College Football Playoff Rankings: Which teams could be knocked from playoff spots in rivalry week?

Summary

The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk

Episode: College Football Playoff Rankings: Which teams could be knocked from playoff spots in rivalry week?
Date: November 26, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis
Podcast Network: Blue Wire

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Overview

In this episode, Doug and Bill break down the newly released College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings going into Rivalry Week. They discuss which teams have the most at stake, how upsets might impact the playoff picture, and offer their own projected playoff fields. Their trademark blend of analysis and good-natured sarcasm keeps things lively as they dissect potential chaos scenarios and contemplate the implications for Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and the many teams on the playoff bubble.

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Main Themes & Episode Purpose

• CFP Rankings Reaction: Real-time discussion of the latest CFP rankings and what it means for playoff contenders.
• Rivalry Week Outlook: Which games could produce big upsets and shake up the playoff field.
• Chaos Scenarios: Outlining how certain results could dramatically alter the postseason landscape.
• Prognostication: Doug and Bill offer their own predicted playoff rankings based on anticipated upsets.
• Fun with Fans: Reminding listeners that the heart of CFB is unpredictability and chaos, and inviting fans to embrace it.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Gripes with TV Scheduling & ESPN (00:24–02:18)

• The hosts vent about ESPN forcing the playoff rankings reveal between "meaningless" college basketball games, poking fun at broadcast priorities.
  • Doug: “If I go to the wrong place, it’s going to be watching the last 90 seconds of a meaningless December November college basketball game that takes 24 minutes. This is hell on earth.” (00:28)
• ESPN’s “power” to shape fan experiences is critiqued in a lighthearted rant.

CFP Rankings & Bubble Teams (02:18–10:47)

• Rivalry Week: The unique number of close spreads (Alabama-Auburn, Georgia-Georgia Tech, Oregon-Washington, Ohio State-Michigan) sets up for potential chaos.
  • Doug: “To me, it’s proof of Alabama midness… There are just enough games like that this week… certainly could be Ohio State Michigan.”
• Doug lists unbeaten, one-loss, and two-loss Power 4 teams, noting the interplay between head-to-head tiebreakers and CFP rankings—especially in the American Athletic Conference.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill: “I think we’ve been saving up all the energy for this last week and we’re gonna get... there is a pathway... for this to get quite chaotic.” (04:08)
• Doug: “There are three undefeated power conference teams as it stands right now: Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M. Five one-loss teams… nine two-loss teams.” (04:49)

Conference Championship & Playoff Math (10:47–18:52)

Big 12, ACC & Waiting-on-Chaos Squads

• Miami, Utah, Vanderbilt identified as "waiting for chaos"—teams not in control, needing multiple results to go their way.
  • Doug: “Miami, Utah and Vanderbilt are probably not going to be in conference championship games, but are going to sit there potentially at 10 and 2 and hope…”
• Lane Kiffin’s future and mid-season coaching moves’ impacts discussed, comparing Ole Miss' instability to North Texas' situation with their coach leaving for Oklahoma State.

Notable Quotes:

• Bill: (On Lane Kiffin) “I don’t… It’s not having your head coach a reason to leave a team out of the playoff?” (11:08)
• Doug: (Satirical) “I didn’t hear any stories about going to yoga with Eric Morris or… his agent held up any teams at gunpoint for more money. So what Lane Kiffin is doing right now, it doesn’t have to be this way.” (11:20)

Playoff Rankings Top 12 & Bracketology (14:18–17:49)

• Top 5 CFP Teams:
  1. Ohio State
  2. Indiana
  3. Texas A&M
  4. Georgia
  5. Texas Tech
• Doug draws possible bracket matchups, gets excited about Oklahoma-Notre Dame and Oregon-Texas A&M, and notes Oregon’s moved to #3 in betting odds.
  • Doug: “Oklahoma-Notre Dame would be a cool first round game. Alabama Ole Miss … I couldn’t give two squats about that game. But that SEC showdown would then play Indiana. That’s cool.” (14:18)

Pac-12 Chaos Potential

• If Washington, previously stung by a loss to Wisconsin, beats Oregon, it could shake up the bracket but probably not be enough for a playoff bid. Oregon, with one or two losses, could still compare favorably to other at-large contenders.

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Key Games to Watch & Surprising Spreads (18:52–27:00)

• ACC: Miami at PIT, Virginia Tech at Virginia, SMU at Cal—all have major championship implications.
• Big 12: Central Florida at BYU, Texas Tech at West Virginia—heavy favorites, but upsets possible.
• Big Ten: Ohio State at Michigan, Oregon at Washington—both double-digit spreads but potential for rivalry shockers.
• SEC:
  • Texas A&M at Texas (A&M favored by 2.5)
  • Alabama at Auburn (Bama favored by 5.5)
  • Georgia at Georgia Tech (favored by 13.5)
  • Ole Miss at Mississippi State (Egg Bowl; Ole Miss favored by 7.5)
• Doug: “With those four SEC games, Bill... I think something’s going to happen in there.” (26:56)
• Chaos in the SEC could have massive trickle-down effects for playoff at-larges.

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Projected Playoff Fields (Predictions) (28:11–35:25)

Bill’s Predicted Field:

• Assumes: Georgia beats Georgia Tech, Bama loses to Auburn, A&M loses to Texas, Ole Miss loses Egg Bowl.
• Projected Top 6:
  1. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
  2. Georgia (SEC champ)
  3. Indiana (Big Ten runner-up)
  4. Texas A&M (SEC)
  5. Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
  6. Oregon
• Oklahoma, Notre Dame, BYU, Miami, Virginia, North Texas round out the field.

