
It's College Football Playoff picks on The Bill and Doug Show, as Bill Landis and Doug Lesmerises reveal their season-end playoff projections as they do every Tuesday.
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Doug Lamoris
Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. It's Tuesday evening. That means it's time to talk playoff brackets and playoff picks. Doug Lamoris and Bill Landis. We do it every Tuesday, Bill. We run through what we actually think, our bracket, what we think it will be at the end of the year. Like if we were betting like a, like a, like a 50 cent piece on this and saying, like, who's closer to, to getting this right at the end of the year? That's what we try to do. And again, some shifts this week. And I just want you to know that I went through and I, I really, I made a pick that I think a lot of people will raise their eyebrows at. But I worked it out. And it's not only rationalization, it's actually ball talk.
Bill Landis
All right. Love it. Can't wait to see it.
Doug Lamoris
We would invite you to like to subscribe to tell a friend about the Bill and Doug Show. And I also want to just get something off my chest here, right off the top, Bill. So I've been getting just a little bit of pushback from some of the fine folks, some of the loyal people who have put me in this position in my career that I can just chill out a little bit on the SEC stuff. Like they, they think it's getting, they're getting enough of it. What do you think?
Bill Landis
Really? It seems like people, the people like when you get out the sword and get out the hat and push back on the sec.
Doug Lamoris
So here's the thing. So I did my, I did my rant show on Tuesday, I did that graphic about how I think who I think is mid and who's fired and everything. The top 25. It has, like 700, 000 impressions on social media. And I gotta do a show about that. Like, I saw three. That's just Twitter. That's Twitter. Making money off my G. Off my genius. Yeah. Right. So. But I'm just gonna try to keep it. I'm just gonna keep it. A little hoop. A little, like. Just a little, like, be a pro today. I'm gonna be a pro and talk.
Bill Landis
Be a pro. Okay.
Doug Lamoris
All right.
Bill Landis
We'll see.
Doug Lamoris
But I also. I also figured out a way for everybody in the SEC to finish with three losses, but as a pro, I did that.
Bill Landis
Now we're talking.
Doug Lamoris
We want to talk about Iowa because we were just drastically wrong about the Iowa Minnesota game.
Bill Landis
Maybe the most wrong we've been about anything this year. I think you and I both said Minnesota is a better team. What are we doing here? What's up with this spread?
Doug Lamoris
Eight and a half. Why is it eight lines should have been Iowa minus 30? We do want to talk about Iowa. I do want to talk about. Do you think Ole Miss is basically in the playoff at this point?
Bill Landis
Yeah, because they kind of have to lose twice to not be it. I don't know if that's going to happen.
Doug Lamoris
Yeah, I think they're eminently capable of that because, like, they had a bunch of close calls this year and they had a screwy game last year, but their schedule's pretty easy and they just beat Lane Kiffin, just got his first ranked win on the road as a coach in the sec. So, like, that's. That's meaningful and, like, I couldn't ignore that anymore. So I finally, like, I have Ole Miss, I think, in my playoff for the. Well, I guess I had it in a couple weeks ago, but I did not have them in last week and I have them in now kind of reluctantly, but, like, we're getting to that point of the season. Right. Whereas we know a week from now, on this Tuesday, there will actually be an actual show from the College Football Playoff committee. The actual first rankings will come out. You and I will come on and give our thoughts about the playoff and then react to that. But, like, we're getting to that point where there's a couple teams who are. Can really think, like, they're in really good shape at the moment.
Bill Landis
Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. Clearly the ones, like, at the top, certainly, but even a team like Ole Miss right Like, because my thing on Ole Miss was, well, they're not going to win both their games against Georgia and Oklahoma or I thought they would lose both those games. Excuse me. And it's like they also have, like, an egg bowl loss in them. They do now. It's like, even if they have an egg ball last on them, it might not matter. So, yeah, yeah, it's starting to take shape a little bit, but there's still a pretty decent amount of unknown. I think as we go into November.
Doug Lamoris
Something'S going to happen. We always just like. And I've been doing this for 20 years and I still catch myself. It's like, well, you know, if everything goes away, it's like, no, if you're starting a sentence in late October regarding college football that begins with, well, if everything goes the way you think, just end your sentence, because that's already. You're wrong. It's not going to go the way you think. There are going to be upsets that are going to affect this playoff bracket. But preseason Bill, I thought there was a chance there's gonna be a bloodbath at 9 and 3 for a couple playoff spots. I actually think we're inching closer to. Nobody at 9 and 3 gets in.
Bill Landis
Yes. I started to come around to that like a week or two ago. Okay. Kind of gaming out some records that I just. I don't. I think maybe there could be an opportunity for a couple of the sec teams at 9 and 3 to get in perhaps. But no, it feels more and more like we're looking at a bunch of 11 and ones, 10 and twos, if not some 12 O's.
Doug Lamoris
Okay. So let's, let's. Before we. Before we don't have to rush into our. Our picks. Here we are. We did complete the circle of death last week in the Big Ten, which was Illinois beating usc, USC beating Michigan, Michigan beating Washington, and then finishing it last weekend was Washington beating Illinois. So those four teams all beat each other, but. And they all want it home. Right. So it's like not a. Not a shock there, but like that. That's a little bit. You've kind of been on that at times this year that that kind of thing could maybe wind up not Green being great for the Big Ten. I thought that was a really impressive win by Washington. And I continue to like Washington and I continue to believe in Washington. But do you think that reality of four teams that I think make up a really good second tier in the Big Ten, all doing that to each other could in the end Be not the best.
