← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Ohio State vs. Michigan Picks and Big Game Breakdown
02:06:07
It's time to dive into Ohio State vs. Michigan and on this episode of The Bill and Doug Show, it's a deep look at the best rivalry in college football.
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- [00:00]
A
I'm a high note hitting songbird, but I'm also a bird watching backpacker.
- [00:06]
B
Wood thrush, three o'. Clock.
- [00:08]
A
Walmart has a wellness side too, with tons of things I need to feel good. From electrolytes to help keep me hydrated to soothing cough drops for after every show.
- [00:17]
C
Oh, man. How about waterproof boots, size 10?
- [00:20]
A
They've got half a billion things online, on the app and in store.
- [00:24]
B
Really?
- [00:25]
C
Who knew?
- [00:26]
B
Okay, was that you or the birds?
- [00:28]
A
Check out the wellness side of Walmart today.
- [00:30]
B
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- [01:27]
C
I will, I will be there. I, I secured my parking at Pioneer High School. Ready to go.
- [01:33]
B
Remember when there was that guy, the player, the linebacker from Pioneer High School who committed to Ohio State like it was such a big deal and then he came to Ohio State and then didn't do it.
- [01:44]
C
Oh, right. Michigan State. He flipped the Michigan. Yes, I do remember because I went to Pioneer High School, I believe with Ari to talk to him. And I remember part of the deal was like Pioneer High School for people who don't know, it's just, it's like across the street from Michigan Stadium. Yeah, like literally across the street. And that story, I can't remember the player's name but it was like Michigan didn't recruit him. He was across the street and they didn't screw to him. And, and when we went to that school, to the school to talk to him, we were in the coaches offices because by the way, Jim Harbaugh went to Pioneer High School and there was like a plaque in the office of like a Jim Harbaugh frame jersey that they had like made to honor him. And Michigan recruited that school so little that like Jim Harbaugh never even went over there to pick it up. Like it was just sitting there waiting. It was just sitting there waiting for him. That player I think turned out to not be very good. But yeah, he ended up going to Michigan State.
- [02:45]
B
Yeah, my caddy corner there. So we're gonna dive in here on this matchup. We're going to talk about the vibes, the feelings, Ryan Day and Sharon Moore, that kind of thing on a separate different two hour preview that we'll post on Wednesday about Ohio State Michigan, please, if you follow Bill and Doug, do not get confused between which two hour preview of Ohio State Michigan we're talking about. This is the ball talk, offense, defense, special teams, both sides of the ball for both teams here on YouTube and on your podcast feeds for free for the world. We'd love to bring it to you. The other one is subscriber feelings, thoughts, worries, joys from our substack subscribers and that will be on our substack feed only for subscribers later on Wednesday. And we'll also do what you watch and what you eat and what you're thinking on that show. So if you want to be a substack subscriber and listen, it's, we know there's a lot of people here and we're so grateful for it. We got to pump it up a little bit because like we got, we got bills to pay and we're just, we're, we're honored to be part of it. But we'd love to have you join us on Substack. Bill and Doug osu.substack.com Backslash the Game Special that'll get you a free trial up until the day before the Big Ten championship game. Also, go visit our friends at roback.com. do your holiday shopping. R H O-B-A C-K.com really cool gear for your favorite team. You love the Buckeyes. You go in, you click. Do you want a hoodie? You want a polo, whatever. Nice little design, subtle but classy. Support your team. Buy gifts for your family. Use the code BAD20B A D20 to get 20 off your first order. Let's get into some of the numbers. Bill Landis okay, 121st meeting Michigan leads the series 6251 to 6 because of the vacated 2010 game. There was a time before this little for this four game Michigan run you really were starting to to see see into the future. Could Ohio State get this back to even in the series and there is like some discrepancy about what the records are. I think at least there used to be about like who counts what or whatever and it's like, man, we're going to get to the point where, excuse me, somebody's going to say, hey, this series is tied. And somebody else isn't going to say this series is tied. And I was like, loaded for bear on that stuff. And then Michigan won four in a row, and we've backtracked from that a little bit. But Michigan did start off the series with a 13, 0 and 2 advantage in the first 15 games. So Ohio State likes to point out that since 1919, Ohio State actually has the edge 51, 49 to 4. Since Woody Hayes arrived in 1951, Ohio State has the edge 39, 31 and 2. Bill Landis. And when both are nationally ranked, according to the Ohio State game notes, the record in this game, and they are both nationally ranked in this game is 22, 22 and 4. So when they're both good, it's even.
- [05:49]
C
All right, let's. Let's break the tie in this game. I didn't know that.
- [05:54]
B
That's the one thing about this series that can be difficult is that sometimes one of the teams is not that good. But now what also happens is sometimes one of the teams is not that good. The team that's not that good still wins. Right. Which is what makes it a rivalry. But I do think when they're both good, it's different. Right. Is that fair to say. And we are in an era because Michigan is back. We are in an era of both good. Because Ohio State's been good every year for the past 20 plus years. But there was this stretch here with Michigan where it's like, if you're talking about what Ohio State's doing to them, well, it's like, well, they're not a competent football program. They definitely are a competent football program now. So. So that number means something to me, Bill, that we're. That's. Because that's what we're talking about. Two good football teams on Saturday.
- [06:41]
C
Yeah. It feels like. I. I don't know, like, when they're good, there's like. There's just like a little. It feels more pure. Right. It's a little less wonkiness. It's a little less like, yes. Throw out the record stuff. And it's more just like these are two really good football teams. Yeah. Which. I don't know. It makes it a little easier to analyze, I think, like, analyze and. And sort of like digest after it happens. Yeah.
- [07:03]
B
So this is the. Analyze the football. And then if we want to on the other show, we can throw out the records for that if we want to. This is.
- [07:08]
C
Sure.
- [07:08]
B
This is. This is a records matter.
- [07:10]
C
Show.
- [07:11]
B
This is interesting. I think this is the 10th time that Ohio State is going into Ann Arbor with no losses. The 10th time Ohio State is going to Ann Arbor with no losses. Do you know what their record is now? Is that the 11th time?
- [07:28]
C
1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8.
- [07:30]
B
It's the 11th time. The 11th time, no losses. Do you want to know what the record is?
- [07:36]
C
4 and 1.
- [07:37]
B
You. You nailed it. 1961, Ohio State 1. 1969 Ohio State lost. I think most Ohio State fans know the lore of that, right? The super softs off the national championship in 1968. They're undefeated. They go up there, a bunch of guys aren't feeling well, they lose. It's the beginning of the ten year war. It's the beginning of the lore of Bo Schembeckler. 1973, a tie. 1975 Ohio State 1. 1979 Ohio State 1. 1993 and 95, John Cooper, undefeated. No losses going into the game. One of the years they had a tie, no losses going into the game. They lost both times. 2013 Ohio State 1. 2019 Ohio State 1. 2023 Ohio State loss. This is going to Ann Arbor. So it's the odd years, right? It's got to be an odd year. Your Ohio State has not lost a game and they're for. And they're going to Ann Arbor to do that. Overall, the times when Ohio State was at least 110 going into the game. So now we're only in the modern era because actually in 2002 they were 120 because they played that little extra game at the beginning and that was at home. But this is just playing Michigan in general on Ohio State's at least 110 like they are now. 1995 lost, 2002-2006-2012-2013, 2019 1, 2022 and 23 lost. So they are 1, 2, 5 and 3 in those games. Okay, enough background, people. I like the background. I like the. I don't always do this for Ohio State, Minnesota, but I like the background. 121st meeting.
- [09:07]
C
You should do this for every game. Moving forward, I would love to know what the records are for Ohio State. Yeah, Indiana, when you do that.
- [09:14]
B
1931, Bernie Beeman came to Columbus with the Fighting Gophers and won. And since then Minnesota's lost 83 straight to Ohio State. Like that kind of thing. That's what you want to hear pregame show. We're going to start on special teams because there's something that Ryan Day said that I think maybe got past a lot of people on Tuesday. And it struck you. And then we started remembering things and it started beating us about the face with, oh my gosh, this is quite a thing here. What was it about special teams?
- [09:43]
C
Right. Like, so Ryan Day was asked different versions of like emotional kind of how you managing this kind of questions. And, and one of those answers, he sort of went back to the do your job thing. And, and in that he said specifically, we have to field kicks and we have to make kicks. Which is like, oh, you're talking about last year. But also, and then, but then you went and looked at some more stuff. It's like the first fielding kicks thing especially has been something that's popped up more than just in last year's game.
- [10:12]
B
Yeah, so what the ones last year, what were the two last year that were a thing? Right.
- [10:16]
C
Last year, Caleb Downs let a punt go over his head that bounced and then rolled to the nine. And Ohio State had to start backed up on that drive. And then on the opening kickoff of the second half, for some reason, Trayvon Henderson let the kick bounce. And then once you do that, like it's obviously it's a live ball and wherever you land on it, it's dead there. It's not like you can't let it bounce and then fair catch it. So he let it bounce and then landed on it at the six. And that's where Ohio State started its drive from.
- [10:45]
B
Yeah. So then I've, I mean, I've been rewatching. I just rewatched the whole 20, staying up till 3 o' clock in the morning the last three nights, doing one of two things. Watching Bryce Underwood or watching the last four Ohio State, Michigan games in general. 20, 21. Ohio State left the opening kickoff bounce and they started at the five yard line because as you said, like they, they wait for a fair catch, then it bounced and then they caught it, then they couldn't move. So that was a terrible thing that gave Ohio State terrible field position. And then in 2021, down, 28, 13 in 2021, like, it's go time. You got to do something. Kickoff. Julian Fleming dropped the kickoff, hit him in the hands, he dropped it, then he picked it up and only got to the 18 yard line. So like, now that you have activated in my head, let's catch kicks. It's like, oh my God. This might be the thing they are the worst at in the rivalry game is Ohio State suddenly can't catch kicks. Bill. And that to me is something of tightness in your own head because, like it's not that like you are physically incapable of it. Right. And you've been doing it forever. And I don't know, maybe the wind's swirling, but that feels like a mental thing.
- [12:01]
C
Sure. I think maybe in 21 there was some wind. I think last year the sun may have been an issue, but doesn't, doesn't excuse it either way. And it's very funny to me that that becomes a thing because, you know, we've had these ongoing conversations about Ohio State is never particularly dynamic in the return game, although shout out to Lorenzo Styles for breaking the kickoff return streak earlier this year. And our we always sort of fall back on. We'll just catch it because the offense, offense is good enough. Just, just catch the ball, start from where you start. And it's like they can't even do that in this game. So yeah, I don't know. Somebody had asked might we see someone different, like return punts to and like to like to weaponize it a little more than Ohio State has this year. And my answer is like, no. They're gonna put back there. I guess it's going to be Brandon Ennis because he's a guy who's been back there all year and even though it's been an adventure sometimes, he's probably the one they, they trust to catch it the most. So I don't think returning anything is on their mind. Simply, simply not letting it hit the ground, I think is where they're at with the return game.
- [13:07]
B
They want to give you the ball at the 25 yard line. In college football right now on kickoffs, they want to give you the ball, the 25 yard line and to start at the 5 instead because you can't catch the ball is unforgivable. So it's like a personal foul penalty. So. So this is actually a thing to watch and I like it when we can do something on the big game breakdown. By the way, of course we're going to do our picks at the end of this. That's the whole point of this. We're going to give you our picks for the game and then we're going to talk about feelings, what we think we're doing on the substack show. And by the way, if you're here, if you're watching, if you're enjoying it, like subscribe, tell a friend, drop a review on Apple podcasts if you're doing that. Join us in the comments, give us what you Think of what we're doing here. So that's a big thing. And by the. Michigan has benched its returner. So it's. It's not so. Saj Morgan fumbled a punt against Northwestern in a game that Michigan almost lost two weeks ago, and they benched him. And they have turned to Andrew Marsh. So Samaj Morgan has actually had trouble, like holding on to the ball in every aspect. He's had some drops this year offensively too. But that is an interesting thing because there's a chance Bill, Michigan did exactly kind of what you're talking about. They had trouble catching it. So their, their answer is to put their most dynamic player back there. And this, what has been a problem for Michigan could turn into a strength because he even ripped off a good return against Maryland. That it's like, okay, he's just one of those guys. We're going to talk about Andrew Marsh, the freshman receiver for Michigan a lot in this show. But it would be like if Ohio State was like, man, we cannot catch the ball. Put Jeremiah Smith back there. That's what Michigan is.
- [14:39]
C
Whoa. Yeah. Not to compare the gym, but yeah, yeah, I get what you're saying. Similar idea. He is.
- [14:46]
B
Andrew Marsh is. Is Michigan's version of Jeremiah Smith. It is the super dynamic young talent. So I have some stats comparing his freshman year. Jeremiah Smith's freshman year, you know, a season ago. Yeah, he's not Jeremiah Smith. He's Michigan's version of Jeremiah Smith. He's arguably the most dynamic receiver in a decade. So, like, that's what we're talking about here. And that they. That that's become their solution. Yeah, like, you know, it's like it's a. They. They've turned what's been a problem for them. It actually could turn into a positive. And in terms of talking about special teams, I would actually be on alert, man. Andrew Marsh is going to have the ball in his hands on some of these returns. He might be able to pop something because he's their most dynamic player.
- [15:24]
C
Yeah, he could be pretty. Is he doing punts and kickoffs?
- [15:27]
B
I think so because. Because he definitely. I definitely saw him on a kickoff against Maryland and the whole thing was like, he's replaced Samaj Morgan on punt return. So I think he is doing both.
- [15:37]
C
I mean, kickoff you can at least try to control a little bit. Just booted out of the end zone and don't give them a chance. Punt return could be interesting because we know that Ohio State's punter, Joe McGuire does not have a lot of leg so there could be some opportunities there for, for Marsh. I wonder too if like if Michigan as a strategy at least early like may not kick it out of the end zone on kickoffs because in their mind they're thinking, well these guys kind of drop these sometimes. Let's see if they'll do it again, let's see if they'll do it again. And maybe let's see if we can't get that thing between the 10 and the goal line and see what happen happens. Yeah, no, I don't think there's any.
- [16:09]
B
Reason to be afraid of Ohio State's return game.
- [16:14]
A
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- [16:50]
B
Wood Thrush three o' clock.
- [16:52]
A
Walmart has a wellness side too with tons of things I need to feel good from electrolytes to help keep me hydrated to soothing cough drops for after every show.
- [17:01]
C
Oh man. How about waterproof boots size 10?
- [17:04]
A
They've got half a billion things online, on the app and in store.
- [17:08]
B
Really?
- [17:08]
C
Who knew?
- [17:10]
B
Okay, was that you or the birds?
- [17:12]
A
Check out the wellness side of Walmart today.
