
It's a dive into college football win totals on this episode of Around the Shoe, as Doug Lesmerises and Bill Landis are joined by two great college football guests. • Ari Wasserman of On3.com and The Andy & Ari Show • Matt Fortuna of Insidezonemf.com and The Independent: A Notre Dame Football Podcast
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Ari Wasserman
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Bill Landis
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Ari Wasserman
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Matt Fortuna
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Ari Wasserman
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Doug Lemarice
Sport Clips, it's a game changer. Check it online@sport clips.com. Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. It's around the Shoe. Doug Lam, Bill Landis joined every Monday by two outstanding media members and boy do we have some big hitters this week. Ari Wasserman from On3, Matt Fortuna from the inside zone. We're doing college football over under win totals. They're out on FanDuel. We'll take a big picture look at the sport. We're gonna talk about Ohio State, a couple other teams but Ari, you have been with us on the Bill and Doug show before. You haven't been on around the Shoe. Thanks for being here man.
Ari Wasserman
It's always a pleasure to be here. Guys. Love the logo, love that it's the bad show still because and is just, you know, replacing Ari. It works. You guys do a great show, a great job and love spending time with you anytime I can.
Doug Lemarice
Love to have you here. And Matt Fortuna, you're back for for another run at it. You, you didn't bail on us after you. You did the first one. So thanks for coming back, man.
Matt Fortuna
We made some outlandish big ten playoff predictions last time I was on the show and maybe we'll, we'll have something similar cooking up here with over underwent totals.
Doug Lemarice
We are getting outlandish here. So we're going to start with an Ohio State topic because I do find Ohio State's win total, these are coming off of FanDuel maybe the most interesting in the country. Ohio State is at 9.5 wins for the season as they're over under win total. They do have an interesting schedule. But, Ari, as you think about this, 9.5 for Ohio State. What's the word or phrase you would use to describe what you think of this number for the Buckeyes?
Ari Wasserman
Yes, please. I looked this up and you guys know, having worked with me so for so many years, I'm not good at research, but I looked this up and I'm sure you know this off the top of your head just institutionally, and I should have. But when's the last time Ohio State did not win 10 regular season games? And you know the answer. It was the fickle disaster in 2011.
Doug Lemarice
Right.
Ari Wasserman
I get that they're playing Texas and I get that their schedule is different now that the expansion has occurred. I have a hard time envisioning Ohio State losing three times in a regular season. Just period. And I know that they have a lot of turnover and, you know, it's. It's a different world now. And maybe I'm just being fooled by past, which is the number one sin of the Doug and Bill show. Right. Using past to rely on the future. What has to happen for Ohio State to lose three times?
Doug Lemarice
Some version of disaster, probably, no matter how hard the schedule is. Right. So that. That's kind of what you're saying, right?
Ari Wasserman
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I would take the over very confidently. Unless it's like minus 175. It might be. You know how they get kind of minus 158. Minus 158. See that? You know, you're paying a little bit of a juice there because I think Vegas is. Is trying to get people to bet the under. But like, I do think that, you know, it's a very like 10 and 2 isn't a good year for them. So, you know, if you're bringing back a Heisman finalist quarterback and the best player in. In. In the country, and certainly at his position and you have that track record, like, I can't imagine how it would not land at least 10. Yeah.
Doug Lemarice
Okay. So, Ari, you already on it, Ari, or no?
Ari Wasserman
No, not yet. I don't like laying those types of odds in the off season. Although I do kind of feel like it's going like it's definitely going to cash, but I have to really sink my teeth into what I'm already. I've got women's basketball games that we're. We're crushing through today. One thing at a time. NBA futures out there, we're. We're chugging along, but usually around June and May is when I really start to sink my Teeth into future action.
Doug Lemarice
Okay. All right. Matt. Matt Fortuna, you. You already like again, this is one of those. This is not a gambling show. But when you get into some of these over unders, sometimes the juice is so heavy each way, like just looking at the numbers, a little skewed, but still 9.5 is the number. Matt, what do you think of it?
Matt Fortuna
I. I don't see how this doesn't cash. I mean, it's. I think I said this off air. We're in the process of moving and buying a house. So I'm not going to lay it now because I'm out of my dollars, but maybe I should. Right. And just put everything I have left on this and that will pay for the whole thing. I just don't see a scenario where they go 9 and 3 or worse. I mean, they're paying. Matt, Patricia, what you guys have said three, seven, five, like $75 million. Hey, your coaches that kind of money to go nine and three. I don't know what this, like, I don't care what the schedule is. I think you wrote over the weekend, Doug. They've got five, like quote unquote tough games. They would have to go two and three in those tough games for this not to cash. And I don't even look at them as five tough games. Like, I know Michigan is what it is, but I still have a hard time seeing them losing to Michigan this year, especially at home. I have a hard time seeing them losing to usc and then it's basically, can you go one and two against Texas, Indiana and Oregon. And the Oregon game is at home. And I have a hard time seeing Ohio State losing that game. What, November 1st, November 7th. It's early November. I have a hard time seeing Ohio State losing that game at home in November. So give me 10, 10 plus all the way. I'd be surprised at this number isn't much higher at other sports books. Whenever they eventually open their preseason over under totals, I understand there's some juice involved here, but I don't. If you're betting the under on this, like, what do you know that we know is why I know like, well have like a mysterious knee injury we don't know about. Like, I just. And even then, like, this is Ohio State. They have talent in that quarterback room and across the roster. The idea of them, not of this roster, even with this schedule, winning anything less than 10 games, I, I still have a hard time seeing that happening.
Ari Wasserman
Here's where I get confused, guys.
Doug Lemarice
Yep.
Ari Wasserman
Because it's maybe not confusion but it's an interesting thought process. If you're an Ohio State person, you understand more than anything that the Michigan game is its own entity.
Matt Fortuna
Right.
Ari Wasserman
Like you can't use the Michigan game to analyze other things because it's such its own independent. But if you look back at Ryan Day's tenure and basically the entirety of the Ohio State sphere that I've covered since 2010, I can only come up with two games outside of the Michigan game that Ohio State lost when it wasn't supposed to. And those are the, the Iowa Purdue games back to back years towards the end of Urban Meyer's tenure. So if you're Ryan Day and you're, you're analyzing Ryan Day, there were some Michigan games that I believe that he lost during that four year stretch that they should not have lost. They lost to an inferior team in, in the fourth attempt. He has not shown any, He's not prone to losing to over match opponents. So like a lot of times where you get like kind of hooked in these over unders is when a team loses to a team that you don't think they could possibly lose to or comes out of nowhere or they're upset. Ohio State doesn't do that. The only. What was the closest one that they've even had during his tenure?
Matt Fortuna
Oregon.
Bill Landis
Right.
Ari Wasserman
21 years ago than Oregon. But that was a good team.
Matt Fortuna
Right.
Ari Wasserman
So yeah, the Nebraska game two years ago, if they would have lost that game would have been the most a characteristic loss of his entire tenure outside of Michigan. So if you're able to remove like games like Illinois, you know, looking at their schedule, they're not going to lose to Northwestern. They're probably not going to lose at Nebraska. Right. If you can just automatically qualify, quantify those games as wins, which I think you can based on what we've seen from him, then you, you are able to whittle it down to way Matt did and just like are they going to go one and two in their biggest games and. Probably not. Right?
Doug Lemarice
Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that, that is like among the things that Ryan Day has done very well is, is not lose the games like that. Matt, you're right that Oregon game, you know Kayvon Thibodeau didn't play in that game and like their quarterback was kind of iffy. That was still a pretty weird one. Landis. Right, that Oregon loss, but that's. That Oregon team was decent. Right. But Day hasn't lost that good.
Matt Fortuna
They weren't that good twice.
Bill Landis
20, 21, they weren't that good. Ohio State Law.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah. Yeah. All right, Bill, what's your phrase to describe this here?
