The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: A Crazy 49ers Win, Baltimore’s Alive, Week 18 Stakes, and Guess the Lines With Cousin Sal
Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons
Guest: Cousin Sal

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the wild Week 17 NFL action, focusing on a dramatic 49ers win, the playoff stakes for Week 18, standout team and player storylines, and the weekly tradition of "Guess the Lines" for the upcoming NFL slate. Simmons and Sal bring their signature humor, banter, and sports nerdery, analyzing outcomes, scenarios, and implications for fantasy, betting, and fandom. The conversation is as much about the emotional rollercoaster of football viewing as it is about X’s and O’s.

Key Discussion Points

1. Wild 49ers Win, NFC Playoff Picture, and High-Stakes Matchups

• Opening Thoughts:

  • Both hosts just watched an “absolutely awesome Bears-49ers game” and are energized by the wild implications for Week 18 (03:33).
  • ESPN gets two high-stakes Saturday games: Carolina vs. Tampa Bay (NFC South crown) and Seattle vs. Rams (NFC West title and No. 1 seed).

• Playoff Scenarios and Chaos:

  • Possible 8-9 division champ (Carolina or Tampa).
  • Potential for new/newish QBs and coaches as top NFC seeds—highlights the parity and absurdity in this season.
  • Bills/Josh Allen possibly forced to win 4 road games to reach the Super Bowl.
  • The possibility of San Francisco never leaving the Bay Area for the entire playoffs and Super Bowl (05:44).

• 49ers-Bears Recap:

  • 49ers defense repeatedly called out as suspect ("Collinsworth said pass rush five times… It felt like they could never get a stop" Simmons, 06:10).
  • Brock Purdy remains unflappable after a pick-six; offense finds ways to move even with injuries (08:35-09:50).
  • Bears: the "TV MVPs" of the season for consistently wild, close games; Caleb Williams’s play is erratic but electric (07:31; 07:45).

Quote:
“Today was great. Football is the best.” (Sal, 03:52)

• Caleb Williams’s Case:
  • Mahomes-like escapability, strong stats, cutting down on mistakes, in MVP conversation (08:13; 11:05).
  • Both hosts ruminate over his ceiling and the Bears' “team of destiny” vibes (14:30-15:22).

2. Fantasy Football Heroes and Goats

• Christian McCaffrey:
  • Universally hailed as a league-winner once again, first-ballot fantasy hall-of-famer (12:06-13:42).
  • Anecdotes about the pain of the fantasy game and questionable nominations for "guy who won everyone’s league" paints the struggle.

Quote:
“This is one of the greatest fantasy guys we've ever had...” (Simmons, 12:58)

3. Other Notable Games and Teams

• Eagles and Bills – Frustrating Yet Dangerous:

  • Eagles keep winning ugly; fans never satisfied even after clutch wins (16:03-17:42).
  • Bills' Allen misses wide-open two-point conversion attempt—hosts debate risks/rewards for going for 2 in Week 17 context (18:06-20:03).
  • Both teams viewed as talented but maddening: dangerous but unreliable.

• Jacksonville Jaguars – Suddenly Frisky?

  • Overcome adversity for the first time in what feels like forever; have assembled a talented, resilient squad in the AFC South mess (33:28-35:38).
  • Comparison to Atlanta, discussions over aggressive trades paying off.

• AFC South and Tanking Teams:

  • Giants and Raiders subplots—tanking, front office arrogance, lingering NFL draft questions (28:11-30:21).

4. Betting, Futures, and Shakies Game Jokes

• Guess the Lines:
  • Segment returns Week 18, with both hosts playfully agonizing over the unpredictability.
  • Tangents on teasers, first-round futures, what teams are “tease-safe” or “parlay anchors”—spoiler: basically no one (48:40-49:51).

Quote:
“We are going to have… It’s going to be impossible to make money in the playoffs because who do you trust?” (Sal, 48:55)

5. Player Awards and Notable Stats

• MVP Race:

  • Stafford slightly ahead, but skepticism abounds about QBs on lower seeds winning (24:33-25:09).

