Ohio State vs. Rutgers Picks and Preview: Buckeyes' health, and will Rutgers ever beat Ohio State?

Summary

The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State vs. Rutgers Picks and Preview

Podcast: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk (Blue Wire)
Episode Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis

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Episode Overview

Doug and Bill dive deep into Ohio State's upcoming matchup with Rutgers, examining Ohio State's health, the state of both teams, whether Rutgers will ever beat Ohio State, notable individual and team statistical trends, and how injuries will shape strategy ahead of The Game (Michigan). With humor, historical context, and their trademark banter, the hosts provide fans a rich preview with big-picture insight and granular analysis.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Game Context and Stakes

• Ohio State: 10-0, No. 1 in the country, defending national champs, 31.5-point favorite over Rutgers.
• Rutgers: 5-5, bowl eligibility hopes, statistically strong offense but atrocious defense.
• Historical Lopsidedness: Ohio State is 10-0 all time vs. Rutgers and has never scored fewer than 49 at home against them.
• Weather: Expected to be fine (01:36).
• Broadcast: Noon in Columbus, called by Gus and Joel.

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2. Ohio State Injury Updates (Pass-Catchers and QB)

• Injured/Questionable Players: Jeremiah Smith (WR), Carnell Tate (WR), Julian Sayin (QB), CJ Donaldson (RB).
• Coach Speak: Ryan Day is transparent about Julian Sayin (practiced, fine) & CJ Donaldson (good to go), but evasive about Smith and Tate (04:10).
  • Quote (Doug, 05:53): “He was willing to divulge two positive injury updates... then he did not provide any specific information about Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.”
• Reading Between the Lines: Both hosts think Smith & Tate won’t play vs. Rutgers but should be ready for Michigan.
  • Quote (Bill, 07:36): “I’m probably like 90% [sure] they’re gonna play against Michigan...No real reason to play them this week.”

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3. Big Picture: Should Starters Rest for Michigan/Playoff?

• Strategy: Both agree Ohio State benefits most from full health for Michigan rather than the Big Ten Championship, given playoff structure.
  • Quote (Doug, 08:58): “If it’s a binary choice, win the Big Ten championship or beat Michigan, it’s a gazillion to zero on that vote, right?”
• Risk of Rust?: Some tension between total rest and keeping players sharp.

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4. Rutgers’ Strengths: Really? Best Receivers on the Field?

• With Smith and Tate Out: Rutgers could have the top two receivers (KJ Duff & Ian Strong) on the field.
  • Stat (Doug, 03:05): Rutgers’ Duff and Strong are #2 and #4 in Big Ten receiving yards per game.
  • Quote (Bill, 02:34): “Yes, I think it’s possible that Rutgers will have the two best receivers on the field.”

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5. Matchup Nerd-Out: OSU Defense vs. Rutgers Offense

• Rutgers Offense: Explosive production, strong QB (Athan Kaliakmanis), big receivers, dynamic RB (Antwan Raymond).
• Ohio State Defense: Top-ranked nationally, but hasn’t faced many potent offenses.
  • Quote (Bill, 15:13): “By EPA per play, this is the second best offense [Ohio State will] see this year—better than Michigan, actually, which is kind of weird because they throw the ball really well.”
• Interesting Note: Rutgers is “dead last” in yards allowed per carry nationally—over 6.5, “a full yard worse than the next team” (Bill, 22:19).

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6. Historical Perspective: Why Rutgers Will Never Beat OSU

• Doug’s Deep Dive: Ohio State is 10-0 vs. Rutgers—the most wins without a loss for any OSU foe. This is a rare, possibly unprecedented dominance between major programs (36:09-45:09).
  • Quote (Doug, 43:14): “I just can’t picture in my head the circumstance in which Ohio State loses a football game to Rutgers.”
• National Comparisons: Most other "10-0" or better series involve non-conference or non-major foes, making OSU-Rutgers unique (40:00+).

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7. X’s & O’s: How Will Ohio State Attack?

• Passing Game Focus: Despite the likely absence of Smith & Tate, Doug and Bill expect OSU to work on timing/chemistry with young receivers and QB Sayin, rather than simply running it 40 times.
  • Quote (Bill, 31:10): “That’s the thing to make a game with a 30-point spread interesting: how does Julian Sayin adjust...without his best stuff against UCLA?”
  • Quote (Doug, 32:05): “Having Julian Sayin find it with your second-team receivers is advantageous to what [OSU] wants to do...They have to work on that.”
• Key Stat: Rutgers last ranked win was in 2009. Their run defense is, statistically, abysmal (22:31).

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8. Rutgers Offensive Strength: Legit or Mirage?

• Rutgers’ current offensive stats are their best since 2007 (Mike Teel/Ray Rice days), but Bill considers it merely “above average” rather than “good” (24:33).
• QB Kaliakmanis: Improved since Minnesota, still more dangerous than typical Rutgers QBs—likely their best in Big Ten play.

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9. Game Predictions, Spread & Trends

• Historical Trends: Ohio State is 8-1-1 vs. spread this year, 4-6 under; Rutgers 5-5 vs. spread, 6-4 over. Day is 3-2 vs. spread in pre-Michigan games (47:01).
• Both Hosts Predict Rutgers Covers:
  • Doug’s pick: Ohio State 38, Rutgers 14 (Ohio State win, Rutgers covers) (48:41).
  • Bill’s pick: Ohio State 42, Rutgers 14 (similar logic, expects Rutgers to score vs. OSU backups) (50:23).
  • Neither sees this as a matchup where Rutgers’ breakthrough is likely.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Doug (43:14): “I just can't picture in my head the circumstance in which Ohio State loses a football game to Rutgers.”
• Bill (22:19): “[Rutgers is] dead last in yards per play defense. Dead last in yards per carry defense… they are full yard worse than the next team.”
• Doug (08:59): “If it's a binary choice, win the Big Ten championship or beat Michigan, it's a gazillion to zero on that vote, right?”
• Bill (15:13): “By EPA per play, this is the second best offense they're going to see this year... better than Michigan, actually.”
• Doug (31:10): “If you're looking for a thing to make a game with a 30 point spread interesting, I think that's it [seeing how Sayin adjusts to adversity].”
• Bill (07:36): “I'm probably like 90 percent [sure] they’re gonna play against Michigan.”
• Doug (38:41): “Northwestern vs. Evanston High School... In what, when was it ever okay for colleges to play high school teams?”
• Bill (44:21): “I'm a little worried how much time you spent looking all that up,” referencing Doug’s deep statistical research.
• Comic relief: The 'Duff and Strong' as a buddy cop show/Homer Simpson reference (45:23).

