← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Ohio State vs. Miami Big Game Breakdown and Picks for Cotton Bowl quarterfinal
01:31:42
It's time to dig into the Cotton Bowl showdown between Ohio State and Miami as Doug Lesmerises and Bill Landis break down and make picks for this College Football Playoff quarterfinal on New Year's Eve.
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. Doug Lamres and Bill Landis here at the Cotton Hole for your big game breakdown of the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Miami Hurricanes before the New Year's Eve showdown in the college football quarterfinal. Landis. We're going to break down both sides of the ball, and then we're going to make picks at the end. Ohio State favor by nine and a half.
- [00:27]
B
Should we just make picks now? When we get right into it.
- [00:31]
A
Let'S make a pick in, like, 110 minutes.
- [00:33]
B
Okay. Okay, we can do that.
- [00:37]
A
I think this is gonna be a fun game. I think everybody sees it kind of the same way, which then sometimes is like, does that mean everybody's wrong? Does that mean everybody's right? Are there. Are we gonna maneuver in here and find new things that nobody is talking about?
- [00:55]
B
Yeah, I don't know. I just have a really hard time seeing this game, like, get loose in terms of it being, like, high scoring. I don't know. It's interesting to, like, look at some of the, like, the underlying numbers for both teams. Ohio State and Miami are quite comparable on both sides of the ball in terms of, like, how successful they are, how explosive they are. But I just. I just don't know that that means suddenly these two offenses are going to go out there and start bombing it on what have been two very good defenses. So I feel like everyone's hunch is sort of, like, low scoring and close, and I. I would think I would just be really surprised if it's anything other than that.
- [01:33]
A
Yeah, I think that's right. Sometimes you get surprised. I don't think there's a 4137 lurking inside this game.
- [01:39]
B
No, I mean. I mean, they happen in these games, right? Like, the Ohio State, Georgia game got super high scoring. I don't know that anybody was necessarily expecting that, but even think about, like, Ohio State's playoff run last year, of course, it, like, ran through Tennessee and Oregon, but then when it got to that Texas game here in Dallas, like, that was a bit of a rock fight between. Between two teams that were kind of similar, but also defense first. Like, I just. I just really feel like we're going to see a bit of a repeat of last year's Cotton Bowl.
- [02:05]
A
Ohio State holds a 3:2 series lead in its history against Miami. These teams first played each other in 1977 in Columbus. Ohio State 1. They played in the Kickoff Classic in New Jersey to open the 1999 season. Then, of course, the national championship at the end of the 2002 season. Then they split a home and home. Ohio State won at home in 2010. Miami won at home in 2011. And that is the last time these teams played 14 seasons ago. Again, the line is nine and a half. Ohio State is favored. The over under is 41 and a half. When you look at what these teams average, Ohio State is 16th in the nation in points per game at 34.9. Miami is 28 at 32.2. Ohio State's defense is first in the nation, giving up just 8.2 points per game. Miami is fourth, giving up 13 points per game. As you're saying, two defense, first teams.
- [03:00]
B
Miami's defense is legit. Like I really do. I don't think it's the best defense at Ohio State has seen because they just played my. Or played Indiana, but I think it's. It's Indiana, it's Miami. And then I think there might actually be like a pretty significant drop off to the next best defense that Ohio State has seen. So like, I think, I think people are aware of that. They're aware of the talent that Miami has defensively. But I'm just a little, I don't know, like cautious toward the idea of Ohio State's had so much time to prepare for this, get ready for offensive fireworks. I'm not saying it can't happen, but I want to show like proper deference, I think, to a Miami defense that I think has been among the best in the country this year by the.
- [03:40]
A
FBI rankings that we like to cite a lot of the time. It's a drive to drive metric. Ohio State is second in the country.
- [03:45]
B
Country.
- [03:45]
A
Ohio State is first defensively, ninth offensively. Miami is eighth in the country. Miami is sixth defensive, defensively, 22nd on offense. Can I go first?
- [04:00]
B
Sure.
- [04:00]
A
Yeah. Okay. I have Miami offense versus Ohio State defense.
- [04:06]
B
Yes.
- [04:06]
A
And then you have the opposite thing. We always like to double check ourselves on camera to make sure that we didn't study the same side of the ball. Can I make a statement first about Miami as a whole? Miami plays in a conference of lunatics.
- [04:23]
B
They really do.
- [04:24]
A
You start diving in, you just start watching ACC football and you were like, what is going on over here?
- [04:29]
B
Yeah, it's like, I feel like you still be able to like, has the ace. The acc I think has like sort of become action.
- [04:39]
A
Right.
- [04:39]
B
It's just like the silliness that happens that used to happen in weeknight Mac games, now just happens on a weekly basis in the ACC on Saturdays.
- [04:47]
A
Yeah, it's action they don't even need to make. It's just action.
- [04:52]
B
It's entertaining, but insane.
- [04:54]
A
I do think, as we spend most of our time watching Big Ten football now, I really do think the ACC and the Big 12 are just both a little loose. They. They. In the Big 12, there are two big schools left, Texas and Oklahoma left. And in the acc, like, the big schools kind of fell off a cliff because that was. That was Clemson, that was Florida State once upon a time. Now Miami is back from that, right? Yeah, but they're not. They're big dogs. The Big Dogs aren't quite at the level of the Big Dogs in the SEC and the Big Dogs in the Big Ten. And then I think what happens, because I think there's a perception around Miami that is based kind of on one thing that I want to run by you, and it is they like six big guys. And yeah, in that conference, I think that can stand out. And I think it's similar for Texas Tech with that defense that Texas Tech bought, right? That. Yeah, they have like, you know, they bought an offensive line, too. But Texas. Texas is even based more on the defense that you. You do something. And it's a conference where, like, there's maybe some crazy quarterback play and there's some offensive guys who can do some stuff, but there's not a ton of big, physical dudes. And so if you have a team like that, it can stand out. And I think that is the perception, and I think it's correct of Miami in that context. Yeah, I think in the acc, week to week, that's what they are. But I think as you then apply that as they come out into the world, here's the big. Here's the big guys.
- [06:32]
B
Say Francis, Maui Noah.
- [06:34]
A
Maui Noah, the right tackle, is 66335. He's first team, all ACC, so he's big. The left tackle, Markel bell, he was third team, all acc. He's 69345. He's a house.
- [06:47]
B
He's like Dejuan Jones. Yeah.
- [06:48]
A
Yes. That's who he is. He is so big. You have to, like, double check yourself. Am I looking at this right?
- [06:54]
B
Yes.
- [06:55]
A
Inez Cooper, who's one of their offensive guards, he's 663-45. He's second team, all ACC. He's also very big. So they have three gigantic offensive linemen who were first team, second team, or third team, all ACC. Right. And then on the defensive line, they have Ahmed Moton, who's six three, 300, but actually that's smaller than Kaden McDonald that's 26 pounds lighter than Kaden McDonald at defensive tackle. And then they have these two awesome defensive ends that we'll get to on your side of the ball. And Bane and Messador, who are actually smaller than Kenyatta Jackson and are kind of like Kaden Curry sized. And Kaden Curry is not gigantic. But there's. I think there's a. There's a perception of them, of being like these hulking game destroyers.
- [07:36]
B
I will say, like, we did not. We did not do much at Miami's portion of media day because we were doing a podcast, and then it was, like, practically over by the time we finished. But just walking around, I did think to myself, huh? Ruben Bane and Akeem Mazador are not as big as I thought they'd be.
- [07:52]
A
And then what else did you say?
- [07:55]
B
Miami is not a particularly big football team.
- [07:59]
A
It is not a walk off the bus. You compared it to, for instance, 2014 Alabama, when. When we were at practices for that semifinal between Ohio State and Alabama, you could look at Alabama and be like.
- [08:11]
B
I don't know about this. Yeah. I mean, like, Urban Meyer thought that when he looked at Alabama in 2012, when he was taking the Ohio State job and said, like, we don't look like that.
- [08:19]
A
Yes.
- [08:20]
B
And that was still apparent. 14 in Ohio State obviously won that game. But it's. It's just like a. It's a thing that you just sort of contributes to your overall thoughts on the game. Like, I think there are times when Ohio State can get outside of the Big Ten and look a little physically disadvantaged. And I have. I don't know that I expected that when, like, comparing Ohio State to Miami, but maybe I did a little bit. And then when I saw Miami, I was like, no, that's not really what this is.
- [08:46]
A
Because it's actually happening to Miami.
- [08:48]
B
Yeah.
- [08:49]
A
Because you are in your context and you are viewed a certain way, and then you go out, which was the whole thing for Ohio State for 20 years. In their context, they're a certain thing. They're physical and they're athletic and they're dominant. And then they get out and it's like, oh, no, there's another level to this.
- [09:03]
B
Yeah.
- [09:04]
A
And I think that might be happening right now to Miami. And that doesn't mean that that's where Miami is stuck. That does not mean where Miami is going to be. But this is a step for Miami. Miami is playing the biggest games this program has played in 24 years. Right. This program is going somewhere, but it is not there. And so along the way you start gathering pieces. But I do think, and again, we know we're talking to primarily an Ohio State audience here. I think perhaps the primary discussion around this game has been, man, Miami in the trenches. Like, watch out. And it's, it's true they have some guys, but I'm not, it's not, it's not every single guy on both sides of the line. And then it kind of ends there. And by the way, you know who's big? Sonny Stiles is big.
- [09:52]
B
Yeah.
- [09:53]
A
You know who's big? Orville Reese, who looks like he's wearing a two by four across his shoulders. You know who's big?
- [09:58]
B
Like Jeremiah Smith.
- [10:00]
A
Yes.
- [10:01]
B
Carnell Tate. Yeah.
- [10:03]
A
So, yeah, I, I, I, I think we do wanna, it's not alleged because I don't think Ohio State fans are like, well, that's it, they're big, we can't win. That's what, not what Ohio State fans are thinking. But, but if you have a certain impression of this game, I think we would like to walk you back two steps on that.
- [10:17]
B
I think that is like, I don't know if it is the entirety of the national narrative that is forming around this game, but as I see people entertaining the idea of Miami winning this game as nine and a half point underdogs, that's where they start. Yeah, that Miami is bigger and more physical in the trenches than Ohio State is. And at the very least, I guess like the bigger part is probably a little overstated. They are a very physical team. That, that much is true if you watch them play. But this is not a physical mismatch, I don't think.
- [10:45]
A
No, I think that is correct. And so let's start on the Miami offensive line as we start on this side of the ball, Miami offense versus Ohio State defense. I, I also, I don't know that I get the impression from watching them that they're just like road grading you and that when they get like going in the run game that they are just like moving the line of scrimmage 3 yards and then dominating you. And I think you can see that happen. I mean, I think sometimes Michigan in its run at its best would do that to you. Sometimes.
- [11:16]
B
Yeah, like they're 41st in line yards, which is like not a exact science to kind of calculate what you're talking about. But like, they are, they're big, they're, they're physical, they do move people, but they're not like, yeah, I don't know that they're running you over on every play.
- [11:29]
A
This isn't the Joe Moore award winning offensive line.
- [11:31]
B
No.
- [11:32]
A
And again, I do think you can, you can come out of the Big Ten and in a Big Ten that has programs like Iowa and programs like Penn State and programs like Michigan and programs that have an offensive line identity, like, that's nothing new. Like, you have to deal with this kind of thing all the time.