- [17:16]
B
And then field goal kicking is just a mess on both sides. And and I will we'll start with Jaden fielding who is 2 of of 5 on field goals against Michigan the last two years. So in 2023 he missed a 52 yarder at the end of the first half and last year he missed a 34 yarder and a 38 yarder and again they lost by three points. He's he's 42 of 52 in his career at Ohio State. Jaden fielding is he's 2 of 5 against Michigan, 40% and 40 of 47 against everybody else. 85%. I if I just am not going to assume anything about Jaden Fielding walking on the field in Ann Arbor Saturday because there's nothing in his think he misses so a 52 yard at the end of the half. What are you gonna do. But like, I think he missed two field goals against Michigan last year because it was the Michigan game and it's nervy and so I just, I, My analysis of it is, I don't care what he's done during this season or in the rest of his career. He showed last year that he can miss easy field goals in the Michigan game and I think that has a chance to be a factor.
- [18:23]
C
I think it does too. My only analysis of it is that I, like, they are gonna try their hardest to not put them out there. Like, I don't, I don't have a, I don't have an Ohio State field goal in my score prediction. Because, because of. I, I did my first score prediction. I had a field goals. Like they're not going to get a field goal. They're not even going to, gonna attempt it. I don't think. Yeah, it's an issue like. And it's not. It'd be one thing if it was just like the 50 yard conversation we've had in the past about Jaden Fielding because he's not good from distance, but he's pretty good otherwise, unless he's playing Michigan like those, those were NFL extra points he missed last year and pretty sterile conditions aside from it being cold. Right. So I, I just like a wholly unreliable part of Ohio State's game going into this.
- [19:08]
B
Yeah. And, and I, if I were Ryan Day, I wouldn't have any trouble putting him on the field in the Big Ten championship game or the playoff. I just. In the Michigan game, I, you have to think about it differently, I think. And then the, the issue for Michigan now is like their field goal kicker who was a first team all American last year is the same guy, Dominic Zavata. And he's lost it. He's absolutely lost it. Last year he was 21 of 22 on field goals and seven from seven from 50 yards or more, including a 54 yarder that he drilled against Ohio State that won them the game. The field goal kicking difference was the difference in the game last year. Everything else came down the field goals. Ohio State missed two makeable ones and Michigan drilled one they had no business making 21 of 22 last year, 7 of 7 for 50, 12 of 19 this year, 1 of 2 from 50 plus. The last three weeks he has missed three field goals against Northwestern and Wrigley Field. He missed a 34 yarder from the right hash that he pushed right. Then he missed a 60 yarder that had the distance that he missed right and Against Maryland last week he had one from the left hash that he also pushed right. So he has missed three field goals the last two weeks pushing kicks to the right. And last week against Maryland it felt like what we have seen with Ryan Day in Ohio State during the course of this season, a situation where you could go for it in a game where you have in hand and you choose to put the field goal kicker out there. And it felt like Sharon Moore was trying to get Dominic Zavata going after he missed two at Northwestern and then he missed another 30 yarder. So they're the, the, he was the best kicker in the country last year. He's missed seven kicks this season. Like it is, it is like a real thing this year for Michigan that he's the same guy, but he's a completely different guy.
- [21:04]
C
But do you think because he was so good last year, including in this game, that Drew more probably will trust him a little more than Ryan Day might trust Jaden Fielding?
- [21:12]
B
Yeah, I think so. And I, I think it's, it, it's, I think it is realistically two kickers in the game that I don't think I would trust either of them. But I think one coach will trust his kicker and one won't. And so then is that a plus or a negative?
- [21:33]
C
Tune in to find out. I don't know.
- [21:36]
B
Ryan Day is not going to ask Jaden Fielding to, to try kicks that I think Sharon Moore will ask Dominic Zavata to try kicks.
- [21:43]
C
And yeah, that was the crazy thing about fieldings missed from 50 in 2023. It's like they played for the field goal. They were, they were kind of driving and could have pressed it and tried to score a touchdown or at least get closer. And Ryan Day just like let the clock run out because he was in his Michigan shell shock on the sideline and never called the timeout. Right.
- [22:02]
B
But they, and they won't do that this year.
- [22:05]
C
For their sake, I hope they don't.
- [22:07]
B
Yeah.
- [22:07]
C
Yeah.
- [22:08]
B
So, okay, so that's, that's where we are in special teams and that was worth it because it swung the game last year and sometime say ah, special teams, whatever. Not the case in a game like this. Now we're going to break down both sides of the ball and I want to start because I did a thing. Is that okay with you?
- [22:24]
C
Sure.
- [22:24]
B
Yeah. I took Michigan offense versus Ohio State defense. Ohio State's defense has allowed nine touchdowns and eight field goals in 11 games. 7.6 points per game. I think you could argue they, I think they've given up like six touchdowns with their first team defense on the field and three of them, two are against the backups and one was like sort of half backups, half starters or at least like Caleb Downs wasn't in the game. So I think it's not unfair to say they've really kind of given up.
- [22:53]
C
Like.
- [22:56]
B
I don't know, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. You know what, it might be five touchdowns and four against backups. They gave up one against Texas, one against Ohio, one against Illinois with everybody on the field and then two against Penn State. I actually think it's five touchdowns with the first team defense and one of the ones against Penn State was a short field after a fumble. It's like they started at the 13.
- [23:21]
C
So I think one against Ohio was a one one place one play. Yeah, yeah.
- [23:26]
B
But it was at least against the starters. But it was like yeah, they just beat Lorenzo Styles in a slot fade and then that Hendrix guy ran away from everybody. So I think the first team defense has given up five touchdowns in 11 games. Is that good?
- [23:39]
C
Seems, seems pretty good. Yeah.
- [23:43]
B
I did not get it done yet. It's going to be on our sub stack site soon. How often the best, the better the better when you're comparing two things it's er. When it's only better when you're comparing three or more than it's best. So it's not the best defense in this game. It's the better defense in this game because only two teams are playing grammar corner. The better defense in the Ohio State Michigan game usually wins And I don't. That's not how I've thought about it in the Ryan Day era because you think about offense, offense, offense, offense but this Ohio State defense just so everybody has a handle on this, the Brian Fromau index that we like those ratings which are a drive to drive measure of a defensive success. The top three defenses since 2007 when Brian Fromau started this they are number one Alabama 2016 number three Georgia 2021 number two Ohio State this year that's what we're talking about. We're Talking about the second best defense in the last 18 years in college football by one measure. That's what we are talking about stop rate which is how often like you get a an offense off the field without scoring basically. Ohio State's third in the country. Texas Tech is first. San Diego State is second points per drive Ohio State first in the country overall success rate the do your job defensive success play to play rate. They are 13th in the country because they kind of let you do a little bit here and there before they really shut you down. SP plus defensive rating. Ohio State is first. So, like, this is what we're talking about, Bill. We are talking about not just if you're talking about the best defense in the country, it's Texas Tech, Ohio State and maybe Oklahoma in there a little bit. Right. So I think those are probably the best three, and those are all three at the moment, playoff teams. But I think some of this other stuff we're not talking about. I think you can call Ohio State the best defense in the country outside if people in Lubbock would complain. But we're also talking about, like a historic level, good defense. Not just good for this year, good for the last two decades.
- [25:46]
C
Yeah, they keep flashing up every time they're on tv, like the. Whatever. And I don't, I don't know where they get it from because I don't have access to numbers, but, like the fewest amount of points allowed by a team within so many games. And I think last week they put them up there and whatever, it was 7.5. And like every other team they were grouped with won a national championship.
- [26:05]
B
Right.
- [26:06]
C
Like, Joel Clatt ran through that. So. And they've been doing that all year. So.
- [26:09]
B
Yes, this is Georgia, the Georgia 2021. In here, it's Michigan 2023. It's what you're talking about. Yes.
- [26:14]
C
A Florida state from the 90s, I think, in there too. Right. Yeah. Just, I mean, it's, it is a cliche. It is probably the biggest football cliche that the defense wins championships. But it happens to be truthful. And, and I'm the, the fact that you. And again, it's not surprising, like, the defense wins the game is not surprising either. But to your point, like, I have never really thought about it in those terms. Those terms either. Primarily because Ohio State for the first half of Ryan Day tenure was an offense first team that for a couple years had terrible, terrible defense. And now it's kind of flipped. They still have a very good offense, but this is a defense first team.
- [26:56]
B
And so just like some of these comparisons for an offense defense comparison for Ohio State, Michigan, again from Ohio State's one on defense, Michigan's 18 off 18th on offense, SP plus Ohio State's first on defense. Michigan is 45th on offense. So this is, this is a, you know, Michigan's got a challenge on its hands. We just want to, like, foundationally, when you talk about this side of the ball, what you have to start with is we one of the units is the best in the country. Besides watching Bryce Underwood, I watched four games of Arvel Reese. I rewatched the Penn State game and the last three games and I have bad news and I have good news about Arbel Reese. I just watched him play football every single snap. And during the course of the broadcast, they're still in the mode of saying, like, Arvell Reese, incredibly disruptive. And they show all these stats, right? And they zero in on him. And here's the truth. The last three games, Arvell Reese has not been disruptive. He, he. It is like, factually correct. He has not been disruptive. The number of pressures by game. So I didn't count the Grambling game, but number of pressures by game, 5, 2, 2, 3, 4, 3 3. And now the last three games, he has one total in three games. He's not been disruptive. Facts. Here's the good news. He's not trying. He is in neutral. He has been in neutral for three games. And this is zero about Arvel Reese. This is not Arvel Reese packing it in this. You watch this, this, this way, and you have brought it up several times. Have they kind of dialed back, powered down Arvell Reese? You brought it up. You've said things like that and you do more, much more film rewatch than I do. So I was like, well, I want to double check. Have they powered down Arvell Reese? And comparing what he did in the Penn State game and then what he's done in the three games since, it's like a different player. So what he is doing the last three games, there's a lot of floating from Arvel Reese that they are even when they put him on the line. Because if you look statistically, how many snaps to see in the box, how many snaps is he up on the line of scrimmage? It's about the same the last three games that it is during the course of the year. Like, it's not that they're doing that. He typically lines up over the left tackle. We'll talk about what that matchup might be with Blake Frazier, who's a redshirt freshman who was not the starting tackle at the beginning of the year for Michigan, but came in because of an injury. He's usually over the left tackle. And what he is doing the last three games, he either doesn't rush, he sort of like starts, stops, starts and then stops. And then like pens in the quarterback hovers. He draws a double team. There's a running back to help. There's a chip if the, the line is sliding a certain way towards him and he's winding up with a guard and a tackle on him, things like that. And he is freeing up people and I'll get to more about that in a second. Or he is going straight into the tackle and he is stalemating that tackle. But when he goes into that tackle, he does not try a move. He has not tried to move in three games. He doesn't, he doesn't, he doesn't try. Like, he's not going in the toolbox. And then like, so I watched them in reverse. I watched Rutgers, then ucla, then Purdue, then Penn State. And you go to Penn State, when he engages that tackle, then he's ripping the guy, then he's spin moving the guy. When he goes out, he's doing like, he had the jab step, sack, right? He's, he, like, he's breaking people's ankles. He's like Luka Doncic, he's like, he's like a, he's like, I'm a 6, 7, physical point guard and he may as well, he may as well have a basketball in his hands when he's crossing over a tackle. He's like, what if Allen Iverson played linebacker? And he is, he is breaking guys down and with the jab step pass rush. Haven't seen it in three games. He has not tried it. They are not asking him to do that.
- [30:50]
C
So.
- [30:53]
B
Get ready because guess what they're gonna do on Saturday.
- [31:00]
C
Yeah.
- [31:00]
B
They're going to activate Orville Reese. And you're right, he has been powered down for three games. They put him back in the plastic and now they're like, it's Christmas morning and you got your superhero toy and they're opening him back up and he's going to Ann Arbor.
- [31:18]
C
Half of his snaps against Rutgers were coverage snaps.
- [31:22]
B
He floats. He, he is up. He menaces and drops, but he doesn't menace and attack. He did not menace an attack for three games.
- [31:31]
C
Right.
- [31:33]
B
Purposeful by Ohio State.
- [31:34]
C
I, I, you may know this better than I do because I didn't go back. I had the other side of the wall, so I didn't go back and watch those games from that perspective. Like, not lined up inside a lot either, right? Like against, against Texas, he was bull rushing guards all, all day. And I don't think they've had him in that position like, at all over the last three games.
- [31:54]
B
So let's talk about that a little bit. There were a couple plays when he was inside on the Kaden Curry strip sack against Rutgers, Arvell Reese and Sonny Stiles were inside over the guards and centers, right, menacing the two linebackers. Reese actually dropped into coverage on that play. But Styles came and got doubled like the back helped on Sonny Styles up the middle. So he got double teamed and then there was no help for the tackle. And Kaden Curry undressed the tackle and got a strip sack. But the back, I think helped inside partly because, right, you take the closest pass rusher to the quarterback, so you've got to help inside anyway. But also when Arvell Reese and Sonny Stiles are standing in the gaps over the center, people are aware of that. So Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles helped Kaden Curry get that sack because once Kaden Curry made a great individual play, that tackle was on an island because the help was inside. So that was an instance of Orville Reese was lined up inside. He didn't even come. But the menace of Arvell Reese had a role in a Caden Curry strip sack at the goal line. Other big play against Rutgers, they lined up six guys on the line of scrimmage to look like they were going to bring six. Both Sonny Stiles and Arvell Reese are in the middle again. What they do is they bring both Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles up the middle, but both ends drop. So they are rushing four with the two defensive tackles on the two linebackers. And then they also sweep Caleb Downs in from the outside and he splits the gap like a running back because Sonny Stiles is getting doubled by the running back and the right guard. And Arvell Reese is getting doubled by the center and the left guard. And Caleb down split them and sacked eggs and Caliac Manis in a, in a nanosecond. And it's because they brought the two menacing linebackers up the middle. Arvell Reese didn't get a sack, but he played a role in Caleb Downs's gigantic sack. So that like. And those are actually, those might be like Arvell Reese's two best plays of the last three games was him menacing in a way that set up other guys to get sacks. But he is not dropping moves on people. And to your point, when they're moving him around the line and really trying to do stuff, most of the time when they've moved him around, they've dropped him, they've. He's. He's been in coverage a lot. He was like running down the. There was a play, was 25 yards down the field, covering, yeah, right like there, like there are. So they. You and I talked. I think going into the three games are good. Are they gonna like rest guys? Are they gonna do anything differently? And the answer with Arvel Reese was undoubtedly yes. So refresh yourself with what Arvell Reese is and what he can do because he hasn't been doing it for a month. On purpose.
- [34:49]
C
Yeah, he was, he was load managing on the field. Which guys do you know, you could. You see that happen from time to time. It happens basketball too. You just kind of park yourself in the corner, let the other guys play a little bit. Yeah, I think they were very much doing that. But I. Yeah, every expectation in the world that Matt Patricia has been sitting on some ideas for Arvell Reese in this game.
- [35:13]
D
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- [35:44]
A
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C
Sort of.
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B
My cousin Freddy showed up to surprise us.
- [35:51]
A
Oh, sounds like a real nice surprise.
