College Football Playoff bracket: Big Ten eating itself just like the SEC; Cincinnati getting closer

Summary

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The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk

Episode: College Football Playoff Bracket – Big Ten Eating Itself Just Like the SEC; Cincinnati Getting Closer

Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis
Date: October 22, 2025
Main Theme:
A deep-dive, playoff-focused episode analyzing how losses across the top college football conferences (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) are impacting playoff projections. With Ohio State atop, Doug and Bill break down conference chaos, under-the-radar teams like Cincinnati, the committee’s mindset, and why both the SEC and Big Ten may be “eating themselves.” The episode includes their updated playoff brackets, discussion of recent pivotal games, and debates about bias and team quality.

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Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Playoff Projection Season: Increased Uncertainty

• The hosts reflect on the growing difficulty of projecting the final College Football Playoff (CFP) field as more ranked teams take unexpected losses.

  “Every week I sit down to do it, and it’s harder and harder to figure out which 11 teams are going to go in those FBS spots.” — Bill Landis [02:55]

2. Recent Shake-ups: Major Teams Lose

• Three undefeated teams fell last week: Miami, Texas Tech, and Ole Miss.
• Doug admits self-deprecatingly that despite disliking perpetual SEC powerhouses, “Georgia beating Ole Miss mattered...it wasn’t like Georgia had a fluky win.” — Doug Lesmerises [05:03]

3. The Playoff Bracket Debate: SEC and Big Ten in the Spotlight

• Doug and Bill reveal and discuss their weekly playoff rankings, noting:
  • Doug’s current top 4: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Indiana (as Big Ten title-game loser), and Miami. Alabama and Georgia are just outside.
  • Doug laments including so many SEC teams:

    “I hate myself.” — Doug Lesmerises [06:11]

  • SEC is likely to secure at least one playoff bye; the scenario for a SEC bye-less playoff "is dead now" after key losses in other conferences. [06:46]
  • The Big Ten could get three teams, but two-loss chaos makes four unlikely.

4. The Big 12 Picture & Texas Tech’s Path

• Texas Tech’s loss (with backup QB) might not doom them given a favorable remaining schedule, but might cap their seeding and mean no home playoff game.
  • Bill: “If that’s a two loss champ, you’re probably right…if it’s a one loss Big 12 champ they’re getting a home game.” [11:46]
• The Texas Tech vs. BYU match-up and the November 22 BYU–Cincinnati game are circled as critical for determining the Big 12 title and playoff implications.
  • Doug: “That could be a play-in game for the Big 12 championship game.” [16:45]

5. Cincinnati’s Rise and National Perception

• Cincinnati ranks nationally in offensive success rate, positioning them as more than a dark horse.
  • “Cincinnati’s offense has the best success rate in the Big 12…” — Doug [18:04]
• Discussion of the Nebraska-Cincinnati opener and how early results might become unexpectedly pivotal in playoff resumes.

6. Miami & the ACC: Do You Trust Mario Cristobal?

• Miami’s path to an ACC title—and a playoff spot—remains open but precarious.
• Doug recounts last year’s collapse and expresses skepticism about Miami closing out necessary north-bound wins late in the season due to their schedule—ending at Pitt in potentially bad weather.
  • “Do you trust Mario Cristobal like to run this?” — Doug [27:52]
• Bill argues that this year, unlike last, Miami boasts better wins (including Notre Dame), helping even a 10–2 Miami’s playoff case if they reach the title game. [28:17]

7. Big Ten’s Cannibalization & The Path to Four Playoff Teams

• There are eight two-loss Big Ten teams; hosts analyze how scheduling quirks (e.g., Northwestern’s five games all against similar teams) will shake out.
• Theoretical ways a two-loss team could sneak in—but only if that team has a win over Oregon down the stretch, or if Oregon itself handles a brutal slate and finishes strong.
• The Big Ten’s “eating itself” dynamic is compared directly to the SEC’s, challenging the myth of SEC exclusivity in this regard.
  • “The SEC is eating itself. Like, I don’t think that’s wrong. But the Big Ten is also eating itself alive.” — Doug [37:33]

8. The Committee & Southern Bias

• Ongoing frustration at the narrative that SEC teams are always more deserving due to AP poll inertia and supposed depth.
  • Doug blasts the use of AP rankings as “not evidence of anything in the moment.” [37:33]
• The reality: both SEC and Big Ten have complex resumes, and conference-wide attrition is real for both.

9. Analytics vs. Perception: How 'Good' Are the 'Good' Teams?

• The hosts reference advanced stats (e.g., CFB Graphs, Parker Fleming’s quadrants) showing similar offensive/defensive profiles between teams often regarded differently, e.g., Ole Miss vs. Cincinnati.

  “If you tried to explain to an SEC pundit that Cincinnati’s as good as Ole Miss, they’re just gonna grunt at you and hit you over the head with a stick.” — Doug [46:25]

• They play with a tool for hypothetical matchups:
  • Ole Miss vs. Cincinnati on a neutral field: 31–28 Ole Miss.
  • Vanderbilt projected to narrowly beat Washington—underscoring how misleading some narratives can be. [48:08]

10. Wrap: The Challenge of Understanding Washington’s Ceiling

• Doug ponders whether Washington’s recent offensive struggles are a blip, an indicator of facing elite defenses, or a sign of an overrated offense. [49:03]
• Bill notes Washington would be projected to beat Ole Miss on a neutral field, again highlighting the fine margins in the current playoff picture. [50:47]

