
Big Ten football features three games this week between 5-2 teams. That's Illinois at Washington, Minnesota at Iowa and Northwestern at Nebraska. The winners will remain alive in College Football Playoff discussions.
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Doug Maurice
Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. National Pick Six games this week. Douglas Maurice along with Bill Landis. Landis. I was terrible last week. I was 2 and 5. You were 3 and 4. Can we turn it around?
Bill Landis
I think so. This feels like the week. Let's do it. We both. We both have losing records. I think for the. Was it this first time in a while? I think we both had losing records.
Doug Maurice
I love when you say things like that because it's the first time in a while that you've had A losing record. And I've had a losing record the whole season, so thank you for saying it that way.
Bill Landis
Sure.
Doug Maurice
We. So you are 28 and 29 on the year against the spread. Now I'm 25 and 32. So I gotta pull my head out. Six games this week. We're going to start with a game in the American Athletic Conference, South Florida at Memphis. Then we have three Big Ten games that we to get into. Northwestern, Nebraska, Illinois, Washington and Iowa, Minnesota. And then we'll hit on two SEC games at the end. But this, we've been sort of tracking this American race. Landis and South Florida at Memphis at noon on Saturday remains one of these games that really matters. Memphis is a home underdog getting five and a half. And part of this is like it, it got a little weird last week. Memphis was upset by uab and that was the first loss of the season for Memphis. UAB was coming off the firing of coach Trent Dilfer. Alex Mortensen, the son of the late, great ESPN Football insider Chris Mortensen was the interim coach. They won their first game. Memphis's quarterback got hurt in that game. And they put in a true freshman who is a top 150 national recruit that Memphis beat Florida for. This was like maybe AJ Hill was maybe the biggest recruiting win in Memphis history. And Ryan, is it Silver Field or Silverfield Field? Yeah, the Fields and the Fells get me sometimes. I'll admit Ryan Silverfield has been a little like about who's going to be quarterback this week. Is it going to be Brendan Lewis who'd been the starter? Is he going to be healthy enough or is it going to be A.J. hill as a true freshman? Is it maybe going to be somebody else? I'm actually on alert for like an AJ Hill announcement this week. Possibly Landis of this is a 6 foot 4 guy from Georgia who had SEC offers who picked Memphis and college football might be talking about him next week.
Bill Landis
Yeah, I, I could see that happening. Do you know? So Ryan Silverfield, his name, like he is among the most highly thought of G6 coaches. Right? And his name. And his name comes up a lot when there are jobs open. You'll see his name on some lists even now. Not the top name, but like a name on a list when teams are looking for coaches. I don't know why.
Doug Maurice
Because he's friends with the media.
Bill Landis
Well, like I was just looking through some stuff to like try to get a feel for, for like what this Memphis program is actually about. So Mike Norvell, who's About to be fired as Florida State's head coach. In his last three seasons at Memphis, he went to the AAC championship game and he won it in 2019. Silverfield took over in 2020 and he hasn't gone back. Like they have not been to the conference title game with Silverfield. And do you know what his record is against ranked American Athletic Conference teams?
Doug Maurice
I do not.
Bill Landis
One in four.
Doug Maurice
Okay. He sticks friend of the media. I don't. So. So. But this. So, but he. So Memphis's stay is playing to stay in the race in the American, which means they're playing to stay in the race for the group of six playoff spot. But he's also staying in the race for a Power 4 job. Is that a great motivator? Do it for coach so he can make more money at another school.
Bill Landis
Both these coaches. Both these coaches are coaching to. To get people.
Doug Maurice
That's true.
Bill Landis
Alex Golish, I think more realistically than.
Doug Maurice
Ryan Silverfield, Alex Goldash might have one. Like he. Is he not. I thought he was maybe like the betting favorite for Florida or something that I saw.
Bill Landis
I. I don't know. I don't, I don't think Florida. So Florida like clearly wants Lane Kiffin, but if they don't get Lane, I don't know what they're going to do. And I can't imagine Goal is just too far down the list once they get past Kiffin. Yeah. Yeah.
Doug Maurice
So Navy, South Florida and Tulane are all undefeated in the American. Memphis, North Texas, East Carolina and Temple all have one loss. I mean they, we should be doing Temple picks on this show and they blew it against Navy a couple weeks ago and so we can't. Seth Hennigan at Memphis took over as a starting quarterback when he was a freshman several years ago and was a four year starter and he was pretty good right away as a freshman. I think they won like six games his freshman year. Like they were ready for that. I just wonder if this AJ Hill thing has a chance to be a boost for them and that it's one of those things. They. It wasn't their plan. Brendan Lewis is a quarter transfer from Nevada. Like, it wasn't their plan. Even like in the off season when Ryan Silverfield talked about it, it's like, you know, you want to have a quarterback for the future and I think you want to add an experienced guy. But A.J. hill last week when he came in was 13 of 25 for 175 yards. One touchdown, one pick. And so I am. You are scaring me off a Little bit of Ryan Silverfield because I believe again, your quote was, he stinks. But I'm gonna ride the freshman quarterback at home and I'm gonna take Memphis 31, 28.
Bill Landis
I've also been trying to pay more attention to what teams have actually done against the spread this year. Both of these teams, both of these teams are 6 and 1 against the spread this year. Oh my God. Yeah, Pretty good. More of UFS, more of USF's games have gone over. Most of Memphis's games have gone under.
Doug Maurice
Statistically, Memphis's defense is pretty good. Statistically better than us?
Bill Landis
Yeah, yeah. Slightly better than usf. But some teams have thrown the ball on Memphis a little bit. Some of that could be game state, but if you look at just sort of like the passing yards and passing efficiency teams have thrown on them a little bit. And I think USF will in this game too. In addition to running it, I think USF wins big. I have, I got the bulls, 35, 20.
Doug Maurice
Oh my.
Bill Landis
Okay.
