← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Is Ohio State's defense the best unit in college football?
00:25:08
Ohio State's defense is allowing the second-fewest points per game in the country. Could the Buckeyes have the best defense in the country?
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- [00:01]
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- [01:22]
B
Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. Doug Laymaurice Talking about Ohio State's defense on this Tuesday morning by myself and the idea when I thought let's do this video on Tuesday was is the Ohio State defense the best unit in the country? And I'm already thinking maybe that's not the conversation because when I started diving into the numbers a little bit, I thought maybe when you looked at some of the advanced numbers, there's a thing called stuff rate that people like as a, as a metric, which is sort of like how often are you preventing offenses from even gaining a yard on a play? There's havoc rate, which is a combination of turnovers and tackles for loss and creating havoc for a defense. And I thought maybe, you know, if you got inside the numbers a little bit on Ohio State, it might be like, oh my gosh, they're number one in the country in this, the number two in the country in this. And it's not actually the case. And it is hard to judge three games in when Ohio State has played such a wide range of opponents in three games. Number one team in the country to start the year, an overmatched FCS opponent week two and then sort of like a team that really is almost exactly, I think fairly in the middle of the pack in the FBs in week three. But there's some of those inside Stats that like are just okay. Ohio State's 25th in stuff rate as a defense, which is good, but it's not ridiculous. Havoc rate. They're like in the 50s and it's almost not worth talking about that they aren't destroying opposing offenses with a bunch of sacks, a bunch of tackles for loss, a bunch of Turnovers. They've created four turnovers so far in three games, which is pretty average. That's tied for 48 in the country to have four turnovers. They have seven sacks through three games. Ohio State does, which is 2.33 a game, which is 48 in the country. They have 17 tackles for loss through three games, which is 67th in the country. So statistically it's, there's not like a secret story to tell statistically. But I think there's a very public story to tell about what Ohio State is doing defensively compared to some other similar programs and where Ohio State could be and isn't. So. So that's actually going to be what I'm going to talk about. But let me give you a few more Ohio State stats. Defensively, as we think about this Ohio State defense, which I think has been the story of the season for Ohio State so far. Ohio State is second in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 5.3 points per game. That obviously includes the shutout against Grambling State. Only BYU is allowing fewer points per game because BYU has only played two games and they had a shutout against an FCS team and then they allowed three to Stanford. So BYU's defense is giving up 1.5 points per game. So Ohio State second there. Ohio State is giving up 109 rushing yards per game. That's 48th in the country, 118 passing yards per game. That's 11th. And 227.7 overall yards per game. That's 14th. Good. Very good. For sure. Not like holy moly, I can't believe that they're allowing fewer than 100 yards per game. Now part of this is, and I think as we think holistically about the Ohio State defense, Texas did march on him a little bit in the second half. But Ohio State got a goal line stop and another red zone stop on downs, which changed the complexion of that game. And I want to talk about Arch Manning in a second. But so like in the end, holding that Texas team and the expectation of that Texas team to seven points is a tremendous performance by Ohio State. And we all talked about in the moment what Matt Patricia was dialing up, what these very intelligent Ohio State players, especially on the back end, were able to execute. I think obviously they deserve a lot of credit for that. Okay. But there's two anecdotal things I think here that made me even start the conversation of is the Ohio State defense the best unit in the country? One is they might have broken Arch Manning. The conversation with Arch Manning has now turned to people asking whether he's sort of seeing ghosts, whether there's something happening, happening with him. I've seen sort of mainstream stream respected college football analysts starting to ask if Arch Manning has the gifts that he was booed at his own field in week three. And whatever is happening with Arch Manning, there's some outside pressure of expectations of the family name, of being the Heisman favorite, of being the quarterback and waiting for two seasons at Texas, being a five star recruit that maybe is, maybe is turning out to be a lot for anybody to handle. I think that's very reasonable assessment. It's also