Ohio State vs. Indiana power ratings, Michigan reaction, no SEC teams in Top 6 with Tyler Shoemaker

Summary

The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State vs. Indiana Power Ratings, Michigan Reaction, and No SEC Teams in Top 6 (with Tyler Shoemaker)

Podcast: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Host: Blue Wire
Guests: Doug Lesmerises, Bill Landis, Tyler Shoemaker “Tissue”
Date: December 2, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode features Doug and Bill joined by long-time friend and college football handicapper Tyler Shoemaker (“Tissue”). The trio dives into Tyler’s unique power ratings heading into conference championship week, particularly examining Ohio State and Indiana at the top of his metrics, the fallout and analytical takeaways from Rivalry Week (especially Michigan-Ohio State), the surprising lack of SEC teams in the top six, and looks at how analytics intersect with the emotional side of fandom and big-game expectations. The crew also discusses their personal approaches to betting, recaps season-long trends, explores the narratives around program approaches (Indiana’s “prove it” vs. Ohio State maintenance), and debates playoff contenders through the lens of the Tissue Index.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Tyler Shoemaker’s Background & Approach

• Tyler’s Credentials: Not just a lifelong Buckeye fan, Tyler is a professional handicapper and founder of the “Tissue Index” power ratings used on VSiN.com and his own site.
• Tissue Index Methodology:
  • Opponent and tempo-adjusted, applying these principles across all sports.
  • Emphasizes that unadjusted, “raw” stats are misleading in NCAA football due to imbalanced schedules and play style differences.
  • Multiple metrics (e.g., opponent-adjusted points per game, yards per play) feed into ratings to avoid getting overly influenced by outlier games.

“I always lead the crusade online of like, if you’re posting raw stats… that’s great, but to infer that there’s any meaning in those, in a sport like college football, it’s just, it’s very misleading.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [09:43]

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2. A Buckeye Fan’s Emotional Journey

• Relief after Win Over Michigan:
  • Tyler describes the 2025 rivalry win as “such a relief… you could exhale.”
  • In previous years, his numbers mostly favored Ohio State, so upsets felt like “gut punches”—especially when losing money betting as both a fan and an analyst.

"You bet on them and you want them to win as a fan, and you lose money and you lose patience. So you know that’s a lose-lose for sure."
—Tyler Shoemaker, [05:02]

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3. Rivalry Week and the Role of Human Factors in Handicapping

• Rivalry Week Chaos?:
  • Doug asks if you should “throw out the records” during rivalry week.
  • Tyler’s evolved to factor in more “art” alongside analytics, making it about 60% numbers, 40% intangibles that week.
  • Even so, his 2025 betting week was “terrible,” but his numbers generally held up.

"I’ve learned that in rivalry week, it’s gotta be maybe not 50/50, but maybe 60/40 in favor of the numbers. But you definitely have to account for the intangible stuff."
—Tyler Shoemaker, [06:40]

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4. Explaining the Tissue Index (TSI)

• How It Works:
  • A proprietary, opponent- and tempo-adjusted model combining metrics like points per game, yards per play, points per play, and drive-by-drive efficiency.
  • “Blends together” to avoid data skew from outlier results.
  • Results can be interpreted as projected scores for games.

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5. 2025 Power Ratings: Indiana #1, Ohio State #2

• Current TSI Top Three:
  1. Indiana
  2. Ohio State (about two points behind)
  3. Notre Dame

"Indiana, then Ohio State, then about a two-point gap and then Notre Dame is number three."
—Tyler Shoemaker, [10:35]

• Notre Dame’s Resurgence:
  • Rough first two games, but metrics now show them near the top in opponent-adjusted yards per play and points per play.

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6. Are Indiana and Ohio State Historically Good?

• Both close to 2023 Michigan’s national championship power rating (30).
• Indiana: 28.6, Ohio State: 27 — “within a field goal of some of those national champions.”

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7. What Drives the TSI Numbers for Indiana?

• Indiana’s big wins (e.g., beating Illinois by 60, winning at Oregon) do matter, but advantage comes from broader play-by-play efficiency and opponent adjustment.
• TSI designed to be robust against single-game outliers.

“Could one or two results skew the numbers... That’s what I try to avoid. That’s why I incorporate multiple metrics.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [16:47]

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8. Indiana vs. Ohio State: Perception, Motivation, and Preview

• Indiana has “run up the score,” trying to prove themselves, which gets picked up by metrics.
• Ohio State: “maintenance” mode, limiting player snaps for postseason freshness.
• Indiana is "all gas" in motivation; for Ohio State, "it’s a lot of gas… but they can’t match what it means to the Hoosiers."
• Speculation that Indiana-Ohio State for the Big Ten title could be the “greatest win in Indiana history.”

“Kurt Signetti is trying to make a point… he wants to prove they are not a fluke… Ohio State is maintaining something.”
—Doug, [19:24]

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9. Emotional and Strategic Factors Going Into the Championship

• Potential for Ohio State letdown after beating Michigan, but a long break following the game reduces risk.
• Analysis considers both the scheduling/emotional context and analytics.

