← The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk
Oregon-USC, Nebraska-Penn State, Cincinnati-BYU, Pitt-Georgia Tech: National College Football Picks
00:48:37
College football features two matchups of ranked teams this weekend in No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 15 USC and No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 22 Missouri.
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- [00:00]
A
Our state has changed a lot in the last 140 years. We know because Multicare has been here guided by a single making our communities healthier. That comes from making courageous decisions, partnering with local communities to grow programs and services, and expanding healthcare access to those who need it most. Together, we're building a healthier future. Learn more@ multicare.org.
- [00:31]
B
Tis the season of gifting and holes to deck and the who's and Whoville were in love with new tech. Where can we find Sonos and Samsung and Nintendo? They shouted. Would they find it in one place? This they questioned and doubted when suddenly a who yelled, walmart's the place to start. And D2 added headphones, TVs and games to their cars. With Walmart, their shopping was done in a flurry. They cried out, who knew? And ordered their gifts in a hurry. Shop the latest tech gifts in the Walmart app.
- [01:08]
A
Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. Doug Lee, Maurice and Bill Landis National Picks we're going to start with Oregon, usc. We have a couple other Big Ten games. We're going to wrap it up with Missouri, Oklahoma, but Landis just so the good people who join us here for the national picks every Friday know we also have an Ohio State sub stack where we write about Ohio State. We have great game chats, thousands and thousands of comments in our Ohio State game chat every week. You and I are in there. The great subscribers are in there chatting it up, hanging out, having a great time. People really seem to like it. We have a special thing that we've been doing this week. We call it Offensive Line Week. We've wrote three separate stories about it. We had a a subscriber only podcast this week show like we do every Wednesday that was dedicated entirely to the Ohio State recruiting class. And you made a little 14 day free trial for the people. We'll put the the link I think in the show notes if people want it. But also explain to them what they might get with the what's with the free trial that you just made?
- [02:04]
C
Yeah, it's also pinned to the top of my Twitter slash x profile at Bill25 if you want to find it there. Or I'll just tell it to you too. It's Bill and Doug osu.substack.com thegame special and basically what we wanted to do is like give people an opportunity to come and check up, check and see what we're about through the Michigan game. So if you sign up with that link you can get a 14 day free trial and that offer will end December 5th, which is the Friday before the Big Ten championship game. But yeah, if you've been thinking about seeing what we do over there, but you're a little hesitant to shell out the money for it, which we certainly understand, you can come check us out for a couple of weeks before the. What we hope is a Big Ten championship game and the playoff starts. So, yeah, that link will be in the description as Ducks up, but it's also pinned on my Twitter profile if you want to go find it there.
- [02:55]
A
All right, great job. Usc, Oregon, the first game we're going to do. Oh, let me do this, by the way, because you're just, you're speaking of great jobs. 45 and 39 against the spread for the season. How's that feel for you, Philly? Billy?
- [03:09]
C
It feels great. I wish my actual bets were doing that well, because they are not. They were. They were and lately they're not. But.
- [03:15]
A
Well, what's the deal? Do you, do you bet what you say here? Do you typically also bet, then you bet additionally and the additional things are what's destroying you or what's the. What's the problem?
- [03:25]
C
Yeah, that is typically what happens because we usually do a six pack of games. Right. And then, but then I'll, I'll, you know, I'll wager on an additional. I know these are, these are baby bets. These are two, two, three dollar bets, but always around additional five to six. And usually those games are just goes way off the tracks.
- [03:41]
A
Yeah. I have three separate apps that I use, have various accounts and I, I'll just like track everything and see what I do. Whatever. It's like, oh, so I'll go through. And it's like I maybe made 13 different two and three dollar bets this week. And this account went up a little bit and this account went down a little bit. Then I always keep my total and it's like I'll go through it all and be like, oh, I lost 38 cents this week. Like, that's like, I had a great week. I won A$19. But that's not the point. The point is that you get to put your money where your mouth is. And if you, if you have a biggest mouth, as I do talking about college football, sometimes you got to try to back it up. So typically my mouth loses 38 cents. So I don't know what to tell you. My record is 38 and 46 against the spread. Last week on this show, we each made six picks. You went three and three, I went two and Four. We both won our, on our Ohio State pick, which we do on our Thursday show. And so overall for the week, you were four and three. I was three and four. I wish, I wish it was smarter. USC at Oregon is where we're going to start. It's 3:30 on CBS. Oregon is favored by nine and a half. I just was on a radio show and, and was asked like, what's better for the Big Ten here? What is the, the best outcome for the Big Ten when it comes to the playoff race?
- [05:02]
C
I, I just don't think the Big Ten is going to get four teams in. So I would say it's Oregon winning, like Oregon winning and I think looking dominant and continuing to look like what I think is one of the best teams in the country. Because the thing with usc, even if it were to win, it's going to come up against that Notre Dame barrier, right? Like, it's not impossible for USC to get in if it were to win this game and finish with 10 wins. But a lot would still need to happen in its favor for, for that to be the case. And then also there's like the lingering Michigan thing, right? Well, like I said, I have to have that against Michigan, but I, I just really don't see a pathway for the Big Ten getting four sort of no matter what happens. So if I were the Big Ten, I think I would prefer to just sort of like, solidify my three spots closer to the top of the rankings and have Oregon win this game.
- [05:45]
A
I, I do think there's, there's a path for four. You know, this Oklahoma, Missouri game, we're going to talk about like Oklahoma, like Oklahoma loses, that's kind of a spot vanishing. For instance, if Bama loses to Auburn next week because Vanderbilt loses to Tennessee next week, you know, there's room for some weird stuff to happen. But I agree with you because I do think, you know, I think if USC wins and beats Oregon and then goes 10 and two, I think USC's in. And then what's up with Oregon, right? What's up with 10 and 2? Oregon and like, what's Oregon's best win? Is it this road win it Iowa, which you can look and say that's a pretty good win, but also it was close and it was down to the wire. And I think if you're the Big Ten, you want Oregon in. Because I think Oregon at its best is a national title contender.
