The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State vs. Indiana Power Ratings, Michigan Reaction, and No SEC Teams in Top 6 (with Tyler Shoemaker)

Podcast: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Host: Blue Wire
Guests: Doug Lesmerises, Bill Landis, Tyler Shoemaker “Tissue”
Date: December 2, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode features Doug and Bill joined by long-time friend and college football handicapper Tyler Shoemaker (“Tissue”). The trio dives into Tyler’s unique power ratings heading into conference championship week, particularly examining Ohio State and Indiana at the top of his metrics, the fallout and analytical takeaways from Rivalry Week (especially Michigan-Ohio State), the surprising lack of SEC teams in the top six, and looks at how analytics intersect with the emotional side of fandom and big-game expectations. The crew also discusses their personal approaches to betting, recaps season-long trends, explores the narratives around program approaches (Indiana’s “prove it” vs. Ohio State maintenance), and debates playoff contenders through the lens of the Tissue Index.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Tyler Shoemaker’s Background & Approach

• Tyler’s Credentials: Not just a lifelong Buckeye fan, Tyler is a professional handicapper and founder of the “Tissue Index” power ratings used on VSiN.com and his own site.
• Tissue Index Methodology:
  • Opponent and tempo-adjusted, applying these principles across all sports.
  • Emphasizes that unadjusted, “raw” stats are misleading in NCAA football due to imbalanced schedules and play style differences.
  • Multiple metrics (e.g., opponent-adjusted points per game, yards per play) feed into ratings to avoid getting overly influenced by outlier games.

“I always lead the crusade online of like, if you’re posting raw stats… that’s great, but to infer that there’s any meaning in those, in a sport like college football, it’s just, it’s very misleading.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [09:43]

2. A Buckeye Fan’s Emotional Journey

• Relief after Win Over Michigan:
  • Tyler describes the 2025 rivalry win as “such a relief… you could exhale.”
  • In previous years, his numbers mostly favored Ohio State, so upsets felt like “gut punches”—especially when losing money betting as both a fan and an analyst.

"You bet on them and you want them to win as a fan, and you lose money and you lose patience. So you know that’s a lose-lose for sure."
—Tyler Shoemaker, [05:02]

3. Rivalry Week and the Role of Human Factors in Handicapping

• Rivalry Week Chaos?:
  • Doug asks if you should “throw out the records” during rivalry week.
  • Tyler’s evolved to factor in more “art” alongside analytics, making it about 60% numbers, 40% intangibles that week.
  • Even so, his 2025 betting week was “terrible,” but his numbers generally held up.

"I’ve learned that in rivalry week, it’s gotta be maybe not 50/50, but maybe 60/40 in favor of the numbers. But you definitely have to account for the intangible stuff."
—Tyler Shoemaker, [06:40]

4. Explaining the Tissue Index (TSI)

• How It Works:
  • A proprietary, opponent- and tempo-adjusted model combining metrics like points per game, yards per play, points per play, and drive-by-drive efficiency.
  • “Blends together” to avoid data skew from outlier results.
  • Results can be interpreted as projected scores for games.

5. 2025 Power Ratings: Indiana #1, Ohio State #2

• Current TSI Top Three:
  1. Indiana
  2. Ohio State (about two points behind)
  3. Notre Dame

"Indiana, then Ohio State, then about a two-point gap and then Notre Dame is number three."
—Tyler Shoemaker, [10:35]

• Notre Dame’s Resurgence:
  • Rough first two games, but metrics now show them near the top in opponent-adjusted yards per play and points per play.

6. Are Indiana and Ohio State Historically Good?

• Both close to 2023 Michigan’s national championship power rating (30).
• Indiana: 28.6, Ohio State: 27 — “within a field goal of some of those national champions.”

7. What Drives the TSI Numbers for Indiana?

• Indiana’s big wins (e.g., beating Illinois by 60, winning at Oregon) do matter, but advantage comes from broader play-by-play efficiency and opponent adjustment.
• TSI designed to be robust against single-game outliers.

“Could one or two results skew the numbers... That’s what I try to avoid. That’s why I incorporate multiple metrics.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [16:47]

8. Indiana vs. Ohio State: Perception, Motivation, and Preview

• Indiana has “run up the score,” trying to prove themselves, which gets picked up by metrics.
• Ohio State: “maintenance” mode, limiting player snaps for postseason freshness.
• Indiana is "all gas" in motivation; for Ohio State, "it’s a lot of gas… but they can’t match what it means to the Hoosiers."
• Speculation that Indiana-Ohio State for the Big Ten title could be the “greatest win in Indiana history.”

“Kurt Signetti is trying to make a point… he wants to prove they are not a fluke… Ohio State is maintaining something.”
—Doug, [19:24]

9. Emotional and Strategic Factors Going Into the Championship

• Potential for Ohio State letdown after beating Michigan, but a long break following the game reduces risk.
• Analysis considers both the scheduling/emotional context and analytics.