- [35:53]
B
Exactly. So now I have to get him a gift, but I haven't gotten my bonus yet. So if we can make it something really nice but also not break the bank, that'd be perfect.
- [36:01]
A
How about a keurig for 50% off.
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C
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D
We're with you all the way.
- [36:09]
C
Walgreens offer valid November 26th through December 27th. Exclusions apply. Yeah.
- [36:16]
B
So you like? It was a good re watch. Because it was. You have to watch it because the stats. The stats tell you half the story. But you have to. It's almost amazing to be like, wow, they are saving this dude. So anyway, okay. Other stuff on like some defensive guys that matter for Ohio state. Kaden Curry 10th best pass rush win rate in the Big Ten. Kenyatta Jackson is 39th or two edge guys. Kaden Curry 36 pressures seventh in the Big Ten. KenyattA Jackson 28, Arvel Reese 23. Arvl Reese had 22 pressures in his first eight games and one pressure in his last three. Right. This is just what we're talking about. There was a time like the first month R.L. reese was like fourth in the Big Ten impressures. He's like in the 40s now, right? Ohio State does not blitz quarterbacks who can move. Do you think they will blitz Bryce Underwood?
- [37:11]
C
Yes, because I think Bryce Underwood, yeah, I think he is. He has shown he's a freshman. He's not good against splits. He's, I, I watch, watching, watching. The last two games against Maryland and Northwestern, they blitzed him into mistakes.
- [37:27]
B
Ohio State only blitzed Ryan Brown and Purdue 35 of the time. They Brits, they blitzed Demon Williams and Washington 23 of the time. The more static quarterbacks they've gotten after more often. Right? So this would, this is interesting. It is an interesting decision because, like, the whole thing with Devon Williams in Washington, they sacked him six times. Four of the six sacks came when they did not blitz. They were covered sacks, right? They were. Pen the quarterback in, don't let him escape. There's nothing there. There's nothing there. And finally you go get him, right? You spy him, you, you cage him and there's nowhere to go. We'll get, we're going to get more into the Michigan stuff, specifically. Bryce Underwood's pretty good at escaping up the middle. I, I feel like when, sometimes when young quarterbacks scramble, like, they run backwards and then like, try to get outside in a way that like, Ohio State often doesn't let you do. He's had a decent, he's had some decent scrambles where a pocket collapses around him and he goes forward and it's third and four and he goes and gets his six yards and, and makes a decision and goes. So this, I, this is a, I think this is a pretty big decision by Matt Patricia in the cat and mouse game of. Do you want to heat up a young guy or do you want to cage him in and make him throw? Right now he, his scramble yards aren't through the roof and the design runs almost don't exist. But there are decent scrambles if you just watch. In the last couple games, there's some decent scrambles here and there, especially on a couple third downs where he can do some stuff.
- [39:00]
C
I, I, that's, I, I have like a different kind of view on it. I just, I really thought, no, I didn't go back and watch the whole season. I just, I've watched the last two games. I thought he, I, I didn't think he was seeing the blitz well at all. I thought when he was blitzed and in the pocket he looked uncomfortable. And when he was effective as a scrambler, Was sort of like what he was already designed to be out of the pocket and then just like they do roll the pocket, they roll the pocket.
- [39:26]
B
Kept running.
- [39:28]
C
His last three games against the Blitz, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland. He's 9 of 17 for 84 yards, 4.9 yards per attempt, one touchdown, two picks and a pressure to sac rate of 33.3% which is pretty high. Okay.
- [39:43]
B
You would blitz him. You, Bill in his defensive coordinator blitz him. You think Matt Patricia, defensive coordinator, will blitz him?
- [39:50]
C
Yeah.
- [39:51]
B
Okay. I'm not sure. I'm curious because I do. The hard thing about Underwood is there is he might have the longest distance between floor and ceiling of any quarterback in the power four. Like when he's. He can look really good at times and then he couldn't let can look young the next play.
- [40:14]
C
Yeah, he's. We've talked a lot all year, right. About how good Julian Saying is against the blitz. He remains the highest graded passer in the country against the blitz. Bryce Underwood's 52nd.
- [40:24]
B
Okay, okay. A little bit more. In Ohio State, they're, they're just. Defensively, they're so good in every stat that it's like, well, they're good at this, they're good at that. It's like, well, they're good at everything. Passing yards allowed per game. Their first 127 passing yards allowed per game. Opposing passer rating. They're fourth in the Power Four. They've allowed five touchdown passes. They have six interceptions. This is not a defense that turns people over very much. They have 12 turnovers, six fumble recoveries, six interceptions. That's 88 in the nation. So it's not a big thing that they do. They have 29 sacks. That's 23rd in the nation. 67 tackles for loss. That's 38th. This is, it is more predicated on stopping you. As we've covered this many times. It is not about turning teams over necessarily. It is not always about like, we're going to light you up and get 10 sacks and destroy you. We're just going to make it very hard for you to do your job consistently. We're not going to let stuff get over our head. And if we make you make seven good plays on a drive to score a touchdown, we think you can't do seven good plays. And that's the part of me a little bit that with the, the, the, the, the ceiling of Bryce on Underwood, but like maybe the inconsistencies. Can Bryce Underwood make seven good throws in a drive? If you sit back and challenge him to do that. I don't know if he can. So I think I'm, I'm fascinated by this to see how much they light him up and how much they sit back. But I mean, you're right, the numbers are the numbers.
- [41:51]
C
So I don think, I think you'll see them pressure him more on like early downs. I don't know that they'll do it on passing downs because then you like sort of worry about his scrambling and I think he has, he might have the most first down scrambles like on third down this year among any quarterback. I, I think, I think I might have saw that or maybe it's just in the Big Ten. So I don't think they're gonna like come out and suddenly have like a blitz rate of 70 in this game.
- [42:18]
B
Right.
- [42:18]
C
And like, but I do think on early downs they'll blitz them and see if they can't force him into a turnover because he just, he doesn't want to take the sack. So then he'll like. He had a play against Maryland where he got blitz, he had a guy in his face and he should have just ate it and instead he tried to throw it across his body over the middle and it should have been a pick six. But the guy from Maryland, because Maryland spent that entire game on both sides of the ball dropping the football.
- [42:45]
B
He threw that ball sidearm 30 yards down the field and air mailed a guy into the chest of a defensive back. Yeah, I, I, it's like how many guys are throwing sidearm 30 yard throws outside the pocket like nobody. But they wound up scoring a touchdown on that drive. But in the midst of that touchdown drive, he hit a Maryland defensive back in the numbers and it should have been picked right.
- [43:13]
C
And it's not like he doesn't do that all the time. Like he's, he's accurate. He can, he's got a lot of, lot of stuff in his arsenal. I just think like young guys can, can get pressured into doing some goofy stuff sometimes and he's not immune to that.
- [43:26]
B
But he's, he hasn't shed it that I think like he's not, it's not.
- [43:30]
C
Like, oh say it's gotten worse because.
- [43:33]
B
I think it has.
- [43:35]
C
Yeah. If you look at this. Yeah, it's like, I think it's because like he's more confident, right. Like he has played well for stretches and it's like, I got this, I'm good, I know what I'm doing. And then teams are throwing different stuff at you and it's like maybe you don't got it just, just yet. But yeah, his turnover worthy plays are like they've seen a decent uptick the last three or four games that they're.
- [43:52]
B
Letting him do more. He's like, I'm ready for more. And then there are more mistakes but along with more great plays. Because like when you go back and watch the Northwestern game, the whole thing of the Northwestern game is this is the best Bryce Underwood has played. He also made three ridiculous mistakes in that game and they almost lost. So what's the thing? It's like he played the best game of the year against Northwestern. They kicked the field goal in the last play of the game to win. It's like, why was that the case? Well, because he also air mailed some throws. He misses high. He, when he misses, he'll miss high over the middle. And so there's, there are going to be opportunities for Ohio State DBs to make plays. Whether it's off a tip or whether it's someone just like all of a sudden the ball's in your chest. Are you going to catch it or not? But then he'll get in the RPO game and he'll just. He's amazing. He's. He's a great wash because when he's on, he is quick. He is quick with a rip man. Like it is out of his hand. Yeah.
- [44:49]
C
Which is not like, that's health. He, he is. I don't think every young quarterback is willing to throw it down the scene, but he has the juice.
- [44:58]
B
Yes.
- [44:58]
C
Do it. And that has been. That's where oh Isa's defense has been vulnerable this year. They've not really played a quarterback who's done it consistently recently. Popped up like two times against Washington, popped up a time or two against Illinois, popped up a time or two against even like Penn State. But no one has just like gone down the field like scene ball, scene ball, seam ball. And of course like if that were to happen, Matt Patricia would adjust. But under what I think will attempt and, and make probably more of those throws than the previous quarterbacks Ohio State has faced.
- [45:29]
B
But we, we did a whole show earlier in the week on sort of the, the quarterback mistakes that Ohio State has made the past two years for Ohio State in this game, it has to be the case that the Michigan quarterback makes more mistakes than the Ohio State quarterback. That has to be the case because that has been their calling cards. Julian saying is efficiency. Bryce Underwood is a little bit high, ceiling, low floor, is capable of great plays, but is capable of mistakes. And so they have to take advantage of when Bryce Underwood does air mail a throw. They have to whatever, whether it's blitzing frequently or just blitzing strategically or Kenyatta Jackson or Kaden Curry blowing up these tackles that might be there for the taking and forcing him into some plays because they'll also force him into some situations where he'll make a play. But they have to. They have to force him into mistakes and then capitalize on them when they happen. And it can't be the kind of game for Ohio State where Bryce. Where they drop three interceptions from Bryce Underwood and Julian saying makes mistake and it's a pick six, right? Like, that's the kind. So they, they. It's just the way these quarterbacks play and the fact that one's a redshirt freshman has been around a little bit longer and one's a true freshman, so that's a real thing. I also want to make sure we note that Davidson is playing awesome. Is he not for Ohio State?
- [46:46]
C
Sure is. Yeah.
- [46:47]
B
Davidson ignosin the first five games was targeted 18 times and gave up 11 catches. The last six games he's been targeted 19 times. He's given up four catches. He's playing an all American level. And Andrew Marsh and Donovan McCully give Michigan real receivers. Davis, Nick Bignosian is gigantic in this game because he only has three penalties this year. He is smothering people with his coverage. He is playing with it. He's always been a very confident player. Davis and Igbignosan is playing the best football of his Ohio State career in the last part of his senior season. And it is incredibly impactful. And it just is really going to matter because guess what? Michigan actually has threats in the passing game. And Jermaine Matthews has had a couple penalties the last couple games. And like, there have been times it's like, oh, who's the better quarterback for Ohio State? Davis. Nick Benosin is not that Jerry Matthews is playing bad. IGB has been. Has been great, and I think he's going to play a huge role on Saturday.
- [47:45]
C
Yeah, I think Jermaine has had more, like, ball production in terms of interceptions. Although the interception that Davidson made against Rutgers was awesome. It just got called back for a, For a penalty. Yeah, I mean, they're, they're both, they're both huge. I, I think the McCullough's got size. Right? So that, that's the, that's the matchup. That is interesting to me because. Because Davidson's a huge corner and he was in a matchup, you know, this past week with Rucker, with, With two pretty big receivers as well. Those were, those were physical matchups, like, down the field. I think, you know, one thing you have to watch in this game is how that might get officiated with Davidson against Donovan McCully. I, you know, you kind of just hope they let them play because I'm sure they're going to be pushing and grabbing each other the, the whole game. But Davidson has that reputation, so, like, you know, he's done a good job of not putting himself in, like, compromised positions this year, but he's, he's definitely gonna have to do it in this game because he's going to be, I think, in another kind of physical battle with a pretty big, big receiver in this one.
- [48:41]
B
Lorenzo Styles was hurt last week, had a shoulder issue. Ryan Day said on Tuesday that he's gonna practice this week, so it, it certainly feels like he could be back in this game when he was hurt last week. League Bryce west actually out snapped Devin Sanchez last week. Typically, their answer has been in those situations that Jermaine Matthews moves inside to the slot. When Lorenzo Styles was hurt, that's what happened against Illinois, and Jermaine Matthews started there, and then they played Devin Sanchez as a starting outside corner instead of just in their dime package. But they really went to Bryce west in the slot a lot for this. And so that it was west in the slot. And then when they needed a deep safety, when they go to that dime package and Lorenzo Styles usually drops back deep, they were putting Leroy Roker in there in that spot. So Devin Sanchez has been thrown at when he's been in games, whether it's because of an injury or whether it's because of his situational role. I think if Lorenzo Styles can't go, I think I would expect to see Bryce west because I do think it's just, it's Devin Sanchez, he's a true freshman. Stuff happens. Has kind of been the weak link in the past game, and I don't know that they want to put him out there for 50 snaps if for some reason Lorenzo Styles can't play. So I actually am sort of anticipating that it will be Bryce west in the slot if you need to fill a. An injury spot there.
- [50:03]
C
I, I agree. I think Sanchez will continue to play his, like, dime roll. But yeah, and the other. Because the other thing to consider too is, you know, Michigan is going to run it a lot. Wes is a better tackler, so. And Jermaine Matthews is a good tackle. In corner as well. But west might even like at least probably like whatever it's pff. Tackling grade. Wes has a higher grade than, than Matthew so it's. I think you have to do that calculation as well. Now as we mentioned before, how much does the nickel play in this game? Because how much are you going to play Peyton Pearson three linebackers. But when you are playing the nickel you still want to make sure you're sound against the run. And I think Bryce west probably gives them a better chance of it.
- [50:45]
B
But also we think there's a decent chance Lorenzo Styles is okay in place.
- [50:49]
C
I bet he tries. Yeah. I'd be like it's his, he's from Ohio. He's a fifth year guy. It's his last OSU Michigan game. Like and the thing like he hurt his shoulder but the shoulder's like been a thing all year and it's not kept him out long term. So I bet he tries to give it a go. Yeah.
- [51:06]
B
Reminder on Caleb Downs all over the place. He's going to be all over the place trying to get in Bryce Underwood's head 38 of the time he's at deep safety 34 of the time in the box 23 of the time. It kind of in coverage and 5% of the time I bought the line. It's just like, like it's great to watch that guy move around, isn't it?
- [51:22]
C
Yeah. He had a really good game last week.
