A Rockets Gut Punch, Expectations for the Celtics and Pacers, and a Vegas Tourism Slump With Zach Lowe, Sean Fennessey, and Chris Ryan

Summary

The Bill Simmons Podcast

"A Rockets Gut Punch, Expectations for the Celtics and Pacers, and a Vegas Tourism Slump"

Date: September 23, 2025
Guests: Zach Lowe, Sean Fennessey, Chris Ryan

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Overview

On this episode, Bill Simmons is joined by ESPN’s Zach Lowe to dissect the stunning injury to Houston’s Fred VanVleet, what it means for the Rockets’ title odds, and explore trade options in detail. They then pivot to NBA odds and team tiers, debate overlooked value bets, and preview uncertain teams heading into the season. In the second half, Sean Fennessey and Chris Ryan join to investigate the tourism slump in Las Vegas, tracing its economic, cultural, and historical roots, and reflecting on how the city’s identity—and their own connections to it—have shifted.

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Key Segments and Insights

1. The Fred VanVleet Injury: Rockets in Crisis

[08:29–18:23]
Speakers: Bill Simmons (A), Zach Lowe (B)

• Fred VanVleet’s torn ACL dramatically drops Houston from "plausible contender" to "might not be able to win" status, says Zach Lowe.

  “I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say this injury by itself takes the Rockets from a team that could plausibly win the championship to a team that might not be able to win… He’s that important.” — Lowe [08:29]

• There is no reliable backup: Amin Thompson “will get more reps… but he’s a completely different sort of player,” while rookie Reed Shepherd is untested at the NBA level.

• The injury places unexpected pressure on Kevin Durant at 37, as well as on Houston’s bigs and young guards.

• Simmons points to the regular season as a possible silver lining for development, but both agree the impact will be felt most harshly in the playoffs, particularly with ball-handling depth.

• Zach expects Houston could get aggressive on the trade market:

  “It wouldn’t surprise me if they just were like, no, we’re not punting. Let’s go get somebody.” — Lowe [12:11]

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2. Rockets Trade Options and the “Picasso Trade Machine”

[21:15–46:46]
In-depth breakdown of Rockets’ assets and brainstorming for potential trade targets

• Houston has a stash of attractive picks, including multiple Phoenix and Dallas picks, due to past trades with Brooklyn and Phoenix. These could be in play for reinforcement at guard.

  “If we did a draft… on five first-rounders you would want in 2027, Phoenix would be one of the five teams.” — Simmons [25:07]

• Picasso segment (Bill’s nickname for his trade ideas) runs through names from stopgaps (Ayo Dosunmu, Jose Alvarado, Scottie Pippen Jr., Peyton Pritchard, T.J. McConnell) to higher-wattage targets (Derrick White, Tyler Herro, Emmanuel Quickley, Austin Reaves, Colin Sexton).

• A deep dive into whether Houston could/should swing big for someone like Derrick White:

  “You have upgraded your team [going from VanVleet to Derrick White]—you made your team better.” — Lowe [36:52]

• Discussion of Houston’s ability and appetite to package young talent (Shepherd, Jabari Smith) and valuable picks, weighing short-term title windows vs. long-term development.

• Trey Young is considered as a possible high-variance move, but both doubt the fit:

  “I’m just not going to be good enough defensively, I don’t think so.” — Simmons [41:26]

• Minor aside on the largest of the hypothetical trade chips:

  “Did VanVleet going down make it more or less likely for them as a home for a Giannis trade?” — Simmons [45:59]

  Lowe is skeptical that a Giannis trade happens this year but says the Rockets would have a premier pitch if/when the time comes.

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3. Western Conference Hierarchy & Intriguing NBA Odds

[18:23–53:20]

• Rockets’ title odds drop to 16–1. The Western Conference is now seen as a three-team race: OKC, Denver, Minnesota, with Houston (post-injury) sliding.

• Both dismiss the Lakers’ elevated odds as a function of fan betting, and highlight Minnesota as an undervalued contender:

  “Minnesota has the ninth-best odds and I think this Houston situation has really opened the door for them because they have a chance to be a two seed, right? You are preaching, Denver.” — Simmons [19:31]

• Simmons is shocked at the low market confidence in Minnesota and repeats his support for Denver as the potential real #2 in the league, based on the team talent distribution and continuity.

  “I just think whoever wins… that OKC-Denver series to me is probably going to win the title.” — Simmons [19:00]

• Discussion of the Nuggets’ slim supporting cast and reliance on Jokic opened up by a deep-dive into Bill’s new “top-100 NBA players” list.

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4. Roster Construction & Value Rankings (Bill’s Top 100 Exercise)

[59:19–67:38]

• Simmons shares lessons from his annual top-100 ranking, noting teams with the most players in the top 90-100 tend to be true contenders (OKC, Minnesota, Denver, Knicks, Houston).

• Lowe pushes on whether Minnesota’s bench can fill its remaining “half a playmaker or shooter short,” but acknowledges their defensive ceiling and stability.

• Discussion pivots to whether Victor Wembanyama is already a top-6 player.

• Rapid-fire assessments of Orlando’s depth, Denver’s refinement, Dallas as a lurking wild card (pending Kyrie Irving’s health and Cooper Flagg’s impact).

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5. Uncertain Teams: Dallas, Boston, Indiana

[67:38–83:37]

• Dallas is labeled “hard to project” due to Kyrie’s injuries and questions about their new big lineups with AD and Cooper Flagg.

• Celtics and Pacers are presented as “highest variance” teams:

  • Boston: If Tatum can return from his Achilles tear midseason is left open. Lowe is lower on Boston due to lack of depth, possible financial-motivated subtractions, and skepticism of Anthony Simons’ fit.

    “When you write it down… this is what happens.” — Lowe, on the thin Celtics depth chart [77:17]

  • Indiana: Could become a “let’s just suck this year” team post-Haliburton injury; their over/under is 37.5 wins.

• Both agree Indiana’s depth and Rick Carlisle’s coaching make them slightly less likely to tank outright than Boston.

• Notable stat: Jalen Brown at 50:1 to lead NBA in scoring. Simmons thinks he could feasibly get to 30 PPG.

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6. Las Vegas: Why Is Tourism Slumping?

[89:37–117:57]
Speakers: Bill Simmons (A), Chris Ryan (C), Sean Fennessey (D)

Main Theories for Vegas' Downturn

• The Cost of Vegas vs. Its Value Proposition

  • Vegas used to be a “cheap vacation” for west coasters, filled with affordable rooms, cheap eats, and comped gambling amenities.
  • Now, rising prices (rooms, food, parking, fees) and cashless payments make it easy to overspend and harder to keep trip costs in check.

    “I had money in an envelope and I was like, if I tear this envelope open, that’s it… now we have kind of reached this sort of, just forget about it until tomorrow.” — Chris Ryan [96:34]

• Gambling Is Less Special and Less Accessible

  • Sports gambling is now legal and accessible in many states; Vegas no longer has a monopoly on that thrill.
  • Table games are stingier, with rules/odds slanted further in the house’s favor.
  • The feeling of a “win” is diminished—“I just feel like... I’m this cog in the machine that’s just going to get crushed.” — Simmons [95:31]

• Shift in Entertainment and Identity

  • Vegas is no longer just for gambling—there are top-tier restaurants, shopping, sports events (NFL, NBA Summer League, F1, concerts/residencies), and high-end shows.
  • Discussion on how turning into “just another American city” with sports teams shifts the energy from the old vibe of escape and risk.

    “When a city has sports teams, it’s a town, it’s a residential place… when you visited, you were like, everybody here is in a hotel and we’re all gambling.” — Fennessey [92:26]

• Rise of Competition

  • Other cities (New Orleans, Austin, Nashville, Miami) now draw party crowds and destination dollars that once were Vegas’ bread and butter.

• Generational Shifts and Social Experience

  • Younger generations may prefer different kinds of trips and have more options; the experience of going to Vegas for the thrill isn’t unique or aspirational any more.

Memorable Quotes

• “Is it for degenerates or for everyone? Is this my secret shame or what I look forward to all year?” — Chris Ryan [104:32]

• “They want to be for everybody… At the same time, they’re having a massive sale right now to get people to come. So something got broken.” — Simmons [106:43]

• On the nostalgia of old Vegas trips:

  “You have this anvil hanging over your head the whole time. You can only go to the ATM one time a day.” — Simmons [100:00]

Reflections, Storytelling, and Tone

• The trio reminisce about the “old Vegas”—sharing beds in cheap rooms, obsessing over maximizing gambling time, and the importance of the communal experience.
• Now, everything is more expensive, stakes are higher, and the atmosphere less forgiving for losing.
• They debate whether it’s about price, culture, or simply Vegas “growing up,” likening its transition to a band deciding whether to age with its audience or keep attracting the young.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the impact of Fred VanVleet's injury:
  "They were a team that could not afford an injury like this if they want to compete against the heavyweights in the West in the playoffs." — Lowe [15:00]

• On the nature of Vegas:
  "It feels like I’m this cog in the machine that’s just going to get crushed." — Simmons [95:31]

• On shifting priorities:
  "I think Vegas already decided… they want the best restaurants, the best entertainers, the Sphere… but something got broken." — Simmons [106:43]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 08:29 – Rockets’ VanVleet injury breakdown
• 12:11 – Will Houston make a trade or stand pat?
• 21:15 – Rockets’ draft asset pool and trade maneuvering
• 29:03 – “Picasso Trade Machine” – brainstorming trade targets
• 36:34 – Derrick White as a top trade swing
• 41:26 – Dismissal of a Trey Young-to-Houston move
• 59:19 – The case for Minnesota/Denver as best value bets
• 77:17 – Celtics’ bleak depth, Jalen Brown’s opportunity
• 89:37 – Deep dive: Las Vegas’ tourism and culture shift
• 95:31 – On today's casino experience: more expensive, less fun
• 100:05 – Early trips, community, and the lost “old Vegas” vibe
• 106:43 – On Vegas’ identity crisis

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Episode Tone & Style

• The pod flows with classic Bill Simmons energy—mixing incisive sports talk, wonky roster analysis, and lived-in storytelling.
• Zach Lowe delivers sharp, methodical basketball reasoning, pushing back when needed and playing off Bill’s hypotheticals.
• In the Vegas segment, Chris Ryan and Sean Fennessey riff with Bill, blending light nostalgia, cultural criticism, and economic realism; the banter is both melancholic and comedic.

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Summary

This episode is a must-listen for NBA fans seeking a deep dive into how one injury can reshape a contender’s season, the mechanics of NBA trades, and a broader meditation on what fan experience—and adult fun—looks like in the U.S. circa 2025. The pod closes with an engaging, thoughtful cultural dialogue on what’s become of Las Vegas, mirroring larger changes in travel, entertainment, and community.

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Notable Sections for NBA Fans:

• [08:29–46:46] – All about the Houston Rockets’ crisis, trade options, the draft assets war chest, and wild trade scenarios.
• [59:19–83:37] – Team-by-team odds and the new “NBA power rankings logic.”
• [89:37–117:57] – Cultural, nostalgic, and economic analysis of Las Vegas.

Quotes Quick-Reference:

• “You made your team better. [Derrick White] is a better player.” — Lowe [36:52]
• "Minnesota has the ninth-best odds, and I think this Houston situation has really opened the door for them." — Simmons [19:31]
• "It feels like I’m this cog in the machine that’s just going to get crushed." — Simmons [95:31]

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Summary by [Your Podcast Summarizer].

Transcript

[A]

