The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk

Episode: College Football Playoff Bracket – Big Ten Eating Itself Just Like the SEC; Cincinnati Getting Closer

Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis
Date: October 22, 2025
Main Theme:
A deep-dive, playoff-focused episode analyzing how losses across the top college football conferences (Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, ACC) are impacting playoff projections. With Ohio State atop, Doug and Bill break down conference chaos, under-the-radar teams like Cincinnati, the committee’s mindset, and why both the SEC and Big Ten may be “eating themselves.” The episode includes their updated playoff brackets, discussion of recent pivotal games, and debates about bias and team quality.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Playoff Projection Season: Increased Uncertainty

• The hosts reflect on the growing difficulty of projecting the final College Football Playoff (CFP) field as more ranked teams take unexpected losses.

  “Every week I sit down to do it, and it’s harder and harder to figure out which 11 teams are going to go in those FBS spots.” — Bill Landis [02:55]

2. Recent Shake-ups: Major Teams Lose

• Three undefeated teams fell last week: Miami, Texas Tech, and Ole Miss.
• Doug admits self-deprecatingly that despite disliking perpetual SEC powerhouses, “Georgia beating Ole Miss mattered...it wasn’t like Georgia had a fluky win.” — Doug Lesmerises [05:03]

3. The Playoff Bracket Debate: SEC and Big Ten in the Spotlight

• Doug and Bill reveal and discuss their weekly playoff rankings, noting:
  • Doug’s current top 4: Ohio State, Texas A&M, Indiana (as Big Ten title-game loser), and Miami. Alabama and Georgia are just outside.
  • Doug laments including so many SEC teams:

    “I hate myself.” — Doug Lesmerises [06:11]

  • SEC is likely to secure at least one playoff bye; the scenario for a SEC bye-less playoff "is dead now" after key losses in other conferences. [06:46]
  • The Big Ten could get three teams, but two-loss chaos makes four unlikely.

4. The Big 12 Picture & Texas Tech’s Path

• Texas Tech’s loss (with backup QB) might not doom them given a favorable remaining schedule, but might cap their seeding and mean no home playoff game.
  • Bill: “If that’s a two loss champ, you’re probably right…if it’s a one loss Big 12 champ they’re getting a home game.” [11:46]
• The Texas Tech vs. BYU match-up and the November 22 BYU–Cincinnati game are circled as critical for determining the Big 12 title and playoff implications.
  • Doug: “That could be a play-in game for the Big 12 championship game.” [16:45]

5. Cincinnati’s Rise and National Perception

• Cincinnati ranks nationally in offensive success rate, positioning them as more than a dark horse.
  • “Cincinnati’s offense has the best success rate in the Big 12…” — Doug [18:04]
• Discussion of the Nebraska-Cincinnati opener and how early results might become unexpectedly pivotal in playoff resumes.

6. Miami & the ACC: Do You Trust Mario Cristobal?

• Miami’s path to an ACC title—and a playoff spot—remains open but precarious.
• Doug recounts last year’s collapse and expresses skepticism about Miami closing out necessary north-bound wins late in the season due to their schedule—ending at Pitt in potentially bad weather.
  • “Do you trust Mario Cristobal like to run this?” — Doug [27:52]
• Bill argues that this year, unlike last, Miami boasts better wins (including Notre Dame), helping even a 10–2 Miami’s playoff case if they reach the title game. [28:17]

7. Big Ten’s Cannibalization & The Path to Four Playoff Teams

• There are eight two-loss Big Ten teams; hosts analyze how scheduling quirks (e.g., Northwestern’s five games all against similar teams) will shake out.
• Theoretical ways a two-loss team could sneak in—but only if that team has a win over Oregon down the stretch, or if Oregon itself handles a brutal slate and finishes strong.
• The Big Ten’s “eating itself” dynamic is compared directly to the SEC’s, challenging the myth of SEC exclusivity in this regard.
  • “The SEC is eating itself. Like, I don’t think that’s wrong. But the Big Ten is also eating itself alive.” — Doug [37:33]

8. The Committee & Southern Bias

• Ongoing frustration at the narrative that SEC teams are always more deserving due to AP poll inertia and supposed depth.
  • Doug blasts the use of AP rankings as “not evidence of anything in the moment.” [37:33]
• The reality: both SEC and Big Ten have complex resumes, and conference-wide attrition is real for both.

