← The Bill Simmons Podcast
The Bill Simmons Podcast
A Knicks Title, "Whaddya Do?" NBA Teams, the QB Pyramid, and a CFB Playoff Primer With Zach Lowe and Todd McShay
01:51:59
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- [00:00]
Bill Simmons
This episode is brought to you by Prime Video. Thursday Night Football's on. It's only on prime this week. The NFC west grabbing the spotlight. I mean, really, the NFC is grabbing the spotlight because it's the Los Angeles Rams visiting the Seattle Seahawks. This is the best possible NFC matchup we could have, other than maybe if Green Bay was involved. But this is going to determine the division, the possible one seed, a whole bunch of variables. Coverage begins at 7pm Eastern with football's best party TNF TF tonight, presented by Verizon Rams. Seahawks Thursday, 7pm Eastern. Don't miss the Broncos and Chiefs, by the way, on Christmas night. Only on Prime Video. Not a Prime member? Not a problem. Simply sign up for a 30 day free trial. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details. The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network at new rewatchables that went up on Monday. We did High Fidelity 25 years and a couple months after it was released, four person podcast that included the hottest take in the history of the rewatchables from Rob Mahoney. I won't spoil it to you, but it almost caused Chris Ryan and I to convulse. So you have that. And guess what? There's gonna be another rewatchables because we are recording. I'm recording this on Tuesday night. We are recording another rewatchables tomorrow to pay tribute to Rob Reiner. We've done six Rob Reiner rewatchable movies and one of the ones we hadn't done was the sure Thing, which is really not available on streaming, but you can find it if you get a little creative. But we're gonna do the short thing. We're gonna put that up on Wednesday night as a special bonus edition because we love dry briner and everybody is really sad out here in Los Angeles. So we are doing the short thing. It's an awesome, awesome movie. I actually forgot how much I love this movie. So we're gonna be talking about it in detail and we'll talk about Rob, Rob's great career and a whole bunch of things. It's just gonna be me and Chris Ryan. So stay tuned for that on Wednesday night and then on Thursday on hbo. Third installment of our Music Box series. It's Counting Crows documentary have youe Seen Me Lately. It's directed by Amy Scott and it's really, really good. And I would highly recommend, especially if you like 90s music, if you'd like Counting Crows at all, this is a really good one. So that is gonna be Thursday night and then I'll have another podcast on Thursday as well. So that's the game plan for this week. Coming up, Zach Lowe. Right after NBA cup, the Knicks beat the Spurs. We talked about that. We talked about what do you do teams. We talked about the Mets, whole bunch of things. And then Todd McShay joined us as well because we had talk NFL quarterbacks, we had to talk about the college football playoffs. We had to talk about Mendoza being the number one guy. This is a really good podcast. I don't know what to tell you. Sometimes we just have really good ones. This is another one. We take a break. Pearl Jam, then Zach Club. This episode of the Bill Simmons podcast is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting a linebacker on the football field but getting a line cook. Sure, they both can handle the pressure when it starts heating up, but only one is stopping a touchdown. You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting help you need. State Farm is the real deal. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. 8:09 Pacific Time. Zach Lowe staying up late on the east coast because the Knicks have just won their first championship since 1973.
- [03:59]
Zach Lowe
It's happened that you're going in just like that. I.
- [04:03]
Bill Simmons
It's a fact. I'm happy for them. Do you see them celebrating?
- [04:06]
Zach Lowe
Do you? Are you sure it's a fact? Are you sure they have won a summer league championship of some kind? If we're going to be snarky, you got to be properly.
- [04:13]
Bill Simmons
I didn't look that up. Hey, the NBA cup was great. Thumbs up, everybody plays hard, everybody gave a shit. The Knicks actually celebrated after they won the game. It was real playoff intensity and it did the job. I'm not sure it was the right location, but we had four teams that I thought I really wanted to watch. The matchups were good. It was a nice moment for the spurs and then a nice little hey, look out for us moment for the Knicks. So what was your biggest takeaway?
- [04:40]
Zach Lowe
The Knicks bench swinging the game. Mitchell Robinson, if he can stay healthy, is just a massive component of everything they do. Cat sat out some of the game with a little shin thing or calf thing. Mikhail Bridges was. Something happened with him at the end. Clarkson was huge. Colec has earned a real role which is going to be interesting when Shamut and McBride come back and just. I can't say enough about how amazing Anunoby has been when Healthy this season. Just an awesome game from him. Hart does what he does all the time. He's. This is a really good team. This was my pick to make the finals coming out of the east at the beginning of the season. They're ahead of schedule, I think given. Given what some of the sort of lesser stars have done this year. Yeah.
- [05:21]
Bill Simmons
Is it fair to say we have four west teams and I'm going to include San Antonio in the title contender race even though they'd be fourth from the West. But four west teams and an east team and then. I don't know. I think we have five teams because I think San Antonio is a real dark horse. I don't think they're going to make the finals. I think OKC is going to. And if they don't, I think it would be Denver and then I think it would be Houston. But I think San Antonio has, has earned dark, dark, dark horse status. Right. And then the Knicks in the East. I don't. Do you trust any other east team?
- [05:55]
Zach Lowe
It's hard to trust anybody in the east right now. I mean, the Pistons have earned some level of trust at 21 and 5 and you know, somebody will emerge like either Cleveland gets right or Orlando gets healthy. But yeah, it's really, it's really the Knicks and the Pistons and kind of everybody else right now. And the spurs thing is interesting because that's been the hot question since they beat the Thunder is are they a contender? And I don't, I think people kind of don't know what to do with the term contender because I hear contender and I think would not really surprise me if they won the championship. Michael Pina kind of described them as an under the radar contender with like, what does that mean? Conference finals would not be a surprise. You said dark, dark, dark horse. Like, I'm not ready to put them in the same circle as the Thunder and the Nuggets and whoever wins the east by default, but they're right there in the next tier. Maybe with the Rockets. I think I put the Rockets a little ahead of them. But if you told me they're in the same, you know, universe as the Rockets, I would say yeah, I mean, they've earned that.
- [06:57]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, they're four. They're fourth and a four man west race for who could make the finals. But you got to take them seriously because they have a top six guy in the league who I assume will be playing more minutes. They hit the jackpot with Castle. They hit the jackpot with Harper.
- [07:12]
Zach Lowe
Unbelievable. These good. These guards are Unbelievable, man.
- [07:15]
Bill Simmons
I had this was. I was going to do this later, but I'll just throw this to you now because I was really thinking about this on Saturday night. Watching OKC and the spurs, it rarely happened. Like we've had contenders, we've had more and more teams that seemed unstoppable. Like the 2017 warriors is a good example where we're like, oh, no, hold on. But that was a team of guys that in their prime, guys that were. Had been in the league for a while. It rarely happens when you have a young team with guys that for the most part, except for maybe one guy in the team, aren't even close to who they're going to be at. But they gave you that hold down feeling. And I actually went through all the seasons going back to the merger trying to figure out how many. Nobody.
- [07:55]
Zach Lowe
Nobody goes. Nobody goes back to the merger like Bill Simmons.
- [07:58]
Bill Simmons
Nobody loves going on Basketball Reference and just looking shit up. But I thought the 77 Blazers is a great example, right? Who end up winning the title, but young team on the rise. Walton, Mo, Lucas, all those guys. The 86 rockets with Samson, Lajuan. I'm just talking about teams that were like, oh, this team's really talented. Wait, they're here. 95 Magic is an obvious one with Shaq and Penny.
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Zach Lowe
It's a good one. That's a good one.
- [08:25]
Bill Simmons
Either the 10 or the 11 thunder. The 10 thunder weren't quite ready yet. The 11 thunder were and came really close to making the finals with a pretty precocious team of young kd, young Russ, really young Harden, really young Abaca, where we were kind of like, oh, shit, this could be the decade.
- [08:41]
Zach Lowe
That's conference finals against the MAVS.
- [08:43]
Bill Simmons
They lose 11. And then, you know, the Thunder two years ago in when. When they lost to Dallas and that, that seemed really early. But we're like, man, you look at their p, their guys, the picks they have coming. And now the Spurs, I think are the next one. So that's only six teams, Zach, in 50 years. There's some other ones like the 85 Mavs. You could say maybe 92, Sonics, 09 Bulls, the 17 Celtics. But those are the six. We're like, whoa, we're doing this now. And what's interesting is we have two teams from the last three years. And I was thinking about that Saturday night. I was like, every other team in the league would trade places with these two teams.
- [09:23]
Zach Lowe
I think it's going to be right now, it's going to be the defining rivalry of The NBA for the next five years. I mean, I don't know how many years. And it started with like the Chet Wemby always crossing paths like under 19, under 18. And there's a little spice there. And now it's just, you know, add these young guards, thunder young wings. Like, I mean the, the amount of perimeter, youth, energy, defense, it. Tenacity like Harper and Castle, even when they're not making shots. And, and today as good as they looked at moments there, you know, where are they? They're. Harper was 7 to 14, Castle 5 of 15. Like they're standing dudes up on defense. They're swiping at the ball. They're standing up guys that are bigger than they are. They are in for all the fight and all the like all the guts and toughness you need to win in the playoffs. Like they just walked into the league with it.
- [10:13]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, Harper had, he had an athletic stretch in the fourth quarter, like in the like the four minute range, four minutes left where he hit a three. He basically made Brunson do a backcourt violation. Yeah, he went in the corner and just grabbed this rebound with like the superhuman. How the fuck did he get there? And then brought it back and then tried to go in and make a crazy layup. But he can dial it up athletically like at a 10 of 10. And same for Castle, where these are two guys that could actually go toe to toe with all the OKC athleticism and then you throw in Wemby as a freak and this is a team that could talk themselves into a series against okc. I don't think they could win that series. They're not going to be afraid. They're not going to be athletically afraid. They're not going to be afraid of the speed of the series. And then you watch Houston, Denver last night, it was the same thing. And Houston, I thought that was first of all, that might have been the best game of the year. I know we say that like every time.
- [11:07]
Zach Lowe
Other than that really might have been refs. Other than the refs.
- [11:10]
Bill Simmons
Well, the refs weren't great, but that stretch when everybody was sitting threes. The Rockets have an embarrassment or riches at crunch time now where it's like they don't even run the KD Reed shepherd pick and roll with Reed set in the screen, which I don't know if anyone could stop because they have so many other options. And then, you know, Denver is Denver, but I don't know, these are just really, really, really talented teams. It's a Great, great, great, great, great, great regular season, I think, and I really enjoyed it.
- [11:40]
Zach Lowe
Houston being in the circuit in this group is interesting because we know that Van Vliet is injured, right. Eason's injured. Finney Smith hasn't played a second for them. But Van Vliet in particular, you feel the void of a little extra on ball juice for them at times. Like they're going offense defense late last night with Reed shepherd coming and then a Kogi comes in for Reed Shepherd. It's like, what do we actually need here in this moment? And they still have the number one offense in the league and they're still amazing. Can I just say a couple things on the Spurs?
- [12:10]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, please. Let's do it. Let's deep dive it.
- [12:14]
Zach Lowe
Harper just. Harper and Castle. I just can't say enough. We saw the three guards all together at the end of the game. I think it might have been the first time Fox, Castle and Harper were all on the floor together. No, Vassell was like small ball four.
- [12:30]
Bill Simmons
Which is a very interesting barn set. Okay.
- [12:32]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. Barnesat, which is a very interesting gambit because it's a way to make teams guard Wemby with their centers. And you saw this sort of jockeying to like, who are the centers going to guard? Are they going to guard Hart on one end, Harrison Barnes on the other end? And you know, I just like those guys. Those guards are so good and Fox is just a perfect sort of veteran stabilizer for them. And the other thing I want to say, Wembanyama should be noted as we're talking about the Knicks winning the cup and blah, blah, when Benyama 25 minutes -18, still clearly rusty, still clearly on a minute restriction. And yet the. The lobs are just comical. Just absolutely. Castle and Harper already know. Just throw the ball up. The defense is there. Like this wasn't even. I don't even know if this is like 60% of WEMBY. Like this was not the same guy from the first week of the season. That guy's coming and this game is different if that guy's in it.
- [13:25]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. And the Harper already. I mean, you don't really watch college basketball, so you're. You're catching Harper over the course of the season. We be like, oh, he does that. Oh, he does that. I don't even know who my favorite rookie in this class is anymore.
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Zach Lowe
Tremendous class.
- [13:41]
Bill Simmons
Initially it was Flag. I was like, I love Flag. And then the season started and it became infatuated with Knipple. And then Derek Queen had a moment for about a week where it's like what's going on here? They're running the entire offense through him and you have to play five feet off him even though he can't shoot and he's just a walking bucket or creation every time he wants to be. I don't know what this is. And then Harper, the last week where this kid's 19, he's got footwork that's like a very. In the Shay Kobe vicinity. It feels like someday on top of that he's got the size. He's just a really good teammate. He's not selfish at all. Like he's just. He'll slash and he's always feel like he's going to make the right play. He invents some stuff with some of the moves. He has some of these little drop step, double drop step, reverse things he does and. And then defensively he's there like he's playable already. So I don't even know out of those four. I mean have we had four like that that are that unique coming out of the gate in year one? I don't remember that well.
- [14:48]
Zach Lowe
And Cedric Coward is like hey wait, wait. Like I'm doing some pretty fun stuff in Memphis. And the other thing about Harper, I know he was only shooting like 26% from three before this game when he went by his standards, went bananas from three. He's ahead of schedule, working off the ball like relocating for threes, attacking closeouts from the corner. And Fox is just spraying the ball out to everybody for easy three for open threes. And like sometimes Fox will go to the corner too. And like you Cook, you run the offense out like they're. They're all ahead of schedule, sort of figuring out how to play with each other.
