College Football Playoff picks: Will Ohio State repeat according to Doug and Bill?

Summary

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The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk

Podcast Host: Blue Wire
Episode: College Football Playoff picks: Will Ohio State repeat as according to Doug and Bill?
Date: December 12, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode is dedicated to breaking down the 2025 College Football Playoff, with a special focus on Ohio State's chances of repeating as national champions. Doug Lesmerises and Bill Landis—veteran beat writers with over 30 years covering the Buckeyes—discuss playoff picks, analyze every first-round matchup, debate the national media consensus, and walk listeners through their full bracket predictions, all with their signature blend of sharp football insight and tongue-in-cheek humor. They challenge prevailing narratives, highlight big-picture storylines, and, as always, put Midwest fans first in the national conversation.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

The National Championship Pick Landscape

• Opening Stat: Doug surveyed 25 national writers/pundits regarding their national championship picks.

  • Ohio State: 11 picks
  • Indiana: 4
  • Georgia: 8
  • Texas Tech: 2 (no one picked Oregon)
  • (03:02) “Get yourself a Roback right there. Forget the mailman. Nailed it. 11.” – Bill Landis

• Georgia Hype: Both hosts question the basis for continuing faith in Georgia, noting unimpressive performances and a less dominant defense compared to previous years.

  • (04:19) “I think there was a notion that Georgia had started to figure some stuff out... but maybe this is more or less the same team I thought they were all year, which is... kind of a flaw team.” – Doug
  • (06:18) “Yeah, I think you're stretching on Georgia if you're picking them to win it all because... Georgia just is not as disruptive defensively as usual.” – Bill

• Playoff Odds (06:33):

  • Ohio State: +195
  • Indiana: +300
  • Georgia: +600
  • Oregon & Texas Tech: +850
  • Large gap to next tier (e.g., Texas A&M; Miami)

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First-Round Game Picks and Analysis

Alabama vs. Oklahoma (at Oklahoma)

• Bill: Picks Oklahoma, doubts Bama's legitimacy, lampoons their repeated mediocrity.
  • (08:48) “I think I would rather beat myself to death with this Stanley mug than pick Alabama.” – Bill
• Doug: Picks Alabama, expecting fewer mistakes than in the regular-season loss.
  • (09:07) “Oklahoma’s defense is very good... but I’ll just assume that they won’t make as many mistakes again and I think they can win a close one.”

Oregon vs. James Madison

• Both agree: Oregon wins handily; Doug doesn’t see a G5 upset beginning here (12:30).

Texas A&M vs. Miami

• Both pick Miami, but neither is confident; both criticize the limited offensive upside of either squad and note questionable QB play.
  • (14:46) “I’ll pick Miami too, primarily... I think [Carson Beck] is at the very least playing much better than Marcel Reed has played lately... I'll take Miami and not feel great about it.” – Doug

Ole Miss vs. Tulane

• Bill calls the upset for Tulane, noting Ole Miss’s coaching drama (Lane Kiffin’s departure) and increased motivation for Tulane.
  • (18:42) “Give me Tulane. ...Let’s have some comeuppance for this chaos because I feel Lane Kiffin leaving Ole Miss was the number one story in college football and now he’s gone.” – Bill
• Doug would take Tulane with the points but ultimately sticks with Ole Miss due to FBS roster depth.
  • (19:55) “I think their offense could look quite clunky and this could be close, but I think I'd still pick the team with the deeper level of FBS talent.” – Doug

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Quarterfinals and Semifinals

Indiana vs. Alabama/Oklahoma

• Both hosts have Indiana advancing, regardless of their opponent.
  • (22:44) “Alabama has not impressed me all year. And Indiana is at the very least the second best team in the country. Maybe the best.” – Doug

Oregon vs. Texas Tech

• Oregon advances in both brackets.
  • (23:35) “This is my don’t forget about Oregon warning and I’ll take Oregon.” – Bill
  • (25:43) Both note Oregon’s health and emotional edge after last year’s letdown.

Ohio State vs. Miami

• Both pick Ohio State, but note that Miami’s defensive line could present challenges, especially if OSU’s O-line struggles as it did vs. Indiana.
  • (29:06) “If it plays the way that it played up front against Indiana, it can lose to Miami. I don’t think it will.” – Doug

Georgia vs. Ole Miss/Tulane

• Both take Georgia moving forward, but Bill is underwhelmed by the Dawgs’ draw.

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Final Four & Championship Picks

Semifinal Matchups

• Indiana vs. Oregon

  • Both pick Oregon, with injuries on Indiana’s defense cited as the turning point.
  • (33:16) “I kind of think, like, Oregon’s going to do to Indiana what Ohio State did to Oregon last year—not win by that margin necessarily, but just sort of like avenge a regular season loss in the playoff.” – Doug

• Ohio State vs. Georgia

  • Both select Ohio State, referencing its dominant defense and the “revenge” angle after the 2022 Peach Bowl loss to Georgia.
  • (34:50) “I am picking Ohio State to be Georgia and avenge its 2022 Peach Bowl loss.” – Doug

National Championship Game: Ohio State vs. Oregon

• The hosts note that no national writer in Doug’s survey picked this exact matchup.