10. The Great SEC Debate: Is the SEC “Mid”?

• Per TSI, no SEC team in the top six, unprecedented in recent memory.
• Top SEC team: Georgia #7, followed closely by Alabama, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M (all in 7–10).
• Top six: Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Texas Tech, Oregon, Miami.

“Yes, the SEC is mid and the Tissue Index said it.”
—Doug, [25:36]

"I’m fine with that. I’ll co-sign that.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [25:40]

11. Committee Debates and the Playoff Field

• Miami is #6 in TSI but unlikely for the playoff—Tyler says committee “doesn’t actually just pick the best.”
• Notre Dame and Texas Tech seen as teams to avoid in the playoff, based on how strongly they’ve trended in the metrics.

“If the committee...wants the 12 best teams, Miami easily fits in that. The problem is we know they don’t just pick the best.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [27:29]

12. Conference Title Game Projections

• Big Ten: Indiana 26, Ohio State 24 (total ~50)
• Big 12: Texas Tech over BYU 31–20
• ACC: Virginia 30, Duke 28 (calls matchup “hilarious”)
• SEC: Georgia-Bama: basically a toss-up; after Georgia’s struggles with Georgia Tech, Tyler sees both as “tier two” teams, far behind the northern powers; leans Over on total.

13. Betting Philosophy and Personal Stories

• Both Tyler and Doug discuss betting small amounts for fun, the satisfaction in small wins, and the importance of transparent, accessible content for the community.

"Sometimes when a Tissue special just crosses my timeline, I’m like, that’s good enough for me. Let’s ride with that $2, baby."
—Doug, [39:30]

“I need to just only start betting the free ones I give out on Twitter because those hit at like 80%.”
—Tyler Shoemaker, [39:44]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• [04:38] Tyler Shoemaker: “Numbers were spot on that year…[but] I would never bet against [Ohio State] while I’m watching because that’s just like…torture.”
• [10:13] Doug: “Who is your number one power-rated team in the TSI this season?”
• [10:25] Tyler Shoemaker: “The Indiana Hoosiers.”
• [13:41] Tyler Shoemaker: “They’re right up there within a field goal of some of those national championship teams that we’ve seen in the past.”
• [21:52] Doug: “It’s all go. It’s all gas for Indiana on Saturday night. And I think for Ohio State, it’s a lot of gas…But they can’t match what it means to the Hoosiers. They can’t.”
• [25:36] Doug: “Yes, the SEC is mid and the Tissue Index said it.”
• [25:40] Tyler Shoemaker: “I’m fine with that. I’ll co-sign that.”
• [33:58] Doug: “This is like…it’s…enough of a score prediction for you, is that correct?” / Tyler: “Yep, that’s right. So I’ve got the total around 49 and a half, 50 with Indiana about a one-and-a-half point favorite.”
• [35:04] Tyler Shoemaker: “Duke was never a team I was scared to bet on because I really like their quarterback…and their offense is capable of putting up numbers.”

Important Timestamps

• [01:36]–[04:38]: Introduction, Tyler’s background, and his emotional take after the Buckeyes’ win.
• [06:29]–[08:15]: How rivalry week changes the handicapping process and balance between analytics and intangibles.
• [08:58]–[10:13]: Detailed explanation of the Tissue Index and its uniqueness.
• [10:13]–[13:16]: 2025 ratings—Indiana #1, Ohio State #2—and historical context.
• [16:03]–[16:56]: Deep dive: what drives Indiana’s high power rating in the TSI.
• [17:45]–[22:46]: Team motivation, program strategy narratives, and psychological context ahead of the Big Ten title game.
• [23:54]–[26:06]: The 'is the SEC mid?' investigation—SEC teams outside TSI’s top six. Reaction to Doug’s theory and conference landscape narrative.
• [27:29]–[29:48]: Playoff teams and the committee’s selection versus true “best teams” by analytics.
• [30:17]–[31:08]: Notre Dame and Texas Tech as dangerous playoff teams.
• [31:50]–[34:05]: Handicapping Ohio State’s chances to repeat, and comparing on-paper equality vs. “proven” talent.
• [34:22]–[37:12]: Conference title game projections and reasoning, with a spotlight on the toss-up nature of Georgia-Bama.
• [38:17]–end: Personal betting anecdotes, philosophy, and the feel-good side of small-stakes gambling.

Summary Takeaways for New Listeners

• Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI is among the most sophisticated, opponent- and tempo-adjusted power ratings in the sport—currently crowning Indiana as #1, slightly ahead of Ohio State.
• The crew gives a nuanced look at how numbers and intangibles collide, especially in big games and rivalry weeks, and how historical context and program motivation impact both analytics and fan energy.
• The SEC, by current TSI numbers, is having an “off year”—a fact that’s both a data story and a narrative win for those fighting Southern football bias.
• Notre Dame, Texas Tech, and Miami look like strong playoff threats by the numbers, even if current committee rankings might obscure their true strength.
• The discussions blend analytical rigor, transparency, and the fun, communal spirit of being a college football fan—and bettor—today.

For more TSI picks and insights, follow Tyler Shoemaker on Twitter @TShoeIndex and check out both the VSiN podcast and billanddugosu.substack.com.