Oregon vs. Indiana Showdown, plus Michigan-USC, Oklahoma-Texas and more: College Football Picks

Summary

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The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk

Episode: Oregon vs. Indiana Showdown, plus Michigan-USC, Oklahoma-Texas and more: College Football Picks
Release Date: October 10, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises (A) and Bill Landis (B)

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Episode Overview

Doug and Bill deliver another fast-paced, passionately argued national picks episode, focusing on the weekend’s marquee college football matchups. They break down high-profile games including Oregon vs. Indiana, Michigan vs. USC, and Oklahoma vs. Texas, while also giving attention to under-the-radar matchups in the Group of Five and the Big Ten. Known for insightful analysis, wry humor, and their “fans-first, anti-Southern-bias” stance, the hosts debate game implications, trends, and storylines, making the show both entertaining and informative for Buckeye and national college football fans.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Picking National Games, Not a Gambling Show

Timestamp: 00:00 – 01:35

• Doug admits struggle with last week’s picks:
  “Landis, I sucked last week. 2 and 6 against the spread... this isn't a gambling show. But if you want to use any of the advice here, use Bill's, not mine.” (00:03, Doug)
• Bill reassures Doug the unpredictable nature of college football leads to swings in picks performance.

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2. Friday Night Group of Five Clash: South Florida @ North Texas

Timestamp: 01:40 – 07:10

• Game Context: Potential American Athletic Conference title and G5 playoff implications.
• Line Movement Noted: North Texas now a 1.5-point favorite after previously being the underdog.
• Stat-heavy breakdown:
  • South Florida is the more athletic and battle-tested team. Byron Brown has emerged as a dynamic QB.
  • North Texas undefeated but with weaker SOS (strength of schedule), two OT wins raise questions.
• Football math fun:
  • Doug proposes, tongue-in-cheek, that transitive wins could make North Texas “better than Texas.”
  • “If North Texas beat South Florida, South Florida has beaten Florida, who has beaten Texas, so then North Texas would be better than Texas.” (02:19, Doug)
• Picks:
  • Bill: North Texas wins 42-38. “High scoring, 42, 38. Fun quarterback matchup...” (06:07, Bill)
  • Doug: South Florida wins 38-30.

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3. Big Ten Sidelines & Funny Asides: Philly Sports & Temple Daydreaming

Timestamp: 03:11 – 04:14

• Aside about Philadelphia sports misery and Temple’s rare chance for city pride.
• Fun ribbing: “The city needs Temple to win, let me tell you. It is not a fun time to be a Philadelphia sportsman.” (03:11, Bill)

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4. Noon Saturday: Alabama @ Missouri

Timestamp: 07:15 – 11:28

• Missouri is undefeated but “fake good”? Doug expresses skepticism.
• Key statistical matchups:
  • Ahmad Hardy (Missouri RB) has forced the most missed tackles in Power 4.
  • Missouri’s third-down offense vs. Bama’s poor 3rd-down defense.
• Game Theory:
  • Doug: “I think Bama is fake great. I think Missouri, with that run game... can just, like, convert some third downs, keep the ball and win this thing.” (08:36)
• Picks:
  • Doug: Missouri wins, 30-27.
  • Bill: Alabama wins, 38-24.

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5. Deep Dive: Oregon vs. Indiana – Top 10 Big Ten Showdown

Timestamp: 11:28 – 27:31

• Playoff and Conference Stakes: Top 10 matchup, huge for both team’s postseason ambitions.
• Quarterback Spotlight:
  • Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore have remarkable efficiency.
  • NFL Draft interest in both QBs.
• Atmosphere Challenge:
  • Road worry for Indiana: “How much of a struggle it was for Indiana to handle the noise in Ohio Stadium last year... now they're going to [Oregon’s] Autzen, which... is significantly louder.” (15:28, Bill)
• Indiana’s Growth:
  • “They are monumentally more prepared to handle a tough road environment this season than last season.” (17:09, Doug)
  • Explosive duo at WR (Elijah Surratt & Omar Cooper Jr.) and backfield (Roman Hemby & Kalon Black).
• Skill vs. Trenches:
  • Hosts agree Indiana may have skill talent edge, but Oregon is decisively better on the lines.
  • “I think Oregon is significantly better in the trenches than Indiana.” (21:34, Bill)
• Dante Moore’s Heisman buzz:
  • Doug analyzes how Moore’s deeper passing (Avg. 8.6 yds/attempt) gives Oregon a dimension previous QBs lacked.
• Picks:
  • Bill: Oregon covers, 31-20.
  • Doug: Oregon narrowly escapes, 34-31. “I think Indiana can make it a game. I think they can make it tough.” (25:38, Doug)

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6. Red River Rivalry: Oklahoma vs. Texas

Timestamp: 28:49 – 32:03

• QB Uncertainty and The Chipotle Scoop:
  • Amusement about rumors of Oklahoma QB John Mateer confirming he’ll play to a Chipotle employee.
  • Bill is skeptical Mateer is healthy enough: “If he does play... what are you going to go put them out there and run triple option?” (31:09, Bill)
• Picks:
  • Bill: Texas, 20-17.
  • Doug: Texas, 23-20.

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7. Big Ten Bubble: Nebraska at Maryland

Timestamp: 32:03 – 36:49

• Nebraska’s tests: First road game; offensive line is a concern.
• Maryland’s changing identity: Noted defensive improvement, offensive regression.
• Picks:
  • Bill: Nebraska, 24-21.
  • Doug: Nebraska, 28-17.
• Memorable stat:
  • Bill notes Mike Locksley’s abysmal October/November record:
    “August, September combined: .807. October: .300. November: .200.” (35:37, Bill)

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8. Prime Time: Michigan at USC – “The Wrong Team is Favored?”

