← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Julian Sayin, Tavien St. Clair and how Ohio State football should develop quarterbacks in this era
00:48:50
What does the future hold for Ohio State as it balances two 5-star quarterbacks in back-to-back classes in Julian Sayin and Tavien St. Clair? While The Athletic presented a recent story headlined "Why don’t college football programs develop quarterbacks anymore?" Ohio State still plans to do that.
Loading summary
Transcript77 lines
- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. Doug Lamoris and Bill Landis. We're going to start doing this, Bill, I think in the off season we do Q A shows on our substack feed. You can find us at billanddugosu.subs.com where we call it the Sunday Sound Off. We take questions and comments from our substack subscribers and we do a show for them on most Sundays. Sometimes we work that into the Wednesday show Thursday that we do for our substack subscribers. We don't do as many Q and A type shows on this YouTube and podcast feed, but we would like to start doing that. And I think the idea to me is maybe like, find a question from our substack subscribers each week that the answer requires a little more thought and analysis and kind of just answer like one question and then drop it in on this feed through the off season. That all right with you?
- [00:52]
B
Sounds great to me. Yeah. We're in a time where we could use a little bit of help via smart questions from our subscribers and we often get too many of them to talk about on our substack show. So happy to. To bring some of them over here. Yeah. Yeah.
- [01:08]
A
And also I changed where I sit in my basement, so yeah, I, I no longer have that panel door behind my head.
- [01:17]
B
And I did like, somebody asked if that was the transfer portal, which I really enjoyed. Yeah.
- [01:25]
A
We had to move the foosball table to make this happen over here. So we'll make, make sure that this works for everybody and then we'll get it decorated back here. But I do have a bill and Doug sign if you notice that.
- [01:38]
B
I will, I will give you the dragon statue once you get a shelf up there to put the dragon statue on.
- [01:43]
A
That's what it took. That's what it took to get the dragon statue back. All right, thanks everybody for being here. Like, subscribe, tell a friend, if you're watching on YouTube, hit the little bell so you get notifications whenever we drop in. We want to do two things here. One is a question and one is bouncing off of a story Antonio Morales wrote in the Athletic called why don't college football programs develop quarterbacks anymore? And Gavi s sent this question as this type of topic applies to Ohio State. Given all of the emphasis on playing old and experienced guys, especially at quarterback, do you think there is any chance that Tavian St Clair enters the transfer portal after next season? So this would be after the 2026 season, which would be his second year in college. I hate the thought of it, but I feel like saying Julian Saying had about as good of a first year as a starter as you could ask for, yet it probably wasn't enough to win a natty. Do you think Ryan Day is willing to either gamble or take a year off and let Tavian Sinclair develop again? I hate the thought of it and want to see him stay, but it's been on my mind. So there's a lot of play here. We basically want to have a conversation about Ohio State and its quarterback, should they develop, should they go in the portal, should they be willing to take first year lumps even though Julian San was a Heisman finalist. Right. Like there are some things that Julian saying as a first year starter maybe didn't do that. Carson Becket, Miami in year six in college or Fernando Mendoza as a third year starter. Two at Cal, one in Indiana. They're just a different place in their careers. But we understand this as we lay out a Tavian St. Clair scenario. Bill, there's like two ways this could go, right? That would the ways that Tavian St. Clair is never planned to be the starting quarterback at Ohio State. One would be Julian sand just continues to block him and that Julian sand is the starter in 2026 and maybe stays and is a third year starter in 2027. And then Tavian Sinclair, who's only one year younger than Julian Saying, would potentially be asked to sit three years before he plays in year four at Ohio State for a five star quarterback. That seems a lot to ask. Or whenever Julian sand is done, Ohio State and Ryan Day decide rather than going to Tavian Sinclair, who has never started before, let's go in the portal, let's go get Fernando Mendoza or Carson Beck rather than take some first year lumps with Tavian Sinclair. I think that's what Gavi's talking about. Like, is there a choice there? We laid it out. We can get specific on both things. Is this something that Ohio State fans should be thinking about, be concerned about, have on their mind at all?
- [04:19]
B
I think it's fair to have it on your mind. Have it on your mind. Yes. I don't know that I'd be concerned about it. A lot of these conversations and like I, you know, I read the article that Antonio wrote. There was, it was, I think it was like, well, well positioned. Like I, I understand the concern sort of like among college football at large about this this particular topic, but I, I also think a lot of these conversations we're having with, with a high degree of certainty are being done with a very small sample size cell. So like, I, I don't know if, if Ohio State is in the, in a position where it feels like we have to be old at quarterback, we must be old at quarterback in a way that might jeopardize the future of a player of Tavian's profile in the program. So it's fun. It's not even fun. It's like interesting, I think, I think like to like bandy about a bit, but, but I don't know that I'm sitting here as Tavian gets ready to go into year two at Ohio State, thinking to myself, like, boy, I'm really worried this kid's never going to play here. Like, I, I believe pretty strongly that he's going to be the starting quarterback at Ohio State someday.
- [05:24]
A
What is your scenario under which that happens? The most likely scenario that Tavian Sinclair is the starter.
- [05:32]
B
The most likely I think is that Julian Saying is good again this year and goes to the NFL.
