Podcast Summary: "Early College Football Playoff Picks for 2026: Big Ten depth, 2 elite SEC teams and some shockers"

The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk – March 3, 2026
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis (Blue Wire)

Main Theme

Doug Lesmerises and Bill Landis lay down their earliest predictions for the 2026 12-team College Football Playoff field. Approaching it as a “vibes-based” March exercise, they analyze returning trends, conference dynamics, and their own track records with early picks. This episode is an in-depth, big-picture conversation about how the top of college football is evolving—namely, a power flip between SEC and Big Ten depth, and which teams might surprise or disappoint.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Nature of Early Picks & Recapping Past Misses

• March predictions are meant to spark conversation and track evolving thoughts, not “final answers.”
• Reflecting on 2025 picks, both hosts acknowledge missing badly on consensus disappointments (Clemson, Penn State) while nearly nailing other playoff candidates (Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Alabama).
• “Don’t just pick everybody that the consensus thinks is gonna make it because there’s gonna be a couple teams that people think are gonna be good or gonna suck.” – Doug [01:37]
• Returning production and transfer additions are useful guides but not infallible.

2. Big Ten vs. SEC: A Flip in Power Structure

• Doug presents his “theory of the case”:
  • 2025: SEC had depth, Big Ten was top heavy.
  • 2026: SEC will be “super top heavy” (Georgia and Texas) with no clear third-best team.
  • Big Ten, conversely, will have up to five (or even six) genuine playoff contenders due to strong depth at the top and middle.
• “We might get a 12-0 vs. 12-0 SEC championship game... while the Big Ten gets in five [playoff teams].” – Doug [04:18]
• Both hosts agree the SEC’s mid-tier—after Georgia and Texas—is murky, while the Big Ten’s next tier is much more robust and likely playoff-relevant.

3. 2026 Schedule Analysis as a Driver of Picks

• Texas and Georgia have favorable schedules that could allow both to go unbeaten in the regular season.
• Texas in particular faces an “unusually manageable” SEC draw; Georgia’s biggest test may be at Alabama or Ole Miss.
• “If you don’t think Lane Kiffin is gonna transform Tiger Nation [LSU] this season, I’m not sure who’s beating Texas, brother.” – Doug [08:14]
• For Oklahoma or others as the SEC’s possible No. 3, a brutal schedule looms (vs. Georgia, Texas, at Michigan), likely precluding an appearance.

4. Big Ten Playoff Math: Who Gets In?

• Bill: The middle of the Big Ten is strong, but he doesn’t see a “dark horse” making the playoff—at least not in March.
• Both list the “Big Three” at the top of the conference:
  • Indiana (defending national champs, returning much of the defense and OL)
  • Ohio State
  • Oregon
• The next candidates: USC, Penn State, Michigan, Washington, Wisconsin. USC stands out due to Jaden Maiava’s second year with Lincoln Riley and a returning O-line.
• Penn State’s easy schedule could offer a “NASCAR up-against-the-wall” path to sneaking in.
• “If USC goes 2–2 [against OSU, Oregon, Indy, and Penn State], I think USC is gonna make the playoff.” – Doug [19:03]
• Bill is a bit lower on Penn State but has USC in his field.

5. The Value (and Pitfalls) of Returning Production & Transfers

• Transfer portal classes make a huge impact now; referencing last year’s success stories (Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Miami).
• Reviewing top transfer portal classes (“on3” and 247) can clarify which teams leap forward.
  • Indiana: No. 1 on3 transfer class
  • Teams like Texas Tech, Louisville, Notre Dame also rank highly
• “Sometimes the transfer stuff is actually staring you in the face if you’re willing to accept it.” – Doug [31:17]

6. Fun with “Out There” Picks

• Doug pushes for boldness in March; both reminisce about wild picks from last year and agree that fans should embrace high-variance predictions.
• “You do some crazy stuff in March, right? It’s okay to do crazy stuff in March?” – Doug [29:01]

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On avoiding groupthink:
  • “You should maybe try to swerve away from the groupthink at least a little bit.” – Bill [03:20]
• Doug on the SEC’s depth issue:
  • “Find me the third-best team in the SEC because there isn’t one.” – Doug [05:10]
• On Kentucky as a shock playoff pick:
  • “Is Kentucky in year one of Will Stein making the playoff…any crazier than Kurt Signetti making the playoff with Indiana in year one? No, it’s not any crazier.” – Doug [50:25]
  • “You need to be making the radio rounds in Kentucky. I even think you putting Kentucky in the playoff might get you on Finebaum.” – Bill [54:00]
• Wordle interlude:
  • “Sherrone Moore plays a lot of Wordle. What is going on? Sherrone, what’s your starting word?” – Doug [36:33]
  • “His starting word is ‘u up?’” – Bill [36:45]
    (running joke throughout the episode)
• On the necessity of being honest about wrong picks:
  • “We just want to be honest with you about how dumb we are.” – Doug [32:48]

