← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Ohio State, Texas Tech, Indiana, Miami and picking the best College Football Playoff defenses
00:38:53
What are the best defenses in the College Football Playoff? On this episode, Bill Landis and Doug Lesmerises draft all eight defenses remaining in the national championship chase, talk about which teams really are Natty caliber on that side of the ball, and make a difficult choice about what is really the No. 1 defense remaining.
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- [00:02]
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- [00:56]
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Doug Lee Maurice
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Doug Lee Maurice
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- [01:27]
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- [02:02]
Doug Lee Maurice
Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. Doug lamarice and Bill Landis drafting the best defenses in the College Football Playoff. The eight remaining teams. Bill Landis we have charts, we have discussions. We hope you guys had a great holiday with family and friends and I think I it's not the only it's not the end all be all but going by the the FEI ratings which is a drive to drive metric from from Brian from o I think there are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 I guess five. Only five five of the eight teams have a better defensive rating than offensive rating but I I don't know there's probably right pretty definitively maybe five teams that are defense first. Maybe you could argue six and maybe you could argue I think there's only one team in the playoff that is definitively offense first and it might be like there are five defense firsts two that are pretty even in one offense first. Something like that. It's a defensive playoff is it not.
- [03:09]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I, I even thought that before we got to this point, like, just like serving the initial 12 team field, it felt like there was a much stronger correlation between good defense and being in than there was like, elite level offense. I think something like. And I. I mentioned this before, I believe, like seven of the top 10 scoring defenses were in the playoff or something like that. So, yeah, I think it's a. I think it's a. I guess I'll say this, like, I feel pretty strongly that, like, whoever wins the national title, like, their defense is going to be what leads them there.
- [03:42]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay, let's run through it real quick. Ohio State offense or defense first or even defense first.
- [03:50]
Bill Landis
Texas Tech defense first. Indiana defense first. Miami defense first.
- [04:01]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay. And those are no doubt about it, right? Definitive. Is that. Is that fair to say?
- [04:07]
Bill Landis
I think so.
- [04:09]
Doug Lee Maurice
Bama.
- [04:15]
Bill Landis
Yeah. Kind of. Kind of balanced. Maybe. Maybe a slight lean toward the defense, but kind of balanced.
- [04:22]
Doug Lee Maurice
Oregon.
- [04:26]
Bill Landis
I might go offense there.
- [04:28]
Doug Lee Maurice
Might go offense. FEI ratings. Oregon is seventh in defense and second in offense, so. But they have. But they have a good defense, right?
- [04:38]
Bill Landis
They do have a good defense.
- [04:39]
Doug Lee Maurice
They do have a good defense. Georgia. And guess what? The reason that this is a question is not because the Georgia's offense is so good. It is a reminder that Georgia's defense. We are not in 2021 anymore. People, like. And I think everybody knows that. But just as a reminder, I think.
- [05:05]
Bill Landis
I think I would say defense just sort of given, like, the overall program identity with Kirby Smart leading it and the fact that their defense, like, has played better of late. So I'll go defense.
- [05:16]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. And then Ole Miss is definitively offense.
- [05:19]
Bill Landis
Offense. Yeah. So.
- [05:21]
Doug Lee Maurice
So that's where we are. Let's get to the draft.
- [05:27]
Bill Landis
You made me pick first last time.
- [05:29]
Doug Lee Maurice
So you guys, I was about to say you go first again. I was like, no, it's my turn to go first. Go back and find our quarterback. Draft. Like, subscribe. Tell a friend about the Bill and Doug Show. Thanks for being here. I'm filibustering. Like, can Ohio State simultaneously have the best defense in Ohio State history, but maybe not the best defense in this playoff?
- [05:56]
Bill Landis
Maybe, I guess.
- [05:58]
Doug Lee Maurice
Can we talk about one. Can we talk about a stat before I draft so you can help me draft?
- [06:04]
Bill Landis
Okay. Yeah. Yeah.
- [06:06]
Doug Lee Maurice
I looked at fei, which is a drive to drive metric, SP plus, which Bill Connolly of the SPN takes everything into account. Stop rate, which is how often you like, force an offense to. And a drive without a scoring opportunity. Success rate, which is a play to play. Are, you know, the do your job stat, are you as a defense, are you preventing the other team for doing your job? Havoc rate, which is tackles for loss, turnovers, like getting after people and blowing stuff up and then just points, points allowed. And so we have other stuff. I looked at tackles for loss and plays of 20 yards are more allowed, third down conversion, red zone, touchdown rate, that kind of thing. So I will just say this. Ohio State, Texas tech and Indiana, FEI, they're all top three. SP plus they're all top three. Stop rate, they're all top five. Success rate, they're all top eight points allowed, they're 1, 2 and 3. Havoc rate get Naftia causing chaos. Indiana's 1, Texas Tech is 2, Ohio State's 53. And I think the conversation is Miami is also very good, but I think the conversation really is Ohio State, Texas Tech, Indiana. Because I think we had said going into the playoff maybe with the four best defenses in the country, were those three teams plus Oklahoma. Is that a fair assessment of where we were?
