← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
College Football Playoff rankings released: Ohio State No. 1; risers and surprises from committee
00:49:09
The College Football Playoff committee released its first rankings of the season on Tuesday, with Ohio State in the No. 1 spot, followed by Indiana, Texas A&M, Alabama and Georgia.
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- [00:02]
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- [00:56]
Bill Landis
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- [01:22]
Bill Landis
Shop gifts from top brands for everyone on your list in the Walmart app. Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. We do College Football Playoff talk every Tuesday and the actual rankings are finally here. Doug Lamoris and Bill Landis. The College Football Playoff committee rankings will be revealed on ESPN or or as some of you who get YouTube TV know it as, the big blank screen on your TV will be revealed at 8:00pm Eastern. It is currently 7:57 Eastern. We are three minutes away, Bill. And so we wanted to predict what we think the committee is going to do with the top 12 this initial week of the rankings. It is like the the second most important one other than the final rankings, which is the only ones that matter. And then we'll do as usual as we've been doing every Tuesday. We'll do our projections what we think the actual final 12 will be at the end of the year. But until they come on the show may as well just do like a Roback ad for like four minutes, right? Oh, these quarter zips.
- [02:28]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. And also just to be clear to people maybe listening, we are reacting live. You are not watching us live. But we are reacting live to the playoff show.
- [02:40]
Bill Landis
Simulated live.
- [02:41]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yes.
- [02:42]
Bill Landis
Right. I was gonna make a joke there. Not gonna make it. Why don't so rollback rho b-k.com oh man. Quarter zips, Polos, Game day gear. Try it. You'll love it, college football fans. It'll become the classiest piece of gear you have in your wardrobe representing your favorite team. And if you use our code, you'll get 20 off your first order. Go to the game day collection at r h O-B-A-K.com bad20 bad20 is the code to get 20 off. Bill we may as well make these are what this is what we think the committee is actually going to do with the top 12 tonight. And we want to reveal this before it happens because we actually think number one Ohio State, who has been number one in the AP poll since beating Texas in week one, is not going to be number one in the committee rankings when they come out in a couple minutes.
- [03:37]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, I think it's going to be Indiana. And you do as well, right?
- [03:41]
Bill Landis
I do as well.
- [03:43]
Doug Lee Maurice
So I guess I'll explain my thinking there and I'll. I'll also share something I dug up that you and I talked about earlier on on Tuesday. So like basically all of the metrics are pretty similar, at least the ones that like that we have access to, right? I know the playoff committee has access to different metrics, but I'm going to assume more or less what they're looking at looks like the stuff that we can access Me like look at like whatever GPA per play, margin, success rate, all that stuff. Whatever, whatever you're using to formulate your power ratings. I think Indiana and Ohio State are pretty close. In fact, I did see an early line today for a Big Ten championship game that had Ohio State favored by three and a half on a neutral site. So that's like not even, but like it's pretty close veri to be a half on the intra site. So then if all those things are like more or less equal, I think basically what it'll come down to is that Indiana has two good wins on the road and Ohio State. One of Ohio State's good wins is at home. And I don't know that it has to be much more than that. And Indiana beat Illinois by a greater margin than Ohio State did. So I think, though, I think. I think the Hoosiers will be one. I'm not going to be surprised if Ohio State's one. I think it's either of those two teams. I don't think A M will be one, but my guess is that it's Indiana.
- [04:51]
Bill Landis
And I've heard some people suggest that maybe Ohio State would be three, that Texas A M would also be ahead of Ohio State. I don't think that'll happen. I think Indiana and Ohio State in some order will be the top two. We're both picking the Hoosiers number one. I just think it's the best win. The win at Oregon that convincingly for Indiana I just think is like the best win that it was that convincing against a team that good on the road. Right. And then strength of record is a metric that the, that the committee in its own way does care about. According to ESPN Strength of Record, Texas A&M is 1, Indiana is 2 and Ohio State is 3. But Texas A and M, their win is at Notre Dame, their good win that was on the road, but it was a one point win that probably shouldn't have been because their game winning touchdown pass like shouldn't have counted because there was an obvious holding penalty on the play. And I think at this point, like Notre Dame, Texas A and M, that's a good win. Notre Dame has two losses. They fought their way back up. They'll probably be in the top 10 here. But Texas has fought its way back up too. And if Texas, which is Ohio State's best win, had four losses right now, instead of being a two loss team, that then after losing to Ohio State did lose to Florida. But it's, it's 14 straight games. It just beat a ranked team in Vandy. Right. Think that if, if there were times when people maybe wanted to diminish that Ohio State win over Texas because of what Texas wasn't doing. I think Texas has helped Ohio State lately in our opinion. Not to the point that they'll be ahead of Indiana, but I think to end any discussion about whether they potentially could be three.
- [06:24]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, I agree. I just like was looking through it. I don't, I don't think when we see these 25 teams, I think the only ranked win that Texas A and M will have will be Notre Dame and Ohio State. I'm thinking we'll have two with Texas and Washington. Washington got into the AP poll this week. Washington will be in the back end of these top 25 which will, which will help Ohio State against Texas A M. Can I give the people what I looked up earlier about, about the undefeated champs?
- [06:49]
Bill Landis
Please do.
- [06:50]
Doug Lee Maurice
Undefeated, reigning national champs in the playoff era, there have been seven over the course of these playoffs at the time of the first playoff rankings coming out. And of those seven, only one of them, or only two of them, excuse me, were ranked number one in the initial playoff rankings. It was Alabama in 2016 and Alabama in 2018. And a few of those teams, Ohio State in 2015. Georgia in 22 and 23 were ranked number one in the AP poll at the time, but were not ranked number one in the playoff rankings. Ohio State in 15 was number one in the AP poll but three in the first playoff rankings. Georgia in 22 was one in the AP poll but three in the initial playoff rankings. And in 23 they were one in the AP poll but two in the playoff rankings. So when you have an undefeated national champ who is more likely to like going to be number one in the AP poll, that has not always been reflected in the first playoff rankings. In fact, it has been reflected less often than it has the other way around.