Bill Landis
Yeah, I like, I, I guess I would say, like, I'm not, I'm not as dismissive of this as, as Matt and Aria. Like, I, I can, I can see three losses here. Like, they're not Texas, Indiana, Oregon aren't overmatched opponents. Those are games Ohio State can lose. Ohio State has lost to Michigan four times on Orion Day. Like, they can lose that game. I don't know what to make of the rivalry at the moment because of all the change at Michigan. And there was a lot, I think, on the mental side of things that contributed to the slump against Michigan with Ryan Day, that I think it's probably reasonable to believe that he's over. But I'd like to see it before I start assuming that. But that was a heck of a win up in Ann Arbor for Ohio State last year. I don't think I was particularly good, but the last time I saw Ohio State playing Iowa, they got their butts kicked. So like, I, I like it's. That's. They haven't played there since 2017. Would when Iowa boat race them? So. And that's a really tough place to play. Iowa gave Oregon and Indiana 2 awesome Games in Kinnick last year. So I, I'm. I don't think I'd pick Ohio State to go 9 and 3. We did our, our playoff picks and I wasn't quite there. But I can absolutely see a scenario where, where it happens against this schedule because even like at Texas, the last time Ohio State played like a marquee non conference game on the road, they won because the other team had 10 guys on the field on the last play. Right. Like, it's not. They're. I don't think, like this is a slam dunk. Ohio State's winning 10 games because Ohio State always wins 10 games kind of year. I think there's enough turnover on the roster. And this is, this is one hell of a slate they're staring at that. You know, if, if I had to bet, if somebody forced me to bet it, I would probably say Ohio State still finds a way to win 10 games. But this makes a lot of sense to me looking at what they have in front of them and sort of what's happened this off season in terms of the roster.
Ari Wasserman
Well, secure your house first then, Matt. I don't want you to.
Matt Fortuna
I will say I overlooked that Iowa game and I think I was actually probably on the road, a tougher opponent than USC and maybe even Michigan. I, I just felt, and I know there's a new situation, Michigan, but like I think you guys were all there. I was there. That felt like, okay, like this chapter of us tripping over ourselves against Michigan is over. Michigan's going to protect the 50 yard line because they're trying so hard to hang on to the last four years and it's like, no, it's over. It's over. Like Ryan Day shed that. Like they're the better team, they're the better program and it will play out that way from here on out.
Ari Wasserman
I think they, they closed. My theory on that is they closed the chapter on the Michigan stuff in Atlanta in January. I, I think that once they won the national title that like, yes, but
Matt Fortuna
you still gotta like there's still that like. Well, they, they turned it over on their first. Oh my God. Like, here we go.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah, I know it didn't feel like that for the first quarter for sure, but like, you know, the game actually played out the way I thought the previous one should have played out.
Matt Fortuna
Like if you take what you said and say like Michigan's its own entity and then like you do the reverse of that and say, okay, like last year's three loss or excuse me, two loss Michigan against undefeated Ohio State. Let's just look at these games on paper. What do you think's gonna happen? We probably all would have said something like 279 independent of the rivalry and
Ari Wasserman
they're not losing to Iowa on the road. It's just not gonna happen. Like I, I understand it's, it's. They're not going to lose the game to Iowa on the road.
Matt Fortuna
That's one more tough one that takes something out of you.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah. Kirk Ference, bulletin board man. Ari Wasserman doesn't think the fighting fairances can do it.
Ari Wasserman
Things in the past. Yeah, about Iowa, you can put it up there. I don't know.
Doug Lemarice
This is an over under show. There are nine teams that have a bi fan duel and over under win total of 9.5 or higher. 9.5 wins or higher this year. Nine teams in the, in the power four. Ohio State's one of them and then Ohio State plays three of the other eight. So that's what we're talking about with Indiana, Oregon and Texas. Like it is that it is that level. Like I, I don't. I'll be curious when we get to like the strengths of schedule and all that stuff, like how high Ohio State is because again, just looking at win totals, Indiana and Oregon they played 10.5 Texas 9.5, Michigan, USC 8.5, Illinois, Iowa 7.5. Right. So there's like a lot of like winning, winning teams on this schedule. But I do, I think my phrase would be, it's a, it's a little bit of an, of an over anticipation of the new world. And by that like there's is a conversation I think in the Ohio State fan base and I think generally in college football, maybe you guys agree with this that if we're going to have like sort of the better teams playing each other and maybe like the Big Ten wants to make good games, the SEC is playing nine conference games now that like if you still are going to keep the non conference games like Ohio State, Texas, you just have to get a little accustomed to good teams losing more. Matt, do you think that that's something that like college football and maybe college football fan bases generally need to be prepared more? Especially maybe as we, if we eventually creep towards a super league, that's what it's going to be. Right. Like that. I feel like that is a little bit of a conversation in the Ohio State fan base. Hey, you're playing good teams. You might lose.
Matt Fortuna
Yeah, I mean, I think, look, the fact Ohio State won it all losing to Michigan and losing two games two years ago in this era is indicative enough. But also, and I think you pointed this out, the same website that has them winning nine and a half games this year has them as a favorite to win the national title. So.
Doug Lemarice
Right.
Matt Fortuna
I'm not saying the regular season doesn't matter. It certainly matters when you're betting over unders. But I do think, especially in a league like the Big Ten with such imbalanced schedules, you need to take a closer eye at this. Like, I, I do think Ohio State's more exception than rule. But I, I also don't look at like history and say, well, they haven't lost three games since 2011, so they're not gonna do it now. Like, no, what happened in 2011 is a completely different Big Ten, completely different college football structure than what 2026 is. So I, I don't think that applies to this. Same way, like I would look at Iowa every year and be like, well, of course they're gonna go over seven and a half. They go eight and four every year and it's like, well, they're not playing a west schedule anymore. They might not.
Doug Lemarice
Right.
Matt Fortuna
Conversely, SEC, nine game schedules, I think some of those schools are in for a rude awakening.
Doug Lemarice
How delicious. I can't wait for.
Bill Landis
How can I squeeze a question in here that doesn't have anything to do with win totals. But I just, I didn't, I didn't realize that Ohio State was now the betting favorite to be the national champion on FanDuel. What has happened in the last three weeks that Ohio State has gone? I think Ohio State was plus 750 and Notre Dame was the favorite and now Ohio State is plus 550 and Notre Dame is plus 750. Like, did something happen that Marcus Freeman decided he was going to coach the New York Giants or something?
Matt Fortuna
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Bill Landis
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Doug Lemarice
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Bill Landis
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Doug Lemarice
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Doug Lemarice
Well, so on DraftKings, I also think there's like a four way tie at +700 that FanDuel has Ohio State as the over as kind of as the favorite. I think it's like Indiana. Org Indiana, Indiana, Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio State are tied on DraftKings. But anyway, to your point, yeah, I don't know. Ari, have a theory.
Ari Wasserman
I think that people just like betting on Ohio State because they're consistent. The thing that I'm kind of trying
Bill Landis
to work, people are getting their tax returns and putting it on Ohio State.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah. And I also don't know if like action on Ohio State would move it that much. But like it is kind of just like these, the steady horse. Really a team that you know by and large is at least going to make the field. So that makes sense. The thing that I'm kind of struggling with as somebody who famously overlooked Indiana's capability at this time last year is are we now taking Indiana's accomplishment from last season and overvaluing Indiana going into next year because they lost, you know, a lot of their best players. And I think sustainability is a really difficult thing in this day and age, obviously. And, like, I'm assuming they'll be very good, but, like, the Indiana is a favorite to win the national title next year stuff kind of freaks me out a little bit. I don't know why that's the case, so. And their win totals win higher than Ohio State's. Granted, they don't play Texas, but, you know, it is kind of staggering to see that they would be, from a betting standpoint, so heavily favored over teams that, you know, might have more talent returning than they do. So, Indy, listen, I know Kurt Signetti is a wizard, and I know that you're not going to make a lot of money betting against that man, clearly, but it seems like a little bit of an overvalue for them. It's like, Ohio State has to play Indiana next year. Yeah. But, like, who are we more comfortable with right now of, like, who's going to have better players on the field at this point next year?
Matt Fortuna
Like, how much of that is overcompensating because they got taken to the woodshed by anyone who took them last year? Well, I mean, they were plus 100 to win at all last year, were they not?
Ari Wasserman
Yeah. 101.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah, 100 to 1.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah.
Matt Fortuna
Which is insane even coming on. I mean, they were a very good program. Not saying I or anyone thought they'd win at all last year, but they made the playoff the year before.
Ari Wasserman
I mean, it makes me feel really stupid to have not seen that.
Matt Fortuna
Me, too.
Ari Wasserman
We all should have been able to see that. And maybe, you know, the hindsight deal, but, like, it's just like they brought back most of the team that already made the playoff. Like, that is an insanely good value that should have been taken by me last year, and I did not see it.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah. It is interesting as we bring up the idea that sort of the divide between Ohio State's over under win total and their national championship odds. Landis, do you think that 9 and 3 Ohio State national champions is sort of, like, a reasonable thing to ponder?
Bill Landis
Yeah, absolutely, dude. Because I think. I think there's a. There's. I. I don't know that every version of 9 and 3 Ohio State gets to the playoff, but I think Most versions of 9 and 3 Ohio State get to the playoff, and then once that team's in there, they can absolutely go win the whole thing. We just saw Them do it two years ago. So yeah, I, it's like a weird thing to wrap your mind around. But yes, I think it's. It's very possible that we see that.