- [06:34]
C
Yes.
- [06:34]
A
Do you agree with that?
- [06:35]
C
Yeah, I do, but. And I don't think that's true of, of usc. Or Michigan where Michigan to get in.
- [06:42]
A
Agreed. So that maximum Oregon with a, with a pretty darn good defense and the most efficient run game in the country and a quarterback who can clearly make plays. And if they're, if their pass catchers get healthy, there's a, there's a lot there with Oregon. And just because Kurt Signetti came into your house and punched in the face doesn't mean you're not a good team. And then they just have not had a lot of other opportunities to prove how good they might be. But I do think there's experience there. I think the coaching staff is good. I think there is a depth of talent. And so I think that's what I think the Big Ten wants that Oregon team in. And is that the Oregon team that you think is going to show up in Austin Stadium against USC on Saturday? Do you think we get full throated? Let's go Oregon.
- [07:34]
C
Well, I need. Well, what's going on at receiver with Oregon? I don't, I don't know.
- [07:38]
A
Right.
- [07:39]
C
Like I. Health wise, probably not so. But I also don't think it matters necessarily in this game. Yep. This game actually feels like pretty simple to me. I was, I was reading the game picks of the great John Canzano, Portland Oregon based fantastic sports columnist who knows Oregon and knows west coast football as well, if not better than anybody. And he was just sort of like, USC stinks on the road, they can't stop the run and Oregon runs the ball on everybody. And that's sort of my like, sort of. That's sort of how I feel about this game too. So. So will we get the full Oregon? I'm not entirely sure that's part of what makes Oregon interesting. I don't know that we'll see that the rest of the way as they continue to get healthy. But then think about what the team could look like once it shows back up on our radars for its first playoff game, which, which could be a home game in Austin Stadium in, in the middle of December. And that to me is a very dangerous team. I don't think that's the mode they're in right now, but I don't again, I don't think they need to be in it to beat USC this week or to be Washington next week. I just like, if this game was in la, maybe I'd feel a little differently. But it's not because USC is a very different team when it plays at home. But this game being in Oregon with stakes for the Ducks and like sort of the matchups Just like, I kind of think Oregon's going to win this one. Not blowout fashion, but. But rather comfortably.
- [08:58]
A
Oregon most efficient running attack in the country. Big Ten rushing attacks. Oregon 1, USC 2. But Oregon. Oregon's defense is just so much better than USC's. Right? It's. It's not close, is it?
- [09:14]
C
Yeah, no, I don't think it's close to the one like so Oregon's number one in passing efficiency defense, which obviously matters when you're playing a USC passing attack like this one. I think they're number four in EPA per drop back defensively. They've also really not played good passing offenses for much of the year. They played Indiana, which has a very good passing offense, and Indiana beat them and, and threw the ball okay in that game. Didn't throw it all over him, but threw it well enough to win. And then probably the second best passing offense Oregon has played is Rutgers, which is an entirely shut down. But we like. This is different, obviously. Like USC with Jada Maeve and Makai Lemon is. Is not the. Is not nearly comparable to Rutgers. It's significantly better. So like that. That could be a thing that maybe we perhaps just don't know or have a great feel for yet with Oregon's defense is like, how good is the past defense really? But I still think it's pretty good. I think the secondary is good. I think the front gets after you. So. And I just like. It's not like they're good against the past, but then they're not good against the run. Like they're balanced. So I just don't think they're gonna have much trouble here slowing down USC enough. I don't think he shut down USC's offense, but I think you can keep them from whatever, putting four touchdowns on the board. And if you do that, you probably win.
- [10:30]
A
USC's offense is good. Jade Maeve is good, but he still makes a couple goofy plays a game. Makai Lemon is excellent. He leads the Big Ten and receiving yards. He's. He's gonna be first team all Big Ten, right?
- [10:43]
C
Yeah. He'll be a Balindikov finalist. Ballots are due this weekend. He'll be a finalist. I'd be shocked if he wasn't a finalist.
- [10:50]
A
Yeah, so, like they're. They're gonna do some stuff, but I just don't. I think I like Dan landing in a game like this better than I like Lincoln Riley.
- [11:00]
C
Have we.
- [11:00]
A
Are we back on Lincoln Riley? Are we all. Hey, hey, hey. Lincoln Riley. Heisman quarterbacks. Remember Oklahoma. He was Good. Are we there? Like, hey, Lincoln Riley, we're believing are people all in back in on Lincoln Riley?
- [11:16]
C
I don't know. I, I'm, I'm not usc. Just make sure I have this right. USC averages two and a half yards fewer per game on the road compared to home and scores 20 fewer points on the road compared to home. Like, I don't disagree with you. They are a good offense, but they're, they're just like drastically different. And like they beat Nebraska on the road in a game where Dylan Raiola broke his leg and before that happened, they were losing. So I just, I'm not like back in a Lincoln Riley experience. I do, I do think, like there are times I think I've said this where this offense has looked like like one of the best in the country. They're just, they're just like far too Jekyll and Hyde home and road for me to think they're going to go to Oregon and suddenly get it together on the road.
- [12:03]
A
You know, I love Lincoln Riley. Just great respect.
- [12:05]
C
You do. You're a huge, you're a huge Lincoln Riley fan. You've said that many times.
- [12:09]
A
And they're not going to win this game. Well, they're not that good in there. They like a, kind of a weird game at Purdue. Illinois is pretty good. They, they almost won that game. They didn't. They lost last second field goal. I think Notre Dame's really good. They lost that game. And then as you said, like, Nebraska's pretty competitive, but you know, on what, like I picked him to lose that game because usually most of the, the games at that tier in the Big Ten this season, the home teams won. And I thought that was like a real show me opportunity for Nebraska and so to go into that place and win. But also as you said, Dylan Rail got hurt and if he's healthy, they probably do lose that game. So. Okay, that was 14 seconds on me believing in Lincoln Raleigh. That's the most that I could muster. It's a nine and a half point spread. I have Oregon 35, USC 23.
- [12:55]
C
I have Oregon 31, USC 20. So Oregon covering the nine and a half.
