go walk into the desert.
Amanda Dobbins
It. That would really suck. I. I mean, I do. My question for you about physical media is less about your ability to have steelbooks in your garage and more about what those smaller labels do in terms of preservation and things that have historically been buried in libraries and archives being available and how that works long term. Like, you can't. To your point, you can't get a Netflix movie anywhere, like, from any other service. You also, like, can't rent it from the library.
Sean Fennessey
Right? Well, I'll use an example.
Amanda Dobbins
They're not on Canopy.
Sean Fennessey
I'll use an example from the Unboxing Boy video that came out over the weekend. One of the items that Eileen got for me was a new leaf. And like a beautiful edition of Elaine May's a new leaf. It's a 4K of the movie, which had not previously been available in that format. It was released by a company called Cinematograph, which is a subsidiary of Vinegar Syndrome, which is one of the biggest independent distributors of Blu Rays. A New Leaf was licensed from Paramount. Let's say A New Leaf was a Warner Brothers movie. My gut tells me Cinematograph would not have rights to license that title. And I don't know who is responsible for restoring and now preserving the 4K upgrade of the movie. But is Netflix going to care about that? Is that the kind of work that they're going to do? Warner Brothers in particular has Warner Archive, which is arguably the best, just kind of like historical churn amount system that we have where they're just like, look at the list of films that they've made, the hundreds and hundreds of movies that they've made over the last hundred years. And they'll be like, what about this cowboy movie from 1939? This is kind of. This is of note. People will want to own this and they'll produce a version of it. Maybe they only sell 500 copies, but there are just. Just go to warnerarchive.com sure. And look at everything that they've made.
Amanda Dobbins
Related. Except for Steelbooks. Warner Brothers also has Turner Classic Movies.
Sean Fennessey
Yes.
Amanda Dobbins
Which according to Deadline is, is going to be a part of the Warner Brothers Netflix that, that I googled.
Sean Fennessey
Is that the sole channel that would.
Amanda Dobbins
Be moving over as opposed to the Discovery?
Sean Fennessey
So that's another tile essentially on.
Amanda Dobbins
I guess so. But you know, that is currently a television network and festival and program that does a lot of surfacing of the amazing Warner Brothers catalog and history and programming that will now be under the control of Netflix. So how. And what will they do? What is their commitment to preservation and historical programming?
Sean Fennessey
And it's funny that that experience actually always, I think made more sense to people on television. Like Paul Thomas Anderson talks about how it's always on in his house, that you just go into his house. It's just TCM all the time. Whereas, like it's actually hard to get people to press play on an old movie. Like a movie, like a black and white movie on streaming.
Amanda Dobbins
I mean it's the old Saw about. You're just clicking through Netflix for 20 minutes because you can't pick what to actually watch. But TCM just pressed Play for you and I was like, no, check this out. What about this old cowboy movie from the. Something. What about, you know, xyz?
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. So the truth is, is that we just don't know with physical media. And I don't want to. There, there is a, an optimistic look at it. There is a way to say, well, this company exists. They're not going to disband it because of this agreement that they have. The work that they're doing right now is pretty cool. Like, stuff is on sale all the time on groove.com, like, it's. It's actually more affordable than going to a movie. It's like F1 is like 11.99 to own on 4K forever. That's part of my point of this is like, if, like a. If a plane hits a server somewhere and knocks out everything that's backed up on Netflix, like, you. We might lose stuff. Like, we might lose stuff in perpetuity.
Amanda Dobbins
I get it in the larger, like, Library of Alexandria sense, I get it again, like your ability to buy plastic. Is it like they're.
Sean Fennessey
I'm not buying plastic, I'm buying movies. They're connected.
Amanda Dobbins
They're connected. But you know that I. And I understand that you drive the market that then enables film preservation long term, like I do. Sure. But you are also just like, doing your own version of ethical consumption over capitalism. And it's fine. I like buying stuff too, you know.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah.
Amanda Dobbins
So.
Sean Fennessey
But what I am doing contributes to artists and has emotional utility.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay, that's great. I also contribute to artists.
Sean Fennessey
They're just, you know, such as teacup makers.
Amanda Dobbins
No one has gotten me that teacup yet.
Sean Fennessey
Okay, let's do like a brass tax closing on this discussion because this has been robust.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay.
Sean Fennessey
Do you think this is actually gonna happen? You think Netflix is going to buy Warner Brothers Discovery?
Amanda Dobbins
I have no idea.
Sean Fennessey
What do you want me make a call?
Amanda Dobbins
I mean, I guess not.
Sean Fennessey
Okay.
Amanda Dobbins
They've tried a lot of. They've tried to buy a lot of different things over the years. You know, I'd heard they wanted to be the kings of video games or whatever. They try to get me to play a game every time I opened that app. So far, struck out. So I think both from like a historical. They've tried a lot of things. It's obviously pretty legally tricky.
No one but David Zaslav and Ted Sarandos seem excited about this. And I guess Ted Sarandos lieutenants.
So you then have to wonder, will, would people want to even work there? That. Not in the employee sense, but filmmakers.
Sean Fennessey
So I have thought about that a little bit. It's really hard to say because there's going to be only a couple of games in town at this point, so. And Netflix, to its credit, by dint of that freedom and budget, has been able to draw in the best Filmmakers alive. Like, they've really had very little trouble. There's a handful of people now. We did hear that the DGA issued a note about their concern over this. And I have seen people speculate, like, if Christopher Nolan kind of rallied the troops and they really dug their heels on the ground, which is not something that DGA historically does, but if they did, that would be interesting to watch the outcome of that. Because Chris Nolan does not want to be on Netflix. No, Absolutely not. That's not something he want. Denis Villeneuve does not want to be on Netflix. Like, there are filmmakers I think he's.
Amanda Dobbins
Got to be real mad about.
Sean Fennessey
Well, who's making James Bond.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure. For Amazon.
Sean Fennessey
He's off to elsewhere.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure.
Sean Fennessey
They'll go on Netflix eventually, but they don't want to be on Netflix to start. And that feels. That's not going to change the deal, but it's going to change what you're describing, which is like, a certain band of artists will be like, we don't work with those guys.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure.
Sean Fennessey
We'll see.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure. And on the. On the other hand, or maybe on the same hand, to quote one of our favorite films, like, never underestimate a motivated, angry rich person or a motivated, angry, you know, son of a rich person.
