← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Notre Dame vs. Pitt, Texas vs. Georgia, Iowa vs. USC and more: National College Football Picks
00:50:16
Six college football previews and picks are featured on this episode, including two games that should tell us just how good Notre Dame and Michigan are. That's Notre Dame at Pitt and Michigan at Northwestern, at Wrigley Field, both at noon eastern on Saturday.
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- [00:00]
Bill Landis
Foreign Back to the Bill and Doug show. Douglas, Maurice and Ball Knower. Bill Landis here for your national picks. Six national games Bill, that we are going to pick this week. Oregon, Minnesota, Notre Dame, Pit, Michigan, Northwestern, usc, Iowa, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Oklahoma and I'll let you tell the folks how how you did on the picks last week that you talked about on this show.
- [00:30]
Doug Le Maurice
I was told that I I went 6 and 1 if you include the our Ohio State pick. Right. The Ohio State game was the only one I got wrong. So 60 on the national picks against the spread but not, not outright.
- [00:42]
Bill Landis
Right?
- [00:42]
Doug Le Maurice
I think I did have some outright losses in there.
- [00:45]
Bill Landis
I know you don't include that part. Just include the part where you was 6 and O against the spread in the national games. No, I don't. Well yeah you didn't pick Wisconsin to actually beat Washington but you did pick Wisconsin plus 11 and a half. So overall we do, we do the national picks. We do an Ohio State show on Thursdays that I'm sure many of you take in. Maybe not all of you. We do include that pick in our overall total. So you were six and one last week overall I was four and three which I'll take. Let's go last week overall for the season against the spread you are now 41 and 36 which is you went from 500 to well above it. I am 35 and 42 so I would like to get out of that hole. You are six games ahead of me. We're going to pick six here.
- [01:32]
Doug Le Maurice
You're striking distance though. You can get there.
- [01:35]
Bill Landis
Well, thank you for saying that. The thing that happened last week is that that you I, I thought Washington and Oregon on the road would take care of business and you took those home dogs and Iowa covered and Wisconsin won outright and so that was, that was well done by you. It was. It was an interesting weather weekend in the Big Ten but it was also just sort of like home field advantage, some good defenses. Life ain't easy. And it's same thing like even Purdue covered at home against Ohio State right back door cover. So like that was, that was the way to go last week. I'm curious to see where you land this week. We're going to say the SEC games for the end. I really want to do delve in on Notre Dame pit and I'm very curious to see what your thoughts are on that. But we're going to start with Oregon, Minnesota because this is bill a Friday night game and it is a little bit of a weird spot for Oregon because Oregon had a bunch of injuries last week and now they have a short week to deal with them. Oregon at home is favored by 25 and a half over Minnesota. This game is on Fox at 9pm Eastern on Friday. These teams haven't met since 2003. Oh wow. Back then when they met Oregon by like sort of fbs. This is a site that I use like FBS winning percentage all time. Right. Of all the FBS programs back when they met in a bowl game, they met in back to back sun bowls, I believe in 1999 and 2003. So that's the history. Overall, Minnesota leads this series with Oregon 3 to 1. Back then Minnesota was had the 35th best win percentage all time in FBS. Oregon had the 56th best winning percentage in FBS. And back then like in 2003, they had had one good. Oregon had a really good year, like an 11 and one year under Mike Bellotti two years earlier. But back then Minnesota has these national titles from the 60s. And so you would have said, well, Minnesota is the better football program. And I don't know who you would have picked for the future. Like who would you rather be going forward, Minnesota or Oregon? It's the be. It's like Mike Bilotti. Like I think Chip Kelly's. There's the oc But Oregon was just maybe starting to become Oregon.
- [03:55]
Doug Le Maurice
I'm looking to see what your Chip got there. Chip got to Oregon. Chip didn't get to Oregon until 2007.
- [04:03]
Bill Landis
Okay, so no Chip yet. So this is just like Mike Bellotti, good coach, no revolutionary offense. And my point is since then, by winning percentage, Oregon's in the top 10 and Minnesota's in the 60s. So it's not exactly a line in the sand. But it just struck me as I thought about like, oh, in 1999 and 2003, the good people of El Paso got Oregon, Minnesota, Sun Bowls. And I'm sure they were like, God, Oregon, Minnesota.
- [04:30]
Doug Le Maurice
But you know, no, I, I bet a lot of people back then too would have said, would have picked Minnesota, right? Just because like the whatever the Big Ten thing. And no one knew Chip Kelly was at that point. That's funny actually. What made you look that up? Was there like a something, was it in the game notes somewhere? You're just like, I want to see what this was.
- [04:49]
Bill Landis
I just looked at their history against each other.
- [04:52]
Doug Le Maurice
Okay.
- [04:52]
Bill Landis
And when I saw like two Sun Bowls in five years and then I thought, I wonder what people thought Oregon and Minnesota were back then. Yeah, let's go check and then that's what they are. That doesn't really matter, but it's just an interesting, like, you think about, you think about this matchup. Oregon is coming off a weird game at Iowa in the rain. Their three best pass catchers and their right tackle were all injured in that game. Decorian Moore, their leading receiver, reportedly tweaked his knee in practice, didn't play against Iowa. Kenyon Sadiq was questionable. Their great tight end, one of the best tight ends in the country, was questionable on the injury report, didn't play against Iowa. Alex Harkey, the right tackle, a rolled ankle, I guess the week before, was questionable on the injury report, did not play against Iowa. And Gary Bryant Jr. Who's their third leading receiver, had one catch, got hurt, got carted off, and didn't return. Although I guess reportedly he was like walking to the locker room. So Dan Lanning basically said, like, I'm not really talking about that stuff. So we don't know exactly what the health situation is for Oregon. It is a short week. It is probably gonna rain in Oregon on Friday night. It's like 80% chance of rain. Oregon's in a goofy spot.