- [15:22]
Bill Simmons
I don't even remember what they gave up for Fox other than a pick that ended up not being conveyed and then two other picks and then some players that I don't even remember who the players were. Well exactly was in it.
- [15:34]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, it's a three team trade with the Bulls. We're looking.
- [15:36]
Bill Simmons
I remember the three team but I don't like who did they give up? Anybody of substance other than those two picks? No.
- [15:45]
Zach Lowe
They did not know Collins and Trey Jones has been pretty good for the Bulls and they have. I think there's a 2031 Minnesota pick or swap in there that could be potentially valuable. And of course just like the spurs got Harrison Barnes from a. From a Bulls Kings depressing for depressing trade. They. They get like they just jump into these Bulls King or these Bulls Kings trade that should be banned by that should have been the first question at the Adam Silver press conference tonight. Are you going to ban the Bulls and the Kings from trade? Forget expansion, forget Seattle, Vegas and all this. The spurs are things just fall into the spurs last from the incompetence of these two other teams who can't stop trading with each other.
- [16:25]
Bill Simmons
That would be funny if they just banned teams from trading with each other. Like how you'd ban people from going out together.
- [16:31]
Zach Lowe
We already had to ban teams from like you can't trade picks anymore. You've traded too many picks. You're banned for trading picks.
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Todd McShay
Like why?
- [16:38]
Bill Simmons
Why not? I love that he has no answer for the Rozier trade is my was my favorite in the press conference.
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Zach Lowe
I didn't see the question. What was the question?
- [16:47]
Bill Simmons
The question was basically are you close to resolution? Mark Stein had this I tweeted about was hold on. Oh yeah, Adam, this Stein tweeted this. Adam Silver says in Las Vegas, quote, there's no obvious solution here to the trade status of Miami's Terry Roger and calls it, quote, unprecedented. I mean there is an obvious solution. He's the commissioner. He could just make a solution. Either wave the pick or make it so that you can trade the contract even though the guy's being investigated. But you can't not do anything. But story for another time.
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Zach Lowe
Story for another time.
- [17:29]
Bill Simmons
So flag Harper, Con Queen, cowardice. You love this draft class.
- [17:35]
Zach Lowe
Edgecomb.
- [17:36]
Bill Simmons
Edgecomb. There's a couple other good ones. Let's talk Knicks because we weren't fair we didn't talk about the Knicks enough and that was a big win for them when they have their five and we let's say we know they're going to have their five for four rounds plus Robinson plus Clarkson, Yabaselli at some point Kolek. Let's say they have their nine. They don't have any injuries. Is that a team that you think could actually beat whoever comes out of the West?
- [18:04]
Zach Lowe
I would say no. I mean, look, once you get to the Finals, obviously you're a break an injury, an ankle sprain, a wild occurrence, a flake or foul suspension, something like that away from you're in the game. But I would pick the, you know, top three teams in the West, Denver, Houston, Oklahoma City over the Knicks for sure. I would say I think it's not I don't think it's their five. I think it's their six. I think Robinson start come off the bench, whatever. Like he's that important to their team where they have these six start. And I do think they're going to sniff around for one other guy. It's hard for them to do it because of how close they are to the second apron, but I think they're going to sniff around for one other bench guy because Clarkson's been up and down. Yabaselli didn't even play tonight. Shamet, you know, every time he seems to cement a role in somebody's rotation, something happens and he doesn't have a role in the rotation anymore. So I think they'll sniff around. But look, everyone's got a puncher's chance in the finals, but they'd be a huge underdog over against any of those teams.
- [19:02]
Bill Simmons
I think I still like Yavicelli.
- [19:05]
Todd McShay
I do, too.
- [19:05]
Zach Lowe
I don't understand what's happening.
- [19:08]
Bill Simmons
Might be the wrong team for him. There is a team for him. I'm just not sure who it is.
- [19:12]
Zach Lowe
Wait, so you. But you. You agree that you would. You would not take the Knicks over the. Over any of those teams?
- [19:16]
Bill Simmons
I think the top three in the west are levitating over everybody else. And then I think it's probably next year. Spurs, Knicks, Spurs. Slightly higher ceiling because of who knows with Wembanyama and who knows with those young guys. And who knows what happens with Castle and Harper, and then who knows if they're going to make a trade. We talked about this. When? I can't remember. You were on my podcast last. I can't remember who was on whose last, but we talked. Oh, it was when I was in New York City about the. What would Sam Presti do, applying that philosophy to. What would you do if you were like, let's say the spurs in this case? Would you go for it? I just wouldn't. I would ride with this team for a year. I wouldn't do anything crazy. There are. There are deals, like, they could put together contracts for a guy making 50 million a year. Like, they could, if they wanted, make a run at somebody like Anthony Davis. Right. Somebody of that ilk in that range, they could make a run. Not that they would get Kawhi Leonard because he wouldn't go back to San Antonio, but one of these vet sets in that range. Yeah. I'm just saying, I don't think they will. I think this is. Hey, this is awesome. We're way ahead of schedule. Harper is already playing real minutes for us. Castle made this huge leap. We have a deep team. Like, why would we do anything? Let's see how this goes. The reason you wouldn't do that is because you have these expiring contracts and just like you have tradable contracts right now that you might not have in a year and that would be the reason to do it now. But I would stand pat. What would you do?
- [20:50]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, I think since we did that podcast a month ago, Fox has come back and made you curious as to what this team could look like. They thrived with Wemby out. Wemby watched all that and you can kind of feel him figuring out, okay, like these guys can all do a lot of stuff. I could do the most stuff, but how does my stuff fit with their stuff? The two guards have both gone up a level. Like the conversation about a blockbuster involving any of those pieces is, is over and put aside for the seat. They're just not doing it. I think I, I can see something to your point about we've got to do something with these contracts. Is there a Sohan plus Olynic or so like Sohan being a guy who some team might be intrigued by doesn't as a second draft kind of player, you know, and three seconds, does that get us another guy who can shoot a little bit and come in and play 15 minutes for us in the playoffs? They've reached the status where that kind of trade, that kind of smaller win now trade could really, really help them.
- [21:50]
Bill Simmons
I mean, could it be a Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Kelly Olenek for Davis and Exum or fill in a max player with another small contract and you throw in some picks and you just make a run for it? I just wouldn't do it.
- [22:04]
Zach Lowe
That's up. That's. I use the word upheaval a lot to describe mid season trades that are just so gigantic in how they conceptually trade your that you have to pause for a second and remember what you're asking and what you're doing in a trade like that is A, you're doing like a 2 for 1 or a 3 for 1 so your depth gets shallower right off the bat and B, you're being like, all right, Wemby in year three with, you know, a lot of injuries the last two years, just figure it out with another guy who's a center and has a broken jump shot. Just figure that out in 30 games. Good luck. It's a lot.
- [22:37]
Bill Simmons
And then cuz, because I think this is a position Detroit's in which we talked about in New York, you also, you have really good chemistry and you have a team that likes each other and you're trading key guys that are a piece of that. Like Harrison Barnes. You could see Olynek like as the old veteran towel waiver guy. Detroit Harris has to be in any trade. I think Harris is important for them. I think he's a great teammate. You could see last night in the Celtics game, like he had some really good moments in that game.
- [23:04]
Zach Lowe
That was a good win for Detroit, by the way. I know you didn't enjoy it, but that was a tough, like fun. Fired up home crowd, fired up Celtics. A lot of media coverage. Chip on their shoulder, guys that you talked about. Everyone's got something to prove. That was a nice win for the Pistons.
- [23:18]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, my dad went to that game. He was outraged by the officiating almost, which is par for the course these days. But he was saying the Celtics, the way they're. They're put together now, they can, they can basically match anybody's game. Unless it's like Houston just pounding the boards on them. They can't really survive something. Like the Javante Green thing, he just went nuts for four minutes and that, that tilted the game, the game for them. Like, all right, we can kind of go toe to toe with Cade and Duran, but if this is going to happen, we don't have enough at this point. But my dad, you know, Jalen had his classic awesome Jalen game, but then missed the two free throws at the end. But my dad was like, he wasn't even that mad about the missed free throws at the end. Cause he's like, you gotta go to the game and see like how fucking hard Jaylen Brown is playing. Like, he is playing every possession, every minute, like at like it's like a game seven and it's unbelievable. And he's done it the whole year. I think he's been one of the best 12 guys in the league. But they just, they're missing that one guy, which is like, that's why the Tatum comeback, which I know you talked about a tiny bit yesterday. But the Tatum just giving the Shireman and half of the houser minutes to 25 minutes of Tatum is going to be worth like five points to this team. So that's that. That's an. I know we're going to talk about what do you do teams later. But that's a team where I don't know what they do because they could try to get under the. That last tax and really reset the rest of the decade or they could look around in the east and be like, ah, fuck it. Like, we're not that far away. Fuck it.
- [24:51]
Zach Lowe
I think the Next month is going to be telling like how bunched up the east is right now from three to nine. You know, you could go on a three game winning streak and suddenly be ninth and or three game losing streak and suddenly be ninth. We'll see, we'll see what things look like. I, I, you know, I don't think they're going to do anything super aggressive regardless of where they are. It's more like will they, will they sell to try to cut their tax bill?
- [25:13]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, it's the, it's the shaving and you talked about this on the, on your pod yesterday. But it's something I think we've both been hearing. There's no Yanis trade. There just isn't. The three teams in the west aren't trading for him and San Antonio is not trading for him. Those trades aren't happening. You go around the league. Cleveland can't trade for him. They're $22 million over the second apron. They have no chance of trading for him.
- [25:39]
Zach Lowe
There are ways. They're complicated, but they're very complicated. But there are ways, but there are.
- [25:42]
Bill Simmons
You need a lot of help from a lot of teams and that leaks as you're trying to get the help.
- [25:47]
Zach Lowe
Well, and their other problem is like of course they're going to do their best to hold out Mobley in any kind of talks like that. But like Garland and Allen's trade value is, you know, as low as it's ever going to be right now and that's not a good place to be dealing from.
- [26:02]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. And Alan's in the Allen's at 20 this year, but then it jumps to 30 next year with that extension he signed. So if you're trading for Jared Allen, you're paying him 90 million starting a year from now. But well, we'll take a break and then let's do some what do you do situation. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. This NBA season on FanDuel, it's all about the boost. You heard me. Game days being your chance to boost your bet, make every play pay off. All customers get a 30% SGP and parlay prop up boost. We have a lot of Thursday games on the slate, including Detroit at Dallas. I like the way Dallas is playing. They're in all of these games. They might even be underdogs in that game. Orlando, Denver is going to be a really good one. Just take Denver. They just lost Golden State. Phoenix is another one. I think Golden State is in real, real, real trouble. So I would look at Phoenix in that one anyway the games never stop with FanDue. You've got more ways to make every win even bigger. So locking your bets booster odds make every night count with FanDuel official sports betting partner of the NBA. You must be 21 + President select states or 18 + in President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in required bonus issued as non withdrawable profit boost tokens Restrictions apply including any token expiration max wager amount. See terms@sportsbook.fandrel.com, gAM problem call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Chattconneticut this episode is brought to you by Amazon. Say hello to the all new Alexa. Plus see how Alexa can do so much more for you. Need tickets to the finals, rides to get there, and a place to eat around the stadium. Help organize your schedule so you never miss a kickoff. I actually need that. Or just craving your game day spread? I'm always craving it. Just sit back, relax and talk naturally. I didn't even talk naturally right there. Just sit back, relax and talk naturally. I did it. Alexa's on it and learns your style, anticipates what's next and makes it happen across echo and Fire TV and much more. Learn more@Amazon.com New Alexa all right, Zach, this game is called what do you do?
- [28:17]
Zach Lowe
Excited.
- [28:18]
Bill Simmons
We're running some of these teams. What do we do? Let's start with the Clippers. Every time I think they've hit rock bottom, it gets worse. I've never been offered Clipper tickets. More even from people who know I have Clipper tickets than in the last two weeks. The it's really we're back to 2010 Z Bo playing with overweight Baron Davis. Days of just just dark, dark, dark Clipper times. And there's no move. On top of everything else, on top of the fact that there's some whispers that this is the Balmer punishment. Just be ready for a holiday news drop on that one. Some whispers like a Friday, 5:30 day after Christmas type of situation. They have to get something out. As we're getting closer to the All Star Game now that the Clippers are hosting, they cannot go into the All Star Game without having announced what happened. And I think we're moving closer to finding out what the punishment will be. If there will be a punishment. All right, that's interesting. But I don't know what they do. They don't have their pick. They have expensive Players that I don't think anybody wants and I don't know what the trade is like. Go through the other 29 teams and ask yourself who would want James Harden for $40 million a year. I can't think of a single team except one. And I'm interested to know if you would think it's the same team as I did.
- [29:50]
Zach Lowe
Well, it has to be either a decent team or a desperate team or both.
- [29:58]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. So. So, so do we rule out Sacramento in this because.
- [30:02]
Zach Lowe
Oh, we should.
- [30:03]
Bill Simmons
Desperate don't know because Sacramento is always available to trade. So you, I mean the right count.
- [30:08]
Zach Lowe
The right answer to a lot of these questions is going to be Milwaukee if they're trying to salvage the end game.
- [30:15]
Bill Simmons
Guess who coach. Guess who coach James Harden in Philly. Yeah, that's a no way. That's Doc just getting on a plane and coming home if that happens. So Milwaukee is the desperate team but Milwaukee is also not trading from James Harden. I think there's one trade.
- [30:32]
Zach Lowe
I'm just going to. I'm not going to guess you go ahead.