They seem.
Sean Fennessey
That's what I think's gonna happen.
Amanda Dobbins
They came ready to play.
Sean Fennessey
I think it's going to be Paramount. I think it's gonna take two and a half to three years, but I do think it's gonna be Paramount.
Amanda Dobbins
I agree. Well, I think we'll have a lovely time.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. They can afford to wait it out. It's gonna be messy. I promise to not make this show a weekly update on this story. I promise.
Amanda Dobbins
That sounds great.
Sean Fennessey
I did think that this conversation was.
Amanda Dobbins
Back to business school so that I can do, like, my weekly case studies here. That'll be my homework. Direct to camera.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. I think no matter what.
Netflix has done something very smart for them.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
You know that this move, whether it handicaps Warner Brothers in some way or puts Paramount in a state of tremendous disrepair and puts them in thrall to all of their partners in a way, which is a whole other domino effect that we can talk about down the road. It keeps them in pole position in a fascinating way. And.
I guess we'll continue following the story. Can I close with my strong take about this?
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. Which I agree.
Sean Fennessey
Do you agree with what I do?
Amanda Dobbins
And I'm going to go further. You start. Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Even though I would not be happy with the Netflix outcome, this isn't really Netflix's fault. This is the fault of every major studio over the last 25 years that has thrown itself in with globalization in the movie business. And roughly mid-90s, late-90s, when there was this dawning realization that international box office could be more profitable and more valuable to the company at large, largely corporately held than domestic box office, you saw a dramatic shift in the kinds of movies that were being made and the focus. And over that 30 year period, more franchises, more recognizable IP, more figures who could play overseas, more films that are less dependent on people and more dependent on concept. And so we have witnessed.
The ultimate consequence of chasing more dollars in favor of the stability of what moviemaking is meant to represent. Now you could make the case that that's just the evolution of any art form in any business. But there was an alternative path here.
Amanda Dobbins
I mean, I agree and I would just go further and say, you know, we live in hell. And the rapacious need for growth in every industry, unrelenting forever and ever, is decimating all of our institutions and our way of life.
Sean Fennessey
Yes, I, I hope this is not perceived as an ethnocentric take, that American movies should stay American. That isn't my point. My point is that only certain kinds of movies will play all over the world and generate several billion dollars in revenue. And that that changed what movies were. So whenever we whinge about what happened to comedies, what happened to mid tier dramas, why aren't there movies for adults, all that stuff that shit doesn't play overseas. That's why they don't get made. The reason why rom coms work on Netflix is because Netflix has filled that gap in terms of consumption. People still want those movies. They just don't want them around the world in the exact same way. And that is the thing that desecrated the movie going experience. It's not the money, it's not how much it costs, it's not even the convenience machine that Netflix built that we're talking about here. It was the desire to grow, grow, grow, grow, grow, grow, grow for 30 plus years and essentially spiking its own, in its, in its own end zone. And it's.
Amanda Dobbins
And like, and to have to keep growing even now part of this is happening because Netflix has grown and grown and grown and grown. And so is YouTube and so is Amazon and so is TikTok. And they just have to keep getting more, more, more, more, more. And it's not going to end.
Sean Fennessey
And there's no one who's gonna come in and say like, hey guys, too much growth that doesn't exist. There's no case for that. There's no logical world in which someone would have the power. Then you're talking about government regulation or something like that. And we don't really do that in our country.
Amanda Dobbins
No.
Sean Fennessey
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Amanda Dobbins
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Sean Fennessey
So that's our thrilling conclusion to that discussion.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. Outlook great. I'm really excited for the world we're handing to our children, which is a great segue to the leader at the Golden Globes nominations.
Sean Fennessey
That's right. Nice. Look at me.
Amanda Dobbins
Thank you. Thanks so much.
Sean Fennessey
Well done.
Amanda Dobbins
Thank you.
Sean Fennessey
It's gonna be one battle after another this award season, literally and figuratively. Let's Talk about briefly, or maybe not so briefly about the Golden Globe nominations. So the Golden Globes are pointless.
They have nominated all of the cool and good movies.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
And none of the bad and lame movies.
Amanda Dobbins
True.
Sean Fennessey
And they are looking more and more like the Academy Awards has looked in recent years. They're increasingly international.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
They're identifying great works by auteurs. They've kind of wrung out a lot of the cronyism in their organization over time, there's a new form of cronyism perhaps in place, but it's. The old HFPA is gone. The HFPA that nominated Deadpool in best comedy or musical is no longer around.
This is a very different organization.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
They.
Amanda Dobbins
Since their remake and their relaunch, they have just been clinging to the coattails of every single awards blog and just trying not to ruffle any feathers.
Sean Fennessey
Yes, exactly.
Amanda Dobbins
And there is, like, you know, every once in a while, it kicks in with like a. We really gotta have Kate Hudson here at the end. I'm happy for Kate Hudson. She's been doing karaoke in order to promote a film that I can't remember.
Sean Fennessey
The name of Song Sung Blue.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure. Have you seen it?
Sean Fennessey
Not yet.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay, next week. That's exciting. And I think I have to go see Anaconda, so. I can't. I'll have to wait on that one.
Sean Fennessey
Why not?
Amanda Dobbins
Both.
Because I have a job and children.
But, yeah, it's. It's pretty predictable and just an excuse to get people in a room two months early. And it's sort of. It's like. It's just like a welcome party.
Sean Fennessey
Well, I mean, some of this is the cynical what's good for show content stuff. And some of it is, what is the purpose of this show? And I think that both things, both of those quagmires are true for us, where the Golden Globes are ridiculous. They've always been historically ridiculous. You know, it's a shadowy group of people whose names we don't really know. We don't really know, like, what they're really affiliated with and what they do every day. And they make these choices about what they think are their favorite movies. You know, the same could probably be said for the Los Angeles Film Critics association, which just voted over the weekend, or the big pictures top five episodes of the year, or even the Academy Awards.
Amanda Dobbins
You know, I think everyone knows what I do all day, but that's fine.
Sean Fennessey
They do. You buy teacups.
Still, part of what made it fun was that they would be like, yeah, Jared Leto and The little things. We think you deserve to be honored. That was a good idea. And we don't get that anymore. We get this like very respectable collection of nominees. Let's talk about the nominees to this point. Okay. So you mentioned one battle after another. It received nine nominations.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
It's nominated in every major category that it was eligible in.