• Division Champs with Losing Records:

  • Todd Bowles could claim his second 8-9 division title, a rare NFL feat (40:32-41:00).

6. Comedy, Annoyances, and Parent Corner

• Officiating Rants:

  • Symposium on ambiguous NFL rules—roughing the passer, helmet off, pass interference, taunting, and continuation (57:26-61:10).

• Parent Corner: (96:34)

  • Sal’s son’s well-timed illness spares him an early morning wrestling commute.
  • Fantasy heartbreak and the curse of “pick ’em” decisions between two mediocre WRs, recounted with agonizing humor.
  • Simmons laments his declining fantasy glory, recalling his all-time great 2007 roster.
  • Simmons’s kids obsessed with Stranger Things, leaving Dad feeling old and out-of-place compared to their excitement for the show.

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• On the chaos of the playoff picture:
  “We might have an 8, 9 division champion. Carolina or Tampa... We could have three new coaches as top three seeds. We could have Josh Allen in the situation of having to win four games in a row on the road to win a super bowl.” — Simmons (04:16)

• On Caleb Williams:
  “Caleb is a roller coaster ride, but he's really fun to watch... He's Mahomes esque with the angles... I think Drake may has a great arm. Caleb seems like he even has like 2%, like more frozen ropey than Drake, I would say.” — Simmons (07:45)

• On Niners offense post-pick-six:
  “Normally, that is like throwing the black cat on the TV or walking under a ladder... But I never felt that way with them. Cause it's so easy for them to get first downs…It’s a very strange team and it just seems like they moved the ball.” — Simmons (09:08)

• On Philly’s frustrating win streak:
  “They won for a month like that. Basically. Now they have two games where he didn't complete a pass in the second half. Then they won the game. Like, just outrageous to me.” — Sal (16:44)

• On Allen’s two-point miss:
  “If that's any other quarterback, we're talking about how the quarterback choked. Allen's been great. I know he's banged up... The guy was wide open... if you're the best quarterback in the league, you got to make that throw.” — Simmons (18:06)

• On McCaffrey’s fantasy impact:
  “This is one of the greatest fantasy guys we've ever had. Right. When he took them. Like, yeah, you could have. You could have McCaffrey. Yeah, he'll get hurt. Week three, whatever, we'll check it out.” — Simmons (12:52)

• On Tanking Front Offices:
  “I think it's an arrogant stance by the front office of any team that's supposed to be tanking. Like, oh we're not good at hiring coaches, we're not good at signing free agents but get us our draft pick because that's where we're going to turn it around. It's like, no you're not. Cut it out. Just play the game. Play to win.” — Sal (30:01)

• On weekly rules confusion and officiating:
  “Driving the QB into the ground on a sack, being either a penalty or not a penalty, depending on how the linesman's feeling on this specific play. I've just given up.” — Simmons (57:30)

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Bears-49ers Recap, NFL Playoff Scenarios: 03:33–11:59
• Caleb Williams Analysis: 07:45, 11:05
• Fantasy Football / McCaffrey: 12:06–13:42
• Eagles-Bills Analysis: 16:03–21:06
• Jags/Colts, AFC South Weirdness: 33:28–36:38
• NFL Rules and Officiating Rants: 57:26–63:27
• Guess the Lines, Week 18: 67:27–93:06
• Parent Corner: 96:34–105:45

Episode Tone and Style

The episode is classic late-season Simmons & Sal—manic, funny, a little nostalgic, and just cranky enough about all the dumb elements of fandom and sports gambling. Analysis and snark go hand-in-hand, (“peak of the year for us…13 and 3 is pretty impressive…" – Simmons, 27:26) as do beloved tangents and fantasy heartbreak stories.

Final Thoughts

Those tuning in get a whirlwind NFL wrap-up—colorful, detailed, and relatable, especially for fans and degenerates navigating the chaos of late-season football. The episode’s blend of real football insight, comedy, nostalgia, and sharp takes on football’s absurdities (and boyish delight in a truly bonkers sport) make it a perfect primer for the Week 18 drama and beyond.