- [06:14]
Doug Le Maurice
Is it? I don't know that they are like, speak to it. I, I would, I would think, I would probably agree with you if Oregon wasn't so good at running the ball right, like, if, if I just don't know. Like all those injuries you're laying out, I don't think terribly impact the thing that Oregon does best, which is like kind of push you around and run it. And Minnesota is like, run defense overall is not bad, but Minnesota's run defense against good teams is bad. So, so I, I, I don't know that I'm there. Like, maybe it's a big, it's a big spread. So, so maybe a Minnesota cover is, is on the table. But I don't think like any kind of weirdness is, is in store for this game. I just think, I think Oregon's too good.
- [07:02]
Bill Landis
Oregon has run the ball on basically everybody except Indiana in their loss to Indiana. Oklahoma State, 312 rushing yards, 8.4 yards per carry. Northwestern, 176, 5.9 yards per carry. Oregon State 286.1 yards. Penn State 176 4.5 yards. Indiana. Well done by Indiana. Held him to 81 rushing yards. 2.7. Last three games, Rutgers, 415 rushing yards for Oregon, 11.2 yards per carry, 203 yards two games ago, 4.5 yards per carry. And then Iowa 261 rushing yards, 7.3 yards per carry. So like this is Jordan Davison emerging. This is Kyle Whittington doing what he does. This is Dier Hill being a nice little mix in here. This is a pretty good offensive line. And their rushing success rate I think isn't quite as good as USC, but their combination of efficiency and explosiveness. Oregon has 26 rushing plays of 20 yards or more that leads the nation. I talked about their, the run game last week. Like you're in, you're in on this Oregon rushing attack. Very.
- [08:19]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, very well. Yeah. I mean in a game like this, certainly I think it's good to point out the fact that they didn't run it as well against Indiana. I don't know that, that Oregon's gonna like go to the playoff and hang 250 rushing yards a game on everybody and win a national title. Although maybe they will. But I, yeah, I think this offensive line, the stable of backs is going to be difficult for most teams who aren't in the top whatever three or four of the Big Ten to handle.
- [08:48]
Bill Landis
Dante Moore is also pretty good. Made the throw against Iowa that, that set up the game winning field goal. For all the things they did, you guys saw it by now. For all the things they did on the ground, they did have to throw in the rain to find a way to win that game. And, but again it's, it's. And I have not yet responded to it. Maybe I will have by the time you guys watch this. Al.com wrote a column about Oregon being overrated. Like it's just so vastly incorrect. But if we're just like, we're just going to like do this thing right? And, and, and listen, you know, they barely won last week. Iowa has the fourth best defense in the country according to the Brian Fromau ratings. It was a downpour. Their three best pass catchers were out and the right tackle was out. And they find they found a way to win on the road against a top 25 team in a tough stadium to play in. And if you come out of that and think like Oregon overrated, I, it's just like factually wrong. Right? And if someone wants to really dive into like what I'm calling the SEC mid and it's like, Doug, you don't understand what it takes. Okay? They can do that to me, that's fine. But there's nothing like this, like this. Like, if you don't appreciate this doesn't mean Oregon's perfect. But that was a, that was a game that was there to be lost and they found a way to win. And if they, they get healthy at all, I would expect Alex Hary is back. The right tackle, I think is back. The, the guys, you know that like, that Kenyon Sadiq almost played like was questionable last week. I would imagine he'll probably be back. So I don't think like all four guys they missed against Iowa will still be out against Minnesota. And with that rushing attack, even if it's rainy, it'll be rainy at home. I'm kind of wondering if we see like you want to see what's up. Like we survived last week. Now we're going to show you what's up. And then by the way, it's USC versus Oregon next week.
- [10:43]
Doug Le Maurice
Do you think Oregon is at, at all in any position of especially being banged up and like the two games after this are hardly a guarantee in terms of wins that they're going to try to make it sting in this one. Just like from a, from an eye test perspective in case they might need it down the road.
- [11:03]
Bill Landis
Yeah. So they've had some dominant wins, but also like they had the Iowa game last week. They had a close one with Wisconsin the week before. It would not be a bad time to impress the committee. Right. That's kind of what you're saying. I can buy that. I can buy that idea. Is that kind of where you are vibing here with, with where.
- [11:21]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah.
- [11:22]
Bill Landis
Oregon is.
- [11:22]
Doug Le Maurice
I mean, not, not, not, not like just like a dominant win, nothing crazy. The other, the thing we haven't said. So there are the four best defenses in the Big Ten are Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa and Oregon. Minnesota has played two of them so far, Ohio State and Iowa, and scored a combined six points in both those games.
- [11:44]
Bill Landis
Yep.
- [11:44]
Doug Le Maurice
So. So I think they're getting a field goal and nothing else in this game too. I have, I have Oregon winning 38, 3.
- [11:51]
Bill Landis
38 to 3. I have 42 to 10 Oregon. So this is one of those where it, you see the number, you see the 25 and a half and I think it can be tempting to try to grab that in the rain. You know, like short week for Oregon. But I actually think not. I think, I think more to your point, they wouldn't mind some, some impressive things here to show the committee. To show the committee, which is down to 11 people for the moment. Because, because I mean by the end, the College Football Playoff committee, selection committee by the end is going to be like Mark d' Antonio and a six pack of Diet Coke just going like, who Should I put in what a God. Can we find some adults? Are there any adults in college football who can be tasked with this responsibility? Get sitting ads. I'm going to save it. I can rant about it on Monday or Tuesday.
- [12:40]
Doug Le Maurice
I just want to know, like, why is it not a permanent position?