- [51:25]
B
He did. And, and it's one of those like you can see Orville Reese be put in neutral for three games and Caleb down still running around like a maniac. It's like I want to say that they played this defense plays so heavy that even it's like when I say that, that Arvel Reese was kind of in neutral. It's like what he was just doing is sort of like running into people really hard and kind of like knocking heads but not doing the next thing right. But he's still being really physical. He's throwing his body in into the run game. He's, he's, he's running into tackles who have a hundred pounds on him. He's just not using all of his natural ability to try to get away from him. But like Caleb Downs just like running around like a maniac and just hitting people heavy. This defense is so heavy. They play with such, they, they're so fast but then they're so physical at the point of attack. Right. There's no finesse to them even though they are. They're sort of like they're like, they're like a cheetah when they're tracking you down. And then once they get to you, then they're a rhino and then they're sticking their horn right in you and it's like, my God, how did you get here? And it's like form of a cheetah, shape of a rhino. And it's like, how can you be both at the same time? Will we see a lot of Peyton Pierce Last year against Michigan, Arvell Reese started as a third linebacker and played 36 snaps while Jordan Hancock, the slot guy, only paid 20. So they were in three linebacker a lot last year, but the three previous games to that actually, like the third linebacker did not play as much as I thought. And so I don't, I don't. I'm curious to see how this goes. And when you watch Michigan, they play 12 personnel a decent amount, but they also have three receivers on the field a lot. They're spreading you out, right? Like they're, they're not only condensed. I'm. What do you think? Do you think it is going to be a lot of Peyton Pierce?
- [53:22]
C
Yeah. Because if you. Well, it depends on like Samaj Morgan's the third receiver.
- [53:26]
B
Right.
- [53:27]
C
But is he like, is he so much in the doghouse that they're not going to play him? He didn't make a trip last week.
- [53:30]
B
Week. Right.
- [53:31]
C
For the Maryland game. And then like, like the next receiver is Channing Goodwin, but I feel like he plays like a tight end. So like, I, I don't know.
- [53:39]
B
They had a play against Maryland where like Shannon Goodwin was lead blocking and Jake Butt was like, he looks like Max Bredesen out there. And it's like Max Bredeson's a fullback. Right? So.
- [53:47]
C
Yeah, yeah. Like, I mean, Goodwin is a receiver. Like, he's not even built like a tight end, but I just feel like he keep. He plays like one. He's. Yeah, he's been. Channing Goodwin has 296 snaps and 162 of them he's been a run blocker.
- [53:59]
B
So.
- [54:01]
C
So I don't know. I think you, I think you could respond to that by playing the extra linebacker. It's also dependent on, on how Ohio State views Arvell Reese in this game. Because if he's just going to be on the line of scrimmage the whole time, then, then you probably won another linebacker out there. So it's not, it's not exactly the same Michigan offense of the last few years. Right. Where they're just playing bully ball all the time and playing with big personnel packages and putting like extra offensive linemen out there. I do think if it does get to that, like if like Michigan has been saving extra offensive line packages. I don't think they have been because I don't know that they have the depth to do it. But if they did that, then I think Peyton Pierce plays quite a bit. So I don't know. I, I guess as we get closer to it, my, my lean is maybe that Ohio State's a little more in its, in its base defense which is.
- [54:50]
B
Yeah.
- [54:50]
C
Play the nickel. Yeah.
- [54:51]
B
Because I just again like, I just think like oh, Michigan, you end up playing three linebackers a lot. Like they, it. That's. It's not the norm. Last year it was more. But the three years before that it was not the norm. They were, they had the slot on the field a lot. Definitely right. Third down. Peyton Pierce will be in the game. Arvell Reese will be up on the line of scrimmage, that kind of thing. But like on Will Art, will Peyton Pierce start?
- [55:15]
C
I would say probably not. Not the other. The other complicating thing is, is Max Bredesen's hurt like their tight end fullback, which like he, he put. He's the guy that kind of puts them into a personnel. Right. So if he's not available, they're still going to use that position to do like a backup in that role. But maybe they use it less so that maybe if they're using that less than that cuts in the Peyton Pierce's potential snaps.
- [55:42]
B
I still have to get to the Michigan side of this. It's gonna be a three hour pod. But by the way, just looking up Max Bredesen stats and where he lines up, he still lines up as an inline tight end like most of the time and he's a fullback maybe like 25 of the time. Is Max Bredesen what Ohio State wants Nate Roberts to be?
- [55:58]
C
Yeah, except the Bredeson's actually a fullback.
- [56:01]
B
But he. What he plays a lot of tight end. Are they, are they like leaning into Nate Roberts fullback stuff so that when he is a starting tight end he can play inline tight end 75 of the time and fullback 25 of the time. And they know he can play tight end so they're giving him a bunch of fullback snaps this year to turn him into Max Bredesen.
- [56:23]
C
No, I just don't. Max brightest in 6:2. He's 6:2, 2:50 like he's a fullback who, who will line up on the line of scrimmage like a tight end and then motion into the backfield and then be a fullback. I just don't like. They're not the same type of player. There's no one on this roster, which is why I want them to recruit one who is built like Max Partisan.
- [56:44]
B
Okay. Trying to throw Nate Roberts a bone there. It's like, my God. It's like because.
- [56:49]
C
Because you watch throwing fewer bones. I'm done with the full package.
- [56:52]
B
But you. Because you watched Nate Roberts try to do this stuff for Ohio State and you're like, what is that? And then you watch Max Bredesen do it for Michigan. It's like, that is beautiful. Right?
- [57:01]
C
That's what he was recruited to do, and he's been there forever doing it.
- [57:04]
B
Yeah, well, so give Nate Roberts five years of this stuff and maybe by 2028, I'll be Max.
- [57:10]
C
All right. I'll have some patience.
- [57:14]
B
So. And we haven't, like, stopping the run. Ohio State's defense is seventh in rushing success rate as a defense, which is. Which is quite good. They give up 2.67 carries per carry. Only Texas Tech and Oklahoma are better in the P4. They give up 80 rushing yards a game. Only Texas Tech is better in the P4. So this is also like a very good run defense. Right. Do you feel good about Ohio State's run defense?
- [57:40]
C
Yes, I do. And like, it's faced. It's faced some good bat. Like, I don't. I don't know if it's faced, like, excellent rushing attacks, but it's faced some good running backs. Jonah Coleman, K. Tron Allen. There's one more there that I was thinking. The guy last week, Antoine Raymond at Records. Really good. Yeah, they've kind of shut them all down.
- [58:01]
B
Okay, so to talk more about that side of it, let's get to some Michigan personnel. Just so you guys know, they are starting three red shirt freshmen on the offensive line, which is like if Ian Moore, Gabe, Ben Sickle and one of the Armstrong's twins were starting for Ohio State. Just to like, put this in context, right, they are starting three red shirt freshmen. Blake Frazier, the starting left tackle, started the last five games. Evan Link was the starter there. He got hurt. He's a red shirt freshman. He was the number 209 recruit in his class. Jake Guarnera has started the last nine games. He did not begin the season as a starter. He's the number 506 recruit in his class. He's a redshirt freshman. I think he's really good. Yeah, he's he is physical and is really a big part of their run game. Watch for him at right guard. And then Andrew Sprague is the right tackle. He was a top 100 recruit in the class of 20, 24. He was number 68. But he has given up 17 pressures this year. It's by far the most for Michigan. It's. It's not that bad. There are tackles in the Big Ten that have given up 37 pressures. So 17 is not ridiculous for comparison. For instance, Philip Daniels has given up 13 and there have been a times where be like I don't know Philip Daniels. So like I do think Andrew Sprague, who is the biggest recruit is probably the leakiest part of that. And then Greg Crippen's their center. I think he's good. And Giovanni El Hadi is the left guard and he's pretty decent. Interior of the offensive line is pretty good. When we talk about the run game and with Jordan Marshall, who we'll get to in a second, this is one of the 10 nominees for the Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line. I think the tackles can be got.
- [59:34]
C
I think so too.
- [59:35]
B
In pass, in pass protection. I think running the ball. I think the interior offensive line for Michigan could get some stuff done.
- [59:43]
C
Generally or in this game. Like you think that you like the. Because I, I think Katie McDonald's gonna eat their lunch.
- [59:49]
B
In general, I think they are a good run blocking offensive line and they have done a good job. When you see and we'll get to Jordan Marshall. When you see Jordan Marshall be effective, it is typically center guard. Here's a hole. He hits it. He's tiptoeing and maneuvering through the second level of the defense. But that's how it gets started. Will that get started against Kaden McDonald and Edric Houston and Sunny Styles and Arvell Reese and Peyton Pierce. I think it's a great matchup but I do think they are generally pretty good at it. And maybe the best offensive line and running back combination that Ohio State has faced.
- [60:31]
C
It's either this team or Penn State or Penn State.
- [60:33]
B
Right?
- [60:35]
C
Penn State's O line like has good individual pieces, but it probably has not played as well, nearly as well collectively as Michigan's offensive line is. It's weird. Like Michigan, Michigan is more of like some of its parts than, than Penn State is. But Michigan's offensive line is better.
- [60:50]
B
But you think so you think Kid McDonald's a tremendous player, has a chance to be a first team all American. As a finalist for the Outland. Right.
- [60:59]
C
Yeah.
- [61:00]
B
You. You said. Just said the phrase eat, eat, eat a lunch, Eat someone's lunch, eat their lunch.
- [61:05]
C
Yeah, yeah. I just, I think like the, the. And it's not because I think Michigan's offensive line is bad. I don't. Probably better than last year. I do agree with you. They're. They're more sound on the interior than they are at the tackle position. And part of that is just experience. I think some of those guys like Crippin started against Ohio State last year because of injury. Right. And Alhadi I think is. Is a fifth year guys who's been there a long time. Yeah.
- [61:29]
B
Two veterans and three young guys.
- [61:31]
C
Yeah. So it's not that I think they're bad. I wonder like about their athleticism. I think more than anything and I.
- [61:39]
B
Don'T think they're gigantic or super athletic, but when they work they're just turning guys and yeah. Our technique sound in creating a crease. And then Marshall, Jordan Marshall has good vision.
- [61:50]
C
Yeah. They're incredibly well coached. That's. That's been a constant for Michigan's offensive line. The, the like the talent level has like you know, come, come and gone a little bit I think over the last couple of years. But, but they're always. Well, they're, they're never like technically deficient. They're always very good with that.
- [62:08]
D
The who's down and who Newville were making their list, but some didn't know. Walmart has the best brands for their gifts.
- [62:15]
C
What about toys?
- [62:16]
B
Do they have brands kids have been wanting all year? Yep.
- [62:18]
A
Barbie, Tonys and Lego Gifts that will make them all cheer.
- [62:22]
B
Do you mean they have all the brands I adore?
- [62:24]
A
They have Nintendo, Nespresso, Apple and more.
- [62:28]
B
What about.
- [62:29]
D
So the who answered questions from friends till they were blue. Each one listened and shouted from Walmart. Who knew? Shop gifts from top brands for everyone on your list in the Walmart app.
- [62:39]
A
Welcome to Walgreens. Looking for a holiday gift?
- [62:42]
C
Sort of.
- [62:43]
B
My cousin Freddie showed up to surprise us.
- [62:46]
A
Oh, sounds like a real nice surprise.
- [62:48]
B
Exactly. So now I have to get him a gift, but I haven't gotten my bonus yet. So if we can make it something or really nice but also not break the bank, that'd be perfect.
- [62:56]
A
How about a keurig for 50% off.
- [62:59]
C
Bingo savings all season? The holiday road is long.
- [63:02]
D
We're with you all the way.
- [63:04]
B
Walgreens offer valid November 26th through December 27th. Exclusions apply. Yeah, they're good technically, but then if. If Kaden McDonald is like making you hit yourself? Why are you hitting yourself? Why are you hitting yourself? It's like I'm good at technique and Kid McDonald's like, I don't care. That could be a thing. So.
- [63:24]
C
Right. Because I do like I think, I think I guess I wish I would have went back and watched what Katie McDonald did against Van Gogh at Penn State. But they have seen better individual interior offensive linemen. But the, the group of this group is good. That the center, center, guard is probably the, the toughest matchup they've had so far this year for Ohio State defense.
- [63:49]
B
And then Marshall hit the hole. Justice Haynes was there leading back. He's hurt. He's out for the rest of the regular season at least. He was averaging more than 100 rushing yards per game. Jordan Marshall was like the number two guy in a one two combo. Now he's the number one guy. He's, he's.
- [64:05]
C
Did you watch any of Haynes like when you were or did you not because you didn't think he was going to play?
- [64:11]
B
I watched a little bit here and there. I watched some of the Nebraska stuff. Like I watched the 75 rounder guys yard run against Nebraska.
- [64:17]
C
Okay, so if I tell you that like I kind of like Jordan Marshall a little more, how do you react to that?
- [64:22]
B
I think Haynes is more explosive. Yeah, I think he's no doubt more explosive at the second level. Marshall might get caught. Haynes is going to run away from you. But I think sort of like picking his way through the defense and maybe getting seven when only three was there. I think Marshall might be better at it.
- [64:39]
C
Yeah, that's kind of how I feel too. He's just like very patient and seems to see things quickly and he like runs with like a really good center of gravity and doesn't really ever go down on the first hit. I just like falls forward. Yeah, it falls forward. You're right that like there was a run against Northwestern where, where he got loose and didn't score and I was like, justice probably scores but run, run to run. I think Marshall might be a little more efficient.
- [65:04]
B
Yeah, very good back from Cincinnati had been recruited by Ohio State. Was kind of a big deal that Michigan got him second year guy. Ohio State got James Peoples instead. Right. So like this is what we're talking about here. So people know that Jordan Marshall is good. Both Haynes and Marshall have four runs of more than 50 yards this year. Individually they're tied for third in the country. Michigan 8 Overall, 50 yard runs, best in the country. So they are explosive in the run game. But the way they're explosive mostly is like block here, block there. They're very. When they're on point, they are very good at getting to the second level. And when you watch them at their best, they get to the second level and a linebacker can't get off off the block. Sonny Styles is good at getting off blocks. So these guys have to get off blocks. Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles, Jalen McLean. You can't get blocked by these interior offensive linemen who get to the second level. So that's going to be a huge part of this. Jordan Marshall, 100 yards in each of the last four games. Did not play against Maryland last week. More precautionary with the shoulder injury. He's definitely played this week. 25 carries against Washington, 25 carries against Purdue. I think he carries it 25 times on Saturday.
- [66:07]
C
Yeah, I think so too. I was, I. He was. I think he might have been one of the flag planting culprits last year too. I was watching. Oh, re. Watching the game. I think I might have saw him.
- [66:19]
B
Flag planting.
- [66:20]
C
Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [66:22]
B
Molar kid planting a flag. Okay. I'm sure.
- [66:26]
C
Molar kid who's mad, mad that Ohio State didn't recruit him. By the way, the guy who's responsible for that is now his position coach at Michigan.
- [66:35]
B
Yeah, but they did offer him. Didn't they offer him. But was it like, like. But they weren't as into it as Michigan was. Yeah. So anyway, like, this is like, it's a good, efficient, proficient run game. Right. At its best. It looks like the, the what Michigan always does, which is make initial blocks like Greg Crippen combo block, man. Boom, boom. All of a sudden. I mean, look, when it's. It's one of those things, man. That's why you like offensive line play. When offensive line play works, it's like, why don't teams run for 40 yards on every sing? This is so easy. And also there's a lot of banana angles. So I don't. Jalen McLean and Caleb Downs are not banana angle kind of safeties. So I also think like Michigan at times has they beat Nebraska because they ran three long touchdown runs. I don't think this is a defense that even if it's not Kaden McDonald destroying things, I don't think the back end of this Ohio State defense is going to let Jordan Marshall get out of the house for 50 famous last words.