  • (35:18) “None. A couple people had Oregon in the national championship game, but both people who did had them against Georgia... So you can think that we share a brain, but we're not sharing it with anyone else.” – Bill

• Both pick Ohio State to repeat as National Champion

  • (38:03) “Yeah, so did I. It's really honest. It's just like it's the defense, right? Like, I don't think Ohio State will see a better offense the rest of the way than the one they just played against Indiana.” – Doug
  • (39:46) Bill rattles off the defensive points allowed all season (7, 0, 9, 6, 3, etc.), reinforcing belief that “If the Ohio State offense can get to 20, they're in pretty darn good shape.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• (03:02) Bill Landis (on Doug guessing the media picks):
  “Get yourself a Roback right there. Forget the mailman. Nailed it. 11. You win a row back.”

• (08:48) Bill Landis:
  “I think I would rather beat myself to death with this Stanley mug than pick Alabama.”

• (09:52) Bill (dog-walking tangent on Oklahoma catching Bama’s mistakes):
  “Have you ever seen the people... catch it like soft serve ice cream right out of their chute... Please let us know how and why you do that.”

• (18:42) Bill (calling Tulane’s upset):
  “Give me Tulane. I can’t... Let’s have some comeuppance for this chaos because I feel Lane Kiffin leaving Ole Miss was the number one story in college football and now he’s gone...”

• (33:16) Doug (on Oregon avenging regular season):
  “I kind of think, like, Oregon’s going to do to Indiana what Ohio State did to Oregon last year—not win by that margin necessarily, but just sort of like avenger regular season loss in the playoff and take it to the national championship.”

• (35:18) Bill (on their unique title game pick):
  “None. A couple people had Oregon in the national championship game, but both people who did had them against Georgia... So you can think that we share a brain, but we're not sharing it with anyone else.”

• (38:03) Doug (on Ohio State’s true test):
  “It's the defense, right? Like, I don't think Ohio State will see a better offense the rest of the way than the one they just played against Indiana.”

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Important Segment Timestamps

• [02:48] – Doug and Bill guess how national writers are voting in CFB Playoff
• [06:33] – Review of betting odds for title contenders
• [08:48] – First round picks (Alabama/Oklahoma, Oregon/JMU, etc.)
• [18:42] – Bill calls Tulane to upset Ole Miss
• [22:14] – Quarterfinal bracket breakdowns
• [27:37] – Ohio State vs Playoff Quarterfinal Opponents
• [32:24] – Indiana vs. Oregon: History and injury implications
• [34:50] – OSU avenging 2022 Peach Bowl vs Georgia (National Semifinal)
• [35:18] – The “no one else has this” title game: Ohio State vs. Oregon
• [38:03] – Both pick Ohio State to repeat; Confidence in defense

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Tone & Style

Doug and Bill keep things light, sardonic, and irreverent (see: “beat myself to death with this Stanley mug” and dog poop metaphors), but always grounded in deep football knowledge and respect for their audience’s intelligence. They mix statistical rigor and film study notes, but never at the cost of momentum or relatability.

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Takeaway for Listeners

If you missed the show, here’s what you need to know:

• Doug and Bill are bullish on Ohio State, believe Georgia is overrated, and expect Oregon to be the “overlooked” dangerous team.
• They aren’t afraid to make unconventional picks, call out committee decisions, or question media groupthink.
• Their final: Ohio State over Oregon for the national title, with defense and depth as the key factors.
• They provide thoughtful analysis of upsets and bracket chaos, showing an appreciation for humor and humility along the way.

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Transcript

[Doug Les Maurice]

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[Bill Landis]

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[Doug Les Maurice]

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[Doug Les Maurice]

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[Bill Landis]

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[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, let's do it. And if it's right, I will brag about it. And if it's wrong, don't hold me accountable for it.

[Bill Landis]

It's podcasting 101 right there. That's why you're a champion. Douglan Reese and Bill Landis, thanks for being here. Go to Roback R-H-O-B-A C K.com do your holiday shopping. Like that. Bang. You're done. 12 minutes. Grandma, Grandpa, Aunt, uncle, cousin, neighbor, friend, mailman. Man, if you get your mailman a roback.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Oh wow.

[Bill Landis]

Come on.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Good.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, you're gonna get the best letters. Roback.com hoodies, quarter zips, polos, 20 off with the code. Bad 20. Like subscribe, tell a friend about the Bill and Doug Show. Bill Landis, I looked at 25 national football folks. I looked at the CBS sports people. I looked at what they had put out for some of the athletic folks. I looked at what ESPN.com did saw Nicole Auerbach from NBC Sports grabbed our friend ari Wasserman from On3. Also JD Pickleman from On3. 25 people and who they pick to Win the national championship.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

How many you think picked Ohio State out of 25?

[Doug Les Maurice]

11.

[Bill Landis]

Get yourself a roback right there. Forget the mailman. Nailed it. 11. You win a row back. Guess how Many picked Indiana.

[Doug Les Maurice]

5. 4.

[Bill Landis]

Guess how many picked Georgia.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Let me do math. So we're at 16 out of 25.

[Bill Landis]

15 out of 25. 15.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Oh, 15 out of 25. Georgia. Nine.

[Bill Landis]

Eight. Okay, so there's two left. How would you think they were distributed?