Timestamp: 38:06 – 45:04

• Why is USC favored at home? Both hosts puzzled, think Michigan is starting to find its groove.
• USC’s offensive threat: Jaden Maiava, Makai Lemon, but protection remains an issue.
• Key dynamic:
  • “I do feel like Michigan could be figuring it out... I just think Michigan’s better at the line of scrimmage on both sides.” (39:46, Bill)
  • Doug: “This could be like borderline make or break game.... The winner is a certified playoff contender. The loser’s probably done.” (40:13, Doug)
• Picks:
  • Doug: Michigan, 30-23.
  • Bill: Michigan, 31-24.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Doug, on transitive property in Texas football:
  “If North Texas beat South Florida, South Florida has beaten Florida, who has beaten Texas, so then North Texas would be better than Texas.” (02:19)
• Bill on Indiana’s challenge at Oregon:
  “It was pretty detrimental to Indiana’s efforts to try to beat Ohio State last year. Is it just that simple? They’re not built to go win in an environment like that?” (15:28)
• Doug on the state of the Big Ten QB play:
  “You planted the seed and then Ryan Day came back and was like, ‘Oh my God, 8th and Caliacmanis! Oh my God.’ Even Ryan Day has to come around and kind of realize it late because people don't quite understand.” (14:19)
• On Michigan-USC stakes:
  “This could be like borderline make or break game.... The winner is a certified playoff contender. The loser’s probably done.” (40:13, Doug)

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Summary of Picks and Key Timestamps

| Game (with Timestamp) | Doug’s Pick & Score | Bill’s Pick & Score | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------|------------------------| | South Florida @ North Texas (06:27) | South Florida 38-30 | North Texas 42-38 | | Alabama @ Missouri (09:40) | Missouri 30-27 | Alabama 38-24 | | Oregon vs. Indiana (25:24, 25:27) | Oregon 34-31 | Oregon 31-20 | | Oklahoma vs. Texas (32:03) | Texas 23-20 | Texas 20-17 | | Nebraska @ Maryland (34:52) | Nebraska 28-17 | Nebraska 24-21 | | Michigan @ USC (45:00, 45:04) | Michigan 30-23 | Michigan 31-24 |

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Additional Storylines & Big Ten Notes

• Temple-Navy and Philadelphia sports misery: Entertaining aside where Doug ribs Bill about the Philly teams’ simultaneous losses—worth checking for the chemistry and banter. (03:11)
• Big Ten’s improved QB play: Extended discussion about the new depth and quality in the conference at quarterback—rare national recognition. (14:19 – 15:28)
• Locksley’s October/November curse: Hilariously bleak. (35:37)

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Overall Tone & Takeaways

• The show is irreverent, highly informed, stats-driven but accessible, and often tongue-in-cheek.
• Doug and Bill play off each other with easy humor and sharp, reasoned disagreement.
• The blending of listener-friendly, big-picture playoff talk with granular team/roster analysis makes this episode a must-catch for college football fans curious about narratives beyond just the Buckeyes’ bubble.

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For Further Listening

• Postgame double-dip: Hosts remind fans about two live postgame shows Saturday night for instant reactions to highlighted matchups.
• Fans can check out www.roback.com with code BAD20 for promo gear, in support of show sponsors. (43:10)

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Transcript

[A]

Foreign. Welcome back to the Bill and Doug Show. National picks here on Friday. Landis, I sucked last week. 2 and 6. We picked seven national games, plus the Ohio State game. I was 2 and 6 against the spread, you were 4 and 4 for the season. You're 22 and 21 on 18 and 25. So it's just a reminder to the folks this isn't a gambling show. But if you want to use any of the advice here, use Bill's, not mine.

[B]

I thought you were. You're ready for the upswing because you had a good week two weeks ago, right? I did, yeah. Yeah. It's just the game. The game's tricky. We'll see. You have a bounce back. You're gonna bounce back this week. I can feel it.

[A]

Sports, man, sports. So we're picking six national games. That will include Indiana, Oregon. We'll have that discussion. That will include Red River, Oklahoma, Texas, that'll include Alabama, Missouri, it'll include Michigan, usc. But we're gonna start on Friday night. South Florida at North Texas on ESPN2 at 7:30 on Friday. North Texas is currently favored by one and a half. That's a three point line move from South Florida being favored by one and a half. This is a huge game. As we continue to monitor the group of five spot in the College Football Playoff, which probably is going to go to the champ of the American Athletic Conference. These are two of the teams that are undefeated in American Play. Navy is 3 0, Memphis is 2 0, Tulane is 2 0. And then South Florida, North Texas and temple are both 1 0. Landis.

[B]

This really matters does matter. Tulane got a scare, by the way, on Thursday against ecu. They pulled that out. And Navy and Temple play this weekend. So one of those teams will take a loss and one of these teams will take a loss. So it's gonna be a really fun conference race. I think also Friday night, really nice double feature with this game and Rutgers against Washington. I think a lot of points are going to be scored on Friday night. Friday night.

[A]

Yeah, we can't. We don't just want to come on and pick all Big Ten games. So there's a bunch of Big Ten games that like, we're not picking that are super interesting. Including Rutgers, Washington, including Wisconsin, Iowa. That's like a, you know, it's close game. That could go either way. The, the important thing here, there is something that is really on the line here that I'm interested in, and that is whether Texas is the fourth best college football team in the state of Texas. Because Texas Tech and Texas A M are already showing that they are better than Texas. And this is not even putting TCU and Baylor into this conversation. But if North Texas beat South Florida, South Florida has beaten Florida, who has beaten Texas, so then North Texas would be better than Texas.