possible that what Matt Patricia and Caleb downs and Jalen McLean and Davis and Igbignosan and Jermaine Matthews and Lorenzo Stiles and what that Ohio State secondary did to Arch Manning in week one is having an effect on him that they changed up their defense so much they disguise their coverages pre and post snap that he did not know, especially in the first half, he did not know what he was seeing and it might have broken his brain and he doesn't trust what he's seeing at all right now. And then if your mind is slowing you down, it's hard for your body to catch up. So I think anecdotally you could either look at it and say, oh, Ohio State held that Texas offense to seven points, but you know, they did allow them to march on two other times where they stopped them. But also maybe Texas is overrated and maybe we'll find out after the fact that, that another month of this and maybe it's like holding Texas to seven all of a sudden maybe won't be so impressive. But also I think you could look at it and say holy moly, what they did to this highly skilled, highly rated quarterback was so catastrophic for him that is now lingering. So I think that's interesting. The other thing is anecdotally, a lot of the top 10 top 25 matchups in college football this season have been high scoring affairs. And most of that is what just happened. I just ran through. We know that 14, 7 Ohio State game. Here are the other matchups of top 25 teams during the first three weeks. Iowa State over Kansas State 24 21. LSU over Clemson. That was a defensive battle. 1710 Miami over Notre Dame 2724 Oklahoma over Michigan 2413 Miami over South Florida 4912 Georgia Tennessee in overtime 44 41. That was 38, 38 tie into regulation. Texas A and M A and M over Notre Dame 41 40. So to have these two big matchups last weekend where they are high scoring affairs, Georgia, Tennessee and Texas A and M. Notre Dame with defense first programs where nobody could stop anybody. And when you think about the Texas Ohio State game, that's the story of the Ohio State defense. And you think about these matchups in the story of offenses, the story of Marcel Reed and Texas A and M finding a way at the end of the game to march down the field and answer with a touchdown in the final seconds after Notre Dame had scored. It's Gunner Stockton completing a pass on 4th and 10 for Georgia to send that game to overtime. It is not a story now it's credit to those offenses, but I think it's, it's that stark contrast of man teams are letting it rip in these, these, these big time matchups. And in Ohio State, Texas, it was a story of suffocation. And that really I think is a defining characteristic of how we view the Ohio State defense so far. So I'm not telling anybody to back off of that. I was. My answer is not. If my question at the start of this was does Ohio State defense represent the best unit in the country? Offense or defense? What's the best unit in the country? My answer is not no. Ohio State's defense is not the best unit in the country. But it's also my answer is not yes. I thought maybe as I dug into this I would come to a definitive yes three weeks in. My answer is I don't know. It's too early to tell, which is not much of a conclusion. But I want to be honest about it. Looking at the Fermo ratings which you guys know I always like and Brian from O, this is sort of like down to down. Now this is from O is drive the drive. We'll get into success rate which is down to down. Brian from O is drive to drive. Ohio State does have the number one ranked defense in the country as they did last year. His is a, is a decimal statistical model. So Ohio State's defense ranking is 0.74. That's number one in the country. The second ranked defense is Texas, believe it or not, at.69. Oregon's offense is ranked higher than Ohio State's defense. They are the number one offense at 0.85. Ohio State's offense is actually second at 0.69. So now part of this is, and Brian from explains this, there are some preseason numbers that are baked into that. There's still like 50 or 60% of that rating is preseason numbers. So the fact that Ohio State was number one in defense last year is affecting this. But that's really good, right? Success rate, which is so we like to use for MO rankings. Drive to drive success rate is play to play. How well are you doing Ohio State? Their success rate defensively right now, which is again, like how often are you this is based on like on on. Did you hold them to this many yards in this situation? This many yards in this situation? The definition changes depending on down to down and how many yards a team needs to get. So did the defense stop the offense from doing what it needed to do in that moment? As a definition of success, Ohio State is 20th in success rate defensively in the country. They are 15th among power conference teams. Now again, this is hard to judge three weeks in, but if I had looked at that, Ohio State was number two in the nation's success rate. I want to come here and said, okay, they're the best defense in the country.