- [07:53]
Bill Landis
And I think that the thing that people should understand by now is that the AP rankings next week are going to change based off what the committee does. But often maybe they don't understand this because often the discussion is, oh, we should not preseason polls. Oh, the AP poll isn't very good and it influences the committee. It doesn't influence the committee. You just showed it, Bill. It doesn't influence the committee. I don't think the, I don't think the committee spends one second looking at the AP poll. I would not. So for instance, right now Ohio State is getting 114 total first place votes in the AP and coaches poll combined. Indiana is getting 12, Texas A&M is getting 4. The committee doesn't care about that. So you know, as the season goes on, once the committee rankings come out, they start to look more similar. But it's because the AP pollsters I don't want. The AP pollsters are not ding dongs. They are busy, uncompensated individual team beat writers who have to get their ballot in by Sunday at noon. Most of them, I think the vast majority of them are doing the best they can. Are they the best ballots out there? No, but it's because the circumstances make it impossible. Once the committee gives send some guidance, Bill, they take it. And so what you might view as like, oh, the committee's influenced by the ap. No, the AP is influenced by the committee.
- [09:08]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, I think, I think that's been proven over the last few years. We'll see. Like especially I, the thing I didn't look to see was what the discrepancy in first place votes was for those teams because Ohio state in the AP poll I think is 54 first place votes. It would be a heck of a thing for that many people to switch their vote in a way that would have Ohio State not be number one in the AP poll. Next week, even if they're not number one in the in the playoff rankings. But yeah, I think history tells us that that it's the committee that influences the the AP poll, not the other way around.
- [09:39]
Bill Landis
So you gave a good tidbit of information. I don't have any information as usual.
- [09:43]
Doug Lee Maurice
That's all right. That's okay. Do you want to run prediction predictions?
- [09:47]
Bill Landis
I do want to make a little prediction. So, so why don't we give our top 12 that we're going to predict. My predicted top 12 Indiana 1. Ohio State 2. Texas A&M 3. Alabama 4. Georgia 5. Oregon 6. BYU 7. Texas Tech 8. Notre Dame 9. Ole Miss 10. Oklahoma 11. USC 12, which would be eight spots higher than the AP. My, my biggest prediction here in the AP poll, USC is 10, Michigan is 21, Washington is 24 and Iowa is 26. The first team out. I think all four of those Big Ten teams will be at least two spots higher in the committee rankings than they are in the AP poll. I am looking for the committee to have more respect for the middle of the Big Ten then the pollsters have so far. What is your top 12 predicted?
- [10:36]
Doug Lee Maurice
We're getting rankings right now, so I'll give you my real quick 1. Indiana 2. Ohio State, 3A and M 4. Alabama 5. Georgia 6. Ole Miss 7. BYU 8. Oregon 9. Texas Tech, 10 Texas 11 Notre Dame and 12 Oklahoma.
- [10:54]
Bill Landis
And I just would like to reiterate, my TV is a black screen, but you apparently there's information but also it's simulated live. Maybe there's ranking coming up for real right now or maybe there's not.
- [11:06]
Doug Lee Maurice
Well, I just didn't want to miss them as they go, but they're going through them kind of slow. So we have. There's three on the board right now. I'll give them to you as I come out starting from the bottom at 25 and I was interested where this team would be. Tennessee is 25.
- [11:18]
Bill Landis
They shouldn't be in there at all. All right. Tennessee is 11 in the AP poll. No, that's not true. They're 23 in the AP pol committee has Tennessee two spots lower, 24 pit. There you go. Respect the Panthers. Not a sniff in the AP poll. They are 24th by the committee.
- [11:38]
Doug Lee Maurice
23. Washington.
- [11:39]
Bill Landis
Washington. All right, they are one spot higher. So I was wrong there. I said everyone will be at least two spots higher. Washington is 23. They are 24 in the AP. And the whole thing like the past couple weeks, it was like rank Washington. Rank Washington. Rank Washington. They finally Got ranked, but the committee still liked him one spot better.
- [11:56]
Doug Lee Maurice
22. Missouri.
- [11:58]
Bill Landis
Missouri. Missouri is 19 in the AP poll. They are 22 for the committee. So there's a little bit of, what would I call it, crematude for the SEC by the committee.
- [12:09]
Doug Lee Maurice
21 is Michigan.
- [12:11]
Bill Landis
Michigan, which is exactly where Michigan is. Okay, I was wrong there. I thought Michigan might get a little more respect. The loss to Oklahoma, the loss at USC that I, I just think USC has a chance to be pretty highly ranked. So Michigan comes out right in the same spot.
- [12:26]
Doug Lee Maurice
Iowa 20.
- [12:28]
Bill Landis
Oh, there we go. So that one came true. Iowa 26 in the AP poll. They are 26 spots higher. So again, like, like people are saying, rank Iowa, you cowards. Now the. The AP pollsters have been given permission to rank 6 and 2 Iowa by the committee. Now all you'll have to. Iowa has to do is beat Oregon to, like, stay in on Saturday, which.
- [12:51]
Doug Lee Maurice
Was, and this was another reason that I think Indiana would be number one, because I figured the committee would rank Iowa and, and respect Iowa being number 20. 19. USC.
- [13:01]
Bill Landis
Okay, so USC is one spot higher. They are not 12th overall, as I predicted. They are 19th overall. I really thought, I really thought there was maybe some stuff to like about usc. Their, their offensive efficiency numbers are through the roof. They lost on a last second field goal at Illinois. That win over Michigan, I think is really good. And you know, the win at Nebraska just last week is, is a pretty solid win. So like for your two losses to be in the last second field goal to Illinois and at Notre Dame and with the metrics that would tell you that there are parts of USC that are as good as anybody in the country, I really did think they had a chance to be higher.
- [13:37]
Doug Lee Maurice
So this means Oregon has remaining games against number 19, number 20, and number 23, 18, Miami and 17, Georgia Tech.