Bill Landis
Yeah. You want to see, I think for the Big Ten's purposes anyway, you want to see one of those teams kind of emerge from that for group and it didn't really happen. It's not, it's not dissimilar though. It's not entirely the same thing of like there's this, there's this round robin of Indiana, Oregon and Iowa. Right. And Indiana obviously won both of its games there. So like they, they kind of vaulted themselves ahead of that.
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Right.
Bill Landis
And, and I guess we'll see what happens between Oregon and. I want a couple weeks to talk about that. But yeah, that, that didn't happen with that, that group of teams and doesn't mean they're not good. It means they're not discussed properly and it also means they might not make the playoff, which is like kind of a bummer for the Big Ten.
Doug Lamoris
So let's talk about Iowa. Both Iowa and Oregon are off this week, as is Washington. And then in two weeks Oregon is at Iowa and that's going to be a banger. And I'll be like I. Big, Big Noon should probably be there. Although I guess can you. Well, you could. That's like it's be a great game. Like they're, you know, Oregon is 7 and 1 and Iowa is 6 and 2 and they're both off this week. They're not going to lose like that. That has, that's a gigantic showdown for playoff implications. We do not have to define great games by whether Urban Meyer and, and, and, and, and Mark Ingram show up to do a pregame show there. It's a great game no matter what. Oh, Brady Quinn's here now it's big. That's not how this works. It's already.
Bill Landis
Oh, Indiana. Penn State's also that day. I wonder if Big Noon might still go to that.
Doug Lamoris
The hard thing is that Penn State stinks. So I don't know. But yes, you might be right.
Bill Landis
Oh, you know, also byu. Oh, wait, maybe has it already been byu? Texas Tech is that weekend and it's at noon. They might be going there.
Doug Lamoris
Okay.
Bill Landis
But they are, I actually think is good for us because I said to you before we started recording that's the day that Ohio State plays Purdue at 1:00 clock in the afternoon. Oregon and Iowa is at night so we can watch it.
Doug Lamoris
Oh, that would be great. That would be really fun. That'd be a great, a great one for NBC also. But Big Noon is I think going to Cincinnati, Utah this week. So I don't know if they do. I mean the back if the Big 12 deserves it, there's a bunch of bangers in the Big 12 coming down the pipe too. So I'm really, I'm trying to figure out what to think about BYU and Cincinnati who I think are just both really good. But I just, I am having a hard time like getting all the way there on some stuff. So like BYU and Cincinnati deserve our attention. But Iowa has quite a thing here coming up. Iowa is off. Go ahead.
Bill Landis
Sorry. That just what we're talking about. That game will not be at night because Notre Dame Navy's on NBC that night. So that's either going to be noon or 3:30.
Doug Lamoris
Notre Dame Navy which also a banger first in playoff stuff because Navy is currently one of the undefeated teams in the American although it's a non conference game. But Navy could knock Notre Dame out of the playoff race in South Bend that night. Holy mama, that'd be a thing. Iowa off this week to end the season home Oregon at usc, home. Michigan State at Nebraska. So as we sit here thinking about Big Ten teams in the playoff race, Indiana and Ohio State are eight, no Oregon seven and one. Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska and Washington are six and two and USC is five and two. That's who's in it. So they're like these three teams at the top of the Big Ten and there's five teams that still have two total losses and Iowa is one of those teams and they're playing a one loss team in Oregon and then they're playing two of the other two loss teams in USC and Nebraska. That is a big ask of Oregon, excuse me, of Iowa to get through that. That they are six and two is a great credit to them. And they almost beat Indiana at home, which would make them seven at one. And I do think that like one of their strong like that should be the kind of thing that should be getting them respect because Indiana is throttling everybody and Indiana had to score in the final two minutes to win in Kinnick. So Iowa deserves a lot of respect. But when you are thinking about this playoff race, how much are you thinking about the Hawkeyes right now?
Bill Landis
I thought about them because the other thing I thought too was like well let's say it's not, it's not an Iowa that is nine and three with like say they get Oregon and USC then lose one of those other two but it's like not. It's just like a close game and they kind of lose. That's a pretty compelling 9 and 3 too.
Doug Lamoris
I think that would have to include an Oregon win.
Bill Landis
I think they would have to win. Beat Oregon and USC for them.
Doug Lamoris
Okay.
Bill Landis
Let's even like consider the notion of 9 and 3 Iowa having. Having playoff considerations. But yeah, I definitely thought about them because even like, you know, their two losses currently are.
Doug Lamoris
Right.
Bill Landis
Combined eight points. Right. They, they lost on the road in the rivalry game. The Iowa State, which is not a bad team. And, and the Indiana game, as you.
Doug Lamoris
Said, was close, but it's also not great like is. Iowa State's lost its last three. Iowa State could be stared down the barrel of seven and five. So like, I do. Yeah.
Bill Landis
But they're still.
Doug Lamoris
They are. They've been banged up in the secondary for sure.
Bill Landis
Yeah. I don't know if that'll come.
Doug Lamoris
They've lost in close games.
Bill Landis
Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, I'm not saying like, you know, they're great, but it's not. Losing by three in a rivalry game is not the worst loss in the world. Okay. On the road. So I'm thinking about them. Yeah, I don't, I mean, I'll tell you, I don't have, I don't have them in. I just think like that the Oregon game is too much of a sort of pivot point for me to just assume they're going to win that game. I think they can win that game, but I kind of wanted to wait to see that happen before I started to really consider putting Iowa in my bracket. But, but they're definitely on the list of teams that I sort of like had on the side of like, do I want to do this now or wait?
Doug Lamoris
Yeah, I do. And then like Oregon and then at USC is quite a thing because USC at home is, is. That's going to be a great. Like we saw what they did to Michigan. That's a, that's an ask.
Bill Landis
That is an offense that I think on the right day is the best in college football against a defense that is one of the probably eight best in college football.
