Ohio State vs. Illinois Big Game Breakdown: Picks and preview for Buckeyes at Illini

Summary

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The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State vs. Illinois Big Game Breakdown

Podcast: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Episode Title: Ohio State vs. Illinois Big Game Breakdown: Picks and preview for Buckeyes at Illini
Date: October 9, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis
Theme: Deep dive into the matchup between the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes and the Illinois Fighting Illini, focusing on what to expect in all key phases, betting lines, personnel, and strategies.

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Episode Overview

This episode delivers a comprehensive preview of the upcoming Ohio State vs. Illinois showdown, dissecting strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball, coaching tendencies, and what fans should expect from a noon kickoff in Champaign. Doug and Bill employ their decades of coverage experience to offer sharp, witty insight for fans looking for more than the surface narrative.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Vegas Odds & Initial Impressions

• Spread/Total: Ohio State favored by 14, over/under at 49.5.
• Doug expected a higher line, closer to three touchdowns. (00:36)
• The spread reflects skepticism about Illinois' record; their 5-1 mark masks many close calls and lucky breaks.

2. Illinois' 5-1 Record: Smoke & Mirrors?

• Illinois has "hung on for dear life" (01:20) in several games; could easily be 2-4.
  • Barely beat Duke after benefiting from turnovers.
  • Survived USC on a last-second field goal.
  • Outplayed by Purdue despite the win, with fluky turnovers and missed chances.
• Doug: "Their play on the field has not looked like a team that's five and one." (03:08)

3. Brett Bielema's X-Factor

• Illinois has not beaten Ohio State since Juice Williams in 2007.
• Bielema is known for "making it weird": slow defensive substitutions to disrupt rhythm, clock control, trick plays, and edge-of-whistle tactics. (08:31)
  • Bill: “There will be at least one moment on Saturday where Ohio State fans are ready to punch their TVs because of it.” (09:31)
• Expect special teams trickery and tempo manipulation.

4. Historical & Situational Context

• Ohio State hasn't played in Champaign since 2015.
• Illinois is 2-8 at home as a host to the #1 team nationally, mostly against Ohio State. (07:25)
• Bielema inspires his team with past upsets, referencing his 2010 Wisconsin win over No. 1 Ohio State.

5. Illinois Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

Quarterback Play: The Luke Altmeyer Effect

• Altmeyer: Exceptionally experienced (30th start upcoming) and resilient; six game-winning drives since 2023. (15:26)
  • Hosts agree he’s underrated, would make Penn State a top contender, and is the reason Illinois isn’t 2-4.
  • Doug (on QBs): “All of Illinois's problems are because of other things that are falling apart around him.” (16:54)
• Altmeyer's Strengths:
  • RPO-heavy; most throws short/intermediate middle.
  • No interceptions in 100+ dropbacks this year. (20:39)
  • Some mobility, more so than previous Ohio State opponents.
• Major Weakness: Offensive line is porous:
  • 19 sacks allowed (second-most among Power 4).
  • Right side and center health are issues. (30:42)

Rushing Attack: Varying Styles, Little Production

• Three-back committee: Caden Fagan (huge, but not explosive), Khalil Valentine (wiggle, not much work), Aiden Lawfree (best after contact, banged up). (21:25)
• Production inconsistent, struggling against good defenses; not likely built to pound Ohio State. (24:39)

Receiving Threats: Spotlight on Hank Beatty

• Beatty is a versatile, dangerous slot (YAC monster, punt return TD, trick play guy).
• Receivers will test OSU's slot coverage; expect zone schemes to gunk up middle.

Pace and Possession Game

• Both teams play slow (Illinois 102nd, OSU 136th in pace).
• Bill: "I think it's an under game ... I don't think Brett Bielema is going to coach it normally." Expect fewer possessions, clock control, “single-wing, two-QB packages, weird stuff.” (29:51)
• Illinois’ only hope: shorten the game, minimize OSU’s possessions, hope for weirdness.

Offensive Line as the Achilles Heel

• Left side is adequate—right side and center are liabilities.
• OSU’s interior rush (Kaden Curry, Arvel Reese) expected to feast.
• Doug: “If Illinois is going to try to drop back and throw the ball a lot against Ohio State ... I think you'll see what happened against Indiana when Altmeyer got sacked seven times.” (31:36)

6. Ohio State Offense vs. Illinois Defense

Illinois Defense: A Far Cry from Past Years

• Loss of star safety Xavier Scott (their “Caleb Downs”) is massive.
• Back 7 is fundamentally unsound: missed tackles, blown assignments, bad angles.
• Doug: "I was stunned ... like guys run free." (44:18)
• "Poorly coached defense"—Aaron Henry hasn't elevated the unit; still inconsistent and mistake-prone. (44:30)
• Only stopping teams via turnovers; otherwise, can't get off the field or stop third downs.

Statistical Indicators of Weakness

• 170 YAC/game allowed to Power 4 opponents; OSU allows 65. (48:31)
• Allowed 62 pass plays 10+ yards in 6 games (OSU 21 in 5).
• 43.4% conversion rate given up on third downs, 75th stop rate nationally. (49:48)
• Defensive “playmakers” almost nonexistent.

Pass Rush: Gabe Akis is Good, but Overmatched

• Illinois has 15 sacks (inflated by weak opponents); little pressure on good teams.
• OSU O-line is “locked in and connected,” unlikely to lose 1-on-1s or miss blitz pickups.
• Julian Sayin, the best Power 4 QB vs. the blitz (91.8 PFF, 79% completions, 8-1 TD-INT). (52:22)

Gameplan vs. Sayin

• Defensive coordinators try to make OSU dink and dunk, force red zone efficiency.
• Blitzing Sayin is dangerous; he'll “handle it together” with the OL. (53:35)
• Doug: “I don't think Illinois is going to be able to generate a pass rush without blitzing and then I don't think they're going to be able to cover.” (54:39)

Run Game: Reliable, Not Explosive by Design

• OSU’s Bo Jackson, James Peoples, CJ Donaldson form a reliable committee.
• RPOs and short passes supplement the run game explosiveness.
• Expect more YAC than breakaway runs; big plays may result from Illinois tackling woes. (56:28)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• "I actually think Illinois is worse than [their record]... Ohio State, actually, I think they're better than that." — Bill Landis (05:43)
• On Bielema's antics: "There will be at least one moment on Saturday where Ohio State fans are ready to punch their TVs because of it." — Bill (09:31)
• "Not every trick play pass to a quarterback is Philly Special." — Doug, in a tongue-in-cheek segment about playcalling nomenclature (10:33)
• "All of Illinois's problems are because of other things that are falling apart around him [Altmeyer]." — Doug (16:54)
• "Illinois's offensive line also seems to have no idea how to diagnose things... that guy just runs free." — Doug (37:09)
• "I expect Ohio State to throw it a decent amount... [but] I think it's a yards after the catch game." — Bill (55:18)
• "I was stunned ... like guys run free." — Doug, on the Illinois defense’s meltdown vs. Purdue (44:18)
• "[OSU is] averaging 61 plays per game. But yards per play is the same." — Bill, on why efficiency, not volume, is the story (61:19)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Vegas odds and opening take: 00:00–01:15
• Illinois’ close shaves/should be 2-4: 01:20–04:49
• Bielema's “make it weird” factor: 08:20–10:48
• Illinois offense, Altmeyer breakdown: 15:02–18:45
• OSU defense vs. Illinois OL woes: 30:42–32:45 and 35:02–37:49
• Illinois Defensive failings/Back seven woes: 41:35–45:26
• OSU pass game, Julian Sayin and blitz handling: 52:22–54:40
• OSU run game expectations: 56:05–57:10
• Game predictions/score picks: 57:22–59:00
• Closing analysis (play count/efficiency): 61:19–62:26

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Hosts’ Picks & Game Outlook

• Score Predictions:
  • Doug: Ohio State 35, Illinois 10 (57:31)
  • Bill: Ohio State 35, Illinois 9 (57:43)
• Consensus: Ohio State to handle business with methodical, efficient offense. Under on 49.5 total points.
• Key to the game: Illinois must create “weirdness”—with trick plays, clock control, and Bielema’s sideline gamesmanship. Otherwise, their OL and defensive back seven will be overwhelmed by Ohio State's talent and preparation.