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10. The Great SEC Debate: Is the SEC “Mid”?

• Per TSI, no SEC team in the top six, unprecedented in recent memory.
• Top SEC team: Georgia #7, followed closely by Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M (all in 7–10).
• Top six: Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Oregon, Miami.

“Yes, the SEC is mid and the Tissue Index said it.”
—Doug, [25:36]

"I’m fine with that. I’ll co-sign that.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [25:40]

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11. Committee Debates and the Playoff Field

• Miami is #6 in TSI but unlikely for the playoff—Tyler says committee “doesn’t actually just pick the best.”
• Notre Dame and Texas Tech seen as teams to avoid in the playoff, based on how strongly they’ve trended in the metrics.

“If the committee...wants the 12 best teams, Miami easily fits in that. The problem is we know they don’t just pick the best.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [27:29]

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12. Conference Title Game Projections

• Big Ten: Indiana 26, Ohio State 24 (total ~50)
• Big 12: Texas Tech over BYU 31–20
• ACC: Virginia 30, Duke 28 (calls matchup “hilarious”)
• SEC: Georgia-Bama: basically a toss-up; after Georgia’s struggles with Georgia Tech, Tyler sees both as “tier two” teams, far behind the northern powers; leans Over on total.

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13. Betting Philosophy and Personal Stories

• Both Tyler and Doug discuss betting small amounts for fun, the satisfaction in small wins, and the importance of transparent, accessible content for the community.

"Sometimes when a Tissue special just crosses my timeline, I’m like, that’s good enough for me. Let’s ride with that $2, baby."
—Doug, [39:30]

“I need to just only start betting the free ones I give out on Twitter because those hit at like 80%.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [39:44]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [04:38] Tyler Shoemaker: “Numbers were spot on that year…[but] I would never bet against [Ohio State] while I’m watching because that’s just like…torture.”
• [10:13] Doug: “Who is your number one power-rated team in the TSI this season?”
• [10:25] Tyler Shoemaker: “The Indiana Hoosiers.”
• [13:41] Tyler Shoemaker: “They’re right up there within a field goal of some of those national championship teams that we’ve seen in the past.”
• [21:52] Doug: “It’s all go. It’s all gas for Indiana on Saturday night. And I think for Ohio State, it’s a lot of gas…But they can’t match what it means to the Hoosiers. They can’t.”
• [25:36] Doug: “Yes, the SEC is mid and the Tissue Index said it.”
• [25:40] Tyler Shoemaker: “I’m fine with that. I’ll co-sign that.”
• [33:58] Doug: “This is like…it’s…enough of a score prediction for you, is that correct?” / Tyler: “Yep, that’s right. So I’ve got the total around 49 and a half, 50 with Indiana about a one-and-a-half point favorite.”
• [35:04] Tyler Shoemaker: “Duke was never a team I was scared to bet on because I really like their quarterback…and their offense is capable of putting up numbers.”

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Important Timestamps

• [01:36]–[04:38]: Introduction, Tyler’s background, and his emotional take after the Buckeyes’ win.
• [06:29]–[08:15]: How rivalry week changes the handicapping process and balance between analytics and intangibles.
• [08:58]–[10:13]: Detailed explanation of the Tissue Index and its uniqueness.
• [10:13]–[13:16]: 2025 ratings—Indiana #1, Ohio State #2—and historical context.
• [16:03]–[16:56]: Deep dive: what drives Indiana’s high power rating in the TSI.
• [17:45]–[22:46]: Team motivation, program strategy narratives, and psychological context ahead of the Big Ten title game.
• [23:54]–[26:06]: The 'is the SEC mid?' investigation—SEC teams outside TSI’s top six. Reaction to Doug’s theory and conference landscape narrative.
• [27:29]–[29:48]: Playoff teams and the committee’s selection versus true “best teams” by analytics.
• [30:17]–[31:08]: Notre Dame and Texas Tech as dangerous playoff teams.
• [31:50]–[34:05]: Handicapping Ohio State’s chances to repeat, and comparing on-paper equality vs. “proven” talent.
• [34:22]–[37:12]: Conference title game projections and reasoning, with a spotlight on the toss-up nature of Georgia-Bama.
• [38:17]–end: Personal betting anecdotes, philosophy, and the feel-good side of small-stakes gambling.

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Summary Takeaways for New Listeners

• Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI is among the most sophisticated, opponent- and tempo-adjusted power ratings in the sport—currently crowning Indiana as #1, slightly ahead of Ohio State.
• The crew gives a nuanced look at how numbers and intangibles collide, especially in big games and rivalry weeks, and how historical context and program motivation impact both analytics and fan energy.
• The SEC, by current TSI numbers, is having an “off year”—a fact that’s both a data story and a narrative win for those fighting Southern football bias.
• Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and Miami look like strong playoff threats by the numbers, even if current committee rankings might obscure their true strength.
• The discussions blend analytical rigor, transparency, and the fun, communal spirit of being a college football fan—and bettor—today.

