The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State vs. Michigan Picks and Big Game Breakdown

Podcast: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis
Episode Date: November 26, 2025
Main Theme: Deep-dive breakdown of the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry game, focusing on tactical, personnel, and emotional factors, with game picks and thorough positional previews.

Episode Overview

Doug and Bill deliver a comprehensive, football-first breakdown of the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 15 Michigan Wolverines, set for Saturday at noon in Ann Arbor. The discussion covers program history, key matchups on both sides of the ball, the unique “vibes” this year, and how each team stacks up. Special attention is given to recent trends, game-altering plays in special teams, and how injuries and young talent could factor into the result. The hosts finish with their predictions, reflecting confidence in Ohio State’s defense-first approach, and analyze scenarios with or without Ohio State’s star receivers.

Series and Rivalry Context

Power and Parity in The Game

• The 121st meeting: Michigan leads, 62-51-6 (reflects vacated 2010 game).
• “Since 1919, Ohio State actually has the edge 51-49-4. Since Woody Hayes arrived in 1951, Ohio State has the edge 39-31-2.” — Doug (05:34)
• When both teams are ranked, the series is dead even (22-22-4).
• Both teams are “good-good” in the modern era; the rivalry feels more genuine and less variable.

Odd-Years in Ann Arbor

• This is Ohio State’s 11th trip to Ann Arbor with no losses. The result? 4-1 when undefeated in Ann Arbor—the last trip (2023), they lost.
• Key point: The challenge isn’t just Michigan being ‘up,’ but that Michigan is fully functional again.

Special Teams—Swing Moments and Nerves

Ohio State’s Issues Fielding Kicks

• Ryan Day’s warning: “We have to field kicks and we have to make kicks.” — Doug (09:42)
• Recounting recent disasters:
  • 2023: Punt over head to the 9, kickoff fumbled to the 6.
  • 2021: Let kickoffs bounce, lost field position (5-yard line), dropped kickoffs.
• “This might be the thing they are the worst at in the rivalry game — Ohio State suddenly can't catch kicks… that to me is something of tightness in your own head.” — Doug (11:17)
• Both note: Fielding kicks a persistent, mental error—likely nerves.

Michigan’s Adjustment

• Michigan benched Samaj Morgan after muffed punts. Turned to Andrew Marsh, their dynamic young WR.

“Andrew Marsh is Michigan’s version of Jeremiah Smith. He’s arguably the most dynamic receiver in a decade. He might be a real problem in the return game.” — Doug (14:45)

• Bill wonders if Michigan will try to expose the Buckeyes’ nerves by testing their kick returners intentionally.

Kicking Game

• Ohio State: Jaden Fielding’s record vs. Michigan is abysmal (2/5, 40%), much worse than his record vs. everyone else (85%). “He missed two field goals against Michigan last year because it was the Michigan game and it’s nervy.” — Doug (18:02)
• Michigan: Dominic Zavata (All-American last year) has “lost it,” missing multiple attempts recently and pushing them right.

“Both teams’ field goal units are unreliable... but I think one coach [Sherrone Moore] will trust his kicker and one won’t [Ryan Day]. Is that a plus or a negative?” — Doug (21:11)

Crucial Segment:

• Special teams may play a pivotal role again as last year’s outcome pivoted on missed/made field goals. (22:07)

Ohio State Defense vs. Michigan Offense

Defensive Dominance—By the Numbers

• 9 TDs and 8 FGs allowed in 11 games. “First team defense has given up 5 TDs in 11 games. Is that good?” — Doug (23:39)
• Historic units: “By one metric, the Brian Fremeau Drive Success Index—this is the second-best defense since 2007. Only Bama ‘16 and Georgia ‘21 are in the conversation.” — Doug (25:33)
• 1st in SP+, 3rd in stop rate, 1st in points per drive allowed.

“It is a cliché that defense wins championships. But now it’s truth for this OSU team; for the first time, it's a defense-first team.” — Bill (26:55)

Arvell Reese: The “Powered-Down” Secret Weapon

• Reese hasn't shown up in the past 3 games but that’s by design: “He is in neutral. He has not tried a move in three games. They are not asking him to do that.” — Doug (30:49)
• Expect Arvell Reese, who was purposely load-managed, to be fully “activated” as an edge menace this week.