Doug Maurice
Like, I don't, I, I don't want to get off the Bulls because. Go, go. Alex Golish Central Ohio NATIVE I, I see it as little, I think it might be a little bit of a spot that Memphis. Memphis is ticked. They shouldn't a lot. I mean, they lost to a team that fired coach.
Bill Landis
They were 24 point favorites I think in that game and lost.
Doug Maurice
So like their quarterback got hurt and they got upset by an emotional underdog and now they're home in a must win game. And if you're anything like, if you're a good program, you have to reset yourself here and figure this out. And the difference of putting a true freshman quarterback in the game when somebody gets hurt versus giving him a whole week of preparation, I think could be vast. And so we'll see. We're going head to head here. We'll see. Let's get to the Big Ten. There are. So there are seven Big Ten games this week and Ohio State and USC for instance, are not playing. Every Big Ten game has some kind of playoff implications except for Rutgers, Purdue, ucla, Indiana. Indiana is a playoff team and they got to keep winning and UCLA has won three straight. And like it's at Indiana and they're a big favorite. But Kurt Signetti is not going to let the Hoosiers sleep on this, so that matters. Michigan, Michigan State, 7:30. This is obviously a rivalry. Michigan as a two loss team, one of the eight, two loss teams in the Big Ten. They've got to stay in the race. They have to keep winning. Until they get to Ohio State. So that's a big game. Oregon, Wisconsin, Oregon, again, like, you know, they're in good shape, but they can't get upset at home by Wisconsin. But then the three games that really matter, I would say 12 of the 18 teams in the Big Ten are still in the playoff race because I would include UCLA in that race because as you have pointed out, UCLA controls its own destiny to get to the Big Ten title game. So UCLA can win an automatic bid to the playoff. And then there are 11 other teams with two overall losses or fewer. So, like, everybody in the Big Ten except Maryland, Penn State, Rutgers, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State can still be thinking about the playoffs, Bill, in week nine. It is not a crazy thing for their fan base to be talking about that this week. Isn't that cool?
Bill Landis
Yeah, it is cool. You know, if you gave me or strapped me to a lie detector and asked me, like, do I think many of these teams will make the playoff? I'll tell you no. But I think it's great that their hopes are still alive, especially like. No, I think, like, Nebraska season.
Doug Maurice
Right.
Bill Landis
Has probably not gone exactly how they wanted to thus far, but, like, they're still alive for, like, the thing they wanted to achieve. Right? Yeah. So it's very cool. No, that, that is. That is the. The added benefit. I think everyone always was worried about the playoff, like, ruining the regular season. I just think it enhances it because we have this situation where, where these fan bases can, you know, what, how. However realistic you think it is. I, I think rightfully look. Look at their schedule and think to themselves, like, if we do this, we have a shot to make it. I do think that's fun.
Doug Maurice
And they've been good enough so far that. To say, like, man, if we went out, it's not. Close your eyes at the top of the hill on your bike and go down the hill and. And. And hope that you don't run into a tree. Like, you have some control of it and you've been a good team and you have things that you do well, and you have to find a way. So the three games that we're actually going to pick this week are the three games that are between two lost Big Ten teams. So I think there are. Yeah, there are eight of them that have two overall losses, and of six of those, eight are playing each other. So again, in the playo, tough race. And again, it's what it. And then if you're out, then you can still try to win eight games. You can still try to make a bowl. There's still lots of things that these type of programs can feel good about. But Northwestern, Nebraska, Illinois, Washington and Minnesota Iowa are all games between five and two teams. And none of those teams are making the playoff with three losses, Bill. So the three losers of these games, when next week I come on and I try to say, oh, man, there's 16 teams in the Big Ten still in the playoff race, you're gonna say, doug. No, they're not. Because if you're 5 and 3, you're not in a playoff race. Right. So, like, these three games are huge, right?
Bill Landis
They're huge. They're drinking. Yeah, yeah. They're, they're. And they're all, they're all like pretty tough places to play, too.
Doug Maurice
Yes, they are.
Bill Landis
Nebraska at Washington at Iowa.
Doug Maurice
Yeah.
Bill Landis
Yeah.
Doug Maurice
So we're going to start with Northwestern at Nebraska because this is also a noon game. There are three Big Ten new games this week. UCLA at Indiana, Northwestern at Nebraska, Rutgers at Purdue, Northwestern at Nebraska. Would it surprise you, since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, Nebraska, Northwestern have played 13 times. Do you want to guess what the breakdown is in those head to head matchups? 13 games.
Bill Landis
7, 6 Northwestern, 76 Nebraska.
Doug Maurice
But like not, you know, it's just a reminder. It's like, hey, maybe Tom Osborne, like, oh, I don't know, like, whatever. Dennis Green. It's like, no, it's like this. These have. This has been like a really good competitive series. I don't know what to think about Nebraska. Did you. So I went back and I rewatched Nebraska, Minnesota. And Dylan Raiola got sacked nine times in that game. Matt Rule was talking this week that he thought, he said, I think he thought Dylan Raiola avoided like another three or four sacks. He put three of those six sacks on the running backs for their blitz pickup. But also early in that game, Dylan Raiola had a play where he was falling down on his face and put his hand on the ground and flipped the ball underhan to a guy for a catch. And he had another play where he was rolling out and threw the ball left handed to a guy for a catch. And they called him. It was a Friday night game. They called him Baby Mahomes in the commercial leading into that. And he leaned into the Baby Mahomes stuff. And I think part of the Baby Mahomes stuff is like, I'm not letting go of this ball. I'll take nine sacks. And even I think like Mark Gronowski talking about Iowa, Minnesota this week. I think the Iowa quarterback was asked about Minnesota sacking Dylan Raiola nine times last week. And Mark Ranowski said something like, well, I think that quarterback held onto the ball a little bit and then everybody was like, oh, shade. It's like, well, he's right. So I actually, it's like one of those things again. It's like the singles hitter who hits a home run and starts swinging for the fences. Dylan Raiola made a couple baby Mahomes plays early last week, and then Elijah Pritchett got ejected for targeting. But he's a tackle for Nebraska and their tackles have been terrible all year. Rocco Spindler, their center, broke his finger and he should be back this week, but he got in baby Mahomes mode and the result was he just thought he could escape every pass rusher in the universe. And Anthony Smith in Minnesota ate him alive. And I'm not sure if they're going to shake him out of baby Mahomes mode. And if he doesn't get shaken out of baby Mahomes mode. Northwestern shut out Purdue last week. I think Northwestern is going to be all over him if they're not careful.