- [67:32]
C
It just. Yeah. It hasn't happened and it just, it does. It not. It feels to me like something Michigan needs. Yes. Right in order in order to be its best self offensively. And it's just like a heck of a thing to have to rely on. Yes. Again, not to say that it won't happen, but there's just been nothing to suggest that Ohio State is susceptible to.
- [67:53]
B
That because it's just like Jeremiah Love, when Jeremiah Love at Notre Dame is breaking off runs. And I know he did nothing against Ohio State in the national championship game, championship game last year, but when he's at his best, he's dropping double spin moves on people, right? And he's doing extraordinarily in. He's having extraordinary individual efforts. That's not what Jordan Marshall is doing. Jordan Marshall is being patient, having vision, getting a hole, seeing a hole and then making a cut back and then he goes right. But a lot of his 50 yard runs he has like, he has four 50 yard runs. He might have one broken tackle on those 50 yard runs. The rest of it is he's taking what is there and vision really matters. And there was somebody in the chat who's like, man, that's one of the biggest differences between Ohio State Michigan is it feels like Marshall's vision really shows up. Right. And maybe if you feel like Ohio State at times has missed that, I think that it's been pretty good lately. So anyway, watch for Jordan Marshall, watch for Kate McDonald. Tight end, Marlon Klein's their inline. Tight end. Bredesen is the fullback. Tight end, they'll play them both. Both. Bredesen hurt his foot last week. He was on the walking on the sideline. On a walking boot and crutches at the end of the game. Might play, might not. The receivers. Donovan McCully, 32 catches, 58 targets. Andrew March, 42 catches, 53 targets. Samaj Morgan in the doghouse, 19 catches, 35 targets. Channing Goodwin, 11 catches, 22 targets. Andrew Marsh's first four games, one catch on two targets for 30 yards. Andrew Marsh, his last seven games, six hundred and eleven receiving yards in the last seven games. 41 catches, last seven games average six catches for 90 yards a game. Power four receivers since week six, he's ninth in overall rating. Jeremiah Smith has won. CARNELL Tate is two and he's fourth in overall receiving yards in the Power 4 since week six. And he has no drops. And you look at Ronnie Bell, Roman Wilson, Nico Collins, guys like that, I think he's playing like Michigan's best receiver in a decade. So, like, this is what we're talking about. He was the number two, the number 82 overall recruit, the number 13 receiver recruit in this class. For instance, Quincy Porter at Ohio State was the fourth ranked receiver recruit. DeCorian Moore at Oregon was number one. He's third among true freshmen in receiving yards behind Malachi Tony from Miami and Braylon Stacy from Tennessee. Last year through 11 games. Jeremiah Smith, 52 catches, 895 yards entering the Michigan game. Andrew Marsh, 42 catches, 641 yards. But he basically didn't play for the first month. So like impact since he started playing impact statistically and what he means to the offense. It's very similar to Jeremiah Smith for Ohio State last year as a true freshman. Now he's 6 foot 190. He is not nearly the physically imposing kind of player that Jeremiah Smith is. But the way they use him, you will see Bryce Underwood throw him the ball three straight times. He's their deep threat, he's their short threat, he's their everything threat. McCully is the big physical guy, but they lean on Marsh a ton and he's very, very good.
- [71:01]
C
He is very good. Yeah. I think that you mentioned some other good Michigan receivers in the past. The difference with Marsh is like they actually use them right. Like they do. Yes, they build, they build the offense kind of around him. They. They move him around in a lot of different ways. He'll be in the slot, he'll be outside. Put him in the backfield and run routes out of there. You hit a run a really nice wheel route out of the backfield against Northwestern, you.
- [71:22]
B
You get your best receiver in a wheel route concept where he immediately has leverage in an angle on the corner. And it was like, like they're gonna run that.
- [71:31]
C
Yeah, they're gonna run that. Some of the stuff that Ohio State, I think was like planning and hoping to do with Jackson, Smith and Jigba in 2022 that it just like it never got to because Jackson got hurt. Again, like not necessarily comparing him to these Ohio State guys, but just like, like the way he's used in the offense, like can be similar. He is explosive and he's dangerous. He did get. I guess it was a Northwestern game and he was fighting against Maryland. He takes some hard hits. He's like not the biggest guy in the world. I do like, I wonder about.
- [71:59]
B
It might have been Maryland. He got crushed on a play.
- [72:03]
C
Yeah, yeah.
- [72:04]
B
It had to come out for a little bit. Crushed and then.
- [72:08]
C
Yeah, and he's tough. He's. He's definitely a tough player, but. And I guess that's more of a plus than it is a negative Right. He's. He's not going to be afraid to go over the middle and make contested catches kind of stuff. So it'll be. I'm interested to see how Ohio State plays it. Right.
- [72:22]
B
We've.
- [72:23]
C
We've seen them play. Denzel. Boston did a good job there. You know, I think. I think Illinois has some good receivers, and Ohio State did have. Did a. Did a nice job there.
- [72:32]
B
Yeah.
- [72:34]
C
But I don't know, like, they're not going to follow them. I wonder if they might, like, try to double them a little bit if they feel like they can get away with that because there's just not a whole. Like, Macaulay is good, but it's not quite the same threat level. And beyond that, it's like, really not much of a passing threat at all. So will Andrew Marsh get at all, like, the kind of treatment that Michigan's given, like, Marvin Harrison Jr. And Jeremiah the last couple of years?
- [73:01]
B
Marlon Klein is probably their third best passing threat as a tight end. He has 19 catches for 209. But it really is Marsh McCauley and it really is Martian. Again, it's just to say that even when Michigan was good, you could go into the Michigan game and there wasn't even, like, Roman Wilson and Ronnie Bell. It's like, were you scared of Roman Wilson and Ronnie Bell? It's like they're functional within the offense, but it's not where they start offensively. This is kind of where they start offensively right now. As good as Marshall is, I think Marsh is actually like the, the guy that creates the other stuff because they will go deep, they will throw short. He's good after the catch. He'll. He'll. He caught a, you know, he caught a fade for a touchdown. He caught a huge deep ball last week that really mattered. Like, they, they just are going to go to him a lot. And it's just the story of Michigan receiving the last, like the, the. The evolution of Ohio State, Michigan football. One of the primary things has been, like, the gap in the passing game, especially when it comes to receiver play. And finally there's a guy from Michigan who looks like he could play for Ohio State. So we're not saying he's better.
- [74:07]
C
That's probably the best way to say it. Yeah, that's probably the best way to say it. It's like he's. We're not saying he's better than anybody, like, whatever, but, like, talent wise, he could absolutely play at Ohio State if he.
- [74:17]
B
He's the number 82 recruit in the country. From Texas certainly could be at Ohio State. If he was at Ohio State and healthy, he would have been Ohio State's leading receiver last week. No doubt about it. And it might have made you say, oh, they're actually okay without Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, instead of it feeling like the offense is on fire because they have two receiver injuries. So, like, that's all it's like, oh, could Michigan's best receiver be Ohio State's third best receiver? Wow, what a compliment. But also, that's kind of the point. He could play here. So he's really good. Don't underestimate him. He's not Jeremiah Smith. Nobody is. And then, so Bryce Underwood again, just kind of hot and cold. Not ton of design runs. 241 scramble yards this year. 143 design runs. The last four games, he's had three, five, six designed runs for like 50 yards. And then, you know, he's had, last four games, 14 scramble yards, 38 scramble yards, 23, 25. So like, again, I just think, like, he'll drop on a, you know, third and six. He'll get eight yards up the middle at times. As you said, maybe don't blitz him too much on third down. But high, high ceiling still is making mistakes, I think, is the main evaluation of Bryce Underwood. And so that's a wild card. So if he's, if he's at the ceiling a lot and Ohio State doesn't take advantage of mistakes, then Ohio State might be in trouble. If they can make him make four freshman mistakes in this game and live with a couple of the great plays he makes, they'll be. Be sitting pretty. But Ohio State's gonna see a lot of Bryce Underwood over the next couple years. And I am, I am very curious from the nerves, emotion, mental standpoint of all this, it's a Michigan kid who almost went to LSU and then decided to stay at Michigan. Like, I'm, I'm curious to see how Bryce Underwood plays in the game.
- [76:08]
C
Yeah, me too. And it's not like whatever he played against Oklahoma. I thought he looked really overwhelmed, but he's been, he's been better since then. And he's a guy who, like, plays with a lot of emotion, I feel like. So I wonder. That can be a great thing, but in a game like this, we know it can be, it can be a bad thing too. So, yeah, I'll be interested to see what kind of balance he strikes. There you are. You like me anticipating we see more designed run from him in this game.
- [76:35]
B
I Can't tell. I cannot tell. Like, have they been saving it? But I feel like on. On one level, I've kind of been waiting all year for them to run Bryce Underwood. And like, the only game where he really ran was Central Michigan. So this isn't a Mac game. Right. And that was a Biff Poggy game. So, like, this is not a Mac defense. And then like, they didn't, you know, they definitely. The first two games, they definitely tamped him down. And then Sharon Moore was suspended for two games. Biff Poggy was the interim head coach. And then he ran more in those two games. But then, like, they didn't then sort of continue that. He is not. They are not running. Like, he had a zone read keep against Maryland in the middle of the third quarter that I was like, oh. Because, like, it was the first time that he kept the ball on a design run the whole game. So I just. If it is it, then it's something that they have been saving. Either it's because they're saving it for Ohio State and they just didn't want him to take hits all year. But now it's go time.
- [77:27]
C
Yeah, but that's kind of how I.
- [77:28]
B
Feel, but I'm not necessarily anticipating it. I just feel like maybe it's not a primary part of their offense and if they're going to run the ball, they're going to hand it to Jordan Marshall and like, they'd run a lot of RPO stuff. So, you know, like, maybe there's going to be options on there. I'm gonna. If I don't hand it to Marshall, then it's not there on the throw. Now I have. I'll. I'll keep it, but I am not anticipating it. But the idea that they've been saving it for Saturday maybe could be true.
- [77:56]
C
Yeah, they had a play. I'm looking at my notes. I must have been. It was a Northwestern game where they ran like a slide RPO with a tight end. So that's like when the tight end comes back, back across. Like linking is on a block and he just goes into the flat and then you pull it and throw it to him in the flat. Ohio State did that a couple times last week with Max Claire, but there was also a rollout with it. So then it sort of turned into like a run, run, pass option. So because you can hand it off or Underwood can keep it himself in a run. And he did on that play and he ran for, I think a first down because the linebacker, like, ran with the tight End. So it was just like huge gap that opened there. And that's like, like, for all intents and purposes, that's like defending the triple option kind of. And Ohio State just like, not seen really any of that this year. And it was just like one play that stuck out to me.
- [78:45]
B
But.
- [78:45]
C
But I, I thought to myself, like, I wonder if Michigan might try any more of that. Like, get Underwood on the perimeter with an option to hand it off, an option to throw it, or an option to keep it and run it himself. And like, what does that look like? How does Ohio State defend that?
- [78:58]
B
Okay, strategically, you think blitzims a decent amount on first and second downs, don't blitz them on third down and spy him.
- [79:07]
C
Yeah.
- [79:09]
B
And then, I mean, everybody watching this, you watch the Ohio State Washington game, they spied the heck out of Devon Williams Jr. And he played his worst game of the year. And there's no better spies in the country than Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles. And so, like, this is, this is real opportunity here because. Because again, with anything, the couple times that you've seen it, you light him up on third down and then he just scrambles up the middle and it's like, well, you don't want that to happen. So cage him, spy him, make him throw it. But when he's at his best, he's in rhythm, so they'll roll the pocket with him sometimes, but he can really get in. You can feel him get going. He'll. You can. He's. He'll have a drive where it's just like he's feeling it and it's just like, bang. Rpo, bang. Little rollout, bang. Something to tight end. Bang, Shot down the sideline, rpo. Right. Like it is. When it's good, it's good. But he makes mistakes every game he does because he's a true freshman and he hasn't completely shaken it. All right. I went super long on that, but I just like, I wanted. Sometimes, sometimes I do this, at least with the big game breakdown. Sometimes, sometimes I just talk about the opposition the whole time because I'm like, ah, Ohio State. You guys know them, they're good. And it's like, it's an Ohio State show. Did we talk about Ohio State? So I wanted to make sure that I talked about. About how good this Ohio State defense was, and I wanted to make sure that everybody knew that I stayed up until three o' clock in the morning watching Arvell Reese play four straight football games because they wanted to know exactly what he was. And Wasn't doing.
- [80:35]
C
Okay. That was good. It was good. I don't, I, I think I like, I just like approach it a little differently. I just have like some like, I more like ideas that I want to talk about. But yeah, yes, a couple of things just sort of like statistically before we do that, I looked at FEI over the last five years like you did. So like when this winning streak for Michigan started up, up through this year, this is going to be the first time where neither Ohio State's offense nor Michigan's defense are top 10 in FEI over this because well, High State's offense is 11th, so it's just on the outside. Michigan's defense is 29th by year since 2021. Michigan's defense and FEI 12th, 7th, 1st, 6th, 29th. So it's not a bad defense, but it's a somewhat significantly worse Michigan defense than Ohio State has seen over the last couple years by that particular profile. Yards per play, it's kind of the same deal again. This is the first time since 2021 that both of these teams offense defense are outside of the top 10 in yards per play. Ohio State's offense is 12th. Michigan's defense is 15th. Michigan was also 15th last year, but Ohio State's offense was third. So Michigan's defense yards per play since 21, 14th in the country. 7th, 4th, 15th, 15th. So again, quite good, but like a notch below where it was when it really felt like Michigan's defense was like kind of the dominating force in, in this rivalry for a couple couple of years. SP plus Ohio State's offense is number six. Michigan's defense is top 10. It's number 10. That's a little more like opponent adjusted play to play stuff than FEI is more like drive bases. We've discussed some of the situational stuff. Ohio State on third down offense, number two in the country, 55.8%. Michigan defense number 44 in the country, 35.8. Although like teams are really compacted. So like I don't to want month 44 like sounds bad. It's actually like not that bad. Red zone touchdown percentage. Ohio State like getting better up to 23rd in the country, 71.2%. They want to be north of 70 or 75, but like they're kind of where they want to be. Michigan's defense number 26, 52.9%. So like all those things like favor Ohio State's offense, which I don't, I don't think we're surprised by but, but I, I. Michigan's defense is Sort of an interesting watch I think because there are guys that really jump out at you but I don't know, sort of like across the board. When we did this like mid season sort of check in, we talked about like dude quotient, just not quite as high I think for Michigan this time around, especially on defense. Like solid. Yes. Overwhelming in spots. I'm not entirely sure. But there are matchups to get into that I think. You know, depending on how well guys show up for Ohio State, especially up front. Primarily up front and maybe exclusively up front. Could. Could be matchups that, that swing the games.