Doug Lamoris
So usc, they're done with their buys. They have five games left. They are five and two right now. USC at Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa at Oregon, ucla. Did you think seriously about USC in a playoff bracket? At the moment?
Bill Landis
Yes, but similar. Like I, I have more had usc like a 9 and 3. So. So like they're, they're sort of in there, but not, not a team. I thought about actually putting in my top 12. No. Like kind of on the periphery. Yeah.
Doug Lamoris
So I, I do think like Nebraska as a two loss Big Ten team just feels like they just have too many holes. I think that I just like that's, that's like a team discussions. Like I just, I don't think Nebraska is good enough to go 10 and 2.
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Doug Lamoris
Michigan is good. I think. Like, you know, I did my little graphic this week of like who's mid and who's bad and who's fired and I did not have Michigan as mid. I don't think Michigan is mid. I Think they had a young quarterback go on the road at Oklahoma and they lose that game at Oklahoma. I thought, you know, again what you is, is as good of an offense in the country in USC kind of gashed him a little bit, but like to beat Washington at home, I thought it was like a good win. I think they still like, I think they continue to improve, but it's just hard. Like there's just a giant asterisk with Michigan that I don't think they, I don't know is Michigan with nine and three? No, they're not. It. They're not in. They're not. They, they have to beat Ohio State to get in at this point. If they were only had one loss.
Bill Landis
So far, they're not in a 9 and 3.
Doug Lamoris
So they have to beat Ohio State and it's like are they going to beat the number one team in the country and like we are. Yeah, maybe they are for the fifth straight time. Absolutely they might. But I can't sit and like put Michigan in a playoff bracket because I'd be, I'm assuming a win over Ohio State in that scenario and I, I can't get there at the moment.
Bill Landis
Neither can I. So no, I didn't, I don't have them in. I didn't really consider them because of that. I like and like also in like my current projections I have like USC at 9 and 3. USC and Michigan with the same record. 9 and 3, 7 and 2. But USC won the head to head. So like debuting ahead of Michigan. Yeah.
Doug Lamoris
And so then like Iowa and USC I think are good. I just think it's too much, their schedules are too much that Iowa has three tough games. Oregon, they play each other. So they're gonna like knock each other out. Right. Because we, it's just three losses probably not going to get you in.
Bill Landis
So has there been enough with Oregon though to like, like losing to Indiana the way that they did and then dorking around with Wisconsin the way they just did. Do you view Oregon as any more vulnerable to losing to usc, to Iowa, to Washington than he did prior like two weeks ago coming off Penn State game?
Doug Lamoris
Probably, yes. And, and the idea again like, so, so we talked about this. A lot of this Big ten stuff is going to run through Oregon. But like I don't, I'm not assuming anything. Oregon has to play Iowa and USC and Minnesota and Washington yet like I'm not, I'm not really assuming anything with Oregon. Well, I take that back.
Bill Landis
I'll assume a Minnesota one.
Doug Lamoris
Yeah, but, but like I think they will beat Iowa and usc, but I'm not, like, dismissing the idea of it. Right. But, like, at the moment, I still have Oregon a little bit of a cut above. I think Indiana's freaking good and they have a little bit of thing with Wisconsin that's like two years in a row that Wisconsin really gave Oregon a game. And it just. You talked a lot about Wisconsin's defensive front. I think it could just be like a matchup thing. Of all the things in the world, a Big Ten program that is on fire and a Big Ten program that is competing at the top of the sport actually just might be a weird matchup that Wisconsin knows how to, like, give Oregon trouble. But I'm like, I don't think I'm faded on Oregon at all and my belief that they are a team that still could win the national championship and that I wholeheartedly will believe will be in the playoff. I don't think my mind on Oregon has changed.
Bill Landis
No, my mind hasn't changed in them getting to the playoff necessarily. And it's worth mentioning that between the Indiana game and the Wisconsin game, they blew rucker's doors off.
Doug Lamoris
Yes.
Bill Landis
50S, like 42 to nothing at halftime. Not the Rutgers is great, but it's like they had their stuff together in that game on the road going to the East Coast. I just think Oregon's interesting because of the remainder of that schedule and the fact that I think they could drop one more game. And it's just like, well, then who's that, too? Because then, like, because Iowa, usc, Washington, all theoretically are still alive, right? So it's like if one of those three teams does in fact get Oregon, Oregon will still get in at 10 and 2, I think. But then, like, then you open the door for one of those other three teams, right? Depending on who it is, who beats them.
Doug Lamoris
Let's finish the Iowa discussion. This is a continuing thing of. And again, you made note of it, the Parker Fleming graphic about offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. I think we've talked about it before, but Iowa is very efficient on both sides of the ball. That is not new defensively. It is kind of new offensively. I certainly was like, well, you know, they've been efficient offensively because their quarterback runs. He's still not like, has games where he doesn't throw for 100 yards. And they just absolutely blitzed Minnesota. And I don't want to hand that over only to a blitz. There's certainly sometimes you just get. You just get got. And like, everything went wrong for Minnesota in that game. But also Iowa made everything go wrong. And it was sort of like a three areas of the game where Iowa just dominated what I still think is a pretty good Minnesota team. So, like, are you there on the Iowa offense in a way that you could look at Iowa finishing the season against Oregon, usc, Michigan State, Nebraska and think, yeah, I actually think Mark Gronowski and a great offensive line and couple skill guys who are coming along, I think they could have enough offensively to actually do this.
