The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Episode: College Football Playoff Semi Picks: Oregon Revenge vs. Indiana; Miami a Good Matchup for Ole Miss?
Date: January 8, 2026
Podcast Host: Blue Wire

Episode Overview

In this episode, Doug Lesmerises and Bill Landis break down the two upcoming College Football Playoff semifinals: Ole Miss vs. Miami (Fiesta Bowl) and Indiana vs. Oregon (Peach Bowl). The hosts explore matchups, storylines, and make their picks, providing deep analysis rooted in humor, experience, and a Northern CFB perspective. They discuss the quirks of this year’s playoff field, assess each team’s strengths and weaknesses, and debate the unpredictability of underdog teams making a late run.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The "New Money" Playoff: What Does Parity Bring to CFB?

(02:07–04:37)

• Doug (02:07): Opens by remarking on the unusual semifinal matchups: “These are not teams that would have even had a chance. Now they have both won two games in unexpected fashion, knocking off two blue bloods of the sport in Ohio State and Georgia.”
• Bill (02:49): Notes that Miami faded midseason but clawed back, and lauds both teams for their impressive journeys. He points out that neither Miami nor Ole Miss are modern football blue bloods, but this diversity is a feature of the expanded playoff.
• Underdog Ceiling (04:12): Doug likens the playoff to March Madness: people cheer for upsets, but often want favorites by the Final Four. The duo debates if fans really desire underdog stories beyond the Sweet 16/Elite 8.

2. Ole Miss vs. Miami: Contrasting Styles, Quarterback Stars, and the Value of Chaos

(04:54–15:42)

• Matchup Analytics (06:39): Doug provides FEI and SP+ stats, showing a flip in projected strengths (Miami defense strong, Ole Miss offense dynamic). The key question: “Can the Miami defense stop Trinidad Chambliss and Quan Lacy on the Ole Miss offense?”

• Bill (07:05): Highlights Ole Miss’s pace as a potential danger for Miami’s defense: “Ole Miss’s offense, number one among them being the pace they play with … if the pace is really humming for Ole Miss, I think that creates some interesting matchup questions here.”

• Quarterback Dynamic (13:13):

  • Bill: Labels Trinidad Chambliss the “most important player left in the playoff.”
  • Doug: “If Trinidad Chambliss, who just threw all this on his back at the end against Georgia does that … that guy is the utmost playmaker.”

• Miami’s Defensive Test (15:00): Doug explains Miami’s advantage in traditional matchups, but wonders if their schematic strengths versus pocket passers are less relevant vs. Chambliss, who thrives under chaos.

3. Playoff Quarterback Narratives & Heisman Frustrations

(17:48–21:25)

• Playmaking QB as X-Factor (17:48): Bill expects Chambliss will make at least one or two game-altering plays: “Yeah, yeah, I definitely think he will.”
• Heisman Debate (20:26): Doug and Bill riff on postseason awards, suggesting that rewarding the best player on the national champion may not be so bad. “Would it be so bad if we were waiting to vote for the Heisman and if Ole Miss wins the national championship, Trinidad Chambliss won the Heisman?” (Doug, 20:23)

4. Ole Miss’s Coaching Turmoil: Who Calls the Shots?

(21:32–22:13)

• Bill (21:35): Unpacks the Ole Miss staff drama: “Ole Miss’s entire offensive staff is going to LSU ... people are flying back and forth between the two places to get recruit for LSU and get a game plan for Ole Miss.”
• This ongoing instability might finally matter after two playoff wins over familiar teams; against Miami, the lack of continuity could hurt.

5. Quarterback Matchup and Team “Legitimacy”

(22:13–23:59)

• Miami’s Validity (22:13): Doug points out Miami’s tough road and earned place: “Miami deserves to be here. They have won their way here.”
• Ole Miss as the “Benefactor of SEC Midness” (22:17): Doug doubts the SEC bracket's strength and even calls Georgia “a fraud.”
• NFL scouts & QB bias (23:22): Doug vents about NFL evaluators: “Who wouldn’t take Trinidad Chambliss here? ... My God, remember, we’re getting Carson Beck shoved down our throats and Garrett Nussmeier. Nobody knows nothing.”

6. Picks: Ole Miss vs. Miami

(23:59–25:37)

• Doug: Picks Miami 18–17, but admits if betting his house, he’d lean Ole Miss: “If I was making a moneyline pick for my house, I’d probably pick Ole Miss. But I guess I’m also taking Ole Miss with the points.”
• Bill: Also reluctantly picks Miami (27–21), citing Miami’s ability to pressure the QB: “Trinidad Chambliss is only pressured on like 17% of his dropbacks against Georgia. ... Miami’s [pass rush] doesn’t suck. So I think he’ll be under much more pressure.”

7. Indiana vs. Oregon: Revenge Factor, Depth, and Grit

(26:00–38:43)

• Game Setup (26:00–27:43): Indiana is undefeated, Oregon’s lone loss was to Indiana. Both teams have elite offenses and defenses (per FEI and SP+).

  • Oregon missing RB Jordan Davison; Indiana missing DE Stephen Daley.

• Oregon Run Game Questions (28:15): Bill and Doug agree: Despite Davison’s absence, Oregon’s committee approach should keep the ground game viable.