- [05:38]
A
That's the smoothest, the easiest, the most like how college football has operated. Yeah, right. You get a five star quarterback, he's only in college for three years because man, he's so good. And then you have another five star quarterback behind him. And Tavian Sinclair had to wait two years to play instead of one like Julian Saen did. But Tavian Sinclair could then be a one year starter and go to the NFL like Dwayne Haskins did. He could be a two year starter and push off the NFL and stay to start two years like Arch Manning is doing right now. And all of that would seem pretty normal. You know, do you have any reason to like not have it? Should anyone not be thinking normally like the sport has changed, but for Ohio State in a situation like this, is it business as usual?
- [06:27]
B
I kind of think it's business as usual until, until they show me otherwise and they being Ohio State. Because I just, I, I do wonder like if some of these things that are truths about the sport are, are not necessarily truth about places like Ohio State. I know maybe, maybe that's naive, but that's, that's kind of where I am on, on this. So I think, I think that opportunity that, that smooth path that, that you know, transition to, of quarterbacks is, is still out there for why I say, I guess the thing that you would consider is like maybe, maybe Julian Saying is not a slam dunk first round pick, right? Because he, because of his size or something else because, you know, perceived lack of athleticism or something like there, there are, there are gains that I think he has to make as a player. He being Julian this year to I think feel 100 confident about the idea of him leaving after two years as a starter. I I'm aware of that, but I don't think he's off track with that either. So I'm kind of still operating under under that premise that that will eventually happen for him and then he'll make that jump next year.
- [07:37]
A
A lot of this comes back to and we had a little bit of this discussion on the Sunday Sound off. I think it was Will C. Who is bringing up the idea of this experience conversation around Ohio State. You and I have been talking a lot and writing about on Substack over here about Ohio State trading potential for production in the portal this off season and that does Is there a minimum threshold of experience, is there a minimum threshold of age that any team wants to hit in order to compete at the highest level of the sport? And you look at Miami, you look at Indiana, you look at the last six teams that have played in the national championship game over the previous three years. They were all older, they were all more experienced than Ohio state was in 2025. But the question really is, as the sport changes, how much should Ohio change, Ohio State change with the sport, or how much should Ohio State be the exception to the rule that this is the way that everybody else tries to compete with Ohio State and tries to compete with Georgia and tries to compete what, with what Bama used to be and maybe tries to compete with Texas? But if you're Ohio State, maybe Ohio State and Georgia at the most because Georgia is even younger, Georgia is even younger and, and leaning more on talent and taking potential, potential overproduction than Ohio State has been. Ohio State has gotten some key transfers here and there in the port of the last couple years. Georgia's gotten almost nobody. They got the Branch brothers and like that's basically they have not been hitting it very hard. So if there are things that other teams are doing to try to reach the level that you're at, does that mean you should do the same things to try to repel them? Or does that mean the reason they're doing it is because they can't do what we do, they can't bring in five stars, they can't have NFL quarterbacks get recruited and developed at our place year after year? And so yes, for Indiana, Fernando Mendoza is the answer. But no, for Ohio State, Fernando Mendoza doesn't have to be the answer because they have Julian saying and Tavian Sinclair. But then the thing that throws us off is they won a national championship with Will Howard and that really seemed to work. So that's the hard part about this. If Ohio State had never gone the transfer route at quarterback and I'd be like, that's just not what they do. But they did it one time out of necessity because it wasn't that they didn't want to. Ohio State didn't say we want to transfer over a new starter. They picked the transfer over year two of Kyle McCord. That just should have been year two of commerce. That's not taking new lumps with Kyle McCord. They looked at the previous lumps and said, it's not worth it. We want something else. It's an, it's a one for one trade. It didn't throw off their development track at quarterback. But if we would be saying, like, man, I just don't. If your choice is like a new, a new starter who's never played or Josh Hoover, you know, bring in a guy who's played for three years somewhere else, is that what you should do? Do you think Ohio State should think about that more? Or should they say, no, we're the place where five star recruits come to get developed a quarterback and we're going to play them and if we take a few lumps, we take them.
- [10:44]
B
Yeah, I mean, I guess my answer to that is like, they should keep an open mind. Right? Like nothing is sacred. I, I, I, I, I. But I don't know that that pushes them toward always taking the transfer. Really? Because I, I don't think, yes, the Will Howard example lingers there, but I don't really know that it's applicable to this conversation. Right. Because as you just laid out, not, not only did they have a body of work to analyze from Kyle McCord to determine whether or not they thought he should be the starter in year two, there wasn't another guy waiting. Like there wasn't another five star. This guy's got the goods. He's going to be maybe a first round or first overall pick kind of player waiting in the wings that you would, you would maybe take that flyer on and hand him the reins as a young quarterback. It was like, if we're, if we're not starting Kyle, we need to go get a quarterback. And I don't think that's the position that Ohio State would be finding itself in after the 2026 season. I still think they'd ponder it.
- [11:42]
A
Right.
- [11:42]
B
You have to analyze the market and see who might be out there. And you know, Julian Saying kind of fell out of the sky for Ohio State. So you have to be, be, I think, understanding that sometimes stuff like that might happen. So, so it's, it's, it's a never say never sort of situation. But I think, you know, taking everything into account and projecting as much as you can and trying to put your finger on exactly how Ohio State might operate in this new world, I, I still think they want to be the place that brings in, you know, five star caliber quarterbacks, develops them for probably a year. This is like a bit of a special circumstance. Probably a year and then play them as, as second year guys. And this will be a little different. But, but I think once you and, and I think the fact that Tavian's from Ohio makes it different. Like, I think, I think I might have said this another show. Like if Tavian was from Florida, I don't think he'd be on the roster right now.
