Inside Julian Sayin's Heisman Trophy case, and why so many people are getting it wrong

Summary

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Podcast Summary: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk

Episode: Inside Julian Sayin's Heisman Trophy case, and why so many people are getting it wrong
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises and Bill Landis
Date: October 22, 2025
Producer: Blue Wire

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Overview

This episode tackles the growing debate over Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin’s place in the Heisman Trophy race amid skepticism from national media and Heisman straw polls. Hosts Doug Lesmerises and Bill Landis—veteran Ohio State insiders and Heisman voters—break down why Sayin's candidacy is more robust than the discourse suggests, why so many pundits "get it wrong," and how the Buckeyes’ team narrative and statistics intersect with Heisman history and current odds. With their trademark blend of big-picture analysis and blunt fan-first honesty, they advocate for Sayin as a legitimate, perhaps underappreciated, frontrunner.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Two Types of Heisman Arguments

(02:31 - 04:23)

• Doug & Bill describe the distinction between voting for the Heisman "right now" versus predicting who will win at season’s end.
• Bill asserts: “There's a difference between who you would vote for the Heisman today and then, like, who you think is going to be the Heisman winner at the end of the year.” (03:47, Bill Landis)
• The narrative matters—Heisman voting rewards the player who helps “tell the story of the season” and who performs on the championship stage.

2. The Importance of the Big Ten Championship

(04:23 - 07:54)

• Bill: “If Julian [Sayin] and Fernando Mendoza, their teams play for the Big Ten championship, the loser of that game is not winning the Heisman.” (04:23, Bill Landis)
• Doug notes the extra weight—if Sayin can end OSU’s losing streak vs Michigan as QB and win the Big Ten title, that’s a “pretty compelling piece of data.” (06:46, Doug Lesmerises)
• Losing to Michigan has killed prior OSU QB Heisman chances, but with the expanded playoff and new conference setups, the narrative could change.

3. Talent Stack at Ohio State and Its Effect

(09:08 - 13:19)

• Oddsmaker update: Julian Sayin (+400) behind Ty Simpson (Alabama) and Fernando Mendoza (Indiana).
• Both Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (WRs) are excellent, but split the vote—helping Sayin’s candidacy.
  • “They do sort of cancel each other out, but also at the same time boost Julian [Sayin].” (11:37, Doug Lesmerises)
• “If you have a great quarterback and two great receivers, the receivers cancel each other out and propel the quarterback.” (12:20, Bill Landis)

4. Why the National Perception is Skewed

(15:51 - 21:19)

• Indiana WRs are strong (Omar Cooper Jr., Elijah Surratt)—if people only credit Mendoza, they shortchange the WRs.
• Indiana’s balance: Top 20 rushing attack, but still less pass-dependent than OSU.
• Media straw polls from On3 and The Athletic grossly underrate Sayin (5th and 5th) compared to Mendoza (top 2).
  • “There's an Ohio State ain't played nobody disease plaguing the athletic’s national college football staff.” (19:04, Doug Lesmerises)
  • Sharp criticism of Southern-focused or bias-laden voters:
  • “Nobody knows what the hell they're talking about… in this particular circumstance… you do not know what the hell you are talking about. And frankly, it's a little embarrassing.” (21:19, Bill Landis)

5. Head-to-Head: Sayin vs. Mendoza

(21:19 - 25:57, 28:25 - 32:28)

• Bill presents PFF and traditional stats—Sayin and Mendoza are nearly identical statistically (TDs, yards, completion %), but Sayin’s overall PFF grade is higher.
• It makes no sense that Mendoza is #1 in straw polls while Sayin barely appears.
• Media seem enchanted by the “story” of Mendoza or Pavia (Vanderbilt) as underdogs, ignoring that Sayin’s transfer and rise is a story itself.

6. Schedule Strength, SEC Bias, and the ‘They Haven’t Played Anybody’ Trope

(32:28 - 34:49)

• Doug checks: Sayin has faced the best defenses (Texas #1 SP+, Minnesota top 20, Washington top 30).
• OSU’s “lack of marquee” games after Texas and Penn State is overblown.
  • “It's taking Miami losing for people to actually pay attention... but I don't think anyone's really bothering to take a look at what exactly Julian Saying's done or that… they're just starting to.” (25:04, Doug Lesmerises)
• Host frustration with SEC-centric Heisman voting:
  • “Other than On3's headquarters are in Nashville and you got a bunch of SEC lunkheads voting for On3.” (32:28, Bill Landis)

7. Betting Odds and Smart Wagers

(35:02 - 36:29)

• “You cannot bet Fernando Mendoza to win the Heisman unless you think Indiana is going to beat Ohio State…” (35:02, Bill Landis)
• OSU as Big Ten favorite, Sayin's Heisman odds solid; “Best quarterback on best team” remains the default winning profile.

