The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State vs. Indiana Picks and Big Game Breakdown for the Big Ten Championship Game

Podcast: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Hosts: Douglas Lesmerises and Bill Landis
Date: December 4, 2025
Episode Theme: In-depth breakdown and picks for the Big Ten Championship Game—Ohio State (OSU) vs. Indiana, a rare 1 vs. 2 showdown between two undefeated teams, along with a discussion of historical context, key matchups, Heisman implications, and some fun off-topic moments.

Episode Overview

Doug and Bill deliver a comprehensive, stats-rich, and lighthearted preview of the Big Ten title game between Ohio State and Indiana, focusing on what makes this matchup historically special: it's only the 64th 1 vs. 2 game in college football history and features the defending national champions. The hosts dig into team histories, key stats, positional matchups, strategic approaches, and make their picks. They also touch on the Heisman race, college football playoff scenarios, and sprinkle in personality-driven tangents and humor.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Magnitude of the Matchup

[01:06-06:50]

• Only the 64th 1 vs. 2 matchup in college football history, and the 8th for Ohio State.
• First time two Big Ten teams meet as undefeated 1 vs. 2 in a conference championship.
• Ohio State has a 5-2 all-time record in previous 1 vs. 2 games.
• Historical rundown of previous OSU 1 vs. 2 games, including wins/losses vs. Miami (2002), Texas, Michigan (2006), Florida and LSU (2006-07), Texas (2025 opener) and now Indiana.
• Doug: “They don't play 12 games for the heck of it at Ohio State... These are a real deal.” ([03:18])

2. Championship Game Stakes and Bowl Implications

[07:00-10:15]

• Winner advances as 1-seed with first-round bye (presumably to the Rose Bowl), loser likely goes to the Orange Bowl, possibly as 2- or 3-seed depending on SEC outcomes.
• Both teams likely secure a top-three playoff seed regardless of outcome—minimal movement projected unless there is an upset by the SEC champion.
• Bill: “I don’t even think falling to four for the loser is really a possibility. I think you’re right that the floor is number three.” ([14:36])

3. OSU vs. Indiana Rivalry History and Current Status

[08:55]

• OSU leads the all-time series 80-12-5, with a 30-game winning streak versus Indiana dating back to 1988.
• Indiana, under new coach Curt Cignetti, overcame being the historically losingest program in college football until recently.

4. How Good Are These Teams?—Advanced Metrics Comparison

[12:04-14:35]

• Both OSU and Indiana have a staggering number of All-Big Ten selections (18 and 17, respectively).
• Pro Football Focus (PFF), SP+ (ESPN), and other analytics consistently rank OSU and Indiana #1 and #2 across offensive and defensive metrics nationally.
• Both teams' defenses are among the top 4, offenses ranked top 3-5.
• Doug: “We know a lot of you guys like T-Shoe. That was a busy day. If for some reason that one got past you, make sure you go back and find the Tyler Shoemaker interview.” ([17:43])—Notes the value of power ratings stacking these teams up nationally.

5. Ohio State Offense vs. Indiana Defense

[19:48-51:34]

Key Stats

• Indiana is #2 in scoring defense (10.9 ppg), OSU is #13 in scoring offense (37 ppg).
• Indiana: #1 red zone touchdown defense (27.8%), #8 in yards/play allowed (4.5).
• OSU: #1 in third down offense, Indiana #4 in third down defense.

Indiana Defensive Line

• Undersized but hyper-productive and havoc-driven; average 285 lbs. across the front, use creative stunts and pressures.
• Makhail Kamara leads the Big Ten in pressures but has only 1 sack—"very puzzling" but attributed to scheme and quick-releasing QBs ([24:24]).
• DC Bryan Haynes, a former OSU GA, is creative in designing havoc without excessive blitzing. “They want to generate a lot of havoc... but they’re not hyper-aggressive… just really creative.” ([27:00] Bill)

Matchup Focus

• Challenge for OSU’s improving O-line is handling stunts, simulated pressures, and Indiana’s strategic isolations.
• OSU’s RBs, especially Bo Jackson and CJ Donaldson, must pass protect well.
• Indiana’s defense is built around confusing looks but doesn’t rely on constant heavy blitzing.

Pass Game Opportunities

• Indiana’s linebackers often targeted in pass defense, "not very good in coverage"—expect TE Max Clare and RBs to be factors.
• Outside CB D’Angelo Ponds is a stud, projects to hold his own against anyone, but Indiana's depth at corner is lacking.
• Doug: “I just don’t know that Indiana has the guys that cover both of [Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith].” ([42:06])

Explosiveness vs. Efficiency

• OSU may see reduced efficiency but more big-play chances.
• With the game indoors and on a “fast track,” Doug anticipates OSU will “grip it and rip it” with deep shots to receivers.

Memorable Quotes

• “If you have two superstars, we really want to make sure that at least one of them is out there on the floor, out there on the field as much as possible.” (Doug, [37:58])
• “It could be somewhat tough sledding trying to throw the ball to the D’Angelo Ponds side... but there could be opportunities elsewhere for Ohio State.” (Bill, [42:09])

6. Heisman Trophy Talk & Voter Biases

[52:29-57:52]

• Bill and Doug debate the Heisman race between OSU’s Julian Sayin, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, and Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt).
• Discuss how championship week can shape or decide Heisman winners and the potential for a southern voting bloc to boost Pavia.
• Doug: “Do you think that, like, there’s a Southern block that could hand this thing to Pavia?” ([55:02])
• Bill: “I think there’s a Southern block that’s gonna… have him sort of right in the thick of it.” ([55:10])

7. Indiana Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

[58:53-97:03]

Key Stats and Honors

• OSU: #1 scoring defense (7.8 ppg), gave up only 9 TDs in 12 games.
• Indiana: #2 scoring offense (44.3 ppg), #6 in yards/play.
• Both teams loaded with All-Big Ten talent on D (OSU) and O (Indiana).