- [07:25]
Bill Landis
Yes.
- [07:27]
Doug Lee Maurice
So talk me through because we've had this discussion many times about the Ohio State defense this year that they are mature, they are selfless, they are patient, they are are veteran and they want to cage you in prevent big plays, not let quarterbacks run. And they are not as concerned with blowing you up, forcing turnovers, getting a ton of sacks. For instance, when you look at tackles for loss this season, Indiana has 112, Ohio State has 74. Right. Like there's just a difference in like how much you're attacking. And I think we believe that watching Ohio State, if trade off is the right word, it's a worthy trade off. They're giving up the fewest points in the country. They're giving up the fewest points that anybody's given up since Alabama in 2011. They're allowing fewer than 10 points per game. And so if they aren't forcing turnovers and driving you crazy, they're making you work really hard and pretty much every single game nobody's been able to do it. Even Indiana beat them with 13. Right? You can't do it. But why are Texas Tech in Indiana similar to Ohio State in every major statistical category, yet both those defense defenses also get after you and blow you up and have a high havoc rate when Ohio State doesn't. Is that just a weird statistical anomaly that I should not worry about and it just is a stat. Throw it out the window. Or does it tell us something about the idea that maybe Indiana and Texas Tech are just as sound as Ohio State, but then perhaps significantly more disruptive while being just as sound.
- [09:14]
Bill Landis
Well, I like to separate havoc rate between, like, there's overall and then there's front seven havoc rate because the thing that Indiana and Texas Tech do at a much higher rate than Ohio State is get turnovers. Ohio State this year has 14 takeaways, which ranks 85th in the country.
- [09:36]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yep.
- [09:36]
Bill Landis
Texas Tech has 31, which ranks first, and Indiana has 25, which is tied for sixth. So all that goes into havoc rate if. And like, it's not. You just laid out like, Ohio State is not really near the top in sacks and tackles for loss either. But if you just separate front seven havoc rate. Ohio State's 19th. So like, they are significantly better just kind of getting after you up front than they are with their defensive backs who are very good, kind of taking the ball away. And like, they don't have a maniac linebacker like Jacob Rodriguez who's punching the ball out of everyone's hands. Like, I think there's, there's just some stylistic differences here where I think Texas Tech and Indiana hunt turnovers and Ohio State doesn't, and that's why there's that discrepancy there. But it's worth noting for sure if you're trying to separate like between these three defenses. And everything else is like, kind of equal. Although I would say that that's not necessarily true if you look at like red zone touchdown, like Texas, Texas is a pretty strong outlier in terms of being worse than the other two. But this is, this is a separating factor, I think, for those two teams. And it's, I think it's just, it's more like, what, what flavor of defense do you like than anything else? But if you wanted to use the, the lower havoc rate against Ohio State compared to those other two, I don't know that it's entirely off base because.
- [10:58]
Doug Lee Maurice
The thing that interests me about that havoc rate, it's like, is, is it a trade off? Well, Indiana and Texas Tech get after you and, and attack a little bit more. But then they also do give up X. And I. And I don't know that there's a ton of the X that they give up in the exchange in plays of 20 yards or more. Ohio State has given up the fewest of any defense in the playoff. They've given up 26, Texas Tech has given up 33 and Indiana has given up 39. Right. It's not like Texas Tech and Indiana have Both given up 50 or more. Third down conversion rate, Ohio State, Indiana And Texas Tech are all around the same thing. Ohio State's 29 allowed on third down, Indiana's 28. Texas Tech is 31. The outlier with Texas Tech is the red zone touchdown percentage. Texas Tech has given up a touchdown in the red zone 59% of the time. Indiana is 27% of the time. Ohio State's 33% of the time. You know, you can get back to the idea that Ohio State's given up the fewest points in the country and that matters. Ohio State is first in FEI and SP plus, but Texas Tech is first in stop rate and first in success rate. I can't pretend that I've had a ton of eyeballs on Texas Tech. I'm not so sure that Texas Tech isn't the pick here though. I don't know. Help me. It's my pick. I'll take the responsibility for it. But they have guys up front who will destroy you. And they also seem to be pretty sound, for sure.