This episode is brought to you by Viori. Look, I'm not a big let's hype up workout clothes guy, but Vuori, I gotta say, total game changer. Been wearing a lot. If you see me power walking around Los Angeles, probably gonna see me wearing some Vuori Sunday performance joggers that they have. It's made with four way performance stretch fabric, one of the most comfortable things you own. You will wear them everywhere, I promise. All you have to do is go to viori.com Simmons and you get 20% off your first purchase with Vuori. V-U-O-R-I.com Simmons. Enjoy. Free shipping on all US orders over $75 plus free returns. Exclusions apply. Visit the website for full terms and conditions. The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network where I put up a new rewatchables. On Monday night we did Airplane. One of the funniest movies ever made. One of the most influential comedies ever made. Yeah, we talked about that and a whole bunch of other things with special guest Bill Hader, who absolutely loves this movie. And we dove into not just all the great things about this movie, but what it meant to multiple comedy generations and even little kids like me who saw it in the theater. So Airplane, you could check that out. You can also check out the Prestige TV podcast where we're breaking down task every episode. We did the third one on Sunday night just for the record, we watch the episodes along with you. We only watch one, we do a podcast, then we watch the next one because I hate knowing trying to do those pods and pretending to make predictions when you have already gone three episodes ahead. So we have a special email address that you can email us mailbag questions for and a whole bunch of stuff. Task is great. Couple other house cleaning things before we get to the podcast. So Ravens Lions. Last night was just an awesome game and it's funny. I got killed gambling on Sunday and I really like the Lions on the road. I liked the underdog parlay, just them to win the game with the over. I was probably going to do that on Monday night and I got shellacked on Sunday I stayed away and of course the the Lions win and the game goes over. I thought they looked. I just loved how they played. I loved how physical they were. I loved how over and over again they went for it. And I think what I I didn't do a great job with the preseason this year was some of some of the takes, I had some good ones, some bad ones. I think what I really underestimated with the Lions was I think they heard a lot of the stuff about, well, their coordinators left, they've lost some guys in the offensive line. This won't be as good of a team. They have a real fire in their belly. I really thought that was a fuck you performance by them in Baltimore. And even, you know, going for that fourth and two and they hit Amanra, say, Brown on that long pass and then Montgomery for the exclamation point touchdown at the end. I thought Goff was fantastic and I thought they really, really bullied Baltimore in a way that was more shocking. For wherever you feel about Baltimore big picture now, it's a game where if Henry doesn't fumble, maybe this just goes back and forth and whoever has the ball last wins. But Sal and I talked on Sunday about who was like the eighth team. We always want to have the eight teams we think can. Can win the super bowl. And we were debating is like Detroit even in there. Well, we learned on. We learned on Monday night that Detroit's definitely in there. And if anything, Baltimore probably has a shakier case to crack that top eight with the way they got ran on some of the sloppiness they've had. Now, Baltimore does this every year. They always start out a little shaky, and then all of a sudden they win 10 straight. Not too worried. But seeing Lamar get sacked 7 times and really frazzled a few times was, Was surprising. I didn't know anyone could sack Lamar that many times. I think another big takeaway is Josh Allen has just clearly cemented that he's the most important guy in the league right now. Now we have 14 weeks left for somebody to take it. But to me, he's. He's. I feel like he's just levitating slightly above Lamar Mahomes and Herbert, because I think Herbert is in that conversation too now, which we'll talk more about on Thursday. We're going to do a lot of football on Thursday's podcast. We are going to do on this podcast Zach Lowe. He's coming on because Houston had a just unexpected, terrible Fred Van Bleed injury that has completely changed how you have to look at them as a contender. We talked about a bunch of options with them. We talked about some of the other teams that we're not sure about as we head into the preseason here, Boston and Dallas. Very fun podcast. Picasso, the trade machine came out at one point, too. So we have that. And then Sean Fenisty and Chris Ryan and I, we did a rewatchables yesterday. And. And then afterwards, we decided to do a segment about this story about Vegas and how Vegas is offering this big sale this week and tourism is. Is way down for them. And it's a little bit of a panic time in Vegas. And the question is why? What's going on with Las Vegas in 2025? So this might not be the only time I do this segment because it's just something I'm personally fascinated in. I've been going there for 30 years. I think this will be the 1.0 version of what's going on with Vegas. I want to do this again with Dave Chang. I want to do this again with cousin Sal and Jimmy Kimmel at some point. But just like checking in every once in a while this year with Vegas and just what's going on with this city? What do they want to be? What's going wrong? What's going right? So anyway, we just talked about all those variables. So speaking of Jimmy Kimmel, good luck tonight. He's going to be back on the air. Can't wait to watch it. And I think since I did my thing on Thursday about the whole situation, I think I talked about leverage and power. And the biggest thing that changed over the next couple days was that Disney just took an absolute slacking from everybody. And I think it hit the point where it made them look so bad to handle it the way they were handling it that they had to bring the show back. So we'll see how it goes. I haven't been this interested in a show that he's done, I don't think, ever. So we'll see what he has planned tonight and how he handles everything. And I am just glad that the show is still going to continue to exist. So good luck to him. We're gonna take a break. We're gonna do Pearl Jam and then come back with Zach Lowe. And then after that, Sean Fennessy and Chris Ryan. It's the Bill Simmons podcast presented by FanDuel. And the NFL is back. And thank God FanDuel has everything. They got an awesome app. They have SGPs. They have great futures. They have good prop bets, live betting your way bets, clean app. It's great to use. Been using it for a few years. Every time I go back to Boston or any place that has Fando and I get to use it, I'm always excited. I'm on an airplane Runway. You done the airplane Runway? Yeah, buddy. Airplane Runway. There should be a button. The Runway button. I'm on the airplane Runway. I got to get this in. Get your bets in. Build something bold. Make every game feel bigger. Download the FanDuel app or head to FanDuel.com BS to get started. The Ringer committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of this episode for additional details. You must be 21 plus in President select states or 18 plus in President DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. GAM problem. Call 1-800- Gamble or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-89777 or visit ccpg.org chatinconnecticut paid endorsement all right, we're recording this Tuesday morning. Got up early for this one. Zach Lowe is here. I've been on his podcast, but he hasn't been on mine since the Finals. And it feels like a million things have changed since the Finals. The biggest thing recently is Fred Van Bleek goes down torn acl. Houston was a team I had been looking at as, huh, how, how good could these guys be? And now they don't have a point guard. And this is, this is a weird one for me because I both felt like he was the biggest obstacle, them actually winning a title, but just not having him completely is. Is even a bigger obstacle. What was your reaction when you heard it?

[B]

My reaction was, I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this injury by itself takes the Rockets from a team that could plausibly win the championship to a team that might not be able to win, slash, maybe can't win the championship. Like, he's that important and they don't have, I mean, Amin Thompson's gonna get more reps. That's awesome. He's a completely different sort of player. Reed shepherd, like, is he ready? He barely played last year. I just think they have just, just nobody like Fred Van Vliet and no sort of traditional point guard who can calm you down. They have Durant now, and I think one of the ripple effects of this is, like, the risk of overtaxing Durant in the first 40 games of the season. Like, run a bunch of pick and rolls, all that stuff. So I think it's like, I think it's a disaster for the Rockets. I think it's a break for, like, the Lakers, the Wolves, the next tier of teams in the west, because I had them. I had, you know, okc, Denver, Houston, as like, a clear top three in the West.

[A]

I agree with that, yeah, I put. I would have put. I had Houston as a 3A and Minnesota as a 3B. Cause I still feel like, I don't know why we're just discarding Minnesota and making them 20 to 1 to win the title. All that stuff. When they have a top seven guy and a pretty decent one.

[B]

I can't wait to get into that.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. So. All right, so you, you run through the seven stages of grief with this injury. And at some point. And Hollinger wrote about a little bit for the Athletic today like that. Not to call it a silver lining, but it's like, okay, well, now they get to find out, what do they have with Reed Shepherd? Could Ahmed Thompson actually, you know, run the offense through him more? Could you run the offense through Sengun? All that stuff Sounds great. There's a regular season version of this where it's like, yeah, okay, we'll find out some stuff. I'm just fast forwarding to the playoffs. I'm fast forwarding to that game that we went to, game four in Indiana when Dort and Caruso were just like, you're not dribbling the ball over half court. They're not going to have anybody who can play in an actual playoff series, not just against okc, but against Minnesota, that I completely trust as a ball handler. And it's like, cool, we have Kevin Durant.

[B]

Cool.

[A]

We have Sengun. We can run half court shit through them. I'm just Talking about the 94ft, the pressure. And one of the biggest revelations from last year was how important multiple guards were. Ball handling, playmaking, having people be able to share the distribution of stuff. And this now puts all of the pressure on Reed shepherd, who didn't play last year.

[B]

It's too much pressure on Reed Shepherd. It's too much to expect from him to take a huge leap to being like, all of a sudden, what is he going to be a 30 minute a game point guard on this team? I haven't read Hollander's column yet. I missed it this morning. All that stuff, I think was going to be discovered in the regular season anyway. One of the things that's great about Fred Van Vliet is he doesn't have to be like a high volume. You got to run every play through him. He can be off the ball. This is why they got him. This is why they got him instead of James Harden. Eme Odoka kind of said that on the record to me last year. We didn't want a guy who would siphon ball handling duty from like our main guys. And I think he would have found all that stuff out. He's a low mistake player and they just, they don't have anybody like him. And actually it, it made me think like, they're built to win right now. Like, this is, this is a disaster. You don't get Kevin durant at age 37 and like, maybe be on the verge of extending him if you're not built to win this season immediately. So regular season self discovery is not even that big of a silver lining to me because I think it would have happened anyway and it's not what the season is about. And it's made me think, like, will they actually start getting aggressive in trades for a guard? I think that's in play too. I haven't gone through the list of names who that would be yet, but I don't know who's going to be available. They, you know, they have some salaries they could trade, but it wouldn't surprise me if they just were like, we're not. No, we're not punting. We're not just doing this silver lining stuff. Go get somebody.

[A]

So I've been up since like 5 o' clock in the morning. Don't ask. Sometimes you just get older. You just wake up sometimes. And that's probably why I probably have some eye bags under my thing. But, yeah, I was going through all this stuff and that was. I landed there. Can we go there in 10 minutes?

[B]

Yeah, it's your podcast. We can go anywhere you want.

[A]

No, but I landed there mentally by about 7:15am Pacific Time, where I was.

[B]

See, I went, I went immediately into the worst stage of grief. I didn't. There was no stages for me.

[A]

I test drove the Reed Shepherd 30 minutes ago. What if he's ready? He was the third pick in the draft, but by 7:15, I was like, you just traded all this stuff for Kevin Durant. You're in window mode. Every year that you have him, he's. God only knows what he's going to look like two years from now. This is the moment right now. You can't go into the playoffs with the roster you have. So what's the move now? Reed shepherd, they picked third in the draft. Our draft guys really liked him. A lot of people liked him. Um, he, you know, there was some Mark Price possibilities with him. I thought he was going to play more last year. He just kind of didn't fit in with their, their timeline and having another undersized guard. I think they were trying all these different lineups. I do think he's talented. There's some shooting stuff that he brings to the table. Like I was looking at, their three point shooting was probably like their Achilles heel last year where you have Sengun and Thompson who just can't shoot from three at all. So 40% of your guys not threats at all. Van Vliet was like around 35, 36%. Jalen Green was in the 33, 35 range. Brooks was their best three point shooter, which speaks for itself. So that was one of the things that I think they had to really think about their 21st three point percentage. It felt worse when you watch them and they were just a weird team in general. Like they were first in rebounds, they're 28th in assists, they couldn't shoot threes. It was just this hodgepodge team that somehow kind of made sense when you watched it, but didn't really make sense and ended up losing to a pretty limited warriors team in seven. Right. I don't think that was a great series for the Rockets, which was one of the reasons they make the trade. So if you're going to reinvent them a little bit, you would reinvent them with three point shooting, which opens the door for Reed shepherd who they spent the third pick on. And if he's good, they kind of have to find out this season. Even though he's like 21.

[B]

I, I think they will. I mean you don't invest the like I, I remember he was getting thrown into trades is just like when they were in the Durant sweepstakes, like oh, just like Reed shepherd and this like is the fifth thing in a trade. I'm like, you don't put the third pick in the draft with after a year. The comps that he had as a shooter and a guard playmaker. Coming out of college after one year where he barely played, he's not a throw in guy. I, but I know I do think like a lot of we're going to.

[A]

Do this now, aren't we?

[B]

Well, no, no, I just like, I just don't know what else to say. Like it's, it's just they were a team that could not afford an injury like this if they want to compete against the heavyweights in the west in the playoffs, beat like two of those teams in the playoffs. Fred Van Vliet was a perfect player for them. Low mistake, good shooter, good playmaker, calm under pressure, natural pick and roll partner for Durant and Shangon can play off of Shangun. They just have no one like Amen Thompson's awesome he made. I mean, we both put him on the freaking dream team in 2028. Like, he's on our Olympic roster. No brainer, locked in. We love Amend Thompson.

[A]

Yes, we did.

[B]

He did make progress, kind of running some of the offense last year, but he was still mostly like a cutter, screener, secondary option. There's a gigantic leap from there to like, okay, here's 35 pick and rolls a game. Go ahead. Like, it's a huge change.

[A]

So if you're going to glass half full with the Rockets, do you have any Euro basket people in your life? I know you didn't care, and I know I didn't really. I didn't really care at all. But did you have anybody who was like, I'm really into this. I'm watching these.

[B]

Do NBA scouts who were in attendance count? Because that's all. That's all I had. Only. Only those people who are like, hey, are you here? Are you coming? I can't believe you're not going for the Final Four. I'm like, sorry, I'm not. I'm not. It's not going to happen.

[A]

So there was like a Sengun summer kind of breakout thing happening, and it was a thing. It's the deep recesses of this is, you go on vacation. I'm in football. I'm sorry, I'm not going to watch Eurobasket. But people are really excited about Sengun. He's only 23. He was 19, 10 and 5 last year. And the word that was getting thrown around, including by somebody I trust.

[B]

Oh, no.

[A]

Was like, he looked kind of Yokichi.

[B]

Is it going to start with a J? Is he going to start with a J? I don't want. I just don't put. Don't put that on him. Don't put that on Alfred.

[A]

This is a tournament where Dennis Schroeder not only was the mvp, but probably solidified his FIBA hall of Fame candidacy. Is one of the greatest international basketball players we've ever had. So, you know, take it with a grain of salt. But could he make a leap up? What's he going to look like with Durant? Are there big giant lineups they can play where they're just like, fuck it, we're going to play Thompson at point forward. We're going to have Durant out there with Eason, with Jabari Smith, with kd, with Shangun. Like, look at us. We're just gigantic. Good luck.

[B]

Yeah, they're going to do that. They did that last year. Nothing about, I mean, their identity last year was defense and beating the shit out of you on the glass, including with the double center lineup that became such a delightful, like, plot twist in the season with Adams and Sengun. I do think, and nothing about how they change their team other than maybe playing Shepherd a little bit more chips away at any of that identity. Durant certainly doesn't. I do think Sengun will make a leap. I love Sengun. I'm all in on Sengun. He's awesome. He. I mean, it's, it's less about him and what's left over and more about the void that Van Vliet leaves and how that void would manifest itself on the biggest stages in this conference against these teams. Like there's a competition in the west at the top is just so good. You have the best player in the world. You have the defending champs who won 68 games. You have all these teams below them that have interesting kind of upsides, including Minnesota. It's. Your margin for this kind of injury is like nothing in the West.

[A]

So their odds drop to 16 to 1 on FanDuel. OkC is plus 210. And I don't know if that's too high or too low. Like, to me, it's like if you could take OKC or the field.

[B]

This is to win the west or to win the championship.

[A]

This is to win the title. OKC is plus 210.

[B]

Oh my God.

[A]

Cleveland's plus 6. 50. And then Denver is plus 7. 50. And I've been saying this for two months. I don't understand how Denver doesn't have the second best odds because I think, I, I personally think.

[B]

Yes, you do. They're in the West. That's all. That's all. Like, it's, it's like by default the east team will have the second best odds.

[A]

I know, but I, I just think whoever wins, if I had to say now granted, this September 23rd, whoever wins that OKC Denver series, to me, is probably going to win the title.

[B]

Well, I'm looking at it.

[A]

Weird injury.

[B]

Why is Cleveland plus 6:50 and the Knicks are plus 1,000?

[A]

That's another weird one. Why is.

[B]

I'm sidetracking.

[A]

I'm sorry, but why is Minnesota 20 to 1? How does Minnesota have worse odds than Houston?

[B]

I have to click show more to get down to Minnesota, who has worse odds to win the NBA title than the Orlando Magic and the Lakers.

[A]

The Lakers are 14:1. Now, granted, they. They jack the Laker odds up because the dumbass Laker fans bet them every year. This is they do this to the Red Sox. Well, they do this to the Red Sox fans too. There's certain fan bases where you're like, we're just going to price this differently. And these dumb asses will bet it. The Clippers are 18 1, but. So Minnesota has the ninth best odds. And I think this Houston situation has really opened the door for them because they have a chance to be a two seed. Right? You are preaching, Denver.

[B]

You are preaching to the preacher. I have said on multiple podcasts, mostly when we talked about the Lakers, though I did a Minnesota one last week that, like, I feel like the Lakers being where they are in the odds is. I've used the phrase disrespectful to the Timberwolves, who have made the Western Conference finals two years in a row. Yeah, they lost one key guy in Alexander Walker, but they've got some young guy. I mean, like, that's just part of being a team. You could, you should be able to afford losing.