[Doug Les Maurice]

One to Oregon and one to Texas Tech.

[Bill Landis]

Both the Texas Tech. I have not seen anybody pick Oregon to win the national title yet.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Interesting.

[Bill Landis]

Okay, of the people who. What else they picked for Ohio State again? Ohio State. 11 titles. 4 make the championship and lose 10. Losing the semis to Georgia. There is a Georgia vibe that no offense is ridiculous. So I don't know what's wrong with everybody. What are they seeing? The people who are getting ready to ride that dog. They're riding that dog all the way until the third week of January. Why?

[Doug Les Maurice]

I think there was a notion that Georgia, like, had was starting to figure some stuff out right before the game against Georgia Tech. I know I felt that way. And then you watch them play against Georgia Tech, you're like, okay, maybe this is more or less the same team I thought they were all year, which is like, not a bad team, but. But a kind of a flaw team. And then they got to the SEC championship and won handily against a team they often lose to. So I get it. And I also think. I don't know that this is right necessarily. And certainly last year told us that it. That it probably doesn't matter, but people like to pick, like, the hot team going into the NCAA tournament. And I wonder if people want to pick the hot team going into the college football playoff in Georgia, I guess, is kind of hot. Although a lot of teams are coming in off of multiple wins in a row.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I. The Georgia Tech game means something to me. I, I. Whatever. That. That Kirby was able to shake off his Bama thing and beat a very mid Bama team in the SEC championship game doesn't really impress me that much. Gunner stock handles.

[Doug Les Maurice]

So they were. I'm just gonna. I'm running through. They lost Alabama. They didn't really, like, blow anyone's doors off. It's 3510 against Texas, 35 three against Charlotte, then 16, nine against Georgia Tech, and then 28 seven against Alabama. But there's not like, all of a sudden, Georgia started beating teams. 52. 0 in here, 41, 21 against Mississippi State, 2420 against a bad Florida team rivalry game, whatever. Only beat Ole Miss by a touchdown and like Ole Miss was like threatening to I think come back from a pretty big lead there from pretty big deficit there. So.

[Bill Landis]

That was a long time ago.

[Doug Les Maurice]

But should have lost Tennessee 44, 41 against Tennessee. Yeah. So I don't know like there's, I think there's a thought that the defense is rounding into form. Gunner Stockton's a little bit of a gamer. I don't know.

[Bill Landis]

I'm not.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I certainly don't write them off but I think there's probably a little too much confidence in Georgia based off not a lot of reason to feel that way.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I think you're stretching on Georgia if you're picking them to win at all because as you've been pointing out, I mean it's like the, the front four havoc rate that you've talking about. Like Georgia just is not as disruptive defensively as usual and I honestly think there's one guy who scares you on offense outside the QB in Zachariah Branch and then like I said I just don't, I just don't know who else like you're game planning around as a defense and so yeah odds to win it. Ohio State becoming more of a favorite. They're currently at plus 195 to be the national champ. Indiana 3 to 1 plus 300. Georgia 6 to 1. Oregon and Texas Tech both plus 850. So that's your top five then a big gap. Texas A and M 191 Bama 221 Miami 221 Old Miss 271 Oklahoma 50 to 1 and then Tulane and James Madison 750 to 1 at all. So we are going to go through our bracket the first round games. Alabama is favored by a point and a half over Oklahoma. The game is at Oklahoma and Oklahoma's beaten Alabama already. Oregon is favored by 21 and a half in the 512 matchup against James Madison. Texas A M at home is favored by three and a half against Miami in the 710 matchup and Ole Miss at home is favored by 17 and a half against Tulane, a team that they beat earlier this year 45 to 10. They have look ahead lines for the quarterfinals as well, but we'll talk to them after we do like our first round picks. So let's start with Alabama. Oklahoma. I think I would rather beat myself to death with this Stanley mug than pick Alabama. I was filling up my Stanley mug at my favorite convenience store on Thursday afternoon and I dropped the mug and it sounded like a cannonball. And the manager came out, was like, is everything okay? And I was like, I dropped my mug. I'm sorry. I would rather drop the mug again against my cranium. I don't like Oklahoma either, but this is not like, what, what. We're going to have Ralph Russo on the show. I love Ralph Russo at the Athletic. He picked Alabama to beat Oklahoma and also beat Indiana. And he was like, I don't think Alabama should be in the playoff, but I picked him to make the semis. And I was like, are you throwing your career away, Ralph? Like, what is this? There's nothing. What is there? What, what is leading you to Alabama beating anybody? I'll take Oklahoma.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I'll take Alabama in this game. This is like the one I, I did not take like a super hard look at. Oh, well, I guess that's not true. Like Miami A M is a real game.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Les Maurice]

When, when Oklahoma beat Miami or excuse me, when Oklahoma beat Alabama. Alabama turned the ball over three times with the 17 points for Oklahoma, which has a terrible offense. Oklahoma scored in an 87 yard pick six Bama also missed a field goal. They just like pooped the game away. Alabama did. And certainly they're capable of doing that again here on the road against Oklahoma. And Oklahoma's defense is very good. But I'll just like assume that, that they won't make as many mistakes again and I think they can win a close one against Oklahoma.