Ari Wasserman
You know this is the thing that drives me insane too about the bull. Are we allowed to cuss on the show? Sorry, the.
Doug Lemarice
Are we. Bill's the chief content officer can already cuss or no Bill can bring you up.
Matt Fortuna
This will be interesting to watch.
Bill Landis
Just right now I think, I think one here or there is fine.
Ari Wasserman
I'd say bull crap.
Bill Landis
There you go.
Ari Wasserman
Like it the discussion of like should we just not play anybody good and wink in our schedules and look at all the national champions who don't play tough non conference games. It's like we have what one year of the right seating of the 12 team era and like I think people think that if you're nine and three you're automatically disqualified. And it's like it's an inevitability that a team at some point will be nine and three and make the playoff and the team that is nine and three and makes the playoff will be the team that played a tough non conference game and had a really tough schedule. That stat that you just pulled, Doug, I think states it perfectly which is, you know there's a finite amount of teams that have nine and a half win totals that in Ohio State's playing three of those teams like that, you know that kind of opened my eyes a little bit more of like hey maybe I like yes please was a little bit more of an overstep and I'm more in the Landis territory. But yeah, the regular season is different and the talent harboring is certainly changing. And you know, Ohio State didn't win the national championship last year despite having, you know, with the NFL draft is going to tell us might be one of the most talented teams of all time. So are they going to have that talent advantage? I'm sure they will to a certain extent but I don't know if it's going to be as lopsided as it was even last year anymore.
Doug Lemarice
And I, and I do think, you know, certainly there were people saying this during the season when Ohio State was 120 in the regular season and you know Penn State fell apart and wasn't that difficult of a game and they had the Texas game early but Ohio State schedule wasn't that difficult and I do think there is some portion of the Ohio State fan base that's a little scarred by that that maybe they didn't feel in the moment but looking back, they do think, hey, Ohio State wasn't tested enough and then they lost their two postseason games. I think, Matt, there's a portion of Ohio State fans who would almost embrace a 9 and 3 regular season if it toughens. Oh, we got a Landis wrinkle.
Bill Landis
Embrace. Embrace is not the word I would use.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah, but, but if they feel like it's toughening, like if they're still going to get in and it's hardening them and toughening them up for the postseason, that maybe, and Maybe not embrace 9 and 3, but if it's like 10 and 2 and they play some bangers and it's like, man, like they played some excellent teams, they're battle tested. I, I, and that again, Matt, I think is maybe what this era of college football, maybe that's what everybody needs to be prepared for and maybe battle tested is a good thing.
Matt Fortuna
Ten and two, as long as one of those two is not Michigan, maybe. Here's my question. I mean, let's say Ohio State goes 9 and 3 and they lose three close games to Texas, Oregon, Indiana, and there's one spot left, and you're looking at 10 and 2 Penn State, which plays nobody, right. But will be a Big Ten team with a better record. And we know how the humans who are on this committee tend to react.
Ari Wasserman
They have to, they have to win one of those tough games and lose a weird one to get in. They have to have a quality win in there.
Doug Lemarice
They can't lose. I mean, that's Texas.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah.
Doug Lemarice
How good's usc? How good's Michigan? How good's Iowa? How's, how good is the second tier of Ohio State wins would matter, I
Ari Wasserman
think, but I think to be nine and three, you have to have a tier one win still. But maybe, you know, I think that getting in, not to interrupt you, Matt, but getting in is every bit to do with what's around you as well. So, like that 10 and 2, 9 and 3 comparison. I think in order for a 9 and 3 team to overtake a 10 and 2 team, they have to have, well, we beat the number three team in the country, too. And that's my theory, but go ahead, Matt. Sorry.
Matt Fortuna
No, I, I, I, I agree. I just. Texas had gave Texas A and M their only loss of the year. They kept complaining that they got left out because they played Ohio State. Well, no, they got left out because they lost to a terrible Florida team and they didn't look particularly good in a lot of their wins. Right. They needed a miracle to beat Mississippi State, you know, they almost blew it against Vanderbilt late. I just think as long as humans are on this committee, for as long as they've been on this committee, their first instinct is to look at the loss column and then to kind of back analyze it from there.
Ari Wasserman
And Texas didn't get in last year
Matt Fortuna
because we'll deserve it. But Penn State schedule is a joke. I mean they've got a whole new roster, a whole new coaching staff and yet they're over under is also nine and a half as it should be because they should go 10 and 2 at worst with that schedule as long as they're healthy.
Ari Wasserman
Texas's resume last year was not good enough to get into last year's field. Texas's resume last year would be good enough in other years to get in. Like I think that that's the mistake that people make. They're like, well Texas got left out last year. So like they have, you know, I don't know how much you can take from. But beating a top five team and handing them their only loss, losing to Ohio State by seven on the road in a pretty close game there at the end. And you know, having as many quality wins as they did will get a team like that. And eventually it didn't work out for them last year, but they, they will like that's a good enough resume in some years moving forward.
Matt Fortuna
That's why I hate that argument because the year before the only reason we were talking about South Carolina being on the bubble is because they won at Clemson in a non conference game. At the end of the year they're not even on anyone's radar if they don't play that game. But they played that game, they upset them and all of a sudden it's like hey, should South Carolina be in? And then Illinois beats them because that's what the Big Ten does, the sec. Right Doug? But I, I just think these games still matter.
Doug Lemarice
Don't make me get my sword out. So listen, this is the other thing that I think is, is possibly happening with Ohio State is there's justifiably a lot of attention on as already mentioned, the NFL guys are might have whatever five first round picks. Bill Connolly's returning production is out on ESPN as we record this on a Monday which is a wonderful day in college football. Of the 138 FBS teams, Ohio State's 31st in returning production. Now they lost a lot off their defense. They're 8th in offensive returning production. They have their quarterback back, they have the best receiver in college Football back. They have their main running back back and they have four of their five offensive line starters back. So I do think that again, if you're taking a. Just like a. Oh, they lost a lot of talent. They did. And they're going to have a hard time replacing some of those defensive guys. But there is a, there is a core Landis of, of offensive experience that is back that I think maybe if you're thinking like tough schedule, they lost a lot. 9 and 3. They actually have some key guys back.
Bill Landis
They do. But if you want to play that game, Texas is sixth, Oregon's 11th, USC is 13th.
Doug Lemarice
I'll tell you what, nine and three Landis is loading up here, brother. Nine and like I, I can't now. I can't wait till like the last weekend in August. We're loading up for nine and three Landis, Ohio State national champion. Well, here's nine and three national champs. Let's go.
Ari Wasserman
I think the look ahead line for Ohio State at Texas is Ohio State minus three, which makes no sense to me.
Doug Lemarice
I don't actually think that. I think they're. I don't think that's right. I think. I think Ohio State is two plus two.
Ari Wasserman
Oh, they're dogs.
Matt Fortuna
It's Texas minus two and a half.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah. Okay.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah.
Ari Wasserman
Still, I think I would take Texas.
Doug Lemarice
Cam Coleman. You love Cam Coleman.
Ari Wasserman
I'm obsessed with him. I love him. I took him on our Heisman draft, remember?
Doug Lemarice
I do. I do remember that.
Bill Landis
Our terrible Heisman draft.
Doug Lemarice
That Heisman draft was awful. So, so I think in the end, to me it's. This is. I think it's understandable, but a little bit of an over adjustment to the tough schedule is what I would say about the 9 and 5. That was a good Ohio State discussion. We appreciate having like people who know Ohio State like you guys do, but also like know the rest of the sport and aren't knee deep. Only in the Buckeyes. But we will shift to some other teams. Matt, we'll start with you because I think Notre Dame is so interesting here. There are two teams who have the highest win totals on FanDuel. They are Texas Tech and Notre Dame. Both are at eleven and a half. So what do you think of that idea for the Fighting Irish, Matt? What word or phrase would you use to describe that 11.5 win total for Notre Dame?
Matt Fortuna
Insane, but also understandable. Also understandable. You mentioned Bill Connolly, who's number one on that list he put out today. Notre Dame number one. Number one is not exactly Murders Row. And by the way the under, if you wanted to do it is minus 200. So there is incentive to go over there. I think this is the best team in the country. I think they should win the national championship this year. Will that happen? I don't know. I, I also don't know how comfortable they are kind of embracing that target. We'll see. They certainly got a chip on their shoulder with the way things ended last year, but they got to go out and prove it and they're well run. Marcus Freeman as a player, as a coach, he's been a head coach in IRA name for four years now. Two of those four years he started 02 the other two years he had a terrible September loss in Northern Illinois and he had, I don't want to call it a terrible loss Ohio State, but as bad of a loss Ohio State as you could have because you're in position to win.