- [30:36]
Bill Simmons
What about Lamelo and Harden in a deal together? If you're Charlotte and you like your team and you struck oil with Knipple and Brandon Miller's back and Bridges is good and you're in the east and you're not going to be one of the three worst teams in the east, there's just no scenario where you're going to be in the bottom three. Your team has too much talent. What if you just turn Lamello and Harden and now you have Harden, Knipple, Bridges, Brandon Miller and some big guys and now you might be a playing team. Then maybe you just do that over riding this Lamelo roller coaster for a minute more. And if you're the Clippers, Lamelo changes scenery. He's one of the most famous players in the league with people under 30. I think he has the biggest social media of anyone other than LeBron.
- [31:23]
Zach Lowe
It.
- [31:24]
Bill Simmons
It changes your. Your team. I just, I thought it was an interesting one. I thought it was a.
- [31:30]
Zach Lowe
Could I hang a banner in Inuit dome that says second biggest social media following if behind LeBron? Because I need to hang a banner. I need to hang a banner for something.
- [31:39]
Bill Simmons
You could do that. That sounds great.
- [31:40]
Zach Lowe
The only way that makes sense to me since the Clippers have no extras to send me or minimal extras to send me, I have to hate his contract and the entire experience of Lamelo ball so much that just four years of this contract at 40 plus a year, 45, 42 a year. Whatever it is that I'm. That's a dump. That's not. Forget the play in and like all this stuff about we're trying to win a little bit now with James Harden. Like that's, that's, that's a, that's a disguise. The real trade is a salary dump and I am not, I'm not there with as. As bad as this year has been shooting wise and health wise yet again with the ankle problems. I'm. I'm not there. I'm not even close to there. Like I'm not even, I'm not even considering that if I'm Charlotte. Sorry.
- [32:22]
Bill Simmons
Not even considering it.
- [32:24]
Zach Lowe
No.
- [32:25]
Bill Simmons
Not considering. On the flip side, if you're the Clippers, you're not putting Zubots in that trade.
- [32:31]
Zach Lowe
No.
- [32:31]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [32:32]
Zach Lowe
No.
- [32:33]
Bill Simmons
So we're not working together then.
- [32:34]
Zach Lowe
The Clippers have not been able. The Clippers have shoved away people calling. The vultures are circling with Zubots. I'm aware the Clippers are shoving people away.
- [32:44]
Bill Simmons
I don't know if it's shoving. I think it's gentle pushing. Okay, so let me just get this straight. I'm trying to figure this out from your end because usually you're a pretty rational guy. Lamelo Ball Year 6 We haven't really seen any indication that he's going to be a serious professional who's in shape affecting a team in all of these winning ways for longer than like two three week stretches at a time.
- [33:14]
Zach Lowe
Disagree.
- [33:16]
Bill Simmons
He's played 51, 75, 36, 22, 47 in 16 games this year. And Zach Lowe, the most rational guy I know is telling me it's not time it. I need to see more.
- [33:32]
Zach Lowe
I think he has the most trade value of the. Does anybody really want these guys point guards Trey Young, John Morant and LA Ball. And it's not and it's. And it's not close. I was actually talking to a GM about this very thing today. Another. Another guy on lamelo ball still might be good island with me.
- [33:52]
Bill Simmons
So you're on the island.
- [33:54]
Zach Lowe
I'm just not like look it it. I've used the word carnival a lot to describe lamelo ball. Like it's, it's a little bit carnival esque and. And he flirts with getting a little bit more serious about time and score and yeah baby, don't do the one legged three when we're down two with 45 seconds left in the game and there's 20 on the shot clock. Maybe don't do that four. We'll have to remind you Again in a week. I get it. You can't teach the height. You can't teach division. And this year aside, I'm ignoring the shooting this year. It's been an awful. It's been awful, awful, awful. I trust the sample size. I'm just not like it's. I'm not as optimistic as I was six months ago or whatever. I don't think it's going great. I just. Why am I doing this for 36 year old James Harden is what he's going to come to Charlotte and do what? Just dribble all the time. He's just going to dribble, dribble, dribble. Conkey nipples going to be like what? He's going to be motivated to do what exactly in Charlotte? Get paid and demand a trade to another team. That's better. Why am I doing that?
- [34:53]
Bill Simmons
Salary dump.
- [34:54]
Zach Lowe
I'm not dumping that salary. It's not that bad of a salary.
- [34:58]
Bill Simmons
Okay, I'm standing.
- [34:59]
Zach Lowe
I'm standing.
- [35:00]
Bill Simmons
So you're. You're calling Sacramento. That sounds like your move is. You're calling Sacramento and trying to talk Vivek and his team of brilliant front office advisors for some sort of lamelo where you can get multiple players back. Do you try to get Sabonis back for Lamelo?
- [35:16]
Zach Lowe
I don't care. With apologies to Damonta. Sabonis is tremendous. If from this. I mean we're like in crazy town now like the Hornets and the Kings talking about a deal with Sabonis and Lamelo ball. We've gone full on into the. Into crazyville. But if I'm. If with all due respect to the Kings players, the only thing I want to. I really want out of the Kings in this theoretical crazy town trade is draft picks attached to the Sacramento Kings with no protections on them, AKA the most golden of gold chips in the NBA.
- [35:46]
Bill Simmons
So you're saying lamelo for contracts and give us some of your.
- [35:49]
Zach Lowe
Just trick the Kings into thinking that they're the ones who are going to bring out all this potential in LaMelo Ball. Trick them into saying to use all the social media data I've got about how this is going to revolutionize. Get the fans who are so just done with this Kings team. Get him. Get young fans back in the seats. He likes cowbells. Just ever. Just whatever stupid sales pitches I can come up with.
- [36:13]
Bill Simmons
So it's like a yeah, we'll take Schroeder and we'll take Malik Monk. Take one more contract and we'll take your first rounder this year and how about a swap three years from now? And what about, like, your 2033 first? So that's how. That's like seven years from now. Yeah. What do you think, Vivek?
- [36:33]
Zach Lowe
You'll have been chased out of town by a mob with pitchforks by then, just so you don't care about that pick, right?
- [36:38]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. Right. All right. I'm glad we talked that out. I kind of like the idea of Harden. Yeah, I liked it more than you. You. So you think Harden would just go to Charlotte and just pack it in? I think he'd kind of like living down there.
- [36:51]
Zach Lowe
Great. What does it do for me? What does it do for my. What does it do for anybody?
- [36:55]
Bill Simmons
I'm just trying to get out of Lamello before the stock drops. I mean, case in point, the John Morant stock dropping and the Trae Young stock dropping. Right. There's an inflection point where all of a sudden you don't have the asset in the same way. Which brings us to the Grizzlies and John Morant in the Grizzlies.
- [37:13]
Zach Lowe
So wait, our decision about what are you going to do with the Clippers? Is just cry. Cry and try to get a media job? Is that the answer? Yeah.
- [37:19]
Bill Simmons
You said Zubots is untouchable. I didn't say that.
- [37:22]
Zach Lowe
I said they're shoving away, that's all.
- [37:24]
Bill Simmons
Is there a team in the league that would trade for Kawhi? Like, would Detroit be like, yeah, let's try Kawhi.
- [37:31]
Zach Lowe
I think you'd have to look at the desperation teams, of which the Clippers are one, and they already have Kawhi.
- [37:38]
Bill Simmons
Maybe they should trade Kawhi to themselves.
- [37:40]
Zach Lowe
It's going to be. It's going to be tough.
- [37:44]
Bill Simmons
I don't see a market for Kawhi. The only way is if it, like, went horribly with LeBron, and. But then even that doesn't make sense because LeBron's going to want to be on a playoff team. I can't think of a team for him. Grizzlies, John Morant, Brooklyn doesn't hurt their tanking plan because he doesn't play anyway. It's like, oh, no, he's going to help us win games. Like, no, don't worry about that. He's going to be street close, and you could try to talk yourselves into, yeah, next year we'll put him on the front of Barclays, go get some fenies pizza, watch John Morant.
- [38:23]
Zach Lowe
He's gonna. He's gonna displace Tyrese Martin from the life. The, like, five times Larger than life billboards on the side of Barclays Center.
- [38:31]
Bill Simmons
He could be the last guy in the jumbotron thing that they. When they show the five guys with the music and. No, the Brooklyn Nets with the guys like standing next to skyscrapers. Cam Thomas doing the turnarounds.
- [38:43]
Zach Lowe
All right, so the Nets just drafted three point guards and a couple other point somethings. In some ways, whatever Danny Wolf is.
- [38:53]
Bill Simmons
And yeah, probably doesn't make sense.
- [38:55]
Zach Lowe
I'm still bringing in John Morant, who's shooting like 0% from 3 and a little bit of 0 from 2.
- [39:01]
Bill Simmons
We do in the NFL, we talk about like during the NFL season in like week 15, there will be a gambling line for a game and it'll be like Patriots seven points over, I don't know, Pittsburgh and be like, whoa, before the season, the look ahead line was Pittsburgh by four. That line shifted 11 points. The same thing with a John Morant trade. We'd be like, wow, Brooklyn could just get John Morant for nothing. If I had told you that in August, they would have jumped at that. But now it's December. But yeah, I think you're right. And that's the only team I could think of because they have the cap space, they could accommodate any kind of deal. They have a couple guys to give back. Other than that, I don't. Where's John Moran going?
- [39:43]
Zach Lowe
The old. The team that was by far the best John Moran team in every possible way is Sacramento. Contracts need a point guard.
- [39:51]
Bill Simmons
Keep throwing them everything.
- [39:52]
Zach Lowe
I mean, you could have made a case for a few teams when, when the first disgruntled John Morant news conference thing happened. You could have made a case for Miami. You could have made a case for a couple other teams, Orlando, whatever. Like, so much has happened. All of it good for those teams, most of it good. Miami's on a losing streak and bad for Moranta. Like, I just don't. If, if he doesn't look substantially better than he's looked in the, this whole season in the next six weeks. Like, I don't, I don't think he's tradable right now, to be honest. Like, he's, he's just a. He's not playing well. He's a negative for his team.
- [40:29]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, we see this happen in football sometimes where with like tight ends and wide receivers that played with a certain level of physicality and then they get a little older and the physicality fades away a little bit and there's not like a plan B, which is what I see when I watch him because the greatest thing about him was also the thing that made us worry that his career was going to be cut short. Like his just recklessness going to the rim. It was unbelievable. And now. Now that he doesn't quite have the same recklessness, not really sure what's going on. Not to mention he can't play all the time.
- [41:00]
Zach Lowe
He can't make. He's shooting poorly from the rim, from floater range, from three, where he's always been a poor shooter. It's just not going well. If I'm the grizzle. I'll tell you what I am doing. I'm calling the Warriors. I'm trying to get Pat Spencer, and I'm uniting the Lacks brothers on one team. I want both the Lacks bros on one team.
- [41:19]
Bill Simmons
I'm sorry to my podcast audience that I was so late on this Lacks story. I think it's one of the great stories of the decade for the NBA. I can't believe that somebody played lacrosse for four years and came back to college with their fifth year of eligibility and basically walked onto a basketball team and within a couple years as part of the warriors rotation. This is a sports movie. This makes no sense. And these are two sports that don't really have a lot in common. I could see if it was like, he played lacrosse and now he's in the mls or he played MLS and now he's playing professional lacrosse. But going from lacrosse to basketball was just. It kind of broke my brain. And he might be the number one irrational confidence guy in the league this year. The warriors version and his brother might be second.
- [42:05]
Zach Lowe
When he gets going, it's Pat Spencer. I have to remind myself, Pat's on the Warriors. Cam's on the Grizzlies. When Pat Spencer gets going, the warriors, the bench is super, super into it. They clearly like him a lot.
- [42:17]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, he really carries himself. Yeah. So, Ja, Sacramento. Which brings me to the next. What he do is Sacramento. And here's what I wrote down before we even started talking about this. Kings, you have to roll the dice with Zion, Trey, LaMelo, or Ja. I think their season is at that point, like, you just gotta. You're now at the roulette table and you've already lost a ton of money. And you're like, fuck it, I'll put it on black. And that's it. 22 red. And you're at that stage of the night. And I just think if I. Out of those four guys, I would roll the dice on Zion over the. Over the three guards. I don't Know where you stand. How do you rank them?
- [42:58]
Zach Lowe
I mean, he's certainly the most interesting, and his contract offers me the most flexible because of how it becomes. It only becomes guaranteed, basically, year over. It's like non guaranteed until it's guaranteed every year. But talk about a guy who never plays. I mean, when I saw his name in the box score the other day, I was like, oh, okay. My brain just sort of assumed, I won't see Zion again for a long, long time. And now he's back.
- [43:24]
Bill Simmons
He's on the Pleasant Surprise All Stars. When you're in league, pass like, set. Zion. Hey, he's playing.
- [43:31]
Zach Lowe
And the thing about this discussion, less so with the other guys is what's in this for me as the Pelicans? Yeah, I get off this Zion thing how he never plays and his conditioning is an off and on issue, and just the whole franchise seems to just be held in limbo because of him. And I. And I get that. For the honor of Zach Levine opting into a $49 million deal next year, or is DeMar DeRozan involved?
- [44:01]
Bill Simmons
Are you reporting that?
- [44:02]
Zach Lowe
What? No, I'm just. I'm not reporting that. I'm just saying if I'm Zach Levine, I'm.
- [44:06]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I think he's opting in.
- [44:09]
Zach Lowe
Or, you know, I mean, Sabonis is a good player, but why am I doing that for the Kings? I'm trading, like, the only good thing about my franchise for Zion Williamson. I just. It's a hard one. The guards are more interesting to me because they do, actually. You could sell the fan base on. We overpaid Dennis Schroeder to be the only point guard who plays really on our team, and then we had to get Russell Westbrook to be another one. And we don't play the point guard that we drafted a couple years ago. Or like, we, like we got. This is something.
- [44:40]
Bill Simmons
They really didn't have to sign Russell Westbrook.