- [11:49]
B
So I do think that's how Miami sees itself though, with Mario Cristobal being a former lineman.
- [11:54]
A
I think Miami sees itself like that. And I think part of the analysis of this game is wrapped in that. Yeah, but we're not in the ACC anymore, right?
- [12:03]
B
I think that's right.
- [12:03]
A
You know Markel Bell, he's dejuan Jones. You're right. He's dejuan Jones. If you have not watched a ton of Miami, you will be taken aback by his size.
- [12:14]
B
Large fellow. Yeah.
- [12:14]
A
When you first see him.
- [12:15]
B
Yeah.
- [12:16]
A
It seems like one of the things that he likes to do in pass protection is he goes like this and he just, he just finds the first guy that he can get to and just shoves them as hard as he can. And then sometimes he goes to another guy and he shoves them as hard as he can. I think one more time. Right tackle. One more time.
- [12:35]
B
Francis. Mali Noah.
- [12:36]
A
Mali Noah. I think Mali Noah. And as you can see, he's first team. Bell is third team. Mali Noah, I think is a more well rounded, complete offensive lineman.
- [12:45]
B
Yeah, he's, he's Maui Noah is one of the best offensive linemen in the country.
- [12:49]
A
Okay.
- [12:50]
B
He might be honestly the best offensive lineman in the country.
- [12:52]
A
So I think like, that's a real dude. I don't know that anybody that you're going to line up, whether it's Kenyatta Jackson or Kaden Curry or Arvel Reese or Sunny Styles or anybody to get a lineup over him and smoke him.
- [13:03]
B
I would not bet on that happening. Yeah.
- [13:06]
A
I am waiting though. Remember, like the stutter step, Arvell Reese, pass rush move.
- [13:12]
B
The coffee house stunt. Yeah.
- [13:17]
A
I'd like to see him try that against a guy as big as a house.
- [13:21]
B
Yeah.
- [13:22]
A
I feel like Bell is so big. I'm not pretending I watched every Miami game, but you can find a couple plays where an edge rusher with a little speed, a little wiggle can get around him, which just happens when you're 6, 9 and 360. Like sometimes little guys get around you. And I feel like that is a matchup that we could see. And, and it certainly can be Kaden Curry and Kenyatta Jackson. As well. But I feel like as Matt Patricia tries to think about this, and we've been talking for weeks about Arvel Reese, the beginning of the season, he was pass rushing more than he has been in the second half of the season. But they've been using him to menace the opponent. I think putting him on the edge, which happens a good chunk of the time, but then actually letting him go against Markel Bell could be interesting.
- [14:12]
B
I do think, like, there's this con. There's this conversation about like a. Well, Ohio State hasn't seen anything like Miami's edge rushers. Like, I don't know that Miami seen anything like Ohio State's.
- [14:22]
A
Right.
- [14:23]
B
And I think you can go too far with that because like the, the unsaid part of that is, okay, I haven't seen this, so of course they can't handle it.
- [14:31]
A
That's.
- [14:31]
B
That's not necessarily true, but I think there's some matchup stuff there. Especially think of like Kaden Curry. He's such a unique defensive lineman. The idea of him rushing against a guy who's like 6 inches taller than him and 100 pounds heavier than him at first blush, probably like, well, that's a mismatch. Like, I don't think Kaden Kerry is going to rush. It's like, I don't know, maybe he can. It's like a mouse against an elephant.
- [14:53]
A
Yeah.
- [14:54]
B
But I think, I think maybe the mouse might win a time or time or two. I do think, like when you think about Ohio State attacking Miami defensive, like Ohio State defense attacking Miami's offense, it does feel like a little bit of a lost cause to try to do it against the right side of the offensive line.
- [15:10]
A
Okay.
- [15:10]
B
Because Maui know is so good. And, and Cooper, the right guard. Those two have played together for three years like this, like in tandem. They're very good. The whole line's good. But the left side is a little more susceptible with Bell a tackle. And they wrote. They rotate right at left guard. I think that's right.
- [15:26]
A
Yeah. And so. And then it's one of those. Okay, well then in the run game. Well, then Kaden Curry might get run over by.
- [15:38]
B
Worried about that.
- [15:38]
A
Which, which just means that Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese and Caleb downs and Jalen McLean behind him at the tackle. Right. So. Which is. Well, that's nothing new. And they have guys who can do that.
- [15:47]
B
So they've done that all year.
- [15:48]
A
So. So I, I think, like, it is, it is an interesting. I won't call it a cat and mouse game. I'LL call it a mouse and elephant game. It's an interesting mouse and elephant game between this Miami offensive line and this Ohio State. Ohio State defensive line, which is not small by any measure. Kate McDonald's a load, but they're just a couple, like, gigantic dudes for Miami. But, like, that's not automatically good every single snap. And so I'm. I mean, I'm intrigued by it, but I don't think it is. Lights out, game over. Miami's going to be able to push him around.
- [16:25]
B
I don't think so either. I do think this is the best offensive line Ohio State has seen. I don't know. I'm trying to think, like, okay, Texas's was just not very good and never really got good. Penn State's was supposed to be good, but never really got it together. Yep. Michigan's offensive line is, like, probably like a Big Ten average offensive line this year. Indiana's offensive line sort of, like, plays well as a unit, but doesn't have, like, a ton of dudes up front. I. I think by perhaps a significant margin, this is the best offensive line Ohio State has seen this year. But again, that doesn't mean that they are automatically going to lose that, because I think the same could be true. Even though Miami just played A and M. I think the same thing could be true sort of in the universe that my. That Ohio State's defensive line is different from anything Miami's seen so far.
- [17:08]
A
Overall, defense is Ohio State. As we said in the FEI ratings, they're ranked first in the nation. The only two defenses that Miami has faced that were ranked in the top 20. Notre Dame, who's fifth, but they caught them in the opener when Notre Dame's defense was a mess.
- [17:21]
B
Yeah.
- [17:21]
A
And the whole story of Notre Dame season, I think the number one thing of Notre Dame season was their defense was a mess for the first month, and then they figured it out. So, like, statistically, okay, well, they scored 27 points on the number five defense in the country that wasn't playing anything like the number five defense in the country in that game. And then the other one's Texas A and M. Texas A and M is the number 12 defense in the country. Miami scored 10.
- [17:45]
B
Yeah, that was. It wasn't like they played that really good defense and, like, we're moving it up and down on them. They found their run game at the end, but, yeah, it was. That was a. That was a tough day for Miami's offense.
- [17:55]
A
So, you know, the, you know, again, it's just. It's it's life in the ACC. Louisville has the 23rd ranked defense. They. They lost to Louisville. Pitt has a 20th ranked defense. They did move the ball a little bit on Pitt, but it was a slow start. It was up early.
- [18:08]
B
And Pitt does present opportunities to hit explosive plays. If you can block them, it's a little boomer bust.
- [18:13]
A
Defensively they're not as locked down solid is this so I. So the second thing is this. Miami's as an offense. Miami is based on some big guys up front and a 5 foot 11 freshman receiver.
- [18:31]
B
Yep.
- [18:32]
A
Matt Patricia was asked about him on Monday and he said Malachi Tony is the offense. And that sounds like a compliment.
- [18:44]
B
But.
- [18:45]
A
I'm not sure it is. And I'm not. That's not anything about the way Matt Patricia intended it.
- [18:49]
B
But it's like, oh, he meant it as a compliment.
- [18:52]
A
He meant it as a compliment. But the reality of it is, oh, team, that's one of the final eight remaining in college football. What is your entire offense? 511 freshman.
- [19:02]
B
Yeah.
- [19:02]
A
What does he do to catch it a lot? Oh yeah, he catches it. He also throws it. He also is like our best guy in space. So. So here's the thing about Malachi Tony, like the load that he carries is unbelievable. And I was trying to think at a place and Mario Cristobal said this about Ohio State. Like, they've been the best in the country at receiver. Right. So what better place to find receiver context than Ohio State? I couldn't because Ohio State doesn't recruit 511 slot receivers anymore. Like they stopped doing it.
- [19:34]
B
Yeah.
- [19:34]
A
It'd be like if Jalen Gill had turned into Ohio State's number one weapon. Right.
- [19:38]
B
Like, but Curtis Samuel.
- [19:39]
A
Yeah.
- [19:40]
B
That's probably the closest thing Ohio State's had.
- [19:41]
A
That's a good comparison because I was trying to think like it's not at all a physical comparison, but like Paris Campbell. What if you said Paris Campbell's our whole offense now he's a completely different player. Paris Campbell, six, two ripped, runs like a four. Four.
- [19:55]
B
Right.
- [19:56]
A
But like Paris Campbell was a very good football player. He's a second round NFL draft pick. But if he had been like, if Ohio State's entire. You know what, you nailed it though. Why am I trying to hang on.
- [20:05]
B
To the Paris Campbell thing?
- [20:07]
A
Curtis Samuel in 2016. Yeah. And I think the word that we would use to describe the Ohio state offense in 2016 was non functional.
- [20:15]
B
Right.
- [20:15]
A
Why? Because the entire offense was one little guy. That little guy was incredible. You're such a good Partner. It's the perfect one because. Because Curtis Samuel had to run it. He had to catch it. He was their best running back. He was their best receiver when they needed to beat Michigan. Curtis Samuel come. Curtis Samuel was amazing.
- [20:37]
B
Yep.
- [20:37]
A
Curtis Samuel wasn't Ezekiel Elliott.
- [20:39]
B
No.
- [20:39]
A
Curtis Samuel wasn't Jeremiah Smith. Curtis Samuel was a second round pick. He's a very good player. If he is your entire offense, there's something wrong with your offense.
- [20:49]
B
Yeah, I do think that's true. I would think like and I haven't compared, like Ohio State's offense in 2016 was quite dysfunctional. The, like, the numbers on Miami's offense are not, are not actually overall all that bad. But you like, you watch them against like the best teams they played and the numbers sort of don't make sense.
- [21:10]
A
Yes. Malachi Tony has 112 targets this year. That's tied for the second most in the power four behind some cow guy who is 150. Yeah, they feed him the ball like crazy. He's a 511 freshman. He has 27 missed tackles forced this year among power four receivers that second. Yeah, they get him the ball in space and then rely on him to make things happen.
- [21:37]
B
A lot of like bubbles, that kind of stuff. Quick, quick. Just get it to him quickly. Yeah.
- [21:41]
A
And then which, which again was the Curtis Samuel offense here. Curtis do something.
- [21:46]
B
But even down to like the, the little pop pass jet sweep, that's not a pass but counts as one because the quarterback is throwing it. Like the game winning touchdown that Malachi Tony scored against Texas A M. Was watching ESPN the other day. They were talking about Carson Beck. Like Carson Beck throws the game winning touchdown against a. Was like. No, he didn't. He just let the ball float out of his hands while Malachi Tony ran by him like a maniac and took it on a sweep. But like when he catches those sweeps and then takes it 10 yards and makes two guys miss, that counts as missed tackles. Force after the, after the catch, like it's a little, it's like slightly misleading, but all of it is to illustrate that like he's a pretty dangerous player.
- [22:23]
A
Malachi Toney has 649 yards after the catch, which is by far the most among any power conference receivers. Like this is how much they rely on this guy. Again, for comparison's sake. And one of the things that you have said correctly this year is that Ohio State doesn't get to the ball, the ball to its receivers on the move very much. MALACHI Tony has 649 yards after the catch. Jeremiah Smith has 342.