- [13:00]
A
All right, so we got. Covering the nine and a half both. Both ways around.
- [13:05]
B
Tis the season of gifting and holes to deck and the who's in Whoville were in love with new tech. Where can we find Sonos and Samsung and Nintendo? Nintendo they shouted. Would they find it in one place? This they questioned and doubted when suddenly a who yelled walmart's the place to start and D2 added headphones, TVs and games to their carts. With Walmart, their shopping was done in a flurry. They cried out, who knew? And ordered their gifts in a hurry. Shop the latest tech gifts in the Walmart app.
- [13:36]
A
Extra value meals are back. That means 10 tender juicy McNuggets and medium fries and a drink are just $8 only at McDonald's for a lim. Prices and participation may vary. Prices may be higher in Hawaii, Alaska and California. And for delivery. All right, this is a game that is going to be opposite that Split it on your on your view there. Ohio State's early. So when that game's over, what are you going to watch in the in the late afternoon window? You're going to watch usc, Oregon, and you're going to watch Michigan at Maryland at 4:00 on the Big Ten Network. Our guy, Jake Butt. Oh my God. People love our Jake Butt show. They love Jake Butt. They loved him, Bill. They loved him more than they they. The thing that I don't like about that is that my favorite thing about this show is when people love us. And I think they did not love us the most on that show. They love Jake Butt.
- [14:29]
C
Yeah, but you knew that was going to happen. You can't be surprised by that.
- [14:32]
A
But then, then I don't want to have those people on. No.
- [14:36]
C
It's a difficult decision. Do you want intelligent talk or do you want to trick people into liking you?
- [14:44]
A
Definitely the latter. Don't give away my secrets. Maryland is getting 13 and a half points at home in this one. Maryland started four. No, they lost six straight. They were one and eight in the Big Ten last year with that win over USC. My God, speaking of Lincoln Riley looking at one in eight this year, probably maybe two and seven. I think they had Michigan State next week. Does it matter? They, they said this week this is the first game that Maryland is playing since the AD said we're not firing Mike Locksley. So Mike Locksley did have like a pretty good run of, of beating the teams he's supposed to beat of making bowl games at Maryland. Last year was not good. This year is not good. I am anticipating a minor turtle bump off our coaches not getting fired.
- [15:34]
C
I think there could be one. We were sitting in the press box next to each other at the Ohio State UCLA game and you had the scores up on your screen and I pointed to the Rutgers Maryland scorer and said he's going to get fired. And then like 24 hours later, 24 hour later, the ad said, we're not going to fire him. It's interesting some of the spots these programs find themselves in. Right. Because like, the, the coaching carousel got going, like, sort of fast and furious and then, and then it's like, kind of slowed down since then. I'm wondering exactly how chaotic it's going to be. And there are some teams, Maryland, Wisconsin, who are kind of rallying around beleaguered coaches because I don't, I don't really know why, if I'm being perfectly honest. Like, the Luke Fickle thing, I get a little more than the Mike Locksley thing.
- [16:16]
A
I mean, his, like, some history of winning. Mike Loxley has had, by Maryland's definition, success at Maryland. Yes, sure.
- [16:24]
C
But it, but does it not feel like it's slipping away from him?
- [16:26]
A
It does, it does. I mean, I, I think if Luke Fickle had made the playoff at Cincinnati, if Michael Oxley hadn't made multiple bowl games in a row at Maryland, and they did, they did the last couple years, they'd be out. But you're leaning back on, like, well, there's, there's some substance here in the past. Are, are two bad years for Michael Oxley enough to be like, that's it, or do you, you get a thought of the third bad year?
- [16:49]
C
Well, my question to the athletic director would be, are you leaning on the previous success of Mike Loxley or are you leaning on Malik Washington, who came.
- [16:58]
A
Who was recruited by Mike Locksley and maybe would leave if Mike Locksley got fired? Right.
- [17:02]
C
Yes. Yeah.
- [17:05]
A
And the final defensive end recruit they have coming in, who's coming in?
- [17:08]
C
Zion Ely. Yeah.
- [17:10]
A
Who would maybe decommit or get out of his letter of intent if Michael Oxley was fired. So I said, if Maryland, Wisconsin were in the sec, both those guys would be fired. You agree with that?
- [17:26]
C
Yes.
- [17:27]
A
Yeah. So then that is that good or bad? And this goes back to our 25 year winter show, which we keep talking about for some reason that we did on our previous show. You can go find it on YouTube. Is that good or bad? The SEC would not tolerate. We will not tolerate such incompetence. But Maryland and Wisconsin, like, yeah, we're good. Try again. What's better?
- [17:49]
C
I, I, I don't, I don't know. I would almost put them in separate categories because I, I don't, I'm not super optimistic about the Luke Fickle thing at Wisconsin suddenly starting to work. But, but I, I kind of get wanting to give it more time, mostly just to see, like, hey, can we like, get out of this incredibly bad stretch of Quarterback luck that we found ourselves in. Like maybe have our starter healthy for a season and see what that might look like first before we decide to fire Luke Fickle. I'm in a different spot with Loxley. Like I, I would almost say like maybe keep fickle and fire Loxley because I just. Loxley has been good to your point. But Maryland to me sort of feels like a program that is, is not quite reaching its potential given just sort of where it's located geographically in terms of recruiting. And I wonder if somebody can do better there. So I would not necessarily let like the Malik Washington, Zion Ely factor keep me from finding a new coach if I thought there was a better option.
- [18:47]
A
I do wonder if their best chance to win though is. Is years three and four of Malik Washington. Right. Which is quite a thing. It's like quite a strategy by head coach. It's like what I'm going to do is I'm going to get a pretty good recruited quarterback and I'm going to play him as a freshman. I'm going to be like, but you're going through the bumps of Malik Washington. No one is shocked that you're going through some bumps with Malik Washington, but you hope you come out the other side and say like, holy moly. By the time this guy's a junior or a senior and has 30 starts under his belt, this is the best quarterback play that Maryland's ever seen. And so I don't think it's unreasonable to, to try to bank on that because what else are you doing, right? If you, if you fire Michael Oxley now, then you're going in the portal and you're trying to find, I mean, you know, if you're Maryland, you're going to get the 14th best portal quarterback right now. So like what? As opposed to like, well, I don't know, like we might have something here. So you can wind up.