- [12:35]
A
Right now. Already.
- [12:37]
B
Yeah. And like, just because of like the dynamics of the position within the sport, I'm sure I have not had a single conversation with anybody about this. I'm try to get him away from Ohio State this off season. And if he weren't from Ohio, I bet that that would have been a little bit easier for, for those teams because we saw other five star guys who have not played at all. Transfer.
- [12:58]
A
Yes.
- [12:59]
B
To go to like in the story that Antonio wrote, transfer from being a backup to a place where they're going to be a backup. So like that that's happening. But I think the fact that Tavians from Ohio sort of, sort of helped Ohio State stay that off a little bit. And I, you know, there aren't five star quarterbacks in the state every year. So I think there's a conversation about if you're Ohio State, can you take the five star guy every recruiting cycle? I think the answer is probably no. And if you look at how they're recruiting the position, they're not doing, they're not doing that. But if you have one in the pipeline, I think, I think you try to line it up to play him. I don't, I don't think you just dismiss him offhand because he'll be inexperienced the first time you play him.
- [13:41]
A
I do want to talk about Tavian Sinclair's class and what is happening with the other top 10 quarterbacks who are true freshmen this season because we already are seeing. There's, there's a lot of, there's like, like there's three categories of guys, right? There's guys who've already played. There's guys who have already transferred and then there are the guys who haven't played and haven't transferred. And it's basically an even three way split on that. But I want to ask us, if Tavian Sinclair had been a year behind Kyle McCord and Ryan Day and Ohio State had gotten to the end of that 2023 season and it was kind of like, like Kyle whatever, and that had gone down exactly as that went down, would they have brought in Will Howard or do you think Ryan Day would have said, we're going to Tavian Sinclair, we're gonna go in the portal and get a veteran maybe to compete with him or to back him up, but we are not going to get a starter. We're not going to get Will Howard. We're going to because we're going to Tavian because now it's year two. Tavian. And that, that was just about it just didn't work with McCord. We don't want year two of McCord. We want something else. And there really wasn't an option on the roster. So then they had to go get a transfer portal. But if Tavian Sinclair had been sitting there, what do you think they would have done?
- [14:58]
B
Played him okay, as a second year guy. It's like isn't that, isn't that they played Julian, right? Same, same scenario, right? Yeah, yeah, they would, I think they would have played that, that, however, that next, if there was a, if there's a five star, top five active position guy on the roster going into his sophomore or red shirt freshman year, depending on how much he had played the previous year, I think they would have just handed it to that guy, but that they didn't have that guy on the roster foreign.
- [15:28]
A
And so I think what Gavi is getting at is this idea of if you can be a place like Miami that maybe is not going to ever take a quarterback lump again, right? They're just going to be in the portal. They were in the portal for Cam Ward. They were in the portal for Carson Beck. Now they're in the portal now to try to get a guy for next year. Indiana might not ever take a quarterback lump again. Curtis Rourke in the portal. Fernando Mendoza in the portal. Josh Hoover in the portal. There's going to be places like that where you don't, you don't take a lump. Now the, the hard part about that is that Miami, while they went in the portal and got a guy for a year who turned into the number one pick in Cam Ward, Indiana went the portal and got a guy for a year who won the Heisman and is going to be the number one pick. That is a little weird that the, the number one pick in the country was just sitting in the portal for two straight years in Cam Warden Fernando Mendoza. And because I think that I, you would imagine that one of the bonuses of development is your ceilings higher, that maybe it's a floor raiser. You don't take those lumps, you bring in a veteran guy. I don't think famous last words, Josh Hoover is going to win the Heisman at Indiana or Curtis Work, like that example. Curtis Work was awesome. He was second team all Big Ten. He helped Indiana get to the playoff. That's, I think that's like almost the ceiling you would expect from a transfer quarterback is that because the very best guys who can be the number one picker who can win the Heisman, their team's not letting them go, man. But we've had two straight years of that. And so then it's like, well, why aren't you in the portal all the time? If it raises your floor and it doesn't limit your ceiling, go in the portal. Whereas maybe you would think, well if we don't want to limit our ceiling at Ohio State, so we want to make sure we control the development path, we control the recruitment of these guys. I don't know. Can make it attractive, doesn't it? Doesn't it make it kind of attractive?
- [17:18]
B
Sure. But I also think like taking your lumps at quarterback, like they, they played a young guy this year was a Heisman finalist. His, his statistically he was like as good as Fernando Mendoza. Like it was exactly true. Yeah. Taking your love like 130 teams to sign up for that lump. You know what I mean? Like, and it's not like, you know, Kyle McCord played as a third year guy who was a first time starter and did not play very well. I'm not saying like every guy who has a five star pedigree is guaranteed to play well, but Ohio State has like, and I, I guess you would say like Ohio State has done this three times, right? C.J. stroud, Kyle McCord. And, and I would, I would count Julian saying, even though he's technically a transfer and like two of them were Heisman finalists as redshirt freshmen.
- [18:01]
A
Right.