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Final Takeaways

• Expect a slow-paced, low-possession contest, shaped by Illinois' desperation for chaos, but ultimately dictated by Ohio State's physical advantages and efficiency on both sides.
• The game likely remains methodical until one team forces turnovers or breaks a big play after a tackling lapse.
• OSU fans shouldn’t expect a blowout but should recognize the chance for “boring dominance” that quietly throttles the Illini.
• Watch for: Trick plays early from Illinois, odd substitution patterns, and a potential breakout for OSU receivers after the catch.
• Bill: "This has a chance to be a supremely efficient game from the Ohio State offense that will make Brian Hartline and Ryan Day very happy." (62:13)

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For more, catch the postgame show live on YouTube and follow Ohio State coverage at billanddugosu.substack.com.

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Transcript

[Bill Landis]

Foreign welcome back to the Bill and Doug show. Ohio State vs. Illinois picks and preview here today. Kind of a big game breakdown. We'll look at the Illini and the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball. Doug Lay, Maurice, Bill Landis national picks on Friday. Ohio State picks on this show. Bill Landis 14 point spread over under is 49 and a half 14 points. Does that say seem right to you for Ohio State to be favored by two touchdowns on the road at noon on Saturday?

[Doug Les Maurice]

It's actually a little, it's a little less than I would have guessed and I think, I think it opened slightly higher than than that. That's what it was on Thursday morning. Like the Washington game was. It was a single digit spread. But that kind of made sense to me just based off the environment and like it being Julian Saying's first, first road game, passing that test and now going to play what's probably a better team but and not nearly the same kind of environment. And obviously the last time Indiana played a team that was in the top 10 and got its doors blown off, I thought this would be more like a three touchdown kind of spread than what it is right now.

[Bill Landis]

The hard thing about this is.

[Doug Les Maurice]

And.

[Bill Landis]

I do want one, one thing that I do think matters here is that this is Illinois seventh straight game. They haven't had a buy yet. Illinois is 5 and 1. Should Illinois be 2 and 4? They kind of got outplayed at Duke, but Duke turned the ball over a ton. And then credit to Illinois, they pulled away in the second half but they were hanging on for dear life early in that. They won 45 19, but that's not a 4519 game. And Kurt Signetti, the Indiana coach after Illinois destroyed, after Indiana destroyed Illinois for Illinois's only loss said like did you watch the Duke game? We knew we'd be able to get pressure on them because Illinois's offensive line was terrible against Duke. So they could have lost duke. They lost 6310 to Indiana. They beat USC 3432 in a game that they controlled the whole time, then completely fell apart at the end. USC drove for the go ahead score and then Luke Altmeyer led Illinois down to kick a game winning field goal. The last play of the game. They certainly could have lost that. And then Purdue last week, that was a weird line there that Purdue is only like a 10 point underdog to Illinois that was 43 27. But there's a success rate graphic from Parker Fleming that we look at every week and like play to play. Who was Better at doing their job. Purdue was much better than Illinois in that game, right?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah. Purdue had the better success rate. And there was. I was just watching that game. Something happened that I wanted to make note of and I can't remember. I think it was. It was like a third quarter, like still a fairly close game, and.

[Bill Landis]

I.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Think Purdue had like a wonky turnover or something like that.

[Bill Landis]

Purdue fumbled a punt. Purdue fumbled a punt. Yeah, it was like super crucial and set up Illinois, like about the 10 yard line.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yes, that's what it was. The other thing about the USC game, so I watched the USC game in its entirety and I kind of just watched the highlights of the Purdue game. Illinois also fumbled twice going into the end zone in that game. Yes. Yes, they did. That could have been a little. A little different there too. But should they be 2 and 4? I. I think they've probably played like a team that should be two and four. Yeah, I mean, you want to give them credit for pulling out some of the games they did. And I think it starts with Luke Altmeyer. But yeah, they have. Their. Their play on the field has not looked like a team that's five and one.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, it's really hard. And again, like, it's one of the. So like Duke turned the ball over, so that helped Illinois, but then Illinois turned the ball over but still managed to win against usc. And then Purdue literally had a play. Purdue. Purdue had two defensive backs run into each other and conk their heads together like coconuts. And it turned into like an Illinois 60 yard. There was a play where like early in that game, Illinois, like Purdue guys just made a catch in the middle of the field, just going down to the ground. And an Illinois defender at the last second punched the ball out 4 inches before the Purdue guy was down. So it was kind of like a. It was a good defensive play, but it was kind of like, man, that was a weird turnover. And then the next play they threw a 65 yard touchdown pass because literally two Purdue defensive backs ran into each other and left the guy wide open. Purdue made a ton of mistakes, but then also Illinois made a ton of mistakes. And like Purdue was the worst team in the Big Ten last year. Played Illinois basically to a draw a year ago, and then this year kind of played Illinois to a draw again. When Illinois was a team coming into the year that I picked to make the playoff and Purdue is completely rebuilding and they looked equal last week.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, it was weird because I actually thought the USC game, if you take some of the, like the wonkiness out of it was like a fairly well played game for Illinois, especially some of the things that had really, like, kind of hindered it against Duke in Indiana, which is. Which is to say, like, offensive line play. Yes. Was not as much of an issue against usc, but then like, they get to the Purdue game and all of a sudden, like, Purdue's getting pressure on them again. So it's like, I don't know, was like the USC game like an outlier for a team that is like, not. They're not bad, but they. And they're like, banged up too, which I think is part of it. But I guess, like, suffice to say, like, they've not looked, I think, really at all like the team that we kind of thought they would be coming into the season, which is like a potential playoff contender. But I do think they're tricky and they're at home. And then there's like the Brett Bielema factor, and he usually coaches the team pretty well in games like this. So there's. There's still a lot to get into, too.

[Bill Landis]

This is so interesting. And there's like a defensive point I want to make about this, But Illinois is 5 and 1, but kind of hanging on for dear life in a lot of ways. And Ohio State is 5. 0. And we've talked about this a lot from a scoreboard watching standpoint, maybe not as dominant as people think. Illinois. Illinois is worse than a five and one team that you would glance at, I think. Right. Like, if you glance at Illinois, I actually think they're worse than that. If you glance at Ohio State, I actually think they're better than that. But they're kind of like. Like Ohio State's playing a certain kind of way, and it sort of makes you get lulled to sleep and not realize how good they are. And Illinois is playing a certain kind of way that makes you think, like, I don't know about these guys. And they're like, oh, my God, I can't believe they're 5 and 1. It's practically a miracle. You did Illinois offense versus Ohio State defense, correct?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yes.

