← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
College Football Playoff semi picks: Oregon revenge vs. Indiana; Miami a good matchup for Ole Miss?
00:36:19
It's Miami vs. Ole Miss on Thursday in the Fiesta Bowl and Indiana vs. Oregon on Friday in the Peach Bowl, and on this episode of The Bill and Doug Show, the guys are making picks for both games.
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- [00:03]
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- [02:07]
Doug Lay
Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. Picking the semifinals, Doug Lay, Maurice and Bill Landis. Thursday, 7:30pm Eastern Ole Miss versus Miami. That's a 6 versus 10. Friday 7:30 Eastern Indiana Oregon. That's a 1 versus a 5. Landis we'll start with Ole Miss in Miami. Is this awesome? I like it's it's good right it's different. It's a six and a 10, an eight, won the national championship last year. Like, these are. This is. These are not teams that would have even had a chance. Now they have both won two games in unexpected fashion, knocking off two blue bloods of the sport in Ohio State and Georgia. Definitely a different flavor.
- [02:49]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I think it's fun, you know, that. Well, I guess like, Miami preseason had a little bit of buzz, and then. And certainly after beating Notre Dame kind of elevated itself, I think, into the conversation for everybody, but then they sort of fell off the radar. So for them to get back to this position, I think is. Is pretty impressive. And then for Ole Miss, I think to kind of navigate a very strange season to get to this point too, is. Is sort of equally impressive. So I realize these aren't the, you know, the two sexiest teams or sexiest brands in college football, though certainly Miami has a history. I think this is probably what the sport wanted right when it expanded the playoffs. So here we are to sort of at least not modern blue bloods. Miami, I think maybe at a time was competing for a spot in the national championship.
- [03:40]
Doug Lay
I wonder what the sport wanted. Like, they wanted to provide opportunity, but did they really want opportunity to be in the top four?
- [03:46]
Bill Landis
Yeah, maybe. I don't know. Well, they got. They got two. Two new money semifinal. So whether or not they want it.
- [03:53]
Doug Lay
If they got it, please enjoy your time in the playoff, but lose in the first or second round, and then we can get back to Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, Notre Dame figuring this thing out. Texas. Right. That kind of thing.
- [04:05]
Bill Landis
And that's people love, like George Mason making the Final Four. Weren't people excited about that?
- [04:12]
Doug Lay
I always think in the college basketball tournament, you hit a ceiling with the underdogs. Like, you want the underdog to knock off. You love the. The 16, 15, 14, 13, winning that initial game. But then at some point it's like, oh, okay, can we. Can we have, like, the good teams each other now? I think you like this. You like the underdog making the sweet 16. Sometimes I wonder if you're actually excited about them making the Final Four.
- [04:37]
Bill Landis
So what if it's all underdogs? Because that's. I mean, that's not. That's not a direct comparison of what we have here, but it's not like. Because sometimes you get that and then they just run into whatever Duke and get their doors blown off. Yeah, like Duke's not in the Final Four this year.
- [04:54]
Doug Lay
I think you want good players and exciting things. And so I You know, it's one of those things. If Steph Curry's on your underdog, then great, like, I think, because I think you want guys to connect to you, maybe want guys that are a preview of something to come. And that's the thing about this, that, you know, there's a lot of guys on these four teams that we're going to be seeing. Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore might be the first two picks in the draft, right? So this is not Ohio State, Notre Dame, Alabama, Georgia, but this is, this is a lot of talent. Trinidad Chambliss might be in people's lives, right? Reuben Bane and Akeem Mezador are going to be in people's lives. Kante Scott's going to play in the NFL, right? That Quan Lacy is going to play in the NFL. So, like, there's, I think that's, that's an interesting part of, is one of those you look at. So this first game, it's in the Fiesta bowl on Thursday. Ole Miss, Miami. Miami is favored by three and a half. The total is 52 and a half in the Brian Fermo index. FEI Miami is six. And the SP plus from Bill Connolly, Miami is eight. FEI Ole misses 11. SP plus Ole Miss is five. So those two statistical ratings have them actually flipped in terms of who's the better team. SP plus still has some lingering, I think, recruiting stuff in there, maybe like a talent quotient. This is a little bit. Bill. I think coming in to the playoff, we sort of, at least when we got to the final eight, it was pretty clear there were two, I think, weaknesses among the final eight teams. The other six teams were pretty balanced, but relatively speaking. But it was the Texas Tech offense which showed up because they got shut out. They were the worst unit. The final eight Texas Tech offense, I don't think there's any doubt about that. And then the Ole Miss defense this game a little bit is that. That the Miami offense is, is the weaker part of the. The Hurricanes and the Ole Miss defense is the weaker part by fei Miami offense, 15. Miami defense, 5. Old miss offense, 7. Old miss defense, 44. So is this, is it too simplistic to say this is a showdown of can the Miami defense stop Trinidad Chambliss and Quan Lacy on the Ole Miss offense?