Bill Landis
Yeah, I, I, there's two things. Nebraska's offensive line is terrible, and Dylan Raiola is awful against pressure. Yes, some of it is like, he's under it a lot. But like, I, I was surprised to hear you say what Matt Rule said about Raiola avoiding saxes. I thought he caused like four of them. Yeah. So it kind of, it kind of bounces out. His pressure to sacrate this year is over 35. It's double what it was last year. You should be getting better in that statistic as you get into your college career. Not infinitely.
Doug Maurice
Wow.
Bill Landis
The way that Dylan Raiola is and, and Northwestern's got a good front. Like, I don't know you. I think they'll need more than that, I guess, to win the game. But it's part of the reason, too. Like, I thought Nebraska was going to go to Maryland and struggles because, like, Maryland's got a pretty good defensive line and like, and Nebraska's offensive line is just really bad. Like, they put some money into it in the off season. It hasn't worked. They paid for the wrong guys and then they have a quarterback who's compounding all of their issues up front by, like you said, the ball way too long. It is, if you just want to think about, like, styles and matchups and deficiencies and where teams are good. Like, it actually lines up pretty nicely here. I think for Northwestern to keep this close, if not win, because of the struggles that Nebraska has in pass protection.
Doug Maurice
And if you haven't been paying attention, Northwestern's on a four game winning streak. They held UCLA to 14. They held Louisiana Monroe to seven. They held Penn State to 21. And they shut out Purdue last week. And Purdue has scored on some people this year. Purdue scored on usc, Notre Dame. I was actually at that game. Did he get hurt?
Bill Landis
Ryan Brown got hurt and the kid from Arkansas came in. Malachi.
Doug Maurice
Oh yeah, but he. But Ryan Brown was in a decent chunk of the game. Like they didn't shut out Purdue because Ryan Brown was hurt the whole game.
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Doug Maurice
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Doug Maurice
Platform, trusted by over 200 million people. Start your GoFundMe today at gofundme.com that's gofundme.com gofundme.com and like, we have to remember with Northwestern like this UCLA turnaround, they fired desean Foster and then the next, their first game they lost to Northwestern and then they went on the winning streak. So like I, like, I don't know, is that a good win for Northwestern? Now when Northwestern beat UCLA and UCLA almost came back at the end and won, nobody was like, what a great for win for Northwestern. But Northwestern's now 5 and 2. And the thing is, in their two losses, week one to Tulane and week three to Oregon, Preston Stone, their quarterback, no touchdowns, six interceptions, 148 passing yards per game, 53% completion percentage in their five wins, 10 touchdowns, one interception, 183 passing yards per game, 62% completions. So when they lie, he threw four picks against Tulane and they just like, they had no chance. He was giving the ball away and now he stopped doing that. And Preston Stone is like an established good quarterback. He was a starter at SMU two years ago. Griffin Wilde is like a real guy at receiver. They have two running backs they like even though they lost their number one running back, Cam Porter for the season to an injury early like, like Northwestern's a real team and if Nebraska doesn't pull its head out, they have a chance to lose this. Nebraska at home is a seven and a half point favorite and also like it just coalesced and I just saw a tiny little bit of it from like the, the angry edge of the, of the Nebraska media. Right? Matt Rules doing a podcast. Matt Rules talked about for the Penn State job. And that's cool and fine, but man, the first time you lose when you're doing stuff like that, people are going to be like, how about you stop your podcast and stop worrying about another job and do your job here. And there's a taste of that in Lincoln right now. So if they don't handle that, I mean, I will say if they lose at home to Northwestern, I think it has a chance to get really ugly in Lincoln really fast. But they have to handle that right now to make sure that doesn't happen. And I'm not sure that they can.
Bill Landis
I'm not sure that they can either. And I think it's a pretty big spot for Northwestern, too, just in terms of bowl eligibility. Yeah. They play. They play at usc, Michigan. I think they can. They can beat Minnesota. Is that game at Wrigley?
Doug Maurice
Yes.
Bill Landis
Minnesota game. Yeah. So they play Michigan, Minnesota back to back. And Wrigley. I think they could beat Minnesota. But if you look at what. And they finish at Illinois, like, if you look at what they have left, this game and the Minnesota game are probably the two that feel most winnable for them. And I think David Braun's done a nice job. Right. We talked about coming into the year, how many games does he have to win to be the coach that leads Northwestern into this new era with their new stadium next year? I think he's done that with getting the 5 and 2.
Doug Maurice
And the Penn State win is a signature win for Northwestern, even though Penn State's not very good. Right.
Bill Landis
But they still want to get to a bowl game. So they have to probably either win this one or win the Minnesota game. Game. And I think they can win this one. I actually don't. My feel on this game was like, I really don't have any idea who's going to win, but I feel pretty strongly that Northwestern is going to cover.
Doug Maurice
I agree. That's exactly my. My opinion. Seven and a half is too much.
Bill Landis
Yeah.
Doug Maurice
In a game like this. And you're on alert. Obviously, the ceiling. Right. The ceiling of Nebraska. If Dylan Raiola plays his best game, if they get the offensive line figured out. The ceiling.
Bill Landis
Good defense.
Doug Maurice
They do. But there's like a co. There's a competence. Northwestern was scattered early. Like Northwestern went down and lost to land in New Orleans. It was like Northwestern might go 2 and 10. I don't know what this is. If Preston Stone's going to turn the ball over, is he going to get benched? Right. And that's not where they. And then they're. Then their running back, their best skill guy got hurt and they still only have one receiver. But, like, they know who they are and they're coming off a really good defensive performance. I definitely think Northwestern could win, but I'm. I couldn't get all the way there. So I have Nebraska 20 to 16. But I agree Northwestern plus seven and a half is great.