Doug’s Predicted Field:

• Ohio State at #1, Texas A&M as undefeated SEC champ at #2; Indiana #3, Texas Tech #4, Oregon #5, Georgia #6, followed by Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, BYU, Pitt, Tulane.
• Doug (on the process): “I did a bad job on the show. I’m all over the place... I just wanted to get Nard Dog to Athens.” (35:06)

Fun with First-Round Matchups

• Bill loves Doug’s notional “Nard Dog going up against the dogs [Georgia],” and a potential “classic Notre Dame-Oklahoma.” Both highlight how chaos would produce fresh, interesting games.

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Memorable Moments & Banter

• Extended, tongue-in-cheek debate about the merits and drawbacks of watching Rivalry Week during Thanksgiving break:
  • Doug: “Can you imagine if we could just all invest every ounce of our energy into Rivalry Week like it was a normal week?” (37:50)
  • Bill: “Friday schedule is pretty sweet... having Thanksgiving and just sitting on your couch while you’re still in your tryptophan coma...” (39:03)
• Running joke about “robust quarter zip and hoodie surveys” at Thanksgiving tables to sneakily collect holiday gift data (28:11).
• Recurring theme: rooting for the most fun, chaotic outcomes rather than straightforward “chalk” playoff advancement.

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Notable Quotes

• “I think we’ve been saving up all the energy for this last week and we’re gonna get... there is a pathway... for this to get quite chaotic.” – Bill (04:08)
• “There are three undefeated power conference teams... Five one-loss teams… nine two-loss teams.” – Doug (04:49)
• “To me, it’s proof of Alabama midness…” – Doug (02:55)
• “It would be a heck of a thing to lose the Iron Bowl to an interim coach when you’re on the precipice of making the playoff.” – Bill (22:59)
• “What we’re really projecting is some chaos, because we could have just gone chalk... and that’s not what we’re saying.” – Doug (34:47)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:24–02:18 – Opening banter, complaints about basketball interruptions and ESPN
• 02:18–06:13 – First breakdown of rivalries and potential upsets
• 10:47–13:11 – In-depth on “waiting-for-chaos” teams (Miami, Utah, Vanderbilt), coaching drama
• 14:18–18:52 – Full breakdown of the top 5 CFP teams and possible playoff bracket matchups
• 18:52–27:00 – Rundown of key rivalry/games and what’s at stake
• 28:11–35:25 – Hosts make their wild, chaos-fueled playoff predictions and discuss the best hypothetical matchups
• 37:50–39:25 – Rivalry Week, Thanksgiving, and why this week is so unique for fans

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Tone & Style

• Sarcastic, irreverent, and passionate—Doug and Bill riff on the absurdities and awesome potential of college football's chaos.
• Deeply engaged with game details, but always including fans in the fun: “Let’s give the people what they want.”
• Strong Midwest-centric (read: anti-Southern CFB bias) stance.

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Summary

This episode captures why college football is beloved for its unpredictability. Doug and Bill, blending sharp analysis and humor, walk through this week’s CFP rankings and build-out what might happen if Rivalry Week goes haywire.
They stress that after a quiet previous week, fans should brace for some shocks—and the playoff picture is anything but settled. The hosts’ predicted fields for the playoff are loaded with “what if” outcomes, acknowledging just how many teams are one upset away from the playoff or heartbreak.

Ultimately: If you love drama, rivalry, and the stakes of college football, this is the week to watch, and this episode is the perfect, fan-first preview.

Transcript

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[Doug]

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[Bill]

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[Doug]

Sustain Pro Triple action dry eye relief. Left side Johnson back. Top of the key to Smith. Vanderbilt 14 drives inside left hand layup. Notre Dame number eight. My God. Doug Layme racing Bill Landis off the Doug and Bill. The Bill and Doug Show. When I. When this is all over for me, if I go to the wrong place, it's going to be watching the last 90 seconds of. Of a meaningless December November college basketball game that takes 24 minutes. This is hell on earth. Dear Lord, why are we squeezing this in? Nobody cares. If you're a college basketball fan, I apologize, but that sucked.

[Bill]

That was. That was 48 minutes to play. 11 minutes is what that was.

[Doug]

I feel sick. Who is this for? Who is it for? It's for no one. It's in a. It's in a high school gym on an island in the middle of an ocean that. No, we're here to do the College Football playoff ranks. It's so stupid. God, take. Take ESPN off my TV again. Just take. But I want to. It's like, it's almost like we had the genie lamp with ESPN. It was like, I don't want ESPN to exist. And YouTube TV was like, poof. And ESPN vanished for half the people. But they still have power, right? So you need. You don't just need them to disappear as a content provider, you need their power to disappear. So they still control jamming the playoff rankings in between college basketball games, but, God, I don't miss them. Oh, my God.

[Bill]

We could have. We could have just got all 25 teams during a full time out, right?

[Doug]

Yes.

[Bill]

Give me the full minute. We'll get 25 teams on the board and they keep playing your dumb game.

[Doug]

So this is the College Football Playoff rankings that are out tonight. This is rivalry week. We have a. We are going to talk about some games here that we think could affect the playoff rankings. Like what are the things that actually could happen? There's. There's a couple games coming up, Bill, and we'll have our national picks out on Thursday morning on Thanksgiving morning. So people not. Don't watch them or listen to them on Thanksgiving. Be with your Friends and family and eat turkey, but they're there when you're done. Sometimes people go to movies on Thursday nights. If you want to listen to a podcast or watch a YouTube show on Thursday night, we'll have our national picks.