- [07:06]
Bill Landis
Yeah, that's kind of what it feels like. Which, like, raises some interesting questions, right? Because I, I think, I don't know, whatever. If you were to look at, like, the recruiting pedigrees of both those sides of the ball, I'm sure Miami has an advantage. But there's some things stylistically with Ole Miss's offense, number one among them being like the pace they play with that I think could present some problems for Miami if they're not able to get them off the field quickly. Right. I thought we saw in the cotton ball against Ohio State that the Miami's defensive line got a little tired kind of in the middle of that game because they don't, they don't take Bane and Mezadore off the field. A little bit of tackle, but they don't take the ends off the field. And I think, you know, when you're a defensive lineman who doesn't come off the field, you do have to sort of find your spots to catch your breath when you're playing. And, and I think in those moments against Ohio State, Ohio State was able to move the ball a little bit and oh, Ohio State plays slow. So like, like if the, if the pace is really humming for Ole Miss, I think that creates some interesting matchup questions here. And then add sort of Trinidad Chambliss's escapability on top of that. And I think you could sort of easily say, well, the matchup favors Miami and I think it probably does. But there are a couple things about Ole Miss that could make this interesting.
- [08:20]
Doug Lay
I think in a lot of ways. And we just did a show up for our Substack subscribers. If you want to go find us on Substack where we write about Ohio State, we talk about Ohio State. Bill and Doug osu.substack.com We just did a two hour show where I tried on a shirt from China. But we also talked about the Ohio State, Miami game for 95 minutes and rewatching that game and breaking down that game. And there were, there were some parts of that game that what Miami is and what Miami does were a bad matchup for Ohio State. That here's this really good Ohio State defense and if you're like this high flying offense, they're going to do some stuff and disguise some coverages and give you different looks and try to slow you down. Miami and Carson Beck were like, that's fine. We'll just take a three step drop and throw a seven yard out. You and your fancy defense have a good time. We're limited anyway. Like what do you want us to do? We don't really have anybody who can stretch the field. We're gonna Dink and Duncan. So like, congratulations on your scheme, Matt. Patricia, it doesn't matter. And then also Ohio State's offensive line and a quarterback who doesn't scramble. It's like, okay, well now Ohio, you know, Miami started that game off getting after the quarterback a little bit. Ole Miss feels like the opposite of that. That I actually feel like the things that Miami did that were an issue for Ohio State. Ole Miss is the opposite of that. That Ole Miss is like, I don't know, we don't really stop anybody that much. So it's like, you know, we're, we're not some great defense that like, oh, if you, we're, we're ready to give up points. We don't have a defensive identity that you're going to prepare for, prepare for and then dink and dunk and move your way down the field. Because what I think actually would be more dangerous against Ole Miss is like a really good high flying offense. If this was Ohio State and trying to defend Jeremiah Smith and trying to defend Carnell Tate and trying to defend Julian sand with maybe out getting at without getting after the passer the same way Miami does. I think maybe Ole Miss's defense would be in trouble. Right. But Ole Miss is not afraid of this Miami offense, I think because I think Miami's just going to try and dink and dunk anybody. So I think that's a better matchup for Ole Miss. And then Miami defensively is going to get after the quarterback. And guess what? Trinidad Chandler is going to run away from you. According to PFF, he is the highest rated quarterback among Power 4 quarterbacks right now against pressure and he can run. But also he had zero scramble yards according to PFF against Georgia because he scrambled to throw and he scrambled to make big plays to save them at the end of the game. So whereas Julian Saenz not a scrambler. So when that pressure came, he kind of had trouble getting away from it sometimes. So I just think they're. Ole Miss is so different than Ohio State that Miami was difficult for Ohio State. I wonder how difficult what Miami does is going to be for Ole Miss who frankly no offense plays like a.