8. Does Sayin Need a “Heisman Moment”?

(36:29 - 37:43)

• Doug: “Do you think [Sayin] can still win if he doesn’t have a Heisman Moment?”
• Bill: “The case is: He’s the most accurate quarterback in college football history for the undefeated, number one defending national champs. I think that’s enough.” (37:18, Bill Landis)

9. Heisman Precedents: QBs on Top Seeds

(40:15 - 44:00)

• Review of playoff-era “best team, best QB” results: In almost every scenario, if the QB is truly elite (not a “quarterback in name only”), he’s the Heisman front-runner.
• If Arch Manning were doing exactly what Sayin’s doing at Texas, “there would not even be a conversation.” (44:03, Bill Landis)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The Heisman helps tell the story of the season. It’s not just statistical… the Heisman winner should help you tell the story of that season.” (04:47, Bill Landis)
• “If you're the quarterback of the undefeated number one defending national champs… that’s a story to be.” (29:00, Bill Landis)
• “Can you believe that the Indiana quarterback and the Vanderbilt quarterback are Heisman candidates? No, I can’t.” (29:23, Bill Landis)
• “There’s an ‘Ohio State ain’t played nobody’ disease plaguing The Athletic’s national college football staff.” (19:04, Doug Lesmerises)
• “If Arch Manning had Julian Sayin’s exact statistics and Texas was undefeated number one, there would not even be a conversation.” (44:03, Bill Landis)
• “I don’t think this is unreasoned anger. First, it’s not anger, because it doesn’t matter, but it’s frustration about perception, which is kind of my brand.” (46:27, Bill Landis)
• “We need to fight the good fight against perception, and Julian Sayin is not being discussed properly.” (46:47, Doug Lesmerises)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:31 — Why Julian Sayin should be a Heisman frontrunner
• 04:23 — Big Ten title and the Heisman outcome
• 09:08 — Betting odds and how OSU’s receivers affect Sayin’s candidacy
• 15:51 — Indiana’s receivers and Mendoza’s case
• 19:04 — "Ohio State ain’t played nobody" and national bias
• 21:19 — Stat comparison: Sayin vs. Mendoza + Media critique
• 28:25 — Deeper dive: passing stats and Heisman “types” of cases
• 32:28 — Schedule strength, SEC bias, and voting trends
• 35:02 — Smart bets for Heisman futures
• 36:29 — Does Sayin NEED a “Heisman moment”?
• 40:15 — History lesson: top-seeded QBs in Heisman voting
• 44:03 — “If Arch Manning did this at Texas…” argument

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Tone & Style

• Direct, irreverent, passionate.
• Part fan advocacy, part data-driven debate.
• Not afraid to challenge national media or conventional narratives.

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For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

• Main takeaway: Julian Sayin’s Heisman profile is much stronger than the national narrative admits; skepticism is rooted in media bias, outdated perceptions, and underestimation of Ohio State’s story and schedule.
• **If you want the real conversation, scan the segments above and listen for sharp quotes around 19:00, 21:19, and 44:00 for the hosts’ most unfiltered arguments.
• Summary: If Ohio State keeps winning and Sayin’s efficiency continues, he’s a top contender regardless of current straw poll narratives. The hosts urge fans and voters to see through the noise and give Sayin’s story its due.

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Transcript

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[Bill Landis]

Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. We're here to talk About Julian San as a Heisman candidate, Bill Landis. Why are we doing this?

[Doug LeMaris]

Because he is one. And people need to start. Need to start putting that. Putting his name out there when they're talking about who's in contention. We're past September, we're into October, we're almost into November, and he's playing, like, one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Maybe the best quarterback in the country.

[Bill Landis]

And again, like, a lot of this stuff, it's like, I'm intrigued by the perception of what is happening. What is happening is one thing, because, like, here's the thing. It's like, we know what's happening. Like, we can. We watch football. We know what. But it's like, then it's like, oh, this is what other people are saying about what's happening. And then it's like, okay, time to get out some stats. So let's run through this first. Let's set the table for this. And by the way, we do have a story we're writing about this. I don't. We're not gonna, like, reveal our ballots, but we're like, on our sub [e-mail] we'll have, like. Because we are Heisman voters. You get a Heisman email the other day?

[Doug LeMaris]

I did, yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. Did you respond to it yet? I didn't respond to it yet.

[Doug LeMaris]

I responded, yeah. Yeah. I think last year or two years ago, I forgot to respond to it, and then it was like, yeah, the time to get Heisman ballots, and I didn't have mine, so. But they got it squared away.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

So we are still Heisman balloters. So there's a difference between who you would vote for the Heisman today and then, like, who you think is going to be the Heisman winner at the end of the year. And on our sub stack, we're going to tell you both. We're telling you both those things, but we want to have, like, the conversation around it. And I understand it's a different conversation, is it not? And so I don't want to yell at people for a thing, but there's, like, a particular thing that I want to talk about that affects the who's actually going to win it conversation at the end of the year that I. I guess people aren't taking into account because that's not what they're trying to take into account, but it's kind of. Should I just say what it is instead of, like, talking around it?

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah. What is the thing?

[Bill Landis]

Tell people. Yeah, it's that if you think Ohio State and Indiana are going to play for the Big Ten championship, if you think Fernando Mendoza is going to win the Heisman, you think Indiana is going to beat Ohio State? Because I'm telling you, if Julian saying and Fernando Mendoza, their teams play for the Big Ten championship, the loser of that game is not winning the Heisman.

