← The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Bill Simmons Podcast
A Crazy Good NBA Rookie Class With J. Kyle Mann, Plus Tua’s Cleveland Adventure, and NFL Week 7 Picks With Joe House
01:34:08
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- [00:04]
Bill Simmons
When did making plans get this complicated?
- [00:07]
Joe House
It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the.
- [00:10]
Bill Simmons
Secure messaging app that brings the whole group together. Use polls to settle dinner plans. Send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets. Mom 60th and never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end to end encryption.
- [00:24]
Joe House
It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone.
- [00:27]
Bill Simmons
Learn more@WhatsApp.com the Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We are also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network. New rewatchables coming on Monday. Last one for Redford month. It is a quiz show. An awesome movie nominated for an Oscar. Brian Koppelman has been requesting it for at least five years, so he's finally getting his wish doing it with Koppelman. That will be on Monday. If you missed sneakers last Monday, really, really fun. One broke down. Ben Kingsley's running for a good five minutes. So if you want Ben Kingsley running takes, get ready because I had them. So you got that. And then Sunday night, Prestige tv final episode of Task. Right after it ends, you can listen or watch to me and Rob Mahoney and Joanne Robinson break down everything we thought about not only the final episode, but the season itself. Um, I am in Boston, Massachusetts. Right now, it's cold. I feel like a wuss because I grew up here on the east coast. I spent My first 32 years here. Now when I come back and it's cold and windy, I'm just freezing the whole time. I've really, I've incorporated this into some of my sports gambling, particularly with one game we're gonna talk about later with Joe House. Uh, when you go from the warm weather to the cold, this is why I moved to Southern California. And when I come back, I just feel like a wuss every time. Anyway, great to be back. First, J. Kyle Mann. He's coming on to talk about rookies because we talked about a little in the over under podcast, but not enough. I feel like we needed a whole segment talking about how great this rookie class is. So that's first. Then Joe House comes on. We're doing our over unders postmortem. And then after that, Ringer 107. That includes our single favorite game of the 2025 slate so far. So that is all. Next. Let's take a break. And then pro champ. This is the Bill Simmons podcast, presented by FanDuel. If you're betting on the NFL, come on. FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in. Live your way so you can set your own lines on just about anything. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid instantly. I've been in Boston, Massachusetts. Recently. Guess what I did use? FanDuel super fun. Download the FanDuel app or go to FanDuel.com BS to get started. Must be 21 + President select states 18 + in D.C. kentucky and Wyoming GAM prom 800 gambler visit rg-help.com, call 888-78-9777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Conn all right, taping this late Thursday afternoon, East coast time. I'm on my second coffee today. Dunkin Donuts. Not a sponsor. I don't think they've ever. I don't know why. I don't know how much Dunkin Donuts I need to drink before they sponsor something. But anyway, Dunkin Donuts, you think by.
- [03:40]
Joe House
Now, I mean seriously, I mean it makes sense honestly.
- [03:42]
Bill Simmons
Those ungrateful jerks, they should something. I should have the Dunkin Donuts studio by now. Instead, I have the Aspiration Dome in my back house now. Aspiration Studios J. Kyle man, what's up? Nobody knows more about the draft classes and the rookies and I mentioned this on Tuesday's pod that I really love the rookies this year and it's so different than last year and we did a little Dylan Harper stuff and we did some flag stuff obviously and some kadippo but I really wanted to deep dive. I thought this was worth an entire segment. I want to start with Harper as the second pick. I talked about him Tuesday that he just jumped out of the TV to me immediately like holy shit, this guy's ready to be something now size, he, the body, the lefty, real patience already seems like he could play off the ball or with the ball and I was just blown away. And I don't know whether that was too small of a sample size but what did you see with Dylan Harper?
- [04:40]
Joe House
Well watching him in this context and we can get to Ace Bailey I guess in a little bit too it's a similar thing is that they they've just played in a crowded elevator offense last year Rutgers. I didn't even, I didn't blame the coach. I didn't blame any of those people. They had a they had major roster turnover that was super heavy and none of their teammates really drew any respect. So the thing that Popped to me immediately when I'm watching Dylan in this first. In these first few games is just.
- [05:05]
Bill Simmons
He.
- [05:05]
Joe House
He had a play where he had a. He got a back cut for a wide open layup. And I was surprised they didn't call timeout and just be like, dylan. That's what a wide open layup off of a cut feels like. Like, right.
- [05:16]
Bill Simmons
He had to enjoy this, savor this.
- [05:18]
Joe House
He had to be. Cause I. You just didn't. I was looking back at his. His Synergy stats, and I was like, he never got wide open cuts. And, you know, Ace was always playing in a crowd, too, so I think he's probably enjoying that. But there's a little bit of some of these guys who are like, crazy, crazy downhill talents. You mentioned his poise in the paint. Number one. I don't think that. I was thinking back about it, I was like, I don't think that I have watched a more talented scoring guard with like. Like, poise in the paint since probably Shay in 18. Like, Shay was just a layup monster. And I think Dylan is. Dylan's a little bit different in that Shay was a little more angular, slithery. He's added some of that physical stuff, you know, the big shoulder bumps. I don't want to piss off OKC fans, but, you know, that stuff he's developed. But Dylan already kind of plays that way. He's really, really physical. And they already had some plays where he was. He wasn't even cutting. He was almost catching it. Like, he was on, like, a jet sweep and he'd get into the lane and he's so physical. And Wimby draws so many eyes that you can already just kind of see, you know, Will he be able to knock down open jumpers? You know, that'll be a thing. But he's going to be able to roam and add a lot of value even if he's not there. Like primary. Even if he doesn't get a whole lot of primary, you know, point guard reps for them.
- [06:32]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I think the overthink for me this summer was just thinking about the right roster around Wimy and all right now you have Fox and Castle and Harper. None of those guys are knockdown shooters. And that was kind of the glass half empty. And then you watch all those guys with Wemby now, and you're just like, holy shit, athletes. And just like blue chippers. Right? And the thing I think the thing I didn't really fully think about with Harper was how ready he was athletically, because we've seen guards come in and either they're skinny their first year, Even somebody like Cade. I thought Cade had. I know his teams were bad, but he also seemed pretty choppy. Like we had some actual questions about, huh, what is this? Is this somebody who could be an awesome lead ball handler? Harper. My questions were, can he shoot? Can he play up the ball? It's just clear he's going to be on the court for them. And I actually think they're going to have a pretty interesting numbers problem for them with Fox and with Castle and with Harper. They're going to be able to juggle those minutes, but they have more guys after that. So I, I think like ceiling wise, that's why we all went. Oh, two of us went over on the Spurs. House went under, but I went way over. I, I really feel like if he's going to be able to give them 28 to 30 minutes a game, maybe that's too high. Maybe let's say 25, whatever, somewhere in that 25 to 30, but at a high level. That's like, they just didn't have anybody like that last year.
- [07:57]
Joe House
Is there a decent chance that they're the best team in Texas this year? I mean, I don't remember what you guys play.
- [08:02]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, we talked about the division odds for them and about how Houston is like up here at 52 now. We got to talk about Reed quickly because I watched some preseason with him two nights ago and he's just firing now. He's like, van Buet's gone, I'm fucking firing. And the bench was really into it and there was a little different demeanor to him. And so that made me a little worried about my under. But yeah, I think the ceiling of San Antonio with Wemby, if he's a top five guy, Houston is not going to have a top five guy. Right. So if the pieces around him are good, I don't know, I think they're going to be really hard to play. You have that many athletes, plus you have rim protection, plus you have some size. You can bring him with him. Now they have a lot of answers.
- [08:47]
Joe House
Wimby is just flat out distracting when you're trying to. I was like trying to watch the rookie. Any game you watch with him on there. I sent you a clip of. He was like in a, in a ball or in a handoff again in that Jazz game. And he was on the other side of the screen defender on the other side of Nurkic, and he just reached into the frame and stripped the ball off of. I Guess it was Ace. And Ace had this look like, what. What just happened? Right. He's just. Yeah, he's just a ridiculous distraction. But, yeah, I think it's very much in play that they're going to be so athletic on the perimeter, man. And in terms of, you know, thinking about their roster for. For Dylan, if you're in this position. And this was. The argument that I made at the time was just. I'm. I'm just thinking of it simply like, does if I have a chance to get a player, a talent like Dylan, does he fit with Wimby? That was all I was like, I'll figure out everything else later, because do.
- [09:38]
Bill Simmons
I have these two guys? I could figure out the other 10 later.
- [09:41]
Joe House
Yeah, yeah.
- [09:42]
Bill Simmons
So my answer is already, he fits in.
- [09:45]
Joe House
Yeah, yeah. I mean, it's just I. I think the thing with guys who have the ball in their hands is you always kind of have to start from this first. The square one is like, are you going to be hurried? You know, I know you like Yaka Chonas. I did, too. I'm sure we'll talk about him, but that was something that, like summer league, you know, guys like, guys that come into the league who are very used to hitting first, you know, like, Luca is like the all time example of. He came in and he was like, yeah, I'm going to punch everyone first. Yeah, Dylan is the same kind of thing. It's just like he never seems hurried around the basket, and he's just really angular and clever. I was noticing too, he has some of that. You see some of those guys shoot layups, like high glass layups off the wrong foot. Dylan does this thing where he'll go wrong footed and wrong handed and he'll like, get under and just kind of get away from guys. He's just really sneaky and really crafty. Yeah. And the great thing for them is that they don't have to put a ton of pressure on him to, like, they can really bring him along slowly and get all the value without getting the waste that might come with, like, dumping too much on him too early.
- [10:44]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the crafty, because I think that's the thing that really resonated with me. They had one play. It was. I mean, granted, it's preseason. Who cares? But he'd one play where he was on the ball on the right side and he's a lefty right. And he kind of went baseline and did this kind of herky jerky back and forth thing. Got lower to the Rim, then did more herky jerky, and then finally got a shot off. And I was like, wow, this kid's, like, 19. Like, that's. That seemed like a move you make when you're, like, 26. I feel like I probably underrated last June how important it was that they got the number two pick, because it was so weird with the Rutgers thing was. And I know you guys. You talked about. You and Tay talked about it nonstop. Like, the Rutgers thing was so weird. It was almost like the ceiling in the basement. You couldn't even come up with what it was because it was, like, that was just too weird. But clearly, when you talk about guards coming in the league and being good right away who have the ball a lot, it's pretty unique. And then the other thing is, if Castle goes up a notch, now you're talking about, okay. And they have all these trade pieces, so I'm with you. I. To me, like, them versus Houston, I think it's a lot closer than the odds they had. They're eight wins lower with the overrunners in Houston. I think it's way closer than that.
- [11:59]
Joe House
Yeah. Houston, I mean, Houston has a little experience on him in a couple spots, but I'm sure, you know, the amen love. And I'm. I'm right along with everybody else. I mean, I love watching Amin Thompson. I mean, playmate center. That's the way I'm thinking about it. But, like, he. I'm sure Steph Castle was over there thinking, I got something for this guy. You know, I'm sure he's like, I was the rookie of the year. You know, I. It's just been interesting how big of a gap there's been. And, you know, like, Castle brings a lot of the playmaking stuff, too. It's just interesting what the shadow of Wimby affords them on offense and defense. Like, I was watching that Miami game, and there was a play. There was a particular play where Wimby, he was doing his thing where he causes big guys to just, like, you know, look up and go, no, I'm not going to do that.
