Episode Overview

Title: College Football Playoff live reaction: Which upsets in next 3 weeks could shake up the rankings?
Air Date: November 12, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis
Podcast: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk (Blue Wire)

Main Theme:
Doug and Bill react live to the latest College Football Playoff rankings, break down potential upsets that could shake up the playoff picture, and discuss the implications for Ohio State, the SEC, and other contenders. They analyze playoff scenarios, root for (and against) certain teams, and consider how chaos could change the postseason bracket.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Live College Football Playoff Rankings Reveal

• Doug and Bill provide live reactions and commentary as each spot in the new CFP Top 25 is revealed, sharing both the official list and their instant takes.
• They clarify the system behind ESPN FPI playoff probabilities and discuss which teams have the best odds to make the 12-team field with three weeks left.
  • “So we're talking about seven teams there already, Landis, four from the SEC, three from the Big Ten that they think have a better than 80% chance to make the playoff with three weeks left in the regular season.” — Doug (03:37)

Notable Quotes:

• "Do we root for upsets or chalk in the SEC? ... This is really critical." — Doug (04:33)
• “There’s definitely going to be movement here.” — Doug (02:55)

2. SEC Chaos and Playoff Math

• Exploration of how the SEC could dominate the expanded playoff field, theoretically sending up to six teams.

  • "Greg Sankey is already positioning... opens up, like, the real possibility of the SEC getting six... I have acid reflux thinking about six SEC teams in the playoff." — Doug (04:33)
  • “If there were a way to avoid that... the idea of going through the first weekend with three SEC teams losing is great.” — Bill (05:21)

• The duo strategizes on when to root for 'chalk' (expected wins) and when to pull for upsets, based on which scenarios might hurt SEC dominance or help northern teams.

3. Ranking Reactions: Ins & Outs from the Top 25

• As teams like South Florida, Cincinnati, and Pitt appear in the Top 25, the hosts dissect which wins and losses shaped the new look of the rankings.

• Analysis of ACC, Big 12, and Group of Six races: Who benefited and who got hurt by the new order?

  • "[Pitt] has a huge role to play in the playoff picture." — Doug (07:52)

• Discussion of Notre Dame and Miami’s positions, the relevance of head-to-head matchups, and potential for non-champions to make the playoff based on FPI projections.

4. Big Ten & Familiar Matchups

• Consideration of how the Big Ten might land more playoff teams, including twists where teams like Michigan or USC could play spoilers.
• Unpacking likely playoff seeding, noting the quirks that might lead to frequent rematches (such as Ohio State vs. Oregon or Notre Dame).
  • “We could have six Ohio State-Oregon games in three or four years, which would be pretty crazy... But then you’re also talking about potentially four straight years of Ohio State-Notre Dame.” — Bill (25:00)
• The regional dynamic: Can the expanded playoff create a “North vs. South” tone?
  • “Could this playoff ever evolve into a truly regional exercise where the North... sends their representatives to face each other for a championship?” — Doug (27:27)

5. Scenarios & Upsets that Could Shake the Playoff

• Notre Dame vs. Pitt (32:22): Called the potential “chaos generator” since Pitt could knock out Notre Dame without directly impacting ACC standings—it’s a pivotal game for playoff spots.

  • "If PIT were to win that game and basically knock Notre Dame out of the playoff PIT could still lose twice and not be a factor in the playoff race... eliminate a team without putting another team in its place." — Bill (32:22)

• Ole Miss Potential Downfall: Bill and Doug fantasize about Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss losing out, or getting “stuffed in a trash can” in a playoff road game at a cold northern venue like Notre Dame or Oregon.

  • “I really want to see Ole Miss come North to freeze their nuts off. Okay. I'm not gonna say anything more…” — Doug (28:54)

• Rooting Centrifuge: They encourage fans to root by conference and rivalry, especially for northern teams to balance against SEC dominance.

  • “Isn't it possible that no matter how much you hate Notre Dame, you hate the SEC more? Root for the Fighting Irish.” — Doug (34:39)

• Potential for Big Ten to land a 5th team: If upsets break the right way, e.g., Michigan beating Ohio State or USC beating Oregon.