- [44:43]
Zach Lowe
You know, what they didn't have to do is trade Tyrese Halliburton and alienate de' Aaron Fox to the point that he also wanted to be traded and then ends up with no point guards.
- [44:51]
Bill Simmons
They didn't also have to get rid of Mike Brown to hire Doug Christie. Golden State.
- [44:57]
Zach Lowe
Oh, boy.
- [44:58]
Bill Simmons
So my dream scenario for them would be them getting Sabona somehow, but there's really no way to do it without them trading Jimmy Butler. So I don't want to. I don't think they want to lose his 12 shots a game, so probably keep him. I don't Know what Golden State does?
- [45:14]
Zach Lowe
That almost went. That almost slipped by me.
- [45:17]
Bill Simmons
Ah, it's like three shots a quarter. You got, you got to keep him.
- [45:20]
Zach Lowe
Did you see the email story today? You know, the Joe lacob email story.
- [45:25]
Bill Simmons
So what was it exactly? I heard about it. I forgot to deep dive it because I was busy doing a bunch of stuff. Was it an email to like owners or to a fan?
- [45:34]
Zach Lowe
A fan emailed lacob a fan. Justin Dutari. I hope I'm pronouncing your name right. Telling Lake up that he needs a quote real second option that Jimmy Butler's quote tools are being underutilized and blaming the lack of positional size on the roster. I am so frustrated. Dutarity sorry, ended his email. Lacob replies. You can't be as frustrated as me. I am working on it. It's complicated style of play. Coaches desires regarding players, league trends. Jimmy is not the problem. And then the guy publishes the exchange on Reddit. Oh no.
- [46:12]
Bill Simmons
See we can't have nice things. You can't just have an owner responding to a fan. Just giving the guy some time puts it on there.
- [46:19]
Zach Lowe
So people, people dove into the coaches desires regarding players as a Steve dig. Yeah, yeah. Not thinly veiled dig at Steve Curry.
- [46:29]
Bill Simmons
Oh yeah. I saw, I saw his press conference where he was basically like, oh yeah, Joe's being Joe, whatever he said. I actually watched the last two warriors games where Curry was awesome in both games and they lost and I thought that was alarming. They should never lose games when he's awesome.
- [46:46]
Zach Lowe
You think Curry hitting 12 threes.
- [46:49]
Bill Simmons
You should get a W. That should be a guaranteed. We definitely win in this game. And the fact that they didn't, I think would make me super nervous if I was paying that money for a Warriors roster, if I was rooting for the team. I don't think they have a lot of outs other than either trading Jimmy or draymond. Kaminga's getting DNPs. The, the fantasy land of them getting a real asset for him in January 15th is comical. It's same thing for like Cam Thomas. Like the Nets are going to be able to trade Cam Thomas right now. What do you, what are you getting for him?
- [47:18]
Zach Lowe
Well, he's, he's injured too and he's.
- [47:20]
Bill Simmons
Well, that's what I mean. But they were like we'll sign him and whatever. But then he wasn't even playing well before he got injured.
- [47:26]
Zach Lowe
No, I think it's, it's Kaminga and picks, you know, because the warriors have picks at their speaker 2 but if.
- [47:30]
Bill Simmons
I'm the warriors, why am I trading picks for. For what purpose? I'm going to be one of the three best teams in the West. There's no trade that fixes them. Let's give them every asset they have. They trade for Giannis. Are they one of the best three teams in the West? They're not. I wouldn't do that. Let's say they could trade Jeremon and Butler and all their picks for Giannis and Kuzma. Does that do anything for them? I don't think it does.
- [47:54]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. It gives you a little bit of a better roadmap for, like, the immediate post Steph era, but no, this year, I mean, not only are they not one of the top three teams in the west, they're going. They're going to have to go through the play in again, which means they're going to have to struggle to get to eighth or the seventh seed and get hammered by one of these teams that they. Top of the West. It's just. They're too small. Looks over. It's been over and it's. It's just riding it out now.
- [48:19]
Bill Simmons
I can't say how Horford has come back to haunt the Celtics.
- [48:23]
Zach Lowe
I don't know what it is with this. It's. It's a string of coincidences, mostly.
- [48:32]
Bill Simmons
People leaving Boston and then not being good.
- [48:34]
Zach Lowe
Like, Porzingis is sick again. Like, I just wouldn't. And I know that started in Boston, so it's not quite apple apples. It's like, what? I just. I'm not going to trade for anyone from the Celtics for a little while. I'm still a little like. Marcus Smart is having a little bit of a revival.
- [48:48]
Bill Simmons
It's been a lot. This is interesting. From Isaiah Thomas.
- [48:52]
Zach Lowe
From Isaiah Thomas to now these guys get traded from the Celtics or leave the Celtics. Al Horford didn't get traded, but it's like, buyer beware. I don't know what's going on. Buyer beware. Drew Holiday. They got to, like, rescind draft picks in the. Like, another trade.
- [49:06]
Bill Simmons
Robert Williams.
- [49:09]
Zach Lowe
It's a lot. It's a lot of guys.
- [49:11]
Bill Simmons
It's pretty good. Boston's just such a great place to live. People don't know what to do when they leave. I had Charlotte written down just with the question, how do I turn Lamelo into a guard and a big man? Can I get. Turn him into two guys somehow?
- [49:26]
Zach Lowe
Sure. You want Zach Levine and Demonte Sabonis?
- [49:30]
Bill Simmons
I don't know if I want Zach Ovine with the Montesso bonus you want. I think that would be their goal.
- [49:35]
Zach Lowe
Do you want Jeremy Grant and Robert Williams.
- [49:40]
Bill Simmons
For LaMelo?
- [49:42]
Zach Lowe
I'm just. I'm just throwing out. I'm literally looking at the standings and reading you.
- [49:46]
Bill Simmons
Jeremy Grant looked good the other night.
- [49:48]
Todd McShay
He's.
- [49:48]
Zach Lowe
He's fine.
- [49:49]
Bill Simmons
He's been playing well this year. Yeah. Well, anyway, I'd like to see Charlotte improve their team because I like some of their guys. Cleveland 22 million over the second apron. You seem to think they have more flexibility to do some movement than I do. I think it's been. People would say other teams are the most disappointing team in the league. Like the Clippers. The Clippers thing makes way more sense to me than Cleveland being basically a 500 team and not looking like they like playing basketball with each other. I think that's more surprising to me than the Clippers.
- [50:20]
Zach Lowe
A sea change from the feel good everyone sacrificed for the greater good. Ball's flying around, every shot's going in. And some of it is just the shots are not going in. But it doesn't look or feel the same. And maybe it's just as simple as the Garland like Garland appears to be a broken player physically right now with no end in sight to it.
- [50:40]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [50:41]
Bill Simmons
Cause you figure if. Even if they're going to decide we got to. Let's officially decide between Mitchell and Garland. It would be crazy to bet on Garland when physically. Even though a lot of that hasn't been his fault. But I just see it for four months.
- [50:56]
Zach Lowe
It's. There's no decision. It's Donovan Mitchell's team. The guy's been a first team level.
- [51:01]
Bill Simmons
I'm just saying like if. If you were like, wow, we get all this for Donovan Mitchell and we could still keep Moby and all that. Also I don't know where Mitchell would go. Yeah. The Cleveland thing. So it was the over under when we did the pod was 56 and a half.
- [51:14]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. You guys talked me into the over. I'm so.
- [51:17]
Bill Simmons
It was one of my locks.
- [51:18]
Zach Lowe
Do you remember? Do you remember I. I went under and you guys were aghast and we bullied you. So aghast that you bullied me. And it's like this is why you don't take shit from bullies. Just stick. Just stick to your freaking.
- [51:28]
Bill Simmons
It wasn't. You just get. Were jealous. We were making really good cases. I know Boston, we talked about. And then the last team is Dallas and I am in the. I don't think Dallas should do anything camp and I've been in that camp the entire time. And I think they're going to be a playing team no matter what happens and maybe even a little bit better than that when Kyrie comes back. Well, because that's a team that there's a real ceiling of. Kyrie can come back and play 25, 30 minutes a game. But I just, I like Davis next to Flag and I wouldn't want to break that up. I think he's had a huge impact on Flag when they played together. It's noticeable. I just wouldn't trade him. What would you think?
- [52:03]
Zach Lowe
I think you're right on, on this in part because I just don't think the offers to make it worth my while are going to be there. What I would not do is entertain extension talks with him unless there's a discount that is so staggering that I can't even imagine he would entertain it. But I'm fine rolling into next season with Kyrie plus Davis plus Flag plus whatever left over because they are aproned pretty severely coming up. I'm. I'm. I just don't think there's going to be anything like the optics of trading Luka for Anthony Davis and the flotsam they got and then trading Anthony Davis for like Kristaps Porzingis is expiring contract and a heavily protected first round pick is just whatever the fake deal you want to make is just so bad that it's. I'm not doing it.
- [52:46]
Bill Simmons
I'm not doing it either. But they traded Luca for Anthony Davis and Cooper Flag and a number one.
- [52:52]
Zach Lowe
Pick that was division.
- [52:55]
Bill Simmons
That's what the division was. Any other team we didn't mention.
- [52:58]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, there's a team that, I mean it's strange that we didn't mention them in any context. We didn't mention them among the good teams in the West. We didn't mention them among teams that could make an important trade in part because it's salary wise difficult for them to make a trade. The Minnesota Timberwolves are just sort of out there and nobody really talks about them except when they blow a lead in the most hilarious and inept fashion possible, which they seem to do once every two weeks. And that's just in the DNA of John Krasinski. And I literally have a text joke that we just text each other. Nobody melts down like the Minnesota Timberwolves after every single meltdown that happens. But they're pretty damn good and they're aware, I think, that they need another ball handler because this Dillingham Bones conglomerate is unproven. To say the least. And Mike Conley is old and out a lot. I just think for a team that's very good, has a top eight player at worst in Anthony Edwards, who I think is getting better every year. And another guy who's played at an all star level in Randall and McDaniels has made a leap, I think, it back to back conference finals. I think they're flying a little bit under the radar.
- [54:15]
Bill Simmons
I posited this to Rob Mahoney last week. A Rob Dillingham and a protected pick, like a heavily protected pick for Alvarado.
- [54:26]
Zach Lowe
That's too much for Jose Alvarado.
- [54:28]
Bill Simmons
How about Dillingham for Alvarado?
- [54:32]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, I'm just. I can't. If I'm Tim Connolly and I put in all that equity and this guy's a top 10 pick, I can't do it. I gotta. I gotta give him every chance to succeed. If what I'm getting back, he's a. A backup. Backup.
- [54:43]
Bill Simmons
What if he was the eighth pick of just a bad draft?
- [54:47]
Zach Lowe
He may well have been. Still not doing it.
- [54:51]
Bill Simmons
There's nothing more dangerous than overrating somebody who was taken high in a draft that turned out to be really awful.
- [54:57]
Zach Lowe
I don't think it's that dangerous if. I mean, I like Jose Alvarado. He's one of my favorite little sneaky guys to watch. I don't think it's that dangerous if all I'm missing out on is Jose Alvarado.
- [55:09]
Bill Simmons
Really hard for them to do anything unless it's the Dillingham deal and you have to put Conley in it, who's important to them from a leadership standpoint. And I don't really know the other player. I handed in my Ringer 100 today. I had some announcements. Okay. Alperin Chengun. Welcome to the top 15.
- [55:28]
Zach Lowe
Let me see where I had him.
- [55:31]
Bill Simmons
And 14th.
- [55:33]
Zach Lowe
I mean, I can tell you for sure. Not. Not unreasonable. I had him 15th. I had him 15th. So we're right. We're right in line.
- [55:45]
Bill Simmons
What was my next one? Oh, Con Canipple. Welcome to my top 40. I had him 40th.
- [55:52]
Zach Lowe
I did not have him 40th.
- [55:54]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I figured. No.
- [55:55]
Zach Lowe
Although. Although I will say once you get down. Once you get down to 30. Ish. The amount of flux in my rankings surprised me from just a month or two ago.
- [56:10]
Bill Simmons
Stefan Castle. Welcome to my top 50.
- [56:14]
Zach Lowe
51 for me.
- [56:16]
Bill Simmons
Adam 49.
- [56:18]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [56:19]
Bill Simmons
Kawhi Leonard.
- [56:21]
Zach Lowe
Oh, boy.
- [56:21]
Bill Simmons
Here's a parting gift. You've left the top 50 for me. I'm not sure when you're going to play and your team loses every week. Adam 54, probably lower than everybody else. But you know what?
- [56:35]
Zach Lowe
I had him. I've had him higher than that because he has played well this season. And again, like, there's a lot of flux. A lot of flux.
- [56:44]
Bill Simmons
Derek Queen.
- [56:46]
Zach Lowe
Yes, he's in.
- [56:47]
Bill Simmons
Welcome to my top 60. I had him 59.
- [56:52]
Zach Lowe
I mean, I can't argue with it. I had him. I had him 72 because I'm being conservative, but I had like all the good rookies are in my top 100 now.
- [57:01]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I had. I had Harper89 and I actually think. I wish I had him lower than that.
- [57:07]
Zach Lowe
I had Harper 83 and again in a month he could be 48. Like that's how. That's how much flux there is.
- [57:15]
Bill Simmons
Did you go Jokic, sga, Giannis, Luka, Wembanyama, or did you have something different? Okay, I did. And then Edward 6. 7. Who'd you have 6?
- [57:28]
Zach Lowe
Stephen Curry.
- [57:30]
Bill Simmons
I had him 8. I had Brunson slightly ahead of Curry.
- [57:34]
Todd McShay
It's fine.
- [57:35]
Zach Lowe
I mean Brunson, Edwards, Curry, Brunson are 6, 7, 8. Mitchell, nine in some, in some order.