Timestamps & Segment Highlights

| Time | Segment | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00 | Purpose of early picks & philosophy for way-too-early brackets | | 01:01 | Recap of last year's playoff picks; how picks fared | | 04:13 | Doug’s “theory of the case” – SEC/Big Ten power flip | | 06:49 | SEC schedule deep-dive; who could possibly beat Texas/Georgia| | 10:47 | Oklahoma's (and other SEC teams') daunting schedule | | 12:46 | Big Ten depth vs. SEC’s questionable 3rd team | | 16:02 | Big Ten round-robin cannibalization (schedule breakdown) | | 18:34 | USC as potential playoff linchpin; Jaden Maiava and Lincoln Riley| | 21:03 | Will Gary Patterson change USC’s fortunes as DC? | | 24:34 | Penn State’s “favorable” schedule & playoff shot | | 28:37 | Survey of Big Ten “next tier” and dark horses | | 31:31 | Using transfer portal classes to anticipate playoff leaps | | 32:48 | Reflecting on last year’s bad picks | | 36:03 | “Show us your phone” coaching jokes | | 39:55 | Bill’s 2026 Playoff Bracket Reveal | | 44:54 | Doug’s 2026 Playoff Bracket Reveal | | 47:52 | Louisville & Kentucky both as playoff picks: rationale | | 54:00 | The Kentucky “dark horse” explanation and reactions | | 56:11 | Group of 6/Group of 5 picks, including San Diego State | | 57:12 | Comparing both hosts’ brackets, where they differ and overlap| | 59:11 | Roster/returner analysis and closing notes |

2026 Playoff Picks: Side-by-Side Comparison

Bill’s Playoff Picks ([39:55])

• 1. Notre Dame
• 2. Texas (SEC Champ)
• 3. Oregon (Big Ten Champ)
• 4. Miami (ACC Champ)
• 5. Ohio State
• 6. Georgia
• 7. Texas Tech
• 8. Indiana
• 9. Oklahoma
• 10. USC
• 11. BYU
• 12. New Mexico (G6 Rep)

Noted: Considered Michigan, heavy on Big Ten, only two Big 12, three SEC.

Doug’s Playoff Picks ([44:54])

• 1. Texas
• 2. Georgia
• 3. Oregon
• 4. Notre Dame
• 5. Indiana
• 6. Ohio State
• 7. BYU
• 8. USC
• 9. Louisville
• 10. Penn State
• 11. Kentucky
• 12. San Diego State (G6 Rep)

Noted: Both hosts aligned on top 8 (except for Miami/Louisville). Doug’s “crazy pick” is Kentucky; Penn State sneaks in via scheduling; Louisville as a surprise ACC champ; San Diego State as G6.

Notable “Shocker” Picks and Reasoning

• Kentucky (Doug): Embracing the concept of a first-year coach (Will Stein) and transfer QB (Kenny Minchey) flipping the script—schedules an SEC “mid-tier” team that can surprise given overall conference weakness.
• Louisville (Doug): Jeff Brohm factor, manageable schedule, Lincoln Kienholz as a breakout QB.
• New Mexico (Bill): G6 pick—returning production, 9-win team last year, opportunity in Mountain West race.
• San Diego State (Doug): G6 pick—resume-building non-conference opportunities (UCLA, Toledo, JMU), plus "new" Pac-12 status could sway voters.

Wrap-Up

Doug and Bill urge listeners to approach early playoff predictions for what they are: snapshots in time that set the table for spring/summer analysis and fun debate. Their methods blend vibes, data, and a willingness to zag away from consensus (plus a few good jokes). Both agree that, barring unforeseen collapses, the 2026 playoff field is likeliest to be dominated by a cluster of Big Ten teams and a hyper-top-heavy SEC.

For Ohio State fans: The Buckeyes are default playoff picks in March; conversation will evolve as information on rosters, injuries, and depth charts emerges through spring ball.

Notable Quote to Close:
“We just want to be honest with you about how dumb we are. Right? That’s all. Is that not good podcasting?”
– Doug [32:48]

Check the full episode for a deeper dive into roster nuances, schedule debates, and upcoming Ohio State spring coverage.