Bill Landis
I have Nebraska 20 to 14.
Doug Maurice
You do. Okay. Okay. This is worth keeping an eye on because, you know, Northwestern's interesting. Nebraska remains a signature program in the Big Ten. They're a pivot program in the Big Ten. Like, this is one of Those. Okay. Like, even before the season, I think a lot of people thought, okay, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, they're going to make the playoff. Then, like, who's the leader of the pack for the fourth playoff team for the Big Ten? Nebraska was pretty high on that list. And like, here they are. They're still. It's still possible for them, but they have to get their stuff together. And like, you're, you know.
Bill Landis
Yes.
Doug Maurice
No, go ahead.
Bill Landis
So I think a lot of people just sort of assume that Matt Rule is going to be Penn State's next head coach. Like, Penn State can't hire a guy who, like, also loses to Northwestern, right? Like, is it. Is that at stake here at all for Matt Rule? It's like, you better start winning or your dream job might slip through your finger.
Doug Maurice
No, I. I think that's definitely true. I mean, the Difference between hiring 7 winner 8 men 8 win Matt Rule vs hiring 10 win Matt Rule because he already has the same thing of James Franklin. I'm not winning big games, right? But, like, so I don't know, you know, is he going to be able to really shake that? He doesn't have Ohio State left on the schedule or anything like that. So the best he can do is be. Is be competent, right. And be solid. So I don't know. Again, like, that's not where I would go. It's too obvious. And I don't think he. Yeah, you're right. We're talking. We've had two straight games there where we've talked about coaches. The teams want to try to still get somewhere. But also there's. I don't think David Braun's a contender for the Penn State job, but who knows? But, like, we've talked about two games, three coaches so far that, like, they're playing for their next job as well. So that's also on the table here for Matt Rule. All right, so we both have Nebraska, but we have Northwestern covering next is another huge one. Illinois at Washington. This is 330. This line opened at Washington - four and a half. It's now Washington - three and a half. One thing that I think is really important here, Bill, is it feels like Washington thinks they might get two starting offensive lineman back. Carver Willis, their left tackle, has been out since getting hurt against Ohio State, and John Mills, their left guard, has been out for two games. Jed Fish said this week that both of them are trending well. So he didn't say they're back. You know, wasn't a designation, but it's kind of the kind of thing a coach says early in the week. And I think you talked about it last week, I think when, when Michigan beat Washington in the big house and Washington had a hard time blocking Michigan and like part of that is because Michigan showed once again that its defense is still legit. But also their backup left tackle got hurt in that game. And so they're playing their third string left tackle for parts of that game. And that third string left tackle gave up three pressures and 15 pass blocking snaps. If they can get the left side of their offensive line back, I think that is obviously huge for them. It could get their offense, I think back in stride. But also it's a huge bounce back game for Devon Williams Jr. Who threw three picks in the second half last week against Michigan.
Bill Landis
Yeah. And it's Illinois coming off of a break. They didn't play last week after they lost to Ohio State. So I, that the biggest thing in the matchup for me is like the Washington O line against, against Illinois's front because I Illinois has a good defensive line. I would say they've maybe not been quite as like overwhelming as maybe I thought they could be coming into the year. But like obviously Gabe Akis is very good. So like that individual like star pass rusher against whatever it is, even like an injured offensive line starter or, or you know, God forbid for Washington, a third stringer like that, that's not great. Like that's the kind of thing that can flip a game for you. So if Washington's getting healthier up front, that's good. It's a, it's a. We talked about this before, right? It's. They had so many offensive line issues last year. I think they did a nice job of like taking a step forward. I still don't think it's a great offensive line, but it's, it's at least Big Ten average probably if not like slightly better than that when they're healthy.
Doug Maurice
So I thought it would be competent and I think it's been fairly competent when healthy.
Bill Landis
When healthy. Yeah. But I don't even know like getting guys back from injury to me is still not like all the way healthy. It's better than the alternative of not having them obviously, but I wonder if there could be any rust there or like Carver Willis plays, but is he like the best version of Carver Willis kind of thing? I, I good for Washington that they're getting guys back. I would still think that Illinois might have the advantage with its defensive front in that matchup.
Doug Maurice
So Demon Williams Jr. Threw three picks the first one he said he predetermined his read pre snap and was just going to throw a slant and a linebacker jump the route underneath. And that's like a first year starting quarterback, like admitting, like I just, I decided it in my head and that was a mistake. The second one, he and the tight end weren't on the same page. In his, in his zone, the tight end continued the route. Demond Williams Jr. Thought he would settle in. Like, who read it wrong? They didn't say this week, but it's not only on him. And the third one was a downfield shot that he actually made a really nice throw on, kind of in desperation mode. And Denzel Boston dropped it and fell into Michigan guy's hands. So the bottom line is in a game that was tied, Demond Williams Jr. Threw three picks in the second half at Michigan. That's not the whole story, but that's what he's trying to bounce back from. And so that's kind of where I am. I am on this game. If it lingers for him, I don't think Washington's going to win if he is. I made mistakes. I'm going to show you how good I am. I was back working harder than ever this week. Like his, his offensive coordinator was even talking this week like, yeah, like that's, that's tough to recover from. Like they know this, this is a test for Jed Fish and, and everybody in that building to help them on Williams play his best after the worst game of his, of his career so far. So I'm gonna bet that he does bounce back. But I'm also gonna wimp out a little bit because I think it's enough of a toss up the SP plus ratings from ESPN. Washington's 23, Illinois's 27. Like it's pretty close a three and a half point line. I'm gonna take Illinois with the points, but I'll say Washington's gonna win 27, 24.