[Bill Landis]

Okay. It's always one of those. It's like, well, because I did Ohio State offense vs. Illinois defense, so I hope I didn't get our wires crossed. Just so. So real quick. Ohio State's 19 straight last win for Illinois was 2007 when Juice Williams came into Ohio Stadium and had that huge upset, like, knocked Ohio State out of the national title picture for the moment. And then they got back into it. Ohio State played for the national title. That was the last time Illinois won the. They haven't played at all since 2017 because just the way the breakdown of like east, west and. And the way things used to be and then they reshuffled it and they were supposed to play in 2020. It got canceled by Covid this is pretty weird. So 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24. That's seven years of not playing each other. That is weird.

[Doug Les Maurice]

It is weird. And Ohio State hasn't been in champagne since 2015. Very strange. There's some other stuff here that I came across like just digging up. Well I guess how much I'm here where we're talking about like records and trends and stuff. Illinois has played the number one team at home 10 times. It's two and eight. Okay. It is two and eight. Beat Michigan State in 1956 and beat Ohio State in 1950. And oh, most of those games are against Ohio State. Illinois is one in five at home against Ohio State when the Buckeyes are the number one team in the country that is came across that Jonathan Coon one on Twitter was who looked that up. The last two times Ohio State played Illinois as the number one team were 2006 and 2007 and Ohio State did not cover either time. One of them was an outright loss and the other game they didn't cover.

[Bill Landis]

I'm trying to remember. I think 2006 was like the goofiest game that dominant Ohio State team played all year. 17 to 10.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Like a weird like. Well so it can be weird over there. It can be weird over there for sure. And Brett Bielema's goal and we can. Let's actually let's talk about Bielema now.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Sure.

[Bill Landis]

Bilama's goal is to make it weird. And one of the things that a thousand percent is going to happen in this game is that that Ohio State's going to substitute offensively and then Illinois is going to substitute defensively by having guys crawl off the field. And it is going to drive Ohio State fans crazy. I would pick at least one delay of game penalty or force for Ohio State because of it. Ryan Day. You're going to see Ryan Day yelling either just about not necessarily even at Brett Bilama, but at the refs. Because is like is he. Is he pushing it too far with the rules? Because you're supposed to let the defense substitute if the offense substitutes. But Bilema will push it to the edge. He wants to slow the game down. He wants to throw off offenses any way he can. He coaches to the. At the edge of the whistle, right? Like, guys play to that. B coaches to that. And there will be at least one moment on Saturday where Ohio State fans are ready to punch their TVs because of it.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I'm glad you mentioned it because I have it in my notes, too. I have like a. I have a list of like three things, kind of like offense and defense to like, watch out for in this game. One of them is. One of them is Illinois substituting slow to throw off Ohio State's rhythm. Another is it like. And maybe we can talk more in depth about it, but Illinois is like pretty good on special teams and trick plays.

[Bill Landis]

Okay.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Last year against Nebraska, Illinois threw a touchdown to an offensive lineman in like a pretty close game. And then this year against usc, I believe on its opening drive against usc, it tried to throw a half back pass, but like it wasn't open. And then two plays later threw a double reverse pass to Luke Almayer. Touchdown. So, like, they're gonna come to the table with some trick plays.

[Bill Landis]

Philly Special. Wasn't that Philly Special?

[Doug Les Maurice]

No, it wasn't. See, I get mad about this. It wasn't.

[Bill Landis]

Didn't the announcer say it was Philly Special? Okay.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Called it Philly Special, but it was not.

[Bill Landis]

Joel.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yes.

[Bill Landis]

That's. Let's start a war about this. What are we doing? This is your battle.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Not every trick play pass to a quarterback is Philly Special.

[Bill Landis]

This is a scandal. Joel Clapp took Philly special's name in vain. We can't live with this.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah. Next time I see him, I'll tell him he's wrong.

[Bill Landis]

Philly Billy doesn't like when you misuse Philly Special. Joel Clack.

[Doug Les Maurice]

That's right.

[Bill Landis]

So watch it or Landis is coming for you and he's gonna have a little French vanilla right behind him.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Bring it.

[Bill Landis]

A little bit of this. That'd be a good wet. We need to get in more wars, don't you think?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yes, but. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Let's call people out.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Did you see, by the way, while I was watching Brett Bielma's press conference and he said that he talked to this Illinois team in the off season about when he was the coach at Wisconsin in 2010 and they beat number one, Ohio State.

[Bill Landis]

Oh, okay, that's interesting. I think there's three things at play there. One is Camp Randall practically shook itself down to its foundation that night. So you've got to work the huge home field advantage. Number two is. You said Illinois is good at special teams. Wisconsin ran the opening kickback for a Touc touchdown in that game. And three is right. Wisconsin at J.J. watt.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, I think that's right. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

So all you gotta do is do that, run the opening kickoff back because you're good at special teams, have one of the greatest home field advantages in college football and have an all time like have like an NFL hall of Famer playing defense for you and going crazy. Yeah, that was your J.J. watt had seven sacks. He was a junior. Yeah. So anyway, so but like maybe Gabe Akas can be that. So that's like, you know, we're always looking for these formulas. You go back and how to do it. It's like special teams, home field advantage and a dominant defensive player. It's not a bad plan.

[Doug Les Maurice]

It's a pretty good recipe and I'm just gonna say it. Luke Altmeyer better than Scott Tolzine.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. Wow. So you're going after Joel Klatt and the Tolzine family so far. Wow. Throwing it down.

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[Bill Landis]

I have a question for you. I want to start with your side of the ball but I want to start with Illinois offense, Ohio State defense with this question. If Luke Altmire was Penn State's quarterback, would Penn State be undefeated?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yes.

[Bill Landis]

Okay, that's what I think too. But so like to put that is what Luke Altmeyer is doing. And honestly if Drew Aller was Illinois's quarterback, Illinois might be 2 and 4, like not joking.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Luke Altmeyer, I believe it's since 2023, since he took over. The starter at Illinois has six game winning drives with that in the last minute of the fourth quarter which is the most of any quarterback in that time.

[Bill Landis]