[A]

Yeah, the most replaceable guy you can lose is a bench guy who's like a swing man, perimeter guy. You can find those guys. You can find them at the trade deadline, whatever they have.

[B]

Ant, who's just nothing but ascending superstar. They have a good defense. There's a good team. They're a really good team. They're tough to beat. They, you know, as long as they don't beat themselves with turnovers, they're really, really tough to beat. And like, they don't have a lot of weaknesses.

[A]

Well, I mean, in the Lakers defense, they did handily beat Minnesota in the playoffs last year. Oh, no, that was the complete opposite. Minnesota killed them.

[B]

Yeah, but LeBron was banged up. He won't get banged. He's only 40, 41. He won't be banged up again in the playoffs.

[A]

LeBron was banged up. He was banged up in the fifth game. All of a sudden the banging up seemed more prominent. Back to Houston. Yeah, I gotta do it, Picasso. Picasso dusted it off, started to go through the rosters, look for some people.

[B]

This is why you were texting me. Now I know why you were texting me about the Rockets Nets trade, pick, trade, swap. Last year in connection with the McHale bridges trade. Now I know why. Because you're building Houston with all the assets they still have.

[A]

Well, the interesting thing about the Rockets for this particular situation, if they decided there was some real urgency, and maybe they won't, there's Shangun's 23 and Thompson's 22. And those are the guys they care about. The Most and maybe they're like ah, let's not overreact with that said, they don't have their first round pick this year. It doesn't matter. Cause I don't think that would be a big draw anyway. Even though it's a good draft next year they can swap their first with Brooklyn. But they also have Phoenix's unprotected first. They had their own first for four straight years. Five straight years.

[B]

I think you should stop right there that you could you if you're the Rockets. What you just said about 2027 is like hey guys, we could have two lottery picks in 2027 like the next possible likes. Yeah, that's a big, big deal. Yeah.

[A]

So they have that and they also have, they have 2 and 29 of Dallas, Phoenix, Houston. They get the best two out of that, that Brooklyn trade. So what we should talk, we should sidebar and talk about this Brooklyn trade really fast. So Brooklyn and you were saying it was part of like they're not doing the Bridges trade unless they can also get their 25 first back. They get their 25 first back from Houston because Houston had the swaps rights on it and they get a 26 first back from Houston. So Brooklyn gets control of their own picks in 25 and 26. In exchange they gave Houston Phoenix's first in 2025. Phoenix is 27 first unprotected and the best two of Dallas, Phoenix, Houston and 29. The reason this is important because last year Brooklyn ends up being better than they thought they were going to be. They get the eighth pick. The pick they gave up in the Trade was the 10th pick. So they moved up two spots. So this comes down now really to the 2026 first for three first round picks, including Phoenix's 27 first, which I would love to have if I'm basically anybody that trades a disaster. Can you defend it or that like this is yet another terrible Sean Marks moment. I don't know what else he has.

[B]

To do be looked at. It turned out to be an absolutely great bet by the Rockets. Betting specifically against the Suns. Betting that getting the Suns picks would help them get either Durant or Booker or both. And I believe they used one of those picks to get Durant the number.

[A]

10 pick in the number 10 pick they got back from Brooklyn was in the Durant trade.

[B]

I, I thought the Rockets had slightly underrated the risk that that pick last year could turn into Cooper flag, but they actually properly weighted it. You know the new lottery rods change all this and they just Said we're going to bet on a bounty of sun stuff over this one Golden Chip Nets asset. And it turned out to be a fantastic bet. The Nets kind of like self sabotaged by being too good to get into the Cooper Flag Derby and now they're just going to try to do it again and again and again going forward. But they can only do it again this one time because after that the Rockets could swap their pick in 27. Like I thought that was a hugely underrated part of that whole series of transactions that the Rockets kept those swap rights with Brooklyn in 2027. Because the message to them was you get two years to do this, two summers to do it. If you can't do it and you're still bad, like you're still fucked. We're still going to take your pick.

[A]

Yeah, I didn't love it for the Rockets because I thought Brooklyn had a chance to be the worst team in the league. And I find it hard to believe they wouldn't have done that Bridges trade if this trade if they couldn't have gotten their pick back. I still think you have to do the Bridges trade because it was so many picks. How do they, how do they be like, ah, now we can't do it, we're just going to go 38 and 44. But I think it worked out unbelievably.

[B]

Well for Houston because it could not.

[A]

Have worked out better because part of that calculation was we think Phoenix in a couple years could be really bad. I thought Phoenix was going to be good. Last year I thought they were. I had them as like a top four seed. It cratered immediately. And now that pick looks awesome. I mean if we were drafting, if we did a draft back and forth on five first rounders you would want in 2027, Phoenix would be one of the five teams. Correct. Who else, who else would you pick?

[B]

Well, I mean you gotta pick all the also rans like Washington, Sacramento. You could always, it's always good to have a Kings pick, you know. And by the way like doesn't Utah I believe owns they have some Golden. I'm looking at the wrong thing. They have the Sun's 2031 pick because remember the Suns did that thing where like give us three picks, now we'll give you one pick out the door. Like they've traded a lot of potentially massively valuable like individual picks.

[A]

Utah got really hosed on their Lakers first round pick swap. They had to have been secretly the most upset about the, the Luca trade cause they, they were just sitting there in pole position with with a Lakers team that God only knows what would happen them. Let's take a break and Picasso's going to throw some names at you. The Bill Simmons Podcast is brought to you by fanduel. It's one of the biggest weeks in sports. It really is lots of stuff to gamble on. FanDuel turning into a full on celebration. Introducing FanDuel Boost Fest where every day from September 25th to the 28th brings you a 50% profit boost on the biggest matchups in football, baseball, golf and more. I mean we got Ryder cup, we got NFL, we have college football, we have the last week of the baseball season. There's just like wherever you want to go but Ryder cup especially really fun wrinkle however you play it 50% profit boost that is ready to go every single day during Boost Festival. Download the FandU app or head to FanDuel.com BS to jump into Boost Fest where the games are big and the boosts are bigger. You must be 21 + President select states or 18 + in President, D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in required bonus issued as non withdrawable profit Boost tokens Restrictions apply including any token expiration, max wager amount. See [e-mail] Gamprom Call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 888-789-7777 or visit CCPG this episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket. My friend NFL Sundays are back. You won't want to miss the action. NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV. Another friend of mine lets you catch every game every Sunday all in one place. And now get NFL Sunday Ticket month to month and cancel anytime. Head to YouTube.com BS and sign up now. Local National Games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games and commercial use. If you cancel YouTube TV you will lose access to NFL Sunday Ticket terms of Bargos Device and content restrictions apply. Commercial use excluded. Renews every month during the 2025 regular season. Cancel anytime. All right, so I laid out the Houston draft picks that they could potentially get frisky with from a contract standpoint. They have, you know they they the reed shepherds around 10. They could be cutthroat and put the Van V contract in a trade as a salary. Who's 25 million this year, 25 million next year. So if you put him and Shepard together that gets him in the 30s which opens the door for the Trey Young type of guys. You could put Jab I'm not saying they should do that. I'm just saying Jabari and Shepherd together puts them in the 20 range. Shepherd by himself is around 10. And I think it's. They're probably looking at stopgap guys, because you just are. You're thinking about okc. We're a point guard short. We need somebody really good for action, win the title. So I'm going to give you five names in no particular order.

[B]

By the way, I just jotted down as we were doing this, I went through the standings, just literally jotted down names. So I'm excited to see if just my instantaneous jot down matched any of yours.

[A]

I have five names. Number one. Well, do. I'll go from. I'll go in descending order from least likely to get an eye bulge kind of you don't breathe for a second to huge eye bulge.

[B]

Can't wait.

[A]

IO dasunmu.

[B]

Not on my list. Good name. Talked about his extension case yesterday on the Zach Lowe show. He's a good player.

[A]

7 million a year stop gap. They could probably patch some stuff together, maybe even throw some of their lesser picks and just grab them. Right. And if you're the Bulls, what do you care? You just want to go 40 and 42 again this year and not pay the luxury tax. That's your only goal.

[B]

Year after year, limited resume as a ball handler. Okay. Shooter, very good defender. Fits in that way. I don't. I don't hate it. I don't think it really moves the. Like moves you back into the upper, upper stratosphere.

[A]

But it was just a name that jumped out. I. I would rather not do anything and hope Aaron Holiday is half decent. Second name. Jose Alvarado.

[B]

Okay. Yeah. You're starting lower than me. I didn't have him on my list. I love. Look, I love Jose Alvarado.

[A]

Makes four and a half million. Could probably steal him. I don't think that swings an OKC series, but I think that would help them. Right. Don't have to give up a lot. Maybe you throw first at them protected. I'd rather.

[B]

I'd rather get the Sumnu for the size, but Alvarado is a better playmaker, maybe a little bit better shooter. And trading with the Pelicans, you never know. You could get like an unprotected first or something for the Pelicans. You just never know what's on the table from them.

[A]

Some sort of swap. All right, now we're getting serious. Scottie Pippen Jr.

[B]

I like that.

[A]

That's a good Name, cheap contract could get him easily. I don't know what Memphis's plan is for this season, but I assume they're not trying to win the title would be part of my guess considering they traded Desmond Bain for a bunch of stuff and they waved Cole Anthony and Jaren Jackson was hurt and I don't know when he's going to start this season. And could you. Could you actually turn Pippen into a real draft pick asset?

[B]

Pippen is good. And one of the things I like about these names at the lower price point salary wise is they can be one for one or two for two deals. Like, Houston is reaching the point without Van Vliet that like a two Rockets out, two Rockets rotation guys out for one back is like you're thinning your team out quite a bit.

[A]

Oh, yeah, I should have mentioned this earlier. So the starting lineup they have right now is Shenguan Durant. I'm going to say Finney Smith, Thompson and Shepherd. Let's say that's the five. Adams, Jabari Eason. Clint Capella is just randomly at this team. A Koji Holiday. So to your point, they have. They have 8 and a half plus Capella plus a Koji plus holiday as stopgap.

[B]

Guys, I'm just going to say that I like Jayshawn Tate. I have a soft spot.

[A]

All right, let's throw Tate in there too. All right, here are my last two. Unless you want to throw one at me. Actually throw one at me.

[B]

I have bigger names.

[A]

Okay, well, I'm moving into my bigger category right now.

[B]

All right, so some of this is, like, depending on how the first 20 games of the season goes. Like, is there a team that is way below expectations and suddenly pivots? Like, including perhaps your team, which we'll get to in a second on a lower salary scale. Jaden Ivey.

[A]

I don't think I'm beating OKC with Jaden Ivey as my ball handler.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

I don't mind it, though.

[B]

Do you throw a boatload of assets at the Celtics for Derek White?

[A]

Can we, can we put a pin on that for a second? Okay, I'll give you two lower level guys and then we'll talk Derek White.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Peyton Pritchard.

[B]

You can throw any of the Celtics guards. I have Simons on my list. I don't think defensively he fits into their culture. But like, any of the Celtics guards, like, why not throw them in? Peyton Pritchard would be fine.

[A]

Peyton Pritchard's making, I don't know, 9 million a year. 10 million a year. Somewhere in that range. It weirdly lines up with Reed Shepherd's salary. So part of the question for me is what is like if I'm doing a trade value list, where is Reed Shepherd? He's certainly not in the top 50. Is his trade value higher than Peyton Pritchard? Is it lower? Is it the same? I have no idea. Do you have any take at all on that?

[B]

I think I'm trying to look at. I'm looking at Boston's. And if you're Boston, I think they're.

[A]

I think they're.

[B]

I think they're probably about equal. And Pritchard maybe edges him out by a nose because his contract is longer than I thought. He has three years left on his contract at a cheaper salary than Reed Shepherd. Shepherd's got the intrigue. Pritchard just won six man of the year. I would say Pritchard probably has a little bit more like next two years trade value.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

That's an interesting one though. Again, it depends. Like if Boston season goes off the rails fast, who knows?

[A]

Well, if they've made that and we're going to talk about them in the next segment, but if they made the decision to Tatum. No, I don't. We don't care how good you look, you're not coming back. And they own their own draft pick. Part of maybe making yourself a little worse for this year would be turning Pritchard, a really good, you know, bench guy, borderline decent starter, into a project like Reed Shepherd. But you'd have to really like Reed Shepherd. I think that's the first one out of the names as I kind of escalate up the ladder, where you go, yeah, that's a guy that could actually play in a series against OKC in Minnesota. Right. That's. I don't know if you play crunch time, but you could get 20 to 25 really good minutes from him. And then the other one, ironically, another wet guy, T.J. mcConnell. And I would say his trade value is probably lower than Pritchard. But Indiana in the same boat as Boston. I don't know what their strategy is going to be for this year, but if you could turn TJ McConnell and a reed shepherd, you gotta at least think about it. Cause you're going nowhere this year anyway. Right?

[B]

I think for Houston you need more than you need some. You need another asset.

[A]

You almost ended up two for one.

[B]

Yeah. T.J. mcConnell's 33.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

We both love T.J. mcConnell. Suddenly the greatest isolation scorer in the NBA out of nowhere and single Handedly.

[A]

With Knippo bringing back the up fakes around the basketball.

[B]

Yeah, I think I need a little more. But these are, these are good names. I was just doing, I was doing like as you would say, blink test, just looking at the standings. Who pops into my mind and I want bigger names than this. But these are, these are good, a good range of names.

[A]

These are the. Let's do something but let's not do anything dramatic. Derrick White is the dramatic name. I mean that's one where you. I need give me some shit back for Derek White. I need yo that Phoenix pick you have in 27 that's coming back like you're, you're giving me real stuff for that. And if you're Houston, I don't know what the price is. I think Shepard probably has to be in it too. But if you're Houston and you basically turn this Van Vliet disaster into Derrick White with some of your picks and you make a real run at this year, could you actually win the title with Derrick White? I think is a real question.

[B]

You get four years of Runway now that takes him through age 35. He's got four years left on his contract with a player option in the fourth year. He's, I mean Ime knows him already.

[A]

He's a top 50 player. This is a different caliber of dude. You, you've actually going from Fred Bamble to Derek White. You have upgraded your team.

[B]

You made your team better. Yeah, he's a better player. Yeah, I had a couple other.

[A]

What's the price for him though for you in your opinion?

[B]

Oh, for Boston it's like three firsts. A young player, I mean they would demand a shitload for justifiably like for.