- [22:48]
B
Yeah.
- [22:49]
A
He has almost double what Jeremiah Smith. That's just how different it is the way he's used. He's in the slot.
- [22:55]
B
You know who to love? Malachi Tony, Urban, Urban Meyer.
- [22:59]
A
I mean, he is some version. He, he is some combination of Curtis Samuel and Percy Harvin and Dantre Wilson. Dant God conjure, brother. Just keep, just keep, keep, bring. That's exactly what this is.
- [23:13]
B
Yeah.
- [23:14]
A
When we were waiting, can you imagine like Dantre Wilson had a good freshman year. Can you imagine if Dantre Wilson got to Ohio State in 2013 and Ohio.
- [23:20]
B
State was like, he's the offense 112 targets.
- [23:24]
A
Like. But like that's what we're talking about. So it's one of those things where it's like, oh, Malachi Toney individually as a true freshman, amazing. He is an amazing player. It is not an amazing situation for Miami that they rely on him as much as they do. And then when you think about, you and I were sort of talking about this, it's like I said, could Ohio State play Jermaine Matthews in the slot a little bit more? Because again, he's in the slot almost every snap. And you said actually Lorenzo Styles, like, is probably faster and he's a big physical guy. But then also, as we talk about yards after the catch, that often is the kind of thing that does not work against Ohio State because they have a bunch of athletic guys who are going to rally to the ball. And there are times when Malachi Tony has the ball in an ACC game and there's maybe nobody on the opposing defense who is as, as athletic as him. And when he has the ball against Ohio State, there's going to be several guys who are as athletic or more athletic than him. So Ohio State has to rally to the ball and tackle this guy. But a mature, selfless, poised defense that doesn't overextend itself, that stays in position. Mario Cristobal talked about that. Like Shannon Dawson said that the offensive coordinator, they're in this right spot all the time. All right? You're in the right spot. They throw five yard passes to this guy. Let, let him catch a five yard pass, rally to the ball, don't let him break a big one. And I'm not sure what the Miami offense is going to do.
- [24:51]
B
That's what A and M did, A and M. Against A and M, Al kai Tony had five catches for 22 yards and he scored the game winning touchdown on the jets sweep. But like he has a huge Fumble.
- [25:01]
A
Right.
- [25:01]
B
He did have a huge fumble. Excuse me. And, but A and M just tackled really well on the perimeter and I think Ohio State has, has done that kind of all year. That, that's, that's part of the reason why I think people, Ohio State fans think like really good guy in the slot. Lorenzo Styles is in trouble. And I think when that guy is like a route machine, just like insane wiggle within, within running his route is going to like break you off and leave you in the dust. I think that's right. I don't know that that's what Tony is just yet. Maybe he can become that. But he is fast obviously. But like Lorenzo Styles is fast too. Like guys have said that Lorenzo Styles is the fastest guy on Ohio State's team and Lorenzo Styles can tackle. So I actually, I mean, whatever. Famous last words, I suppose. But I don't hate that matchup for Ohio State.
- [25:53]
A
Yeah. So I said there's two stats I wanted to drop on you that Malachi Tony leads the nation. One is yards after catch for a receiver. The other is Malachi. Tony has thrown more passes than any non quarterback in the power four.
- [26:07]
B
Oh really?
- [26:08]
A
He has thrown seven passes this year. He has four of seven passing. All seven passes are since week 11. He's a high school quarterback and the offensive coordinator in November figured out that he can throw. So he is four of seven. They line him up in the Wildcat. He lined up in the Wildcat and threw like a fade to the end zone like he was a qb. They snap the tomb in the Wildcat, roll out, linebackers suck up. He hits a tight end wide open in the end zone. They run flea flicker stuff. They run jet sweep to Tony. Now Tony's going to throw. This is not a naturally explosive offense. They have 11 plays of 40 yards or more this season, which is ranked pretty low nationally. Ohio state has like 20. They're around the same as Ohio State in terms of plays of 20 yards or more. But like in the super explosive stuff, they don't really get it down the field like that very often. So they create, often like with Michigan, they create explosion through trick plays and they're going to. Malachi. Tony is going to throw the ball in this game. So you must be prepared for that. But it's one of those again. This was the, the pit game. It was the last game of the regular season. I was watching. He takes the ball in the Wildcat, rolls to the right. There's two linebackers rolling with him and a tight end running between the linebackers and both linebackers sucked up to Malachi Tony like he was going to run with the ball and it's like he's going to throw it. You have to know that he is going to throw it and treat him like a quarterback in those situations. So again like 4 for 7 as non QB is crazy. And they are 100% going to do it. He's going to line up in the wildcat. He's going to take jet sweeps. They do it in the red zone like but again credit to them for figuring it out. But the reason they figured it out is because they don't get a lot of those plays naturally. Whereas opposed to I always want Ohio State to run trick plays but their trick play is Carnell Tate's on our team, right?
- [28:01]
B
I, I was watching the Louisville game, Miami, Louisville game. Again, Miami loss. And they were like trying to push it downfield and Carson Beck just like kind of didn't have it in his arm to do it. And I wonder if that's any part of what led them to. Let's see if we can't design some explosion because we can't just come by it naturally.
- [28:20]
A
So let's get to Carson Beck. The good news for Miami is that Malachi Tony is quite a threat throwing the ball. The bad news for Miami is he might be the best passer on the team. Carson Beck's average depth of target, which is how far the ball travels down the field on average when you Throw it is 7.3. Excuse me.
- [28:41]
B
Just getting choked up about it.
- [28:43]
A
Just that guy is such a gamer. He only got a Lamborghini to go to Miami. It's 7.3 yards per attempt. That's 76 out of 81 qualified in quarterbacks in the Power 4. They do not push the ball down the field. For comparison's sake, Fernando Mendoza 9.5. The average depth of target, that's 18th in the nation. That's what Ohio State faced last time out. Julian saying 8.7 yards, which is 41st in the nation. Again, Carson Beck is 7.3, which is 76 in the nation. 27% of his throws are behind the line of scrimmage, which is a lot.
- [29:21]
B
It is a lot.
- [29:22]
A
Yeah, he is. They, they do a lot of little stuff like, like jet sweeps, like little bubble screens and stuff. He is also a check down monster. Let me, let me rephrase that. He's like a check down teddy bear. He will take a soft cuddly check down for three yards and you don't even have to say Please. He will just taken. There is almost no danger or threat in this passing game. He is sort of like an old robot sent to Miami to this conference of lunatics to be placed behind a couple giant humans on the offensive line to sort of calm everybody down. But then there's nothing else there. So I want to get into his scrambling or lack thereof in a moment. But. And then when you watch him, like just watching him, it'll be like now they take a shot and that is five yards off target.
- [30:25]
B
Yeah, yeah.
- [30:26]
A
The five yards off target throw will also appear in this game.
- [30:29]
B
It will. I do, I do think, and he was talking about this at the media day, that, that the wind did knock some passes that perhaps would have been errant anyway. More, more, more off target than they would have been otherwise. But you can watch more Miami games that were played in sort of more sterile conditions and see that once that ball gets 20 yards or so down the field, you're not quite sure where it's going.
- [30:58]
A
Matt. Patricia. Carson Beck is efficient. He gets the ball out quick. Which again sounds like a compliment, but is it? Because like when he, when he holds it, then nothing good is going to happen.
- [31:12]
B
Right.
- [31:13]
A
So Carson Beck has scrambled according to. Pff, 22 times this year. Like 22 scrambled is like an okay amount. Julian saying has 11. Like Julian Sam never scrambles.
- [31:26]
B
Right.
- [31:27]
A
Some quarterbacks have 60, right. So 20, 22. The raw number of scrambles is, is not like he's a statue. He's gained 75 yards on his 22 scrambles. There is nobody like around him in number of scrambles with as few yards as 75. I think perhaps he is the worst scrambler in the power four. So like this, like didn't he used.
- [31:53]
B
To be good at it though?
- [31:53]
A
I don't.
- [31:54]
B
Wasn't he good at it previously?
- [31:55]
A
I don't know. I think maybe like the sand got in his gears when he got to south beach and like the, the, the quarterback doesn't work quite as well. I'm sure he's a fine person. We're just joking around at Sports Talk. He is not dangerous down the field. He is not dangerous when he gets on the move. He is going to check the ball down when there's pressure and get it out of his hands. But then when he does that, there's not that many dangerous people to get the ball to. So the ball, Malachi, Tony, we covered, he's great. But many times the ball is leaving the hands of a non dangerous offensive player and landing in the hands of a Not that dangerous offensive player. And that's the Miami offense.
- [32:33]
B
Carson Beck has played football for a long time. In 2024 at Georgia he scrambled 26 times for 190 yards. And in 2023 at Georgia he scrambled 28 times for 171 yards.
- [32:46]
A
Maybe got, maybe he got older.
- [32:49]
B
He certainly got worse.
- [32:50]
A
Not there like. And it's one of those things. So that, so this is the thing that I am getting back around to on ARVL Reese and I asked, I had a short conversation, we tried to talk to as many people as we could. On Monday at the media day, I had a short two minute conversation with Arval Reese right at the end as the announcer was booming two minutes left. I asked Arvell Reese about the freedom that he and Sunny Stiles have to decide who's going to blitz, who's going to spot, who's going to drop. And he said like they can do that. He'll say, hey Sonny, let me take this blitz. Or you know, Sonny, no, you get that gap, I'll, I'll drop. Right. That kind of thing.
- [33:29]
B
Eve.
- [33:31]
A
Even against Indiana. Even against Indiana. Right. Like we were sort of waiting maybe for like the Arvell Reese to be unleashed. We were maybe maybe waiting for him to be unleashed against Michigan and Bryce Underwood. But both those quarterbacks can move a little bit, right?
- [33:48]
B
Yeah, they'll get you.
- [33:49]
A
Yeah, yeah, they can scoot. This is a non scoot situation.
- [33:53]
B
The scoot threat is low.
- [33:54]
A
The scoot threat is low. So that, that, that they don't have to worry about spying the QB and that I think there is a potential matchup for RVL Reese to really do some damage. I'm probably going to say it until he plays his final game as an Ohio State Buckeye. Like this is the game when Arvel Reese is going to get unleashed. But I think there's more factors at play here that could maybe make that actually true. And it starts with, you don't have to spy Carson back.
- [34:19]
B
You don't.
- [34:20]
A
Yeah.
- [34:20]
B
I really do think they need to blitz him more probably than Ohio State has blitzed anyone all year. Just because it seems like once he starts having to move around in the pocket a little bit, there's a pretty high chance that he might throw you the ball.
- [34:34]
A
Carson Beck, when he's not blitzed, according to PFF, he's the 15th ranked quarterback in the Power 4. When he is blitz, he's 60 seconds. When he is kept clean in the pocket whether it's a blitz or not. But they get after you. When he's clean, he's 33rd among quarterbacks in the Power 4. When he's pressured, he's 56th. So he is worse when he is blitzed 15th, when he's not blitzed, 62nd when he's blitzed. And he's been blitzed 42% of the time this year, according to PFF by the opposition. This feels like an opportunity for more early season. Matt Patricia lets his linebackers get after it more.
- [35:19]
B
I'm looking up to see what Ohio State's blitz rate was against Texas. You don't have that handy, do you?