[Bill]

How do we get our show Friday? Sometimes you can do that, like special event, get your stuff on, shown in the movie.

[Doug]

We'd have to give up all the money that we have. Yeah, so. So anyway, we'll have the national picks and we'll. We'll make our picks for those games. But Bill, there's just some weird stuff like Bama. Auburn is a five and a half point game with a fired coach and a team that everybody thinks is supposed to be good. To me, it's proof of Alabama midness. But there are just enough games like that this week. Whether it's Texas A M, Texas, whether it's Oklahoma, lsu, whether it's Georgia, Georgia Tech. It's not going to be Indiana. Purdue could be Oregon, Washington, which is, I think, less than a touchdown spread. Certainly could be Ohio State, Michigan, given how that has gone. And that, I think is a 10 and a half point spread as it stands. So we're going to get the rankings here tonight, Bill.

[Bill]

Miami pit, right? Is a Miami pit.

[Doug]

Miami pit. Miami Pit. Like, like, could Cal do something to SMU to shake up that ACC race a little bit? We didn't have any, really any upsets this past week. Like pit over Georgia Tech, I guess will qualify, but that wasn't out of nowhere and you picked it, for instance. But I feel like there's still. Are they, are they floating out there? Or is this just going to be one of those years, Bill, where, like, we don't really get many upsets and we're going to end up with like playoff chalk for the last three weeks of the year?

[Bill]

No, I'm kind of, I'm kind of thinking we get them this week. So you're right. There were everyone in the top 14, either one or didn't play. And then 15, 15, USC lost to Oregon. 16, Georgia Tech lost the Pit, and then some teams. We're going to get a reshuffled bottom of the bracket because a bunch of teams in the bottom lost again this past week. But no, I, I think, I think we've been saving up all the energy for this last week and we're gonna get. I mean, I said to you before we started recording, like, there, there is a pathway and it does not require a lot of, like, there's no way that's going to happen. Typ really, really doesn't require any for this to get quite chaotic. I don't know if it's going to get all the way there, but I think we're going to get a couple of games that shake this thing up.

[Doug]

Yeah. And that's just I think like generally good for the sport probably right. It's not good if your team's getting upset, but it's good for the sport. There are three undefeated power conference teams as it stands right now. Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A and m. There are five one loss teams in the P4 Texas Tech, BYU, Oregon, Georgia and Ole Miss. And there are nine two loss teams. Virginia, Georgia Tech, Miami, Utah, Michigan, Notre Dame, Alabama, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. And I think this weekend the only teams of those that are, there's two games where they're playing each other. It's one lost George's playing, two lost Georgia Tech. And then obviously undefeated Ohio State is playing two loss Michigan. Texas A and M's playing Texas, but Texas has three losses. Let's get to some of the rankings. Arizona is 25, lanes 24. And this matters if people care about the American race. And it's still interesting that one of the tiebreakers like the first tiebreaker, so the first tiebreaker for everybody and stuff is head to head I think in the American. The next tiebreaker is college football playoff ranking. So the fact that Tulane looks like the highest ranked American team actually could matter because that right now is a three way tie between Navy, Tulane and North Texas and all Navy is an underdog at Memphis this week, but North Texas and Tulane are favored by quite a bit. So like it just matters for the American where that's going. I missed the rankings time.

[Bill]

Sorry, I got you. Arizona State is 20, Virginia is 19, USC is 18 and Texas is 17.

[Doug]

Okay, all right. And I like the box at the bottom of the stuff is shuffling.

[Bill]

So sorry I missed the team. Virginia is 18, USC is 17 and Texas is 16.

[Doug]

And and just for the bottom it was Arizona 25, Chilean 24, Georgia Tech 23, pit 22, SMU 21. So the three teams that are in the ACC race, well not the three that are but like they're all right around each other because Virginia is 18 and then we just said SMU and, and Pitt and Georgia Tech are right around there.

[Bill]

People just worry. It's very interesting that because. So Virginia and SMU are winning in for the ACC title game. Yes. In Miami, which obviously would not get there if that were the case. Is ranked. I don't know, we'll see close to 10 spots ahead of both of them.

[Doug]

Yeah, I mean, it's just weird because Miami is. Miami is not going to make the ACC championship game unless there's just absolute utter chaos. Chaos because. Because what we're looking at for the ACC championship game is, as you said, Virginia and SMU are in and win. Virginia is home and favored by nine and a half against Virginia Tech. SMU is at Cal and favored by 13 and a half. PIT is at home as a six and a half point underdog against Miami. So if Virginia or SMU lose, then a PIT win gets PIT in. But I guess I don't actually know the answer of if Miami beats pit. Is there a tiebreaker? Then they could get into some stuff. But we don't cover the ACC that much.

[Bill]

There are on that. Yeah, there are a lot. I was looking at the ACC. They put out their tiebreakers and aside from SMU, VA and PIT, it was just a lot to sort through. So I didn't write it down.

[Doug]

We only have so much.

[Bill]

There is a pathway. Duke is somehow. Duke is still alive. Don't know how.