- [11:43]
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- [13:00]
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What they are doing the very best right now so they're not Exactly. Stopping teams play to play with stuff rate like holding them to zero or negative yards per play. They're not exactly doing that. They're not exactly creating a ton of havoc where they're turning, turning teams over where they're getting tackles for loss and they're not exactly just smothering you that you have no chance of success. But what they are doing is playing really smart, I think playing really sophisticated. And they are tied for fourth in the country in the fewest number of big plays allowed. They have only allowed, I think it is four plays of 20 yards or more this season. That is correct. Which is tied for the fourth fewest in the nation. So they're not letting anybody get over their head. They had the touchdown against Ohio, which pops up here a little bit. But for the most, the most part, they are playing sophisticated looks in the secondary. They are containing quarterbacks with their pass rush and not letting guys scramble for big yardage. They are not hell bent on pressure at all costs. And they are making defenses work, excuse me, making. They are making offenses work to get down the field. And I think if they're starting there and it is a comparison, direct comparison to Jim Knowles who kind of like to let it rip. And then during that very successful era of Ohio State defense, a lot of the conversation was are they trying too hard, are they doing too much? They back off that a little bit. And I think where Matt Patricia and this defense is right now is they are saying first, let's be smart and let's be. I don't even know if cautious is the right word, but let's not let you get big plays. And then I think they can unleash even more of the havoc. I think they can still get better at the run defense, but it is more as a reminder, I think that it is a work in progress that you really like where they are as a starting point. Point. And we're going to tack talk to Matt Patricia along with Brian Hartline and Ryan Day on Tuesday. Landis and I will have deeper dives on where Heartline and this offense are, where Patricia and this defense are later in the week. But right now I think that's what you like the most. Four plays of. Only. Of only 20 yards or more. Only four plays that they've allowed, I think is really good over the course. I just always like to go through and say drive the drive. What are you doing? In all their drives this season, this is what Ohio State has allowed. Okay, let me double check this. Okay. Yes, this is, this is right. Okay. Three games they forced punts 19 times, they've turned teams over four times, they've stopped them on downs four times. They've allowed two touchdowns, they've allowed two field goal tries, one that missed and they the one drive, one like kind of real drive ended when the clock ran out. So that is 19 punts, four turnovers, four stoppage of downs and four, only four like scoring attempt drives. That's excellent. That's a lot of punts due. And I do think sometimes it's reasonable to focus on turnovers. But turnovers, there is a component of luck involved and sometimes turnovers I think bail you out. I'm always really curious of like how often do you force and punts and you go through. There's a lot of three and outs, there's a lot of four nows for this Ohio State defense. So it is an excellent defense so far. There is no doubt about it. But what I think we maybe would define them the most by is what they are not. And what they are not is on fire. Because in looking at some other major defensive coordinator hires this offseason, clearly Jim knowles going for $3 million a year to Penn State is a big deal. Penn State's defense has played really well through the first three games. They haven't really played anybody, but they're up there statistically. Right. We want to acknowledge that. Certainly they deserve that acknowledgment. So the Jim Knowles experiment for Penn State, not much of an experiment I think is going well. Two other hires that I think would be similar to what Ohio State did. One is Clemson, which hired Tom Allen away from Penn State, which created the opening for Jim Knowles. TOM Allen FORMER INDIANA HEAD COACH I do think a very accomplished defensive coordinator. I thought he did a good job at Penn State last year. He got hired away by Clemson and Clemson's problems at 1 and 2 do not start with defense. But you look at last week when they lost to Georgia Tech and late in that game Clemson is ahead 14, 13. They force a fumble on Georgia Tech on the third to last possession. But then the last two possessions of the game, Clemson allows Georgia Tech to go on a 13 play, 90 yard touchdown drive to take the lead. Clemson answers with a 13 play 75 yard drive to tie it at 21. And then Georgia Tech goes on a 10 play 38 yard drive to kick the game winning field goal, a very long one, but the game winning field goal in the last play