[Doug LeMaris]

And the. My shorthand was like, the winner probably is.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. So it's just like. So Fernando Mendoza is kind of like everybody's Heisman pick right now. And I get like, we can also argue, like, should he actually be the Heisman pick right now? But that's a no doubt about it. Like, I guess that's not what anybody is saying, but it is actually the conversation. Because my whole. I only ever say two things about the Heisman. One is it's this. It helps tell the story of the season. It's not just statistical. It's not just like, mvp, but like, it matters to me. It's like, it's when you think about a call and you look back on a college football season, I think the Heisman winner should help you tell the story of that season. And then everybody's like, it says most outstanding, and then I say, go live in a hole. So I think that. And then the other one is, is that it's not a race. It's sort of like an invitational to, like, get to the card. Like, get to the boxing card at the end of the year. Because whatever happens in the first 12 weeks can change in an instance on conference, on an instant. On conference championship weekend. I always go Back to like 2A tongo by low. I basically had the Heisman wrapped up and then Kyler Murray went nuts in the Big 12 title game on a weekend when, when Tua did not play well and the SEC championship, Tyler stole it and stole it in a runaway. And so you can't, you can't win it before then, right? I like, like, no matter because, like, C.J. stroud had it won through 11 regular season weeks in 2021. And then Ohio State lost to Michigan even though I had huge stats. But the bigger part of that is, yes, you lose to Michigan, but you also lose the opportunity to have the stage at your conference championship game to make a final closing argument. So it's a story of the season. And you've got to be. You've got to be on the stage at the end of the year. And if you're not, man, you better have a compelling case. So you're looking for guys who are going to be on the stage and guess who we think is going to be on the stage at the end of the year? Julian saying the Ohio State quarterback.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yes. On the stage but and also I probably, probably is the right word with a Michigan win or no like because that, that Ohio State can lose to Michigan and still go to the Big Ten championship game. But like if you want to talk about season narrative too, like Ohio State ending its losing streak to Michigan with Julian saying a quarterback would like. It'd be a pretty compelling piece of data. I think that would help Julian saying in the conversation.

[Bill Landis]

I think that's exactly. I think that's a great point. And I also think, I think I've said, I think I said it in the last 10 days. An Ohio State player is not going to win the Heisman if they lose to Michigan. But actually if Ohio State would lose to Michigan but still make the Big Ten championship game and then in the Big Ten championship game that Heisman contender goes crazy. I actually maybe think they could win it because again it could.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

It's been the punitive nature for Ohio State in this four game losing streak to Michigan is you've lost to Michigan. That's your rival. It's the season defining thing. But it also knocked Ohio State out of the Big Ten championship game.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Don't get the shot at redemption and that you're closing. What I think is a hundred percent true is your closing argument cannot be a loss to Michigan. That is true. If it turns out it's not your closing argument then okay. But it doesn't matter if you threw for 396 yards and four touchdowns. If you lost to Michigan and you didn't play another game before the Heisman boats were in.

[Doug LeMaris]

I agree with that. And like I think I was thinking about Justin Fields a little bit in 2019 because you know he did beat Michigan and like had actually kind of like a cool moment in, in beating Michigan.

[Bill Landis]

Yes.

[Doug LeMaris]

And then Ohio State 1 went on and won the Big Ten title or not. Yeah, the Big Ten championship that year.

[Bill Landis]

But.

[Doug LeMaris]

That was the Joe Burrow year. So it's like you weren't. Yeah, he wasn't, he wasn't overcoming what Joe Burrow did. It's like it's not a guarantee that checking those boxes for an Ohio State quarterback gets you there. But there's also like there's not a Joe Burrow out there this year to, to worry about. And I don't think Justin Field had votes taken away from him because his one teammate finished Fourth and the other finished sixth. I think that year, which I guess is possible with Julian saying. But I think the more important factor is that there's not some guy having a God year above him like Joe. Like Joe burrow did in 2019.

[Bill Landis]

No, I agree. I think. And I did this exercise a couple years ago. I think it's a worthwhile exercise exercise to do again. Like if you could. The playoff era is a very good place to draw a line. But if you. You could run through like the 20 best Heisman candidates of the Playo era or something like that. And for instance, like I think the year Caleb Williams won, I didn't think he was very good Heisman candidate. I agree, because he had the statistical profile. But his team lost the conference championship game. Like his closing argument was a loss in the conference championship game and there was just nobody else to vote for. But actually I think like 2019, Justin Fields is a better. Has a better Heisman case than actual Heisman winner Caleb Williams and whatever year that was. It's just that Justin Fields was up against Joe Burrow. Right. So that. But he even finished third that year, right? Because wasn't. Yeah, but I think, I think like the top three that year are all better than Caleb Williams because they were quarterbacks of winning teams with great stats and everything. And Caleb. Caleb Williams like his team didn't get it done. So. All right, let's run through where things stand right now. Fan. Dual odds Favorite Ty Simpson +320. The Alabama quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana quarterback is +340. Julian sand is the third favorite at +400. So they are very tightly grouped. And then there's a drop to Marcel Reed, the Texas A m quarterback at plus 750. Diego Padia, the Vanderbilt quarterback at plus 800. Gunner Stockton, the Georgia quarterback at plus 1100. Dante Moore. Once upon a time people were really on that like correctly. So I think plus 1400. The Oregon quarterback. And then the first non quarterback is Jeremiah Love from Notre Dame at 20 to 1. Jeremiah Smith from Ohio State, the receiver at 41. And I have had people ask like, what about Carnell Tate? Like we had a conversation on our Monday around the shoe show bill about Carnell Tate. And I think like the first comment about that was like, what about Carnel Tate? That's a Heisman candidate. It's like he doesn't even lead his team in receiving yards. So it's like of all the great things that you can say about Carnell Tate, I mean, to have like a. Could Carnell Tate actually win the Heisman discussion. I mean, I don't even want to say what it would require. I think everybody knows what it would require. It's the devonte Smith kind of thing. Like, so, like that. Short of that, like, it's not gonna happen. And it's actually like, what Cornell Tate is doing is probably ending Jeremiah Smith's Heisman candidacy. Jeremiah Smith had the. The preseason hype that elevated him, and then Carnell Tate is cutting into that, but not in a way that actually is going to make Carnell Tate get to New York.