- [35:25]
A
I don't have that.
- [35:26]
B
Okay. So against Texas, Ohio State blitzed Arch Manning. Not that much, 29% of the time, but it just felt like there was a lot of like, whatever, simulated pressures, just like the design stuff, exotic stuff to like really get after a quarterback on an offensive line. And I don't know that because there's the quarterback and then there is the O line.
- [35:48]
A
Right.
- [35:48]
B
I don't, I don't know. Maybe Miami's offensive line is not going to be quite as susceptible to some of that stuff as Texas's was. But I think Carson Beck can be just as susceptible to it as Arch Manning. Like, I really. For a guy who's played as much football as he has and experience as he is, it really doesn't show up when you bother him, which is like kind of a black mark on a quarterback who's trying to go to the NFL.
- [36:07]
A
Yeah. And this is one of those, like all anybody talks about with him is his experience because he was a two year starter at Georgia before he transferred to Miami. He's in his sixth year of college football. He's been around forever. I forgot this, but it was on one of the transcripts from.
- [36:18]
B
I asked this, God, why am I even here?
- [36:22]
A
What a great idea by me to partner with you. Are you serious? I'm like, hey, Bill, there's a good quote on the transcript. And you're like, yeah, I asked.
- [36:32]
B
It's possible somebody else also asked him about Caleb Downs, but I did too.
- [36:35]
A
You asked Caleb Downs about playing Carson back in the 23 SEC championship game?
- [36:40]
B
No. No. Oh, no. I asked Carson Beck about playing Caleb Downs.
- [36:43]
A
Oh, okay. Oh, you closed the loop on that.
- [36:46]
B
Yeah.
- [36:46]
A
Okay, well, here's what Caleb down said. He said, we knew we had to make it tough on him. Caleb Downs is a, is a freshman safety for Alabama in that game. Carson Beck is a, is an experienced Georgia quarterback. He's a really good player. He has a Lot of experience. I played against him as a freshman. Georgia, Alabama, the SEC championship. He's played in a lot of big games. We're excited and we're just going to try to make it as hard as possible as we can. So here's the thing. He has played a lot of big games. Was it good in them? Like. Like this?
- [37:14]
B
Has he won them?
- [37:15]
A
So that game. So that year, Alabama's defense was eighth in the fei. So not quite as Ohio State, but it's Alabama defense. Right? Same as last year. Carson Beck in that game was 21 of 29 for 243 yards. No picks, no TDs, which might sound.
- [37:31]
B
Like, hey, you know what?
- [37:31]
A
He kind of. He kind of managed it okay. On throws of nine yards or less, he was 15 of 15. On throws of 10 yards or more, he was six of 14. So, like that. Like in that and Alabama one.
- [37:45]
B
Yeah.
- [37:45]
A
So, like in that big moment against a great defense, what happened? And I'm not going to pretend I went back and watched that game. But the stats tell you he took all the little stuff. He took the easy stuff. There was no threat, there was no danger. He was one of five on throws over 20 yards and his team didn't win. So, like that. And. And he's older. He's two years older than that. I don't think he's better. I think maybe he's worse. Maybe.
- [38:12]
B
I think the best Carson Beck was his first year starting at Georgia.
- [38:15]
A
I think that's probably right. And so this is not to, you know, tear down Carson Beck. We're just saying we want to make the. At least I want to make the point. And if you agree, I think there is opportunity for the Ohio State defense for Matt Patricia to design something different than what they've done the past several games, because frankly, they faced a bunch of scooty quarterbacks this year, whether it was Damon Williams at, at Washington. I mean, the only reason the Texas offense woke up in the second half was because they let Arch. Arch Manning started running a little bit.
- [38:46]
B
Right.
- [38:46]
A
Ryan Brown at Purdue can run. Bryce Underwood at Michigan, Fernando Mendoza. Like, they faced a lot of guys where Luke Altmire. There's Scooty, Scooty all over the place. So it's like, well, we. We don't want to let it rip because there's a threat of that. There's no threat of that here. There's not much threat of getting beaten down the field. I like Keelan Marion, but he was a return specialist at byu and when he left byu in the offseason, I was like, man, that's a loss for byu. And then it came to Miami. Like, the second receiver.
- [39:13]
B
Yeah.
- [39:13]
A
It's like he was. He was a return guy for byu. So I just. There is a chance, I think, for Matt Patricia to be more aggressive and for Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese to be more aggressive, because I don't think this is Miami offense. That's the ability to make you pay.
- [39:30]
B
It really does feel like an offense you can kind of tee off on, and it's just a matter of whether or not Map Attricia wants to do that. Because what's also been effective for Ohio State is just, like, kind of letting things happen in front of you. Tackling well, get them off the field and your offense has the ball back. Right. They have not had to be aggressive to be as dominant as they have been. So I'm curious about that. Like, I don't. I don't know that it's an automatic that they suddenly, like, flip the script a little bit. I know I wasn't listening to Matt Patricia, but I saw a video he was, like, kind of talking about, like, maybe we have some stuff we haven't done yet, and he had, like, a little bit of a smirk on his face. And I don't know if that's just a guy.
- [40:06]
A
Okay.
- [40:07]
B
Understanding that everything he says in the lead up to the game is going to be magnified. So why not throw something like that out there? Or if they truly have some things that they haven't shown yet that they might bring out for this game. Because I think if you were ever going to be exotic, aggressive, whatever. How you ever describe it, this feels like the matchup where you could do that.
- [40:22]
A
Yeah. And it's one of those. There was especially time early in the year where it felt like Ohio State would come out vanilla, give up a drive early. You know, usually hold it to three, but maybe give up some early points. You know, I wonder if it could be a version of that. That plan A is, let's do what we've always done and see if he can do anything with it. And then plan B is if Carson Beck can, because he's a veteran, we're going to unleash stuff on him.
- [40:44]
B
Yeah, but.
- [40:45]
A
But maybe you don't unleash the stuff right away if you don't need to. If being a sound 1 through 11, run to the ball and tackle defense is enough, then just do that. So I don't know that I'm anticipating Arvell Reese going Crazy on Carson Beck on the first drive, but I think if Miami goes up seven nothing, I think on the second drive he will.
- [41:09]
B
I think you will. I would. All right, let's get that on the table.
- [41:15]
A
Will.
- [41:16]
B
I guess it's as simple as this. Like, will our Valleys have a sack in this game? Yes, because he hasn't had one since November 1st.
- [41:20]
A
Yeah. So I think because there's a like go crazy blitz, Carson Beck 50 of the time. Like have Arvell Reese be part of the pass rush on 40% of plays or strategically here and there. But I would bet he gets one because I just think he's a good matchup on Bell. I just think on Markel Bell is a good matchup for Ohio State and.
- [41:42]
B
I think he could be a good matchup on some of the interior guys too.
- [41:45]
A
Yes.
- [41:46]
B
Again, not. I just like Maui Noah just sort of like X's out his side, which is great. He's an, he's an all American for a reason. But that doesn't mean the whole offensive line operates that way. Right.
- [41:55]
A
And then run game. Mark Fletcher, third year player, originally committed to Ohio State, South Florida kid and then flipped to Miami. I talked to him briefly. Seems like a, a fine young man.
- [42:04]
B
Yeah.
- [42:04]
A
Had very nice things to say about Columbus, had very nice things to say about Ohio State, but he just wanted to stay home in the end. He's really. He was really. He kind of put the game away for them against Texas A and m, ran for 170 yards and everybody was like, why did they go more to him sooner? He hasn't been sort of like the go to back necessarily all year, but he's, he's a good player. But I don't think he is a. He's not Ezekiel Elliott either.
- [42:29]
B
So no, I think with the run game. So like Ohio State's defense has been a little susceptible at times to like gap scheme runs, runs with pullers, counter power, that kind of stuff.
- [42:43]
A
They have some guys who can get.
- [42:44]
B
Out and pull too, might do that. They're so. They're primarily a zone based running team, which I do think leans into Ohio State's defensive strengths. But they run enough like gap scheme stuff and have run enough throughout the year that if they wanted to suddenly do more of that in this game, it wouldn't be like out of left field. Like they. I think they've repped it enough to be good at it.
- [43:03]
A
That's.
- [43:03]
B
That's probably honestly the thing that I'm most curious about with this matchup is, is if Miami Decides to flip it to more of a gap based run scheme. Can they actually find any kind of consistent success running the ball?
- [43:13]
A
Okay, all right. That's all I got for Miami offense.
- [43:17]
B
Okay.
- [43:17]
A
Versus Ohio State defense. Okay, the floor is yours for Ohio State offense versus Miami defense.
- [43:23]
B
Shall we start with the defensive line of Miami? Honest, I think I said this to you and I can't remember if I said it on a podcast. Like I was like diving in this stuff. The thing that stuck out to me the most is that Ruben Bane and Akeem Mezador don't come off the field. Reuben Bain, snap count 707, as a defensive end, leads the defense with 707 snaps.
- [43:44]
A
That's crazy.
- [43:44]
B
Akeem Mezador, the other defensive end, third on the defense with 648 snaps.
- [43:49]
A
But for comparison sakes, Jalen McLean as a safety who kind of just is sort of standing in center field.
- [43:54]
B
Yeah.
- [43:54]
A
And isn't involved in half the plays, leads Ohio State defensive.
- [43:57]
B
Yeah, it is kind of crazy. Like though you don't see a lot of defensive linemen at the power four level playing as many snaps as these two guys do. And they're good. Like I, the, the other thing that like, with that is like, you don't, you don't watch them and then think like, well, that's a lot. By the end of the game they're tired and you can wear them down. I don't know that I saw a bunch of that either. They, Miami will rotate like four guys through defensive tackle and kind of keep guys fresh that way. But there will, there will not be a meaningful snap in this game where Ruben Bay, number four, and Akeemezador number three are off the field. They're just going to be out there the whole time. They move them around. Some deals they drop out a fair amount.
- [44:38]
A
I think.
- [44:39]
B
I think that's honestly like how they get them rest. Okay. They'll drop them out in the zone and say like, don't, maybe don't rush on this play. And they're athletic enough, I think to kind of like hold their own in space. I. There's like a rush front that they'll get into with Bane and Mezador on the same side. Oh, that's probably the thing that I saw when watching Miami where I was like, oh, that's interesting. And I wonder what Ohio State can do to try to combat that. Because I do think when you put them on the same side, you then invite like the opportunity to start running some twists and stuff to try to spring one of Them open. And there was a little bit of that against Texas A and M that was effective. But I. I do think there's, like, a stylistic thing here that we discussed before where these guys are maniacs as pass rushers. They're. They're about as good as it gets in college football. But Miami styles just kind of let them, like, let them pin their ears back and get after it. And they're not doing a lot of the stuff that Indiana was doing, which is like, there's a twist on every play, right? Every play, the defensive line's moving. Same thing happened with Ohio against Wisconsin. Every play, the defensive lines moving. I think if Miami started to do that in this game, it would be out of character. I actually wonder if Miami did that in this game, if it actually would be to their detriment, because they're not used to.
- [45:49]
A
They're not used to it.
- [45:50]
B
So I.
- [45:51]
A
All of a sudden, Ohio State's running through huge gaps, Julian saying, escaping because there's holes, right?