- [19:43]
C
Because their schedule's tougher next year, you.
- [19:45]
A
Can wind up getting held prisoner by that, right? You, you can't be like, well, Michael Ox has had four bad years, but we really want to see what Malik Washington's like as a senior. Right? That. I'm not saying that, but I think to see what it looks like next year. Their schedule is tougher next year.
- [20:00]
C
You're saying, yeah, they play, they play the revitalized Virginia Tech under James Franklin in the non conference, which is, oh yeah, Big Ten games at home against Illinois and Penn State on the road against Nebraska, Ohio State and usc.
- [20:15]
A
They played James Franklin next year. That's former Maryland head coach in waiting James Franklin to you?
- [20:19]
C
No. Yeah.
- [20:20]
A
Oh, that's it.
- [20:21]
C
I wonder. There were discussions about James Franklin sort of not taking the Virginia Tech job. I think as quickly as Virginia Tech would have liked with the idea that he was like waiting out some other things and the obvious one there is Florida State. But I wonder if any part of that was Maryland.
- [20:40]
A
Look at you throw that log on the fire. By the way, James Franklin at Penn State played Old Dominion and the Old Dominion JV every year in his non conference schedule and the the Villanova B squad. He opens with South Carolina next year and also plays Maryland in the non conference. What's the latest you can back out of a non conference game?
- [21:02]
C
South Carolina is going to come become South Carolina Upstate real quick.
- [21:06]
A
Yeah, yeah. Maryland, Baltimore county. Like they have a football team. I don't know what we're doing here. Okay. Hey, they're playing Michigan though. And it's really important because then the week after this game, I don't know if people realize this, Michigan plays Ohio State. Jordan Marshall. Justice Haynes is out for the regular season, at least for Michigan. The great back Jordan Marshall, who's also been a great back, four straight 100 yard games hurt his shoulder against Northwestern last week. Seems maybe up in the air. Seems to me like if Ohio State's like why would Ohio State play Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith this week? Why would Michigan play George Marshall this week? And then they have the former walk on at running back who seems like the probable answer there. I'm just kind of assuming that he's not going to play. What do you think?
- [21:50]
C
Yeah, I would assume he's not going to play and I think Michigan is probably pretty comfortable taking its chances trying to run the ball with whoever at running back against a Maryland defense that has allowed 848 rush yards in its last three games. Oh yeah.
- [22:06]
A
Bryson Kudzel, former walk on is probably the guy who's going to get the call there. Andrew Marsh went nuts last week 12 for 189 receiving against Northwestern. True freshman receiver, awesome. Bryce Underwood, like some great plays last week against Northwestern in a game that Michigan won on a field goal and last play of the game and some if he picks in that game. Again, not unexpected for a true freshman quarterback. How about this? What a true freshman quarterback showdown this is for the Big Ten. This is quite like this is like you got to take your shot like just like to be stumbling through with like oh, this guy is a fifth year former walk on who's waited his turn and he puts an absolute, like we have no ceiling with him at quarterback. As opposed to, like, I, I love what's happening here. Bryce Underwood and Malik Washington are so good for the Big Ten. I didn't even like what, let's get fired up for this freshman quarterback matchup. But you can still see like Bryce Underwood is a fascinating guy to watch because you can see it all, the good and the bad, and it's usually out there on display at the same, the same game it is.
- [23:04]
C
And I'm, I don't really think that Maryland's going to shut down Michigan running the ball, even though Michigan won't have Haynes and likely won't have Marshall. But I kind of hope Maryland's defense does have success because I'm just curious what a Michigan game where it has to throw first might look like.
- [23:20]
A
Oh, interesting.
- [23:21]
C
Not to say, not to say that Bryce Underwood can't handle it and Andrew Marsh has been very good. But, and like Maryland's defense, at least past defense wise has been better against than it has been against the run. Like there have been games, although not so much lately, where it's gotten after passers pretty well. So it's like a, whatever kind of medium level test I think for, for Michigan's passing offense if it does have to throw the ball more than it would like to in this game. But I, I wouldn't mind seeing what that looked like for young Bryce Underwood.
- [23:46]
A
I do feel like certainly I, you know, I know some Michigan fans and, and they feel like they're in survival mode right now a little bit from a health standpoint, just trying to get to the Ohio State game with some semblance of their roster. Ohio State fans, I think feel that way in a very similar way. Thirteen and a half on the road here feels like a gigantic number to me. I think this is like my best bet of the week because it's just, I think, you know, Maryland had that game against Washington where they kind of kicked Washington's butt in the first half at home and then Washington came back and won that game. But, but like again, the little bit of a turtle bump. Michigan maybe is, is, is interested in trying to get healthy and get out of there. So I think if Michigan is up early, I could see them shutting it down and trying to get out of there and putting some backups in the game. But I actually think it might be just like a little bit, not necessarily of a fight where Michigan's thinking it's going to lose the game, but I just think it's going to be close and I have Michigan 2419.
- [24:47]
C
Couple things. Michigan, this again not a betting show but these things I think should be taken into account. Michigan 3 and 7 against the spread this year so not very good. Michigan during this four game winning streak against Ohio State is 2 and 2 against the spread. The week before playing Ohio State, one of those, one of the wins was like last year, they just turned it on and hammered Northwestern. The week before they played Ohio state they won 56. But one of the games where they didn't cover was a close game at Maryland. I think there were 17 and a half point favorites in the game and I believe won by a touchdown. I don't think they sweat this one as much but I will also be taking Maryland with those points. I have Michigan 2414.
- [25:27]
A
Oh so we're five point. Okay, so 2419, 2414, 13 and a half is a lot.