of the game. So you brought in, they have all these guys up front who are future first round draft picks at Clemson. You bring in this defensive coordinator and then in a pretty good matchup game. I don't, I don't underrate Georgia Tech. They're a very good team. I picked them as a dark horse to make the playoff before the season. I also picked Clemson to go undefeated in the regular season. The Clemson defense didn't do what needed to be done for a championship level team. So it's not a Blaze. I can't believe how horrible it is. They've lost two relatively low scoring games to LSU and Georgia Tech. But in a moment where a Tom Allen defense could have stood up, it didn't happen. That's one. The second is Notre Dame, and Notre Dame is on fire. Notre Dame lost Al golden to the NFL where he became the defensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals last year. Statistically, in a lot of places, Ohio State and Notre Dame had the two best defenses in the country. Notre Dame brought a ton back and they hired Chris Ash. Marcus Freeman hired Chris Ash to come in and be the new defensive coordinator. Chris Ash, who once upon a time was Ohio State's defensive coordinator during the national championship year in 2014, parlayed that into being the head coach at Rutgers, where it did not go well at all. Bounced around after that. I think was in the NFL most recently, but it was kind of an off the radar hire because this is not a guy like Patricia was, but Patricia was kind of bouncing around the NFL. Ash is a college guy who maybe I think had a little taste of the NFL, but I think it's not a. I think it's not a bad comparison for the Matt Patricia hire. And this is what would have been Ohio State fans nightmare because it's a disaster. Pete Sampson, the great Notre Dame writer for the Athletic, wrote this. I don't want to steal all his his paid copy, but Marcus Freeman has a defensive coordinator problem. He doesn't need to admit it, but he absolutely needs to understand it. For all the off season, talk about Chris Ash enhancing the defense, adding zone schemes and mixing up personnel, the product has been a disaster. Through two games, Ash took a defense that was aggressive and fast and reduced it to tentative and reactionary. The Irish don't get pressure. There's no havoc. He's asking players recruited to play in your face, man. To read everything out as receivers fly past them. There's some specific instances and I would direct you. Pete does a great podcast called the Independent with Matt Fortuna. You can find them. You could also go read Pete at the Athletic.
- [20:44]
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- [22:02]
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There's some specific plays. The bottom line is people don't feel like the coverage and the pass rush is matching up with Notre Dame and that people are saying, as Pete just wrote, that Notre Dame's defense is not putting his talented players in the best position to succeed. Going back to last year, they have two pretty good corners, but they really have an excellent corner in Leonard Moore and then a corner in Christian Gray, who's the guy who gets picked on a little bit. Christian Gray was the guy who High State ran the deep ball on to end the national championship game. There is a play and the Texas A and M game where they blitzed Leonard Moore and wound up putting Christian Gray on an island. It's like why are you blitzing your best best corner, for example? That's a kind of thing that is showing up and what Matt Patricia has done. And again, it's such a credit to the Ohio State defenders that he is doing sophisticated things but they're capable of doing it and what you want to hear with anything. So Jim, if Jim Knowles had a specific defensive style, but really what people have found since Matt Patricia was hired is that he's going to do what fits his personnel. You have a situation in Notre Dame where people feel like he, Chris Ash is not fitting the plan to the personnel and the result is a fast defense becomes slow and aggressive defense Becomes reactionary. And a defense that really had a great secondary last year now has guys running by them. And they lost to Miami by three and they lost to Texas A&M by one of the last play of the game because they can't stop opposing passing games. They can't get stops when it's necessary. And they were doing that once upon time. So. And it's not a lack of talent. They didn't, they did not lose a ton. They lost Xavier Watts at safety, but they brought in a transfer to replace him. And they still have a lot of people up front. They were really hurt on defense last year. The result is they have a lot of people who have played that are back at all three levels of the defense, secondary, linebacker, defensive line and so. And also the Notre Dame defensive tackle on the fourth down play against Texas A and M and like got tackled and it wasn't called, it was a blown call by that officiating crew on the game winning play for Texas A and M. If they call that