- [13:46]
Bill Landis
Okay, 18. Miami is the same. Georgia Tech is one spot lower than the AP. There's 16 in the AP. So that's. We're going to talk about it. So when we're done with the actual rankings and analyzing what the committee actually did and what we think of that, we're going to do our continued projection down the line. The ACC is so weird. But one of the things, just because there's. There's. Virginia has no conference losses in the acc and then there are currently five teams with a single conference loss and Miami has two conference losses. They almost have. They have like a less than 1% chance to make the ACC title game. When I think if you wanted to play, who's got the best roster. It would still be Miami, but they have completely thrown it away. And so they could win out, go 10 and two, get nowhere near the ACC title game. But, like, is. Is that going to get in the playoff? Probably not. They've probably already blown it, Bill.
- [14:40]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, it kind of feels like they have blown it. We're stacking some ACC teams here. So last I gave you was Georgia Tech at 17, Vanderbilt is 16.
- [14:49]
Bill Landis
Okay, Vanderbilt is 16. That's one spot lower than the AP. Louisville is 15, one spot lower than the AP.
- [14:57]
Doug Lee Maurice
Virginia is 14.
- [15:00]
Bill Landis
Two spots lower than the apartment.
- [15:02]
Doug Lee Maurice
And then I'm assuming we're done with ACC teams because now we're getting into the Big 12. Utah is 13.
- [15:09]
Bill Landis
Utah is 13. That's four spots higher than the AP. That is good.
- [15:14]
Doug Lee Maurice
That's good for Utah.
- [15:15]
Bill Landis
I thought they're in a similar situation to Miami, though, where they've lost to the two best teams in the Big 12 in BYU and Texas Tech. BYU is undefeated in conference play. Texas Tech has one loss, right, but they play, they play each other this week. But Utah, because it loses the. Has two losses and it loses every tiebreaker to byu. And Texas Tech just needs a lot of help to get to the Big 12 title game. And how could Utah. How could a 10 and two Utah, that doesn't make the Big 12 title game make the playoff? It seems very unlikely.
- [15:50]
Doug Lee Maurice
It seems unlikely. Yeah. They're hoping for. For BYU to stumble this week and then to maybe lose the Cincinnati later in the year. We have both ends of Red river. Oklahoma is 12 and Tex is 11.
- [16:03]
Bill Landis
Oklahoma is one spot lower. Texas is two spots higher than the AP. Okay.
- [16:10]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah.
- [16:12]
Bill Landis
So you were, you were pretty good on Texas there. You had Texas 10. I did not have Texas in my top 12. I kind of whiffed on Texas there.
- [16:19]
Doug Lee Maurice
Arch is playing better, man.
- [16:22]
Bill Landis
He. He is. I mean, it's, it's. You know, I did my rants on Tuesday. You know, if you're watching this, the, the Bill and Doug show, simulated live. What. What kind of content do you want more than simulated live content Live.
- [16:36]
Doug Lee Maurice
Reacting live to information you received at least an hour ago.
- [16:44]
Bill Landis
Starting next week, we're just going to ask you to not watch anything. We actually might be saved tonight, Bill, by the fact that people are screwed by both YouTube TV and Disney. They can't watch it. So we actually, this is. We are living is. I, I feel like there's a decent chunk of fans, especially Big Tens fans, who have said, God, I wish I lived in a world without espn. And now we have it. So here you are and Doug and Bill are filling in the gaps for you.
- [17:09]
Doug Lee Maurice
I'm just asking myself why we just.
- [17:10]
Bill Landis
Didn'T go live.
- [17:13]
Doug Lee Maurice
In simulcast with the playoff show. Maybe, maybe we'll do that from now.
- [17:16]
Bill Landis
We. We don't edit. We don't edit anything. It's not like we're gonna go back and like take out the dumb things that I say. We're just gonna leave them in anyway.
- [17:28]
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- [18:01]
Doug Lee Maurice
We have so we're the top 10. And our pal Ari Wasserman, he wrote a story I was reading before we came on here, predictions for what was going to happen tonight and he said he thought Miami would be ahead of Notre dame. Miami is 18 and Notre Dame comes in at number 10.
- [18:17]
Bill Landis
Okay, almost. Right.
- [18:19]
Doug Lee Maurice
I was curious what the gap between the two would be because they have two losses and Miami won the head to head. But Miami is spiraling and people have short term memories. So I think Notre Dame is just viewed differently.
- [18:32]
Bill Landis
You know, I, I mean I understand like yeah, two, two lost teams. One of them has a head to head win. You should, you should take them. But Miami's two losses are bad. Right. So like what are we. And even like oh, if you.
- [18:43]
Doug Lee Maurice
I don't know. I mean Louisville and SMU on the ACC hunt.
- [18:46]
Bill Landis
But yeah, SMU is not in the top 25. Lewis 15. So. All right, so Notre Dame is 10. That's where they are in the AP as well.
- [18:55]
Doug Lee Maurice
And we have the Oregon Ducks are number nine.
- [18:58]
Bill Landis
Oregon is number nine. That is actually three spots lower than the ap. That's interesting to me.
- [19:06]
Doug Lee Maurice
I think this grouping of Oregon, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, BYU was going to be pretty interesting because I think the top five teams are the top five teams. Indiana, Ohio State, A M, Alabama, Georgia. But what, what order they decided to put Ole Miss, byu, Oregon and Texas Tech in, I thought would be maybe the most interesting thing we see on the show. And Oregon is last among that group.
- [19:27]
Bill Landis
Yeah, because I think there's a lot of hollowness in the old Ms. Resume. But there's not a signature win yet for Oregon. So again, and we're going to talk about this once all the rankings are out, the things you're looking for, cl, you're looking for general consensus about the way the committee is viewing certain teams, maybe certain conferences. But there's no sense in getting wound up about things that are going to take care of themselves. For instance, Indiana, Ohio State. However this shakes out is not worth getting wound up about because either one of them is going to lose and knock themselves out of the Big Ten championship game race or they're going to meet in the Big Ten championship game and figure it out on the field. So this doesn't matter. Oregon is going to have a chance to move up. So maybe they're lower than the ap. They're, they're lower than this grouping. And I think the grouping you said is a good grouping to think about. But as you also said already, they're going to play three ranked teams here at the end of the year and if they win them all, they're gonna jump.
- [20:20]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. And Ole Miss's work is like kind of done. They don't really have anything left that would like give them a boost. I think they just are where they are and teams are going to jump them as long as. Yeah.
- [20:31]
Bill Landis
Until they lose to like a one, a one win team. Until they lose one of 17.