[Doug]

Oh, for real. We're covering the Ohio State Michigan game this week, which we're excited to be doing over on our substack. Bill and Doug osu.substack.com if you want to try it out, you can put that in and do a backslash the game special and you'll get a free trial up until the day before. The Big Ten championship game in. Michigan is checking in at 15th here in the ratings, up three spots from last week. It's pretty good, so. But that matches the a. They were 15th in the AP poll too, so Vanderbilt 14. Vanderbilt's still at the edge of this. They have a chance for a good win over Tennessee this week. Like not a ranked win, but a good win. But I think like, Vanderbilt's lurking. If we get super chaotic, Vanderbilt's one of the teams that could squeeze into that last playoff spot.

[Bill]

Yeah, they're hovering there. Michigan obviously hovering there with a chance to get a major win. I don't know. It's feeling less and less. I mean, like Utah or. Yeah, Utah doesn't have a path. Or more and more. Like Utah doesn't have a path.

[Doug]

But.

[Bill]

They'Re lingering as well. BYU 11. So that's a. They get a nice win and they don't move.

[Doug]

So Utah is 13. BYU is 12. Texas Tech and BYU are both seven and one. No, Miami's 12. Sorry, where's BYU?

[Bill]

BYU's 11.

[Doug]

BYU's 11. Okay. Texas Tech and BYU are both 7 and 1 in the Big 12. They are in. If they win, BYU is home against Central Florida, favored by 17 and a half. Texas Tech is at West Virginia, favored by 23 and a half. So they are winning in Utah's only path to get in the Big 12 championship game is to beat Kansas, have BYU and Arizona State both win and have Texas Tech lose to West Virginia. So if Texas Tech doesn't lose to West Virginia, which would be one of the biggest upsets of the season, Utah doesn't have a shot at it of getting into the conference championship game. And they did have a miracle comeback last week. So they're one spot like this is the Miami, Utah, Vanderbilt group is the waiting for chaos group. Right. Because like BYU would be in control of its own destiny if BYU wins out, they're in the playoff. Miami, Utah and Vanderbilt are probably not going to be in conference championship games, but are going to sit there potentially at 10 and 2 and hope could we get in as an at large team at 10 and 2. And they're going to need something like Bama losing to Auburn to get to 9 and 3, Oklahoma losing to LSU for a third loss to create an opportunity for at large spots for Miami, Utah or Vanderbilt. But Bill, if you're, we're saying we're anticipating some chaos, these are the teams that are going to be the beneficiary of it.

[Bill]

Yeah, I would, I would even lump like Ole Miss without like great wins into that. If ole miss is 10 and two, I don't know that they'd be feeling super comfy. Plus the whole thing going on with Lane Kiffin too. Like, I don't. It's not having your head coach a reason to leave a team out of the playoff. They, they don't put you in if your quarterbacks hurt. Do they put you in if you're, if your coach isn't working?

[Doug]

I mean it's certainly been a discussion point. And by the way, North Texas, which is on track to make the American championship game and then if they win that be a playoff team, their coach just got hired as the head coach at Oklahoma State. Eric Morris is going to stay with North Texas through the season and through the playoff potentially. And I didn't hear any stories about going to yoga with Eric Morris or. I didn't hear that. I'm not sure that he, his agent held up any teams at gunpoint for more money. So it is possible. I, I do think the structure of this is weird. And college football can work on this to make this operate in a different way rather than trying to hi, hire coaches while the most important parts of the season are still going on. Except North Texas and Oklahoma State just did it and it was fine. So what Lane Kiffin is doing right now, it doesn't have to be this way.

[Bill]

Yeah, clearly they did. They jumped Oregon. Oregon 6, Ole Miss 7, Oklahoma 8, Notre Dame 9, Alabama 10. I think I said last week that I figured Oregon would eventually jump Ole Miss by beating USC and Washington, but I guess we didn't need for the Washington win to happen. Oregon's ahead of them already.

[Doug]

Okay, and so Notre Dame is nine. And where was Miami?

[Bill]

Again, it's interesting. Miami's 12, so there's. They moved. They. Miami. Last week Miami was behind Utah. They both won, but Utah was dorking around with Kansas State and Miami just blew out a Virginia Tech team that doesn't have a head coach and Miami jumped Utah.

[Doug]

Okay, so Miami is like closing the gap on Notre Dame. And this is the discussion of like the closer they get to each other. Is it possible then the head to head will matter?

[Bill]

I feel like they're closing the gap on Notre Dame not so much by virtue of what they're doing on the field themselves, but because Notre Dame keeps looking good and they're getting credit for a good win.

[Doug]

Oh yeah, okay, right.

[Bill]

Well then when. When do those two things.

[Doug]

Should Notre Dame try to beat Stanford by three to hurt Miami?

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[Doug]

Book [e-mail] all right, so the top five, no surprise. Ohio State 1. Indiana 2. Texas A&M 3. Georgia 4. Texas Tech 5. So this continues to Be the thing. I. I've appreciated some of the sh. Little bit as. As you look at the bracket right. One Ohio State potentially versus the 89 winner of Oklahoma. Notre Dame. Oklahoma. Notre Dame would be a cool first round game. Alabama Ole Miss. I couldn't give two squats about that game. But that that SEC showdown would then play. The winner of that would play Indiana. That's cool. I think that's cool. So like that. That could be the kind of thing. And then the opportunity for whoever would be the 11 opposite Oregon if Oregon's the 6th. Now, now you're looking at Oregon, Texas A m as a 36 game. That's a great game, is it not? And a great big 10 sec showdown.

[Bill]

What did, what did you note about Oregon today?

