The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State vs. Rutgers Picks and Preview

Podcast: The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk (Blue Wire)
Episode Date: November 20, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis

Episode Overview

Doug and Bill dive deep into Ohio State's upcoming matchup with Rutgers, examining Ohio State's health, the state of both teams, whether Rutgers will ever beat Ohio State, notable individual and team statistical trends, and how injuries will shape strategy ahead of The Game (Michigan). With humor, historical context, and their trademark banter, the hosts provide fans a rich preview with big-picture insight and granular analysis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Game Context and Stakes

• Ohio State: 10-0, No. 1 in the country, defending national champs, 31.5-point favorite over Rutgers.
• Rutgers: 5-5, bowl eligibility hopes, statistically strong offense but atrocious defense.
• Historical Lopsidedness: Ohio State is 10-0 all time vs. Rutgers and has never scored fewer than 49 at home against them.
• Weather: Expected to be fine (01:36).
• Broadcast: Noon in Columbus, called by Gus and Joel.

2. Ohio State Injury Updates (Pass-Catchers and QB)

• Injured/Questionable Players: Jeremiah Smith (WR), Carnell Tate (WR), Julian Sayin (QB), CJ Donaldson (RB).
• Coach Speak: Ryan Day is transparent about Julian Sayin (practiced, fine) & CJ Donaldson (good to go), but evasive about Smith and Tate (04:10).
  • Quote (Doug, 05:53): “He was willing to divulge two positive injury updates... then he did not provide any specific information about Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate.”
• Reading Between the Lines: Both hosts think Smith & Tate won’t play vs. Rutgers but should be ready for Michigan.
  • Quote (Bill, 07:36): “I’m probably like 90% [sure] they’re gonna play against Michigan...No real reason to play them this week.”

3. Big Picture: Should Starters Rest for Michigan/Playoff?

• Strategy: Both agree Ohio State benefits most from full health for Michigan rather than the Big Ten Championship, given playoff structure.
  • Quote (Doug, 08:58): “If it’s a binary choice, win the Big Ten championship or beat Michigan, it’s a gazillion to zero on that vote, right?”
• Risk of Rust?: Some tension between total rest and keeping players sharp.

4. Rutgers’ Strengths: Really? Best Receivers on the Field?

• With Smith and Tate Out: Rutgers could have the top two receivers (KJ Duff & Ian Strong) on the field.
  • Stat (Doug, 03:05): Rutgers’ Duff and Strong are #2 and #4 in Big Ten receiving yards per game.
  • Quote (Bill, 02:34): “Yes, I think it’s possible that Rutgers will have the two best receivers on the field.”

5. Matchup Nerd-Out: OSU Defense vs. Rutgers Offense

• Rutgers Offense: Explosive production, strong QB (Athan Kaliakmanis), big receivers, dynamic RB (Antwan Raymond).
• Ohio State Defense: Top-ranked nationally, but hasn’t faced many potent offenses.
  • Quote (Bill, 15:13): “By EPA per play, this is the second best offense [Ohio State will] see this year—better than Michigan, actually, which is kind of weird because they throw the ball really well.”
• Interesting Note: Rutgers is “dead last” in yards allowed per carry nationally—over 6.5, “a full yard worse than the next team” (Bill, 22:19).

6. Historical Perspective: Why Rutgers Will Never Beat OSU

• Doug’s Deep Dive: Ohio State is 10-0 vs. Rutgers—the most wins without a loss for any OSU foe. This is a rare, possibly unprecedented dominance between major programs (36:09-45:09).
  • Quote (Doug, 43:14): “I just can’t picture in my head the circumstance in which Ohio State loses a football game to Rutgers.”
• National Comparisons: Most other "10-0" or better series involve non-conference or non-major foes, making OSU-Rutgers unique (40:00+).