- [12:42]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [12:43]
Joe House
And you could just see all of the other guys on the perimeter just basically become free safeties who have, like, five steps on the ball. So, like, there was one where I think it was like, it might be Khalil Ware who was just stuck. And Khalil Ware is gigantic. I don't know if you ever seen him in person. And he was like, I mean, I can't go up with this. So he turns and Looks and you could just see that. I can't remember who intercepted the pass for the spurs, but he just had an easy run to go intercept it. So they just have a lot of, you know, having Wimby.
- [13:10]
Bill Simmons
Just a really good point.
- [13:12]
Joe House
The conversation in a lot of different ways.
- [13:14]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, yeah, that's a really good point. Cause then the other piece of that is when you have Wimby behind you, you can gamble way more and be way more aggressive. 25ft from the basket. Cause you have some sort of protection. They're down to plus 3, 70 to win the division. I still think, I think that I.I mav6 to one's probably a reach with how long Kyrie's out, but yeah, I think that division's a little more open. The other thing I'll say with Harper and this is like whatever. This is a classic Bill Simmons ridiculous point. He carries himself like a star and you just like, you kind of notice him immediately. There's certain guys like that where you just see him walking around and there's for a 19 year old, like, he's handsome. He's filled out already. And it just. I felt the same way about, about Thompson on Houston.
- [14:01]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [14:01]
Bill Simmons
Which I was like, I don't know about these guys. And then you kind of watch him on a court and it's like, oh yeah, that guy's got it. And you just kind of. Sometimes there's just these guys that are like, oh yeah, that guy's got it. And the way he carries himself. He's in this weird situation. Right. He's not starting point guard. He's on Wemby's team. You would think he would be like a little. But he's not. He's not like that at all. He's cool. So that. And then we didn't even talk about flag yet. When we're talking about rookies jumping like flag, flag. As. As this all purpose Swiss army knife. What do we need, guys? Oh, Davis isn't playing tonight. Fine, I'll play power forward. Oh, should I just play point guard tonight? I don't even know how you could assign a dollar value to what he brings in as a guy in a rookie contract. But this is what he's doing. He's like a max contract guy, basically. But they got him for 1.8% odds in the lottery. Unbelievable.
- [14:53]
Joe House
He's just ready to roll right off the assembly line. I mean, I got to the point around the draft where I reached this point where I was thinking about this fall and I was like, well, Blah, blah, blah. And I was just like, what are you talking about? Like, I, you know, step out. I was just like, what? Like, every single step of the way. And I've done a few shows with Mav's people and I. And I'm just trying to just give them an idea of maybe what's coming from. From having watched him in high school and stuff. And it's like, he just. He's not stagnant in any way, shape or form every single step of the way. And I was like, I'm just done underestimating him. And, you know, you're talking about he has a little ways to go in terms of, like, his setup moves and getting to the basket, but he's also very clever and crafty about the things that he does know how to do. If you watch him, he's really good at, like, giving a bump with his back and then turning and face. And he just doesn't dance a lot with the ball wastefully. His shot looks good. He came off of a couple.
- [15:45]
Bill Simmons
Shot looks really good.
- [15:46]
Joe House
Yeah, he came off a couple of, like. I don't know what they reflects or whatever type of screen it was, but he was moving, you know, left to right and hit a hit, a great shot. But you just watch him. It's the same kind of thing, too, as Harper is. They played a lineup. Their lineups are going to be really, really interesting. They played a lineup that was like Cooper, D, dlo, Clay, PJ and lively. And it was there because the Hornets went ahead on their first unit, if I'm not mistaken, and they put in that lineup and they just surged back and it was. It was just really fun for a minute, you know, and say what you want about dlo, if you control him. I loved all the stuff you said, and I'm with you on it, but it's like, if you can kind of control what DLO is, Cooper is already mature enough to kind of guide an offense like that.
- [16:27]
Bill Simmons
So, yeah, it's a little like Zion, right, where there's going to be situations where it's like, I guess we're playing him at center. I guess he's our point guard now. He's going to be all over the map. The one thing I've noticed from watching him at Duke last year to even in the preseason stuff, it feels like he's more sophisticated offensively with some stuff like going to the basket, shooting, you know, like shooting off, like, the wrong foot. Some of the explosive stuff, like, it just feels like he's added some stuff to his bag that I wasn't positive he'd have. He just. He felt way more closer to Tatum than I was expecting. I'm not talking about Tatum last year before the injury, when he was one of the best sport players in the league, but probably like year two, year three, Tatum, when he was just starting to put together some off, off, you know, some dribbling, dribble, move to the basket stuff. First year, he was like, basically in the corner, just. We were basically begging him to take the ball. Then he started adding stuff and flag offensively. Seems like he's like where year three Tatum was, which I was really surprised by. But did you notice that?
- [17:32]
Joe House
I mean, he's. He's very. He. He and Tatum are in kind of different. On different paths with. Like, I think that. And I've thought this for a while that Cooper is ahead of him in terms of his, like, spatial sense and his passing and things like that. But I do. I think that Tatum was a little wigglier with a live dribble at the same age. So it's just kind of like they're coming from different size, and it may three more inches, and at 25 years old, you know, maybe they'll end up at a similar spot. But I just like. I like all the different ways they can use him. He gets a little. He did get a little. He got a. He did this at summer league, too, where there were a couple times where you could tell he was really enjoying the show. And I'd never seen him do that before at summer league. He was kind of, like, looking around, you know, all the players are on the front row. He makes a couple risky passes and plays. He threw a couple behind the back passes in that preseason game. Granted, preseason summer league, they're both kind of unserious. You're experimenting, you're tinkering, things like that. But he made a couple of plays like that. I was like, what. What exactly is he doing there? But I don't know, man. I just don't put anything past him anymore. Like, I think he's. He plays within himself. He's just a right play machine. He's also a really smart. You know, the defensive stuff has translated immediately too, so.
- [18:42]
Bill Simmons
Oh, and the competitiveness is almost crazed. Like, he's trying in these preseason games where you're like, dude, settle down. Yeah. The reason I brought up Tatum, what do you think he averaged in year two for the Celtics? Playing 31.1 minutes a game.
- [18:57]
Joe House
Oh, that's tough.
- [18:58]
Bill Simmons
How many points a game do you.
- [18:59]
Joe House
Think he had what that would have been? 17, 18, 19.
- [19:03]
Bill Simmons
Second.
- [19:04]
Joe House
18 19. God, I don't know. 15.
- [19:09]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. 15.7.
- [19:11]
Joe House
Good guess.
- [19:12]
Bill Simmons
And he was making one and a half threes a game, 45% field goal, and 2.9 free throws a game. And then year three, that 2020 season that ended up getting stopped by Covid, but that was when all of a sudden the free throws are close to 5.23.4 points a game. Flag seems at least like a little ahead of year two Tatum, but not where year three Tatum is yet. And he's not going to have the same size, but he's a maniac. And as you said, he's like. Tatum always had a question of like the is when he's gonna learn to make the right play? What's he gonna do? And then he finally started to unlock that as the 2020s went along. And then last year I thought he was really good with that stuff. Flag seems like he has it immediately.
- [19:58]
Joe House
I think this Mavs roster, there's just some funny, ironic stuff going on with the fact that they have this insane collection of like elite play finishers, you know, Gaffer and AD and lively elite or borderline elite lob threats. Clay is one of the best, best catch and shoot. I was thinking today, I was like, it's kind of like that episode of the Twilight Zone where the guy has all the books but no glasses. It's like they, they, they have. He has this insane, like, resources and assets at his disposal. And it's like they just, if they just had Kyrie, it's like, where are they going to bend and warp the defense with some of these bigger lineups. That's why they get popped so much when they had DLO in there. Because it's. AD might have one of the bigger questions of just kind of like how it's not necessarily naturally implied, like the lively AD and Gafford thing, how's that going to balance out? Because they can put some lineups out there that could be pretty interesting.
- [20:48]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Ironically, AD feels like he's could be trade bait to get something. Then they'd. And they'd probably be a little more interesting. But I like the way they are. They're such a weird team. I think they're going to be really hard to play. And then having Flag just be able to guard dudes in the perimeter. And it's already like incredible to watch him on defense, fighting over screens, jumping through like he's already one of the, you know, one of the higher end defenders. We have Edgecomb. Neither of us have watched. Right. You haven't seen much. Yeah, yeah, I think that. I think we're fine with that because it seems like he's going to be an energy guy the first year Knipple.
- [21:27]
Joe House
Let's do it.
- [21:27]
Bill Simmons
And the Hornets in general because there's a couple other rookies on that team too, including Kalkbrenner, who seems like he's going to play like real men. What pick was he?
- [21:38]
Joe House
Oh, did he. He was. I don't know what I'll.
- [21:40]
Bill Simmons
Is he like, end of first round early?
- [21:43]
Joe House
I think he was real. Yeah, he was. I think early.
- [21:46]
Bill Simmons
He's going to play actual minutes.
- [21:48]
Joe House
Yeah. Yeah. I'm not surprised. I'm not surprised by that. I. I mean, I do. I do think that, like, in the. In a really competitive scenario, he's probably your, like, rotation big, but I mean.
- [21:58]
Bill Simmons
On this team, he's a 40 minutes a game center because they don't have any centers.
- [22:02]
Joe House
Well, Rob and I were talking about this last night and I was like, they. They threw some lineups out there. They threw out a Bridges, Lamelo, Miller, Kahn, and I think. I think Colt Burner might have been out there, but it was. The ball was humming. I mean, it was Lamelo. I was joking about this on Twitter that, like. Well, first I would say. I was telling Rob. I was like, I think this is going to be one of my league pass teams because it's just. They're just.
- [22:25]
Bill Simmons
I'm in and.
- [22:27]
Joe House
But Rob was like, well, that. He was just like, dude, that front court is just one of the worst. And it's true. It's going to be. They are going to hemorrhage easy points, like, on the glass. They're not going to. They're going to have a heart. They're just going to give up a lot of easy points. But Lamelo, man, I mean, he just. I go back and forth between. You know, I've defended him a lot. Last night I was watching, I wrote down, I literally wrote in my notes, the Hornets should find a way to trade Lamelo. And then he just rattles off five plays that no one else can make. So it's just kind of that team. And it kind of makes you wonder if. If Kahn. I would love to give a lie detector test to some of Lamelo's teammates because Khan's used to playing a very regimented, like, right play. We do this. This is the sensible I. This level of wildness.
- [23:11]
Bill Simmons
He's in a freelance jazz band now, basically. I agree with you. I think they're going to be an amazing league pass team and I like their four. I don't really care who the fifth guy is. I think the four will be fun to watch. I have no idea if they'll get stops and Knippo is who we thought he was. Like he's in the right spots, he can, he's a dangerous three point shooter already. He rebounds. They're going to actually need him to rebound. So no surprises. We were all in on him. Ace Bailey was a surprise to me and we talked about this a little on Tuesday. But the size and the ease that he's getting his points, I don't know if he's going to be able to do anything else, but it seems like him and then Trey Johnson, ironically who taken right after him. Those guys are just going to be able to score immediately, which is no small, no small thing for rookies. Rookies don't just come in and throw up like 25 in their third game. Like especially at the non point guard or like the small forward, whatever. Aces. I don't even know. But any surprises with Ace other than what you already said about the telephone booth thing?
- [24:16]
Joe House
Yeah, I mean it's just. He's coming in and this is the, these are the things we knew he could do. I mean if he has space and you let him catch and shoot. This was that, this was, this was the case at Rutgers is he's going to score, man. I mean like he just, he didn't have the space and he didn't have the scheme to do that. I mean I'm sure that, I'm sure that Will Hardy knew immediately what to do with him and that he comes out there and you know, the, the other thing for me too is, I mean you were talking about comparing him like the early kd. I think that's everybody's temptation. Usually I've heard people say like Rashard Lewis, I like that. I probably should have included that. But he's a little more like an MPJ type of run something for him, let him be a shot maker. Granted anytime he dribbles the ball, I think he had one play where he tried to attack a closeout. His just awareness of help and things like that, it's just a little ways away. He's. He's just not quite ready to do that kind of stuff.