- [12:43]
Bill Landis
Get the sitting IDs off the committee.
- [12:45]
Doug Le Maurice
Why are we cycling through people? For the committee, sure. But like, for the chair, I think should be like, this is your full time job.
- [12:52]
Bill Landis
Yeah, no, I agree. So it should. It's just so stupid. Like it. Does it matter or not? Does it matter or is it like a side hustle that you, you might not be able to do if you work? Side hustle. All right, so we think Oregon covers this. Foreign. I want to dive in on Notre Dame pit. This is a noon kickoff on abc. Or as I like to call it, the black screen on my TV. 12 and a half. Pit is getting 12 and a half at home against Notre Dame. Notre Dame has won four straight in this series. The last two by a combined score of 103 to 10. For Notre Dame, people making a bit of PIT, coach Pat Norduzzi being asked, like, is this a must win game? Said it absolutely not. It's not an ACC game. I'm glad you brought that up. It's not an ACC game. I'd gladly get beat 103 or 110 to 10 in that game. They could put up 100 on us as long as we win the next two after that. So, like, people are, you know, seizing on that, right? No, he was. I mean, of course. Yeah. But also, this is what coaches do. Like, you can't call a thing a must win when you think you have not much of a chance of winning. Like, it's just counterproductive. And he's also right because Pitt has games with Georgia Tech and Miami remaining. I want to talk about the ACC race a little bit with Pitt. But anyway, like, they have a shot. They have a playoff shot. And for sure, beating Notre Dame doesn't influence that. So. And also Notre Dame is good. So this is, this is a 12 and a half point line at Pittsburgh. You. We talked about possible upsets on our Tuesday night playoff show. And this is the game you threw out there. Give me how. You don't tell me your pick. You don't. But give me your theory of the case about how this game matches up.
- [14:48]
Doug Le Maurice
Pitt has the number one rush defense in the country by yards per carry. I think it's a little.
- [14:54]
Bill Landis
It's linebackers, brother.
- [14:55]
Doug Le Maurice
Who it's skewed a little bit because there's a couple. I think, like Stanford ended up with like negative rushing yards against Pittsburgh, and there's a couple games because of sacks that like, get like below 50. But. And then you look at other games, I think like Florida State ran it okay against some. North Carolina State, I think ran it okay against them. So it's not like they've shut everybody down, but they played. They just. There are games where it can really get away from the opponent and there's a bunch of tackles for loss and sacks, but I think it's a good, It's a good aggressive defensive front.
- [15:20]
Bill Landis
Right?
- [15:21]
Doug Le Maurice
And I think that's. That's probably what it is. You and I were at the game at PIT last year when Kyle McCourt threw five interceptions and three of them were. Three of them were pick six. Pick sixes. Right? I. I think pick, like on the right day can do that though. Maybe anyone in the country with the way that they play, it's hard to replicate, obviously, but. But I, it's hard for me to get that out of my head. I think the PIT defense is up for it. And I also think the fact that like, whatever, Pat Narduzzi is joking, but the fact that it really doesn't matter, I think they can be like, hyper aggressive, just like throw everything at Notre Dame. And if you lose, you lose, who cares? It actually doesn't impact you trying to make the playoff because you're still alive in the ACC race right now. It can get you run off the field too. And I guess maybe you want to guard against that, but I don't think that would matter either if, like, if it's like a three loss team that wins the acc, they're going to the playoffs.
- [16:11]
Bill Landis
So.
- [16:14]
Doug Le Maurice
I just, I've gone back and forth on it. Like, what do I think pick and like actually win or will actually win, But I think they can. I think the spread's like a little too wide for a, for a team that plays defense as good as. As good as PIT does. And I'm a little unsure of like CJ Carr if he's getting heated up. Like what exactly that looks like. If you look at his numbers against pressure, they're actually not that good. So.
- [16:36]
Bill Landis
Okay.
- [16:38]
Doug Le Maurice
I think that. I think there is definitely a pathway for PIT to win.
- [16:42]
Bill Landis
Kyle Lewis, Rasheen Biles, Braylon Lovelace, as good as any linebacker group out there. I mean, obviously Sonny Styles, Norvell Reese at Ohio State, you probably start with them, but Kyle Lewis is an All American. Biles and Lovelace are real dudes. Couple good corners, their defensive success rate to do your job. Down to down success rate. The only two defenses in the Power 4 that are better are Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Pitts defensive success rate is better than Indiana. It's better than Ohio State. Like as you're pointing out, this is a real defense, a couple decent corners. I think this depends on how good you think Notre Dame is. And I might think that Notre Dame is right this minute. Now listen, they had a crazy game against at Boston College a couple weeks ago that drove Marcus Freeman crazy. I think maybe they felt like they played their best game against Navy like last time out and it's Navy and it was Navy's backup quarterback. But also you got to do what you got to do. And I, I think it felt like they believed everything was kind of clicking. I think with the way C.J. carr as a first time starting quarterback has played after his first couple games. I think Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price at running back, that combo devastating. I think they have multiple receivers they believe in. They're throwing it better than they did last year. I think they're still pretty good on the offensive line. I think their defense has come around since a bad start and I think right now, today just how they're playing. I think Notre Dame might be the third best team in the country behind Ohio State and Indiana.
- [18:24]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, and it's hard. I can't get there. It's hard for me to get there.