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For more TSI picks and insights, follow Tyler Shoemaker on Twitter @TShoeIndex and check out both the VSiN podcast and billanddugosu.substack.com.

Transcript

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[Doug]

Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. Such a very special guest joining us here, our old friend Tyler Shoemaker. We're going to talk about in retrospect how you went about handicapping rivalry week. We're going to look ahead to conference championship games. We're just going to talk about tissues kind of power ratings in general in college football and also he's an Ohio State fan and what it was like to watch the Buckeyes break their four game losing skid tissue. You and I have been podcasting together for a long time. We haven't done it in a while. It's been too long. You are a bon vivant. You are a man about town. You are a fine fella and you are a great handicapper of college football. Great to see you brother.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Good to see you as always. You're right, it definitely has been way too long. I mean for us to do. I think we've done at least one show together every season since like 2018, so we couldn't, couldn't let the season pass by and not, not get one in.

[Doug]

Yeah. And someday, someday maybe you'll be even hanging out even more than just once a year. So we would love to have you back on a regular basis, but for now it's great to have you here and I just. You love the Buckeyes. What was it like for you on Saturday?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Man, Saturday was, as a lot of people I'm sure would agree with, it was just such a relief. Such a. You could take an exhale. Although, you know, after the, the first Jordan Marshall run and then the Julian saying pick, it was like, why do we do this every year?

[Doug]

Why?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

But, but from that point on it was, it was pretty much all positive for the Buckeyes, of course. So it was, it was such a, such a relief. I feel like now maybe I can go back to the game. I'll. I'll have to do a Twitter poll and see if people let me, let me come back because I, you know, I've been bad luck the last couple of times.

[Doug]

So it's interesting to me because obviously you look at college football very analytically and just for the people who are, who are maybe new to you here. T. Shu I just want to make sure we get it in. You, you have a newsletter. You are out talking about college football betting and other sports betting at other places just for the people who are like, man, I could tell already I like this guy. Where can they find you? Where can they get your work?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yeah, I write four times a [e-mail] through pretty much year round. I do college football, NFL, men's and women's college basketball, WNBA. So I do, I do all kinds of, of betting stuff for different sports. @vsyn.com I have my own website, tissue index.com where you can subscribe and get, get all my bets and that sort of thing there. So that's, that's where I'm at for now. And like Doug said, hopefully we'll be back together on a more permanent basis in coming years of the Tissue index.

[Doug]

Tsi, baby. So, so you, you are a fan, but you also view the sport through this very sophisticated mathematical way. Did that make it crazier for you the last four years for Ohio State? Because I'm curious, I don't know if you remember, like, did your numbers say for all four of those years that Ohio State is predicted to win? You know what I mean? That like you're, you're getting equations that are telling you something, not just being like, oh, I think Ohio State's good.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yeah. I mean Especially last year where, you know, I think they ended up closing as like a 19 and a half point favorite or something like that. I think my numbers last year had them favored by 21. So for them to lose last year was like such a gut punch and, and I was there, so that was a gut punch. I think 2023 was the only season that I actually had Michigan winning. They were, I think they ended up being a three point favorite in that game. I had them, I think by six in that game, which actually is. It ended up what. What it ended up being. So numbers were, were spot on that year. But 21 and 22 definitely had. Had Ohio State winning and I believe covering, if I recall correctly. So it has been very frustrating to, obviously them losing the game sucks, but I mean they, you know, they haven't, haven't covered or won. And prior to this year, I've pretty much bet on them every year too. Just, you know, as I'm watching the game. So I'm, I would never bet against them while I'm watching because that's just like. Yeah, I mean that's torture. But you know, you bet on them and you want them to win as a fan and, and you lose money and you lose patience. So, you know that's, that's a lose lose for sure.

[Doug]

So one of the things is Bill and I were doing our picks on our Friday show last week. We were kind of in this rivalry week anticipating a little chaos. And then it turned out that we didn't really get any chaos. The only thing was, was really at the top of the sport was Texas over Texas A and M. As you handicapped rivalry week or as you do it every year, do you still live by the numbers or is there something, you know, it's a cliche to say throw out the records. And that's not actually true. If you go back through the history of, for instance of Ohio State, Michigan, it's like, well, when one team's ranked and the other team's not, you know, like this. You just remember the huge upsets. But actually if there's a definitive talent gap, usually that plays out. So I think throughout the record is wrong. But, but from a handicapping standpoint, is rivalry week any different?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I think so. And that, that's something that's kind of part of my evolution as someone that does these numbers. And, and as a handicapper over the years, I, I remember that 2021 season in particular. I mean, I just got killed obviously. Like I had bet on Ohio State. I'm at that I'm at the Ohio State Michigan game that year. They lose, I lose a bunch of money. And it was like every other bet that I made just went. Went crazy. The numbers were not, not great. And so at that point I was like, all right, for this week, I've got to start using more art as much as the science for, for this, for this week only. Now, the other, you know, 13 weeks of the season, it's pretty much mostly, you know, 90 numbers for me. But I've learned that in rivalry week, it's, it's got to be up maybe not 50, 50, but maybe 60, 40 in favor of the numbers. But you definitely have to account for the, the intangible stuff and the unquantifiable stuff that goes into it. Now, that being said, I still had a terrible betting week last week, but the numbers overall actually were pretty good. I mean, I had Alabama -6 and a half against Auburn that, you know, they ended up winning that by seven. I had Texas covering against Texas A M. So, I mean, it wasn't all bad. I just didn't. I just happened to not bet those games. So I just, I gotta pick. Pick games a little better. But as far as the numbers, I'm. I'm pretty happy with how it's. It's turned out.