- [83:49]
D
The who's down and who Newville were making their list but some didn't know. Walmart has the best brands for their gifts.
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B
What about toys? Do they. They have brands kids have been wanting all year. Yep.
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Barbie, Tonys and Lego gifts that will make them all cheer.
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B
Do you mean they have all the brands I adore.
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A
They have Nintendo, Nespresso, Apple and more.
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B
What about.
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D
So the who answered questions from friends till they were blue? Each one listened and shouted from Walmart. Who knew? Shop gifts from top brands for everyone on your list in the Walmart app.
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Welcome to Walgreens. Looking for a holiday gift?
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C
Sort of.
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My cousin Freddie showed up to surprise us.
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A
Oh, sounds like a real nice surprise.
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B
Exactly. So now I have to get him a gift, but I haven't gotten my bonus yet. So if we could make it something really nice but also not break the bank, that'd be perfect.
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A
How about a keurig for 50% off.
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Bingo savings all season? The holiday road is long.
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Walgreens offer valid November 26 through December 27 exclusions apply. Why.
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C
The, the first like sort of like idea I want to like get into because I was going back watching games and there was one, there was one play from the Maryland game and I was like, well, that's it. If that, if that happens, if that happens against Ohio State, it's going to be a problem. They on passing downs, Michigan will go to this five man front. Well like a, like a rush front. Like Ohio State plays in the five minute front a lot on defense. Right. With the free interior lineman and then you put an end and you'll have Arvell Reese up there. Michigan kind of does that in two instances and we'll talk about the other one in a second. But the, the one where they do it is on passing downs and, and they seem to want to do that to get Derek Moore their best pass rusher defensive end in More of an interior position run rushing against guards. But on this play, on this play against Maryland, that really jumped out to me. They got into that five man front. They had Derek Moore lined up over, over the right guard, but then they put Jayshon Barham on the same side. He was over the tackle. And, and that, that is Ryan. Ryan Day called Jayshawn Barham and Derek Moore two of the better pass rushers in the country this week. I don't know that I would agree with that necessarily about Barham but, but, but More has the production I think to back it out. 34 pressures, nine and a half sacks. But the two of those guys on the same side rushing against the right side of Maryland's offensive line ended with them basically like racing to the quarterback to see which one. See which one could hit first. See which one could hit him first. And then the quarterback got the ball away. It was an incomplete pass and not a sack. But we all know that Ohio State has had its struggles on the right side of the offensive lineup, primarily at right guard. And I like if there was, if there was a thing I could bet like the most money on in this game, I would be the first time Ohio State gets into third and whatever and clearly has to throw the ball. Barham, number one and Derek Moore, who's number eight I believe are going to be lined up together over the right side of Ohio State's offensive line. And I have no idea how that's going to go for Ohio State because that, that side has just been widely inconsistent.
- [86:59]
B
Yeah. Okay. Moore is really good too. Right. Like he. I'm looking at pass rush among the best pass rush.
- [87:07]
C
Yeah.
- [87:08]
B
Pass rush win rate receipts in the Big Ten not quite at like the Aiden Hutchinson, Mason Graham first round pick level of defensive line game records but like a very accomplished guy who can get after the quarterback and they will. And especially if they deployed in a way to try to free him up to do that.
- [87:27]
C
Yeah, he's yeah very.
- [87:28]
B
He's.
- [87:29]
C
He's an excellent pass rusher. I think you can make the argument he's probably the best that all I say is play this year. They like they face Colin Simmons of Texas. They actually fixed a pretty good one against Minnesota.
- [87:41]
B
Deny Dennis Sutton very good.
- [87:43]
C
Like I think they're similar. Maybe similar caliber, slightly better. If you've like were to ask draft people with more. More treaty maybe than Derek Moore is but more, more you know with a, with a rip move that's pretty effective. I thought he was really good in the couple games that I Watched of, of like rushing to get a tackle off balance and then just kind of like running right through his chest and just like driving him back into the quarterback. He's pretty strong and pretty powerful when he wants. Wants to bull rush you. So. And it's interesting. I don't know, it seems like he is primarily over the right tackle from, from almost everything I've seen. Certainly could move him around some. You know, for Phil Daniels, the right tackle for Ohio State, I, I probably like a little more a matchup that's more about power than it is about, like, speed and finesse. So. So maybe there's something about just Derek Moore's style that might lend itself to Phil Daniels playing a little more, but I just don't know that are playing a little. A little better. Excuse me, but I, I don't know, like, on the season, there's just not been a lot of cohesiveness with Ohio State on that right side of the line when it comes to pass protection and sort of like passing stuff off to each other and identifying things. And the idea of just like, of putting more out there over the guard, Tiger Shabola and then. And then Barham, who is a little more speed and a little more finesse on the outside over Daniels. It's just a. It's a matchup that I would have to favor for Michigan until I kind of see it play out, because I just really can't trust what I've seen from the right side there. But I. I guess the one thing I would say sort of like in opposition to that, to argue with myself, would be this past game against Rutgers. Rutgers was like, you know, throwing some junk at them up front and doing some twists and loops and a lot of stuff. And it was like the first time maybe all year where that was happening. And I was like, watching stuff and thought to myself, well, that was a good play by Tegra. That was a good play by Integra. Like, he had his eyes up. He was aware of what was happening. And the same thing was true of Phil Daniels. Like, one or two might have sprung through, but workers was doing it a lot, and it wasn't like routinely getting through. So that could just be, you know, Ohio State being more athletic than Rutgers and being able to pick it up a little easier. But it also could be just like, you know, repetition and being attacked with those kind of things week over week, like, finally starting to figure some of it out. So. So I'm. I'm fascinated to see how that plays out because I, I don't think it's going to be a lot of blitzing from Michigan. Michigan didn't blitz Ohio State a ton last year. Mike Martindale loves to blitz, but he did not blitz Ohio State a ton last year. And I kind of think he won't do it in this game because I'm sure he's going to trust his off his defensive line to do enough of like those kind of games up front to, to generate those pressures and confuse Ohio State's offensive line. So the extent to which the, like, they all can handle it, but I think primarily that right side is going to go a long way in determining just sort of like how comfortable Julian Saying is and how much the passing offense can be efficient.
- [90:49]
B
All right, so if you want to look smart, you're sitting around with your aunt and your uncle on Saturday and Ohio State has the ball. Derek Moore is number eight. Jayshawn Barm is number one. If one and eight. If you see an 81 or an 18 over the right side of Ohio State's offensive line, elbow your uncle, elbow your aunt and say Landis said, watch out for this.
- [91:14]
C
Yeah.
- [91:14]
B
And see what happens.
- [91:15]
C
We'll see. They don't. Yeah, they don't. It wasn't. They did that every single time they got into a passing situation, but they did it a couple of times and. But they. The thing that is consistent in this passing situation is they're putting more on the interior. They're letting him rush a guard and they're. And they're doing it with five players and sometimes they'll bring a linebacker for a six to like, make sure everybody's got a one on one. And if you're a guard, blocking Derek Moore is pretty tough. Same thing with Arville Reese. If you're a guard, blocking Arvell Reese is pretty tough. So Wink Martino smart. He creates advantages for his players. The best thing that Ohio State can do to avoid that is stay on schedule and not put itself in third.
- [91:52]
B
Yeah.
- [91:53]
C
Because if they're not in third and long, then they won't have to deal with that.
- [91:55]
B
Well, like one of the plays that, like one of that everybody remembers from this year is when Penn State put Chaz Coleman over Carson Hinsman. You put a defensive end over a center and it's. What are you gonna do? It's like, it's those situations, but you can get a one on one with a mismatch like that on a passing down. That's a do or die play play.
- [92:10]
C
Yeah. Yeah. So. So Michigan will, will hunt those for sure. I'll stick with, with Barham for a second because I, I actually was. So Jason Barham last year was an off ball linebacker. I think maybe Ohio State fans probably know this, but last year was an off ball linebacker. After he transferred from Maryland. This year in the off season they said we're going to make him more of like a hybrid guy. He's going to play some, some box linebacker, some defensive line. The first two games he played played 39 snaps in the box. Since then he's played 11. So he's, he's just been a defensive end basically since really. Yeah, since the third game of the season. You'll see some snaps from time to time where he's like standing up in the middle of the line. But still, still being a defensive lineman, they will drop him out in the space. Like actually I was surprised by how much they would. They'll drop him out because he is comfortable playing in space. I don't, I don't think he's got it all quite yet. As an edge rusher, he's like kind of learning it on the fly and, and, and like going back and paying closer attention to him. I did expect him to pop a little more as a pass rusher than he did.
- [93:16]
B
Interesting.
- [93:17]
C
He's super quick but like he's only 243 pounds and he's like trying to rush 310 pound offensive tackles. Like sometimes he just gets stalemated. And then in the run game too, it's like when it's one of those things, right? Like you run at good pass rushers when, when you run at him. Teams seem to have a little more success when you run away from him. He is a menace. Chasing down place from the backside like and, and that, that's been a little bit of a problem for Ohio State this year. I like the, was it the UCLA game? I think it was. They were having problems early with that and did a nice job adjusting to it. But it's funny like Ohio State actually has not given up a lot of tackles for loss. They have a lot of runs that go for no yards, but they've not given up a lot of tackles for loss. But, but Barum against the run, when you're running away from him especially is a guy that can kind of put you behind the sticks a little bit because he's so fast like redirecting down the line because he's a linebacker playing defensive end. So he's a, I don't, I'm not trying to make it sound like he's Not a good player. He is a really good player. I just don't know that he's got it all quite yet. As a pass rusher more, I think is a significantly better pass rusher than Barham is right now. But Barum is a very good player and a balanced player. Okay, I guess I'll talk a little more about the defensive line before I move on to the other thing. One of the other things I want to mention. Deep again on, on the defensive line, they play a lot of guys. They play like nine guys which is a lot forward edge, like pretty regularly and then, and then five a tackle pretty regularly. There's a little bit of a discrepancy in the snaps between guys who play like 300 and guys who play more in the 200s. But you'll, you'll see nine guys playing on the defensive line for, for Michigan in this game. Moore plays the most. Rayshawn Benny, defensive tackle, plays the second most. Barron plays the third most. And then there are two other guys who play over 300 snaps, including Trey Pierce at defensive tackle who's like they're starting defensive, other starting defensive tackle. And then TJ Guy plays a lot at edge. Damon Payne, transfer from Alabama, plays a lot of defensive tackle. Trey Williams, transfer from Clemson, plays a lot of defensive tackle. And then you know, ETA is another defensive tackle who plays a decent amount, but he seems to play more like in passing situations than he does in running situations. Kind of more like of a package player at times it seems like. But they'll roll guys through. They'll, they'll stay fresh. It's not like last year it was the Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant show. Like their line's not built that way, but there's, there's real star power I think with more. And you, you see it sometimes with Rayshawn Benny too. Like Rayshawn Benny is a fifth year guy. He's been there a long time. That's the other thing about that. This defensive line, it's old. Their average, their average experience is over four years. It's like, oh, that's interesting. Years.
- [96:18]
B
Offensive line is young, defensive line is old.
- [96:21]
C
Yeah, because there's a couple, there's a couple fifth year guys and then Trey Williams from Clemson is actually a sixth year guy. So they are quite old. I don't know. Like I, I, I'll be honest. Like, like, you know, watching their defensive line, the, the only guys that like really seem to bull like pop and make wow plays are more Barum and Rayshawn Benny at defensive tackle. The rest I would just kind of put in the category of, like, these are solid players.
- [96:45]
B
Okay.
- [96:46]
C
Like, not. They're not the kind of guys, so you can like, whatever, circle and say, like, well, that guy's not very good. He's just playing because he has to. I'm gonna run at him. Like, they all. They all do something a little. Well, and they're all pretty solid for the most part against the run. But like three real difference makers that I'm not sure come close to the level of difference maker that Michigan has had with Graham and Grant and Hutchinson and Ojabo over the. Over the last. Okay, I think that's an important distinction to make. But they will roll guys through and they will be fresh.
- [97:17]
B
It's just, again, just as a reminder for people, when you just think about the Michigan defense in general, and there's also stats that like, basically the home field advantage is negligible since Woody, like, when they're both actually good. But when you think about, okay, this is the third time Ohio State's going to Ann Arbor in this stretch here. 21, 23, 25. So 21. I just rewatched the whole 21 game and there are just. You go through like the draft picks off that Michigan defense. I think they were ranked 12th in FEI overall. But like, Hutchinson is such a game wrecker and they just have other guys. They had a second round corner, D.J. turner playing in that game. Right. Like, there's just. It's real talent all over the field on defense.
- [98:02]
C
Yeah.
- [98:03]
B
Well, Sandra still was still an offensive player in 21.
- [98:07]
C
Oh.
- [98:07]
B
Oh.
- [98:08]
C
But after that was a very good deal.
- [98:11]
B
After that was unbelievable. He's on 23. Right. So in 23 and then in 23. So 21, they have like some great individual guys led by the second pick in the draft. 23. Statistically, they're the best defense in the country and they're just incredibly sound and sane. Restill and linebackers and like depth on the defensive line and all that stuff. And so it might be cold, it might be snowing. Here goes. Ohio State's going to Ann Arbor. But just like, just realistically, Bill, this Michigan defense is a significant cut below the 21 and 23 Michigan defenses. Just because as you remind yourself and go back, how could Ohio State be in a four game losing streak? There have been some great Michigan defenses, And I think 21 and 23 in Ann Arbor in the big house, we got this defense come get us. Was a real thing. And I. It's just not where this Michigan defense Is right. It's just not.
- [99:02]
C
No, not quite, but. And even like last year, like. Like FEI last year, there were top 10 still in defense. Yeah. And 15th in yards per player.
- [99:10]
B
Right.
- [99:10]
C
Like, yeah, it's just a. It's a degree or two or three. Like, slightly worse than that. It's not a bad defense. But the other thing, too is like, you can do the thing right? Was like, well, you can do it. People do it with. I've been doing with Ohio State's defense all year. It's like, yeah, they're great. Who have they played played, which is like, okay, fair, I guess, but like, they smother everybody. It's not like the one moderately good offense they played kind of did some stuff and the rest of them didn't. Like, no one has done anything against Ohio State's defense. Michigan has not played a lot of good offenses, but it played one and that offense put it on them. So, like, that was USC when they played USC on the road. USC was moving the ball, like, at will against Michigan and probably should have scored more than the 31 points. Points that have scored in that game. So that. That's like the. The one thing that's kind of in the back of my mind with this Michigan defense is like, it's. I'm not saying it's bad. I think it's quite good. I don't think it's the best Ohio State of scene, but I think it's good. But the one time they played a team that, like, wants to spread you out and has athletes and has good receivers, like, they couldn't do anything to stop it.
