The Bill Simmons Podcast

Episode: A Quick NBA Power Poll, Minny’s QB Mess, Josh vs. Pat, and Week 9 Picks

Date: October 31, 2025
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Joe House, Peter Schrager

Episode Overview

This action-packed episode blends Bill Simmons’ signature NBA “nine-day power poll” with lively NFL debates and betting insight, joined by regular collaborators Joe House and special guest Peter Schrager. The crew breaks down which NBA teams have impressed or disappointed, explores messy NFL quarterback situations (notably Minnesota), addresses a brewing Bills vs. Chiefs AFC clash, and lets listeners in on their process for picking NFL games against the spread for “Ringer 107.” Throughout, the hosts serve up rapid-fire opinions, food detours—including deep thoughts about fast-food steak nuggets and calzones—and plenty of playful banter.

Key Segments & Insights

1. NBA Nine-Day Power Poll (“Who Should You Actually Believe In?”)

[05:35–39:29, 54:00 NBA segments conclude]

Eastern Conference Overreactions & Disappointments

• Orlando Magic “OH NO” Watch:

  • Bill: “The nerds started turning on Paolo this week… our own Kurt Goldsberry was… concerned with some of the advanced stats.” [07:36]
  • House points to defensive holes and overhyped expectations, noting they gave up 136 to Philly and “there’s already stuff with the coach.” [06:55]
  • Both agree: They’re not dead, but they’re in the “I smell smoke” group, potentially premature media hype.

• Brooklyn Nets: Historically Bad?

  • Bill: “Brooklyn under 19.5 is…one of the worst teams we’ve had in the league in some time. Cash that lock already.” [11:13]
  • House: “I think Brooklyn suits [Michael Porter]. He’s gonna be able to pursue his interests the best.” [11:51] (joking about Porter stat-chasing).

True Contenders & Tier Debates

• Favorites: OKC stays at the top.
• Contenders Tier: Denver, Knicks, Cleveland.
  • “Cleveland doesn’t have their team yet—I’m not concerned at all except for my 56.5 over.” [12:29]
• Possible Contenders: Houston, Golden State, San Antonio (moved up after early returns on Wemby).
  • On San Antonio: “They have an MVP candidate; they’re second in defensive rating right now, which isn’t nothing.” [13:46]

Scheduling & Age Disadvantage

• Golden State “Conspiracy”?
  • Bill: “I think there’s a real chance Adam Silver hates Golden State… when I look at the schedule, this is a fuck you from the NBA schedulers, one of the oldest teams in the league.” [15:03]
  • House: “Let’s see where they are in 11/16… Who’s already hurt? Who’s been sitting?” [15:22]
  • Bill on the “Sean Marion” comp for Kuminga: “Guarding the best guys… run the floor, that’s the Sean Marion blueprint” [16:13]

Sleepers & The Teams That Could Crash the Party

• Milwaukee: Bill: “Giannis has just been best player on the court every game… they have these sneaky dudes, man. I’ve liked Ryan Rollins.” [17:33]
• Other teams on the “let’s see in March” list: Minnesota (defensive slide), Dallas (health issues), Clippers (off-court noise), Lakers (Reaves stepping up, LeBron still lurking).

The Indistinguishable Tier & Upside Watches

• “Sorry, I Can’t Tell You Guys Apart”: Detroit, Philly, Atlanta, Miami, Chicago.

  • “Any of these teams could beat the others in the play-in. Miami and Chicago played themselves up thanks to Buzz Ellis and style continuity.” [31:42]
  • The group can’t decide whether Detroit or Philly is the best—wholehearted praise for Maxey’s emergence: “We may just have to accept Maxey’s a 28 points-a-game scorer now.” [32:27]

• Philly & Maxey Watch:
  Bill (to Chris Ryan): “If this is just who he is now… we’re in Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell area territory, which changes their ceiling.” [32:03]

League Pass Darlings & The Tank Watch

• Charlotte: “League pass all star! Just... don’t get blown out, let me enjoy you guys for more than an hour.” [39:06]
• Indiana, Utah, Phoenix, Sacramento, Washington: "Shopping for tanks," with New Orleans as the prime example of a team that would like to tank but can’t.