[B]

I didn't think of the transitive property for the Longhorns. Yeah, down bad in Austin.

[A]

Who knew we are transitive? Steve Sarkeesian into the second tier of Texas State football. I actually almost feel a little bad that we are not doing Temple Navy on this. It's a 4pm kick on Saturday Landis in Lincoln Financial Field because the Philadelphia Eagles were nice enough to get out of the way on Thursday night by getting their butts kicked by the Giants and clear the way for Temple to use the place on Saturday.

[B]

The city needs Temple to win, let me tell you. Let me tell you that much. It is not a fun time to be a Philadelphia sportsman.

[A]

I saw that thing that you retweeted, which is there's only been twice in history that a city's NHL team, NFL team and Major League Baseball team have lost on the same day when the baseball team is also eliminated from the postseason. It's happened twice in history and it's both Philadelphia 1983 and this Thursday. So sorry, bro.

[B]

It's all right. It's okay. We're powering through.

[A]

If you were Casey Keeler, the Temple head coach that we are excited to have him in Northern college football, you were fired up about that hire. You called him the next, the next Kurt Signetti. Do you think Casey Keeler should get up in front of the Temple football team and say the city needs you and fire them up to go beat the Midshipman? Yes.

[B]

Look at these dozens of people that have come out to watch in this empty NFL stadium. Not joking. Like Temple's actually decent. Like they're, they're, they're not bad.

[A]

Absolutely. No, this is, I mean, like they could be. They're, they're. It's a 10 and a half point line that Navy is favored over Temple, which is why we didn't pick that. We're not picking that one. Instead of a South Florida North Texas game, that's basically a coin flip. But like, keep your eyes out. Keep your. If you want to. At 4 o' clock on Saturday, if you want to take a peek at Temple Navy, we would invite you to and on. But on Friday night, this is a little more wide open to take a look at this. South Florida 4 and 1 opened with wins over Boise State in Florida Then got blown up by Miami. But a lot of people are going to get blown out by Miami this year. South Florida, the last two games has scored 63 and 54. North Texas is 5 0. But two of those wins are in overtime against Western Michigan and Army. South Florida, I think, like people were all in on South Florida after they beat Florida and then they got their doors blown off and it was like a little bit. I think people forgot about him a little bit. But Byron Brown, their quarterback last game for, threw for 211 and ran for 162. I kind of like South Florida here.

[B]

Everything about this, I think, points you in the direction of South Florida. It's. It's kind of shocking that North Texas is a favorite. I don't, I don't know why. I don't. I. I really don't know why. South Florida has been tested and beaten much better teams. I think just from an athlete standpoint, South Florida is closer to the top end of the American and North Texas is playing really well, but probably closer to the middle of the American, if not the bottom, in terms of just the athletes. It gets. So it's weird that this is one and a half. North Texas has the best defense in the American, but they've, they've really not, They've not played anybody. You don't get a whole lot of. They play nobody in G5. But you're getting it here from, from North Texas. So all of it's very strange. And it has my antennas up, so I'm picking North Texas.

[A]

Oh, yeah. Yeah, you are. All right. What, what's, what's your score here?

[B]

High scoring, 42, 38. Fun quarterback matchup. Drew Mestemaker from North Texas is pretty darn good.

[A]

Yeah, I think he's one of the guys you were talking about. I think on whatever we were talking about, like quarterbacks who haven't thrown a pick yet but have at least 100 attempts. I think you said there are eight of them. And I think he's on that list too. Right. With Luke Altmeyer from Illinois.

[B]

Yep. He's one of them.

[A]

Okay. I am going to take South Florida. And I am going to take South Florida. What's my score? 38 to 30. So we will go head to head here seeing who is right. And as you pointed out, like a nice Friday night. I don't know if people are still mad about college football interfering with high school footballs on Friday. Like, if you are, I get it, then just like DVR or whatever. But as you said, you can watch South Florida, North Texas or record it at 7:30 on ESPN2 and then Rutgers at Washington at 9pm on FS1. We're not picking Rutgers Washington, but both those teams can move the ball and put up some points and I think Rutgers Washington will be a lovely watch on Friday night. Yes.

[B]

Yeah. If you like teams throwing the football, I think Friday night going to be a fun night.

[A]

Yeah. Okay, so we're not picking that. We are moving to Saturday. And this is Alabama at Missouri at noon on abc. Missouri at home is an underdog getting three and a half points. Missouri I just don't have a handle on. They're undefeated. There are only two good wins. Kansas 42, 31. They beat Kansas and 2920 over South Carolina. You know, I like nothing more than picking against Alabama, but I'm curious if Missouri is fake good.

[B]

I think Missouri could be fake good. Like the, the statistical profile is very good. Like even like the past defense. Yeah. We would wonder about in this game against Alabama. Right. Is excellent statistically until you sort of like look at why. And it's because the three awful teams they played couldn't throw the ball at all. And the two power four teams have played through it pretty well. Yeah. So. So like I don't, I don't know how good Missouri's defense is. Like Ahmad Hardy, their running back is, is very good and one of the better running backs in the country. And Alabama's run defense is not particularly good and they've also had tackling problems. So there's definitely a pathway for Missouri to win the game. But it also kind of feels to me like a spot where Ty Simpson and Ryan Williams who is like injured but I think going to play and that Alabama passing attack might just kind of have its way with this defense.

