Podcast Summary: The Bill and Doug Show – “USC-Notre Dame, Michigan-Washington, Georgia-Ole Miss, Penn State-Iowa: College Football Picks”

Date: October 17, 2025
Hosts: Doug Lesmerises & Bill Landis (Blue Wire)

Episode Overview

Doug and Bill dive into picks and in-depth analysis for this week's most consequential national college football matchups, focusing on their playoff implications. The discussion highlights key trends, roster issues, coaching strategies, and the stakes for elite programs. The show’s signature: mixing insight with humor and fan-centric commentary, never shying away from challenging the prevailing Southern college football narrative.

Key Topics, Game Breakdowns, and Insights

1. Washington at Michigan

[Starts at 01:56]

Major Talking Points

• Home Field & Travel Factors: The hosts debate the significance of Michigan’s home advantage and Washington’s cross-country travel, referencing both body-clock effects (9am PT start for Washington) and teams' recent adjustments to travel routines.
• Matchup Analysis:
  • Washington’s Offense: Explosive, highly ranked nationally in several offensive metrics (4th in points per drive, 1st in first down rate). QB Demond Williams Jr. repeatedly torched most opponents—except Ohio State.
  • Michigan’s Defense Vulnerabilities: Mixed performances, notably gassed by USC the previous week ([08:24]). Loss of star defenders (Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant) possibly leading to a “step down.”
  • Key Michigan Injury: Justice Haynes (RB), fourth in the nation in rushing, is questionable after injury ([11:36]).
  • Freshman QB Factor: Bryce Underwood is talented but hasn’t shown the ability to keep pace in a shootout; limited freedom to run under HC Sherrone Moore.
  • Weather Concerns: Potential rain in the Midwest could affect offensive output ([14:32]).
• Washington’s Moment: Doug and Bill see this game as a statement opportunity for the Huskies, who are still underappreciated and unranked nationally ([16:00]).

Notable Quotes

• “Demond Williams Jr. Is going to have something to say about that. And I just think it's good for the national media… this is really a statement game for Washington.” —Doug ([16:00])
• “If they get into a, like, let's match points showdown with Washington, they can't keep up, because Demond Williams Jr. while being explosive, also does not make mistakes and does not miss.” —Doug ([14:06])
• “I don't know that I believe a whole lot in Michigan's ability to win a game like this without Justice Haynes. Like, I think he's that important to what they do.” —Bill ([14:40])

Picks & Predictions

• Doug: Washington 26, Michigan 19 ([15:50])
• Bill: Washington 28, Michigan 24 ([15:57])

2. Ole Miss at Georgia

[Starts at 20:58]

Major Talking Points

• Both Teams Overrated: Doug and Bill challenge the legitimacy of both programs’ rankings, especially Ole Miss at #5.
• Questionable Success: Each team has played tight games against middling opponents; both are mid-tier SEC teams without strong statements wins ([23:00]).
• Offensive Limitations: Bill critiques Georgia’s offense as “bad” and doubts Ole Miss can replicate last year’s front-seven dominance.

Notable Quotes

• “These are two overrated teams.” —Doug ([21:10])
• “The only things that stand out in the SEC are the Vanderbilt offense and the Oklahoma defense, but everybody else is really kind of average.” —Doug ([25:11])
• “I think George is going to win the game. I have 24-17 Dawgs.” —Bill ([25:07])

Picks & Predictions

• Doug: Ole Miss 35, Georgia 24 ([25:37])
• Bill: Georgia 24, Ole Miss 17 ([25:07])

3. Penn State at Iowa

[Starts at 26:07]

Major Talking Points

• Program Adversity: Penn State has a backup QB (Ethan Grunkmeyer) making his first start after Drew Aller’s season-ending injury, plus an interim HC post-James Franklin ([27:29]).
• Motivation vs. Letdown: Discussion about whether Penn State will be energized by the changes or checked out and confused ([31:28]).
• Iowa Consistency: Iowa, strong at home, coming off a 37-0 win over Wisconsin, but still “Iowa”—solid but unspectacular offense ([29:39]).
• Potential for Penn State Reset: Both hosts ponder if the changes at QB and HC could rejuvenate the roster.

Notable Quotes

• “Are you maybe just… not having them is just freeing a little bit… It's not the burden of like can James Franklin and Drew Aller do it. It's just Penn State now.” —Doug ([31:28])
• “I just think this is already a tough place for Penn State to play… It's a heck of a place to have to go play after your coach gets fired and everyone's pretty bummed out.” —Bill ([29:21])

Picks & Predictions

• Doug: Penn State 23, Iowa 21 ([32:01])
• Bill: Iowa 21, Penn State 17 ([32:10])

4. USC at Notre Dame

[Starts at 33:46]

Major Talking Points

• Notre Dame’s Defensive Turnaround: After a shaky first three games, the Irish D has become stingy. DC Chris Ash attributes the improvement to “just executing better” ([34:18]).
• QB Play: C.J. Carr for Notre Dame impresses with 270 yds/game, 13 TD, 3 INT ([34:39]); USC is led by a high-powered Lincoln Riley offense, even with RB injuries.
• Injury Impact: Notre Dame missing their new center Ashton Craig and top DT Gabe Rubio ([36:49]).
• High-Scoring Expectation: Both expect significant offensive production.
• Line Surprises: Hosts question why Notre Dame is favored by 9.5.