- [20:36]
Doug Lee Maurice
Sure, that's possible. So last I gave you was Oregon at nine, Right. Texas, I'll give you. I got six, seven, eight. So Texas Tech is eight.
- [20:44]
Bill Landis
Okay. That is one higher than the ap.
- [20:49]
Doug Lee Maurice
They're going pretty fast here. BYU is seven.
- [20:51]
Bill Landis
BYU is seven. That is one higher than the ap.
- [20:54]
Doug Lee Maurice
Ole Miss is six too high.
- [20:57]
Bill Landis
One higher than the ap. I think that's wrong. I think that's too much. I think that, I think that's a misfire by the committee.
- [21:02]
Doug Lee Maurice
There we have Georgia at 5.
- [21:06]
Bill Landis
Yep. And I think we're gonna. This is the only suspense now is Ohio state. Indiana.
- [21:10]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. Bama 4A and M3. We're waiting on the top two. Yeah.
- [21:14]
Bill Landis
And now they're gonna do a graphic and they're gonna. I, I kind of think maybe I would have a Reese Davis impersonation, but I'm not, I'm not all the way there. Chat GPT. Do a Reese Davis impersonation.
- [21:27]
Doug Lee Maurice
Oh, Indiana's too.
- [21:29]
Bill Landis
Okay, so they stuck with Ohio State. All right, so the, the top matches the ap. It's one of those things where I've had an issue with the way the AP poll in general has viewed the middle of the Big Ten in the middle of the sec. But when you're going. When you were going through here and we were making these predictions there, like there's just not a ton of wiggle room. So this, the top five are the same committee rankings in ap, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A M, Alabama, Georgia. And then as you said for the ap, it's Oregon, Ole Miss, byu. So Oregon fallen three spots is interesting, but it doesn't matter. So I think I. Because they're going to have a chance to work it out. I think, I think the things that matter more are that the ACC teams are pretty stacked at the bottom. You know that the Virginia is the highest ranked ACC team and at 14, they're two spots lower than they are in the AP poll. That Texas, Texas is getting some respect. That I think that matters. I. Texas is really starting to loom here. Now. Texas is off this week and then has a game at Georgia. They play Texas A M to end the regular season. They have a chance to just wipe themselves completely out of the playoff conversation. If they lose both of those, if they split, they're gonna be a 9 and 3 team. That is going to be a pivot point for how this committee views strength of record versus who you beat versus who you lost to, that kind of thing. And if they, if they win out, they're going to be like five. So like are they going to be in the. Are they gonna be the SEC title game? Because they only.
- [23:02]
Doug Lee Maurice
They go.
- [23:02]
Bill Landis
They would only have one loss in the sec. So like Texas is a team that felt like it was off the radar for a while and is it is as interesting. Texas and Oregon might be the two most interesting teams in the playoff race at this point for who they play and what that will determine.
- [23:18]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, I'm. I was out on Texas. I'm back in. Not back in in the sense of like I think they're in the playoff, like back end. I think like they're very interesting and I will be checking them out the rest of the year to see what happens there because like on the right day they can be Georgia and Texas A and M certainly so. And that really shakes up the SEC race if that happens. We have so the hypothetical matchups based on the rankings a way to run through those.
- [23:40]
Bill Landis
Sure.
- [23:41]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay. Georgia hosting Memphis with the winner playing Alabama. Memphis, which wasn't ranked by the way. Memphis are just projecting as the group of five team.
- [23:54]
Bill Landis
Let's see.
- [23:54]
Doug Lee Maurice
Oh, I guess we didn't mention there's no group of five team ranked or group of 16. So Georgia hosting Memphis with the winner playing Alabama. Texas Tech hosting Oregon with the winner playing Ohio State. Ole Miss hosting Virginia with the winner playing Texas A M. And fun matchup. BYU hosting Notre Dame with the winner playing Indiana.
- [24:18]
Bill Landis
Oh, wow, that would be crazy. I don't like that one where Oregon. Well, it's one of those things where Oregon and Ohio State end up opposite each other, but they didn't play this year. And if there's an Oregon, Ohio State rivalry, then I guess. Good. Bring it on in the playoff. Right?
- [24:33]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. Get them back to the Rose bowl and let's play the rubber match. Yeah.
- [24:37]
Bill Landis
Yeah. Okay. So let's. I'm just trying to run through to see what the biggest changes are by the depth. By far, the biggest jump is Iowa from 26 in the AP to 20 in the committee rankings. So.
- [24:56]
Doug Lee Maurice
Love it.
- [24:57]
Bill Landis
So. And again, it's one of those, like, it doesn't. Well, it does matter, but also so. Or Iowa's either gonna beat Oregon at home on Saturday and be. We're gonna, like, spend the next three weeks talking about, is Iowa gonna make the playoff at 10 and 2, like, this feels like it's gonna happen, or they're gonna lose to Oregon and then, like, that'll be it. They won't be discussed in the playoff race anymore. So that was probably going to happen whether the committee had ranked them at all this week or not. Because if they were the first team out in the committee rankings, just like they are in the ap, if you beat Oregon, that would have jumped them up. Right?
- [25:31]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah.
- [25:31]
Bill Landis
But this. I think the point of this is, is that if they beat Oregon, they now would be potentially on pace. You still have to beat Nebraska. They still have other games that. That 10 and 2 Iowa would be respected by the committee. Like, I think they would be in position to win some battles for a playoff spot if it came down to that, given what the committee has shown, they think of Iowa right now.
- [25:55]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. And I think if you're Oregon. Right. You know that the committee now thinks that Iowa's good. Right. So, like, they're there. If there' national conversation with how good actually is Iowa, the people who make the decisions believe that Iowa is good. Of course, if they were to lose, they'd fall out, but I think that that would still be a win that propels Oregon up the board to pass a team like Ole Miss. Because right now. Or like this, as it stands right now, Oregon would be opening on the road.
- [26:18]
Bill Landis
Right.