2. NFL Weekly Breakdown

[43:33 onward]

Atlanta’s Offensive Communication Meltdown

• Schrager dives into covering the Falcons’ rollercoaster: huge buildup, now two straight games with only 10 points.
  • “Raheem Morris says Bijan is the heart and soul of our offense. They’ve scored 10 points since that 250-yard game... It’s been confusing.” [45:37]
  • Both hosts: “They landed themselves on the DNB [Do Not Bet] list.” [47:51]

Minnesota’s QB Mess & Sliding Doors

• JJ McCarthy, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold...
  • Schrager outlines the Vikings’ dilemma: “It’s like, what do you tell Ben Ginkel, what do you tell Cashman, what do you tell Justin Jefferson? You had a 14-2 team with QB talent walk out the door.” [65:45]
  • House: “How do you keep that room set? I think they’re gonna get waxed this week.” [66:19]
  • Schrager slams the mess, not denying he has insider doubts on McCarthy.

Bills vs. Chiefs - The Playoff Preview?

• Bill: “We’re putting this game in Ringer 107. This is a playoff game. Put the fucking chest hair in your chest. Have a drink. We’re trying to win.” [74:52]
• Schrager: “Ed Oliver being out is huge… The Bills can’t make any moves, they have like a million dollars of wiggle room.” [75:23]
• Bill: “I think Buffalo can overpower the Chiefs… my fear, if I’m KC, is we’re just getting pushed backwards, we don’t have the ball.” [76:59]
• Panel agrees this is a must-win for Buffalo—both for seeding and mental state given their tough remaining schedule.

Betting Sizzle / “Ringer 107” Picks

(Bills +7.5 in a parlay, Texans -1.5, Colts -3, Seahawks -3, Bears -2.5)

• House: “Finally, finally we got some Arby’s steak tips on top!” [101:02]
• Texans as hosts: “That Houston defense, I think, really might be the best in the league. Their top five basically everywhere.” [81:29]
• On Colts: “They’re a nightmare… they can throw deep, they can throw short, they got Warren’s rookie who’s the best tight end in football.” [92:19]
• Bears: Bill highlights Cincinnati as “bad in every category,” so riding with Caleb Williams (with a Bagent side-plot prediction).

3. Memorable Quotes & Fun Moments

• On Orlando & NBA Hype:
  • Bill: “Every NBA season, there’s a younger team getting pushed up to the next level without having done anything yet. I think that happened here.” [09:24]
• Scheduling Conspiracies:
  • Bill: “I think Adam Silver hates Golden State… It’s a fuck you from the NBA schedulers.” [15:03]
• About Maxey’s breakout:
  • Bill: “He might just be a 28-points-a-game scorer now.” [32:30]
• On NFL Frustrations:
  • House: “When you have shit like that, never good. No upside to having a really weird ongoing story outside basketball.” [21:53]
• Food Tangents:
  • Arby’s Steak Nuggets: House passionately questions their branding: “The cup isn’t appetizing and it doesn’t convey a barbecue vibe… If you called them tips… instead of nuggets…” [28:15]
  • Calzones at Lucali: Schrager and House rhapsodize about the perfect calzone and the glory of extra tomato sauce. [108:08]

Notable Timestamps

• NBA OH NO Reactions (Orlando, Brooklyn): 05:35–11:56
• Contenders & Tiers, Golden State Schedule “Conspiracy”: 11:56–16:33
• Milwaukee, Defensive Woes, Maxey Watch: 17:33–33:06
• NFL with Peter Schrager (Atlanta, Minnesota, Bills-Chiefs): 43:33–77:17
• Food Detours—Arby’s & Lucali Calzone: 27:13–30:29; 107:12–109:43
• Ringer107 Bets/Recap: 100:59–105:59 (final picks at 104:22)

Tone & Chemistry

This episode is classic late-October Simmons: punchy, skeptical, half-sarcastic, with House eager to ride the betting highs, and Schrager providing behind-the-scenes NFL color. The hosts blend deep stat talk (“defensive DVOA,” NBA scheduling impacts) with irreverent friendship humor (“protein in a cup,” “savory Spain linebacker”), making it engaging for both stats heads and casual listeners.

Summary for New Listeners

If you missed this one, you’ll walk away understanding:

• Why the Magic, Pelicans, and Nets are giving serious “uh-oh” vibes,
• Which NBA teams are trending up (San Antonio’s surge) or riding precarity (Golden State’s crazy schedule, Minnesota’s defense slipping),
• The full spectrum of NFL angst—from Atlanta’s communication struggles to Minnesota’s QB panic,
• Why Bills vs. Chiefs is the real “playoff” of November,
• Several sharp betting and fantasy football nuggets,
• And a surprising amount about the branding missteps of Arby’s steak tips, plus elite calzone guidance.

Simmons, House, and Schrager’s chemistry delivers sharp insight, plenty of jokes, and actionable insight for sports fans—and what to eat while you stress-watch!