- [11:09]
Bill Landis
Bunch of lunatics, which is hard to account for. Right. I do think, yeah, I think like Ohio State, like you know what you're going to get. It's not that something it's easy to stop. But I don't think you're expecting to get Okie doked, right? Like you don't know what you're gonna get from. From this unpredictable band of Ole Miss Rebels. I was looking at as you were talking to the, the PFF offensive line, pass blocking efficiency Ohio State, which had a heck of a time trying to block Miami is 49th now. That includes the game against Miami didn't go well, but still I think they were like low 30s before that game. Ole Miss is fifth. Okay. Like, I don't, and I don't know, like I could pretend to be an expert at Ole Miss's offensive line but, but will they be able to protect Chambliss maybe even slightly more than Ohio State was able to protect Julian Saying. And then, and then Shambles's pressure to sacrate, which is how often did you actually get sacked when you are pressured is great. It's 13.9, which is among the best rates in the country and I think the best rate of any of the quarterbacks left in, in the playoff. I know there are only four, so I, I. Matchups matter. And, and I, and I do think there, there are some things here that can push you toward Ole Miss or at the very least like this being. And it's like it's a close spread. It's three and a half. So like Miami saver by a bunch. But to this being like actually a pretty even matchup even if on paper like not like player by player may not, may not point you in that direction.
- [12:40]
Doug Lay
Ole Miss wants a shootout, right? That fair to say they just played a game in the 30s against Georgia.
- [12:46]
Bill Landis
All their games again. Yeah. Yeah. They won a high scoring game. Yeah.
- [12:51]
Doug Lay
Can Miami get in a shootout?
- [12:53]
Bill Landis
That's what I, I don't my. I think, I think no, like, and that's, that's going to be the. I think the biggest part of this game is like whose style wins out.
- [13:02]
Doug Lay
Right.
- [13:02]
Bill Landis
This can turn it into a track meet. Is Miami equipped to do that? And if Miami can, you know, get off the field on defense, which it does at a pretty good clip, and run the ball, which it might be able to because Ole Miss's run defense is not great, then they're just going to make it. Applauding low possession game. That is not what Ole Miss wants to play.
- [13:22]
Doug Lay
Yeah, I don't know, man. I mean, so, so let's just be realistic about something here. I ain't picking the sec. So don't, don't bet your house on what old French Vanillis bringing to the table here. But there are parts of this. And when we did our quarterback draft, all I remember is that I picked him because. But I can't remember if we picked him fourth or fifth. Trinidad Chambliss. Is Trinidad Chambliss the most important player left in the playoff? I would say yes.
- [13:58]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I think so. Yeah.
- [14:00]
Doug Lay
That if Trinidad Chambliss, who just threw all this on his back at the end against Georgia does that then I don't know. Then like I, I don't know. Yeah, that guy is the utmost playmaker. And the thing about that Ole Miss Georgia game was that Gunner Stockton, who was also a lunatic and in the best sense of their football lunatics in the best sense of the word, they are playmaking quarterbacks. That's not Carson Beck. And if you can speed up Carson Beck and, or put pressure on him, not literal pressure with your defensive front, but scoring pressure, perception pressure of like, okay, Trinidad Chambliss just did some crazy stuff and let a touchdown drive. What do you got? Carson Beck. I think Carson Beck's gonna throw picks. Yeah, I don't like that for Miami. And if, and if Akeem Mezador and Ruben Bane are in the Mississippi Ole Miss backfield the way they were against Ohio State, I don't think Trinidad Chambliss is going to take some of the sacks that Julian say and took where they're. Whether they were Julian saying's fault or not. He didn't escape pressure. It's not his game. Trinidad Chambliss, his whole game is escaping pressure. And the idea that in a game like this, Akeem Mesador or Ruben Bang can smoke their dude. And the end result of that play is a 29 yard gain for Ole Miss instead of a sack. That's how games are flipped. And Ohio State didn't do that once. Was there a single play where Miami, a Miami defensive or a pass rusher smoked an Ohio State guy and it turned into a really good play for Ohio State? I don't remember one. We just the whole game and talked about it.
- [15:42]
Bill Landis
If, if a Miami defensive player smoked an offensive player State, he was getting the sack.
- [15:48]
Doug Lay
Yeah.