[Doug]

What did I not. Oh, I guess Notre Dame. Our Oregon had moved up to the third best odds to win the national championship behind Ohio State and Indiana, which is like people just like getting. Getting on the duck train a little bit and they have some injuries that they're dealing with and they beat usc, but it's like a touchdown spread at Washington. So like that's, you know, if Washington had not lost at Wisconsin, Washington would be right in the thick of this conversation right now because Washington is 8 and 3. They should be 9 and 2. If they were 9 and 2 with Oregon coming to their place. The thing about that is it doesn't really change who Washington is as a team because they're much better at home than they were on the road. Wisconsin kind of woke up and it's been, you know, you know, surprising people a little bit here lately. So credit to Wisconsin. That's still a very bad loss for Washington. Right. But if, if Washington was 9 and 2 and Oregon going to their place, we'd be like, holy moly.

[Bill]

Yeah.

[Doug]

This could be a seismic shakeup and really it still could be the same thing. It's just that it's not going to put Washington in if they beat Oregon. But I think they still have the same opportunity to beat Oregon that they would have if they hadn't lost Wisconsin. They're still that same team and they're going to come home and try to get that offense loose against the Ducks. That's a huge game.

[Bill]

It is a huge game. And, and Washington very different team when they play in Seattle, I think. Was it. I think the last time they played there, Washington won. Right. Didn't they? Wasn't it? That would have been the, the year Washington 23.

[Doug]

Yeah.

[Bill]

Went to the national title game. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I Think Washington could win that game? I, I'm like whatever, we'll do our picks later. But like that's not a, it's not a gimme for Oregon. Although I, I had wondered previously if Oregon needed to win these last two games against USC and Washington to get in. I don't know that they're quite in that position anymore based off where they're at right now, but because it's one.

[Doug]

Of the things because, because if, if they had lost to USC like USC, White would take their spot and if Washington was 9 and 2 and Washington beat Oregon, Washington would take their spot. But now that they've beaten USC and that Washington took that other loss, they're not going to lose the spot to the team that. So Now Oregon at 10 and 1, if they just lose to a 10 and 2 Washington team, I mean if they just finish 10 and 2 by losing to Washington and then Washington sitting there with three losses, they're not going to jump Oregon. But it's not a terrible loss. And now you're 10 and 2 Oregon getting compared to other 2 loss teams like Miami and Notre Dame and Vanderbilt and like teams like that. I, I would think that Oregon has a chance to still be in a pretty good spot there, right?

[Bill]

Yeah, I would think so. Yeah.

[Doug]

Yeah. I wouldn't suggest losing it to Oregon neither. It's. They're not definitively out the way, not the way they, you would have maybe thought that if they lost to usc. So anyway.

[Bill]

Yeah.

[Doug]

Circles a little bit.

[Bill]

So do you think I was curious where, where Texas would, would be and, and whether or not they'd be in a spot where like at 9 and 3 could they get in sort of like without chaos maybe? It seems to me at 16 they would still need the chaos even if they beat Texas A and M.

[Doug]

I guess the question is. Yeah, because again it's like how propulsive can that be for a 3 loss team? Is it like, oh my gosh, it's such a great one. That's a three, it's a two and a half point spread, Landis. So it's one of those. It's just so weird. Texas A M at Texas. Texas A M is a road favorite but it's, it's a field goal game. So if you win that, are you gonna jump Vanderbilt, Utah, Miami?

[Bill]

I mean they beat Vanderbilt.

[Doug]

There's. They did beat, they did beat Vanderbilt. Are you gonna jump Utah and Miami? Maybe because like I don't know. But then you're in a situation, right? I don't know. I Think Texas would potentially they'd be at the top of the three loss list. It just wouldn't matter. Would a three loss team get in ahead of some of these two loss teams?

[Bill]

Yeah.

[Doug]

So. All right, we're trapped a little bit in the. In the what if here. But the point is that we think the what if is going to matter because we think some stuff could happen. Right. There's just. Because the thing last week, as you noted was it was in the top 10 teams. Five were favored by 30 or more, three were off. And the only two that played real games, Oregon beat USC and Oklahoma beat Missouri. But like nothing. So the two higher ranked teams won the only two games among ranked teams and then everybody else that like that really mattered wasn't challenged. So even so those, some of these games like, they're not a coin toss game. They are certainly more challenging than what we faced last week. Just let me run through a few of these Bill of the games that really matter and then we could talk about what we think might happen and how that affects what we're going to say for our playoff picks tonight. So again in the acc, Miami at Pittsburgh. Miami favored by six and a half. Virginia Tech at Virginia. Virginia favored by nine and a half. SMU at Cal. SMU favored by 13 and a half. And so you look at that, that's Virginia and SMU and winning in situations. Bill favored by nine and a half and 13 and a half. I think one of them could lose.

[Bill]

Yeah. You think Cal might get them, right? You said at Cal, right. They're gonna go out west. Yeah.

[Doug]

Yep. Stuff so. And then again, Virginia Tech fired coach. Cal just fired their coach. But can replacement coaches like sometimes. Sometimes you get a little juice off of that. I don't know. The Big 12, as we said, Central Florida at BYU. BYU favored by 17 and a half. Texas Tech at West Virginia. Texas tech favored by 23 and a half. Texas Tech and BYU are winning in. I can't imagine either of those teams losing.

[Bill]

I would be shocked. I think that that's what we're getting in Dallas. Rematch. Texas Tech. Byu.