[Doug LeMaris]

No, I think my. My. Where I landed on that was they're both so good, Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, that they do sort of cancel each other out, but also at the same time boost Julian saying. Because it doesn't. It turns out that the Ohio State's passing offense is just like Jeremiah's down there somewhere. Right.

[Bill Landis]

And.

[Doug LeMaris]

And actually it's just a very good passing offense that leads the country in passing success rate, led by an incredibly precise, accurate quarterback that I think is starting to captivate people with. With the way that he throws the ball. So it's like. It actually all has sort of like, come together in a way that I wasn't sure if Julian Saying could propel past Jeremiah Smith, but I actually think he has because of Carnell Tate's rise, if that makes sense.

[Bill Landis]

I think it does make sense, because I think if you have, like, a great quarterback and a great receiver, it can be difficult to try to figure it out. If you have a great quarterback and two great receivers, the receivers cancel each other out and propel the quarterback. And it makes it clear, like Ohio State's Heisman candidate is Julian saying.

[Doug LeMaris]

Which I guess is not dissimilar from, like, the C.J. stroud conversation. Right. Because he had excellent receivers. There was a time where I was like. I think I had talked myself into Garrett Wilson as Ohio State's Heisman Trophy candidate, but he didn't get there. C.J. stroud did. Because they also had.

[Bill Landis]

So I guess the actual question is, are we sure it propels? Are we a hundred percent short propels, or can there be a. Well, that quarterback's receivers are so good. Any quarterback would be that good. Well, if he was throwing the Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, I don't think.

[Doug LeMaris]

It propels you to a win, but I think it. It elevates him to, like, you're trying to figure out who's the Heisman candidate on this team.

[Bill Landis]

Okay.

[Doug LeMaris]

Elevates the quarterback to that position.

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[Bill Landis]

So this is also like if it would come down and this is strange, we'll get to the stats here in a second. But like, if it would come down to a Fernando Mendoza from Indiana, Julian sand from Ohio State, quarterback conversation beyond. I mean, the only thing that matters is you can't have two winners of that Big Ten championship game and the winning quarterback is going to be. Is going to have the edge in the Heisman race.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

The other thing is Indiana also has two excellent receivers.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yep.

[Bill Landis]

So, like that argument. And that to me, I think is more about applying that argument to right now where Fernando Mendoza and the straw polls that we'll get to in a second is just so far above Julian Saying and the stats are similar. And also I think to like, be like, nope, it's got to be Fernando Mendoza. Definitely ahead of Julian saying. Actually, I think short changes. Omar Cooper Jr. And Elijah Surratt at Indiana, who, I mean, who are Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate? Like, I, we understand that they aren't as good as them, but they're like next, they're probably the number two receiver combo in the country. And if you think they're only good because Fernando Mendoza is elevating them, that's wrong.

[Doug LeMaris]

I think that's right. I'm trying to look up. The other thing that you have to. I, I don't think you have to consider, but I guess I could see people considering with Mendoza is that Indiana has a really good rushing attack. Indiana is 13th in the country in rushing yards per game in like top 20 in yards per carry. And like in their game against Illinois where they blew Illinois doors off, they ran for like 330 yards, whatever it was. So like the passing offense, I think is. Is what makes Indiana go. But there is balance there that Julian Saying is not the beneficiary of at Ohio State.

[Bill Landis]

Right. So let's do straw polls because this is a reflection. It's not necessarily all Heisman voters, but it's college football. Folks on three does one every week. Here's their Heisman poll. One, Ty Simpson, quarterback, Alabama. Two, Fernando Mendoza, quarterback, Indiana. Three. Diego Pavia, quarterback, Vanderbilt. Four. Marcel Reed, quarterback, Texas A&M. Five. Julian say in quarterback, Ohio State. Six, Dante Moore, quarterback, Oregon. Seven. Haynes King, quarterback, Georgia Tech. Eight. Gunner Stockton, quarterback, Geor Georgia. Nine. Ruben Bane, defensive lineman, Miami. And 10, Jeremiah Love, running back, Notre Dame. So Julian San is fifth, Fernando Mendoza is second. And then if we go to the Athletic and their straw poll, Mendoza won Way number one far and away with 14 of 22 first place votes. Ty Simpson, second with six first place votes, Diego Pavia, third with three first place votes Jeremiah Love fourth with one first place vote. Am I looking at the most recent one? God, I am. Julian saying fifth out of 22 votes he got one second place vote and four third place votes. So Julian. So Diego, Fernando Mendoza has four first place votes and everybody voted him at least in the top three. Julian saying five of 22 people voted him in the top three.

[Doug LeMaris]

There's a, there's an Ohio State ain't played nobody disease plaguing the athletics national college football staff. And I know all really like I.