[A]

Him it's a tough phone call. To Tatum, it is a tough phone call. Heard the rehabs going great. And to Jalen too. Heard the rehab's going great. We've traded Derek White for a bunch of assets that won't help you guys until about three years from now.

[B]

It's a tough phone call. To Tatum. On the other hand, Tatum has won an NBA title, several first team all NBA appearances and is slated to make $71.5 million in 2029, 2030. So I would hope that he would see the bigger picture.

[A]

Just these numbers starting with a 7 for NBA players is really, really something. Who else did you have for the big names?

[B]

These are just names I randomly wrote down in a 45 second scan while you were talking on a podcast. So take them with a grain of salt. The recently injured Tyler Herro.

[A]

So I. It would be hard to get there from a salary standpoint. What are his. What's his salary? He's, like, at 30.

[B]

31. 31. So you. Van Vliet's 27. You know, you got.

[A]

So Van Bleed has to be in that. Yeah, man. That's pretty cutthroat, man. Trading. I don't know if I'm doing that if. Unless I can. I would put Van Boeed in a. In a Derek White trade, but not okay. Am I winning the title with Tyler Herro in the Van Boet spot? Probably not.

[B]

The next ones are just wild. And again, I cannot emphasize enough how little thought I put into any of this.

[A]

Yeah, no, this is. This is. This is why we love podcasting.

[B]

If you're willing to eat a lot of years. I don't actually don't think this is possible. Emmanuel quickly just popped in my mind. I just think it's too much money, too many years. He's too unproven. I don't see it.

[A]

Yeah, he doesn't solve my. I want to make sure I have ball handling and leadership in the most tense possible moments in May and June. I'm not feeling that with a manual quickly.

[B]

The Last one requires 17 different things that go wrong for one team and just a lot of bad vibes. A lot of puzzle pieces have to shift.

[A]

Ooh, I'm excited for this. What if.

[B]

What if things just go very badly this season for Austin Reaves with the Lakers? What if it's like you asked me to come off the bench extension talks. You know, there were. They couldn't really get started because you couldn't offer me enough. But I'm not sure, like, you know, do you really value me enough in a Luca world? LeBron is still here. Is he retiring? If he's retiring, is that good for my future in la? I'm just saying, like, there's a world in which it goes. I don't think this is going to happen, but it's a name that popped into my head.

[A]

So you're running some offense through him, not as a point guard, but as, like a ball. Almost like how you'd use hero.

[B]

Yeah, he can do that.

[A]

Feels like you have some. Some thoughts on maybe Austin Reaves might be more available this season than.

[B]

No, no, no, I'm not. No, no, I'm not saying that. The Lakers love Austin Reeves. The aggregators are like, no, the Lakers love Austin Reaves. Austin Reaves loves being a Laker. Austin Reeves's people are Very close to the Rambi and Jeanie Buss. They love it there. But I'm just saying we've seen more hunky dory situations go awry before in big markets where a lot of stuff happens. And who knows? I don't think that'll happen. I don't think any of these names are like, I like your little names better. I just don't know that the little names do enough for me. I'm surprised you. Oh, Derek White. I mean, look. But to your point, I think right now, I think right now the Celtics are with you. I think right now the Celtics are like, look, even if this becomes a gap year, we're bringing everybody back next year. We're going to try and like go, go full bore again. Like, got these the Jays in their prime, making a gazillion dollars.

[A]

I don't.

[B]

And Derek White is just an A plus plus winning player. So I agree with you.

[A]

You don't want to hop in the Trey Young trade car and just drive around the block.

[B]

Drive it, hop in. I'll ride shotgun. I'm on record as saying that I said yesterday that if I'm the hawks, I'm going four years, 180 million for Trae Young right now. And I'm offering a bit to him today. And if he doesn't take it, then I got to think, do I want to raise it up a little bit? But take the car out. You're the Rocket. You want to trade for Trae Young.

[A]

Well, I really like my roster from the Hawks. I don't want to be paralyzed by the Tray Young extension where I basically limited myself to. It's going to be this year only. And then I'm going over the second apron from that point on with my roster. Once we have to pay some of these other guys. Trey Young on Houston with Durant and with Sengun. I'm just not going to be good enough defensively. I don't think so.

[B]

That is a, it's a big ingredient to throw into your team two weeks.

[A]

Before the season starts to have on the court together.

[B]

I'm.

[A]

I'm not winning the title.

[B]

Well, it's all. This is also a guy who is accustomed to running like literally 60 pick and rolls a game like he is the entire offense and plopping him into one of the greatest scorers of all time. And this young, ascendant center who does a lot of stuff with the ball, like, it's. It's tricky. That's tricky. And it's a lot of money. Going out, too. He's making $46 million.

[A]

I really like Peyton Pritchard, but I also like that move for the Rockets. I actually think that's the answer in this because it's a little. Little lower risk. It makes sense for Boston because you would only do it if you got a better asset than him as a player. And you have. Then you keep Simons for the year, and you have this asset that maybe you could flip back. The Derek White thing, though, if I'm Houston, I'm calling about Derek White. Like, yo had to make this call. What's going on? Would Boston trade with Houston is another.

[B]

Interesting one because of.

[A]

Yeah. You know, their coach used to coach the Celtics.

[B]

Can I give you one more name? As I'm going through a random team that I just have to remind myself sometimes that they exist and we should talk about them. Yeah.

[A]

Colin Sexton.

[B]

Yes. Yes. How did you know that's the name?

[A]

I looked at him, too. Expiring contract, 19 million. Charlotte doesn't care. Could Charlotte get Reed shepherd for Colin Sexton?

[B]

That would be crazy.

[A]

No, no, no, no.

[B]

I think. I think Colin Sexton is pretty good. I think that's actually a good name. I'd have to work out what the trade would be, but I think that's a good name.

[A]

I jettisoned him because he's at, like, 19 million.

[B]

Great use of the word jettison. Yeah, I don't know that if I've said that out loud in, like, five years. That word. That's a great word.

[A]

I like to dust them off. They would have to put. That would have to be their Van Vliet, and I don't think they're gonna trade Van Vliet for Colin Sexton just for a variety of reasons. But Jabari would have to be in it. I don't know. I couldn't figure out how to make that one work.

[B]

Can I ask you one more Rockets question?

[A]

Yeah. Well, I have another Rockets question for you, too. What's yours?

[B]

Are you surprised at all? That Tar eason extension has not happened, and there hasn't been a whiff of noise about it at all.

[A]

What does that extension look like for you?

[B]

Well, jabari got what, 5, 4 or 5 and 5? 120, I think it was something like that. I think if I'm esin, I've had some leg injuries that have kept me out for a while that have been recurring. You know, hopefully those are behind them, but, you know, he's probably asking for 30, 25 a year. Four years, 100, something like that.

[A]

Played 25 minutes a game last year. Okay, 12 points a game, six rebounds, 30 million.

[B]

No, they're not. I wouldn't give him that. I'm saying, is 25 too much? I mean, Giddy just got 25. Giddy is a more proven player, but.

[A]

Also with a lot of question marks about stats. I mean, you and I both really like Tari Eason, but, man, he's going to make more than 20 million a year.

[B]

If there's an extension. I'll bet you it's over 20 million a year.

[A]

Really? Wow. I just didn't think they were giving those. I mean, you did the pot about it yesterday with this, with the aprons. It just feels like. Feels like that money is in there in the same way. Do you think he has more contract value than Kaminga, who Nobody even wanted? Offer 20. I personally liked Tari Eason more, but I don't know. I would say they're around the same vicinity.

[B]

Yeah, they're around the same vicinity. The injuries would scare me. I mean, he did play 82 games as a rookie. 22. The second year is disturbing. 57 last year, maybe. Yeah. I still think these guys just get 20 million. I don't. Well, what was your Rockets question?

[A]

Did Van Bleek going down make it more or less likely for them as a home for a Giannis trade?

[B]

Oh, my God. Okay, now.

[A]

Because if we were doing the Giannis trade possibility rankings, they were always in the top three and had a case for number one. Right.

[B]

Wouldn't. Wouldn't you have to say more? You just have to like. But I don't think Giannis is getting traded this year, do you?

[A]

I listen, it's the NBA.

[B]

It's harder to do it during the year. It's harder to do it during year. That's the only problem.

[A]

I'm just conditioned to weirdness and guys being available that we never thought would be available, but it would have to be.

[B]

What would happen to Thanasis?

[A]

I think he's in the trade.

[B]

Yeah, I just checking.

[A]

It would be Sengun and Jabari and all the picks, right?

[B]

To what end at that point?

[A]

Well, that's. But this is the question of, like, we have our winner now at Durant and now we have Giannis and we can run the team through Giannis because Giannis can basically be point center and you could talk yourself into it.

[B]

It's easy to talk yourself into. I was talking to someone in the league yesterday about the Hawks and Giannis because I just have my radar up. On the Hawks, they have those Milwaukee picks, pieces of the next two Milwaukee picks. They have Jalen Johnson, they have Reese Sachet. They have, like, all the ingredient. They almost hired. They interviewed Giannis's agent to be their gm. Like, there's just a lot of. There's a lot of, like, just dots sitting out there. And, you know, we were pitching. This. This guy and I were pitching trades. He's like, so what's the trade? I was like, well, it's like, Jalen Johnson, Reese Sachet probably has to be in it. A bunch of picks and, you know, whatever else. And probably Dyson isn't in it. And he was like, oh, you do that for Giannis a hundred times out of 100. And I said, well, you know, someone made the point to another person, made the point to me. Like, we just saw Dame and Giannis not work well enough. Like, it worked, but not well enough. Should. Should the Hawks think that Trey and Giannis is going to work better than that? No. And he was like, no, you just. You just do the honest deal. It's Yanis. You do it. I'm like, I feel like we always say that about. Now He's. He's only 31. He's not old. He's not a shooter, which is a little worrisome for his aging curve. But we always say that about these, like, superstar trades. Okay, it's this person. You got to do it. I'm like, do you. Like, do you?

[A]

I don't know.

[B]

Do you?

[A]

I would zag and say, if you did it, Trey Young should be in the trade.

[B]

Yeah, that could be that. You could go that way.

[A]

I've already seen this game with Giannis Adame. I. You know, I think that's why the Rockets fit is weirdly interesting to me, because I think Giannis really likes to have the ball all the time.

[B]

But who's with me? It's me. So it's in your trade. It's me. Is me. Giannis, Durant, Shangun's out. I'm in. Thompson, I'm.

[A]

I just have. I.

[B]

It's everybody else, but Amen. Thompson and Durant is.

[A]

Can I. Can I just end up with Giannis, Durant, Thompson, maybe Eason.

[B]

Oh, that's interesting.

[A]

And maybe I get re. I keep Reed shepherd, and then you can have everything else in all my picks, because I think those picks. That Phoenix 27 pick is a true trade trip. It's interesting because our guy, Bobby, you better fucking win.

[B]

You better fucking win in the next two years.

[A]

Well, our guy Bobby Marks did a piece on ESPN like five, six days ago ranking the best draft assets everybody had. I think he had Houston fifth. And I just can.

[B]

They have good. They have great draft.

[A]

I completely disagree. I would rather have Houston's picks than anyone else's picks because you could make. The OKC has a ton of picks. I don't really individually love any of the picks. Like their best pick is probably that top four protected Philly pick. Philly's not going to be bad this year. You know, that Edgecomb thing I think was a little bit of a game changer for their ceiling. I don't think they're.

[B]

I heard you with. I can't remember who it was. But you and House, I think you're intrigued. I'm going to say intrigued.

[A]

I'm intrigued by Philly because I think.

[B]

Skinny Embiid in particular has gotten your attention.

[A]

Oh. Anytime somebody, anytime a big man does the Tim Duncan, you have my interest. Skinny Tim Duncan was one of my favorite. Tim Duncan.

[B]

So you are all in on the the 20, 25, 26 Philadelphia 76ers.

[A]

Yeah, I couldn't less all in. I did one of the things.

[B]

I was trying to trick the trick the aggregators. Simmons. 50 wins coming.

[A]

I think they can win the title. I sent you my top hundred list to look at that I was tinkering with and. And I had Embiid was one of those where I just. Where does it go? I'm not. Does he go. Is he in the 60s? Should he be on the list at all? Should he be like in the top 30? I had him like. Yeah. Because I don't know how many games he's going to play. I don't. If I gave you an over under For Embiid for 40 games, would you go over or under Under? Yeah. So how can he be higher than, I don't know, 65.

[B]

You have him 63rd, one spot behind Rudy Gobert. Continuing just the train. The freight train of Rudy Gobert disrespect. Yeah.

[A]

Honestly, that was just shots at Rudy. There's really no other reason for that. Yeah. So speaking of those finals odds that we mentioned earlier, do we agree Minnesota 20 to 1 is the. The most jarring value bet? That doesn't make sense when you look at all the collection of the rest of the guys or rest of the team.

[B]

Yeah. Cause once you get. Once you get Minnesota and then Atlanta is next and that's sort of the. I mean warriors plus 3000 behind Atlanta and Detroit.

[A]

Can you see that? I could see that, yeah, those are the odds. And I left out a couple teams.

[B]

But, yeah, the warriors aren't there. The warriors are.

[A]

You know why the warriors aren't there? Because I would urge everyone not to bet on the warriors to win the 2026 NBA title.

[B]

I know they're in the west too, which influences all of these, but for them to be behind Detroit and Atlanta.

[A]

By the way, I didn't put Detroit on that list either. I was looking at. Cause guess who's not winning the title this year? Detroit.

[B]

Well, I'm just going on. I'm just looking at fanduel. You edited fanduel's list to fit your, Your, your preferences. I just think Golden State. Plus they were like 25 and 5 with Butler and Stephen. Good. Put a little pull a little respect on Steph Curry's name. That's all I'm saying.

[C]

Sure.

[A]

I listen. They. It took them seven games to beat that flawed Houston team last year. And I don't know what's going to be different as everybody's a year older. Like they're going to be healthier this year. That this is. We go. We went through this with LeBron for the entire 2020. It's like old guys get banged up as the season goes on. This is how it goes. I'm betting on youth every time.

[B]

Look, I have already said the window is closed in my opinion, on this iteration of the. The Steph warriors winning the title. That's close. And I don't. And I don't see a roadmap for them to get back to prominence that does not include a lightning strike trade or free agency signing, which of course is possible. But I think they're in a more precarious position as a franchise than perhaps anyone but their diehardiest diehards realize right now.