[Doug]

How did you handicap last week for Ohio State? Michigan? Do you remember what your, your number was on the Buckeyes?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I had Ohio State -10 and a half, which was about where the market was, I think. I think it closed nine and a half. So was. Was right there would have been on Ohio State -9 and a half at that point. So I, you know, I felt good about that. I actually didn't vet it here because I wasn't going to put myself through that again. But I'm happy with where the, where the number was.

[Doug]

So you. Can you just explain again for the people. There's a lot of people who are thinking, oh, man. Tissues. Back on my screen with Doug. This is all I've been waiting for. But there probably are some people who are new to you. Your tissue index, where you come up with power ratings for teams and then when they play each other, right, like you use those different ratings to compare those two teams. Like just a brief little bit about how you go about those numbers. We know it's a proprietary algorithm and you're not going to give it out here. And if you. It's one of those things, you could explain everything you do to me right now and you would be in no danger because I'm not even sure. I bet you would get one sentence in. I'd be like, I'm out. But how do you go about doing it?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yeah, I, I actually tell people, I'm like, you know, it. Even if someone stole my, the sheet that I work off of, you know, my Google sheet, like it really wouldn't matter because they wouldn't understand. I have so many crazy, you know, helper columns and things like that. But so in, in a sentence, the, the tissue index is an opponent and tempo adjusted rating system that I use for all sports. So again, tempo and, and opponent adjustments to me are the biggest, the biggest ways you can be misled looking at data. You know, like if you look at army, for instance, or a team like that and you just look at like their offensive efficiency, it's like, wow, they're a machine. And it's like, well, yeah, but they also have seven possessions a game and that sort of thing. So that's, that's one thing that can really skew data. And then the other thing, obviously, as we know in college sports especially where the schedules are so unbalanced, opponent adjustment. That's why I, I mean I'm always leading the crusade online of like, if you're, if you're posting raw stats like that, I mean that's, that's great. But to infer that like, that there's any meaning in those, it, in a sport like college football, it's just, it's very misleading because everyone plays such a different schedule. Those, those numbers are not what they seem on the surface in most cases.

[Doug]

Yeah. So I am very curious now about the answer to this question. Who is your number one power rated team in the TSI this season?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I have the Indiana Hoosiers, number one. Right now. I've got them favored by about a point and a half in Indy this weekend.

[Doug]

Is Ohio State your number two team?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yes. Yeah, it's, it's Indiana, then Ohio State, then about a two point gap and then Notre Dame is number three.

[Doug]

Okay, so this is one of those. And if people followed us at all last year, you were on. We were, we were, we were riding high and throwing money around last year, baby. You were very high on Notre Dame all last year and that if, if, if people followed you on the Fighting Irish, they would have been very happy and they would have followed you all the way to the national championship game on the Fighting Irish. I'll just let myself do a little caveat here. Why are you, why do you think your numbers are so high on Notre Dame. We know they lost the first two games of the year and they've, they've won 10 straight since. Has your, have your numbers like Notre Dame the whole way?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

No, not really. I mean the first couple of weeks, I mean their, their defense looks so, so, so bad, but I mean the last, basically the last nine, 10 weeks, they've been so much better. It's been night and day difference now again. And that's where the opponent adjustment comes into play. Because I think if you posted the raw stats comparing those time frames, people would be like, yeah, but that's because their first couple games were Miami and Texas A and M and they've played nobody since, which would be fair. But my numbers have, have accounted for that. I mean they're number two in opponent adjusted yards per play, points per play, number two in opponent adjusted. So I mean they, and some of these metrics that I look at, they're, they're very, very high.

[Doug]

Okay, so when we think about Indiana and Ohio State, I don't know. Do your numbers work comparing things season to season? Like would it make sense to say like in the history of the tissue index, these are the, the five highest rated teams overall or are things built on a particular season? And a cross season comparison doesn't really work.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

So in the past I've done that. I think the problem is the evolution of how I analyze the numbers. This year I've made some tweaks, so really and those type of things I can do in the off season because then I have to go back, take all the adjustments I've made during this season and then apply them retroactively. So I couldn't give you like a 2025 Ohio State versus you know, 2019 Ohio State or something like that yet. But I, I will be able to in the off season.

[Doug]

Do you have a sense though? Let's say this. Indiana is one, Ohio State is two. Do you think they are the best of this year? Do you think they are kind of far and above everybody else? Are they potentially, I don't want to say all time teams, but do you have a sense of how, how good your numbers think Indiana, Ohio State really are?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yeah, I mean they're, they're definitely right up there with, with some of the best teams. I'm trying to think. I know 2023 Michigan, if I recall had a power rating for me like at, right at 30. And for instance this year I've got Indiana 28.6 and Ohio State's like right at 27. So I mean they're they're right right up there within a field goal of some of those, you know, national championship teams that we've seen in the past.