- [18:01]
B
And one didn't work out. Right. So like I, it's not foolproof, but I, I would still be, I think fairly comfortable banking on, on that track record, especially with a guy like Tavian who's just Got kind of physical traits out the wazoo. Right. So it is attractive, no doubt like to go get that guy who's sort of, who's sort of ready made. And, and I think like maybe your, your, your team around him influences that too. Right. If you, and we don't know what a high stage roster is going to look like in 2027, but if that, if they're able to keep some guys around and that is a more veteran offense, maybe you feel a little better about bring, you know, inserting a younger guy there. If it's not, if it's a younger offense, do you want an older quarterback to shepherd those guys along? Do you want a younger quarterback so they can all grow together? Like there's a lot of different ways you can think about that and that's information we don't, we don't have on hand now. But I just, I, it would be a heck of a thing I think to pass up on having a guy like that in your pipeline simply because you want to be older now. Like I said, like if, if, if the no doubt about a guy is there available and he wants to come to Ohio State, then yeah, let's have a convers old transfer quarterback X over five star guy who's been in the, in the system for two years and is ready to roll. Like I would, I would take the young guy and play him because there's just aren't, there aren't a lot of teams that have access to that kind of quarterback talent.
- [19:24]
A
And, and if there was a year in between sand and Sinclair, this might all be perfect. And I think that is ideally how they want it to be. That then everybody, if the plan is sort of you wait in year one behind a guy who is in his third year and is a second year starter and then that guy goes to the NFL and then you start in year two and three. So you wait one year and you play two and then you go to the NFL and if that's the plan and you can stack it, they just got slightly off on the stack here which is, which amplifies it a little bit. But then the other part of this is so, and to be fair, like we have been having conversations like we thought, you know, Julian saying didn't quite elevate in the postseason the way that he thought he would. Or, and the hard thing is, are you comparing Julian saying as a year one starter to what you think Julian saying is going to be as a year two or your three starter? Or are you comparing Julian saying to all the other current quarterbacks in college football. Because I think we would say, man, if you would, if you would have just scrambled a little bit more, if he would have taken a couple of the shots that were there and, and, and maybe been taken a few more risks, right, to make big plays. And we can see, we expect that in 2026 and in 2027 if he stays, right? Because compared to himself, year two starter Julian sand will be better than year one starter Julian Sam. But if year one starter Julian sand was still overall in college football, the third best quarterback in college football, fourth best quarterback, right. So it wasn't like he held Ohio State back, which is like the point that you are making sure we, we make here.
- [21:03]
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's not like, because I even saw, you know, after the season people were comparing Julian saying season this year to Kyle McCord season. It's just like I wasn't looking for an opportunity to rag on Kyle McCorber. Like they were not the same. Yeah, they're not even close to the same. I do, like, I, I do think this whole conversation and this was like reality of, of the sport and in this position in particular does sort of like make it imperative. Like Ohio State needs to play Tavian Sinclair this year. They, they need to gather information, right? Like they can't do the thing they've done in the past where it's like, hey, we have a new young starter. We've never seen him play before. We hope he's good. Like, you can't, you can't sell yourself short in that regard if you're trying to make evaluations if you're Ohio State. So like, I'm not saying they need to have a, a dual quarterback system, but like I would be, I would be planning right now Tavian Sinclair is playing half the game against Ball State. Okay. And whatever. I forget their, their third non conference game. That's not Texas, but Tavian's playing half that game. And then if you have an opportunity to play him late in some Big Ten games, like, you must play him because like practice is great and like, I'm going to write a story about Tavian and what he learned playing on scout team this year coming up here soon and all that is valuable. But I don't think anything supersedes game reps even against teams like Ball State. So like if they go through the season and just like don't play him at all because they never play backup quarterbacks any, like, any meaningful snaps, like that would be, I think a pretty large misstep if they get to the end of the year and don't really know what they have and then are like trying to do guesswork on whether or not they should roll with Tavian or go find a transfer like that would. That would be a pretty tough situation to find yourself in.
- [22:44]
A
Yeah, these are good questions. I mean, I, I really think I, I think you and I believe, I think a lot of our viewers and readers at Substack believe that maybe the the era of playing slow to save snaps on your starters has should come to an end at Ohio State. Will it come to an end? Because if the answer is we don't want our starters to get tired, then it's well, then play your backups. Because playing your backups matters in keeping young guys involved in evaluating young guys. And Ryan Day answered a question of I asked him about that this season. He said all the reasons that you need to play young gu. Then they really didn't. And then it's like they re. They. They. They did for like a game and I was, I got all excited and asked about it and then, but over the course of the whole season, they really didn't, they didn't create sub packages for young guys. They didn't force their themselves to play them for a half in every single blowout. Like, they, they really didn't. And I don't know how that might have affected what happened with Fahim Delane or, or Myelin Graham or Aaron Scott or Bryce west or anybody else, but it feels like there's just too many reasons to play young guys now that existed in the past but exist even more now.
- [24:02]
B
Yeah, I, I agree. I don't, I don't know whether, you know, that's on the list of things I'd like to ask Ryan Day that. That's pretty high up on there. Next time we talk to him. It's just like how do you think about playing time for young guys in a world where you could lose half your recruiting class after a year, which is like kind of what happened to them. So, but, but especially but the quarterback conversation relative that has been going on for years, right? Like, C.J. stroud took over as a starter without ever throwing a pass. Kyle McCord, like had the one start against Akron, but like had hardly played. Julian did not play a ton as a true freshman and as as a backup before he became the starter. It doesn't, it doesn't mean the guy's not going to be good and you give him the job. But I just think like there are, there are more difficult decisions that need to be made after every season now that you just be doing yourself a disservice by not playing those guys more to give yourself more information. Yeah.