- [12:36]
Bill Landis
I guess you would have to fall. You would have to like really kind of get into the weeds on like what, what have they faced? I think.
- [12:42]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah.
- [12:44]
Bill Landis
Which would take you a long time. But I would probably say that Ohio State's probably face some, some stiffer challenges defensively. For instance, like, Texas Tech has not had to face Indiana, which has one of the better offenses in the country. So I don't know, I, I think I would lean Ohio State over Texas Tech because Ohio State's defense just feels like a little more holistically solid rather than really driven by a ferocious front seven, which is a, you know, it's a great front seven for, for Texas Tech. And the eight points is really hard to like, eight points per game allowed is hard to, to look away from. I think, I think it is like between these two because even again, we're like really parsing here. But I was just looking at the like the FEI numbers. You can kind of get a little more granular like yards per play. Indiana is not bad, but compared to Texas Tech and Ohio State, like out those two teams are top two and Indiana is outside the top 10. First down rate, like percentage of an opponent's drives that gain at least one. First down, Texas Tech is one, Ohio State is two, Indiana's 33rd. So like teams move the ball slightly more against Indiana than they do against Ohio State and Texas Tech. So like that would remove. And then like you factor in also the Stephen Daly injury for Indiana and I think you were like remove Indiana from this conversation about who should be number One Ohio State or Texas Tech. I don't think you can go wrong. I like, you know, if I was making the pick, I think I would lean Ohio State, but I don't think he'd. You'd be wrong by picking Texas Tech necessarily.
- [14:31]
Doug Lee Maurice
It's hard because I do think right. When you're talking about the game at the highest level. Turnovers, obviously, swing games all the time. And so holistically, over the course of a season, I think you can talk stylistically. One team goes for turnovers and. And one doesn't. But one strip sack, one interception can be the difference between winning a national championship and. Or not. Ohio State has gained six fumbles this year in 13 games. Texas Tech has gained 15. That's the most in the country. Like you're saying, like they go after the ball. Right. And so that, that, that could be enough.
- [15:14]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I'm looking at to just as. Just because I know I was the one who said it. So EPA per play on offense, according to CFB graphs, Utah's 8th. Texas Tech played them and shut them down. And BYU. BYU is 11th. Texas Tech played them twice and shut them down. Ohio State obviously played Indiana, who's first. Ohio State also played Washington, who's 15th. Michigan, who's 18th. Cincinnati in the Big 12 was also in the top 20. So I don't know, maybe they've played similar competition other than the fact that Ohio State has played the best. Played the best offense in the country and I think did a nice job against them.
- [16:00]
Doug Lee Maurice
Do we think Texas Tech and Ohio State, not just in the playoff, are the two best defenses in the country?
- [16:06]
Bill Landis
Yes.
- [16:08]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay. And I think Indiana certainly has belonged in that conversation for much of the year, but with the injury and a couple of the outlier stats that you just mentioned, I think, I think maybe they're like right there next. They're probably gonna be the third pick here.
- [16:24]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I'll take Texas Tech.
- [16:25]
Doug Lee Maurice
I'm gonna take Texas Tech one.
- [16:27]
Bill Landis
Okay. Obviously I'll take Ohio State too. And like I said, I would have taken Ohio State first because like, it's better on third down Texas text 11th in the country and third down defense. Ohio State's sixth. And it's better in the red zone, as you mentioned. Six. Texas Tech 65th in the country in red zone defense. Ohio State's second. So they're just. Ohio State is like literally like top 10 in everything except for havoc rate. But even the fact that like their front seven, havoc rate is inside the top 20 would be enough for me to. To make them my first pick. And again, I just think like their talent is a little, it's a little more balanced throughout the defense. When you think of like all three, all three levels, there's, there are dudes there. And I'm not saying like Texas Tech does like bad in the secondary. They're not. But I think I would prefer Ohio State's defensive talent in the way that it's kind of spread out.