“He’s been powered down for three games. Now it’s Christmas morning—they’re opening up their superhero toy and he’s going to Ann Arbor.” — Doug (30:59)

• Bill: “Every expectation in the world that Matt Patricia has been sitting on some ideas for Arvell Reese in this game.” (35:13)

Scheme and Execution

• OSU rarely blitzes mobile QBs, preferring to “cage” and play coverage. For Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, Bill favors blitzing early downs; Doug is less convinced.
  • Underwood’s blitz numbers last 3 games: 9-17, 84 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, 33% pressure-to-sack — shows he struggles when heated up.
• OSU’s strengths: coverage, limiting big plays over their heads, making opponents string together mistake-free drives.

Michigan's Playmakers & Weaknesses

• Bryce Underwood (QB): True freshman. Gifts & mistakes come in equal quantities.

  • “He might have the longest distance between floor and ceiling of any QB in the Power Four.” — Doug (39:50)

• Jordan Marshall (RB): Converted to RB1 due to Haynes' injury. Efficient, not exceedingly explosive, but a vision and balance runner.

• Michigan O-Line: Three redshirt freshmen start. Strong at center guard, tackles can be got after — especially in pass pro.

• Andrew Marsh (WR): Michigan’s dynamic target; No. 82 overall recruit, used like a WR1 since mid-season.

  • “They build the offense around him. He’s their deep threat, short threat, everything threat.” — Doug (71:00)
  • “He could absolutely play at Ohio State.” — Bill (74:06)

Key Defensive Matchups

• Coverage: Davidson Igbinosun (OSU CB) is playing at an All-American level, anticipated critical in slowing Marsh and McCully.
• Personnel Questions: If Styles Jr. (slot CB) can’t go, expect Bryce West over Devin Sanchez in coverage due to reliability and tackling.
• SS Caleb Downs: Moving all over the field, will be pivotal in run support and blitz look deception.

Michigan Offense—Tactical Details

• Run Game: Watch the center-guard combo for interior creases, especially vs. Kaden McDonald (OSU DT), finalist for the Outland.
• Explosiveness: Michigan has the most 50+ yard runs in the nation, but OSU has not allowed breakaways and tackles well in space.
• Tight End Impact: Marlon Klein (inline) and Max Bredeson (FB/TE), but Bredeson is questionable with a foot injury.

“The way they’re explosive is mostly: block here, block there… they’re very good at getting to the second level.” — Doug (65:04)

Ohio State Offense vs. Michigan Defense

Michigan D—A Notch Below Recent Vintages

• “Good, but a degree or two below the defenses of ‘21 and ‘23. Not quite the same star power or dominance.” — Doug (99:02)
• DE Derrick Moore: True pass rush threat (34 pressures, 9.5 sacks); Bill expects Michigan to “hunt” OSU’s right side on third-and-long.
  • Pairing Moore with Barham (hybrid LB/DE) over the right side likely to test OSU's most vulnerable spot (Phil Daniels at RT, Shabola at RG).

“If there was one thing I could bet most money on in this game, it’s that first clear passing down, you’ll see Barham and Moore over the right side.” — Bill (86:59)

• DL Rotation: Deep and experienced, plays 9 guys, but less “wow” than previous years.
• LB Ernest Hausmann's Availability: Uncertain; if out, coverage over the middle (TEs) is a greater Michigan vulnerability.

Secondary & Coverage

• Michigan will play overwhelmingly zone coverage, partly out of necessity: “I don’t think Michigan can cover [Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate].” — Bill (107:24)
• If Rod Moore (Michigan’s All-American safety) were healthy, things would look different, but he’s out.

Ohio State Offensive Dynamics

• WR Injuries: The health of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate is the greatest variable.
• If neither plays, OSU must rely on production from Max Leier (TE), Brandon Inniss (WR), and less-experienced receivers.

“If Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate both play, I don’t think Michigan can cover them… But it’s not all black and white, Ohio State can win without them.” — Bill (110:09)

• Julian Sayin (OSU QB):

  • Precision, high floor, but sometimes leaves deep shots untaken unless it’s Smith/Tate running them.
  • No real turnover bug—if he just “takes care of the ball” and is efficient, OSU should be in good position.
  • “He tends for the loose plays far less than McCord last year or Howard—his negative is he turns down shots. That’s a good negative for a young QB.” — Doug (121:18)

• Run Game: Bo Jackson and company offer efficiency but not elite explosiveness; Michigan’s run defense is good but was gashed by USC for 224 yards.

