The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: A Hawks Power Play, Plus a Round 1 Playoff Mega-Preview With Joe House and Billy Gill

Date: January 9, 2026
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Joe House, Billy Gill

Overview

This episode dives into two main topics:

1. The blockbuster NBA trade sending Trae Young to the Washington Wizards (or “Bullets,” as House prefers), with an in-depth fan’s perspective and speculation about subsequent moves for the Hawks and the league.
2. An exhaustive NFL Wild Card/Round 1 Playoff preview, featuring Bill Simmons, Joe House, and “The Duke” Billy Gill as they break down all six playoff games, share betting manifesto rules, and swap uniquely sports-obsessed storylines and predictions.

The conversation is playful but nuanced, with insider references, gambling banter, and deep-dive fan angles that mix stats, heartache, and classic Simmons theorizing.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

I. Trae Young Trade: Hawks & Wizards Reactions and Ramifications

A. Washington Wizards Acquire Trae Young

• The Wizards trade Kispert and McCollum (both expiring contracts) for Trae Young, with no picks involved.
• Joe House, a life-long D.C. fan, is conflicted but ultimately rationalizes the trade:
  • "We started yesterday with one player in the top 100, and now we have two." (05:28)
  • Acknowledges that Trae Young is a “distressed asset,” has been injured often, and is mostly about cap and asset management.
• Both hosts agree the Wizards “need to suck” for draft positioning (“bottom four is all that matters”—B, 10:16).
• Debate on whether Trae will play much this year or get a medical excuse to sit, given tanking goals versus attendance embarrassment.

B. Trae Young: Player Assessment & Locker Room Concerns

• Simmons questions whether Trae Young is the same dynamic player as five years ago, noting his three-point shooting decline and "teammates don't really seem to like playing with him." (08:26)
• “It’s a little like the Ja Morant thing, where in your head it's the young guy from five years ago and I'm not sure it's the same guy.” (A, 08:26)
• House expects Trae’s debut to be limited: “I’d set it at like 19 and a half games played.” (09:43)
• Expectation is that the Wizards are simply positioning themselves for lottery odds, not building to win soon.

C. Hawks’ Trade Flexibility and League-Wide Dominoes

• Both discuss how unloading Trae Young opens doors for Atlanta, especially as a gateway to a possible Anthony Davis (AD) trade or pressure on Milwaukee regarding Giannis.
• Simmons outlines possible domino trades, including AD, Gafford for Kaminga, PJ Washington, and trickle-down moves involving Dallas and Houston (12:09).
• “There were some dominoes in play with this, House.” (A, 12:46)
• House questions the value of possible returned draft picks ("why do we want an Atlanta pick? It would be in the high teens or low 20s…let’s see how Trae Young performs"—B, 15:42).
• Both joke about longshot parlay bets and the fun of theorizing about asset swaps in the NBA.

D. Notable & Memorable Quotes

• “The most important thing for the Washington basketball franchise in 2026 is... to suck.” —Joe House (B, 05:49)
• “I love the Walturn. I've done a couple things there. Great theater.” —Bill Simmons (A, opening show notes)
• “We started yesterday with one player in the top 100, and now we have two.” —Joe House (B, 05:28)
• “I don’t mind a change of scenery trade when you give up nothing for a guy who at one point was a meaningful NBA player and he’s only 27.” —Bill Simmons (A, 11:09)

II. NFL Playoff Round 1: Mega-Preview, Manifesto, and Picks

A. Setting the Stage

• Simmons, House, and Billy recap their less-than-stellar regular season gambling results but see the playoffs as a new opportunity: “For you guys, this is the turnaround point in the season.” —Billy Gill (C, 25:48)
• They lament the lack of “good villains” and general parity, joking about how it's a “likable group of teams” (A, 26:30).

B. The Playoff Gambling Manifesto (touched throughout)

• Simmons walks through 19 yearly “Manifesto” rules for betting the NFL playoffs (see segment starting ~32:30), including gems like:
  • “Beware of the nobody believes in us team.”
  • “Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe they can win.”
  • “Beware of dome teams playing outdoors in cold weather, or vice versa.”
  • “Don’t talk yourself into a terrible QB for any reason.”
  • “When in doubt, gravitate toward the pick that would screw over the most gamblers and experts.”
  • “Take a long look at the coaches—would you trust them with your passport abroad?”

C. Game-by-Game Breakdown & Unique Angles

1. Rams (-10.5) vs Panthers

• Deep statistical dives revealing Panthers as possibly the “worst playoff team by DVOA" ever—but precedent exists for home dogs pulling off huge upsets (65:07).
• Billy’s “Powerball” theory: Bryce Young could play his way into a Daniel Jones/Flacco-style accidental contract extension (57:38).
• Lots of joking about conspiracy-theory Rams fan explanations for MVP voting and stat manipulation (60:31).
• Lean: Slight preference for Carolina +10.5 because of the historic point spread and “backdoor cover” potential, but no one loves the pick.