[Bill Landis]

I will say, would it not be true that Alabama has tried to poop away many games this year and, and several opponents have been unwilling to catch the poop and Brett Venables, to his credit, was right there with that dog.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Bag waiting for it.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. Yeah, right. Have you ever seen the people, some people on the dog walk, they catch it like soft serve ice cream right out of their chute. They don't even wait for it to hit the grass. What are those people doing?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah. Absolutely insane.

[Bill Landis]

Those people are either geniuses or their maniacs. So if you are a person who is catching it right out of the dog, straight out, never hits the ground, please let us know how and why you do that, find us on Twitter and respond. But that's what Brent Venables and John Mattier in Oklahoma did. And also John Mateer was playing with one hand against Alabama and I'm going to assume his other hand has grown back by this point. Has his hand grown back?

[Doug Les Maurice]

So one thing I, I wrote a thing on our sub stack about. Just like it was mostly about Ohio State's path. But in that I did go and look at like quarterback play over the last month because while I I think like team form might be a little bit misleading, I think like quarterback form might be a little more instructive. John Matier, like by far the worst quarterback over the last month. Like it's not even close if I could find it.

[Bill Landis]

This is a very difficult position that the committee has put us in where you're having to pick one of these mid SEC teams and in the course of picking one having to try to find something nice to say about them. And so I should have just stopped with Brent Venables, caught Alabama's poop. I shouldn't have had to try to lean into John Matir at all.

[Doug Les Maurice]

So there are many ways to whatever decipher this. I just used overall PFF offensive grade since November 1st among FBS quarterbacks with 100 drop backs which was a sample size of 112 FBS quarterbacks. Overall PFF grade John Mateer was 98th out of 100 out of 112.

[Bill Landis]

Okay, good luck.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Ty Simpson 69th like Ty Simpson. Not great either. 69th but not 98th.

[Bill Landis]

What have they done to us?

[Doug Les Maurice]

John Mateer over that spanned two big time throws, five turnover worthy plays.

[Bill Landis]

If they had gotten the bracket a little bit different and if Alabama and Oklahoma were playing Texas A and M and Miami, I'd pick Texas A and M and Miami in either of those two matchups. I didn't care how it worked out. You know what I mean?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I think I would have too.

[Bill Landis]

Instead we have this mid showdown. All right. You take bam. I take Oklahoma. That was too much expenditure that. Oregon JMU 21 1/2 Someday a Group of 5 team is going to beat a Power 4 team in the first round. I do not think it starts with James Madison in Oregon.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Neither do I. I have Oregon Ducks.

[Bill Landis]

Texas A, Miami 3 1/2, Texas A and M favored at home. I just started. I just started watching a little bit. I watched the first drive of Miami pit on the highlight reel and it was just taking forever and everything was a three yard gain and Carson Beck dropped the most awk awkward spin move that I have ever seen in my life. It he scrambled out of the pocket and it was a fine job by a quarterback trying to make a play. But it was a two footed spin move. It was like a set shot version of a spin move that it was like in slow motion. I have no idea what it was. And they wound up kicking a field goal And I went to that, I went into that thinking like, let me watch some good Miami because they like handled 38, three or whatever it was in that game. They handled it and I watched four minutes of it. I was like, this is good Miami. What is this? Why is Miami in the playoffs? Like, what are we doing? But I'm gonna take Miami, I'm gonna watch the rest of the I'm gonna watch more Miami games and I'm gonna assume that there's gonna be something good in the Miami viewing post September. But now I'm getting worried. I'm getting worried if there will be or not.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, there may not be, but there's also like not a there. I don't think there's a ton of like super impressive on either of these teams resumes other than them both beating Notre Dame and Texas A M needed to cheat to do it. So yeah, I didn't cheat, but there was a very egregious holding penalty that was not called on their game winning touchdown. I when is when the bracket first came out, I think I was like very quickly like a mic. I have not thought about it a ton, but I thought about it some and like looked over some things and I I'll pick Miami too, primarily. I know you don't love Carson Beck, whatever you think of him, I I think he is at the very least playing much better than Marcel Reed has played lately. It's sort of a thing like which which untrustworthy quarterback do you trust the most? And it's like, I guess I'll trust Carson Beck even though they're on the road at a. M. So I'll I'll take Miami and not feel great about it.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

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[Bill Landis]

It's really not about feeling sorry for Notre Dame. It's about being mad at Notre Dame.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I don't feel so. Yeah, I'm pissed at them.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, they should be in here. What did you do? What have you done to us?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Ole Miss, Tulane. This is at Ole Miss again. They played earlier this season and it was not close. Ole Miss is favored by 17 and a half. However, in that first game, Jake Retzlaff for Tulane threw for like 56 yards and got benched. And Ole Miss just scored on practically every possession in that game. And overall, Ole Miss does not have a very highly ranked defense. But Tulane, I think, just got in its own way. They had a couple drops in that game. And again, like, when you go through Red Sloth's individual stats, it just stands. He got benched in the second half for Brendan Sullivan. It just stands out. Like everything since then. It's like 280 passing yards, 238 passing yards, 311 passing yards. It's like, why do you have 56 pass passing yards against Ole Miss? So I do. You can't ignore that. But I think the combination of Tulane played terrible. If you think John Sumrall is a good coach. Jake Retzlaff made it through a Big 12 schedule last year. He's been in big games. And you have to account in some form. Even though the committee in the end did not at all account for the fact that Lane Kiffin and the staff left, but now they let the offensive staff come back to Ole Miss for. From lsu. I have think it has a chance to be wonky for Ole Miss here. Like, how are you trying to evaluate Ole Miss?