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Memorable Quotes

• “I hate myself.”
  — Doug Lesmerises, on having to include so many SEC teams in his bracket [06:11]
• “The SEC is mid.”
  — Doug Lesmerises, challenging Southern football bias [37:33]
• “Do you trust Mario Cristobal like to run this?”
  — Doug Lesmerises, on Miami’s playoff viability [27:52]
• “Both these leagues are eating themselves equally.”
  — Doug Lesmerises, on parity/chaos at the top of Power 5 [37:33]
• “If you try to explain fire to a caveman… If you explain to an SEC pundit that Cincinnati’s as good as Ole Miss, they’re just gonna…hit you over the head with a stick.”
  — Doug Lesmerises, on perception gaps between leagues [46:25]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:26] – Opening overview of playoff projection process
• [05:03] – Recap of recent major upsets affecting the bracket
• [06:11] – Rankings revealed; Doug’s struggle with SEC dominance
• [10:00] – Notre Dame’s impact on Big Ten playoff hopes
• [11:46] – Texas Tech’s loss, Big 12 championship, home/road playoff debate
• [16:15] – Cincinnati and BYU highlighted as Big 12’s emerging forces
• [18:04] – Cincinnati’s statistical profile & underrated playoff case
• [21:46] – Bill’s playoff bracket: Georgia Tech up, Miami & Texas Tech’s fate
• [27:52] – Miami’s remaining schedule, northbound concerns, and trust in Cristobal
• [32:40] – Scheduling madness for two-loss Big Ten teams
• [37:33] – Rant against SEC bias and “league cannibalization”
• [46:25] – Analytics-based “SEC vs. everyone else” argument
• [49:03] – What’s wrong with Washington’s offense?
• [50:47] – Playoff projections by advanced stats

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Episode Flow, Language & Tone

The show is conversational, fast-paced, and infused with self-deprecating humor. Doug regularly leans into his skepticism of national SEC bias, while both hosts display deep knowledge of team schedules, advanced stats, and committee politics. Banter and hypothetical matchups keep things engaging and relatable for serious college football fans.

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For Listeners Who Missed It

• This episode gives a robust, data-driven, yet irreverent breakdown of this year’s chaotic playoff picture, especially the mounting parity in the Big Ten and SEC.
• Key takeaways: The playoff race is more wide open and complicated than ever, analytics and schedule quirks are as relevant as brand names, and underdog teams like Cincinnati may be much closer to the “elite” than most realize.
• The bracket is still a moving target—and the debates are only just heating up.

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Transcript

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[Doug Lesmerises]

Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. It's Tuesday. It's time to talk playoffs. Bill, we're not that far away. Two weeks from now we'll be doing actual reaction to the playoff committee. They meet on Tuesday nights. They'll start doing that on November 4th and when we do that then we we're gonna be here. We were talking about the format today, but we're going to be here giving our opinions about playoff brackets but then also reacting to what the committee is actually doing. Starting in two weeks yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Not. We will be live reacting to it and then you will see the live reaction to it probably shortly after that show ends. But yeah, I'm looking forward to that because I don't know about you. Like, I feel like this is getting more difficult to project the playoff field. I feel like with more games, it should be easier. We should have more clarity. But I'm. I feel like every week I sit down to do it, and it's harder and harder to figure out which 11 teams are going to go in those FBS spots.

[Doug Lesmerises]

We are actually doing the more difficult thing because we are trying to predict what actually is going to be the playoff bracket at the end of the year. So we are sort of going by what's happening right now, but also anticipating, okay, well, who. Who do we think is going to be good? And then you've got to try to factor in who's going to lose. And you don't want to go too crazy with that. It is a little easier to say, this is what I think now. But as we were talking about this, obviously, after the, the. The only two that really matter. I'm not one of those people who thinks that you shouldn't have them during the year. You should only do it once. It's a sport. It's supposed to be fun. It's something to talk about. I don't think it ruins anything. But the only two that really matter. The only one that really matters, obviously, is the final one, but then the next most important one is the first one because it gives you the initial idea of, like, oh, that's what they think of Georgia Tech, or, oh, that's what they think of Indiana. And so in two weeks, we're going to figure that out, and then that's going to influence our projected brackets because we're going to realize, oh, man. The. What the committee is telling us at the moment is there's no way the ACC's getting two. Or what the committee is telling us is like, yeah, baby, seven for the SEC is alive and healthy. No matter how much we might hate it, their rankings are telling us it's possible. So, like, that's the kind of thing that we'll figure out a couple weeks from now.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. And I think it'll be interesting to. To monitor, like, whether or not we think any of their thought process has changed. Like, after. After one year of doing this. Right. With all the noise we had in the off season about the SEC and strength of schedule and Indiana last year, I'm just interested to see if. If Any of that feels like it has seeped its way into the actual playoff conversation. Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So bunch of losses last week that certainly affected everybody's. Look at the playoff picture. Three undefeated teams lost. Number two, Miami lost. Texas Tech, everyone's team in the Big 12 lost. And Ole Miss lost to Georgia in a game that I picked Ole Miss to win. And so like, there's a couple teams like, again, just part of some chunk of what, of what we do here, both in our. On our playoff show on Tuesday nights and in our, Our Friday pick show is just me, like, just having to like, look at reality and hating every part of it and being like, I guess Alabama and Georgia are good, but I just can't. I. I accept neither Georgia nor Alabama at this point, but they keep winning. And so at some point it matters. And Georgia beating Ole Miss mattered. And. And then by the way, you go to like the success rate matchups, like, by that, like, Georgia dominated. Right. So it's like it wasn't like Georgia Fluke had a fluky win over Ole Miss. No matter how much I don't like it.

[Bill Landis]

You think every Georgia wins a fluky win?

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

That's all right. You're true to who you are.

[Doug Lesmerises]

You don't want to know how many SEC teams I have in this week. Actually, you do want to know. Let's get to the rankings. Let's get to my playoff bracket and we'll talk about it. I hate myself.

[Bill Landis]

That's interesting because I have. I. I lowered my number of ses.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay. Okay. Is. Is the, Is the Big Ten night scenario coming any more true in your mind or. No?

[Bill Landis]

Well, I was worried about getting two, so.

[Doug Lesmerises]

No.

