The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk

Episode: Oregon-USC, Nebraska-Penn State, Cincinnati-BYU, Pitt-Georgia Tech: National College Football Picks
Date: November 21, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises and Bill Landis
Podcast Network: Blue Wire

Episode Overview

Doug and Bill deliver their weekly national college football picks with a focus on key matchups around the country, playoff implications, and the wider impact on the Big Ten. Key games discussed include Oregon vs. USC, Nebraska vs. Penn State, Cincinnati vs. BYU, and Pitt vs. Georgia Tech, plus a look at Missouri-Oklahoma. The episode blends in-depth football analysis, a bit of banter, and serious consideration of coaching situations, playoff races, and young quarterback performances.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Substack and Betting Updates (01:07–03:08)

• Ohio State Substack: The hosts promote their written content, interactive game chats, and a new 14-day free trial for readers (details at Bill's X profile).
• Against the Spread Records: Bill's ATS record is 45–39 ("Feels great. I wish my actual bets were doing that well" – Bill, 03:08), while Doug sits at 38–46, humorously noting minor net losses and the challenge of betting consistency.
• The hosts emphasize they “put their money where [their] mouth is,” though actual betting returns often don't match their podcast picks.

Oregon vs. USC: The Big Ten Playoff Picture (05:02–13:00)

Big Ten Playoff Implications

• Oregon's Importance:
  “If I were the Big Ten, I think I would prefer to just sort of like, solidify my three spots… and have Oregon win this game.” – Bill (05:02)
• Doug believes there’s still a (narrow) path to four Big Ten teams but concedes: “I think Oregon at its best is a national title contender.” (05:44)
• USC’s Path: Even with a win, USC’s playoff route is convoluted, hindered by earlier losses and the Notre Dame “barrier.”

On Oregon’s Strengths

• Oregon touted as “the most efficient run game in the country and a quarterback who can clearly make plays.” (06:42, Doug)
• Bill isn’t convinced Oregon needs to be at full strength to handle USC, especially with the Ducks at home:
  “This game actually feels like pretty simple to me… USC stinks on the road, they can't stop the run, and Oregon runs the ball on everybody.” (07:38)

Defensive Matchup

• Oregon’s defense is “just so much better than USC's. Right? It’s not close, is it?” – Doug (08:58)
• Oregon leads in passing efficiency defense, but Bill notes they haven’t faced an offense like USC’s yet (09:14–09:59).

On USC & Lincoln Riley

• The hosts express doubts about USC’s offense on the road:
  “USC averages two and a half yards fewer per game on the road… and scores 20 fewer points on the road compared to home.” – Bill (11:15)
• Doug: “Are we back on Lincoln Riley? … That was 14 seconds on me believing in Lincoln Riley. That’s the most that I could muster.” (11:00–12:08)

Predictions

• Doug: Oregon 35, USC 23 (12:54)
• Bill: Oregon 31, USC 20 (12:54)
• Both picking Oregon to cover 9.5.

Michigan at Maryland: Coaching Security & Quarterback Development (13:35–25:27)

Maryland’s Coaching Situation

• Discussion around Mike Locksley’s job security despite back-to-back poor seasons.
• Bill: “Maryland to me sort of feels like a program that is, is not quite reaching its potential given just where it's located geographically in terms of recruiting.” (17:49)
• Doug speculates that Maryland is “banking on years three and four of Malik Washington,” their young quarterback (18:47–19:45).

Next Season’s Outlook

• Maryland faces a tougher schedule next year, facing teams like Virginia Tech and Penn State—Doug and Bill debate if sticking with Locksley is driven by hope in player development or recruiting retention (19:42–20:14).

Michigan Preview

• Michigan will likely rest star RB Jordan Marshall ahead of Ohio State, with Bryson Kudzel (former walk-on) likely taking the lead against Maryland’s struggling rush D (21:49–22:06).
• Both hosts praise the upside of the freshman QB matchup: “Bryce Underwood and Malik Washington are so good for the Big Ten.” – Doug (22:21)

Betting Lines & Picks

• Both see Michigan (-13.5) as too heavy a favorite.
  • “Thirteen and a half on the road here feels like a gigantic number to me… I have Michigan 24–19.” – Doug (23:46)
  • “I have Michigan 24–14.” – Bill (25:27)

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech: Veteran vs. Freshman QB Showdown (26:40–31:13)

Defensive Struggles and Offensive Opportunities

• Georgia Tech’s defense is “not good,” giving up over 1,000 yards in two games.
• Doug: “I have a question for you. Should Haynes King win the Heisman?” (28:41)
• Bill lauds King’s production and candidacy: “I like Haynes King as a Heisman guy much more than I like Diego Pavia, for instance.” (28:48)
• Haynes King: 14 rushing and 10 passing TDs with just two picks; “he could babysit [Pitt QB] Mason Heinsel…” – Doug (29:04–30:31)
• Both expect a shootout.