[Doug Les Maurice]

I mean, similarly to everything you just sort of laid out. I just don't. You can watch Ole Miss and, and be pretty impressive what they do offensively. Like, sometimes they do look like a bit of a machine offensively, but I just, like, I have a hard time seeing them be that without Lane Kiffin on the sideline and also with a defense like getting their second crack at them. So I don't know, like, who. Who has more like high leverage game experience? Jake Russell, I guess like Trinidad. Trinidad Chambers is a champion at lower levels of college football. But like that, yeah, you must like Prefer his like Red Slab's experience maybe over. Over shambles is in this game. I. I don't know. What's the spread?

[Bill Landis]

17 and a half. And it was 45. 10 first time around.

[Doug Les Maurice]

We're not doing that here. But like, I. I think I would like. Would very much be interested in taking. Taking two lane with the points, but I don't know that I can actually win.

[Bill Landis]

Give me two lane. I can't.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Like you're calling it.

[Bill Landis]

I'll call it. I'll call my shot.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

Just because. How can I. I have to pick one SEC team because they made the matchup. But I. I do think you honestly can look at this with the old miss Chaos with the viewing the. The fact that Tulane got us destroyed the first time around more as a motivating learning experience for what actually is a pretty decent team as opposed to proof that they have no chance to compete. Right. So it's not. I mean Tulane went through its schedule then in the American and they weren't destroying people either there necessarily. I mean 38, 32, Memphis 24, 17 against Army, 26, 19 against East Carolina. Like, we understand that it is just a different level of competition, but they did handle their business. They. They blew out Northwestern to start the year. They beat Duke the week before they beat Ole Miss. Like, I think. I think they're a decent football team. And I just think if. If you're a decent football team, is that enough to trip up a team whose hood coach left for a better job?

[Doug Les Maurice]

I. Yeah, I don't know. I think. I think maybe. Yeah. And there's some. There's some FBS talent on 2 lanes roster. The thing that would like really jumped out to me as I was like going through some stuff again. Just sort of like Cursory. In both SP plus and the For Mo index, James Madison's like 20 points higher than Tulane. Yeah, it's kind of weird. Like I could. We all think of like Tulane is like this very good G6 team. It's like, well, I don't know. Opponent adjustment metrics seem to think James Madison's better, right?

[Bill Landis]

No, I was sort of like, yes, cruising through there and they were like 57th or something. Tulane was.

[Doug Les Maurice]

And I was like, what?

[Bill Landis]

So it's a crazy pick, but I just hate the sec and so I don't think Ole Miss should be six. I think this is a chaotic dingleberry fest. Like, let's have. Let's have some comeuppance for this chaos because I feel Lang Kiffin leaving Ole Miss was the number one story in college football and now he's gone and I don't. I don't know. Like. Like, are people talking about, like, hey, like, what is Ole Miss? How could Ole Miss play? Their coach left. They're in tatters. I don't know that that's like. I don't know. Maybe I'm just not listening.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Shows like Charlie Weiss Jr. Is coming back to lead the offense. But, like, he wasn't the play caller, right? Yeah, like, so he was with Lane at FAU when Lane called the plays and he was playing at Ole Miss when Link all the plays. I'm assuming for two years at South Florida, he called the plays. Like, I don't know. Yeah, I think. I think their offense could look. Could look quite clunky and this could be close, but I think I'd still pick the team with the deeper level of FBS talent. CFB graphs. By the way, EPA per play projections has Ole Miss by 12 points. So.

[Bill Landis]

Okay.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Fewer than the spread.

[Bill Landis]

Okay.

[Doug Les Maurice]

All right.

[Bill Landis]

I'm nuts. That's fine. Let's go to the quarters. You have this as Bama. Indiana. I have it as Oklahoma. Indiana. The look ahead lines. Indiana is minus eight and a half against Oklahoma, minus six and a half versus Alabama. You have Indiana. Alabama. Who do you have winning?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Indiana. I. Well, we can. We can talk about it when we move to the next round. Like, I do have some questions about the Hoosiers on injury stuff, but I think they can get this done here. I just. I just don't think Alabama is very good. I think they're gonna have to beat Oklahoma because Oklahoma's offense stinks.

[Bill Landis]

But I don't know.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Alabama has not impressed me all year. And Indiana is at the very least the second best team in the country. Maybe the best team in the country. So I'll take the Hoosiers and still have them ready.

[Bill Landis]

I. I don't think. Yeah, they're not gonna have a layoff and then come out flat against a mid SEC team. So I'll take Indiana over Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oregon. We're assuming the Oregon win is a 4 or 5. Texas Tech is favored by a point and a half. How do you see this?