2. Packers (-1.5) at Bears

• LaFleur vs Ben Johnson real/fake rivalry (73:37).
• Cheese Grater Hats vs Cheese Heads (fan gear troll war) (77:28).
• Packers seen as better, more rested, and with a coaching/strategy edge.
• Simmons: “I love the Green Bay Packers in this game. This is the first lock for me.” (81:19)

3. Jaguars (+1.5) vs Bills

• Entire panel loves Jacksonville as wrongly-disrespected home underdog.
• Trevor Lawrence likened to Royal Rumble wrestler hiding under the ring (88:03).
• Stats: Jags home record, strong finish, Buffalo's defensive woes and struggles in warm weather.
• “How is Buffalo favored?” Simmons repeatedly asks.
• Locks: Jags +1.5, and a favorite tease with Green Bay (94:33).

4. Eagles (-4.5) vs 49ers

• Philly’s home field, Niners’ defensive injuries, and wild “Levi’s Stadium electromagnetic field is causing tendon injuries” conspiracy (101:02).
• Billy: “What's the expiration date on a revenge game?" (99:43)
• Allen Ek, Eagles-fan-ref angle (98:51).
• Leans to Philly owing to health and momentum; both dismiss Niners' "revenge" storyline.

5. Patriots (-3.5) vs Chargers

• Bill’s personal Super Bowl, with emotional stakes for both the podcast and his Netflix live show debut (113:04).
• Drake May praised as a legit top QB; concerns about whether New England’s résumé is “for real” because of uncertain strength of schedule.
• House: “I just think 3-and-a-half is too many points... the Chargers are tough, defense is legit. ” (116:54)
• Bill: “Pats are better than people think... Pats minus 3.5.” (118:52)

6. Steelers (+3) vs Texans

• Houston outside stats, C.J. Stroud in cold weather, and mystical “voodoo juice” of the Steelers on Monday night (124:33).
• Billy: “Texans are not a Monday team. They should be playing on Saturday.” (125:23)
• Questions about Mike Tomlin’s future as Steelers coach, possible postgame WWE-style “turn” (130:17).
• All see Steelers as the classic “voodoo, nobody-believes-in-us” home underdog and a sharp play.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "I’d set it at like 19 and a half games played [for Trae Young]." —Joe House (09:43)
• “The most important thing for the Washington basketball franchise in 2026 is... to suck.” —Joe House (05:49)
• “It’s a little like the Ja Morant thing, where in your head it's the young guy from five years ago and I'm not sure it's the same guy.” —Bill Simmons (08:26)
• “If you blitz him, [Drake May] knows what to do. If you play back and zone, he kind of knows what to do.” —Bill Simmons (119:18)
• "Never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that it has a chance to win." —Bill Simmons reciting Manifesto Rule (37:36)
• Conspiracy theories around the “Levi’s electromagnetic tendon injuries” (101:02) and “Rams fans on message boards” (60:31).
• “Texans are not a Monday team. They should be playing on Saturday. The Shaky's game.” —Billy Gill (125:23)
• The Vince McMahon/WWF-style speculation about Tomlin jumping from the Steelers to the Ravens (130:17)
• Final banter about toxic celebrity mom groups, Ashley Tisdale drama, and reality TV (103:34).

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------------------------|------------| | Trae Young trade opening & Wizards reaction | 04:05–11:09 | | Hawks' dominoes, future trades (AD, etc.) | 11:09–18:08 | | Early Playoff Manifesto, NFL Playoff “wide open” landscape | 24:51–33:27 | | The Gambling Manifesto rules deep dive | 32:30–44:26 | | Rams/Panthers preview and DVOA stats | 56:43–71:24 | | Packers/Bears: storylines and breakdown | 72:36–84:32 | | Jaguars/Bills: “Royal Rumble” TLaw, stats, and consensus pick | 85:34–95:26 | | 49ers/Eagles: injuries, “Levi’s” electromagnetic theory | 98:51–108:19| | Patriots/Chargers: Drake May, Bill’s emotions, Herbert scrutiny |109:49–124:00| | Steelers/Texans: voodoo juice, Tomlin, Monday stats |124:24–133:09|

Structure: Playoff Picks: Ringer 107

• Packers -1.5 (at Bears)
• Jaguars +1.5 (vs Bills)
• Steelers +3 (vs Texans)
• Eagles -4.5 (vs 49ers)
• Patriots ML + over 36.5 (vs Chargers)
  • (Unofficial: Panthers +10.5—size of the home underdog numbs all logic)
• Strongest convictions around Jaguars, Packers, Steelers.

Tone, Style, & Banter Takeaways

• Classic Simmons: joking about “nobody believes in us” teams, wrestling analogies (Royal Rumble, Hogan/nWo), Manifesto reiteration, and poking fun at fandom pathos and irrational fan apologia.
• House is the grizzled, slightly depressed D.C. sports diehard, resigning himself to asset tankery and the cycles of Wizards pain—with humor.
• Billy Gill is witty, left-field, and eager to drop storylines about mascot rivalries and foam cheese grater hats.
• Frequent meta-commentary about gambling, sports media, and how fan conversations are shaped by message boards, panel shows, and even ref hometown conspiracy theories.
• An abundance of self-deprecation, especially with regard to last season’s gambling results—everyone is ready to turn the page.

Suitability for Those Who Haven’t Listened

This summary presents the episode’s major insights, the engrossing banter and sports references, as well as the unique storylines and theories. If you missed the podcast, you'll leave with an understanding of the key NBA and NFL moves, up-to-date betting/watching notes for Wild Card Weekend, and the signature Simmons/House/Billy brand of sports storytelling and humor.