- [24:52]
A
All right, so Antonio Morales again in this story at the Athletic under the headline, why don't college football programs develop quarterbacks anymore? I mean, anybody can look at this stuff. So I like, double check that. This is the 10 guys, the top 10 quarterbacks in the 247 sports composite ratings for the 2025 season. Okay? They're. Of those 10, three of them were starters as true freshmen. Bryce Underwood at Michigan, who was number one. Malik Washington at Maryland, who was number 10. And Jaren, give it to me again at Cal.
- [25:31]
B
Yeah.
- [25:32]
A
Who committed to Oregon but then left Oregon, like, immediately and went to Cal. So he's both a transfer and a guy who played right away, but he's sort of a little bit like his, his stuff got a little bit goofy, but he's a little bit like, saying it's like he was at a school for like a month and then transferred. So I, I count he's more, more importantly, he's a starter. So two, three of those, three of the 10 have already played. So, like, and they're not going anywhere. They're going to be the starters in 2026. Three guys have transferred this off season. Number four, Houston Longstreet, transferred from USC to LSU. Number five, Deuce Knight, transferred from Auburn to Ole Miss. And number eight, Bryce Baker, transferred from North Carolina to Virginia Tech. So that is three who played and three who sat for a year and then left immediately. And that's sort of what you're talking about, of they are not leaving to be guaranteed starters somewhere.
- [26:25]
B
Yeah, I don't. I mean, I guess. I guess Deuce Knight and the kid from UNC might, might end up starting at their new spots, but, like, Houston Longstreet's not going to LSU to start.
- [26:38]
A
No. Right. Yeah.
- [26:41]
B
I got Sam Levitt out of the portal, so, like that. Yeah, that's, that's a little wonky to me, but. And, like, how often will you see that? I don't know, but I just don't think, like, I don't think that was ever, like, a worry for Ohio State that they were going to lose, like, Tavian to something like that this off season. That would be just be kind of silly to do, frankly, if you're the player.
- [27:03]
A
Right. And, and then whatever it is. And Ohio State has to do right by him, has to invest in him, has to show him the path and do those kind of things. Right. So, because the one thing again that we, you know, just because you're from Ohio doesn't home state discount hometown. I want to be a Buckeye. I'm never going anywhere. Like, that's just not, that's not how it works. Like you, that program owes something to Tavian Sinclair.
- [27:26]
B
That to me is maybe the most interesting part of the conversation. And like we're, there's not a salary cap. Like every team has a budget. And like how much are you really willing to pay your backup quarterback?
- [27:38]
A
Yep.
- [27:40]
B
Because I would imagine that Ohio State is probably up there in terms of what their both teams are paying backup quarterbacks this year because they want to keep Tavian in the program. And like, if you're doing that, like, where does, where what does that take away from? Right. I think that that is, and that's sort of like that's, that's kind of touched on in the story that Antonio wrote. Like, I think, I think that is very much at play for a lot of teams as they consider this the situation. Like, can we actually afford to have two five star guys on our roster at one time?
- [28:10]
A
Right. Because that's the thing that's in the NFL. You are not paying your backup quarterback to eventually be your starting quarterback.
- [28:20]
B
Right.
- [28:20]
A
Right. Or, or if you are, it's because that's your number one pick and then your paying some old veteran to start for one year. But then you're, you're not paying two, two number one picks to be quarterbacks. You're not paying two, five stars to be quarterbacks where that's what Ohio State's doing right now.
- [28:35]
B
So in a bit of a specialized situation too because of how close they are in eligibility. Right. Like, because I think you can stomach it. Because there's the price you pay to get the guy on your roster and then there's the price to pay to keep him for an extra year as a backup, which is, which is a higher number, I would imagine. And that's like the, you know, maybe that's not the situation you would encounter all the time, but it's kind of the one that Ohio State's in right now.
- [28:58]
A
And this is also one of those like so for instance, usc, Houston, Longstreet, right. They paid him this year as a five star future starter, but Jade Maeva is coming back in 2026, so they would have had to pay him a second year as a five star future starter before he became the starter at LSU. They didn't pay Houston Longstreet anything this year. So now they could pay him one year as a five star future starter, but they're not paying two years of it. Right. And the, the kid also sort of, I think you reset your expectations, you reset your frustrations. And so he sort of is a true freshman in LSU's mind. Yeah, right. That we got to pay. Whereas. And then even for usc, it's like, well, we paid this guy. So if Houston Longstreet's frustrated or he wants to play and maybe he wants more, and USC is like, well, we already paid you this to not play and now, now you want a raise to still not play. Like, what are we doing? And LSU's like, we didn't pay you anything. We'll give you a raise to not play because we're only paying you for one year. And it's just like it does. You start to understand why there might be movement for the sake of movement, because both for the player and the team, it's hard to sit and get a lot of money for two years. And it is hard, I think, to, to come to an agreement on should I get paid more to sit. Like, I want to raise an year too, because you're not letting me play. And it's like, well, we can't pay you more than the guys who are. Actually, it really is hard.
- [30:29]
B
It's just hard.
- [30:30]
A
This is where I think it's the most different than the NFL. This particular, the backup quarterback, future starter. How long are you sitting? How much are we paying you? Conversation is very complicated in college.