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Important Timestamps

• Injury discussion & “competitive advantage” with Michigan coming: 04:10–08:19
• Would you rather be healthy for Michigan or Indy? 08:19–10:52
• Rutgers possibly fielding best WRs on the day: 02:34–03:05
• Rutgers offense vs. OSU defense (analytic deep dive): 15:13–18:41
• OSU-Rutgers historical lopsidedness & fun fact segment: 36:09–45:13
• Game predictions & rationale: 47:01–50:36

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Overall Tone & Style

The episode is rich with fun rivalry banter, deep stats, and playful jabs—balanced by serious football analysis and fan-focused insight. Doug and Bill keep the conversation accessible but never dumb it down, mixing historical trivia with tactical preview.

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Summary

• Expect a comfortable OSU win, but Rutgers' offense might create more intrigue than usual.
• Young OSU receivers (with stars likely out) offer a chance to test the Buckeye passing game and keep Sayin sharp ahead of Michigan.
• Rutgers' historically poor defense gives OSU a chance to build confidence but is not a real threat.
• No one can see Rutgers ever beating OSU, historically or in this weekend’s matchup.
• Both hosts pick Ohio State to win big but not cover the massive spread.

For detailed OSU, Michigan, and playoff analysis, and more fun banter, catch the post-game and follow Doug and Bill on Substack.

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Transcript

[Doug Lesmerises]

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[Doug Lesmerises]

Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show High State Rutgers Preview Noon Saturday Ohio Stadium Gus and Joel, right? Gus and Joel on the call.

[Bill Landis]

So I've heard. Yeah, but no, no big noon show that is in the show that's in Cincinnati.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So we are here to talk about the Ohio State fighting Buckeyes and the Rutgers fighting Scarlet Knights. 31 1/2 point spread for the Hometown Buckeyes who are 100 on the season. Number one in the country. Rutgers is five and five. The over under is 55 and a half. Ohio State is 100 all time versus Rutgers, which is something I want to talk about. They have scored at least 49 points against Rutgers every time in Columbus. So if we want to keep that in mind. Did you get a weather forecast, weatherman?

[Bill Landis]

Bill I haven't double checked it. I think it's supposed to be okay. I think it's just rain Friday, not Saturday.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay, so 31 and a half point spreads, pretty hefty. Ohio State did cover it last week against UCLA thanks to the second team offense touchdown engineered by Lincoln Keenholtz. Rutgers started 30 in the non conference, beat Ohio University 34 31. Then in week three Ohio State beat OU 37 9. So that's a common opponent there. For instance in the Big Ten, Rutgers has two wins, Purdue and Maryland. They've lost to Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon and Illinois. They lost 5610 to Oregon. Oregon was ahead 423 at the half in that one and then called off the dogs a little bit. My first question about this game, Bill Landis, is will Rutgers have the two best receivers on the field in Ohio Stadium on Saturday?

[Bill Landis]

That is an excellent question. My, my guess is probably yeah, I don't, I don't think Carnell Tate or Jeremiah Smith will play in this one that's just a guess that's not based off anything other than, like, vibes this week. I guess so Then it's left to Ohio State's very young receivers against ian Strong and K.J. duff, who are two of the better receivers in the Big Ten outside of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. So, yes, I think it's possible that Rutgers will have the two best receivers on the field this week.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Receiving yards per game Among Big Ten receivers, Makai Lemon for USC is first at 109 receiving yards per game. KJ Duff of Rutgers is second at 92.3 yards. Jeremiah Smith is third at 90.2. Ian Strong is fourth at 89.5 yards. Carnell Tate is fifth at 88.9 yards. So if they were both healthy with Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate in this game, we'd have four of the five leading receivers in the Big Ten. We have not talked about this since Wednesday night when we talked to Ryan Day after practice on Wednesday. And the most interesting part of that little exchange was he was asked about Julian Saen's health because Julian saying, rolled his ankle a little bit against ucla and he responded to that question and said, he's practiced and he's fine, he's good to go. He was asked about CJ Donaldson's health. You said you saw CJ Donaldson was out against ucla. He did not play against ucla. You said you saw pregame, what with CJ Donaldson last week, I thought he.

[Bill Landis]

Had his left thumb taped up.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay, so Ryan Day responded to the question about C.J. donaldson by saying, like, he's practiced, he should be good to go. And then when I asked him, how have things gone this week for Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, he said, they're working hard to get back and I don't want to say anything else about it. So he gave. He was willing to divulge two positive injury updates about important players on this team in Julian SA and CJ Donaldson. And then he did not provide any specific information about Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. And this is related. We'll continue to talk about this because we have not talked about. I wrote about it on our substack as soon as we got done on Tuesday, for instance, on our chat with our Substack subscribers, we gave them all this information on Wednesday evening. That's what we do on Substack. If you want to go hang out on Substack, we'd love to have you join us over there. Bill and Doug OSU substack.com We have not talked about it here. Did you read anything into that? The, the differences between what was revealed by Ryan Day from an injury standpoint and what was not?

[Bill Landis]

I mean I, I noted it. Yeah. I don't, I don't know that I read much into it because my expectation was just that those guys aren't going to play this week anyway. So he's not going to say that and he might as well sort of leave it up in the air. Right. Because again, like I do believe he, he thinks that Ohio State gained some sort of competitive advantage by, by not providing clarity on their situations with the Michigan game looming. So I, I guess I'll say like I showed up on Tuesday to the press conference thinking both guys probably weren't going to play this week and that they'll play against Michigan. And I still feel that way. I don't think anything's really changed for me.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. So I think. And then next week we will be talking with Ryan Day on Tuesday Michigan week. We'll plan to talk with players on Wednesday as we normally do. So this obviously is. Continues to be a major story, as was pointed out by one of our substack subscribers in the chat over there. Like when Ohio State has a season and season ending injury like last year when they had it with Seth McLaughlin or they had it with like they did announce that like they didn't. We weren't going to be like, is Josh Simmons gonna play this week?

[Bill Landis]

I don't know.

[Doug Lesmerises]

It's like, no, he's, he can't play. So I think the, the, the lack of certified information either way does matter that they, they aren't. Nobody is no Carnell, no jj and nobody has said we'll see you Saturday. They're good to go. It's this in between. But like the in between is not automatically worst case scenario. It's. But I at this point would be shocked if they play because what's the point?