- [26:19]
Doug Lee Maurice
So that's actually pretty important for them if they can. If they can swing it and get a, get a home playoff game but Austin maybe even hosting an SEC team, that'd be awesome. I was wondering as like looking at it, we're going to give our projections like if, if they would actually make a ACC champ like go on the road, which I know they did last year. But, but Clemson was like kind of lousy as an ACC champ. You think if there's, if there's a, there's like an 11 win ACC champ, do you think they're gonna make that team open on the road?
- [26:53]
Bill Landis
I mean I think if there's an not if it's Georgia Tech, if it's Virginia and I wanted to talk about this because Virginia kind of in the Indiana spot here this year as the surprise off the radar team they are. We're trying to figure out how much to respect them. They are 5. 0 overall. They are 5 and 1 in the ACC play. They are 81 overall. And again I guess this weird. I don't even know why this is the case and I don't care that much. But they lost NC State. But it was a non conference game.
- [27:22]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yes. I don't know why that was the case, but yes it was because like.
- [27:26]
Bill Landis
That happened with BYU in Arizona last year. But that game was scheduled when those teams were not the same conference. Virginia and NC State have both been in the ACC for like 60 years. How is that a non conference game?
- [27:40]
Doug Lee Maurice
I, I actually, I knew that was the case but never bothered to look into why? Because like you, I don't care that much, but it is. Yeah.
- [27:47]
Bill Landis
So the point is that last year when Indiana at 11 and 1 and everybody in the SEC was saying Indiana shouldn't be in the playoff, they were beating the heck out of people. Right. They were dominating a, maybe a schedule that wasn't quite as good. Virginia is skating by, Virginia is 8 and 1 and three of their wins are in overtime. Two overtimes against Florida State, overtime against Louisville, which is a good win and overtime against North Carolina where North Carolina went for two and fell a yard short. And then they also beat Washington State 22 20. So, so that is the thing. If that's your ACC champ and they finish with Wake Forest, Duke and Virginia Tech, like it feels like they're going to be in the ACC title game. I would not pick them to win that ACC title game against anybody. They would play there. But if they. So I don't think they would get in at 11 and 2 if they lose the ACC title game. And I think if they're the ACC champ, I Absolutely could see them on the road.
- [28:47]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. I think if it's Virginia, I think you're right. If it's Georgia Tech or maybe Louisville, I could see it. That team like get it going up the rankings a little bit. I guess the one thing we did kind of get confirmation on. Right. Is that the ACC is only going to get one team in. Like. Yeah. Just like how's. I don't see any other way around that based off how the teams are stacked up.
- [29:08]
Bill Landis
Whereas the Big 12, with BYU at 7, Texas Tech at 8, and Utah, who lost to both of them at 13, that's some respect for the Big 12. They're going to play in the regular season. Right. Not this week, but next. It's not this week. It is this week.
- [29:25]
Doug Lee Maurice
It's noon, noon on Saturday.
- [29:26]
Bill Landis
So BYU and Texas Tech are going to play this week. They certainly have a chance of rematching in the Big 12 title game. But with the respect that they're both getting here, you are certainly. It feels like maybe setting up the idea. And again, we know Texas Tech already has a loss, but if they split whoever wins this regular season matchup, if they rematch in the Big 12 title game and the opposite team wins, you might be looking at both in.
- [29:47]
Doug Lee Maurice
I think they can both get in. Yeah, I think they're. I think they're both actually positioned pretty well. And like Texas Tech, especially with its schedule, if it's. If it's the winner this week, I think is in a great spot. And then byu, as we mentioned, still has to go play at Cincinnati. But also that game lost a little bit of its luster, I guess, with how Cincinnati played against Utah this week. I still think Cincinnati is good and can beat BYU at home. So BYU's got the tougher road to get to the. The Big 12 title game. But both, I think, in excellent shape to kind of get there. No matter what happens this weekend, I will be curious.
- [30:18]
Bill Landis
I think Ole Miss is too high at 6, but BYU and Texas Tech are both below them. The winner should jump them. Oregon is below them. But what's the schedule that Oregon has if Oregon wins out, Oregon should jump them. If Texas beats Georgia, even though Texas has two losses and Ole Miss has one, I could see Texas jumping them. I don't think Ole Miss is locked into six because I think the committee will look at some other teams that might will be. Somebody's going to be getting some good wins and I don't think they'll stay there. That's probably my dis. My most disappointing thing that they, they do have Ole Miss that high. I thought that was sort of a thing that the pollsters had been puffing that up and I thought maybe the committee wouldn't do that. So. But, but Overall, Iowa's up 6 from the AP. Michigan's the same. Washington's up 1. USC's up up to the fact that Pitt got in at all. I, I think is decent. I think is decent. And this also sets up this situation again. For instance, not only do we have Oregon, Iowa this week, then we have Iowa, USC after that and then Oregon and USC are also going to play. So we're talking about a, a situation there when you have the Oregon, USC and Iowa are ranked 9, 19 and 20 and they're playing a little three way showdown here coming up. So if somebody wins both of Those, if there's a 20 team out of that, they don't all go one and one against each other, then I think that team has a chance to really rise and get respected because I think they're in decent shape right now.
- [31:47]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. And that is, I know Oregon goes to Kinnick, but this is Oregon. I think Oregon hosts usc, right?
- [31:53]
Bill Landis
I think that's right.
- [31:54]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah.
- [31:54]
Bill Landis
Yeah. Because. Because Oregon goes to Washington and I, and I, I'm just glad that Washington's in the top 25. I thought there was room for Washington to be a little higher, but I'm glad they're in there. They should be in there. Tennessee should probably be out, but I'm. There's nothing you. Iowa is by far the biggest mover. Iowa's up six spots from the ap. Utah's up four spots from the ap. The biggest drops, Oregon and Virginia are both at. Missouri are all down three spots from their AP comparison. Is there. Are you like outraged about anything?
- [32:24]
Doug Lee Maurice
No, I'm like, you a little bummed to see Ole Miss get that kind of respect because I'm not sure they deserve it just based off like what their actual resume is. They haven't, they've. They've beaten number 12 Oklahoma. They don't have another ranked win. Right. And they played some nail biters against some pretty bad teams. So. No, I don't think so. I guess I'm, I'm mildly surprised to not see a G6 team ranked because there are a couple of one loss teams that I think maybe could have snuck in on the back there because like Tennessee doesn't deserve to be ranked. I know they're 25th, but like yeah, they have three losses. They haven't beaten a good team that they've lost to the three good teams. They played like their resume is a joke. I don't know why they're ranked at least they're not as high as they are in the AP poll, but they are still 25th.