Amanda Dobbins
That's true.
Sean Fennessey
The only snub you could argue is Regina hall, which I don't even think is a snub at this point.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure, but they've got six spots in supporting actress. Yes, but. But no room for Regina Hall.
Sean Fennessey
No, but picture, director, screenplay, actor. Two people in supporting actor.
Amanda Dobbins
Supporting actress for Teyana Taylor. Yes.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. Score like on down the Line, this movie. This has been the movie of the season. It will continue to be the movie of the season. It is dominant here. The second most dominant movie in terms of the number of nominations was Sentimental Value. Were you surprised by this?
Amanda Dobbins
I was though I guess they're embracing international as. As you noted, it's a very international mix.
Sean Fennessey
5 non English language features represented in the 12 total best picture nominees among drama and comedy or musical.
Amanda Dobbins
Right. Which I was surprised by. I think even a few weeks ago, even maybe on our last best picture power rankings, it had not felt that the international features there wasn't a pop favorite like Anatomy of a Fall say however many years ago or Parasite. And I think that's changing a little bit as we the. As the releases widen and I think it was just an accident. Has really had its moment both through all the awards bodies and wider release and Jafar Panahy's sentencing. So you know, I. I think that.
That it like it's starting and maybe we were just a little. Or I was a little too soon on that. But sentimental Value, it had been waning and that's not just me talking.
Sean Fennessey
I wonder if this is going to be impactful or not because four acting nominations. Joachim Trier has two nominations here including in best director where he pushed out some other people who were competing. And.
I don't know if this movie is win competitive against.
A Hamnet or a Sinners, but we'll see.
Amanda Dobbins
So in addition to the six nominees in every category which as you've written in the document is weak make choices.
Sean Fennessey
It's pathetic.
Amanda Dobbins
Right. We're also. We have two categories. We have best drama and then best musical or comedy. And I am not one to care about category fraud and I don't think there any is such thing at the Golden Globes. But this is. It's confusing right? Now, one battle is running in comedy, but Sinners, which has many musical elements, is running in drama.
Sean Fennessey
They should be flipped.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. And I mean, there are other. It's so Sinners is up against Hamnet. Sentimental value is also in drama. Something else is in comedy.
Or musical. That to me seems.
Sean Fennessey
I mean, Nouvelle Vogue is in musical or comedy.
Amanda Dobbins
Well, sure, but that's just. You know, I'm happy for Richard Linklater.
Sean Fennessey
I am, too.
Amanda Dobbins
Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vogue.
Sean Fennessey
Wonderful. I couldn't think of another time where a filmmaker was nominated twice in the same best picture category at the Golden Globes. I'm sure it's happened, but I couldn't think of an example.
Was Erin Brockovich in Traffic.
Amanda Dobbins
But I think Brockovich was probably comedy, you know, and that's obviously also the only one that we can think of. What a time for Steven. Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. That's really interesting. I'm very happy for Richard Linklater. I'm very happy for Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon. I think that those are wonderful nominations. The Nouvelle Vogue one threw me for a loop a little bit. I did not see that coming.
Amanda Dobbins
Also at the expense of J. Kelly, which was not in best musical or comedy.
Sean Fennessey
Very notable.
Amanda Dobbins
George Clooney and Adam Sandler did get nominations.
Sean Fennessey
They did. Well, you could make the case that this was really at the expense of Wicked folks for good.
Amanda Dobbins
Well, yeah.
Sean Fennessey
And Wicked for good is not in best musical or comedy. Is. That's big news.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
We. We talked about it. We did. We took it out of the. Our last power rankings.
Amanda Dobbins
I thought that it would get one of the two extra spots in musical or comedy, and it did not. So that's.
Sean Fennessey
You saw. It's been sinking like a stone at the box office, too.
Amanda Dobbins
Of course, people are not feeling it.
Sean Fennessey
They're not really enjoying that movie.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
But Gonia gets a big boost. Three nominations. It gets in. In comedy. It gets Jesse Plemons and Emma Stone.
Amanda Dobbins
That's another one where, like, yes, technically. I mean, it is very funny. I laughed a lot, but yes.
Sean Fennessey
Debatable. How.
Amanda Dobbins
What are we doing here?
Sean Fennessey
How funny or painful it is Both. House of Dynamite and Wake Up Dead Man. Completely shut out. And as you mentioned, no J. Kelly in best comedy. Hamnet's got six nominations.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure.
Sean Fennessey
Which is pretty much exactly what it needs to do.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. Turn it along.
Sean Fennessey
Thursday we're going to talk about it.
Amanda Dobbins
I am going to see it in an hour and 20 minutes. That's an 11am Monday Hammet screening.
Sean Fennessey
Very, very cool.
Amanda Dobbins
After Golden Globe nominations and the death.
Sean Fennessey
Of Cinema okay, well, not. Not according to you. And Chloe Zhao, who was also nominated for best director for her work on that film, as were Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal and Max Richter for his score.
Fire and Ash.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
It received a achievement in cinematic and box office. And cinematic achievement.
Amanda Dobbins
What is that? Yes. Cinematic and box office. It's cinematic first, but then also the box office, which we should know. Wicked for good also did. They're relegated to the blockbuster.
Sean Fennessey
My beloved F1.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure. And K Pop Demon Hunters.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. Yeah.
Amanda Dobbins
Which is how you know that cinematic is first before box office.
Sean Fennessey
Yes. Cinema is back thanks to K Pop Demon Hunters. Yeah. The acting.
Amanda Dobbins
So let's talk about the song, just briefly, which is like Wicked, the two new Wicked songs got nominated. And only Golden Shameful justice for Soda Pop.
Sean Fennessey
To me, it would be what it sounds like. That is my daughter's favorite song. That's the song I'm most familiar with. I think there's a case for takedown, for strategy. There's a lot of jams free, you know, a lot of bangers on K Pop Demon Hunters.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
K Pop Demon Hunters won best animated feature at the New York Film Critics Circle. Isn't that amazing?
Amanda Dobbins
It's wonderful.
Sean Fennessey
So strange. Okay.
Amanda Dobbins
I was sort of surprised it didn't make it into best musical or comedy. If they really wanted to throw some.
Sean Fennessey
You know, they're not really interested in appealing to the pop sensibility here. Like, that's just not. This.