Predictions

• Doug: Georgia Tech 38, Pitt 30
• Bill: Pitt 35, Georgia Tech 31

Memorable Quote:
“We got a babysitting situation. Babysitting alert.” – Doug on the QB age gap (30:31)

Nebraska at Penn State: Motivation, Coaching, and Quarterback Situations (31:17–37:47)

Preseason Expectations vs. Reality

• Doug: “This game is the game before the season that I think we thought would be what the USC-Oregon game actually is.” (31:46)
• Both express skepticism about Penn State's large (8.5 point) favorite status.

Coaching Changes and Locker Room Dynamics

• Franklin’s exit to Virginia Tech has shifted staff and locker room focus.
• “There’s moving boxes in the building at Penn State this week.” – Doug (35:14)
• Matt Rhule’s return to his alma mater stirs emotions, but he is focused on “trying to get the best out of Nebraska.” (35:14–36:58)
• Bill flips his pick live: “Can I just change my pick? Nebraska’s gonna win… 24–20.” (37:36)

Cincinnati vs. BYU: Clash of Explosive Offenses, Defensive Gaps (39:49–43:05)

Offensive Firepower

• Both teams are top-20 offenses; Cincinnati is among the most explosive nationally.
• Doug: “Brendan Sorsby … up there with some of the better quarterbacks in the country. Cincinnati at home at night is very good record wise.” (41:28)

BYU’s Defensive Edge

• Bill: “BYU’s defense is closer to the caliber of the defenses that have given Cincinnati a lot of trouble this year. So I'm not going to pick them.” (41:44)
• Doug highlights BYU’s turnover-prone freshman QB and expects a close matchup.

Picks

• Doug: Cincinnati 30, BYU 27
• Bill: BYU 31, Cincinnati 28

Missouri at Oklahoma: SEC Survival and Injury Watch (46:31–50:48)

Critical Injury News

• Major question mark is Missouri QB Bo Prabula’s health (dislocated ankle), now “questionable.”
• Ahmad Hardy (Missouri RB) exploded for 300 rushing yards last week.

The Stakes

• Playoff implications for multiple teams depending on this game’s result.
• Bill: “Great matchup of Ahmad Hardy … against Oklahoma’s rushing defense collectively maybe the best rushing defense in the country.” (47:44)
• Fading teams/coaches rumored for job changes (e.g., Eli Drinkwitz) becomes a strategy.

Predictions

• Doug: Missouri 26, Oklahoma 24 (upset pick)
• Bill: Oklahoma 21, Missouri 14

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Oregon, the Playoff, and USC:
  “If I were the Big Ten, I think I would prefer to just sort of like, solidify my three spots closer to the top of the rankings and have Oregon win this game.” – Bill (05:02)

• On Lincoln Riley:
  “That was 14 seconds on me believing in Lincoln Riley. That’s the most that I could muster.” – Doug (12:08)

• On Job Security:
  “Maryland to me sort of feels like a program that is, is not quite reaching its potential…” – Bill (17:49)

• On Freshman QBs:
  “I love what’s happening here. Bryce Underwood and Malik Washington are so good for the Big Ten.” – Doug (22:21)

• On Haynes King’s Heisman Worthiness:
  “Should Haynes King win the Heisman?” – Doug (28:41)

• QB Age Difference:
  “He could babysit Mason Heintschel. Legitimately.” – Doug (30:31)

• On Coaching Changes at Penn State:
  “There’s moving boxes in the building at Penn State this week.” – Doug (35:14)

• Bill's spontaneous change of pick:
  “Nebraska's gonna win. Can I change my pick? I'm already on the Nebraska plus eight and a half. Just flip my score. 24-20 Nebraska.” – Bill (37:36)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Intro & Substack: 01:07–03:08
• Oregon-USC, Playoff Talk: 05:02–13:00
• Michigan-Maryland & Coaching Carousel: 13:35–25:27
• Pitt-Georgia Tech: 26:40–31:13
• Nebraska-Penn State: 31:17–37:47
• Cincinnati-BYU: 39:49–43:05
• Missouri-Oklahoma: 46:31–50:48

Summary Table: Picks Head-to-Head

| Game | Doug's Pick | Bill's Pick | |-----------------|---------------|---------------| | Oregon-USC | Oregon 35-23 | Oregon 31-20 | | Michigan-Maryland | Michigan 24-19 | Michigan 24-14 | | Pitt-Georgia Tech | Ga Tech 38-30 | Pitt 35-31 | | Nebraska-Penn St | Neb 23-20 | Neb 24-20 | | Cincinnati-BYU | Cincy 30-27 | BYU 31-28 | | Missouri-Oklahoma| Mizzou 26-24 | OU 21-14 |

Tone & Style

The hosts maintain an authoritative yet approachable analysis style, peppering numbers and insider knowledge with dry wit and college football fandom. Banter (often self-deprecating) about their own betting luck, reverence for certain coaches, and the eternal Big Ten-vs-SEC rivalry runs throughout.

For full, fan-first insight with a focus on the Buckeyes and the national college football landscape—and a few memorable side conversations about job security and youthful quarterbacks—this episode delivers as both a preview and an analysis for diehards and casuals alike.