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[Doug]

Your your ratings your numbers showing Indiana number one. How would things like beating Illinois by 60, winning on the road at Oregon or like are the what would those things really help in your numbers or is it really inside different kind of drive to drive play to play efficiency metrics that would drive it more than for instance those results.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

So those though both of those things would are are factored in because because I do one component of the rating system is an opponent adjusted points per game. So it's not just like oh you're beating teams by 30 points a game like that's a 30 power rating. It's it's opponent adjusted. So but I do think points per game especially for for someone like me, that's projecting totals as well. I think that's extremely helpful to do. But that's just one component. And then there's again, a bunch of other metrics like yards per play, points per play. So more of the play to play down to drive. To drive, stuff that you guys often reference on the show. So, okay, all of that, all of that blends in together. So, you know, the, the point is, and what I think you're, you're asking is like, could, could one or two results skew the numbers? And that's what I try to try to avoid. And that's why I try to incorporate, you know, multiple metrics to, to make sure that I'm not getting skewed data with, with one or two performances.

[Doug]

So I don't think there are going to be a lot of Ohio State fans this week who underestimate Indiana and try to think, I don't know, I mean, like, Ohio State kind of handled them in Ohio Stadium last year. And how good are their players really? They're a bunch of transfers up from JMU and the Mac and stuff like that. Their quarterback came from Cal. Whatever. I think, and I anticipate, and Bill and I will certainly do a big game breakdown on Thursday on this feed. I anticipate that Ohio State fans think and believe and respect the fact that Indiana is good. Your numbers say Indiana is pretty good, like you like. So however you want to analyze it. Numbers, just tissue, watch and ball. How good do you think Indiana is?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I think they're. I think they're really good. I, I wrote about this [e-mail] I think the one thing, because if someone's listening to this, like, wow, he's got Indiana projected to win the game by, you know, one or two points. I'm gonna go bet my mortgage on Indiana. Plus the five and a half. My only apprehension there, aside from being an Ohio State fan, is Indiana has really. And, and I, I understand why they've done it, but they've really, any opportunity they've gotten, they've kind of run the score up. They've. They've continued to just let it, let it loose, let it fly, to make a statement nationally, and I understand why they had to do that. And Ohio State's done that in, in some years past where they've just like, continued to put their foot down in games that they clearly are going to win. Whereas Ohio State. I compared this Ohio state team to 20, 23 Michigan in that I, I had a hard time rating that team throughout the regular season, too, because not only did they play slower and, you know, they ran the ball a lot and that sort of thing, but they also were getting a lot of guys involved in the game. You've got a lot of backups in, in the second quarter, getting meaningful reps. And Ohio State's done the same thing this year. So the fact these teams are neck and neck in the ratings and that's how they've approached their seasons makes me understand why Ohio State is a five and a half point favorite. Because I think if Ohio State were to go balls to the wall for four quarters against their schedule this year, you know, they would have really blown some teams out, but they didn't want to do that. They wanted to, to limit snaps and, and have guys fresh for this postseason run. So now that we're here, I'm curious how, how that's going to look when they are not, you know, putting Riley Pettigon in, in the second series of the game.

[Doug]

Yeah. Yeah, that's, that's very interesting and I agree with you. The idea of Kurt Signetti is trying to make a point. A lot of people thought maybe the Hoosiers last year were a bit of a fluke or a product of their schedule and he wants to prove that they are not. He is building something from the ground up where Ohio State is maintaining something and that like Ryan Day is in maintenance mode. And he's, I mean, we all know that anybody watching or listening to this knows the idea of playing slow and, and trying to limit the wear and tear on players. And Kurt Signetti is in prove it mode. And so now we now reach the, the culmination of this where, you know, and I've obviously been asking people about this and, and we've heard fans on our sub stack. By the way, if you want to join us on substack, billanddugosu.substack.com we'd love to have you come join us. And you can sign up for a month if you want and get a bunch of coverage as Ohio State chases a second straight national championship. But like, it, it is go time. But it's not quite all the way go time because if Ohio's like the, the loser on Saturday is not done and the loser on Saturday is not even really affected that much. So I will be curious, like, I think Indiana and when I asked Kurt Signetti about it, Chris Signetti seemed to indicate like they are in go mode. They are in prove it mode still. And the idea, honestly and I, I have certainly not researched this, but I would imagine it's very possible that if Indiana beats Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game on Saturday in a 1, 2 matchup of the two only undefeated teams in college football, it will be the greatest win in Indiana history.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I would, I would imagine so until the next one.