- [100:11]
B
And we've talked about that USC offense all year. Efficient. It's at the top of efficiency metrics along with Ohio State. It's not efficient with the quarterback who can operate the system and receivers who can make plays. That USC offense is a pretty good comparison for this Ohio State offense, right?
- [100:28]
C
Yeah, I think USC maybe has been, especially when it's at home, like, more explosive at times in Ohio State is.
- [100:36]
B
And.
- [100:36]
C
And most notably in the run game. There were some big hits for big runs in that game for usc, but, yeah, they, like, they couldn't cover Makai Lemon. Like, it was. It was. Was. It was a problem for. For Michigan in that game and. But that kind of brings me to my next. The next thing I wanted to bring up because the. This has felt consistent in everything I've watched in Michigan's defense when the opponent puts a second tight end on the field. Wink Martindale has responded by going to a 3, 4 defense that puts, like, three true defensive tackles on the field and then. And then uses, like, the edges as outside linebackers and it has two more linebackers. But then there's. So there's only, like, really, like, four secondary players on the field when he does that. And then USC, like, play 12 personnel and then spread Michigan out, and Michigan, like, couldn't. Couldn't contend with it. They were just, they were outmatched personnel wise. And that's part of the reason why I think, like, tight ends have had some success against Michigan this year. But the idea of, like, Ohio State playing 12 personnel with Max Claire, who's basically a receiver, if Michigan's response to that is let's put more big bodies on the field, that feels like it could be a huge advantage for Ohio State in this game. Like, to the point where, like, I, I wonder if, if Martindale will actually respond that way to Ohio State, but, like, Ohio State needs to open this game in 12 personnel to see if he does. Because if he, if he does. If he does, then I sort of, like, I think it could be on for Ohio State to, like, start picking that defense apart just because, like, it's, it's a. It's kind of a dumb thing to do. To do. I think personnel wise, I get it. Like, big bodies equals run the ball. But that's only if the offense chooses to do that. And like, USC didn't do that. Ohio State does do that. Like, they get big and they do run the ball. But if they've been saving some passing packages out of their 12 personnel, I think they could be pretty effective in this game.
- [102:37]
B
What did you make of. But you asked Ryan Day about Will Kazmarick, right?
- [102:41]
C
Yes. Yeah, so that's part of the reason I asked about that. For this reason. Yeah.
- [102:46]
B
Okay. So what did you make of. So Will Cashmere played seven snaps last week, and it did not play a ton the week before either. Right.
- [102:52]
C
He played 12 against UCLA.
- [102:54]
B
Okay. But Ryan Day kind of made it seem like, yeah, everything's okay. What did you make of his answer to your question?
- [103:00]
C
Yeah, he sort of made it sound like he's okay. And we wanted to play. We wanted to, like, continue to develop depth at tight end. Like, I don't. I don't know what to make of that. Like, I didn't think, well, well cast America was on the sideline with, like, his helmet popped up off his head against Rutgers and only played seven snaps when he, when he played. And he only. I think he only was in there for like, to run block and bigger personnel packages. But I don't think, like, you throw a guy out there to go like, bang your head against a defense as a run blocker if you're hurt. Right. I like. Yeah. I think maybe they were kind of just like holding him out a little bit and letting some other guys play. I don't know. Like, I'm a. I'm expecting him to play, I think, and like, play his normal allotment of snaps and do the stuff that he's done all year. But it was kind of weird to see him only playing 19 snaps the last two years.
- [103:44]
B
Do you think Bennett. So Bennett Christian played a lot. Benet Christian started. Does Bennett Christian approximate a decent chunk of Will Kazmaric if he needs to or if they choose to?
- [103:54]
C
I think he. He can at times. Yes. I just think, like, Bennett Christian's blocking is. Is far more inconsistent than cas Maric Cast America is by a significant margin their most reliable blocking tight end. Okay. Yeah. So I like.
- [104:12]
B
Okay.
- [104:13]
C
I, I think they like that. My mother. My, my theory On Ohio State's 12 personnel can still apply if Will Cast America is limited because you can play Bennett Christian there. There. They use Nate Roberts more last week. It's a freshman. I don't know if we'll put him that spot necessarily. Jelani Thurman actually think has played well when they put him in there, so. So you can do it with him, too. We'll see it becomes slightly less effective without Will Cast Merrick, but.
- [104:33]
B
Okay.
- [104:34]
C
I think they can. They could like, approximate a version of it if they have to roll with Bennett Christian there. But I just like, it was, you know, the, the USC game was one thing, but then like, you're watching the, the Northwestern game and like their tight ends getting loose down the seam a little bit. And I, I do think like Michigan and like most linebackers, I suppose, struggle in coverage, like Michigan's linebackers and safeties can, like, can be gotten coverage. Okay. They're really good against the run. Like all to a man, they're good against the run. And Brandon Hillman, one of their safeties, like, can really hit, but they don't cover great. And like the middle. The middle of the field feels like sort of available, whether that's the tight ends or receivers. But as much as we're like having this conversation about Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tatum, will they play? Won't they play? What's that look like if they do? I, I really do think this could be like a mega Max. Claire game. And it also wouldn't be surprised, surprising if other tight ends were to get in on the party because of just that. That just seems like the spot where Michigan's defense is kind of most vulnerable is, like, throwing to guys like that over the middle of the field.
- [105:41]
B
Okay. And with.
- [105:43]
C
With that, by the way, is Ernest Houseman. Michigan's. Michigan's best linebacker did not play last week. He's like, day to day. And just like, I was trying to, like, listen to people who cover Michigan and talk about Michigan. They don't seem to think he's going to play. So that's a. That's a big loss. He's. He's crazy athletic. He's a really good pass rusher. He's excellent against the run. I think he can cover in space a little bit more. More so than the other linebackers that Michigan plays. So. So I just think it becomes that much more of a vulnerability if he's not out there.
- [106:17]
D
The who's down and who Newville were making their list, but some didn't know. Walmart has the best brands for their gifts.
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B
What about toys? Do they have brands kids have been wanting all year? Yep.
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Barbie, Tonys, and Lego. Gifts that will make them all cheer.
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B
Do you mean they have all the brands I adore?
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A
They have Nintendo, Nespresso, Apple, and more.
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B
What about.
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D
So the who answered questions from friends till they were blue. Each one listened and shouted From Walmart. Who knew? Sharp gifts from top brands for everyone on your list in the Walmart app.
- [106:48]
A
Welcome to Walgreens. Looking for a holiday gift?
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C
Sort of.
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B
My cousin Freddy showed up to surprise us.
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A
Oh, sounds like a real nice surprise.
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B
Exactly. So now I have to get him a gift, but I haven't gotten my bonus yet. So we could make it something really nice, but also not break the bank. That'd be perfect.
- [107:05]
A
How about a keurig for 50% off.
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C
Bingo savings all season? The holiday road is long.
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D
We're with you all the way.
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Walgreens offer, valid November 26 through December 27.
- [107:16]
C
Exclusions apply.
- [107:20]
B
It's like Housman's kind of like their sunny styles and Barum's kind of like their Arbel Reese.
- [107:25]
C
Like, that's probably a good shorthand. Probably good shorthand. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. And like, I'm not trying to sound like a. Like a whatever stinking homer. If Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tay play, I don't think Michigan can cover them. Like, I don't. I don't. I don't think Michigan.
- [107:42]
B
Yeah.
- [107:42]
C
Very good.
- [107:44]
B
Okay.
- [107:44]
C
Like I did.
- [107:45]
B
Like, who's their best corner? Do they have a dude at corner? Not really, no.
- [107:50]
C
It's like, it's. It depends on which game you watch something. You can watch a game of Zeke Berry and think it's him. You can watch a game of Jair Hill and think it's him. TJ Metcalf is a transfer who plays in the slot. Mason Curtis and Brandon Hillman play the most at safety. They're again, they're kind of more like, like downhill run stoppers than they are coverage guys. Rod Moore, excellent safety who is a good cover guy, just can't get healthy, unfortunately. And he's not gonna play. He's an all American safety and he's. He hasn't played much this year and he's not going to play in this game. Like that would be, that would be a difference maker. I'd feel slightly different about Michigan's ability to cover Ohio State if he were available, but he's not. It's just hard for me to watch, like Northwestern guys get behind Michigan and, and Maryland's receivers were open all game. They just kept dropping the ball. Malik Washington kept missing them and like, not think that Ohio State's gonna have opportunities to throw. Michigan will defend Ohio State differently. They'll. They'll. Especially if it's only Jeremiah who plays like Jeremiah is going to be double covered the entire game. But if both those guys play Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, you can't double both of them all game. I don't think. Yeah, I think if they both play, you'll see a lot of Ohio State, like putting them on the same side of the formation, which is something they've done a little of but not a ton of. But when they've done it, it's been pretty effective. I just don't, I just don't think it's a good matchup. I don't.
- [109:15]
B
I don't.
- [109:15]
C
And Michigan does not play man coverage because they're not good at it. They're heavy, heavy zones coverage team. And I just think that. I think Ohio State's gonna have opportunities to throw at a decent amount even with the weather, because I'm not expecting wind, like whatever you can throw into the snow. CJ Stroud through for 400 yards in the snow. Yeah. So I don't think that's going to be a factor. The only way it becomes a, like the. Honestly, the way it becomes a factor is if, like, Julian Saying's under duress the whole time, but, but if he's not and we don't know how good he is at avoiding pressure and like making himself space to get throws off. I, I guess I'll say this way, like, Ohio State should be able to throw the ball well in this game. I, I don't want to speak about it like it's a guarantee because it felt that way last year too and then they just didn't do it. But even, even if Jeremiah Smith and Cardinal Tate aren't 100 and I don't, I wouldn't expect them to be if they play. I still, I, I don't think Michigan cover them.
- [110:09]
B
Worst case scenario for Ohio State, both receivers are out. Can Ohio State throw if both receivers are out? Having watched what they did and, and didn't do against Rutgers, how does, what's your view on that?
- [110:21]
C
Yeah, I wouldn't, I would need to know like, what's Quincy Porter's availability because, and maybe we just believe in him because he's like the unknown. Like we sort of, we've seen the other guys and don't love what we've seen in this guy. We, we haven't seen a ton of. So maybe he's the answer. I don't like the Rutgers game was weird to me because yes, it was entirely underwhelming from a receiver perspective. But prior to that, like, I had liked a little bit of what I seen from Bryson Rogers and Milan Graham was like getting open. He just dropped the ball too, too many times. Right. So I don't know if they maybe call things a little differently and, and those guys just show up with like in a little better mode than they were against Rutgers then. Yeah, I think it's not going to be the same, but I still think they can throw it. It probably well enough to win the game, certainly be lower scoring and you're putting it on your defense much more than you would be otherwise. But I don't think it's like if Jeremiah and Carnell play awesome. If they don't play, Ohio State's gonna lose. Like, I don't think it's that black and white.
- [111:26]
B
Okay, I agree, I agree. I don't think it's that black and white and some combination of Max Claire and you know, the receivers can't be less impactful than they were against, in Rutger against Rutgers and then the run game that has risen to the challenge here a little bit. And then also just like the foundation of the backbone of this Ohio State defense. I, I agree. I, I don't know that, you know, we're gonna do it on our feeling show on Substack. You can join us there. Billandtougosu.substack.com Backslash the Game Special to get your free trial. You know, there's a lot of nervous Ohio State fans, but that's just by. That's just normal nervous that I think people, you know, understand. Oh, man. I. It feels like maybe at least one of the receivers will be out there, but even if they're not, there are other things at play here for Ohio State that. There have been times where Ohio State, I mean, they're always excellent in the throw game, but then what else after that? And that's the thing. If you go back through the history of this Michigan series, it's like, okay, like you. You watch some of the things like, oh, like the game where Chip Trainum's a linebacker and he's now the starting running back. And the times when they clearly had the second best defense in the game and sometimes they weren't sure how much they could rely on this defense or the Jim Knowles was making goofy calls to take them out of. Of good situations and hand Michigan opportunities. And so that. That the throw game is in question going into this game. I think in the past four years, if. If you had a situation where Ohio State's two all American receivers might not play any of the previous four years, I think people would be freaking out far more than they're freaking out now, because Ohio State's never had a backbone and a foundation in the other areas like they do right now now. And they still matter tremendously. But what you just said, if they don't play, it's not like Ohio State's gonna lose. I think everybody agrees with that.
- [113:30]
C
Yeah. And I mean, we'll. I still. And like, I guess like to get it out there.
- [113:35]
B
My.
- [113:35]
C
My thought at the moment is, as we're recording this at 1208 on Wednesday, that Jeremiah will play and Carnell will see. Like, I don't have a great feel for. For that like that.
- [113:45]
B
I don't know.
- [113:45]
C
I don't know where you are with that. That's where.
- [113:47]
B
Yeah, I think that's probably where I am too.
- [113:48]
C
Yeah. This is like, to quickly to talk about, like, Michigan's run defense, YSA's run game. Michigan's run defense statistically very good. 2.98 yards per carry allowed, like, excellent. And like, they, you know, they. They face Nebraska with Emma Johnson. They held him in check. They face Washington with Jonah Coleman. They held him in check. Really kind of smothered the run Games with of Maryland and Northwestern and Purdue the last couple of weeks. But again, like the outliers, USC, USC ripped off 6.2 yards per carry, 224 yards in that game. Michigan has allowed 100 yards in three other games. 138 to Oklahoma on 40 carries, 115 to Michigan State on 38 carries, 138 to Purdue on 39 carries. So the efficiency there is pretty low. And then USC 224 on 36 carries. And that was USC like a, a heavy like gap scheme counter kind of team. And maybe it's just coincidence and it won't matter but like last week against Rutgers was like the best Ohio State's run counter all year. So I, I don't know. That probably has a far more to do with Rutgers than it does Ohio State. In fact it definitely has more to do with Rutgers than it does Ohio State. But I think, I think it's still about those, those more kind of like perimeter hitting runs for Ohio State if they can get them than it is like trying to run it up the middle and move Michigan's defensive line in the way they were trying to do too often last year. And then like just quickly on Ohio State's running backs like I, I, I agree with Ryan Day's assessment that they're all like kind of to a man playing better. And it is interesting to look like everyone likes Bo Jackson, right? They think he's the guy and he's been playing well. His numbers are like the same as Jordan Marshalls and, and Justice Haynes they have more touchdowns but like Jordan Marshall's 6.09 yards per carry, Bo Jackson's better 6.47. Marshall has 871 yards, Jackson has 835. Like Jackson, I don't know that I predict it but he could become a thousand yard rusher in this game against Michigan with like 170 yards or so. So and he's only getting the ball 12 times a game. So at the, the run game is not the thing Ohio State needs to show up and hang its hat on. I think the RPO game could be. And, and, and with that as, as you hopefully like soften up Michigan's defense a little bit, maybe you can run it some. The thing that I would be surprised, maybe this is famous last words too. Michigan was able to entirely shut down Ohio State's rushing attack like while maintaining a light box last year year. I don't know that they'll be able to do that this year and that's less about Ohio State's run game being better than it was last year, I think it's about the same. And the running back position is, is slightly worse this year. Not slightly worse, it's significantly worse. But in terms of like efficiency and offensive line play and all that stuff, like it's, it's kind of the same as it was last year. I just, I don't. Michigan doesn't have guys like Graham and Grant who can just like own their gaps and, and kind of do it themselves. So it just makes me interested how Michigan will play it. Well, Michigan try to play the exact same way it played it last year or do they understand they're not the same personnel wise and have to play it a little differently? And if they do, does that, like, does that take the roof off the passing game at all? Because Ohio State really could not attack downfield last year with the way Michigan was defending them. Maybe they'll have some more opportunities to do that this year because Michigan will have to defend the run a little differently.