Spanish Illinois looked like it was going to.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Some of them was going to like Purdue, but like accounts.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, Illinois looked like it was going to lose to Duke by 30. And Luke Altmeyer, Brett Bielema with weird substitutions and Luke Altmeyer by making throws that he had no right to make, refused to let Illinois lose that game. And then after the defense gave it up for Illinois against usc, Luke Altmeyer let him down the field and they kicked a game winning field goal the last play of the game. So those are at least two losses that honestly for real, I think they might be three and three if you traded Drew Aller and Luke Altmeyer. So like that's just, that's just to tell Ohio State fans that's what we're talking about because you know there's such a Luke Altmeyer drew out or kid clubbing to me were like the three third year starting quarterbacks at their actual schools because Luke Altmeyer is a transfer but he's been the starting quarterback at Illinois for now the third season that I thought gave those teams an edge coming into this year and Clemson and Penn State, it hasn't been true. Clubnik and Aller have not played that way. And you've seen the results for Clemson and Penn State. Altmire has, I think Altmire has lived up to like hey, third year starting quarterback. This is what it's supposed to look like. All of Illinois's problems are because of other things that are falling apart around him. But how good do you think Luke Altmeyer is?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, he's he's really good and he's taking a step forward. The thing that's like, most interesting to me, I think, about him in this matchup is that look at the other power four teams that Ohio State has played in their quarterbacks. Arch Manning, Demon Williams, Jr Drake, Lindsay came into this season with a combined force, four starts in their careers. Saturday will be Luke Altmeyer's 30th start. Okay. And that. And like Ryan Day said on Wednesday night that that matters. He said, as a quote from Ryan Day, those experienced guys who have seen it before, there's a lot that they can recall. And then he said later that he's won some big games before. So, like, I think they respect his experience. I think they respect the idea that there's probably not much they can do to him that he hasn't seen before. And I think that represents or presents an interesting situation for Ohio State's defense where, like this, the skies have been excellent. Clearly, all of these young quarterbacks that Ohio State has played have been confused by what they're seeing. And that's not to say they can't confuse Luke Altmeyer, because I think they probably can and will, but I don't know that they can do it to the degree that they did those other young, young quarterbacks. So that'll be a pretty fun chess match. I think it's. And it's like, it's not the chess match between the offensive coordinator and the defensive coordinator, per se. It's like the chess match between defensive coordinate Patricia and a really experienced quarterback has just kind of seen it all. So I'm wondering, like, what. I don't know that Ohio State has been, like, saving things for this game necessarily. But with that in mind, I, I could see Ohio State trying to do some newer things in this game. Some stuff maybe it hasn't done quite yet because I do think overall, especially with the way that Texas's offense has played since Ohio State played it, it's either. It's either this offense or, like, Washington's office looks like the best offensive Ohio State I've seen thus far.

[Bill Landis]

Okay.

[Doug Les Maurice]

But when you factor in how well the quarterback is playing for Illinois, I think you can make the argument it's Illinois because they also have, like, more balance at receiver and they have, like, a stable of running backs, offensive line situations that. Great, we can talk about that. But I, I just, I just mentioned all that. To say, like, this is, you know, it's not an offensive juggernaut that Ohio sits about the face, but. But I Do think it's a, it's an offense with a quarterback who is incredibly experienced. And not only experienced, like experience in this system. He like 29 of his 30 starts are in this offensive system with this team. He and the Roast Mary Lenny, I think like have a pretty good connection on what they want to do. And, and Luke Altmeyer can like operate the offense. He can make like, he can make just about every throw you would want a quarterback to make. He does throw a lot of RPOs. Yep. And, and a lot of those RPOs, like in the middle of the field, if you look like just like percentages of where he throws the ball. The highest percentages are like short middle, intermediate middle. And that for me, like I, I recall a little bit of what we saw Caleb Downs do last year, especially like against Oregon where he's just like parked in the middle of the field and Dylan Gabriel's like, well, I'd love to throw the ball over the middle of the field, but I can't because Caleb Downs is there. So that's a weapon for Ohio State clearly here I think like what they do with Downs. How much you spy? Because Luke Altmeyer can run a little bit with Arvel Reese I think will be interesting. He's not the run threat of like the Mon Williams, but he's certainly more of a run threat than Ohio State saw last week against Minnesota and probably more of a run fat than Arch Manning was in that first game. So there, there are some things for Ohio State to kind of just like be. Be on its stuff. Like I, I think it is if you're, if you're sloppy, like in any way or just like not really on point. I do think Luke got. Meyer is a quarterback that can make you pay for it.

[Bill Landis]

12 touchdowns, no picks this year for Luke Altmeyer.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, he is. I looked this up of all. What is it there? Oh, there are six FBS quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs and no interceptions, and he's one of them. And I think there's only two of those guys in the past four.

[Bill Landis]

Okay, so that's pretty good. Let's save the Illinois offensive line for last because that way we can go through like the things that Illinois has a chance to do offensively. And then at the end you could be like, but none of them will happen because Ohio State's going to destroy their offensive line. But anyway, let's pretend for five minutes. Let's start in the backfield. Aiden and Kaden like the Aiden and Caden show. I liked I've always liked the Aiden and Caden show. Right. And then. But also they have Aiden Loughrey actually is not doing as much this year. Khalil Valentine is part of it too, but like kind of three backs, right?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah. Kaden Fagan, Khalil Valentine, Aiden Lawfrey, Law Free has only played in three games this year. He did not play last week. I think he's dealing with like an ankle thing. Ankle or anything. But Brett Bielema said they held him out as a bit of a precaution last week. They think he'll play this week but they're not entirely sure if he's going to be 100 or like how much of an impact he can have. But it sounds like they do plan on using all three backs, different styles. Caden Fagan is six three, 255 pounds. Like that is a big old. You've compared him to Derrick Henry. I don't even like yeah, he's bigger than Derek Henry. I think he's not as good as Derek Henry, but he's bigger than him. Valentine is like more of a traditional built running back. He's got more wiggle to him. I think it'd be pretty deadly in space after the catch. Feeling will get there. Law Free is like their best guy in terms of yards after contact, but he also has their fewest carries right now. So they want to run the ball. They actually their rushing percentage is a little lower than I thought it would be. It's like 54, which is about the same as Ohio State's. But like a lot of what they do offensively is predicated on running the ball because like I said, they want to run a lot of run pass options and a lot of play action with Luke Altmeyer. So and, and to your point earlier, they'll want to shorten the game. They play slow anyway, but they'll, they'll want to shorten the game here. So I'd imagine they're going to try to establish the run somewhat. They're also, you know, we'll talk offensive line. They're, they're probably better run blocking than they are pass protecting. But Illinois I don't think has probably, I would say, I would assume anyway they've not run the ball the way they want to. Less than 3 yards per carry against Duke, less than 3 yards per carry against Purdue and less than 1 yard per carry against Indiana. Sacks factoring into a lot of those numbers.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I, I don't like. I almost think the run game should be a little bit better. Kaden Fake as much as I like him, had 10 carries for 16 yards against Purdue last week.

[Doug Les Maurice]

He just needs like, if he's not gonna, he can run over someone maybe, but he's not gonna run away from people. So yeah, he needs a nice, nice hole to run through.

[Bill Landis]

People made it so it's the same guys they had last year in the backfield. They had a good year last year, as people know, early 10 win team. But they had like four running backs last year. They lost Josh McCray because he transferred to Georgia and everybody said, oh, baby. Josh McRae at Georgia, Josh McCray at Georgia has 21 carries for 50 yards. Josh McRae at Georgia, 21 for 50 for 55, 0. So and so, so he was like, so they had four guys last year, one left, went to Georgia to become like Georgia's number two back. And he's having a terrible year. So I'm not even sure what that means except that Georgia can cram it. So they do have like a three headed, three headed thing in the backfield. I think they'll ride the hot hand a little bit if, if that happens to happen with somebody. So they have options there. They don't, they don't have anybody as good as Bo Jackson, but they have a couple options there. I don't know that they're a consistent run game, but I can see them here and there being. I think they're like a little bit of a threat there, but I also don't think they're gonna pound the ball against. There's a point I want to make. I don't think they're built to necessarily pound the ball against Ohio State all day.

[Doug Les Maurice]

No, I don't think so either. They ran it well against usc, but I just, I just kind of felt like USC was getting out physical on both sides of the ball that, that entire game they got kind of like an angry Illinois team in. Illinois pushed him around a little bit, but that has not shown up really in like any of Illinois's other games.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. So can I let, let, let me ask you if this is so in 2021 in Brett Bielema's first season, Illinois beat Penn State 20 to 18 in nine overtimes.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Right.