[Bill Landis]

I don't know that we're any closer to that. I don't think it does feel like Big Ten's getting three, and that's probably it.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

Unless Michigan goes on a run.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I have all the stuff here. Like, there's so many two lost teams in the Big Ten, and I have, like, who they've beaten, who they still have to play, who we think might emerge from that. But let me give you my rankings. First, number one, Ohio State. That hasn't changed. I do think the thing that happened and it's my fault, and why do I talk about college football? I should just shut my hole and wait for things to happen. Because I just, I was like, I think we might have four undefeated champions. And then Texas Tech and Miami were like, nope. So the thing that I think that has happened that you and I have danced with is like the SEC not getting a buy. And that's dead now because the SEC not getting a buy. The only scenario for that was like undefeated ACC champ, undefeated Big 12 champ, and two undefeated teams playing in the Big 10 championship game and then both of them getting buys. So that's out. So I have Texas A and M as the two seed. Now the SEC champ can rest easy. They're getting a buy. Yes.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, yeah. No doubt about it now. Yes.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay. All right. Ohio State 1, Texas A&M 2. Indiana 3. I had Indiana 5 last week. And sort of that same thing of, okay, Miami and Texas Tech, undefeated champs from the Big 12 in the ACC. So Indiana as the Big 10 championship game loser in my scenario back to number three, I still have Miami four.

[Bill Landis]

And we could.

[Doug Lesmerises]

That's that. Now that's Miami as a one loss ACC champ and probably that. Now we're talking about if the ACC or Big 12 champ, like runs the table from now on or BYU still undefeated. Right. Georgia Tech still under. That could still happen if there's a one loss big 12 or ACC champ. Now they're going head to head with like the loser of the SEC title game for the last playoff spot, last buy. Right. Is that how we would see that?

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I think so. Yes.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay, so like in my scenario at the moment, I have Miami getting it because I have Miami four, I have Alabama five, Oregon six, Georgia Tech seven, Notre Dame eight, Texas Tech nine. As the Big 12 champ. That low the Big 12 is. Could really get a little crazy here. And I want to talk about the team that like, we have to talk about. And I want to talk about the Big 12 because otherwise the north is not going to be represented enough. So we want to talk about them at least a little bit in a moment. 10. Georgia 11, Oklahoma 12, South Florida. So I don't. I know I had Texas and Washington in last week. I have replaced them with Georgia and Oklahoma because Georgia beat Ole Miss and Texas looked like garbage against Kentucky and Washington lost to Michigan. So I really stared at, okay, that is Texas A and M, Alabama, Georgia all in from the sec. And then it was like, can I get a fourth Big Ten team in? It's like, no, I have to give the fourth team to the SEC for now. Because the other thing we talked about is we thought Notre Dame, USC was a little bit maybe for that spot. Like, it's Notre Dame versus the Big Ten for the fourth Big Ten spot and Notre Dame beat usc and that's gonna affect a lot of things there because USC beat Michigan and Illinois Beat usc. So Notre Dame beating USC a fox effects mispronunciation of effects. Don't. Don't give us the old.

[Bill Landis]

Also appropriate for the situation effects.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Right. That, that makes it a little bit harder for that fourth Big Ten team because Notre Dame got a really good win. So. And Then South Florida 12 still hanging on to South Florida as the group of five team. So two new teams for me this week. Right? Yeah. So I think that's right. So Washington and Texas out for me from last week, Georgia and Oklahoma. In anything crazy you hear there, anything.

[Bill Landis]

Like oh my God, no, I don't. We have similar thought processes. I think I actually only only ended up dropping one team from last week, but I did like rearrange the board a little bit. But you have, you have Texas Tech as the Big 12 champions playing a road game as a nine seed. Is that. Did I hear that?

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yes. Yes. Because that's sort of like so, so we can talk about Texas Tech. So Texas Tech lost to Arizona State with its backup quarterback.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So I think the committee actually will take that into consideration some. But also it doesn't matter what the committee's taken into consideration on some level because the Big 12 probably isn't getting two. And this scenario to me is that maybe there's a jam up of like Texas Tech emerges somehow from. And I don't know what the tiebreakers are, but that's like a two loss Texas Tech, Big 12 champ, that at least one, two, one team with two conference losses at least last year they had a four way tie right. In the Big 12 and they had to pick was it. It was a four way tie with two conference losses. Right. It wasn't a four way tie, one conference loss, was it?

[Bill Landis]

I think that's right. Yeah. Incorrect.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. So like in that scenario what are you going to do with. With a, a two loss Big 12 champ. And yes, I have them that low. I have them nine.

[Bill Landis]

So I think if that's a two loss champ, you're probably right. I think if it's a one loss Big 12 champ, they're getting a home game.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I think that's right. And it's, it's a fair distinction because I think that's like a worthy distinction to make that like the difference between 7 and 8 is not that big of a deal, but the difference between 8 and 9 is gigantic. And it's like hey, like in the room, even if they're not supposed to post to talk about it or I could see them talking about like hey, like this, this is a conference champ. Like, what are we doing here that, you know, we're sending them on the road? Right? So like last year, Arizona State as the big, the two lost Big 12 champ last year in the actual rankings was 12th at the end of the year. So this is so to have Texas Tech ninth. Right. And again, like the actual ACC champ last year, Clemson was 16th and the, and the, the ACC runner up was 10th, right? No, no ACC team, no Big 12 team was higher than 10th last year. So like, we, we know what that looks like, Bill. So like that's, that's kind of what I'm sort of anticipating happening there.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I could see it happening. But I, I also will say that, like, I was just like looking at the Big 12 and what teams have left and the fact that Texas Tech lost that game close to Arizona State with its backup quarterback. I actually feel like that loss didn't do a whole lot to shake up the Big 12 race. I kind of like Texas Tech still plays BYU. That's a banger. But if you look at the rest of Texas Tech schedule, it's pretty easy. It might be like the easiest remaining schedule of like all the Big 12 contenders. They play Oklahoma State, Kansas State, West Virginia and UCF in addition to byu. Like, I don't, I don't see a world where they're worse than 10 and 2. And BYU seems like it's playing with a little bit of a horseshoe up its butt. I don't, I don't know if they're gonna get through the whole season undefeated either. So I, I in my mind, like, yes, Texas Tech has a loss now you knock them down a peg. But I still think they're kind of gonna run away with the Big 12.