[A]

Ahmad Hardy, as you mentioned, he's forced 46 missed tackles according to PFF, which is far and away the most in the power for the next running back has for forced 33 missed tackles. So he's 13 ahead. He averages 7 yards per carry. He averages 5.3 yards after contact. Again his yards after contact is the most in the power four. One thing I thought was interesting, again part of this is built on sort of the not so great teams they're playing. Missouri is first in the nation in third down conversions. Offensively they, they make their third down 62% of the time. Alabama's defense is 97th in the country in allowing successful third down conversions 43% of the time. So as much as I think Missouri might be Fake good. I think Bama is fake great. I think Missouri, with that run game bo pes legs involved as well, maybe can just like convert some third downs, keep the ball and win this thing. I'm going to take Missouri 30 to 27.

[B]

Okay. I'm going to. I'm in a different spot than you. I, I think, I think Missouri will score some but I don't think they're going to be able to stop Alabama. I have Alabama winning 38, 3,824.

[C]

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[A]

I still think Missouri's fake good. I just think they'll beat Alabama. Is that okay? Like is that.

[B]

We all have agendas. We all have agendas. It's fine.

[A]

I'm not anointing Missouri. I just continue to be in a like I'll show me, show me, prove it to me situation with Alabama.

[B]

All right.

[A]

The game that we will be focused on the most from a Big Ten perspective, obviously outside of Ohio State, Illinois, it's just a really nice not everybody in the Big Ten is playing this week. You get Rutgers, Washington on Friday night. Then there's two noon games highlighted by Ohio State, Illinois. Then there's three, 3:30 games highlighted by Oregon, Indiana. Then there's three primetime games highlighted by USC, Michigan. And it's just like a really nice Big Ten schedule of a bunch of like interesting games. There's Kind of not really a game that doesn't matter at all. I guess maybe you. Is it ucla, Michigan State? That might be the closest to that.

[B]

But like State better hope Penn State, Northwestern.

[A]

But I mean like you got, you know, normally it'd be like, oh, Penn State's awesome. They're going to kill Northwestern. Now again, transitive property. Northwestern beat ucla. UCLA beat Penn State. Like what are we talking about here? Is it. Should Northwestern be favored in Happy Valley? That's the question people are asking.

[B]

We're not going to getting the opportunity. He didn't get in the playoff last year.

[A]

Oh my God. SMU revenge game. Oh, I didn't even think of that. That Preston Stone's been in that building before.

[B]

He has, yeah.

[A]

Smu. Yeah. SMU lost its playoff game at Penn State last year when Preston Stone was the backup quarterback for SMU and then quickly transferred to Northwestern. Guys, guys, I've been in the visiting tunnel. We got this. Follow me. It's like, oh, Preston, did you play it? Like, I didn't play, but still follow me. We got this. We're not picking that. We are picking Indiana at Oregon Saturday 3:30 CBS. Oregon is a seven and a half point favorite. A reminder. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana, 16 touchdown passes, one interception. Dante Moore, Oregon, 14 touchdown passes, one interception. I was looking at some NFL draft persons re evaluation of the the draft class in 2026 at the quarterback position and Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore were 12 actually I think Moore was first but they were the top two in like NFL draft prospects. In a world where we were just absolutely force fed Nussmeier all off season, you know, it's from Nussburg. Crimson took this Nussmeier, but I don't want any more Nussmeier. And now we've settled on Oregon. Indiana is the best quarterback of NFL draft options out there.

[B]

Yeah, I tried to ask Ryan Day, by the way, a couple weeks ago before Ohio State played Washington, like, hey, isn't the big, the quarterback playing the Big Ten really good? And he was like, oh, but we'll see. And then this week he's like the Big Ten. The quarterback playing the Big Ten is incredible. And because they're getting ready to play Luke Altmiren, he's played very well too. So like he's on board. He knows that the Big Ten's got, I mean the Big Ten's got. I see all these like top quarterbacks in the college football list and like there's like one big Ten guy on them. It's like honorable mentioned Julian saying like seven of the best, like 15 quarterbacks in college football are in the Big Ten.

[A]

Yeah, part of it. Well, you know what happened there? It's like you asked him that question. He had not thought about it. And then he was like, you know what, can someone get me some stuff? Can someone give me. I want to print out of every starting quarterback in the Big Ten and their stats. And then somebody gave him that and then he was like, oh my God. 8th and Caliac manis. Oh my God. And so you planted the seed and then he came back and it was like I realized this. Even Ryan Day has to come around and kind of realize it late because people don't quite understand. But. But Mendoza and more people understand this and people understand Dan Lanning and Kurt Signetti as much as Brett Bielem in a lot of ways remains like the mouthpiece of the Big Ten. These are two talk it, walk it coaches. And to have a gigantic Big Ten showdown that does not include Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State. And It's a top 10 matchup with huge playoff implications and we just expect a banger. It's so good for this league. Can Indiana actually go in here and win this game.

[B]

There? Yeah, I think there, there are, there are reasons that can get you there. The thing that, that's hard for me to get out of my mind is. And there are different teams, especially on the offensive line, but how much of a struggle it was for Indiana to handle the noise in Ohio Stadium last year and now they're, now they're going the Austin which like no offense to Ohio Stadium is significantly louder than Ohio Stadium. So like I don't like that. That's just sort of a. It's like a non football thing. But it was pretty detrimental to Indiana's efforts to try to beat Ohio State last year. And I just like part of it for me is like is it, is it just that simple? Like they're not, they're not built to go win in an environment like that. I guess the one thing they have is in their favor is that Fernando Mendoza has played an awesome before. Oh, he started against Oregon at Cal in 2023. Like it wasn't this high stakes of a game and I'm sure this environment will be different, but if you're. It's. It's like we were joking about Preston Stone, but like this is like the real version of it, right? Like, like Fernando Mendoza like knows. Knows what it's like to play in front of an Oregon crowd. So maybe that's Enough for Indiana to get over that particular piece of it.