- [25:37]
B
Tis the season of gifting and holes to deck and the who's in Whoville were in love with New Tech. Where can we find Sonos and Samsung and Nintendo? They shouted. Would they find it in one place? This they questioned and doubted when suddenly a who yelled Walmart's the place to start. And Dichu added headphones, TVs and games to their carts. With Walmart their shopping was done in a flurry. They cried out who knew? And ordered their gifts in a hurry. Shop the latest Tech gifts in the Walmart app.
- [26:07]
A
What do you think makes the perfect snack? Hmm, it's gotta be when I'm really craving it and it's convenient. Could you be more specific? When it's cray venient. Okay.
- [26:16]
B
Like a freshly baked cookie made with.
- [26:17]
A
Real butter available right down the street.
- [26:19]
B
At a.m. p.m. Or a savory breakfast.
- [26:21]
A
Sandwich I can grab in just a.
- [26:22]
B
Second at a.m. pM.
- [26:23]
A
I'm seeing a pattern here. Well yeah, we're talking about what I crave, which is anything from am pm.
- [26:28]
B
What more could you want? Stop by AMPM where the snacks and drinks are perfectly craveable and convenient. That's cravenience. AM PM Too much good stuff.
- [26:41]
A
Pit at Georgia Tech 7pm on ESPN. Georgia Tech at home only a 2 1/2 point favorite. You are very concerned about a Georgia Tech defense that in the last two weeks gave up 538 yards and 48 points to NC State and gave up 537 yards and 34 points to Boston College, the worst team in the ACC. And what's Mason Heinthe he the pit quarterback gonna do to that?
- [27:12]
C
Yeah, I I think there's an opportunity for a bounce back here for, for Pitt's offense. Heinzel got. What's the word for it? Just like overwhelmed against Notre Dame.
- [27:23]
A
Right.
- [27:23]
C
Like, like clearly freshman quarterback we're talking about. Yeah. And who's played well this year, but also I think, you know, had not played tremendous defenses before Pitt played Notre Dame. And then suddenly the guys on the other side are faster, the windows close a little quicker and you start turning the ball over and you get hit more and the young quarterback can get rattled. And I think that's what happened in that game. I actually didn't think Pitts defense played all that bad against Notre Dame. They just didn't have a shot to score really against Notre Dame's defense. But great pick.
- [27:51]
A
Rashin Biles. Ridiculous. Pick six.
- [27:53]
C
Yeah, yeah, sure. But I, I think as long as there's no sort of lingering ghosts or whatever from that game for Mason Heintschel that the Pitts office could probably bounce back here. Although I get there's. There's some question about Des Reed's availability. Is that right? I think, I think he's like on the report, injury report and like probable maybe. But okay. If they have him like I think they're gonna score the total 61 and a half. So the people who make the lines think both teams are going to score in this game.
- [28:23]
A
Yeah.
- [28:24]
C
I don't know, like one and a half.
- [28:25]
A
Okay.
- [28:25]
C
61 and a half. Yeah.
- [28:27]
A
Okay.
- [28:27]
C
Georgia Tech's defense has been slightly better at home than it has been on the road where it was the last two games that you mentioned. But it's not like it's been significantly better or like even good. They've been at home. So yeah, this feels like a high scoring game to me.
- [28:41]
A
I have a question for you. Should Haynes King win the Heisman?
- [28:48]
C
I think he's in the mix. Yeah. It'll depend, right. Like if, if Georgia Tech gets itself to the ACC title game. And certainly if Georgia Tech were to be Georgia. I think he is, he is squarely in the conversation. Like I, I like Haynes King as a Heisman guy much more than I like Diego Pavia, for instance.
- [29:04]
A
Correct. These last two weeks that we're talking about where the Georgia Tech defense has rolled over and played dead. Haynes King, total yardage, running pass 5, 11 and 424. He is willing Georgia Tech to victory. He. He I think has 14 rushing touchdowns. I think he has 10 passing touchdowns and two picks on the season. And so like I like that. I. And again, this is one of those Haynes King is a sixth year guy. This is one of those like guess who gets to New York sometimes. Old quarterbacks. Yep. It's a sixth year guy versus a first year guy. Haynes King could babysit Mason HEITZEL Legitimately. Like 17 years old to 11 years old. That's a babysitting situation. So I like Georgia Tech for that reason and I think I would like the over like quite a bit. 61 and a half feels like not enough for a Georgia Tech defense. That hasn't stopped anybody. I think Pitt, you know, off that Notre Dame loss is probably going to come in with a little juice. This is the ACC stuff. They're both in the mix for the ACC championship game here. But I, but two and a half, I just, I'm going to believe in like maybe a game into the fourth quarter, but if someone has their ball in the hands and the ball in their hands in the fourth quarter to go win the game, I'll take the old guy. So I'm going to take Georgia Tech. 38, 30.
- [30:31]
C
Haynes King is 24. Mason Heintel is 18. Okay, six, six year age difference.
- [30:38]
A
We got a babysitting situation. Babysitting alert.
- [30:42]
C
I, I have felt looking at this bat these last three games for pit, not, not believing that Pitt was going to find itself in the ACC title game, but that it was going to have a role to play in someone else's postseason fate. And clearly that's not Notre Dame. It very well could be Miami next week, but I'm gonna pick it to be here. I think, I think Pitt's defense gets after Haynes King a little bit and I have PIT winning 35, 31.
- [31:13]
A
Let's watch this game. You want to watch this game?
- [31:16]
C
I do, very much so, yeah.
- [31:17]
A
Yeah. Let's watch football. Opposite this game on NBC. It's Nebraska at Penn State, 7pm Penn State at home. Favored by 8 1/2. Penn State is 4 and 6, 1 and 6 in the Big Ten. Got its first Big Ten win against Michigan State last week. Nebraska 7 and 3, 4 and 3 in the Big Ten. This game is the game before the season that I think we thought would be what the USC Oregon game actually is.
- [31:46]
C
Yeah.