- [57:41]
Bill Simmons
Where'd you have the heart of the Celtics? Jalen Brown, 12. I had him 12 as well. All right, sounds like we were land. Oh, last one. Jalen Johnson, 22, Adam 20.
- [57:55]
Zach Lowe
And there's a case that he could be. I think 16 is probably his ceiling. But if you wanted to say based on his recent play that you have him over some of the guys I have in the 16 to 21 range, which is Booker, Town, Siakam, guys like that, I'd be fine with that.
- [58:13]
Bill Simmons
He's been jumping out of the TV this year and we didn't talk about Atlanta and I'm sure Atlanta is going to do something, especially with the Porzingis contract that is now an expiring. They have a giant trade exception and they should make a move when there's a spot open in these finals. Right now, I feel like next to the Knicks, I want us to do something. It's the one Giannis team that could happen. It's one Davis team that could happen. It's the one name of star team that could happen. I think if it's either a big guy, any sort of more reliable guard or slash swing, I don't know if they are ready to get rid of Trey. I don't know. We've heard on that.
- [58:51]
Zach Lowe
But I think for the right price, for sure they would. Not for sure, but I think they would. I'm glad you brought, brought Giannis back up because before you said there's no Giannis trade and the top of the west teams are out. And I, I generally, I mean, I said on my pod yesterday or Monday that I'm starting to wonder if this is going to be a summer thing after all. Like we all thought it was going to be before the season when he, you know, when they signed Thanasis and he sort of recommitted publicly for the year.
- [59:27]
Bill Simmons
That's my bet. Summer.
- [59:29]
Zach Lowe
I would bet that way too. But there's a couple of wild cards. Number one is Atlanta and number two is, and now there's all this noise. Is Milwaukee going to try to buy, to placate Giannis one last time or just try to save the season? Two contracts agreed, but the other wild card is like, he's out for a few more weeks. What if they're like 1 in 12 in their next 13 games and it's just the season is, is over, over for them? Like I, the wild card is always that. Plus he finally comes out and says it's time and then I think anything's possible other than that, other than Spurs, Rockets, you know, whatever.
- [60:09]
Bill Simmons
Right? You know, the problem is not having their pick makes this so much more complicated again.
- [60:16]
Zach Lowe
That's why I can't rule out the teams. I mean, Atlanta's got Milwaukee stuff, Portland is not going to trade for Giannis, but they've got Milwaukee stuff and would work their way, I think, into some kind of trade. Like, that's why I can't, I can't close the door completely.
- [60:29]
Todd McShay
All right.
- [60:31]
Bill Simmons
Have you closed the door in the 2026 Mets yet?
- [60:34]
Zach Lowe
No, I'm not happy. Not happy. But you know base baseball, there's a lot of off season left to go where it's. I'm, I'm a little, I'm, I'm a little sad still. You know what I, you know what I'm tired of? I'm tired of Instagram tributes to guys you couldn't even bother making a contract offer for. How about if you don't make a contract offer to the all time home run hitter on your franchise? You don't get to do an Instagram tribute to him, thanking him for all the great stuff he did to you. You just have to move on with life and say, good luck with the Orioles.
- [61:06]
Bill Simmons
Baseball. It'll break your heart.
- [61:08]
Zach Lowe
It will.
- [61:10]
Bill Simmons
You've only seen this once.
- [61:11]
Zach Lowe
One time.
- [61:12]
Bill Simmons
Boogie Nights just came out on 4k ultra. I paid for this, by the way, this is not a paid advertisement. This is my favorite movie the last 30 years.
- [61:20]
Zach Lowe
It's a great one. It's a great one to be watching on the night that your 10 year old daughter walks out and has to go to the bathroom in the middle of the movie and is like, hey.
- [61:28]
Bill Simmons
What'S mommy and daddy?
- [61:30]
Zach Lowe
What are mommy and daddy watching right now?
- [61:32]
Todd McShay
Yeah.
- [61:32]
Bill Simmons
And you have a violence free house too, though. You won't watch any TV shows, movies that cross the line in any way, right?
- [61:40]
Zach Lowe
I mean, I will.
- [61:43]
Bill Simmons
Everybody has to be gone.
- [61:45]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. I mean, for, for like, you know.
- [61:48]
Bill Simmons
I did have an idea for you because as, as everybody knows, you're team Croatia with the World cup coming.
- [61:54]
Zach Lowe
That's right, baby.
- [61:55]
Bill Simmons
And they're playing England, Chris Ryan's team. I think you guys should start feuding now. Like really build it up, WrestleMania style. Like let's get some angles, some bad blood.
- [62:07]
Zach Lowe
It always works. I can't wait for England in the World Cup.
- [62:10]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, let's go.
- [62:11]
Zach Lowe
That's.
- [62:11]
Bill Simmons
I'm talking about. Throw some darts.
- [62:14]
Zach Lowe
Does he want to talk about the 2018 semifinals at all or, or, you.
- [62:19]
Bill Simmons
Know, I don't know. Let's go. You should have him on.
- [62:23]
Zach Lowe
This is what's going on in my life right now, by the way. I did. So I have Croatia's schedule in the World Cup. They have their three group games. I have the NBA finals, the NBA draft and fifth grade graduation, end of elementary school all and like that day moves around based on how many snow days we get during the year. And I'm trying to triangulate all this and figure out which of Croatia's group games is the right one to go to. And I feel like I need to hire somebody because it's too complicated for.
- [62:53]
Bill Simmons
Me, like a personal assistant.
- [62:55]
Zach Lowe
But I'm go. I'm going for sure. Like it's, it's a bucket list thing for us that we're going. It's one way or the other we're going.
- [63:02]
Bill Simmons
My son graduated 8th grade from a school he was at for 10 years, the Willows School that we loved. And my daughter went there too. So it was really like 13 years at the Willows for us. And his last day, the graduation, I had to go. It was game four of the 2022 Warriors Celtics finals.
- [63:20]
Zach Lowe
Oh, boy.
- [63:21]
Bill Simmons
Which ended up becoming the Steph Curry game. So I knew if I stayed in la, I know I have these powers. I knew the Celtics were probably going to lose. I had that on my conscience. And then not only did they Lose. But it turned out to be the most important game of Steph Curry's career. And I'm kind of glad I wasn't there as the years pass, because, as you know, he's my favorite non Celtic. So watching my favorite non Celtic murder my team, I probably think I'd still be in my seat and it would have made me not like Steph Curry. So in a way, maybe it was good that I wasn't there.
- [63:52]
Zach Lowe
I don't think it would have. I was there, it was amazing. And I think you would have done a hat tip, a mental hat tip, and just gone and had a drink somewhere.
- [64:03]
Bill Simmons
It's crazy how much he needed it as the years passed now where, if that doesn't happen, there's a lot of yeah, but with his career. And that just, like, took away the yeah, but there's no yeah, but for him now. I mean, it's like Kobe in 2009. Same thing. Like you can. And it's going to be the yeah, but no more yeah, but fuck you.
- [64:21]
Zach Lowe
It's a fun and weird championship. And I sure, like people would have nitpicked the how many did he win before the Durant cap spike thing, but he's averaging 30 points a game right now for the four years.
- [64:33]
Bill Simmons
I know.
- [64:34]
Zach Lowe
It's like, I'm cool with. With Steph either way at this point.
- [64:38]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. And it'll be interesting to see how many more years he can be this good because there'll be moments during these games now where he just looks exhausted like that. Those two games, the recent two when he was exploding, they'll cut to him in the fourth quarter, and he's just like. He's almost, like, exasperated how hard his job is, but he knows. He still knows. He's great at it. I just don't know how sustainable that is. We'll see. They certainly don't make it easy for him. No, I'd like to see Jimmy Butler take more shots.
- [65:09]
Zach Lowe
You're like, did you. Is. Is. What did I say the guy's name was? Justin.
- [65:14]
Bill Simmons
That might have been me. Yeah. So let's run some plays for Jimmy Butler. Come on, guys.
- [65:20]
Zach Lowe
Sylbimons@gmail.com. email Joe Lacob Laser.
- [65:27]
Bill Simmons
He'll never spot another fan. All right, Zach Lowe, you got a podcast on Thursday. Did you get back in your Twitter account?
- [65:33]
Zach Lowe
Not yet. Not yet. We're working on it.
- [65:34]
Bill Simmons
Jesus.
- [65:35]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. All right.
- [65:36]
Bill Simmons
Good luck with that. Say hi to everybody in Connecticut. See you soon.
- [65:39]
Zach Lowe
See ya.
- [65:40]
Bill Simmons
Thanks. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra a crisp, refreshing beer with only 95 calories. And just like some of the best plays we've seen on the court throughout the NBA Cup, Ultra is best served cold. Plus, as the official beer partner of the NBA, Michelob Ultra is getting you closer to the action. With exclusive prizes and courtside tickets, Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at michelobulture.com courtside Michelob Ultra Courtside 25 to 26. No purchase necessary. Open to US residents 21/plus begins on October 1, 2025. Ends on June 30, 2026. Multiple entry periods. See official rules@mcglobal.com courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. This episode is brought to you by. ServiceNow AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into. That's why it's no surprise that more than 85% of the Fortune 500 use the ServiceNow AI platform. While other platforms duct tape tools together, ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data, workflows and AI connecting every corner of your business. And with AI agents working together autonomously, anyone in any department can focus on the work that matters Most. Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people@servicenow.com all right, we're taping this part of the podcast Tuesday afternoon. The man, the myth of legend is here. Todd McShay. His newsletter is fantastic. His podcast is great. This is McShay time right now. Playoffs for college, plus a draft board. You have a number one guy now. We'll talk about that in a second. I wanted to talk football. QBs, first in the NFL. I sent you a pyramid.
- [67:21]
Todd McShay
You did. First of all, I like it.
- [67:23]
Bill Simmons
First of all, Josh Allen is just right there. Now, number one, it's that this is like the least controversial number one argument we've had in a couple years, right? It's Allen drop off. Next guy. Who's your next guy?
- [67:36]
Todd McShay
First of all, I was at the game on. On Sunday with Allen versus May and, you know, a quarter in kind of felt like New England was establishing dominance and Drake had rushed for two touchdowns and. And the MVP chants are going and it just felt like, not a changing of guard, but it just, it almost felt strange, you know, like I'm watching Allen on the sideline and they don't have a lot of answers and things look easy for New England. And then the rest of the game happened. My takeaway was both can be great and both are great, but as the game progressed, especially in the conditions, it was freezing. It Was, you know, mild snow coming down. You could tell the difference was very clear that Josh Allen is just a more advanced passer at this point. Now, Drake May, if you go back and look at Allen early in his career, I mean, some of the inexperience, some of the lack of the pinpoint accuracy, you see the same things from Drake May. But it was very clear when the four quarters were over that one guy is a notch above. So when I see your pyramid here, I can't disagree with it. And I would absolutely have to have Stafford there. Stafford there as well. I always like to ask myself this question.
- [68:55]
Bill Simmons
I don't know Stafford too. So just so people know, I had Alan Stafford, May as May as the third guy right now.
- [69:02]
Todd McShay
And I asked myself this question. I'm kind of curious your process too, because we do it, whether it's in tears or a pyramid like you have here, when you think to yourself, all right, I got one opportunity and I'm going to go coach or I get to put together as GM this roster and I get to play one playoff game or super bowl, what? Everything on the line. Honestly, who am I going to take? Am I taking Stafford for that game or am I taking Drake May. And my answer right now is Stafford. I just lean on the experience. He's been through the wars. He's more pinpoint accurate. May brings mobility to the table that Stafford doesn't. But I just like my odds with Stafford more than I do regardless of the supporting cast. Throw that out of the window. So. So I would agree with you. 1, 2, 3. Here the third one.
- [69:48]
Bill Simmons
Can I stop you on that Stafford point? Yeah, I think that one of his best skills and it's certainly gotten better when he's been with McVeigh and he's had better talent. But there's a problem solving piece with him.
- [69:59]
Todd McShay
Yes.
- [70:00]
Bill Simmons
That I think is the last level for May. And he might be two. May is great. He might be two years away from like that game Sunday. You can feel it slipping away, right. Buffalo gets the ball to start the second half. Pat's dude, like a three and out or whatever happened. Buffalo scores again. And you know, at some point they only had one first down in the second half and it was on that long Henderson play, I think. Yeah, they just couldn't put together drives. And there was some point in that game where he had to realize, like, it's right now, I got to figure this out. And I just think he's a young qb, you know, and the game kind of slipped away. Whereas Allen I think he's been enough of these now where it's like 21 nothing. We're fine coming back. I've been here before. I don't care about the weather. We should be able to move the ball and come back. He's the number one guy for that right now. Where did you feel safe when it was 21? Nothing. Because I didn't.
- [70:54]
Todd McShay
Not completely. For New England. No, not completely. It felt like Buffalo had to figure out how it was going to attack on offense.
- [71:03]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [71:03]
Todd McShay
What I didn't expect was the poor tackling and the inability to stop the run at certain points in the game from New England. But that's, I guess, a different subject for a different day.
- [71:12]
Bill Simmons
And the flags. The flags were not great. Even Vrabel complained about the frags today. Flags. He pointed out that they had led the league in offensive holdings during the year. Buffalo. But they had none on Sunday. And it's like, that's just curious. He was doing that thing I hate.
- [71:28]
Todd McShay
Like, and I was there with young kids and, you know, I don't want to want anyone to think that any of this is rigged and you know.
- [71:35]
Bill Simmons
Like, no, because Buffalo deserved to win.
- [71:37]
Todd McShay
They did deserve to win. But two things can be true. They deserve to win. But if you are a conspiracy theorist, you're like, yeah, the NFL really doesn't want a playoff run without Mahomes and.
- [71:50]
Bill Simmons
Allen, you know, oh, now you're speaking my language. I love this.