- [18:28]
Bill Landis
So. So if, if that's Notre Dame then this is a tall task for Pitt. If you have some questions about Notre Dame then I do think what you laid out about pit defensively they have a chance to expose also in terms of vibes. If pick can let it rip and they don't care, Notre Dame might be tight as a barrel. Like they, they gotta win out or they're out of the playoff. Every game for Notre Dame the rest of the way is a playoff game. They finish with Syracuse and Stanford who are both three and seven. This is the last real test. Now you go, you. I don't know, Andrew Luck might have something waiting for you, but it would be a huge upset. This is like the toughest game they have left and they need to win three straight to make the playoffs. So I don't know if that could play into it. And then the other thing would be since October 1st, so since week six, do you want to guess what power four quarterback is averaging the most passing yards per game since week six?
- [19:33]
Doug Le Maurice
I'm guessing it's either C.J. carr or Mason Heinzel.
- [19:36]
Bill Landis
Okay, it's Julian Saying. Ohio State's Julian saying is averaging 301 passing yards per game since week six. Mason Heinjel's averaging 300, so he's second. So like that's what we're talking about since this freshman from Toledo who we talked about a little bit before on the shows took over as a starting quarterback. They were 2 and 2 when he took over. They are 5, 0 since he took over they have beaten Boston College, Florida State, Syracuse, North Carolina State and Stanford. They've scored 48, 34, 30, 53 and 35 in those games. They have not faced a defense nearly as good as Notre Dame's in that run. Boston College 110th, Florida State 45th. Syracuse 53rd, North Carolina State 83rd, Stanford 60th. Notre Dame is seventh in the promote rankings. So like we get that right, that, that Mason Heinshel hasn't faced this but man, that dude's balling. So you, you, you have a basis, you have a, you have a pit defense as a foundation and then you got this freshman quarterback winging it, man, like this is some real stuff.
- [20:37]
Doug Le Maurice
Pitt's got pit does have real stuff. Notre Dame has 16 interceptions this year on defense and Mason Heinzel has the 10th highest turnover worthy play rate among Power 4 quarterbacks.
- [20:49]
Bill Landis
Okay, that counts.
- [20:51]
Doug Le Maurice
He might get a little, I actually would say he has gotten loose with it and like kind of live to tell about it. Although he does have five interceptions. I mean I, I guess I feel like my, my thesis in the game is like I think either quarterback could throw four picks and whichever one doesn't is going to win.
- [21:08]
Bill Landis
Right? I really like C.J. carr. I, I think C.J. carr is really good since week six, since the start of October. Power 4 Quarterbacks Power Overall PFF Grade Julian Sand 1. Haynes King Georgia Tech 2. Kate Club Clemson 3. C.J. carr Notre Dame 4. C.J. carr is playing really well. Jeremiah Love, their running back is averaging 110 rushing yards per game this season. 6.4 yards per carry combined. Jeremiah Love and Jadarian Price were averaging 173 rushing yards per game last year Notre Dame was 101st in the nation in passing yards per game with Riley Leonard who really was kind of a run first quarterback. They threw for 198 yards per game. This year they're throwing for 272 yards per game. They are 26 in the nation in passing yards per game. They are much more Balanced on offense, Jordan Faison, Malachi Fields, Will Pauling and tight end Eli Raritan. And then Jeremiah Love out of the backfield. Backfield. Five real threats in the passing game. And they had some defensive problems early, but they can get after you. Christian Gray has been picked on, on the opposite corner, opposite Leonard Moore. Usc, which has been the best test for this Notre Dame defense recently, like through at Christian Gray 15 times. They targeted great Christian Gray 15 times that game, they targeted Leonard Moore five times, and Christian Gray did not have a good game. And then he's been hurt for the past two games, but he's supposed to be back for this one. I would assume Pitt and everybody else will try to do that. But I do think Notre Dame can get pressure on you defensively, and they have one excellent corner. And then offensively, I think they're balanced and their young quarterback is gaining more and more confidence. And they have the best running back in college football or one of the best three running backs in college football. I think Notre Dame has a lot. I think Notre Dame has a lot. Do you have questions? Since they started out against Miami and Texas A M, they gave up 27 to Miami in an opening week loss. They gave up 40 to Texas A&M in a Week 2 loss, and they gave up 30 to Purdue. 27, 40, 30. Since then, they've given up an average of 12 points per game against Arkansas, Boise State, NC State, USC, Boston College and Navy. Jade Maeve for USC did throw for 328 on them. But the USC run game is really efficient. They held USC to 2.3 yards per carry, 68 rushing yards overall. Do you still have real questions about the Notre Dame defense? Do you think they've been answered?
- [23:45]
Doug Le Maurice
No, I still have questions. A question about the secondary, like, can they actually stop a team that's good at throwing from. From throwing them? USC had two picks in that game. I think one might have been, like, going in the score, I think, or like kind of in that area, which my Jada Mayaba has done a couple times this year. So, like, yards per attempt are up there. Like in that game, they were fairly high. The A M game, they were high. The Purdue game, actually, they were kind of high, even though Notre Dame won that game pretty comfortably in the end. So, yeah, I still. I. I don't actually know how good this past defense is. I think that, like, the front seven is good, like stopping the run. Sure. But I think potentially a team like Pitt could have some success throwing on them. But. But it's More of like a longer term question for me too. It's like once assuming Notre Dame gets into the playoff, like can it stop a team like Ohio State from throwing it on him? Can it stop like in Alabama from throwing it on? I still have questions like that about this defense.
- [24:40]
Bill Landis
This is a great game because if Notre Dame is the Notre Dame that you're projecting, then Pitt has a chance. Pitt has a real chance. And that would upend the playoff race. It would be a tremendous win for Pitt. It'll be a great game for everybody to watch. If Notre Dame is the team that I'm projecting, I think people could walk away from this game saying, I think Notre Dame can win the national championship. Ohio State's awesome, Indiana's awesome. I'll tell you what, this CJ Car guy, this run game, multiple receivers and I think this defense has come around. Like, I really like Notre Dame. I think we're going to get closer to the second. Do you think we're going to get closer to the first scenario?