[Doug Les Maurice]

The game I said I was most excited to see when we did our show with Jahan J. Haraja earlier in the week. I'm assuming that Oregon will be healthy. I guess we don't know. But I do think if the Ducks are healthy, that offensive line can maybe do enough to not allow Texas Tech's defensive front to take over the game. And I think Oregon is capable of being decently more explosive on offense than Texas Tech is. So I'll take the Ducks there, assuming health for Oregon.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I'm curious to see this Oregon rushing attack try to control the game. They've battled through a lot. It's a reminder they're mad still and they're, they're. This is the hiding in plain sight team that they were the under only undefeated team a year ago. They were the one seed and they got boat raced by Ohio State in the quarterfinals and then it was. And then they got beat at home by Indiana this year and they kind of got pushed off the radar a little bit and they're kind of just sitting here with a pretty good coach. They are losing both coordinators to head coaching jobs, but they're hanging out. But like we can't pretend that's not a thing. It certainly is a thing to some degree. Good combination of young guys and veterans and transfers. Certainly a capable quarterback in Dante Moore. They have had a ton of receiver injuries, they've had offensive line injuries, but they have a really good run game and they have a really good defense. And if passing game gets healthy, I think we have a chance to see the best version of Oregon that we've seen all year. And Dan Lanning I would imagine is going to have them on a razor's edge because a year ago they went into this thing as the favorite and they didn't even win a game. And so now, okay, now, all right, you beat jmu, nobody cares. What are you going to do now? And even the idea though that they get. They stretch their legs a little bit. I don't want to put too much stock in the, too much stock in the. This team was off. Are they rusty from the buy this team got to play. But this is like Oregon gets to be at home in Austin as a 21 point favorite against JMU. Get the juices flowing, you know, get some maybe guys who were injured, give them a little bit of a run before they put them on the field against Texas Tech and just like remind everybody of maybe what they are while Texas Tech has a bunch of guys who have had a tremendous season but have never really been in here and Oregon was here last year and are mad about it. So this is, this is my don't forget about Oregon warning and I'll take Oregon.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I yeah, I the one thing like you want to talk about the coordinators leaving is like I don't defensively for Oregon. I'm not super concerned about it because it's Dan Lanning's defense. It's not Tosh Lupoise defense. And there's always been, I think, questions about Tosh Lupoi and, you know, his schematic credentials. I suppose very good recruiter could be great at Cal. I have no idea. Don't really care. I think Will Stein, who's going to be the head coach of Kentucky and the OC at Oregon, like, has to be on his game because this Texas Tech defense will smother you if, if you're not. So I don't, I don't want to be entirely dismissive of that. I think it'll, I think it'll be like a really good game. That's why I was excited about it. But I'll, I think there's an emotional edge for Oregon because of how last season ended.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. Okay. Good game.

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[Bill Landis]

Ohio State they are listed as look ahead 7 1/2 point favorites over Texas A&M 9 1/2 point favorites over Miami. We both picked Miami. I do think is interesting. I think it is very reasonable that making the playoff must take your floor into account which is why you don't get to brush away terrible losses. Consistency matters. Being good week after week matters. But then once you get in the playoff I really like you kind of are looking for teams with ceilings which is why Miami is interesting to me because like like with their talent like, what does their best maybe look like even there though? They're a bunch of ding dongs who lost to Louisville and SMU during the year. Right. But also you, SMU is a decent team and that game was very close. And Louisville is on a Thursday night was kind of weird. Right. So they do have some talent. So I will be curious if, if it's them, if anybody, if they look good against Texas. And I will be very curious about the discussion leading into Miami. Ohio State game. Because there was a time early in the year after the Notre Dame win when you looked at the raw talent on Miami's roster, both sides of the line, veteran quarterback, couple explosive guys with the ball in their hands and people were like, yeah, this looks pretty good. I will be curious if that conversation comes back. If we're staring at Ohio State, Miami.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I, I think it will. And then I think you can look at this specific matchup of Miami's defensive line against Ohio State's offensive line. Right. There's two real dudes there for Miami. Reuben Bain Jr. Akeem Mezador. Like both 40 plus pressure kind of guys. And the other thing that they're certainly on my mind that I think would probably come to the forefront as we will discuss that game. Corey Heatherman, the Miami defensive coordinator, was at one time the defensive coordinator at James Madison for Kurt Signetti. I haven't studied Miami. I would, I would imagine like running some of the similar things that gave Ohio State problems in the Big Ten championship game when Ohio State lost to Indiana. So I can see a lot of that being discussed and it's frankly a question that Ohio State has to answer because if it plays the way that it played up front against Indiana, it can lose to Miami. I don't think it will. I think Ryan Day has usually had his team ready to play at its best or pretty darn close to it when it's had a break like this. And I think, I think that's the form that the Buckeyes will be in. So I pick Ohio State to win this game.

[Bill Landis]

Me too. So both take a, take the Buckeyes. But it could be fun. It could be fun to, to talk about this thing and get ready for this thing. And now we've just spent all the time and that'll probably be Texas and Ohio State and be like Georgia, Tulane, Georgia, Tulane.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Tulane.

[Bill Landis]

There's not even a line like they didn't do the look ahead lines for either Tulane or JMU winning. So Georgia would be a five and a half point favorite over Ole Miss a team they beat by a touchdown during the regular season.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Georgia by 15 over two, lane. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Okay. What do they say? Georgia. Ole Miss.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Georgia by three.