Bill Landis
So.
Matt Fortuna
And he put 10 men on the field. So slow starts have been the bugaboo for this regime. You look at the schedule this year, I, I, they've lost the worst teams before but I have a hard time seeing them losing any of these September games. I think mid season at byu, late season at home against Miami and they play smu who I think is a talented team as well, but they should be, I mean they'll be double digit favorites in at least 10 of their 12 games and they'll be favorites probably in all 12. I don't know if I'd put my money on the over because I just, it's college football. There are a lot of variables particularly in the 12 team era as you mentioned Doug, the idea of them going undefeated, like that's just not a healthy way to live if you've got money on the line. But I don't see a game on there that they are going to or should lose.
Doug Lemarice
Okay, Landis, what do you think of this?
Bill Landis
Yeah, I, I say this as someone who had, I had Notre Dame like as the 1 seed in our first playoff picks as I kind of think they're not going to lose. But this also, it feels like too big of an ask. It's like to actually like want to put, put money down on it. I think for every all the reasons Matt said.
Doug Lemarice
Right.
Bill Landis
Like there, there's been too many issues or instances of Marcus Freeman losing a game that he shouldn't lose and like I don't think that's going to pop up in a way that like keeps Notre Dame for making the playoff but
Matt Fortuna
run
Bill Landis
like even against like somewhat easy schedules is still a pretty difficult thing to, to pull off. It's not like it happens regularly and, and Marcus Freeman has yet to do that. 8 wins, 9 wins, 11 wins and 10 wins in the regular season in his four years as a head coach like this. This is asking him to do something he's never done before. I think they're capable of it because I, I, as we sit here right now, I do kind of think they're the best team in the country and, and seeing that returning production ranking come out today, you know, fortifies that a little bit. But I do think Miami's tricky enough. I think BYU is tricky enough. Maybe Wisconsin on a neutral to start the year is tricky enough. I, I don't know. You're Doug, you, you like Wisconsin quite a bit. So I, I kind of see a lot like I could see 11 and 1, like rather easily, I think. So like to, to say that they're gonna go undefeated, to me, it's just like I, I would maybe pump the brakes a little bit on that.
Doug Lemarice
All right, I have a trivia question here for you guys. There are four power conference teams that have the lowest projected win total on FanDuel at 3.5 as they're over under. Do you know how many of them Notre Dame plays of those four?
Matt Fortuna
All of them.
Ari Wasserman
I'm guessing all of them.
Doug Lemarice
So like Syracuse.
Matt Fortuna
Go, go, go.
Bill Landis
Purdue, Michigan State, Stanford and BC bc.
Matt Fortuna
Oh, Syracuse is not on there, huh?
Doug Lemarice
And then syracuse is at 4.5 so. And then also UNC is at 4.5 so like they are going to play like half their schedule against teams that are terrible.
Ari Wasserman
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Doug Lemarice
My word for this would be like Impossibly perfect, like I like. So, Matt, this is. This is. This is the main thing. Is it reasonable to just say Marcus Freeman still sort of has this in his coaching DNA, they're going to stub their toe in a game they shouldn't because it has happened before, or is that a younger coach? Situationally, you get it. Don't hold that against him in this way.
Matt Fortuna
No, I think that's perfectly fair. Now, do I think it'll always be that way? No. And this would be a perfect year to reverse that trend, but it's been a head coach for four years and it's happened all four years, so I think that's perfectly reasonable. By the way, another trivia for the date of their first game they play against someone who had a winning record last year.
Doug Lemarice
Oh, never.
Matt Fortuna
No.
Doug Lemarice
What is it?
Matt Fortuna
October 17th.
Doug Lemarice
Oh, wow. Okay. Yeah. So that is the Wisconsin, Rice, Michigan State, Purdue, North Carolina, Stanford, start to the season.
Matt Fortuna
Now, Rice did go bowling at five and eight, but the others did not.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah, okay. All right. So if you're. If you. If you have that in your head at all with Marcus Freeman, it's like, you can't go. You can't bet on 12. 0. There's like one or two undefeated teams every year. That's it. I mean, this is what, like, is Notre Dame going to be the one undefeated team or one of the two undefeated teams? Like, that's what you're like. It's so difficult to do, even if your schedule's not that hard because probably you have a bad Saturday. Ari, what's your description here?
Ari Wasserman
Mine is just obviously, because what's the other. Like, what's. If it's not eleven and a half, then it's ten and a half, and then you're just like, in a, you
Matt Fortuna
know, or 11, and you're not going to lose money if you bet it? Like, yeah, it's just like, you.
Ari Wasserman
You can't go down anymore from there because the schedule is so bad. So, like, I. Like, that's what I was anticipating. But yes, like, just to echo everything, you know, I mean, I agree with that. It's like you're basically betting, is Marcus Freeman gonna get upset or not? And do you believe he's past that? So I, you know, I think that Notre Dame is a very good team. I thought they were a very good team last year. They don't play anybody good. And I think that that actually is crappy for the fans because, you know, part of the experience is enjoying big games and looking forward to something and it's just like, even if they end up losing a game, they shouldn't. That's not a fun experience because they're still going to make the playoff and be 11 and 1 at the very worst. But, you know, in terms of whether I would bet this or not, I probably would not bet it because it's just, you know, you never know when it's going to pop up. But going undefeated, like Landa said, it's very hard no matter who you are or who you play.
Doug Lemarice
This, I, I do think has, I mean, because Notre Dame and Ohio State have a lot in common, I think, including the fact that their Notre Dame's coach, by an Ohio State alum. But, like, I do think it's easy to compare these teams and Landis, I could see us just, like, getting to the point of Notre Dame's in the playoff at 12, 0. Ohio State's in the playoff at 10 and 2 or 9 and 3. And, like, who would you rather be? Would you rather be this, like, steamroller of a team that maybe hasn't been tested that is very similar to Ohio State a year ago, or would you rather be an Ohio State team that took a couple, couple losses but played multiple playoff teams and maybe is more prepared for it and this might be a good test case?
Ari Wasserman
If the Big Ten championship game happened in October, does Ohio State lose to Miami?
Bill Landis
I, I, I think maybe not. Yeah, I think maybe not. I, I kind of get what you're saying there. I do. I do.
Ari Wasserman
Because they beat him in the same exact way.
Matt Fortuna
Right?
Ari Wasserman
I mean, it was like, the same deal.
Bill Landis
And I think there was, I think there was enough, like, wonkiness with Ohio State's offensive staff at the time of the Indiana law. So they use that to rationalize a lot of what happened, rather than like, really looking under the hood before they played Miami.
Ari Wasserman
Then. I also don't know with what happened, if you can fix what happened, because it was a personnel issue, not a scheme issue. Right?
Bill Landis
I, There were times throughout the regular season where it felt like we were on the verge of some offensive line shuffling that never really happened. I think part of that was because of injury. I think had the Indiana game happened in the same fashion it did, but in October, Ohio State would have reworked its offensive line a little bit and been more.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah, but you, you would rather play that tough game earlier in the year and even, like, because, like, we used to say this when we were together. Guys, remember, what was the number one criticism of Urban Meyer? It took a drastic loss or something crazy to happen for him to adjust to it.
Matt Fortuna
That's like Marcus Freeman right now, to be honest.
Ari Wasserman
So I think it was true of
Bill Landis
Ryan Day in 2024. I think it's re engineered to defense when they lost Oregon.
Ari Wasserman
You know, you don't, if you're not healthy, you don't really make the health change until you go to the doctor and he tells you something's wrong. Right. Like it's like everything, everyone, it's human nature to, to try to look past things and think the best of it when, when you're not paying the consequences for that thing. But I think that like the battle tested thing is, is not so much, you know, how much tougher is your team having experienced that. It's what can your coaches glean off of playing teams that are capable of beating you in sure that when you play a team like that again, you don't lose in the same exact fashion. Like that's, it's like, it's like a self discovery thing more than it is a, you know, attitude thing.
Bill Landis
You don't have to be able to do it.
Doug Lemarice
You should be able to win and do it. But, but sometimes it's hard. Landis. Right, I agree with you. You shouldn't have to lose and do it.