[Bill Landis]

Can you, can you get them us on the show? Listen, we have to set people straight. And no offense, but nobody knows what the hell they're talking about. And that applies to every college football show that you watch and listen to. That isn't us. Nobody knows what the hell they're talking about. And the idea. Because like what is the argument because let's go to the stats now and again. What? It doesn't make me angry that Fernando Mendoza like is perceived as a better Heisman candidate than than Julian saying. It makes me angry that Fernando Mendoza gets 14 first place votes and all 22 people vote for him. And Julian saying is on 5 of 22 ballots when actually it's a coin flip. Let's go to the PFF stats. Just quarterback overall rating for the 68 Power Conference teams. Julian Saiyan is first. Fernando Mendoza is 14th. And now these are just stats. Julian saying 19 touchdowns, three picks. Fernanda Mendoza 21 touchdowns, two picks. Julian saying 1873 passing yards. Fernanda Mendoza 1755. Julian saying 80 completions. Fernanda Mendoza 72.7 completions. Yards per attempt each are 9.6 a a dot which is how far you're throwing the ball down the field. Fernanda Mendoza 9.2 yards per throw. Julian saying 8.4 yards per throw. Adjusted completion percentage taking into account drops. Julian saying 85.5. Fernanda Mendoza 79.5. Big time throws. Julian saying 10. Fernando Mendoza Seven turnover worthy plays three each. Landis, that is not a statistical comparison between one guy who's the heavy number one guy in the athletic straw poll and another guy who's getting practically no votes. And by the way, they are the two quarterbacks of the undefeated number one and number two teams in the country. Yeah, no offense. The people of the. At the, at the Athletic in this particular instance have no idea what they're doing. I don't. I don't call them all and play it. Put it in a text message. You can put little sound clips in a text message now. I don't know who's voting in the thing. There are wonderful spectacular human beings and college football writers over there, Ralph Russo and Bruce Feldman and Stuart Mandel and Chris Vanini and David Ubben and a million people that I am not naming right now. And I am just saying to all of those wonderful people in this particular circumstance, you do not know what the hell you are talking about. And frankly, it's a little embarrassing. And I could I, if I had seven minutes on a podcast with you, I would have you changing your ballot, I guarantee it. Because the thing is, you're wrong. Like it's not like, well, no, it's just wrong because again it's like well, but Indiana did this to Oregon and Julie and Ohio State did this to Texas. Right? And but the Texas defense was really good. That was Julian Sands for a start. But also now we're underestimating everything else Ohio State's done against Minnesota and Washington and Illinois and acting like they haven't played anybody. And yes, I get it. Fernanda Mendoza and Indiana had a great win on the road at Oregon. That's not a overwhelming number one to barely getting any votes distance. I'm just, no, I don't think Fernando Mendoza shouldn't be one. I'm just saying Julian saying should be, not be struggling to get on ballots.

[Doug LeMaris]

No, I agree with that. And I think too like it wasn't Fernando Mendoza had like he, he, I think he threw for 215 yards against Oregon and he had and most of the game winning touchdown drive was him throwing, including the game winning touchdown. He threw a bad pick and he rebounded and he like drove me on the field and won in the game. But it wasn't like he threw it all over Oregon. He didn't have whatever 300 yards and three touchdowns. And then I'm not trying to say he played poorly. He went on the road in a really tough place to win and won a game. That's great and he should get credit for that. And frankly because of that and given his statistical profile probably should be first right now. But I don't think he should be. I don't think he should be an overwhelming first to your point. But that's like the thing I saw I wrote about Julian saying this weekend like that that was the thing. I guess I, I just the right way to say it is like the thing I came away like most concerned about sort of on his behalf as he tries to do this. Like he is getting penalized because his team's too good, but he is Not. They don't trail. They don't. They don't. They may not trail again the rest of the year. Right. He's thrown 15 passes like losing. And it was three nothing against Ohio and three nothing against Washington.

[Bill Landis]

Right, but also, but then, but isn't Indiana just as good?

[Doug LeMaris]

Yes, but they were losing to Oregon.

[Bill Landis]

So now like, now we're like, in that. Now we're in like bizarro universe where it's like. Well, the reason that Fernando Mendoza is perceived as a better Heisman candidate than Julian sand is that his team almost lost. It's like, oh, oh, oh, okay, great. They also almost lost to Iowa, so.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah, that's true.

[Bill Landis]

What? There's no. And I've always said this. I mean, I've been talking about this kind of stuff for 20 years. I've always said there's no way to boost your Heisman case that's better than almost losing to Iowa. That's the magic pixie dust right there. Almost lose. Daiwa, Shoot to the top. And this comes across as like, it is nothing against Fernando Mendoza. I have not filled out my ballot for our little thing that we're gonna do, but I might have Fernando Mendoza first. Honestly, like right now.

[Doug LeMaris]

Sure.

[Bill Landis]

For the right now part of it, I might have Fernando Mendoza first. I just don't understand. And like the betting odds aren't reflecting this gap. The betting odds are like a three way toss up right now between Ty Simpson, Fernando Mendoza and Julian Saying, the quarterbacks of Alabama, Indiana and Ohio State. I get that. I'm not disputing the betting odds. I have no idea why these straw polls are this way. Other than those people have no fricking idea what they're doing.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah, I think I just like, generally we've had these conversations like the country's been a little slow to catch up to how good actually Ohio State is. It's taking like Miami losing for people to like actually pay attention to what's happening in Columbus, which I guess is fine. And Ohio State doesn't care because they're going to get to the playoff and that's all that matters to them. But I don't think anyone's really bothering to take a look at like what exactly Julian saying's done or that or maybe like they're just starting to.

[Bill Landis]

Right.

[Doug LeMaris]

And they haven't played. Like they played the marquee came against Texas and then Texas like didn't hold up its end of the bargain. The juice has been sucked out of the game. Coming up against Penn State in two weeks, right. Or whatever it is. Week and a half. That's. I don't think that's something that ultimately will hinder Julian saying from winning, but I do think it holds him back from being the guy leading the conversation at the moment.

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[Bill Landis]

Passing yards per game in FBS, Julian Saying is 17th with 267.4 passing yards per game. Fernando Mendoza is 33rd with 250.7 passing yards per game. And the rating that CFB Stats uses, Fernanda Mendoza is first. Julian Saying is second. So Julian Saying has a better completion percentage and more yards. He's thrown like, that's the other thing too. It's like sometimes you just have like, people going nuts. Statistically, Julian Saying's thrown for more yards.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah, I think Mendoza has more touchdowns.