- [31:47]
A
Because I, I think if you would have like what before the season? What do you think this game is? It's like, is it 9 and 1, Penn State hosting 8 and 2 Nebraska with playoff implications for both teams, which is exactly what Oregon, USC is. And instead James Franklin's fired, Drew Aller is out, Dylan Raiola is out, and it's a Little. It's kind of weird that we're at this point, but I also find it weird that Penn State is this much of a favorite at home when Nebraska is coming off an open week and had extra time to help TJ Lateef, their young backup quarterback who has actually done a pretty darn good job since Dylan Rayola get hurt got hurt. They gave him an extra week to like game planned around. Around his strengths. And you know, Matt Rule was talking this week that he feels like Nebraska's past defense is pretty good and their run defense is bad. And Nick Singleton. Nick Singleton a little bit, but primarily catronal will run it right up your nose if you have a bad run defense. So that's certainly in play here. But I, I don't know that I think that like Penn State is, is fixed just because it beat Michigan State. And actually right now if you're taking a backup quarterback, I might take TJ Lateef over Ethan Gruckmeyer. So I'm a little surprised where this number is.
- [33:07]
C
As am I, I think. And I've seen this be pointed out primarily as people are having conversations like about the, the SEC and the Big Ten and their respective qualities that, that Penn State remains like a top 25 sort of like power rated advanced stat kind of team because of I'm assuming preseason prior still being baked in at least a little bit, but also the talent on the roster. So I'm sure that can. That contributes to this. But that feels like a gigantic number to me for the state of these two teams. And if any of that is based on Penn State like getting back on the horse last week and beating Michigan State. I don't think you understand how bad Michigan State is if you believe that's the case because they're, they're quite, they're quite not like whatever great win for Penn State, they can still get to a bowl game if they win these next two games against. Is it Nebraska and Rutgers, right?
- [33:59]
A
Yeah.
- [34:00]
C
Two. Two. Two absolutely winnable games for Penn State. And, and, but I also like, I, I have no feel for what level of motivation, if any that inspires in Penn State. I think Terry Smith would love to get Penn State to a bowl game, but I kind of think Penn State would like sort of like administration wise would kind of just rather get the season over with and move on with whoever the next head coach is going to be. And are the players who were drive away from playing for a national title last year like really all that motivated by getting the BOW eligibility? I, I'm a Little skeptical of that. So I kind of want to pick Nebraska to win outright, but I'll just sort of take the points, I think and, and leave that.
- [34:40]
A
I'll pick Nebraska to win out. Right. I'll pick Nebraska 2320.
- [34:43]
C
Okay, I have Penn State 2420. But absolutely Nebraska could win. And because the other thing like. And you tell me if you agree with this. I didn't look anything up. Just sort of anecdotal. Having watched Gymnol's defense play for a lot of years, like running quarterback against Jim Knowles defense feels like he has some trouble sometimes and Latif and Latif can run. So yeah, Nebraska can definitely win.
- [35:06]
A
As Kaitron Alice for Penn State. Like Emma Johnson from Nebraska is the best back in this game.
- [35:11]
C
Yes, yeah, I would agree with that.
- [35:15]
A
And, and so like talking about like the coach stuff. So James Franklin got introduced as a Virginia head, Virginia Tech head coach this week. Obviously everybody knows that, but there's already like Penn State people on who were still on the staff, who were James Franklin's people who have now vanished and are clearly going to work for him at Virginia Tech now that he officially has a job. So like that's happening in the building. There's moving boxes in the building at Penn State this week. And then this whole Matt Rule thing is like Matt Rule played at Penn State. Everybody knows that. Terry Smith also played at Penn State. Terry Smith, the interim head coach was, was on Matt Rule staff at Temple. And I was like, oh man, like, because Matt Rule as the Nebraska coach is not played Penn State. And I was like, man, what are the emotions going to be for Matt Rule? Then I was like, oh wait, let me double check. When he was at Temple, he beat Penn State in Philly, in Lincoln Financial Field to open the 2015 season, James Franklin's second year. And in 2014 and 2016 he took Temple to Beaver Stadium and lost to Penn State. But in 2016 when Penn State won the Big Ten, Temple played a seven point game in Beaver Stadium. So like whatever that, you know, he was talking this week that, you know, he doesn't think there'll be that many emotions but like there are people that were important to him. He was walking at Penn State, grew up in State College and like people who were around 10 years ago, for instance, when he was doing having those games against Penn State, grandparents, aunts, uncles, those kind of people, some of them are gone now. So he remembers how that was, how important that was to them back then. But I didn't know how to play that angle, I was like, I've been there. Because even though I was like, well, he beat him in Philly, but has he ever coached in Beaver Stadium? It's like, yeah, he's done it twice. It's like, okay, so then I think Matt Rule could just go in and try to get the best out of Nebraska. And they had a bye week to plan stuff and I think they're gonna win.
- [36:58]
C
Terry Smith yesterday tweeted a picture of a book by Joe Paterno called what It Means to Be a Nittany lion. In a way that felt very intentional with a another former Joe Paterno player coming into Beaver Stadium. And I think people talking about that former Joe Paterno player more than the former Joe Paterno player who's currently coaching Penn State. So like, I don't know if that means Terry Smith's gonna have an edge or if he's like all up in his own head about that rule coming into the game. So look, can I just change my pick? Nebraska's gonna win. Can I change my pick? I'm already on the Nebraska plus eight and a half. Just flip my score. 2420 in Nebraska.
- [37:37]
A
Okay, welcome, welcome. Now also, I'm trying to catch up to you, but we're already on the same side on the, on the spread, so it's okay. And nobody cares about straight up records. Welcome.
- [37:48]
C
Yeah, thank you.