Bill Landis
But that's what like, so, but Indiana, like almost losing to Iowa and almost losing to Penn State and playing like an absolute dog fight with Oregon in the regular season, I don't cover Indiana. I'd imagine they would say like that made them better for the postseason because they learned some stuff about themselves. It wasn't, it wasn't just that Ohio State won every game and played in the regular season last year. It's like they didn't have to break a sweat in winning every game they won. So, so even if it was boring,
Ari Wasserman
like in a fan perspective, like wouldn't you even rather like. I know that you would never admit that you would rather lose a game because losing sucks. But from an experience standpoint, if every season is its own living organism, don't you want there to be a low and a high and a story arc and like the reason why we watch these games at the basic level is entertainment. And I found Ohio State season to be quite boring last year.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah.
Matt Fortuna
By the way, Doug, just, just to answer your question, who would you rather be? 120 Notre Dame or 10 to Ohio State? The answer this year is Notre Dame because they have the ghost of Lou Holtz on their side and he will not be wishing well wishes on Ryan Day.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah. And I don't think that Notre Dame wants to be 10 and 2 ever again. So that as well.
Doug Lemarice
That's true. That's true. Matt, before we leave Notre Dame here, you know, with the ACC scheduling agreement, and then you look at these other games the Big Ten teams are playing at Wisconsin, Michigan State and Purdue, they're playing Rice, they're playing. We know that, we know they're always going to play Navy. Is, is there, is this just a blip and this is the way it is? Or like, do you look at this schedule and, and think to yourself, like, man, Notre Dame's got to do something here and make sure they're playing a couple more marquee games, especially in a world where they're not playing USC at the moment every season.
Matt Fortuna
Yeah, I think they got to do something. I don't know what that something is. So I don't want to sit here and act like I have all the answers because like, when you choose to be an independent, this is a situation you put yourself in. And as more and more conferences play more conference games, your inventory dries up. But yeah, you know, the ACC has not held up its end of the bargain from a competitive standpoint. Obviously Miami has, but few others have. I mean, they just announced a 12 year schedule. 12 year arrangement with Clemson. Is that going to help them with the way Clemson's been lately? I don't know. And again, 12 years is a long time. A lot can change over the course of that, that scheduling agreement. But I also would say when this agreement was agreed to in 2012, middle of the 2012 season, Notre Dame was not nerd name yet. Right. Like they were lost in the wilderness as a program. Brian Kelly, that was the middle of the famous 120 season where he got them back. And they've never really been the same since then. So Nerd AIM has kind of outgrown this agreement in my opinion. The acc, despite having a Clemson run here, a Florida State run there, and now Miami being the king of the hill in that conference, they've not, you know, collectively held up their end of the bargain. I mean, I shared the story on the the Independent podcast. You know, I spoke to someone hype at Wake Forest, the national title game this year, who said, matt, because of me. And you can probably guess who I'm talking to here. If you look it up. We have the fifth highest payroll in the ACC at Wake Forest. That should never happen. We are the smallest football playing school in the country. Power 4 football playing school in the country. Like why? What's everyone else here doing to keep up and to make this a powerful football conference. And Miami certainly made a lot of enemies in that league, but they're doing what they got to do to succeed on the football field. I'm not sure we're seeing that elsewhere in that league right now. And look, maybe you could say North Carolina tried, right? They went out and hired Bill Belichick. It may have been misguided, it may not be working, but they did try. But if you're Notre Dame, you look at your schedule right now and it's filled with ACC teams outside of Miami and maybe SMU this year, there's not a whole lot of meat on that boat. And they've got some future series against mostly SEC teams that should be pretty good, right? Texas, Alabama, Auburn and Florida. We'll see. But you know, when you lose usc, I mean Notre Dame needed USC more than usc. Notre Dame, that was, you know, at the end of the day, that was the fact of the situation. And I actually think Nerdy may have upgraded just this year because I think at BYU might be a tougher game than at USC would be this year. But long term, that's a whole Notre Dame schedule that they're going to have to make up for. And I think Clemson fills it a little bit, but not all the way.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah, okay, that's a good discussion. We're going to move to some more win total stuff. And Landis, we'll start with you. There are three teams that have win totals of 10.5. As we said, there are the two teams at the top in Notre Dame and Texas tech are at 11.5. At 10.5, Windsor, Indiana, Oregon and Miami. Bill, who do you like more to go over of those three teams?
Bill Landis
Miami for. For all of the reasons Matt started to kind of lay out there. I just think the ACC is bad. Like it's. I went through Miami schedule and tried to like, say like, oh, who, who, who might they lose to? Like and it's like at Notre Dame and then I don't really know what else like at Clemson. Don't see at Clemson being a test right now. Virginia Tech at the end of the year, if James Franklin has some stuff figured out, maybe that's an interesting game. But I, I just think especially compared to those other two like Indiana and Oregon both play Ohio State, Michigan, USC and Washington. And you know, I could, I could see both teams certainly being 11 and 1, but that just seems like there's a lot more potential kind of pitfalls on that schedule than there are on Miami's. And, and I think Miami is like not super high in returning production, but like, you bring back Malachi, Tony, you bring back Mark Fletcher. I think he probably upgraded a quarterback with Daria Mensah. I think there are a lot of young guys on that defense who weren't superstars last year, replayed a decent amount who are now stepping up. And I think that defense should still be pretty good, but it's primarily a function of just how bad the ACC is right now that I, that I think Miami for me comfortably is the one I would take over. Out of these three teams, you could
Ari Wasserman
actually make the case that Miami schedule is easier than Notre Dame's. I don't know, maybe it's not. I mean, but it's in the same realm.
Doug Lemarice
It is the same realm because like, yeah, BYU is probably. So they play each other and then like, what's the toughest other game for either Notre Dame or Miami? It's probably BYU for Notre Dame, Ari. Like, I don't think there's a Miami equivalent on that.
Matt Fortuna
Clemson October 3rd, which, who knows, right?
Ari Wasserman
Yeah, but. And you could make the case that the road game to Provo would be harder at the point. We don't know what Clemson is going to be just yet, but Clemson's kind of at the brink here. So that said, Miami does make a habit of losing to some pretty boneheaded head scratchers every year. So, yeah, you know, you don't know who it's going to be, but it's kind of the same discussion as the Marcus Freeman thing of like, will he get bitten again? Like, will Miami get bitten and by who? You know, you're not supposed to see those coming.
Doug Lemarice
I'm actually going to take Indiana here because I as. As much as Indiana does have, as you said, Bill, their end of the season after they play Ohio State is at Michigan, Minnesota off week, USC at Washington. Like those are three or four games are tough down the stretch, but I just kind of don't think they're going to lose except maybe to Ohio State. Like, I just think 11 and 1 is really on the table here. And for Miami to go on the road to Notre Dame and then like, who might lose a screwy game? I mean, I don't. Kurt Signetti kind of hasn't lost a screwy game yet. Like I. And like last year, I mean, I was one of the people. I liked Illinois last year. I thought that was going to be the one. Illinois, Indiana. This is going to be a prove it game and then Indiana wins by 50 and so when you think about Kurt Signetti against USC or Washington or Michigan in situations like that, like I think Indiana might win by 50 again. So I think like Indiana's here and I think Indiana Ohio State is going to be a banger. And certainly, you know, I think that's a toss up game as we think about it now. But I just am not comfortable sort of anticipating that Indiana is going to lose to anybody else. So then I'll take 11 and one Indiana at a at worst as the team that I think is more comfortably over that ten and a half. So we have one vote for Miami, we have one vote for Indiana. Ari, what's your vote?
Ari Wasserman
I'm probably gonna go with Miami too. Not to be boring, but that was the one that jumped out to me and Landis covered it. So, you know, I have a bad habit in my life of repeating what other people say and I'm gonna try to be better about it. Yeah, I just think that, you know, Miami spent a lot of money in infrastructure, their lines. The thing that, you know, you know, we have to respect about Miami is that they've done such a good job of doing the blend which is recruiting really high level players out of high school, a lot of which came from, a lot of whom came from the, the trenches. And then they've done a really good job of, you know, supplementing their roster with high talented players. And their quarterback I think is much better this year. So you know, when you look at their schedule, you know Notre Dame is going to take catch flack all year for having an easy run of it. And I don't think that Miami has been criticized enough and a lot of that's obviously out of their control. Being in a conference, but outside of of Notre Dame, I'm not looking at their schedule thinking like they're going to lose that.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah.