- [15:52]
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- [16:46]
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- [17:49]
Doug Lay
Don't you expect that's going to happen in this game at least once or twice? Get away?
- [17:56]
Bill Landis
Yeah, yeah, I, I definitely think he will. And I also think, like on the, on the flip side of that, Ole Miss now has the benefit of having seen Carson Beck like scramble a little bit against Ohio. Like that was the best thing he did against Ohio State was scramble.
- [18:11]
Doug Lay
Yep.
- [18:12]
Bill Landis
So maybe they'll have a better plan for that than Ohio State did because Ohio State didn't really adjust to that until kind of the second to last possession. Everybody, would you pick Ole Miss if everything about this game was the same and Ole Miss was in the Big 12, would you pick Ole Miss?
- [18:27]
Doug Lay
A thousand percent.
- [18:28]
Bill Landis
Okay.
- [18:35]
Doug Lay
And I almost feel like because, because I want to do a show this week, I almost feel like I could craft a scenario where Ole Miss wins the national championship and it's still a black mark for the SEC because they're so unsec and they're coachless. And the idea that Nick Saban gave Lane Kiffin the advice to go to LSU and abandon Ole Miss and then Ole Miss wins the national championship and that haunts Lane Kiffin and proves that Nick Saban gives terrible advice for the rest of their lives. I, I that's the most acceptable SEC national championship that you could hope for, right? That it is a disaster for everybody involved. Other than congratulations to the Ole Miss players and current coaches, half of whom are still Working at two places right now. We thought, the world thought that the playmaking program carrying transformational transfer among SEC quarterbacks this season was Diego Pavia and it was Trinidad Chambliss. And. And I didn't vote for Diego Pavia for the Heisman. But I don't even. Trinidad Chambliss certainly did not finish in the top 10. I don't know where if maybe you got a third place vote from somebody. Would it be so bad if we were waiting to vote for the Heisman and if Old Miss wins the national championship, Trinidad Chambliss won the Heisman. Would that be so offensive to people though? All you're gonna do is reward the bet like the best player on the. On the national champion. Okay. Diego Pavia finished second and then lost to Iowa. Everyone feel great about that right now. They weren't flying high. And then guess what if we get turned it up.
- [20:23]
Bill Landis
We thought the Heisman, he was eighth.
- [20:27]
Doug Lay
He was eight. All right. Well then he could have grabbed some momentum. So the guy who finished eighth might lead his team in the national championship. We thought the Big Ten championship game was for the Heisman. Julian sand versus Fernando Mendoza. Fernando Mendoza, 1. Would it be so offensive if the national championship game was for the Heisman? Fernando Mendoza vs Trinidad Chambliss. If that's how it worked out. Would everyone be so offended by that? And guess what? Maybe Fernando Mendoza would still win. Maybe Fernando Mendoza could lose in the semis and still absolutely 1000% deserve the Heisman. Get a lot of votes.
- [20:54]
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- [20:56]
Doug Lay
But like Trinidad, like, why are we doing this?
- [20:59]
Bill Landis
Yeah.
- [21:00]
Doug Lay
I don't want to make Diego Poppy mad, so that's fair. I don't want him to yell at people. How dare you suggest that we should be voting for Trinidad Chambliss. But Diego. Diego Pavia walked with his middle fingers extended so Trinidad Chambliss could run.
- [21:16]
Bill Landis
I do think, like, we. I think it's a. It's a conversation worth having what we do with the Heisman. But we should also have a postseason award if we're not going to have the playoff factor into the highs.
- [21:26]
Doug Lay
Yeah.
- [21:27]
Bill Landis
So that Chambers can win that if he leads Ole Miss to a national title. Can I present a theory to you?
- [21:33]
Doug Lay
Please do.
- [21:36]
Bill Landis
So I've been waiting for this weird, like, staff dynamic with Ole Miss to matter. The fact that Ole Miss's entire offensive staff is going to lsu and Link Kiffin pretty clearly wants them to stop coaching Ole Miss and come to Baton Rouge. And like, people are flying back and forth between the two Places to get recruit for LSU and get a game plan together for Ole Miss. Ole Miss's first two games were against teams that it had previously played. Now, Tulane wasn't going to be much of a threat, but like the cake was baked for Tulane and Georgia. I don't think there had to be much game planning involved there. And this is all new and I think that might matter a lot.
