The Bill and Doug Show: Ohio State Football Talk

Episode: Oregon vs. Indiana Showdown, plus Michigan-USC, Oklahoma-Texas and more: College Football Picks
Release Date: October 10, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises (A) and Bill Landis (B)

Episode Overview

Doug and Bill deliver another fast-paced, passionately argued national picks episode, focusing on the weekend’s marquee college football matchups. They break down high-profile games including Oregon vs. Indiana, Michigan vs. USC, and Oklahoma vs. Texas, while also giving attention to under-the-radar matchups in the Group of Five and the Big Ten. Known for insightful analysis, wry humor, and their “fans-first, anti-Southern-bias” stance, the hosts debate game implications, trends, and storylines, making the show both entertaining and informative for Buckeye and national college football fans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Picking National Games, Not a Gambling Show

Timestamp: 00:00 – 01:35

• Doug admits struggle with last week’s picks:
  “Landis, I sucked last week. 2 and 6 against the spread... this isn't a gambling show. But if you want to use any of the advice here, use Bill's, not mine.” (00:03, Doug)
• Bill reassures Doug the unpredictable nature of college football leads to swings in picks performance.

2. Friday Night Group of Five Clash: South Florida @ North Texas

Timestamp: 01:40 – 07:10

• Game Context: Potential American Athletic Conference title and G5 playoff implications.
• Line Movement Noted: North Texas now a 1.5-point favorite after previously being the underdog.
• Stat-heavy breakdown:
  • South Florida is the more athletic and battle-tested team. Byron Brown has emerged as a dynamic QB.
  • North Texas undefeated but with weaker SOS (strength of schedule), two OT wins raise questions.
• Football math fun:
  • Doug proposes, tongue-in-cheek, that transitive wins could make North Texas “better than Texas.”
  • “If North Texas beat South Florida, South Florida has beaten Florida, who has beaten Texas, so then North Texas would be better than Texas.” (02:19, Doug)
• Picks:
  • Bill: North Texas wins 42-38. “High scoring, 42, 38. Fun quarterback matchup...” (06:07, Bill)
  • Doug: South Florida wins 38-30.

3. Big Ten Sidelines & Funny Asides: Philly Sports & Temple Daydreaming

Timestamp: 03:11 – 04:14

• Aside about Philadelphia sports misery and Temple’s rare chance for city pride.
• Fun ribbing: “The city needs Temple to win, let me tell you. It is not a fun time to be a Philadelphia sportsman.” (03:11, Bill)

4. Noon Saturday: Alabama @ Missouri

Timestamp: 07:15 – 11:28

• Missouri is undefeated but “fake good”? Doug expresses skepticism.
• Key statistical matchups:
  • Ahmad Hardy (Missouri RB) has forced the most missed tackles in Power 4.
  • Missouri’s third-down offense vs. Bama’s poor 3rd-down defense.
• Game Theory:
  • Doug: “I think Bama is fake great. I think Missouri, with that run game... can just, like, convert some third downs, keep the ball and win this thing.” (08:36)
• Picks:
  • Doug: Missouri wins, 30-27.
  • Bill: Alabama wins, 38-24.

5. Deep Dive: Oregon vs. Indiana – Top 10 Big Ten Showdown

Timestamp: 11:28 – 27:31

• Playoff and Conference Stakes: Top 10 matchup, huge for both team’s postseason ambitions.
• Quarterback Spotlight:
  • Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore have remarkable efficiency.
  • NFL Draft interest in both QBs.
• Atmosphere Challenge:
  • Road worry for Indiana: “How much of a struggle it was for Indiana to handle the noise in Ohio Stadium last year... now they're going to [Oregon’s] Autzen, which... is significantly louder.” (15:28, Bill)
• Indiana’s Growth:
  • “They are monumentally more prepared to handle a tough road environment this season than last season.” (17:09, Doug)
  • Explosive duo at WR (Elijah Surratt & Omar Cooper Jr.) and backfield (Roman Hemby & Kalon Black).
• Skill vs. Trenches:
  • Hosts agree Indiana may have skill talent edge, but Oregon is decisively better on the lines.
  • “I think Oregon is significantly better in the trenches than Indiana.” (21:34, Bill)
• Dante Moore’s Heisman buzz:
  • Doug analyzes how Moore’s deeper passing (Avg. 8.6 yds/attempt) gives Oregon a dimension previous QBs lacked.
• Picks:
  • Bill: Oregon covers, 31-20.
  • Doug: Oregon narrowly escapes, 34-31. “I think Indiana can make it a game. I think they can make it tough.” (25:38, Doug)

6. Red River Rivalry: Oklahoma vs. Texas

Timestamp: 28:49 – 32:03

• QB Uncertainty and The Chipotle Scoop:
  • Amusement about rumors of Oklahoma QB John Mateer confirming he’ll play to a Chipotle employee.
  • Bill is skeptical Mateer is healthy enough: “If he does play... what are you going to go put them out there and run triple option?” (31:09, Bill)
• Picks:
  • Bill: Texas, 20-17.
  • Doug: Texas, 23-20.