Bill Landis
Okay. I do think there could be opera like a bounce back spot here. I don't, I don't think Illinois's past defense is great and like they've been banged up under secondary. We know that but if you look at some of the. Duke threw it on them and I mean obviously Indiana did, but even like USC and Purdue did, Ohio State did not. But Ohio State was also playing on short fields that most of that game at home. I think there's a chance for the Mon. Williams and the passing attack to like kind of get going against Illinois, but Illinois is like banging the playoff drum pretty hard. I think like Repulum is already out in front of that. They've had an extra week to prepare for this. I think they do some interesting stuff defensively, some stuff that can kind of confuse a young quarterback too. So I'm going to pick Illinois on the road. 28:28 24.
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Some things in life are just made for each other. Peanut butter and jelly, Macaroni and cheese Modelo and College Football College football season is Modelo season and the season has officially kicked off. The Modelo recruiter is back in action looking to reward full time fans who give their all for their team and their school week in and week out. If you're listening this this, you've been recruited. So lace them up and get out there. And don't forget to make time for a well deserved ice cold reward because college football wouldn't be the same without you. So grab yourself a Modelo and enjoy the official beer. Sponsor of the College Football Playoff Modelo.
Doug Maurice
Foreign we're going to talk about this a lot next week with the defensive coordinator now coordinating on the other side, Jim Knowles for Penn State against Ohio State. Same thing here. Ryan Walters now the Washington Defensive coordinator made his bones as the Illinois defensive coordinator, got the Purdue head coaching job off of it. So this is, you know, Ryan Walters knows how Illinois wants to run offense. Illinois knows how Ryan Walters wants to run defense. This is how, like, I like both these teams. I think both these teams are good. This is the bit, like this is the most play any est of the Big Ten games, right? That, that I think, you know, Washington's got Oregon left, Illinois has an easier schedule. But like the winner of this definitely can win out. Like, the winner of this definitely has a chance to go 10 and 2. So this is the, the wit. Now you've been circumspect about the ability of Illinois to make the playoff at 10 and 2 with a 50 point loss to Indiana, which I think is correct. But I still think the winner of this probably emerges as the most likely fourth Big Ten playoff team if they get one.
Bill Landis
Yeah. Unless Michigan beats Ohio State. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Doug Maurice
So, okay, so we're actually both, we're on the same side of the bet. Illinois with the points, but we're split. I think Washington's going to win. You think Illinois is going to win. One thing I want to remind the folks of, I'm wearing my Roback today. So this is my Roback black hoodie. High quality. It's one of those that it's like warm enough for, for the chilly weather. But then when you're inside, you're not sweating to death because it's not like super heavy, but it's, it's really nice. It fits really nice. It hangs nice. And this is just a black one. Right. So if you want to go to roback.com r h o b a c k dot com r h o b a c K dot com you can find sort of like the kind of stuff like this in the grays and the blacks and the whites and those kind of neutral colors. But they also have the game day collection. So you could get something like this, this hoodie, nice little drawstrings, right? Look like this.
Bill Landis
Nope, that's not the look for you.
Doug Maurice
That was, that was not. That was in between sad and scary in a, in a way that was not advantageous for me. Other direction. So maybe you can put your hood up. I can't. But if you go to roback.com they like stuff like this, like with an Ohio State stripe on it, like that kind of thing. Or a little buckeye leaf right here, like that kind of thing. That subtle look. 20% off your first order. If you put in bad 20B a D20. You'll get 20% off your first order at Roback. And that's the thing. Like it. How it hangs on you, right? How stuff hangs. Hang and cling. Hang and cling. It's why I, I sometimes don't love ordering stuff online, but I'm being your mannequin. So like, you gotta know, you gotta get a hang and cling idea. Because sometimes, like, I don't know. So this is a good hanging cling, right? Because it's not too clingy and it hangs nice because you get something and then it's like, oh, dang it. Too clingy, you're dead. Yeah.
Bill Landis
Gotta send it back. Or throw it in a pile. And never look at it again.
Doug Maurice
And never look at it again. Be like, I'll send that back in four years, see if they'll take it. The hanging cling quotient for Roebuck is, is really good. All right, last Big Ten matchup, Minnesota at Iowa. 3:30 at Iowa. I was favored at home by 8 1/2 from a betting standpoint. I'll just say this. The last five games in Iowa City in this rivalry, the last one was the 12:10 Minnesota win where Cooper DeJean didn't mean to call for a fair catch, but half put his hand up because he was pointing and they. He ran a punt back for a touchdown. That would have won the game for Iowa. But they called it a fair catch and everybody in Iowa went nuts. So that's a Minnesota win. And the previous four games to that were Iowa wins by less than a touchdown. So Minnesota has covered 8 1/2 in Iowa five straight games. I think this is a big number for a rivalry when I think Minnesota is pretty good. I've also seen there was something, you know, just like looking at efficiency metrics and stuff. This week, Minnesota, excuse me. Iowa's defense is still like Iowa's defense. They're pretty decent, right? Do you think I was. Defense is pretty solid.
Bill Landis
Yes, Better. Better than I thought they were going to be this year. I thought there could have been like a pretty significant drop off there and it's not been too bad.
Doug Maurice
And so there's the idea of like Iowa with a competent quarterback. Watch out, right? Like, you don't want to face that. Iowa. So Iowa is 5 and 2. And then the question is like, where is Mark Gronowski? Is Mark Gronowski a good quarterback? Because they beat Penn State last year. Because Mark Gronowski last year, last week, because Mark Gronowski ran for 130 yards. One of those was a 67 yard run in the second half. That was huge where he just ran up the middle and two Penn State safeties conk their heads together and it should have been a nine yard run and instead it was a 67 yard run down to the five yard line and it really was not. Mark Brownowski didn't do anything wrong but it wasn't like Mark Gronowski stiff armed two guys hurdled a third and dropped the spin move. It was like terrible tackling by Penn State and then otherwise Mark Gronowski last week was 10 of 16 for 68 yards and he still has not had like a 200 yard passing game at.