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, yeah, I agree. Unless like they want to get Carnell some run before Michigan. But my, my gut because he hasn't played the last two weeks. But I would likewise be very surprised if both. If either guy plays.

[Doug Lesmerises]

But then as I'm agreeing with you, I don't know that there's anything that we would be operating under the idea of we secretly think they aren't going to play against Michigan. And like we're afraid to say it. Like I just, I'm thinking no this week probably yes the following week, unless some new information comes out that we don't currently have.

[Bill Landis]

That's exactly Where I am. Yeah, I, like, I. I've seen few. Not many suggest that, like, even if they're. If there's any doubt for Michigan, don't play them in that game because they want to win a national title. I don't think that's where Ohio State's headspace is relative to those two, because they want to beat Michigan and they want to go to the Big Ten title game. So, like, it's not. I'm not. I'm not 100 they're going to play against Michigan, but I'm probably like 90. They're gonna play against Michigan.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Just.

[Bill Landis]

Just like my feeling.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Not.

[Bill Landis]

Not based off any information that I know. Just kind of, kind of in the same spot as you. No real reason to play them this week, and there's really no reason to play them last week. And then we'll see if they're ready for. For Ann Arbor.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Not that that's what this show is about, but we talk about Ohio State stuff in every way possible. If you were Ohio State and you could be at full strength from a health perspective for either the Michigan game or the Big Ten championship game, and then regardless of those situations, you would be fine for the playoff. So let's, let's keep it. That's like, well, then if you can't play in the Big Ten championship game, are you sure you're gonna be. You will be, right? What would you rather be at your healthiest for Michigan or Indy?

[Bill Landis]

Michigan.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. Okay.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I just was double checking because, like. Yeah, okay, so it's like, after not all the way there, like, hold them out for Michigan. Like, for what? So then now are you just like.

[Bill Landis]

Being for the playoff, like, don't play them until cautious.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. Like wrap them in bubble wrap until the Rose Bowl. Like, that would be the idea here. Because, like, I also. If they're actually hurt, then yes, it's like if they can't play. But I think even from the. If, if it's more about caution, I'm not sure that bubble wrap until the Rose bowl is actually the best thing to do because I think now then you're creating the opportunity for some rust and for, you know, whatever. If they, if it's not that, like, well, they're not physically able to play. I think I'd rather have them out there doing a little bit, but I just wouldn't rather have them do it against Rutgers.

[Bill Landis]

Right. And I, I also, too, would think. And again, this is just me spitballing nothing about what I believe Ohio State to be thinking. Play them against Michigan and then set them, like, don't play them in the Big Ten championship, because if you beat Michigan, you secure a buy.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I agree. Because we've discussed that all year. We believe if it's a 12, 0, 12, 0. Highest state, Indiana, the winners, the 1, the losers, the 3. And now we can get into arguments of like, is the three seed better than the one seed in terms of your path?

[Bill Landis]

Oh, yeah. That's not exactly where I wanted to go, but it's just. For me, it's more about, do you have to play two weeks after the Big Ten championship or not? And as if Ohio State gets there, they won't have to.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. So I think that is correct. And then if you asked anybody in that building, as much as Ryan Day has discussed, these guys haven't been to Indy. Nobody on this team has been to India, won a Big Ten championship. That, of course, matters. If it's a binary choice, win the Big Ten championship or beat Michigan, it's a gazillion to zero on that vote. Right?

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. Yes.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So. So I, I actually think that, that, that, like, let's play them against Michigan. We think they're okay. We think we're not aggravating anything. We think we're not threatening their playoff availability. We're not doing anything to harm their future earnings potential. In the NFL, it's hard for anybody to be a hundred percent, but, like, we. They can play against Michigan, and then if they got a little. If playing Michigan does a little something to them, then we'll see him in the Rose bowl or whatever, or the, Whatever the bullet. Because, you know, we've lived in this world where the, the more you expand the playoff, the more people get worried about the regular season. And when you create this situation where you can get a buy without winning your conference championship, it's like, well, what is the value of a conference championship anymore? And that is a. I mean, it's a reasonable discussion, but, like, that is a much less important discussion than what is the value of the best rivalry in college football? And it's like, man, if we're it, whatever the value of a Big Ten championship is, it's not the same as a Michigan win.

[Bill Landis]

So would rather have the gold pants than whatever. The Amos Alonso Stag Trophy.

[Doug Lesmerises]

You can't put that on your keychain anyway. So it's like, what's the point? Yeah, your mom can't wear the Amos Alonza Stagger Trophy on a, on a, around her neck, on a necklace.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

What about toys?

[Bill Landis]

Do they have brands kids have been wanting all year?

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[Doug Lesmerises]

Time at participating McDonald's your how confident would you be in a bet that is no Tate, no Smith for Ruckers, both for Michigan?

[Bill Landis]

I'd be pretty confident.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, I think I would too.

[Bill Landis]

I'd place a wager on that if I could. Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. Okay. So do you want to talk about the other guys? K.J. duff and Ian Strong you got. I, I, I'm gonna admit that I'm not experts here. Are they pretty good, the Rutgers guys we're talking about?

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, they're deep. Yeah, they're good. They're big. Duff is six six and Strong is six three. And they are number one and number two in the country in contested catches. They also have a lot of contested catch opportunities because I guess they don't create a ton of separation but, but when throwing the ball in contested situations, they catch them. It's like they, they lead, they lead in catches but like not in catch rate because KJ Duff has like 17 on 31 tries or something like that. But yeah, they're, they're big. They got decent speed. And then there's like DT Sheffields. The third one is a slot guy they brought in transfer from North Texas who's got some real speed but but has not played as well as the other two and isn't targeted as much. But I, I do think like the The Rutgers offense vs. Ohio State defense is mildly interesting in this game. And this is not me trying to take anything away from Ohio State's defense. I think they're excellent. I think when they play good offenses, they're going to be good. But they haven't played a lot of good offenses this year by like EPA per play. This is the second best offense they're going to see this year. Like better than Michigan, actually, which is like, kind of weird because they throw the ball really well. And then the running back Antoine Raymond's like kind of a maniac. Second leading rusher in the Big Ten and I think he's fourth in the country and missed tackles for us. And like Ethan Cali Madness, for better or for worse, is gonna challenge your defense with throws. He might throw the ball to you, but he's gonna give his guys opportunities to make plays. So like Oregon totally shut them down. So Ohio State could very well do the same. And I think is. Is likely to, but we've not had much in a way of like matchups to get excited about when it comes to Ohio State's defense this year because they're so good and they just smother everybody. I don't know that this will be interesting, but I guess it could be maybe if like Ohio State decides it wants to get a little loose on defense and. And Cali Mattis's rifle and some balls up the seam or something like that.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I don't know. I would imagine that Jermaine Matthews is excited for this and that Davis and Igbinos is excited for this and get to like, get some balls in the air and let's challenge these guys and let's have, let's have people throw at us by the FEI. Brian from O. His. His rating. Illinois's offense 12th. Washington's offense 16th. Rutgers's offense 18th. So again, like in the discussion, Rutgers has a better offense than Michigan. True or false?