Ari Wasserman
So Miami seems like the same like Indiana to me. Like, and I don't know this, like I have to research but like if you're losing your best players, like why is Indiana viewed that way? I actually would probably be on the reverse of it. Like 9 and 3 would be a pretty good follow up year to a team that came out of nowhere, won a national championship and lost all their best players. I know Josh Hoover is going to be good, but like it's a toss up with Ohio State. Talent for talent, pound for pound, player for player. Right now,
Doug Lemarice
no High State's more talented, but Ohio State was more talented last year too, I would say across the board. Yeah, they brought in Some targeted, you know, they brought in some targeted transfer guys to fill some spots. I, I don't know that I don't think they'll be as good, but I just think Signetti's a wizard. So, Matt, are you in Miami also? Who else? You. Who you picking?
Matt Fortuna
This will be great content, right? Miami's actually the one I trust the least out of all three of these. Not to say they can't win the national title, but I mean, they still haven't won the ACC title because they, they get bored. You know, like they get up for big games and it's like, oh yeah, you still got to play a little bit home. You still got to do this, still got to do that. I, I think Notre Dame's going to beat them. I think those are two talented teams. I think you'll probably be a night game, it'll probably be cold, it'll be in South Bend. And Notre Dame's got a massive chip on their shoulder when they're going up against Miami. So I, I think that's a loss. And then you basically got to trust Mario Crispball in this roster to not screw up the rest of the way. And again, I feel more comfortable putting my money on Miami to win it all next year than I do for them to go over ten and a half. Because I just. We've seen it, right? Like Syracuse two years ago, like the fact that this roster has not won an ACC title. And by the way, the coach, coach, they fired Manny Diaz. A Duke has. Is crazy to me. And I know there are a million different, like, external factors that add up for that equation. But look, Brisbane has done what he came back to Miami to do, which is, you know, bring the U back and make him a national power. They are that. It's still crazy that they have not won an ACC title in that league
Ari Wasserman
given how like a year under him, they've only been like high level good for two years, like Cam Ward year and last year. But like they haven't won an ACC championship in the last two years is crazy. But they were like a bad program for like their entire existence in the acc.
Matt Fortuna
So like, it's a bad. I mean, they were the second best program in the ACC behind Clemson wins wise when Manny Diaz was there. And I'm not. I know their talent was nowhere near what it is now, but.
Ari Wasserman
But I think that we should be viewing Miami as like a forward thing, not a backward thing. Like, I think that like they are just at a place that they hadn't been.
Matt Fortuna
I would also Say, though in this era of college football, as Doug alluded to earlier, like, you know, if you can get in at 10 and 2 with a close loss at Notre Dame, like, yeah, I think it's really hard to keep a roster of 85 plus guys locked in for a champion the length of a championship run, which will be.
Ari Wasserman
Are you past the Mario Crystal ball coaching blunders thing? Like, are you past that or do you still think that he's a liability as a head coach?
Matt Fortuna
I, I was never like all in in that group because I feel like that's just like a popular thing to do on social media. And the guy's obviously very good at what he does, but I do think he undervalued special teams and it cost him a national championship last year.
Ari Wasserman
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Doug Lemarice
But it's interesting, Ari. So, Ari, you want to think of like Miami forward thinking, but do you think of Indiana's forward thinking?
Ari Wasserman
I do, but Indiana's? Oh, for sure. I think that. I think Kurt Signetti. Is it crazy to say that he's the best coach in college football?
Matt Fortuna
No, not at all.
Bill Landis
No.
Doug Lemarice
I think it's crazy to say anything
Ari Wasserman
other than not okay.
Matt Fortuna
I mean, his hit rate was a. Has been pretty much 100 on transfers.
Ari Wasserman
Guys, you also have.
Matt Fortuna
Eventually it won't be 100, which is why I don't know if I want to go 11 and one Indiana. My answer to this question, by the way, is Oregon. I haven't gotten to him yet. They're the only one. Plus money. Only one that's plus money on the over plus 116. And I think they lose at Ohio State. And I think they win all their other games. That's kind of been the MO Under Dan Lanning the last few years, at least. When the games are supposed to win, who's the ones you're not, maybe even win one that you're not supposed to, like Ohio State in the regular season. But the only team that's beaten him the last two years are the teams that won the national title. And I know it's not the easiest schedule in the world, but let me pull it up here just to be sure. I mean, they're not going to lose at Oklahoma State. I don't think they lose at usc. And if they do, we're going to have a completely different discussion about the Big Ten race. If USC wins, that game at Illinois will be tricky. They get Michigan at home and they get Washington at home. Like, I think that's 11 and one season.
Ari Wasserman
I want to revisit what you asked me, though, Doug. My Indiana thing isn't. Because I don't think Indiana is going to be good for the foreseeable future. My Indiana thing is, like, their schedule is much harder than Miami's. Like, I. I don't know. Like, being an overwhelming. Or one of the four teams that is an overwhelming favorite to win the national championship is a different discussion than, like, is.
Doug Lemarice
My.
Ari Wasserman
Like, I think that they're very similar in that. But the circumstances around Indiana make it harder to get to 11 wins than I would say for Miami.
Doug Lemarice
It's. USC is. Is the. The. The pivot point of this Big Ten season because they play everybody. And if they're good, they play Oregon, they play Washington, they play Penn State, they play Ohio State, they play Indiana. And if they're good and they win a couple of those games, because, like, those are all teams we think can make the playoff. Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State with an easy schedule. Right. That. That might be Penn State's toughest game is. Is usc if USC starts beating people. Matt, to your point, like, if Oregon goes to USC early in the season and USC wins, like, I think all bets are off in the Big Ten race, and we don't know how those dominoes are gonna fall now. And it's like a Jenga tower built on Lincoln Riley.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah. And, like, I think that USC is, like, kind of like last. Like Texas A M was this last year. Texas A M mucked it up for a lot of teams last year.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah.
Ari Wasserman
On the way. They mucked it up for Notre Dame and then a lot of teams that were, like, on the verge of either hiring or firing coaches I mean, Auburn, Florida, Arkansas, lsu, Mizzou, like, all those wins, like, kind of, like changed program trajectories. But I think that USC is a more prime example of, like, how it impacts the actual given race in a given year. But, like, Texas A M was a hurricane of chaos last year. If you, like, go back and look at their schedule.
Matt Fortuna
I mean, yeah, the USC part's interesting because, like, Lincoln Riley and probably the Whiteout three time zones away, just, like, forget who's coaching or playing for Penn State. Do you trust him? And he's also got to go back to Rutgers. And I don't say that like they're gonna lose the Rutgers, but, like, you look at Lincoln Riley when he's gotta go two plus time zones, it's not good at all. And part of the reason, independent of, like, the real tough teams they got to play next year, right? So I. I just think there's so many moving parts with USC that it's just very like, if only. And this is a big if, because I thought Illinois thoroughly outplayed them for 60 minutes. But if they win that Illinois game last year and they go 10 and 2 with road losses in every name, and Oregon, they're in the playoff, and we're looking at this program completely differently. And yet they didn't do that against Illinois, and they almost lost at home against Iowa. And they still showed, like, the win at Nebraska was, like, this milestone win for them because it was their first, what, Big Ten road win, other than UCLA or something like that. I mean, I still got to see it from usc. I know the recruiting has been on a tear. I know they should be better than they are. In fact, they were better last year than I thought they would be. But I still got to see it
Doug Lemarice
from these guys if they get. So I don't think anyone thinks USC is going to go to Indiana. And when they get Oregon and Ohio State at their place, if they win one of those two games, if they beat Oregon at Ohio State, like, it shifts. It shifts. Like, that's. That's an extra Ohio State loss that maybe you didn't see coming. That changes the trajectory of Oregon season, as you said, Matt, if that happens early. So USC is super interesting here. All right, we're gonna. This. We're gonna open it up a little bit. Everything's out there. What's your favorite over? On any win total that's out there, what's your favorite under? We'll start with the over. And I just wouldn't like to invite Landis, you know, Where I'm going here. And I just. Matt, probably Matt knows too, from the playoff show. Invite everybody to join me on the Kentucky Wildcats bandwagon. Four and a half for Will Stein and Kenny Minchie. Now as I look at it, I think Kentucky plays like 17 preseason ranked teams. Their schedule is ridiculous. But I am in on this and I am way over on the four and a half. I think they're gonna beat some of these mediocre SEC teams that, that aren't ready for them. I think that could be like Texas A M. I think it could be South Carolina. I think it could be Vanderbilt. I think it could be. I think it could be Florida. I think it could be Missouri. But Matt, I need you. You're Kenny Minchi, the Notre Dame transfer. You knew him well. Is it crazy for me to be this in on Kentucky over four and a half? Because I'm basing it on Will Stein and Kenny Minchie.
Matt Fortuna
No, it's not crazy. I need to look at their schedule here to see just how not crazy it might be.