- [25:30]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, I think we're going to get a close game.
- [25:32]
Bill Landis
Okay.
- [25:32]
Doug Le Maurice
I think, I think it's about Pitts defense. I think like the, the tenacity, the aggressiveness. They tackle really well for being a team that's as aggressive as them by like, pff. Tackling grade. They have the fifth highest tackling grade in the country, which is obviously key against running backs like Jeremiah Love a Jadarian Price. So I don't, I don't think they're going to shut down Notre Dame, but I think they're going to hang with Notre Dame.
- [25:55]
Bill Landis
Okay. I'm really looking forward to this game.
- [26:01]
Doug Le Maurice
Me too.
- [26:02]
Bill Landis
I don't think it will be a blowout, but I'm gonna get. I'm gonna take Notre Dame and give the points. I'm going to say 31, 16, Notre Dame. And the thing that we have laid out here is Pitt's good. And so if Notre Dame does get a convincing win, I think people have to respect that. I don't think this is like, ah, they just played a lousy skid. Like Pitt's got a quarterback who's throwing it around and a really good defense. So that means that they could give Notre Dame a game or let's give Notre Dame respect if they handle it. So I'll say Notre Dame 3116. What do you got?
- [26:33]
Doug Le Maurice
I have the same Notre Dame number as you, but I'm 31 28.
- [26:37]
Bill Landis
Okay. Man, that's a banger. All right. I'll be at your house to Watch that. All right, this one we. We want to talk about Michigan and Northwestern. This is at Wrigley Field. This is Michigan favored by 11 and a half. This is on Fox at noon. Big noon's gonna be hang in Wrigleyville. Michigan's won 13 of the last 14 against Northwestern. Only win for Northwestern in 2008. Michigan's coming off an off week. Almost lost to Purdue last time out. Michigan was only up 14:10 entering the fourth quarter and stopped Purdue on fourth down at midfield to kind of put that game away. But they also were pretty hurt in that game. Jimmy Roller, one of their really good linebackers, didn't play. Jay on Barham, only played two snaps in that game. They should be back. I think it sounds like Rod Moore has been out as of late at safety, really good safety. They, it seems like they think maybe he maybe could be back. Donovan McCully, their number one receiver. Marlon Klein, their tight end, both went out in the last game against Purdue with injuries. It sounds like they will be back, but I don't think Justice Haynes is going to be back yet. He reportedly was going to have a foot surgery and I think that like they're trying to get him back by the end of the year, which means they're trying to get him back to the Ohio State game. Justice Haynes leads the Power 4 in rushing yards per game at 122 yards per game. But Jordan Marshall is a heck of a guy to give the ball to when Justice Haynes is not there. My main point on this is. This is my. This is why I think it's important to talk about Michigan, Northwestern. Purdue's not very good. Michigan only beat him 2116 and the. The game was in doubt in the fourth quarter. Michigan had some key injuries in that game. Michigan has had a week to get healthy. Michigan is at Maryland next week. Maryland's not particularly good. Northwestern's got enough of a defense. I think Northwestern has a good running back. They have a good number one receiver. Their quarterback is a little hit and miss sometimes, but he can make some throws. This is an important game to get a read on Michigan and who Michigan really is before the Ohio State Michigan game because I think this has a chance to tell us that because they getting healthy except for Justice Haynes with an off week to reset themselves schematically mentally, physically. And Northwestern's good enough that if you dork around Northwestern will give you a game. I am very eager to see what Michigan looks like in this game.
- [29:09]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, I think, I think Northwestern's defense in particular Right. They're gonna, they're gonna make Bryce Underwood, I think like have to earn it if he wants to move the ball down the field and score. It's what Northwestern does against, against most teams. I think it's interesting too, right? It's not. Yeah, it's not a marquee kind of game, but given that Northwestern is like just good enough, I think to potentially make it interesting. It's at Wrigley, which is weird. We even saw like Ohio State last year. I think like was a little, a little slow, just like kind of figuring out what it is to play at Wrigley Field. Although Northwestern has never won at Wrigley Field, which I think is.
- [29:43]
Bill Landis
They always play good games. They don't. Yeah, they don't usually play Northwestern, Purdue at Wrigley Field, you know, so.
- [29:49]
Doug Le Maurice
But they did in 2021 and they lost. So it happen. But no, no, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm with you on it. I'm also curious to see, like from what I was reading, a lot of these injuries sound like they could play, but does Michigan try to hold them out? Right. Like just try. Just so you can try to be like as fresh as possible for the Ohio State game in a couple of weeks. I, I don't know. But yeah, I do kind of, I do kind of think it'll be close. Like, like I don't know that Michigan's going to be like sweating a loss in the fourth quarter, but I think Northwestern is going to be like kind of annoying and hang around in this game.
- [30:28]
Bill Landis
I think it's, I think these two games are talking about, are very similar. Right? Like Notre Dame and Michigan that see who you really are. And Pitt and Northwestern are both good enough to I think at least make you show who you really are. And, and if you don't play well, they might give you problems. So I think, I think Notre Dame pit is elevated. Michigan Northwestern is a little bit the JV version of Notre Dame pit. The spread is similar. This is eleven and a half. I have Michigan 2916.
- [31:00]
Doug Le Maurice
I have Michigan 2414.