[Bill Landis]

That's tough.

[Doug Lesmerises]

It's close.

[Bill Landis]

It's on an automatic in Michigan's fit. I think I would still say Michigan, but it's close.

[Doug Lesmerises]

And especially Michigan without Justice Haynes who's out for the year. But it's like Jordan, Jordan Marshall is excellent. They do have some real receivers. We know Bryce Underwood has a huge upside and he will make some. Some great throws. We understand all this.

[Bill Landis]

But the offensive line's better off Michigan.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, the offensive line is better. Trivia question for this game. Or. Or just like a statement of fact. Ohio State has neither the leading passer nor leading receiver nor leading rusher in the this matchup. True or false.

[Bill Landis]

Does Kylie Manus have more passing yards? Insane.

[Doug Lesmerises]

He does. He's like four more passing yards. I'm just saying. Okay, so like, that is weird. Jade Maeva from USC leads the Big Ten in passing yards at 286.8 per game. 8th and Caliac Manus 270.5 per game. Julian saying 267.5 per game. Caliac Manus 17 touchdowns, 7 picks saying 25 touchdowns. 4 picks. So a difference there saying 80 completions. Caliac man is 62.3 completions. But like the point here is like it just like we're just trying to reinforce that, you know, records. I don't know.

[Bill Landis]

It's like they chuck it around.

[Doug Lesmerises]

They do around, man.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. And for everyone rolling their eyes like this is. This will be a long wind up on Rutgers offense for us both to pick them to score 10 points.

[Doug Lesmerises]

But, but then that will be a good job by Ohio State to limit Rikers to 10 points.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I, I suppose, I suppose it would be. I, I am just kind of excited is not the right word. Like eager or, or interested just to see a team try to put it in the air against Ohio State, see what happens.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Right.

[Bill Landis]

Like to your point about Jermaine Matthews and David Stigmas and being excited, like I'm excited to watch that because. Just doesn't happen a lot. They don't, they don't face a lot of past attempts because usually quarterbacks are getting sacked or checking it down or running for their life or something like that. So I, I do think that could be the one thing with Rutgers offense is they do get sacked quite a bit. I don't know if he's been sex many times, but Rutgers has given up 31 sacks this year, more than, more than three per game. So it feels like the last couple of weeks Ohio State has sort of like powered down Arvell Reese. I wonder if they might push the lever back up a little bit just to, just to, you know, just to get the, the muscle memory back to where it needs to be before the Michigan game.

[Doug Lesmerises]

See, it was at the Nagursky Trophy. Best defensive player, four finalists. Caleb Downs is one. Arvell Reese is not.

[Bill Landis]

Oh, I saw that. Downs was one. I'm surprised that Reese is not. Yeah, that's interesting.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, it's a Jordan Rodriguez guy from Texas Tech and I can't remember the other two.

[Bill Landis]

He'll probably.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Congratulations to Caleb Downs for being one of the finalists. Points per game. Ohio State's 11th in the country, scoring 37.5. Rutgers is 56th in the country, scoring 29.9. Defensively, Ohio State is first in the country, giving up 7.5 points per game, which again is just like ridiculous. Rutgers is 107th in the country, giving up 30 points per game. They just give up a lot of points. But again, just to like reinforce a.

[Bill Landis]

Lot of everything, they give up.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Poor Greg Shiano, Antoine Raymond. This is. Antoine Raymond has a thousand yards in 10 games. So he has. He's averaging exactly 100 yards per game, but that's because he carried it 41 times for 240 yards against Maryland two weeks ago. Rutgers is coming off a bye week. So, like, he hasn't been cranking out 100 yard games all season, but he took it to Mike Lockley's boys.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, Big win for Rutgers in the Wawa Bowl. The i95 Bowl.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. We used to try to get that. Sponsored on our old show.

[Bill Landis]

By the way, Ohio State of Michigan playing both ends of the Wawa bowl this week. Michigan's got Maryland.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Oh, yeah. I do think why, why don't they play Rutgers at Maryland last game of the year and make it like a. An end of the year rivalry?

[Bill Landis]

I don't know. It's a good question. Yeah, they should.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, they should. So. Yeah. So this is just. It is an interesting Ohio State offense, by the way, looking this stuff up. Antoine Raymond is second. The Big Ten in rushing yards per game. Emmett Johnson, Nebraska's first. You want to know where Bo Jackson ranks rushing yards per game?

[Bill Landis]

Per game?

[Doug Lesmerises]

Per game?

[Bill Landis]

7Th.

[Doug Lesmerises]

5Th. 80.6. I was kind of surprised. I was like, hey, look at that. It's like, it's like he's got like four. What's wrong with the Ohio State run game? And it's like, I don't know, he's.

[Bill Landis]

Fifth, fifth big 10th in the conference in rushing and he gets like 12 carries a game.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. So it's pretty Good. Brian from O Index Overall, as we said, Ohio State's number two overall. Rutgers is 68. Ohio State is seven on offense, two on defense. Rutgers is 18 on offense, 125 on defense. And this is. I mean, it is just like blow your mind. And the opposite of what Shiano has traditionally done when he came back, his first year back was 2020 at Rutgers. They were 63rd in defense, 110th in offense. Then they were 58th in defense, 117th in offense. Then they were 44th in defense and 122nd in offense. Then they were 43rd in defense and 78th in offense. And then now it's completely flipped. So, like, I don't. It's. It is. We were talking about this the other day, Bill. It's like, do we think Reggiano thinks this is fun and cool, or is it driving him crazy that somehow Rutgers, which has been sort of built in the Shiano era, it's his 17th season in two different Shano reigns there, has been built on a defensive identity and now they can't stop anybody and chuck it around like they're a Mike Leach team. Like, do you think he loves it or hates it?

[Bill Landis]

No, he hates it. There's no way he loves it. Yeah, he would. He would. If you said tomorrow you can. You can flip your identity and be the best top 25 defense and the worst offense in the country, he'd sign up for that. They are, like, legitimately the worst defense in the country. They are dead last in yards per play defense. They are dead last in yards per carry defense out of 136 teams. They're in yards per carry. They're last, and they are a full yard worse than the next in the next team.