Bill Landis
You know, I'm not all the way there. No. I think if you look at Mark Karnowski's last couple games, like, you see an uptick in completion percentage. He threw a touchdown pass last week, the Reese Van Der Seed. That was like an incredible catch. Vander Z has been hurt for a lot of the year. He's like kind of getting back into it. So it's like, can he. Can he elevate their passing attack at all? Like it is. It is by far the most functional Iowa passing attack we've seen in quite some time. Probably in like five years or so. But even then, like, it's still not very good. They're like 124th in the country. Passing efficiency, I don't, I don't want to overstate what it is, but I think it is more complimentary of their run game than they've had in quite a while. And I think you can keep an open mind to the idea of it continuing to improve as Gronowski gets a little more comfortable and, and adjust to the speed of playing at this level as opposed to the FCS level and they get healthier receiver. Like I could see it improving marginally from where it's at right now to. To being slightly more functional. And then the run game's good on the offensive line's great. So I don't think we'll ever say like, boy, that Iowa passing offense is pretty good, but we might say it's good enough at some point with everything else they have. I'm not quite there yet, but I do think it's possible because it is. It's hard to ignore some of the, like, the, the advanced metrics, right? Like SP plus is a top 50 offense. Again, it's not great, but this was like a bottom third offense not that long ago. Fei, they're the number 60 offense CFB graphs, which is like EPA per play. They're 54th on offense. So not the profile of a team that's going to win a national championship, but it might be a profile team that can win 10 games and if they do, they're going to get to the playoffs.
Doug Lamoris
There is an early line on Oregon, Iowa since they're not either of them playing this week. Do you want to guess what it is?
Bill Landis
Oregon minus nine and a half.
Doug Lamoris
Six and a half. Okay, so like that, like, so this is because I was just going to say whatever we think next week, I don't know that we'll do a big game breakdown in Iowa, Oregon, but I think when we do our picks next week, not this week, we'll, we'll get into some detail on Oregon, Iowa and I would imagine both of us will be thinking about that game as like, this is a game, Iowa could win this.
Bill Landis
Yeah, I already think, yeah, I would.
Doug Lamoris
Not have thought that before the year. So that's different than picking Iowa to do it. But that's where we are with Iowa. So again I just, let's, let's like make sure we're giving enough credit to, to some of these middle pack Big Ten teams before we get to our actual picks. A couple reminders like subscribe, Tell a friend about the Bill and Doug Show. If you're sitting here and you're like, you know, I'm not subscribed, just go ahead and do it right now so you don't miss anything that we're doing. Whether it's national college football, Northern college football, Big Ten football, whether it's our Ohio State coverage, you'll be locked in for everything. And then we'd remind you to visit our friends at roback.com r h O-B-A-C-K.com Bad20 is the code to use to get 20% off your first order. Go check out their game day collection. Just a bunch of cool stuff. This will become the thing that is like your coolest, highest quality piece of gear within your collection for the team that you love. Right? So bad 20 will get you 20 off your first order. I looked at odds to make the playoff for SEC teams and Big Ten teams. Ohio State was not on the board because like they don't, they don't want to let you bet on. I, I will bet a million dollars on Ohio State to make the playoffs to make $100 because like they don't even want to give you that opportunity. So Ohio State is so locked in the playoff that it's not even there. So they're the heaviest favorite of the SEC and the Big Ten to make the playoff. Here's the next group. There are Ohio State plus six other teams that are minus Money. Which is like, you are odds on favorites to be a college football playoff team. Right Now, Indiana is minus 8, 000, which is. You may as well take them off the board. It's like, I bet $8,000 on Indiana to make the playoff to win a dollar. And then I went to the store and I could buy nothing with a dollar. You like four bananas, maybe three and a half bananas.
Bill Landis
Why does that exist? For who? Who's doing that?
Doug Lamoris
Please don't do it. Please don't be like, I love Indiana so much. It would just be so hilarious. Like, please don't do it. Because whatever. If a kangaroo gets loose and kids kicks Kurt Technetti and Fernando Mendoza and Elijah Surratt and Aiden Fisher and Mikhail Camara and d' Angelo Pons in the head this week and they're all knocked out for the season by getting kicked in the head by the kangaroo. You just lost $8,000 on your funny bet to win a dollar. Please don't do it. Minus 8,000. Texas a M minus 4, 500. So very, very favored to make the playoff. Alabama minus 1200. Georgia minus 375. Ole Miss minus 325. Oregon minus 300. So that is. And then again, Ohio State, as we said, is off the board. So that's seven teams overall, four in the SEC and three in the Big Ten, Bill. Who are just like overwhelming favorites to make the playoff at this point. Junction. Does that seem appropriate to you?
Bill Landis
Yes, those are the team, I guess, with the exception of Ole Miss, like, and you with Alabama, I suppose the teams you most. The teams you most consistently find in most people's playoff projections. I. They have to be in everybody's by this point, I would think. And if you just look at where they've. How they positioned themselves and the remaining schedule, it's like it's really hard to envision a scenario where they would not get in, barring something catastrophic.
Doug Lamoris
Saying this only as a professional ball knower who takes the game very seriously. Do you feel like Alabama was absolutely handed a win by South Carolina last week?
Bill Landis
Yes. It was pick six. Right. And then the.
Doug Lamoris
On a play, Alabama didn't do anything. It was a swing pass in the flat. Yeah. And the South Carolina running back went whoop and popped it up in the air Right to an Alabama guy who ran it back. It wasn't a great.
Bill Landis
Yeah. And then the Lenora Sellers fumble and Pretty advantageous area of the field for that to happen. Yeah. Yeah.
Doug Lamoris
And also just like allowing Alabama to drive and get the two point conversion to tie the game to begin.
Bill Landis
Just how impressive and gritty it was for Jeremy Bernard to score when they let him do it. And Joe was like talking about it like it was the greatest athletic feat he's ever seen. It's like, you know, they let him score.