[Bill Landis]

Right? He has two more touchdowns, two more.

[Doug LeMaris]

Touchdowns, and one interception.

[Bill Landis]

But like, so there's nobody like Sawyer Robertson for Baylor is leading the nation with 339 passing yards per game. Nobody's saying Sawyer Robertson should win the Heisman. Right. Jade Maeva from usc is at 311. This is not a Jade Maeva case. Right. Josh Hoover from TCU is, is at 303. That's fifth. Nobody's making that case. Joey Aguilar from Tennessee is 278. So, like, nobody's making a statistical case. That's the thing that's like, weird to me is sometimes it's like, well, someone's making this type of case and another person's making this type of case. And then you as a voter have to decide which type of case is more persuasive to you. And then when one's a running back, one's a receiver, one's a quarterback, one's a defensive player, it's all very different kind of things, right? As I always say, I voted Banditau first on my Heisman ballot the Johnny Manziel year, because I thought Manta Tail was the quarterback of the defense for Notre Dame. Notre Dame was a defense first team and they were playing for the national championship and Texas A and M wasn't. So I thought of him as a quarterback and I voted him first. He finished second. The Fernando Mendoza case and the Julian sand case are the exact same case. You're a high level, skilled quarterback of an undefeated team. So then that it's this far of a gap is like, I have no idea what the gap is. And I do think it's an underdog trap that people cannot help themselves. But to vote for Diego Pavia from Vanderbilt and Fernando Vendoza for Indiana, because they're the story. And now I'm. I'm saying that as a guy who votes sometimes on the story, like, man, and those are great underdog stories. Can you believe that the Indiana quarterback and the Vanderbilt quarterback are Heisman candidates? No, I can't. What an unbelievable story of the season. Let's go check into this stupid boring story in Columbus. What's the story there? Well, you know, they're undefeated, number one. They're the reigning national champs. They're trying to go back to back for the first time in Ohio State history. And the quarterback is a second year guy. He was a five star recruit who went to Alabama because of Nick Saban. The Nick Saban retired and then transferred to Ohio State and he showed up here and he won the starting quarterback job and he's doing this as a first year starter which neither Diego Pavia nor Fernando Mendoza are first year starters. So I don't know, is that interesting to anybody? Is that a story to be the first year starting quarterback of the undefeated defending national championship or we just, we are too in love with guys who transferred from Cala New Mexico State. I'm like, we can't get away from that. So I, and again, like, I'm not saying I'm probably going to have Fernando Mendoza and Diego Pavia on my vat, on my ballot. I'm just saying like, okay, and if you're voting for Ty Simpson, what is your Ty Simpson case? Because Ty Simpson and Julian Saying are exactly the same. Their first year starting quarterbacks, Ty Simpson's two years older, but their first year starting quarterbacks at two blue bloods, except one of them lost Florida State and one didn't. And by the way, Julian's saying statistical profile is better. So like, I like, how is Ty Simpson, how are you voting if that ty Simpson is first in the On3 straw poll and Julian saying is fifth. It's inexplicable. Other than On3's headquarters are in Nashville and you got a bunch of SEC lunkheads voting for on three. And we know people working on three tell them that too.

[Doug LeMaris]

I think their entire national staff is Southern based. I think.

[Bill Landis]

It'S not personal, it's based on this vote that I think they're SEC lunkheads. That's all. I don't think they're bad people. I think in this particular instance their SEC lunkheadedness is making them vote poorly.

[Doug LeMaris]

No, I agree. And I wanted to check myself too because like I feel so like, like I said, I mentioned I wrote the story. So I just went to like look at the defenses. All these guys have played against. And again, it's just me picking a analytics ranking and using that, you can use a bunch of different ones. I use SP plus, which is who's proprietor works for espn. Of all those guys who are like the quarterbacks are the best odds saying Stockton, Simpson, Mendoza, Moore, Reed, Pavia, on average the best defense any of those guys has faced is saying because he faced number one Texas, which is still the number one defense in the country by SP plus Minnesota actually has a top 20 defense by SP plus and Washington has a top 30 defense by SP plus and he's the only one of those guys who hasn't played a defense outside of the top 100. If you exclude FCS teams because they've all played FCS teams or will play FCS teams.

[Bill Landis]

And it's one of those. If there are voters who are holding like, well, Julian saying didn't have a huge game against Texas. They won a low scoring defensive game 14 7.

[Doug LeMaris]

Right.

[Bill Landis]

And then Texas turned out not to be what we thought. But as you said, not defensively. Like, defensively Texas is still good, right? So Ty Simpson against Florida State was 23 of 43. So like barely 50 completions for 254 yards and two touchdowns and they lost to Florida State. So it's like if you're dinging Julian saying for the Texas game, it's like, well, aren't you digging Ty Simpson for actually losing? But now we get back into, well, but Ohio State hasn't played anybody because nobody respects the middle of the Big Ten and Alabama just went through Georgia and Missouri and Tennessee and all these teams that we're supposed to think are good in Vanderbilt, right? And so like I'm supposed to be super impressed by Ty Simpson beating Vanderbilt, but like Julian saying beating Washington isn't supposed to matter, right? So that, and that goes back to the fight that we are just constantly having about the way the middle of the mid SEC is viewed compared to the middle of the Big Ten.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah, but I think I, I think all this is true and we're right to call it out. But I, I also, I am not fearful of any of it holding him back in the end. I think it's holding him back now.