- [17:29]
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- [18:25]
Lowe's Advertiser
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- [18:57]
Doug Lee Maurice
Consensus All Americans on the defensive side of the ball, Ohio State 3 Caleb Downs, Arvell Reese and Kaden McDonald. Texas Tech 2 David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez. Georgia 1 CJ Allen, Miami 1 Ruben Bain. So those are the consensus first team all Americans on the defensive side of the ball who are still alive but just and you and I both brought this up just by PFF and again like just a guy, just a guide and we don't know who the PFF graders are and I was joking that maybe there's the PFF graders wearing a, you know, has a big bushy mustache and a musket with them in the press box and is like pressure. That's a pressure. That's a pressure. I don't know. David Bailey for Texas Tech has the most pressures of anybody left in the playoff with 77. Reuben Bane of Miami is second with 66. Romello Height of Texas Tech is third with 58. And Akeem Mezador from Miami is fourth with 55. So it's two Texas Tech guys and two Miami guys and nobody else has more than 48. And they're at 77, 66, 58 and 55. And the thing that I'm thinking about, like, if you. This is what we're talking about for this Ohio State Miami matchup is Reuben Bain and. And Akeem Mezador, like, what's Ohio State going to do? Are you sure their offensive line can block him? And if Ohio State played Texas Tech, I think we'd be talking about David Bailey all day. And certainly I think you would be. It's like, what do you want to talk. What scares you more? A couple, like, individual guys here or there. And it's not like Caleb Downs and Sunny Styles and Arvell Reese and Kaden McDonald and Kaden Curry don't scare you. But I think, like, Texas Tech would be like, holistically the way Matt Patricia calls that defense and how smart everybody is in implementing it. And then I think for Ohio State, it'd. We block David Bailey. I don't know. I'm not sure that we can. And so then, like, what is. What is more dangerous in a playoff situation like this? Because again, the way we're approaching it, I don't think we're approaching it as like, well, statistically, this is the answer to the question and that's who the best defense in the playoff is. It's which defense would you take? So you get. You're trying to win three games to win the Natty take a defense. And, and I guess maybe I'm, I'm, I'm going scooch bit, man. I just. Maybe Texas Tech has a better chance of. Of blowing up a play that swings a game. And I think they are maybe almost as sound. Is it like, is Ohio State the soundest defense in college football and Texas Tech is the most dangerous? But perhaps Texas Tech is a. Is a half step more sound than Ohio State is dangerous. Like, that kind of thing. And again and part of it. We've had this discussion. We were asking Matt, Matt Patricia questions about this. Some of it is choices Ohio State has made to not be dangerous because they haven't had to be dangerous. And if you decide we need to get after it and you tell Arvell Reese to let it rip. Holy moly. It might be on and, and we could be a month from now being like, remember when Doug picked. Texas Tech is having the best defense. What a stooge. Absolutely out there. But I'll, I'll. By the slimmest of margins. I'll.
- [21:53]
Bill Landis
We'll.
- [21:53]
Doug Lee Maurice
I'll take Texas Tech one, and then Ohio State's clearly two, and they're both national championship quality defenses.
- [21:59]
Bill Landis
They are, yeah. I think it's actually a really fun conversation, I think, with like, who, what? And again, it's just.
- [22:04]
Doug Lee Maurice
It's.
- [22:05]
Bill Landis
It's matter of preference, I think. Like, what would you rather have the defense that you can almost guarantee they're going to get a takeaway or two, which is like, is Texas Tech or just sort of like the impenetrable nature of Ohio State's defense, where it's like, yeah, you might move it a little bit, but you're not scoring. And like, I don't. I don't know what. Yeah, I. I clearly would lean. Would lean that way, but I don't know. I think we could talk, like, for another hour about which would you prefer, which one's better. Like, they're both excellent. I think they're unquestionably, especially with the injury situation at the end of the top two. Yeah.
- [22:39]
Doug Lee Maurice
And again, we talked about on the other show, the point here is we think the two weakest units in the playoff are the Ole Miss defense and the Texas Tech offense. So we're talking about, oh, Texas Tech has the best defense in the playoff. Well, they need to be the best defense in the playoff to have a chance to win this thing. So, okay, so then Indiana. I'll take Indiana 3. Is that the appropriate draft spot here?
- [23:02]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I think so. EPA per play defense, by the way. Texas Tech one, Ohio State two, Indiana four. Oklahoma's actually third.
- [23:13]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay. All right. That's the top four we talked about. So Indiana good. Stephen Daley, injury, really rough, but, like, playmakers, all three levels. Aiden Fisher, linebacker and the guys up front. And d' Angelo Ponce is really good. They showed it against Ohio State. And by the way, Indiana's out here, like, resigning their coordinators and, like, just quadrupling down on keeping this thing rolling. Brian Haynes, excellent. Like, Matt Patricia, also excellent. Right. And like, but like, I. I think we saw nothing against the Texas Tech scheme. Texas Tech may be more about individual excellence. Ohio State probably is about both individual excellence and cohesion. And Indiana might be, like, cohesion first and the way they play together and the way Brian Haynes dials that up for Indiana. We saw that. The Big Ten championship game. They had a real plan in that game, did they not?