[A]

And, and, and no disrespect to our guy Mike Katic, and again, did we single handedly launch his media career?

[B]

People are, yes, yes.

[A]

I'll tell you what, we've got a little bit of a tree. I'm proud of our tree. We got a little bit of a tree. Come on, come on. You come, you hang out with us. Good things happen.

[B]

So this Mike, Kate and Tyler Shoemaker.

[A]

Yes. And Ari. Come on, Ari. We incubated Ari. Are you kidding me? Ari has become a college football monster. And we're the scientists. Like it's out of control. We love Ari. It's because he's great at it. He's great at it. Mike Katic was like a product of like the old Indiana and then was central to the rise of new Indiana. And Curtis Rourke as a quarterback last year for Indiana was a Mac guy. So you have like an old Indiana guy and a Mac guy who are then unbelievable. They are playing at an incredibly high level. But then they come into Ohio Stadium and it all crashes down on them. This year it's Fernando Mendoza from Cal who as you said, has played at Austin. And their center is Pat Coogan who was the starting center for Notre Dame during its playoff run last year. So Pat Coogan as a center has been through this. So I think just experience in college football moments, that connection is I think way ahead of where they were last year. And then so many of the other things for Indiana, playmakers at all three levels of the defense, playmakers at receiver and running back. Right. Are. Are there. I think they are monumentally more prepared to handle a tough road environment this season than last season.

[B]

I think you're probably right. It even like this year, right. Like so, so last year it's like they went to Ohio State. We're not competitive, couldn't handle it. They played at Notre Dame in the playoff. It kind of got away from. And then it kind of rallied late and. But even this year, like they went to Kinnick against like a. Looks like a bad Iowa team. And it was close, right? Like they did not put their best foot forward in that game. So is that like lesson learned? It's our first road game. We kind of know what this is now. Or is that any indication of Indiana at home is a, is a monster. And Indiana on the road, especially against a good team, is. Is. Is just not quite what it needs to be to go in a game like this.

[A]

A thing that I don't think the average person. And by average person, I mean SEC Honk who doesn't know anything about Indiana and Oregon and just comes in and is like, Indiana has better skill in Oregon.

[B]

Deeper skill like Decorium Moore is the best skill player.

[A]

But Indiana in this game will bring in Elijah Surratt and Omar Cooper Jr. They're. They are averaging combined 12 catches for 164 yards per game, receiving combined. And then Roman Hemby and Kalon Black at running back combined are averaging 24 carries for 130 rush, 39 rushing yards per game. So they have two dudes at receiver, two dud at running back. Oregon has Decoran Moore as a true freshman who's been awesome. Kenyan Sadiq in contention for the best tight end in America. They're. The Makai Hughes thing remains like one of the strangest things of the Big Ten and college football season. The transfer running back from Tulane who people were super excited about and then just was not a factor at all and is now transferring and is done. They have multiple guys there, including Dier Hill Jr. Who Dan Lanning said is going to get more carries and has been involved. It was good against Penn State. So, like, they have guys, but. But if you're not careful, I think you could be like, oh, like Oregon, they wear crazy uniforms and they're explosive or whatever. In Indiana, cursing day is going to come. Grinding. I was like, Indiana's gonna come in and like chuck it all over the place to Elijah Surratt and Omar Cooper and maybe try to like Indiana secondary versus Oregon secondary. Like, where do you go there? Oregon keeps rebuilding its secondary in the portal every season. And I'm not saying it, but I.

[B]

Don'T think it's been tested. I think, like, that much is true. It hasn't been. That Oregon secondary has not been tested yet because the best offense they played is Penn State. And Penn State doesn't have a functional.

[A]

Passing offense like the passing offense of Indiana compared to the passing offense of Penn State.

[B]

It's night and day. Yeah.

[A]

So. So I'm just saying. But also, it would make me feel like a crazy person to pick Indiana. Like, right. Wouldn't it make you.

[B]

Well, there's an area. Yeah, well, there's an area we haven't discussed yet. Bring it up the Trent.

[A]

The trenches get trenchy on us.

[B]

I think Oregon is significantly better in the trenches than Indiana.

[A]

Not great pass rush, though. Not great pass rush from Oregon or. Or what do you think?

[B]

Like, they played a pretty good pence. I. I think like the right side of Indiana's offensive line is in the four year world of her in this game.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

I just, I don't, I don't know that Fernando Mendoza will have the time he needs to throw the ball in a way that Indiana gets a win and I don't know Indiana's hat. Indiana in its first four games had like almost 1300 rushing yards and then they ran for like 100 against Iowa.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

I just, I don't, I think Indiana's offensive line is better than it was last year probably. I don't, I don't think it's like a go, to go, to go win this game kind of offensive line. And then I think Indiana's defensive line is, is, is solid, but Oregon's offensive line's great. I just, I just kind of think that's where it's, I don't disagree with anything you said about the skill and it's a really fun quarterback matchup, but I think that Dante Moore is going to have a more comfortable afternoon than Fernando Mendoza is.