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Some things in life are just made for each other. Peanut butter and jelly, Macaroni and cheese Modelo and College Football College football season is Modelo season and the season has officially kicked off. The Modelo recruiter is is back in action looking to reward full time fans who give their all for their team and their school week in and week out. If you're listening to this, you've been recruited. So lace em up and get out there and don't forget to make time for a well deserved ice cold reward because college football wouldn't be the same without you. So grab yourself a Modelo and enjoy the official beer. Sponsor of the College Football Playoff Modelo.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Kyle Whittingham. Man, I don't know what Utah coach Kyle Whittingham was doing last week. That was. I thought Utah was going to roll in that game and they just kept going for it. On fourth down and not making it again, you go to like the success rate breakdown. It's like Utah success rate was so much better than BYU's and Kyle Winningham like coached them out of the game. The game that really is now we're on red alert for I think Obviously Texas Tech. BYU is huge, but there's only two undefeated conference teams in the Big 12. It's BYU and Cincinnati. And they play at Cincinnati on November 22nd.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

And that could be a play in game for the Big 12 championship game.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, it could be. I was like I didn't game it out entirely, but obviously you look at that because they're the two unbeatens left. There's a group, so there's two unbeaten teams, there's three teams with one loss. But those teams don't play each other a bunch the rest of the year. So there's five, there's five teams that, there's only six games between those five teams the rest of the year, which I don't think is that many. So like I really, it does feel like there's a pretty big. Well, I don't know, the top half of the Big 12, I think is like probably beat anybody in the top half for the most part. But once you get below that, there's like ways to pad your resume I think in that conference. And it seems like a lot of these teams are going to get the chance to do that would just help with how their schedules break out the rest of the year. So yeah, Cincinnati, BYU is huge. I like, you know, I'll admit not knowing as much as I should know about the sport. Didn't realize how good Houston was. Like, Houston is very much in the thick of the Big 12 race. And like they play Arizona State and they have like a fairly manageable schedule besides that. Right. So I don't know. I think Texas Tech is going to go there to the, to the baseball title game. But you could have convinced me like any other one of about six or so teams could be the team that plays Texas Tech in that game.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Cincinnati's offense has the best success rate in the Big 12 and nationally the offenses that are ahead of them are Vanderbilt, usc, Indiana, Ohio State and Navy. Like they, they are like a really good offensive team. Right.

[Bill Landis]

And Brendan, that's quarterback in the Big 12, right?

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. I mean there's like so like it's real. It doesn't mean they're gonna definitely go to the Big 12 championship game. But I don't, I don't. There's no. And and now again, like Nebraska, although Nebraska's had a bad loss to Minnesota, like again that they, they played Nebraska to one score in Kansas City in the opener. And it's actually funny, like we can a team, we'll get into the Big Ten stuff a little bit. But when you start talking about like, who really has a chance to like get the 10 and 2 in the big 10, that was a bad loss at Minnesota for Nebraska. Right? Like really bad. But if they can use that for like a. Okay, like that's bottoming out. I know Dylan Raiola got sacked nine times. I'm not saying I think this is going to happen, but if they do, like when you get into the mix of things, that's like the second best non conference win in the Big Ten. Actually it might be the best. I was going to say it's the second best non conference win for a Big Ten team behind Ohio State over Texas. But Cincinnati's ranked ahead of Texas. It might be the best non conference win in the Big Ten. And if Nebraska like that, like a 10 and two Nebraska with the win over a Cincinnati team, that's in the Big 12 title game or a win over a Cincinnati team that's in the playoff. That is incredibly propulsive for Nebraska. And when you're looking for like the fourth Big Ten team and what can you hang it on? Right, well, Michigan lost to Oklahoma. Like they kind of had their chance. USC lost to Notre Dame. They kind of had their chance. Illinois beat Duke. But you know, this Cincinnati win, that's better than what Illinois did beating Duke. And by, by the way, Illinois has a 50 point loss on its resume that it's going to have to try to overcome. So like you go through and like it's just interesting to me. I don't, I don't even. We're the weird the. I was going to call us the king to the north. We love northern college football and I don't in the moment. I certainly did not anticipate that Nebraska, Cincinnati could matter at the end of the year as much as it might when we saw it on the first weekend of the season.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, it's crazy too if you think about like how that game ended.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Right?

[Bill Landis]

It was, it was 20 to 17 and Cincinnati is driving to go win the game. And Brendan Sorsby, his, he has three turnover worthy plays and one interception. And his one interception is with 30 seconds left in the fourth quarter against Nebraska. Like a ball he should not have thrown. And they had like plenty of time to go win that game. And it's like the only mistake he's made, he's made all year. But it's like, like not impossible. I don't know. Cincinnati getting BYU at home, they can win that game they go to. They have to play at Utah and they play tcu. But like based off what it's done so far, like, I don't know, I guess I could see Cincinnati like running the table on the Big 12. And then we're gonna look up at the end of the year and realize that they're one Sourcebee yolo ball at the end of the Nebraska game from being undefeated.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So I will say it feels like. And we'll get to your rankings here, but to me it's like Miami and Texas Tech both lost last week, but I didn't drop them out of my playoff picture. All I did was drop their seating as a result. Which matters. Which of course matters. It's like, oh, the regular season doesn't. It's like that really matters. Like Miami and Texas Tech just made their paths harder if they do get to the playoff by losing these games that people didn't expect Them to lose. There still are consequences for losses. There are very few consequence free losses. Right. Everything matters. Oregon losing the Indiana, I mean it's probably going to cost Oregon to buy. Right. Like that kind of thing really matters. So anyway, I didn't knock them out. Let's get to your rankings and see if. How if those Miami and Texas Tech losses affected you.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, they, they affected me some but they're still, they're still in the field for me. So I have number one Ohio State still. I moved Indiana up to two because like just the thought that we're not going to have a bunch of undefeated conference champs and I think that's going to be undefeated versus undefeated in the Big 12 title game. So the loser will merely fall.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Big Ten title game. Excuse me. I have Alabama 3 as the SEC champ.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