- [33:07]
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- [33:38]
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- [34:10]
Doug Lee Maurice
Like Iowa. Like Iowa doesn't have a great win, I guess. Like it kicked the crap out of Minnesota and like it beat Penn State obviously. But it feels like Iowa is getting a boost from like good loss, like not getting run off the field by Indiana, almost beating Indiana.
- [34:27]
Bill Landis
Indiana's dominance is like the committee is like, man, Indiana beats everybody by 50. They had to score in the last two minutes to beat beat Iowa. Yeah, that's. And it is one of those. It's like I, I like it. So Ryan Day on Tuesday, the Ohio State coach was, was saying what obviously is true and people asked it three different ways, like, what do you think about the rankings? And he said like I don't care. And it's like of course he doesn't care. Like they, they don't care. But he thinks it's good for college football and he thinks it's fun and he's glad they do it. So I'm happy. I don't know if people have ever watched anything or heard me before. You might be surprised to learn that I'm happy to be outraged when I want to be outraged or when I'm in the mood to be outraged, when I think it's necessary to be outraged. There's nothing that I'm outraged about. And I do just feel a circumstance with just sort of how things have unfolded. My, my main big thing is middle of the Big Ten versus middle of the sec. But I, I think to a certain extent that is going to work itself out. We already saw it a little bit like Texas beating Vanderbilt was already that working itself out a little bit. Oklahoma beating Tennessee was that working itself out in a game where Tennessee had much better stats and probably should have blown Oklahoma off the field and they didn't. Right. But you just like Vanderbilt still has to play Tennessee and Texas still has to play Georgia and Texas. Let's play Texas A and M and there's some of this st is just. Is going to get worked out. And so, you know, I, I think we're ACC is getting one. The Big 12 has a shot at two. But also if they don't thread the needle the right way, they very easily could be getting one. And it's probably, as much as I don't want to admit it, the SEC is probably almost certainly getting four. And probably what's going to happen is it's going to be four from the sec, three from the Big Ten. That's seven. Group of five is eight. Wait, am I doing this right? Yeah, I'm doing this right. Right. Four from the SEC, three from the Big Ten, Notre Dame, that's one. Group of five. That's one. So that's nine. And then you get one from the ACC and one from the Big 12. So that's 11. So what it's probably going to come down to is the last team is probably either the fourth team from the Big Ten or the second team from the Big 12. And that might have more to do with how the Big 12 threads the needle than what happens with Washington, USC, Iowa, Oregon trying to figure this out in the Big Ten. But if the Big 12 falls apart and the Big Ten implodes, then we're looking at 5 sec. But I think. I think the rest is pretty locked in.
- [37:06]
Doug Lee Maurice
I don't think. Yeah, I guess that's one thing we didn't talk about. Right. Because I don't see a pathway to the Big Ten getting more than three. Really? Because either like, like Iowa can run the table and really shoot up and then like Oregon probably won't make it.
- [37:22]
Bill Landis
You, you remain very circumspect about a 10 and 2 Oregon making it where I think a 10 and 2 Oregon would be in a very good spot because of these remaining games. And if they lose to Iowa or lose to USC or lose to Washington, but they beat the other two, I think they could be in a pretty good spot and whereas you, you seem even concerned that they would be like very much trouble against a certain 9 and 3 SEC teams.
- [37:46]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yes, I think so. And, and one other thing that seems apparent here and you can tell me if you disagree. I don't know that Michigan even by beating Ohio State potentially could jump up high enough to get in. There are 21.
- [38:01]
Bill Landis
Yeah, that might be true. Now the thing that also is true is that they throw out the rankings and like contradict themselves. And if they are just super impressed by Michigan beating the number one team in the country, they can just jump Michigan from 17 to eight in a week and they'll just do it. Right.
- [38:21]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, so.
- [38:23]
Bill Landis
So I, I think that remains true. I really. And I do think again like to the Oregon point, Oregon has three ranked games left so they don't have a great win right now because their double overtime win at Penn State. Penn State fell apart. But a 10 and 2 Oregon team would have presumably losses to two playoff teams and two ranked wins. Right. And then some other games where they just beat the. Beat the snot out of people. So I think that could be a pretty good spot.
- [38:55]
Doug Lee Maurice
They're probably. Yeah, I'm probably, I probably shouldn't be too worried about that. Obviously if they have three losses are not going to get in, but they keep it to two, I think they'll be fine.
- [39:04]
Bill Landis
But again, I think for the Big Ten, so the Big Ten as Ohio State at 1, Indiana at 2, Oregon at 9, USC at 19, Iowa at 20, Michigan at 21 and Washington at 23. Right. There had been even in the polls a couple. I was still not ranked in the polls. Washington was only ranked in the polls this week for the first time like that. That just even that scooching up slightly of the Big Ten I think matters a little bit then at least they're like on the committee's minds. I think matters. Yeah. And they're gonna play each other. They're gonna play each other.
- [39:35]
Doug Lee Maurice
Right? No, I think, I think it matters. Clearly the Big Ten in the SEC are the two best leagues, but there was a world where the back end of of the rankings probably, I guess like maybe wouldn't have included like Iowa and Washington. Right. And then I don't know who takes or maybe like Tennessee's higher or I don't know, some crappy three loss SEC team that I'm not thinking of what it would have slid in there or Maybe there's a G16 that takes a Big Ten spot. So there is respect for the Big Ten in a way. That definitely matters. Yeah.
- [40:09]
Bill Landis
All right, so let's do what we've been doing every week here on Tuesday because we've been secretly conditioning you to watch this show on Tuesdays. Bill, do you think the people figured it out? We're like, man, these guys kind of put up the show on Tuesday evening where they talk about the playoff. They've been doing it for eight weeks. Why are they doing that? We gotcha. Hahaha. You're here, aren't you? You're here. But this is what we project is actually going to happen at the end of the year and we, we do move it around from week to week. I'll be curious to go back and see like in which week were we the most correct. And I will not be at all surprised if it's like week two. And then as the season unfolded we got dumber and dumber. So why don't you go ahead and give what you actually think the 12 team playoff will be on Sunday, December 8th or whatever it is.