[Bill Landis]

Interesting. Okay, I'll take Georgia. You think I will also take.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, I'll take Georgia.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. The fight. Fighting Goldings. Don't have a, don't have a little shot there. I just can't. We already spent too much time on Oklahoma, Alabama. I can't dive into too much into 2 sec mediocre teams playing each other. So we are looking at the same final. No, we're not looking at the same final four. Yeah, we are. You picked Oregon too, right? Yeah, Indiana. Oregon is one semi and Ohio State Georgia as the other semi. These are two good games. And I do think and, and if it was. If it's Texas Tech instead of Oregon, that'll be a good game too. But I think if the, if, if you stare at the first round games and people like why do we have a 12 team playoff? None of these games are any good. Like, you know, it's extra football, it's exciting football. It's teams that have a chance, their fan bases have a chance. I think there's a lot of value in that. But like the Final four is going to be pretty good, I think, right?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, I think so. Yeah. Yeah, I think. Yeah. I mean, I guess you could get a. I don't know. Yeah, I think you will be. You're not going to get an SEC versus SEC game, right?

[Bill Landis]

No.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah. Yeah. So.

[Bill Landis]

So we're gonna have three Big Ten teams in this.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I guess you could wait.

[Bill Landis]

You got intended.

[Doug Les Maurice]

You could get. If A and M gets through. I guess you could, but yeah, that's not gonna happen.

[Bill Landis]

Indiana. Oregon again. We have proof Indiana went on the road and beat Oregon, but is that proof that Indiana is going to beat Oregon this time? And also you talked about injuries. Like losing Stephen Daly up on their defense is a big deal for Indiana, right?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, I think it could be a big deal, you know, in the, in the quarterfinal too. But I, but I, I think it matters here more for me and it's. Indiana just does not have really like a ton of depth anywhere. It's just sort of the nature of the program. They have some depth, but I don't know that they have a like for like replacement for Stephen Daly who had six pressures against Ohio State, is 41 on the year. He's just an integral part of their very overwhelming havoc generating defense and they're going to have to find a way without him. And, and I Think that'll matter here. I kind of think, like, Oregon's going to do to Indiana what Ohio State did to Oregon last year.

[Bill Landis]

Not.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Not win by that margin necessarily, but just sort of like avenger regular season loss in the playoff and. And take it to the national championship. So again, this is backing on Oregon health. I think healthy or healthy Oregon is not being discussed enough. I think you probably feel that way too. It was a great game when they played in Eugene back in. I think it was October. If Indiana were fully healthy, I'd probably pick them to win the rematch, but they're not. And. And daily is really important. So I'll pick Oregon to win this one.

[Bill Landis]

Me too.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Oh, so we're just going to have the same championship game then? Because I know you're not picking Georgia to be the highest state.

[Bill Landis]

What if I was just like people? I got to be true to my football acumen. I just really love the cut of Josh McRae's jib as George's third running back. I can't get away from the dogs. We. We started talking about Angry Oregon after the Big Ten meetings. And we were like, like angry and good. Angry and good is quite a thing. And now like angry and good and kind of getting healthy and sort of overlooked. I know maybe there are some people who have questions about big game Dan Lanning, but maybe like, sneak up on you. Big game Dan Lanning is very intriguing to me, and so I am very intrigued by what Oregon is here. And we're both picking Ohio State to be Georgia.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I am picking Ohio State to be Georgia and avenge it's 2022 Peach bowl loss.

[Bill Landis]

Yes.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

If we get this game, we will spend 17 hours breaking it down before that game. We don't have to do it today. You and I have the same national championship game of Orego Ohio State. Those 25 national people that I referenced, do you know how many of them had an Oregon Ohio State national championship game?

[Doug Les Maurice]

No.

[Bill Landis]

None. A couple people had Oregon in the national championship game, but both people who did hit them against Georgia, so they were going like the whole, like the upset bracket. Right. Like the national championship game is three versus five. Right. So nobody has this. So just to be clear, you might look and think, here they go, Bill and Doug again, picking the same stuff. But we're. We're on an island together, but nobody else is on our island, so that's okay. So you can think that we share a brain, but we're not sharing it with anyone else. So we're still a unique coupling. Here, Bill, that this is not what people are talking about. But I think. And I think this would give us something. And, and because the team who is set up to be last year's Ohio State is Oregon. So it's like sort of last year's Ohio State versus this year's Ohio State, except this year's Ohio State is also last year's Ohio State because they're coming off a loss. And so, I mean, I just. There's. I think there's a lot of good Big Ten drama here. And whether we wind up, if it's Ohio State Indiana or Ohio State Oregon, there is revenge in, in ways across the board here. Because the best teams in the league have played each other the last two years. I think it's going to be a banger. So give me South Florida and a Big Ten championship game. Ohio State versus either of those two teams, we will be super fired up to cover. And if it's Georgia against one of those two teams, I'm not going. So.

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[Bill Landis]

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[Bill Landis]

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[Doug Les Maurice]

What do you think is going to win? Who do you think's gonna win?