The biggest, this is probably the biggest change for me. I have Georgia tech as the 4 seed now as my ACC champ. I had not even had them in previously.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Welcome. And I don't want to say that I've had Georgia Tech in from week one because I actually dropped them out after the first week. But I did have Georgia Tech in in the preseason and I believe in the wreck. I believe in the wreck. They've been working their way up. But so they've also been. They have a bit of a horseshoe up their butt. They're only. There's only six undefeated teams remaining and so like credit to all of them. Right. The six undefeated teams remaining. See if I can name off top of my head. Right. Or Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A M, byu, Georgia Tech and Navy.

[Bill Landis]

I think that's right.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So. I think that's right. So incredible credit to Georgia Tech. But it did not make me think that Georgia Tech will beat Miami in the ACC title game, which is what my ACC title game would be at the moment.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I don't. That's. And that's probably fair. I like they're going to be this their style of play I think lends itself to closer games. But yeah they have. They. They close with Colorado, close with Clemson, overtime with Wake Forest who's not good close with Duke this past weekend. Somewhat close but like they're going to be favored. They have four ACC games out there. Gonna be favorite in all of them.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

So like I think they're going to to the ACC championship. So I'll agree. I'll predict them to, to beat Miami. So I have Georgia Tech at four. Texas A M is five is my SEC runner up.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

I have Oregon sixth, third Big Ten team Texas Tech, Big 12 champ, seven. I have Georgia as the third SEC team number eight.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

Miami second ACC team at nine.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

Notre Dame at 10.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

Oklahoma at 11 and South Florida at 12.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So I'm looking here and I think we might have all the same teams.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I think we just have them like in a different order.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. Because like, I finally come around on Georgia and Alabama reluctantly, and you have now joined the Georgia Tech hive. And so were 12 for 12. So they have lock it in.

[Bill Landis]

I was a little. I was a little torn like I thought. I was thinking to myself, like, this could end up being a really interesting conversation if it's how it plays out. So like Notre Dame at 10 and 2 and as I was gaming out the SEC a little bit, like I have Oklahoma at 10 and 2 and I have Vanderbilt at 10 and 2. And I wasn't sure exactly how that would sort itself out. I put in Oklahoma because Oklahoma, like the resume with Oklahoma and Vanderbilt within the SEC is actually quite similar. Oklahoma lost to Texas. I like projected a loss to Texas for Vanderbilt. They have a lot of the same wins, but Oklahoma has the win against Michigan and Vanderbilt's like big non conference one is Virginia Tech, who fired his coach. So that was like enough to. To. For me to give Oklahoma that spot. But like, it did get me wondering a little bit. If we talked about Nick. Notre Dame versus the Big Ten and it seems like it's now cleared that hurdle by beating USC, could it still find itself in a Notre Dame versus SEC battle if there's a couple 10 and 2 SEC teams? Yeah, I would. I would. I don't think I'd sleep well if I were Marcus Freeman if that's the case.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I mean, I do. I. I think Notre Dame's in pretty good shape considering where they were. I. I think they're. Nothing's guaranteed. I think they're in pretty good shape. But to. To Wonder about a 10 and 2 versus 10 and 2 showdown again, where it's gonna. A lot's gonna rest on like, well, this. Does Boise State wind up as the Mountain west champ and like, like that win for Notre Dame and how. How does USC end the season? Right. Pits five and two and they're still on Notre Dame schedule. And so there's something that I want to talk about though. So the hard thing. So Miami. Let's talk about this is Miami show. So last year Miami was 101 and 6 and 1 going to Syracuse in the last weekend of the regular season. If they had beaten Syracuse, they would have Gone to the ACC title game and like almost assuredly made the playoff. I think because SMU was favored in that Big 12 title game and lost and still made the playoffs. So if Miami had been 111 and gone to the AC title, ACC title game and lost to SMU, I think they still might have made it. But then they didn't make the ACC title game and then didn't make the playoff. So the point is Miami has. So they were, they lost at Georgia Tech. Was their, their early loss right to make them 10 and 1, 6 and 1 before they lost to Syracuse. This is Miami schedule the rest of the way. Stanford, who's 3 and 4 at SMU, who's 5 and 2. Syracuse, who is 3 and 4. North Carolina State, who's 4 and 3 at Virginia Tech, who's 2 and 5. And at 5 and 2 Pitt on the last weekend of the regular season, they're make the schedule makers. Consecutive years are making Miami come north on the last Saturday in November to end the regular season. Now last year it was in a dome, so it didn't matter, but they lost because Kyle McCord chucked it all over on them. Pitt's decent now. Pitt also was good for the first half last year and Philip fell apart. If pit doesn't fall apart, like, part of me is like, well, okay, they lost. It was at home. But Louisville and Jeff Braum, like, everyone wants Jeff Braum now for an SEC job. Jeff Brahms a good coach. You saw what he did at Purdue. It's like I'm almost on a Friday night, like, even though it was at home, like, I'm almost a little disappointed they could, like, what should we have sniffed out that loss for Miami instead of me being like 12, 0 baby, like that. Now that's not a crazy loss, but do you trust Miami? Do you trust Mario Cristobal like to run this. And it's, it's already, it's preemptively hilarious to me that they could once again be 10 and 1, 6 and 1 on the accident, come north on the last weekend of the regular season than to lose to one of our Northern ACC teams.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I mean, I, I mean at smu I think could be tricky, and I think the pick game could be tricky the rest of the schedule, probably not. You're playing a team that already fired his coach, a team that wants to fire his coach, a team that's playing with his backup quarterback, and a team that has an interim coach at Stanford. So, like you should get four wins there and it's a Matter of. Do you, do you beat SMU and pit? I could absolutely see Miami doing that. But the thing that's different like, like say if they lose again, but it's not a loss, that keeps them out of the ACC title game, which is possible. I, I think they're probably fine because the other thing that was working against them last year is like they didn't, they didn't have any good wins. They didn't, they didn't play a single ranked team last year and this year they have a win over Notre Dame and they have a win over South Florida. So like I think 10 and 2 Miami is probably still in the playoff.