- [117:28]
B
What, what's your vibe for Julian saying in this game? RPO game, taking the shots if and when they're there?
- [117:35]
C
That's the biggest thing that I think that's the, the biggest question on my mind is, is when the shots are there, will he take them? And, and I think if it's to Smith and Tate, he will if it's to anybody else, is the question right? Like, you can't, you can't waste the opportunities when Brandon Innocent, Max Claire are running down the field uncovered for 50 yard chunks and you don't, you don't throw the ball. And we had a mailbag question this week of like, what do you make of. Of sayings, like inability to see that? I don't think that's what it is. I think he does see it. I think if they like watch him from whatever like the, the all 22 of you, that's like looking at his face. He's looking right at that. I don't think it's that he's not recognizing the coverage and not recognizing the way the play is developed. I think he's doing the risk reward in his head of saying like, if that's Smith or Tate and I throw it there, they're going to catch it. And if it's not them, I'm not sure if they're going to catch it. Meanwhile, this guy who's eight yards away from me is also open. Let's take the eight yards, right? And I think he's got to get past that a Little bit. I wanted to ask Ryan Day that on Tuesday, and I didn't ask it. I might ask it on Wednesday if, If I feel like there's a way to, like, just like, what do you, what do you talk about with Julian when guys who aren't Jeremiah and Carnell are, are clearly wide open and the ball doesn't go their way? Like, what's, what's the next step that gets Julian to making those throws?
- [118:53]
B
It. Does he need to do it in the Michigan game or as we talked about on our quarterback show on Tuesday, if Julian saying doesn't throw a pick and is his. And is like a decent version of his efficient self, is Ohio State in very good position to win this, even if he turns down three deep shots that might have been there?
- [119:18]
C
Yeah, quite. Quite possibly. It's the wide open deep shots I'm talking about. Like, I get if you don't want to throw a contested ball down the field to Max Claire or Brandon Ennis, but those guys were. There was no one within 20 yards.
- [119:28]
B
There's no, there's no risk. There's no actual risk. It's not going to be picked.
- [119:32]
C
Yeah, yeah, it's not gonna be. Unless you throw a blind drive at chest level to them. Like, it's not. Yeah, yeah. Which he doesn't do. So, like, I think it's just having to. Because even if you look at his, his throws of 20 plus yards, it's like double digits to Tate and Smith and like five to Claire and then like two or fewer for everybody else. Just like he doesn't have a lot of reps throwing to those guys down the field in games. And you know, and even the stuff with Tate and Smith is like, especially with Smith is like something he had to like, kind of grow into a little bit. And it's kind of a shame that like, he finally got to it and then he lost both those guys for a couple of games. But like, like, you know, the Penn State game, they were, they were bombing it all over the place. So I think that's like, you know, it's a big game. I, I didn't, I didn't think he looked rattled at all against Texas. I think he operated what was given to him quite well and, and didn't look overwhelmed and didn't look phased by the moment and didn't, didn't play as if he was under a lot of duress. So I have no reason to think that that will suddenly happen in this game.
- [120:38]
B
Okay.
- [120:38]
C
Even though it is on the road against a good Michigan team and all the stakes that come with that. So if he's, you know, if he's like a point guard, I think that's fine. But he can also go out there and like let it rip a little bit too. And, and if he's in that mode, like if he's in, if he's, if he's more in like the Penn State Julian saying mode than he was the Texas Julian saying mode and like I, I think they could, they could potentially like put up a pretty big number, but I don't, I don't know how ICE is going to play it. And a lot of that is, is predicated upon what the receiver situation is. But I don't know how do you feel about saying like I, I feel pretty good about him going into the game.
- [121:19]
B
Yeah. As we covered on the show, I mean, I think, I think he just, he tends for the loose plays far less than McCord and Howard during the course of the regular season and for a young quarterback and then even Bryce Underwood, what are we talking about with Bryce Underwood? High ceiling, low floor. He'll make great throws and then he'll make the mistakes. Like Julian saying story is he'll make great throws and then he'll turn down the opportunity to make great throws. That's his negative. And so for any young quarterback, and he's a year more experienced than Bryce Underwood, but he's still young, he's still a first time starter. He's still never played in the game before. If that's what, if that's what you're screwing up, that's a good screw up. And so, and then when you look at the history again of Ohio State quarterbacks throwing interceptions in this game has killed them the past two years. Ryan Day, he still says no, he has the most talented passing attack in the country. And the first thing he always says is take care of the ball. And so there's the evidence from the past two years of that's even more important for this. So I don't know if he'll pull the trigger on, I think, think Ohio State fans could walk away from Saturday thinking like, oh man, there were a couple that were there. Especially to your point of if it was somebody other than Tate or Smith running open. But as long as he doesn't throw a pick that gets returned inside the 10 yard line, I think Ohio State's probably okay. And for this moment, I think it's still a worthy trade off. Now, if they're playing Texas Tech and that defense in a playoff semifinal, if they're playing Texas A and M. If they're playing an Oregon team that has a good defense and can put up points, if they're playing when Indiana, the Big Ten championship game. To get over the top against teams like that, you probably got to let those go, Julian. You probably got to make yourself take those risks because no matter how good Ohio State is, they probably still need to hit some of those to beat the best teams in the country. I don't know if that's the plan for Michigan. It might be even more take care of the ball and let our defense handle the rest. And we like the position we'll be in.
- [123:27]
C
Yeah, that's. I think you and I are in this in the same spot there. And I don't. I. I don't think Julian Sands, like, quite ready to, like, be. No, maybe he is ready. I don't know. He just hasn't had to be yet. Like, if it's. If it's a tight game for whatever reason, and like, we know all the reasons it can get there. Like, is he. Is he ready to, like, kind of put the offense on his back and do some dipsy. Do stuff and make some plays and do some stuff scrambling. We've seen him run a little bit. Like, if it turns into that kind of game, I'm. I'm more curious than I am, like, sure that he can or cannot do it. It's a thing, like, whatever. That's stupid column that dude from Football Scoop wrote about Julian saying you can't win the Heisman because he's not. He's not lost or been. Been in a losing position enough. It could. It could definitely happen in this game. And I'm just like, fascinated to see what. What he looks like in a situation like that if it were to occur. Okay.
- [124:25]
B
Anything else on that side of the ball? Ohio State offense, Michigan defense?
- [124:29]
C
Nope. I think you covered it.
- [124:31]
B
All right. It's a 10 and a half point spread as we record here on Wednesday. The total is 43 and a half. Bill Landis, would you like to make a prediction for Ohio State at Michigan in the game?
- [124:47]
C
Yes, I would love to. I am picking Ohio State because I've done that every year. Why stop now? I'm picking Ohio State 2814. I don't. And I think it could be. I think it could be wider margin than that. It could be closer to depending on the receiver. Other stuff, I. I just. I'm not entirely sure what Ohio State's office is going to do in this game because, like, because of the lingering unknowns. But I feel pretty confident that Michigan's not scoring more than twice.
- [125:18]
B
Okay.
- [125:19]
C
And I think even scoring that much can be pretty difficult just because of a. How good Ohio State's defense is. So like I'm kind of just banking on that. And it could be 1714 in a real stinker of a game and kind of a slugfest. I don't think I'd be floored by that.
- [125:32]
B
But.
- [125:33]
C
But I think the thing that could happen in this game that I'd be most surprised by is like Michigan's offense finally being the one that cracks Ohio State's defense for something more than a couple of scores.
- [125:43]
B
Yeah. Okay. A note of a mistake that I made in a show recently. We were talking about the idea of Ohio State has scored, has allowed more than 23 points and has scored 24 in every one of them. But they didn't score 24 against Texas. And again it was 14 7. It was pointed out to us by one of our subscribers. So that was a mistake by me. So like. But other than that they have, they have scored at least 24 in every game. So you're a 2814 Ohio State. So you are slightly under and you do have Ohio State to cover. Not a gambling show, but if you care about those things. I started off this show with Ohio state with a 28. And then as you were talking about the Ohio State offense, I did scooch them up to 31, even though I agree with the idea of Ryan Day doesn't want to kick field goals. But I guess this is maybe like they get in the red zone and they get a penalty and they wind up like with 4th and goal from the 13 or something. Right. And you're not going to go for it and it's a 30 yard field goal. So like, okay, we'll kick it. So I have 31. 16. Okay, so which is again, just having watched enough of Bryce Underwood and Jordan Marshall's, like, do I think they could score, score three times? Like, yeah, I guess I have maybe a missed extra point or they go for two for some reason or you know, I don't really think this is three field goals in a touchdown because I don't think Michigan's kicker is maybe going to do that. And also they won't be in that many scoring positions. But I think if Michigan gets to 20, I'll be surprised. Now they didn't need to get to 20 last year and they won. So like that's kind of the point here. 20 seems like a lot to ask of Michigan's offense. So then can Ohio State's offense get to at least 20 and make sure that, like, okay, we backed up the defense enough that you're not looking at another 13 to 10. And even with the receiver uncertainty, I think there are enough things there to think, yes, the Ohio State offense can get to 20.
- [127:47]
C
Yeah, I, yeah, I think we're of similar minds here. The 1. A question was asked to me on a podcast this week, if for whatever reason, the opportunity presented itself for Ryan Day to, to like, run Michigan off the field, I don't think he'd do it because I think if Ohio State got up by that, like, enough for him to think it's go time, he would be taking his receivers out of the game and not leaving Matt there, like, because, like, those guys would have to stay in the game for him to do that. And I don't think he would do that.
- [128:14]
B
Yeah, and it's just hard. It's just one, you know, there's a, I think there's a lot of people ask about that kind of stuff, like, is it, would it be, is it more likely that Ohio State breaks the streak, like, with just like a gigantic win so they don't have to get tight or what, you know, or, or should Ohio State plan a flag if they win or whatever? And it just is one of those, again, where nothing else for three and a half hours, nothing else in the world matters. But if the game is in hand or if the game has just ended and Ohio State has won, then the next things do matter because you've accomplished what you're trying to do here. And so rubbing it in on Michigan or running it up on Michigan or planting a flag on Michigan, beating Michigan is the most important thing. Sticking it to Michigan, I don't know if that is more important than getting ready to play Indiana, than getting ready for a playoff run, then, you know, so I, I, I, I don't know. If it was back in the old days and you had 40 days off until your next game, then maybe you wouldn't stick it to Michigan if you had the opportunity. But especially given the health stuff, as you said, once this game's won, that's the victory. And then you got other stuff to think about.
- [129:31]
C
Yeah, Yeah, I don't think. I just worry about winning the game. Don't, don't, don't worry about what it looks like or what you do after. Just win the game first.
- [129:42]
B
First. So you'll be, I mean, you'll, you know, I'm sure You'll be down in the field or whatever and getting your.
- [129:47]
C
I don't know that we're allowed on the field. I can't remember.
- [129:49]
B
Oh, but you'll be ready for, for pepper spray and flag planting and I mean, you got to be prepared for it.
- [129:56]
C
But I, Yeah, I do now. I missed, I missed it last year because I, I walked down and I just walked underneath the south stands instead of walking onto the field. And then like I got to the tunnel and they're like, guys walking up the tunnel like crying and screaming. I was like, what the hell happened? Happened? Yeah. No idea. I had no idea what happened.
- [130:13]
B
Oh, wow.
- [130:14]
C
10 minutes later. Yeah. Yeah.
- [130:17]
B
Okay. 2814. Bill Landis, 31. 16. For me, we will have an immediate post game show on this YouTube channel. So we would suggest that you subscribe, tell your friends about the Bill and Doug show so you don't miss that post game show on Saturday. We'll have national picks that will go up on Thursday. And we're going to continue this ride through the rest of the season. And we appreciate that we get to hang out with you guys talking about ball and talking about the Ohio State Buckeyes. We obviously do some national college football stuff as well, but this is the bread and butter. This is as good as it gets. This is the best rivalry in college sports and arguably the best rivalry in, in North American sport in general. And we will be covering it to the utmost here on the YouTube channel and the podcast feed and of course on our substack, Bill and Doug. Osu.substack.com if you put in backslash the game special, you'll get to check it out for free for at least like the next eight days or so. So anything else for the folks? Landis, we good to go?
- [131:16]
C
I think, I think 2 hours and 5 minutes about covers it.
- [131:19]
B
All right. You want to get back on in like 20 minutes and start another two hour show? Yeah. So that the other show today will be over on the sub stack feed talking thoughts, feelings. We have survey questions, hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of responses from our substack subscribers talking about their feelings for the game. And we'll also squeeze in some what you watch and what you eat and thinking over there with the substack folks. So for now, so grateful to you guys. Have a great Thanksgiving with your family and your friends. Have a great time watching NFL games on Thursday, a great slate of college games on Friday. And then of course, strap in for this one at noon on Saturday. For now, he's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Lay Maurice and that was the Bill and Doug show.
- [132:09]
A
I'm a high note hitting songbird, but I'm also a bird watching backpacker.
- [132:15]
B
Wood thrush, three o'. Clock.
- [132:16]
A
Walmart has a wellness side too, with tons of things I need to feel good. From electrolytes to help keep me hydrated to soothing cough drops for after every show.
- [132:25]
C
Oh man. How about waterproof boots?
- [132:28]
D
Size 10?
- [132:29]
A
They've been got half a billion things online, on the app and in store.
- [132:32]
B
Really?
- [132:33]
C
Who knew?
- [132:34]
B
Okay, was that you or the birds?
- [132:36]
A
Check out the wellness side of Walmart today. What do you think makes the perfect snack?
- [132:41]
B
Hmm, it's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient.
- [132:44]
A
Could you be more specific?
- [132:45]
B
When it's cravinient. Okay, like a freshly baked cookie made with real butter, available right down the.
- [132:50]
D
Street at am, pm or a savory.
- [132:52]
B
Breakfast sandwich I can grab in just a second at amp.
- [132:55]
A
I'm seeing a pattern here.
- [132:56]
B
Well yeah, we're talking about what I.
- [132:58]
A
Crave, which is anything from am, pm.
- [133:00]
B
What more could you want? Stop by ampm where the snacks and.
- [133:03]
D
Drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience ampm.
- [133:07]
B
Too much good stuff.