- [22:13]
Doug Lay
Great point. Makes me feel better about not picking an SEC team here. Well said. It's a lose, lose situation and you're either picking a former Georgia quarterback or you're picking an actual SEC team. So. So it's a lose, lose. I. The one thing is like Miami deserves to be here, right? The team that people thought wasn't going to get in at all to beat Texas A and M, who was undefeated through 11 games in the SEC and then to beat Ohio State as a defending national champion. A team that made the Big Ten title game and was undefeated through the regular season. Like Miami deserves to be here. They have won their way here. Ole Miss is, has just, is. Is a, is a benefactor of SEC midness, right? That, that bracket, that three team bracket was going to produce a semifinalist. It was Tulane, Georgia and Ole Miss. And one of them had to be here. And so congratulations to Ole Miss. But maybe they're also frauds because I think Georgia in some ways is a fraud, right? So there's just some fraudulence all over the place. But also there's no fraudulence with Trinidad Chambla. So, like, he's the guy that, like, I don't. That makes it hard for me to get away from Ole Miss, right? Because quarterback matchup. Ask a hundred scouts, there's. Nobody would take Carson back, would they? Who's taking Carson Beck. Somebody who's stuck in 18 months ago when people thought Carson Beck was gonna. Can I just talk about the idea that NFL talent evaluators are idiots, by the way. My God, remember, we're getting Carson Beck shoved down our throats and Garrett Nussmeier. Nobody knows nothing. Who wouldn't take Trinidad Jambliss here?
- [23:58]
Bill Landis
No, I think everybody would.
- [24:00]
Doug Lay
Yeah, I'm picking Miami. 18:17, because I just can't. Can't do it. 18:17. That's six field goals for Miami. That's Trinidad Chambliss running backwards on the last play of the game and throwing a pass into the end zone that is tipped by nine people and falls to the turf. As he falls to the ground and looks to the heavens and raises his arms and asks for an extra year of eligibility. So like, I, I just like, I, I mean it kind of, but I, if, if I was betting my house, I'd probably, if I was making a moneyline pick for my house, I, I'd probably pick Ole Miss. But I guess I'm also taking Ole Miss with the points, so.
- [24:42]
Bill Landis
You are.
- [24:43]
Doug Lay
I'm taking Ole Miss plus a three and a half. So that's distasteful enough.
- [24:48]
Bill Landis
I feel like everything we've discussed like, makes it. I think we should pick Ole Miss. I'm also picking Miami. I, I do. Trinidad Shambles is only pressured on like 17 of his drop backs against Georgia. I think that number.
- [25:00]
Doug Lay
You know why? Much.
- [25:01]
Bill Landis
Much. Because George's password sucks.
- [25:03]
Doug Lay
Yeah.
- [25:03]
Bill Landis
But Georgia's pastor sucks, which we talked about coming into the playoff. Miami's. Miami's doesn't. So I think, I think he'll be under much more pressure against Miami and he still might make plays. But I, I actually think Miami will get to him in a way that Georgia wasn't able to. And I do, I do kind of think that weird coaching stuff kind of comes home to roost here for, for Ole Miss as well. And I think like with the way that Miami can run it and how physical they are in the lines of scrimmage, I do think they will dictate the kind of the terms of the game. So I will. I'm going to pick Miami. 27, 21.
- [25:38]
Doug Lay
They have a chance. And that was the best thing, that, the most surprising thing, the best thing I think they did against Ohio State was get some of that stuff going in the run game and get some, get some nice second level blocks, do some stuff on the interior right, move some people and they have some offensive linemen who could do that. And I don't, I don't know. And Ole Miss's defense is like, is not great. So I don't know if they're going.
- [26:00]
Bill Landis
To hold up for that.