Bill Landis
Iowa and so three touchdowns, four inter.
Doug Maurice
So it's just like, like I'm not taking anything away from Iowa but we are treading very lightly on the watch out for Iowa when they have a competent quarterback. I, I feel like some teams have been letting Iowa get away with some stuff and I'm not sure Minnesota is going to allow that to happen. And Minnesota coming off a three score win against Nebraska is an eight and a half point underdog at Iowa. I, I honestly am a little confused by this line and how to view it because overall in neutral field I think Minnesota is a better team.
Bill Landis
Yeah, I agree. I think so too. Yeah, I don't know. Eight and a half's a lot. That's the first thing I clocked when this game came up. Last year's game was a little more lopsided. To your point. When they play Iowa City, it's close. The other thing about Iowa, like I was, you know, I'm not trying to take too much away from Iowa, but the combined records of the four FBS teams that they've beaten is 8 and 20. Like they've, they've not, I think like Penn State still has talent but a bad record. But like the other wins are UMass, Rutgers in Wisconsin. I don't know, I just like it is such a one note offense and Minnesota's run defense this year has been very good. I think Minnesota on the right day can get its passing game going too with Drake Lindy like he's still, you still watch him, he still makes throws. Like you can definitely see it. I just like holistically they like they.
Doug Maurice
Don'T, I don't think they have everything.
Bill Landis
They need to be like a dynamic passing offense yet but, but I, I think they will as long as he's their quarterback into the future. So yeah, I just kind of think Minnesota is better. I I think it's kind of as simple as that. I'm not saying like the wrong team is favored because it's Iowa at home, but that just feels like too big of a number for me.
Doug Maurice
So. Yeah, and I, I thought Minnesota looked good in that win over Nebraska. Again they got the nine sacks on Dilleriola, but Darius Taylor had a really nice game. Couple receivers played well. Anthony Smith on the defensive line is still a guy to get after it. And like you said with Drake, Lindsay, you can, you can see it coming along. I actually think again, I just, it's, it's hard. This is what happens like when there's depth in the conference and, and when there's death in a conference. Like it's one of those things. Well, like was Iowa kind of lucky last week and Minnesota was dominant? It's like, well that doesn't mean that Minnesota is going to be dominant this week and Iowa is going to be lucky. Like, like this. It could flip. But I think right now Minnesota is better. And I kind of think if you're looking for somebody in the Big Ten, I also think maybe, maybe you're looking at Minnesota and their two losses are a goofy loss to Cal, which you don't excuse, but I don't think it's a total indication of the team they are. Then they got blown out by Ohio State, but lots of people are going to get blown out by Ohio State. But 5 and 2, Minnesota at Iowa home Michigan State and then like a game changing game at, at Oregon off a buy, you know, like I just think I bet Minnesota over eight wins going into the year and I just think they're looking like a nine or ten win team to me. And if Minnesota wins this game and then somehow could go to Eugene, I mean like if we get to that point, it's like we're talking about Minnesota is a two loss team going to Oregon. If they win the game, they're in the thick of the playoff race. Holy moly. That's a huge ask, but I kind of think Minnesota is capable of it. Like, I just think they have good pieces and PJ Flex been here before and I kind of believe in Minnesota, but that maybe that just means Kirk Farrance is going to put him in a full nelson and beat him 9 to 6.
Bill Landis
Yeah, he could. And there's also, there's a chance Iowa might have the best offensive line in the country.
Doug Maurice
You love Iowa's offensive line. They deserve flowers.
Bill Landis
I'm not the only one. They might win the Joe Moore Award. They're the best. Like just by. Again, pff. Is whatever you want it to be, but best run blocking team in the country. And like the fifth best pass blocking team in the country. Sorry, eighth best pass blocking team in the country. They could control the game. The Iowa offensive line could control the game. And, and yes, honestly, like, be. Be the. The part of Iowa that wins the game for them. So like, I'm not. I'm not trying to be entirely dismissive of Iowa. They. They. It's Iowa. They play good defense. They have a very good offensive line. They can run the ball. It's just that their offense doesn't look like what we expected it to be because Mark Kranowski, for whatever reason, like, just cannot. They still can't throw the ball, but they can run to a win. I think they could. I just don't know that they're going to. I'm picking Minnesota.
Doug Maurice
I'm picking Minnesota too. What's your score?
Bill Landis
20 to 13. Okay.
Doug Maurice
I'm 2320.
Bill Landis
Low total to 39 and a half this game. That's surprising. And also we did mention that they're playing for a pig. Oh, yeah.
Doug Maurice
Playing for a pig. That matters. And this is one of these things again, it's like Kirk Signetti talked about it a ton. Iowa almost beat Indiana. It's like all this other stuff is like, who is Iowa beating? It's like, well, probably their best win is a five point loss to Indiana.
Bill Landis
Correct.
Doug Maurice
That's that. We came down to the final two minutes, so we know how difficult it is to play there. And there are components of Iowa football that are as good as anybody, you'll find. And so this is just one of those again, you know, does anybody nationally think that Minnesota winning on the road at Iowa is a big deal? Like they probably should. And does anybody nationally think that Iowa moving to 6 and 2 by beating a Minnesota team that just knocked off a ranked Nebraska team, Is that a good win? I think they should think that, like, the winner of this is a good win, but I don't know how people will see it. This is a good game. I'd watch this. I'm gonna watch this game. 3:30. Okay. Michigan. Michigan State. Yeah, it probably should.
Bill Landis
Yeah.
Doug Maurice
Illinois, Illinois, Washington or Minnesota? Iowa should probably be the night game. But they're both. They're opposite each other at three 30s. This is split, split screen. Big Ten afternoon. All right, we're gonna do two SEC games quickly. Mid versus mid. Well, mid versus mid. And then like terrible versus probably the best team. But the mid versus mid game is Missouri at Vanderbilt. This is also at 3:30. Vanderbilt is favored at home by two and a half. Vanderbilt blew out Charleston Southern, Utah State, Georgia State, Mizzou blew out UMass, Central Arkansas and Louisiana. But again, like, you start going through this stuff, I'm not exactly sure who I'm supposed to be impressed by. I guess I'm supposed to be impressed because Vanderbilt beat LSU last week, but.