- [30:41]
B
It is. And to be clear, like, neither one of us are saying that Tavian Sinclair or his people went to Ohio State this off season and demanded a raise. Just like speaking generally about this situation, we could see where that would happen at any place where a kid of that caliber found himself in a similar position. But I do think that's the reason why you're going to see teams space out the quarterbacks. More high school recruiting. Yes. Right. Like, it's just, it's just, it's math. Right, right. You can't, you're just, you're kind of throwing, throwing money away now. I think Ohio State was, was one, not 100 in that world, but had the opportunity to roster Tavian and Julian and two, now that they're in it, I think willing to bite that bullet because of what the long term gain for it might be. But I don't think any team's going to be willing to, to, you know, put itself in that situation routinely moving forward.
- [31:33]
A
I Want to make the final point about this. This the top 10 quarterbacks from the class of 2012. But let me. 2025, let me give you one more hypothetical. Nick Saban doesn't retire. Julian Saying stays at Alabama. Ohio State's recruit in that class is Aaron Nolan too. It seems like it hasn't really worked out for. Because he was at Ohio State for a year. Then he went to South Carolina and didn't really get on the field. Kind of got jumped, you know, didn't just not win the job, but got jumped by somebody else and now he has transferred again. So I don't know. Just watching how it unfolded for Air Noland, if Julian sand had not become available because the greatest college football coach of all time hadn't retired, Aaron Nolan was the guy that Ohio State got. Do you think Aaron Noland would have been the starting quarterback for Ohio State in 2025?
- [32:21]
B
No, I think it would have been. I think they would have brought in a transfer. Yeah, they would have brought in a transfer to compete, honestly, probably like compete with Lincoln Keenholtz. And I would assume that that would have been a pretty high quality transfer and that that transfer would have won. And then we would have been going into this season with redshirt freshman Tavian Sinclair ready to take over the offense.
- [32:42]
A
Right. And so that would have. So like this, this just because. Because what are you supposed to do? Not take Julian Saying. Right, because it throws off your stack like no, you. You add to the stacks of Jungkook Tower. It's a little tilted, but you got to manage that, baby. But then, I mean there are scenarios. Well then we'd be sitting here like just Tavian would be in the exact same position that Julian sand was going into 2025, which is like you're a five star. In year one you were the backup and now in year two you're expected to start. Let's go. And it all would have been normal. Here are the other four guys. So there's three who played as true freshmen. There's three who transferred. The other four top 10 quarterbacks in the class of 2025. Keelan Russell at Alabama was number two. Ty Simpson was a starter at Alabama this year. He's gone. Alabama, they made a deal of like both our quarterbacks are staying. So there's going to be Austin Mack, who's a veteran, and Russell as a second year guy competing for the job at Alabama in 2026. But there's not an incumbent. So Keelan Russell, as opposed to Tavian Sinclair has a Very clear path to the job. It's in his hands. Go win the job. That's very different than tsc, right?
- [33:54]
B
Yeah. Yeah. I don't, I don't anticipate Ryan Day opening up the quarterback job this off season.
- [33:58]
A
Right. The number six quarterback in that class is Julian Lewis from Colorado, who basically is the projected starter and played some. Played a little bit this year at Colorado, but it's basically his job for 2026. And I think that's, that's pretty apparent to everybody. And then number nine is Matt Zoller's at Missouri, who started the year as number three, but the one guy in their quarterback competition got hurt. Right. Right away. And then Bo Peula was the starter and now Bo Pebula has transferred. Matt Zoller's played in the bowl game and wasn't very good, I guess. So Missouri brought in Austin Simmons, who was the Ole Miss quarterback who got hurt. That opened the door for Trinidad Chambliss. So it, I think just reading Missouri writers, it feels like they think maybe Austin Simmons is going to be the starter and that Matt Zollers is going to get bumped a little bit. But also he's the number nine quarterback in the class, not the number three quarterback in the class like Tavian Sinclair. And he did have a chance to play in the bowl game and maybe didn't. Didn't seize it.
- [34:58]
B
Yeah, well, that's, that's part of what I'm saying about, like, the Missouri played him. They, maybe they didn't want to play him. They were kind of forced to play him, but they played him and they got good information. And the good information was this guy, this guy can't be our starter or we can't only roll with this guy, so we got to bring in somebody to compete with them. So, like, that's, that's what I'm talking about when I say, like, you gotta, you gotta find ways to play these young guys. It's not. You don't have to give them spot stars for the sake of doing so, but I think any, any game reps where you like actually let them run the offense, no matter who the caliber of opponent is, can be. Can be pretty beneficial to the player and to the staff who's trying to make that decision.
- [35:34]
A
So the bottom line is, of the top 10 quarterbacks in his class, nobody is in the situation that Tavia Sinclair is in.
- [35:40]
B
Yes.
- [35:42]
A
And that doesn't mean it can't work, but we're just noting it that this is not his situation is a little more complicated. Because three have played, three have transferred. And of the other three that have not played and have not transferred, like two have clear passed to the job and one maybe kind of already got enough of a chance and didn't take it. So there are other guys in that class. Ryan Montgomery, Luke Montgomery's brother, Ohio kid who's at Georgia. He was number 13. Quarterback. He's more like Tavian Sinclair. Right. There's just like Gunner Stockton's still there. He's not going anywhere. So Ryan Montgomery doesn't seem to be going anywhere either. Achilles Smith Jr. At Oregon is there. He said, like it's all part of the plan. They, Dante Moore is back. They brought in Dylan Raiola and Achilles Smith Jr. Whose dad played at Oregon, is there and not going anywhere. And then K.J. lacy of Texas is another guy who was like in that next 10 who, Arch is still there. He's not starting this year. But he didn't immediately get out the door. But again, so, so I wanted to bring up those three guys, Bill, because that's Georgia, Oregon, Texas, those are blue blood programs. Those are talent laden programs. Those are programs that have to spend and maybe they're good comparisons for Ohio State. And like we can navigate this better than some other schools because of our resources, because of the way that we can explain to a player your time is coming. It's not in year two, but your time is coming. But also none of those three quarterbacks at Oregon, Texas or Georgia are as good as Tavian Sinclair.