[Bill Landis]

So I think that's right. I think to get the Ohio State quarterback at plus 400 in the Heisman odds right now is pretty good. Like if you think Ohio State's going to stay good, this is a pretty good bet, right? Because Ohio State to win the national championship is plus 260. Julian saying to win the Heisman is plus 400. So you cannot bet Fernando Mendoza to win the Heisman, unless you think Indiana is going to beat Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game. Otherwise you're setting your money on fire.

[Doug LeMaris]

And if you, for some reason, Ohio State's not going to get there, but I don't.

[Bill Landis]

And then it's like, if you think that. So conference winners, Ohio State's -155, Indiana's -190. It's like, so, like, right, like, that's. Ohio State has much better odds to win the Big Ten, but Indiana's quarterback has better odds to win the Heisman. That doesn't make sense.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah, yeah.

[Bill Landis]

We're just telling you, like, if you want to bet it, like, you have to think about this, how to bet it. So if it comes down to Alabama runs the table, wins the SEC with Ty Simpson, and then it's the Indiana versus Ohio State quarterback. Whoever wins that game, that's probably where your Heisman winner is coming from as it stands right now. So just make sure you're thinking about it the right way, because do you believe that best quarterback of the best team is still the, the most obvious Heisman case?

[Doug LeMaris]

Yes. Yeah. Yeah, yeah. So right now, sorry to cut you off. Do you think. I don't think this is going to happen, but it's certainly within the realm of possibility, based off how things have gone so far, that Ohio State really is just not tested until it gets to the playoff. Like, it just kind of controls every game and wins every game. And I'm not saying they blow everybody off the field, but, like, they're never, they're never like in the fourth quarter in a dog fight trying to win a game. But if that's the case, then you're talking about, like, team excellence combined with like, record precision from Julian Saying. Like, I, I guess what I'm asking is like, do you think saying can still win it if he doesn't have a, like, quote unquote Heisman moment where, like, his team is down or his team needs him to really make a play and he goes out and makes it?

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I, I, I think if Ohio State's 13 and oh, and his completion percentage sets the record, which at the moment. Right. It's bo nicks at 77 point something from 2023. So if he's at 78 or above and like, that's the case. The case is he's the most accurate quarterback in college football history for the undefeated number one defending national champs. I think that's enough.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah, so do I.

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[Bill Landis]

So the history of like Best Quarter the quarterback on the Best team. I tried to go through this really quick. The one seeds in the playoff, what was their quarterback in the Heisman race? So 2014 Bama was the 1 seed. Amari Cooper was their Heisman candidate that year because their quarterback was a linebacker. So Amari Cooper finished third in the Heisman. 2015 Clemson was the 1 seed. Desean Watson finished third in the Heisman. That was the first quarterback in the Heisman rankings. Derrick Henry won that year as the Alabama running back. 2016 Bama was the 1 seed, but it was Jalen Hurts was a true freshman quarterback and like his stats weren't that great and he was a runner and a thrower and like it just wasn't going to happen that way. 2017 Kelly Bryant was the Clemson quarterback when Clemson was the 1 seed and like nobody was going to give the the Heisman to Kelly Bryant. So like there's just some weird ones in here. But it's like is Julian saying Kelly Bryant is Julian saying like freshman Jalen Hurts the same year that Lamar Jackson existed? Like is that's what's happening. Why Julian saying is not the Heisman leader right now? No, he's not Kelly Bryant and I don't see Lamar Jackson the next year. Bama. 20182 was the number one seed in the playoff. Tua Tonga, Violoa was the was the Heisman leader going into conference championship weekend. It didn't play great and Kyler Murray stole it from him. 2019 Joe Burrow, LSU is the 1 seed. Joe Burrow wins the Heisman. So that matches up. 2020 Mac Jones, the quarterback for number one seed Alabama finishes third because his receiver won the Heisman. Devonte Smith because they had two great receivers and one got hurt. And so then every throw went to one receiver and then that's how the receiver wins. But it doesn't happen that way when you have two receivers. 2021 Alabama is the 1 seed. Bryce Young won the Heisman. 2022 Georgia's the 1 seed. Stetson Bennett finished I think fourth in the Heisman that year. And that's like Stetson Bennett like, you know, probably should have finished higher. 2023 Michigan's the 1 seed. JJ McCarthy finishes 10th because that's not a quarterback led team. Right. Blake Corn finished ninth that year as a running back. So like this is. Nobody's arguing that Julian saying to this Ohio State team is the same as JJ McCarthy to that Michigan team, right? Nobody's making that argument. Are they? No. And then 2024 last year or seed and Dylan Gabriel finished third and was the first quarterback behind Travis Hunter and Ash and Genti. So like it's still the best case. And they're just. There are really no examples of. Our quarterback is actually really accomplished and people know he's good. He's not some weird true freshman. He's not some sort of like stopgap, Blake Sims, Kelly Bryant kind of guy. And we're the one seed and he's not like first in the Heisman discussion among quarterbacks. Like, there's no.

[Doug LeMaris]

Harrison was never a 1C with Trevor Lawrence.

[Bill Landis]

In 20. Let me see, 14, 15, 16, 17. I think they were the 2 seed that year.

[Doug LeMaris]

Okay. That's probably the closest though of like your scenario. Right.