Bill Landis
Come on, man, it's Vanderbilt. Give him some credit.
Doug Maurice
But they're also the sec. But it's like, I like, I like. It's great for them. It just depends like, what we're talking about. Like, yay Vanderbilt. Yay Vanderbilt fans. Awesome. Throw every goalpost in every river. Awesome. This is what they've been waiting for. Wear your Commodore gear with pride. Roback I'm sure has Vanderbilt stuff too. Go buy Roback stuff for Vanderbilt. Like, love it. But like, don't shove Vanderbilt down my throat as a sign of SEC power. And this is a top 10 team. And, and this is proof of how great the SEC is because, like, it's just. But so both these teams, again, this is. There's a bunch of like a kind of Ole Miss, Oklahoma, we're not picking, but like Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Missouri. I think nationally people are looking as like, oh, these are like playoff playing games. And I'm just saying Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois, Washington are the same thing. So that's all. So just like don't shove Vanderbilt down my throat when it feels like you're not giving me Minnesota any respect. Because, like, if Minnesota and Vanderbilt played on a neutral field, like I'd take Minnesota. That's not a shot at Vanderbilt. But I get it. And their, their offense is great. I get it. Their offense statistically is awesome. Right. Diego Pavi is a very good player. I just think they are, while being a wonderful. They are an overrated underdog at this point, which is like a weird thing to be. And I'm not trying to be mean. I just, I just, I just don't want to live in the Vanderbilt. Missouri is like the game of the week world. So I don't know. Do you think it's the game of the week? Maybe I'm wrong. Is it the game?
Bill Landis
I think it's. I think it's a fun game. Yeah. Remove all of the. Whatever. Basically all the discussion about the game and it stakes in the SEC and whatever. Like just like two teams. I think it's a fun game. Yeah. By the way, CFB graphs dot com. Minnesota versus Vanderbilt on the neutral Field.
Doug Maurice
Vanity by nine not looking at that site anymore. Sorry Stats of war. I'm out.
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Some things in life are just made for each other. Peanut butter and jelly Macaroni and cheese Modelo and College Football College football season is Modelo season and the season has officially kicked off. The Modelo recruiter is back in action looking to reward full time fans who give their all for their team and their school week in and week out. If you're listening to this, you've been recruited. So lace em up and get out there and don't forget to make time for a well deserved ice ice cold reward because college football wouldn't be the same without you. So grab yourself a Modelo and enjoy the official beer. Sponsor of the College Football Playoff Modelo.
Doug Maurice
I just like I I like Mizzou a little better on both sides of the ball. I thought Mizzou made some critical mistakes against Alabama, but otherwise should have, probably should have won that game. Like if you want to say okay so Missouri at home they might be at Missouri might be a little bit like Washington like at home. They're a monster on the road. Are they the same kind of team? So I understand that but I, I just, I Like Mizzou a little better. I'm gonna take Mizzou. 34, 28. Even though Vandy is the favorite, not.
Bill Landis
Many teams have run the ball super successfully against Vanderbilt. I also don't think they played many great rushing offenses. Missouri has one. Ahmad Hardy is really good. But if you, if Vanderbilt, I will say, like in watching the Vanderbilt LSU game, it was pretty apparent to me that like that Vanderbilt has really beefed up its roster. Like they're especially in the line of scrimmage. Like there are offensive and defensive linemen on that team that are just like, yeah, those look like guys who would be on really good teams. So I, I think they'll be up for this. And, and I'd be worried about a hangover because the LSU win was such, such a huge win for that program. But they're back at home, which I think might help them avoid that some. So I'm gonna pick Vanderbilt to win and cover. I have, I have Vandy. 3127.
Doug Maurice
Okay, and again, Vanderbilt, if you win, go crazy, man. Go crazy. Congratulations. I'm not watching. Texas A and M at LSU is our last one. This is a primetime game opposite Michigan State. Michigan 7:30. LSU is a home dog, but only getting two and a half against the only remaining undefeated team in the SEC. Bam is also undefeated in conference, but they had the non conference loss. Texas A&M, one of six remaining unbeatens in FCS. I think Texas A and M is good. I think LSU is not. But I bet you there's a lot of people out there picking LSU this week.
Bill Landis
Probably I, I saw this line and I thought to myself, boy, like, it must be rare for LSU to be a home dog. They were a home dog twice last year against Alabama, an Ole Miss. What I could find, like going back, like, they've, they've been a home dog. Like in their last 32 instances of being a home underdog, they're 17 and 15 outright and 18 and 13 against the spread.
Doug Maurice
Okay.
Bill Landis
I looked it up. I looked it up just because I thought that LSU being a home underdog might be more rare than it has been. Yeah, but, but it's, but actually it's not because Brian Kelly stinks. LSU's offense is terrible, averaging 20 points a game against Power 4 competition. They're, they're awful. Garrett Nussmeier, to use one of your words, is mid. It's a tough place to play and it's a, I think a fairly good LSU defense. But A M has been tested. They've Won some tight games. They've won on the road at Notre Dame. I think it's not going to be the prettiest game in the world, but I think A M is going to win. I have 24, 17.