- [24:08]
Bill Landis
They did, yeah. They've had one all year, I think. And it's not to take anything away from Indiana's defensive talent, because they have a lot of it. But, like, yes, it's the talent. It's the talent married to the scheme that. And it's like, I think if you're having that conversation, it's Indiana and Ohio State. Like I think Brian Haynes and Mapatrush are the two best defensive coordinators.
- [24:28]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay.
- [24:28]
Bill Landis
Kind of one of the teams we're talking about. And you would have to say that, that Haynes gets like more, more out of Indiana with, with less to work with. Again, no offense. They're good but, but they don't have, you know, as many consensus and unanimous all Americans as Ohio State has and they're not going to have as many high end draft picks as well. It's going to have off of this defense. Yet they remain as disruptive and in some cases, especially with the, the pressure they put on you with their defensive front more disruptive than Ohio State. So it's a real. Like, I don't. I know we're talking to mostly Ohio State fans and they want to hear how good Indiana is at the moment, but I, I think maybe among the most, among the most fun, if not the most fun defense to watch this year might be Indiana with some of the way State attack teams.
- [25:14]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay. All right, who's four?
- [25:17]
Bill Landis
I'm gonna go with Miami.
- [25:21]
Doug Lee Maurice
I think I would too.
- [25:23]
Bill Landis
Yeah. And part of that maybe is that they're a little fresh on the mind for me and I've been watching them a lot getting ready for the Ohio State Miami game and, and they were just in, in the kind of game where that was going to show up compared to, to some of these other defenses. But that the front's ridiculous. Like, and it's not, it's not just Bane and Mezador, obviously they go a long way but like the defensive tackle group is, is insanely good. I think the linebackers are good. You know, are they, are they as good at corner? I don't know. Probably not. If you were to identify a weak spot, I guess, I guess it would be that. But it's not like they're bad at corner. And then I think like Keonte Scott, their nickel is awesome. Like his, his versatility running past the way that he plays so aggressively. I, I was just like not super familiar with him kind of like prior to watching the Miami A M game. And I know that he had been hurt for a little bit and like this was his first game back, but I thought he was great and I think like, you know, he's not, he's not a game record to the same level as the guys up front, but he, he, to me like looks a guy. It looks like a guy that kind of like ties it all together, front end and back end with the way that he plays from that nickel spot. So they have, they have a ton of talent. Maybe I guess you could have a fun conversation like whose defensive line talent do you like more, Texas Techs or Miami's? But I think the fact that it's a conversation when everyone has really been kind of like celebrating Texas Techs all year, which would tell you just. Just kind of how good Miami's front is. So I'll roll with them fourth and I think feel. Feel pretty good about it. Like they're just. They're not really bad at anything.
- [27:01]
Doug Lee Maurice
No, I, I think they're a tiny bit below the top three, but clearly fourth FEI rating. That's drive to drive. They're six in the nation. SP plus they're eighth of the nation. Stop rate, which is ending drives, forcing opponents to end drives without a scoring opportunity. They're sixth in the nation. Six success rate. That's play to play. The do your job stat. Their defense is 11th in the nation. Havoc rate again, like forcing crazy stuff. They're 10th really good. And they're sixth in points per game allowed. So like they are. They are good across the board. And with a couple really scary guys up front.
- [27:37]
Bill Landis
They have three of the top 10 individually graded defenders in the playoff. Bane is fourth, Mezador is fifth, and Scott is seventh.
- [27:45]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay, how many SEC teams have we drafted so far? Let me double check.
- [27:52]
Bill Landis
Oh, I have a fun.
- [27:53]
Doug Lee Maurice
I mean, not sec, not sec. The SEC used to be a place defenses.
- [28:03]
Bill Landis
How many SEC defenders are in the top 20 individually highest graded players, defensive players in the playoffs?
- [28:15]
Doug Lee Maurice
I was listening to Fine Bomb the other day. I'm gonna say 26 out of 20 are from the SEC. One. False flag operation.
- [28:28]
Bill Landis
Bill Ray Hubbard at Alabama is 13th. He is the only SEC player in the top 22. And then you get the Kristen Miller, Georgia at 23. KJ Bolden at Georgia at 26 deep.
- [28:45]
Doug Lee Maurice
And then not right.
- [28:49]
Bill Landis
From Alabama at 30. So what's that? That I count four. Four SEC defenders among the top 30.