[Doug]

Until, until they would win the national championship. But I even think beating Ohio State for the Big Ten championship and what Ohio State has meant in that conference would mean even more than like Indiana's first round win. You know, if they're the three seed and they, they play the six seed in the first round and they beat Texas A and M or whatever. Right. Like, yes, that would be a huge playoff win, but beating Ohio State for the Big Ten championship would still mean more. So that is going to be a thing. Whereas for Ohio State, of course they want to win, but it's not that beating Indiana would not be the greatest win in Ohio State history. And so I do, I don't know how you factor that into an analysis tissue, but I don't think there's much doubt that it's all go. It's all gas for Indiana on Saturday night. And I think for Ohio State, it's a lot of gas. It's mostly gas. But they can't match what it means to the Hoosiers. They can't.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

No, no, certainly not. I think the one thing that, that would factor into my analysis with this game would be, yes, this isn't like full go time because it's not the playoff, but also they're going to have a month off probably, regardless of what happens. So I think, I think they can kind of let it hang out a little bit more. But obviously the, the other factor here that I wrote about today is, is there a let. I mean, is there a letdown spot here for Ohio State after such a huge emotional win? You know, they get caught in Ann Arbor late Saturday night, that, that sort of thing, which, I mean, who am I telling? The guy that sat there and waited for him for four hours. But so I just, I, I would think there's not a letdown. I mean, Ryan Day's had this team like, so focused all season, but I think it would be to a degree understandable if they didn't quite have their A game next week after.

[Doug]

Yeah.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

After the build up to this last Michigan game and how that game went.

[Doug]

Yeah. And Indiana played its rivalry game, but no offense to Purdue, but come on. So like, they, they were not, they did not extend themselves in the same way. So I would like to now welcome you into a college football investigation. And it is about time that somebody has had the courage to get to the bottom of the most pressing question in this sport. And that question is, is the SEC mid? And just, I can shout it from the rooftops and I can make SEC fans angry every weekend on social media. And I can see them, I can see them. They watch college football on Saturday and they go to church on Sunday morning and they get home and then they see my tweet and, and they get mad and they send me tweets. And that warms my heart because I don't just say it, I believe it. I do think the SEC is mid, but I'm just a man. You're a man with a formula. Which team is your highest ranked SEC team in the tissue index?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I have Georgia, which is 1/10 of a point ahead of Alabama at number seven. Georgia, 7, Alabama 8, Vanderbilt, 9aM10. So you know, they, they still occupy four spots of my top 10, but they're the bottom four spots whereas the, the top six is Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Oregon and Miami.

[Doug]

Wow. So that gives me tremendous joy because the idea that, you know, I'm, I'm, I said something, I've said something on shows that I think the five best teams very well. And this is to me is like, I understand Notre Dame's preseason losses and that they lost to an SEC team, not preseason, but non conference. And of course that matters. Of course that counts. But how they're playing right now and how dangerous they are, I think in the, in the playoff, I do think it's Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame and Texas Tech. And I would not put an SEC team in my top five. And even Georgia, when you look at Georgia and Pitt ran up and down the field on that terrible Georgia Tech defense and Georgia had trouble. And you look at the statistical measures of Georgia's defense and they usually typically in this era been a top 10 defense. A lot of the things that I look at, they're not a top 10 defense this year. And so I, this feels real to me. And this has to go into like, of course, like I get it, there's some depth there. You can't deny that that's four straight teams, seven through 10. But there's nobody in the top six tissue. And so I think I would like to conclude this investigation by saying, yes, the SEC is mid and the tissue index said it.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I'm fine with that. I'll co sign that.

[Doug]

Like, isn't it strange? I Mean, I can't imagine that there ever has been a time in TSI where there was no SEC team in the top six.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Not, not that I can call off the top of my head for sure. I mean, you. I would imagine going back, I mean, even 20 years. I mean, you're talking Georgia, Alabama, LSU. I mean, one of those teams is, has generally been up there. So, yeah, this is definitely new. New territory, I think.

[Doug]

Yeah. So. And that idea again, that they want to puff up, that like, they think their teams play the toughest schedule and it's so hard to get through the sec. This is opponent adjusted. This is opponent adjusted. And of course, we understand that the, Just the way the Big Ten schedule fell, that, that Ohio State did play Oregon and Ohio State didn't play Indiana, and the Penn State was a preseason national title contender and wound up being six and six. And so we understand that. But this is taking that into account. Tissue. This is taking that into account. And you have Ohio State 2 and Georgia 7, for instance. This is whatever the SEC would throw at you, your formula accounts for.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yep. Yeah. And I mean, as an Ohio State fan looking at potential, you know, playoff matchups, I would much rather play Georgia or Alabama or A M or someone like that than I would Notre Dame early, you know, because Notre Dame is going to end up being like an 8, 9 seed, probably, if they get in. So I don't. I would rather not see that in the first round. I'd much rather play Georgia or someone in the first round.

[Doug]

Yeah, no, I agree with that.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

In the quarterfinals.