Amanda Dobbins
This works well, they are in cinematic and box office achievement.
Sean Fennessey
I know. Just junk that. It's just such a waste of time. Nobody cares. Let's talk about the kind of broad picture of acting nominees. I think the leading contenders are still the leading contenders. Right? Chalamet and Leos, your Jesse Buckleys, Those people. Nothing has really changed there. No shocking surprises. But because you've got 12 lead nominees in actor and actress, you've got Jeremy Allen White, Julia Roberts, Oscar Isaac, Tessa Thompson. I don't really think these people are very nomination competitive at the Academy Awards, but they're gonna be nominated here.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, we're. I'm happy for Tessa Thompson. Nina Haas was not recognized. And supporting for Head Officer.
Sean Fennessey
I was just doing my best performances.
Amanda Dobbins
Of the year list, but that's because you get. You only get one supporting category for both drama and musical.
Sean Fennessey
Tessa Thompson was in Hedda, which we have not discussed on this show, but probably will come up before the year is over. Is that coming out sometime soon, Hedda? It's on Amazon prime right now. Okay.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
And you both have seen it we have. Yeah. Five words or less. An interesting adaptation that doesn't quite get there. Okay.
Amanda Dobbins
Nina Haas was good.
Sean Fennessey
You mentioned Emily Blunt.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Is in supporting actress.
Amanda Dobbins
That's, you know, some globes. Got a globe every once in a while.
Sean Fennessey
You know, she was in the Smashing Machine, which so many people have seen. The supporting nominations. There's only six total for actor and actress. Those feel to me very close to where we're going to end up with, with the Oscars.
Amanda Dobbins
Not a single sinner is supporting nominee, which to me is the one. You know, oversight is probably the most generous term that I could give for it. But also, you know, you do wonder whether a Delroy Lindo or a Woodwi Masaka will, who have been showing up at some of the other awards situations.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah, I think that they're gonna campaign very hard as well. So it'll be interesting to see what shakes out there. I mentioned that Ethan Hawke is in for Blue Moon for best actor, which is wonder. Yeah.
Amanda Dobbins
Blue Moon. Also in best comedy or musical, which is lovely.
Sean Fennessey
Yes, it's great. Roseburn also now, like, kind of in pole position. Yeah.
Amanda Dobbins
Is that the right use of the term pole position?
Sean Fennessey
That would make her in first place. I would still say Jessie Buckley is very much in pole position. But she's. She's.
Amanda Dobbins
But she hasn't won any. She's won like one Awards, you know, won Critics Association.
Sean Fennessey
This is kind of like an elevated critics prize now. You know, it's a critics prize with a proper telecast. And so, I don't know. Let's talk about the studio breakdown.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay.
Sean Fennessey
I thought this was interesting. Neon has four nominations.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure. Well, international.
Sean Fennessey
No. They have all four of the major Cannes contenders. Netflix has two, Warner Brothers has two. Focus has two. A24 has one.
Amanda Dobbins
Marty Supreme.
Sean Fennessey
Marty Supreme.
Amanda Dobbins
Are you going to the Drop today in Los Angeles?
Sean Fennessey
Is there a drop?
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, it's on Western Avenue at 4pm.
Sean Fennessey
Clearly, I'm not going to the Drop. You are going to the Drop.
Amanda Dobbins
I have a preschool parent teacher conference, so I'm not able.
Sean Fennessey
Very cool. A different conference of drop. An information drop.
Amanda Dobbins
Sure.
Sean Fennessey
No, I'm not going. I saw Marty supreme for a second time last night.
Amanda Dobbins
Very jealous. But not at the Ben Affleck screening.
Sean Fennessey
I know.
Amanda Dobbins
Who did not invite me to the Ben Affleck hosted Marty Supreme. What do I have to do?
Sean Fennessey
What did he. Did he interview Josh Saff and Ronald Bronstein? Was that what it was?
Amanda Dobbins
I. I saw a picture of Ben and Josh.
Sean Fennessey
Oh, how nice.
Amanda Dobbins
And. And I saw a quote that said Ben Affleck described it as the best movie ever made.
Sean Fennessey
Really?
Amanda Dobbins
That's according to my friend's Instagram. So, you know, but I. I trust.
Sean Fennessey
I mean, it is an amazing movie. Second Time was better. We'll get into that.
Amanda Dobbins
And I really. I. I'm really sorry that I can't go be with the Jack. You gonna go to the drop this afternoon?
I just.
I do have a.
Sean Fennessey
That's exciting.
Amanda Dobbins
I have a pitch, though, for, you know, because they've been doing the jacket campaign like the greats, you know, and it's been like Misty Copeland, Tom Brady, which I know you have feelings about. Bill Nye, the Science Guy, fucking Tom Brady, Michael Phelps, but so then imagine me, anybody not washed, as the greatest mommy, and it'll be me in the jacket and my Velcro rollers doing Magna Tiles with my kids. Because you can have it all in the world of Marty Supreme. I just want them to think about it.
Sean Fennessey
My version of that will be a live capture of my Blu Ray shelves while I'm wearing the jacket. And I'll just be rearranging and be like, oh, actually, no. The Fury comes after DePalma's obsession. So I gotta make sure that those are in chronological order. And then I will be the greatest at organizing Blu Rays.
Amanda Dobbins
You'll be the greatest archivist and not be the greatest mommy.
Sean Fennessey
That's great.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay.
Sean Fennessey
Other good surprises.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Lee Byung Hun from no Other Choice, Getting in. No Other Choice Getting in at. That's a musical or comedy.
Amanda Dobbins
I'm excited. That's one thing. It is very funny. I guess it is technically in a draft, we would allow it as a comedy.
Sean Fennessey
Oh, it's definitely a comedy. Yeah, it is a comedy, but it's a satirical comedy. Yeah. But, you know, it is also very violent and dramatic. Yeah. And I think that's actually. Even though I agree with you about the sinners in one battle thing and that there is something dishonest maybe about how they've been navigated around one another.
Amanda Dobbins
It's the Golden Globes.
Sean Fennessey
It is the Golden Globes. But a movie like that, I mean, you know, I just put it on my top five list. And I did it in part because I was like, I feel like this is. It's fallen away a little bit. And, you know, the park super fans will get into it and they'll love it, but it's not gonna really be contending. I don't know, maybe. Maybe, you know, if Wicked for Good and Avatar are actually out, I know that's great. At the Academy Awards.