[Doug]

Yes. Big Ten. Ohio State at Michigan. Ohio State favored by ten and a half. Oregon at Washington. Oregon favored by six and a half. Indiana at Purdue. Indiana favored by 28 and a half. Oregon at Washington. We discussed certainly possible. And the way the Ohio State Michigan rivalry has gone, you have to give Michigan a chance there. And by the way, also Michigan's pretty good.

[Bill]

Yeah, yeah. I think I. You have, yeah. Definitely have to give Michigan one is 20. Whatever it was point underdogs last year. You certainly give them a chance as 10 point underdogs at home and they sitting at 15. If they got what would be the best one in the country. I don't know, they might even knock some of these teams out that could win that are ahead of them.

[Doug]

Right.

[Bill]

They might really jump up the rankings.

[Doug]

Yeah, yeah. Very propulsive. And then the SEC, Texas A&M is 7 and oh in the SEC. Georgia has finished its SEC schedule because it's playing its rivalry game with Georgia tech. They are 7 and 1. Bama and Ole Miss are both 6 and 1. Texas A and M is in with the win against Texas. That is Texas A M at Texas. Texas A and M favored by two and a half. If Texas A M loses, it is possible that it would not make the SEC championship game after being one of the three undefeated teams and being at the top of the conference all year.

[Bill]

Which speaks to how bad Texas A and M's SEC schedule has been because tiebreakers is conference win percentage.

[Doug]

Yep. So Bama is at Auburn. Bama is only favored by five and a half. Bama is in with a win in the SEC championship game and out with a loss. So that is crystal clear. The idea again, speaking of fired coaches, that that mighty Alabama is favored by five and a half against fired coach Auburn. It just tells you that that the, the odds makers are not impressed by Alabama. Bill. It's not because they are so super impressed by this underdog Auburn team. This is all about Alabama being mid.

[Bill]

Yeah. And also. And yeah, Alabama's track record under Caitlin DeBoer of playing well and beating good teams and playing erratically and sometimes losing to bad teams. We saw him do it last year. They've done it this year. So I, you know, I. It would be a heck of a thing to lose the, the Iron bowl to an interim coach when you're on the precipice of making the playoff. But they are very capable of it. And also I'm not so sure that maybe, I don't know, like Penn State's rooting for that to happen so that they can get the door back open to try to hire Kaylin DeBoer away from Alabama because guess what, no one's going to want him back in Tuscaloosa if he loses the Iron Bowl.

[Doug]

Oh my God. It's like you're whispering in my ear. God, you are. You know exactly what to say to me, Bill. So Texas A M and Alabama, they are both favored if they win that the SEC championship game. My inclination at the moment is one of them is going to lose, but we'll see.

[Bill]

My inclination.

[Doug]

Okay, now you're. Now you're okay. That's too much. Slow down. That's too much. We have a. We have to finish the show. You're getting me too excited. Georgia done with the SEC schedule. So they are in this situation. They can't do anything. They're playing Georgia Tech and actually like there's stuff that could matter here with playoff stuff. Absolutely. In that Georgia Tech Georgia game. But from an SEC championship standpoint, if at least one of Texas A M or Bama loses, George is in the SEC championship game. So they're just waiting for that because they have. Would have tiebreaker stuff against them and they only have the 1sec loss. So that would be a big deal. And then Ole Miss and that game. Georgia, by the way, is playing Georgia Tech. It's a Georgia Tech home game. But Georgia Tech, which is in Atlanta, sold the game for $10 million to play it in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. So it's a couple miles from campus, but it's not on campus. And it's just going to be filled with dog mentality. Right? I mean, come on. Yeah.

[Bill]

Yeah.

[Doug]

So that. So that's a 13 and a half point spread. I've been thinking all year that Georgia Tech was going to win that game. But then Georgia Tech's defense reminded us last week of how terrible it's been. But also if they don't throw 100 yard pick six, they probably come back and beat Pitt. That offense can get going. When the Georgia Tech offense gets hot, it. It can get hot. Right. But their defense also put them in 28 nothing hole. So I'm not giving up on Georgia Tech giving Georgia game just because they lost a pit last week.

[Bill]

I kind of am.

[Doug]

Because like this is the ultimate scenario for me is Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and makes the SEC championship game. And so now you have two loss Georgia going to the SEC championship game. And then what if they lose in the SEC championship game and now there are three loss Georgia and now you're creating SEC chaos. So my. That's my ultimate. That's my. The, the best case scenario is Bama and Georgia both lose this weekend and then we get a Texas A and M Georgia SEC championship game where Texas A and M blows the doors off Georgia. So now Georgia has three losses, Bama has three losses, and then Greg Sankey can just be crying in his turkey. Right? So this is what this is. It's the turkey leftovers he'd be crying in them. So this is like, this is the scenario that like gets me fired up and then Ole Miss Mississippi at Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss is only favored by 7 and a half if Bama and Texas A and M lose. So Georgia is in the SEC championship game if either Texas A and Mirabama lose, if both Texas A M and Bama lose and Ole Miss beats Mississippi State, the SEC championship game is Georgia Ole Miss. So that's the scenario we're talking about. So but like with those four SEC games, Bill, that they're favored by two and a half, five and a half, 13 and a half and seven and a half. I think something's going to happen in there.

[Bill]

I picked a lot of something to happen in there. That's why my predictor rankings got a little wild this week.

[Doug]

Yeah. Okay. All right.