Indiana Offensive Line & Skill Players

• Not as dominant, but much improved over 2024, especially with first-teamers (LT Carter Smith, C Pat Coogan).
• LT, LG, and C are strengths (if LG Drew Evans is healthy); RG and RT are potential weak spots—especially against OSU’s DEs.
• Two strong RBs (Hemby, Black), a very good but under-used TE (Nowakowski).
• “This is the best collection of receivers Ohio State will have played.” (Bill, quoting S Jalen McClain, [72:20])
• WRs Elijah Surratt and Omar Cooper Jr. both second-team All-Big Ten—deep, reliable, big-play threats.

Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza

• “He is a more natural athlete than Julian Sayin… he will make big plays with his legs when necessary… but he will also make mistakes.” (Doug, [77:46])
• Veteran (32nd career start), smart, accurate, good decision-maker, and mobile—will play on Sundays (NFL).
• Noted for his RPO game and quick-release; will punish slow adjustments. Heavy RPO, especially over the middle.
• Against pressure: Can make elite throws vs. the blitz but also “gets loose” at times; ranks 18th (out of Power 4 QBs) when blitzed, 4th when not blitzed.
  • “Some of the best defenses he’s faced have lit him up over and over and have been willing to take the risk.” (Doug, [78:18])

OSU Defensive Strategy

• Debate: Should OSU blitz Mendoza?
• Doug and Bill both lean yes—get after him to force mistakes, rather than let him pick apart soft zones.
• OSU’s pass D is elite, with several future NFLers in the secondary but can get “handsy”—might depend on officiating.
• Caleb Downs’ role will be key: may play a “robber” spot to prevent RPO slants in the intermediate middle.
• OSU rarely plays three linebackers; expects to stay in nickel to counter Indiana’s spread.
• “This is a spot where Ohio State’s really going to need [Caleb Downs].” (Bill, [95:12])

Memorable Quotes

• “I have the fate of the program and the fate of Buckeye Nation on my back. I’m not going to let that happen.” —S Jalen McClain, on his tackling responsibility as the back line ([91:42])

8. Game Flow and Final Predictions

[100:10-102:38]

• Both expect a defensive struggle, but with explosive play potential.
• Final picks:
  • Bill: OSU covers, wins 28-20.
  • Doug: OSU 31-23, showing “great respect for Indiana’s offense…. When you have a quarterback like Mendoza, who is a good decision maker but can still make plays, he’s a decision maker and a playmaker.”

Notable Quotes and Moments

• On the Stakes:

  • “This is a big deal… The only two remaining undefeated teams in college football in the Big Ten Championship. That doesn’t happen often.” —Doug ([02:17])

• On Indiana’s D Coordinator Bryan Haynes:

  • “He’s funny... he always claps back at fans in a way I find really entertaining.” —Bill ([26:09])

• On Strategy:

  • “I think we could see this as good as Julian Sayin is… I think they’ll lean into it.” —Doug, on OSU airing it out indoors ([50:18])

• On Indiana’s Receivers:

  • “This is the best group of receivers they’ve played, and that’s not me saying that, that’s Jalen McClain.” —Bill ([72:20])

• On Defensive Discipline:

  • “That’s my job. I don’t need shout outs.” —Jalen McClain, on saving long runs from turning into TDs against Michigan ([91:57])

Important Segment Timestamps

• Game Context & Stakes: [01:06–06:50]
• Series/Rivalry History: [08:55]
• Metrics Comparison: [12:04–14:35]
• OSU Offense vs. Indiana Defense Deep Dive: [19:48–51:34]
• Heisman Race Analysis: [52:29–57:52]
• Indiana Offense Breakdown: [58:53–97:03]
• Coaching & Team Culture: [98:09–99:07]
• Final Picks: [100:10–102:38]
• Personality/Off-topic Fun:
  • Childhood holiday movies, mustaches, turkey breakfast sandwiches ([103:45–end])
  • “Sexy cartoon animals” & Zootopia ([106:32–108:55])
  • Food safety and leftover turkey debate ([112:20–113:52])

Overall Tone and Style

Doug and Bill’s banter is breezy, slightly irreverent, but deeply informed—rich with stats, anecdotes, and contextual insight. The episode is a mix of hardcore analysis, historic perspective, and classic sportswriter gallows humor. They reference their reporting background, advanced stats, and even their culinary and facial hair preferences with easy camaraderie.

Useful for Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode is a must for fans seeking an advanced, nuanced preview of the Big Ten title game. The hosts balance historical context, in-the-weeds metrics, and fun human touches—offering both football nerd value (in scheme, stats, and projections) and a taste of the personalities who make Buckeye coverage so enjoyable. Even non-diehards will appreciate learning what makes these teams so good, why this matchup is rare, and where the key stress points lie on the field.

If you want to skip the ads and tangents, focus on the timestamps above for the deep football discussion.