- [28:57]
Doug Lee Maurice
We just got a. Did you just see this come this email from the sec? Greg Sankey has announced that the SEC has seceded from pff. They no longer acknowledge the PFF rankings guide. So again, to be fair, we're. We're gonna have to get to RA that the SEC is good at because so far we've done quarterback and defense and they're not good at either of those. But I'm. I'm sure there's something we'll find.
- [29:22]
Bill Landis
Got to be something. Yeah.
- [29:23]
Doug Lee Maurice
Best holders in the playoff is five, Oregon.
- [29:31]
Bill Landis
So, yeah, I think, I think it is. There's. Well, you'll. You'll talk about it. There's the one sort of like statistical anomaly it feels like with Oregon, but even. Yeah. Given that, I still think they're probably the correct next pick.
- [29:45]
Doug Lee Maurice
So I will take Oregon fifth. And the thing you're talking about is red zone touchdown percentage allowed. When your opponent gets inside the 20 yard line, what percent of the time do they score touchdowns? So there's. There's sort of two things here that are worth talking about. One is Indiana and Ohio State are really good at this in a way that, that is much better than any other defense in the playoff. Indiana allows red zone touchdowns 27% of the time, and it's basically the way they beat Ohio State. It's how they beat Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game is Ohio State got in the red zone and couldn't score. They failed on a sneak. They missed a field goal. Like, it's this, this is to change the game. And then Ohio State allows red zone touchdowns 33% of the time. And Ohio State and India, I think, I think Ohio State might be like sixth or something in the country right now. I think Indiana's first. But they were, they were like 1, 2 for much of the year. The other six defenses in the playoff allow red zone touchdowns more than half the time. So that's quite a gap that if you're getting inside the 20 against Ohio State, Indiana, you're still only scoring a touchdown about a third of the time. Everybody else, you're scoring more than half. And Oregon, you're scoring a touchdown 70% of the time. And this is like, this sticks out like a sore thumb among almost any stat that you can throw at any of the defenses in this discussion. That. It's just weird. And you looked at it, Bill, and you're like, man, is there like a game or two where this really showed up and that's why their numbers so weird. And then you're like, no, no, it's not a game or two.
- [31:12]
Bill Landis
It's not a game or two. It's, it's, it's really consistent throughout the season. And even like James Madison had a good game in the red zone against Oregon. James Madison in their playoff game got into the red zone six times and scored three touchdowns. Washington before that, got to the red zone twice and scored a touchdown each time. USC Got to the red zone four times and scored three touchdowns. Like there have been some of these, like are games where teams only got there once. But 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 times this year the opponent has had a hundred percent red zone touchdown percentage against. Against Oregon, the only team that didn't score was Oklahoma State, which got there once and didn't score a touchdown and lost 69. 3. James Madison was 50, Washington was 100, USC was 75, Minnesota was 50, Iowa was 67%. So yeah, it's just been. Been a bit of an issue for them all year.
- [32:14]
Doug Lee Maurice
So Oregon, they rebuilt their secondary in the portal again this year like they did last year. But they got some guys at linebacker. They're good up front. Good. I think like good, solid. Can win with this defense. Not change the game defense to the same extent that the top four are. So I think they're solidly fifth and then we know who's eighth. So then it's just a matter bill of. Of who you want to pick six. And then I'll make the pick for seven and then we can talk about them both together.
- [32:42]
Bill Landis
I guess. I. I would take Bama. Bama 6th.
- [32:45]
Doug Lee Maurice
Okay. And then I'll take Georgia 7. Yeah. So they're just a step below Fei Drive to drive metric. Bama's 10, Georgia 16, SP plus Georgia's 5, Bama's 9. Stop rate. Georgia's 21, Bamas 24. Success rate. Bama 16, George is 20. Havoc rate, Bamas 23. Georgia 79 points per game. Georgia's 9th, Bamas 13th. Again, it's. They're more like in the teens and twenties. And a lot of the things statistically as opposed to the ones ahead of them are in the top 10 in a lot of things. Why'd you pick Emma over Georgia?