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[Doug]

So let's get to our predicted rankings because people have lives and they want to get onto their lives. We have a lot of Ohio State Michigan coverage coming this week. We still are doing this national stuff. We would invite you to join us for any and all of it here or on the substack. And by the way go see our [e-mail] maybe you leave some hints at the Thanksgiving table. It's like hey, you like quarter zips or do you like hoodies? I can't remember. I just like I'm just do I'm doing a quarter zip and hoodie survey of the Thanksgiving table. Just out of curiosity. And you're large. Are you large? Is that right? And now here you are. You're prepping the Christmas shopping and nobody is on to you. And then you sneak away from the Thanksgiving table. Right. Right between the main course and then before they bring out the pies, because before the pies come out, everyone's got to take a break. You undo the belt buckle, you sit back and you say, excuse me, I have to go to the restroom. But then when you go, what you actually do is you go to roback.com you actually can do both. Go sit on the john. This is an official commercial approved by the Roback people. Sit on the john at Thanksgiving dinner and order Christmas presents. @roback.com Go to the game day collection. You have the data from your friends and family. Hoodie, quarter, zip, polo, Right? You go to your favorite team, you use this code. Bad 20, bad 20. You order it, your Christmas shopping is done. You finish your business, you zip up, you flush, you go back, you eat pie. Boom. What a holiday.

[Bill]

Quite the picture you painted there.

[Doug]

Yeah. I'm going to get a call. They're going to disassociate. I think I'm going to get a call about this. All right, let's do our actual playoff predicted rankings. We've been doing this all year. I'll be very curious at the end of the year, Bill, when we get the real playoff rankings to go back and see which week were we the closest? And I'm pretty sure it's going to be like we were kind of on it in week three and then we got dumber over the next two months of the season. Very possible. I am highly anticipating that. Why don't we start with you? What are your playoff. Actual predictions of what the playoff field is going to be?

[Bill]

Okay, so I will. I will set the table by telling you that here, here is what I'm predicting to happen this week. Georgia wins, beats Georgia Tech. Alabama loses the Iron Bowl. Texas A M loses to Texas, and Ole Miss loses the Egg Bowl. So those are. Yeah. So then.

[Doug]

So that's this. In that scenario, do you know what the SEC championship game actually is then? It's Georgia versus who?

[Bill]

A M still.

[Doug]

Oh, it is. Okay, so A M loses, but still gets in because everybody else that matters also.

[Bill]

Yeah. Oh, but we're also getting out. We're getting Alabama and Ole Miss out of here. So here are my predicted rankings.

[Doug]

Okay.

[Bill]

Number one, Ohio State, Big Ten champ. Number two, Georgia, SEC champ. Number three, Indiana, Big Ten, runner up.

[Doug]

Okay.

[Bill]

Number four, a. M. SEC. Five, Texas Tech, Big 12 champ.

[Doug]

Okay.

[Bill]

Six, Oregon. Yep. So I. I have Oklahoma seven. Now in this scenario, Oklahoma and Ole Miss would end up with the same record and Ole Miss has a head to head, but I don't think it'll matter because Oklahoma has other better wins, which is like a weird thing, but that's sort of how the committee does stuff. Yeah. I have Notre Dame at 8. So this bumps Notre Dame up to get. Getting a home game.

[Doug]

Nice.

[Bill]

Number nine, BYU.

[Doug]

Oh, wow.

[Bill]

Number 10, Miami.

[Doug]

Yep.

[Bill]

Number 11, Virginia.

[Doug]

Okay.

[Bill]

Number 12, North Texas.

[Doug]

Okay. Okay. I do like that a lot and I, I appreciate the thought that you put into it there. I'm still on the fence with some of mine, but our. Our top is very similar. I'm gonna say number one, Ohio State. Number two, Texas A and M, who I think will beat Texas and actually finish the season undefeated as the SEC champ. And I believe Ohio State will do the same. Indiana 3, just like you. I have Texas Tech 4. I have Oregon 5. Like propulsive Oregon with a single loss to just Indiana and really handling business. I have Georgia six, which is Bama loses. They get in the SEC championship game. And I guess I'm saying they don't lose to Georgia Tech anymore. But I, I also don't want to give up on that. So I don't know. So you do drop. You. You dumped Ole Miss out entirely?

[Bill]

All the way out. Because it's. Yeah, it's like it's Ole Miss against Oklahoma, Notre Dame, BYU with 11 wins and a second loss in this conference title game. And it just really feels to me like they want to put Miami in because they have to put Notre Dame in. So I think they would put Miami in ahead of Ole Miss.

[Doug]

Okay, man, you. That BYU is beautiful. That's a beautiful spot in there. Okay, so Oregon 5, Georgia 6, Ole Miss 7 for me. Oklahoma 8, Notre Dame 9, Miami 10. So I'm still giving the SEC too many teams, but I, I wasn't as brave as you. Pit 11.

[Bill]

Okay, that's your ACC champ.

[Doug]

That's my ACC champ, which is smu. Luke gets upset by Cal. Pit. No, this is a. But this is bad by me. I actually that's a bad vote. I'm gonna have to change this because I can't have Miami and pit in because Pitt would have to beat Miami to make the ACC title game and then that would knock Miami out. So I'm gonna knock Miami out and give that spot to byu. Sorry, Miami. So I'm gonna have Miami lose to pit. So that's BYU 10, pit 11. And then I have two, lane 12. So this is Tulane Anticipating it. I think we're going to get a Tulane, North Texas American championship game either way. Navy has the toughest game this week, but even if all three win, Navy's out. And I don't think either North Texas or Tulane are going to lose this week. So then we'll get a North Texas Tulane game and I'm going to go with Tulane in that one.