[Doug]

I'm intrigued by Miami at 6. That reality and the fact that Miami at the moment seems like it's going to have a very tough time getting into the playoff. Do you think that is a mistake? The committee is wrong.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

If the committee. Because we, We've heard the committee say they want the best. They're. That they're chosen to pick the 12 best teams. And if that is correct, by my numbers, Miami easily fits in that. Now, the problem is we know that they don't actually just pick the best. And, and I, and I understand that. I, I'm not one that thinks it should just be a straight power rating, you know, in the playoff because otherwise, what are we playing the season for? I, I get that, but I mean, you lost to Louisville, which, And they're not, they're not very good. I, I don't even see them. I gotta scroll to even find them in the ratings. So.

[Doug]

Yeah.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

You know, when, when the games against teams that are bad, I don't I don't know what to tell you.

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[Doug]

Is there somebody as we think about the playoff, is there a team that you would particularly be on alert for? Is it Notre Dame? Is it someone like Texas Tech? I don't know if there might be a team that maybe has been working its way up your ratings at some point. Like outside of Ohio State and Indiana, who in all the betting markets are the clear favorites? Who else is is really interesting to you and I'm curious if your answer is Notre Dame.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I mean Notre Dame definitely would be at at the top of my list as far as a team that's like for sure not going to get a first round buy and is going to have to play you know four games to win a national championship. Like I Notre Dame was definitely the number one team for me looking through Problem is I don't know all the conference. Let's see. Yeah Notre Dame would be one. I mean Texas Tech right up there as as well in Oregon. We know we know what Oregon's capable of. I think I Just, I don't think the consistency's been there. And Indiana went to their place and dominated that game. So Oregon doesn't scare me as much, you know, now as maybe they would have coming into the season, you know, looking at potential playoff matchups. But Notre Dame and Texas Tech would probably be my top two outside of. Outside of Indiana.

[Doug]

Okay. And so when you think about this as an Ohio State fan and you look inside your numbers, but also what you've seen watching the Buckeyes, how do you feel about this opportunity for Ohio State to repeat as national champions for the first time in its history? Do you. Do you think that would. I know your numbers right now, have Indiana number one. So would you say. Would you consider Indiana at the moment the national title favorite? Would you still consider Ohio State? That. Do you think that's a close coin flip? Do you think it's Ohio State and Indiana far above everybody else? Like, if you were sitting down to really bet on this, what do you think the chances are of the Buckeyes repeating?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I mean, I, I think they have a really, really good chance. I think. I think their floor is just so high with, with that defense and, you know, the one. Well, really, the two knocks on them throughout the season have been the run game and the offensive line, and both of those things looked really, really good on Saturday. I mean, I know Michigan's not world beaters this year, but I thought there was tangible improvement in the offensive line and in the run game, not just with Bo Jackson, but I thought even Isaiah west had some good runs. Even. I mean, C.J. donaldson, he's got his faults, but he, he even had a couple runs where I was like, oh, okay, C.J. that was, that was a nice run. Like, I, I think it's coming together for them. I think their strategy has. It paid off last year, I think it's. It's paying dividends already this year. So, I mean, I think the only team that truly can stop them is. Is themselves. And that's, you know, that seemed to be more of a Michigan problem than anything else. And, and Ryan Day is kind of slain that dragon now. So as long as they play their game and even put forth, I think, a B plus, a minus effort, I think they're. They're better than everyone else. The numbers have them in Indiana neck and neck. And if you're going to tell me these teams meet in the playoff or for the national championship, I'm gonna. I'm definitely going to take the team that's already done it, that has Way more, you know, on paper talent than, than Indiana. They're going to have way more draft picks. So to me, that's the tiebreaker. I, I don't think that's a way you can analyze the sport, you know, out of at a first glance. But if you're going to tell me these, these teams metrics are similar, I would take the team with those things, supporting it as well.

[Doug]

Yeah, so last thing here, you just posted this on social media and we hope everybody follows you. AT T Shoe index on Twitter, your ratings. Indiana 26, 24 over Ohio State. And this is like, it's, it's, it's. Again, this is what your numbers are saying, but like that really is a score to you, right? Like the way that you've designed the tissue index is when you're comparing these teams, it's not a rating of 26 versus a rating of 24. Like that's enough of a score prediction for you, is that correct?

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yep, that's right. So I've got The total around 49 and a half. 50 with, with Indiana is about a one and a half point favorite.

[Doug]

Okay, so just looking quickly at some other conference championship games. Texas Tech over BYU 3120. These teams met earlier in the regular season. Again, you, you have Texas Tech number fifth. This just feels like you think that your numbers say Texas, Texas cut above byu.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yeah, yeah, definitely. I, I would be surprised if, if BYU keeps that one, you know, super close.

[Doug]

Okay. ACC championship game, seven and five. Duke is in it. A lot of people are mad about that. You have Virginia 30, Duke 28. You know, Duke went out and played. I know people could be like, oh, they lost his whole lane. They lost to UConn. Well, like Tulane and UConn are actually like pretty decent teams this year. They also lost to Illinois. You know, that's like Tulane might make the playoff and UConn won, what, like nine games. So it's not like they went out and, and, and lost to Florida State, for God's sake. Your numbers, like, as much as people might be inclined to disrespect Duke, your numbers are saying this is a close game. Yeah.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yeah, I think so. Duke, you know, throughout the, the season, as I'm, you know, week to week looking, looking for who I'm gonna bet on. Duke was never a team I was scared to bet on because I really like their quarterback and, and their offense is capable of putting up numbers. And I think you think of a Manny Diaz team and you think just all defense, but their defense has Actually not been great. Their offense has been pretty explosive at times in the past game. So I, Duke is definitely capable and Virginia has been super inconsistent too. This, this is like just a hilarious conference championship matchup in my opinion.