Doug Lamoris
Right. Just congratulations to the Tide. Just really proud. Really proud. So those seven teams. Here's the rest of the SEC in the Big Ten. Vanderbilt is plus 110. So pretty basically even odds to make the playoff. Tennessee plus 290. Texas plus 390. Oklahoma plus 540. So if you'll notice there, that is now eight SEC teams we're talking about and three Big Ten teams as like the most likely to make the playoff here. So we're just. I'm just noting that as a professional. USC plus 710. Michigan plus 980. Missouri plus 1040. Iowa plus 1300. So 13 1. Washington 141 plus 1400. LSU 25. 1 plus 25 to 1. Just if that. If they made the play without Brian Kelly. I almost would root for LSU now to make the playoff about Brian Kelly that I could get behind. Like we're. I'm in favor of that. You know, some of this is like. Well, they know they don't. They're not saying they think that the betting odds are saying they think eight different SEC teams are going to make the playoff. It's just like some of those SEC teams are going to beat each other and just shake out a certain way. I do think there are some undervalued Big Ten teams in there still in that mix.
Bill Landis
Yeah. I think. I think is Vanderbilt can text or Texas like this week. Like that's. That feels like almost like an elimination game.
Doug Lamoris
Not.
Bill Landis
Not quite. It is for Texas, not quite for Vanderbilt.
Doug Lamoris
But yeah. At Texas.
Bill Landis
Yeah. So yes, I agree with you. There are some undervalued Big Ten teams. And I don't even know that it's wrong necessarily to have those SEC teams ahead of those Big Ten teams. But the gap in the odds, it seems a little. Yeah.
Doug Lamoris
So why don't I go ahead and give you my picks here and. And you can. We can react to them. Does that sound like that Sounds good. Sounds good.
Bill Landis
Sounds great.
Doug Lamoris
All right. My one seed. This is what I think will be the case at the end of the year. Trying to think ahead. Ohio State the 1 seed. Texas A M the 2. Indiana the 3. Miami the 4. That has not changed for me from last week. I still think Miami will make the ACC title game and win the acc. And I, I do think I'm at the point. I mean, like I I like Texas A M again. Look, I've liked Texas A M for a while. Like I I'll be curious to see where you have Texas A M. I think Texas A and Ms. Look good. I have Alabama as the five seed, which is what I had last week. I am still open to Alabama losing along the way here at some point, but also I I thought they've been in danger of losing for five straight weeks and I have to deal with reality. I have Georgia Tech as the six, Notre Dame is the seven, Texas Tech as the eight. I gave in on Ole Miss as the nine seed and and I don't love it. And I do think Ole Miss is still there for the taking, but as we sort of noted with their schedule, I'm just not exactly sure who's going to take them. But Mississippi State and the Egg bowl at the end of the year is certainly one of them and they're eminently capable of screwing up somewhere else, too. Here's where it gets interesting. I have Washington as the 10 and Oregon as the 11. And then I have South Florida as the 12 because even though South Florida lost to Memphis last week, I still think they can make the American title game. They play Navy in the regular season. Navy is undefeated. Tulane is undefeated in the American. I think South Florida and Tulane don't play, but I think if South Florida wins out, which is what I'm projecting at as this point, and then wins the American, I think they're in Washington 10 and Oregon 11. Is Washington beating Oregon in the last game of the regular season and both those teams finishing at 10? 2?
Bill Landis
Yep.
Doug Lamoris
And that's where I started to go through and be like, is this a bloodbath at 10 and 2? How do you figure this out? And then I went through and I think you really like I got Vanderbilt to three losses without being a crazy person because I Vanderbilt already has one loss. I had them losing to Texas this week and then I had them losing at Tennessee and the last game of the regular season. I have Georgia with three losses without being a lunatic. I have Georgia losing to Texas and I have Georgia losing to Georgia Tech. At the end of the year, I have Texas with three losses without being a lunatic because Texas already has two losses. I now have them getting their stuff together a little bit, beating Vanderbilt, beating Georgia, but then losing to Texas A on the last game of the regular season. So I got those three SEC teams to three losses and then I have Tennessee at two losses and Tennessee would have the win over Vanderbilt, but I just think Oregon with what they're going to go through and again, if you think USC finishes pretty good, if you think Iowa finishes pretty good, I think a couple of these Oregon wins will stack up. Basically, I think what I got to is sort of like a 10 and 2 showdown between Oregon and Tennessee for the last spot in the playoff. And I gave the Ducks the edge there. But Washington would be in over Oregon because they would have beaten him head to head and also be 10 and 2. And when we think about Washington, I just think Washington is the. It's partly schedule driven. It's also partly driven by. When they're on. They are on, man. And they get Oregon at home at the end of the year, but they're off this week and then they're at Wisconsin, Purdue, at ucla. So they have like an easy schedule. They. They play three of the the bottom teams in the Big Ten and then they get Oregon at home in a rivalry game then the regular season. And at the moment I have now decided I think Washington's going to win that game. I've kind of been thinking all along they could, but I'm officially there. And then we now enter the thing which you have brought up is are we sure Oregon's in at 10 and 2? I wouldn't bet my life on it, but I could see them winning a battle with a better schedule than people realize. Losses to two playoff teams in this scenario. And then we really dig in on some of the two lost survivors in the sec and do they really have a better resume than Oregon?
Bill Landis
Does I. That entire scenario you laid out, I took a second to consider a 9 and 3 Texas. It has wins against Georgia and Vanderbilt and two of its losses are probably to the top two teams in the country in Ohio State and A and M. Like I. That team might be in.