[Bill]

So probably Eric Morrison already leaving and very likely that John Summerall, I don't know, takes whichever of the Florida, LSU jobs Lane Kiffin doesn't take.

[Doug]

No, that actually probably is right. So like, again. But I, So I'm very curious, like, how. How fired coaches react, teams with fire coaches, how they react, how teams. Who's. Whose coaches might be leaving for bigger jobs, how they react. All this really matters. But the bottom line here is that we're trying to project stuff. The. What we're really projecting is some chaos because we could have just gone chalk. Basically, you're going to get what you just saw on the ESPN show. And that's not what we're saying.

[Bill]

No, that's not what we're saying. It's. It's not fun to predict. So, like, I'll. Whatever, I'll steer into the direction of possibly being wrong for the sake of having some fun. You, by the way, have created some tremendous first round matchups with your projection.

[Doug]

Oh, for real? Did I.

[Bill]

You have, you have Pit going to Georgia, like Nard Dog going up against the dogs.

[Doug]

Actually, no, I guess I. Oh, yeah, I do. Let's do that. Oh, come on. I'm going to that game. Okay.

[Bill]

You have, you have BYU at Ole Miss.

[Doug]

Let's go.

[Bill]

Culture clash there.

[Doug]

Let's go. Yeah. Culture class. Yeah.

[Bill]

Classic Notre Dame, Oklahoma.

[Doug]

Okay. Let's give the people what they want. Let's give the people what they want. It's hard to get a handle on how all this stuff is going to shake down the. The main thing is if you're a fan of that group that's waiting for chaos, we both think you're going to get it. And then, like, how it exactly shakes out. We're not sure. I did a bad job on the show. I'm all over the place. I'm thrown off having to watch that much meaningless college basketball. It's like I had a worm in my brain. It's like I had a tapeworm that watching Seton Hall, USC is the equivalent of having a tapeworm in your brain. No offense to Seton hall, usc, but nobody cares. No offense to college basketball fans everywhere. But I'M just saying, for the most part, the people who would consume what they're consuming right now, nobody cares. So thank you for delaying the thing that we all wanted to talk about. And then it just threw me off and I just said a bunch of stuff that didn't make sense. And then I just wanted to get Nard Dog to Athens. Sorry.

[Bill]

Yeah, we got to finish the show, though, so we can go watch Washington State play Arizona State.

[Doug]

Oh, okay. Nardog Marching to the Sea. We have a bunch of. We have a bunch of stuff coming this week on our. On our sub stack. We're gonna do. Well, we're gonna do a big game breakdown that will be here on the YouTube and podcast feeds for Ohio State Michigan. So look for that on Wednesday, we're gonna do a show with our substack subscribers talking about the Ohio State Michigan game. That'll be subscribers only. You can find that. We'll have our national picks on Thursday morning and I might drop something extra on Friday. Then we'll do a postgame show pretty immediately after Ohio State Michigan on Saturday. Sorry. Sorry, we were off. You know, like, they have like the. They have awards for the best podcast and stuff. I'm not submitting this episode.

[Bill]

Yeah, this is. Yeah, it's fine.

[Doug]

Not.

[Bill]

It was fun. It was great.

[Doug]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Best podcast that had to overcome the hellaciousness of a basketball game that nobody cared about. The nominees are. Thanks you guys for being here. We'll do better next time because we won't have to have our whole livelihood hinge on whether this freaking basketball game's going to overtime. We appreciate Everybody in the YouTube chat. We see you. We love you. Thanks for joining us. If you're listening back, appreciate it so much. Go see our [e-mail] have a great Thanksgiving. If we don't see you or talk to you before it's bird time, and then we just are going to be getting ready for Rivalry Week. Man, Rivalry Week is good though, right? I wish Rivalry Week wasn't during a midweek holiday week so that. Can you imagine if we could just all invest every ounce of our energy into Rivalry Week like it was a normal week, but I just don't know what to do. But I don't know how they can fix it. The other thing I said can, if you bump it up, if you make zero week one, move it to what Week zero is now and then end and like, have this be. Could you have this be like an off week? Would that make sense at all? Like a final bump up, you get one buy. That would be interesting, especially if the playoff expanded. It was like, okay, if we're gonna expand the playoff, but we're gonna give everybody a week off when the regular season ends. Just chill out. And maybe you could fix the recruiting calendar too. And it's like the. When nobody plays between the end of the regular season and conference championship weekend, we'll do the recruiting in there, but like the players bodies and brains can recover a little bit. And then we won't make people try to jam this in around Thanksgiving. Although some people really like it, Bill, because people have talked about families in town, friends are in town, you eat a bird on Thursday, you watch a game on Saturday. It's the ultimate week. So I don't know, maybe. Maybe having rivalry week with Thanksgiving is the best thing. Is it?

[Bill]

I don't know. I. Yeah, I think maybe we're coming at it too much from the perspective of like covering it and like, it just kind of like jam. Jams your week together when you're trying to write stuff and do podcasts. But like Friday schedule is pretty sweet. So like, I don't know, it really is having Thanksgiving and just sitting on your couch while you're still in your trip, the fan coma, watching all those games. Yeah, I can be into that.

[Doug]

Yeah, maybe that's true. Okay, we'll figure it out another time. For now, thanks you guys for joining us. He's Bill. I'm Doug, and that was the Bill of Doug Show.

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