Amanda Dobbins
It could get in. That'd be great.
Sean Fennessey
Okay. Ava Victor, nominated for Best Actress. Never would have predicted that. I mean, fascinating.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. Love that movie.
Sean Fennessey
That movie is definitely still competing for Best Original Screenplay at the Academy Awards. I don't know if Ava Victor is competing for Best Actress at the Academy Awards.
Amanda Dobbins
It is an expanded field at the Golden Globes. But screen. I mean, screenplay is the coolest award.
Sean Fennessey
So it is the coolest award, especially original screenplay. That's where you want to win. Kang Ding Ray was nominated for Best score for Seurat. Have you seen Seurat?
Amanda Dobbins
No, and it's getting so bad.
Sean Fennessey
I have it on DV or Blu Ray at home.
Amanda Dobbins
Oh, really?
Sean Fennessey
Yeah, because I got the neon box over the weekend where they very kindly send to critics. Some critics.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
A box set of every film.
Amanda Dobbins
Oh, yeah, it is. I've borrowed it from you for many years. Okay, well, I'll borrow it.
Sean Fennessey
Seurat, fascinating movie. I'd love to be able to talk with you about it. I don't.
Amanda Dobbins
I. I just. It was a very limited qualifying run in LA Burbank 16, which I love. I just couldn't get there.
Sean Fennessey
I don't know when it'll come to streaming, but I recommend it with some reservations.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay. I mean, I'm. I. Knowing what I know. I'm ready.
Sean Fennessey
Okay. So the score. The score that's nominated.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
I don't even know where this came from. This is a real. This is the. By far, to me, the most outlandish pick. So the film is set in a desert landscape in rave culture.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
And the music. The score is primarily electronic rave music, and it's really good and effective in the film. Like, it really gives the film a heartbeat and an energy. But.
This over Marty supreme is crazy to me. Like, crazy.
Amanda Dobbins
Again, I haven't seen Surratt, but, yes, Marty supreme is maybe the score of the year.
Sean Fennessey
It's incredible.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Having just seen it again last night.
Amanda Dobbins
Listen. Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
If it doesn't get in at the Oscars, I'm gonna be baffled.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah, well, they didn't do challengers last year, so.
Sean Fennessey
It's a very good point. But. But to be honest, the Surrott score is more like Challengers.
Amanda Dobbins
Too little too late.
Sean Fennessey
What other stubs? No Billy Crud Up.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. We're talking about J. Kelly later this week.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. There had been a lot of like, hey, actually, what if it's Crud up over Sandler? But Sandler got in. Crud up did not.
No Train dreams in Drama.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. What does that Mean, but Joel Edgerton. Yes. Well, I just. They allotted two Netflix spots and they went to Nouvelle Vague and Frankenstein. Frankenstein. As opposed to J. Kelly and Train Dreams.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah.
Amanda Dobbins
Who can say?
Sean Fennessey
Five nominations for Frankenstein, including Elordi, Oscar Isaac and Best Director for Guillermo del Toro, but not Best Screenplay.
Notable. Yes. You think Del Toro today. I'm asking you. Today.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Is getting into Best Director at the Academy Awards.
Amanda Dobbins
People love him, you know.
Sean Fennessey
Yes or no?
Amanda Dobbins
Well, yes.
Sean Fennessey
Okay. If that happens, I think what has happened here will also happen, which is this. Josh Safdie was not in Best Director here, and that would be the case. I'm. I. I think. I think people. I was at a SAG screening from Marty supreme last night, and people were like, fucking a, man. This is it.
Amanda Dobbins
It's incredible.
Sean Fennessey
So I think that there's going to be a strong wave.
Amanda Dobbins
But, you know, Josh Safdie was at a DGA screening with Ben Affleck, who is also famously not nominated for Best Director when he won Best Picture.
Sean Fennessey
So is Marty going to Argo?
Amanda Dobbins
I will. That'd be great.
Sean Fennessey
It's not mad. Could happen. Yeah. I don't. This is just like a. This show is just a starter kit for the Oscars now.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
It's just. This is for normies to check out. Hey, here's what you should stream in the next two months as you wait for the Academy Award nominations. Do we need that?
Amanda Dobbins
Maybe. I mean, I don't think listeners of this show need it because you and I do, that they are on our turf somewhat. But that's okay. If we want more people engaging with the culture of movies. See the first hour and a half of this podcast, then. Sure. As many, you know, glitzy ceremonies being like, hey, look over here. Watch. It was just an accident as we can get.
Sean Fennessey
I agree.
I like the idea of celebrating the artists. Obviously, I'm for that. And if it means more exposure and money for them, I'm for that.
Amanda Dobbins
I just think that it's also.
Sean Fennessey
There's an obviation going on. I don't know.
Amanda Dobbins
White Lotus also got a lot of nominees, so a bunch of people will tune in for that, and then maybe they'll learn about a film, which is great. So leveraging, you know, TV brain for the purposes of teaching people about movies.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. What about Podcast brain? Yeah. Amy Poehler. Good. Hang with Amy Poehler. Nominated one of the five nominees.
Amanda Dobbins
Congratulations to Amy.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah. The greatest. Very happy for her. Very happy for that show. That show is great. And it is a ringer show and a Spotify Show.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. I'm very grateful for all of the work that Amy has done.
In terms of advocating for cameras that look good on people.
Sean Fennessey
Got it.
Amanda Dobbins
Thank you, Amy.
Sean Fennessey
That's. I. Yes. Thank you, Amy.
Amanda Dobbins
Look better, I guess we should say. I don't know if we. I don't know if you and I have gotten to good, but she looks great.
Sean Fennessey
I'll never get to good. CR's campaign for Ben Shapiro shut down. Denied. Tough, tough break for him.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
He'd been going door to door.
Amanda Dobbins
Right.
Sean Fennessey
To all of the. Is it even the Hollywood Foreign Press Association? What is the name of the organization now?
Amanda Dobbins
I think they are just the Golden Globes. Like, that's the name of the organization.
Sean Fennessey
Like, I'm Jim, Golden Globe.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Okay. All right, cool. Let's briefly talk about. It was just an accident.
Amanda Dobbins
Okay.
Sean Fennessey
Okay.