- [40:59]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay. I have Ohio State one is the Big Ten champ. Texas a M2 as the SEC champ, Indiana three as the Big Ten runner up, Alabama four as the SEC title game loser. Then five, I have Georgia six I have Oregon because I just, I kind of think they're not going to lose again. Texas tech, I have seven as the Big 12 champ. I have Louisville eight as the ACC champ. I'll, I'll keep that as is for now. But seeing what we saw today like that, maybe, maybe the ACC champ's not going to be getting a home game. Ole Miss 9, Notre Dame 10. I have BYU in as a second Big 12 team. So that is Texas Tech winning this week, rematch in the Big 12 title game. And Texas Tech wins there too. But, but BYU is an 11 win team with two losses to Texas Tech.
- [41:56]
Bill Landis
You have BYU losing to Texas Tech twice and getting in.
- [42:00]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yes.
- [42:02]
Bill Landis
Okay. Now one of the things that would matter there, and you did this before the rankings, is that they respect Utah so much. That's a good win over Utah for byu. Yeah.
- [42:11]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay. And that's, I just, I don't think they're gonna leave out any 11 win power conference team. Unless I guess there are too many to in that case. But I don't think, I don't think that's the situation we'll be in. And then Memphis 12 as the American Athletic Conference champ.
- [42:28]
Bill Landis
Okay, so that's Louisville. You jumped on the Louisville bandwagon.
- [42:35]
Doug Lee Maurice
I'm not like you're robbing.
- [42:36]
Bill Landis
You're Brahmin.
- [42:38]
Doug Lee Maurice
You Could. Yeah, but also, like, spin the wheel. I don't. I don't know who's gonna win the acc. I have no idea.
- [42:43]
Bill Landis
So I did. I actually, I checked. I wrote it down. This was somebody's odds. I don't know. What was I looking at? Oh, like SP plus something on ESPN.com odds to win the ACC championship. Ready? Virginia, 30.9. Georgia Tech, 21.5. Louisville 18.7. Duke 16.2. SMU 7.3. PIT 3.8. Miami, 1.3. So that is like Miami, like, throwing themselves off the 18th story with a talented roster and ruining their season. Just like, even them making it. Virginia, according to another thing I saw, Virginia has a 75 chance to make the ACC title game, which is a pretty good spot. Georgia Tech, 53% chance to make it. Louisville, 31 chance to make it. It. So, but the problem is, it's like, I just. Obviously, Virginia's been vulnerable, but they have three very winning, winnable games. But also, like, they've been vulnerable. They almost lost a freaking Bill Belichick. Right. They could lose to anybody. So Wake Forest.
- [43:48]
Doug Lee Maurice
They're gonna drop. They're gonna drop. They're gonna drop.
- [43:50]
Bill Landis
Yeah.
- [43:50]
Doug Lee Maurice
Duke can beat them, too.
- [43:51]
Bill Landis
Yeah, but, like, Louisville kind of need that, right? Like, that's what Louisville is kind of hoping for. So I will say, I am not off the Georgia Tech bandwagon. Even though Georgia Tech lost on Saturday. I'm Ohio State 1, Texas A&M 2, Indiana 3, Alabama 4. Just like you. I just, I. I wish I could find other things to do than put Alabama four, but I can't. I can't find.
- [44:15]
Doug Lee Maurice
Texas can still get there, right? Texas.
- [44:19]
Bill Landis
I got. I got the longhorns coming for you. And Doug, here we have the Limu emu in its natural habitat, helping people customize insurance and save hundreds with Liberty Mutual. Fascinating. It's accompanied by his natural ally, Doug. Uh, limu is that guy with the binoculars watching us.
- [44:44]
Doug Lee Maurice
Cut the camera.
- [44:44]
Bill Landis
They see us. Only pay for what you need@libertymutual.com Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty Savings Ferry Unwritten by Liberty Mutual Insurance Company and affiliates Excludes Massachusetts.
- [44:54]
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- [45:26]
Bill Landis
I have Georgia Tech 5 because this to me is Georgia Tech. Now as the ACC champ that beats Georgia in the last, last game of the regular season.
- [45:34]
Doug Lee Maurice
Right? Yeah, that happens. Yeah.
- [45:37]
Bill Landis
Yeah. That's propulsive. So Georgia Tech has one loss. So I'm predicting Georgia Tech to win out. This is 12 and one Georgia Tech that wins a rivalry game with Georgia in the last game of the regular season and then wins the ACC championship game. That's a five seed.
- [45:52]
Doug Lee Maurice
So I don't think Louisville beating Kentucky at the end of the year would be propulsive.
- [45:56]
Bill Landis
It's the bourbon barrel. Is that what it is? Is it a bourbon bucket?
- [45:59]
Doug Lee Maurice
It probably.
- [46:04]
Bill Landis
So that's why I have Georgia Tech 5. I have Texas Tech 6 as the Big 12 champ. I, for whatever reason, I'm just like not coming around on BYU and I'm not sure it makes sense, but I still don't have them in. So I apologize for that. Okay. Georgia Tech 5, Texas Tech 6. Notre Tech. No. Notre Dame. Damien's Lady. Our, Our Tech. If it was just Notre Tech. Yeah. Notre A M. Our A M. I have Notre Dame and then I have Ole Miss. I don't want it, but I can't ignore reality. I don't want it. It's the last thing I want. But I have ole miss at 8, Washington 9, Oregon 10. This is Oregon finishing 10 and 2 with a loss to Washington the last game of the regular season. Washington finishing 10, two and both Big Ten teams making it. And then I have Texas 11, Texas 11 and South Florida 12 as the Group of Five team. So in this scenario I have four SEC teams, four Big Ten teams, and one each from the ACC and Big 12. So that's how I, how I do that. And again like this is Texas Tech with a win over Georgia. I don't know. It's probably actually in my scenario that they're this low and that Tech, it's not a win over Texas A M. So that's nine and three Texas. But like the winner at Georgia being propulsive enough for them to like they get in at 9 and 3, maybe even ahead of some 10 and 2 or 11 and 1 teams. Right. That like. Yeah, 11 and 2. That like they're 9 and 3. They're 9 and 3. They have a win at Georgia. They lost to Texas AM and Ohio State who are the top two seeds in the, in the playoff. Right. So you're going to hold that against a three loss team that has A couple good wins. Like, that's. That's the. And just for whatever reason, I'm just. Texas does not disgust me to the level that every other SEC team does.