- [31:03]
Bill Landis
Okay, so you're taking points. The points. Okay. One more Big Ten game that we want to talk about. This is USC and Iowa. Iowa is getting six and a half points in this game at USC. It's a 3:30 eastern start on the Big Ten Network. Most efficient offense in the country for USC against the traditional Iowa defense. Again, I don't think it's a look ahead spot because USC knows it has to win out to have a chance at the playoff. But like USC at NOR at Oregon, next week is going to be a banger. Iowa, in that reign against Oregon, only ran it 2.3 yards per carry. Oregon ran at 7.3 yards per carry. They still are kind of limited in the past game. I think Mark Gronowski might actually thrown for more yards than Dante Moore last week. But still, like, I believe in the Iowa defense. I don't know if the Iowa offense, even against the USC defense that I think does have some holes in it. I'm not sure if the Iowa offense can score enough to like, make this a game.
- [32:22]
Doug Le Maurice
I would agree. Under normal circumstances, it's supposed to rain, like, pretty heavy all day in LA on Saturday and the Coliseum has grass. The field could be kind of a mess, which would be an equalizer for Iowa. But. But I do think it'll be. I think it'll be a good test rate. Like, I heard somebody compare this. It might have been on like, a split zone do where they were comparing it to, like, Lincoln Riley at usc having to play Utah and never being able to match the physicality. Right. I think this will be. This could be like, an interesting test for Lincoln rallies USC against a team that is obviously going to play. Like, I don't. I don't think. I don't think I was like, a team that feels like physical hangovers, like, from. From the game it just had against Oregon. Like, they're going to show up ready to play because they're Iowa. So it'll be a good test to think of where exactly USC is there. But also, like, we saw USC push Michigan around in the Coliseum a couple weeks ago. Right. Like, they. They have that in them, at least offensively. So. And I actually don't think Iowa. And maybe it's just prisoner of the moment with what I saw Oregon doing. Like, I don't. Iowa's run defense is not particularly important. Impressive. So if it does become a game where you kind of just have to run it and you can't really throw it, I don't think that's automatically tilted towards Iowa because USC's run game is pretty good. So.
- [33:38]
Bill Landis
But their defense is pretty bad, right? Like, yeah, I'm bringing.
- [33:42]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, but I don't.
- [33:44]
Bill Landis
Iowa couldn't run it against Oregon, but Oregon has a good defense. Do you think Iowa, offensively, with that offensive line, can they push the US Around?
- [33:52]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, yeah. More than Oregon's. Yes. Yeah, yeah, definitely. But that also, I think, like, that shortens the game and lessens, like, fewer possessions when you're talking about that too. But yeah, I think, I think they're. Both teams can probably run the ball on each other in this game.
- [34:10]
Bill Landis
Okay. Six and a half point spread. I'm gonna take USC 2617.
- [34:17]
Doug Le Maurice
I have a similar score. I have USC 2116. Do you know, I think this is right the last time Iowa beat a ranked Big Ten team on the road.
- [34:30]
Bill Landis
Oh no.
- [34:34]
Doug Le Maurice
2015.
- [34:36]
Bill Landis
Really? Okay. Okay.
- [34:39]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah.
- [34:40]
Bill Landis
USC at home is a real thing. I think too. Like that's, that's like they have a chance to.
- [34:44]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah. Also USC just played this game last week because they play Northwestern.
- [34:49]
Bill Landis
Right.
- [34:49]
Doug Le Maurice
What a great test.
- [34:52]
Bill Landis
But struggled.
- [34:54]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah. No, didn't, didn't, didn't, didn't light it up the way I thought they might. Yeah.
- [34:58]
Bill Landis
I mean the biggest player the usc, Northwestern game was the USC quarterback forcing a fumble on what should have been a pick six. Right. Or Northwestern might win that game. So like that it is, it's a good comparison. And, and USC barely escaped there. So USC is hard to get a handle on. I don't know. But baby deer as a coach. You know what I like though? Like this thing I'm wearing my Roback hoodie hangs well, has a hood. Oh, look at me like, look. I look like cool now look like a rapper. Very, very briefly. Were you a dedicated, for real? Were you a dedicated Beavis and Butthead watcher? Philly Billy coming home from school, sitting down in front Cornholio.
- [35:51]
Doug Le Maurice
I feel like that was probably something I wasn't allowed to watch as a child or at least my parents tried to shield me away from.
- [35:56]
Bill Landis
You have good, you have, you have comfortable looking family. They don't let you watch that stuff. Roback.com R H O-B-A-K.com hoodies like Quarter Zips. Go check it out. Right. You can get some of these like, you know, sort of like the plain colors but well crafted or. But you go in the game day collection and you get the same kind of thing with like little logos on it for the teams that you like. So if you want to go check it out and you think to yourself, you know, I'm going to pull the trigger on this. What I've been doing. I've been looking at this site like 4 times. I love window shopping for clothes on websites, but at some point you gotta fisher cut date. So it's like give a shot because you're getting 20 off. So bad. 20 is the code to get 20 off your order@roback.com Bad 22 SEC games number 11 Oklahoma at number four, Alabama. This line was at six and a half. Now it's down to five and a half that Alabama is favored by. It's 3:30 on ABC. John Matir has not been good since he got hurt. Like not close to good. And before he got hurt. And it's unfortunate, but he was like a. People had him high on the Heisman list and he's just. I've been doing my little. Keep referencing it, my quarterback searches for the last several weeks. Whatever. He's like one of the worst 10 quarterbacks in the country since he returned. And it's. And it's very unfortunate, but if you're thinking that like Jama Teer is here to save the day for the Sooners, I don't know, man.
- [37:20]
Doug Le Maurice
Is he. Do we think he's bad because he's hurt or is he bad because he's playing better teams?
- [37:27]
Bill Landis
Both, both, both.
- [37:29]
Doug Le Maurice
But he's a very different quarterback against SEC teams. Just like statistically.