Amanda Dobbins
Through. The less. The less said until you've seen it, the better.
Sean Fennessey
I agree. I just want to maybe highlight a couple of things that I really like about this movie before throwing to our conversation with Jafar Panahi. So written directed by him, the cast includes Vahid Mobaserin, Maryam Ashfari and Ibrahim Azizi. Most of these actors are relatively unknown. This film was shot largely in secret in part because of the experience that Panahi has been going through, which is slightly confusing. Where he served time in prison, he had a period of time in which he was under house arrest. He had a long travel ban, a 20 year travel ban. He has been able to kind of navigate and negotiate around some of those things over that time. During the period in which he was under house arrest, he made a film called this is Not a Film. He made a film in 2015 called Taxi in which he just mounted a camera in a taxi and had a series of exchanges that may or may not be what really happened.
He's an incredibly experimental filmmaker, but also a very traditional filmmaker. And this movie is much more traditional than what he has been making over the last 10 or 15 years because of the circumstances that he's been under in the regime. What did you think of? It was just an accident.
Amanda Dobbins
So I went in knowing almost nothing except that it was a thriller and that it won the Palme Door. And.
I loved it. I mean, I was very stressed out and it does that essential thriller, audience pleasing thing of. There is a central question and I didn't know and I went back and forth throughout the film of where I think the various characters motiv. I understood their motivations. But are they right? Are they wrong? How is this gonna pan Out, I don't know. And it does manage to keep, you know, wrong footing you, as it adds people and complications to the process. There's also one extended. I mean, there are a number of very tense set pieces, but there's one in a hospital that I have thought about with nausea. If I had legs, I'd kick you. Was the most nauseous I've been in a theater. This is a close second.
Sean Fennessey
And that's a companion for part of the same reason. Yeah. I mean, the framework of the movie is that.
A man and his family drive into a mechanic's office after they've gotten into an accident. And one of the men working in the mechanics notices that the man who has pulled in with his family may or may not be a significant and terrifying figure from his past, someone who is responsible for tremendous pain that he has that has caused him and caused other people that he knows closely. And he sets out to figure out if this man is, in fact, his torturer, the person who is responsible for all these terrible acts. And it becomes this kind of, like, Hitchcockian road comedy where you're really nervous and unsure of what is real and, like, what is true and what is not true and whether or not they will be able to ascertain the truth. But as you said, they keep adding more and more characters and figures into this world, into this caravan that is traveling around Tehran. And it's like, such a fascinating blend of tone because. And, you know, I come to it with a lot of this knowledge of Panahi's films and his filmmaking style. And some of his movies have a tension in them, but they're usually much more sort of, like, intellectually rigorous and exploring, like, what makes a movie. And this is a real movie movie. It is a narrative story. And I was asking him questions when we were talking about convention and how do you think about plotting? And he was like, I don't really think about it that way. What matters is the idea that I'm really driving at. But it isn't that kind of movie. If people are concerned about checking this out because they're an Iranian film.
In a foreign language that is a world that I don't understand. And what do I have to know about the director? You don't.
Amanda Dobbins
You don't.
Sean Fennessey
In order to click with it.
Amanda Dobbins
And you learn a lot about the world. And really, there are. It's incredibly, incredibly well observed. And the, you know, the tap to pay comes up several times. And I've thought about that a lot also. When you were. When we Were fighting about who can dig a hole.
That's immediately what I thought of. So there's a lot that stays with you, but it is.
You just want to find out what happens.
Sean Fennessey
That's. And the way in which we find out. Yeah. Is also the way in which it is one of. We've been talking about. What are the great endings of movie Endings of the year? You know, Marty supreme, one of the great endings. What was the other movie you said that you thought was, like, absolutely dynamite? You know, if I had likes, I'd kick you. Has an incredible ending. One battle after another. Has an incredible ending. Like no other choice. Has an incredible ending. There are a series of movies this year where you walk out going like, wow, nice.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
And this is not quite as uplifting, I would say, but it is incredibly impactful and really delivers on the paranoia that is steeped deep inside of this movie. So, yeah, this is a wonderful film. And we've been saying, is there an anatomy of a fall this year? I think this is it.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. It's starting.
Sean Fennessey
People are really responding to it and obviously they're very. I think, Savily. Locating what Panahi represents in the world at large and how if you live under fascism or you live under a controlling theocratic state, what does it mean to try to be an artist and express yourself? And he is doing that in fascinating ways. I don't know what's going to happen to him in the long term. He talked a little bit about his time in prison before this when we spoke.
But that aspect of things is very scary and very sad. But I hope that he is here through the duration of.
Amanda Dobbins
I do as well. Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
At least this campaign. But he's also his heart and his life and his family is in Iran, so he naturally wants to go back to his home. So it's a very complicated story.
What an episode.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. It's not done.
Sean Fennessey
It's not done. Let's go now to my conversation with Jafar Panahy.
It is an honor to be joined by Jafar Panahi and his interpreter, Shayda Dayani. Thank you both for being here. So I wanted to start with this. It's fascinating. Fascinating to see your point of view and your filmmaking skill put towards a classical thriller, a traditional thriller style. Did you have any cinematic examples that you thought of while you were working on this film?
Jafar Panahi
I don't know where you've reached that you call it a thriller.
Usually it's my wife watching thrillers. It were.
And whenever she wants to watch them, I Run away.
Because I can't really tolerate thrillers.
Sean Fennessey
That's so surprising to hear because I was very taught throughout this movie.
Jafar Panahi
For me, there is no fear in it.
Because what my wife watches is full of killing and blood and murder. And I don't associate with that.
That's what I call a thriller.
Sean Fennessey
It's funny to hear you say that though, because it does conjure the idea of revenge, which is something you see in lots and lots of American films. Does that word feel appropriate to you for this film?
Jafar Panahi
I really think that themes such as revenge and forgiveness are only on the surface and they're there to move the plot forward.
Such themes will not take you deep down into the film. They will only remain on the surface and they will move you maybe just through the story.
My issue was not that.
My issue was raising other questions that are the need of our society.
What can we do?
The question is, is the cycle of violence going to continue as before and keep repeating its.
Or is there a point where we decide to end it?
So those themes of revenge and forgiveness are just introductions and preambles. To get to this one question.
The.