[Doug Lesmerises]

What are they giving up in yards per carry? Like over six.

[Bill Landis]

What is it, six and a half? First first time since 2022 that a Power 4 team has allowed more than six yards per carry on the season.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Mama Sita. That is terrible.

[Bill Landis]

Giving up, I think, five 50 yard rushes this year.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Wow. Okay. That is legitimately really bad.

[Bill Landis]

They're better against the past, though. They're 125th in yards per attempt.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Congratulations.

[Bill Landis]

So that's pretty good. Yeah. Huh.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Last ranked win for Rutgers, 2009 versus number 23 USF. I don't think it's gonna come in this one. Of course, when we talk about Rutgers, Ryan Day did get the question this week about them blocking stuff. They like to block stuff. They're fourth in the nation of block punts with three in 17 years of Greg Shiano. They've blocked 76 total kicks, 46 punts, 17 field goals, 13 extra points. It's an average 76, 4.5 per year, 76 and 17 seasons. 4.5 blocked something per year. And then Ryan. It was funny. Ryan Day this week was trying to talk about Ohio State's block punt, the one that hit Kaden Curry the armpit. And he's like, oh, we had a look and we had guys coming on the other side that threw him off. And that's why the punter punted it four feet off the ground into Kaden Curry's gut. And it's like, okay, okay.

[Bill Landis]

They did have a pump block on.

[Doug Lesmerises]

And they didn't work with the punt.

[Bill Landis]

And they blocked the punt. So what do you want? That's called execution where I come from.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, I mean, you've done that, like, haven't you? My. My golf tenure is terrible, but every now and then it's like, you know, you do one of those. I've done those where, like, I hit A drive that goes like two feet off the ground, but it goes like 180.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Because it like, it's like a, you know, and it like skips a couple times like it's a rock skipping across a pond. And it's like that punter tried to skip a rock across a pond and he skipped it into Kaden Curry's armpit. Congratulations to Ohio State. Great special teams play. We're gonna make a pick on this eventually. In conclusion on Rutgers, Rutgers defense terrible. Is the offense good? Is like the offense actually good or is it they just kind of chuck it around and so they have some stats?

[Bill Landis]

I think it's like above average. Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

I don't think. I wouldn't say it's good.

[Doug Lesmerises]

And what do you think, Ethan Caliac Manish, you like that dude or what?

[Bill Landis]

I think he's, he's gotten better like every year. You want to give players credit when that happens. When he was in Minnesota he was awful. And when he went to Rutgers I was like, this is a bad idea for Rutgers, like trying to improve its passing attack. But he was. Last year he was like the best quarterback they had in like 10 years. But the bar was incredibly low. And now he's just like the best quarterback they've ever had. But again, the bar is not incredible. The bar is not incredibly high. But this is, this is like statistically, even if it isn't like merely above average. I was reading eleven warriors always is like a good like kind of like Q A with the beat writer from the opposing team and the guy from NJ.com that they talked to said like this is Rucker's best offense since 2007, which was like Mike Teal and Ray Rice and Taekwond Underwood that that offense. So I. This isn't as good as that, but it's. Yeah, if it's the best since that, that's not bad for Rutgers because we know what they've been offensively for much of their Big Ten tenure and that has been terrible on offense.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So yeah, as we said, they already have a thousand yard rusher. They're going to have a thousand yard receiver, they're going to have a 3,000 yard passer. That will be the only other time that's happened at Rutgers is 2007. So they are getting back to that.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

Time at participating McDonald's I want to get back to the Ohio State passing game because if we are anticipating that we don't see Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate, we do then anticipate, of course, Brandon Ennis remains a veteran in the sl. We anticipate Mylan Graham. We anticipate Bryson Rogers. We anticipate maybe more Quincy Porter than we got last week. Quincy Porter, Jersey native, can show Rutgers what's up. That's right. Ryan Day did say we kind of were talking about this like right after the game and just, you know, like, hey, like it's, it's receivers and the timing. And if Julian saying's not quite. Ryan Day did say that this week. He said that on Tuesday that there is some of that just not working with guys as much. And then we had, you know, you pointed out well Julian Saying, you know, worked with those guys when he was a true freshman last year and was not the starter. But do you believe that, that Ryan Day said it. Do you believe that perhaps this passing game because Julian saying and you did a film re watch that we can talk about here too, about Julian Saiyan's day. Do you think the passing game could just look more on point because maybe they're getting more reps in practice this week and they maybe will know what's up and Julian and we'll have better timing with these guys.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, I think, I think it will look better. It helps to be playing a bad defense, of course. But, but I think just this, the assumption that they've gotten all the reps together this week should make that look better. I thought that Julian saying kind of for the first time all year, like played a little sped up against ucla. Okay. And that is a byproduct of a few things. One, like the, the unfamiliarity with the receivers, I think is one. And even when those guys were open, I thought at times he was a little hesitant to throw them the ball, including on a play where he got sacked. Like Myelin Graham was sort of open and he didn't throw the ball. If it were, if it were Carnell Tate in that spot, I think he would have thrown it. But he didn't. And he took a sack. He had the ankle thing which, like, I don't know, like re watching it, it wasn't like. Well though, he can't put any weight on his ankle. He can't drive the ball. Like, I didn't see any of that. So I actually think that was probably not that much of a factor, but it's something to consider. The other thing is that like UCLA blitzed him a ton. Highest blitz rate he's faced all year. And.

[Doug Lesmerises]

It worked.