Notable Quotes

• “Notre Dame’s good. C.J. Carr’s played well. Defense is good now… I think they’re back to being the good Notre Dame.” —Doug ([34:35])
• “This is a Lincoln Riley offense. I think, like, more or less this is like what he wants to be.” —Bill ([36:02])

Picks & Predictions

• Doug: Notre Dame 34, USC 28 (USC covers the spread) ([38:15])
• Bill: Notre Dame 42, USC 38 (USC covers, higher-scoring) ([38:21])

5. Tennessee at Alabama (Briefly)

[Starts at 38:34]

Major Talking Points

• Doug’s Contrarian Streak: Doug’s been picking against Bama for weeks and plans to do it again, citing Alabama’s “mid” stats and close shaves against lesser opponents.
• Bama’s Offense: Bill sees improvement, especially with QB Ty Simpson and the Kaelin DeBoer–Ryan Grubb scheme adaptation.
• High Stakes, Low Certainty: Both coaches admit the SEC’s power vacuum.

Notable Quotes

• “I feel a little weird picking against them for four straight weeks… I actually think Tennessee’s offense can crack the Alabama’s offense by making them keep up.” —Doug ([39:22])
• “Ty Simpson I think is a good quarterback…I'm not going to pound the table for them to be a national title contender, but someone’s got to win the SEC.” —Bill ([40:53])

Picks & Predictions

• Doug: Tennessee 30, Alabama 23 ([40:59])
• Bill: Alabama 35, Tennessee 24 ([41:06])

6. Utah at BYU ("The Holy War")

[Starts at 42:45]

Major Talking Points

• Series History & Stakes: BYU has won two in a row, but Utah dominated prior. Both are off to big starts, but hosts are more optimistic about Utah's legitimacy.
• BYU Skepticism: BYU’s #15 ranking is questioned; resume built on tight victories and a less impressive schedule ([44:44]).
• Statistical Matchups: Both teams top-15 in rushing play percentage; expect a "low possession, physical banger" ([46:05]).
• BYU’s Grit: Kalani Sitake keeps his teams winning even without a star QB.
• Utah’s “Statement” Opportunity: Bill and Doug see this as a motivational must-win for Utah, with possible implications for Kyle Whittingham’s swansong ([50:56]).

Notable Quotes

• “I think maybe Utah’s somewhat significantly better here.” —Doug ([48:25])
• “But also at some point, the worm turns. So I like Utah 31-22. Not a blowout. But I actually really like Utah minus the 3 1/2.” —Doug ([52:09])
• “This could be [Whittingham’s] last Holy War as well. I wonder what that does for Utah in this game if they think that's the case.” —Bill ([49:59])

Picks & Predictions

• Doug: Utah 31, BYU 22 ([52:09])
• Bill: Utah 24, BYU 21 (BYU covers the 3.5 point spread) ([49:25])

Other Games Mentioned

(Time-permitting, but with less analysis):

• Tennessee at Alabama
• Georgia Tech-Duke, Nebraska-Minnesota
• Louisville-Miami (Friday)
  Doug encourages focus on the main playoff-relevant matchups, highlighting the rising stakes week to week given the new 12-team playoff format ([53:13]).

Memorable Moments & Quotes

• Bush Hopping Anecdote: Doug and Bill trade stories about “bush hopping” and social customs as a metaphor for playing at Georgia, adding lighthearted flavor ([21:10]).
• On SEC Mid-Tier Debate: “Do you want to pick Alabama or Texas A&M? Those are your choices.” —Doug ([40:53])
• On College Football’s Popularity: “12-team playoff is elevating an already great sport to even new heights. Second most popular sport in these United States of America.” —Doug ([53:13])

Summary Table: Picks at a Glance

| Game | Doug’s Pick | Bill’s Pick | |------------------------|-----------------------|-----------------------| | Washington at Michigan | Washington 26–19 | Washington 28–24 | | Ole Miss at Georgia | Ole Miss 35–24 | Georgia 24–17 | | Penn State at Iowa | Penn State 23–21 | Iowa 21–17 | | USC at Notre Dame | Notre Dame 34–28 | Notre Dame 42–38 | | Tennessee at Alabama | Tennessee 30–23 | Alabama 35–24 | | Utah at BYU | Utah 31–22 | Utah 24–21 |

Tone, Style, and Fan-First Spirit

Doug and Bill balance stats-driven insight with playful banter, always prioritizing fan understanding and big-picture college football drama. Their skepticism of “Southern CFB bias,” willingness to call out overrated teams, and joy in the sport’s wild unpredictability anchor every segment.

For further Ohio State talk and more, join the next episode after the Buckeyes' Wisconsin game.