Bill Landis
It's crazy. It's crazy. Ari, do you know that Doug put Kentucky in his playoff?
Matt Fortuna
Yeah, I didn't say playoff. I said win five games.
Ari Wasserman
That is really funny to me is that we recorded Andy and Ari this morning and obviously we did win totals because they got released. And guess where we started. If you had to guess the sec
Matt Fortuna
because Andy's week two Alabama. Doug, I wonder if your favorite under is going to be Alabama under eight and a half.
Ari Wasserman
But we had this discussion today and it's funny enough, this is like the upset of the century that like Doug and. And Andy agree. Like Andy thinks that four and a half is egregiously low for them. Now we played a game this morning and we went down the list of the teams are playing and I don't have it in front of me right now. I can, I could pull it up. How many games does Kentucky play against programs that should be further along than they are now? They have two like easy non conference wins. So you're already halfway there basically before they even get to the SEC schedule. But they would have to, they would have to win two games against teams that would be devastated to lose to them. For them to hit, to hit their. Their over.
Matt Fortuna
They get Vandy and Florida at home. That could be four right there. Alabama's gonna be super. I mean, I think we, you know, once we stop looking at them as Alabama, we just look at. I mean, what are they on returning production? It's not good for, for Bill Connolly here, like.
Ari Wasserman
But the playoff, I'd love to unpack that a little bit more.
Doug Lemarice
September 12th. I mean, there is no doubt about it. September 12th, Alabama at Kentucky in returning production.
Matt Fortuna
90th in returning production from a team that should not have even been in the playoff last year.
Doug Lemarice
Just get on board.
Ari Wasserman
Listen, Alabama's eight and a half win total is interesting because, like, I can't. I'm sure I was in middle school the last time Alabama's win total wasn't at least nine and a half. So like, I like, don't think that Alabama is some sort of world beater, but we're just talking about programs and where they should be next year. And even if Alabama has a bad year and there are seven or an eight win team, that's still conceivably, you know, further along than than Kentucky should be. But Kentucky did invest a lot in their roster. They did get a quarterback who, you know, may be very good and underrated. And I have a lot of really great things to say about Will Stein and he seems to get it.
Matt Fortuna
Come on.
Ari Wasserman
And like, I could imagine like one of these, one of these SEC coaches that were hired like John Summerall or, or, you know, Will Stein or somebody is going to be a star in the sport at some point and I, and I wonder if like Will Stein is the guy. But like four and a half seems very low and I could see them being a five or six win team. The playoff thing's a little bit much for me.
Matt Fortuna
Doug.
Ari Wasserman
Sorry about that. But I. But I like your pick and Andy agrees with you too.
Doug Lemarice
All right, Tell Andy Taylor what's up, brother.
Ari Wasserman
I will. Our show goes live today, so you'll see it.
Doug Lemarice
Ari, what's your favorite? Over.
Ari Wasserman
So I'm going to stay in the sec and I think this might actually crash and burn pretty badly. But like, in the moment, I am very amused by South Carolina being the.
Bill Landis
Like couldn't help himself.
Ari Wasserman
I couldn't. Well, no, South Carolina being like the dark horse program a year ago at this time to make the playoff and then returning all of the pieces that caused people to think that way while also adding one of the best offensive linemen in the portal and then them being at six and a half now, I'm not on the South Carolina to the playoff train, but if you do believe that Lenora Sellers is a good player, which I do. If you think Nick harbor could be unlocked downfield, if you think they've got one of the best edge rushers in the country, and then Jacarius Pete gets healthy enough to play. Like if they fix their offensive line they should be able to win seven games. Like I don't think seven and five is out of the question for South Carolina, especially now with one of their games being against Clemson. Clemson not being very good. So I really like that and I think that I'm always kind of like a buck the trend person. Like last year when South Carolina was getting all the love, I was like, all right guys, let's relax here. They're not going, you know, 10 and 2 or 11 and 1 and it went terribly. But now I think that because it went terribly a year ago that we have overcorrected the other way and like, okay, they could very much be a 7 and 5 or 8 and 14 next year. That doesn't mean they're great. But in that conference where I think that we do overvalue some of the road games, like sometimes you're like, oh, South Carolina has to go to A and M. How could they conceivably win that? It's like pretty easily if you actually pay attention to the way that things go in the conference. So you know, it is a, A, you kind of have to like put your neck out there and maybe live through some uncomfortability during that journey. But if the end result of their season is seven and five, like you're a winner. And I think that they have, if you did like a list of teams with the most physical freaks on them, like South Carolina would be in the top 10 percentile of that. So like I, I think that six and a half is like a game too low.
Doug Lemarice
SEC just has to prepare for the car crash that is coming. Eleven of the 16 teams in the SEC have win totals between six and a half and eight and a half and they're just going to be banging heads and they aren't going to know what hit them. With this nine game conference schedule. So good. Matt, what's your team two that I
Matt Fortuna
have my eye on in the Big Ten? Ryan Walters current job and his former job, Purdue and Washington. Purdue's at three and a half, washings at seven and a half, wash in it's minus 144. Juice on the over. I look at Washington's schedule, which I mean they might beat this before November. November gets juicy. They've got Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana and Oregon. But before then, I mean they got a realistic chance of running the table until then. Especially with the Mon. Williams back at quarterback. I think they are top 20 on Bill Connolly's. Production returning production value. I think Judd Fish is one of the more underrated coaches of the country. I have a hard time seeing this team not winning nine or 10 games, let alone eight. So that's why I like Washington and then Purdue's three and a half. I just think Barry Odom's too good of a coach to have back to back stinkers. I think Purdue was one of the unluckiest teams in the country last year. I mean if you watch that Rutgers game, it's just like a comedy of errors that happens all at the worst possible time that that results in this team losing a game. I think the guy knows what he's doing. Another team that I think is top 40 in terms of returning production, they bring back Ryan Brown at quarterback schedules not terrible. Obviously playing Notre Dame in the non conference is not going to help their cause. But outside of that, I mean yeah, you go to Indiana at the end, but this will be decided before then. I mean you got Wisconsin at home, Maryland at home, Minnesota at home, Wake Forest, Indiana State at home. You go to Illinois. I have a hard time seeing this team not going at least 4 and 8 if not significantly better if things go their way. So Those are the two I like for over both Big Ten schools.
Doug Lemarice
Pound the Boilermakers. Landis, what's your team?
Bill Landis
I also have two if it's okay to give them. I have two teams in the Big 12. I got two Big 12 teams. BYU, eight and a half. BYU has won 21 regular season games the last two years. I and like they, they play Notre Dame. I think they'll probably lose that game. They don't play Texas Tech and they're like I think they can beat everybody else in the Big 12. And you're giving me two more losses to play with there in addition to the Notre Dame loss that I think will happen. So I, I like that quite a bit with what BYU returns. BYU is also top 20 returning production this year. I'm a little worried about losing J. Hill as defensive coordinator but the bulk of their returning production is on defense so hopefully that will like mitigate that a little bit. And then one other one I was looking at in the, in the Big 12 and actually that the value is not, not really that good. But who's the best quarterback in the Big 12 this year and why is it Drew Mesta Maker oh and I, and I just, I think Oklahoma State has not won a Big 12 game in the last two years. Our number is five and a half. I just think there's a lot of upward mobility in that conference. If you look at like how Utah and Houston kind of flipped it from 2024 to 2025, I think Oklahoma State, with an influx of dudes from North Texas, including Messamaker, including Caleb Hawkins, can probably find themselves to a bowl game against that schedule. That aside from playing, they play Oregon in the non conference, which are not going to win, but then they play. They don't play Utah, they don't play byu. They don't play. I think like TCU and Baylor, like the other teams in the top five of the, of the conference title odds that they don't, they don't play. So aside from like Texas Tech and Houston, they just play a lot of the other teams sort of like in the middle to the bottom of the league. So I think they could find themselves in bowl game territory next year. So I don't, I don't mind the five and a half there.
Matt Fortuna
Fun fact. How many games has BYU won outright as underdog the last two years?
Bill Landis
No idea.
Matt Fortuna
Seven. They've always slept on. Always.
Doug Lemarice
Okay, that's a good number. Oh, I like that one. All right, we're going to flip it. We'll end with this. Ari, back to you, your favorite under of everything that's out there on the board.