- [33:27]
Bill Landis
The, the havoc rated thing, again, like, really sticks out. Georgia 79th overall. Georgia 109th in front seven. Havoc rate. And I've been trying to, again, like, I didn't watch Georgia week to week. I'm not gonna pretend to be an expert. I have definitely seen some discourse of like, Georgia's defense starting is starting to figure it out kind of stuff. And like, you know, they, they held Alabama down. Georgia Tech didn't do much against them. I'm not being dismissive of that. But it's not like they suddenly like turned up the heat on those teams. I think they had four tackles for loss against Alabama, so I don't know what to make of their lack of front seven production. It's kind of weird to see that from a Georgia defense. It's something like I really like. I think Georgia is going to beat Ole Miss, obviously, but I want to be like pretty keyed in on that because I think if that is turning the corner and is better, then I think I understand why people are picking Georgia to win the national championship. If you like, account for everything else, but in a lot of ways it does not profile as a typical Georgia defense. And I guess you could say the same thing about Alabama, but there's like the whatever, like the weird sort of statistical spikes in the wrong direction. There's just kind of more of them for Georgia than there are for Alabama. In a lot of ways they're pretty similar, but Alabama does seem to get after it up front in a pretty significant way compared to Georgia.
- [34:54]
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- [35:48]
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Doug Lee Maurice
Good news.
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- [36:22]
Doug Lee Maurice
I'm just going to say when we think Georgia has the fourth or fifth best quarterback and the sixth or seventh best defense. I don't know why people are picking Georgia in the national championship. No offense. So like I just like, like well you know, if they, yeah, maybe they're starting to be good. It's like yeah, I know. But there's a bunch of other teams in the playoff who have been like good the whole time. So congratulations on improvement. But I, I don't, I just don't see it to the same level. Tackles for loss. Indiana has exactly double the number of tackles for loss that Georgia has this season. Indiana has 112. Georgia has 56. Georgia has the fewest in the playoff. It is just incongruous. Bill, what we have, what I think people who don't watch Georgia every day, the. The. The vision they have of the Georgia Bulldogs in their head just does, frankly, does not match the reality of where they are right now. They're still a playoff team. They're there. They are the SEC champs. Kirby Smart on the field, does his job as well as any coach in the country, but they are not. They are not the 2021 Georgia team that had NFL players at all 11 spots on the defense. I mean, it's just. It's just not where it is right now. And I still think people assume it is that way.
- [37:36]
Bill Landis
I. I think they do. And I think they especially assume it about the defensive front. Like, it might be true. They're like, their secondary, I think, is pretty good. They're. They're like back seven, I think can be. Can be, can be pretty nasty. But if you're thinking about the. Especially, like the 21 Georgia national title team and what they had on the D line, like, this is just not even close to the same thing. And it's not that they're like, they're not. They're not bad. They just have, like, have maybe, like, come back to the rest of the sport and learn like, other world. Otherworldly good in that way. But I don't think it's not an offensive juggernaut to me. Again, Like, I don't. I don't want to speak too sternly on it because I don't want to pretend like I've watched them every. Every game. But there is a perception of Georgia. I just think, like, nationally from people who don't watch them often, who just thinks, oh, like Georgia. I'm sure they're great and have one of the better defenses in the country. It's like, I don't know. I don't know that they do. Right?
- [38:28]
Doug Lee Maurice
And then 8th is old miss who. Who really might have a defense that is actually not that good that that would apply. That's the only thing that applies to the only defense you could apply that to that. It's like, I don't. I think they're. I guess they're okay. Ole Miss 48 and FEI. That's the Drive to Drive metric SP plus their 16th stop rate, their 50th success rate. That's the play to play. Do your job. They're 48th havoc rate getting after you. They're 55th. They're 22nd in points allowed. They're okay in tackles for loss, but they give up the most plays of 20 yards or more of any of these eight defenses. The red zone touchdown rates 55, which is the same as Georgia, and it's around the same as bama. This 51, like, they're just. They're just like, okay. And if they're gonna win, they're gonna beat Georgia. They're gonna have to outscore Georgia. Like, they're not gonna stop anybody in this playoff run. If they win, they're gonna have to win 41, 38. Right?
- [39:23]
Bill Landis
Yeah, but just like, they got. It got pretty high scoring when they played in the regular season, right?
- [39:28]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah.
- [39:29]
Bill Landis
And I think, like, some people, I'm sure, like, Ole Miss maybe thinks they should have won this. It was 43, 35 was the final in that game at Georgia. Georgia had 510 yards of offense in that game, and ole miss had 351.
- [39:48]
Doug Lee Maurice
So.
- [39:48]
Bill Landis
Yeah, I don't know. They, like, didn't two lane just threw for like 300 something yards on Ole Miss, right? Like. Yeah. I don't. Prince. Well, Uman Miellen is that. They say it is a good. Is a good guy up front for Ole Miss, but I don't know what else that defense really has besides him.