[Bill Landis]

And they just were lining up with 14 offensive linemen on the field. They ran the ball 67 times in that game. They threw it 21 times. They were eight of 21. And they were doing like, I think they might have had like a 30 play touchdown drive or something. I would not be completely dumbfounded if Brett Bielema came Out and like threw their whole offense away and ran single wing and tried to get 3.3 yards per carry, go for it on every fourth down and try to have a 12 minute 26 play drive in the first quarter. Like, I, I think you're just prepared for that because he's gonna throw everything at it and he knows mano a mano they're not gonna win, so he's got to get funky. And this team can't pass block, which we'll get to. So I'm just throwing that out there. I'm not predicting it, but I'm throwing it out.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I, I don't know that I'd be. I, I do think this could be a game. Like, yeah, Brett B. Just throws like every idea he has against the wall, see if something sticks and they can't shock the world. I mean that plan you laid out would drastically negate the impact of like their two best offensive players. Who are Luke and Hank Beatty, the receiver who we'll talk about. But in the name of shortening the game and not giving Ohio State the ball and at the very least like trying something that no one has tried against it's Ohio State defense yet. Maybe, maybe I don't, I don't think I'd be terribly surprised by. And Luke Altmeyer, as we mentioned, like, he can, he's got 85 designed rushing yards. Like he can be a part of that. If you wanted to do that, it would be similar to. Was that 2019 when Ohio State played at Nebraska and then like on Nebraska's like third drive, it's just started playing option football, like march down the field and then that's. Didn't try it again. Like maybe, maybe Illinois has something like that up its sleeve for this game. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Okay, so just be prepared. Hank Beatty, really good receiver. If they try to throw it like a normal offense, who are they throwing it to?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, Beatty's number one guy. The tight ends like target wise have not been a huge factor. The top five guys and targets are all receivers led by Hank Beatty. I think they have like a pretty nice receiver core. Beatty is the best. He's a slot guy. Colin Dixon's pretty good. Hudson Clement, transfer from West Virginia is pretty good. Justin Bowick is like a big dude, is 6, 4. He's third or he's fourth in targets, but he actually has the most receiving touchdowns. He has four of them. But Beatty's the guy that I think you have to stop. And you know, Ohio State played, I think, a pretty nice slot receiver against Texas With Parker Livingstone. He scored a touchdown against Ohio State late in that game. They played another pretty good one against Ohio. Chase, something, his last name is, is escaping me. He scored a touchdown in that game. Was it Hendrix? Hendrix. Hendrix, yeah. He scored a touchdown in that game. So it'll be, it'll be like a little bit of a spotlight, I think, for Lorenzo Stiles Jr. Dealing with Hank Beatty, I don't know. Ohio State played a bunch of man last week against Minnesota. It has primarily been a zone team. I would imagine we'll see them kind of go back to playing zone in, in this game, if anything, to like try to gunk up the middle of the field against some of those RPOs.

[Bill Landis]

Okay.

[Doug Les Maurice]

But yeah, Beatty, Beatty's good. He's. He's really good after the catch. He's second in the power four and yards after the catch. He's dangerous as return man. He's got a punt return touchdown. He's got a rushing touchdown. He's got a couple of receiving touchdowns. He's thrown a touchdown pass. Like there's, there's a lot to like with him. He's a, he's a pretty solid player. I think he's a fourth or fifth year guy. He's been in the program for a while. Yeah, I think he's, he's probably playing the best of any receiver Ohio State's played so far this year. I think we talked a lot about Denzel Boston and he's a very good player. Different kind of player. But if you look at just like body of work this season, Hank Beatty's been one of the better receivers in the country.

[Bill Landis]

All right, before we get to the offensive line, what's this? The, the. You have a pace stat for Illinois offensively, how slow they play?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, they are 102nd in the country just in like pace of play, which is like seconds per play and 109th in place per game. 64.4.

[Bill Landis]

Okay. And those are all things where like, oh, Howie, State's like literally at the bottom of things like that, right?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Oh, yes. Ohio State is 136th in pace of play and 132nd in place per game.

[Bill Landis]

Do you think Illinois could come out and not snap the ball until there's one second on the play clock for the whole first half?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yes. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

I think it's an under game. I think it's. I, I just, I don't think Brett Bielema is going to coach it normally. I don't think he's going to coach it normally. I think they're gonna, they're gonna work the clock. I think they're gonna have three running backs and no quarterback in the backfield on some play. I think they're gonna run some single wing stuff. I think they might put two quarterbacks in the game. They're like, I just, I, I just think he knows the deal. This is, this is it for them and he doesn't care if they win. Weird. He's just, he will do anything it takes because they're a little desperate and he knows they're even not as good as their record shows. And then the other part of this is the number one thing that we thought about, their number one thing we thought about Illinois coming in was like they had their whole offensive line back, but even though they were back, they had to get better. And they're not better. They're.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, they're not. I think the left side's decent. Like J.C. davis and Josh Gasket, their left tackle and left guard, at least by PFF grade, have. Have played well. The right side's been really bad and they also have some potential health stuff at center. Like Josh Cruz, their center didn't play against Purdue. Said he probably could have, but he knows that Josh Cruz like wanted to play against Ohio State. So like they held him back in that game so he could play in this game. But like either way, like, think about what Kaden Curry has done as like an interior pass rusher on passing down and it's like, who's he gonna be up against? Like either a bad right guard or an injured starting center or the backup center. And it's like, I don't love any of that. Illinois and Arvel Reese, we've seen what he can do to interior. Interior offensive lineman. I just. If Illinois is going to try to drop back and throw the ball a lot against Ohio State, I think you'll see what happened against Indiana when Gotmeyer got sacked seven times and he's been sacked 19 times this year.

[Bill Landis]

They.

[Doug Les Maurice]

It's what, it's the second hot second most in the power four in like three fourth or fifth most in the country.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, there's only, there's only four teams that have given up more than 19 sacks. Middle Tennessee State, Arkansas State, Auburn and Missouri State. So. Right. Yeah.

[Doug Les Maurice]

And I think like the Auburn thing is at least partly like Jackson Arnold holds onto the ball forever. That's not. I don't luke out where does kind.

[Bill Landis]

Of hold on to the ball.

[Doug Les Maurice]

He holds on the ball a little bit, but it's more a function of just like they they've gotten overwhelmed when they've played good defensive lines against Duke and against Indiana. And we think Ohio State has a good defensive line and it's probably the best group that they faced so far. They're not as aggressive like blitzing wise as Indiana and Duke are just sort of generally. But I could see Matt Patricia like increasing their blitz rate. They blitzed the most. They blitzed all year last week against Minnesota. I could see that carrying over because okay, Illinois's offensive line does not handle it well and even look like Luke Altmeyer for a veteran guy is fine against the blitz and fine against pressure. But like Julian saying for instance is like significantly better against the blitz and against pressure than Myers. So we will get to that.

[Bill Landis]

Yes.

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[Doug Les Maurice]

It's just not a, it's not a drop back pass game. And like Illinois knows that, like they're not going to try to win that way.