• Coaching Mindgames: Signetti vs. Lanning (31:29):

  • Doug: “If there’s one guy in this sport right now who can stand up to Kurt Signetti ... is it not Dan Lanning?”
  • Bill: “I think it is Dan Lanning, yeah.” (32:08)

• Motivational Edge (33:30): Doug suggests Oregon feels wronged after last year and is “angry” after their October loss to Indiana.

• Schematic Adjustments (34:05):

  • Bill: “Oregon, I think, retooled some stuff defensively after the Indiana game. … I wonder … how much different what Oregon might present to Indiana might be.”

• Injuries and Battle Readiness (36:24): Bill stresses that losing Daley and Wyatt on Indiana’s defensive line gives Oregon’s O-line the edge this time: “Oregon’s O line is like significantly better than Alabama’s ... if that was an edge for Indiana the first time, I think the edge might be back for Oregon.”

• Final Respect for Indiana: Doug: “There’s nobody left who doesn’t respect Indiana.”

8. Picks: Indiana vs. Oregon (38:43–39:05)

• Doug: Oregon over Indiana, 23–21: “If I think a lot of other things are pretty even and I think they are, I think [revenge] might be enough to sway me.”
• Bill: Oregon over Indiana, 28–27: “Give me a one point banger.”

9. Totals & Unders (39:05–39:27)

• Both generally favor the under in both semifinals.
• Doug: “I would imagine that French vanilla is putting two three dollar bets on the two unders in these games.” (39:16)

10. Preparation for Postgame and Listener Thanks

(39:52–41:43)

• The hosts will be live with postgame podcasts after each semifinal.
• Bill and Doug offer their signature blend of Ohio State/Northern college football analysis.
• Doug jokes about the chaos: “Nobody has a handle on Ole Miss. Coachless Ole Miss led by a backup quarterback from Division 2. Nobody has a handle on them. But I’ll tell you what, I think Trinidad Chambliss is pretty good.” (40:38)
• They muse about what to call the semifinals: “The Final Four” or “the Football Four.” (41:37)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the new playoff era:
  • Doug (02:07): “These are not teams that would have even had a chance. Now … different flavor.”
• Miami’s unexpected resilience:
  • Bill (02:49): “For Ole Miss, I think to kind of navigate a very strange season to get to this point too, is. Is sort of equally impressive.”
• Underdogs going too far?
  • Doug (04:12): “I wonder if you’re actually excited about them making the Final Four.”
• On playmaking quarterbacks:
  • Doug (13:59): “That guy is the utmost playmaker. … They are football lunatics in the best sense of the word.”
• The Ole Miss coaching saga:
  • Bill (21:35): “Ole Miss’s entire offensive staff is going to LSU and Lane Kiffin pretty clearly wants them to stop coaching Ole Miss and come to Baton Rouge.”
• Calling out NFL draft groupthink:
  • Doug (23:22): “My God, remember, we’re getting Carson Beck shoved down our throats and Garrett Nussmeier. Nobody knows nothing.”
• On Indiana’s journey & respect:
  • Doug (37:20): “There’s nobody left who doesn’t respect Indiana. Everybody has come around … took a while for some people that might have taken beating Alabama because there were a few ding dongs out there who like picked Alabama to win that game.”
• Chaos at Ole Miss:
  • Doug (40:38): “Coachless Ole Miss led by a backup quarterback from Division 2. Nobody has a handle on them. … Actually they might be better without Lane Kiffin.”
• Semifinal branding laughs:
  • Doug (41:40): “They can call it the football four. … God, this sport’s a mess. They need us.”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Ole Miss vs. Miami preview begins: 02:07
• Ole Miss offense vs. Miami defense discussion: 06:39
• QB discussion and importance of Trinidad Chambliss: 13:13 & 13:59
• Heisman and postseason award debate: 20:26
• Ole Miss coaching staff drama: 21:35
• Final Miami-Ole Miss picks: 23:59–25:37
• Indiana vs. Oregon preview begins: 26:00
• Oregon’s run game and injuries: 28:15
• Coaching edge (Signetti vs. Lanning): 31:29
• Oregon’s schematic adjustments/defensive changes: 34:05
• Indiana vs. Oregon picks: 38:43–39:05
• Postgame podcast announcement: 39:52–40:04
• Naming the semifinals “The Football Four”: 41:40

Summary Table: Host Picks

| Game | Doug's Pick | Bill's Pick | |------|-------------|-------------| | Ole Miss vs Miami | Miami 18–17 (leans Ole Miss w/ points) | Miami 27–21 | | Indiana vs Oregon | Oregon 23–21 | Oregon 28–27 |

Tone & Style

• The dialogue is sharp, playful, and committed to the analytical but irreverent tone long enjoyed by fans.
• Podcasters maintain their signature blend: in-depth stat talk, big-picture college football reflection, plenty of Buckeye-centric jokes, and pointed skepticism toward CFB’s traditional power structure.

For Listeners

This summary captures the episode’s core insights — from how Miami and Ole Miss are “new money” guests in the playoff, to the revenge narrative between Indiana and Oregon, to which quarterback could upend the postseason. Bill and Doug wrestle with the beautiful unpredictability of playoff football, staking out picks while leaving room for chaos, all in their inimitably Northern, Buckeye-wise style.