Doug Lamoris
You think Texas. That's. So that's where we get into. Because again the discussion last year it was a 9 and 3 sec team against an 111 big 10 team game. So now and it's like, hey, the Big Ten won that battle. But that scenario. But the hard thing is like Texas has also looked really bad at times along the way. They should have lost to Kentucky. Right? So are you. It's like this is partly them getting their stuff together, as you said. And then it's like, are you. You know, we're valuing wins over Georgia and Vandy. Clearly those teams are good. But like are we sure that's a better resume than Oregon? It's an interest. It's an interesting conversation. I mean, and I think you're right to bring up something like that because that's. The committee would certainly have that discussion for sure.
Bill Landis
Yeah. And it would depend too, along the way. Like I thought the second half against Mississippi State was probably the best half of football that Arch Manning has played this year and he got knocked out and got knocked out at the end of the game. But if like he starts playing better, if he starts playing better and they beat Vanderbilt and they beat Georgia and they beat Arkansas and then they just play like a really good game against A M at home and lose.
Doug Lamoris
I don't know, man.
Bill Landis
I think that team's in. I just, I just don't know. I just don't know that they're leaving that team out now. There's, there was a lot, there were a lot of ifs in there. I'm not, I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I want to feel super comfortable as a 10 and 2 team compared to a team like that.
Doug Lamoris
But we're also getting to the point, like I'm using Texas to like knock out Vanderbilt and knock out Georgia. So if Texas doesn't do that and Texas gets knocked out, then it's like, okay, then Vandy or Georgia is a two loss team and now do they have, would they get in ahead of Oregon? Right. So like this is it. It is fraught. It is fraught for that team. But I think of all the 10 and two teams like the. I think, I don't think it should. And if, and if Oregon like didn't make it in on the resume, then that, that's fine. Like I would not swing a sword about that. But I just think of all the tenant potential 10 and two Big Ten teams like Oregon probably has the best chance because they're Oregon.
Bill Landis
Yeah. And it would have. I wonder like how the committee would, would, would discuss Oregon beating Penn State at the time that they did. Right. Like is that still valued or does it get totally downgraded because of what happened to Penn State after the fact? I don't know. But then Oregon would still have, still have what I think will end up being a very good win against Iowa and a good win against usc. So. Right. Like Oregon, Oregon does not have, does not have an empty resume in that scenario. But yeah, that would get pretty heated.
Doug Lamoris
I think like we're having a discussion of like are we sure that wins over Iowa and USC aren' wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia? Like why are wins over Vanderbilt and Georgia better than that. Right. The Iowa team that we just talked about that might have nine wins and took Indiana to the wire and Oregon went into their place and beat Iowa. Isn't that a great win? So, like, that's the kind of thing that, again, like, is part of this. Like, and I don't, I really do think the committee does a pretty decent job. I don't think they get caught up in the perception that, like, affects the AP poll and that kind of thing. But this is what we're talking about. Like, this is where I think there's gonna, you know, we'll see what the committee does a week from now. But there's going to be, I think, end up being some really intense 10 and two debates for these last two spots. Right?
Bill Landis
I think there will be. And I, I want to. I'll, I'll put this in here now. So I, I told you I looked this up before we did the show. I CFP graphs. You can make theoretical matchups and then put them on a neutral field. Again, it's just EPA per play. It's not like the end all be all. But I just was curious by their numbers on a neutral field. Iowa would be favored against Ole Miss, Vandy and Missouri and in the ESPN FPI, which again, like, I don't love, but ESPN runs the playoff. Vandy 17, Oklahoma's 18, Missouri's 19 and Iowa's 20. So, like, they're kind of all grouped together there. So again, it's like, how do you value the hypothetical win for anybody against Iowa? My answer would be the same way you would value one against Vandy or Oklahoma or Missouri in the sec. But that's not the discussion that's being had right now.
Doug Lamoris
Yeah. Okay, so my changes were. I put. I put Ole Miss in, I put Washington in. I dropped Georgia out and I dropped Oklahoma out. What's your 12 playoff teams, Bill?
Bill Landis
Yeah, Ohio State is still one for me. I do have a M2. I move them up as well. I have Indiana 3 is a Big Ten runner up. I'm, I'm still on Georgia tech as the ACC champ in the four spot. Alabama 5, Texas Tech 6 is a Big 12 champ. I might be a little. Now that I'm looking at it, I could be a little off on my seating. So I apologize. That's the case. But Georgia 7.
Doug Lamoris
Okay.
Bill Landis
Oregon 8, Miami 9.
Doug Lamoris
Okay.
Bill Landis
Ole Miss 10.
Doug Lamoris
Okay.
Bill Landis
Notre Dame 11. And then I put two lane in. Now is the 16 in the 12 spot.
Doug Lamoris
Okay. Okay. So I think we have like, in your head in your head, do you have a Georgia Tech, Georgia result? Do you think Georgia Tech beats Georgia?
Bill Landis
Yes, that's why I have them in the four spot. Yeah.
Doug Lamoris
But then you think, are you thinking to yourself that's, that's a, that's a 10 and two Georgia team.
Bill Landis
Let me look at my projections here. Now that you're asking me. Yeah, 10 and 2 Georgia. Yeah. So Georgia. Yeah. Beating Florida, Mississippi State, Texas and Charlotte, then losing the Georgia Tech.
Doug Lamoris
Okay, so you have Georgia in and I don't. And I think that's the only thing that I have. You have Georgia, I have Washington. I think is our, our only disagreement here. And then Tulane versus South Florida. You know, this, this American thing's going to shake itself out. Like we still, it's great, great fun, great games. Navy's absolutely in that mix. I mean, I don't know, not particularly sure why we're not both saying Navy right now, but Tulane and Navy are the two teams that are undefeated in conference play on the American. Navy is still undefeated overall. Tulane's only losses to Ole Miss. And then. And Tulane has like a win over Northwestern that like Northwestern's 5 and 3. Like Northwestern's a decent team and Tulane blew their doors off in the opener. New Orleans.