- [25:05]
Bill Simmons
But can we agree this is the perfect team for him? Although I guess they don't have the right kind of point point guard to set him up.
- [25:10]
Joe House
But are the Jazz a perfect team in any way.
- [25:12]
Bill Simmons
Well, just like he's gonna play minutes and get, and get shots and mistakes and.
- [25:17]
Joe House
Yeah, for sure. And they have a lot to gain by him even being wacky and, you know, letting loose and being messy. And I was going to say another thing too, is that I think Walter Clayton Jr. Might be better than Keonte George. Like right now. I'm sure I was like, I bet he was watching summer league and being like, fuck, he's just, he just looks really smooth and steady out there.
- [25:35]
Bill Simmons
He's probably older. Is he older?
- [25:38]
Joe House
He might be older than me.
- [25:39]
Bill Simmons
He might be. I mean he's like 23, but he's.
- [25:41]
Joe House
You know, I like him. But yeah, with Ace, I mean, everything that he does is just his superpower is the one step thing. And that's what I was saying going up to the draft. It's like if he has a step to go after a chase down block, he'll do something incredible. If he has a step to go catch a lob. It's just if he has the room to show off that athleticism, if you let him jump and get to his shot, he's going to make it. So yeah, he's going to have some moments this year. I wasn't surprised.
- [26:03]
Bill Simmons
Well, all we care about is whether somebody's a fun league pass team when they're a non playoff team. And in that case I will test them out multiple times, try it out, we'll see how it goes. Trey Johnson too. Just House. House is all in already. He's just a professional scorer, so. Fears at number seven. That one worried me a little. Like he's definitely, they're definitely giving the car keys and have him, you know, he's. Who knows? It's early, but that one, I don't know. That seemed pretty high for him at number seven. And especially it does feel like there's like a distinct drop off between those first six guys in the seventh pick. And I don't know if he makes it or not, but. Did you see anything with him?
- [26:48]
Joe House
Nothing that really like. I mean, for me watching him in the first couple preseason games and watching him, you know, in summer league, it was like you see all the positive. It's just in a serious game, I mean like he can get to spots. He's very fast. He's, you know, has. He's a pretty good lob thrower. It's just, is he going to be able to shoot, pull up threes? Is he going to get mercilessly picked on on defense? Because you know, that Threshold is pretty, pretty cruel no matter how good you are. And then. But I was going through, you know, early in the season, you do this thing where the first. You try not to overreact to the first couple returns. Because Fierce was somebody I was lower on. I think I had him in the 20s and then because of those things and I'm just kind of going line by line and I'm like, I had him kind of low, didn't I? But then you just look and you're like, all these guys are kind of showing signs that they're going to be good. Yeah. And even, even young Hansen for, for Portland, I would. That was one that I was lower on. It might ultimately be just like a lot of people got duped by the lack of information. And Portland just had a crazy advantage with the tape because apparently the tape was just really hard to get on Yong and it was really limited on synergy. So you kind of had to be a detective and go get that stuff. But yeah, this class is looking like it's going to be. It's going to be good. I mean, you don't want to overreact, but it's looking good.
- [28:00]
Bill Simmons
The fears problem, that's been a bust type of profile. Right. Those guards that they don't have a ton of size, they're fast. But like, what's their. What's their calling card? So we'll see with them. Just zooming through. I saw Yong. I called him Yang for the entire over earners podcast. I'll get it down. But he's. He's clearly something.
- [28:21]
Joe House
Yeah. Yeah.
- [28:23]
Bill Simmons
I don't know what he is, but it's like I just signed me up for more. Clayton looks like he's going to play right away. And then this Barringer on Minnesota seems like he might actually play and fits the profile of somebody who succeeds on a winning team. Right. Long energy, athletic rim runner, Shop Walker. Don't ask him to do anything else. But they kind of needed a guy like that. So I feel like he's going to play. And he. And oh, and then we watched a little Maliuch on Maliac. Maliach Malawatch. Malawatch.
- [29:00]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [29:01]
Bill Simmons
We watched some of him on Tuesday night and it was interesting because he was playing against DeAndre Ayton and they're kind of very similar bodies and just like he's. It was funny. Like they got rid of deandre Ayton so they could basically take the next Andre. But he really tried and he can second jump, which I think when you look at somebody on that size if you have that one jump and then kind of the play's over for you as other side, like he was able to get back up, so there's something there. I liked him in college, but I thought he fit in in an NBA game. Have you seen him?
- [29:33]
Joe House
Yeah. I mean, my worries with him kind of started. I worried about some of these faster bigs, like jumping, getting to the ball quicker than him. I think for him it's going to be a question of just learning how to like wager in a smart way whenever he's like in, you know, in space with a really fast like learning how to stay down and let his length just be his strength. Because the more he like goes for things, I mean, Brook Lopez mastered that. There's a lot of guys who have. He's a smart kid. I could see him doing that. But. But yeah, he's. I mean he's even bigger than eight and.
- [30:05]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [30:05]
Joe House
I mean, I think he's. He's longer than eight and I'm pretty.
- [30:08]
Bill Simmons
Positive, like kind of a little longer. But they're around the same size.
- [30:11]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [30:13]
Bill Simmons
The only other guys I wanted to mention. And then you tell me who your favorite random guy was. There might be something there with Jace Richardson and I didn't have him on my bingo card, but I'm just, I'm kind of monitoring that one because he's unlike anybody they have in that roster. But I'm just intrigued to see if he plays. And then Gonzalez on the Celtics, you know, they keep throwing darts at the board of these athletic wings who can't really shoot but really try hard. Right. They kind of failed with Jordan, Walsh, Gonzalez I think they've been impressed by and I think he's shooting a little better than they thought. And he's like an absolute maniac. I mean he's actually crazed and I'm wondering if he might play. But those were the two that jumped out. Who's jumped out for you at post lottery?
- [30:59]
Joe House
I was going to say the Gonzalez thing. I was going to second that. Everything that I've heard from them is a lot of enthusiasm. Yeah, they're really, really loving him that they, I think they saw his upside as higher than, than consensus. And he is a maniac. He kind of reminds me of that just like pesky, annoying, high motored guy that like OKC would take. And there's been some, I mean we talked about it before that like OKC and Boston have some overlap in their personnel preferences that you've kind of been able to see. But yeah, I mean I really liked him a lot. Nick Clifford is a guy that I've gone to bat for and out on. I mean the, you know, if the Kings were going to, if you were going to just siphon any little positive thing for the Kings, it's that I really do like Clifford and I think Keegan Murray's good, obviously. And I do think that Devin Carter is going to be worth keeping around. I think those three guys I was, I was joking about when, when Clifford was playing well, I was. It's going to be the shame when Sacramento punts him for like Kuminga and in January, but let's hope they don't do that. But he just, he just looks like an adult out there. He can come at you from a lot of different ways. He can really pass the ball. He's a really good movement shooter. I just think he's going to be able to play for them really quickly, so.
- [32:09]
Bill Simmons
Well, now he gets to lose from. Learn from Russell Westbrook.
- [32:13]
Joe House
I could not believe that.
- [32:14]
Bill Simmons
Learn how to lead a team.
- [32:18]
Joe House
Great mentorship in store here for him. Yeah.
- [32:22]
Bill Simmons
And then. Oh, the Nets is the last thing. Have you watched them?
- [32:27]
Joe House
Yeah, yeah.
- [32:28]
Bill Simmons
The rookie smorgasbord. Did anybody jump out?
- [32:31]
Joe House
I mean, Wolf actually looked better in the preseason games than he looked in summer league. To me, you know, the impression that I've gotten is that they feel pretty good about the shooting upside of, of Demon when he comes back and then. But, but Wolf, Wolf looked really comfortable. He had one play, I think where he was attacking Drew Eubank. I mean, I might as well stick with it. I had him pretty high. I had him higher than Moloch, I think, I think I had him 13 and Molo watch 14. But no, I mean he, he attacked the basket at one point and to the right and came back to his left with it and then shot like a lefty soft left handed shot in the lane. It's just all these Brooklyn guys, man. I mean if you want to talk about like the shooting challenge of a lifetime, I mean they drafted four guys who like to be on the ball and they all are, are questionable shooters. So I guess you, if you get maybe one or two out of the four that can get to the point where they make a shot. But the team, I agreed with you all from the over under pot, I mean it's just, it's just an abject disaster. So.
- [33:28]
Bill Simmons
All right, that's our preseason rookie blink test. I guess the big headlines are Harper, Harper and Flag specifically, like really as a combo might be a pretty Special twosome to get two guys in a draft to have a chance. I think both of them have first team, all NBA potential. Flag probably is a safer bet. But Harper definitely, I mean, and you think, like, San Antonio putting him with Wemby together and just that being your foundation, like, you're pretty good if you can keep Wemby on the court. But in general, this draft seems like really like a possible A plus draft. Right. When we're talking about 21st century drafts, like, this is. I think it's going to be one of the storylines of the year.
- [34:11]
Joe House
So did you, what about Yakachonas, though? That's. I thought for sure you would. Did you, did you have any kind of takeaways on him?
- [34:17]
Bill Simmons
I mean, listen, I, I, I went all in. He had one bad summer league game and everybody made fun of me. And guess what? I'll be vindicated because that guy went seven picks later than he should have, and it was fucking stupid. And I don't know how Miami pulled that one off, but, yeah, he's, he is who he thought he was. He's fun to play with. He's going to be really devastating and picking rolls, and I think he's going to play right away for them. I don't know. With this hero being out for 25 games, 30 games. They're actually, they. He might actually get real minutes for them, and we're going to find out almost. Right. He's going to get thrown in the fire. If you're talking about thrown in the fire, guys, he's probably one of the few that a team's actually going to need. I think, especially if Rozier, I guess it's just whatever the hell happened with him.
- [35:03]
Joe House
Yeah, but he looked like he had real chemistry with Ware when he was out there. It's just kind of like it's, you know, you want to say the Pajimski thing because he's got the reddish blondish hair. You want to do like the aesthetic bias thing where you're like, oh, that looks like that. So that's.
- [35:15]
Bill Simmons
He's a better passer, though. He's, he's, it's close.
- [35:18]
Joe House
They're both pretty creative. I don't think it's a ding on either one of them to say, like, you know, they're both kind of in the same. But he's going to be dared to shoot. But he's young. I don't, you know, if you're riding him really hard as your primary guy, I think you're going to come away frustrated. But if he's just kind of moving within the teeth of their offense and. And he's got good hands on defense too, I don't know. I think he's just going to be a nice rotation guy for them, you know, so.
- [35:41]
Bill Simmons
All right, before we go, give us 45 seconds on why Reed shepherd is the X factor of the 20, 25, 26 season. Because this was your guy. You were all in on him being good.
- [35:53]
Joe House
You know, as another white guy who's 6 foot 1 and from Kentucky, I felt like I took a personal interest in Reed Shepherd. Shocker there.
- [36:00]
Bill Simmons
But you threw the name Mark Price around, was thrown around at some point. You threw a couple big names around with him last year.