- [45:57]
B
So I think I would be surprised if Miami did that. I think there's always that balance, right, of when you get to this point of the season. Do you. Do you do what got you here, or do you, like, really trying to mix it up? And I think, by and large, teams fall back on what got them here and what has gotten Miami here defensively is those guys just kind of getting after it as individuals. And I think in like, a weird way, that might actually lend itself toward Ohio State's offensive line strengths.
- [46:25]
A
Because you've said that all year, you feel like the thing that Ohio State's offensive line has struggled with the most has been the games up front.
- [46:31]
B
Movement, communicating the movement and understanding, like, where your eyes are supposed to be and, like, who you're supposed to take. I think getting a better sense of, well, this guy's up on the line, but he's going to drop. Which means, like, there's probably somebody coming from over here, like, just, like. Just like, general awareness of all that stuff. I. I think within games, they have done a good job of eventually figuring out, but there have been games like the Wisconsin game and the Indiana game or one the jump out the most, where it just took them a really long time to figure it out, and they eventually did, but in the course of doing that, they just kind of left a lot of opportunities out on the field. And I. I am. If I. You know, the thing I said, I was most curious about Miami's run game against Ohio State's defense. I think the thing I'm most curious about with Miami's defense against Ohio State's offense is, is, are they going to do anything to kind of change that up? And I, I, I think I would be surprised if they did.
- [47:22]
A
What do you think? So Corey Heatherman, the, the defensive coordinator for Miami came from Minnesota, so he's gone against Ohio State before.
- [47:31]
B
So he was the Minnesota defensive coordinator last year. Ohio State did not play Minnesota. He was the Rutgers linebackers coach the year before that. He did coach against Ohio State.
- [47:41]
A
Okay.
- [47:41]
B
And then prior to that, he was at James Madison. But I was like, trying to talk to some people at media day to ask because, because Brian Haynes, the Indiana defensive coordinator, obviously came from James Madison with Kurt Signetti. And I said, like, is there anything similar schematically between, like, what Indiana does, what Miami might do that with like, JMU as the through line? And the answer was like, no, not really.
- [48:02]
A
Okay.
- [48:03]
B
So I, I, that's where my mind went immediately when this matchup popped up, I was like, well, that's like kind of maybe you're facing the same defense back to back. And, and that's not the vibes that I got. I think there's, there's like some old, like some of the old Penn State defenses, not, not the Jim Knowles versions, but like the super aggressive Penn State defenses where, like, their defensive line was almost at times, like, allowed to like, kind of like freelance and just like, really get after it. I think is maybe more the flavor of this Miami defense that Ohio State's getting ready to face. They're not like, super in your face with man coverage, but they'll play a decent amount of COVID 1. They play primarily Cover 3, which Ohio State's seen a lot of this year, and they'll play a little bit of, of like cover two, Tampa two stuff. Maybe they'll play more of that with the healthy Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. But I, I don't know that it's like, super complex. I guess I think it, and it's, I don't mean that like, in a derogatory way, because I think in college football, sometimes coaches can get overly complex.
- [49:00]
A
Yeah.
- [49:00]
B
And, and really put their players in a bad spot. And I think Corey Heatherman in Miami has done a good job of just understanding that he's got really good football players, especially up front, but kind of sprinkled out through all three levels of the defense that, like, you don't have to get cute, just like, let those guys be good. But then you get into like a matchup game.
- [49:17]
A
Right.
- [49:18]
B
And it's like I like Ryan Day talks about that all the time. It's like that's good maybe until you get into the matchup game and then maybe does your lack of complexity become a like a little bit of a hindrance? I think that could be possible.
- [49:29]
A
But we, and we talked about a little bit of that with Ohio State defensively back in the era when they would have Chase Young and the defensive line lineup and say we're going to beat your guy and sack you and we're going to cover you with Jeff Okuda or Marshawn Lattimore or Denzel Ward and cover you man up. But we don't think you can beat us. And that defense wasn't complex, but because the players were so good, it was really effective.
- [49:50]
B
Yeah.
- [49:50]
A
And is that kind of style. And again, I think the point here, important point probably is okay maybe if the Miami guys up front are in that kind of as dangerous as the best Ohio State edge rushers, they're not going to cover the way that Ohio State would cover and combine that coverage and pressure like they Ohio State did at its best back in 2019.
- [50:12]
B
I think the thing about that Ohio state defense in 2019, it was like there were, there were no, there was no like trying to hide what they were doing. They were starting with a single high safety and they were playing cover one or they were playing cover three. And I do think Miami does a better job of even though it primarily does play cover three, it doesn't always show you that pre snap there's a little more like back end disguise I think with Miami and far more coverage variance with this Miami defense than like for that Ohio State these. But I think, I think the idea is similar up front which is like we're going to penetrate, we're going to get, we're going to, we're coming at you. And I don't know, like Austin Seravel, like is like playing out of position. He's not the fastest guy but he's pretty quick. But I also like it's not, I don't, I don't compare like a Ruben Bane or a Key Mezadore to like a Chase Young. Like these guys are big, they're strong, they want to play with power. And I think that might be like a comfortable place for Austin Seraphel and maybe even like Phil Daniels is the one I think you worry more about at right tackle. But I do think maybe there's just something about this particular matchup and style of play that might not have those guys in A place where their head's spinning and they're trying to figure out, like, who they're supposed to block or this guy has a skill set that, like, I'm just not built to handle. I am a little worried about the right side, but I think the left side, like, might. Might be okay in this game.
- [51:39]
A
So you. I mean, you're saying there can be coaches that can do too much and you confuse your guys and you wind up out of position, but would you.
- [51:47]
B
The.
- [51:47]
A
The most important person for Indiana's defensive performance against Ohio State was who?
- [51:55]
B
Brian Haynes, our defensive coordinator, because he.
- [51:59]
A
Was mixing coverages, he was creating situations up front to get guys free. That was a. That are very good players at Indiana, but that was a scheme. First defensive performance by the Hoosiers.
- [52:11]
B
Yeah.
- [52:11]
A
And that's what Ohio State had trouble with.
- [52:13]
B
Yes.
- [52:14]
A
And that's even maybe what Julian saying is seeing some things, like, while they're showing, which is what Matt Patricia's been doing to people all year.
- [52:19]
B
Right.
- [52:20]
A
And Brian Haynes was doing that same kind of thing. But that's not really what's on the table here. If, if somebody is saying, hey, man, last time out, the Ohio State offense, like, I don't. I don't know, it didn't look so great. Yeah, they scored 10, but this. This is a good defense, but in just a drastically different way, I think.
- [52:38]
B
Yeah, I think that's right. And I'm not trying to say, like. Like Corey Heatherman is not a good D.C. i think he is. I thought it was a heck of a hire that Mario Crystal Ball made is to steal him away from Minnesota after he was there for one year. I just. And maybe, you know, in different years, they don't have Bane and Mezador. They might play differently and be a little more complex. I just, I. I totally understand them feeling like they don't need to be, but then I just think it is difficult then to suddenly become that in the postseason because you're playing a better team like Ohio State. Okay, So I think, like, I think Ohio State is going to have, like, a pretty good beat on how it's going to be defended in this game.
- [53:16]
A
And I think. So what. What should be the level of confidence that the Ohio State coaches go into this game with about the Ohio State offensive line? Should they be. Do you think they are thinking, like, yeah, we think we can block these guys, or do you think they are anticipating there are going to be times when we're going to have trouble blocking these guys, so we're going to Move the pocket. So we're going to do quick game. We're going to throw a bunch, you know, some bubble screens. We're going to throw some quick RPO stuff in the middle of the field. We're make sure we're going to use the screen game a little bit more than we usually do and get the ball to Bo Jackson. That way that we're not just going to drop back and try to have Julian saying being five and seven step drops all game.
- [53:54]
B
Yeah.
- [53:54]
A
And wait for Phil Daniels and Austin Cerebell to hold up.
- [53:57]
B
I. I think they, they will show proper respect to Miami's pass rush because even if it is like whatever basic or not, basics are on. Because basics basic is derogatory, but if it's not the most complex thing in the world to handle, it's still very good.
- [54:10]
A
Yeah. So.
- [54:11]
B
And I don't think Ohio State's gonna just strap it up and block them on every single play. I think there will be pressure on Julian saying, and I think Ohio State needs to anticipate that and will anticipate that. So I. I'm envisioning a lot of rpo, whether that's down the field rpo, like those hitches we've seen. I would love to see Ohio State get more into the, like, middle of the field in Breaking RPOs, where you actually give guys like Cardinal Titan Jeremiah My Smith the chance to run with the ball after the catch. But a lot of what they tend to do is just like this free access hitches on the outside, which I think they probably will get against cover three. And I think you can take advantage of those because I think a lot of times that's like an easy free 8 yards on first down. I think you'll probably see we have. I don't know that we've seen a ton of like those RPO bubbles, but I think you'll see some of those make.
- [55:01]
A
Make.
- [55:02]
B
I think at the very least you have to make Miami, which I think Miami's perimeter tackling has sort of like fluctuated throughout the year. It was. It was really good against Texas A and M, but there have been other games where it's not been as good. I think you want to make them show sort of what kind of form they're in that way. So I would expect Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tatum, probably even Brandon Ennis to get some stuff on the perimeter to see what that looks like ball out of Julian Saiyan's hand, quick try to move it down whatever, seven, eight, nine yards at a time. And maybe over time you can set up your shots. But I don't think the Indiana game plan felt like they were, we're here, we're throwing it deep. And I don't think they can do that against Miami because really, like, no one is at explosive plays with any regularity against Miami this year.
- [55:45]
A
So. So two things there. One is Julian saying immediately, as soon as we started talking to him after Indiana was saying, I held the ball, I can't hold the ball. So that, I think was both a look back and a look forward to. Against Indiana, that was a problem. But I know against Miami, I can't do it. Right. So that's in his head and that's a good thing. But also, how many times back in the Chase Young era, there would be games where it was like, well, Chase Young didn't have a sack. It's like, why didn't he have a sack? Because the opposing quarterback never held the ball for more than a second.
- [56:15]
B
The ball was out. Yeah, yeah.
- [56:16]
A
And so you game plan for it. And I think, like, the thing that actually gets you sometime is like the thing you didn't anticipate or you thought, I think we can hold up, and then you can't, and now you're dead if you think, well, like I. If we were doing a chart of matchups in this game and we were doing Miami defensive line vs. Ohio State offensive line, Miami defensive line gets the.
- [56:37]
B
The check mark.
- [56:38]
A
Of course they know that.
- [56:40]
B
Absolutely. Yeah.
- [56:41]
A
And like the Ohio State offensive line, I think, is what, like somewhere between fine and good, depending on the day. Like. Like, sometimes it's like, well, that was pretty good. Sometimes, like, I guess it was fine.
- [56:54]
B
Yeah, It's.
- [56:55]
A
They're not going to come out. They're not going to come out and look like they did against Michigan.
- [56:58]
B
I don't. I don't think so.
- [56:59]
A
No. And so they're not anticipating. They're not planning for that.
- [57:02]
B
Right.
- [57:03]
A
So then they're planning for all these things, which is get the ball out quick, which is use their aggression against them. Right. Which is move the pocket. And Julian Sands, pretty good at throwing on the move, is he not?
- [57:13]
B
He's very good at throwing on the movies. He's. They said this in the Heisman. He's, I think, the highest rated quarterback outside of the pocket this year. I don't think he does it a lot. He's like the highest rated quarterback doing everything. But, yeah, he's good outside the pocket. Yeah, he's really good at controlling his body. Like, like contorting his body, getting his shoulder square and throwing a ball with pace while not having his feet under him while he's on the move. Yeah, he's really good at it.