[Bill Landis]

No, I, and I think, you know, we've been talking about like Ohio State when they had six sacks against Washington, but not a lot of them were quick sacks. These could be quick sacks. They could destroy. They could make the Illinois offense non functional. And that's just with Kaden Curry doing his thing. That's with Arvell Reese doing his thing. But that's also as you said, with Matt Patricia deciding this is an opportunity for us to be more aggressive. We don't have to rush three, drop eight and feel people out. Let's attack them. And I think they might attack them from the jump and which is why I think Illinois, like, I don't know what they're gonna do. I think it is we really like. So this was like a couple years ago, they got J.C. davis at left tackle and Melvin Priestley at right tackle in the portal and it was like Brett Bilema really went and went and like got aggressive in the portal and solved two problems. And I thought they both played pretty decently at tackle last year. And it's like, man, they're both back. Here we go. And then it's like this offensive line, like they just, they can't protect at all. Like it's stunning sometimes. And yet, you know, Vinny Anthony is a guy at Duke, I guess that's a pretty good pass rushing prospect. He destroyed Illinois. You know, we know Indiana has some guys like they destroyed him, but they're getting like destroyed and then they've got a problem solve out of that. I just think I, if I were Illinois, I would assume the destruction. You don't have to see Kaden Curry stick his shoulder in Luke Altmeyer's gut three times. You don't have to see Arvell Reese split and be on top of the, the quarterback before he even gets the shotgun snap. You just assume it's going to happen. So then what? So that's what makes me curious because I just don't think they have a chance. I think they've been that bad on the offensive line. And Ohio State, even though it's not like their primary thing, I think they can do it when they choose to do it and they will choose to do it and I think they'll destroy Illinois if Illinois tries any kind of drop back passing game.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I, I agree with you. The, the other thing that showed up in. What I was watching too is that there are certainly plenty of, of instances of offensive linemen just like losing their one on one against defensive linemen. But Illinois's offensive line also seems to like have no idea like how to diagnose things. Like if you're bringing a defensive back or you're bringing a linebacker from depth, like they don't see him and that guy just runs free. Like Luke Altmire in the, in the USC game and the Purdue game got lit up by blitzing cornerbacks because like they came from the blind side. No one touched him and like he had no idea that that guy was coming. So like, I don't know, watch out for like a Davis and Igbanosin or Jermaine Matthew Sack maybe because that seemed.

[Bill Landis]

To show up a lot. And watching Illinois and I know Bielema after they got blitzed by Indiana was saying like we've got to reevaluate. Are we asking them to do things they can't do? And then they did play better against usc. So it was like, okay, maybe, maybe this is part of it of. And asking him to do is are they asking him to do things that are too difficult? Are they ask going to do things that are normal and they still just can't execute them. So they've got to get more basic or they've got to max protect more and give more help. I don't know. But it did feel like a step forward a little bit against usc. But then I don't, I don't know that that continued against Purdue.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I, I would say it did not. Yeah, yeah.

[Bill Landis]

So real, real opportunity here. It's like kind of the number one thing of the game. And then the like the other interesting part of this is 63 to 10 and it's related to both sides of the ball. We'll get into the other side of it in a second. But for Illinois to get destroyed like that by Indiana, which is now three weeks ago, Ryan Day said, throw it out like that. He said we're not even really looking at it. He said we're looking at their other games. We're looking at last year. We're looking at Bielema at Wisconsin, but they're almost not looking at that. When we get to the Illinois defense, there's some things we can talk about why I think it's maybe more applicable. But is that how you view it? Like almost ignore it? It was just the worst night that you could have or is part of it like, well, you know, some of it was really bad. But it's like things that can. Could continue to be bad for Illinois.

[Doug Les Maurice]

On Saturday, I think offensively, yeah, it's things that can continue to be bad. And I understand where Ryan Day is coming from, because he doesn't want to create the thought in his team's mind that Illinois stinks. So, like, we're good. We don't have to be on point with this. Right? So, yeah, I think, like, of course they watched it. They. They watched it. Trust me. I don't know if they watched it as a team, but the staff watched it. It's like one of like, you. This could. The staff watches it for the schematics and they, like, you don't show it to the team because you want them in the proper mindset. Yeah, but. Yeah, especially on. On this side of the ball. The defense, Ohio State's defense against Illinois's offense. It wasn't like Illinois was shorthanded in that game defensively, which I'm sure you'll talk about like they were. They had their full boat on offense for the most part in that game, and they got overwhelmed by Indiana's defense.

[Bill Landis]

Okay, all right, let's flip it. But before we do, let's remind you that you can find some really cool Ohio state [e-mail]. r, H, O, B, A, C, K. I'm looking at one right now. It's a black hoodie with a little red buckeye leaf right here. Like right kind of to high middle of your chest. It's just, like, really cool and subtle and kind of classy. And that's the kind of stuff that Roback can bring to your Ohio State collection. So we would encourage you just if you. If you've never tried that website, maybe just go check it out. Holidays will be here before you know it. Like an opportunity for a good present. You can get out ahead of that. An opportunity for. Man, if you think Ohio State's going to make another playoff run and you really want to have, like, you want to, you know, be able to wear stuff to work or to school or, like, you know, out and about. I want, like, really cool gear because, like, man, the Buckeyes might repeat for the first time ever. Rollback.com had just a lot of cool stuff like that. I really like some of the quarter zips they have with the stripe across it. Go check it out and you'll get 20 off your first order if you put in the code bad 20. That's B, A, D, 20. 20 off your first order at roback. Dot com. Illinois has no defensive playmakers in their back seven anymore. And there are just dudes running.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

So Xavier Scott, they're. They're one of their safeties was. I think I voted in second in my preseason all Big Ten defensive player of the year ballot behind Caleb Downs. Ask how good I thought he was. And he's not playing. He's hurt. And that is a. He is a. He's a playmaker. He's their version of Caleb Downs. Is that like a, like a decent comparison? We're not saying he is Caleb Downs, but he's their version of Caleb Downs.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, he had like if, yeah, if you approach it from the right point of view, like he has the same impact on his defense. I think the Caleb Downsize on Ohio States.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, he kind of ties everything together. He's both like the glue and the playmaker, I think. And without him, I. Man, you just watch. And so. So last week they did not blitz Purdue very much. They blitz Purdue 28 of the time. And we'll get into some of the other blitz percentages they've done, but they didn't blitz. And so they were playing a lot of that three man, four man rush. Sit back in coverage and make you work down the field. Right. It looked a little bit like what Ohio State tries to do, but then they missed tackles, they missed assignments, they took terrible angles. Miles Scott, who's another defensive back for them, is probably now their best defensive player, at least in the back seven. They had a play where they blitzed a corner and Miles Scott is supposed to come up and then take that coverage. He ran straight at where the receiver was two seconds ago, and the guy ran right by him and they hit him for a 60 yard touchdown. So first of all, it's like, it's a terrible play call. And then your best guy, your best veteran guy takes a horrible angle and It's a free 60 yards. They just. There are Purdue guys running everywhere. And it was just so stark, Landis, that it was a. It's a reminder about the Ohio State defense of. Just because you maybe are patient and try to make teams work down the field doesn't mean you're good at it. And there, there's a couple guys, there's a linebacker for them. I don't want to call guys out. He is a missed tackle machine. He misses tackles in the middle of the field. He's in the wrong gap. They scored on a long run. He just went. He went. I don't even know where he was going. But the Result was there's a huge gap on the right side. They make one block and a guy's out of the house for 50 yards. And there's just fundamental breakdowns of guys in space that I think Ohio State offensively has a chance to kill them in the middle of the field, to kill them with some run game stuff. I don't know that this is an over the top kind of thing, but I think it is a crossing routes, rpo, break a tackle and you're gone. Kind of explosive potential game for Ohio State because I was stunned by watching this Illinois defense, like guys run free.