[Doug Lesmerises]

But then if they don't win the ACC then. So you're saying if they 10 and 2 Miami, that makes the ACC title game or doesn't make the ACC title game.

[Bill Landis]

That does make the ACC title game. I think if they, if they don't, I think they're sweating it out a.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Little bit because then it's one of the. So yeah, because then they can't be 10 and 2 Miami. They're either 112 Miami who wins the ACC and is in automatically or they're 10 and 3 Miami. But are they not penalized for the loss the way SMU wasn't penalized for the loss last year?

[Bill Landis]

Right over them? You're not gonna.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Right. That could be a really interesting head to head. Yeah. Keep your eye on Louisville. Louisville's only conference losses in overtime to Virginia. They're five and one Boston College, Virginia Tech, Cal, Clemson, SMU to end the season and then Kentucky and non conference game like keep your eye on Louisville too. Keep your eye on Louisville. Let's talk about Big Ten though. So just real quick on the Big Ten there are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Big Ten teams currently with two overall losses. Right. So I'm doing overall losses for your playoff resume.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

So all those. Those teams have five games left left. Here are how many games they play against other two loss teams or one of the big three of Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. Okay. Believe it or not, and it's just funny and it's just like people don't care about this, but my daughter is a senior at Northwestern. She would love to go watch Northwestern playing a bowl game. Northwestern is 5 and 2. All five of their remaining games are against other two lost teams right now. Yeah, so they have like banger. So Northwestern. All five of their games. Nebraska, usc, Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois. Like there's not a guaranteed win in there. It's like all right. And so hey, it's Northwestern's 5 and 2 and it's like yeah, but they could really use a Wisconsin in there in the second half of the season. They don't have it. So all five of theirs are USC has three games against other two lost teams and an Oregon game. Iowa has three games against other two loss teams and an Oregon game. Nebraska has three games against two lost teams, Minnesota has two games against two lost teams and an Oregon game. Illinois has two games against two lost teams, Washington has one game against the two last team and an Oregon game and Michigan has one game against the two loss team and an Ohio State game. So like Illinois, it has to beat Washington and Northwestern, but has like a very. And it's a huge game this weekend and we'll talk about it on the Friday pick show. What Illinois at Washington is huge for the Big Ten. But like you can see Illinois's way to 10 and 2. Nebraska has Northwestern, USC, Iowa, but like you can see their way to 10 and 2. Right. They just got to get their stuff together.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, but I don't know like, and I saw Brett Bielema this week, like talking about how they could have a compelling playoff resume because they only lost number one and number two, I think losing by the margin they lost is prohibitive. Like I don't, I don't, I don't, I don't think they're getting a sniff at 10 and two because of how much they lost. Indiana by Albatross.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Right. We're back to the Albatross Range and like unless they didn't go to the playoffs, unless Duke wins the acc. Right. So like it is. Which is not going to happen. So like I, like I agree with that. Right. I. That's, that's probably the worst 10 and 2 case in the big 10. What? Actually I think like the case to get A, a fourth Big Ten team in is probably one of these two lost teams wins out to go 10 and two. But it's one of the two lost teams that has Oregon on the schedule. And if USC is 10 and 2 with a win over Oregon, if Iowa is, if Minnesota is, if Washington is right, that's in. You're 10 and 2 and one of your wins is Oregon. And then it's like, oh no, 10 and 2 Oregon. Oregon who lost to Indiana and now lost to this other team. Are we sure they're in. But Oregon's current stature in the sport, if they're blowing everybody out along the way, like would you feel good about their chance or are you now down to point me to Oregon's best win? Well, here's the other thing though. No, here's the other thing we're talking about there. They have four games against two lost teams the rest of the way. So if they lose to Washington, but they have wins over Minnesota, Iowa and USC and Minnesota, Iowa and USC are all like eight win teams, nine win teams. I actually think 10 and two Oregon's in. But Oregon has a bunch of like tougher games than you realize. And Oregon sort of this Is, and now this brings us back to the. Is the Big Ten two top heavy for its own good? If Oregon finishes 11 and one with wins over all those teams, probably a fourth Big Ten team's not getting in. If they lose one of those games, I think they're almost certainly probably still in, but the team that beat them is probably into.

[Bill Landis]

I, I don't know. I guess I, I would, it depends on how many 10 and two teams there are. Like, how many 10 and two teams is the SEC spitting out? But now it could be like three or six.

[Doug Lesmerises]

But, but like, so, but why are wins over Tennessee and Ole Miss and Vanderbilt and LSU in South Carolina better than wins over Minnesota, Iowa and usc?

[Bill Landis]

I don't think that they are, but I, I, I'm not naive enough to believe they won't be viewed that way.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I am, I'm naive enough.