[Bill Landis]

I picked Ohio State.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, so did I. It's really honest. It's just like it's the defense, right? Like, I don't think Ohio State will see a better offense the rest of the way than the one they just played against Indiana. And they held them with 13 points on a neutral, not even really neutral. It's like kind of a road game. I just like, I don't. I think Ohio State needs to score three touchdowns in every game and it's going to win. And I just, I just, you know, they, they can't go out with the same plan they had against the Hoosiers, but I don't, I don't think they will. And as long as Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are healthy enough to, to sustain over a three game run, I just really have a really hard time seeing somebody beat Ohio State at its best or if it's Indiana, like beating Ohio State twice. So I'll, yeah, I'll take the Buckeyes.

[Bill Landis]

To repeat points given up by this Ohio state defense this year. 7, 0, 9, 6 3, 16, 10, 10, 9, 9, 13. So I think we, you keep saying, like, who, who can score 20 on the Ohio State defense, right? Like, who can score, like if the Ohio State offense can get to 20, they're in, in pretty darn good shape here. And so that is just quite a thing to lay down. And then you, you know, you even look at, at the Ohio State Indiana game and as we've talked about, they had two drives at the end of the game where they did put together long drives and came away with zero points because of short yardage and field goal and red zone issues. But it's not like their offense was completely snuffed out. So they have some stuff to fix for sure. Like the stuff that's popped up for them pops up against the best teams.

[Doug Les Maurice]

But.

[Bill Landis]

They'Re the favorites. They're plus 195, you know, and I think, I think they're a reasonable pick. Obviously we cover Ohio State, but I, I think they're a, a very reasonable pick. I'm not going to pick an SEC team, not because I don't like the sec, but because I just think those collection of teams continue to be overrated. And so like, like, you know, what if Texas Tech beats Oregon and it's like, okay, like I'm, I will not, I would not make any assumptions about Texas Tech. If they beat Oregon, Texas Tech could beat Indiana and Ohio State when the national championship. I, I would not. I don't find that to be completely fanciful the way that I would find a Georgia national championship to be fanciful.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I will be on the record as saying I don't think the Georgia national championship is fanciful. I think, I think they could win it.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. So, you know, I'm, I, I wish, I wish Georgia, man, I do. I kind of wish Georgia was opposite the Miami Texas A M game because I think, I think that Georgia is going to play the winner of a G6 team and a team whose head coach left and that's who Georgia gets in the first round. It's like, what? Like, for real. I think they did screw it up. I think they did screw it up by not having Texas A&M6 and Ole Miss 7. Even if all things, even if on the chart, it's like for every reason, Ole Miss should be ahead of Texas A and M, but your coach isn't here. We're knocking you down the spot. Like, I, I think that's because there's no way Ole Miss would be five. Right. So it's not like they suffer. They were knocked down from George, from. They would have been ahead of Oregon if Lane Kiffin was here. I don't think that's true. So they're in the exact same spot. They would be. As if their head coach of their entire coaching staff were still here. And people were talking about whether this is going to be like, are they going to be penalized like Florida State and attend the bylaws and all this stuff. They didn't move them at all. So I kind of wish. I kind of wish George was getting more of a game because I don't. I don't think old Mr. Or Tulaner positioned to do anything to the dogs who I think are good but not nearly what they've been and are vulnerable.

[Doug Les Maurice]

So, yeah, yeah, okay. A couple of homers.

[Bill Landis]

I mean, it's one of those things. And, and I called out people last year because last year in the regular season, I picked Oregon to beat Ohio State and Oregon beat Ohio State. And I felt like nobody else who covered Ohio State picked Ohio State to lose that game. It's like, guess what? Ohio State can lose sometimes. I don't know if anybody picked, including us, did anyone pick Ohio State to lose to Indiana? Like, the covers Ohio State. Like, we were all in the bag for the Buckeyes for that thing, weren't we? Nobody was out there with Sig.

[Doug Les Maurice]

No, I don't think so. No.

[Bill Landis]

So. But it is that defensive backbone. The defensive backbone is where it starts. So. But there are other teams with defensive backbones here, too. So if. If Texas Tech shows that, if Texas A M shows that, if Georgia. Not really them anyway, those are our picks. Picked Ohio State. We have a bunch of stuff, more stuff coming here on this feed, on this podcast feed, on this YouTube feed. You can find us on Substack Bill and Doug osu.substack.com and go back and catch our Monday around the Shoe with Shahanje Hiraja. As Bill mentioned, that was a great conversation we had a conversation on Tuesday about the playoff and everybody should shut their holes complaining about the playoff and they haven't. They're still complaining. And then we talked about Sharon Moore on a, on a Thursday show that I think you guys would find interesting and what it means for the Ohio State Michigan rivalry in particular. So anything when we're writing at the substack, right? We're writing stories.

[Doug Les Maurice]

We are. Yeah. Yeah, I wrote it. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. Would you write about. Brian Hartline wrote about the playoff. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. I gotta write stuff. Okay. Thanks to you guys for being here. Always appreciate you. We'll be back soon with more here on this YouTube feed in your podcast feed. For now, he's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Les Maurice. And that was the Bill and Doug show.

[Doug Les Maurice]

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[Bill Landis]

What about toys? Do they have brands kids have been wanting all year? Yep.

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[Bill Landis]

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[Bill Landis]

What a bad so the who answered.

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