[Doug Les Maurice]

There'S a lot of space and I like, I, they looked like, I, I think I like their defensive coordinator but like they seem like a pretty poorly coached anymore.

[Bill Landis]

Poorly coach defense like Aaron Henry. So Aaron Henry took over for Ryan Walters a couple years ago. So this is Aaron Henry's third year and we talked about this a lot in the off season. It's like they've gotten a little bit better. But Illinois, if it wanted to be a playoff team, needed to make a jump to a top 25 defense. And they're not close. They're not close. And then by the way, it's not their fault they lost their best defensive player. But this is not even about, as you said, like they had like four other defensive backs who were hurt in the Indiana game. They're playing third string guys. Those guys, those guys are back. So they're, they're healthy now aside from missing Xavier Scott, which remains a huge loss. But even like Jaheim Clark in their secondary was out for the first four games. He was supposed to be their number two corner coming into the year. So he was also out against Indiana, but they knew he was out now as healthy as they can be in the secondary and they were last week against Purdue besides Xavier Scott. Okay, so they still like, right. They're playing, they like five of their top six guys. Six of their top seven guys.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

And they have their linebackers and there's just not a guy, there's not a guy who's gonna make a play. There's not a guy who's going to track you down. There's not a guy who's going to come up and I think deliver a blow. There's not a guy who's going to make a read and break on a ball and make a play and, and, and this secondary had to get better. I, I don't think Aaron Henry and this defense have made a jump at all. And I think Ohio State and Julian saying has a chance to just like absolutely pick them apart.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I kind of think so too. It's just a matter of like what, what's that look like? And how many possessions does Ohio State end up with?

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[Doug Les Maurice]

But I was looking at yards after the catch and I don't I wasn't able to like see where this ranks nationally because like the site I was using just isn't set up that way. But in the games against Power 4 competition, Illinois's defense on average is allowing almost 170 yards after the catch per year game.

[Bill Landis]

Unbelievable.

[Doug Les Maurice]

By comparison, Ohio State allows 65.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, like talking about this. So like past plays of 10 yards or more, Illinois allowed 62. Ohio State now Illinois played one more game. So Illinois played six games, Ohio State played five. But in six games, Illinois's allowed 62. Ohio State's allowed 21 in five games past plays of eight of 20 yards or more. In six games, Illinois is allowed 18. Ohio State's allowed eight fourth down conversions. Illinois ranks 105th in the country. Defensively, they allowed offenses to convert 43.4% of their third downs. USC was eight of 14, Indiana was eight of 11. Purdue was five of 13. Stop rate, which is like getting off the field, right? That you, you force a team to end a drive with either a fourth down, stop, a punt or a turnover. They are 75th in the country in stop rate. Right. So they're not, they don't get, they don't get off the field on third down. They don't get off the field in general. They've actually like, they, they forced some turnovers that I think have like sort of kept them alive at times. But down to down they just are not a good defense.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah. Did you, I, did you go back and watch any of the USC game? Like Makai Lemon destroyed them? Yeah, like they had no. And like if you look at like the pff, like eight different guys tried to cover him and nothing worked.

[Bill Landis]

So now can they get after the passer at all? Right. So they do have a decent number of sacks. They have 15 sacks, which is pretty good. But they've played two bad teams and they have eight sacks in two games versus the bad teams and they have seven sacks in four games versus the good teams. So I don't, I don't. And, and I think we just have to have a discussion about this Ohio State offensive line as much as you're saying like oh, the, the Illinois offensive line, A, they're losing one on one matchups and B, they're not picking up where guys are coming from. Ohio State's offensive line doesn't lose one on one offensive matchups and they do know where guys are coming from. Like I don't think this Ohio State offensive line has just been so locked in and connected that Gabe Akis, right, is a pretty good pass rusher on the edge. He has 19 pressures. James Thompson is a guy from Wisconsin on the interior as a transfer that like got a lot of discussion the off season. He has seven pressures. I don't know. But I don't like Gabe Akis as good as he is. He's not going to destroy Philip Daniels and, and Austin Seravel. Then they're not going to come up. We'll Talk about blitzes in a second. But I just, I just don't think this Illinois defense is prepared to handle this Ohio State offensive line.

[Doug Les Maurice]

No, it's an offensive line that's playing really well, that appears to be really well coached, connected, as you said. I don't, I don't, I don't think I've sensed a whole lot of instances where they appear to be confused by anything. It was funny, like, hearing Austin Saravel talk last week going into the Minnesota game, like he, he thought he played poorly against Texas. Right. He didn't give up anything against Colin Simmons or any other Texas pass rushes, I don't think. But he said, like, yeah, my sets were awful. Like, my head was kind of spinning. I don't know how I got through the game without giving up a lot. But it's like. And I think maybe like the offensive line generally might have felt like that. Like, if you look, that's. That's probably the worst game they played. And they still played pretty well in that game. And since then they just kind of been on it even last week. Like Anthony Smith from Minnesota is going to be like a top hundred draft pick and like they shut that dude down. So.

[Bill Landis]

Yep.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Could Gabe have like a legacy game? Maybe. But I like, if. Short of that, I don't know that there's much you look at in that matchup on the line of scrimmage that doesn't favor Ohio State with the way that it's played so far this year. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

So I. It's just really an uphill battle for Illinois. And then if they want to try to bring it so they only blitzed against Purdue 28 of the time. USC 48, Indiana 41, Duke 58. Okay, so you want to try to generate some pressure. Do you know which quarterback in the Power 4 is best against the blitz according to PFF, Julian saying. It is Julian Sand. He has a 91.8 PFF rating against the blitz. He completes 79% of his passes, eight touchdowns, one interception, 9.8 yards per attempt against the blitz. He is completely in control for a young guy in those situations. And I, I think you would invite it. So I want to have a discussion about this, actually. If you were a defensive coordinator, what would you try to do against Julian Saying?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Honestly, like, what everyone has tried to do, which is like, make them work it down the field. Because I guess the one, the one area where Julian saying has been like, not quite as efficient as throwing the ball in the red zone. So, like, make them. I probably make them do that.

[Bill Landis]

Except, but also like I, I think that's probably right also because you can't allow them to hit you with big plays. You can't play man and with big plays. And you can't, I think sell out on the blitz because sand and the offensive line will handle it together. So he like he's been blitzed 33% of the time, which is not that much. So I think, I think defensive coordinators know this. Right. There are some guys like Steve Angeli at Syracuse is getting blitzed 58% of the time. Right. Preston Stone at Northwestern is getting blitzed 49 of the time. Fernando Mendoza at Indiana is getting blitzed 47 of the time. John Mateer at Oklahoma is getting blitzed 46 of the time. C.J. cart, Notre Dame's getting blitzed 43.5% of the time as a, as a young first year quarterback. Bryce Underwood at Michigan is getting blitzed 42% of the time. I think people have figured this out. Well, you can't really blitz Julian saying so you have to mix it in some. Of course, sure. But I don't think Illinois is going to be able to generate a pass rush without blitzing and then I don't think they're going to be able to cover. I don't, I'm not sure how Illinois stops seems.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Oh, bad combination. Yeah, I think, I mean, I guess he's not Julian Saint has not been hit a lot. Like he took that shot last week against Minnesota and completed a great pass to Max Claire. You know, he got hit against Ohio and gave the ball away. Right. Like, I think, I think you blitz to see if you can hit him. And then how does he play after actually getting hit a few times? Even if you're not sacking him, if you're, if you're getting physical with him, does that change his demeanor at all? I, I, I, my guess would be probably not. But it's like a box, I guess that he hasn't checked yet that you'd want to try to see if he can if you're Illinois.