- [37:18]
B
Yeah. Which I think is like, brings me back to my point where of like, if he were, if, if this were not a special circumstance of this kid being from 40 minutes from Columbus, like, I just, we wouldn't be having this conversation. I think he'd already be gone. So, and that's, I, I say that like in no way pejoratively, like, about like the idea of Florida. Tavian, I just think, I just think that's, that's, that's very much the, the nature of the position. And I think he would be viewed similarly to how like LSU viewed Houston Longstreet. Like maybe, maybe we're not paying him to come be the starter right now, but we're comfortable paying him to be the backup for one year instead of two. But Ohio State is doing that now. I, I don't know. I think, I think it's going to work out. You know, famous, famous last words. I suppose we could now have the 45 minute conversation about what happens if Julian Sinclair is good but not good enough to Go to the NFL after this year.
- [38:07]
A
Julian. Julian. Yeah. Yeah. Well, all our heads are explode. But, yeah, but that's. That's the real conversation. And again, the very first story that I wrote for our substack, when you allowed me to join, when you were like, hey, I started the substack and I was like, I don't have a job. Can I come join you, please? Was saying that Tavian Sinclair is Arch Manning. And so that is the thing of that, because Quinn Ewers had another year of eligibility that he could have taken. Right. And he chose not to. But it was pretty clear that Texas wasn't exactly like, take it here, right?
- [38:43]
B
Yes.
- [38:45]
A
That it was. Arch sat for two years and year three, it was time for Arch to play, and Arch Manning was going to be the Texas starter in 2025, and Quinn Ewers, instead of being a seventh round draft pick, could have gone to be the starter at Michigan or a million other places. Right? So if Julian sand doesn't want to go to the NFL, then it's. It's year three. Julian sand, which is all Ryan Day in his life wants is three years with the same quarterback. Oh, my God. He's been, like, not complaining about that, but, like, pining for that ever since he got the job. Ever since as an offensive coordinator. He had Dwayne Haskins just for one year, but then he had Justin Fields for two, and he wanted him for three. He had C.J. stroud for two, and he wanted him for three. Right? So this would be the opportunity. A third year of Julian saying, but a third year of Julian sand means no years of Tavian Sinclair as a starter. And that would be rubber hits the road time of Ryan Day. It's Ryan Day's choice. Ryan Day making a choice between a third year of Julian sand or finally going to Tavian Sinclair, who's been biding his time, developing, learning, being a good Buckeye, and it's his turn to be a starter in year three. So year three, saying year one, Tavian Sinclair again. Four hour show.
- [40:04]
B
Yeah, we don't have to go down all those hypotheticals now, but I will say, like, that, that scenario to me is, I think, the far more difficult one for Ohio State should encounter than. Than the. Should we go bring in a transfer for 2027, assuming Julian goes to the league. Because I, I do. I think. I think that answer is no. Unless, you know, Tavian's not the player we think he is. I have no reason to believe that. Like, I think he's the starter in 20, 27. As long as Julian saying decides he wants to go to the NFL and if he doesn't, that, that is, that is the difficult decision that they'll be Ohio Stately facing. More likely. What would I do? I play them both. Two quarterback system. Chris leaked him. Debo, get Urban on the horn, bring him down here. How do you manage this? I'm kidding. For real.
- [40:55]
A
That's a great answer. I was like, I was like, are you getting out of answering that question or did you just solve the problem?
- [41:03]
B
I don't, I don't know. I would. I, I can't answer that question without seeing how Julian plays this year. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [41:11]
A
Because it is, because that's the thing. That's like, because, because in the moment, like a lot of people thought that Quinn, you were sure to stayed in school, not stayed in school, should have stayed in school and gotten a master's degree. Quinn Ewers should have remained in college, taken that nil money and then maybe tried a chance to try to lift his draft stock instead of being, as it turned out, a seventh round pick. Maybe that guy was like, that guy had been around. He, you know, he was a three year starter at Texas. He might have just been tired of playing college football.
- [41:37]
B
Also worth mentioning that Julian already is significantly better than Quinn Ewers.
- [41:41]
A
So yes, true, is, is above seventh round draft pick status, But I think again, to go back to Gavi, I, I think if that question is, is Ohio State, am I worried that Ohio State's going to go get a transfer and block Tavian Sinclair? We're saying probably don't be worried about that.
- [42:04]
B
I'm not, I'm not super worried about that.
- [42:06]
A
No. And, and then the only thing would be like if, if it's, it's that the coaches are seeing things in practice nobody else is seeing that is like we can't do this right. And that it's, there's some degree of this. We don't see it on the field. Game reps are different. But if coaches are saying like this, a guy is leaving because he's frustrated or angry or worried that he's not going to be a starter, that he's not being paid like a starter, and we're basing that off our evaluations of what we've seen in practice and so they know that we don't. So if that would be the situation for any player, for any quarterback, if you've been sitting for two years and there's an opening, the job is open for year three and they're saying, I don't know if it's you. They've been questioning what you've been showing them. It's not just like, you know what, we need an old guy. So I think if that's, if that's what you're worried about, don't be worried about it. If you are, if you want to tie yourself on a knot. Thinking about the possible complications of a third year of Julian sand versus the first year starting for Tavian Sinclair, that might very easily solve itself. But if it doesn't, it's a great problem to have. Right. Like I don't. It would.