- [36:06]
Joe House
I did. I don't think he's as wiggly like as a pull up shooter as Price. I think that was off, but I think he's more of a. I wrote something before the season started where I was just talking about how they might use him. People are just assuming he's just going to be pounding the ball the way up there at the top. I think if they have him be super, super aggressive with his shot, just be that. Start with that prep, that proposition and then if he doesn't have a shot initially, he's running off screens and things like that, you just. I know they want him. Like three point attempts is a great stat for them. They're not as obsessed with the makes. Like if he gets them up and establishes that audacity for their offense, that's something that they can use. And you've seen him. I mean, he's being hyper aggressive. He's not afraid. He's a really good connected passer. I just think it's going to take some time before they can like really lean on him. But man, yeah, he's. I mean, he did. He turned the ball over immediately, twice in a row when I turned the game on the other night. But he kind of. He steadied the shit. But that's. Yeah, man. I mean as long as he's aggressive from three and not a liability on defense, I think that's. That's a good starting point for them with him. Yeah.
- [37:09]
Bill Simmons
One thing I noticed with them, they just put him in the right corner and you have Duran at the top and you have Thompson kind of floating around being Thompson and then just shepherd, you just. He's just pulling the defense. You have to. You can't leave him because he's got the quick release.
- [37:26]
Joe House
He'll stand up by the hash mark. Sometimes they'll have him like post it up there like 38ft away. And it's like you gotta take a step towards him.
- [37:33]
Bill Simmons
But yeah, he's got that rare thing where he. If he gets the pass right, he could just flick a three.
- [37:38]
Joe House
The no dip.
- [37:39]
Bill Simmons
Like, he doesn't. Yeah, he. There's like five guys in the league like Curry, obviously, I think he probably invented it, but there's five guys in the league who could just do the quickies. So they got that. But anyway, I thought, I made me think, like, I wonder if they're just going to use him as an. Almost as an off the ball. You have to worry about this guy over here. Guy to basically open up the rest of the space for them. I still don't understand how their offense is going to work with guys who just. I don't want to say ball stoppers, but I'll say ball stoppers. I want to see how. Who's the glue guy. That kind of combines everything. Is a big question I have with them.
- [38:13]
Joe House
I think they'll try to go get Dinwiddie. I feel like Eme would kill Dinwiddie. I can't. I can't imagine that relationship working. But yeah, no, I mean, I think the last thing I'll say about the Rockets, if you were going to give one positive and I said this in this piece, is that I think the guys who are like making decisions off the catch, that is one area they upgraded. If you're talking about Jalen Green and Dylan Brooks and you're talking like you get Durant. Durant's better pastor. I think Shepard's a better passer, just a little smaller. So, I mean, that's one thing that you can work with. But I think that initial like on ball to off ball toggle thing is something that he can do now. So. Yeah.
- [38:49]
Bill Simmons
All right, come in. What's your next thing for the ringer?
- [38:53]
Joe House
We're starting up draft stuff, wrapping up a gigantic project that I'm hopefully going to be able to announce soon. And then. Yeah, so we're just going to start covering the college season and the rookies.
- [39:02]
Bill Simmons
Awesome. Good to see you. Thanks.
- [39:04]
Joe House
You too.
- [39:05]
Bill Simmons
This episode is brought to you by Uber Eats. Every football season, the same thing happens. The game somehow makes everybody really hungry. Quarterback scrambles clearly a sign for breakfast burritos. Yeah, turnover. Suddenly dessert at 2pm doesn't sound so crazy. Wing formations, well, those can only mean Buffalo wings. As if they're ever not in play. Even the goal posts start looking suspiciously like French fries. It's almost like football. Sending the message to eat more food. Yeah. The good news, Uber eats makes those cravings easy to satisfy with game day deals all season long. From wings and pizza to chips, drinks, and even last minute grocery runs. Don't sleep on those. You'll find savings on all your favorites delivered straight to your door. Order now on Uber Eats. All right, Joe House is here. It's Thursday afternoon. I'm on the east coast. We've already done like four and a half hours of content this week. But just in a normal week, if our picks had been going as badly as they had been. Maybe I just bump you for the week. Oh, House was on the NBA over under spot. I'll just get somebody else for this week. But we had a really good week left. We were four and own. Verno was own one on our picks.
- [40:16]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. Trial separation would have made sense, but buddy, when we fucking it's good. We have to stick with it.
- [40:21]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. We got to stick together. Let's talk NBA over unders the aftermath really fast.
- [40:27]
Zach Lowe
Okay, great.
- [40:27]
Bill Simmons
Because fanduel, I talked to them because they do the super boost every year.
- [40:33]
Joe House
Yeah.
- [40:33]
Bill Simmons
And it looks like this is going to be the super boost and they're going to be pushing this starting on Friday. Here we go. The Milwaukee Bucks, a team that you, me and Zach all agreed on as locks at 42 and a half.
- [40:49]
Zach Lowe
Triple lock.
- [40:50]
Bill Simmons
Triple lock. 45 plus wins for the super boost because we needed to. We need something. Golden State 45 plus. We all were over on them at 47 and a half. So we're getting a little value there.
- [41:01]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [41:02]
Bill Simmons
And then OKC, who's over under with 62 and a half wins. We all love that. That's 60 plus. So Bucks 45 plus, that's gonna be the hardest one. Warriors 45 plus and OKC 60 plus, that's gonna be around plus 415 plus 420 range. And with the parlay boost token gets bumped up into the plus 5, 3540 range. However it nets out. So that's the boost and we need the bucks is basically how this needs to go.
- [41:31]
Zach Lowe
So that the question is who's going to fuck us? You think it's the answer would be the Bucks.
- [41:36]
Bill Simmons
Well, that's. They would have to overachieve three wins beyond their or two and a half wins beyond their over under number.
- [41:43]
Zach Lowe
We think that 45 is probably the right number, especially with some developments that we're going to see coming in the east.
- [41:49]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. We had them in the 4 to 5 to 6 range in the east. And, you know, I was thinking about some of the picks we had after and some of the arguments we had and, like, what would be your do over? Because for me, I think I. I'm not positive I was in the right spot with Orlando. With the under, it was 50 and a half, and I think I just. I had too many overs, and now I'm looking at that going, why did I go under on those guys? Saying, I didn't feel good about it to begin with.
- [42:19]
Zach Lowe
I'm queasy about Orlando. I feel like we. I'm not that concerned about that. It depends on 100 health. Well, why did that team with all those young guys have bad injury luck last year like those guys?
- [42:33]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [42:33]
Zach Lowe
Franz Wagner is young, Paula was young, and Suggs is young, and Suggs is not starting the season on the basketball team. Right.
- [42:40]
Bill Simmons
Well, that's why I backed up.
- [42:41]
Zach Lowe
Right. Yeah.
- [42:42]
Bill Simmons
So I. I just.
- [42:43]
Zach Lowe
I don't think that we were in the wrong direction in terms of Orlando, the one that I personally would do over San Antonio, because the way that the west is shaping up. You and Zach both went over on San Antonio. I went under. I don't like going under based on a thesis that that depends on a little bit of injury bad luck, but I did it. But that I would do. I would do that over because I'd like to be on the side of just rooting for the spurs to be awesome and for Wemby to be awesome all season.
- [43:13]
Bill Simmons
I thought you were going to be a coward and actually flip your pick on that, which, by the way, Zach did. What did he do? He added a lock. Or Zach had one. He did a 180 on one of his picks, which I thought was pretty funny.
- [43:26]
Zach Lowe
It's okay. That's our first time together.
- [43:28]
Bill Simmons
Well, the biggest tragedy of our podcast, we were very, very, very, very, very, very, very, very hard on the Sacramento Kings. Very hard. Zach.
- [43:41]
Zach Lowe
Tremendous job by Zach Lowe.
- [43:43]
Bill Simmons
We just were carving them up, and they got spiteful and mad and upset that we did that. And they signed Russell Westbrook the next day, and they deprived us of the ability to talk about how. How fucking crazy of a signing that is for over 100 podcasts. It's like, why are you doing that? That would have been five minutes of content. How dare they.
- [44:03]
Zach Lowe
Tremendous. Because they told us, just suck it. We're not giving you any. Anything else to add to your highly, you know, inappropriate snark from their perspective.
- [44:13]
Bill Simmons
Well, here's the other thing they did. Keegan Murray, who's starting out the season, hurt I mean, he'll come back. They gave him $140 million for five years. Oh, my God.
- [44:24]
Zach Lowe
How do we miss this? Can we do the worst contracts? The NBA worst contracts next week.
- [44:29]
Bill Simmons
We do it after the All Star break every year. And I'll tell you something. Keegan submitted his resume for top 10.
- [44:37]
Zach Lowe
Right up first week of the season. We got a resume in.
- [44:40]
Bill Simmons
Those are my least favorite contracts. When it's a guy who can't be an All Star and you're paying him basically right under that $30 million a year. Those are the ones like from Patrick Williams and the Bulls when they gave him 90 million for five.
- [44:55]
Zach Lowe
Yes.
- [44:56]
Bill Simmons
That range basically from Patrick Williams to Keegan. Murray is like the fucking graveyard of bad contracts.
- [45:02]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. And it's the team not having a firm conviction, so they kick the can with a shit contract.
- [45:10]
Bill Simmons
And he's one of those. He seems fine on paper guys.
- [45:13]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [45:14]
Bill Simmons
You watch him and you're like, oh, hypothetically, I like him. And there's some other people like this. I probably like Jabari Smith more than most, but Jabari Smith, for the most part, has been a hypothetical guy versus an actual guy.
- [45:28]
Zach Lowe
Well, this is really.
- [45:29]
Bill Simmons
Since he has size and I can play him as a stretch five. Keegan, I can't.
- [45:33]
Zach Lowe
We should just give that category a name. I think it's the Emanuel Quickley. The annual Emanuel Quickley. That's the one. Like, that's the contract.
- [45:42]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. The Raptors have like five of these contracts. They're like tweener contracts.
- [45:46]
Zach Lowe
Yes.
- [45:48]
Bill Simmons
They're like a notch under an All Star spot, but you could probably get somebody to make $4 million a year who could put together 85% of the same stats. That's where the issue is. That's where comes in. That's why I didn't even like that Jovic contract. But anyway. Yeah. So other than. As we head toward opening day, I think those are the biggest NBA stories that happen.
- [46:12]
Zach Lowe
Fun.
- [46:12]
Bill Simmons
We'll see how fun.
- [46:13]
Zach Lowe
Good stuff.
- [46:13]
Bill Simmons
Let's talk NFL. We did well last week. We were 4, 0. I like the slate this week. You said you only like three games. We have this new pact where we don't talk at all about the games beforehand. So I have no idea what games you like. And I was just going to go through the stay aways first and stop me if any of these were your games.
- [46:33]
Zach Lowe
Okay, great.
- [46:36]
Bill Simmons
I don't want any part of that. Lions five and a half over the Bucks.
- [46:40]
Zach Lowe
Oh, interesting. Why not?
- [46:43]
Bill Simmons
Because I don't know who's playing receiver for the Bucks.
- [46:46]
Zach Lowe
Okay.
- [46:47]
Bill Simmons
I don't know who's playing defense for the Lions. I don't want to bet against Baker Mayfield ever the way the heater that he's on. But I also don't really want to bet on the Bucks when I don't know who's playing. The line is in the Vegas zone for a reason and it just felt like a stay away to me so.
- [47:01]
Zach Lowe
Early in the week. I was plowing into the Lions. I have a ton of Lions exposure. They have a tremendous record off of a loss. The combination of Dan Campbell and Jared Goff. I lost some of my enthusiasm. I'm saying it right now. I'm not going to buy out of the position. But the Brian Branch suspension is bad. That's bad for a team with all of the injuries in the secondary. That dude is heavy lumber and for him to be out plus the secondary now. I do still think for, for the Buccaneers this is the moment where it finally catches up with them. But it seems like Mike Evans. Mike Evans is practicing and I'm starting.