- [37:50]
A
BYU at Cincinnati, 8pm on Fox. Big noon's gonna be there. Cincinnati at home is getting two and a half points. Two good offenses. Brian from O Index Cincinnati, the number 15 offense in the country. The BYU the number 19 offense in the country. One good defense, one bad defense. BYU 17th in defense. Cincinnati 78th in defense. Evan Pryor, who's like the, the co running back with Tommy Walker has been out the last couple games. Sounds like he's going to be back. That seems like a big deal for Cincinnati. I think they're getting a quarterback, not quarterback, they're getting a receiver back as well. Yards per play, some measure of explosiveness. Cincinnati's tied for sixth in the country. Georgia Tech, usc, Oregon, Vanderbilt, like those are the top four and those are recognized, I think as explosive offenses. Arkansas fifth. Notre Dame and Cincinnati tied for sixth. Brendan Sorsby, 20 big time throws this year by PFF. That's tied for sixth among power conference quarterbacks. He had two rough picks against Arizona last week. He threw a pick pick on the first play of the game on just like an out that the, the dropping defender kind of dropped back in and jumped up in the air and tipped it to himself. Then they had one where he bad decision on a deep shot later in the game threw into double coverage and under threw it and got picked. But he has not thrown. I think he has four picks on the whole year. So Cincinnati can be explosive offensively. Brendan Sorsby has been that tally Walker while Evan Pryor was out last week, ripped off two gigantic runs and then they just kind of like gave that game away against Arizona because they had some goofy play. BYU's defense is definitely better, but if you get explosive Cincinnati pass and run and Sorsby can limit the mistakes. I mean absolutely. Cincinnati has a shot to win this year and if they win it, they throw a gigantic wrench into the Big 12 championship game race.
- [39:44]
C
They do. Still, still alive but needing help. Also, Texas Tech and BYU can clinch this week with a specific series of events which we know thanks to the Big 12 very generously putting out a press release this week with the tiebreakers. I wish every conference would do that. Like if this, these things happen then this is who will play in the conference title game. Texas Tech is off, I think, but can clinch with like a BYU win and then like two other things happening. They can both get to the Big 12 title game and next week won't matter. Cincinnati's offense, yes, explosive, like except for when they play good defense.
- [40:21]
A
But I guess the question how good is the BYU defense? Do you think it's really good? Yeah.
- [40:26]
C
It's a top five defense in the Big 12 and the other two top five defenses in the Big 12 that Cincinnati has faced, it's done nothing against Arizona number two, Utah number three and Sourcey was bad in both those games. So I don't think BYU's defense is as good as Utah or Arizona, but I still think it's good. They've just like they've beat up like they played Kansas which is 12th total defense or we are for play defense in the Big 12. Iowa State's 13th, Baylor's 14th, Oklahoma State's 16th. Right. They just, they played the bottom of the barrel in the Big 12 defensively and now they are finishing their their season with a couple of very good defensive teams. And I think that's gonna matter some. There are, there are things that can point you in Cincinnati's direction. Like one Evan Pryor coming back is great if Brendan Swords he plays well. A good Brendan Sourceby is, is up there with some of the better quarterbacks in the country. Cincinnati at home at night is very good record wise since 2006 are 39 and 15 in home making, which is not bad.
- [41:27]
A
Good stat.
- [41:28]
C
So I, I could see a Cincinnati win, but I, I don't know that their defense is good enough to stop BYU's rushing attack. And I think BYU's defense is closer to the caliber of the defenses that have given Cincinnati a lot of trouble this year. So I'm not going to pick them.
- [41:44]
A
To win three of 12 on third down last week against Arizona. Like Source B didn't throw for a ton. I'm still not sure how good BYU is. I, I don't know why I'm, I'm pulled back from that. They certainly got, I thought they got outplayed in the Utah game and Utah made some dumb decisions and they won that game. They kind of got steamrolled by Texas Tech and that was like, kind of like a big game for them. They played a couple other close games. They're also playing a true freshman quarterback, Bear Bachmeyer who has played really well. But again it's like you're, you're taking this showdown he's thrown. He has like more. I think he has 10 turnover worthy plays this season and, and Stories has like four. Yeah, like which QB are you rolling with in this game? This, actually this is I think moderately similar to Haynes K versus Mason Heintschel. Like the true freshman quarterbacks have played very well but Haynes, King and Brendan Sorsby are very high on the list of strap a team to a quarterback and see if this guy can try to win this thing by himself. And then both those quarterbacks are home. And so I picked Georgia Tech to win. I'm going to pick Cincinnati to win Cincinnati 3027.
- [43:05]
C
Two more things I want to mention. Scott Satterfield at Louisville and Cincinnati 4 and 8 against ranked teams.
- [43:13]
A
Congratulations.
- [43:13]
C
Yeah, no, I mean not bad. Better than I thought he would be. Honestly. Kalani satake at BYU 10 and 14 against ranked teams but he's 04 against ranked teams on the road since joining the Big 12. So looking for his first or I guess not ranked but just like whatever big games, I'm picking BYU 31 28. So that's a cover as well. Customers and a half, right? Yeah, yeah.
- [43:40]
A
Two and a half. Yeah. Two good like two and a half point games. I was going through it, I, I wrote it down but now see if I can find it that it. It is a weird schedule this week because when you look at the top 10 in the playoff rankings a bunch of them are off and then a bunch of other of them are playing like 30 point games and so it can get like it's it's a pretty non competitive week high in the playoff rankings other than USC Oregon. But these pit Georgia Tech this pit Georgia Tech game in this I don't have it. Of course this pit Georgia Tech game and this Cincinnati BYU game are really vital.
- [44:24]
B
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A
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B
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A
A home pro, you just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app download today. But you know, while you're looking at okay, I do have it. Top 10 Top 10 in the college Football Playoff rankings, Ohio State is favored by 31 and a half. Indiana's offensive Texas A&M is favored by 54 and a half, Georgia's favored by 43 and a half, Texas Tech is off, Ole Miss is off, Oregon plays USC, Oklahoma plays Missouri, Notre Dame's favored by 35 and a half and Bama's favored by so much over Eastern Illinois that I couldn't find a line.
- [45:46]
C
It's because it's an FCS game. It'll be out.
- [45:48]
A
Yeah.
- [45:49]
C
Yeah. Tomorrow.
- [45:50]
A
So that's like five of the top 10 in the college Football Playoff rankings are going to are favored by 30 or more and three of them are off and the other two are playing ranked opponents. So like that's what this week is. Isn't it weird? I mean, I guess it's. But also it's weird. It's planned.