- [37:35]
Bill Landis
Yeah, because, I mean, because everybody was ready to, you know, Washington State guy, good luck to him. But just puffery. Puffery. Absolute freaking puffery. But do you think the Oklahoma defense is real?
- [37:48]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, I do. Them or Texas probably best defense in the sec.
- [37:57]
Bill Landis
Okay. Yeah. So Oklahoma's not good. Oklahoma's best win is. Is Tennessee. They got out gained by Tennessee, 456 to 351 and 1. Anyway, and Tennessee's best win is Mississippi State or Syracuse. So this is the Ponzi scheme of the sec. It's like, oh, wow, Oklahoma beat Tennessee in a game that they should have lost. How impressive is that? Well, who's Tennessee beaten? Nobody. Okay, then why do you think Tennessee is good? Puffery. Okay, congratulations everybody. So I don't think Oklahoma's that good, but I am super curious if this defense can give Alabama real problems. Do you think that they will give Alabama real problems?
- [38:39]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, well, they will. They will render Alabama one dimensional because most teams do because Alabama can't run the ball. But this is the second best run defense in the SEC against the second worst rushing offense in the sec. So it's all going to be on Ty Simpson. But Ty Simpson, like, if you look at the game like the, the best defenses he's played or he's played. So by SP plus, this will be the best defense he's faced. But he's played four other top 25 defenses by SP plus and he's averaged 250 yards per game with eight touchdowns and no picks. So like he is played pretty well in those games, they haven't like, you know, lit it up. There's a lot of scores in the 20s there, but he's played well enough for his to win. But yeah, I do think, I think Oklahoma's defense can give Alabama all kinds of problems.
- [39:23]
Bill Landis
I, I, I think so too. But this is nightmare scenario for the rest of the world of Oklahoma beats Alabama because it makes Oklahoma very frisky for a playoff spot and it doesn't knock Alabama out of the playoff. And so I can in good conscience pick Oklahoma in this game no matter how much I think Alabama is a puffed up fraud. I've gone through the whole season picking against Alabama. They've managed to win week after week and like there's a part of me that' right now, now is going to be when the rubber hits the road, they're playing a really good defense. We're going to find out that Alabama offense isn't as good as you think and the result is going to be six SEC teams in the playoff and I'm going to have to lock myself in my basement.
- [40:10]
Doug Le Maurice
You don't take Solace and Caitlin DeBoer being 7 and 1 against ranked SEC teams.
- [40:15]
Bill Landis
Future Penn State coach Kaylin DeBoer.
- [40:19]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah.
- [40:19]
Bill Landis
Can I say when you and I did around the Shoe, like a month and a half ago, right after James Franklin got fired and we threw out names, right. We're talking about Lane Kiffin. I threw out Kayla. I like Kaylin Deborah. The idea that then, but then like, because I thought Bam would have three losses by now. Our friends at the Nittany Dispatch, I was listening to their later show. We certainly would invite you guys to go check out the Nittany Dispatch wherever you find podcasts and, and here on YouTube and, and our guy John Sauber over there is keeps beating the drum for Kaylin DeBoer.
- [40:51]
Doug Le Maurice
Interesting.
- [40:52]
Bill Landis
He very much thinks like the home run, like realistic. Like they, they are trying and he is not closing the door. On them are Mike Elko from Texas A m and Kaylin DeBoer from Alabama. And so I remain intrigued by that. And by the way, if Kaylin D's coach in the North, I'll be his best friend. I just think he's a bad fit in Tuscaloosa.
- [41:15]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, well, it'd be interesting because I don't think Alabama is going to win a national championship, but I think it's pretty clear that Alabama is more than likely going to make the playoff. Can you leave the playoff team? I guess you can if you just feel like you're not the right fit. They're recruiting well too. I don't, I don't know.
- [41:36]
Bill Landis
Are you doing it? Are you gonna pick Oklahoma and blow up?
- [41:39]
Doug Le Maurice
No, no, no, no, no. Kayla bore 7 to 1 against ranked SEC teams. Brent Venables 3 and 5 did beat Alabama last year. That was one of those Kaylin DeBoer beats the good things but loses to the bad teams losses for him last season and one of other lost that.
- [41:57]
Bill Landis
Kept Bam out of the playoff.
- [41:59]
Doug Le Maurice
Yeah, one of the other wins for Brent Venables is Auburn this year which fired its head coach because Auburn, believe it or not, was ranked at some point this year. I have bama by a touchdown. 2417.
- [42:12]
Bill Landis
Oh, I have 2416. So there we have it. But we're both taking Bama minus the points. Final one is Georgia. Texas. This is another SEC game. It's at 7:30 on the blank TV screen in my basement. Georgia at Home is a 6 1/2 point favorite. I was, I was very much like realistically gonna say are, are we sure that Texas isn't just better than Georgia right now? And then I remembered that two of Texas's last three games were overtime wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State who are at the bottom of the sec. And I was like okay Doug, like I think George is puffed up but I can't get all the way there on Texas and their good win is a game that they led Vanderbilt like by four scores. They led 34, 10 entering the fourth quarter and gave up three straight touchdowns to make it a game. 34, 31. So even when Texas is getting a big win, they're barely doing it. So Texas is a mess. But I also think Georgia is a mess. The Georgia defense is not that good. The formaux index, the formaux ratings that we like defensively, Texas 10, Georgia 27. Their defense is not that good. And just hate our guy Shane, who's going to message me about my Georgia thoughts as soon as this podcast ends.
- [43:38]
Doug Le Maurice
Do you know last year Georgia, Texas played twice. Georgia really, really worked Texas over up front. Georgia had 13 sacks in those two games against Texas and this year Georgia on The season has 11 sacks.
- [43:55]
Bill Landis
Oh my.