[A]

If I gave you Dallas 40 to 1, Boston 50 to 1, San Antonio 55 to 1, and Milwaukee 55 to 1. And I told you one of those teams was going to win the title with those odds, which one would you guess?

[B]

Milwaukee.

[A]

So I had that as well.

[B]

And it's a simple equation. Giannis plus East.

[A]

Yeah. And he gets to the finals, and then it just becomes a best guy in the series. Yeah, you'd probably need some injury luck during the finals on the other team. So when I did my ringer 100 exercise, the sobering part was there were only two bucks in the 100. I had Giannis and Miles Turner and nobody else on the Bucs. Not a good sign for the season. I want to talk about that. Let's take one more quick break and then we'll talk about that. This episode is brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket. Experience the most live NFL action all in one place With NFL Sunday Ticket and YouTube TV, you can watch every game every Sunday all in one place. So you never miss a key moment on the field. And now you can get it monthly. Get NFL Sunday Ticket month to month and cancel anytime. Head to YouTube.com BS to sign up. Local National Games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games excludes Digital only games. Baseplane required renews every month during the 2025 regular season only. Your membership for the following month can be canceled anytime before your renewal date. Terms, restrictions and embargoes apply. Commercial use excluded. This episode is brought to you by NBA 2K26. A favor to my sons and me. All right, quick break. NBA 2K26 stack this year. Gameplay new motion engine, smoother catch and shoot. The rhythm shooting is dialed in. My team added the W so now you can get Caitlin Clark pulling up from deep Larry Bird talking trash mid game. Jokic casually dropping triple doubles. It's absurd in the best way. My career has a whole new storyline. The city's tighter and you're on the court way faster. I've been playing video basketball games. I think the first one was early 80s. I'm stunned. Like when I. When I go and my son's playing with his friends and I go in and I barge my room and I start playing with them. I'm just amazed by how good, how detailed all the games are, how they really look like NBA players. 2K26 is finally here and yeah, it is absolutely loaded. If you care about basketball even a little, you're checking it out today. Ball over everything. All right, we're jumping into a special part of the show brought to you by NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. You know how I feel. This is a must. If you like the NFL. You have to subscribe to NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV. You get every game, every Sunday all in one place. You can watch up to four games at once with multiview, my buddy. So you can never miss a key moment in the field. It's just incredible. And they made me the cmo. They crowned me their chief multi view officer. So it's my job to tell you which games are a must watch this week. Remember local national games on YouTube TV. NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games. A commercial use device and content restrictions apply. Terms and embargoes apply no refunds. This is a perfect day for us because we have an Ireland game, right? The Thursday game with the Ireland game and then they actually staggered the early and the late games perfectly. So we only have seven early games and here are the four that I would target for the multi view. Chargers, Giants, Chargers 3 and oh Jackson darts first start that's a must watch Philly, Tampa. Awesome game we saw in the playoffs last year. Two, three and O teams. Gotta lock that one in Cleveland, Detroit. So Detroit just looked awesome in Baltimore and then Cleveland has the makings of it's a top three defense. We'll see if it travels on the road. I think that's the third one. And then for me personally I would have Pat's Panthers because I'm a Patriots fan, but I think the right choice is probably Washington. Atlanta. We'll see if Atlanta can bounce back from an embarrassing loss to Carolina. Washington on the road indoors, that's just. That's a really good one. So thanks again to YouTube for crowning me their Chief multiview officer. Remember, every game, every Sunday at your fingertips choosing the ones that deserve a spot on the multi view. I take it more seriously than just about anything. Never miss a moment of the action with NFL Sunday Ticket on YouTube TV for a limited time only get $36 off NFL Sunday Ticket using code BS36 at checkout new users only while supplies last ends 9:22 go to YouTube.com BS to sign up now. Local National Games on YouTube TV NFL Sunday Ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games and commercial use. Device and content restrictions apply. Terms and embargos apply. No refunds so I mailed you my preliminary ring 101 of the things I did was I wrote down the teams with how many players they had and I did this last year and it really helped crystallize in my head oh OKC should probably win the title if they can stay healthy because they and this year I have okc with 7 of the top 90 guys sga 2 jalen williams 11, chet 18 and then you still have Dort, Caruso, Hartenstein and Wallace. It's interesting. The only other team that had more than five was Minnesota who I had at five, Anthony Edwards and then 47, 59, 62, 72 and 90. So that's six guys including DeFensenzo who I think is one of the best hundred players in the league and nobody else had more than more than five. Denver I had had five, Knicks five, Houston five. They had six before Van Vliet and Then after that, it's four or less. I think that matters. I think you have to think about the league that way. And if. If somebody has six of the top 90 guys, including a top seven guy, they should be one of the title favorites, in my opinion.

[B]

Look, I mean, I think Minnesota is underrated. We. We agree. I don't have them in the same. I did not have them in the same. Quite in the same. I had them knocking on the Houston Denver tier. I think Denver is better than. Although again, as I've said repeatedly, Minnesota fans, they now have a track record against Denver and against Jokic that could not be dismissed. It could not be ignored as a fluke. There's something there. I think you may have DiVincenzo a little bit overrated. Like, I would take a couple of guys and put them in the top 100 over him, but it's fine either way. Yeah. No lie. I think they're. They're tough as hell. Their defense is going to be solid. I think. You know, I said this last week with Mahoney. I just think there's something structurally just slightly askew with their team that manifests itself at the highest. Like there always seem to be one playmaker short, like half a playmaker short, half a shooter short, or one of each. Just something, you know, and then figuring out the big man rotation among those three guys is always. Is. They're just something like that. Just can't quite click into place with their rotation. But they're very, very good.

[A]

If Dillingham was actually playable and impactful as a bench guy this year, does that change their ceiling for you?

[B]

Sure. And I think Shannon is going to be playable as a bench guy as well. And Clark maybe too. Jalen Clark can. You know, they tried him against Oklahoma City in the conference finals last year. He wasn't quite ready for it, but Shannon was ready. And again, it's Dillingham as the playmaker, the straight line drive guy like that, that's a missing piece for them. But they're just rock solid. Rock fucking solid. It's just their biggest problem. I said this to Mahoney. Their biggest problem is the same problem that everyone else in the west has, is that the Thunder are just incredible and young and only going to be getting better.

[A]

The Thunder, who was hiding the Jalen Williams wrist injury that they never told us about from the last basically three months of the season, including the playoffs. So just from that alone, they're probably going to be better. I think it's funny that these three teams are all in the same division. Okc, Denver, Minnesota. Not that divisions matter, but I'm wondering. They changed. I always forget this. They changed the seeds a little bit. Right. So you could. We could potentially have OKC and. I'm sorry, Denver and Minnesota as the 2, 3, or is that impossible?

[B]

No, I think that's possible. I think division. They've reduced it to like a tiebreaker thing in, like, very rare scenarios.

[A]

So your Minnesota case that you made about how they, how well they've matched up with Denver over the years. That might be our two, three could be right. I assume OKC is going to win it again. Yeah. So going through that top 100, which was just a fun exercise for my brain, I had Denver with number one, 40, 44, 66 and 74. And I would not. I didn't have Michael Porter on my list. So Cam Johnson is basically a free ad for them. Not to mention that Bruce Brown, Hardaway, Valentunas, whatever they can get from the young guys, Watson and Strother this year, I, I think they're the best. I think they're still the best. Bet for the odds right now at +750, them are Minnesota, because you're basically, if you're betting against okc, those would be the two teams I would do it with because I think the winner comes out of the West.

[B]

They took Oklahoma City to seven games last year with Michael Porter Jr. Playing with one arm and a pretty flawed and shallow roster to the point they're like, hey, Julian Strother, can you have like two straight miracle games for us after doing nothing the whole season for us to survive in this series?

[A]

What about Russ, who was just cast aside immediately after, who actually had moments where he played real minutes in that series.

[B]

Unsigned. Unsigned.

[A]

Well, we didn't talk about that. Is there Houston, maybe on that?

[B]

I mean, I wouldn't do it, but they've lived the experience already in a complete. What feels like a completely different league and a completely different universe.

[A]

But do you think there were texts? Raphael Stone and Doka and a couple of people. There was a Russell Westbrook. What are your thoughts?

[B]

I don't think we're on. I don't think so. I don't think so yet.

[A]

Not even a text thread.

[B]

Still too fresh.

[A]

Any interesting on Russ? No. Okay.

[B]

The thing with Denver that's worrisome is in your. In your rank. Not worrisome, but, like, from your rankings perspective is one 40, number one and then the second guy is 40. Like, that's a. That's a lot on number one to. To do that. Like, they need Jamal Murray to play himself back into like the killer playoff guy. Jamal Murray, who was closer to like 20 than 40.

[A]

And I had Orlando and I probably had Fr. I had Franz at I think 49, which is probably too high. I should. I should lower him into the lower 44.

[B]

That was one. That was one of. That was one of my notes. You have. You have Franz below three spots lower than his teammate Jalen Suggs, which I.

[A]

Got to fix that. But Regardless, they have four of the top 50 now with Bain included. So we'll see if the supporting cast can come through. But as you looked at this preliminary list that I laid out and there's.

[B]

Wait, wait, wait. Can we stop for a minute?

[A]

Four of the top 50 for Orlando.

[B]

Yeah. Franz, Paolo, Bain and Suggs. Suggs, Just no brainer. Top 50 player for you.

[A]

I love Suggs. Now the Orlando fans are going to get mad at you.

[B]

Well, that's fine. I mean, there's like 17 of them. They can only do so much damage. I mean, I just want to.

[A]

Their season fell apart when he got hurt last year.

[B]

No, no, no, nobody. I love Gian Suggs. He's great. Like, love everything about him. Love the way he plays. Don't love that he's a career 33% three point shooter. But more than that, I don't love that he played 48 games. 53 games. 75 games and 35 games. Can I get a little bit more availability before I just pencil you in as a top 50 player in the world's greatest basketball league?

[A]

That's all. Would you rather have him Lamelo ball or Tyler Hero this season?

[B]

You're going to make me say it. You're going to make me say it. You're going to make me say it. I'm going with Lamello ball. I'm going down with the ship. It's a fun ship to be on. It's neon green, highlighter yellow. Whatever it is, everyone's dressed funny. I'm going down with the Lamelo ball ship.

[A]

You know, I almost put Knippo in the top hundred. I thought about it because I think he's going to be immediately good.

[B]

I looked for him in the top 20 and I was like, oh, I guess he's somewhere in the 50s or something.

[A]

But they do have four guys with a top hundred case now of knipples. Good, right? So there's at least the signs of something now. I have no idea who their center is going to be. Like, no idea.

[B]

Maybe Knipple small ball five, just jack of all trades.

[A]

There's a Plumlee still on that team.

[B]

There's only one Plumley Saloon.

[A]

Saloon as an undersized center salon. Salon. Whatever they like, they like saloon.

[B]

They like the Kalkbrenner kid that they drafted from Creighton I believe. I think he was a defensive player of the year like multiple times in whatever conference Creighton is in now. If he went to Creighton, I could be completely wrong. He did go to Creighton.

[A]

Yeah. So anyway, with this top hundred to me, Jokic, sga, Giannis, Luka and Edwards have to be the top five in that order. And then the question for me is, is it a top five or a top six? Do you have Wemby in that top tier yet or do you want to see him play a full season and, and be on a team that's above 500 before you give him top level status?

[B]

Well, these are forward looking rankings, right. Like they're. The idea is to project for the season, this season I'm ready to put him in the, in the top six tier. I just think if I'm projecting forward what he's going to be this year and what the spurs can be this year, I'm just like I'm going to put him in there. He's already going to be by some order of magnitude the most destructive and defensive force in the NBA. And so that's like half of the game is played on that end of the floor and he's single handedly dominating it at all times. And so I think the offense will come up a tick on every possible metric and in every possible skill. So I'm going, let's put him in the initial top six tier.

[A]

Okay. Because I do feel like then you go into Mitchell and Brunson and Curry and Cade and I just think Wemby's ceiling is just higher than those guys. Like he could be the destructive kick ass force on a really great team, the Dallas Mavericks. So the three teams before we go, the three teams where I'm like, I don't know what to expect this year. Dallas, Boston and Indiana, where I think those are the teams with, with the most floors in the building between the, the basement and the, and this and the top floor in Dallas. If Kyrie can somehow come back and be pretty competent, March, April range and if flag is as good as I think he's going to be, I think Dallas is going to be really good and I think they're kind of lurking as us going in March like, holy shit, Dallas is good now. So I just think it's notable that their odds were as bad as they were.

[B]

I actually quite like their team. I agree with you that they're hard to project. I think they're more a 2627 team than a 2526 team. Because you led it with Kyrie. I just, I got to see that first because with D low in his spot and the trickle down effect of that to the bench guards, like, I think they. They'll be solid and defensively pretty solid assuming AD stays relatively healthy. I can't get further than that in the West. And also I just like still think that. I still think that they're going to have to figure this out. Is like. Is eight. We really want to play AD at the four for like 75% of his minutes. Do we really think that's a good idea? Because I'm not sure that that's a good idea.

[A]

So they play lively or Gafford with AD and Flag altogether and they're just like nobody's doing anything around 15ft from the basket anymore.

[B]

That's.

[A]

And we're getting all the rebounds.

[B]

That was division when they made the Luca trade, among many other visions that were.

[A]

It's so weird that I kind of like it.

[B]

I don't. I don't mind it. I just think offensively you got to figure out what Anthony Davis is doing besides like spotting up for 18 foot jump shots that no one cares to really defend very hard.

[A]

Are we sure he's still on the team in February?

[B]

Oh, my God. Well, I do. You know, it's like for. I mean, given what they did to get him, I think. I think it would be pretty catastrophic for him to not be on the team, even optically.

[A]

But they didn't know they were getting Cooper Flag when they'd made sure.

[B]

No, they did not.

[A]

What?

[B]

What are you talking about? The vision. That was the vision. What did he say? Like the plan is coming to fruition now for some such.

[A]

Nico did have the vision.

[B]

But I will say, like, I did this whole thing on veteran extensions yesterday and like how difficult it is to suss these out for guys who are making an enormous amount of money. AD is not eligible now. Next summer he is. And I think that becomes one of the most interesting extension cases in the NBA. How do you extend Anthony Davis at age 33 or 32, whatever. He's going to be coming off a $58.5 million contract. Like that's. Or $54 million contract going into a $58 million contract. That's. That's hard, man. That's a big. That's a big, big decision.

[A]

I'd be very.

[B]

For the team that did. For a team that didn't want to pay Luca the supermax, right? Like, that's one of the reasons they got out of the Luca businesses. Like, it's just too much money. So what's AD's next contract going to be?