[A]

And also Dante Moore might win the Heisman. This is just a quick check on, on Dante Moore again. Fourteen touchdowns, one interception. Oregon has been kind of a dink and dunk offense and because it works. But Bo Nix in 2023 and Dylan Gabriel last year, both of them, 67 of their passes down the field were nine yards or shorter. And Dante Moore this year is only 59. It's not a huge difference, but I think it matters. Nicks in 23, his average depth of target was 6.8 yards. Gabriel last year was 7. Dante Moore is 8.6. They're just pushing the ball down the field a little bit more to Decori Moore to Bleak Benson. Kenyon Sadiq can stretch a field as a tight end. And I think I could see if you thought like Oregon's going to try to dink and dunk Kurt Signetti and Kurt Signetti is going to have a plan for that and then they'll just try to get the ball out of, you know, if their offensive line can't hold up, get the ball out of their playmate, out of Mendoza's hands and get it out to their playmakers. And they have a skill position, edge and Oregon secondary hasn't been tested, but I think when push comes to shove in this game, if Indiana really is putting on Oregon, then I think Dante Moore has the ability to make plays down the field and, and right at maybe a breaking point. I thought, I've just thought sometimes in the past, like, man, if you just sort of like box them in a little bit. And if you, if you have some run and chase guys defensively, you could maybe frustrate Oregon. And I think Dante Moore is taking a lot to that next level. So I, I expect Indiana to make Oregon play great, and then I expect in situations, Dante Moore to make plays to get the Ducks over the top.

[B]

Yeah. And I, I could be like, kind of doing the thing that makes me angry, which is, which is kind of like ascribing a lot of what we saw from Indiana last year to this team. And I do think this team is better. So I could be way off. Like, maybe, maybe everything we've seen from Indiana to this point is, is 100 legitimate and they're ready to go win this game. Like, it's not like Oregon's a, you know, two or three touchdown favorite here. And I thought too that, like, that my concerns about Indiana's offensive line would be a reason they would lose to Illinois. And I was incredibly wrong about that.

[A]

So.

[B]

I'm still there. Perhaps foolishly so. I just, I, I think, like, yeah, Dante Moore's athleticism combined with what I think is a pretty significant edge for Oregon on the offensive and defensive lines is what's going to win Oregon the game.

[A]

So Oregon's favored by seven and a half. What's your score?

[B]

Oregon 31, 20.

[A]

Okay, so you'll give the seven and a half. I'm gonna take the points. I am gonna pick Oregon, but I'm gonna pick Oregon. 34, 31.

[B]

Nice.

[A]

So I feel like Kurt Signetti, I mean, it's after, but like Kirk's in the Signetti after the Illinois game was like, we knew we were gonna kill them. And then Kirk Signetti was like, this Iowa trip is going to be a dog fight. And then it was. And I actually think Kinnick this Iowa team and Kinnick is like a perfect warm up for the Oregon team at Austin, you know that. And Kurt Signetti I think could be like, listen, we had trouble with that. Oregon's a lot better. We respect Iowa, but Oregon's a lot better. And we had trouble handling that. This is so like, let's get straight. You know, I think that's a good warm up. And both these teams were off last week, so they had time to get ready for this. I just, I, I, I think Oregon can make it. I think Indiana can make it a game. I think they can make it tough.

[B]

I hope they do.

[A]

And this is one of those again where it's like, I think I can simultaneously believe that Oregon is one of the two best teams in college football and that Indiana can give them a game which would just be a reminder of, I think Indiana is like a real team. Do you think, do you have, do you think Indiana is a little hollow? Like, I like that they can, can beat up on some teams that have holes, but when they play truly elite teams, they're not going to hang. Or do you think.

[B]

Yeah, that's kind of. I still kind of feel that way. I'll be happy to be wrong. And I'm, I'm also, I'll be on alert for it because I think a lot of the discussion right has been like three best teams in college football, High state, Oregon, Miami, in whatever order you prefer to put them. And if Indiana goes and loses, but loses competitively, like that narrative about Oregon, I don't think should change all. It should change, yes, Indiana's for real. So we'll see I guess if that actually ends up happening.

[A]

But okay.

[B]

I kind of. Yeah, I just, I think, I think there's a, there's a, there's a level that Indiana is not quite at that that Oregon and Ohio State of Miami.

[A]

Are.

[C]

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[A]

Also at 3:30 opposite Oregon, Indiana is Red River, Oklahoma, Texas on ABC. Texas is now getting a point and a half. They were favored by a point and a half. I'm not. I catch stray things. I don't really Understand the world. But did John Mateer tell somebody at Chipotle that he was going to play? Did you, is that a story?

[B]

Apparently, yes. I, I, I caught wind of that as well. Yeah.

[A]

I saw a headline that was like a student journalist I think said it was like the Chipotle Tortilla presser who talked to John Matier and, and presser I took as press conference and I thought did John Tier have a press conference at Chipotle and this student journalist was there for it. But they mean the Tortilla presser that the person was like, what was making John Matera tortilla? They were like, hey man, are you going to play? And he was like, yeah, extra beans. And yes, I'm playing against Texas, so God bless it, but that's enough. Like if John Mateer plays for Oklahoma, their starting quarterback who's been injured, if he plays against Texas. That's why this line has moved. I don't know what's gonna happen. What do you think?

[B]

I think all this is great. Like the Chipotle guy, the, the Dr. Stephen Shin, the dessert, the surgeon who did, who did the procedure and like someone's like posting his name on the message board saying he's gonna be okay. Like it's all, it's all great. I don't think he's gonna play. So I think Oklahoma, I think, and this was pointed out on. Who was I watching? I think I might have been watching like the Fox Sports, the, the Bear, like his, his betting show. And there was like a game a couple years ago when Dylan Gabriel was at Oklahoma and like he was hurt and he had like a concussion and there was no way he was going to play. And like he dressed and he went through warm ups and everyone's like, he's playing. And then he came out of the tunnel in shorts when it was time to actually play the game. Like, yeah, I think this is all, this is all a charade. I don't, I don't think, I don't think he's gonna play. And if he does play, like I don't think he's gonna be any good. He broke his thumb throwing hand. How could he possibly gr. What are you going to go put them out there and run? Triple option. So I'm picking Texas.