[Bill Landis]

Like, I love to live in the world that you live in. I, and I don't think it's an automatic. I think it'd be a really uncomfortable spot because then you're a 10 and 2 Oregon with a loss to Washington. You're trying to convince people that your best win is a Penn State team that then lost to UCLA and Northwestern after you beat them, like, and then fired their coach. Right. I just don't, I don't know. I think, I think they're probably fine because I don't know that I'm super convinced that the SEC is going to spit out six, 10 win teams. But that's kind of the nightmare scenario. It's like you're 10 and two Oregon with not much, not really anything in the way of a good win being compared to like, Oklahoma, Georgia, Vanderbilt with 10 wins. And I don't know that I'd want to be doing that.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So this is, you know how I do this, right. I get in fights with people. So, like, the was the Wall Street Journal wrote a story after Saturday's games. Like, the SEC is, is eating its own or something like that. Right. And so, like, I quote, tweeted that story and said, like, alternate headline, the SEC is mid. And then like one of the authors of the story for the Wall Street Journal, who's a very good college football writer, Rachel Bachmann, like, responded to my thing, it was like, well, what about this? And what about the AP rankings? And then I was like, well, the AP rankings are not to be used that way because that's, they're not good enough to be like, well, but the, but The SEC has nine teams in the top 25 in the Big 10s four, it's like, I don't care. That is not what AP rankings are to be used for. Like, they are not evidence of anything in the moment. They are historical markers. They are. They are not like, like, the end all be all right. Because, like, we should. We should know that. So my point, though, here is like, the idea that the SEC is eating itself. Like, I don't think that's wrong, but the Big Ten is also eating itself alive because Illinois over usc, USC over Michigan, Michigan over Washington, right? All of. All of that's the same thing. Like, the same thing is happening. Like, hey, like, hey, Nebraska, we think. You think Nebraska has an inside line to a playoff. And it's like, yeah, Minnesota has something to say about that. Does that mean Nebraska stinks? No, I think the brat. They played the bad game. They have problems. They're not perfect, but Minnesota is pretty darn good. Now, the other thing is like, well, sure to help the. If Minnesota hadn't lost Cal, but also, like, Cal in the moment can be decent and like, Koi Perich kicked a punt return and like, stuff happens, but it's. It's the imp. And also Old Miss should have lost to Washington State. So it's just like, one of those things. What matters and what doesn't. My overall point of this is, and you are right to say I'm probably naive to think it, both these leagues are eating themselves equally. But the issue is that the Big Ten has more good teams at the top. And if Oregon just puts its foot down and says, that's it, we're not, not losing anymore. Indiana, all these two lost teams. Indiana doesn't play any of them down the stretch. Indiana plays all the bad teams the rest of the way in the Big Ten, and the only one that Ohio State plays is Michigan. So, like, all. So Ohio State and Indiana kind of aren't going to matter in this picture very much. The only thing that Ohio State matters is Michigan beats Ohio State. Now all of a sudden you have 10 and two. Michigan with an Ohio State win. They're in for sure. But it's like one of those things. It's like, so, like, but UCLA's defense, but UCLA has four losses. So, like, UCLA is not making the playoff. But now they're probably just good enough. Now.

[Bill Landis]

They control their own destiny to get to Indianapolis.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I'm not. I'm done covering college football. I can't live in a world where the Big Ten champ lost in New Mexico. I cannot live in that world. Owen. Owen. Three in the preseason and then you win the Big Ten title. I don't care how good of a story is. I can't. I can't. Like, every person, every Mississippi State fan in the country is going to be in my Twitter mentions, and I just can't. I'd have to stop.

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[Bill Landis]

We need Sig to take care of business this weekend is what we need.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Why would you. Why would you even bring that good luck to ucla? Why would you do that?

[Bill Landis]

It's just very funny. If you look at the Big Ten standings and, like, who's in the top? Like, Northwestern and UCLA and Maryland, I think, are all in the top half and, like, Penn State's way at the bottom. Illinois is, like, in the middle. Yeah. Nebraska's at the bottom because it is.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Like, you can go through it. It's like, well, guess what? UCLA lost unlv. You know, he's pretty good. And you say LA lost to Utah. Utah actually is pretty good. But they gave a game away against byu. Right. But then it's like they lost New Mexico, too. So, like, okay, this is not good for my health. Those are our plans. Anything else to say about this? What do you guys say?

[Bill Landis]

Well, I'm just curious. Like, I. This is not like, the end all be all. I just, like, as I'm formulating my thoughts for this, I do like to take a peek at, like, there's so many charts, so many college football charts on a Monday and Tuesday, if you're perusing Twitter. But like, the. The four. The four quadrants, right? The EPA play, it's just interesting the way it breaks down because there's not, like, obviously there are three very complete teams in the Big Ten, but, like, also Michigan is, like, in the complete team tier, and Washington's, like, butting right up against it. And if you look like the sec, like, Alabama is in there, A M is in there, Missouri is in there, and like, that's it. Tennessee is, like, kind of butting right up against it. Georgia is pretty close to butting up against it, but like, all of Tennessee, Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, like, profile is like, good offense, bad defense, teams. It's just like, it's. It's not the only way. I think you should, like, like, sort of like, frame your point of view on the sport. But it is an interesting snapshot as you try to figure out, like. Like, exactly how good is the SEC with all these teams up on each other.

[Doug Lesmerises]

No, but I think in the end, like, it really is. It's not like there's 11 SEC teams in a good quadrant and three Big Ten teams like that. It' much closer than you would say. And like I there was a quadrant I was looking at and four teams that had pretty similar statistical resumes in terms of like good offense, like the down to down is good, but like a defense that you have major questions about. A little foursome was Cincinnati, Washington, Tennessee, Ole Miss.

[Bill Landis]

Yes.

[Doug Lesmerises]

And then just like I think we probably looked at the same chart. Were you looking at the chart where the guy drew this circle around these are my playoff teams in this chart.

[Bill Landis]

I'm looking at it right now.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, but Davis, you know, you know.

[Bill Landis]

You know who else is in that group, funnily enough, is the group is like it's like Washington, Tennessee, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Florida State.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Oh God. So like it's one of those things like right. Not statistics. There's always outliers.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

Difference.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

What can end with this point is, do you think the average college football pundit thinks of Washington and Cincinnati the same way they think of Ole Miss in Tennessee?