[Bill Landis]

Really. It was his worst game against the blitz. He, he remains one of the better quarterbacks in the country, just like statistically against the blitz. But this, this was not a good game. So he was blitzed 47.1% of the time according to PFF, which is the highest all season. And the only other times it's been above 40 were the opener against Texas was 45 and Grambling it was 40. But it didn't matter because he was 8 of 8 and they never got to him. But in this game against UCLA, UCLA, while blitzed, he was 9 of 15 for 59 yards. So that's like not a terrible completion percentage against the blitz. But he's, he's just been more efficient than that. He's. His completion percentage, like his overall percentage on the season while getting blisses is over 80. So. So 9 of 15 is a pretty decent drop. Drop for him. And then his percentage for the game was, was down a little bit to 74, I think. So I, I think. And I also didn't feel like Ohio State was doing a ton to like account for UCLA split, saying there were a lot of times where UCL was Sunday like 6 or 7 and Ohio State was still blocking with 5. And then you also didn't have CJ Donaldson, who is your best pass blocking running back available either. So there were, there were like a lot of things sort of coming together to create like not the best environment for passing efficiency. And then he still completed 74 of his passes. So it's not like he was terrible, but it was the most off that he's been. And I, he just to me is. Is a guy who, who when things have popped up throughout the season that he's seen for the first time, they don't really seem to affect them affect him the next time. So I'm, I'm like eager to see that. Right, Because I'm sure Rutgers with an extra week to prepare and nothing to lose, really is probably going to try to heat him up and, and play aggressively on the outside thinking that Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate aren't going to be there. And I think Ohio State can perform fine against that. But it will be a nice opportunity to see how Julian Saying adjusts to like not having his best stuff against UCLA and we'll see what he puts on the field against Rutgers. Like that's if you're looking for think a thing to make a game with a 30 point spread. Interesting. I think that's it.

[Doug Lesmerises]

And I do think again I, I don't think that automatically means if Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate in fact do not play that that means Ohio State just runs the ball 40 times. Because if you don't know what's going to happen or, or even if you feel like, you know what, we're just sitting these guys out to be safe, they're definitely going to be fine. For Michigan, it doesn't take much to re aggravate something or have something different happen. I just think like having Julian saying find a with your second team receivers is advantageous to what Ohio State wants to do. So while it might be a game where you could say I think we're getting 100 yards each from Isaiah west and Bo Jackson, but I, I don't think that I, that Julian Sand's going to be 12 of 16 just because the two best receivers might not play. I think they still have to throw just to reconfirm and double check for themselves that if they get in a situation and they got to have a game, can they throw the ball without their two best receivers? They have to work on that.

[Bill Landis]

They have to work on that. And you also, you want. Thank you. On Julian saying going into the Michigan game with some momentum.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Right.

[Bill Landis]

And some, and some confidence too. So, so I think that to me is more important than continuing to build your running backs confidence. They're both important but I would rather have Julian saying like, like feeling ready to rock and roll going up to Ann Arbor for the first time. So they'll run it because they, you have to do it some and yep, there will be opportunities here in this game. We just mentioned how bad Rutgers run defense is. The thing is like Isaiah west and Bo Jackson may each run for 100y9 carries each. So it could be that bad. But I, I, I, that will be interesting to monitor. Like how, like what, what is Ohio State's sort of like disposition? Do they want to run it a lot and just kind of get through it or, or are they of the mind too, that they need to kind of build that rapport with young receivers and also build some events over saying because my, my lean would definitely be the latter.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Like subscribe Tell a friend about the Bill and Doug Show. Again, if you haven't been joining us on our sub stack where we write about Ohio State, where we do a big Wednesday show, where we do a Sunday sound off where we take questions and comments from the game and respond to those, we would invite you to try it. Like it's kind of go time. Like there's this Rutgers game and then it's Michigan game and it's national signing day and a potential Big Ten championship game and then a playoff run and we just would love to have you with us. So maybe maybe get yourself a, a present for the holidays. Maybe give it to somebody. Present for the holidays is pretty reasonable. We feel like the content's worth it. Bill drove to Cleveland to report on something this week. Right now that's, that's, that's the extra effort there. Extra effort there. Bill and Doug osu.substack.com It is offensive line week. We did it. We did a show about the offensive line here on YouTube and the podcast feeds earlier Thursday. But we have multiple written pieces that are going to be popping up on the sub stack as we evaluate Ohio State's offensive line recruiting philosophy and in state and how that all ties together. But and then check out our [e-mail] r h o b a c k.com 20 off your first order. Check their game day collection especially. And it's like again, it's one of those things where gets, getting, it's getting late, so you got to get the Christmas shopping done right? Get your Christmas shopping done. I think you can satisfy your whole [e-mail] you can get mom, you can get dad, you can get aunt and uncle and cousin and grandpa and grandma and siblings and children. Check it out. Roback.com Go do it today because like I've had an idea for presents I want to buy and I keep thinking I got time. I got time. You're running out of time. So try to make time this week. Go to roback.com put in bad 20, bad 20. And then I, I, I'm not exactly sure I would maybe load up because I think the bad 20 is like if you order multiple things, you'll get 20 off the entire order. So if you're getting like four or five different things for people you're really starting to save some cash then. Bad 20 is the code. Before we do our picks, can I give you the thing that I spent my entire prep on, which is why I was like, I don't know what even strong does. Can you please talk about that? Because I spent all my prep on this. After Ohio State beat Rutgers In 2016, I wrote for cleveland.com that Ohio State will never lose to Rutgers ever. So I wanted to check this. Ohio State is 100 against Rutgers and. And thanks to Winspedia. You on Winspedia much that website wins? Yeah, I trust, like I double check some of their stuff. Because here's one thing. Ohio State got its 1000th win as a program against UCLA. We have not noted that here. It has been noted elsewhere, but I think like Ohio State didn't make a big deal about it because when you take away the 12 wins that were lost to NCAA sanctions in the 2010 season, they're only officially at 988. So they couldn't have a 1,000win parade because the NCAA, I don't know, would kick him in the shins or something. But Winspedia has him at 988. So it's like, oh, like what do I like? Are we double checking or do they have the right information? So it's like, okay, that's something to me. So congrats to Ohio State.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

A thousand wins. A lot of wins.

[Bill Landis]

A lot of wins.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Two programs with a thousand wins, Michigan and Ohio state. They are 100 against Rutgers. Here are the teams in Ohio State history that Ohio State has beaten at least five times and never lost to. Okay, okay. 100 versus Rutgers, 90 versus Maryland. They didn't play Maryland in the COVID year. And now that there's no longer divisions, they didn't play Rutgers or Maryland last year. So maybe Maryland will catch up. But it's 1009080 against Washington State, which I just find to be odd. I'm.

[Bill Landis]

That's pretty strange. Mostly bowl games, I guess.

[Doug Lesmerises]

I don't know. But even like, But I, I can't. I, I can't. Like, I don't know, maybe they were all in the 40s. Muskingum, 7 0, Ohu 7 0, Miami Ohio 6 0, Bowling Green 5 0. So these are all the Big Ten teams according to Winspedia. Big Ten teams that are at least 10 0. So the only team that Ohio State is 100 or better against is Rutgers. This is the program that Ohio State has beaten the most without ever losing. To them it's Rutgers. A conference phone now. Right. Big Ten teams who are at least 100 against an opponent. Minnesota versus North Dakota, 20. And oh, Penn State versus Lebanon Valley College, which is in the town next to where I grew up. I was gonna say Lebanon Valley College. They haven't played since 1935. Penn State is 20 and oh against them. Lebanon Valley College is now D3.