- [47:39]
Bill Simmons
Them in the fantasy league I care the most about. Also, there's cheap touchdown potential for them too. I. Stop it.
- [47:46]
Zach Lowe
I'm not. So I. It went from a love for me into like a like and you know, I. Again, the Brian Branch suspension was a. Was a. I'm not going to use the word. I was going to use a bummer.
- [47:57]
Bill Simmons
Very fun game to watch and I look forward to belatedly doing a buck Giant overs. Yeah, I feel like on Sunday I'm going to do a Bucs tease with the over and probably just out of pure boredom. We'll see.
- [48:11]
Zach Lowe
I think the thing that I love the best about when you are in Boston, it's really dangerous. The fanduel.
- [48:20]
Bill Simmons
Oh my God.
- [48:21]
Zach Lowe
Slow. Oh my, my, my, my.
- [48:23]
Bill Simmons
Is it dangerous or is it glorious? Why did you. You used the wrong ous word in.
- [48:28]
Zach Lowe
The eye of the beholder. I mean, the text that I'm getting from you, you just sitting there firing, firing, firing. How long are you in Boston for?
- [48:37]
Bill Simmons
I'm. I'm only here for a couple days, but I, you know, I'm. The problem is I'm leaving. I'm leaving Saturday and there's going to be some Runway bets as well. A couple of those. Well, the funny thing is like we're taping this before Pittsburgh, Cincinnati today, which is just the definition of a just stay away. It's a Thursday night. It looks like a classic bad spot for the Steelers. I don't want to bet on The Bengals. But I'm sure I'll talk myself into something just out of pure boredom. Plus there's baseball. A little interspersing. It's great. Washington and the Cowboys in Dallas I think is a stay away for us.
- [49:15]
Zach Lowe
No, thank you. Please, let's stay away. I think Dallas.
- [49:18]
Bill Simmons
Are you nervous about that game? Because that's like one of those. Are you kidding me? Yeah.
- [49:21]
Zach Lowe
You're in trouble, quarterback.
- [49:23]
Bill Simmons
He is in trouble if you lose that.
- [49:25]
Zach Lowe
Incredible. Not the, the.
- [49:26]
Joe House
The.
- [49:26]
Zach Lowe
The past defense for Washington is not setting the world on fire. They let Caleb Williams go right down the goddamn field for the game winning field goal. I did not enjoy it.
- [49:37]
Bill Simmons
It's kind of a must win because your next three are at Chiefs, Seattle and then Detroit.
- [49:46]
Zach Lowe
I think we can get Seattle at home. But the other two, those are losses. Put them in the lost column now. I mean Washington's, you know, this is.
- [49:53]
Bill Simmons
They're going to have to battle hard.
- [49:54]
Zach Lowe
To get to 9 and 8 and be in the playoff conversation.
- [49:57]
Bill Simmons
Are you. How worried are you on a scale 1 to 10 about my bet that I have against you and every other person you know who likes Washington?
- [50:03]
Zach Lowe
I already took the 500 bucks and put it in a sock. Was I supposed to say the amount out loud?
- [50:09]
Bill Simmons
Well, we did. It was $500 a person.
- [50:12]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [50:13]
Bill Simmons
I got an extra two wins because the pats were plus seven and a half or seven and a half over under nine and a half.
- [50:19]
Zach Lowe
Those were the totals. I mean, that was it. We played it that way.
- [50:22]
Bill Simmons
Where it could get lucrative is it's win by win against Chang. The Pats have the easiest schedule the rest of the way.
- [50:29]
Zach Lowe
It's outrageous. It's outrageous.
- [50:31]
Bill Simmons
The Pats could just stumble into like 11 and six out of nowhere.
- [50:35]
Zach Lowe
So the funniest thing that would ha that could possibly happen is the Titans beating the Patriots this week. Except for it's Rabel's revenge game. So I think the right way to play it is Patriots by 55 points. I'm going to be in the alt spread market looking at that.
- [50:51]
Bill Simmons
Well, when you said the funniest thing that could happen, I thought you were going to tell the story of the dinner we had with Chang and Nathan.
- [50:57]
Zach Lowe
I'm not telling that story, Capo.
- [50:59]
Bill Simmons
On Saturday night.
- [50:59]
Zach Lowe
No, because you can't say the restaurant's.
- [51:01]
Bill Simmons
Name if we talk. I'm not going back there. I'm happy to say it.
- [51:04]
Zach Lowe
I love that restaurant. I want to go back there.
- [51:06]
Bill Simmons
Well, they need to apologize to us.
- [51:10]
Zach Lowe
They wrote us already.
- [51:12]
Bill Simmons
Did they apologize?
- [51:13]
Zach Lowe
It was an all timer. He said they apologized. It was an all timer.
- [51:18]
Bill Simmons
They, they brought bottles of wine and didn't tell us the price and tried to jack the price out us like, like we were like, I wouldn't ask about price.
- [51:28]
Zach Lowe
We just didn't do enough sort of inquiry tell us.
- [51:31]
Bill Simmons
And then they brought a dessert wine that we didn't ask for. Then charge us for that. I've never had. I've been going to restaurants my entire life. I've never seen that happen.
- [51:39]
Zach Lowe
Well, the dessert wine is like just completely unnecessary. It is not, you know, for us.
- [51:45]
Bill Simmons
They were like bringing us like dessert wine because Chang was there. No. Decided to bring us a bottle and charge it to us.
- [51:51]
Zach Lowe
The cherry on top.
- [51:53]
Bill Simmons
If I, if I said what the price of the bottle was, people wouldn't actually believe it. Don't say, I'm not going to.
- [51:58]
Zach Lowe
Don't say any price.
- [51:59]
Bill Simmons
I'll never go back there. So I have no problem. We'll see if it's.
- [52:01]
Zach Lowe
I love it. I'm going back. They have my business. I love that spot.
- [52:05]
Bill Simmons
I hate. You know, when I, when I used to work as a waiter and bartender, we had this one, one waiter we worked with and it's like, you know, it's standard. If it's six people or more, it's a standard. Like you add the tip. Right. I think it was 18% in the 90s. But you would tell the table. It's like the right thing to do. It's like the karma thing to do is to be like, hey, just so you know, the tip has been included. And this one waiter we worked with would never tell the tables, hoping he would get double tipped.
- [52:36]
Zach Lowe
Was it the J Bug?
- [52:38]
Bill Simmons
No, the jbug would never have done that, ever.
- [52:40]
Zach Lowe
The jbug is a man of integrity.
- [52:42]
Bill Simmons
I don't mean jbug would never in a million years have done that. To the contrary, all time karma guy. This other dude we had and he wouldn't tell the tables and it would, we would get so mad. It was like this fucking terrible that you did that. Well, I got 36% instead of 18. Congratulations, fuck face. I just think when you do stuff like that, the karma comes back. So we'll see.
- [53:04]
Zach Lowe
That's fine.
- [53:04]
Bill Simmons
We'll see what that plays. Anyway, back to the football game. Broncos. Giants. Broncos -7 at home against the Giants. That is two crappy offenses.
- [53:18]
Zach Lowe
Yep.
- [53:19]
Bill Simmons
I don't want any part of this game in either way. I have no idea who's going to win. I don't ever want to bet On Bo Nicks again. Well, that's. And I'm not putting them in a tease anything.
- [53:27]
Zach Lowe
The problem is it's them at home.
- [53:28]
Bill Simmons
The.
- [53:28]
Zach Lowe
The funny thing is it's basically the same number as the beginning of the season. The Titans at the Broncos landed. It was. It was over the summer seven and a half. It moved up to eight and a half and then the Titans covered. But you know, it's another rookie quarterback on the road and there is a lot of reason to be skeptical about the success.
- [53:48]
Bill Simmons
Great defense. Like who takes unnecessary chances? I don't. I just. I'm just scarred.
- [53:54]
Zach Lowe
We're sorry. It's good. It's fine.
- [53:57]
Bill Simmons
Last one that I looked at and I was intrigued by the 49ers -1 1 1/2 against the Falcons and especially Falcons coming off a Monday night game. Great win. They're home, they're feeling great now they're on the road. Bosa's out, Warner's out. Who knows who's actually playing for the Niners. And it just felt like an awesome spot to be like, oh yeah, of course. And my shit detector's going off. It's a Sunday night game. I don't trust the Falcons. I just can't. I can't get there.
- [54:29]
Zach Lowe
Definitely don't trust them on the road.
- [54:32]
Bill Simmons
Just period. Their defense is first against the past. It's fourth. On third downs, it's seventh. And sacks like all the stat signs are like you should probably bet the Falcons here. But I'm not. Needs to stay away.
- [54:43]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, I agree with staying away. I, I will end up playing this game as Sunday night rolls around and I will be. I'm going to play the Niners just because we, we. We established the rule for ourselves. So we don't play the Brown. The, the. The Falcons on the road.
- [54:58]
Bill Simmons
Probably do the Niners or. Yeah. Or some tease that takes the Niners to four and a half or above. Something. Something goofy. We'll see. Like by Sunday Kittle might be playing.
- [55:08]
Zach Lowe
Right.
- [55:09]
Bill Simmons
You know, like they might have a couple receivers that we don't right now. We don't know who's playing, do we?
- [55:13]
Zach Lowe
Is Purdy playing? We don't know.
- [55:15]
Bill Simmons
That's why. That's why they can't be. I think that's worth monitoring. If that's just line stays under three and they get some guys back. Falcons outdoors night game California. Yeah, that feels a little bit tasty. So one other one. I didn't know if it was a stay away or not. Well, there's two actually. One is Texan Seahawks. Okay, Houston plus three and a half in Seattle. And initially I was like, this looks like a, like a smash spot for Houston because I really like their defense. And I don't think the Seattle home field advantage has been there the last couple years. I mean, the record backs it up. I don't know what happened to it. Houston's defense, first in the league, scoring fifth passing, seventh rush. Seattle's offense has looked good the last couple weeks, but maybe Houston can disrupt them. And then you look at the Seattle defense spot, the stats, the stature, some of the stuff they're doing against Houston's like, really shitty offensive line. As Lombardi always said, offensive lines don't travel. You're putting them in Seattle with a loud crowd and Seattle second against the run third, qb, hit second, hurries, third sacks. Just feels like, oh, I have Houston. And then a quarter in, you're like, oh, my God, they can't box Seattle. So I think it's a stay away unless you feel strongly.
- [56:40]
Zach Lowe
No, I don't. I have a little on the Texans already because the three and a half is just too rich for me. And you mentioned how bad Seattle's been at home. The thing with Seattle, that I can't forgive them is that loss against Baker Mayfield and the Bucks, like that was a situation that, that Seattle, if you're a serious team, you need to take care of business. That's a, that's a, you know, seating in the playoffs kind of game. The implications are there because Seattle already lost at home to the 49ers. So, like, these are the teams that you have to beat if you're going to be, you know, in a serious place come playoff time. But you're, you're, you're right in terms of, you know, we can't bet on the Texans with that offensive line. We just can't do it.
- [57:24]
Bill Simmons
If we were 20 and 10 in Ringer 107 right now, I might have talked myself into it. But we need wins. There is one parlay that I did stare at for a while. If you take Houston to plus seven and a half and you take the under up to 47 and a half, I don't see 48 points in this game with the two defenses unless there was some weird turnover, special team shit. I just don't think.
- [57:47]
Zach Lowe
Just play it all the way up. Play it at full teaser. Texans up to nine and a half and whatever the total is for the full six.