[A]

And now Luca's built like the Rock is fucking ripped.

[B]

I mean, this was all incredibly predictable, right? Like, this is all we said. I didn't have a job when he got traded. I still said it anyway. Like, if this doesn't light a fire under his ass to get in better shape, to get in the best shape he's ever been in, nothing will. And all of a sudden it's like, oh, here he is on the COVID of freaking Men's Health. Men's Health. Breaking stories. I didn't see that coming. I loved it. It's a great PR strategy. Like, you know what?

[A]

You know who we should go to? Men's Health. Yeah. Who knew? He kind of revived him. I. I'm very excited for the Luka mvp. I know we'll be talking about all season, but Luka never having won the MVP and still being plus 380 on FanDuel when it feels like he's. He would be the favorite for me, I mean, I just don't see a scenario where he's not fucking awesome this season.

[B]

I keep hearing this on podcasts that shall not be named. Like, my sneaky mvp. This is a hot take. I think Luka's gonna be at the center of the MVP discussion. Like, you think. You think? So he's gonna be at the center of the MVP discussion? Yeah.

[A]

Yeah, obviously, like, also, he'll have the narrative. Giannis at 12 to 1 is not. Not intriguing because he could just single hand, they drag Milwaukee to like, 52 and 30 and have the greatest year he's ever had. And plus now with Thanasis at his side, you know, like a bird McHale.

[B]

Type thing, it's really interesting because if Luca puts up his normal numbers over, let's say, 75 games, I mean, those top four guys put up stats where it's like, I. I don't even know what.

[A]

Yeah, they're like brain breakers.

[B]

If Jokic averages 30, 10 and 10 and breaks the efficiency records again, it's like you have to sort of come up with a case against him. And Shay, to his credit, was so outrageously good last year and matched him in all the metrics that he did it. But it's just like when you're talking about, oh, could Cinderella or MVP can. It's like, could Donovan Mitchell play his windu. It's like, I love Donovan Mitchell. Like, it's just a different stratosphere of. Yeah. Of player.

[A]

We saw the best possible MVP campaign from Mitchell last year, and he had no chance. They won 64 games and he was the best guy in the team. And he wasn't even like, I think, like one person.

[B]

It's like Cade. You and I both love Cade. I've always loved Cade. It's like he's sneaky MVP candidate. I'm like, I don't think. Like, I like Cade, but that's maybe sneaky. Fifth ballot spot candidate.

[A]

Do you think there. Is there a Malik Beasley getting signed this year possibility where he just sneaks onto a really good team as a wild card? Have you heard anything about that?

[B]

I have not heard much except that I think that there's a lot of frustration from the players union about how this all unfolded, the timing of it, how it was leaked, where it was leaked, and they're trying to figure out exactly what to do about it.

[A]

But, yeah, because it unquestionably cost him.

[B]

$40 million and he's been cleared, but not really cleared. Like, according to the reporting, he's still being. I don't remember what the terminology was, but they're still looking at him. But he's been. I don't know what it was. So I don't know if that haze is still too thick for teams to look at him. But yeah, I mean, look, it's.

[A]

Before we go, what? What Awkward pre. Oh, we never talked about Boston, Indiana.

[B]

Let's do it.

[A]

Let's do it really quick. Yeah, we talked about Dallas. High ceiling, low floor. Boston, Indiana is weird because we have no idea if they're just going to toss away the season. Halburn's definitely not coming back. Tatum, who knows? The Celtics are saying he's not coming back, but I don't know. You know, it'll be 10 months, like mid right after the All Star break. Right around his birthday, which has been floated around in circles about could he be back on his birthday on March 3rd. That's 10 months from the injury. We've talked in the past about. He had the surgery within 10 hours in New York. Never flew. This would be like the greatest test case for could somebody actually come back and he had the real surgery? Because there's two ways to do it where like Dame had the other type of surgery where they do the. It's like a. Almost like a patch and you can come back faster, but it's not 100%. I think Clay had that too. Tatum had, though. We're fixing this. And if you're the Celtics, you can't not think like, well, what happens if he's 100% and scrimmaging in February and what are we just going to do, not play him? So I don't know the answer to that, and I don't think they do either.

[B]

I just know I would be nervous bringing a guy off an Achilles tear back, let's say mid March. Optimistically, right? Super optimistically. Be like, hey, we're fighting like hell to get into the play in tournament or stay in the play in tournament. Yeah, we're in eight seed and if we do. If we do that, then we're going to play New York in the first round of the playoffs. I just, that that would make me. Make me nervous. I. I'm, you know, I'm lower on Boston and I don't know what they're over under is, but I just think their lack of depth has been. Now they'll turn Minot into something and Garza will get free reign to just chuck threes. I just think they're there. Their depth chart is like a whole bunch of question marks after like the. The six best guys on the team who are good. Who are good. One of whom is Anthony Simons. He's like, do the Celtics even want Anthony Simons? I'm not even sure about that.

[A]

I flew back from Boston on Saturday night and I did my first wave of NBA research on the fight as I watched terrible movies on AMC or terribly good movies, I should say, like Taken.

[B]

What did you see?

[A]

Did you watch movies? I've seen a million times. Taken. What was the old one?

[B]

I've never seen that.

[A]

You've never seen Taken? You have a daughter. It's a must watch if you have a daughter.

[B]

Why?

[A]

It's just a guy trying to save his daughter, but she gets kidnapped.

[B]

It sounds horrible.

[A]

Gets her back. In the end, he kills a thousand Albanians and gets her back. You got to watch it. But yeah. So I laid out the starters and the bench, like the depth chart. And I don't think I must have been in denial or lying to myself, but when I actually saw it laid out, I was like, oh, my. I had Boucher and Hauser in the starting lineup.

[B]

Yeah. When you write it down, you're like, oh, this is what happens.

[A]

Shireman playing one of your three, your.

[B]

Best guy gets hurt, and then we trade two of our other key guys to dump money. Like.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

And Horford is, like, playing for the Warriors. Apparently, at some point, it's like. It's a lot of atrophy.

[A]

Hugo Gonzalez might play like you just. And then Tatum with three question marks, and it's just. It's pretty grim. The good thing for them is they have the infrastructure with the style they're playing, the coaching staff. They have multiple guards that are going to be able to, you know, handle the ball, shoot. Jalen will take 25 shots a game.

[B]

I was. That's what I want to ask you. What do you want to see from Jalen Brown this year? What's like the Bill Simmons just. This was a lost season from a contention perspective, but we learned X, Y and Z about Jaylen Brown, and I'm thrilled about that. What does that look like? Well.

[A]

I thought it was interesting. I looked at the FanDuel points per game leader odds you can bet on. So, like, Shay is plus 165, Lucas five to one. Just. Who's going to lead the league in points per game and Jalen was 50 to 1. Is it. Would it be. If I told you he was going to average 32 a game next season, what would be your reaction to that?

[B]

I would say that that's. I mean, 32. What did Shea average? Shea was about there, but I would say that's a lot. I would say 29 would. Would be a realistic high target to go from 23 and 22 the last two years to 32. Is. Even amid this new.

[A]

What's the highest that he's gotten to.

[B]

26.6 two years ago. Three years ago, right?

[A]

Yeah. So 26. 6 in the 23 season. He took 20 shots a game. If you give him four more shots a game and he makes two of them, I'm now at 30.

[B]

I mean. And you give him more free throws like, he only got the line five times a game that year. That should be higher, too.

[A]

I mean, look, from everything we know.

[B]

About 50 to one's a great bet. 50 to one's a great bet.

[A]

Yeah. From everything we know about Jaylen Brown, whether he's right or wrong, he's definitely going into the season going. I've got this. Until JT Comes back and he's going to. He's going to. We've seen it. We saw it in the games when Tatum didn't play and Jaylen Brown's like finally he's like the understudy in the Hamilton production. Like finally I get to be the Lin Manuel Miranda part. So I don't know. I think they could hang around with three point shooting and I just, I've heard that they, oh, watch out, they're going to tank because they don't they have their pick. I just don't think Missoula is capable of it. The man is a maniac.

[B]

My worry about the Jalen Brown scenario you outline is like the how does he get there? Is he getting there by just taking a shit ton of shots and you end up like he averaged 30 on 44% shooting and 31% from 3 and didn't evolve as a playmaker. Like that's my worry about. That's not a big worry because so.

[A]

You want to see him like the offense is running through him, but he's actually not. Like, I'm just going to shoot a shitload of shots and I'm going to actually set up my guards. We're going to play off, man, I'm going to find open shooters. I'm going to play really smart basketball.

[B]

Like I don't think he's going to turn into a 10 assist a game guy or even a 7 or 8 assists a game guy but like jack it up a little bit and, and yeah, I don't want like if he's just taking a bunch of tough mid range shots the entire season, even more than he usually takes. Like I'm not sure that that's what I want to see. Although he's going to have to do more shooting obviously.

[A]

The Celtics have Boucher and Garza right now as the center combo with some Keda and, and the Boston, the people that cover the team think Kate is going to be the starter. I'll believe that when I see it. But if you compare them to Indiana who lost Halliburton and Turner, I actually think Indiana is a more likely fuck it, let's suck this year candidate, right? Jarris Walker will play so that they could. Maybe he'll fill minutes somewhere because they didn't have him in the playoffs. But other than that, what else do they do?

[B]

Well, they have depth, right? Like they have, they were deep last year so that definitely helped them. Now I, you know, and they signed a like, you know, Jay Huff could, can play 15 minutes a game. Isaiah Jackson's coming back like they have depth. Furfy. I love just saying Furfy. I want Furfy. Little Furfurf the firf man, Furfy. And talk about a Maniac coach who's going to just like scheme his way to 35 wins on a down year like Rick Carlisle. Like, to me, that's the, the down. Like the almost boring Indiana prediction is. I don't know what they're over under is. I'd probably take the under because I just think that their entire identity is wrapped up in one guy who's not going to play. But I could see them being having a down year and it being like 32 and 50 or something like that. I'm lower on them. I just think that what they lost is a lot.

[A]

Who do you think has a higher over under Boston or Indiana for the season?

[B]

Boston.

[A]

Yep. Boston 41 and a half. Indiana is 37 and a half. That's.

[B]

That seems right to me on both counts. I would probably take the under on. Well, we're going to, we're going to do, we're going to do this at some point.

[A]

Indiana 37 and a half and it could really end up being like 22 and 60 if they just said fuck it.

[B]

I don't think it can get to. They'd have to organizationally make a decision of that. Siakam has a fake sprained ankle and you know, trade McConnell and do some stuff because I just think they're going to be tough and nasty and play smart and like Nemhardt and Siakam are good like those. That's not a terrible fallback. Like now we're a 22 win team.

[A]

I mean, so they lose. Halburn, right. Obviously was the top 15 guy, but they are equipped to kind of patch together some of his stats because shepherd, he'll play more. Nemhardt, McConnell, like they could kind of patch together some guard stats. The Turner thing, I don't know how they, I don't know how they've fixed that with Isaiah Jackson and whatever the counter to that would be. Turner was terrible in the finals and was pretty up and down in the playoffs, you know.

[B]

Yeah, he's. He's generally an up and down player. I think he'll fit well with Yanis.

[A]

Like Walker. Should I buy more Walker stock? I already have a bunch.

[B]

I don't think you need to buy that much more if you have a bunch. I would, I wouldn't go crazy.

[A]

I'll keep it up. So you think I, you think Indiana more likely to be like, yeah, let's throw this year away and wait for our guy to come back?

[B]

I don't think either. No, I would say they're less likely because I think they're deeper. And their coach might be more of a maniac than even Missoula is about. Just scheming to win every single possession of every single game.

[A]

What TV shows are you watching.

[B]

Other.

[A]

Than the Mets Disaster.

[B]

Hey, stop. Stop now. We're not out of it yet. What are we watching? We currently. You know, I gotta say, couldn't get her task. No. Too violent for my wife. I would say a couple of things.

[A]

Number one, she's a pacifist.

[B]

She just doesn't like violence. It scares her. She's just out on all the violent shows. Violence and unpleasant suspense. She's just like, I'm not spending my leisure time doing that.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

Number one on the list right now is the Great British Bake Off. Huge fan. I've seen every season. I'm a big fan. Great British Bake Off. Corner might replace Mets corner if the Mets don't make the playoffs. This hurts me a little bit to say I don't know if you watched this show. It was right in our spousal Venn diagram. Only murders in the building. Charm is kind of wearing off on me.

[A]

Never. Never got into it.

[B]

That's. I think that's all we got going right now. Is there. Am I forgetting?

[A]

Are you a morning show family?

[B]

No. No. I'm weirdly uninterested. Should I be interested? Is it preachy? It seems preachy to me. I don't like preachy.

[A]

It is a self parody of a self parody of a self parody. And a very enjoyable hour for my wife and I. Lots of jokes.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

That's probably our number one. Like just. We're making jokes the entire time we're watching that show.

[B]

You're making jokes. The show. We are making jokes.

[A]

No, the show is very serious and they make decisions on the show that you just can't fathom.

[B]

Speaking of funny, one of my. One of the things I just want to show to make me fucking laugh a lot. And I'm missing that in my life. It's like, I want to laugh. I want a joke show. And Joanna Robinson recommended. And we did a whole segment where I was like, here's what my wife's TV taste is. Here's what mine is. Here are a couple shows we really love together. Recommend one for us. And her number one draft choice was Party Down. And we did Party Down. Party down was just rock solid across the ones. Fantastic. The highs weren't that high, but the floor was high. It was pretty funny the whole time. Good recommendation. Joanna.

[A]

The porn party episode is a personal all timer for me, it's one of the funniest half hours of the 2000s. That's a good one.

[B]

That was. That was a good one. Yeah, that was a good show. I mean, that's a short. There's like 20 episodes and they're all short.

[A]

You know, I would test drive morning show season one with the wife because it's also like, they're doing it during this, like, Covid MeToo era, and it's very self conscious about all the stuff's going and they're just clumsily blowing through all these crazy storylines. It's about a morning show, but it's a couple years at behind where We Are. So, like right now they're doing the 2024 Olympics for this, this season, and they're kind of also going back and commentating on. And it's just. It's a. It's a must watch.

[B]

I mean, it's. I see it. I see it. Come up on the TV is like, recommended for you or this and that. And I'm always like, yeah, you know, it could be.

[A]

It's a mess. Could be.

[B]

That's all I got going right now. You're not a Bake off guy.

[A]

My wife likes that show.

[B]

It's a good show.