[Bill Landis]

They should strap it up. This might have a. Might have a chance this year.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, that's true. LVC is coming for you. Terry Smith. Look out. The first movie I ever went to when I was a kid was across the street movie theater across the street from Lebanon Valley College. I went and saw the Jungle Book. So, like, that's Lebanon Valley College.

[Bill Landis]

I think I covered. Is that the Centennial Conference basketball media day at LVC one time? Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. Nice.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

What about toys?

[Bill Landis]

Do they have brands kids have been wanting all year?

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yep.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

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[Bill Landis]

Do you mean they have all the brands I adore?

[Doug Lesmerises]

They have Nintendo, Nespresso, Apple and more.

[Bill Landis]

What a bad.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

A participating McDonald's. All right, USC, this is next in the Big Ten. Current Big Ten teams. USC is 17 oh versus Colorado.

[Bill Landis]

What is.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Isn't that weird? It's like that's a real team. Because when you hear the rest of this list, it's like all these schools that no longer exist or playing like Division 6130 Washington versus Puget Sound. Now the Tenos. Northwestern versus Evanston High School. Why is this in the record book? It's a high school team. What is this circumstance? In what? When was it ever okay for colleges to play high school teams? It's like, I want you to take that Evanston High School. It's the weirdest thing. And even if it happened, wouldn't you want to erase it?

[Bill Landis]

Yes.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Like, is that part of your official, like when you talk about. So Northwestern is now the losing his program ever because Indiana started winning. It used to be Indiana, but 10 of those Northwestern wins are against a high school that still counts. What are we doing? Do we count stuff? I'm like, oh, we played that. We played the fourth period gym class. Because what I, I don't know what they were doing back in the 1910. So anyway, Washington versus San Jose State, 100 again, that's a real one. I was like, that's kind of. So that's, that's like a real thing. 100 each for Michigan and Michigan State versus Eastern Michigan and then Ohio State versus Rutgers, 10 0. These Big Ten teams don't have, aren't, don't have a 100 against anybody. Their, their best record is like 70 against somebody. No 10 zeros for Oregon, UCLA, Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Maryland or Rutgers. So that's just kind of like 10 and 0 is not that common. Now I checked out some other national programs, some of the big time programs. You got 10 and O's against anybody. Georgia vs Mercer, 22 0. LSU vs Louisiana 22 0. Auburn vs Tennessee. Chattanooga 21 0. Texas A&M vs Southwestern 18 0. Texas A&M vs Sam Houston, 17 0. Alabama vs Tennessee Chattanooga 14 0. Auburn vs Mercer, 13 0. Auburn vs Louisiana Monroe 12 0. LSU vs Northwestern State 12 0. Texas A M vs Austin. I don't know what that is. 12 0. Tennessee vs Carson Newman, 12 0. Texas vs North Texas, 10 and 0. Texas A&M vs Louisiana Tech, 10 0. Among the schools with no tenos, Oklahoma, Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Notre Dame. This is the point. This is unusual.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

And I, I think and some of those games are like the teams are Division 2, they're Division 3, they're FCS, they never play those schools anymore. I think we have a chance for over the next 20 years for Ohio State, Rutgers to become the most lopsided, never beaten to school, head to head matchup in major college football.

[Bill Landis]

Do they play next? They don't play next year. They play in 28, I think.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Right.

[Bill Landis]

I think they accidentally place 28.

[Doug Lesmerises]

But so if they play six out of 10 years or whatever, it might take a while. Right? Yeah, but, but the idea that like I just, it's just weird because they're now they're conference foes who had no history prior to being conference foes. Right. So I will say Rutgers against some other Big Ten teams, they're 0 and 10 against Ohio State. They're owing seven against Nebraska. Oh, and six against Wisconsin. Oh and five against Iowa and oh and one against Oregon, UCLA and USC. So Rutgers is not the only Big Ten team that, that Ohio State's not the only Big Ten team Rutgers hasn't beaten. Maryland is.09 against Ohio State.02 versus Washington, 0 and 1 versus Oregon. So this is, like, really stands out for Maryland. Michigan was nice and took care of this right off the bat. I. Michigan in 2014, the first year that Maryland and Rutgers were in the Big Ten, Michigan lost to both of them. The first year, five lost to Rutgers, and Maryland just took care of it. So we couldn't be having this conversation. But, like, for instance, like, Penn State has a history with Rutgers. Penn State lost to Rutgers in 1988 and 1918. Penn State is 32 and 2 against Rutgers, but they have a loss there. I just, just don't. I can't picture in my head the circumstance in which Ohio State loses a football game to Rutgers.

[Bill Landis]

What if someone shows up the Rutgers and gives it the old Indiana treatment? Is that not possible?

[Doug Lesmerises]

Kurt Signetta gave Indiana the old Indiana treatment and lost by 38 to Ohio State last year. I don't know. Like, that's true.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. I. I certainly can't envision what it would look like unless Ohio State decided to play a bunch of high school kids, which. Which seems like they're not going to do. Yeah. So I don't. I don't know when it will ever flip. This is a huge spread, too, because it's not like in the new world of college football, they've gotten closer. So I guess there have been some. I think there have been some spreads in the 40s between these two games. If there might have even been one of the 50s. One year I remember, I think it was an Ohio State, Rutgers game where people were like, this is the biggest spread between conference opponents ever. Yeah, I think that's right. So I guess 30 and 30 one and a half's not so bad if that's the case. But yeah, I agree with your column. I actually had it up here as we were doing the show because I thought you might reference it.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

But I don't. Yeah, there's nothing.

[Doug Lesmerises]

What a bold. God, I just would fire from the hip. What a bold stance. Look at me just not being afraid to shovel dirt on Rutgers grave.

[Bill Landis]

That's right.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Get in line. Hey, I'll tell you what. Everybody else, they're saying, I think Rutgers could become one of the great programs in college football. Not Doug Lemurice. He's saying they'll never beat Ohio State. That guy's not.

[Bill Landis]

There wasn't a. There wasn't a Rutgers radio person we could get on this week to tell us that they think Rutgers can win.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yes. A person whose check is cut by Rutgers. What do you think will happen? I think Rutgers has a chance in this game. 31 and a half. Did you think that was interesting? The idea that Ohio State, Rutgers could become the most lopsided zero sided matchup ever.