- [26:01]
Doug Lay
So. All right, those are our picks. We're Both picking Miami. Second game is on Friday, 7:30 in the Peach bowl in Atlanta. Indiana versus Oregon. It's a rematch. Indiana 1 in Austin Stadium at Oregon 3020 on October 11th. Indiana also favored by three and a half. So we have two three and a half point lines here. 47 and a half is the total. These are two excellent balance teams. Fei, Brian from O. Indiana's 1. Oregon is 2. Indiana is third in both offense and defense. Oregon is second in offense and fourth in defense. SP plus Bill Connolly. Indiana 1, Oregon 2 Indiana third in offense, second in defense. Oregon, seventh in offense, third in defense. These. These are two more complete teams than what we talked about in the first semifinal. They've been there all year. Indiana hasn't lost. Oregon's only lost to Indiana. A couple injuries that do matter in this game. Stephen Daley on the defensive line for Indiana is out. That has been the case in the playoff. He got hurt celebrating the Big Ten championship win over Ohio State. And then Jordan Davison, who's part of the running back trio for Oregon, is also out on the injury report for this game. And it's like the Oregon run game really intrigues me here, Bill. They've been running it pretty healthily much of the year. Their backs against Washington in the last game of the regular season, only 32 carries for 90 yards, 2.8. And again against Texas Tech, which again invested all their money in the defensive line. The Oregon running backs were 31 carries for 86 yards, also 2.8. In the first game against Indiana, Oregon's running backs were 20 carries for 100 yards. Not doing the overall rushing totals. I'm only doing what the running backs did to take out the sacks and take out the QB run. And then the other weird stuff without Jordan Davison. They'll run it with Noah Whittington and Dear Hill. They still have guys who can do it. But if Oregon can't run it, I think they might be in trouble. But also I wonder. I think maybe they can even though Davidson's out. Because Davidson. Davidson averages like 10, 12 carries a game. He's not like they're missing 25 carriers here. Whittington will be okay and Dier Hill will just step up his role.
- [28:16]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I. Oregon's offensive line, I thought, play pretty well against Texas Tech, too. So I, I don't know. I think they'll be able to run it because it's been. It's been like by committee all year. Right. So I don't maybe, you know, you hope to have Davidson or we hoped you could have him if you're Oregon, but it's not like you're suddenly pulling the guy out of the lineup who had 25 touches a game. So I. And he's a good player, but I think. I think they'll find a way around it. I wonder, like, you know, he's not a huge runner, but, like, can you run Dante Moore a little more to try to account for that maybe, or get some of these receivers involved in the run game on, like, sweeps and stuff like that?
- [28:48]
Doug Lay
There.
- [28:48]
Bill Landis
There are ways to get your run game going sort of around that unfortunate injury and and I think Indiana's defense is very good. Teams like have run it on them a little. Not, not like for entire games but like when teams have moved the ball on Indiana's defense it has come via.
- [29:09]
Doug Lay
The run.
- [29:11]
Bill Landis
And I like if you take out the sacks from the first game against Oregon. I thought Oregon ran it okay against Indiana too. So and this is the second time seeing this defense. So I, I think Oregon's run game is still like fairly bankable in this game even with the injury.
- [29:29]
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- [30:23]
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- [31:29]
Doug Lay
Everybody's on the Kurt Signetti train now, right? There's nobody left. I'm following NFL people who are talking about why isn't every NFL team with an opening interviewing Kurt Signetti Right. If there's one guy in this sport right now who can stand up to Kurt Signetti and Kurt Signetti's ferocity. And Kurt Signetti's just like, I think what he imbues his. His team with. Right. All those things, the attitude that he's gonna bring to this game. Is it not Dan Lanning?
- [32:08]
Bill Landis
I think it's Dan Landing. Yeah.
- [32:10]
GoFundMe Commercial Voice
Yeah.
- [32:11]
Doug Lay
So I'm gonna smoke one here just to celebrate the fact that. That this is here. Right. That we've reached this point, and that although Ohio State has stumbled, the Big Ten champion is here, the Big Ten champion from last year has reached this point. And these are two incredibly worthy semi finalists that certainly, I think neither of us are surprised to see here. I think even. I think people gave up on Oregon a little bit in October when they lost at home to Indiana. I think in part because people did not realize at that point how good Indiana was. But I will go back to the thing that I've said too many times now, which is this angry Oregon idea that I think Oregon in some ways feel like its national championship was taken away a year ago, and so they might be owed one. Right. That they did this a year ago and then ran into a buzz saw in Ohio State, and Kurt Signetti even said it. It's hard to beat a good team twice. I think that can be overblown. But I think Dan Lanning. There's no doubt Dan Lanning is going to use that. And most of the time with Indiana and Kurt Signetti, like, they have sort of this chip on a shoulder thing that they use against you. And I think Oregon's chip is as big, so.
- [33:30]
Bill Landis
I think so, yeah.