[A]

I've never been like a cooking show person.

[B]

It's like taken. Neither have I. And I can't cook and I don't like cooking, and I sure as hell don't bake. It's just like stepping into a warm bubble bath. It's so pleasant. Just everything about it is so pleasant. I love everybody on the show, even Paul Hollywood, who's sort of the villain of the show. It's just wonderful. It's just a great time.

[A]

I wanna say Mina Kimes is on that show this year for an episode. I think that's the show she went on. She went on a Cook it. I think that was the show.

[B]

There was an American. There was an American version, like an American knockoff. Same franchise, like, same people that maybe that would be very. If she suddenly appears on the actual Great British Baking show filmed in a tent in England somewhere. I'm gonna go crazy.

[A]

Okay. Zach Lowe, Good to see you. We have your podcast. It's at least twice a week. Sometimes there'll be emergency episodes if Giannis gets traded to the Rockets. You'll probably hear from Zach. You can find it on YouTube.

[B]

Just dropping that at the end of a podcast.

[A]

Who knows if something crazy happens. Good to see you as always.

[B]

Always fun. Sir.

[A]

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[D]

2012.

[A]

When did you move here? 2012. So there was an article today about Las Vegas is doing this big five day sale. They tweeted it out from the this is not sponsored by Las Vegas by the way. Big sale, hotels, restaurants, everything off. And the reason they're doing it is because Las Vegas, the tourism has really declined. And I was on a couple different text threads about this because we all thought it was really interesting. What's going on with Las Vegas? What has changed over the last 30 years? What are the reasons why tourism post Covid where all this other stuff, boom. Movie theaters are doing great, people are back at sporting events, all normal life stuff. Feels like it's back and Vegas is in bad shape. So why? What's your theory?

[C]

Cr Gosh. I mean, where do you want to start? I think Vegas is pretty unique in that it's one of the only places you would go to lose More money. And so it's not just the price of the hotel and the price of the restaurants and the price of valet parking and the price of everything. Then you are also pricing in. I might get cleaned out, and I might not be able to help myself. And if you can gamble on sports, at least pretty much anywhere, and there's obviously, like, friendly games everywhere you want to go, making that trip and chalking up, you know, you can either lose the flight and the hotel, or you can go somewhere nice and not have to lose thousands of dollars gambling, I think people are just making that choice. But there's also, like, a ton of other reasons. Like, think of Sean.

[A]

You still road trip down there to poker every so often.

[C]

I feel like once a year I do.

[D]

For 10 years. I went every November to see friends because one of my best friends lives there. And this is kind of related to some of my thoughts about it. I still think it's fun to go there. I do think it is a little bit hard to gamble in the way that I like to gamble there. And obviously, sports betting has changed a lot, too. So the idea of it being a destination for sports betting has gotten complicated over the years. But the thing that struck me, I'm not saying this is the primary reason, but it is a reason. When the Golden Knights went there and it started to become a destination home for professional sports, it started to feel more like any other city. And when I was driving in a couple of years ago and I saw a legion on the way in, you know, right when you're coming in into the. Into the Strip and a legion is on the left there, and it was a football stadium, and it was like driving into Chicago or driving into Philly. And it lost the kind of glamour, the kind of uniqueness that made Vegas Vegas, where Vegas was really only one thing. You didn't even really think about Vegas as a place where people lived. When you visited, you visited, and you were like, everybody here is in a hotel and we're all gambling.

[A]

Yeah. I remember hearing somebody lived in Vegas and be like, what? Yeah, they live in Summerlin. What it's like every day they're here. How do they survive?

[D]

But when a city has sports teams, it's a town, it's a residential place. You know, it's a place where there is a fandom. There is like a. There's a community of people that live there. There's nothing wrong with it becoming a community, but it feels different. It gives it a different energy, and it feels like a factor as to why it's not as unique or special to go there as Maybe it was 10 or 50 years ago.

[A]

Yeah. I have so many. I, I think those are both really good reasons. I also feel like, because I started going there mid-90s, right. And it was. I'm not saying it was underground, but it was just. You went. You shared a hotel room with two people or four people. You didn't really care about where you ate at all. It's like, let's go get two slices of pizza, let's go the buffet.

[C]

Or even if you're treating yourself, you're going to get a steak.

[A]

Yeah. For people in their 20s and their 30s, the ancillary stuff never mattered. It was like, where are we gambling? How much blackjack are we playing? Are we playing poker? Are we playing craps? All your money kind of went toward the gambling part, at least for my groups or everything I saw. And nobody was ever like, we gotta go to Rao's tonight. I heard it's awesome. Like, you didn't think that way. You didn't think like, we're this three hour dinner.

[C]

How about, we're gonna go see Adele? You know what I mean?

[A]

Now, granted, I am in a very small, like, I, you know, I was like giant sports fan. Like, we would go. We really wanted to just gamble, but we never cared about the other stuff. Like one, we would. You maybe ride the roller coaster once.

[D]

I think people would go and they would want to go see Wayne Newton. Or like when we went, older people.

[A]

Not the people in their 20s or 30s, were going for specific things. It's like, I can gamble on sports here. I can play blackjack with my friends here. I can play poker, I can play craps.

[D]

Well, the other thing I started noticing probably maybe 20 years ago is that the casinos were kind of turning into malls. And so there were really these big shopping centers that were coming in there. And a lot of those spaces are really nice. But it's like, why? Like, I don't. I'm not going to go to the Prada store. When I'm at a casino. I'm at a casino to play, to play cards. Like, that's the only reason I'm there, is to drink, see my friends, play cards, maybe swim in the pool and eat at the buffet. That's all I'm really going to do. Even as not forget about my 20s and my 40s. That's all I care about. But it is more of a, like, it's kind of like a glamour, high toned destination in a way. But it is still in the middle of the desert. So it doesn't really make sense as, like, why would you go. Wouldn't you go to Hawaii if you were trying to have a vacation like that? Like a really expensive, nice vacation?

[C]

I think now it's like, if you want to party, people go to New Orleans or Austin or Nashville or all sorts of place. Miami kind of, you know, like, has had two or three peaks in the time that Vegas has become. Was the destination of all bachelor parties and going clubbing and also gambling.

[A]

Well, now it's like, there's the F1 weekend. There's the sports teams that are there. There's NBA summer league. There's then NBA, the actual, like, the cup thing.

[B]

And MLB is going to be big.

[A]

Boxing, UFC, the MLB's gonna be there. WNBA is there. So there's sports and big stuff happening constantly, which is better if you live there than if you're visiting. If I'm visiting. And I've always wondered this, like, you know, you go for NBA cup, right? And it's summer league, whatever. And we went there for 2018, 2019, and we did a dinner, right? Then you'd have this huge dinner. You're stuffed. It's not the kind of mood you're like, yeah, now let's go gamble. I just wonder, did something shift where the gambling became ancillary, and then the books and the places realized that, and that's when they started shifting the odds against live check, six to five payouts for blackjack. And I just feel like it's harder to win, as weird as that. Sounds like I have much more fun gambling in New Orleans. New Orleans. I feel like I might actually win in Vegas. I just. I feel like I'm this cog in the machine that's just going to get crushed.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

I'm not really, like, such an expert on all of the table games there, but it does feel like it's easier to get crushed now than it did in the past.

[A]

Yeah. I'm telling you, I don't. I don't think luck turns that much over 30 years. Well, there was more fun. Like, now it just seems like they just want you to lose money and get you the fuck out of it.

[C]

I don't know if this is, like, I don't. We don't have to get into a huge discussion about, like, how much private equity is bought into these places and what kind of returns they want on investment. But, like, I do think in the last couple of years, especially, like, since COVID when everything went, like, Pretty much contactless with payments. I wonder if they are pumping people more now because of, like, just tap your card. Just tap your card. Just tap your card. You want to go do this, do this. Just tap. And I used to be like, I remember the first time we went to Vegas together, and I was like, I had money in an envelope, and I was like, if I tear this envelope open, that's it. Like, that's not. That's all the cash I'm gonna spend gambling tonight or something like that. And now we have kind of reached this sort of like, just. Just forget about it until tomorrow. And maybe it's tomorrow for a lot of people, and they're like, I can't fucking afford to go to Vegas. Because the. The big thing about all these events in this country now, like, when you go. I went to the Dodgers this week. It was an awesome time. Went and saw Phillies, Dodgers. I got pumped, man. It's like 40 bucks for two beers, another 35 for, like, hot dogs and peanuts. And then it's. That's not even, like, parking and everything else.

[D]

And you're just like, Blu Ray money.

[C]

Yeah. But you're also just like, it's like.

[A]

Seven Blu Rays, dude.

[C]

That's several hundred dollars. Not counting the tickets. Like, that's. That's crazy. It's baseball. Like, the game's not even that long anymore.

[D]

It's a good example of. I feel like Vegas was seen, especially if you lived on the west coast, as a cheap vacation, you know, and you might end up losing a lot.

[C]

Of money, but you could drive there.

[D]

But staying there and driving there and the accommodations, and now things are just very elevated. I mean, there's some amazing hotels and amazing restaurants in Vegas now. Like, Vegas has gotten really, really tony.

[A]

And, I mean, I'd say it's one of the best restaurant locations in the world at this point.

[C]

They have every allure for a while there. Like, you go. And if you're gambling, the drinks are comped, and if you stick around long enough, you'll get, like, a comp dinner or breakfast ticket.

[A]

Right? Like, yeah, it was just way more underground. The sportsbook piece can't be understated either, because I don't know how many states have legalized gambling now where you can bet somewhere. And, you know, when. When I was. The first time, I can't remember if it was 95 or 96. The first time we went. That was the number one reason I wanted to go. It was like, we're gonna go.

[D]

Yep.

[A]

And we're gonna put and then we'll watch the game in the sports book, and then we'll make the money, and then we'll put that on something. And that was all we wanted to do, was stay in that sports book for two days and watch all the games. And now it's like, there's nothing special about that madness.

[C]

Or, like, the first weekend of NFL playoffs or whatever. And now it's like guys sitting at a bar, like, ambiently betting women's tennis, like, putting parlays on, like, 19 college football games on a random Saturday.

[A]

I almost. When I did my second book, which ended up being about basketball, I almost did a Vegas book as my second book. And then I almost did it again as the book after. And I just. I felt like something shifted from the mid-2000s even to the early 2010s, where I'm like, this isn't as good of an idea for a book anymore. Vegas had, like, this. I used to write about it a lot. I was some of the. Especially on my old website. That was, like, some of the pieces that really got the website kind of moving with audience. And then when I got to espn, same thing of, like, this whole scene in Vegas and just. Just like, you know, basically two. You have two days. You have a certain amount of money. Yeah. There's. You have this anvil hanging over your head the whole time. You only want. You can only go to the ATM one time a day.

[D]

The swingers thing, where they embarrass themselves. But that was aspirational to me.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

When I saw that, even though those guys. Buffoons, I was like, this is so cool. They just drive there. That's amazing. I was there in April for Cinemacon, and we were. You know. And Cinemacon at night is so great for me because I can just like, wander around, play cards.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

And we sat at the sports book, me and Craig and Amanda and Matt Bellamy, we sat at the Sportsbook for like, an hour and a half waiting to go see David Copperfield. So we're gonna go see Copperfield. Never seen him before. And it was. It was dead. It was a Thursday night in April. So you've got NBA playoffs.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

Mlc, MLB has just started. And you've got college sports on. And there were four people there.

[A]

Yeah. I remember when they built Mandalay, and Mandalay seemed like the future, you know, had this huge sportsbook, big casino. Just felt very modern. And you could see, like, all of a sudden, they were. You know, they. I can't remember when Paris went up, but the casinos just got Way better. We used to stay at Treasure island in the mid-90s. And then gradually things got better. And then there was this moment when they started the whatever happens in Vegas ads. And enough people were talking about the culture of it that something really happened. I think it kind of peaks with the Hangover in 2009 that Vegas is such a big part of that movie, and that's kind of the peak. And now I don't. Now, if you did a movie in Vegas, I don't. I don't even think it would be important that it was in Vegas. Like, oh, there's Vegas.

[C]

I wonder whether or not there is. Like, if you think of Vegas as like a big. A musical artist or a band.

[A]

Right.

[C]

And there's always the question that they face where it's like, do you want your audience to get older with you or do you want to leave them behind? And if you're talking about your guys specifically, because Vegas has just been. It's not been a huge part of my life, but for you guys, it's like, there. There was, like, the degenerate gambling part. Then there was the what happens in Vegas? And it's fun to do a bachelor party there. And now it's almost like, bring your whole family to Vegas. Yeah, but you can't really do that. Like, you. I mean, you wouldn't do that. You would take them to Disney World. You wouldn't want your little kid at the win. You know, we did a.

[A]

Me and Sal and our. And our fams. We did a Vegas trip in 06, and it was this whole different side of Vegas where it's like, oh, they have stroller ramps and shit like that.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

And it was fun, but, you know, I think it's fun for Sal and.

[C]

Also be stroller ramps.

[B]

Right, right.

[A]

But I think it's more fun for Sal and I. Maybe not as much fun for the. For the wives, but I think Vegas is a little more built toward it now. There's another piece of this now about people in their 20s and 30s and what they're doing day to day and whether you need to go to a place like Vegas in the same way that you did when I was in my mid-20s in 1995, where it was like, we didn't have a shitload of options for things to do other than to just go out where you were. It's like, whoa, we're going to Vegas now. It's like, I don't know. I just wonder, do people. Do people in their 20s, do they want to go out and just gamble for 10 hours.

[C]

I mean, I think even beyond the generalization of it, it's just way cheaper to go to New Orleans. If you were going to do a party trip.

[A]

Is there just more options now? Is there more stuff to do?

[D]

Yeah, I think Vegas has never actually had more that you can do in Vegas, but it does take a little bit of the spotlight off of the gaming. I remember very well in 2019, I had a meetup with a lot of friends in Vegas. It was basically like my high school reunion. Me and like 10 guys. And I vividly remember it was like 8pm we'd ate dinner, we grabbed a drink and we were like, let's go gamble for a few hours before we do whatever happens after that. And six of us went to go play Pai Gow and we got absolutely skull fucked by a deal.

[A]

That's like an amazing day.