- [57:54]
Bill Simmons
Well, the 47 after getting like seven extra points for the over. Under 47 half's a nice number. Cause then.
- [58:00]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, key numbers.
- [58:01]
Bill Simmons
That's a lot of totals. Yeah, that's a lot of points. So anyway. And then the other one that I think is a stay away. But I'm willing to be talked out of it just because I probably overrate this team. Saints plus five and a half in Chicago. Is this one of your three?
- [58:17]
Zach Lowe
We're playing this one, buddy.
- [58:19]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [58:19]
Zach Lowe
Let there be no doubt me.
- [58:21]
Bill Simmons
And let me move that one up.
- [58:23]
Zach Lowe
Okay.
- [58:23]
Bill Simmons
The other one I was looking at from a tease standpoint, Jacksonville and the Rams. And sadly, this is in London, which has become. We're 03 in London games. Jags are plus three. Ostensibly are going to have a home crowd. Who knows? Rams flying there. Puka is questionable and probably not playing. And if he plays, he's on one leg. That makes me nervous. The Jags are just goofballs. But the spot I was thinking that made me feel better about this is a parlay. Ortiz taking the Jags up into the seven and a half eight range and making the Rams have to beat them by two scores late. Because I'm not positive they can. But the London game scares me. So what do you think of that one?
- [59:09]
Zach Lowe
We're not playing it. It's. It's. We have. There's a reason that we have a rule against playing the London games. There's a. I mean, we're. We're just not playing it.
- [59:17]
Bill Simmons
Broken the rule for three straight weeks.
- [59:19]
Zach Lowe
Big, big dumb asses. So having said that, I do think the Jags are the correct side. And directionally, you know, putting them in some. There's no reason that you can't sit on the Runway Saturday afternoon and. And fire off whatever you want on that. We just can't put it into this contest under any circumstances.
- [59:39]
Bill Simmons
You wouldn't even put that. Jags plus eight and a half.
- [59:41]
Zach Lowe
Fuck. No, no, no. If they're playing in London on Sunday morning, there's a reason that we have a rule.
- [59:49]
Bill Simmons
So the Chiefs minus 11 half. At the Raiders, they're minus 700. And I think for any parlay, they have to be in. Rice is back. Bowers. I think the Raiders without Bowers is just. I'm just not afraid of them. I know there's some history with these two teams. The Raiders have beaten them weirdly, like maybe two times over the last four years. But this, to me feels like. They break Rasheed Rice out of the garage. They drive him around. They do little wheelies outside in the street. They zoom it down. They rev the engine a little and they probably take their foot off the gas in the second half. But I feel very comfortable throwing them in some sort of park.
- [60:31]
Zach Lowe
Okay.
- [60:32]
Bill Simmons
On the minus 700. Yeah. We do a three teamer.
- [60:36]
Zach Lowe
Great. Sure.
- [60:37]
Bill Simmons
I feel great about putting them in it.
- [60:39]
Zach Lowe
Great. No problem.
- [60:41]
Bill Simmons
No chance. The Geno and the Raiders. Nothing. Anything scare you?
- [60:45]
Zach Lowe
No, no, no.
- [60:47]
Bill Simmons
Sheep's kind of quietly up to the number three offense in the league by EPA now.
- [60:51]
Zach Lowe
Catastrophe is the only thing that scares.
- [60:53]
Bill Simmons
Me with that pretty bad. They. They barely beat Tennessee last week who then immediately fired their coach and the coach's dad. Callahan tire fires.
- [61:05]
Zach Lowe
Now the Raiders kind of beat Tennessee's ass. Tennessee like, try to show some life in the fourth quarter. Tennessee is so.
- [61:11]
Bill Simmons
Callahan tire fires is no longer our guy. Callahan finished 4:19 against the spread for his career. Is the number one worst against the spread in the history of football. Since they've been tracking spreads, it's amazing.
- [61:23]
Zach Lowe
That I think I only bet against them half the time.
- [61:26]
Bill Simmons
At what point in your life do you brag about that? Like when you're like 65 years old and somebody's like, I heard you were a coach. Yeah. Coached an NFL team. Really? What team? Tennessee. Coached there for a year and a half. Pause. You know, I have the worst record ever spread. Nobody's ever done worse. There were 23 opportunities to bet for or against me. And if you bet against me, you won 19 of the 23. It's a record. It's 80% of the time you bet against me, you won. It's never happened before.
- [61:59]
Zach Lowe
He's a record holder.
- [62:01]
Bill Simmons
That's it.
- [62:02]
Zach Lowe
You know, I'm a record holder as a. As an NFL head coach.
- [62:05]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. I hold the record. Really? What record? Well, it's a weird one. Also, like, how did Hugh Jackson not have the record?
- [62:15]
Zach Lowe
You put that question into one of the threads. I did. Anybody answer it? There's no way that.
- [62:20]
Joe House
That.
- [62:21]
Zach Lowe
That Hugh Jackson did very much better. A little bit better maybe, but not very much better.
- [62:26]
Bill Simmons
4:19 is just incredible. I'm in awe of it.
- [62:29]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, it's like when.
- [62:30]
Bill Simmons
Like when we were growing up and they would show Bob Beeman's Mexico City jump, right? And you'd be like, oh, my God, he jumped four feet further than everyone else. How did he do that? 4:19. Really amazing. Great stuff.
- [62:44]
Zach Lowe
Outer limits of human achievement.
- [62:46]
Bill Simmons
That dumbass Tennessee owner group. They fire. They fire the gm. They fired Rabel. They hired this guy. They. They and ran Carthon. They fire him. They. They. They've had four firings in two years.
- [62:58]
Zach Lowe
What an amazing. I think we need to look up.
- [63:01]
Bill Simmons
They should have run and Dave as their minority owner get him shots. Shots there he could own a piece.
- [63:08]
Zach Lowe
Of the tight disrespectful. Because Sacramento at least they were lighting the beam just a couple years ago. It wasn't that long.
- [63:15]
Bill Simmons
Six months.
- [63:16]
Zach Lowe
Yeah but that was a good team. And they were. They took the. The warriors to seven games like that. You know when. And when's the last. Tennessee was the last. Good. When Mike fucking Vrabel was the head Coach.
- [63:24]
Bill Simmons
They went 12 and five with Mike Vrabel.
- [63:26]
Zach Lowe
Yes.
- [63:27]
Bill Simmons
Good coach.
- [63:28]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. This decade.
- [63:30]
Bill Simmons
Speaking of the Titans. Pat's Titans. It's in Tennessee. It's the first game after a fired coach and it's. It's been. Drake made national Appreciation week on the ringer for sure. What do you mean on the ringer? On everywhere. Watch espn. I had. I flew to Boston on Wednesday and there I had ESPN without the sound just on the TV and it was like 17 Drake May segments. I mean these advanced stats for him are unbelievable. Why are you so. Hey, listen, I'm sorry you got the wrong quarterback from the draft. And then he's two years older and that he's not as good as Drake.
- [64:05]
Zach Lowe
May see the Patriots in the AFC championship game. Then we can have that conversation.
- [64:09]
Bill Simmons
Fair enough. Thunderstorms and wins for this game. And yet I am not deterred. I think the Pats have to be in a. In a parlay with us.
- [64:17]
Zach Lowe
I don't. I don't want to do it. I want. I don't want to do it. I want nothing to do with it. I'm. I'm literally in the alt spread market right now for that game on the idea that Vrabel would like to win by 20 or more points. And if you want to lay.
- [64:32]
Bill Simmons
You mean like a poured on game.
- [64:33]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, poured on game. Why wouldn't he pour it on? But here's the problem. It is the new coach situation which is not favorable.
- [64:41]
Bill Simmons
That didn't work. Didn't work last year.
- [64:43]
Zach Lowe
I'm just saying in general I think.
- [64:46]
Bill Simmons
With the new coaches last year favorable situation.
- [64:49]
Zach Lowe
But the thing that. That they're terrible.
- [64:51]
Bill Simmons
Tennessee's terrible. They're terrible.
- [64:55]
Zach Lowe
The New England Patriots put the fucking ball on the ground five times against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The New England Patriots beat the crap out of the Steelers up and down the field. But put the goddamn ball on round. I just am not there yet altogether. I can't trust the team. I will put a small bet on.
- [65:13]
Bill Simmons
Unfortunately for me I have two picks that I get to make myself. I get two. This is true. We split two and you get one.
- [65:21]
Zach Lowe
You're right. You're right. You're right. You are the boss.
- [65:25]
Bill Simmons
You didn't even make a case against that. You're just like, I don't know. They put the ball in the ground five times a month ago. Congrats.
- [65:31]
Zach Lowe
They did that.
- [65:34]
Bill Simmons
Did you feel like Packers, Cardinals should be in any sort of parlay or tease? Packers minus six and a half in Arizona.
- [65:39]
Zach Lowe
No, no.
- [65:39]
Bill Simmons
Marvin Harrison, I'm assuming because he had a concussion. Third string running backs for Arizona. Maybe Jacoby Brissette again.
- [65:46]
Zach Lowe
They showed some life against the Colts. Now what that tells you is some more about the Colts, which we'll get to soon enough than. Than. Than about the Cardinals. But the Cardinals are playing. You know what I mean? Like, I just. With the Green Bay team is too schizophrenic for me. They left the back door open. I mean, we were almost in a situation where Joe Flacco was going to have the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to either tie or take the lead. Come on, that's at home. That's a, that's a Lambo. I don't, I don't trust Green Bay yet. I'm telling you right now, just for you, I am going to play the New England Patriots minus 19 and a half, available on the FanDuel sportsbook. This is why I'm playing. Playing it at plus 420. The kids know what that means. Plus 420.
- [66:30]
Bill Simmons
Can we start a new segment with FanDuel called Runway Bets? Airplane Runway bets. That's one of those that I wouldn't do until the guy's like, please shut down your phones. We were about to take off. Please make sure your belts are fast. And I'm like, oh, my God, I gotta bet the Pats. Plus 420. Let me get this off. Hold on, Pilot. Well, let's take a break and then we'll talk about the games that we love. This episode is brought to you by Contentful marketers. You know that feeling when your creative clicks, when that social post sends engagement through the roof, when your outside of the box campaign hits ROI positive, when a personalized homepage turns prospects into customers. It's utter marketing bliss. Contentful helps you create tailored omnichannel experiences without working overtime. No stress, no limits, only possibilities. Get the feels. @contentful.com you know the words dominating today's headlines.
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Joe House
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Bill Simmons
But do you understand how they impact your world and your wallet. In a world that skims the what, understand the why. Because context changes everything. Subscribe@Bloomberg.com whoever you're repping this season, carry.
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Zach Lowe
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Bill Simmons
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Zach Lowe
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Bill Simmons
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Zach Lowe
The long haul, find all the teams.
- [68:11]
Bill Simmons
You root for@yeti.com or a Yeti store near you. All right, this is interesting. So we didn't talk about beforehand which ones we liked. You said you like three games. Have any of them come up with. Was Saints one of them? One of the games?
- [68:27]
Zach Lowe
Saints was one of them, yes.
- [68:28]
Bill Simmons
Okay, let's talk Saints then. Saints plus five and a half at Chicago. Saints outdoors. Bears overvalued, so those things cancel each other out. Bears defense, 32nd yards per play, 31st against the run. They have no pass rush whatsoever. And a pretty lucky win against your dumb team last week with your stupid turnover.
- [68:48]
Zach Lowe
The effing Washingtons fumbled the ball at midfield with three minutes left in the game on a. On a third and short with a chance to just win the effing football game.
- [68:58]
Bill Simmons
Right?