[A]

Okay. I'm okay with that because I'm picking Texas too. Because I don't know, is Texas going to go like 3 and 9? Like is Texas dead? Maybe.

[B]

I mean maybe, but quite possibly, yeah. It's funny, it's funny to me, like that the, the Arch Manning stinks narrative is now morphing a little bit into like, yeah, he's not great, but actually it's his offensive line that's really bad. Yeah. And I don't, I don't disagree with Texas's offensive line being bad. They're rebuilding it. It hasn't gone well. And Oklahoma's defensive line looks pretty scary at times. So they could just like dominate Texas up front and win a pretty low scoring game. I think it's low scoring either way, but I think Oklahoma is either going to play a quarterback who shouldn't play or play a backup quarterback who put three points on the board against Texas in this game last year. So I'll take Texas.

[A]

All right, what's your score?

[B]

20 to 17.

[A]

Okay, I'm right there. I'm taking Texas 2320. So. And also like rivalry game, one team's down, one team's a little puffed up. Like the down team being like, okay, this is where we draw the line. That, that makes sense to me. Another 3:30 game that you can keep an eye on is Nebraska at Maryland. Big Ten Network. Nebraska on the road is favored by six and a half. Nebraska handled Michigan State like kind of win a weird game. Barely. Last time out, Maryland had Washington on the ropes and couldn't finish that off. This continues to be as, as, as you and I have sort of on our Tuesday show on the playoff show hashed out Big Ten playoff contenders. Nebraska's in that mix, but this is and, and Maryland at 4 and 1 is in that mix for now. But if Nebraska wants to be anything like you, you have to go do this. And I do think Nebraska, I think, feels like it's past defense has played pretty well. And so for Malik Washington as a freshman quarterback for Maryland, they might have a chance to sort of get a handle on that a little bit. But this is, this is the exact, this exact kind of game. Like if Ohio State or Oregon was going to Maryland, nobody would be like, I don't know. But if you're trying to be a 10 win team, no offense to Maryland, you got to go win at Maryland. So can Nebraska do that?

[B]

Yeah, they can. Maryland can't run the ball. And I think matchup wise, Nebraska's defense is probably ready to handle the Maryland passing attack. First road game for Nebraska this year. Kind of strange. It's up late into the season, they haven't played on the road yet. Dylan Raiola last year was one in four on the road. His only win was against Purdue. The thing that can make it interesting is that Nebraska's offensive line stinks and Maryland's defensive line can kind of get after you a little bit. They have 19 sacks this year. It's one of the higher totals in the country. They have nine in their two Big Ten games against Wisconsin and Washington. So I don't, I think Nebraska will win because, like, top to bottom, it's just a little better. But I actually don't think it's going to be a fun, like afternoon for, for Nebraska trying to figure things out on offense. It is a bit remarkable. There are two teams in the Big Ten that have like totally flipped their identities and it is Rutgers and Maryland. Rutgers is awful on defense and awesome on offense and Maryland is kind of middling on offense and looks like pretty good on defense. And that is not typically, typically how they play. Okay, So I think, I think Maryland's defense keeps it close, but Nebraska is going to win. I have Nebraska winning 24, 21.

[A]

And in the name of picking the exact same things I have, I have Nebraska 28, 17. This is, this is, this is a little bit. This is a test. This is, this stretch. As you said, I haven't played a road game yet. So at Maryland this week for Nebraska and then next Friday at Minnesota. So back to back road games and the second one's a Friday night on short rest like that. And that's a rivalry game. Like, yeah, that will be. We'll make sure we pick that next next week. But that's where I would like. That could be a tough spot for Nebraska to try to handle that back to back. But in the meantime, they, they, they have to go do this if they want to have a chance to be sort of at the edge of the playoff race. All right, last one.

[B]

Can I give out my. Because I just. Because I looked it up, I mentioned it last week. I mentioned road Washington versus October, Maryland. I went and looked it up. Mike Loxley. I didn't count 2020 because 2020 was weird. So every other year, his winning percentage by month, August, September, combined 807. October 300. November 200.

[A]

Should Maryland go independent and just scheduled 12 games a year against Florida International and Western Michigan? It is. They do okay, but again, like this, they gotta win. So they only won one Big Ten game last year, but they beat USC at home in like a weird spot. Like this is like a weird spot. Maryland, like, you squeeze one win out, you try to get to six, get to a bowl. Keep the Malik Washington energy going, keep the recruiting energy going. A little bit like try to, try to make a step there. It's not a hang on by your finger like they would be nice for Maryland if they could get one of these, one of these along the way here somewhere to try to get to six.

[C]

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[A]

All right, last one is Michigan at USC on Saturday night on NBC. 7:30 start. Michigan at home. No, Michigan on the road is a two and a half point dog. So USC at home is favored. I'm not a, I guess I'm not.

[B]

100 team favored, right? The wrong team is favored.

[A]

Yeah, I'm not a hundred percent sure why that is. Because USC sort of, I mean like we see the USC talent, right? I mean you can see, you can see talent peeking through with Jade Maeva who has, you know, 11 touchdown passes against only one interception. You see it peeking through with Makai lemon who has 589 receiving yards. Like, right? But, but they still just get, don't they just get in their own way a lot still? And I feel like Michigan might be figuring it out a little bit.