- [71:54]
Todd McShay
This is your pain in my mind. And I'm always the last. I'm the. I'm the defender. I'm always on that wall. But it felt like that anyway. All right, I do want to get to this. Quarterbacking is not. The NFL is not fair. Right. In a lot of ways, like to athletes and how. And what the body can. What it can do to your body and all those sort of. Where it is fair is with quarterbacks. And I say this because early in careers, when you have your most mobility, whatever that is, whether it's Lamar Jackson, Drake May, Josh Allen mobility, or a lesser degree, when you're most mobile, you need that mobility because you don't have the problem solving of Stafford or Joe Burrow or obviously going back to like Manning and Brady and Breeze. So early in the career, you need that mobility. And Drake may gets himself out of a lot of the troubles that he still is, you know, working through his young quarterback with that mobility. But Stafford doesn't need it. You know, that's kind of the beauty. And he'll get to a point where he doesn't need it. Drake maybe nearly as much. The third rung, though, is where I start to have some issues.
- [73:00]
Bill Simmons
All right, I'll read it to the audience. So after Allen, Stafford, May, I had Love, Prescott, Purdy, then had Burrow, Lamar, Stroud, Goff, and Lamar is really legacy versus what we've actually seen this year. And then I had Herbert and Knicks 11 and 12, and I'm happy to move those guys up. Be my conciliary on this. Herbert's been the hardest one because he has no offensive line. His weapons are fine. The production's been okay, but they keep winning games. And I just don't know where to put him. So help me out.
- [73:34]
Todd McShay
I guess my question was, as I was reading through this, is this like where we are right now in this moment? Is this a. Encapsulating the entire season, or is this what we think? What we kind of know they like Burrow is when healthy and happy and protected. Burrows up there with Alan.
- [73:54]
Bill Simmons
You're right.
- [73:54]
Todd McShay
In my opinion. But how funny.
- [73:57]
Bill Simmons
But when he's sounds depressed in press conferences and puts up a goose egg and plays.
- [74:05]
Todd McShay
It's one thing to sound depressed, to play depressed, and to do it against the same opponent two weeks ago that you just carved apart.
- [74:11]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [74:12]
Todd McShay
Is that one's. That one you can do an entire show on? It's kind of. You know, it's scary to think where he is mentally, to put that out on tape on Sunday.
- [74:22]
Bill Simmons
Do you think it's justifiable for him to be there mentally, though? Because putting the offensive line and the fact that they just don't spend money and you're in this conference with all these franchise QBs and you.
- [74:33]
Zach Lowe
You've.
- [74:34]
Todd McShay
Of course it is.
- [74:34]
Bill Simmons
You have the water pistol in a gunfight.
- [74:36]
Todd McShay
I mean, it did.
- [74:37]
Bill Simmons
It's starting to dawn on him.
- [74:39]
Todd McShay
It did.
- [74:40]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [74:40]
Todd McShay
I think he had, like, a realization. Yeah. And I mean, it did Carson Palmer. Look at how that finished. Excuse me. I think it was Schefter had a great statistic about what forced Andrew Luck to retire. And it was whatever number of sacks in X amount of games. And it was like 13 fewer games and Burrow had been sacked 20 or 30 more times, whatever the number was, significantly more in 13 fewer games to get to this point. And so you just. You wonder about his. His mental state and where he is. But Purdy at three in the third rung.
- [75:21]
Bill Simmons
So I had him. I had him sixth overall, Purdy. And I. I do think he's having kind of an underrated year, but like.
- [75:30]
Todd McShay
Mac Jones, QBR was, was like 12th, you know, based off of put.
- [75:36]
Bill Simmons
I had Matt. I had Mac Jones on this list. He's. He's a few rungs down.
- [75:41]
Todd McShay
No, I know, but I'm saying I think you have to take into account. Yeah. You know, what's around them to a certain degree.
- [75:47]
Bill Simmons
This is it. So you're in the anti Purdy camp. I like this because Purdy is the most polarizing QB out of all of.
- [75:53]
Todd McShay
Them, and I feel like I like him, but I feel like this is, this is beyond.
- [75:57]
Bill Simmons
Okay. So you. Would you flip. Who would you put. If I move Purdy out, who would you move into that? Do you agree with Love and Prescott for advice?
- [76:05]
Todd McShay
I actually do. I, I do. And I, I, I think Love and Love is exactly right at 4.
- [76:11]
Bill Simmons
And I think just, you know, it's interesting because this is a pyramid. I can do whatever I want. I could just have the third rung. Just be Love and Prescott. I think it should be down to a different level.
- [76:22]
Todd McShay
I honestly don't know. I, I might have Purdy down with. I would pop Herbert up to the fourth rung.
- [76:30]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [76:31]
Todd McShay
Because I just don't like. You can't lose. Both phenomenal offensive tackles have that little protection. I honestly wouldn't mind.
- [76:40]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [76:40]
Todd McShay
I would move her. Purdy up to the third rung. I would move Herbert up to the third rung. Purdy down.
- [76:48]
Bill Simmons
So you'd have Herbert sixth overall. All right. I'm going to trust you because I'm admittedly, like, I don't see Herbert correctly sometimes because I don't think I put. But when I evaluate him, I don't think I put into account all the obstacles that the Chargers have thrown on him and bad luck, injuries. I mean, it's not. The Chargers fought, Slater got hurt and all got hurt. But that offensive.
- [77:11]
Todd McShay
I don't know that there's an organization in the NFL that has. I feel like we're going on a decade now. Every single year we get that at some point, is it bad luck or we. Are we evaluating the wrong players? Are we. I don't know. Is there something wrong with our training staff?
- [77:27]
Bill Simmons
Can I offer you one more option?
- [77:29]
Todd McShay
Yes.
- [77:31]
Bill Simmons
Karma. They moved from San Diego. There's good people in San Diego. There are good people. Including Eduardo, who works on our podcast. Yeah.
- [77:39]
Todd McShay
Who you ripped from my show.
- [77:42]
Bill Simmons
I did.
- [77:43]
Zach Lowe
He's the greatest clip guy in the history.
- [77:45]
Todd McShay
Clip guys.
- [77:45]
Bill Simmons
I encountered him in a trade.
- [77:47]
Zach Lowe
You did.
- [77:47]
Todd McShay
I just waiting for what? I'm getting back the.
- [77:53]
Bill Simmons
San Diego people, though. What did they do? It's like we nothing. Yeah. We have a shitty arena. So you want us to pay for another one? Like, why do we. The teams are all worth 6, 7, 8 billion a year. Why do we have to pay for this? Anyway, the charges are gone and I do think there's some karma with it.
- [78:11]
Todd McShay
But I think if we adjust the Purdy and Herbert a little bit.
- [78:14]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [78:15]
Todd McShay
I'm happy to tweet that burrow. Lamar Goff is in the right rung. Yeah, Stroud. It's nice to see backup in that rung.
- [78:23]
Bill Simmons
So I started him. I'm in the fantasy playoffs and I had Baker and Caleb and I weighed both of them and just went all in on CJ Stroud against Arizona because I thought they were real signs that he, you know, he's got his weapons back, Woody Marks when he's actually out there. But they have a bunch of like decent running backs. But Stroud's got his mojo back.
- [78:41]
Todd McShay
He does, like, for real.
- [78:42]
Bill Simmons
And I. And I think he's a real wild card for the playoffs and somebody I do not want to see in the seven seed. If the Patriots are the two seed.
- [78:49]
Todd McShay
They might be the most dangerous team in the playoffs.
- [78:52]
Bill Simmons
I know they're 13 to 1 to win the Super Bowl. Like, they're not in that even the second level of super bowl odds. And to me they're. I think it's Buffalo, Houston and Denver. I would have as. As the three teams, I'd be the most excited.
- [79:05]
Todd McShay
Why am I still not buying Denver?
- [79:08]
Bill Simmons
Well, they answered all the questions last week, though. Okay. That Green Bay game was really impressive. I thought Knicks was great in that game.
- [79:14]
Todd McShay
He was. But I can, I can still think. I just. In the playoffs, I just. I don't buy it. I don't buy it.
- [79:21]
Bill Simmons
There's some game management shit with them that I think I would be concerned about if I was a Broncos fan. There's some weird fourth down stuff they do. They're like unnecessarily aggressive sometimes.
- [79:31]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, but.
- [79:32]
Bill Simmons
And they've had some luck in the end of these games.
- [79:34]
Todd McShay
I was just going to say. But they keep winning the. The one score games. They keep winning them. I mean, the defense you can't argue against. And it's great to see Bo Nix where he is. And I'll tell you what, it was one of the all time, as I like to say, Onions moves to draft him, where they drafted him 12 overall. To go all in and to be like, that's my guy. I don't care if the rest of the league has in the second round. Like I don't.
- [79:57]
Bill Simmons
So that fifth tier I have now has Purdy, Knicks, Mayfield, Hertz and Darnold. And the biggest question for me, and I'll throw it to you because I might be glass half empty on this guy too. Lawrence is the next guy at the next rung at 16. And he's had. He's played way better the last couple weeks. It's undeniable. They've been playing bad teams. I still don't trust it. Some other people do. And they're like, finally he's comfortable. He's got a good coach. Do you trust this?
- [80:26]
Todd McShay
No. I trust Caleb more with. With his coach than I do Lawrence with his.
- [80:31]
Bill Simmons
Interesting. How come?
- [80:37]
Todd McShay
I think Caleb's buying in. I mean, Lawrence is as well. I think Caleb is more talented. I don't know that I trust. Trust is the wrong word with either of them if we get into a playoff situation. But I just.
- [80:54]
Bill Simmons
I'm never going to trust Lawrence.
- [80:56]
Todd McShay
I don't know that I can either. And I had such a high grade on him. These are two. These are the two guys that based off of my grades coming out of college should be up with. Like Stafford may love, you know, in that range.
- [81:06]
Bill Simmons
And so one thing with Caleb that he has that I don't think Lawrence has in the same way is Caleb just has one. Wow. Play a quarter where you have him on a sack or you. And he just gets out of it. He Houdini.
- [81:20]
Todd McShay
That's what I'm saying. There's a little bit more ability for.
- [81:22]
Bill Simmons
A game as anyone and there's a.
- [81:23]
Todd McShay
Little bit more fu to his game.
- [81:25]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [81:26]
Todd McShay
Do you know what I mean? Like in that moment and it can go awry, you know, but he's dialed that in a lot. And he's capable of making a mistake. I still in a pressure moment, you just don't know. But I just. If you need one, I think. I mean, I definitely want Caleb under center more than Lawrence if I need one.
- [81:46]
Bill Simmons
You know, we don't have to do the second half of the pyramid, but I did want to ask you about a couple QBs.
- [81:51]
Todd McShay
Okay.
- [81:52]
Bill Simmons
I love Shuck on the Saints. I'm actually.
- [81:55]
Todd McShay
He was my guy last year.
- [81:57]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, I know he was. And it seemed a little crazy because of his age, but you went all in on him.
- [82:02]
Todd McShay
All in.
- [82:03]
Bill Simmons
I think he's for real. I like. I think they're done. They don't need a qb. They should ride with him. I think he's legitimately solid.
- [82:10]
Todd McShay
I was going down to Mobile, Alabama for the Senior Bowl, I think, as the McShay Show. The first time we went on the road. Right.
- [82:17]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [82:17]
Todd McShay
And I got the list from Jim Nagy, who was the executive director at the time. And I hadn't watched. I'd seen all the quarterbacks and studied them. I hadn't done much on Chuck, so I did a little bit prior to that. During the week. I really liked him. And then I came back before the combine, and I went in, like, full on, diving in, film room. Then I got to know, talk to some people, some scouts, about his background, what he's been through. And it just clicked for me. I'm like, why not? He's more emotionally mature and has been through more. He was in Trevor Lawrence's recruiting class.
- [82:54]
Zach Lowe
Wow.
- [82:54]
Todd McShay
And part of that, like, Elite 11 and was, like, supposed to be one of the next guys, you know, he was the. He was Herbert's, excuse me, heir apparent at Oregon. And then he bounced. He bounced all around and wound up at Louisville with Brahm, who kind of both the Brahms, who wound up, like, getting it out of him, and the light finally turned on. And so I just. And his makeup and his love for the game, and he's kind of a junkie, and he's always around it, and he's had it ripped away. He told me a story. We were talking at the combine. Like, I literally was being carted off the field. I think it was a Texas Tech. And he's like, I'm. My football career is done. It's gone. I don't know, like, what. Who am I? What am I? You know? So, like, there's something about quarterbacks who come in the league and have been through a lot and. And. And that's what I liked about Shuck and seeing him. You know, he thought he. I was with him at the Manning passing academy, and he was saying, you know, I'm going to be the starter. And we're. And to see that that wasn't the case. And even early struggles his rookie year, to get to be put in this spot and to play the way he has is kind of awesome to see.
- [83:55]
Bill Simmons
He has two qualities I really like. One, in the fourth quarters, he can. He can come back. Like, there's a resilience to them. Like, if they're down 17, 7 or something, or 24, 17, you. You feel like that he's gonna make a run. Right. But he's also really tough. Like, he. He takes big saves on that team. It's not like that's like a great blocking team. And even in the game, the Carolina game, which I watched that entire game, I just thought he got fucking walloped a couple times and he just gets up, you know, and I think there's a, there's something, there's a charisma to him and a toughness to him that I think, I think works. I just think they have a qb.
- [84:34]
Todd McShay
I do too.
- [84:35]
Bill Simmons
So I was excited for them because it's not like a lot of good things are going on with the Saints. I wonder like you mentioned about these guys, these late bloomer guys who have high pedigree. This is something I'm always fascinated with with the NBA. If the Celtics are in this situation now with Jordan Walsh, who's only 21, who's been playing a lot for them as a wing guy and is emerging as this really good defender. But if you go back and you look at his class, he was like number 12 in the ESPN top 100 and then played college for like one year on a team that had a bunch of wings. And they kind of bet on the pedigree, which is something they've done over and over again with some guys. Some guys have the pedigree, but it just takes three, four, five years to figure it out. And then other guys haunt you because you think they're going to figure out. They never do. So it's a little dance.