Bill Landis
So Navy's got to kind of run the gauntlet though in the. Navy's got to play North Texas, USF.
Doug Lamoris
And Memphis and then squeezing another Damien in between. Right. Yeah.
Bill Landis
Did you. By the way, I wanted to you. I put this in our sub stack chat as it was happening on Saturday when Alabama looked like it might lose to South Carolina. Kaylin DeBoer at Alabama is 7 and 1 against ranked FBS teams and 5 and 4, 4 against unranked FBS teams, which is just like insane. But that's just a way of saying like they're, they're the dorkiest around the team in the country. And that's what the rest of their schedule is kind of. Right. So they don't play at their best in games like that. And I just think like, it's like, I guess I would say this, like if they lose to lsu, I wouldn't be surprised.
Commercial Narrator 4
Right?
Doug Lamoris
Yeah, absolutely.
Bill Landis
Lsu, Oklahoma, Auburn.
Doug Lamoris
Yep. And they, and that's, I mean South Carolina is exactly that kind of team. South Carolina is 3 and 5. South Carolina lost to Vanderbilt, Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma and they should have beaten Alabama. So like, I think that is, you know, that's why I certainly don't completely trust Alabama. But then it's like, well, if they get in the playoff they're not playing on ranked teams. They're playing all good teams and he has a good record against good teams. So I do think again, like the Big 12 thing, you and I are both just leaning still on Texas Tech. I'm not sure we have a great reason for that. Like I'm a, I've been slow to come around probably on BYU and I'm not sure why they're, they're eight. No. For the second consecutive year, Kalani Sataki is amazing. They lost their quarterback. They're starting a true freshman at quarterback and they are eight. No. So why don't we have. But it's also one of those things like it's going to get figured out because BYU is off this week and then they play Texas Tech. So then we'll probably just have the winner of that game as our Big 12 champ for now until they play Cincinnati. So like the three teams that, you know, Texas Tech has one loss, you and I keep put putting there as the Big 12 champ. But the two undefeated teams in the Big 12 are Cincinnati and BYU. And BYU plays both Texas Tech and Cincinnati before the end of the year. So this stuff's going to get figured out.
Bill Landis
Yeah.
Doug Lamoris
But credit to byu.
Bill Landis
No. Yeah, for sure. I, I, So it's mostly a byproduct. It was just like I'm not sure. So I'll, I guess I'll just keep putting Texas Tech in there. If you look at the teams at the top of the Big 12, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Texas Tech. BYU plays two games against those teams. Cincinnati plays one, Texas Tech plays one. Houston doesn't play any. So okay, like Houston plays TCU, which is like a two loss team in the Big 12, which I think is pretty good. But Houston might actually have like the best path to the, to the Big 12 title game among those teams. I could see anybody getting there. Like I, I truly just have kind of no idea who's going to play in the Big 12 championship. Yeah. If it like I think all four of those teams could be there. Cincinnati's got a couple bangers. Cincinnati plays BYU, UT and TCU. Yeah. So they'll earn it if they get there.
Doug Lamoris
Cincinnati, byu. This week is awesome. Like that's like.
Commercial Narrator 3
Yeah.
Doug Lamoris
This week. Yeah, like watch that. That's going to be a great game. And it's, it's going to be one of those like so, so Texas Tech beat Houston. That's Houston's Big 12 losses. Texas Tech would have the tiebreaker against Houston. But like if somehow, if it's like Texas Tech gets tripped up against somebody and. And then looks like, like the Big 12 title game is probably Houston versus the BYU Cincinnati winner. And there might be a lot of people thinking, like, man, Texas Tech's the best team in the Big 12 and they're not in the Big 12 title game. But I, no offense to the Big 12, I doubt that a 10 and two Big 12 team that's not in the championship game is going to make the playoff. So, like, Texas Tech is. Is on one. Like, they. Texas Tech has no room for error, no matter how impressive they've looked at various times this year.
Bill Landis
So they just lost. Baron Morton, the starting quarterback, had not been playing, and Will Hammond, his backup, was playing, but then he got hurt. Now he's out for the year, I think, and Baron Morton's coming back. So there's some weird quarterback stuff happening at Texas.
Doug Lamoris
Yeah. So anyway, those are our, Those are our playoff ideas for now. We'll have them again next week. But then, like, again, we're trying to project what we actually think it will be at the end of the year. And once the first playoff committee rankings come out, that will affect how we think. Bill. Because if we're doing something and, you know, if Oregon's fourth next week because Ohio State's one in Indiana's three and they think Oregon is awesome, you know, like, that will affect how we think, then it's like, oh, could a 10 and two Oregon get in? It's like, yeah, I think a tenant to Oregon probably be in great shape. They seem to love Oregon. Or if Washington's 23rd. And then it's like, oh, like, you know what I mean? So, like, we're. Our minds will change to some degree based on what the committee does.
Bill Landis
Yeah, no, they will. It is just kind of interesting. There's no, like, Cincinnati, Utah says, like, a huge game and like, Oklahoma plays Tennessee, but there's not a lot of bangers among, like, the teams we think could be in the playoff. Vanderbilt, Texas. So like the, the. Or Oregon and Iowa. And I think to some extent Ohio State, even though Ohio State does play, Penn State have sort of, like, made their cases already for their initial playoff ranking. So I'm interested to see what kind of move the teams that do play games of note this weekend could make.
Doug Lamoris
Because, like, Ohio State, Penn State is supposed to be the banger. We knew this all year. It's like Ohio State, Penn State, they. You. They often, not always, but often play on Halloween weekend. And that's right before the first playoff rankings come out. Like that's going to be a huge thing. And then it's like, we know what happened with Penn State.
Bill Landis
So here we are Saturday night too.