[Bill Landis]

I'm a little worried how much time you spent looking all that up.

[Doug Lesmerises]

That's why I didn't know anything about current Rutgers roster. I was like, ian. What? Duff. What? Duff. What? I didn't know Duff. What? Because I was too busy trying to figure out how many times Auburn beat Mercer.

[Bill Landis]

This is strong and Duff. A pretty good like buddy cop tandem.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Oh, yeah. It sounds like. It sounds like the buddy cop show that Homer Simpson watches.

[Bill Landis]

Oh, right. Because a Duff. Yeah. Duff man. Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Strong enough. Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Or like it'd be like, like a beer and a cigarette. Strong. A strong cigarette and Duff beer.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Because they could be. Because it would be like. Yeah. The. The product placement would be through the roof show.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

That Homer Simpson watches on the Simpsons stuff, man. And. And strong. The cigarette guy.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. By the way, Lebanon Valley College, 6 and 4 having a good year. They got. They got her sign us this weekend.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Go Dutchman. The Dutchman. Did you know that?

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

The Dutchman's Pennsylvania Dutch? Yeah. My dad used to go to the basketball games there and like yell at the refs enough that people were like, what is wrong with this guy? I was like, it's my dad.

[Bill Landis]

Incredible.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. 31 and a half. The only time this game has been even moderately close was last time out in piscataway. It was 35, 16. And the last time Rutgers was in Columbus. Greg Shiano and Ryan Day were yelling at each other and pointing at each other.

[Bill Landis]

I'm surprised I wasn't asked this week. I guess there's too much injury stuff.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah. Because Jesse Mirko didn't understand American football rules and was like, hey, mate, I'm gonna run for a first down in a 40 point lead, mate. And Greg Shiana was like, I will murder you. And then Ryan Day said, don't you murder my punter. And so everyone got mad.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah. Yeah. Do you want. Do you want some trends before we make our picks?

[Doug Lesmerises]

Trend it.

[Bill Landis]

Trend, trend me up against the spread this year. Ohio State 81 1.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yep.

[Bill Landis]

Rutgers 5 and 5. Oh, Ohio State games are 4 and 6 to the under Rutgers.

[Doug Lesmerises]

So what does that mean? 4 and 6 to the under? It goes. It went under six times or went under four times?

[Bill Landis]

Six on one. Under six times.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

And Rutgers has gone over six times in 10 games. And I look this up, Ryan Day in the game before Ohio State plays Michigan. Oh, three and two against the spread. Okay. Covered. Covered in 21 when they hammered Michigan State. Covered in 23 when they hammered Minnesota and covered last year against Indiana. They did not cover in 2019 when they played a top 10 Penn State team the week before they played Michigan and they did not cover in 2022 when they went to Maryland and won 43. 30. Okay. In the game that they were 27 and a half point favorites. Those are the Dallin Hayden game. I think Dallin Hayden rushed for like 200 yards in that game.

[Doug Lesmerises]

As much as I think they need to try to work on the passing game, I think this is a little bit of a shut it down early game. Do you think so?

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay.

[Bill Landis]

I don't. Well, I think it's a, I think it's a get the starters out early game but when they've put the backup offense in there, they've kind of kept playing.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yes.

[Bill Landis]

I don't, I think yes. But not in a way that like would impact my score total a ton.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay. So I'm, I would want to go under and I would not want to give the points on this. So I'm going to say 38, 14 Ohio State. I think 31 and a half is a lot.

[Bill Landis]

Yeah.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Assuming Tate and Smith don't play. Assuming. My guess would be in a lot of this. We've had ad nauseam conversations over the years like when you take the starters out. I think the week before Michigan when you've already got a little bit of stuff going on, I think you go pedal down for a full half and I just, I just don't know how. What they will do in the second half. I usually like, I usually think they play the starters at least 3/4. I just would not be 100 shocked if Lincoln Keenholt opens the second half here. I don't, I don't know. So I just don't know that it's going to be a 50 point Ohio State game here. Right. I know we, we know what Oregon did to, to Rutgers but I just, I just, I don't think that's the circumstance here.

[Bill Landis]

Probably not. I guess the one thing that was on my mind it didn't like super impact my pick. But Rutgers plays Penn State next week and if it wins can get to a bowl game which is, I think it's pretty important for Rutgers and I'm sure they believe they can win that game at home against the beaten Up Penn State team in its last game with an interim coach. So might Greg Shiano like pull his guys if the game gets out of hand? And because I, I do think Rutgers starters, if they stay in the game, can and probably will score against Ohio State's backup defense with the game. Once the game I'm expecting gets to that point. So that could inflate the total. That could obviously help Rutgers. Rutgers cover. If you're like thinking about it in those circumstances. I didn't consider that a ton, but I do think it is one element of this game that could come into play.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay, all right, so I was at 38, 14. Where are you?

[Bill Landis]

42 14. And that is with the thought that Rutgers probably. I actually don't think Rutgers will score against Ohio State starting defense, but I think it might score twice against the backup defense.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Okay. I think they could score once against Ohio State's defense. That'll be a nice challenge for Ohio State. So we're like, we're right around it, but of course we're on opposite sides of the total a little bit. Both of us would take Rutgers with the points. So that's our picks for this edition. We will see you guys post game. We're both going to the game on Saturday, Bill. So we'll have a, a live post game show sometime late afternoon on Saturday we'll go down to the Ryan Day post game news conference. Certainly the talk will turn to Michigan very quickly. So, you know, just subscribe here if you want to catch it on YouTube so you don't miss anything. And then the rest of you on the podcast feed, it'll go up on the podcast feed as soon as possible after we're done on YouTube and then you can catch it Saturday night, Sunday morning, whatever. And we'll have our Sunday morning show for our substack subscribers that Bill and Doug over [e-mail].

[Bill Landis]

Yeah, and it'll be. I was hoping that Michigan was playing at noon, but they're not. So they're gonna be playing it. Well, they'll be playing while we're doing our Ohio State post game show more than likely. But that'll still probably be heavy Michigan and everything basically, once the game ends on Saturday will be heavy Michigan.

[Doug Lesmerises]

Yeah, that makes sense. All right, that'll wrap it up. Thanks to you guys as always for being here. We'll see you soon on Saturday. For now, he's Bill Andis. I'm Doug Lay. Maurice. And that was the Bill and Douglas Show.

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[Doug Lesmerises]

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[Bill Landis]

The Caddy, the wand, the preloaded Pad.

[Doug Lesmerises]

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