- [85:21]
Todd McShay
Yeah, it is. And it's interesting with we mentioned Lawrence and Caleb.
- [85:28]
Zach Lowe
Right.
- [85:29]
Todd McShay
And they were. Can't miss, you know, clearly the number one guy. Number one coming out of high school, number one college. And there's like I said with Chuck, there's something to either having it ripped away or enduring some of those struggles in college where you come in hardened a little bit and it hasn't been all handed nothing's hand, but it hasn't come easy.
- [85:57]
Bill Simmons
So who's the guy in college right now that could be that guy who's the high pedigree. I took some lumps. Maybe bet on me when my stock's a little lower guy. It seems like we have a bunch of them in the draft this year.
- [86:12]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I was going to say, you know, like Drew Aller. I just, I can't bet on May. Maybe it's Clubnick, Cade Clubnik from Clemson. Although I, I think he's a career backup but could wind up, you know, pushing through. Yeah but he's been through some stuff at least. Dante Moore has been through like he went to UCLA, he was a five star elite 11. All those things was Supposed to be the next great one had and things went poorly after five games. Got, you know, got benched, took a sabbatical year as they're calling it now at Oregon and just kind of sat back and learned with Will Stein. He comes out this, this year as a starter and everything's great. And then he kind of hit a mid season with receiver injuries and everything. Kind of a lull.
- [87:03]
Bill Simmons
Well, plus you started blowing him up. I don't think he could handle the McShay pressure. I know you put the McShay spotlight on him. He was like blinded. He's like, ah, yeah, believes.
- [87:14]
Todd McShay
I do feel like sometimes, anytime when I go all in too early on someone and I think it's more of a jinx than any pressure I put.
- [87:20]
Bill Simmons
On a place like buying flowers for a girl after a second date. It's like, oh, right, yeah, this is going so fast. Yeah, I don't know.
- [87:28]
Todd McShay
I don't know. But. But to see him finish the season strong and now all of a sudden, Will Stein, his offensive coordinator, I was pushing and I talked to some scouts who talked to Dante Moore's camp, right? His mom, his dad, his agent, the coaches, everyone was saying he's going back to school. But now Will Stein leaves. Dante Moore's playing well. We're hearing, you know, Arch obviously is going back. Lenore Sellers going back. Lot Shoresby from Cincinnati is kind of looking at his draft stock, but probably going to transfer. I think there's a chance that Moore could wind up reversing course now and wind up in this draft and this class. Like for all the touting in the preseason, I'm here to be the, you know, I've admitted it before. Like they, it just didn't pan out. You got Fernando Mendoza and then maybe Dante Moore and even Ty Simpson, who I love and think he's gonna have a great future at Alabama. He's not ready. And so maybe there's just two first round guys and it's a big dip before potentially we have one of the greatest quarterback classes in the history of the NFL Draft in 2027.
- [88:33]
Bill Simmons
This episode is brought to you by Searchlight Pictures. Ever hit rock bottom and find yourself on stage telling jokes? That's the new film directed by Bradley Cooper. It's called Is this Thing On? Starring legends Will Arnett, Laura Dern, Andra Day and Bradley Cooper. It's all about a guy trying to get his life back by throwing himself into the New York comedy scene. So I saw this film, I thought it was really good. I thought Arnett was great. My wife loved this movie. I just wanted to mention that. So I think this checks all the date boxes is this thing on? Showing in select theaters December 19th. Get tickets now. This episode is brought to you by Chime. A great team avoids dumb penalties so get Chime on your side to help avoid dumb fees. With Chime you can bank fee free, unlock your paycheck early and with qualifying direct deposits you can get 1.5% cash back on eligible everyday purchases while building your credit. Start banking smarter today. Sign up for Chime in minutes. Terms and conditions apply. See chime.com for details. Chime is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services and the secured Chime Visa credit card provided by the Bancorp Bank NA or Stride Bank NA members. FDIC optional service and product may have fees or charges details@chime.com feesinfo with a qualifying direct deposit earn 1.5% cash back on eligible secured Chime Visa credit card purchases on time. Payment history may have a positive impact on your credit score. Results may vary. Learn about credit building and more@chime.com youm put out your like preliminary, preliminary big board. You had Mendoza the clear one, Reese the linebacker from Ohio State tube. And then Moore 3. Even though he's 20. And I mean out of everybody you had in your top 10, Moore was the one my eyes gravitated to because it's such a tough one. Right. It's like clearly, clearly hasn't spent enough time in college. Clearly has incredible talent and is one of those situations where if he at 20 years old went to the wrong team with the wrong coach and the wrong infrastructure, I think it's just a disaster. But if he went to a team like the a 10 out of 10 would be the Mahomes Reed situation. Right. In 2017 you go, there's a starter you don't have to play for a year. You sit there. I don't know if that's a situation that exists in the top six of this NFL draft. So I don't know. Like if you were. If almost everyone would you tell them.
- [91:00]
Todd McShay
Almost everyone on the, on the high rungs of this, of this bill's QB pyramid. Right?
- [91:06]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [91:06]
Todd McShay
He's got 36 starts in college or more. Almost everyone.
- [91:10]
Bill Simmons
Is that true?
- [91:12]
Todd McShay
Yeah. And the ones who don't are in like the high 20s.
- [91:15]
Zach Lowe
Right.
- [91:16]
Todd McShay
And below.
- [91:16]
Bill Simmons
So the move is for him to stay for a year, bank some starts, bank some experience and then cast your lot in a tougher draft class.
- [91:24]
Todd McShay
Yeah. And still be. So what if you're the third or fourth or fifth quarterback taken next year, maybe you wind up going to a better place. I mean look at Bo Nixon. You know, he goes to Denver with a great defense and a team that you know is not nearly as shredded and dismal as Washington was at the time or Chicago was at the time. I don't know. I just.
- [91:50]
Bill Simmons
Well, I mean, think about it like NBA. I think it matters a lot more. There's a huge money disparity with like the top four picks as it drops down in the lottery. There's prestige in football. Like all that matters is you're trying to get to your second contract where you can get between 40 and 60 million a year. Right. So.
- [92:08]
Zach Lowe
Right.
- [92:08]
Bill Simmons
If I'm, I would much rather go situation.
- [92:11]
Todd McShay
If he's the number three pick, let's say if I've got him at three, he's the number three pick in the draft, he's going to make about 36 million guaranteed over five years. Right?
- [92:21]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [92:22]
Todd McShay
So you're looking at seven, seven plus million per year.
- [92:27]
Bill Simmons
Probably like 26.
- [92:30]
Todd McShay
Yeah, but he's probably going to make I don't know, 4 or 5 million to go back to Oregon. That's the difference now that the, it's a luxury.
- [92:38]
Bill Simmons
That's good point.
- [92:39]
Todd McShay
That players didn't have quarterbacks did not have before.
- [92:42]
Bill Simmons
And all the difference is that you're, you're starting the clock a year earlier on that big contract though.
- [92:47]
Todd McShay
Yeah, but when you're on, when you're 20, you know, and you're like now, well, I'll be 21 going into 22, I've got, you know, and then I'll be 27, 26, 27 at my, if I wait a year I'll be 26, 27 for my first contract. That's that Those are the discussions that, that are being had. Like I'm, yes, I'm pushing it back a year but it's not like I'm losing that much money in my final year at Oregon. So is it worth it?
- [93:13]
Bill Simmons
Well, this is why agents are awful though, because the right agent is going to tell him and his family like, look, look, he's got to come out now. Every year he doesn't come out, he's costing himself $50 million. And they'll just do, they'll Jedi mind trick it. So it's like you're leaving so much money on the table four years from now if you don't come out.
- [93:32]
Todd McShay
And the business part of it is wild. We're talking about a 20 year old.
- [93:35]
Zach Lowe
Right.
- [93:35]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [93:36]
Todd McShay
Who now has control and is in a. Leverage. He's in a position of leverage when he goes and negotiates with Oregon, with his agents, you know, through his agent, saying, all right, if I do come back, A, what's the. What's the money? B, I need this, this and this guarantee. So that's. I know I have one great freshman quarterback will be. I mean, a receiver who will be a sophomore. But I need a guarantee of two portal receivers and I. And I get to help choose. You know, like, that's something that. It's brand new to this sport. I'm not saying it's healthy, but it's. But It's.
- [94:10]
Bill Simmons
My son's 18. I don't even trust him with a postmates order at this point.
- [94:14]
Todd McShay
Right.
- [94:14]
Bill Simmons
I'm gonna. He's gonna be hiring multiple staff members and recruits. Yeah.
- [94:18]
Todd McShay
And who's my coordinator? And so it's wild what's going on in college, but it's where we are.
- [94:25]
Bill Simmons
Well, let's. Can we talk Mendoza? Because you've really. He's won you over. It's like watching a rom com. We've hit the end of the rom com when the couple just ends up together. Like, you're in on Mendoza. This is.
- [94:36]
Todd McShay
It's a rom com.
- [94:37]
Bill Simmons
That last game won you over for good. It seems like.
- [94:40]
Todd McShay
Like it's a romcom where I, I fell in love with him early in the plot. Right.
- [94:45]
Bill Simmons
Right.
- [94:45]
Todd McShay
But I, But I was wary of. How am I gonna. You know, is this, Is this my forever or. Or do I just really enjoy.
- [94:53]
Bill Simmons
Is there a lot your friends are telling you? Like. No, no. Dante Moore, he's so. He's so great.
- [94:58]
Todd McShay
Lenor is a better athlete. And so. And so I'm early because. Remember back in, back in July, we did. We were breaking down all these quarterbacks. We weren't even going to do a full show on. We had done Arch. We did Club Nick and Aller and Nussmeier and Lenore Sellers and all the. And John Matiere. And we get. We're like, should we do Mendoza? Does anyone really care about a Cal transfer to Indiana yet? Or should we just wait?
- [95:27]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [95:28]
Todd McShay
And luckily Dan Comer from our show was like, no, we need to do it. Let's do it. So I dove into the tape and I watched and I was like, oh, this guy's got stuff. And he's mobile and he's got a big arm and he's got a little bit of like this charisma about him. And he kind of doesn't care in big moments. And he's. But he's turning the ball over a lot and he's. And he should be turning the ball over even more and he's making a lot. So he's got a lot of developing to do. But I love where he's going, that system. But then early in the season it was like RPO stuff. It felt like he was kind of a robot working within the system. But then he had the Iowa game and then he had the Oregon game and none of it was beautiful top to bottom. But there were moments in the clutch. And then the Penn State game again. He's with us out without his top receiver. He's got this third string young receiver, Baker, who winds up having a monster game and he makes that throw at the end of the game. Yeah. And so in Ohio State wasn't beautiful top to bottom, but this is a defense. This was like Rocky 4. Like there's no knocking out this monster, this giant, you know, and he found a way and he hung in there and he made that big throw at the end of the game and it's like, this is just who he is. It may not always be pretty. And so. And I like, he's goofy, man. He's Kirk Cousins meets Kurt Warner. You know, like just the interviews and who. But he knows who he is and he doesn't stray from that. And he. That I, yeah, I. I keep falling more in love with him. And we're. We're getting towards the end of the rom com where I'm like, yeah, I'm all in on this guy. Even though I. I see the flaws, like the eyes drop in the pocket and he gets. He gets kind of worked up at certain times, but that's something that can work out in maturity from a skill set and from that clutch gene standpoint, he's got a lot of the traits that some of the top guys in the league have.
- [97:23]
Bill Simmons
Casual fan Bills has one concern, the interviews. I've just never really seen it work with superstar NFL QBs. When the interviews are that goofy.
- [97:36]
Todd McShay
I knew it. We hadn't talked about it. I knew. I know.
- [97:39]
Bill Simmons
We haven't talked about it. I've been saving.
- [97:41]
Todd McShay
So that's. That stuff does not fly.
- [97:44]
Bill Simmons
I just. It's so weird and unconventional, his style that it almost seems like an SNL sketch and I don't fully understand it. And if he's like this in interviews, is he like this in the huddle? I just need more information or he needs an interview. Coach. But something Is No, I don't think very alien y about it. Like he doesn't seem like a human being and just like this is just weird. What's he doing?
- [98:09]
Todd McShay
I think he's just kind of a nerd, you know, I just think he's kind of like.
- [98:15]
Bill Simmons
I mean, we're for Russell Wilson forever, right? Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins, man.
- [98:19]
Todd McShay
Kirk Cousins. Overly excited. Warner.
- [98:24]
Zach Lowe
It's.
- [98:24]
Bill Simmons
Yeah, it's a little. It's like, is this a shtick or is this who you really are? So Derek coast.
- [98:30]
Todd McShay
I felt like it was a shtick.
- [98:33]
Bill Simmons
Interesting.
- [98:34]
Todd McShay
And so I never bought that one. And that made some uncomfortable moments in Bristol and I just never fully bought that one. And he wound up having a better career than maybe I expected but still comfortable.
- [98:45]
Bill Simmons
In what way? Like in the production meeting?
- [98:48]
Todd McShay
No, just like be there with his agent. I had a whole list of players. My list was pretty close to undefeated. Anytime someone who I said who I was lower on sought me out either personally or through an agent and came after me in Bristol or anywhere else, almost every single one of them were busts or failed to live because they cared. So I kept it on my phone. I kept this. It's called the list on my phone, my notes page. And he was one of them. And he wasn't a bus certainly.