Doug Lamoris
Oh, okay. We got, so there are a couple like Vanderbilt, Texas, to your point, is kind of an eliminator. And usc. Nebraska is kind of an eliminator. So like, this is, this is where we are that we, we can legitimately look at some games like this. And like, just like we said last week, Illinois, Washington was an eliminator. Illinois is not making the playoffs. Nebraska, Northwestern wasn't eliminated. Northwestern's not making the playoff. And Minnesota, Iowa was an eliminator. Minnesota's not making the playoff. We didn't talk about any of those three teams this week because they're all, all three lost teams. And the two lost teams that won those games we did talk about because they're still alive. All right, that's it. It, we do it every Tuesday but next week. And I'm a little frustrated. I mean I'm always frustrated by this because God forbid that college football, the second most popular sport in America actually like take priority as opposed to being the equivalent of they're having barking dogs chase Frisbees at halftime. Oh, wait, we're also going to release the College Football Playoff rankings during that. It's, I think it's somewhere between 8 and 8:45 is what the College Football Playoff website says about when the rankings are coming out next Tuesday.
Bill Landis
Oh, really? I thought the first one was usually like right at seven, like leading into like the first action games of the year. So now that's what I thought. Yeah, I looked it up.
Doug Lamoris
I didn't make it up.
Bill Landis
Is there basketball?
Doug Lamoris
Is that why, I assume because why wouldn't, why wouldn't the College Football Playoff rankings be anything other than halftime entertainment about non conference basketball games that nobody cares about? Well, no offense.
Bill Landis
Yeah, that must be what it is.
Doug Lamoris
Tuesday, November 4, it says 8pm but like I saw a thing that said between 8, 8:45 and then like it gets back to 7 in some other weeks.
Bill Landis
Oh, but the thing like, yeah, the, the typical basketball thing that has the playoff rankings between it is not next Tuesday. Basketball does start next Monday, but I don't know. That's strange.
Doug Lamoris
So anyway, we'll be on talking about what actually happened. We'll be giving our opinion about how all these things should unfold, what they got right, what they got wrong. Right. I mean that's, that's, that's what we want to do. And I, and I do think it's fun but it's also okay to be frustrated while you're having fun. Right. Okay. To be frustrated while you're having fun. That's. I make my family wear those T shirts on vacation. It's okay to be frustrated while you're having fun. So. So, okay, maybe I read this wrong. It says 8, 8, 845. Maybe that means it will last from 8 until 8:45. I thought it meant that it was like it's going to come out sometime in there.
Bill Landis
So it looks like the show starts at 8. Yeah.
Doug Lamoris
Okay. So it's definitely at 8. Okay.
Bill Landis
And then it leads into. There is a basketball game at 8:45 on ESPN. So it'll lead into that.
Doug Lamoris
Okay. And then the weeks after that, it's at 7, 8:37 7. And then obviously it's at noon on the Sunday, December 7th. So. Okay. Hopefully we'll be done by like 8:16 to actually have.
Bill Landis
Oh, I wonder if it's 8:00 clock because it's election night.
Doug Lamoris
Oh, yeah. Okay. Also, by the way, as we're electing like the leaders of the free world, tune in.
Bill Landis
We're gonna react live to that check.
Doug Lamoris
Yeah. Did your levy pass? Bill Landis has an opinion about that. All right, so we'll see you guys next week for a playoff show. Join us with everything else we do here on the Bill and Doug Show. Try our Ohio State substack if you want. Billanddugosu.substack.com like, subscribe, tell a friend about the Bill and Doug Show. For now, he's Bill Landis, I'm Doug Lamoris. And that was the Bill and Doug Show.
Episode: College Football Playoff picks: Odds for Big Ten/SEC contenders; Iowa's chances; is Ole Miss in?
Date: October 29, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis (Blue Wire)
This week, Doug and Bill break down the evolving College Football Playoff (CFP) picture as the regular season enters its home stretch. The hosts dissect recent games, scrutinize the outlook for major contenders in the Big Ten and SEC, and debate which teams still realistically have a playoff shot. Special spotlights go to the Iowa Hawkeyes’ playoff prospects, the resurgence of Ole Miss, and the tangled mess of possible two- and three-loss teams vying for the last playoff spots.
| Timestamp | Segment | |---------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | [01:16] | CFP bracket approach: Weekly projections | | [02:32] | SEC skepticism — audience reaction | | [03:12] | Iowa–Minnesota recap; Iowa playoff path | | [04:38] | Ole Miss’s chances — is Lane Kiffin in? | | [09:17-10:47] | Iowa’s playoff path and schedule | | [16:03] | Michigan and USC’s playoff hopes | | [19:18] | Oregon’s vulnerability and remaining schedule | | [21:16-22:45] | Iowa offensive improvement by the metrics | | [24:40-25:48] | CFP betting odds rundown — Big Ten and SEC | | [27:14] | Alabama’s luck versus South Carolina | | [29:32] | Odds for SEC and Big Ten teams outside top favorites| | [30:00] | Doug’s full 12-team playoff projection | | [38:25] | Bill's 12-team playoff bracket revealed | | [41:24-43:41] | Sorting the Big 12 and Group of Five | | [46:12] | Implications of upcoming “elimination” games |
Doug and Bill set the stage for a wild November, with upsets remaining likely and committee rankings just around the corner. The hosts’ playoff projections highlight just how contentious the final spots—especially for two-loss teams from both the SEC and Big Ten—could be. Meanwhile, Iowa (and to a lesser extent, USC and Oregon) emerge as big storylines in the week ahead, with the much anticipated Oregon–Iowa showdown looming.
Next week: A full reaction to the first official College Football Playoff rankings and how they're likely to reshape the playoff race.