- [33:31]
Doug Lay
If you can match the motivational advantage of what Kurt Signetti brings, that's. I think you're, like, halfway home now. You got to scheme it up, which they do incredibly well. You got to coach it up, which they do incredibly well. They got a playmaker at quarterback. Awesome. So does Oregon. They got playmakers at receiver now that they're healthy. So does Oregon. Right. I mean, these. These. These teams, they got a real defensive identity. Both teams have that. I think these teams are, like, very evenly matched in a lot of ways. And Oregon is mad because they lost.
- [34:05]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I think that matters. And I think, like, it was interesting last year, right, when. When Oregon lost to Ohio State, or, excuse me, when Oregon beat Ohio State in a regular season, and then Ohio State showed up in the Rose bowl, like, playing a pretty drastically different style than what they had played the first time they played Oregon and I don't know that Oregon was ready for that. And there was like some allusion to. To this in the. I was watching a little bit of the joint press conference that Kurt Signetti and Dan Lanning were doing as it pertains to Oregon's defense. Like, Oregon, I think, retooled some stuff defensively after the Indiana game. And Kurt Signetti said, like, yeah, I'm in my early stages watching it, but I see some different stuff. Like, I wonder, like, just like how much different what Oregon might present to Indiana, like, how much different that could be. Of course, Indiana has the chance to do the same thing, but also Indiana hasn't lost, right? They haven't had that sort of that moment of reckoning to think to themselves, like, what we're doing is like, not exactly working. Do we need to change anything? And. Or in Oregon has had that think courtesy of Indiana. So I wonder if there's any advantage for Oregon that way. If they like, if there's a thing here that's different, a thing there that's different, that might spark something in what I expect to be like an incredibly competitive and close game, like, pretty physical game. There are just a couple of things, like, adding up that makes me think, like, maybe in the key moments, Oregon might have the edge.
- [35:26]
Doug Lay
Breaking news. I'm sorry to interrupt the show. Is it okay if I interrupt with breaking news? Apparently Bowling Green kicker Jackson Cleather has committed to Northwestern.
- [35:36]
Bill Landis
Oh, no.
- [35:38]
Doug Lay
So tough loss for Ohio State.
- [35:43]
Bill Landis
Who I don't think was ever really interested, only we were interested.
- [35:51]
Doug Lay
So like the game of like, who's this year's Indiana? Who's. This is. It's one round later. But Indiana is last year's Oregon and Oregon is last year's Ohio State. One is the undefeated, number one team, the last undefeated team standing, and one is the very good team that lost to them during the regular season and now is getting a second shot at them. And I don't want to go too far with it, but if I think a lot of other things are pretty even and I think they are, I think it might be enough to sway me, Bill. It might be enough to sway me.
- [36:25]
Bill Landis
I think it is for me and the, the other like, I actually. So I thought the defensive line, the Stephen Daley injury was going to matter for Indiana against Alabama. I. I just failed to take into account that Alabama stinks. I could have told you Oregon, Oregon doesn't stink. And if you go like, so Daly had a nice game against Oregon. Kellan Wyatt had a Nice game. He got hurt in that game against Oregon for Indiana. So like that's two pretty key defensive pieces for the Hoosiers.
- [36:51]
Doug Lay
One of.
- [36:51]
Bill Landis
One of whom they haven't had for like half the year. But that mattered a pretty significant amount the last time they played Oregon that aren't going to be available in this game. And like I still believe in Indiana's defense. I think they're gonna give Oregon a lot to handle. But Oregon's O line is like significantly better than Alabama's. And I think if that was an edge for Indiana at the first time they played and it was, I think with those two injuries the edge might be back for in Oregon's offensive lines favor in that matchup too.
- [37:20]
Doug Lay
And like everybody has come. There's nobody left who doesn't respect Indiana. Everybody has come around. It took a while for some people that might have taken beating Alabama because there were a few ding dongs out there who like picked Alabama to win that game. Indiana was never going to lose that game. I'm taking Oregon and you and I both, when we did our bracket beforehand. And we are not beholden to it because it's what you think at one point in time before anything starts and then games are played, teams change, things change. And you're allowed to change your mind. But you and I both had Ohio State vs. Oregon in the national championship game. Obviously we're wrong on one part. I will let that influence me slightly because I guess what I would say is I'm not sure that anything has happened with Oregon or Indiana that if I thought it then would change my mind. Now Indiana did what I thought it would do in the quarterfinal. Oregon has done what I thought it would do. And I think Oregon in some ways played an imperfect game against Texas Tech, against an imperfect team, but also like kept grinding and kept banging the drum and like they got stopped on a fourth down or they have to do this. Like they kept at it and shut somebody out in the playoff no matter how limited they are. And that mattered to me. So I'm going to take Oregon 23, 21 over Indiana.