- [99:17]
Bill Simmons
But he never, never really totally made it. Yeah. Listen, the Mendoza thing from an entertainment value standpoint is going to be really fun because every time he gives an interview, you're kind of captivated.
- [99:30]
Todd McShay
Yeah, it's captivated like. Like how many car pile up.
- [99:34]
Zach Lowe
Right?
- [99:34]
Bill Simmons
Like it's just. It's just different.
- [99:37]
Zach Lowe
It is, it is.
- [99:38]
Bill Simmons
He'll figure it out.
- [99:38]
Todd McShay
But I knew that's why you couldn't go all in on him.
- [99:41]
Bill Simmons
Well, his teammates love him. I love that he's come through in especially the Penn State game. But he take. He's taken the stuff I've seen. He's taken some big hits. He just gets up or if it takes him a couple plays to get up, he's back and I don't know and the team wins. So if I'm. There's only going to probably be one team in the top six that desperately needs a QB in the NFL. Maybe he's the guy I didn't look at the list for. Who's the team that needs a QB on Blanken?
- [100:12]
Todd McShay
Well, the Raiders need the Raiders. The Saints, now they're out. The Giants. I haven't looked at the list this week. Tennessee won't.
- [100:22]
Bill Simmons
Cleveland.
- [100:23]
Zach Lowe
Yeah.
- [100:23]
Todd McShay
But here's the thing. Though you've got three teams, Bill, with two picks in the first round that were banking on this quarterback class.
- [100:31]
Bill Simmons
Right, Right.
- [100:31]
Todd McShay
You got Cleveland, the Jets and the Rams. The Rams are now like, ah, it doesn't matter his age. We get at least one more year out of him. So I bet you the Rams try to move, move a piece to get another first rounder in 2027 would be my guess if they can. The jets have multiple in 27 as well. So it's kind of the, the Browns that are sitting there, you're most nervous about them. But I think the jets, if they, I mean there could be a war, I'm saying for that first overall pick to go up and get Mendoza. And I think, you know, whoever winds up with that first round pick is going to wind up or that number one overall pick is going to wind up getting a haul for it.
- [101:08]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. So I mean Arizona I guess could talk themselves into. We desperately need one. But they could also talk themselves another year at Kyler. The only one that's like. It's bleak, you know, really bleak I would say is jets and, and Vegas and the Browns. But even the Browns could like what if Shadora looks better? The next three, like they could talk themselves into some sort of shadow. We're paying Watson anyway. There's a better draft coming.
- [101:37]
Todd McShay
Be ownership talking themselves and, and getting rid of the GM and the head coach and bringing in some. A group that. A head coach that believes in Shador. That's what it would take is from.
- [101:50]
Bill Simmons
My understanding a head coach that believes in a year from now, let's go all in on this next draft that's going to be loaded with people Vegas needs. I mean the Vegas thing's unbelievable. The Carol. Carol's going to get. I think he's going to get pushed out after.
- [102:03]
Todd McShay
Yeah, he's dead man walking right now.
- [102:05]
Bill Simmons
They went all in on Geno Smith who you know he's not going to be the QB next year.
- [102:09]
Todd McShay
How great does Schneider look in Seattle?
- [102:12]
Bill Simmons
Well, you have that. You also have. You're in a division with Denver Chargers and the rebuilding for your Kansas City Chiefs. So Vegas could be. This could be the rest of the decade where they're just in fourth place. So they got to figure it out. Can we talk about quickly the college football playoffs?
- [102:31]
Todd McShay
Yes.
- [102:31]
Bill Simmons
Oklahoma, Alabama is the closest line. That's one and a half Alabama favorite Texas A and Miami and then two higher lines with Ole Miss and Oregon is there. What out of those four, what's the game?
- [102:42]
Todd McShay
You're fired up for blue Bloods Friday night, Alabama, Oklahoma. Oklahoma's offense doesn't. It just is not inspiring. John Mattier before the thumb injury was tracking to be. I'm not saying he's gonna be a first rounder but like a day two prospect. But he just. He brought this grit and playmaking ability and like the. The mid. The material moments and you know, the good and bad. He hasn't been the same. The offensive line can't protect. They don't have any running game. So. But I think they can beat Alabama. Something's up in Alabama. Ty Simpson was sensational. Best quarterback in the country. I thought through like six, seven games. Ryan Williams, the wide receiver is a star. When coming in it was Jeremiah Smith and Ryan Williams is like the two and we're talking about already top 10 picks after last year. And Ryan Williams all of a sudden can't catch the ball consistently is disappear. He had one catch for 22 yards or something like that in the final two regular season games. They had to manufacture a couple throws to him in the. In the SEC championship game. This is a star like this doesn't happen to Jeremiah Smith. You know. Now there's DeBoer and conversations about Michigan. I think they could get clipped and I love Ty Simpson and I actually picked Alabama in the preseason to win the national championship. I'm taking Oklahoma on Friday night.
- [104:05]
Bill Simmons
Interesting.
- [104:05]
Todd McShay
Norman. I also think Miami. I don't trust Marcel Reed. What's that number? What's the spread?
- [104:15]
Bill Simmons
Three and a half. For my. Miami's getting three and a half fanduels all over it.
- [104:19]
Todd McShay
They always are. I think that game's going to be close. I actually think Carson Beck with his experience is I did this thing right this on the. The other day. Last year's quarter. The biggest difference in the playoffs this year and last year quarterbacks last year like the best quarterback in the entire college football playoff was Dylan Gabriel. I got the list right here. That's why I'm looking at it. Quinn Ewers, Nico Iamaliava just as a pup. Still. Cade Clubnik, Drew Aller, Will Howard, Kevin Jennings, Riley Leonard, Carson Beck who. Who wasn't even going to be in the playoff. It was going to be Gunner Stockton who we knew barely anything about. Sam Levitt is a pup. And Maddox Madsen.
- [104:58]
Bill Simmons
Jesus.
- [104:59]
Todd McShay
I know this year it's Mendoza Moore right at the. At the top. Julian saying Ty Simpson, Carson Beck reinvented Mattier who I talked about Marcel Reed, Baron Morton who's done a great job at Texas Tech kind of flies under the radar. I say Julian saying as well.
- [105:23]
Zach Lowe
Ohio State.
- [105:23]
Todd McShay
Yeah. And Trinidad twice. Yeah. So that's the biggest difference this year.
- [105:29]
Bill Simmons
What about my guy? Bob Chesney headed to UCLA, getting 21 and a half against Oregon for James Madison, the 12 seed. There's no sports movie potential here, is there?
- [105:41]
Todd McShay
Not a movie I like. The defense is good. Run game is really good.
- [105:48]
Bill Simmons
Seems like a pretty big step up from the conference. I'm not counting on my guy.
- [105:53]
Todd McShay
I know he's your guy. A lot of rumors and reports about you in that situation.
- [105:58]
Bill Simmons
I might have helped. Ohio state is a two to one favorite. Indiana. This is on FanDuel. Indiana's plus 320. Georgia six to one. Oregon and Texas Tech are plus 850. So if you had to pick a team, who would you pick? Pick to win this whole thing with the.
- [106:17]
Todd McShay
With the odds in. In mind, I would say. I would say Georgia.
- [106:24]
Bill Simmons
Georgia six to one.
- [106:26]
Todd McShay
Yeah. I think you get better money. And I think, honestly, it's a. I don't say coin flip, but I. I could see Georgia winning it just as easily as I could Ohio State. I could see Ohio State stumbling out of the gate. I can. You know what? You want to take a long shot?
- [106:40]
Zach Lowe
What?
- [106:41]
Todd McShay
Check out in your FanDuel app.
- [106:43]
Bill Simmons
I got it.
- [106:44]
Todd McShay
It's to make the. The semifinals. Yeah, the semifinals.
- [106:50]
Bill Simmons
Okay.
- [106:51]
Todd McShay
It was high that. It was like. Plus, I forget was 700 or something.
- [106:54]
Bill Simmons
Like that for Miami just to advance.
- [106:59]
Todd McShay
To make the Final Four. Yeah.
- [107:02]
Bill Simmons
To get to the Final Four, it.
- [107:05]
Todd McShay
Would be beating A and M and A and M and then. And then knocking off Ohio State and then Carson Beck goes to play Georgia.
- [107:11]
Bill Simmons
Miami's talented enough plus 650 to make the College Football Playoff semifinals.
- [107:16]
Todd McShay
It dropped after I gave it the other day.
- [107:19]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. That's what you do.
- [107:20]
Todd McShay
I'm joking.
- [107:22]
Bill Simmons
It was the odds.
- [107:24]
Todd McShay
It was 700. But I'm just.
- [107:25]
Bill Simmons
You dropped the odds and you got in Morse head.
- [107:27]
Todd McShay
If you got a couple, couple, couple bucks lying around, a little scratch, throw it at that.
- [107:32]
Bill Simmons
What's your ideal number for the college playoffs for teams?
- [107:36]
Todd McShay
Are we.
- [107:36]
Bill Simmons
Is it 12? Is it 16? Is it 8? What would be. What would be the happiness?
- [107:40]
Todd McShay
I could live with 12. But the bull, like the Bulls, are predictably becoming a farce now.
- [107:47]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [107:48]
Todd McShay
So I'm all for expanding. Let's just. Let's go all. I am. I think 16 would be. Here's my biggest complaint. Like, first of all, we have all these brilliant people and all this money and all the investments in college football right all the TV back, everything. But how do we. Why does it take an epic failure every year for change to be effective? Last year we got these four seeds of conference champions and like, what are we doing this year? We get that fixed. And so it's the top four ranked teams, as it always should have been.
- [108:19]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [108:19]
Todd McShay
How did we not read the fine print? Like, literally. Did we just get too caught up in all, like, how do we not think to ourselves, you know what, the ACC or the Big 12, it won't ever be the Big Ten or the SEC. The ACC or the Big 12 could have a down year and there's no team that represents one of those schools. And now we've got another conference champion and it could be another group of five.
- [108:41]
Bill Simmons
Yeah.
- [108:42]
Todd McShay
How did we not get ahead of that?
- [108:44]
Bill Simmons
I mean, it sounds like 16 is the right number.
- [108:46]
Todd McShay
16 is the right number.
- [108:48]
Bill Simmons
It's 8 or 16, 12 seems like we can't decide either way.
- [108:52]
Todd McShay
And if it's at 12, that the group of five should not just automatically get in. They should be ranked in the. They have to be ranked in the top. They have to have a special Boise State, Cinderella upsetting Oklahoma type of year to get a team in. Because right now we're looking at like Texas, with the way Arch was playing. They knocked off the number three team in the country at the end of the year. How's Texas out? And I love Chesney, but JM use it. How is. How is Tulane in? And Vanderbilt or byu, one of these other programs isn't in when they lost. Now we got a rematch of Ole Miss 45, two lane, 10 from earlier in the season. Like, no one wants to see that game.
- [109:36]
Bill Simmons
So maybe it's. You do your 12 and then you have four. Wait, how are these guys not in spots? Yeah, and then, then you just get. And you just decide at the end of the day, all right, these four, we can't. If we're going to do this correctly, Texas has to be in. So there's one. And you just go through.
- [109:52]
Todd McShay
Yeah. In the current system, it's essentially five automatic bids and then seven at large. So you would expand that seven at large, but you would also. I still think the group of five teams should be in the top 16, whatever that number is, they should be ranked in the top, that spot in order to earn being in.
- [110:09]
Bill Simmons
Well, you know what they'll end up doing? They'll go to 14 and emulate the NFL. That'll be the next move. And it's just the two ones, the one and the two seeds will be the ones that don't have to play in the first round. Everybody else has to play. And then eventually we end up at 16. And then eventually we'll end up at 24.
- [110:28]
Todd McShay
I've only heard 16, though. I can see it getting to 24.
- [110:35]
Bill Simmons
I mean, at that point, what are we doing?
- [110:37]
Todd McShay
Yeah, I think for, I think 16 will be there to stay for a while.
- [110:42]
Bill Simmons
All right.
- [110:43]
Todd McShay
Yeah, we'll see.
- [110:44]
Bill Simmons
Good to see you, McShay. I enjoy your newsletter. I enjoy your podcast. I enjoy the fact that you trudged to Gillette Stadium to watch the Patriots rubber match is coming. I'm not worried. Campbell's back. The Williams will be back both in January. You'll see. We're going to see the Bills again. I think we're okay.
- [111:02]
Todd McShay
I think the Williams thing is just, just as important, honestly, that run defensive times, I've just. I'm stunned. So.
- [111:08]
Zach Lowe
So I love.
- [111:09]
Bill Simmons
I think they're 31st in Rush EPA since he went out. I think that was the stat I saw.
- [111:14]
Todd McShay
And you could just see it on the field. It was. Yeah, yeah. But that's, that's, that's what we all want, like, just the league in general wants to see that. The, the May Allen rivalry, you know.
- [111:25]
Bill Simmons
Yeah. All right. Good to see you. Happy holidays.
- [111:27]
Todd McShay
All right, brother. I'll talk to you. You too.
- [111:30]
Bill Simmons
All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Zach and McShay. Thanks to Gahal and Eduardo as well. Don't forget rewatchables. High Fidelity already up. Sure Thing coming tomorrow night. The sure Thing by Rob Reiner and then Music Box Thursday, Counting Crows, have you seen me lately? And then I'll have one more podcast on this feed. Enjoy the rest of the day. Must be 21 plus on President, select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 Plus. I'm President in D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 100 Gambler, visit rg-help.com, call 888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.orgchatinconnecticut or mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York. Monster Energy. Everybody knows White Monster Zero Ultra. That's the OG it kicked off this whole zero sugar energy drink thing, but Ultra is a whole lineup now. You've got Strawberry Dreams, Blue Hawaiian Sunrise, and Vice guava and they all all bring the monster energy punch.
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So if you've been living in the.
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Bill Simmons
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