[Bill Landis]

But he didn't start the year as a starter. Like, like Trevor Lawrence as a true freshman didn't become the starter until like week four. So. And then they won the national championship. But like at the, at the time when the Heisman voting was happening going into the playoff. Yeah. Like, no matter how good he was, you're not going to win the Heisman if you're not the opening day starter.

[Doug LeMaris]

And 19. They weren't. 19 was the burrow year. And then.

[Bill Landis]

Right. And he finished second year is actually it. Yeah.

[Doug LeMaris]

Covered year. You were like on the, like Trevor Lawrence should be a Heisman finalist like just because he's earned it for his career kind of thing. Right?

[Bill Landis]

Yes.

[Doug LeMaris]

20. 20. Yeah. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

So anyway, like nobody with nobody and like he's a five star. He's the number one quarterback recruit in his class.

[Doug LeMaris]

He was the perfect quarterback prospect before Quinn Ewers was.

[Bill Landis]

And he's, he's a, he's Arch Manning a year behind. And if Arch Manning was having Julian say in season and Texas was undefeated number one, they would shut down. He would have every vote. That's a fact. If Arch Manning.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Had Julian Sands exact statistics and Texas was undefeated number one, there would not even be a conversation.

[Doug LeMaris]

That's how you would get the Heisman to move the ceremony because they would just move it to this week and give it to him now.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. We're giving Arch the Heisman during his bye week.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

So like that's the thing. And it'd be like. But what about Fernando Mendoza and what about Diego Pavia? Everybody would like, those are tremendous stories. It will be an honor for them to go to New York and watch Arch Manning become the first unanimous Heisman Trophy winner. Congratulations to Diego and Fernando on their second and third place finishes.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Fact.

[Doug LeMaris]

Absolutely. Yes.

[Bill Landis]

Get the athletic guys on here. Get them all on at once. Let's have a 22 person Zoom call so I can just berate everybody be for their incompetent Heisman straw poll that I'm sure they spent three minutes on. But it's like their editors like, hey guys, you got to get straw pole ballot. And it's like, I don't know. Diego Pavia, he did a Heisman pose. Is it Diego Pavia? It's not a personal attack. I'm just telling you, you're terrible at this. This.

[Doug LeMaris]

He's got a Heisman pose on him. He could do it. I know he does.

[Bill Landis]

You, you are his, you are his personality consultant. Yeah, because like you, you can see it bubbling up, but he just. It a little more.

[Doug LeMaris]

A little more. Yeah. I could tell the one, the one deep ball that he threw, the Jeremiah Smith against Wisconsin. He like, he launched it and then like started like walking off the field like, like a putter, like a newsley just like sunk it, like, and just like, like just starts walking toward the hole. Yeah. And then like it was like he actually pulled the string a little bit and Jeremiah didn't catch it, but it was like I. That was the moment where we might have gotten a little something if that, if that pass was complete.

[Bill Landis]

Oh, okay. Oh, that's good. Okay. All right. So. So it's in there somewhere. Apparently the people who, who vote for the Heisman mid season need some of that somehow.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yes.

[Bill Landis]

So I just. It's like, it's like you're playing a game tomorrow. Do you want Diego Pavia or do you want Julian saying. I'm just asking.

[Doug LeMaris]

Is it depends. Well, you might not be able to. Is it a 22 and underly? Because then you can't use Pavia.

[Bill Landis]

Is it a rec league? Is it a 30 plus rec league at the local Y then, then you can use Diego Pavia because he is the best 30 year old quarterback in America. Okay. I don't think, I don't think this is unreasoned anger. It's. First, it's not anger because it doesn't matter, but it's frustration about perception, which is kind of my brand.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah. No, I think we need to fight the good fight against perception and joy. Insane is not being discussed properly.

[Bill Landis]

Correct. Okay, that's good. We appreciate you guys being here.

[Doug LeMaris]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

All right. We have a bunch of stuff coming this week. Make sure you sure you stay tuned to this YouTube channel. Make sure you stay tuned to our podcast feeds. And if you want to go check out our substack Bill and Doug osu.substack.com we'll share our current Heisman ballots and what we would project for the end of the year and let you know how we're thinking. And. And there's like a 25 chance that my Heisman ballot will be Fernando Mendoza, Diego Pavia, Ty Simpson. Because that's just kind of how I roll sometimes. And I'd be like, yell at myself. I probably won't do that. But if I, yeah, I'm gonna sit down and do it right now. God, I hope I don't come to that conclusion because I've got to be true to myself. And I'm like, man, you know what, I'll tell you what, this Ty Simpson case, I can't get away from it. I can't get away from it. But I don't think I will do that because I did see an NFL person that I respect talking about Ty simpson as possible QB1 in this draft right now. And I'm just so tired of having mid SEC quarterbacks jam down my throat. And last year, I don't think Carson Beck last year and Garrett Nussmeier this year just. And does anyone talk about Garrett Nessmeyer's number one pick right now? Where's the Nussmeyer Heisman hype right now? Oh, it completely vanished. Oh gee, I wonder, I guess. Oh, the Arch Manning Heisman, Heisman, Heisman hype completely vanished. I guess we better go search for another SEC quarterback because God forbid we look. Put your eyes to the south for the Heisman candidacy of fill in the blank. God forbid that it's not an SEC quarterback. Well, arching and Nussmeier really crapped the bed. So I guess we're stuck with Pavia and Simpson. Everybody good? All right, we ended the conference call. You, you can put Simpson or Pavia first. Just make sure you don't like go too far. At the undefeated number one defending national champs. Like, come on. For real. He's Bill landis. I'm Doug LeMaris and that was the Bill and Doug Show.

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[Bill Landis]

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