9. Analytics vs. Perception: How 'Good' Are the 'Good' Teams?

• The hosts reference advanced stats (e.g., CFB Graphs, Parker Fleming’s quadrants) showing similar offensive/defensive profiles between teams often regarded differently, e.g., Ole Miss vs. Cincinnati.

  “If you tried to explain to an SEC pundit that Cincinnati’s as good as Ole Miss, they’re just gonna grunt at you and hit you over the head with a stick.” — Doug [46:25]

• They play with a tool for hypothetical matchups:
  • Ole Miss vs. Cincinnati on a neutral field: 31–28 Ole Miss.
  • Vanderbilt projected to narrowly beat Washington—underscoring how misleading some narratives can be. [48:08]

10. Wrap: The Challenge of Understanding Washington’s Ceiling

• Doug ponders whether Washington’s recent offensive struggles are a blip, an indicator of facing elite defenses, or a sign of an overrated offense. [49:03]
• Bill notes Washington would be projected to beat Ole Miss on a neutral field, again highlighting the fine margins in the current playoff picture. [50:47]

Memorable Quotes

• “I hate myself.”
  — Doug Lesmerises, on having to include so many SEC teams in his bracket [06:11]
• “The SEC is mid.”
  — Doug Lesmerises, challenging Southern football bias [37:33]
• “Do you trust Mario Cristobal like to run this?”
  — Doug Lesmerises, on Miami’s playoff viability [27:52]
• “Both these leagues are eating themselves equally.”
  — Doug Lesmerises, on parity/chaos at the top of Power 5 [37:33]
• “If you try to explain fire to a caveman… If you explain to an SEC pundit that Cincinnati’s as good as Ole Miss, they’re just gonna…hit you over the head with a stick.”
  — Doug Lesmerises, on perception gaps between leagues [46:25]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:26] – Opening overview of playoff projection process
• [05:03] – Recap of recent major upsets affecting the bracket
• [06:11] – Rankings revealed; Doug’s struggle with SEC dominance
• [10:00] – Notre Dame’s impact on Big Ten playoff hopes
• [11:46] – Texas Tech’s loss, Big 12 championship, home/road playoff debate
• [16:15] – Cincinnati and BYU highlighted as Big 12’s emerging forces
• [18:04] – Cincinnati’s statistical profile & underrated playoff case
• [21:46] – Bill’s playoff bracket: Georgia Tech up, Miami & Texas Tech’s fate
• [27:52] – Miami’s remaining schedule, northbound concerns, and trust in Cristobal
• [32:40] – Scheduling madness for two-loss Big Ten teams
• [37:33] – Rant against SEC bias and “league cannibalization”
• [46:25] – Analytics-based “SEC vs. everyone else” argument
• [49:03] – What’s wrong with Washington’s offense?
• [50:47] – Playoff projections by advanced stats

Episode Flow, Language & Tone

The show is conversational, fast-paced, and infused with self-deprecating humor. Doug regularly leans into his skepticism of national SEC bias, while both hosts display deep knowledge of team schedules, advanced stats, and committee politics. Banter and hypothetical matchups keep things engaging and relatable for serious college football fans.

For Listeners Who Missed It

• This episode gives a robust, data-driven, yet irreverent breakdown of this year’s chaotic playoff picture, especially the mounting parity in the Big Ten and SEC.
• Key takeaways: The playoff race is more wide open and complicated than ever, analytics and schedule quirks are as relevant as brand names, and underdog teams like Cincinnati may be much closer to the “elite” than most realize.
• The bracket is still a moving target—and the debates are only just heating up.