[Bill Landis]

No.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay. But I think you could argue based on not just that statistical correlation, but also their resume and who they've beaten and who they've lost to and what they've earned on the field. I think they're much closer than people realize. And. And like, if. If you tried. If I tried to tell an sec, oh, my God, I'm trying to envision doing it. It's like trying to explain fire to a caveman. Like, if you explain to an SEC pundit that Cincinnati's as good as Ole Miss, they're just gonna grunt at you and hit you over the head with a stick. Like, I can't. Let's know. What's that conversation? They're not going to believe it. They're not going to believe that it's true, even though, actually, I think it is true.

[Bill Landis]

You ever play around on CFB graphs and just make hypothetical games?

[Doug Lesmerises]

No. Oh, no. I didn't know you could make hypothetical games. Oh, that's a podcast sometime.

[Bill Landis]

I'm gonna do it right now.

[Doug Lesmerises]

You're gonna do a Cincinnati Ole Miss hypothetical game.

[Bill Landis]

The projected score, CFB graphs, which is Parker Fleming, like his. His advanced analytics. The projected points for Ole Miss Cincinnati. Let me do it. Neutral, neutral site. Ole Miss 31, Cincinnati 28.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay, so it's a banger. Is. Is. Is that what we think? But so we want.

[Bill Landis]

That is not what the college football world thinks.

[Doug Lesmerises]

We want to act like Georgia's a bunch of dogs for beating Ole Miss and nobody gives a crap that Nebraska beat Cincinnati. Like, is that. That's. I think much. That's pretty close to how people would view that. And it's like actually beating Ole Miss and beating Cincinnati are pretty equal. So keep that in mind as you evaluate Nebraska and Georgia. I'm not saying that Nebraska should be ranked ahead of Georgia. Nebraska just had a bad loss. I'm just saying check yourself.

[Bill Landis]

So I wanna. So it's cfb-granges.com and you can click on matchups and you can make any hypothetical game you want, which now I Feel like this is what you're going to be doing for the next 24 hours.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, I can't do any pods the rest of the week and I'm. And I'm gonna cherry pick the results that I like the best. I'm gonna be like, minnesota would beat Vanderbilt. Minnesota would beat Vanderbilt. If I find one of those, you're never gonna hear the end of it.

[Bill Landis]

So I'm looking it up right now.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I just need a little confirmation. I actually don't think, because I know Vanderbilt's offensive statistical profile is so good that I'm sure it has Vanderbilt beating Minnesota.

[Bill Landis]

It does. By nine points on a neutral field.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay, so that's okay. But I believe in CJ Although Clarkley is actually a good coach too. Like, I'm not gonna like lead my anti SEC stuff with Vanderbilt. It's like, good luck to Vanderbilt. But also like, are they really the 10th best team in the country?

[Bill Landis]

For real? No. Now this is what the podcast is. Vanderbilt, Washington, one point.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. Yeah. So. So this is the hard thing. I almost kept. I almost kept Washington after a loss to Michigan in my playoff because I had Washington in the playoff last week. And the question is this. Washington was stopped by an excellent Ohio State defense and then they were stopped by the Michigan defense. Williams was throwing the ball.

[Bill Landis]

Michigan Short Fields was 7. 7. And then the game broke open.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So, so is that. Is that like, is. Is it one of three things? Is it. Michigan is also actually a really good defense. Yeah, they got smoked by USC the week before. But actually they're. They're the Michigan defense that they've been. And they're closer to like a top quadrant defense that actually is not as good as Ohio State. But you could compare them in that group with Ohio State, which then means, okay, Washington's struggled to score points against two excellent defenses. Is that the outcome? Is the outcome. You have any defense with a pulse in Washington's done and they've. And like, so Michigan, it qualifies as a defense with a pulse, but they're not Ohio State and Washington couldn't do anything with them. And it's like, okay, Washington, I've been overrating Washington. I can love talking about the Huskies. And it's all. It's a facade. They only do it against bad teams. Or the third option is a very talented young quarterback, lost his mind for 10 minutes and the game completely flipped. But if he doesn't lose his mind the rest of the year, Washington to go could go 10 and 2 and beat Oregon. Like I. And I'M not sure. I think all three of those would be possible. I'm not blind to the fact that maybe I'm overrating Washington and any decent defense is going to give them a lot of trouble. I think that's certainly possible, but I might be like a third, a third, a third. Actually Michigan's defense is really good. Actually Washington's offense is overrated. Or actually it was a blip because we have blips in this sport and it was a blip. That doesn't really tell you all that much about the Washington offense or the Michigan defense. And then we go back to where we were, and back to where we were is maybe Michigan and maybe Washington has a chance to beat Oregon. Would you go a third or third or third on those three possibilities?

[Bill Landis]

I would, yes. By the way, Washington projected to beat Ole Miss on a neutral field.

[Doug Lesmerises]

There we go. So maybe because Washington beat Washington State by 40 and Ole Miss beat him by seven. Okay, so that's what we do on Tuesday nights. Again, we're not that far away from this being like actual conversations about real rankings, so we'll appreciate that and enjoy that when it comes. For now, thanks you guys for being part of this. We have Ohio State's on a bye week this week, but we'll have our national picks on Friday and we will welcome our friend ari Wasserman from On3 to talk about the national title race on a show for Thursday here on this YouTube channel and on your podcast feed. So for now, he's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Lee Maurice, and that was the Bill and Doug Show. Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because MultiCare has been here guided by a single purpose, making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding health care access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn [e-mail] It's Cybersecurity Awareness Month and LifeLock is here with tips to help protect your identity, use strong passwords, set up multi factor authentication and report phishing scams. And for comprehensive identity protection, LifeLock is your best choice. LifeLock alerts you to suspicious uses of your personal information and also fixes identity theft, guaranteed or your money back. Stay smart, stay safe, and stay protected with a 30 day free [e-mail] Specialoffer terms apply.