- [47:55]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, I feel the same way about Texas. Yeah. I just. I think it's just because they haven't been there long enough to get the stink on them.
- [48:01]
Bill Landis
Yeah. So. But. But I think, like, good. Good for the Big 12, bad for the ACC. I think these rankings.
- [48:07]
Doug Lee Maurice
It's a bad day for the sec. For the acc.
- [48:09]
Bill Landis
Yeah, but they knew that. They knew that the minute the Georgia Tech, Miami lost, they're like, oh, God, this is not good. And then Dabo, did Clemson lose last week?
- [48:19]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yes. And then David was, like, yelling at his players, and they were making faces.
- [48:22]
Bill Landis
At him, and he was, like, talking about how he needs to listen to his instincts more or whatever, and it was like, I don't know, man, because feels like your instincts have kind of been for turds for, like, four years, so. Whatever, bro.
- [48:37]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah.
- [48:39]
Bill Landis
Three and five to Duke.
- [48:41]
Doug Lee Maurice
They play. Oh, this is funny. I think they were talking about this on the COVID 3 podcast. So, like, there was all this hoopla in the off season about Clemson and Florida State and TV rights and them getting more money because they're the big dogs in the acc. Their next game, they play each other, and the ACC put that game on the ACC network.
- [49:03]
Bill Landis
They are. Florida State and Clemson are a combined 7 and 9. They are 3 and 8 in ACC play. Let us out. Let us out of the ACC. We want to be free. Oh, my God, how embarrassed. My instincts. We should. And also, Bill Belichick is 1 in 3 in the ACC and is 3 and 5 overall. Man, the bottle. What is happening? Okay, go pit Pitt. Louisville. That'd be. That'd be fun. And I do like Georgia Tech. I like Haynes King. I can't help it. Georgia Tech. Yeah, I think they.
- [49:44]
Doug Lee Maurice
Oh, oh, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame. Just. Just run the table.
- [49:49]
Bill Landis
Like, again, talking about, like, teams that, like, the most interesting finishes to the schedule in terms of, like, what really, Matt. Like, what matters for the playoff, not just for themselves, but for everybody else pits up there, too. So.
- [50:01]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, like, they only have three games left. They're off this week. Then they host Notre Dame at Georgia Tech and host Miami.
- [50:09]
Bill Landis
And I think that that game for Notre Dame, I mean, unless you think Navy's gonna do it, is probably the. The most likely loss for Notre Dame, and that's a spot. Pitt has a chance to create an extra playoff spot. Because I think this other thing these rankings tell us, where was Notre Dame? Were they 10, 10? Like, they're good. I don't think they're gonna go down. So I think, like, if they went out there in. If there was. Not that. Not that. I think anyone had much doubt about that coming into tonight. Whether you like that or not, that feels like where it is. So someone's got to beat him or Notre Dame's in the playoff, and who's going to beat him? Maybe Mason Heitchel.
- [50:44]
Doug Lee Maurice
There you go. Yeah, I thought we. I think a couple weeks ago, we had a conversation about Notre Dame and if they could find themselves in an uncomfortable position relative to Miami for a playoff spot, but clearly that's not going to happen. So, yeah, I think as long as they win, they're in.
- [50:59]
Bill Landis
Because it's interesting, because it's like, well, your resume is lessened by Miami's second loss, but also, Miami's second loss has now put a team that beat you eight spots behind you. So it's like, okay, less than the resume all you want. Like, we kind of wiped away a competitor there. So Notre Dame's. Notre Dame's in good position until. Until they get to face the mighty Pit Panthers. All right, so maybe we'll do this. You're thinking we should do this live?
- [51:25]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah, maybe we'll just do a live next week as the show is happening.
- [51:27]
Bill Landis
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's true. Maybe. Maybe this carriage dispute will be over by then and I will be able to turn my TV on.
- [51:38]
Doug Lee Maurice
I really thought Monday Night Football was going to get us there. I guess I was wrong.
- [51:42]
Bill Landis
And then I really thought, like, Kirk Herbstreet, Reese Davis, and whoever else they threw up there sitting around a coffee table chopping it up about things that actually don't matter would get us there. And that didn't happen either. So, anyway. All right, this was better anyway. You guys don't need that. Keep it going. YouTube TV Drive. Folks, to the Bill of Doug show. This is the greatest thing that ever happened to us. We don't have any carriage disputes. Look at us. We get along with YouTube.
- [52:08]
Grainger Announcer
Great.
- [52:09]
Bill Landis
Look how good we're getting along with YouTube. They barely know we exist, and we put a show up there. I don't know, Joe. I could do it. I could do a dance if you want. Okay, that'll do it. Thanks, you guys, for being here. We'll do it every Tuesday. We'll chop it up, see what's what. Talk about the playoff. Give our predictions, like, subscribe, tell a friend about the Bill and Doug show. Wednesday on Substack. On our Ohio State substack Bill and Doug osu.substack.com We'll be re ranking our 22 Top 22 Buckeyes of the season so far. Talking about the Heisman race a little bit. Doing a little what you're watching, what you eating, what you're thinking. Ohio State Purdue picks on Thursday on this feed, podcast and YouTube national picks on this feed, podcast and YouTube on Friday. For now, he's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Lee Maurice and that was the Bill and Doug Show.
- [53:06]
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The holidays mean more travel, more shopping, more time online and more personal info in more places that could expose you more to identity theft. But LifeLock monitors millions of data points per second. If your identity is stolen, our US Based restoration specialists will fix it, guaranteed or your money back. Don't face drained accounts, fraudulent loans or financial losses alone. Get more holiday fun and less Holiday worry with LifeLock. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit LifeLock.com SpecialOffer terms apply.