- [68:58]
Zach Lowe
The goddamn Bears have won two straight games by the score of 25 to 24, one point. And both of them have been these preposterous outcomes where the other team is like, would you like to win a game this season? So dumb. I'm so upset with it. But five and a half.
- [69:14]
Bill Simmons
Funny. You it. It all. They always talk about turnover, aggression and regression on fourth down, all this stuff. And you had all these amazing stats last year, right? And we're watching in real time this season, the regression just flip like last year, third and three from midfield with a chance to put the game away. You would have got. You would have taking two chances, put it away.
- [69:35]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, that's right.
- [69:36]
Bill Simmons
I don't know what the difference is this year.
- [69:38]
Zach Lowe
The offensive line isn't as good. There's no receivers, no McLaren. Right. So that's the difference. And Jaden had a bad game.
- [69:48]
Bill Simmons
All right, so what's your case for this? Saints plus five and a half.
- [69:51]
Zach Lowe
It's a ridiculous number. It's. It's the Bears. The Bears is the case. Like five and a half. What are we talking about? If you wanted to say the Bears at home, you know, by. By two and a half. Or something some reasonable number less than a field goal. But this is based on priors that don't exist. This season. The Saints are averaging nearly 5 yards per play on the road against good teams. Against Seattle and Buffalo, they did it against New England. This is the easiest defense that the Saints will have confronted by far by a long shot. And you know the Saints have better net yards per play. There's a whole bunch of stats that just support the idea. We're not saying that the Saints are good. They're competent though. They're playing hard. And we're seeing in front of us Rattler growing more and more comfortable. Even if they end up in a game script where the weather is going to really mess with this. I'd much rather have the Saints offense in bad weather than the Bears offensive. Bears can't run the football. The Bears got lucky with a, with a. With a real route swing pass to goddamn DeAndre Swift against my Washington team. Raquan Martin like thought he was playing two hand touch. He too hand touched him on the sideline and then one 55 yards for a touchdown. That was the game deciding goddamn touchdown. I am not a believer in this Bears team. Give me all the five and a half points and I'll probably play New Orleans on the money line as well.
- [71:21]
Bill Simmons
It's a great case. I'll add this. New Orleans, they lose 13 to 20 to 13 in week one to Arizona. Right first week they actually were a little more competitive than I think people realized. And Cardinals went up early and the Saints were like coming back trying to win.
- [71:37]
Zach Lowe
There was like wide receiver with the ball in his hands in the end zone with 13 seconds left for the Saints it just didn't stay in his hands. The ball fell out of his hands. But they were about to tie that.
- [71:47]
Bill Simmons
Game up 49ers week two, lose by five. Another respectable effort. They get killed by the Seahawks in Seattle in week three. That's a good defense game turnovers.
- [71:58]
Zach Lowe
That game was all turnovers. Their net yards were fine at Buffalo.
- [72:02]
Bill Simmons
Hung around the entire game, whole game. And I watched that game and had that game on and was shocked how they were able to get first downs and just kind of hang around staying. They beat the Giants 26:14 last week against my team 25:19. We watched together some awful calls, some of the worst calls ever. And multiple times Pat's guys were wide open down the field. But they pressured May like they. They were around him the whole game. They moved the ball like I Rattler was okay, like they had a chance to win that game. So their schedule has been pretty good. Like they haven't played a shit team yet unless you count the Giants. And I don't think the Giants are a shit team. They're not one of the five worst teams.
- [72:44]
Zach Lowe
No, they're not.
- [72:45]
Bill Simmons
I agree with you. I think this line is too high. That's why I had it marked down.
- [72:49]
Zach Lowe
The other thing that I like and I'm tracking now that we're enough weeks in, I'm looking at the allocation of tickets because the public is getting annihilated. So I just want directionally to have some, some validation, some confirmation. Right now 60% is on Chicago. That's on the FanDuel sports book. If you go under their stats thing, 60% of tickets on Chicago. So directionally that makes me feel good.
- [73:13]
Bill Simmons
One of the most fun is taking a team right after they looked awesome on a Monday night game.
- [73:18]
Joe House
Right.
- [73:18]
Bill Simmons
And also Aikman was really hard on Caleb Williams in that game and it turned into a story. But I don't know, I stand with.
- [73:26]
Zach Lowe
Trey Aikman and I mean, the Saints are going to play his own coverage and the weather's going to be bad. Let's see it. Caleb, I like, I mean, you know, I'm rooting for Caleb. Went to my high school.
- [73:34]
Bill Simmons
Can we talk Panthers? Jets. Was that one of your three?
- [73:37]
Zach Lowe
It was not.
- [73:40]
Bill Simmons
Panthers minus one and a half at the Jets Tic Tac game.
- [73:43]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [73:44]
Bill Simmons
And I'll admit Bryce Young on the road has been admittedly rough. It hasn't been great. He's been. It's been a home away situation with them at home. They've been good. Panthers finally with some skill position, guys, defense not terrible. Fourth against the run, sixth first downs allowed, jets defense, 32nd force turnover. Something's got to give with them and Bryce Young on the road. Panthers defense, ninth against the run. And their issue is past defense. The jets don't have Garrett Wilson and we're already 32nd out of all the teams in passing success, every metric ever.
- [74:22]
Zach Lowe
Yes.
- [74:24]
Bill Simmons
So there's two things. One would be you could say, well, if the jets don't win this one, they might not win this year. Like this is a nice spot for them. The other one is like maybe there's something here with Carolina like to get over the hump. They'd be 4 and 3 after this game. We could do the.
- [74:40]
Joe House
Whoa.
- [74:41]
Bill Simmons
Oh my God. The Panthers are 4 and 3. I think this is going to be Justin Fields last start ever.
- [74:49]
Zach Lowe
Well, do we know for sure that he's starting have they announced he might.
- [74:52]
Bill Simmons
Have already had his last start ever. Last week there was.
- [74:54]
Zach Lowe
It was up in the air. I thought they were. The news reports were suggesting that Tyrod might be the starter.
- [75:00]
Joe House
Great.
- [75:00]
Zach Lowe
There's some news out there that suggests.
- [75:02]
Bill Simmons
That the jets are terrible. And I thought Denver. We watched that game together too. If Bo Nick slides in the first half.
- [75:12]
Zach Lowe
Over the.
- [75:13]
Bill Simmons
Over the marker. I just think Denver wins by 30. This feels like it just booze the whole thing. Anyway, I like the Panthers. So you're not as enthused just because.
- [75:22]
Zach Lowe
I. I mean let him show us. Let him go win a game on the road. Just show us that you can do it. I don't care. I don't care who you know. It's. It's. I don't like going up against a team that hasn't won yet. Even in the completely depleted state that the jets are in. And the coach, that head coach, he will soon enough again be a defensive coordinator.
- [75:48]
Bill Simmons
I like when he's. Aaron Glenn's already doing the I Ben. I watched this with Dan Campbell. It takes a while to build a house. And doing that whole thing, it's like you know what else would help build the house? Calling timeouts before the end of the first half.
- [76:00]
Zach Lowe
A little foundation. Using the right materials.
- [76:03]
Bill Simmons
Game management maybe helps the house construction manager.
- [76:06]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. Some of those things could help.
- [76:08]
Bill Simmons
Was Vikings Eagles one of your games?
- [76:13]
Zach Lowe
I gave it a good long, hard look.
- [76:16]
Bill Simmons
Well, let's give it a hard look now. Vikings plus two and a half at home against the Eagles who don't have Mitchell, a cornerback.
- [76:25]
Zach Lowe
Right.
- [76:27]
Bill Simmons
Probably don't have Dickerson. And they're off. There's like a million pieces you can find online about how different their offensive line is this year than last year. Carter playing hurt or not playing their best guy their night and day when he's not out there. Zadarius Smith just retired. They have no pass rush anymore. This is their top three pass rushers are now out and hurting. A cornerback against Jefferson Addison. I don't love that. I assume it's Wentz. I don't mind Wentz against a really bad defense. But the Eagles the real thing for me I think they. You could say the Eagles have a below. Below average defense so far this year. I think that's fair. There's somewhere in like the. If you have four. Four tiers of defense, they're in the third tier. They're not bottom tier but third tier or two. Their offensive stats are unbelievably bad like and they back up what We've been watching, which has been a big shit sandwich. 29th against pass, 25th against the rush, 28th yards per play, 31st tackles for loss. They're against this Minnesota defense. Second versus pass, second on third down, third QB hurries. They have Cashman and Van Ginkel coming back this week. They're home. They're underdogs. And I don't understand the line.
- [77:40]
Zach Lowe
What is the line now?
- [77:42]
Bill Simmons
The line is Vikings plus two and a half.
- [77:44]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, we would be playing it at Vikings plus two and a half. So here's the problem for me. This is why I was stuck on it. The Vikings haven't really done much in terms of like inside the numbers. They're 0.4 net yards per play. Better against Chicago, who they came back late to win against Atlanta with Pennock.
- [78:10]
Bill Simmons
Full nerd on me right now.
- [78:11]
Zach Lowe
Well, I'm just like looking at this like they, they, you know, they have Atlanta, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh on a neutral field and Cleveland. Right. This is, this is like these games, these teams that they played under these circumstances, not really blowing me away with this Minnesota team. Now you would say, well, you know, Cashman and Ben Kinkle missed a chunk of a significant chunk of those games.
- [78:40]
Bill Simmons
Yes, they did. They were missing the two linebackers who were the fuel to their team.
- [78:45]
Zach Lowe
And the reason to be bullish on the Vikings is Jalen Hurts has been horrific, horrific against two man and against zone defense. Absolutely terrible. And the Minnesota Vikings will blitz the hell out of him. But, you know, the only thing you have to like say to yourself is we're betting on Carson Wentz. Or have they said for sure that it's Wentz?
- [79:15]
Bill Simmons
Can I offer you this? I just looked this up on FanDuel. Vikings up to plus three and a half. Chiefs money line minus 120 right at the cutoff of what we can do for a parlay. And now we're over the field goal hump with that.
- [79:31]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, I don't hate that. I don't hate that because it still permits the idea that the Eagles win a close one. I don't like the defense. The matchup for the Eagles in any way, shape or form.
- [79:46]
Bill Simmons
Chiefs money with plus three and a half.
- [79:51]
Joe House
Okay.
- [79:55]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [79:56]
Zach Lowe
We have two comebacks by Minnesota that kind of have saved their season. They came back against Chicago in that fourth quarter and they came back in the final like, you know, minute against Cleveland.
- [80:07]
Bill Simmons
But we, we didn't have Addison the first three games. Now they have the two receivers with Hawkinson.
- [80:12]
Zach Lowe
Okay.
- [80:13]
Bill Simmons
I think they can run on them. I actually Like Jordan Mason.
- [80:16]
Joe House
I think he's been good.
- [80:17]
Bill Simmons
I have one of fantasy teams.
- [80:18]
Zach Lowe
We also like o' Connell off the bye. Right. With a chance. Who's got a long look at this? Philadelphia Eagles.
- [80:26]
Bill Simmons
The Eagles have been telling us who they are for six weeks and they really could be two and four.
- [80:30]
Zach Lowe
Okay. I kind of like it. I kind of like it.
- [80:32]
Bill Simmons
Bikes plus three and a half. Chiefs money minus 120.
- [80:35]
Zach Lowe
So that's one of our bets.
- [80:37]
Bill Simmons
Put that in the book. I marked it down.
- [80:39]
Zach Lowe
Okay.
- [80:39]
Bill Simmons
Two more games. Chargers, Colts. Did that one intrigue you?
- [80:44]
Zach Lowe
Oh, it sure did, yes.