7. X’s & O’s: How Will Ohio State Attack?

• Passing Game Focus: Despite the likely absence of Smith & Tate, Doug and Bill expect OSU to work on timing/chemistry with young receivers and QB Sayin, rather than simply running it 40 times.
  • Quote (Bill, 31:10): “That’s the thing to make a game with a 30-point spread interesting: how does Julian Sayin adjust...without his best stuff against UCLA?”
  • Quote (Doug, 32:05): “Having Julian Sayin find it with your second-team receivers is advantageous to what [OSU] wants to do...They have to work on that.”
• Key Stat: Rutgers last ranked win was in 2009. Their run defense is, statistically, abysmal (22:31).

8. Rutgers Offensive Strength: Legit or Mirage?

• Rutgers’ current offensive stats are their best since 2007 (Mike Teel/Ray Rice days), but Bill considers it merely “above average” rather than “good” (24:33).
• QB Kaliakmanis: Improved since Minnesota, still more dangerous than typical Rutgers QBs—likely their best in Big Ten play.

9. Game Predictions, Spread & Trends

• Historical Trends: Ohio State is 8-1-1 vs. spread this year, 4-6 under; Rutgers 5-5 vs. spread, 6-4 over. Day is 3-2 vs. spread in pre-Michigan games (47:01).
• Both Hosts Predict Rutgers Covers:
  • Doug’s pick: Ohio State 38, Rutgers 14 (Ohio State win, Rutgers covers) (48:41).
  • Bill’s pick: Ohio State 42, Rutgers 14 (similar logic, expects Rutgers to score vs. OSU backups) (50:23).
  • Neither sees this as a matchup where Rutgers’ breakthrough is likely.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Doug (43:14): “I just can't picture in my head the circumstance in which Ohio State loses a football game to Rutgers.”
• Bill (22:19): “[Rutgers is] dead last in yards per play defense. Dead last in yards per carry defense… they are full yard worse than the next team.”
• Doug (08:59): “If it's a binary choice, win the Big Ten championship or beat Michigan, it's a gazillion to zero on that vote, right?”
• Bill (15:13): “By EPA per play, this is the second best offense they're going to see this year... better than Michigan, actually.”
• Doug (31:10): “If you're looking for a thing to make a game with a 30 point spread interesting, I think that's it [seeing how Sayin adjusts to adversity].”
• Bill (07:36): “I'm probably like 90 percent [sure] they’re gonna play against Michigan.”
• Doug (38:41): “Northwestern vs. Evanston High School... In what, when was it ever okay for colleges to play high school teams?”
• Bill (44:21): “I'm a little worried how much time you spent looking all that up,” referencing Doug’s deep statistical research.
• Comic relief: The 'Duff and Strong' as a buddy cop show/Homer Simpson reference (45:23).

Important Timestamps

• Injury discussion & “competitive advantage” with Michigan coming: 04:10–08:19
• Would you rather be healthy for Michigan or Indy? 08:19–10:52
• Rutgers possibly fielding best WRs on the day: 02:34–03:05
• Rutgers offense vs. OSU defense (analytic deep dive): 15:13–18:41
• OSU-Rutgers historical lopsidedness & fun fact segment: 36:09–45:13
• Game predictions & rationale: 47:01–50:36

Overall Tone & Style

The episode is rich with fun rivalry banter, deep stats, and playful jabs—balanced by serious football analysis and fan-focused insight. Doug and Bill keep the conversation accessible but never dumb it down, mixing historical trivia with tactical preview.

Summary

• Expect a comfortable OSU win, but Rutgers' offense might create more intrigue than usual.
• Young OSU receivers (with stars likely out) offer a chance to test the Buckeye passing game and keep Sayin sharp ahead of Michigan.
• Rutgers' historically poor defense gives OSU a chance to build confidence but is not a real threat.
• No one can see Rutgers ever beating OSU, historically or in this weekend’s matchup.
• Both hosts pick Ohio State to win big but not cover the massive spread.

For detailed OSU, Michigan, and playoff analysis, and more fun banter, catch the post-game and follow Doug and Bill on Substack.