Ari Wasserman
I think I'm gonna be a hater on this one, but like, we know Landis is Ohio State, right? Like yours. I'm gonna take Texas Tech here. Yeah, Are you there too, Matt? Like 11 and a half in the Big 12 seems like pretty risky business. Like we, we joke on our show all the time. Like every single spread in the Big 12 should just be three and a half because like, and they typically are even dating back to like when Texas and Oklahoma, they would be, you know, national championship contenders in September, who were three and a half point favorites on the road at Kansas State. I understand that Texas Tech got a pretty favorable draw. They don't have to play byu, you know, and they, they don't really have a game on, have a very easy schedule. But then I look at like the last three games of the year at Oklahoma State, at Baylor and tcu. Like, you know, teams that are usually pretty competent at the, the last two. And then Oklahoma State, who's rising the way that Bill just said it was a good segue. Like Houston, I think is going to be much better than people think. Arizona State beat them last year. They're on the road at Cincinnati. Like, they're not going to slip one time. They're like, I think Demanding perfection in college football is a really hard thing to do. Even though I have a ton of respect for Joey McGuire, the money they're spending to accumulate their talent and the fact that they have a higher talent level than everybody. But I just think that like demanding perfection in college football is insane and doing it in the Big 12 is particularly insane. So I'm going to take the under of Texas Tech and I think that they'll be likely 11 and 1 heading into the postseason.
Bill Landis
Yep.
Doug Lemarice
Texas Tech and Notre Dame, the two eleven and a halfs. Yep.
Matt Fortuna
Just, yeah, take what Ari said, apply to mine. I had Texas Tech under 11 half as well. It is minus 192 on the juice for the under. But like this, I get it. Their schedule is a joke relative to what you could have gotten in the Big 12. Their defense will be great again. I do think we're all just a little guilty of pulling the trigger quickly and saying, well, all they were missing was a quarterback and they got that. So now Instead of going 111 like they did last year, they'll go 12 and oh like no, it's the Big 12. Like crazy stuff happens. You can lose a game. And there are a lot of other variables in the college football season that to just trust this team to automatically go undefeated. I'm just not there yet. So I will take the under with the Red Raiders as well. But I do think they win the
Doug Lemarice
league and make the playoff and they're losing David Bailey. They're losing Jacob Rodriguez. Right. Like they're.
Matt Fortuna
Yeah, they're losing. And a lot of sad turnover too on the defensive side of the ball.
Ari Wasserman
Yeah.
Doug Lemarice
All right, Landis. What you're under.
Bill Landis
Are we sure that Vanderbilt can win seven games with a nine game SEC schedule while playing a freshman quarterback? Like it just, it seems like maybe a big, like I, I like Clark Lee. I think Clark Lee's a really good coach and I know that they were a fun team last year and had a nice season, but they're losing some guys. Their schedule is decently tough. Like even they have two non conference games are definitely going to win, but their third is like NC State, which is, I don't know, like a toss up maybe given we're kind of where both teams are. I guess, I guess you like Vanderbilt. They're at home in that game. But I just think freshman quarterback in the SEC is enough for me to think that Vanderbilt's probably not going to win seven games this year.
Ari Wasserman
God, you, you land us. And Doug, like, I mean, mind meld, he was Totally on the under the Vandy on, on the show too.
Bill Landis
So.
Ari Wasserman
Okay. But that's funny because like I feel like I'm doing the same show again.
Bill Landis
It's.
Ari Wasserman
It's amazing how much you guys agree.
Doug Lemarice
The only thing I don't like about that pick, which was also my pick, is that that leads to a season long discussion about how much Vandy misses Diego Pavia, which is gonna make me puke in my mouth. So I'm probably like rooting for Jared Curtis. Like good luck, young man. And there were a lot of true freshman quarterbacks. Like that's a thing that. Right. Guys play now and guys played last year but like. And played pretty well. Bear Bachmeier played pretty, pretty well at byu. But you also saw like Bryce Underwood's very talented. There are some bumps in there. Right? So like, I don't think you can assume that Jared Curtis isn't going to have some bumps. I mean this is just like the roulette wheel spin of like name that SEC under. I was just like I could sit in that casino all day. So I can't quite get there on Alabama because the thing that makes me the happiest about Alabama's number being 8.5 is that Alabama's number is 8.5. It's not even like there's no money to be made there because everybody agrees they're mid. You shout for two years that Bama's mid and finally people listen. 8.5. My God, they're Wisconsin. So like it's just. That's enough for me. I don't have to bet it to enjoy it. Right. So, you know, I'm not going to sit here and say that 6 and 6.
Ari Wasserman
But pleasure too is if the over hits their fan base could still be bitterly disappointed too.
Bill Landis
Yeah.
Ari Wasserman
Even if they get a nine win. Yeah.
Doug Lemarice
They're not having a parade for kaylan Deborah at 9 and 3. We hit the over. We're not.
Matt Fortuna
That's so like, oh, 93 Bama, 93 Ohio State. Mark it down on the show on March 23rd.
Doug Lemarice
Just, I mean, for real, if you want to get. I can't just forget. Tune into the postgame show after Kentucky beats Alabama in week two. Like we'll, we'll, we'll be enjoying that. Man, that was some good college football content here in late March. We appreciate you guys so much. Ari, everybody knows you, they love you. But just remind the folks where they can find you talking and writing about college football.
Matt Fortuna
Right.
Ari Wasserman
About college football@on3.com main page. And we do a daily podcast, Andy Staples and I called Andy and Ari on three that goes Monday through Friday every day at 3pm Eastern on the YouTube channel, wherever you get your podcast. And then during the season we have a Saturday night reaction show. So thanks for having us on and or me on and it's always fun being with you guys.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah, we love it, man. And Matt Fortuna, you're the best. Where can folks find you talking and writing about college football at large? Notre Dame, the Big Ten, everybody else
Matt Fortuna
just like you guys. I'm on Substack, the Inside zone. Inside zone MF.com will be changing up a little bit the regionals here for Sweet 16 Elite 8 in Chicago. So I'll be doing hoops this weekend and drive to Indy for the Final Four, the men's Final Four next weekend. But last spring football practice to be covered as well. And we're doing plenty of that on our nerd aim podcast, the Independent with Pete Sampson and me. Thanks for having me on the show, guys.
Doug Lemarice
Yeah, great stuff, Landis. We are going full heavy. Ohio State football spring practice back on Tuesday for the Buckeyes, right?
Matt Fortuna
Yeah.
Bill Landis
Excited. We're going to talk with Arthur Smith this week for the first time. We get Matt Patricia this week, Cortez Hankton also. So some new coaches on on the docket for interviews and yeah, Ohio State was off last week, but they're back at it this week running up to the spring game on April 18th.
Doug Lemarice
So come find us. Bill and Doug osu.substack.com Awesome show, Ari, Matt, thanks for the insight, brothers. Thanks to you guys for being here. For now, on behalf of Ari Wasserman, Matt Fortuna and Bill Landis, I'm Doug Lemarice and that was around the shoe on the Bill and Doug Show.
Ari Wasserman
Bank of America champions. Everyone who dares to ask what would
Doug Lemarice
you like the power to do as
Ari Wasserman
a coach to 16 competitors in Augusta National Women's Amateurs? I ask myself this question every season
Doug Lemarice
to help my athletes keep their eye
Matt Fortuna
on the ball far beyond any course they play.
Ari Wasserman
Bank of America is proud to be
Matt Fortuna
a presenting partner of the Augusta National Women's Amateur bank of America NA Member fdic.
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Episode: Buckeyes' tough football schedule & what to make of their 9.5 win total
Date: March 23, 2026
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises, Bill Landis
Guests: Ari Wasserman (On3), Matt Fortuna (Inside Zone)
This episode dives into Ohio State’s 2026 football outlook—specifically, the intriguing 9.5 over/under win total set by sportsbooks such as FanDuel. Doug, Bill, Ari, and Matt examine how the Buckeyes' challenging schedule, alongside major college football changes, shapes expectations for Ryan Day’s team. The episode expands into a broader discussion of national championship favorites, the evolving landscape of power programs, and their favorite over/under picks on other major teams.
On Ohio State’s “Upset-Proof” Profile:
On the Changing CFB Landscape:
On Betting Ohio State’s Over:
On Notre Dame’s Schedule:
On Overvaluing History:
On Miami’s Perennial Disappointment:
This episode provides an incisive look at how Ohio State’s 2026 season is framed by shifting schedules and changing playoff realities. The hosts and panelists blend big-picture concerns—how fans should adjust to more losses as the big leagues cannibalize each other—with in-the-weeds program analysis. Beyond Buckeye talk, there’s sharp discussion of Notre Dame, Indiana, Miami, Oregon, and the challenges of betting college football over/unders in this new era.
If you want to understand the real risks, the gut-check “locks,” and the ways in which tradition collides with the modern playoff, this is can’t-miss insight—delivered with humor, candor, and passion for the game.