[D]

We just got absolutely annihilated and Pai Gow. The whole thing with Pai Gow is like, it's very communal. It's kind of low stakes. You should be able to sit at a Pai Gow table and play for like an hour, two hours if you want and only lose like a hundred bucks or gain a hundred bucks or whatever. And we just got our guts ripped out. And I remember feeling like maybe we shouldn't gamble for another 24 hours after that. After guys are dropping like $700 at a Pai Gow table. And it was deflating. It wasn't fun, you know. And then now, ever since then, all those guys had kids and now nobody goes to Vegas anymore. That's the other thing that happened. But if it's ever going to make a comeback, it's not going to be defined as like a gambling trip. I don't think it's going to be a different version. It's going to be like, let's go eat at great restaurants and go to the pool with our kids.

[C]

This pop star has a residence.

[D]

Exactly. Go see Selena Gomez.

[C]

I just think it has to decide, is it for degenerates or for everyone? You know, is it for this is my secret shame or like this is what I look forward to all year. It's like my weekend.

[A]

Honestly, I think Vegas already decided. I think that's part of the problem. They want to be for everybody. They want to have the best restaurants and the best entertainers. The sphere is a huge piece of this now. You go to Vegas for the experience of the Sphere. Instead of 25 years ago, you went because it's Like, I just want to play blackjack with my buddy Jim Grady for eight straight hours. And that's what, that's what we want to do now. It's like we're going to the sphere because so and so is playing there. And then we're going to go to, you know, the WrestleMania is two days later.

[C]

Chang has a restaurant there.

[A]

Yeah, yeah. It's just different.

[D]

A friend of mine is pitching a project to the Sphere right now and he was telling me about it and it sounds like a really cool thing. I hope it happens for him. But that becoming like a billion dollar industry too, it just takes all of the attention off of the other things that you think of as Vegas being Vegas. Like the idea of going to Vegas to go watch a movie in a giant circle is crazy. But people are doing it.

[C]

I wonder how many people who go to the sphere or go say to a UFC fight, then also gamble. Like, I wonder how many, like how it's reoriented.

[A]

Interesting. Because UFC ends around. It's like 11 starts 7 to 10. So you're basically, you're out of there. It's like 10:30 at night. So at that point you're either doing late dinner or you're just going to gamble. But either way, like you're. It's just not that. Not what it would have been 30 years ago. Same thing for the, when the NBA cup was there.

[D]

When we need to get another you house Sal and Chang session though, at the tables. I do feel like that's some of the all time best BS pod.

[A]

That was like some of the best content we've ever had. But I feel like that, like even that feels like it's from another era.

[C]

Still feel like I was at the Blue Note, watching, watching guys play. Like when I watched him and Chang bought.

[A]

I think Vegas would probably say this is, this is what we wanted. Like, we have way nicer casinos, we have a million restaurants, we have all these different teams and all these different places to see live events. Like this is. We had to elevate everything we're doing. And at the same time, they're having a massive sale right now to get people to come because tourism's way down. So something got broken and I don't even really know what the answer is.

[D]

But there are other factors. I mean, there was a terrible shooting there that happened. That chilled a lot for a little while. I don't know. It's like I don't really believe in the younger people. Don't want community thing though. I think it's kind of the opposite. And gambling, that's a fun road trip to take with your friends to go for 48 hours and go six, eight people and go have fun. But it might just be too expensive is really what it might come down to.

[C]

That's what I think it is.

[D]

It might just be like, I can't.

[A]

Afford my number one reason.

[C]

And it's hidden costs. It's like the things where you're just like, whoa, like $65 a day to valet park or whatever.

[B]

It.

[C]

I. I'm sure that there are, like, more affordable hotels that I'm thinking of that have better deals.

[A]

I'm just saying that's why I led with what it costs. When we used to go and we would go four to a room, I always used to. I've told this story before. I always used to share a bed with my buddy Bish because we had mastered how to, like, never have our bodies touched, ever. I went one way, he went the other way.

[D]

But we'd, you know, Sierra Lexico go dick to dick.

[A]

Sierra goes face to face. But, you know, all we were thinking about with everything other than the gambling was how to save as much money as possible. Like, we never wanted to spend more than $10 on dinner. We'd be like, oh, that place has chicken. You know, it was all the money went toward not being there at one in the morning, out of money while our friends were still playing, being like, well, what the fuck am I gonna do now? I hit my limit.

[D]

But you were in a strain of degenerate, where it was like, this is the most important thing in the world today.

[A]

But he really was.

[C]

He built Oasis in the desert.

[A]

Became my oasis.

[B]

You did.

[D]

You were like Ace Rothstein in casino.

[A]

So you said, like, you wonder if young people that they don't care about having the community. And I think they do.

[D]

No, I think they do.

[A]

I think they do.

[D]

I just think I should be too fond.

[A]

Better ways.

[D]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

Exactly. You can find a community fucking online with people you didn't even meet. It. Us going to Vegas, all hanging out together, and then all the stories we would have from all the crazy. The dealers and the crazy person that sat at a table. We would be talking about it for three weeks after now. I mean, there's so many dopamine fixes. You can get 20, 25 online and however else. I don't think it's the same.

[D]

I think you hit on something that is. How do I make this sound? Not like I'm just gold or something, but when I was a teenager, and I'd never been to Vegas. We never took a family vacation to Vegas. I had an idea of what Vegas was like in my head, Right. And it was. It probably was more like casino, right? It was like, we're going to the Flamingo. We're wearing suits, and Don Rickles is there, and he's performing.

[A]

Yeah.

[D]

The Rat Pack is around. And then you get to Vegas, and it is not that.

[B]

Right.

[D]

It's not glamorous in the 2000s and in the 2000s. Like, it is a little bit more broken down and has a charm to it that you can get really interested in and you can, like, discover where are the good places to eat and where they're good places to go, where the right. What are the right rooms for the games that you like to play. And then it did start to flip. Guess right around the 2010s, where it started to get more elevated, and you lost a little bit of that, like, social culture. That was an interesting part of it. Conversely, if you're a kid now, you can see what everything is like online. Like, even just Yelp alone reveals, like, what those hidden worlds. Like, when we were in the 1990s, I had, like, Encarta, and that's how I learned information on my computer. Like, that was. There were no, like, photos or reviews, let alone YouTube and, like, tours and, like, the way that you can conquer, like, Disney world now on YouTube, and they just show you every single thing inside of it.

[A]

Yeah, it's a good point.

[D]

When you went to Disney World when you were five, you were like, is this place actually magic?

[C]

But crucially, like, Disney now is like, don't worry about any of that stuff, because if you pay enough, you can skip one. And I think that that is, like, another thing where people are like, is there any limit to how much I'll get charged to do something? That used to just be. You pay this thing to get in the gate, and then everything inside is sort of, like, more or less set up fairly for you. I mean, things were always expensive. But I do think that there's something weird about, like, when you look at your bill from, like, you stay at one of the hotels, you're just like, what the fuck are all these, like, towel fees and resort fees and, you know, parking fees, and you're just like, I didn't use this parking. Like, why am I getting charged for this? Or something like that. There's just, like, a lot of crazy stuff there.

[D]

Yeah. All the porn you ordered.

[C]

That's right.

[A]

Like, I was like, and this is all part of my platform when I become the governor of Nevada. That's right, yes.

[B]

I don't really.

[A]

I wish I had a better answer for what Vegas should do, but I think they're so far down the road with what they became. I don't know if there's a way to unwind.

[C]

This should just all be the sphere of, you know, they just fear on.

[A]

Top of it, they might just have to triple down and, like, definitely get an NBA team and. And maybe it's like a. It's not a destination place as much as a place you actually live, but then you're just.

[D]

Then it's just Houston, you know, like.

[A]

But I think that's what's happening.

[C]

Have you been to a Raiders game there?

[A]

Yeah, I've been to. I've been there a bunch of times. I've seen WrestleMania.

[C]

Is there any vibe at the Raiders games? Is there any atmosphere?

[A]

You know what? I've been to the Raiders arena. I haven't been to a Raiders game, but I've been to WrestleMania there. I went to SummerSlam there.

[D]

It looks like an awesome stadium. I'd love to go.

[A]

Great.

[C]

I think a fair amount of people moved there in the last five years. I think I'll continue to grow. I'm sure in 15 years it might be, like you said, like a Houston kind of place, but it's in a weird moment of transition.

[D]

It's so funny. My buddy Tony, who's lived there for years and years, and we went to high school together, and he's been a lawyer there for over a decade, he just got engaged. Shout out to Tony. Congratulations. He waited a long time.

[A]

Love Tony did it.

[D]

And him getting engaged is kind of like a little mini metaphor for Vegas, you know, it's like he finally settled down. I feel like the city has kind of settled down. It's kind of like we're done being the crazy uncle, you know, like, we're ready to be a normal American.

[C]

We're the Dead & Co. Also, maybe.

[A]

In the 2000s, we didn't want a crazy uncle anymore. I wanted a crazy uncle. But maybe most people.

[D]

What's the candidate for next great crazy uncle city? Like, what could just go.

[A]

Absolutely pieces of Vegas, but it'll never be. Like, people that Nashville, I think, has gotten a lot of steam. I thought New Orleans is still awesome. That's the funny thing about New Orleans, like, compared to Vegas, I feel like New Orleans is exactly the same from when I was there, like, for the PAT Super Bowl. Like, it. It just like, same kind of restaurants. The food's the same, the casinos in that one spot in the middle. And when I go, I almost feel like, in a good way, I'm going back to like, yeah, a time warp of like, oh, I fucking love New Orleans. When I go back to Vegas, I'm like, I'm always noticing stuff. They added.

[C]

You have sensory chaotic.

[A]

How chaotic it was. There's just every single chef has a restaurant there now, including our friend Chang as a couple. And they're just adding, adding, adding. They build a fucking F1 track. They're going to have like, you know, this. This awesome basketball arena. And on and on and on it goes. So it's. To me, it's less of a destination and more like, ah, maybe she's actually live there. If you live there, you're not going to gamble as much. Which is why they're giving sales turn.

[C]

Into a Martian, because it's 115 degrees there.

[A]

But yeah, I do part of me.

[D]

That's why I go in November, though. The weather is unbelievable in November.

[A]

It's also.

[D]

November's beautiful to be there.

[C]

What's your maximum amount of time you can spend in Vegas in any one trip?

[D]

I mean, when we went for CinemaCon, it was three and a half days. And I was like, this is a long trip. I got to get out of here.

[A]

30 hours.

[C]

Like 36 hours.

[A]

I did, I think six days once when my first year for page two, right as my column was taking off, I convinced them to send me for the Rahma and Lewis sequel fight. And it was 2001. I went early. I covered the fight. I'd always wanted to cover a fight like a real writer and did the whole thing, went to the fight. But that weekend, my boys came and we had a little Vegas weekend. And then I staged the Skipper for that. It was the first time I was like, oh, I can use.

[D]

I got dinner.

[A]

Then use this Disney money. I can charge stuff.

[C]

John Walsh is like, bill, I have some questions.

[A]

So by Sunday, I had bronchitis.

[D]

I'm seeing a Spearman rhino charge here.

[A]

What is this? By Sunday I had bronchitis. The Pats played the Rams. That was the year the 2001 Pats won the Super Bowl. Played the Rams. We lost, but we kind of hung. And I watched in a sports book. I'm just coughing up oysters. And it was day five and I was like, I might, like, die because I had done Vegas the way you would do it if you're there for two Days for five straight. I couldn't handle it.

[D]

Do you feel like. If one thing I have noticed is it does feel healthier in the casinos now than it did.

[A]

Way less cigarette smoke. Yeah, yeah, no question. Sorry, C. No, it's all right.

[C]

I. All the guys who go for summer league who are like, I've been here for 13 days, they all turn into Martin Sheen in Apocalypse Now. They're all just like day 10. I can't believe I'm still in the fucking aria.

[B]

You know, like the horror.

[A]

The horror there is. I am really nostalgic for the old. Even like in that scene in Swingers, that really was what going to Vegas was like. You went in, it was super boring to get there. You got there, it was great. It was kind of, you know, kind of, kind of low scale, discount Y. Then there was like a couple aspirational casinos, like, someday we'll gamble there. I don't know if that still exists.

[C]

I think Sean drove me out there once and I think in my mind I still thought because in Swingers, it's like they leave and then. Yeah, there's like the like, we're not there yet scene, but it feels like it takes place in like an evening.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

And we drove out there and it was. The drive back was even worse because you drive into the sun driving back.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[C]

And we just listened to Rage against the Machine and I was like, I'm never driving again. I'm flying next time.

[D]

Yeah, I still like to drive.

[C]

It's like a sneaky long drive, though.

[D]

Yeah, not if you're Bill Simmons.

[C]

No, that's true. Wait, aren't you guys.

[A]

329 was my. Was my record.

[C]

What's your record?

[D]

It's in that zone. It's in that. It's in that realm.

[C]

You're like that time right here, you.

[A]

Get really lucky when it goes from three lanes to two.

[C]

Like there's an interesting.

[D]

That's also. If you go at night, that's better. Obviously, if you try to leave at 9am on a Sunday, it's hell no.

[A]

You either have to leave from LA, like 9, 9:30am or late 8:00pm, right, 9:00pm because if you. If you're hitting the traffic for rush hour either way at any point. But. Yeah, well, we'll see.

[D]

I'm not. I'm not giving it up though.

[A]

How about this? Vegas, come invite us and let us out. Let us help you with some ideas. Yeah, yeah, we're available.

[D]

Yeah, I. I'm. I'm willing to take Adele's spot.

[A]

I think if I was like, if they hired us to be like, all right, give us your pitch. What are we doing wrong? What are we missing? Be like, you're not giving stuff for the people in their 20s and 30s who don't have a shitload of money, who want to go for the weekend and don't want to get bankrupted because they can't afford to go to Rails.

[C]

There is a wellness bar and hot yoga and stuff like that. But people are like, I don't come to Vegas to get well.

[D]

You would help design the AI assisted virtual porn chambers, though.

[B]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

The sportsbooks are not going to be the same.

[B]

What can you do?

[A]

That's a loss that's over. It'll just never be there.

[D]

The Ringer 107 has replaced that, unfortunately.

[A]

Well, unfortunately for the picks we've had too. Sean, Chris, great to see you.

[D]

Thanks, Bill.

[A]

All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to Zach Lowe. Thanks to Sean and Chris as well. Thanks to Gahao and Eduardo. I am going to be back on Thursday with, with one more podcast and we'll do a lot of football. And I got to dig myself out of a pretty, pretty, pretty brutal start to the gambling season. I'm not worried. We've had our backs to the wall before. We'll be fine. But I will see you on.

[B]

Must.

[A]

Be 21+ in President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 + in President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem call 100 Gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-887-897777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gambling helpline ma.org or call 800-327-550 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York.