Sean Fennessey
Film takes this interesting approach of a dialectic among five characters who all seem to represent different points of view on what you just described. Can you talk about finding a way to craft real characters while also representing all of these different ideas that the film is exploring?
Jafar Panahi
I think it's quite easy because you can find examples of those characters both within the society and I also saw them when I was in prison.
When a society is shedding, these characters automatically will rise.
And everyone thinks of how to get to the final.
You can come across such encounters on virtual spaces, on the society itself very easily.
So you can easily select them, put them in the script. And now you just have to find the dialogues between them.
And the different viewpoints of the characters. Different thoughts of the characters are also helping with moving the story forward.
Because sometimes they're in contradiction and sometimes they're in line.
So what does the story want?
These are exactly what moves the story forward.
Sean Fennessey
What about finding the right actors? I recognized a couple of the actors from previous work, but working in secret casting must be challenging. How do you do that?
Jafar Panahi
Yes, but what matters to me initially is the actors physical appearances to match the characters.
The first thing that the audience sees is the physical characteristics of an actor.
And the question is how much those physical characteristics can bring the audience along. In the first moments.
For instance, Vahid has a problem. He goes to someone and he asks for help.
And the character who is at the bookstore and seems to be a few steps forward, introduces another person.
And gives the audience an idea about the coming character. Whatever she says, listen to her.
So the audience has it in their mind that the character whom Vahid is going to has certain charisma.
And can be influential.
Meaning you see a leader in advance.
So the first shot that we see of Shiva, we have to see that character and personality in her face.
The way she conducts herself, the way she walks, the way she looks. They all make a difference.
When you have all these in your mind, then you look and ask, whom can you trust?
I remembered that when I was helping a friend of mine on the set of his film, I met his assistant and I realized that she could be a good fit.
And because that film was made in the style of my films underground, I knew that I could trust that actor. I started know your Bosina.
Most of my actors either had not acted before or they had acted in clandestinely made films.
Sean Fennessey
I wanted to ask about Shiva. At first I was surprised that there was not a filmmaking component to the movie. And then it occurred to me that she's a photographer. Is there significance in Shiva being a photographer?
Jafar Panahi
I don't explain this in the film, but in fact, Shiva and the character of the bride were both journalists.
Vahid says at some point that he had read the report.
And he makes a reference to the bride.
I thought that when they wrote that report, there must have been a journalist and a photojournalist.
And that's why she came into the story.
And the context is that they would have gone to prison, they would have been banned from working in journalism. And now she's out and she's doing just photography.
Sean Fennessey
Can you talk a little bit about balancing tone? This struck me as, perhaps ironically, one of your funniest movies. And the subject matter is obviously incredibly intense, and it seems difficult to balance tone. How do you think about doing that when you're making a film?
Jafar Panahi
You know, anything that happens in the daily life, usually at the end of the day, you have some smiles going on too.
In this very interview that we're doing now, at the beginning, we tried to smile even if we were faking it, but we tried to make some laughter just so we could bring the audience along.
Sean Fennessey
Speak for yourself. I'm not faking.
Jafar Panahi
So this tone of laughter, smiles, humor has been combined into the film itself.
And this makes it in the genre of realism.
And it makes it believable.
So how would we not expect it? How would we expect it to not be in the film.
It also makes the subject matter more tolerable.
Especially because I really did want this to be in the film, this tone of laughter to be in the film until the very last 20 minutes of the film.
I wanted the last 20 minutes to be very influential.
To the point that when the audience leaves the theater, they would still be thinking about the film.
So I had to make some kind of a difference in tones in film so that the film would not be monotonous.
Imagine those parts that had humor without humor, without smiles.
And that way the would be monotonous until the last. Also in the last 20 minutes. And it wouldn't have the impact that it does now.
Because there was no difference in tone.
Sean Fennessey
I'd like to hear you talk a little bit about the difference between fact and fiction and our sense of what is really happening and what not. Your last few films are exploring the balance between what's real and not real. This film that's also part of the character's pursuit. Did the work on those movies inform writing this movie?
Jafar Panahi
Of course they did help.
No film is pure reality. You are only inculcating reality.
A filmmaker gets inspired by realities. Then the filmmaker brings those inspirations into their imagination, develops it in their imagination, and then brings it back into another form of reality.
And in this game, you try to inculcate reality.
In fact, this story never happened.
It just happens in your imagination.
But based on what? Based on real preferences.
Or based on imagination that you have had before.
And based on experiences that you have had before, such as.
You'Re being blindfolded in the prison, someone walking behind you, and you hearing there is sound of footsteps and them giving you a pen and a paper and asking you questions.
And now it's just your auditory sense that is working at its peak.
You're only reconstructing reality based on the sounds you hear. You're thinking, how old is this person behind me? What does he look like?
If I see him outside, would I recognize him?
So this game has already started.
And when you write about the same issue, then the scheme becomes increased and highlighted. Highlighted.
Sean Fennessey
When you were in prison, did you take very specific notes so that you could find a way to reproduce or reimagine these experiences in your work?
Jafar Panahi
I really was not thinking about making films in prison.
It was not even in my mind. It was not even on my mind that I would one day make a film.
I just wanted the time to pass.
We were talking with one another. We were having empathy for each other. We were talking about our experiences as pastime.
This kept continuing. And it was only outside prison that you kept thinking, you have to do something.
And that was because of the fact that I had lived with a number of people for some time in prison and I could not forget them.
They had occupied somewhere in my mind. And I just wanted to let go of those experiences.
Or I just wanted to unload a very heavy burden that was on my shoulders.
And it was the burden of thinking that I am outside and my friends are still in prison.
And I realized I have to do something.
And because I knew nothing other than filmmaking, then I thought, I'm going to make a film about them.
Sean Fennessey
One scene that really resonates for me is the moment when they're on the roof and approached by security and the security guard or the officer pulls out a credit card machine. Just incredibly specific. I'm wondering if you could talk about where that sequence comes from.
Jafar Panahi
The one characteristic of regimes that don't have a specific clear structure is that corruption has run its roots in everything.
When we were in prison, we were in a group of about 300, maybe, I don't remember 300 prisoners. It was only 30 or 40 of us who were political prisoners.
And others had sentences for financial crime.
Or the fact that any office that you go to, anywhere you go to, you have to somehow bribe people.
The polite way of saying it is that you have to tip people or you have to. You are forced to tip people.