  • “Wouldn't that be great? That's how you get five Big Ten in.” — Doug (36:53)

6. Bracket Projections and Playoff Pairings

• Bill and Doug reveal their projected brackets based on live rankings and their own predictions for the season’s final weeks ([see 17:24–24:50]):
  • “The 5-12 would be Georgia hosting South Florida...” — Bill (17:26)
  • Frequent rematches (e.g., Ohio State vs. Oregon/Notre Dame) are possible with current rankings.
  • “That bracket is four SEC home games in the first round... I do like the idea of people having a chance to ruin a first round SEC party.” — Doug (22:03)

Notable/Memorable Quotes (with Timestamps)

• “Greg Sankey is already positioning... I have acid reflux thinking about six SEC teams in the playoff.” — Doug (04:33)
• “There’s definitely going to be movement here.” — Doug (02:55)
• “The idea of, like, going through the first weekend with three SEC teams losing is great.” — Bill (05:21)
• “Pitt's last three games… Pitt has a huge role to play in the playoff picture.” — Doug (07:52)
• “Could this playoff ever evolve into, like, a truly regional exercise... you could have something like that brewing.” — Doug (27:27)
• “I really want to see Ole Miss come North to freeze their nuts off.” — Doug (28:54)
• “Eliminate a team without putting another team in its place is the kind [of upset] I think really shakes things up.” — Bill (32:22)

Important Timestamps

• 00:00–02:48 — Live show begins, banter about wrestling on ESPN & streaming
• 02:48–05:47 — Playoff probability stats and how many big matchups remain
• 05:47–15:19 — Live Top 25 reveal with reactions (Bearcats, South Florida, Pitt, Tennessee, Iowa, Louisville, more)
• 17:24–24:50 — Bill and Doug’s projected 12-team brackets and discussion of first-round matchups
• 24:50–27:27 — Deep dive into potential playoff rivalries, North vs. South dynamics
• 29:31–32:43 — Speculation about Ole Miss, SEC road struggles, and possible first-round upsets
• 32:43–36:18 — The impact of Notre Dame-Pitt on the playoff picture & SEC/Northern fan rooting guide
• 36:49–47:46 — Playoff spot math, upsets that might create openings, and auto-bid vs. chaos discussion

Flow Summary & Tone

The episode is energetic, conversational, and unapologetically fan-driven, with a strong “root for chaos” stance. Doug in particular revels in the drama of southern powers failing in the north, and both hosts keep a tongue-in-cheek, irreverent tone while providing sharp insights into the playoff calculus. Despite their Ohio State focus, Bill and Doug show respect for Notre Dame, discuss the Big Ten’s postseason math, and gleefully speculate about how various upsets could upend the committee’s chalk.

A strong theme is both hosts’ desire for meaningful playoff drama—not just a scripted, auto-qualification system. Their rooting interests are clear: more Big Ten/Northern representation, less SEC, and maximum weirdness in the bracket.

Recap for Non-Listeners

If you missed the episode, here’s what you need to know:

• Doug and Bill react live to the College Football Playoff rankings, explain who moved and why, and then speculate about which upsets could shake up the field as the regular season closes.
• They consider playoff bracket scenarios: who gets in, who could get upset and miss, and why Pitt-Notre Dame and Ole Miss’s last two games are the biggest chaos drivers.
• The show's vibe is part big-picture analysis, part Ohio State fandom, with a healthy dose of anti-SEC sentiment and rooting for high-stakes playoff drama.
• Their language is colorful but good-humored, with lots of direct engagement with their live audience and characteristic midwestern banter.

Key Takeaways

• Ohio State remains #1, and the hosts feel good about their playoff position.
• The SEC could flood the playoff field unless fans root for key upsets; Notre Dame and Pitt are pivotal in creating chaos.
• There’s real potential for juicy first-round playoff rematches, regional rivalries, and for SEC teams to come north for possible humiliating losses.
• The 12-team playoff is going to be wild, unpredictable—and that’s exactly what Bill and Doug (and their listeners) want.