- [80:45]
Bill Simmons
Chargers minus one and a half favorites at home against the Colts. The Colts have major, major cornerback injury stuff. Like they're just like they've been ravaged. So there's that. We watched them last week play Arizona and Jacoby Brissette, who was not a playable quarterback last year for New England, I think he went 27 for 44. He threw for over 300 yards. There was like a quarterback controversy in Arizona after the game. And the reason he did so well was the Colts defense was awful. And if you look at it, they beat Brissette by four. They beat Geno, they beat Cam Ward, they beat Bo Nix in a game that they should have lost that stupid leverage play. And they beat two in week one. The Chargers have. It seems like Joe Walt's coming back for a left tackle. Oh, seems like he, he did the limited practice like might be back and then Cleo Mack might be back as well. And it's funny, I started the week really liking the Colts and thinking they were underrated. But these defensive injuries comes down to this for me. Joe House. This just to me feels like a Justin Herbert is awesome game. And we're going to find out if Johnson is playing, but I think he is. He's been limited practice but if Brissette can do that against the Colts defense, this just feels like a Justin Herbert, just take us home. All we need to do is win by three. Justin Herbert, just take us home.
- [82:10]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [82:10]
Bill Simmons
Add this to your MVP candidacy. I'll ride you. And also, should the colts really be 6 and 1? Like that seems crazy.
- [82:18]
Joe House
Yeah. Yeah.
- [82:19]
Zach Lowe
Good. We're on the same page here. All the reasons you just listed that, that Colt secondary without Javarious Ward, he who has been incredible, just he got.
- [82:29]
Bill Simmons
Concussed for the game.
- [82:31]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [82:32]
Bill Simmons
Yesterday. It's a week long injury anyway. But I think that, I mean he's had multiple, multiple concussions.
- [82:38]
Zach Lowe
Yep.
- [82:39]
Bill Simmons
So I don't think we'll be seeing him. Yeah. They have No D backs.
- [82:43]
Zach Lowe
They have no D backs. The other thing I love is that the public is on the Colts right now. 59% on the Colts in this. Now we wanted to get to 60%. So go ahead, public, please. Hey, the Colts, the Chargers barely beat the Dolphins last week. So let me have the Colts on the road. Okay? Please, please do that. Let's get this nice. 60% for the public.
- [83:04]
Bill Simmons
Chargers, the top six against the pass. So the, the, the thing that would worry me in this game is they run all over the Chargers. Taylor just goes nuts. Sure.
- [83:14]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [83:15]
Bill Simmons
By the way, they've played in LA already. Weirdly, they played the Rams in la. So this is. They did the SOFI double. I don't know if that's good or bad.
- [83:23]
Zach Lowe
And lost. Close.
- [83:25]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [83:26]
Zach Lowe
But do we really believe that Indiana Jones is going to be as six and one? Yeah. And as triumphant as he's been thus far? Not one mistake.
- [83:38]
Bill Simmons
Let me ask you this. How many games in a row can Daniel Jones play before just having an awful game before just submitting a shit sandwich? Like, what's a realistic number? Even if we were like the best case version of a Daniel Jones season.
- [83:53]
Zach Lowe
I mean, I have my right hand up. I'm ready to see it. This is the game.
- [83:57]
Bill Simmons
We've gone through six games where he hasn't been terrible. In any of the games he has not been.
- [84:01]
Zach Lowe
He's been very good.
- [84:03]
Bill Simmons
Where we haven't said the. Oh man, he's just walking off the sidelines with that weird look on his face.
- [84:08]
Zach Lowe
Chargers minus one and a half.
- [84:10]
Bill Simmons
Chargers will be five and two. If they win this.
- [84:14]
Zach Lowe
They will have earned it too.
- [84:16]
Bill Simmons
I think if they win this, first of all, it completely changes the complexion of Texans Seahawks on Monday night. Because if the Texans can steal that one, all of a sudden they're back. But I feel like we're going to be flipping our opinion on the AFC south all season probably. All right, I saved the best for last. I knew this would be one of your games. There's just no doubt we have the Cleveland Browns favored by two and a half against the Miami Dolphins. The weather report. I don't think ominous is a strong enough word. Here's what we know. We have definite, definite rainstorm. The mile an hour for the winds, they said conservative 15 to 20. Possibility of 50 to 60. The temperature's not going to be that low. So with the Tua thing, it's like with two in the dolphins under 40 degrees. Dolphins in any scenario under 40 degrees. Like just an automatic smash. But. But two in bad weather. And then on top of it, their defense is 32nd against the rush. So if this is just that, it's bad weather, let's see who can run the ball.
- [85:24]
Zach Lowe
You have.
- [85:24]
Bill Simmons
On the one hand, a defense can't stop the rush. On the other hand, you have a Cleveland defense that's third against the run and is. Is. Is good. Even though they didn't look great last week against Pittsburgh, the most important thing.
- [85:36]
Zach Lowe
By a long shot is that it's the Cleveland defense at home.
- [85:41]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [85:41]
Zach Lowe
The Cleveland defense at home is magnificent. And you know, they took a season off last season, but the season before that when they went into the playoffs with Joe Flacco as their quarterback. A dominant defense at home. We are right back in that saddle again. A dominant defense against the run in particular and TUA not being able to throw the football in these weather conditions. Oh, the fact.
- [86:08]
Bill Simmons
Only their third. Only their third Browns home game this year too. And you're right, they're a completely different team when they're home with the defense. Go ahead.
- [86:15]
Zach Lowe
Well, all I was going to say is. Is. I forgot what I was going to say the Gabriel part too. Like, remember the situations that he was put into as a starting quarterback. He went up against Minnesota with the blitz. Defensive. Flores, welcome to the NFL. And then they. They lost a day. They traveled from Europe back to the United States to play Mike Tomlin at Pittsburgh. So, you know, I think this is his first, like real week to real game. Yeah, right, right.
- [86:47]
Bill Simmons
I don't think he's very good.
- [86:48]
Zach Lowe
I don't think so either.
- [86:49]
Bill Simmons
I'm not making the Miami Dolphins. So how about this House? They have the 32nd rush defense, right. Last in the league. And we have some bad rush defenses. They played Kamani Vidal last week in the Chargers. They played Rico Dowdo. They basically turned Rico Dowdo's career around. They played the fucking Jets. They played my team that rushed for 22 for 45 with their two starting running backs last week, we can't run the ball at all. I'm making up Derek Henry and Alvin Kamara trades with my friends. And then they played James Cook and Taylor, who are two of the best. But if you're. If four or six games against those four teams and you're 32nd against the Rush, you can't stop the rush. So this could be the Judkins game of all time would be my guess.
- [87:37]
Zach Lowe
Let's go.
- [87:37]
Bill Simmons
This is it. This is the, you know, Browns minus two and a half. Feels like a miracle.
- [87:45]
Zach Lowe
And I just don't understand why I stayed at two and a half.
- [87:48]
Bill Simmons
I this is my favorite game of the year.
- [87:51]
Zach Lowe
I feel the same way and you.
- [87:52]
Bill Simmons
Know I love this game. I can't wait to watch Miami shivering cold with the wind. Tua and Miles Garrett coming after Tua Tua and horrible weather like this just feels like a fucking godsend.
- [88:04]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, all over it this I wish we could bet this five times. Let's enter this into the contest. It says Browns, Browns, Browns, Browns, Browns. I wish we could do that.
- [88:14]
Bill Simmons
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- [89:07]
Zach Lowe
It's time to pour some settle down juice on the Bears.
- [89:11]
Bill Simmons
Well, is there any bitterness that they beat your team last week after you just kept turning the ball over and.
- [89:16]
Zach Lowe
Letting them hang around thousands of yes, yes, yes. There's a lot of bitterness.
- [89:20]
Bill Simmons
The Bears have won a couple dumb games. Anyway, I think this is a three point game and maybe the Saints can win. I'm with you on that one. Next one we both like Chargers. Colts. Chargers minus one and a half.
- [89:31]
Zach Lowe
Fine.
- [89:32]
Bill Simmons
The Justin Herbert MVP game. Let's see it. Colts defense ravaged with secondary injuries. Let's go Justin Herbert. Show us why you should be in this conversation with Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes and my guy Drake. May.
- [89:47]
Joe House
Outrageous.
- [89:47]
Bill Simmons
Maybe Josh Allen. I forgot about him. Don't want to forget about Josh Allen. But yeah, the Colts. This feels like a bad spot for them. Second LA trip for them already. We're waiting for the Daniel Jones. Don't forget that he's not a mortal lock to be good all the time guy. We are Next one. Panthers minus one half against the Jets. This is my pick. Panthers minus one and a half. We're breaking the seal off of Bryce Young and the Panthers skill guys. Rico Dowdle, Ted McMillan, Jalen Coker from Holy Cross coming back. Think they can move the ball? Listen, we've said the Panthers only bet on them at home. I think this is when we finally get some growth. We get some stories on Sunday night. Panthers finally 11 on the road where they look like maybe by the way, they could be four and three after this. And I think the jets are just reprehensibly bad. They might be no Garrett Wilson. The way to beat the Panthers, throw the ball on them. Jets 32nd pass offense. No Garrett Wilson. Sounds awesome. Next one is our parlay Chiefs moneyline against the Raiders. Free to throw that one and it's minus 700. Pat's money line against the Titans Callahan tire fires. No more. Pat's on the road. Ray Ball all time revenge game. House loves this for Pat's minus 19 and a half as an airplane Runway bet 420. So minus 19 and a half plus 420. Anyway, Chiefs Moneyline, Pat's Moneyline. We're going to bring the Vikings against the Smoke and Mares Eagles up to plus seven and a half at home. We think that can actually win the game.
- [91:17]
Zach Lowe
We sure do.
- [91:18]
Bill Simmons
But Chiefs moneyline, Pat's Moneyline, Vikings plus seven and a half against a Eagles team that has not looked awesome.
- [91:27]
Zach Lowe
Right.
- [91:28]
Bill Simmons
And then last but not least, our favorite pick in seven weeks, literally. Cleveland Browns minus two and a half at home against Dolphins. Thunderstorms, wind estimated between worst case scenario, 50 miles an hour. Scariest scenario, 60 miles an hour. And Tua and the dolphins and DJ Mikey Mack.
- [91:54]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, mixed.
- [91:55]
Bill Simmons
Trying to dial it up with their 32nd run defense as the Browns run all over them. Their defense goes nuts. And we like the Browns at home.
- [92:01]
Zach Lowe
We sure do. Quinshon Judkins. Breakout game. More breakout game in that defense against this.
- [92:07]
Bill Simmons
Sounds great.
- [92:08]
Zach Lowe
Let's go, man.
- [92:09]
Bill Simmons
That's today's Ringer 107. It's brought to you by FanDuel Odds subject to change. House, you did so well. I want to pour you a glass of dessert wine and then charge you $500.
- [92:19]
Zach Lowe
Oh, well, that feels like a bargain. Five hundred? You're only charging me 500?
- [92:24]
Bill Simmons
That's a bargain. Maybe I went low.
- [92:27]
Zach Lowe
House.
- [92:28]
Joe House
Hey.
- [92:29]
Zach Lowe
Hey.
- [92:30]
Bill Simmons
I'll see you next week. Good luck in the Ringer 107.
- [92:33]
Zach Lowe
Good luck to both of us.
- [92:35]
Bill Simmons
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Kyle Mann and House and Eduardo and Gahal. Enjoy the weekend. I'm going to be back on Sunday night with the cuz talking NFL. See you then. Must be 21 plus on President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 Plus. I'm President in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Game problem call 100 Gambler, visit rg-help.com, call 888-79777 or visit ccpg.orgchatincut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland and Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York.