- [40:04]
Doug Lee Maurice
And it's one of those, again, where Ole Miss has. Has succeeded, I think, in outscoring teams, but they haven't played a defense like Ohio State, Texas Tech, Indiana or Oregon or Miami. Like, honestly, it's. And. And I think. And you would be like, what do you mean? They're in the sec and it's like. I don't know what to tell you, bro. I just. I'm sorry, but. But the SEC is not the land of. Of the best defenses this year. And it used to be, but it's not. And that's not. That's not mean putting on a hat and being like a crazy northern homer. That's just. I don't. I don't know what to say. So I would be. And here we are. God, I. How I would love to see Ole Miss against one of these five top defenses in the playoff. But they got a G6 team in the first round, and now they're getting Georgia. How'd they get that?
- [41:01]
Bill Landis
Yeah.
- [41:02]
Doug Lee Maurice
God, they're so lucky they get to play Georgia.
- [41:04]
Bill Landis
God, what a pass. Hey, it's at home. It's in New Orleans. It's a home game.
- [41:07]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. Or no, that Was.
- [41:08]
Bill Landis
That was for Tulane. Never mind. But yeah, yeah, like, I'll go.
- [41:13]
Doug Lee Maurice
They're going to a party at Lane's house.
- [41:14]
Bill Landis
That's true.
- [41:15]
Doug Lee Maurice
New digs.
- [41:16]
Bill Landis
I think he'll be there. He'll show up, right? He hasn't ended on the show up to that.
- [41:19]
Doug Lee Maurice
He can't stay away.
- [41:20]
Bill Landis
Yeah. Yeah.
- [41:21]
Doug Lee Maurice
He's gonna get in a fight with a security guard trying to get on the sideline. Do you know who I am? He's gonna be wearing like, you know, there was back in the day, like, the first bowl game I ever covered. It was. I always get it confused. It's AJ Hawks girlfriend who became his wife and Brady Quinn's sister who was wearing a split Notre Dame Ohio State jersey at the bowl game. Lane Kiffin's gonna be walking the sideline at the Sugar bowl in a split LSU Ole Miss jersey. But I, I think we're gonna get old. Like, this is the exact example. I think we're gonna get old. Miss out of the playoff. I. I don't know. I don't think it's impossible that they beat Georgia, but we're just gonna be.
- [42:00]
Bill Landis
The first game one. I don't think so.
- [42:02]
Doug Lee Maurice
No. I don't think it's impossible. But it's like we, we just might get out of this season being like, Ole Miss. Oh, man, that offense was great. And it's like. Yeah, but they never, like, we never saw it. We never saw Bryant Haynes or Matt Patricia or like, what this Texas Tech or these Miami defenses could unleash on you. We never saw Ole Miss have to deal with that. What Mike. That have looked like. I think we might get out of the season without figuring it out. I wish we had a way to do it. So. Okay. Texas Tech, number one in our defense draft, very close with Ohio State. Ohio State 2, Indiana 3, Miami 4. Probably a line there. Oregon 5, Bama 6, Georgia 7, Ole Miss 8. And again, if you're noting by conference, that's the three SEC teams at the bottom. Thanks to you guys for being here. Bill and I will be at the Cotton bowl to cover Ohio State Miami in person. We will be flying down there on December 28th. We'll have coverage starting from Dallas as soon as we can get our microphones plugged in. And we'll. We'll make picks for all four of these games here on this YouTube and podcast channel, just like we did last weekend for those. For, uh, four first round games. And, uh, we're just grateful to be hanging out talking ball, Bill.
- [43:18]
Bill Landis
We sure are. Yeah. Very much looking forward to these quarterfinals, and they're gonna be really good.
- [43:23]
Doug Lee Maurice
Yeah. All right. Thanks again to you guys for being here. Substack, Bill and Doug osu.substack.com like, subscribe, tell a friend for now, he's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Lee Maurice, and that was the Bill and Doug show.
- [43:40]
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- [43:47]
Doug Lee Maurice
Wood thrush, three o'.
- [43:48]
Bill Landis
Clock.
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Doug Lee Maurice
How about waterproof boots, size 10?
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Doug Lee Maurice
Really? Who knew? Okay, was that you or the birds?
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- [44:15]
Doug Lee Maurice
After almost four years of treatments, I was finally cancer free. My mom's like, where do you want to go to celebrate? I'm like, let's go somewhere tropical. And then pilot hopped on the intercom and started talking about me. And I was like, what is going on here? My wife beat cancer, too, and I wanted to celebrate his special moment.
- [44:30]
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- [44:34]
Doug Lee Maurice
We all signed a card. I was smiling ear to ear.
- [44:37]
Bill Landis
Best flight ever for sure.
- [44:39]
Doug Lee Maurice
That's how good leads the way.