“What surprises me if Michigan can finally crack Ohio State’s D for more than a couple scores… I don’t think their offense can do it.” — Bill (125:18)

Key Matchups & X-Factors

• Ohio State’s offense in 12 personnel: If Michigan responds with big bodies (3-4), OSU could exploit this in the pass game with TEs, as USC did earlier in the season.
• Interior Line Play: Both sides feature strong, technical interior play but weaknesses at tackle (Michigan O-line—young tackles; OSU O-line—right side).
• Early Downs: Bill expects OSU to test Michigan with runs and RPOs, while looking for downfield shots if Smith/Tate play.
• Weather: Not anticipated to impact passing (no high wind); snow is not a deterrent (CJ Stroud’s 400+ yards in 2022 cited).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “He’s load managing on the field.” — Bill on Arvell Reese’s neutral month (34:48)
• “If it were up to me, they would blitz Underwood.” — Bill (37:11)
• “This might be the thing they are the worst at in the rivalry game — Ohio State suddenly can’t catch kicks.” — Doug (11:17)
• “Andrew Marsh is Michigan’s version of Jeremiah Smith.” — Doug (14:45)
• “If you see an 81 or 18 over the right side—Landis said, ‘Watch out for this!’” (91:14)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [04:54] — Historical Series Analysis
• [09:42] — Special Teams Deep Dive: Fielding kicks and game-changing errors
• [17:16] — Field goal kicking, nerves, and game-impact
• [22:24] — Michigan Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
• [25:33] — OSU Defensive Historic Context
• [30:49] — “Powered-down” Arvell Reese: Expect explosive impact
• [39:25] — Underwood vs. OSU’s blitz/cage dilemma
• [46:45] — CB Davidson Igbinosun’s ascending play, OSU secondary matchups
• [53:21] — Box vs. Nickel: How OSU may handle Michigan’s personnel
• [58:00] — Michigan O-line: Youth at tackle, strength inside
• [65:04] — Jordan Marshall: Vision, patience, and OSU’s run defense
• [71:00] — Andrew Marsh: Michigan’s WR1 matchup, usage, stats
• [86:59] — Michigan’s Defense: Pass rush deployment over OSU’s right side
• [99:02] — Michigan D relative to 2021/2023 units
• [107:24] — OSU WRs: If healthy, Michigan “can’t cover them”
• [110:09] — If both top OSU WRs are out: Offense viability
• [117:35] — Julian Sayin’s risk/reward approach and key to victory
• [124:47] — Game Predictions and Reasoning

Final Predictions and Closing Thoughts

Bill’s Pick:
Ohio State 28, Michigan 14
“It could be wider or closer depending on receiver injuries, but I’m confident Michigan won’t score more than twice.” (124:47)

Doug’s Pick:
Ohio State 31, Michigan 16
“If Michigan gets to 20, I’ll be surprised. Even if Ohio State’s WRs are missing, the defense and foundation elsewhere should carry the day.” (125:32)

Both believe the special teams and turnover margin are critical, but expect Ohio State’s historic defense and “high floor” QB play from Julian Sayin to make the difference—even if the passing game is limited by injuries.

Summary Takeaways

• Elite Ohio State defense vs. a young, mistake-prone Michigan offense
• Special teams and field position could swing the game yet again
• OSU’s depth and home-run threats at WR (pending health) give them a matchup edge, but even if limited, the Buckeyes have enough to out-score a Michigan team struggling to find explosive plays without big offensive mistakes from their own QB
• Michigan’s pass rush (esp. over OSU’s right side in passing situations) is the biggest threat to OSU’s offensive consistency
• The “vibes” are Buckeye-favored, breaking down eras of the rivalry and emphasizing the less-dominant Michigan D compared to previous meetings.

For fans seeking a tactical football deep-dive, this show is essential pregame prep, blending granular X’s and O’s, personnel trends, and the all-important emotional stakes of college football’s ultimate rivalry.