Doug Maurice
Yeah, I have a M also 24, 20. They've been playing with fire, right? Like, you know, somebody's gonna get him at this at some point, the way they've been doing it. Obviously, the huge win over Notre Dame, 41 to 40, Auburn 16 to 10, Arkansas 45, 42 last week. I don't know that Texas A M is going to get through undefeated, but, like, is it going to happen here? And this, like, LSU is staring down 7 and 5. And so I made. I made a preseason bet with Connor o' Gara at Saturday down south where I said they'd start three and three and he said they'd win the national title. And so it was like, if neither of us are right, then nobody wins the bet. So I wasn't right. But guess what? Guess what? He's not right either. So. And honestly, they're. Look, they're closer. Like, I thought Clemson was going to be good. So they beat Clemson and they've had some other close games, but they're staring down the barrel of seven and five because they are five and two right now. They're playing Texas A and M. They're at Bama after a buy, and then they finish at Oklahoma. So, like, Brian Kelly Lee Corso picked LSU to win the national title. Like, oh, this is like another sort of, like, if you didn't. If you weren't going, like, with the Penn State, Texas route, like, LSU was kind of like, not a. Not a crazy pick, but not chalk pick. And they're. They're not close to that. And if they go seven and five, is Brian Kelly out?
Bill Landis
I don't know what the buyout is, but I don't know that it matters at lsu. Yeah, I would think. I would think probably. So he might choose to leave.
Doug Maurice
That could be interesting if, like, if he. If he chose to go to one of the other open jobs. Right. That. And just like, I got. I got a spot for Brian Kelly, Son of the North.
Bill Landis
Wisconsin. Wisconsin, yeah.
Doug Maurice
So you think they'd take that up there?
Bill Landis
No, I wouldn't want it. I think. I don't. We were having a conversation, like, back and forth, I think, last week about Brian Kelly, and people are saying, like, Brian Kelly's always been an average coach. I was like, well, he has won two national championships and he's. And he played for a national championship, Notre Dame. Like, he's won a lot everywhere he's been, except for lsu. But I do think it's possible that, like, the sport has passed him by. Like, like, I don't. You may not have the temperament for it anymore. So I don't know that I'd be super excited to be a program in desperate need of a bounce back that hires Brian Kelly.
Doug Maurice
Yeah, he. He would fall and he would be in the catch. A falling coach basket of like, hey, remember when that guy was good and when Brian Kelly was in his heyday, we never would have been able to get him, but now that he's kind of failed, we can get him. Isn't that great? It's like, it's because he's failed. Congratulations. So, yeah, maybe. Maybe would not. We would not advise that. Okay, those are our six picks for this week. Again, I am in need of a bounce back. Bill's still hanging in pretty strong. Not a gambling show, but we like talking about national college ball and northern college ball. We'd send you again to roback.com bad 20 will get you 20 off. Like, subscribe, tell a friend, and just know that we're grateful to you guys for being here. So we will have a bunch of stuff next week, obviously. Ohio State, Penn State previewing that. As always, Tuesday is our playoff bracket show. We are not very far away, first week in November from the actual first playoff rankings from the committee coming out. So we would invite you guys to join us for that. But for now, thanks for being here. He's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Lee Maurice and that was the Bill and Doug Show. Look, if you've got prescriptions, the Walmart app is your place to manage them. Transfer your scripts, refill them, and have them delivered straight to you. Migraines, managed allergies, alleviated dermatology, Derma delivered. Ding dong. Is that your pizza? Nope. Walmart pharmacy delivery with a refill. Switch to Walmart and manage your prescription. The Walmart you thought you knew is now new delivery. Not available for all prescriptions.
Bill Landis
Exclusions apply.
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Doug Maurice
These Doritos Golden Sriracha aren't that spicy. Sriracha sounds pretty spicy to me. Um, a little spicy, but also tangy and sweet. Maybe it's time to turn up the heat. Or turn it down. It's time for something that's not too spicy. Try Doritos Golden Sriracha. Spicy but not too spicy.
Episode: College Football Playoff Eliminator Games: Picks and Previews on Which Big Ten Teams Will Survive
Date: October 25, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises ("Doug Maurice") & Bill Landis
Podcast Network: Blue Wire
This episode is a rapid-fire, insightful, and lighthearted deep dive into the biggest college football playoff eliminator games of the week — with a particular spotlight on the Big Ten. Doug and Bill preview and make picks on six pivotal matchups, weighing coaching intrigue, playoff stakes, and roster developments — all while keeping the focus on teams often overshadowed by "Southern CFB bias." The key theme: with the expanded playoff and a tightly bunched Big Ten, nearly every game could decide a team's postseason fate — and every fanbase still has hope.
The duo also showcase their usual banter, poke fun at their own shaky pick records, and highlight how coaching drama and depth have supercharged the season's excitement.
Subplot: Memphis’ QB situation (will they unleash freshman AJ Hill?) and the coaching carousel motivate both sides.
Picks:
Theme: Toss-up game with high stakes for bowl eligibility and coach reputations.
Picks:
Focus: Washington’s OL health vs. Illinois’ defensive front is the “biggest thing in the matchup” (Bill, 26:53).
Picks:
Debate: Is Iowa’s “watch out, we finally have a quarterback!” deserved, or a mirage?
Picks:
Missouri at Vanderbilt
Texas A&M at LSU
On the Big Ten’s Playoff Picture:
“12 of the 18 teams in the Big Ten are still in the playoff race... Isn't that cool?” (Doug, 10:44)
On Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola:
“He got in baby Mahomes mode and the result was he just thought he could escape every pass rusher in the universe.” (Doug, 15:19)
Coaching Intrigue:
“Both these coaches are coaching to get people.” (Bill, 06:10)
Analytical Digs:
“Nebraska's offensive line is terrible, and Dylan Raiola is awful against pressure.” (Bill, 15:37)
“Brian Kelly stinks... Garrett Nussmeier... is mid.” (Bill, 51:53)
On Rivalry Contexts:
"They're playing for a pig. That matters." (Bill, 43:26, re: Minnesota-Iowa)
On the Value of ‘Overlooked’ Games:
“I'm not trying to be mean. I just, I just, I just don't want to live in the Vanderbilt–Missouri is like the game of the week world.” (Doug, 46:51)
This episode delivers:
In short: If you want to know which games really matter for the playoff chase, which under-the-radar Big Ten and Group of 5 teams might shake up the season, and what the expert fan’s perspective is on the national scene, this episode is essential listening.