[B]

I do feel like Michigan could be figuring it, figuring it out a little bit. It's also fresh on my mind because we were diving into Ohio State, Illinois earlier this week. Like I watched the Illinois USC game again and Illinois just pushed him around on both sides. So like why won't, why won't Michigan do that? I guess I would say, like if that doesn't happen, and primarily by that, I mean if USC can protect Jaden Mayava, like I think they can throw it on Michigan. Like I don't think Michigan secondary is great. I don't Makai Lemons all he is. I mean everyone knows he's one of the best receivers in the country. Jacoby Lane missed some time, played a little bit against Illinois. I would, I would assume you would get like a full game out of him now. So like, I don't, I don't know that Michigan can cover both those guys. If my alpha has time to throw the ball, I'm just not sure he will.

[A]

It's different.

[B]

Like that game against Illinois was on the road. It was a 9am Body clock, body clock game for USC third home. That's not a factor. Maybe, maybe that'll be less of an issue. But I, again, it's, it's not a dissimilar conversation for me from like the Oregon, Indiana competition or game. I just think Michigan's better at the line of scrimmage on both sides and they'll win the game that way.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

I think again, this is if Michigan can win this. And, and it's not just, it's not, not everything is about the playoff conversation. But these teams all think they're, they deserve to be in that conversation. Right. And this is, it's not the only way to define success. But with a loss to Oklahoma and then obviously that gigantic, the game looming at the end of the year with Ohio State, like Michigan certainly can see its way to 10 wins. And I do think a 10 win Michigan team is a very, very relevant playoff contender. But like this could be like borderline make or break game. I think the, the winner of this game is a, is a certified playoff contender. The loser's probably done.

[B]

I think that's right. Yeah. Neither of these teams will be getting in with three losses. Yeah.

[A]

If, if Michigan loses to USC and runs the table with a win over Ohio State, they're in. Right. But like you're at the very least out of wiggle room and USC has Notre Dame next week. So us like this is again, if you know, so us, that's next week. So they're like, they're home Michigan and they're looking ahead to Notre Dame next week. That. So if USC can beat Michigan but then they lose to Notre Dame, but then they run the table and there's a 10 win. Like again there's just a lot of. There's up. There's opportunity here, but there's, you're out of. The loser is absolutely out of wiggle room. So this really matters. And this again, if, if you know usc, Michigan, that's a great game no matter what. But this is what the 12 team playoff has given us that we're having like a playoff conversation here. And I don't think that anybody thinks these teams are national title contenders, but this really matters, right? This, this is good. This really matters.

[B]

I think it matters. And like I, you know, think about last year when USC was not as good as it is now. Penn State went out there and it was an overtime game, right? So like whatever, whether that's travel or what. Like I think, yeah, I don't think usc. USC is not at the top of the Big Ten clearly, but I don't think it's a team that's going to get run off the field by the top teams in the Big Ten either. So. And they probably should have beat Illinois like the way that that game unfolded. They had like, there were some breaks that went its way that they didn't take full advantage of. So I think USC is like kind of like on the right. I don't love Lincoln Riley, but I think USC is sort of on the right track. I just don't know if it's equipped to go in this game. And unless like I said, it's bombs away with Makai Lemon and Jacoby Lane, then, then they can win.

[A]

Eager to see. So yeah, one is. One is. This is our plan for Saturday. One. First we'll do a live post game as soon as Illinois Ohio State ends. So that's a noon kickoff. That'll be right around 3:30. We'll be jumping on this YouTube feed live for an Ohio State Illinois post game show. And then we're gonna do a second post game show when the prime time games are over. Primarily this one where we will talk about what happened with Indiana, Oregon, what that means for the Big Ten, what that means for the playoff conversation. We'll talk about Michigan, usc, we'll talk about Red river, we'll talk about Alabama losing to Missouri. We'll talk about everything that is happening. Got that right past you. Well, all the things that are happening in college football beyond Ohio State. So that's so that. So join us. We're planning for a double dip postgame show. No, no watch long or anything this week, but double get dip postgame show. So we'll see from a national college perspective on Saturday night around 11 and also go check out roback.com. game day Collection. Fall is here. Cool stuff. And it's one of those. I still like window shopping in the order your clothes online age. I like in person window shopping the best. But I like. I. It brings me pleasure to think of the quarter zips that I would buy if I had a little bit more money. So you can get pleasure from roback.com even without buying something, which is a great way you can to back your advertiser. Go to their site. Don't even buy anything. Just let the pleasure of looking wash over you and then everybody will go out of business because nobody makes any money. But also go to roback.com and just see what's happening. See if something cool strikes your fancy. And if it does, then you can use the code BAD20 to get 20 off your first order. So that's a good way to do it. Like I'll just check it out. Oh God. Just, just check it out. R H O-B-A-K.com the game day Collection. All kinds of college football gear. B a D20 for 20 off your first order. All right, those are our picks. Let's see if I can do better.

[B]

We didn't pick. We didn't pick. We didn't pick Michigan. Usc. We didn't give our score.

[A]

Just vibes. Michigan vibes is enough, isn't it? 3023 Michigan.

[B]

Oh, cool. I'm 31. 24 Michigan. Yeah, great.

[A]

Glad we did that. What was the point? How. How can we share a brain but yet you're still so far ahead of me this year. Like that's. I just need. If you could send me your picks ahead of time, then I'll just change it by one point each week and at least I'll. I won't be going down the tubes by myself. So as you, as us, we're united on a bunch of stuff. But we'll see if Landis has the edge where we disagree. So those are our picks. Thanks to you guys for being here. We'll catch you on some of the post game shows on Saturday. For now, he's Bill Landis. I'm Doug Lemurice and that was the Bill and Doug Show.