- [57:36]
A
That is like, you always talk about Julian. Sam's like, well, when he does X, he's first, but when he does, why, he's fourth. So. So I think it is not any attempt to deny the strength of Miami's team or the edge for the matchup for Miami. It is to acknowledge that Ohio State knows it and is going to try to game plan around it. And so, yeah.
- [57:59]
B
Yeah.
- [57:59]
A
Could Miami still blow up the game plan? They could.
- [58:02]
B
Absolutely. They could.
- [58:03]
A
But also, like, I would probably take the under. Like, if we set the. I don't know, like. Like number of Ohio State catches where the ball travels 20 yards in the air, would you set it at one and a half and maybe take the under?
- [58:19]
B
Yeah, I would say maybe like two or three for the game.
- [58:23]
A
So they're not. But they can't get shot happy.
- [58:25]
B
I don't think so.
- [58:26]
A
Because you don't. You just can't anticipate that you can protect enough to be shot. I will.
- [58:30]
B
I will say, like, yeah, like. And watching Miami, like, it was just rare to see a team, like, really hit him over the top. And even for as good as Ohio State's receivers are and as dialed in as Julian saying has been throwing it deep, like, I think that will remain difficult for Ohio State, too. And Ryan Day always talks about, right, like, the timing of routes and receivers are actually running their routes against the pass rush. They're not running it against the db. Yeah. And which I think is like, a really smart way to think about it. And this pass rush is going to get on Julian saying quick. And I think Ohio State is cognizant of that. And we'll want to get the ball out of his hands quick. And like, my. My hope, I guess, for Ohio State and my hunch is that we'll see some more of, like, the short game stuff that people have been asking for. Like, it's like Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate can be. Can be dynamic with the ball in their hands after the catch if given the opportunity to do so. They just really haven't been this year. And I sort of understand why, especially towards the tail end of the year when they're both battling injuries, but if they're 100% healthy and ready to go and feeling like themselves, like, you need to kind of unleash that, I think a little bit. And they. They did that with Jeremiah, last year in the playoff, especially in the Oregon game, I think they, you know, had the idea to do it against Texas, and it didn't really work that well. But I think with both these guys, they should, they should embrace that. And I think, you know, with that, maybe Brandon Innis is more involved. I think, I think Bo Jackson receiving out of the backfield is a part of that, too. Because Miami. Miami is. Is like they're downhill. They stop the run. Well, they want to stop the run. Their linebackers are flowing to the ball. Like there's sort of space behind the linebackers, in front of the safeties. I think to kind of operate. Watching the Louisville game, they were just hitting like, Chris Bell and a lot of shallow drags, and he was just out running the corner because he's faster than them. And I think it's. It's simple, but I think Ohio State can do a fair amount of that with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate if they want to. Now, now maybe Miami comes out and plays it totally differently and plays a lot of too high, and this, this idea might go out the window, but I, I think if Ohio State comes in sort of set on short, intermediate passing, they'll be able to find some success.
- [60:40]
A
Ahmed Moten, Justin Scott, inside. Two good defensive tackles.
- [60:44]
B
Yeah, and I think David Blaine and Armando Blount are, Are really good, too. I think all four are good. I think, like, Blunt's more of a pass rushing guy, but they all kind of have those pass rushing chops. But they will, it seemed to me. And Scott's gotten better over the course of the year, so he'll do some of this too. But they'll. They'll go to, like, three defensive lineman fronts sometimes, which are. And it's always Bane and Mezador because they don't come off the field. And then like, the tackle is blunt usually because, like, he's like a pretty good interior pass rusher. And then they'll put. It'll be like a three, three, and they'll have all three defensive linemen and all three linebackers up on the line, and then three of those guys will drop and then they'll blitz the, the nickel. Who I want to talk about Keonte Scott. So it's not, it's not that they're entirely static as a defense. They will, they will throw some junk at you. There have been some pretty cool pressure packages that I've seen from Miami and watching them, but I just, I don't think it's to the extent of, like, in Indiana And I think it, I think it is a little more akin to like Michigan where like there, there's just a, there's enough of a, like a static nature to it that I think just makes it a little easier to anticipate what you're going to get. That doesn't mean it's going to be easy to like, actually convert against it, but at least you'll know what you're getting.
- [62:00]
A
Do the interior of the Ohio State offensive line, Luke Montgomery at left guard, Carson Hinsman at center. And anticipating that, Gabe Van Sickle. Yeah, we'll start at right guard. Should right guard be regarded as a weakness going into this game with Gabe Van Sickle as a second year player anticipated to make his first career start?
- [62:24]
B
A stress point at this, at the very least, I think, like, I don't, I think Gabe Van Sickles played pretty well in the run game. I think at times his pass blocking has been inconsistent. And he sort of said the same thing when I talked to him at media day. He's like, I feel pretty good about the way I run block, but like, I got to keep getting better at pass blocking. And that's, that's awareness more than it is anything else. So, like, I'm sure if Miami gets into a situation and they'll come after you, like they don't, they don't wait for third down. They'll come after you on second down. Okay, I'm sure that's where they'll try to attack and, and see whether it's Gabe Van Sickle or Josh Padilla or like, I don't know, do we have an update? We don't have an updated availability. Reporters are doing this. I'm curious to see if Tega Shabola might progress up the report just based, like, at the practice we went to on Monday, he looked fine. So I don't, I don't, I'm not saying like, he's actually going to start in this game, but maybe there's a chance that he could play. But either way, like any team that plays Ohio State is going to highlight right guard and make sure that that is secure.
- [63:25]
A
And yeah.
- [63:27]
B
I don't, I, I wouldn't say with 100 confidence that it's definitely going to be better than it has been.
- [63:35]
A
If, if I'm trying to think of the best way to do it. So one is, one is. Record's fine. Like nobody's perfect, but right guard's fine. 10 is the issue at right guard has a chance to be a primary reason that Ohio State loses this game, where are you?
- [63:57]
B
Probably right in the middle five. Yeah. Okay. Okay. Where would you be?
- [64:03]
A
I think it can't be worse than it was. And I think that Ohio State at times was tricking itself during the course of the season and thinking, this guy's a two year starter for a team that won a national championship and is trying to win a second national championship. He is a big, physical, veteran player that I think, and I think that can sometimes be the worst situation that a guy who was good enough to believe in, but not really quite good enough to do it consistently, and then the result is, well, that play got screwed up because one guy.
- [64:33]
B
Yeah.
- [64:34]
A
Messed up. Right. And as people analyze it of the course of the season, it wasn't only Tiger Shabola. There were other times when it's like, well, I was randomly. Luke Montgomery got beat that player. That was weird. Austin Saravan got beat that play. But that was where more of the mistakes were. And I think, I think it'll be okay this game. Nope, wrong. Oh, I think I'll be okay this game. Oh, he's pretty good that game. Oh, I think we're, we're okay next game. Nope, you're not. Yeah, I think that's worse than, man, we got to help this guy who's making his first start. I would rather know. I think, I think the weakness that you don't anticipate is the weakness that kills you. Nobody's perfect 1 through 22 and all their starters, the weakness that you plan for, you know, you plugged a hole in the boat, you know, so, Yeah, I might be more of a three.
- [65:20]
B
Yeah, I think I, I think I'm inclined to agree with you there. I do, I do. Whether it's moving the pocket or helping out the right side with a running back or a tight end or something. I do think they're going to account for the fact that they're going to be more than likely inexperienced at right guard, going up against a pretty good front. So I don't, I, I, maybe I would still stick it a five, but I don't think it'll be their undoing.
- [65:46]
A
No, I think, I think, I think Bowen slaps Luke Montgomery on the butt on his way out in the field and says, good luck, man. We're not helping you at all.
- [65:52]
B
Yeah. Left side, you got nothing. Yeah, Yeah, I think that could be it. And maybe that's where some leakage happens occasionally. I think, I think that's like, where I, I don't, I have a really hard time seeing Ohio State like Offense suddenly morphing into death star mode against this defense. I do think there'll be. There'll be some setbacks that come from some tough individual matchups along the defensive line for Ohio State, but I think they can sort of mask that via game plan in a way that can still be effective.
- [66:24]
A
Luke Montgomery made his first two career starts last year in the semi final, the national championship game. And he wasn't perfect, but he was good enough, good enough for them to win. And so I think, like, can Gabe Van Sickle be that?
- [66:36]
B
I think he can be that.
- [66:37]
A
Yeah, I think he can be that.
- [66:38]
B
Yeah. Yeah.
- [66:39]
A
And I don't think was any. Do you remember watching the Texas game last year and thinking like, man, Luke Montgomery is getting his.
- [66:45]
B
No, I clock clean. Certainly anticipated it, but I don't know that I. That I saw it happening regularly. And I also felt like talking with Gabe Van Sickle at the media day, like you can get a little bit of a vibe, like I wonder if this guy's like feeling the pressure at all. And I, I really did not pick up on any of that. Now he was 48 hours removed from the actual game, so maybe that, that could set in for a young player. But he seemed like pretty comfortable and sort of like understanding of what's being asked of him. And maybe part of that comes from he knows that they're going to try to take care of him too and not leave him in a bad spot. So.
- [67:21]
A
Okay, where else you want to go?
- [67:23]
B
Keonte Scott, the nickel for Miami, is the best defensive back Ohio State will play this year.
- [67:28]
A
Second team all accident and it. But it was maybe would have been first him if he wasn't hurt for part of the year.
- [67:33]
B
He's really, really good. Like I. For as much notoriety as Bane and Mezador get and they deserve it. I think Scott's their best defensive player. He's just a maniac against the run. They blitz him a ton. He tackles really well. He. He doesn't quite do the same things as Caleb Downs, but like, there are times where he reminds me a little bit of Caleb Downs. He's like primarily in the slot. He's not. He's not moving around the formation as much as Caleb Downs is. Like, that's. He's the guy that like, I kind of worry about if Miami wants to get into some of these like, simulated pressures where alignment will drop out and you're not aware of the nickel coming. Like, he's so good that maybe you're always aware of him, but he's got a chance, I think, to really blow some stuff up. Whether that's getting after Julian saying whether that's, you know, like tracking down runs from the backside, which has been an issue for Ohio State sometimes. He's just an excellent player. And I was actually pretty surprised in some of the games I've watched because another thing that jumped out to me is like, Miami has not faced a ton of 12 personnel this year.
- [68:39]
A
Call Keenan Bailey.
- [68:40]
B
Yeah, I didn't mention that the Keenan Bailey when I talked to him, but I'm sure he's aware of that. Ohio State's going to play 12 personnel. They're going to play well cast America, Max Claire a lot.
- [68:48]
A
And as you said, love 12 personnel. It's their best grouping.
- [68:53]
B
Yeah, it's when you get to 13 to 14 where I just prefer you stick it back in your pocket and we never see it again. But there, there were times in the A and M game and some other times earlier in the season, the little bit that they did see 12 personnel where Miami took Keonte Scott off the field and I couldn't believe, like, they took. They took a guy who I think is their best defender off the field to put a third linebacker out there. And actually against A M, like, that's when A and M hit a couple things.