But this is of course, a minute detail compared to the bigger corruption charges that are happening.
I remember I was driving through an intersection and when there was a red light, one of these, one or two of these children, children of labor, came to my car.
And they wanted to clean my windshield. And they even started pouring water on it to start cleaning it.
I asked one of them, son, please don't touch the car, please don't do this.
Doing what he wanted to do.
I said to him, nobody carries cash around and I don't have any cash to give you.
He said, it's okay, I have a credit card machine.
Of course, myself and friends who collaborated with me on writing this script have had similar experiences and they somehow made their way into the film during that.
Sean Fennessey
Sequence and a few others. I thought of your friend Abbas Kirasami a bit while watching the movie. I wonder, was he on your mind while you were working on this? What do you think he would make of this movie?
Jafar Panahi
I don't know. He's no longer with us.
I don't know if he would like the film or not.
Sean Fennessey
Do you hope that he would.
Jafar Panahi
Naturally, you want everyone to like your film.
Sean Fennessey
You've said in the past that you felt you couldn't make a film outside of Iran because you don't know the culture outside of your home country. You've been traveling this past year. Are your ideas changing about that at all?
Jafar Panahi
But this is not traveling.
I'm either on the plane.
Or I'm in a room like this.
Where am I in contact with people?
Sometimes they get my hotels in very. In neighborhoods that are not crowded or not among people.
I see. This is nice. It's a very luxurious, fancy hotel.
But I really want to be among people. I want to be in the crowd.
Please get my hotel in areas where if I have 10 minutes or one hour, I could just meet people.
But our friends, because they're very kind to me, they take me to other neighborhoods far away.
Sean Fennessey
If anyone could make an interesting movie about promoting a movie, though given Taxi given this is not a film, I think that you could do that.
Jafar Panahi
I don't know what that means. I don't know. I don't know how to make that.
Sean Fennessey
Have you figured out what you are doing next?
Jafar Panahi
I just know that I have to make a film about war.
There was a time about 15 years ago that I tried really hard for five years to make a project, make a film project.
It was not a film that I could make underground because it is or it was a big production.
I had written the initial script.
But I couldn't make it.
But with everything going on in the world, it really scares me.
And it tells me that I have to make a humanistic film about war.
Not to make a war movie, but to make a socially engaged movie with the subject matter of war.
Just like it was just an accident. I do not consider it a political film. I consider it a social film with a political subject matter.
Sometimes I get a chance on these trips and in these far away hotels that they book for me to sit down and work on my scripts about the war.
Sean Fennessey
Would a film like that have to be made differently than what you've been doing in recent years?
No.
Jafar Panahi
As I said, it's going to be a socially engaged film with the subject of war.
It cannot be made clandestinely. Absolutely not.
It needs a big production, a lot of budget and a lot of resources.
Sean Fennessey
Does the success of this movie make that more possible for you?
Jafar Panahi
I really don't look at making films as such.
I always say to myself, I believe in this film and I have to make it.
And I have to just find a solution for it.
And I don't know when that solution will come, how, and at what time.
Sean Fennessey
Jafar, we end every episode of this show by asking filmmakers what is the last great thing they have seen. I know you've been traveling and staying in hotels, but have you seen anything great lately?
Jafar Panahi
The last film I saw was an Iranian film that had been reconstructed.
It is by Bahram Beiza, Maestro Beza, and it is called A Little Stranger.
And in fact, that too is about war.
Sean Fennessey
It's a great recommendation. Thank you very much.
Okay, thank you to Jafar Panahi. Thank you to his interpreter. Thank you to our producer, Jack Sanders for his work on this epic episode. We'll be back on Wednesday to talk about Noah Baumbach's new film, J. Kelly. What else? What else is going on with you? You got to go to a parent teacher conference.
Got to go see Hamnet again.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah. I got a lot of movies to watch.
Sean Fennessey
Yeah.
Amanda Dobbins
And a lot of podcasting with you and going to meet Santa at some.
Sean Fennessey
Point and just you just so long.
Amanda Dobbins
Yeah.
Sean Fennessey
Just so you sit on his lap. Uhhuh.
Amanda Dobbins
Uhhuh. And trying to lock down that jacket, you know, Greatest Mommy.
Sean Fennessey
You're getting online now.
Okay, we'll see you on Wednesday.
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Release Date: December 8, 2025
Hosts: Sean Fennessey, Amanda Dobbins
In this densely packed episode of The Big Picture, Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins break down seismic shifts in Hollywood with Netflix’s bid for Warner Bros., analyze the Golden Globe nominations, and host an illuminating interview with acclaimed Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi about his latest Palme d'Or-winning film, It Was Just an Accident. The conversation navigates industry upheaval, evolving movie consumption, optimism and anxiety about physical media, and the ongoing relevance (or irrelevance) of awards shows. The tone is passionate, sometimes melancholic, and often irreverently funny—anchored by deep expertise and cinephile anguish over Hollywood’s future.
[02:12 - 38:45]
[16:44 - 38:45]
[44:45 - 53:55]
[54:06 - 57:14]
The Deal’s Future:
Artist & Guild Reactions:
Big Picture: The move is ultimately the result of decades of prioritizing global growth and IP over creative diversity.
[61:44 - 81:00]
[88:28 onward; Jafar Panahi interview begins]
If you haven't heard the episode:
Sean and Amanda deliver a sweeping, sometimes darkly comic reckoning with the modern movie industry, from Netflix's potentially world-changing acquisition to the fate of theaters, the meaning of physical media, and the continued importance (or not) of awards season. The episode features informed speculation, fierce cinephile advocacy, sharp cultural criticism, and a lucid, generous interview with Jafar Panahi on the power and peril of making politically urgent cinema.
The upshot: The entertainment landscape is consolidating faster than ever, with Netflix poised to become almost Disney-like in its dominance—potentially reshaping what movies are and how (if) audiences see them. Awards shows reflect these shifts, with international films rising and mid-tier creative opportunities shrinking. The preservation of cinema, both in terms of access and artistry, grows ever more precarious—making the work of visionaries like Panahi more essential and endangered.
[117:17] – Sean thanks Jafar Panahi and wraps the episode, teasing upcoming discussions (“Noah Baumbach’s J. Kelly”) and personal notes (school conferences, seeing Hamnet, ongoing podcasting).
For further details on any segment, consult the timestamps above.