- [43:16]
B
Yeah, I guess, I guess. Speaking of someone who wouldn't have to make the decision. Sure.
- [43:21]
A
But the answer is it's not that. So the answer would be Ohio State would believe that it will have a good quarterback in 2027, regardless whether it's third year Tavian St. Clair is a first year starter or third year starter Julian Sand. They would believe in their choice. It would be painful to lose one because both you would expect would be good. It that's the painful. It's not like, oh God, we don't have a quarterback. What are we going to do? So given this, I mean in Ohio State just might be and they're going to start stacking it like their stack probably this, this saying Sinclair thing is a little bit of a one time stack issue and then they'll get it stacked and they probably will more go like 5 star, 3 star, 5 star, 3 star doesn't mean a 3 star can't win the job, all of that. But they'll probably get their stack on and then they just, they just might be the exception and they might be one of the last places that wants to develop quarterbacks, wants to play young quarterbacks, does not want to rely on the transfer portal and they might be very happy to be that exception to the rule.
- [44:28]
B
Yeah, I, I'm, I think at the moment they would be. Yeah. If they have to make that hypothetical tough decision after this season, maybe not. But I do think, I do think it'll be a good, it's, you know, it's one of those things where it's like as long as I make the right decision, it's a good problem to have. Yeah. So I don't know. I also think there's like, you know, I think there's like a non zero chance that at some point this off season the staff thinks the light's coming on for Tavian and like there's not a push for him to get on the field this year. Like, I know I don't think he's going to unseat Julian. That's not the prediction that I'm making. But I think like that clearly the talent is there for him to start to make that jump as he goes into his second season. And then I think it'll be something important for us to monitor. Right. Like how do people talk about Tavian? What are we able to see ourselves when we get to watch whatever we get to watch at Lake Spring practice and those kind of things to monitor the direction where this is going. But at the moment, I think it's like, yeah, it's, it's, it's almost all good for Ohio State to be in the position they're in with the quarterback spot.
- [45:34]
A
And honestly, like the, the headline, why don't college football programs develop quarterbacks anymore? You could almost put parentheses, except for Ohio State, except for Ohio, behind that. Right. It really, if we're looking for a group of programs that are going to be the exception, it might be one or two really. But if there are going to be any, it's going to be Ohio State at the top of that list because of its ability to recruit and develop quarterbacks because their head coaches and offensive minded former quarterback who wants to do that kind of thing because they have receivers still that attract quarterbacks because they do like this, they're hiring NFL offensive coordinators. This would be a place that high school quarterbacks want to come to. And, but it's interesting to think about. And the bottom line is you, you just as Ohio said, I think you have to acknowledge that like it is a, in whatever way it is, it is an edge for other teams that they are, they are not, they don't, they're not. If those teams that you're competing against aren't developing quarterbacks, don't have to develop quarterbacks. That is a bit of an advantage for them. But it's your, it's an edge you're willing to give up because like, that's, that's just not what you are choosing to do. Right?
- [46:42]
B
Yeah.
- [46:43]
A
Kurt Signetti did not have to. Mike Shanahan and Kurtz did not have to teach Fernando Mendoza how to play quarterback in the same way that Ryan Day and Billy Fessler had to teach Julian sand to play quarterback on the college level. Right. So that's an advantage for Indiana. But that, okay, fine, it's an advantage for Indiana in that one specific way. It doesn't mean Ohio State's then going to follow that path.
- [47:02]
B
Yeah, I, and I think like, how, how Julian plays this year too, I think could, could impact this in a different way or like it's just from the perspective of like telling Ohio State whether or not it's worth it. Right. Like, because I think, you know, rolling with C.J. early and then seeing what he was in 2022, like what he was at the end of 2022 and that game he played against Georgia as a, as a sort of like weathered experience quarterback. Worth it, right? Absolutely worth it. And I don't think that means that Julian has to like go win a national title this year for Heiser to think it was worth it. But like if he, if he whatever, took some version of lumps as a, as a retro freshman starter, especially toward the end of that season and he's better for it this year and you see that growth and he's no doubt one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the sport. I think Ohio State will, will have considered that journey worth it. And then I think that only, you know, enhances the opportunity for saving to take over as a first time starter in 2027.
- [48:00]
A
We'll wrap it up there. We'll continue to take some of these questions from our Substack subscribers and bring them out here and have deeper, longer discussions on them. So thanks to Gavi S for providing that. Thanks to Antonio Morales for writing that story that like paired nicely with the question. If you want to be. I mean, we're just, we're taking the questions from our subscribers over on Substack, so if you want to come join us over there, we'd love to have you. Billanddouggosu.substack.com and then you get to interact with us in this way. We do a bunch of, we do like one or two extra shows over there per week. We write over there, we interact, we take questions, that kind of thing. And then we also, of course are going to keep doing this through the off season, the YouTube show, the podcast feeds. And we're grateful for everybody who's here for now. Thanks for joining us. He's Bill Landis on Doug lemaris and that was the Bill and Doug show.