[Doug]

Yeah, yeah, no, I agree. And then the last one, Georgia, Alabama in the SEC championship. We know Alabama won the head to head matchup during the regular season, but Alabama, I just, it feels like has just been like waiting for teams to get them and Oklahoma finally did get them. They were, it was there for the taking for Auburn on Saturday night. And Auburn fumbles late. Your numbers are saying it's a toss up. You said you have Georgia 7 and Bama 8 in your ratings. Like were you, are you surprised by that at all that that's where your numbers came out or is that, does that feel right to you? Like. Yeah, no, I like this is. Bama and Georgia are on the same level and that level is, you know, tier two in college football. Cut below the best teams in the north, but they're very similar.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Yeah. You know, if you'd asked me this a week ago, I would have said like, I don't, I don't know about that. I think Georgia is a lot better. But then Georgia goes out against Georgia Tech last week and can't do anything on offense. So, so now I think it feels about right. I think it's two teams that are going to have to really execute. You know, I don't think either one has a huge upper hand here. You know, obviously this being a rivalry game in a conference championship. Alabama's kind of owns Kirby and Georgia. I know a lot of that was, you know, saving wins. But even, even recently Alabama's kind of gotten the better of them. So curious to see, to see how that goes. I did bet the over in that game. I do think it'll go over the total. I, I looked one, one stat here that I, I looked up the SEC championship game in the last five years has averaged 66 and a half points per game. So those have, have tended to get points ease. I'm playing the over there.

[Doug]

Okay. I will say tissue. I, you know, I made some, some preseason bets and I lost a lot of them but I was very proud of one. I did a three team parlay on totals. I did North Carolina under and Utah and Minnesota over and that hit nice like +325. And that was just like, that was the encapsulation of, of Doug the Better. I think I bet $5 on it and won like $18 or something and it Just gave me that North Carolina under hit in like October. It brought me such great joy. And then Utah went over easily and then Minnesota had to win its last. I think they were, I think it was six and a half. They had to win their last game against Minnesota to make sure they hit the, against Wisconsin to hit that over. But it just made me think of man, it just made me like it maybe excited to cash a, a 20 bet 20 win which is like a mega win for me. But also it just means like I, I think tissue would, would, would be a little proud, little Dougie.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

I'm definitely proud. Definitely proud. I, I haven't graded all of my season win totals yet because I've been doing a million things, but I did, I was happy that Iowa destroyed Nebraska last week because I, I bet Nebraska under seven and a half wins and like everyone I know, a bunch of my Visa colleagues were on the over. No, I got a little lucky that Dylan Raola got hurt of course, but I'll take the cash nonetheless.

[Doug]

Yeah, there you go. Matt Rule delivering for you Tissue man. It's just, just like old times. You know what I'm saying? Just like old times.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Like old times. I love it. I love it anytime. Like, like I told you, I owe oh everything to, to you getting me to this point. So I'm always happy to make time and like I said, hopefully we can, can get together more permanently next next year or in years coming.

[Doug]

Yeah, for sure. The people love you. We're so glad when we get to hang out and talk a little ball. Talk a little betting. He's the great Tyler Shoemaker. Find him. Find the tissue index. It's just, and the thing about you that I like tissue is like you have this stuff out there, you're writing for Visa and you have the tissue index and you have preseason things that people can buy. But you are just very generous with putting stuff out on social media and just saying like, hey, I gotta play for you. You know, and that's one of those where, you know, I, I think, you know, some people don't want to do it. I, I get a great amount of joy out of two and three dollar bets. And sometimes when like a tissue special just crosses my timeline, I'm like, that's good enough for me. Let's ride with that $2, baby. And then that $81 in my pocket after the fact just feels so sweet.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

You know, I, I made a joke the other day, I need to just only start betting the free ones I give out on Twitter because those hit it like 80%. And the ones that I've bet privately have have tanked this year. So I think that's my new betting strategy. The ones I was going to give away for free. Just bet those only and I'll be fine.

[Doug]

Yeah, the free ones from Tissue. So great to see you brother. Hope you had a great Thanksgiving with the family. Happy holidays ahead and I'm sure we will talk soon. Tyler Shoemaker, thanks for joining us.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Happy holidays to you. Thanks.

[Doug]

That'll wrap it up here on the Bill and Doug Show.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

The holidays mean more travel, more shopping.

[Doug]

More time online and more personal info in more places that could expose you.

[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

More to identity theft.

[Doug]

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[Tyler Shoemaker (Tissue)]

Get more holiday fun and less holiday.

[Doug]

Worry with lifelong save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com Specialoffer terms apply.

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