- [69:21]
A
Oh, you should explain to Miami how Ohio State used to have a thing where they would have two different positions, but the same guy played both positions well. Pete Warner with the bullet and like linebacker. Yeah, it's like, just tell Keon Kaiser, hey, we're going to three linebackers. But Keonte Scott, you're a linebacker now.
- [69:38]
B
He plays like it. So they should, they should do that. And I think by and large they do. Like, there's not. They kind of like went back and forth between like playing the truth. Three true linebackers. And it's even funny because like the guy they play as a third linebacker is like 6 to 210 pounds. Like he's a safety, but he's actually. But he's playing linebacker. So I, I don't think Miami will be taking Keonte Scott off the field at all against Ohio State. But if for whatever reason they think they should, like, that's when Ohio State needs the pounce. Like if don't come out of 12, don't. Don't ever come out of 12. And if zero for some reason for Miami's defense is not on the field, like, you need to make them pay for it. Okay. Because I just, I like could not believe they took him off the field. And part of that could have been he was returning from injury against A M, so maybe he didn't quite have his legs on him, but he still played a ton. It just really did feel like a strict, like, personnel matching decision to take him off the field. When he's on there, you have to know where he is. And for whatever reason, if he's not there, like, that's when you need to attack. And I do think, like, he's downhill. The linebackers are downfield downhill. The defensive line is penetrating. Like, if you can account for that or get the ball out quickly. I do. Like I said, there. There are opportunities, I think, to hit some intermediate stuff, but they get on you quick. And Scott, I think, is sort of like just as devastating in making a quarterback uncomfortable as Bane and Mezador are.
- [70:59]
A
Okay. How uncomfortable do you think Julian saying can be made?
- [71:09]
B
I don't know. I think it'll be. I think it'll be hard for him to feel more under duress against anybody than he was like, in the first three quarters, basically, or two and a half quarters against Indiana. And as I've said before, he just kind of has struck me as a guy who, like, experiences a thing, maybe is not as good as you want him to be, but the next time it happens, he's. He's pretty good at it. So I, I don't. I. Part of me wonders if he's got sort of like the young guy feeling the pressure yips out of him. Maybe from the, from the Indiana game. I. I don't know. He's thrown like, two pretty bad interceptions early in the last two games that were like, pretty big marquee games. So I don't want to give him too much benefit doubt. But I, I don't know how rattled he'll be in this game unless it's just a situation where it's like they get on the field and it turns out Ohio State can't block anybody as long as it's not that. I don't know that Miami's going to take Julian saying, like, off of his game entirely because he remains still one of the better quarterbacks in the country against pressure, one of the better quarterbacks in the country against the blitz. And I, I don't think that will suddenly change in this game.
- [72:14]
A
Okay, is this a big Bo Jackson game? Is this. Is this run at this downhill defense or can do they prevent that?
- [72:27]
B
I think it can run, like, similar to Ohio State's defense, but for different reasons. You can run gap scheme on Miami Somewhat effectively. Zone seems like a losing proposition. They're just hard to move. They're big there. It's a big defensive line. It's hard to move. And I think like Ohio State trying to do that with the physical makeup of its offensive line, probably not the way to go. And they've just struggled like with their double teams and stuff all year and identifying things. I think when they have run it well, they have typically run it well via gap scheme. That was true against Michigan. That was true against Indiana. I think they will try to do that in this game. If you look like EPA per rush, Miami is like one of the best defenses in the country. EPA per rush against zone runs and more like middle of the country against gap runs.
- [73:11]
A
Okay.
- [73:12]
B
So I think, I do think, I think you can have a decent game running it with Bo Jackson, especially if Miami decides it wants to play with two high safeties and not be as aggressively downhill as it typically is. And then I think maybe a big Bo Jackson receiving game too. Like, I would. I don't know what the prop bets are for Bo Jackson receptions. I would bet he has like at least five in this game. More than that because.
- [73:34]
A
Because again, he's a, he's a turbo checkdown guy.
- [73:36]
B
Yep.
- [73:37]
A
And again, like I was like sort of dismissive of Carson Beck taking checkdowns. Julian Sam will take checkdowns too.
- [73:42]
B
Yeah, right.
- [73:43]
A
Like, I mean, that's part of it, but.
- [73:45]
B
And Miami, like what Miami's linebackers, I can't really cover.
- [73:48]
A
Yeah. And Bo Jackson can be like real. I think it was really good at that. Like, Bo will catch, turn and go. Yeah, but. But Ohio State just does not throw screens. Like, not running back.
- [73:59]
B
No, they're not.
- [74:00]
A
Like, that's not what they do. But again, like the opportunity.
- [74:02]
B
Right, there's opportunity. Yeah.
- [74:05]
A
If you can't block them, then let them go.
- [74:07]
B
Yep.
- [74:08]
A
And so whether that's. And again, I know it drives and it feels like they haven't done that a ton this year. Throwing bubble screens to the receivers that like the years where it was like, well, that was a great one yard pass to a flat footed receiver and then one guy missed a block and it was a lost play. Right.
- [74:21]
B
Yeah.
- [74:21]
A
But if, if you're getting blown up inside, it's like, all right, let's get it out here. Because, you know, I was talking to Carnell Tate about coming back from his injury and it's like, what can you do now when you're healthy? And he's like, I can do it all. And he, he Said block it. Tate will get on you.
- [74:37]
B
He's a good walker. Yeah.
- [74:38]
A
And it's like, okay, well, if you're. If, if Ohio State's game plan comes down to we're going to throw screens to Bo Jackson and we're going to flip it outside to Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith and tell them to block for each other every other play. And that's the offense. That's the thing.
- [74:51]
B
I think that could be a pretty effective plan. Yeah. And I think there's not been like middle screens to receivers. There have been very little, sort of like those slow screens, the running backs, very little bubble screens, little like in the way of. It's not really screen passes, but sometimes they can feel like them when they run those plays where like a. Either a receiver or a tight end sort of like fake blocks across the formation and then you don't actually run it and he just sort of like gets in the space that. They started unlocking a little bit of that against Indiana in the latter part of that game. And I just, that. That feels like a bit of an untapped resource for Ohio State, too, that the, the one touchdown that Jeremiah Smith scored against Oregon last year was on one of slide RPOs where they just threw the ball in the flat and he torched the entire defense. Like, I just, I, I think I understand why Ohio State never really got to that. And it's primarily because of the health of the receivers in the back half of the season. But if those guys are healthy, it would really just feel like a wasted opportunity to not try some of that stuff with them. And I think that's where they can maybe find some explosion against the Miami defense that has not given up really much in the way of explosives all year.
- [75:59]
A
I'm trying to remember, I think 2018. Right. @ Penn State. Penn State's not doing anything offensively. Dwayne Haskins is the quarterback. Right. They can't block.
- [76:13]
B
Them.
- [76:13]
A
Yeah. And then they started throwing screens late in the.
- [76:16]
B
Game. That game was referenced specifically when I was talking to someone at media.
- [76:22]
A
Day. Guess what? I am ball.
- [76:27]
B
Knower. That's.
- [76:28]
A
Right. But it's just an example. Like, well, that's not usually what Ohio State does. But Ryan Day was, was the play caller that night. Just like he's going to be the play caller on this.
- [76:41]
B
Night.
- [76:42]
A
Yeah. And it's like, well, this didn't work and this didn't work and that's a great defense and we can't do this. And then they figured it.
- [76:48]
B
Out.
- [76:49]
A
Yeah. Barely in.
- [76:50]
B
Time.
- [76:51]
A
Right. But they.
- [76:53]
B
Figured. But they broke it openly. Yeah.
- [76:54]
A
Yeah. Okay. God. I'm actually not a ball knower. So like, you, you, you, you could, you could tell me that I looked like, you know, that guy some. What's his name? I, I don't even know what young, what young actors names.
- [77:09]
B
Are. You call.
- [77:09]
A
Me. You could tell me I look like Miles Teller or you could tell me that I just dropped the reference that you got from an Ohio State person off the record talking about this game. And I'm just, I'm gonna float home.
- [77:21]
B
Brother. I'm really glad you got there because I was going to bring it up, but you, you just got there organically. All.
- [77:28]
A
Right. You got anything.
- [77:28]
B
Else?
- [77:29]
A
No. So Miami's kicker had a bad game last time.
- [77:33]
B
Out. He did. It was super.
- [77:35]
A
Windy. Yeah, it was super windy. But going into the Texas A M game, Carter Davis was 14 of 16 on field goals. He was one of four in that game. I think he had a doink in there as well. Mario Crystal Ball has been asked, you know, we're not changing kickers. He said, like, we couldn't throw, we couldn't kick. It was crazy windy. But that's a rough game for any kicker to come off of coming into this. And we bring it up at. In a situation where Ohio State's kicker, Jaden Fielding is also coming off a rough game after missing a 27 year old that would have tied it against Indiana, the Big Ten title game. So they're both might be in a little headspace. Right. So like, but as you're trying to think about this, it's like, okay, I mean, it's just no offense, but just. I don't think Ohio State can trust its kicker. I think Mario Cristobal will trust Miami's kicker because he's been pretty good and it was windy and this one's going to be indoors. But also like if he misses the first one, that might be.
- [78:26]
B
It. Yeah, I think he'll, he'll come in trusting it. Like, it's very easy to sort of justify whatever your trust because of the weather, I think. But yeah, if that first kick goes awry or even like if it's good, but like kind of looks like it wants to be go wide. Like, I think, I think that could change the calculus too. I'm. I'm just really not anticipating Ohio State kicking field goals in this.
- [78:47]
A
Game.
- [78:48]
B
Yep. But I think you could see Miami try.
- [78:50]
A
Them. When I was going through, I was doing short yardage stuff for our substack subscribers last Week. And I went through every third down and fourth down, one or two yards to go situation that Ohio State had the entire year. I think they might have tried field goals. Like maybe it was either two or three times on those fourth down situations, including against Indiana, Big Ten title game. And as I was going through, I was like, well, not anymore. Not anymore. Like three yards is another. I think if they get any fourth and two where a field goal is on the board, I think they'll go for.
- [79:19]
B
It. Yeah, I think they will too, Dean. They'll target Bennett Christian the most in that situation. Or maybe.
- [79:24]
A
So. Bennett Christian they are, I think. What was it? It's like 36 runs with one or two yard to go and do or die situations. On third down or fourth down, 10 passes, seven of 10 passing. In those situations, three of the passes went to receivers, one went to C.J. donaldson, and six went to tight ends, led by Bennett Christian, the third string tight end, who has been thrown to more on 3rd and 1, 3rd and 2, 4th and 1, 4th and 2 than any other player on the team. Jeremiah Smith's first target in situations like that was in the Indiana game on that weird kind of route where it's like it's just.
- [80:01]
B
Him.
- [80:01]
A
Yeah. Which I guess has worked in the past, but didn't come close to working that.
- [80:04]
B
Time. Sure.
- [80:05]
A
Did. Carnell Tate targets situations. A big fat zero. Probably because he's never on the.
- [80:11]
B
Field. Yeah. They take him.
- [80:13]
A
Off.
- [80:13]
B
Yeah. Similar to Maryland or Miami taking Keante Scott off the.
- [80:16]
A
Field. Hey, Ryan, games on the line. Do you want Carnell on the field now? We're.
- [80:22]
B
Good. I bet if the game's in the line in this game, Carnell will be on the.