- [43:55]
Doug Le Maurice
They're not getting, they're not getting after it up front for whatever reason. I don't think Texas's offensive line is good but I, I, I just don't know that that's as much of a, of a mismatch as it was last year. That because it kind of like rendered Texas like non competitive against Georgia. So that's different. I really, I thought like Texas is like really good but like they're or Texas's defense is really good. Like they're leaking kind of lately like mentioned it. Mississippi State put up I know like total yards is whatever but 445 yards from Mississippi State against Texas's defense. 423 for Vandy. Florida put up 457. I don't know maybe their defense is bad too. Yeah so I don't know. I don't know what to make of this game. I think Arch is playing better. I'm curious like if he's like kind of turned the corner and if that might make the difference.
- [44:47]
Bill Landis
Gunner Stockton has been bailing George out all year. I, I was very he's a big.
- [44:52]
Doug Le Maurice
Moment kind of like if it's close and he has the ball you actually like I've pretty strong belief that he's going to lead the drive to win the game. Right.
- [44:58]
Bill Landis
You know he's got a little, he's got a little of in him. Gunna Stockton is a worthy successor to my legacy as the finest Georgia quarterback of all time. Stetson's here. You may refer to gunna as Stetson Jr. And I would be more than happy to glorify his name. I think Texas is going to win Georgia. Here's the thing. Georgia has lost Obama. They beat Tennessee in overtime, they came back, got a touchdown on two point conversion one in overtime against Tennessee Ole Miss. They were down nine points entering the fourth quarter and they came back and won Florida. They were down 20 to 17 in the fourth quarter and they came back, got a touchdown drive and won that game for mo index defensive ratings Florida 28 Tennessee 31 Ole Miss 42 the Texas defense is 10th. I could see Georgia getting in that spot again getting down and here comes Gunner Stockton to the rescue and maybe the Texas defense is actually good enough to get a frickin stop because nobody's gotten a stop against Georgia when it mattered the entire year and if any of these incompetent defenses in the SEC and guess what? They don't play defense in the SEC anymore. If a couple of those defenses were any good Georgia to have three losses But Gunner Stockton has made unbelievable plays like all credit to Georgia but also Georgia keeps digging holes. Georgia keeps digging holes and its conference lets them out because it's conference doesn't know how to finish including Ole Miss, everyone's favorite playoff team. So is is this can this be the team? Can Texas be the team? And I was like I don't know that's probably the best defense. Georgia's face. And then you come in here with, like, well, they gave up 457 to Florida, so I don't know.
- [46:53]
Doug Le Maurice
I do think the total for this game is only 49 and a half. If this game is like, 45, 44, I don't think I'd be surprised with the way, like, some of the games or some of the ways of defense have looked this year. But I. I think it's lower scoring. And I'm gonna also. I'm gonna stay true to my current playoff projections as well, which has. Which have Texas in. So I think I'm picking Texas to win. 24, 21.
- [47:19]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I'm picking Texas to win, too. I pulled myself back from a score that you're talking about, like, in the 40s, so I have 33, 26 Texas. But I might. I might hit two Dougie dollars on that over. So. Okay, good weekend. We have. We have some games that matter. I'm. I'm particularly intrigued by pit Notre Dame, but hopefully you guys have functional TV networks that come into your house for the money that you pay. If not, go to your friend's house.
- [47:50]
Doug Le Maurice
We will get their $20 credit. Do you get your $20 credit?
- [47:54]
Bill Landis
So you had to, like, jump through six hoops and find a secret button.
- [47:59]
Doug Le Maurice
They couldn't just give it to you?
- [48:00]
Bill Landis
Yeah, Chris Vanini from the Athletic is the guy who pointed it out to me. Like, he did a Twitter post that was like, hey, by the way, you got to do this for YouTube. And I was like, what? So then I did it. I was shouting up to my wife, what's our password? It's like 20 bucks. 20 bucks. By the way, we should be getting 50 bucks back. The whole reason I have YouTube TV is to watch college football and record all the games and then have them right at my fingertips. And a bunch of the games are on a ESPN and ABC. So YouTube TV, 20 bucks and cutting it also, especially the 20 hidden bucks. 20 hidden bucks is not cutting it. YouTube. I'd cut bait yesterday if I knew where to go, because I. I want to have all the recordings. Is it as easy to record on every other thing you do?
- [48:41]
Doug Le Maurice
No. And. And it's not like YouTube. I think is unlimited too, or not unlimited, but you can build up a nice. A nice bank of recorded games. I. I also, I have NFL Sunday Ticket through YouTube TV. So I'm stuck with them.
- [48:54]
Bill Landis
God, they can all suck it. So get it figured out. The government is open. Figure out the TV thing. Could you bet on that on FanDuel. What gets opened first, the ABC, ESPN games on my TV or the entire government? How is the entire government figuring it out faster than YouTube TV and Disney are? Oh, we're just consumers. They just all can collectively cram it so hard. My God. I'm gonna come, I'm gonna get my 20 credit and I'm going to come to your office YouTube TV and cram it up your cram hole. We will see you guys. Ohio State post game show late, late, late on Saturday night. Ohio State Sunday sound off with our Substack subscribers, Bill and Douggo issue.substack.com playoff show on Tuesday night. Right. That's for everybody. That's for the college football folks. And we are we had Joshua Perry from NBC Sports join us join us on our YouTube show and podcast feeds here this week. Another national broadcaster should be joining us next week. So we'll have another show with that. I'm not I don't want to give it away in case it falls apart, but that's the plan. So thanks to you guys for being here. Go check out roback.com make sure you like subscribe. Tell a friend about the Bill and Doug Show. We'll talk to you soon. For now, he's Bill Landis on Doug Le Maurice. And that was the Bill and Doug Show.