Texas A and M has to try to do it again from 10 yards farther back and maybe Notre Dame, very likely Notre Dame wins that game. We're having a completely different conversation here. But the, the fact about Notre Dame's defense not being good enough would continue. It would just be in victory in a 1 and 1 instead of in defeating it at 0 2. But this is what any concerns about Matt Patricia at Ohio State I think were based on, which is once upon a time you did it. Once upon a time, Matt Patricia and Chris Ash were both really good defensive coordinators. But you haven't done it lately and can you do it now? And will you take advantage of the talent that you're given? And the answer so far is at one place yes in Columbus and at one place no in South Bend. And Notre Dame played two excellent teams so far. I still think they can be good. It might be too late for a playoff conversation. Bill and I will talk about it at that at some point. But you're seeing unfold what maybe some people feared here with Ohio State. And it hasn't been the case at all. So I'm not going to sit here and conclude Ohio State's defense is the best unit in the country. But I am going to conclude that it's playing smart. It is not allowing itself to get beat on big plays. Other than that one, that one matchup play against Ohio University, I think there is potential to stop the run even better to create more plays, more turnovers, more tackles for loss. I think that will come, but also as a reminder as Ohio State gets through this off week and then into better offenses. Jonah Coleman at Washington is one of the best running backs in the country. He's run for well over 100 yards in each of the first two games for the Huskies. As Ohio State gets into Washington and Minnesota and Illinois, I would say let's understand how good Ohio State's defense has been. Let's not go too far in thinking that the Buckeyes are infallible there defensively. Let's take into account that they either broke Arch or Arch is just broken. But Maybe Demond Williams Jr. And Luke Altmire and Drake Lindsay, the next three quarterbacks they're going to face will be a challenge in a little bit. But the bottom line is I think everybody watching and listening and who has eyeballs that have watched this Ohio State defense would agree they are in a great spot. And there are other defenses who this off season were very similar situations who are not in a great spot right now. So the connection at Ohio State defensively is exactly what you want to see and there's potential for this group to get even better. I'm just going to stop short. I'm not going to say I don't think there's a defense that you would say is better than Ohio State's right now. I think you could throw them into a group. People have been impressed with lsu. I think you can Miami, maybe you can throw them into a group, but they are certainly in the top tier. No doubt about it. Oregon's offense if you wanted to make an argument that Oregon has the best offense in the country, Ohio State's offense is in the conversation too. But Oregon also just got mad at an overmatched Oklahoma State team and put up a bunch of stats that were driving stuff up. But Dante Moore is playing great. Decorum is playing great. They have a lot of guys there. So anyway, Ohio State defense among the best units in the country is the exciting conclusion of Doug's video. Thanks you guys for being here. You can find Bill Landis and me on our substack. Dylan, Doug, Osu substack. Google that. You'll find us if you want more written content. If you want some of the premium shows, we do have a gigantic premium show coming Wednesday about Ohio State roster building. It is a recruiting conversation, but more than a recruiting conversation. And we are just going to advise Ohio State fans to maybe make sure you are adjusting your thinking when you think about recruiting because it's not a recruiting conversation anymore or should I say it's not only a recruiting conversation anymore. It is a more sophisticated roster building conversation where as opposed to the past, every part of player acquisition, portal retention, recruiting are connected to each other in a new way that wasn't the case in the past. And so we are just going to try to Bill and I are going to talk you guys through it so that you're not driving yourself crazy because you haven't shifted your thinking when the sport itself has shifted. It's not an excuse making show. It is let's all kind of talk this out type of show. We're also going to have sort of grading Matt patricia here on YouTube and on the podcast feeds this week. We're going to have grading Brian Hartline. We're going to have our playoff picks. We're going to have you and there's no Ohio State game. We're going to have our national picks this week. I had a terrible, terrible week last week. We'll try to get better. But for now, thanks to you guys for being here. So much more to come on the substack and on your podcast and YouTube feeds. For now, I'm Douglas Maurice and that was the Bill and Doug Show.