- [46:08]
C
Well, yes, it's. It is weird. But also shout out to everyone who's not in the SEC for aligning their schedule with the SEC's annual week of playing a bunch of patsies.
- [46:18]
A
Yeah, but like India, I mean, I do think it's weird. Like it's a two by schedule.
- [46:24]
C
But it is weird to not be playing this season. I do think everyone should be playing in November. I don't think there should be buys in November.
- [46:32]
A
Like you could have probably used that a couple weeks ago. Rest your guys up. And now it's like Indiana can get loaded up for Purdue. It's like, okay, I don't, I don't know. I don't know why Texas Tech, Ole Miss and, and Indiana are all off this week. Okay, so we're split on that one BYU pick and one Cincinnati pick and the last game that we will pick is an SEC game. This is back at noon. This is Missouri at Oklahoma, noon on abc. Oklahoma at home favored six and a half. Bo Peula, the Missouri quarterback who's been hurt I think for the last three games, went from doubtful to possible. No. What was a word? Doubtful to questionable on Thursday night on the injury report. He dislocated his ankle on October 25th. Missouri was 6 and 1 with a three point loss to Alabama with him. He got hurt in the third quarter. The loss to Vanderbilt in a close game. Then they lost and then they lost to Texas A and M and they beat Mississippi State last week. So him being back would be a huge deal. Ahmed Hardy for Missouri, who's one of the best backs in the country, 25 carries for 300 yards last week. My God, I was impressed when the Rutgers guy ran for 240 last week, 300 yards rushing. If Bo Peela plays, I think Missouri could win.
- [47:44]
C
I think Missouri could win. Great matchup of Ahmad Hardy, basically, like as an individual against Oklahoma's rushing defense collectively maybe the best rushing defense in the country if it's certainly the best rushing defense in the sec. I'm just sort of in a mode and this, this influenced my pit pick as well because Brent Key's name at Georgia Tech has come up for some other jobs I'm in. Like fade. Every coach whose name is being thrown around for jobs mode and that would include Eli Drinkwitz at Missouri.
- [48:13]
A
Oh, how about, what about fade? Every team that just got out gained by Alabama by 200 yards but won anyway and is flying high even though they maybe shouldn't be.
- [48:27]
C
Oh, I'm very much in favor of that too. Oklahoma's offense is not good, but I don't, I don't. Its defense is so good that, that sometimes and a lot of times this year it hasn't mattered. But yeah, another game where I could absolutely see that the underdog winning Missouri. I'm not, I'm not picking him the win, but I think they could win.
- [48:46]
A
Just shout out to the SEC teams being saved by the north by the way. Bo Peola, former Penn State backup, John Mateer, the Oklahoma quarterback, former Washington State starter. And where would the SEC be without Penn State's backups and Washington State's players? So congratulations to the SEC for just scooping up the best of the North. I'm just going to guess that Prabula plays like that. He, he wants to get back involved in a, in a big time game like this. This is a playoff spot. Oklahoma wins out, they're in. If they lose this, they're out. And like there's, there's enough teams. This is big for Vandy, this is big for Miami, this is big for Alabama potentially because like they, if two loss Alabama, even with a head to head lost, Oklahoma is probably going to get in ahead of three loss Oklahoma. And if we, we've outlined various scenarios we did on our Tuesday night playoff show where if Texas Tech gets upset in the, in the Big 12 title game and all of a sudden they're a bid stealer there, like it could get dicey for a team like Alabama. This is big potentially depending what happens in the USC Oregon game. So anybody in the playoff race is rooting pretty hard for Missouri here, right?
- [49:52]
C
Yeah, I think so. Yeah.
- [49:54]
A
And is our Brent Venables and the fellas up to the task riding high office, season defining and season changing win. Are they sure they're not going to fall on their face the next week, Week?
- [50:08]
C
I'm not sure but I'm, I'm gonna, I'm gonna pick them to find a way. I think, I think if, if Bo Prabula doesn't play, Missouri might get shut out. But I'll assume that he does play and I'll pick Oklahoma to win 21:14.
- [50:24]
A
Another true freshman quarterback, Matt Zoller is from Pennsylvania because they actually had a quarterback competition at the beginning of the year with Sam Horn Jr. And Bo Prabula. Horn got hurt in the opener. So it's been Prabula. So Zolers is there third string guy but he's been starting the last two weeks. Another true freshman quarterback situation. I think Prabula plays, I think Missouri wins. Let's bring some chaos in. Missouri 26, Oklahoma 24.
- [50:48]
C
This is good. I think we split on three games.
- [50:50]
A
Yeah, that's good. It's bad for me because then you'll probably win them and then I'll fall even farther behind. Thanks you guys for being here every Friday. When we make these national picks, go find our friends@roback.com get a holiday gift. Get a holiday gift for yourself. Game day collection. Hoodies, quarter zips, polos r h O-B-A-K.com bad 20 put that code in, you get 20 off your first order. We'll have a post game show for Ohio State sometime late afternoon, early evening after Ohio State plays Rutgers on Saturday. And then it's gigantic dive into Ohio State Michigan week we do around the shoe where we talk with different Ohio State beatriders. Every Monday we'll have our playoff discussion. They're still doing. They're not. They're still in the playoff thing on Tuesday night even though it's Thanksgiving week. Right. They're not taking office. Committee members have to drive to their in laws on Tuesday night. That's too bad.
- [51:38]
C
No, they're, they'll, they'll be at the the nice hotel in Grapevine, Texas giving us a new batch of rankings.
- [51:44]
A
Yeah, I'm sure it'll be, I don't know, during a timeout in the Wichita State New Mexico State basketball game on ESPN Quattro. Is that when the committee rankings come out? Maybe. Okay, so we appreciate you guys letting us hang with you and talk a little about college football. For now he's Bill Landis on Douglas Maurice. Those were the national picks on the Bill and Doug show.
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B
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What about toys? Do they have brands kids have been wanting all year?
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B
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A
Will make them all cheer. Do you mean they have all the brands I adore?
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