[Bill Landis]

So I do think this is a game where I expect Ohio State to throw it a decent amount, but I do think it's efficient move down the field. They'll not give up the deep shots. But, but saying and then Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate, Max Claire, maybe Brandon Ennis, they'll just kind of have their way on intermediate routes on the RPO game, on breaking tackles and making big plays. I think it's a yards after the catch game. I don't think it's an over the top game, but I think Illinois, I think their only choice, as you said, maybe any defense's only choice is to make Ohio State consistently move the ball down the field. And then I think Ohio State's passing game will do just that.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Red zone roulette. See. See whether or not you can, you can win. Max Claire, by the way, career high in receiving yards last year against Illinois when He was at Purdue, 133 on six catches.

[Bill Landis]

And then Ohio State run game. Right. I mean, it's just like if CJ Donaldson is morphing a little bit into the short down back and so it's Bo Jackson and then a little bit of James Peoples. Like, I think, I think Ohio State fans, I think everybody kind of has a handle on the Ohio State run game now and it's, I think, pretty darn reliable and probably will get better as Bo Jackson as a true freshman, continues to get more accustomed to playing college ball.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, I think, and I saw, I think it was, I think I saw Ross Fulton talking about this at Buckeye Huddle. Like there's still some stuff about people, people wanted to see, like more consistent explosive plays from Ohio State's run game. And I think it's just a good reminder that like when you run an RPO and you throw the ball and then Carnell Tate takes a slant 45 yards, that's kind of an explosive run. So they are, they're, they are, they're calling runs to turn in the passes to still end up being explosive. But you know, we saw the big hits from Bo Jackson in those games against Grambling in Ohio. Maybe you want to see him get a little bit, get a little loose here in this game too. I think there'll be opportunities too, because as you, as you mentioned, Illinois is a bad tackling team.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. Okay. Anything else we need to bring up before we dive into our picks here?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Just looking at my notes. No, I think we covered everything.

[Bill Landis]

Okay. All right. As we said, it's a 14 point spread. 49 and a half for the total. What is your score?

[Doug Les Maurice]

Bill landis, Ohio State 35, Illinois 10.

[Bill Landis]

I'm 35. 9.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Three field goals or you'll go on a safe or touchdown in a safety.

[Bill Landis]

Or like Bilama goes for two after they score their one touchdown because like he's trying. You know what I mean? I don't know.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Oh, yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Something goofy.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yes.

[Bill Landis]

Or just bang the extra point off the, off the upright. I think 49 and a half is a pretty high Total. So like this is not a gambling show. But I, I will sprinkle prob 2 bucks on the under here.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I, I did as well. I just, I just don't think. I, I guess there's like the, I thought USC and like it had to because it was like a back and forth game. Then it was down. Started playing with more tempo in a way that seemed pretty effective against Illinois's defense. But I just don't know that Ohio State's going to feel the need to do that. Which is to say they'll probably continue to just play slow. So I could even see like whatever 283 or 28 7, something like that. Like maybe Ohio State has the ball seven times in this game. But I just don't know unless I'm, I'm, I. There could be big plays, right? There could be two play scoring drives for Ohio State with some of what we're seeing from Illinois defense. And if that happens, then the number gets high. But I, I do think it'll be a more methodical lower possession game and.

[Bill Landis]

Hank Beatty's that for Illinois too. Like there are three receivers, three receivers in this game who have a chance to go to the house every time they touch the ball in Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Hank Beatty. So like I do think you also have to factor that in as part of it. But I think game plan, I think game script, I think what Brett Bielema is going to try to do to junk this up, I think that lends itself too. And again like to me third. So we both have 35 for Ohio State. So I think that gets five touchdowns on maybe seven possessions for the first team offense.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah, I think so.

[Bill Landis]

And then you throw in like maybe one time where you go for it, you go for it from midfield on fourth and four and don't get it and you throw in one punt and then the other five are touchdowns and like that's your game.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I'm looking to see the first team offense last week against Minnesota had 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 possessions.

[Bill Landis]

Okay. And scored what, six touchdowns.

[Doug Les Maurice]

The first starter score scored five touchdowns.

[Bill Landis]

Five backup scored one. Okay, so I think, I think that's what we're talking about. And so we're pretty comfortable with, given the 14 with Ohio State, we're pretty comfortable with the under. You know, if, if Bielema is supremely successful in junking it up. I mean could Illinois keep it within 14, you know, if it's, if it's more like, yeah, 27 to 14 or something. Somehow I don't know that's not where we think it is, but I just don't. This is just. It's interesting. It's that it's. This is what Ryan Day, he said the word efficiency a million times on Tuesday. Right. And trying to talk about that. I think, I think fans are understanding this.

[Doug Les Maurice]

It's.

[Bill Landis]

It's not really about points. It's not really about number of plays. It's the efficiency with. Within whatever you're doing. And you know, I was doing some research on. First we did a substack subscriber if you want to go check out our [e-mail] I was doing a little research comparing this Ohio State offense with the first time offensive coordinator and Brian Hartline to 2012 when Tom Herman was the offensive coordinator for the first. Not his first time, but his first year at Ohio State and Ryan Day in 2017, his first year at Ohio State plays per game. 2012 they averaged 70 plays per game. 2017 they averaged 75 plays per game. This year they're averaging 61 plays per game. But yards per play in 2012 they averaged 6 yards per play. 2017, 7.5 or 7.45. So you look at like yards per game in 20 and this is all for the first five games. So I was just looking at the first five games of the season. You look at 2017, Ryan Day's first year as the offense coordinator, 565 yards per game in the first five games. This year it's 451 yards per game in the first five Games. But the yards per play is the same.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Right.

[Bill Landis]

So like that's, that's what they think about and I think this has a chance to be a supremely efficient game from the Ohio State offense that I think will make Brian Hartline and Ryan Day very happy.

[Doug Les Maurice]

Yeah. Oh, one other thing. I agree with everything you said. Sometimes the weather gets weird in champagne. It actually looks normal. It looks normal.

[Bill Landis]

Okay. Wind, wind. Like wind. Swirling wind in that place. Yeah.

[Doug Les Maurice]

I think it's supposed to be like 70 and sunny and common ones. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. So we'll have a post game show right after it on Saturday so you can join us live on YouTube for that. We will have a national pick show on Friday where we'll cover a bunch of big ten games that matter, a couple southern games that matter and then we continue to have our coverage on substack which will include our Sunday sound off where we take questions and comments from our subscribers and. And do another pod. Another show on Sunday morning. So you're good? You're good?

[Doug Les Maurice]

I'm good. Yeah. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

All right, ready? That's it for our big game breakdown of the Illinois Fighting A Lion Eye and the Ohio State Buckeyes. Thanks, you guys, for joining us. For now, he's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Les Maurice. And that was the Bill and Doug Show.