- [38:43]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I'm kind of with you on all that. I pick an Oregon 2, 28, 27. Give me a one point banger.
- [38:52]
Doug Lay
Okay, I would love to give you a one point banger there, Bill. That would be fantastic.
- [38:59]
Bill Landis
It could be. Could it could be like low scoring. Couldn't it be like 17, 14? Could you see that? I think yeah.
- [39:06]
Doug Lay
So the total for Indiana, Oregon is 47 and a half. So I'm under That and you're over that. For Miami Ole Miss, the total is 52 and a half and we are both pretty comfortably under that. I would imagine that French vanilla is putting two three dollar bets on the two unders in these games.
- [39:25]
Bill Landis
Yeah, yeah.
- [39:27]
Doug Lay
So.
- [39:27]
Bill Landis
Well, yeah, I would have. Yeah, I think that's right. I think I would do the same thing. But I've been wrong about that in the past. I think we were, we were watching the Rose bowl in our hotel in Dallas as Indiana was running up the score on Alabama and I said to you, I'm pretty sure I said verbatim during our preview that I don't think or I don't think Indiana is going to kill them. That was unfathomable for me. They just treated him like an FCS team.
- [39:52]
Doug Lay
They ended. Bama, guess what we're gonna do? We're gonna do live. Oh, do we talk about this? We're doing live post game shows after both semi finals. Is that okay with you?
- [40:00]
Bill Landis
Yeah, we. I saw, I saw it on the budget. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [40:04]
Doug Lay
Okay, so we'll be here Thursday as soon as Miami and Ole Miss is over talking about that game. And then we will be here Friday as soon as Indiana and Oregon is over talking about that game. And we have a handle on both these games because I don't know if back in the day people knew we used to do a Northern show. We'd like to hear on the Bill and Doug show. We still look at college football from a northern viewpoint. So we have a handle on the Hoosiers and the Ducks. And then we know a lot about Miami because we just were at the game where Miami beat Ohio State. We just rewatched that game. We have a handle on that. And then nobody has a handle on Ole Miss. Coachless Ole Miss led by a backup quarterback from Division 2. Nobody has a handle on them. But I'll tell you what, I think Trinidad Chambliss is pretty good. So like that's if you're getting any more analysis on Ole Miss other than their coach lists and their Division 2 quarterback transfer who is intended to be here as a backup has saved their bacon. And actually they might be better without Lane Kiffin. There's nothing else to say there. That's the maximum analysis you can get anyway. So if that's what we're saying, everybody else is just. They're saying that and then you're just blowing smoke.
- [41:04]
Bill Landis
I don't know what they're.
- [41:05]
Doug Lay
I don't know what they're talking about.
- [41:07]
Bill Landis
We did learn what's the defensive lineman's name that we learned? We thought it was. They were calling him Suntarian Perkins. We thought it was like he was, like. He was like a fruity drink.
- [41:16]
Doug Lay
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Cousin of the tangerine. So congratulations to all those guys and congratulations to all the players and coaches who have made the semi final, which I do think we should call the final four. It's a big deal. I. I don't know. Do people call it the final four? I think we should call it the final four. In college basketball, you hang a banner for making the final Four. This is quite an accomplishment. I think it means something. So.
- [41:37]
Bill Landis
Yeah. What do they. They can call it the football four.
- [41:40]
Doug Lay
Oh, that's great.
- [41:42]
Bill Landis
Because they call the hockey the frozen four.
- [41:44]
Doug Lay
Oh, the football four. God, this sport's a mess. They need. They need us. All right, we'll be here post game for both those shows, talking about all kinds of stuff for Ohio State, the transfer portal, everything else happened around college football. You can find it here. We appreciate you. Appreciate you guys for joining us. For now, he's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Lee. Maurice. That was the Bill and Doug show.
- [42:12]
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- [42:41]
Doug Lay
Mom.
- [42:41]
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