- [80:26]
A
Field. Okay. I bet in this game, if the game's on the line and Carnell's not on the field, he's going to run on the field. Carnell Tate is like, I.
- [80:33]
B
Rehabbed.
- [80:34]
A
Yeah. For a month. And it's third and one from the eight yard line with four minutes left and we're down by two. And you're telling me to come.
- [80:43]
B
Out.
- [80:43]
A
Yeah. Because we're putting Jelani Thurman in. I don't think so. I will fight Jelani Thurman and Bennett Christian at the same time to get on the field. That is not the play call. All right. I think it's time to make our picks. Nine and a half point spread, 41 and a half for the total. I will tell you like that. Nine and a half feels pretty right to.
- [81:08]
B
Me. You, but you, that's A new feeling. You thought it was a little much prior to digging into.
- [81:15]
A
Miami? A little bit. All right, I'll do my score.
- [81:18]
B
First.
- [81:18]
A
Yeah. My score that I thought I had before I got here, before I talked on this show, was 2316 Ohio.
- [81:27]
B
State. I get to 23.
- [81:32]
A
Safety. You have three touchdowns and a safety. Yeah. Not three field goals. Yeah. Weirdness. Just craziness. Maybe you go for two on some time, and then you're right. Like it. So, man, do we got to do scores with no field goals in them? We're just hardcore. Touchdown or.
- [81:53]
B
Nothing. Yeah. I mean, you don't have to, but I think it'd be silly to guess anything other than.
- [81:57]
A
That. All right. How am I getting to 23? Because I was just thinking about numbers and, like, how I like that. Like that. What feels like a good number. I thought 2316 felt like a.
- [82:07]
B
Good. I guess you could score three touchdowns and go for two.
- [82:11]
A
Twice. It's that. Yeah, they're not even kicking extra points, so that's. That's. That. That's actually where we are. Thank you for helping me figure that out. I was at 23:16, but I just have real questions about Miami's ability to do much against this Ohio State defense. And then that got me more, like, to 2314. But then I was like, do I really want to, like, live? Like, I'm taking Miami with the.
- [82:35]
B
Points.
- [82:35]
A
Yeah. My score's nine, and I was like, let's get the 2313. And, like, if I was betting my house on it, I just think a situation where, like, Ohio State gets a defensive score or it's a. It's a tough, physical game for two and a half quarters, and then Ohio State hits an explosive play, and all of a sudden they've pulled away, and now Miami's trying to catch up, and something goofy happens, and they get a strip sack. You know what I mean?
- [83:02]
B
Like. Yeah.
- [83:03]
A
Yeah. Like, that kind of thing that we've seen Ohio State do, It's what Ohio State, I think, does best. And. And it's one of these things, I think, in a college football playoff where a lot of the teams are defense first. I really think the separator here is that Ohio State, I think, has the most explosive skill guys in the playoff. And I'm not even sure it's a conversation now. We did a quarterback draft. We did a defense draft on this YouTube channel, on this podcast channel. We had an idea to do a skill position draft. We did not get there. It's something that we maybe could dork around with in some form in the next day or two. But, like, I just think when you think about Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, and then you run through, it's like, well, if the Oregon receivers are healthy, but they really haven't been. Kenyon Sadiq is a great tight end. We know that. But, like. Like, does Georgia have guys like that? Like, it's Zachariah Branch, but he's kind of almost like a Malachi Tony type, right? Like, yeah, had a weird year for Alabama. Like, the Indiana receivers are certainly good, but no offense to Elijah Surratt. No. Mark Cooper Jr. Who I think reportedly is back healthy, which is great. Like, you'd take Carnell Taton and Jeremiah Smith ahead of them. You just like, defense, defense, defense. The foundation of Ohio State is defense. But, like, the. The thing that would put somebody away in a tight defensive game is Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, who both have said in the last week that they are 100% right. And when you think the last time they were 100%, they combined for 247 yards and three touchdowns against Penn State. So if that's the world that we're living in, that's a world where you respect Miami's defensive line, where you understand that they're going to make things difficult, but then you just need one. You need one big one. So I think I'd rather be on the Ohio State side of things. So.
- [84:46]
B
2313.
- [84:47]
A
Okay. I think an 8 and 8 and a 7. Is that.
- [84:51]
B
Right?
- [84:51]
A
Yeah. Yes. An 8 and 8 and a 7.
- [84:53]
B
Okay. I think you and I are thinking this. Think about this mostly in the same way. I do think it's going to be tough for Ohio State to move the ball consistently, but I also want to be cognizant of, like, Ryan Day's offenses when they've had this, like, kind of extra time to repair. Like, usually come out with a little something, have a little more punch to them. And I think they could spring a big player, too, against Miami, but I don't. I don't think they're going to be in a position, like, to run it up. And I. I have a hard time seeing Miami score more than two touchdowns against Ohio State. So I'm gonna pick Ohio State, and I was, like, leaning toward a Miami cover, I think, for a lot of this, but I'm gonna. I'm gonna go. Ohio State covers. I'll say.
- [85:31]
A
2814. Okay. So you're then a half point on the over then, too? Yeah, I kind of like the under If I was betting anything, I'd bet the.
- [85:38]
B
Under. It's 40, 41 and a half. Yeah, 41 and a.
- [85:42]
A
Half. So, yeah, but then you get in the danger zone of, like, Ohio State, if they do what they did to Oregon last year, they'll have 41 and a half in the middle of the second quarter. So I don't think they'll be able to do that against the Miami.
- [85:53]
B
Defense. But we didn't talk about this. Like, both these teams play slow or at least have played slow. Could be a pretty low possession game, too. Yeah. When you're thinking about that and.
- [86:02]
A
You don't think Ohio, I mean, you know, again, our substack, if you guys, we're writing, we're putting up videos behind the scenes where we're doing extra shows on our substack. Bill and Doug osu.substack.com There's been, I think, throughout the season, a lot of great questions from our substack subscribers about if and when Ohio State gets up tempo. Is there anything about this game that would tell you that, like, now is the time, Ryan Day's back calling the plays. This Miami defensive front, like, if you feel like you can't block them, well, maybe you start going and let the offensive line get some momentum and all of a sudden you're running up to the line and you're trying to play fast. Is that, is that anywhere to.
- [86:41]
B
You? I think it could come into play with the idea that Bain and Mezzano don't come off the field. So do you think you can tire them out? I think is maybe not a bad thought. I really don't think, like, Ohio State's O line has handled tempo well this year. It just seems like they get out of sorts when Ohio tries to play.
- [86:57]
A
Fast.
- [86:57]
B
Okay. So I. But they're all. I, I'm anticipating it being a fairly pro Ohio State crowd, so I think they won't have to play on a silent count, which then maybe makes you a little more likely to play tempo. So I, I don't know. I think, I think overall the pace probably be the same of what we've seen from Ohio State, but maybe you might see them sprinkle in tempo a little more than I have.
- [87:16]
A
Previously. Okay, 2313 for me, 2814 for you. We will have another video on this YouTube channel and podcast feed after we'll have some kind of thing that the, the two coaches are going to have a news conference around, like, I think 1:30pm Central Time on Tuesday. So we'll have we'll have one more thing but we also are going to do our national picks for the other three semifinals for Indiana, Alabama, for Georgia Ole Miss and for Texas Tech, Oregon. So we will have that video and podcast coming your way as well. And then we will continue. We got, we gathered a lot of information at Media Day. We'll continue to write and provide some extra podcasts and video things for our substack subscribers over there if you guys want to come join us. But I feel good about the.
- [88:11]
B
Breakdown. I feel good about it too. Yeah, I was, I'm glad.
- [88:15]
A
We.
- [88:16]
B
I'm. It's one of the things where like I'm kind of glad it's over because you can really inundate yourself with information with a game like.
- [88:23]
A
This.
- [88:23]
B
Yeah. So I'm happy to get out of the.
- [88:25]
A
Way. And it is wild to think about last year. Miami's defense like just was not quite good enough to get them in the playoffs. But if we were sitting here breaking down Ohio State, Miami and Cam Ward was the Miami quarterback, it would be fascinating. Everything else is the same. If Cam Ward would have had two years of eligibility and they would have given him a million, $20 million in nil. Stay right. Whatever. He was the number one pick in the draft. He's had a really good rookie year like that. Cam Ward was in this.
- [88:57]
B
Game. Oh mama might pick Miami.
- [89:01]
A
Yeah. I mean it's the difference of a quarterback. And here's like I think with the Ohio State defense, I think you've got to go take something from them. I think you have to have somebody on your offense, probably the quarterback. But maybe it's a, it's an unbelievably physical receiver. Maybe it's a running back who's going to run through every tackle. You have to take something from them because they aren't going to give something to you. And I don't think Miami as good as Malachi Toney is, is he's a 5 11, 188 pound freshman who they throw him the ball short and tell him to go get more yards. I don't think they have a taker. The quarterback's not a taker and Cam Ward's a taker. Cam Ward is going to demand things. And so like, and then the question is if Ohio State gets through this game, it's like when do they face a taker? Now Fernando Mendoza. But they only scored 13 Indiana against Ohio State. But like he can certainly be that Dante Moore. They wind up facing Oregon. Sure could be that. Right. Like I Don't know how many other. Again, when you just start talking about, like, the best skill.
- [90:00]
B
Players. Trinidad Chambliss, if Trinidad Chambliss could.
- [90:03]
A
Maybe be that, like, with Kwan Lacey at running back, like, but, like, that's what. When you think about Ohio State, it's like Miami could do everything right. And then Jeremiah Smith just goes in as Jeremiah Smith. And you didn't do anything wrong as a defense, but there's a guy standing in the end.
- [90:17]
B
Zone. Yeah. And Carnell Tate, I think is that.
- [90:20]
A
Too. Carnell Tate is that too. And like, Bo Jackson at times.
- [90:24]
B
Is that could be that.
- [90:25]
A
Yeah. So. And then, like, Julian saying. I don't know if Julian saying is a taker, but he knows how to give it to the takers. Yeah.
- [90:32]
B
Right. Yeah.
- [90:33]
A
Yeah. So that's like. That's a very.
- [90:34]
B
Good. He's a taker.
- [90:35]
A
Facilitator. He's a taker, facilitator. Hey, Julian, would you say you're a taker, facilitator? That's gonna do it for the big game breakdown. We appreciate you guys letting us hang out and talk ball with you. We will also, with all the other things we're doing, we'll have a live pregame show as soon as this thing is over. On New Year's Eve. So last time we covered a game on New Year's Eve, there was a kick flying through the air as we. As the new year came.
- [90:57]
B
In. That is.
- [90:58]
A
True. And so tell your loved ones in advance. Maybe they want to hang out. They want to watch a ball drop. They want to celebrate the new year with friends and family. And you say, I want to celebrate the new year with Bill and.
- [91:09]
B
Doug. We'll be happy to be there with.
- [91:11]
A
You. We're happy to be there. And we'll both be dressed as a baby New Year. Well, one of us will be. We have to flip the coin to see who has to wear the diaper. One of us is the old man, and one's the diaper. My beard, when I had it, was gray, but I'm looking a little more like a baby right now, so I might be in the.
- [91:24]
B
Diaper. You could pull off a diaper. I don't think I could pull off a.
- [91:26]
A
Diaper. Baby New Year. All right. He's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Lamoris. We're appreciative of you guys being here. That's it. Cotton bowl, big game breakdown. And that was the Bill and Doug.