7. Big Ten Bubble: Nebraska at Maryland

Timestamp: 32:03 – 36:49

• Nebraska’s tests: First road game; offensive line is a concern.
• Maryland’s changing identity: Noted defensive improvement, offensive regression.
• Picks:
  • Bill: Nebraska, 24-21.
  • Doug: Nebraska, 28-17.
• Memorable stat:
  • Bill notes Mike Locksley’s abysmal October/November record:
    “August, September combined: .807. October: .300. November: .200.” (35:37, Bill)

8. Prime Time: Michigan at USC – “The Wrong Team is Favored?”

Timestamp: 38:06 – 45:04

• Why is USC favored at home? Both hosts puzzled, think Michigan is starting to find its groove.
• USC’s offensive threat: Jaden Maiava, Makai Lemon, but protection remains an issue.
• Key dynamic:
  • “I do feel like Michigan could be figuring it out... I just think Michigan’s better at the line of scrimmage on both sides.” (39:46, Bill)
  • Doug: “This could be like borderline make or break game.... The winner is a certified playoff contender. The loser’s probably done.” (40:13, Doug)
• Picks:
  • Doug: Michigan, 30-23.
  • Bill: Michigan, 31-24.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• Doug, on transitive property in Texas football:
  “If North Texas beat South Florida, South Florida has beaten Florida, who has beaten Texas, so then North Texas would be better than Texas.” (02:19)
• Bill on Indiana’s challenge at Oregon:
  “It was pretty detrimental to Indiana’s efforts to try to beat Ohio State last year. Is it just that simple? They’re not built to go win in an environment like that?” (15:28)
• Doug on the state of the Big Ten QB play:
  “You planted the seed and then Ryan Day came back and was like, ‘Oh my God, 8th and Caliacmanis! Oh my God.’ Even Ryan Day has to come around and kind of realize it late because people don't quite understand.” (14:19)
• On Michigan-USC stakes:
  “This could be like borderline make or break game.... The winner is a certified playoff contender. The loser’s probably done.” (40:13, Doug)

Summary of Picks and Key Timestamps

| Game (with Timestamp) | Doug’s Pick & Score | Bill’s Pick & Score | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------|------------------------| | South Florida @ North Texas (06:27) | South Florida 38-30 | North Texas 42-38 | | Alabama @ Missouri (09:40) | Missouri 30-27 | Alabama 38-24 | | Oregon vs. Indiana (25:24, 25:27) | Oregon 34-31 | Oregon 31-20 | | Oklahoma vs. Texas (32:03) | Texas 23-20 | Texas 20-17 | | Nebraska @ Maryland (34:52) | Nebraska 28-17 | Nebraska 24-21 | | Michigan @ USC (45:00, 45:04) | Michigan 30-23 | Michigan 31-24 |

Additional Storylines & Big Ten Notes

• Temple-Navy and Philadelphia sports misery: Entertaining aside where Doug ribs Bill about the Philly teams’ simultaneous losses—worth checking for the chemistry and banter. (03:11)
• Big Ten’s improved QB play: Extended discussion about the new depth and quality in the conference at quarterback—rare national recognition. (14:19 – 15:28)
• Locksley’s October/November curse: Hilariously bleak. (35:37)

Overall Tone & Takeaways

• The show is irreverent, highly informed, stats-driven but accessible, and often tongue-in-cheek.
• Doug and Bill play off each other with easy humor and sharp, reasoned disagreement.
• The blending of listener-friendly, big-picture playoff talk with granular team/roster analysis makes this episode a must-catch for college football fans curious about narratives beyond just the Buckeyes’ bubble.

For Further Listening

• Postgame double-dip: Hosts remind fans about two live postgame shows Saturday night for instant reactions to highlighted matchups.
• Fans can check out www.roback.com with code BAD20 for promo gear, in support of show sponsors. (43:10)